Introdução à Economia II João César das Neves

Introdução à Economia II
João César das Neves
1
Central bank achievement?
«Many economists in fact credit central bank
monetary policy as the key factor in the last
decade’s reduction in inflation worldwide. I would
like to believe that. I do not deny that we adjusted
policy to be consonant with global disinflationary
trends as they emerged. But I very much doubt that
either policy actions or central bank anti-inflationary
credibility played the leading role in the fall of longterm interest rates in the past one to two decades.»
Alan Greenspan (2007) The Age of Turbulence, Adventures in a new
world, The Penguin Press, New York, p. 390
Introdução à Economia II
João César das Neves
2
The new economic world
«The end of the cold war (…) has little to
challenge it as the second half of the century’s
most significant geopolitical event (…) Soon
well over a billion workers, many of them well
educated, all low paid, began to gravitate to the
world competitive marketplace from economies that
had been almost wholly or in part centrally planned
and insulated from global competition (…) Many
hundreds of millions of people, mainly in China and
India, have yet to make the transition. This
movement of workers into the marketplace reduced
world wages, inflation, inflation expectations, and
interest rates, and accordingly significantly
contributed to rising world economic growth.»
Greenspan (2007) op.cit., p. 382
Introdução à Economia II
João César das Neves
3
Return to the old world?
«The rate of flow of workers to competitive labour
markets will eventually slow, and as a result,
disinflationary pressures should start to lift (…)
Accordingly an easing of disinflationary pressures
should foster a pickup of price inflation and wage
growth in the United States. (…) How the Federal
Reserve responds to a reemergence of inflation
and expected falling world savings propensities will
have a profound effect not only on how US
economy of 2030 turns out but also, by extension,
on our trading partners worldwide.» Greenspan (2007)
op.cit, p. 477-478
Introdução à Economia II
João César das Neves
4