Mobility in German Towns

Faculty of Traffic and Transportation Sciences „Friedrich List“ Institute of Transport Planning and Road Traffic
Transportation and Infrastructure Planning
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Gerd-Axel Ahrens
Mobility in German Towns
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
Dresden, 25/26 November 2010
verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Population in selected
countries 2000/2008/2025
vip
[million]
Germany
EU 27
Russia
China
India
Brazil
USA
Source: Anders, N., Drewitz, M.: Entwicklungsperspektiven für den Personennahverkehr bis 2025.
In: Der Nahverkehr, 9/2010, p. 52 (www.progtrans.com – World Transport Reports 2010/2011)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
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“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Kilometres per person
and year in selected countries
vip
USA
Germany
EU 27
Russia
Brazil
India
China
Source: Anders, N., Drewitz, M.: Entwicklungsperspektiven für den Personennahverkehr bis 2025.
In: Der Nahverkehr, 9/2010, p. 53 (www.progtrans.com – World Transport Reports 2010/2011)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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Passenger kilometres by mode in selected countries
vip
2000/2008/2025
verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Rail
Bus
Car
[billion]
Germany
EU 27
Russia
China
India
Brazil
USA
Source: Anders, N., Drewitz, M.: Entwicklungsperspektiven für den Personennahverkehr bis 2025.
In: Der Nahverkehr, 9/2010, p. 53 (www.progtrans.com – World Transport Reports 2010/2011)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Transforming
transportation
vip
Source: Sperling, D.: Steps into Post-Fossil Mobility – A Vision and Policy Plan for Sustainable Transportation. “Our Common Future”, Conference
Session 5, Keynote Lectures “Future Technologies II: Mobility”, Hannover and Essen, 2-6 November 2010
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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Challenge of the future – decoupling traffic growth from
vip
economical growth
verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
vip
The data base
Examination area SrV 2008
Total sample: 115.525 people
74 towns and communes
36 initiators
4 coordinated town-and-urban
hinterland surveys
5 co-operations between town
and local transport association
One survey in rural area
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
[cars per 1000 people]
Development ofvipmotorisation in East German towns
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Modal split vipin selected German towns 2008
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Car trip lengths
Car trip lengths
Public transport lengths
Public transport
lengths
Capital town
Berlin
km per person and day
km per person and day
Age dependent modal
split in Berlin and smaller towns
vip
Low- and middleorder centre
< 50,000 inhabitants
age
age
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
New
vip trend: Less car use!
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 1972 - 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Public transport
gained most in German towns
vip
120%
Relative Change of modal split
115%
Walking
Fuß
115
Fuß
115 %
%115 %
Public 115%
transport 115 %
ÖPNV
110%
Fahrrad
109%
Bicycle 109
%
Private
car use
MIV
MIV
100%
100%
100 %
105%
2003 == 100
100
100%2003
Fuß
96 %96 %
Walking
95%
MIV 95%
Private
car use 95 %
Public transport 96 %
ÖPNV 96%
96%
ÖPNV
90%
85%
Bicycle78%
78 %
Fahrrad
78%
Fahrrad
80%
75%
1998
2003
2008
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 1998 - 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Trips per person and day
1. Increase ofvip seniors with fewer trips per day
men
women
age
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
2. Households
without car increase
vip
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 1972 - 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
3. Change of vip
values: new mobility preferences
•
Living in cities becomes increasingly attractive (reurbanisation)
•
Car use gets more important than car ownership
•
New emotions about automobile prestige: intelligent mix of user-oriented
functionality, efficiency, eco-quality, convenience and customised design
(Tomforde, www.ourcommonfuture.de)
•
Prestige and status rises through ‘connectivity’
•
‘Green mobility thinking’ of drivers plus “excessive purchase costs (idle
capital) and ever increasing operating and incidental expenses for a car
owned and for the still popular second cars” (Tomforde, www.ourcommonfuture.de)
•
Inter- and multimodal surfing: better information and new lifestyles allow
choices of the cheapest, fastest or most comfortable way to travel
(internet and smart phones allow to individualised mobility concepts)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Walking or bicycling
short distances is healthier
vip
Source: Sperling, D.: Steps into Post-Fossil Mobility – A Vision and Policy Plan for Sustainable Transportation. “Our Common Future”, Conference
Session 5, Keynote Lectures “Future Technologies II: Mobility”, Hannover and Essen, 2-6 November 2010
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Modal
split and trip lengths
vip
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
More multi modality
would be more intelligent
vip
Source: HAUSDORF, Diploma-thesis TU Dresden/vip 2009
Data: MOP 1996-2005
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Car possession –
vip main determinant of modal choices
Source: TU Dresden/vip: Survey ‘Mobility in German towns – SrV 1991 - 2008’ (www.tu-dresden.de/srv)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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More sustainable urban transport through more integrated
vip
mobility services
verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Maximize
Public Transport
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
Individualised
Public Mobility
Coalition
trains and buses
Public bicycles and pedelecs
Public (electric) cars
Taxis
Alternative services
Car sharing
Car pooling
One accounting system
− Walking
− Cycling
Minimize
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
Individual private car use
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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Range of integrated measures of mobility planning
verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
vip
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2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
City maut in London and
Stockholm caused 20 % less car traffic
vip
Source: Firth, D.: Transport Planning in Stockholm. German Academic Advisory Council , 27 September 2010
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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Dresden’s integrated
mobility master plan 2025 +
vip
verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Source: Ahrens, G.-A.: The integrated sustainable urban transport plan Dresden 2025. Polis Conference Brussels, 10 December 2009
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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Mobilityvipmarket: Factors of success
verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Cooperation
Networking
Multi- and
Intermodality
Intelligent, decentral
cooperation
Interoperability
New financing and
organisation models
(e.g. PPP)
Holistic mobility
master plans
Cross linking and
Integration
Market orientation
Market orientation
Systematic research on mobility (demand and behaviour)
Market oriented development of supply and services
Source: Ringat, K.: Zukunftslinien des ÖPNV (future of public transport). Technische Universität Dresden, Institute for Transport Planning
and Road Traffic, Verkehrsplanerisches und Verkehrsökologisches Kolloquium, 20 October 2010
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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Urban mobility vip– In which direction will we travel?
verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Innovation push
MARKET FOR MORE
SUSTAINABLE
INTEGRATED MOBILITY
SERVICES
LOVE AND AFFECTION
FOR GREEN VEHICLES
Multi modal
Car oriented
PROGRESS THROUGH
ENFORCEMENT
BUSINESS AS USUAL
Constrained
innovation
Compare: Glockner, H., Rodenhauser, B.: Zukunft der Mobilität. z-punkt-The Foresight Company perspektiven02. February 2009 (www.z-punkt.de)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
2010 Annual Polis Conference
“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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Thank
you for your attention!
vip
verkehrs- und
infrastrukturplanung
Household transportation
expenditures today and in future
Prof. Dr. Gerd-Axel Ahrens
TU Dresden
Verkehrs- und Infrastrukturplanung
01062 Dresden
Kontakt:
Tel.: 0351 / 4633 29 75
[email protected]
www.tu-dresden.de/srv
Source: World Business Council for Sustainable Development, Oliver Wyman (quoted at: Prof. Johann H. Tomforde: Mobility Innovations on the way to
post-oil cities. Our Common Future, Conference of the Volkswagenstiftung and Stiftung Mercator, Hannover and Essen, 2-6 November 2010)
Dresden, 25-26/11/10
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“Innovation in transport for sustainable cities and regions”
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