Offshore wind

Offshore-Wind Energy in East-Asia
Offshore Wind Energy and Market
Developments in Korea
27th October 2015
BITZ Brener Innovations- Und
Technologiezentrum
Sanghoon Lee,
Director, Green Energy Strategy Institute.
Contents
• The status of renewable energy and Renewable Energy
Policy in Korea
• Wind Energy in brief
• Southeast Sea offshore wind project and others
• Issues related to offshore wind development in Korea
2
The prospect of Electricity generation in Korea
• Electricity demand is expected to rise to more than 700TWh / year by 2030
• Nuclear power and coal fired power will play a considerable role in supply
of electricity to meet the demand
Estimated by Sanghoon, Lee
3
Comparison of Electricity consumption per capita in
selected IEA member countries
• Per capita electricity consumption of Korea is higher than that of Germany
and Japan
• Korean industry heavily depends on electricity because of the cheap price
Denmark
France
Germany
Japan
Korea
UK
USA
4
Comparison of Electricity price(USD by PPP) in selected
IEA member countries
• According to KEPCO’s analysis, the electricity price of Korea is cheaper than
that of Germany and Japan (as of 2012)
USA
UK
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Korea
Average
KEPCO, 2013
5
Status of RE deployment in Korea
• The share of RE accounts for 0.8% of TPES and the electricity generation
from renewable sources is 1.5% of all generation (as of 2013)
IEA, 2014
IEA, 2014
6
Status of New and RE power generation by sources
•
•
According to the statistics of New and RE deployment in Korea, New
and renewable energy accounts for 3.86% of total generation
New energy(IGCC, Fuel cell) and all wastes(including non-biodegradable
waste and by-product fossil fuel gas) are included the category of ‘New
and Renewable Energy(NRE)’ in Korea
hydro
PV
Bioenergy
Wind
others
Fuel cell
Waste
marine
Korea Energy Agency, 2014
7
NRE Target in power sector by 2035
•
•
•
•
NRE target is 11% of TPES by 2035
Target for electricity from NRE is 13.4% of total power generation by 2035
Onshore wind to 2.2GW, Offshore wind to 10.6GW by 2035
(currently installed wind capacity 0.8GW)
PV target is 17.5GW by 2035 ( by the end of 2014, 2.4GW)
Ocean
Ocean
5%
3%
Hydro
5%
Hydro
Fuelcell
14%
2%
Fuelcell
5%
Solar
22%
Waste etc
9%
Bio
Solar
Onshore
1%
45%
5%
Waste etc
27%
Offshore
Offshore
27%
24%
Onshore
6%
<Electricity Generation>
<Capacity>
8
MOTIE, 4th New & Renewable energy Basic Plan, , 2014
Renewable energy potential in Korea
Sources
Solar PV
Technical
potential
Market
potential
(unit : GW)
Current
*Ambitious
target(13.4%) target(21%)
9,939
34.5
17.5
36.4
Onshore
45
8.5
2.2
5.8
Offshore
76
19.5
10.6
13.2
Bioenergy
15
1.7
0.2
1.1
Waste
14
10.2
3.0
Geothermal
20
19.6
Hydro
24
9.0
1.9
1.6
Marine enegy
481
14.8
1.0
1.3
2.9
4.2
39.3
67.9
wind
New energy
(IGCC,fuel cell)
total
10,614
MOTIE,
118
4th
4.4
New & Renewable energy Basic Plan, , 2014
* Estimated by Sanghoon Lee
9
NRE deployment program
The deployment of wind power is related to RPS and Reginal deployment
program
•
•
Object
Method
Program
note
Home Subsidy Program (1 Mil. Homes)
Subsidy
Private
Sector
Building Subsidy Program
Feed-in-Tariffs (FIT)
Loan
Financial Support Program
Mandatory
Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS)
By 2011
From 2012
Regional Deployment Program
Public
Sector
Subsidy
Combined Support Program
Establishment of NRE Test-bed
Mandatory
NRE Mandatory Use for Public Buildings
10
The characteristics of Renewable Portfolio
Standard(RPS) in Korea
• Renewable portfolio standard (RPS)
The RPS is a system that enforces power producers to supply certain
amount of the total power generation with NRE
• Obligators
Power companies with capacity of 500MW or more (NRE power plants
excluded)
•
Applicable companies : Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Korea South-East
Power Co., Korea Midland Power Co., Korea Western Power Co., Korea Southern
Power Co., Korea East-West Power Co., Korea District Heat Corporation, Korea
Water Resources Corporation, Posco Energy, SK E&S, GS EPS, GS Power, etc.
•
RPS target (Obligatory supply rate by power companies) by year (revised
in 2014)
Year
‘12
‘13
‘14
‘15
‘16
‘17
‘18
‘19
‘20
‘21
‘22
before
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
revised
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
‘23
’24
9.0
10.0
11
RPS – Renewable Energy Certificate(REC) &
Multipliers by resource and type
• The RPS of Korea considers LCOE of each renewable energy, in fact
Grouping
Multiplier
eligible Resources
Installation type
Solar PV
1.2/1.0/0.7
1.0 / 1.5
1.5
others
1.0
1.5
2.0
ground mounted
Roof top
capacity
Less than 100kW/
100kW~3000kW / beyond
3,000KW
Less than 3,000kW / beyond
3,000kW
on the surface of water
Hydro, onshore wind, bioenergy, tidal
power(already with seawalls)
Wood Biomass, offshore wind( within 5km)
Offshore wind (beyond 5km), tidal power(need to
seawalls), geothermal power, fuel cell,
12
• Wind Energy
Potential
- Wind Power Density
(W/m2)-80m
Korea institute of Energy Research (KIER)
13
• Wind Energy
Potential
- Wind Speed
(m/s)-80m
Korea institute of Energy Research (KIER)
14
Wind Power capacity in Korea, 2000-2015(current)
• The cumulative wind capacity is just 0.8GW until now!
• The capacity of offshore wind power is 5MW only !
• The generation from wind accounts for less than 0.3% of total generation
900
1400
Capacity
800
Electricity
700
1000
600
500
800
400
600
300
400
200
200
100
0
Capacity
Electricity
Generation
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
5
7
11
14
16,7
12,6
14,9
24,8
37
65
175
196
47,4 129,9 238,9 375,6
301
352
373
406
482
558
640
436
680
812
857
911
1143 1135
0
815
KWEIA, KPX 2015
15
Electricity Generation(GWh)
Capacity(㎿)
1200
Generation
Wind power capacity and additions
- top 10 countries and Korea, 2014
REN21, GSR 2015
16
Market share of main wind turbine makers
rank
company
Capacity(MW)
Share(%)
1
Vestas(Denmark)
277.65
37.2%
2
Hyundai HI
81.75
11.0%
3
Acciona(Spain)
64.5
8.7%
4
Unison
63.8
8.6%
5
Hanjin
52.5
7.0%
6
Doosan
51.0
6.8%
7
Siemens(Germany)
30.0
4.0%
8
Alstom(France)
30.0
4.0%
9
Hyosung
22.0
3.0%
10
Daewoo, Samsung,
Mitsubish, STX, Gamesa,
DMS, SIVA, NPS
72.25
9.7%
KWEIA, 2015
17
The roadmap of offshore wind deployment
Unit : MW
Additional
Cumulative Capacity
MOTIE, 2014
18
‘Southwest Sea’ Offshore Wind Project
•
In November, 2011, MOTIE
announced a very ambitious
offshore wind project which would
establish 2.5GW offshore wind
farm in the Yellow Sea
•
MOTIE set the goal, global top 3
exporter in offshore wind power
by 2020. (now modified as 2025)
•
MOTIE aimed to promote rapidly
offshore wind industry of Korea by
installing wind turbines made in
Korea
• The Site condition
- Wind power class 3 (6.8~7.5m/sec)
- Water depth 5~30m
- Distance from lands around 10km
19
planning in Korea
developing & planning
Offshore Wind Projects developing
• A lot of plans for offshore wind project, but different reality
Southeast
Sea
Incheon
Jangseungpo
Tongyoung
Southwest
Sea
Jeonnam
5GW
Jeonnam
Southwest
Yeosooboo
-do
Jeonnam
South
Jeongsando
Deajung
Hanlim
Jeju
dongbu
Tamla
20
20
The roadmap of ‘Southwest Sea’ Offshore wind
development
• Totally, this project supposed to draw the investment of about 8.2 billion USD
• Korean offshore wind industry expected to have a track record to need entry
into global offshore wind market through this project
Purpose
Pilot project
Demonstration
Test Bed
Operation knowhow
Cost reduction
Track Record
Verification of
economic feasibility
Large scale
commercial park
development
Park design
experience
Capacity
Deployment
100MW
(5MWx20)
900MW
(5MWx180)
1,500MW
(5MWx300)
Period
2011~2013(3years)
2014~2016(3years
2017~2019(3years)
Investment
590.4 million USD
2.7 billion USD
Kepco and 6
power subsidiaries,
Private Companies
Kepco and 6
power subsidiaries,
Private Companies
5.0 billion USD
Private companies
Korea Offshore Wind Power
21
Revised plan for Southwest sea offshore wind
• Due to local opposition, the debate on remuneration and regulation
problems, the pilot project(phase I) development delayed for 3 years and the
plan revised as follows
• Totally, 11.1 billion USD supposed to be invested
Purpose
Capacity
Period
Investment
Pilot project
Demonstration
Offshore Test Bed
Track Record
LCOE reduction
Core Technology
development
Biz Model
development
Large scale
offshore wind farm
development
60MW + 20MW
(3MW x 20) + ?
400MW
2,000MW
16~18년(3years)
2018~2020(3years)
After 2020
382.6 million USD
1.4 billion USD
Korea Offshore
Wind Power
Korea Offshore
Wind Power
Deployment
7.3 billion USD
Private companies
participation
Korea Offshore Wind Power
22
The change of players for the offshore wind
project
• Recently, Hyundai HI, Samsung HI, STX HI, DSME withdrew from wind
industry or going to spin wind business off
• Component companies still working but, not deeply connected with the
Southwest Sea offshore wind project
Before
Now
Power
Companies
Kepco and it’s Power Subsidiaries,
others
Korea Offshore Wind
Power(2012.12.)
Wind turbine
manufacturers
DooSan(3MW), Hyundai HI(5.5MW),
Samsung HI(7MW), Hyosung(5MW),
STX HI, DSME(2MW)
DooSan, Hyosung(?)
Wind
component
company
DongguK S&C, Taewoong, KM, PSM,
Hyunjin materials
DongguK S&C, Taewoong, KM,
PSM, Hyunjin materials
23
Other Offshore wind projects
• A few offshore wind projects now in being developed but the construction
mostly delayed due to local opposition, the uncertainty of economic
feasibility and complex regulations
name
capacity
investment
(million USD)*
Developer
current situation
Hanlim
3.6MW x 28,
100.8MW
418.1
KOMIPO, Dealim,
Kepco-e&
Delayed but, now
In progress
Deajung
7MW x 24,
168MW
662.8
KOSPO, Samsung
HI
Delayed
Tamla
3MW x 10,
30MW
124.6
Posco energy,
Doosan
Delayed
Hangwon
60MW
222.4
Doosan, KOSPO
Delayed
Jeju
Dongbu
5.5MW x 20,
110MW
547.2
Hanlla wind
Announced
Exchange rate : 1USD=1,124 Korean won
24
Scenario to reduce the Cost of Electricity(COE)
from Offshore Wind
COE(Won/kwh)
O&M
Trans.&Install
Structure
Grid conn.
Turbine
Others
MOTIE, 2014
25
Issues related to offshore wind power
development in Korea
1) Economic feasibility of offshore wind projects
- Is it possible for offshore wind developers to make profits under the
current RPS system ?
2) Local acceptance of offshore wind projects (especially, fisheries
cooperatives and fishermen)
- How to deliver correct information on offshore wind projects to local
people and the public
- How to communicate with local people and make local people accept
offshore wind projects with adequate compensation
3) Regulation systems on offshore wind projects
- How to establish a transparent and effective regulation system
4) Correlations between the deployment of offshore wind power and
promotion of domestic wind industry
26
Debate on economics of offshore wind project in
Korea
There is a gap between government estimation and developers
calculation on Cost of Electricity from Offshore Wind and it makes a
tention between them
- Government considers that 22~24 cent / kWh is appropriate as
remuneration for electricity generation from offshore wind
- Developers are asking to guarantee 26~30 cent/kWh for electricity
generation from offshore wind
•
The rates of return for electricity generation from renewable sources are
very uncertain (low) and unstable because those depends on flexible
SMP(system marginal price) and market competition related to REC
- RE Developers including offshore wind projects have been calling for the
guaranteed fixed price for electricity from renewable sources, but the
government would not accept the suggestion
•
• Thank you
28