REF Group IRAN

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REF Group IRAN
Transforming Knowledge into Success
Der Iran
©REF GROUP 2015
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Agenda
Iran at a Glance
Politische Entwicklung
Wirtschaftlicher Rahmen
Geschäftsaufbau Iran
Aktuelle Geschäftschancen
Über die REF Gruppe
Transforming Knowledge into Success
(DE)
(DE)
(DE)
(EN)
(EN)
©REF GROUP 2015
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Iran at a Glance
Geographische Lage
Source: http://www.eia.gov
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Politische Entwicklung
Nuklearkonflikt mit dem Iran
Hintergrundinformationen
USA und EU verdächtigen den Iran, unter dem Vorwand nuklearer
Energieerzeugung an der Atombombe zu bauen
Auseinandersetzungen um das Nuklearprogramm sind das Haupthindernis
für eine Entspannung
Trotz vieler Untersuchungen bestätigte die IAEO, dass bisher kein Nachweis
vorliege, dass der Iran an Atomwaffen baue
Eine ganze Reihe von UN- und EU-Sanktionen sowie bilaterale Sanktionen
sind seit 2006 gegen den Iran ergangen
Militärische Eskalation unwahrscheinlich aber nicht auszuschließen
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Politische Entwicklung
Stand der Sanktionen
Verhandlungen
24.11.2013 Vereinbarung von Genf zur Suspendierung der Sanktionen
Heraufsetzung der Schwellenwerte für Finanztransaktionen
Freigabe von iranischen Ölgeldern
Freigabe bestimmter Lieferungen
20.01.2014 Beginn 6-Monatsfrist der Suspendierung
19.07.2014 Verlängerung der Suspendierungsfrist
24.11.2014 Keine Einigung – Frist verlängert
31.03.2015 Keine Einigung – Frist verlängert
02.04.2015 Vereinbarung – Zwischenziel erreicht
30.06.2015 Ziel – Erreichen einer detaillierte Rahmenvereinbarung
14.07.2015 Einigung der fünf UN-Vetomächte und Deutschland mit dem Iran
ab sofort Schrittweise Aufhebung der Sanktionen
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Politische Entwicklung
Stand der Sanktionen
Sanktionierung – Status quo
Sanktionierung von Produkten, Sektoren, Institutionen und Personen
Hinweis: Es besteht kein «Total-Embargo»
Anzeigepflicht bei Beteiligung iranischer Banken ab 10.000 EUR
Genehmigungspflicht bei Beteiligung iranischer Banken ab 400.000 EUR
Hoher administrativer Aufwand, es gelten eine Reihe von Ausnahmetatbeständen -> Prüfung im Einzelfall notwendig
Fehlende Berechenbarkeit privater/unternehmerischer Sanktionen
Gefahr bei US-Bezug, Nachteile und Strafen in/aus den USA zu erleiden
Urteile des EuGH: Aufhebung der Sanktionierung
Bank Mellat Iran/Rat (Rechtssache T-496/10) vom 29.01.2013
Bank Saderat Iran/Rat (Rechtssache T-494/10) vom 05.02.2013
Zentralbank Iran/Rat (Rechtssache T-262/12) vom 18.09.2014
Tejarat Bank/Rat (Rechtssache T-176/12) vom 22.01.2015
Europäisch-Iranische Handelsbank: Noch anhängig
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Politische Entwicklung
Machtstruktur im Iran
Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk
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Wirtschaftlicher Rahmen
Reales Wachstum des Bruttoinlandsprodukts (IMF-Update Mai 2015)
*Source: IMF
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Wirtschaftlicher Rahmen
Inflation (IMF-Update Mai 2015)
*Source: IMF
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Wirtschaftlicher Rahmen
Länderübersicht der größten Erdgasvorkommen - weltweit
Source: http://www.eia.gov
Stand: Januar 2014
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Wirtschaftlicher Rahmen
Länderübersicht der größten Rohölvorkommen - weltweit
Source: http://www.eia.gov
Stand: Januar 2014
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Wirtschaftlicher Rahmen
Wirtschaftsdaten kompakt 2015
79 Millionen Einwohner
1,648,195 qkm Fläche
49.4 Einwohner/qkm
Geschäftssprachen Farsi, Englisch
5,780 US$ Pro Kopf BNE (DE: 46,100 US$)
Altersstruktur
IRAN
6%
5%
24%
Deutschland
21%
0-14
13%
10%
25-54
14%
46%
15-24
55-64
19%
42%
65 +
Source: gtai
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Wirtschaftlicher Rahmen
Außenhandel EU zu Iran
8
7.4
7
MRD EUR
6
6.4
5.7
5.4
5
4
3
2
1.2
0.8
1
0
2012
Einfuhr der EU
2013
2014
Ausfuhr der EU
Source: gtai
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Wirtschaftlicher Rahmen
Außenhandel Deutschland zu Iran
3
2.523
2.391
MRD EUR
2.5
2
1.8413
1.5
1
0.5
0.3391
0.295
0.274
0
2012
2013
dt. Einfuhr
2014
dt. Ausfuhr
Source: gtai
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Wirtschaftlicher Rahmen
Deutsche Ausfuhrgüter in den Iran
2013
2014
Chem.
Erzeugnisse
18%
sonstige
20%
Chem.
Erzeugnisse
27%
sonstige
16%
Rohstoffe
0%
Mess- und
Regeltechnik
4%
Rohstoffe
4%
Elektrotechnik
4%
Mess- und
Regeltechnik
4%
Elektrotechnik
6%
Maschinen
23%
Maschinen
30%
Nahrungsmittel
16%
Nahrungsmittel
28%
Source: gtai
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Geschäftsaufbau Iran
REFGROUP.NET
Preferred Sources & Partner
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Business Environment & Opportunities©REF
in Iran
GROUP 2015
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Business Environment
Rank of Iran’s economy on the ease of doing business
Rank 130 out of 189
Economy Overview
Income category
Upper middle income
Population
79,000,000
GNI per capita
5,780 US$
Ranking (+2)
2015 – 130
2014 – 132
Source: Doing Business database
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Trading across Borders
Rank of Iran’s economy on the ease of trading across borders
Rank 148 out of 189
Export
7 documents,
25 days
1,350 US$
Import
11 documents
37 days
1,555 US$
Ranking (+7)
2015 – 148
2014 – 155
Source: Doing Business database
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Market Revenue 2014
45'000
42'215
40'000
35'000
30'000
25'000
20'000
15'000
10'000
10'680
9'743
5'000
5'464
2'534
2'234
1'557
1'216
959
754
0
in Million US$ (August 2013- August 2014)
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Market Cap 2014
7.7%
Petroleum Products
Petrochemicals
Metal Industry
Cars & Parts
22.4%
Other Industries
44.5%
Mining Industry
Telecom
Pharmaceutical
Cement Industry
Other Industries
9.1%
2.0%
2.2%
3.3%
2.5%
6.3%
(August 2014)
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Business Opportunities
Oil and Gas – Upstream
Proven Crude Oil Reserves of 155 Billion barrels
Relatively low cost of production
4th in the world after Canada (including high cost non-Conv. Hydrocarbon
reserves accounting for nearly 16% of the world’s total
Proven Natural Gas Reserves 1,193 Trillion ft3 -> 2nd in the world after Russia
Sanctions have created limitations for Iran O&G sector
4 m b/d -> 2.6 m b/d
1908: The first oil well in the Middle
East at Masjid Sulaiman
Opportunities (E&P)
New Buyback contracts (more attractive terms)
Natural Gas shortage (domestic & injection)
Estimated total required upstream investment of
200 Billion US$ in 3 Years
Source: http://khozan.com
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Business Opportunities
Oil and Gas – Downstream
Plan to increase refining capacity from 1.6 m b/d to 3.3 m b/d
(Estimated 15 b US$)
Plan to complete Petrochemical downstream chain
(i.e. one project in Chabahar 5 methanol plants 20 b US$)
Plan to build 11 Mini-Refineries with a capacity of 10,000 b/d
and 9 with a capacity of 20,000 b/d (almost 1 b US$).
Condensate based with 100% export license
Opportunities
PRP Mini Refinery
REF GROUP is the lead consultant
for three PRP Mini Refinery projects
Source: REF GROUP IRAN
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Business Opportunities
Variety of Lilium
North of Iran / Central Iran
Agriculture
Iran is one of the best agricultural areas in the Middle East
Neighbour of major agricultural products consumers
High quality and diverse garden products
Enjoys a high variety of herbal and medical plants
Russia (Iran northern neighbour) imported 94% of its
flowers and 76% of its fruits needs in 2011
Opportunities
Flower export to Europe, CIS, Russia and UAE
Packing / Branding
Modern farms
Water management technologies
Source: http://www.iran-omantour.com
Hypericum
Antidepressant
North of Iran
Source: http://commons.wikimedia.org/
Kurt_Stüber/2004
Melissa
Antidepressant-Antibacterial
North of Iran
Source: http://de.wikipedia.org
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Major Iranian Industries
Car Industry
Iran is the biggest car manufacturer in the Middle East
2013 Sales of 1 million cars (61% domestic production)
Estimated 15 b US$ market
Estimated import Q1/2015 around 3 b US$
Manufacturer
Market share (%)
Iran Khodro (P.S.A)
47%
Saipa (Renault)
47%
MVM (Cherry)
3.9%
Opportunities
Joint Ventures/ Partnerships (CKD)
German cars enjoy high popularity (luxury segment)
Car Leasing
Accessories
Lubricants, Fuel Additives
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Major Iranian Industries
Steel Industry
4.5 Billion tones of Iron Ore deposits
17 Million tones steel products (2014)
55 million tones production target in 2025
4 major producers
Company
Iran Market Share (2013)
Mobarakeh Foolad
47%
Khoozestan Foolad
23%
Isfahan Foolad
20%
National Steels Group
10%
Opportunities
Energy efficiency
Undiversified Portfolio
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Major Iranian Industries
Mining Industry
Mine
Iron Ore Production in
tones*
Jalal-Abad
1,076,901
Chadormalou
9,973,771
Sirjan
1,142,751
Gol e Gohar
7,792,256
Markazi
4,473,055
Mishdavan
Sangan
Central Plateau
SUM
Opportunities
Enhanced recovery
Energy efficiency
Brand management
Exploration
4.5 Billion tones of Iron Ore deposits
691,090
2,566,007
358,986
28,074,817
*2013
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Major Iranian Industries
Medical / Health Care
Iran is believed to be the leader in medical technology in the middle east
High volumes of medical imports specially in the field of raw materials (50%)
Local medicine sales volume is expected to be 2.5 b US$ annually
Strong presence of SSO Iran in healthcare industry
Fast growth of private owned hospital and clinics specially in big cities
Opportunities
Dependable partnerships
High Quality Market
Need for Medical Equipment
Brands are popular
Generic vs Brands
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Major Iranian Industries
Banking / Finance
Banking activities are regulated by the Central Bank of Iran
Minimum and Maximum “interest rates” are set by CBI
Strong impact from international sanctions
Very fast growth of private owned Banks during past 8 years
Forecast (billion US$)
2014
2015
Loans
210.9
264.8
Deposits
232.4
291.8
Opportunities
Credit Rating Services
Credit based instruments
International credit and trade finance
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About REF Group
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About REF Group
Extract Services & Qualifications
Market Research & Applied Science
Strategy Consulting
Financing
Market Entry
Agent/Branch Facilitation
Business Development
Qualifications
Project & Implementation Management
Due Diligence Performance
Legal & Corporate Matters Advisory Services
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About REF Group
Company structure
REFgroup Experts are selected experts from universities, leading research
centers as well as various Industrial & Economic sectors. Our Experts are highly
respected European and Iranian professionals with proven track records of
success.
REF Group
Management
REF Group
Experts
Well connected to companies and government agencies such as:
IMIDRO: Iranian Mines & Mining Industries Development &
Renovation Organization
IDRO:
The Industrial Development & Renovation
Organization of Iran
NIOC:
National Iranian Oil Company
SSO:
Social Security Organization
OPEC: Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries
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References
Peyman Ramshir Polymer (PRP) Refinery
Engineering procurement and construction of mini-refinery
Tose’eh Farda Brokerage House
Brokerage company firm acquisition and business model restructuring
Tehran Tose’eh Investment Firm
Business strategy development and implementation
Starting up & establishing Iran office for Aircom
Telecom business and marketing strategy development
Telecommunication Company of Iran (TCI)
Evaluation and listing of TCI in Tehran Stock Exchange
Dolphin Petrochemical Company
Petrochemical complex equities block trade marketing and price matching
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Europe
REF Europe GmbH
Voltenseestr. 2
60388 Frankfurt am Main
Germany
Mr. Sven-Boris Brunner
Managing Director
Phone: +49 6109 696 92-79
Fax: +49 6109 696 92-61
E-Mail: [email protected]
www.REFgroup.net
Mr. Simon Fundel
Managing Director
Phone: +49 6109 696 92-84
Fax: +49 6109 696 92-61
E-Mail: [email protected]
www.REFgroup.net
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Iran
REF Group IRAN
43 Padidar street
Tehran 15189-43311
Iran
Mr. Reza Toossi
Chief Executive Officer
Phone: +98 21 8867 8822
Fax: +98 21 8867 8825
E-Mail: [email protected]
www.REFgroup.net
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Despite thorough research and the use of reliable
sources, we cannot accept responsibility or
liability for the completeness or accuracy of this
presentation’s contents. The purpose of this
presentation is to give you initial, general
information to help you develop business relations
with Iran. The content does not constitute any form
of advice or offer or invitation to make an offer.
There is no liability assumed for any information
and data contained herein; they are legally
nonbinding.
The contents of this presentation are for internal
use only and may not be used otherwise. In no
case is the reproduction and forwarding to third
parties be allowed.
©REF GROUP
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