“china syndrome”: new perceptions of globalization in europe
Transcrição
“china syndrome”: new perceptions of globalization in europe
THE “CHINA SYNDROME”: NEW PERCEPTIONS OF GLOBALIZATION IN EUROPE Sophie Meunier Princeton University Prepared for the Third Annual Princeton Workshop on European Integration Princeton, May 4, 2011 Thanks to Christiane Lemke for comments on an earlier version and to Sabine Mair for research assistance. The relation between Europeans and economic globalization has long been ambiguous. In Europe, perceptions of globalization are hard to disentangle from perceptions of European integration because they have occurred in tandem. Europe has globalized itself and contributed to globalization worldwide simultaneously. Yet perceptions of globalization in Europe have shifted, sometimes dramatically, in recent years. The reality is that Europe is one of the world’s biggest economic globalizers. Whether in terms of extra-European trade or foreign direct investment, Europe is by many measures the largest economic actor in the world. The European Union, acting as a single entity when it comes to trade policy, is the world’s largest exporter of goods and services and is the biggest export market for more than a hundred countries (European Union Commission, 2011). The combined GDP of the EU 27 makes it the largest economy in the world. Taking this reality into account, Andrew Moravcsik has argued that Europe is indeed one of the world’s superpowers, one that “exerts global influence across the full spectrum from “hard” to “soft” power” (Moravcsik, 2010). Indeed, Europe has been a central actor of globalization. The health of European economies, as well as their ability to sustain their welfare benefits and standard of living, depend drastically on the opening and existence of markets abroad for their goods and services, as well as on the investment of third countries which provide needed employment at home. Globalization has also widely benefited European consumers, who have enjoyed a wider array of choices and prices that have remained stable or even decreased because of international competition. Yet Europeans do not see it this way. In their majority, they tend to interpret globalization as a passive, exogenous experience of which they are increasingly on the receiving end rather than active participants. They see Europe as having missed the boat on globalization, a force now controlled by exotic and threatening powers. The reality that Europe is the world’s other superpower, able to shape the world in its image thanks to its regulatory and normative power, does not accord with European perceptions of globalization. We can dismiss perceptions as not worthy of study because they are not, after all, reality. But while perceptions may differ highly from reality, they are important nonetheless because they can, in some circumstances, influence politics and policies, as will be discussed later in the paper. Why Europeans are so self-deprecating when it comes to globalization is a puzzle. Does it impact and constrain the way their leaders approach policies involving economic globalization? This paper focuses on what has changed in European perceptions of globalization in recent years –in the post-Lehman era, post-outbreak of the debt crisis in the Eurozone, maybe even “post- American” world. The paper emphasize four recent developments: the progressive demonization of globalization; the disillusionment about the European Union’s capacity to manage globalization; the “de-Americanization” of globalization; and the perceived domination of China as the main driver and the main beneficiary of globalization today. The last section, still to be written, will explore whether any of these new perceptions of globalization are likely to have an impact on policies. 1. THE DEMONIZATION OF GLOBALIZATION Globalization has moved from being an object of ambiguity, when not downright popularity in some parts of Europe, to one of consternation, when not utter demonization. Let’s backtrack a dozen years to the world of 1999. Globalization was a big buzzword then, for better or for worse. Tom Friedman had just published his pro-globalization anthem, The Lexus and the Olive Tree. Europeans, both public and politicians, were divided in their attitudes towards globalization, as indicated on Table 1. On one end of the spectrum were Greece (the only country where negative opinions outweighed positive opinions of globalization), Austria, and France --the country most obsessed about, and most negative towards globalization, for reasons which I have explained in my prior work (Gordon, 2001). In France, popular perceptions and political rhetoric were cautious about, when not outright hostile to, globalization. Globalization was portrayed mostly as a threat, even though French companies were benefiting greatly from the globalization of markets. The rhetoric was negative all across the political spectrum, with politicians on the right trying not to be outdone by politicians on the left when it came to denouncing the evils of globalization –on jobs, on living standards, on the environment, on culture, even on food. On the other end of the spectrum, the countries most enthusiastic about globalization in the early 2000s were Portugal, the Netherlands, and Ireland. Their citizens focused mostly on the opportunities offered by globalization. Many of the Central and Eastern European countries which joined the EU in 2004 were also fairly excited about globalization. The rest of the European countries were more ambivalent, weighing the threats and opportunities offered by globalization. Germany was an interesting case of such ambivalence, with the second highest favorability towards globalization out of the 15 member states at 71% in 2003 but also the sixth highest opposition at 27% (European Commission, 2003). A similar story unfolded in Scandinavia, with trust in the opportunities but also fear of the negative side-effects of globalization. Surveys show that their citizens liked the main economic premises of globalization (such as foreign investment and free enterprise), but they also had concerns about globalization (such as growing inequalities, cultural threat, impact on the environment). In all of Europe, the enthusiasm about globalization in the early 2000s progressively morphed into a substantial amount of disillusionment with globalization, which is now viewed far more negatively than it is viewed positively. The shift occurred before the financial crisis, which only accelerated the preexisting trend. According to the 2003 Eurobarometer, 63% of the EU 15 citizens surveyed saw globalization in a positive light, while 29% saw it negatively on average. By the time the next Eurobarometer questions on globalization were asked in 2006, the percentage of negative opinions had outweighed the positive opinions, with 44% who had a negative connotation of globalization versus 42% with a positive connotation. By that time, the only countries where the positive opinions still outweighed the negative by more than ten points were Denmark, Spain, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and the UK. In Germany, 57% of respondents had a negative opinion of globalization by 2006. The same was true for the citizens of central and Eastern Europe who were very evenly divided on globalization. For example, an Angus Reid Global Monitor Poll from summer 2006 – a good time economically in CEE – found that 23% of CEE respondents thought globalization was a “good thing for your country” vs. 21% who thought it a “bad thing.” 33% said neither, and 24% were not sure. These figures were not strikingly different from numbers in Western Europe or North America from the same poll, with the exception that CEE respondents were much more likely to be unsure. Still five years later, after the financial crisis in the US and the crisis of the Eurozone, European perceptions of globalization had taken a negative turn. Many of the countries hardest hit by the financial crisis and then the debt crises were those who had previously been very enthusiastic about globalization: Ireland, Portugal, Spain. By that point the majority of Europeans, Western and Eastern, Northern and Southern, believed that globalization benefits only large companies and not citizens, that it represents a threat to employment, that it increases global environmental problems, and that it does not protect citizens from inflation (European Commission, 2010). Sure, they believed that globalization helped to lift developing countries out of poverty, but it did nothing to protect them from the challenges posed by the emerging countries. Globalization is no longer seen as a word full of promises on the European continent –its threatening and destructive possibilities have now replaced its opportunities in the perceptions of many Europeans. 2. THE DISILLUSIONMENT ABOUT EUROPE’S CAPACITY TO MANAGE GLOBALIZATION A second innovation is the disillusionment about Europe’s capacity to manage globalization. For over a decade, European policymakers have argued that globalization could be palatable if it could be managed (Jacoby & Meunier, 2010). They promised that globalization would still deliver wonderful economic opportunities to Europeans, while its negative effects would be kept under control by a series of specific policies. The European Union was presented as the instrument of choice for managing globalization. The phrase “managed globalization” originated in France as “mondialisation maitrisee” at the height of the anti-globalization fever of the late 1990s (Abdelal & Meunier, 2010). It emerged into the broader European debate thanks to Frenchman Pascal Lamy in 1999 when he was European Trade Commissioner and has been perpetuated during his tenure as head of the World Trade Organization (WTO). “Managing” means altering the existing course of things and reorganizing them for a purpose. Political leaders often imply that citizens are safer in their hands than they would otherwise be because they are “managing” globalization, instead of merely letting it happen. It shows the voters that they are firmly in control, that they still have a margin of maneuver, that they have not abdicated policy-making in the face of external forces, and especially the direct onslaught of market forces. Over the past two decades, the EU has developed several mechanisms to try to manage globalization. Some seek to ensure that globalization happens on European terms, with other countries conforming to Europe’s ways and standards. Other mechanisms ensure that external challenges brought about by globalization have as little negative, disruptive effect on European citizens as possible. Some mechanisms can be used for both purposes. Jacoby and Meunier (2010) argued that the EU has attempted to implement policies designed to manage globalization by using five main mechanisms: 1) expanding policy scope (designed to shelter the EU from the effects of globalization by developing common EU policies); 2) exercising regulatory influence (to strengthen EU regulatory power in order to affect global regulations –e.g. food safety, data privacy, environmental standards, etc.); 3) empowering international institutions (write the “rules of the game”, strengthen international institutions, and expand their membership); 4) enlarging the territorial sphere of EU influence (by expanding its territory through enlargement, the EU “subtracts” new countries from the unadulterated reach of globalization and expands its influence: enlargement, but also neighborhood policy and regional trade agreements); and 5) redistributing the costs of globalization ( with redistribution at the international level, e.g. through non-reciprocal trade benefits, and redistribution within Europe, e.g. through the Globalization Adjustment Fund started in 2007). So, for years European citizens heard that the EU would be there to manage globalization so they would enjoy its benefits while avoiding its costs. But a series of shocks, coupled with the perceived failures of the European strategy, led to disillusionment that Europe could actually manage globalization. The main problem with the management of globalization was that it contains an inherent tension and contradiction: in managing globalization, the EU has also accelerated globalization. To be sure, the EU appears as the best bulwark against globalization, since its scale makes it more effective and credible in the face of competitive practices and products that Europeans collectively deem illegitimate. But European integration may also look like a “Trojan Horse” because it has facilitated the penetration of globalization into Europe, notably by constructing the European single market and opening up protected economies to substantial competition. The failure to conclude the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations in the WTO, ongoing since 2001, has not helped either the perception that the EU could effectively manage globalization. Enacting stringent rules and making sure they applied to the biggest number of countries was at the heart of the managed globalization strategy. This was supposed to ensure fair competition while opening up markets for European products and services abroad. But the EU, once again, found itself facing inherent contradictions. With more countries in, its power to influence the rules was diluted. Worse, it created a bigger coalition of countries opposed to European practices, which led to the failure of the round –for now. The disillusionment with European efforts to manage globalization was accelerated by two shocks: the American financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis of the Eurozone, neither of which these efforts had been able to prevent or contain. The Eurobarometer asks whether the European Union helps to protect from the negative effects of globalization. In 2008 43% of those surveyed believed that the EU was having a protective role against globalization, while 37% disagreed (European Commission, 2008). In 2010, 42% believed that the EU could play this protective effect, while 38% did not (European Commission, 2010). On the surface, it does seem like minimal change. But the breakdown by country reveals that the EU has lost its protective luster among several key actors: today only 39% of Germans trust the EU’s protective role, against 49% that do not, 29% vs. 54% in France, 37 vs. 34 in the UK, 37% vs. 57% in Greece (in spite of the bailout efforts). The disillusionment is setting in as Europeans realize that they cannot get their cake and eat it too, as the promise of “managed globalization” was leading them to believe. 3. THE “DE-AMERICANIZATION” OF GLOBALIZATION 1 The third innovation when it comes to Europe and globalization the “de-Americanization” of globalization. A decade ago, when globalization first emerged as a common buzzword, it was perceived in Europe as a phenomenon that bore, for good or ill, the unmistakable imprint of the United States. A common trope saw the rough growth of globalization measured in the number of Starbucks, GAP, and McDonalds outlets that sprang up across the continent. European proponents of economic liberalization, especially in Eastern Europe and the UK, focused on the opportunities provided by globalization and many welcomed various forms of “Americanization” as a way to learn from best practices. Meanwhile, opponents of globalization organized in vocal movements that sprang up in many cities across Western Europe, with France at the epicenter. Their main criticisms focused on globalization as an instrument of American imperialism and as a cultural steamroller. McDonald’s was destroying French cuisine, and way of life by extension! So were the many English words like “email” and “week-end” that were destroying the French language! For both its proponents and opponents, however, globalization was widely equated with Americanization. The problem for the US was that while Europeans were then ambivalent or enthusiastic about the opportunities offered by globalization, many people tended to blame the US for what they This section is based partly on a draft paper with Wade Jacoby, “When Did Globalization become De-Americanized in Europe?”, July 2010 1 did not like about globalization: increasing gap between the rich and the poor; being the world’s worst polluter; and impacting negatively national culture (Kohut & Wike, 2008; Meunier, 2009). There was no doubt that the US was the main driver and the main beneficiary of globalization then, and therefore was responsible for the negative side effects of globalization. Ten years later, the picture has changed radically. As skepticism of globalization has grown and spread across Europe, the perceived “American imprint” on globalization has weakened. Today the public face of globalization is more often the Indian software engineer to whom jobs have been outsourced, the aggregate American debt claims of the Chinese Central Bank, and above all the ubiquity of the “Made in China” label. The threat is more diffuse, more exotic and, as a result, more salient because more difficult to identify. What has changed in the last decade is that the US has moved from a position of culprit to a position of victim when it comes to globalization. Globalization is no longer equated with Americanization in most mainstream European perceptions. At least three kinds of changes have contributed to the broad decoupling of globalization and Americanization. First, there is an increasing European recognition that European ambivalence about globalization is matched by American ambivalence. After the two most recent recessions, the older sense of America as a “job machine” has been substantially discredited, even as Europe’s own troubles with underemployment continue. Europeans increasingly see that many Americans are also troubled and uncertain about global economic competition, and this likely contributes to decoupling. Second, the financial crisis of 2008 has weakened the international prestige and power of the US, already bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan and now mired in debt. It revealed American vulnerabilities. This new sense of American weakness also precipitated the perceived demise of the US as the holder of the keys of globalization. Finally, the European debate about the rise of China and, though to a lesser extent, India, has brought forward a new set of concerns that have little to do with American competition. When globalization was perceived as American, the main reproaches were that it acted as a cultural steamroller (the “coca-colonization”, “Disneyification”, “McDo-ization” of the world) and was heightening the American values of individualism and competition to the detriment of the European values of welfare and solidarity. Today, the concerns about globalization are markedly different. They focus mostly on the lowering of all standards and the ineluctable loss of unemployment to perceived unfair competition. To many Europeans, the era of American domination of globalization is over and Europe and the US are increasingly now in the same boat when it comes to globalization. 3. Mitigating factors Are Europe and the US in the Same Boat? Eurobarometer question: “The EU and the USA have the same interests when dealing with globalization” 2008 Agree 7 2010 Disagree Agree Disagree EU 27 37 41 41 38 Denmark 39 51 58 33 Germany 30 58 38 49 France 33 49 33 49 Italy 40 37 48 29 Netherlands 34 54 44 41 Spain 43 20 39 34 Sweden 33 51 42 43 UK 26 49 32 43 The “China Syndrome”: New European Perceptions of Globalization According to successive Eurobarometer surveys, the percentage of Europeans believing that the interests of Europe and the US coincide when it comes to globalization has increased substantially. In 2008, 41% of EU citizens surveyed believed that American and European interests were different when it came to dealing with globalization, while 37% believed they did coincide (European Commission, 2008). In 2010, it was reversed: 41% agreed that American and European interests were the same when dealing with globalization, while 38% disagreed (European Commission, 2010). Instead, European public opinion overwhelmingly sees China as the new global power in the economic domain. 4. THE DOMINATION OF CHINA The final recent development when it comes to Europe and globalization is the perception that, today, China has become the main driver and the main beneficiary of globalization. Remember that I am talking about perceptions, not reality. The last decade saw the “rise of the rest” as Brazil, China and India rose in international economic prominence (Zakaria, 2008). The entry of China into the WTO in 2001 accelerated its meteoric economic rise and contributed to flooding the world even further with its ubiquitous goods. European perceptions about the nature of globalization changed accordingly. For Europeans, it is now clear that China is already the world’s largest economic power – even if these perceptions are a far cry from reality. 4. The Domination of China in European Perceptions What is the World’s Largest Economy Today? 28 26 19 33 21 27 20 18 25 20 12 41 29 34 44 31 35 47 38 44 46 38 44 45 45 30 46 48 US Britain 31 18 19 48 41 45 62 58 9 19 12 27 69 Turkey 8 30 43 20 25 55 21 37 42 33 31 36 Egypt 22 29 49 Jordan 28 20 India Japan 50 30 43 22 35 51 18 39 32 29 Lebanon 34 31 26 33 24 22 34 15 42 47 40 35 36 29 52 Spain 74 80 77 South Korea 21 13 19 20 19 66 61 58 Kenya 23 14 18 68 43 18 39 29 56 12 44 32 30 30 26 15 17 20 18 26 21 53 50 49 52 44 53 Indonesia Pakistan 18 34 32 33 27 13 27 24 55 53 41 43 The “China Syndrome”: New European Perceptions of Globalization 50 26 17 27 23 Russia 32 33 31 Nigeria 57 27 Poland 11 8 8 15 12 15 10 29 21 21 50 19 52 58 40 20 31 Germany 65 63 60 China 33 25 France 23 23 29 12 14 11 21 41 36 31 7 41 52 Argentina 24 17 29 25 31 16 22 18 59 55 53 51 Mexico US China Brasil RoW As seen on Figure 1, a majority of citizens in France, Germany and Great Britain believe that, today, China is already the world’s biggest economic power (Pew Global Attitudes Project, 2010). Germany is particularly touched by this “China syndrome”: 51% of Germans believed in 2010 that China was the world’s largest economy, while an astonishingly low 18% only believed that it was the United States. What does this new reality, or these new perceptions of the reality, mean for Europe and globalization going forward? First, it will likely mean increasing concerns and even resistance to globalization, as the Europeans perceive that their interests and those of the Chinese do not converge on globalization. 4. The Domination of China in European Perceptions Are Europe and China in the Same Boat? Eurobarometer question: “The EU and China have the same interests when dealing with globalization” CHINA 2010 Agree EU 27 10 23 USA 2010 Disagree 52 Agree 41 Disagree 38 Denmark 19 71 58 33 Germany 20 64 38 49 France 14 67 33 49 Italy 29 44 48 29 Netherlands 26 58 44 41 Spain 19 50 39 34 Sweden 17 65 42 43 UK 19 54 32 43 The “China Syndrome”: New European Perceptions of Globalization According to a 2010 Eurobarometer presented in Table 4, 23% of EU citizens surveyed think that China and Europe have the same interests when dealing with globalization, while 52% believe that their interests are different (European Commission, 2010). The regional breakdown of answers reveals that the European countries where most citizens believe that Chinese and European interests are different are in the big three –France, Germany, UK—and the Scandinavian countries, which until recently were quite enthusiastic about globalization. Second, the concerns about a China-dominated globalization will be greater in some European countries than in others and may lead to some intra-European frictions. Two main views are likely to dominate: China as a savior and China as a predator. Some European countries have been hit very hard by the crisis, which in many cases was facilitated and amplified by globalization. The crisis has increased Europe’s need for investment coming from outside the EU. Greece was the first member state to undergo a massive sovereign debt crisis. The other Eurozone countries organized a bailout, but it came late, with reluctance, and was not enough. China used the opportunity provided by the Greek turmoil to invest massively in the country, leasing for instance the port of the Piraeus for 35 years, as well as acquiring major stakes in distribution, telecommunications and real estate, providing welcome relief to Greece in the process (Faiola, 2010). Ireland, next in line of the euro countries in crisis, attracted massive investment from China to create a manufacturing hub in Athlone (Inman, Macalister, & Wachman, 2010). When it was Spain’s turn to face its own debt crisis, China provided a lifeline by investing in banking, tourism, and energy (Moya, 2011). China similarly came to the rescue of Portugal. For all these countries, China’s role lately has been one of savior and its Vice Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, was welcomed in great pomp by European kings and heads of state in Spain, Germany, and Great Britain when he visited Europe in January (Cala, 2011). Other European countries, by contrast, look very suspiciously at China, which they perceive more as a predator than as a savior. Figure 2 shows that France, in particular, is extremely worried about the growth of China. To be sure, China is a source of economic opportunity for European countries. In many industries, China represents an increasing share of markets and European companies have been investing massively in China. But in a way, China has replaced the US to become the new economic bête noire of the French. In the economic sphere, the “post-American” world is also becoming a “post-anti-American” world. 4. The Domination of China in European Perceptions Rising Concerns about China’s Increasing Economic Power BBC/PIPA Poll March 27, 2011 Negative views of China’s growing economic power 2005-2011 11 The “China Syndrome”: New European Perceptions of Globalization The most recent poll on the subject, the BBC/World public opinion published last week, reveals that negative views of China’s growing economic power have increased sharply between 2005 and 2011 (and not only in Europe). In France, in Germany, in Italy, it is now absolute majorities that believe that China’s growing economic power is a negative. Third, the new perceived economic domination of China has political implications. Yes, Chinese markets represent economic opportunities for European companies, but it is a doubleedged sword: profits rise, but most of the employment is in China in the case of manufactured goods. Moreover, it is no longer clear what “home” is for global corporations and whether the citizens benefit when a company bearing their colors is successful abroad. This will likely trigger some political backlash in Europe. China is seen as offering a lifeline to many Europeans. But this, they increasingly believe, comes at a price. Many Europeans are becoming suspicious of Chinese intentions and view Chinese investments with growing concern and misgivings, which cannot happen without political implications. 4. The Domination of China in European Perceptions The Fear of China in Europe February 4, 2010 August 23, 2010 9 November 11, 2010 January 3, 2011 The “China Syndrome”: New European Perceptions of Globalization December 2, 2010, February 2, 2011 4. The Domination of China in European Perceptions The Fear of China in Europe 10 The “China Syndrome”: New European Perceptions of Globalization The fears may be overblown for now compared to the reality of Chinese investment in Europe, which until recently remained relatively modest as a ratio of GDP (Nicolas, 2009). Until then, the UK and Germany were the first destinations for Chinese investment in Europe. However the movement accelerated as a result of the crisis and there is now a clear upward trend. I predict that the issue of Chinese acquisitions in Europe will become increasingly politicized in the years to come and that political tensions between the EU and China will grow over the issue of Chinese investment. In France the debate on so-called “economic patriotism” has existed since the 2000s and served as the impetus for the EU’s takeover directive in 2005. In 2009 Germany adopted new legislation, which enables the government to examine the acquisition of a stake in a German company by non-EU purchasers. The question is whether these investments are innocuous in the long term. Do they entail security risks if they enable the leakage of sensitive technologies to China or create situations of dependence in Europe? CONCLUSION For all these reasons, the trend towards demonization of and disillusionment with globalization will likely continue in Europe in the years to come. Like a decade ago, France finds itself at the vanguard of the anti-globalization contestation. The far-right National Front in its new incarnation with its younger leader Marine Le Pen has put the theme of anti-globalization (and anti-European integration) at the center of its electoral platform. She portrays policy-makers from the left PS and the right UMP as having an identical discourse when it comes to globalization and vows to resort to protectionism and withdraw France from the Euro if elected. Even mainstream politicians, such as socialist Arnaud Montebourg, have now familiarized the concept of “deglobalization” which some try to include in the socialist platform for the 2012 presidential election (Landrin & Schmitt, 2010; Nathan, 2011). Europeans seem to mistake trajectory for reality. They see China as growing at a much faster pace than they do, as attracting all these manufacturing jobs that are deserting them, and as starting to gobble up European companies one after the other. So of course they are justifiably scared that their welfare state is unsustainable if emerging countries are engaged in a race to the bottom. And of course they feel that their own identity has been eroded by globalization. The Europeans are full of doubt and are unaware that they are, in fact, the world’s most important actor of globalization. But does it all matter? Can the fact that perceptions are so different from reality have an actual impact? Couldn’t it be argued that public opinion does not constrain policy-makers, only swing voters and small interest groups do? To be sure, European politicians have a point that globalization has created winners and losers, and they could simply compensate the losers and not care about public opinion when making decisions. But it may also be that perceptions do matter, much more so when it comes to economic policy than when it comes to foreign policy. In electoral contests, “It’s the economy, stupid”, and the perception that European identity has been challenged and diluted by globalization might constrain policymakers in the years to come, leading to a resurgence of calls for economic patriotism, when not downright protectionism. 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