Winter Weather May Not Be As Wild As First Predicted

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Winter weather may not be as wild as first predicted
Posted By tamara_cunningham On October 27, 2010 @ 12:44 pm In Environment, Featured, Local
News, News | No Comments
Weather forecasters are laying bets on what’ll win out this winter – a La Nina the likes of which
hasn’t been seen since 1955 or the trend towards global warming.
One thing is for certain, this season won’t drop the
‘winter from hell’ forecasters have been predicting for
months, said Environment Canada’s senior climatologist,
David Phillips.
“We’re no longer convinced it’s going to be a mighty cold
winter where you’re freezing in the dark and buried in
snow,” he said. “Winter will be slow to arrive and when it
gets here it will be colder than normal, but far from the
coldest we’ve seen.”
[1]
Phillips said a few weeks ago this winter would likely be a
lively one. Environment Canada predicted it would be a
Big Rock Elementary School Grade 3
winter from hell and one European meteorologist said it
students Ainsley Maxwell and Karyss
was the ice age cometh.
Webster take a break from class to
enjoy October's first snowfall. This
The coldest winter in Calgary was in 1968 when the
winter is supposed to be wild, but
average temperature over December, January and
not nearly as cold as climatologists
February was recorded at -17 Celsius. A normal winter
first predicted.
has an average of -7.5.
La Nina, the cold cousin of El Nino, happens when the ocean near the equator is cooler than
usual and brings with it an arctic chill.
It’s moving in this winter and according to Nick Bond, Washington state climatologist, it will be
one of the strongest since 1955.
A La Nina year usually means blustery weather is on the horizon, which is why Bond and his
colleagues initially believed it would be a harsh season. However, there is also a trend of warm
weather or climate change that might temper La Nina. Environment Canada is now on board
with the idea this winter, although colder than Albertans are used to, will be tamed by global
warming. They say there could also similar to Alberta’s summer — wet. Six out of the last eight
La Ninas saw above average rainfall between October and December.
“We went back to our models and saw that there is this trend of warmer winters… this year La
Nina could buck the trend, but we think not,” Phillips said.
Environment Canada has records for the Calgary area dating back to the early 20th century and
statistics show winters are not as severe as they have been in the past.
The record marks an average temperature of -8.5 Celsius for the years 1910 to 1919. The next
decade the average was -7.8 and in 1960 to 1969, -9.1. Then in 1980 the mercury started to
rise and even today the number remains above the three-month average.
From 1980 to 1989, for example, it was -6.1 Celsius, in 1990-1999 it dipped back down to -7.3
and from 2000 to 2010 it’s been back about -6.1.
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Western Wheel » Winter weather may not be as wild as first predicted » Print
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“In Canada our reputation has been built on the cold,” Phillips said.
“We are the winter people in the eyes of the world and now… it’s nothing like it used to be. The
old-timers will tell you that.”
Winston Parker has lived in the area for all his 92 years and can recall long cold snaps and deep
snows the likes he rarely sees now. These days Albertans have it easy, he said.
Growing up there was always about four feet of snow on the ground in the foothills said Parker.
He lived in the Red Deer Lake region before moving west of Okotoks and said there were days
drifts rose so high and got so hard he could ride his saddle horse right up over farm fences for
miles.
“You didn’t have to get off your horse, you just rode all the way to where you were going on
these drifts that were four or five feet high.”
During the Second World War, Alberta was hit by some of its worst weather. Parker recorded six
days in 1947 where temperatures plummeted to around -50 degrees on his property west of
Okotoks.
“Most people don’t know this but when it gets that cold you can throw a bucket of water outside
and it gives off a real crack, like a shot out of a gun,” he said.
That year the winter was so tough, Highway 22 became impossible to plow. Drifts hardened to
the pavement and trucks had to make paths in ditches or through farmers’ fields because the
roads were impassable.
There was also no way to avoid the cool weather because there was always livestock to feed.
Madeleine Fleck, 86, knows all to well what it’s like to feed cattle in the dead of winter. More
than 40 years ago her husband took ill and she had to bundle up and do his chores. There was
a cold snap with temperatures of -20F degrees for six weeks. She said she would never forget
that chill.
Forty or 50 years ago, if it snowed, one could count on it blanketing the ground all winter long.
It was rarely warm enough to melt which is a stark contrast to today.
“I don’t think people have too much to complain about these days except the times when
Chinooks tease perennials into bloom early and then freeze them again,” Fleck said. “That’s a
nuisance.”
Parker agreed saying not only do the winters seem milder, but also people have more to rely on
to keep comfortable during the cool months, like electricity and furnaces.
“Winters now are nothing like when I was growing up… they were a lot harder then.”
As for this season, people are already gearing up for a cool winter.
Fred Hays, policy analyst for Alberta Beef Producers, said cattle producers are in a better
position to weather plummeting temperatures than they were in 2009.
The cold summer and dry fall last year trimmed down the amount of forage available for cow
and calf operations, especially in northern Alberta where the province struggled through a
drought. This year there is generally more hay to go around and with less demand the price is
lower than 2009. Producers have been stockpiling feed hopeful to avoid last year’s struggles,
Hays said.
“I am seeing rows and rows of hay being lined up in anticipation of one or two years of bad
weather … there is definitely more preparation going on this year.”
Forage is important for cattle in cool months because as long as they keep eating, they can
create enough body heat to withstand temperatures of -35 Celsius. Adam Scanlan breeds goats
at Givernay Farm and said he is well prepared for this year’s extreme weather and so are his
goats. They have already grown in thick coats and he’s stored up extra bedding to keep his
animals warm.
“If I was in B.C. I might be worried because those goats aren’t used to harsh winters, but our
animals here, they’re ready for what’s coming. We’re not concerned at all.”
[email protected]
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