Analyst Presentation

Analyst Call
Fiscal 2010 and Outlook
Frankfurt,
March 28th, 2011
Overview 2010 – Key figures
Revenues in line with management forecast, strong order intake development
EBIT margin increased from 3.5% to 4.0%
Operating cash flow more than doubled from EUR 9.6 mn to EUR 20.3 mn
• Improvement due mainly to reduced working capital outflow
Balance sheet
• Net cash position EUR 24 mn, gross liquidity EUR 141 mn
• Equity ratio almost stable at 38% (2009: 41%)
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Income statement 2010
In EUR mn
Q4/10
Q4/09
2010
2009
YoY ∆ in %
Sales
357.9
368.8
972.0
1,182.8
(17.8)
Total revenues
373.5
341.5
1,007.9
1,144.2
(11.9)
Cost of materials
(283.2)
(260.4)
(748.2)
(883.7)
(15.3)
90.3
81.1
259.7
260.5
(0.3)
12.9
Gross profit
(32.4)
(27.0)
(119.4)
(105.8)
(7.7)
(4.2)
(22.5)
(18.0)
25.0
(27.4)
(31.8)
(77.7)
(96.7)
(19.6)
EBIT
22.8
18.1
40.1
40.0
0.3
Net financial result
(2.1)
(2.1)
(7.3)
(5.2)
40.4
EBT
20.6
18.2
32.8
34.8
(5.7)
Tax
(7.9)
(4.0)
(11.6)
(10.6)
9.4
Net profit
12.7
14.2
21.2
24.2
(12.4)
Personnel costs
Depreciation
Other operating exp./inc.
Strong Q4 with revenues of EUR 358 mn
Revenues down 18% in 2010, partly because Nordex decided to decline some very low
margin contracts
Gross margin rose from 22.8% to 25.8%
EBIT of EUR 40 mn at previous year’s level
3
Inventories and working capital 2010 vs. 2009
Inventories in EUR mn
WC including reservation fees (WC to total revenues)
Stable development of inventories during 2010
Build-up of working capital compared to previous year primarily a result of preliminary
work completed for orders currently under way or for future projects
Working capital ratio increased to 24.3% (2009: 18.4%), due to lower sales volume
4
Cash flow statement 2010
In EUR mn
2010
2009
Net profit
21.2
24.2
Depreciation
22.5
18.0
4.8
5.4
(34.0)
(44.4)
5.8
6.4
Cash flow from operating activities
20.3
9.6
Cash flow from investing activities
(58.7)
(46.5)
Cash flow from financing activities
16.3
84.6
Change in liquidity from cash flows
(22.1)
47.7
Liquidity beginning of period
159.9
111.7
3.3
0.5
141.1
159.9
Change in provisions
Change in working capital
Other cash inflow from operating activities
Other
Liquidity end of period
Operating cash flow more than doubled from EUR 9.6 mn to EUR 20.3 mn
Investments in extension of German and American production facilities completed > no
further impact on investing cash flow expected
Significant investment in product development planned CAPEX around EUR 70 mn
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Balance sheet 2010
In EUR mn
2010
2009
30.3
22.4
Trade payables
177.7
85.7
Prepayments received
126.1
138.2
Other current liabilities
142.7
140.9
476.8
387.2
Non-current bank borrowings
86.4
77.9
Deferred tax liabilities
12.6
11.6
Other non-current liabilities
40.4
15.9
370.8
347.8
987.0
840.4
2010
2009
Liquid funds
141.1
159.9
Current bank borrowings
Trade receivables
and future receivables
269.5
187.2
Net inventories
279.0
247.4
54.4
56.9
744.0
651.4
32.9
34.5
210.1
154.5
Other current assets
Current assets
Deferred tax assets
Other non-current assets
Current liabilities
Shareholders‘ equity
Total assets
987.0
840.4
Total assets
Net cash position EUR 24 mn, gross liquidity EUR 141 mn
Equity ratio almost stable at 38% (2009: 41%)
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Accounting for long-term customer contracts (PoC-method)
New IFRS standard for revenue recognition expected in Q2/2011
Based on draft version of the new standard Nordex has investigated the possible
impact of the new standard on the 2010 accounts* and 2011 guidance:
2010: Very low impact on sales and EBIT
2011: positive impact on sales up to 10%, EBIT up to 50 bps
* Assuming adoption of new standard for the whole of 2011 and restatement for 2010
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Wind market development 2010
New installations decreased slightly
Tough financing situation and growing budget deficits in individual
countries; promising developments in new markets (e.g. Turkey)
Germany: Accelerated exit from nuclear power being considered;
possible increased funding and support for wind power
Market share in new installations 2010: 14.3% (second largest
market)
Installed capacity decreased from 9,996 MW to 5,115 MW
(- 48.8%)
Lack of long-term, reliable federal policy; low electricity demand
from industry and low gas prices
Market share in new installations 2010: 46.1% (largest market )
Installed capacity increased from 13,803 MW to app. 16,500 MW
(+ 19.5%)
Market share of non-Chinese producers: 11%
Shift to cooperation agreements with Chinese partners possible trend
Source: GWEC February 2011
8
New installed capacity is expected to grow by almost
14% per year until 2015
Market outlook 2011–2015 in GW
64
Forecast
58
15
53
48
40
33
Americas
11
34
CAGR: 16%
14
12
13
9
CAGR: 12%
7
Asia
Europe
10
10
10
13
2009
2010
2011e
2012e
15
16
18
2013e
2014e
2015e
CAGR: 13%
Source: MAKE Consulting March 2011; grid-connected capacity; total including RoW
Overall CAGR 2010-2015: 13.5%
Recovery of new installations expected in US / Europe from 2011/12 onwards
Asia-Pacific -mainly China- will account for the largest share of new installations
The share of offshore installations is expected to rise from 9% in 2010 to 23% in 2015
9
The N-ergize 2012 programme
Cost savings per WTG
Targets
100%
Short-term: Compensate for pricing pressure
seen in 2010 and raw material risks
Mid-term: Improvement of profitability
<85%
Total cost
today
Savings
2011
Additional cost
reductions
2012+
Target
Programme to reduce purchasing costs and improve manufacturing efficiency in the
2.5 MW class; estimated 15% reduction in manufacturing and installation cost per
turbine by end 2012
By the end of 2011 Nordex can achieve 2/3 of planned savings
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Product development programme
Further development of the 2.5 MW platform
Efficiency packages
(available: 7/2011)
•
+ 3% more yield each for all three WTG of the
platform
Increase in wind class
suitability
(available: 7/2011)
•
IEC 1*:+ 10 meters rotor diameter (N80
N90) + 17% more yield
•
IEC 2*: + 10 meter rotor diameter (N90
N100) + 13% more yield
•
+ 17 meters rotor diameter, improved
performance on IEC 3* sites, “the most
efficient turbine for weak wind conditions
currently on the market” + 15% more yield
New N117 WTG
(available: 7/2012)
3-4 MW Onshore turbine
New N1XX WTG
•
•
•
New onshore platform mainly for IEC3 & IEC2
Drive train concept currently under in early
development
Prototype H2/2013, serial production start
H2/2014
6 MW Offshore turbine
New N150/6000 WTG
•
•
•
Direct drive permant magnet synchonous
generator for a more efficient and lighter
turbine
Modular design for serviceability
Prototype 2012, serial production start
2014/15
*Note: IEC1: strong wind; IEC2: medium wind; IEC3: low wind
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Order intake
Development of firm order intake 2009 – 2010 in EUR mn
Clear upturn in order intake for 2011 in comparison to the previous year (EUR 836 mn)
expected > Target: + 20% to app. EUR 1 bn
Target based on expected sales of N100, on the wind class upgrade of the 2.5 MW
turbines and positive effects from the improved sales organisation in Europe and the USA
Great potential in individual markets such as Sweden and Turkey
12
Outlook 2011
Stable revenues in 2011 and stable to slightly lower profitability; positive operating
cashflow
Full impact of cost-cutting and efficiency measures in 2012
Recovery in USA from 2011, in European from 2012 onward, possible boost in Germany
if funding is increased
Focus in 2009-2010
1. Streamlining and improving the
organisation
• Cost-cutting
• Introducing of assembly-line methods
in our production process
• More efficient supply chain
• “Efficiency package” and increase in
wind class suitability in 2.5 MW class
Focus in 2011-2013
Product development
Two major new products
Improved testing facilities
2. Investment in Rostock and Jonesboro
• Manufacturing presence in US helps
win business
13
CAPEX plan 2011
CAPEX forecast 2011
Product development
(test field, technical lab)
Total
~ EUR 70
Plant
(Nacelle Asia & USA,
Blade & moulds Europe)
Other
CAPEX focus on product development
• Construction of prototype WTGs
• In-house test facilities enable 20 year life
time test within three to six months
• Nordex has installed Germany’s biggest test
bench for rotor blades and will enlarge and
optimize its component test facilities
Investor Roadshow | Nordex SE | Hamburg | March 2011
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Shareholder structure of Nordex SE
SKion/momentum capital
24.99%
Freefloat
75.01%
On the basis of 66.845 mn shares, as of March 2011
15
Disclaimer
The targeted goals in this document reflect forward looking statements which are based solely on estimates
and not on predictable risks.
Should the estimates with regard to the successful integration of acquisitions and the future internal growth
of the company not to be realized or if other unpredictable risks should arise, it cannot be ruled out that the
actual financial results of the company will differ substantially from the targeted goals as laid out in this
document.
In this respect Nordex SE is unable to give a guarantee that the actual financial results of the company will
not differ from any forecasts or guidance given.
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