EVALUATION OF FAUNA EDAFHIC IN NATIVE FIELD BY MEANS
Transcrição
EVALUATION OF FAUNA EDAFHIC IN NATIVE FIELD BY MEANS
EVALUATION OF FAUNA EDAFHIC IN NATIVE FIELD BY MEANS OF TECHNIQUES OF THE MULTIVARIATE NALYSIS Luiz Eugênio Jacobs, (UFSM), [email protected]; Paulo Luis Guth, (UFSM), pauloguth@ bol.com.br; Lorena Vicini, (UFSM), [email protected]; Odorico Antonio Bortoluzzi, (UFSM), [email protected]; Thomé Lovato, (UFSM), [email protected] The organisms of the soil reflect the operation of the ecosystem. In that work it was verified the influence of the temperature and humidity on them. The multivariate analysis allowed to observe the groups formed by the organisms and to analyze the influence of the temperature and humidity on them.Analise Bayseana MODELO COM FRAÇÃO DE CURA WEIBULL-EXPONENCIADA: UM ENFOQUE BAYESIANO Vicente Garibay Cancho, ICMC/USP, [email protected].; Edwin Moises Marcos Ortega, ESALQ/USP, [email protected]. This work presents a model with cure fraction using weibull-exponential distribution , whose parameter are estimated by Monte Carlo methods. REGRESSÃO NÃO-LINEAR COM ERRO SKEW-NORMAL: UMA ABORDAGEM BAYESIANA Vicente Garibay Cancho , UFOP, [email protected]; Edwin Moises Marcos Ortega, ESALQ-USP, [email protected] In this work we consider the nonlinear models of growth: Logistic, Gompertz and von Bertalanffy, with errors skew-normal distribution. Estimator the parameters we present a bayesiana analysis based on methods of Monte Carlo Markov chains. Moreover we introduce measure L as Bayesian strategy for the discrimination of the considered models. DYNAMICAL SURVIVAL MODELS WITH SPATIAL FRAILTY Leonardo Soares Bastos, ENCE-IBGE, [email protected]; Dani [email protected] Gamerman, DME-IM-UFRJ, This work presents the dynamical survival model with spacial fragility, this model joins the methodology of the dynamical survival models with the frailty models. The models are fitted through Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The modeling proposal will be used in the attempt to find causes and effect in the duration in the job in the cities of the state of Rio de Janeiro in 2001. REDUCTION OF TIME OF CANCER STUDY BY SURVIVAL ANALYSIS: CENSORING SIMULATION WITH REAL AND COMPLETE DATA Marcelo Lemos de Medeiros, Prof. Ms. UEMG – Divinópolis/MG, [email protected].; Aladir Horácio dos Santos, Prof. Ms. UNIFOR – Formiga/MG, [email protected]; Mário Javier Ferrua Vivanco, Prof. Dr. UFLA – Lavras/MG, [email protected]; Augusto Ramalho de Morais, Prof. Dr. DEX/UFLA, [email protected] Cancer is an illness very feared by the population and their studies are limited for the time in the obtaining of results. The survival analysis is used to identify prognostic factors or risk of this disease, as well as to compare treatments of interest with the censured individuals’ presence. That method allows to the researchers to define the time of duration of the experiment and to treat the censured information. However, a high number of censorships reduces the precision of the results. A study was made with data of 100 individuals’ death with cancer aiming at to reduce the time spend in those studies without losing the reliability in relation to the use of the complete data (1644 days). These data were censured to 180, 360, 720, 1440 and 1600 days. The Exponential, Weibull and LogNormal models were adjusted with three covariables each and they showed that the reduction could be made in up to 50% of the time, what is less than 10% of censorships equivalent the in the individuals’ total for those data. Key Words: Duration of the experiment, Censures, Survival Analysis, Cancer. ADJUSTED PROFILE LIKELIHOODS FOR THE WEIBULL SHAPE PARAMETER SILVIA L.P. FERRARI; Departamento de Estatística, IME, Universidade de São Paulo - email: [email protected]; MICHEL FERREIRA DA SILVA, Departamento de Estatística, IME, Universidade de São Paulo - email: [email protected]; FRANCISCO CRIBARI–NETO, Departamento de Estat´1stica, CCEN, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco - email: [email protected] This paper presents several different adjusted profile likelihoods for the Weibull shape parameter. These adjustments aim at reducing the impact of the nuisance parameter on the likelihood-based inference regarding the parameter of interest. Both point estimation and hypothesis testing are considered. The numerical results suggest that the adjustment obtained by Yang and Xie (2003) outperforms not only the profile likelihood inference but also inference based on competing adjusted profile likelihoods. REPEATED SIGNIFICANCE TESTS WITH MAXIMUM OF WKM STATISTICS Maria Aparecida de Paiva Franco. Ufscar - [email protected]; Estela Maris Pereira Beretta Ufscar - [email protected]; Samantha Bachega Moreno Carolina do Amaral Barboza, Departamento de Estatística. Ufscar São Carlos. Brasil Maximum of Weighted Kaplan Meier statistics; Repeated tests os significance This study obtains asimptotic covariance matrix for m weighted WKM statistics in several analysis (Shen ,Cai (2001), Li (1999). Simulations show that the maximum of those statistics may have greater power than a particular weighted statistics for detecting stochastic order alternatives for the hypothesis of equality of two survival functions GENERALIZED PROCRUTES ANALYSIS ON EFFICIENT AGENTS IDENTIFICATION IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Luci Aparecida Nicolau, [email protected] UFLA, [email protected]; Eric Batista Ferreira, UFLA, Artificial Intelligence deals with the development of efficient agents to reproduce human behavior and learn. When exist an agent able to make sensory evaluation of food, one will need a methodology to identify the more efficient. Through data simulation we prove that Generalized Procrustes Analysis is a quite adequate tool for that propose. Key-words: Generalized Procrutes Analysis, multivariate statistics, Artificial Intelligence, agent. ANÁLISE DA VARIABILIDADE DA PRECIPITAÇÃO PLUVIOMÉTRICA DA REGIÃO HIDROGRÁFICA DO URUGUAI ATRAVÉS DE TÉCNICAS MULTIVARIADAS, VARIABILITY OF THE RAINFALL IN THE URUGUAY BASIN: MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS Eraldo Schunk Silva – UEM - E-mail: [email protected]; Ana Claudia Carfan –Mestranda/UEM – E-mail: [email protected]; Jonas Teixeira Nery – UNESP/Ourinhos - E-mail: [email protected] The purpose of this paper is to study a rainfall variability in the Uruguay basin. A principal components analysis and multivariate techniques were used to characterize the variability of the precipitation in that region. Series of the rainfall were used to perform cluster multivariate analysis for 50 locations, aiming to classification these precipitation in the Uruguay basin. Key words: Principal Component Analysis (ACP), Cluster Analysis, rainfall, basin. STATISTICS FOR EDUCATION FUNDAMENTAL: A EDUCATION METHODOLOGY Cristina Faria Fidelis Gonçalves, [email protected] UEL, [email protected]; Elizabeth Strapasson, UEL, This article presents methodology of education, resulted of analysis of documents of the MEC on national curricular parameters - PCN, that education of statistics in basic education points, for practical situations that they take the pupil to develop field research. It was validated with application in the College of Application of the UEL. APLICACÃO DA ESTATÍSTICA BÁSICA NA GESTÃO DA SEGURANÇA PÚBLICA FERNANDO PEREIRA ALVES DE ARAÚJO, Universidade Federal de Lavras, [email protected]; LUCI APARECIDA NICOLAU, Universidade Federal de Lavras, [email protected]; ANTÔNIO CLARET DOS SANTOS, 6a Região Polícia Militar de Minas Gerais, [email protected]; MARCELO SILVA DE OLIVEIRA, Universidade Federal de Lavras, [email protected] The necessity of objective and clear information occupies more and more space in the society. And the knowledge disseminating organizations, as the universities, possess a decisive paper in the attendance to this necessity. In the present paper, we will tell a new boarding of the basic statistics used with public security professionals, basing a simple, suitable to their prole and specic language as for the necessities and statistics applications in the day-a-day work. Searching to reach this objective, it uses multimedia resources and InterNet as knowledge diusion meaning and a iteration facilitated way. PEDOTRANSFER FUNCTION ESTIMATION: RECURRENT NEURAL NETS WITH SPACEVARYING WEIGHTS AND OTHER MODELS FOR PREDICTION OF SOIL PROPERTIES Daniel Takata Gomes e Emanuel Pimentel Barbosa - Dep. Estatística, IMECC/Unicamp, CP 6065, Campinas, SP - E-mail: [email protected] ; [email protected]; Luis Carlos Timm - Fac. Agronomia, Univ. Federal de Pelotas, RS The paper aim is to propose a new regression model for relating soil variables of difficult or complex measurement with other variables easier to measure, in order to predict the first one based on data about the last ones. The measurements are taken along soil lines called transects. The study of these relations (pedotransfer functions) presents the complexity of simultaneous presence of 3 elements: data spatial dependence, soil non-homogeneity and non-linearity of the relationship. The main models usually considered in the literature for such relations (namely, linear statespace and feedforward neural nets) have the limitation of expressing only two of these 3 characteristics of the problem. In order to overcome such limitations, it is proposed here a regression model for pedotransfer mapping based on recurrent neural nets (the feedback helps to better express the spatial dependence), but with weights varying smoothly along the space in order to incorporate the soil non-homogeneity. The algorithm developed for model estimation and prediction is based on a second order non-linear extension of the Kalman filter in Bayesian form. The comparative advantages of the proposed model in relation to the other ones are shown, considering different prediction performance measures for the transect extremes. Keywords: agronomical experiment, non-linear regression, recurrent neural nets, pedotransfer functions, soil properties, transect, Kalman filter extension. PRECIPITATION OF THE COAST AND OF THE INTERIOR OF THE STATE OF PARANÁ, MAPPED BY METHODS GEOESTATISTICS Jacinta L. Zamboti, Depto de Estatística e M. A. /UEL, Londrina /PR, [email protected]; Vanderli M. Melem, Depto de Estatística e M. A. /UEL,Londrina /PR, [email protected] The objective of this work was to model the precipitation pluviometric monthly total in the area of the coast and inside the State of Paraná. Beyond the results of space exploratory statistics and especially of the experimental semivariogram, the space continuity of the variable was verified. The spherical model was adjusted. Key words: Semivariogram, Kriging. RCITRUS: A PACKAGE FOR ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATERNS OF CITRUS DISEASES Elias T. Krainski, UFPR, [email protected]; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Jr., UFPR, [email protected]; Renato B. Bassanezi, FUNDECITRUS, [email protected] The package Rcitrus is presented providing tools to assess the spatial patern of plant diseases. It is motivated by studies of the \Citrus Sudden Death Disease” however the methods are general. Monte Carlo tests for distances and neighbours, Taylor Law and quadrat counts are implemented methods, combined with interfaces to K function, kernel methods and survival analysis. Key-words: Spatial Statistics, Computational Statistics, Citrus Disease. COMPARING METHODS TO CHARACTERIZE SPATIAL PATTERNS OF PLANT DISEASES - A SIMULATION STUDY Renato Ribeiro de Lima, ESALQ/USP e UFV, [email protected]; Clarice G. B. Dem´etrio, ESALQ/USP, [email protected]; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro J´unior, UFPR, [email protected]; Martin S. Ridout, University of Kent, [email protected] The information about the spatial-temporal dynamics is of fundamental importance in epidemiological studies. Several different methods have been used to characterize the spatial aggregation, such as the computation of dispersion index, intraclass correlation, and the use of spatial autocorrelation techniques. Some problems were identified by using data simulations, with different disease incidence, quadrats size, and aggregation degrees, when these measures were considered. SPATIOTEMPORAL MODELLING OF PLANT DISEASE INCIDENCE Renato Ribeiro de Lima, ESALQ/USP e UFV, [email protected]; Clarice G. B. Dem´etrio, ESALQ/USP, [email protected]; Martin S. Ridout, University of Kent, [email protected] In the spatial dynamics study, many different methods have been used to characterize the spatial pattern of diseased plants. In this work, an improved technique for fitting spatiotemporal models to the plant disease incidence data by using MCMC methods is proposed. This improved technique is considerably faster than Gibson’s methodology, in terms of computational time, without any loss of accura cy. COMPARING ¯ XED AND RANDOM QUADRATS IN THE ANALYSIS OF SPATIAL PATERNS USING OF QUADRAT COUNTS Elias T. Krainski, UFPR, [email protected]; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Jr., UFPR, [email protected]; Renato B. Bassanezi, FUNDECITRUS, [email protected] Quadrat counts are routinelly used as an initial analysis to detect spatial patterns of plant diseases, among other aplications. This work compares two di®erent strategies: ¯ xed and random quadrats, using data from over 1,000 citrus ¯ elds and simulated data; and develop method do determine the ideal number of random quadrats. Key-words: spatial pattern, quadrat counts, random quadrats, plant disease. AVALIAÇÃO DE ENSAIOS EXPERIMENTAIS COM O USO DA ANÁLISE DE ENVOLTÓRIA DE DADOS: UMA APLICAÇÃO A CONSÓRCIOS Eliane Gonçalves Gomes, ([email protected]); Geraldo ([email protected]) - Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária da Silva e Souza, We use technical efficiency scores as outputs in the analysis of experimental designs. The scores are derived from data envelopment analysis models, generalise the classical methods of analysis, bring optimal economic properties to these processes and easier the interpretation in complex designs by reducing the dimension of the response vector. USO DO ESCALONAMENTO MULTIDIMENSIONAL NÃO MÉTRICO E ANÁLISE DE AGRUPAMENTO NA DETERMINAÇÃO DE PADRÕES DA ESTRUTURA DE COMUNIDADES DE PEIXES DE RIACHOSERRO! A ORIGEM DA REFERÊNCIA NÃO FOI ENCONTRADA. Edwin Moisés Marcos Ortega, ESALQ/USP, [email protected]; Pedro Gerhard, ESALQ/USP, [email protected]; Luciano Martins Verdade, ESALQ/USP, [email protected] We present this communication in order to establish how Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) and Hierarchic Cluster Analysis can be used together on the detection of fish assemblages structure pattern, from 60 samples taken from an agroecosystem in Southeastern Brazil. The analysis showed congruent results, and three groups of samples were detected. The groups were further characterized in terms of average stream attributes and conditions. Most differences between groups were related to terrain aspect and land-use practices. MODELLING AMMI FOR STUDIES OF INTERACTION IN STATISTICAL MODELS OF FIXED EFFECTS Osmir José Lavoranti, Embrapa Florestas, [email protected]; Antonio Carlos Lins, Acadêmico de estatística, UFPR, [email protected]; Helton Damin da Silva, Embrapa Florestas, [email protected]; Carlos Alberto Ferreira Embrapa Florestas, [email protected] The AMMI analysis for eliminating the “noise” of the interactions became an important tool for the identification of important relationships in the discernment of the true causes of the interaction. The summary has promoted the popularization of the macro AMMI (free) seeking the development of a methodology of analysis of the interaction effects, in the agricultural experimentation, for which solutions don’t still exist computerized appropriate. MODELAGEM DO DIÂMETRO DO TRONCO DO EUCALYPTUS GRANDIS HILL EX MAIDEN EM FUNÇÃO DA ALTURA E DO DIÂMETRO ALTURA DO PEITO Ivanor Müller, UFSM, [email protected]; João Eduardo [email protected]; Angela Pellegrin Ansuj, UFSM, [email protected] da Silva Pereira, UFSM, In the present work, the stem shape of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex Maiden were studied. Are used the diameters of the breast height and the total height of the forty trees. The resultant polynomial was the fourth degree for the height variable and the second degree for the breast height. A GÊNESE DO DELINEAMENTO EXPERIMENTAL SILVA, J.G.C. (Instituto de Física e Matemática, Universidade Federal de Pelotas, Caixa - Postal 354, 96010-901 Pelotas, RS, Brazil; e-mail: [email protected]) The genesis of the experimental design. The experimental designs are usually presented as a set of prescriptions among them one should be chosen for each particular experiment. This approach leads to the understanding that one is limited to the use of the traditional experimental designs presented in the texts. A rational procedure for the generation of the appropriate experimental designs for each particular experiment is presented. COMPARISON OF PREDITORS FOR DISCRETE SAMPLING FROM FINITE POPULATIONS RESPONSES UNDER TWO-STAGE Silvina San Martino, FCA, Universidad Nac. de Mar del Plata, Argentina, [email protected]; Julio da Motta Singer, IME, Universidade de SÜao Paulo, Brasil, [email protected]; Edward J. Stanek III, SPH, University of Masachusetts, USA, [email protected] We compare the performance of predictors obtained under generalized linear mixed model, Scott and Smith model and random permutation model. The last predictors are usually the best when variances are known and when they are unknown, their performance improves as the number of groups, intra-class correlation and sampling fractions increase. Key words: clustered finite population; optimal prediction; random permutation. SPACE DISTRIBUTION AND SAMPLE SIZE FOR THE TAN-MITE IN MATE ORCHARDS Was determined the type of distribution of the tan-mite and the sample size in mate orchard. The study it was lead in Chapecó, SC. During 2004 collected 18 leves of 30 plants fortnightly. The distribution revealed aggregate for the mite, leading the sample of approximately 60 leves. Key-words: Mite sampling, Ilex paraguariensis, Dichopelmus notus. COMPARISON OF TWO SAMPLING AND DIFFERENT MANAGEMENTS OF SOIL. CAMILA AFONSO BERNADES (Acadêmica do curso de Medicina Veterinária – FAMEV – UFU – Bolsista PIBIC/CNPq; [email protected]); MARCELO TAVARES (FAMAT - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected] ); EDNALDO CARVALHO GUIMARÃES (FAMAT - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected]) The aim of this work was verified the behavior of the arithmetic average, geometric average and harmonic average under conditions the tillage, no tillage and degraded area in two sampling in the various sample size. It was verified that very small samples, in general, are not efficient for estimate of the averages. Words key: Resistance of the soil the penetration, soil water content, sampling. SAMPLING FREQUENCY FOR ADJUSTMENT OF CURVES OF GROWTH OF LETTUCE PLANTS. Paula Machado dos Santos, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria,RS, [email protected]; Sidinei José Lopes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria – RS, [email protected]; Lindolfo Storck, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria – RS, [email protected]; Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria – RS, [email protected]; Carine Cocco, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria –RS, [email protected] The present work has for objective to determine the frequency of sampling of lettuce plants for the adjustment of growth curves. The need of different intervals was verified among samplings for different variables and periods of the cycle of the plant. PROPRIEDADES DO ESTIMADOR DO COEFICIENTE DE ENDOGAMIA POPULAÇÃO DIPLÓIDE AVALIADAS PELA TÉCNICA BOOTSTRAP DE UMA Paulo Rafael Lemos Amaral - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, e-mail: [email protected]; Joel Augusto Muniz - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, e-mail: [email protected]; Daniel Furtado Ferreira - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, e-mail: [email protected]; Marcelo Angelo Cirillo - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, e-mail:[email protected] - Bolsista FAPEMIG The variance and bias of imbreeding coefficient estimator in diploid populations with two alleles was calculated by resampling bootstrap method. The results showed the reduction in the estimator variance for values of imbreeding coefficient and alleles frequency around 0.3 and 0.7. COMPARAÇÃO DA CAPACIDADE PREDITIVA DA REGRESSÃO LOGÍSTICA VIA MÉTODO CLÁSSICO E BAYESIANO Osmar Jesus Macedo, UFMS/ESALQ-USP, [email protected]; Roseli Aparecida Leandro, ESALQ-USP, [email protected]; Edwin Moises Marcos Ortega,ESALQ-USP, [email protected] In this work we present a study to compare the predictive capacity in logistic regression. The estimators gotten for the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian had been used for obtain the parameters of the model and as prediction tools, being its performance measured from the classification of the individuals. The presented methodology was applied to an experimental data set. PRESENÇA DE COVARIÁVEIS NA PROBABILIDADE DE CAPTURA DO MÉTODO DE CAPTURA-RECAPTURA MÚLTIPLA EM POPULAÇÃO FECHADA Marcelo de Paula, UFSCar, [email protected]; Carlos Alberto Ribeiro Diniz, UFSCar, [email protected]; José Galvão Leite, UFSCar, [email protected] We consider the problem of the estimation of the size of a closed animal population, using the method of multiple capture-recapture with bayesian methods for the estimation of the population size and the probabilities of capture, and we consider to rewrite such probability as a function of covariates, becoming the model considered for Castledine (1981) more realistic. ESTIMAÇÃO DO TAMANHO POPULACIONAL DE CETÁCEOS VIA MÉTODO BAYESIANO EMPÍRICO PARA DADOS DE FOTO-IDENTIFICAÇÃO Jacqueline Domingues Tibúrcio, Departamento de Estatística-UFMG, [email protected].; Cibele Queiroz da Silva, Ph.D., Departamento de Estatística-UFMG, [email protected] Sugerimos um método Bayesiano empírico para estimar o tamanho populacional N de cetáceos, considerando (1) dados provenientes de experimento de captura-recaptura envolvendo foto-identificação (2) probabilidades de captura variando apenas quanto ao tempo, (3) parte da população não capturável. Inferências foram obtidas utilizando os métodos de Metropolis-Hastings e amostrador de Gibbs. COMPARAÇÃO DAS ESTIMATIVAS BAYESIANAS DE MEDIDAS DE DESEMPENHO DE TESTES DE DIAGNÓSTICO NA PRESENÇA DE COVARIÁVEIS E ERRO DE CLASSIFICAÇÃO Eloisa Moralles do Pinho, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, [email protected] (aluna de mestrado); Jorge Alberto Achcar, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, [email protected] (orientador) We present a Bayesian approach introduced by Joseph et al. (1995) for the prevalence of diseases, sensitivity and speci.city in diagnostic tests in the presence of misclassi.cations, where we can have false positives or false negatives. For the Bayesian method we introduced latent variables in the presence of covariates. ESTIMAÇÃO BAYESIANA DA TAXA DE SOBREVIVÊNCIA DE MAMÍFEROS Mayra Alves Stradioto, Departamento de Estatística-UFMG - [email protected]; Cibele Queiroz da Silva, Ph.D., Departamento de Estatística - UFMG, [email protected] Este trabalho trata da estimação Bayesiana de taxas de sobrevivência de mamíferos para dados de capturarecaptura em população aberta. Foram implementados os modelos propostos por Zeh et al. (20020), os quais foram usados na estimação de parâmetros para dados reais das baleias bowhead e do gambá cuica. A BAYESIAN APPROACH REPLACEMENT SAMPLING FOR LONGITUDINAL DATA ANALYSIS GOTTEN BY Davi Casale Aragon, DMS/FAEPA/FMRP/USP, [email protected]; Adriana de Fátima Lourençon, DMS/FAEPA/FMRP/USP, [email protected]; Eliza Omai, IME/USP, [email protected]; Jorge Alberto Achcar, DMS/FMRP/USP, [email protected]; Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, DMS/FMRP/USP, [email protected] This work presents a hierarchical Bayesian analysis for longitudinal medical data gotten by replacement sampling. The correlation among the repeated individuals is captured by inclusion of a random effect assumed to have a normal distribution. Posterior summaries for the quantities of interest were obtained using MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) methods. Key words: Bayesian analysis, longitudinal data, replacement sampling. OCCURRENCE OF MENSTRUATION IN PATIENTS WITH POLYCYSTIC OVARY SYNDROME AFTER USE OF ACARBOSE Adriana de Fátima Lourençon, DMS/ FAEPA/ FMRP/ USP, [email protected]; Eliza Omai, IME/ USP, [email protected]; Jorge Alberto Achcar, DMS/ FAEPA/ FMRP/ USP, [email protected]; Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, DMS/ FAEPA/ FMRP/ USP, [email protected]; Gleici Castro Perdoná, DMS/ FAEPA/ FMRP/ USP, [email protected] Is this study, we introduce a Bayesian Analysis for Logistic Regression Models for Correlated Binary Data. A random effect is introduced in the model to capture the possible correlation among the repeated measures for each individual. We considered normal and mixture of normal distribution for the random effect. Keywords: correlated binary data, logistic regression, Bayesian Analysis. ADJUSTMENT AND COMPARISON OF MODELS WITH AUTORREGRECIVE ERRORS, TO DATA OF POULTRY EGG PRODUCTION: AN BAYESIAN ILUSTRACTION Denismar Alves Nogueira, UFLA, e-mail: [email protected]; Thelma Safadi, UFLA, e-mail: [email protected]; Janser Moura Pereira, UFLA, e-mail: [email protected]; Daniel Furtado Ferreira, UFLA, e-mail: [email protected] Recent studies use the inference Bayesian in the most several areas. This work has for objective to illustrate a procedure Bayesian to adjust the egg production curve, using three no-lineal models, being these of Modified Wood, Wood and McMillan, considering residues with characteristic autoregressive of order 1. The results were satisfactory and Modified Wood’s model presented the best adjustment for th e Bayes Factor, AIC and BIC. Words Key: Egg production curves, correlated error, No-lineal Model. COMPARISON OF NONLINEAR MODELS TO PREDICT THE NITROGEN MINERALIZED IN LATOSOL: AN BAYESIAN ILLUSTRATION Janser Moura Pereira, UFLA, email: [email protected]; Joel Augusto Muniz , UFLA, email: [email protected]; Denismar Alves Nogueira, UFLA, email: [email protected]; Thelma Safadi, UFLA, email: [email protected] This work was carried to compare two nonlinear models, used to predict nitrogen mineralization of the organic nitrogen in soils. The comparison of the models was made through Bayes Factor, Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The estimation of the parameters was made through a routine implemented on R and for the sampling procedure it was used Gibbs Sampling and the Metropoles Hastings. Key words: mieralization, organic nitrogen, Bayes Factor. INFLUENCE OF AGE AT PARTURITION IN NELORE HEIFFERS GROWTH: A BAYESIAN APPROACH Natascha A. M. da Silva - UFLA, bolsista PIBIC/CNPq do 10o período de zootecnia [email protected]; Joel Augusto Muniz - UFLA, Prof. do departamento de Ciências Exatas [email protected]; Luiz Henrique de Aquino - UFLA, Prof. Aposentado do departamento de Ciências Exatas - [email protected]; Fabyano Fonseca e Silva - UFLA, Prof. Substituto do departamento de Ciências Exatas- [email protected]; Tarcisio de Moraes Gonçalves - UFLA, Prof. do departamento de [email protected] The Gompertz model was fitted to weight-age data of Nelore cattle by Bayesian methodology. The marginal posterior distributions were obtained using the Gibbs Sampler (a, R , b and s 2 e ) and the MetropolisHastings algorithm ( b and k). The results did not show the effect of age at parturition on growth. APLICAÇÕES DE MÉTODOS BAYESIANOS EM META-ANÁLISE Carla Fernanda Pissini, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, [email protected]; Jorge Alberto Achcar, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, [email protected] We present the use of Bayesianos methods in meta-analysis, using hierarchic models, that allow to combine some independent studies on one determined treatment. As illustration, we present two medical data sets, one on incidence of cancer in the endometrium and another one on use of aspirin for patients after a cardiac attack. Word-key: Meta-analysis, mixture of normal distributions, variable latent and classic and Bayesiana analysis. HIGHEST POSTERIOR DENSITY (HPD) INTERVAL OF THE RETURN PERIOD IN THE MAXIMUM RAINFALL STUDY BY GEV DISTRIBUTION LUIZ ALBERTO BEIJO DEX - UFLA.. [email protected]; JOEL AUGUSTO MUNIZ DEX - UFLA. [email protected]; MÁRIO JAVIER FERRUA VIVANCO DEX - UFLA. [email protected] Bayesian methodology was applied to determine, for the rainier months at region Jaboticabal (SP), the High Power Density (HPD) interval of the maximum rainfall for different return periods, using the generalized extreme values (GEV) distribution. The upper interval HPD provide values that are more appropriate to plan hydraulic works. Key-words: Bayesian methodology, HPD interval, maximum rainfall. POSTERIOR MEAN, MEDIAN AND MODE IN BAYESIAN ESTIMATION Adhemar Sanches, UNESP - Campus de Jaboticabal, e-mail: [email protected]; José Miguel CotesTorres, Universidade Nacional de Colombia - Sede Medellín - e-mail: [email protected] Bayesian estimation uses, in general, the posterior mean as the parameter estimate. According to the Decision Theory, this is the case when we are using quadratic loss because it minimizes the Bayes risk. For other loss functions we get different estimates, e.g., the median when we use the absolute loss function. In this work, with 1000 simulated multi environment trials, we use the mean squared error as a criterion to choose among posterior mean, median and mode, as estimates of the parameters of interest. Keywords: Bayesian estimation, posterior mean, posterior median, posterior mode. INTRODUCTION OF A BAYESIAN MODEL FOR BINARY DATA TO ESTIMATE THE SENSIBILITY AND SPECIFICITY OF DIAGNOSTIC TESTS Davi Casale Aragon, DMS/FAEPA/ FMRP/USP, [email protected]; Edson Zangiacomi Martinez, DMS/FMRP/USP, [email protected]; Lina Casale Aragon-Alegro, FCF/USP, [email protected]; Maria Teresa Destro, FCF/USP, [email protected] This work introduces a Bayesian model for binary data, like logit, probit and complementar log log, to estimate the sensibility and specificity of diagnostic tests. A data set containing information that some products (ham, meat and sausage) were infected with Listeria monocytogenes was used in the analysis. The results were compared with that one obtained by the maximum likelihood method. Key words: Bayesian methods, sensibility, specificity, binary data. AVALIACÃO DO DESEMPENHO PREDITIVO DA PONDERACÃO BAYESIANA DE MODELOS EM REGRESSÃO LINEAR CLÁSSICA HÉlio Rubens de Carvalho Nunes, ESALQ/USP, [email protected]; Roseli Aparecida Leandro, ESALQ/USP, [email protected]; Edwin Moisés Marcos Ortega, ESALQ/USP, [email protected] Many authors a±rm that approaches of selection models ignores model uncertainty. In this work, some of those approaches were evaluated in terms of predictive performance in situations of absence and presence of multicollinearity, and his performances were compared with the performance of the Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA). TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY OF THE MILK PRODUCING FARMS: A APPROACHING BAYESIAN Juliana Garcia Cespedes, ESALQ - USP, [email protected]; Roseli Aparecida Leandro, ESALQ - USP, [email protected] The objective of this paper is to apply methodology of stochastic frontiers models with error Student-t suggested by Fonseca et al. (2004) to analyze the efficiency of 164 milk producing farms using of the approaching Bayesian. Key-words: Production frontiers, milk production, regress with error Normal,regress with error Student-t. ON BAYES SEQUENTIAL ESTIMATION OF THE POISSON PARAMETER´S Carla Regina Guimarães Brighenti - Divisão de Ensino, Escola Preparatória de Cadetes do AR, EPCAR; [email protected] - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Universidade Federal de Lavras, UFLA; Lucas Monteiro Chaves - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Universidade Federal de Lavras, UFLA The work presents a method for estimate the parameter of the Poisson process using the Bayesian sequential one step look-ahead procedure. The stopping time was defined with the first n were [(b + n + 1)c] is greater for the variance a posteriori. By simulation the efficiency was comproved. Key-words: look-ahead procedure; stopping time; Gamma INTERVALOS DE CONFIANÇA PARA A FUNÇÃO DE DISTRIBUIÇÃO NA PRESENÇA DE CENSURA INTERVALAR, CASO 1 Erik Rodarte Lopes, UFMG, [email protected]; Antonio Eduardo Gomes, UFMG, [email protected] Neste trabalho estudamos a construção de intervalos de confiança para a função de distribuição do tempo de falha na presençaa de censura intervalar, caso 1. Utilizamos o ENPMV (estimador não paramétrico de máxima verossimilhançaa) e sua distribuição assintótica, ENPMV suavizado, bootstrap, e imputação múltipla com estimador de Kaplan-Meier MODELO DE COX PARA DADOS COM CENSURA INTERVALAR Lívia Menezes da Pax, UFMG, [email protected]; Antonio Eduardo Gomes, UFMG, [email protected] Neste trabalho estudamos métodos para ajuste do modelo de Cox com dados com censura intervalar, baseados na imputação m´ultipla via dois algoritmos descritos em Pan (2000). Seu desempenho foi examinado num estudo de simulação. Adotamos também uma suavização da curva de sobrevivência base estimada na metodologia proposto por Pan(2000). QUALIDADE DE SEMENTES DE SOJA. UM ESTUDO VIA QUANTIDADES ALEATÓRIAS Rafaela Cardoso ALVES, Depto de Matemática, UFU, [email protected] An appropriate methodology is needed in the study the number of failure predicton in the time. This study can be applied to evaluate the seed lots unviability in stowage period. The aim of this work is to present an adequate in methodology to estimate the range of unviable seed in the time future interval The coverage probability evaluated censured the efficiency of methodology in the prediction of future failure interval. COMPARISONS OF SOME APPROXIMATE CONFIDENCE INTERVALS PROCEDURES FOR THE PARAMETERS OF A POLY-LOG-LOGISTIC MODEL IN THE PRESENCE OF CENSORED DATA Cleber Giugioli Carrasco, Universidade Estadual de Goiás – UEG, [email protected]; Gleici da Silva Castro Perdoná, ICMC/Universidade de São Paulo – USP, [email protected]; Francisco LouzadaNeto, Universidade Federal de São Carlos – UFSCar, [email protected] In the present paper we compare different procedures to compute confidence intervals for the poly-loglogistic model parameters considering two competitive risks in presence of random censuring. Our simulation study focus on the study of the coverage probabilities and the amplitudes of theses different confidence intervals. We also discuss the effect of the presence of censoring and of influential points on the data. The proposed methodology is illustrated on two real datasets. UM MODELO DE RISCOS COMPETITIVOS BASEADO NO MODELO WEIBULL BIVARIADO DE RYU EDUARDO YOSHIO NAKANO, Departamento de Estatística, Universidade de Brasília-UnB - e-mail: [email protected]; JOSEMAR RODRIGUES, Departamento de Estatística, Universidade Federal de São Carlos-UFSCar - e-mail: [email protected] In the present study, the Ryu’s bivariate model (Ryu, 1993) was extended to allow the shock s to change with time by modifying its suppositions. A competing risks model was formulated from this model, and using simulated data and MCMC algorithm with latent variables its parameters were estimated via bayesian procedures. ANALYSIS OF RELIABILITY APPLIED TO THE FORECAST OF REPLACED WHEELS IN A RAILROAD TRANSPORT COMPANY Renaut Bortolini, Dep. de Eng. de Produção da UFV, [email protected]; José Ivo Ribeiro Júnior, Dep. de Informática (Setor de Estatística) da UFV, [email protected]; Ronaldo de Oliveira Faria, Dep. de Eng. de Produção da UFV, [email protected]; Emanuel Fernando Maia de Souza, Dep. de Informática da UFV, [email protected]; Mauro Sérgio de Oliveira Leite, Dep. de Informática da UFV, [email protected] In this work, reliability analysis was used to foresee expenses on the number of wagon wheels replaced by a railroad company in 2005. The function of reliability foreseen that in December of 2005,10.2% of wheels did need to be replaced, what may cause an annual expense of U$ 12,642.00. Key-words: Reliability, forecast, estimate of the expenses. ESTIMADORES NÃO-PARAMÉTRICOS: UMA REVISÃO. Fabíola Moraes, Universidade Federal de São Carlos,[email protected] - Benedito Galvão Benze, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, [email protected]; Francisco Louzada-Neto, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, [email protected] In this work we present di£erent methodos for estimating the survival or hazard functions. Also, we discuss some problems, waich lead to no real estimates. Word-key: censured data, functions of survival, methods bayesians, functions of risk, fragility. CONTROLE DE QUALIDADE VIA DADOS DE SOBREVIVÊNCIA ACELERADOS. Sabrina Luzia Caetano, Universidade Federal de São; Carlos,[email protected]; Dr. Francisco Louzada-Neto, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, [email protected] The main objective of this paper is to propose a quality control procedure based on an exponential model with a power law stress relationship. THE CENSORING EFFECT IN THE PARAMETERS ESTIMATION ON THE WEIBULL DISTRIBUTION Juliana Betini Fachini – Estatística – FCT/UNESP; Mario Hissamitsu Tarumoto – DMEC – FCT/UNESP – [email protected] In this introductory work, was studied the effect of the censoring in the parameters estimation, where the Weibull distribution is assumed. The parametric Bootstrap methods was considered in this study. The Weibull sample with random censoring was generated and the maximum likelihood estimated of the parameters was considered in each sample. We observed that, when the censoring proportion is large, the estimation biased is large too and the distribution´s of the parameters was assimetric. Key words: censoring, Bootstrap, failure time. ESTIMANDO A EVASÃO DE CLIENTES EM INTITUIÇÕES FINANCEIRAS Flávio Henrique de Souza Gonçalves, Banco do Brasil S. A., [email protected].; Isabella Peres da Rocha e Silva Fregonasse, Banco do Brasil, [email protected]; Lílian Yuri Maeda Uezu, Banco do Brasil S.A., [email protected] In this paper, we use two methods, multiple logistic regression and survival analysis to provide a powerfull tool to predict customer churn and keep custumer longer. The logistic method is important to predict wich customer are at high risk of churn, however , survival analysis will identify when these customers will churn. The findings of this study will be helpful to optimize marketing resourses, allowing the concentration of efforts in a small number of customer to reduce the churn. Palavras chave: Regressão logística, Análise de Sobrevivência, evasão, Modelo de Cox. BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR THE MODE OF THE LOG-LOGISTIC HAZARD FUNCTION Josmar Mazucheli, DEs/UEM Universidade Estadual de Maring´a, [email protected]; Em´1lio A. C. Barros, DEs/UEM Universidade Estadual de Maring´a, [email protected];Jorge Alberto Achcar, Universidade Federal de SÜao Carlos, [email protected] In many applications of lifetime data analysis, it is important to perform inferences about the mode of the hazard function in situations of lifetime data modelling with unimodal hazard functions. For lifetime distributions where the mode of the hazard function can be analytically calculated, its maximum likelihood estimator is easily obtained from the invariance properties of the maximum likelihood estimators. >From the asymptotical normality of the maximum likelihood estimators, confidence intervals can be obtained. However, these results might not be very accurate for small sample sizes and/or large proportion of censored observations. Considering the loglogistic distribution for the lifetime data with shape parameter > 1, we present and compare the accuracy of asymptotical confidence intervals with two confidence intervals based on bootstrap simulation. The alternative methodology of confidence intervals for the mode of the log-logistic hazard function are illustrated in three numerical examples. Key-Words: Survival analysis, log-logistic distribution, hazard function, bootstrap confidence intervals. APLICAÇÃO DO MODELO DE COX E USO DO MÉTODO DE BOOSTRAP PARA ESTIMAÇÃO DA DOSE ADEQUADA DE FK NO SANGUE EM PACIENTES TRANSPLANTADOS DE FÍGADO Bruna de Castro Dias Bicalho, UFMG, [email protected]; Eduardo Henrique De Oliveira, UFMG, [email protected]; Enrico Antônio Colosimo, UFMG, [email protected] A determinação da dose de Tacrolimus (FK) administrada a pacientes transplantados de fígado é extremamente imprecisa, e freqüentemente atinge níveis inadequados no sangue ocasionando efeitos colaterais. Neste estudo ajustamos o Modelo de Cox para avaliar as variáveis que estão associadas com o tempo de sobrevida destes indivíduos. Reescrevendo a função de sobrevivência em termos da dose, que é uma covariável significativa para o modelo, e pelo método Bootstrap obtemos estimativas pontuais e intervalares respectivamente, da dose adequada. Estabelecemos inicialmente um tempo de sobrevivência igual a 0,5. Palavras chave: Função de sobrevivência, Modelo de Cox, Bootstrap, Tacrolimus. ANÁLISE MULTIVARIADA INTER-RELAÇÃO DE CRESCIMENTO DE ÓRGÃOS INTERNOS EM FRANGOS DE CORTE ATRAVÉS DE ANÁLISE DE TRILHA (PATH ANALYSIS) Kleber Régis Santoro, Universidade Federal do Vale do São Francisco – UNIVASF, [email protected]; Carlos Bôa-Viagem Rabello, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco – UFRPE, [email protected]; Ronaldo Vasconcelos Farias Filho, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco – UFRPE, [email protected] The growth of internal organs and viscera has a relationship that must be not ignored. This study could be more detailed if any multivariate technique may be applied. This work use principal components and path analysis to verify relationships. The developed model had sufficient precision to be applied in case. ROBUSTNESS OF ASYMPTOTIC AND BOOTSTRAP HOMOGENEITY OF COVARIANCE MATRICES TESTS FOR MULTIVARIATE The work emphasizes the importance of homogeneity covariance matrices tests of multivariate populations. Were applying four tests using simulation in normal and non normal populations evaluating the type I error rates and power. The tests proposed were successful and the bootstrap tests were superiors to the asymptotic test. Key words: Simulation; Samiuddin’s test; Bayesian Inference PREDIÇÃO DE GANHOS PELA SELEÇÃO BASEADA EM ESCORES FATORIAIS EM CARACTERES AVALIADOS EM COFFEA CANEPHORA VAR. CONILON. Paulo Roberto Cecon, UFV, [email protected]; Adésio Ferreira, UFV, [email protected]; Geraldo de Amaral Gravina, UFV, [email protected]; Luiz Alexandre Peternelli, UFV, [email protected]; Romário Gava Ferras, INCAPER-ES, [email protected]; Cosme Damião Cruz, UFV, [email protected] This work aimed to study the selection based on scores obtained by factor analysis in 40 Coffea canephora var. conilon genotypes fron INCAPER, of four crops, at Marilândia –ES, in arandomized block design with four replicates. Fouteen characteristics were analysed. The factor analysis technique was considered adequate for this study. MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF NATIVE AND FOREST SPECIES SEEDS OF RIO GRANDE DO SUL Fabiano de Oliveira Fortes, PPG Engenharia Florestal – CCR – UFSM, [email protected]; Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio, Depto Fitotecnia – CCR – UFSM, [email protected]; Sidinei José Lopes, Depto Fitotecnia – CCR – UFSM, [email protected]; Lindolfo Storck, Depto Fitotecnia – CCR – UFSM, [email protected]; Eduardo Righi dos Reis, PPG Engenharia Florestal – CCR – UFSM; Alexandre Francisco Binotto, PPG Engenharia Florestal – CCR – UFS; Fernanda de Oliveira, Graduação em Engenharia Florestal – CCR – UFSM, [email protected] The objectives of accomplishing a of the analyses of seeds with native species, and grouping the most similar ones, by the hierarchical complete method, used the technique of main components for the reduction of the number of data, with in the third and fourth main components explained 80% the variation. Key words: Cluster analysis, distance euclidian, analysis principal components. SEEDS ANALYSES OF THE EXOTIC FOREST SPECIES: APPROACH MULTIVARIATE Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio, Depto Fitotecnia – CCR – UFSM, [email protected]; Fabiano de Oliveira Fortes, PPG Engenharia Florestal – CCR – UFSM, [email protected]; Sidinei José Lopes, Depto Fitotecnia – CCR – UFSM, [email protected]; Lindolfo Storck, Depto Fitotecnia – CCR – UFSM, [email protected]; Alberto Cargnelutti Filho, FEPAGRO – RS, [email protected]; Bruna da Silveira Denardin, PPG Engenharia Florestal – CCR - UFSM The objectives of accomplishing a of the analyses of seeds with exotic species, and grouping the most similar ones, by the hierarchical complete method, used the technique of main components for the reduction of the number of data, with in the third and fourth main components explained 80% the variation. Key words: Cluster analysis, analysis principal components, storage. CORRESPONDENCY ANALYSIS TO EVALUATE ADVERTISING DIRECTIONED TO THE THIRD SECTORERRO! A ORIGEM DA REFERÊNCIA NÃO FOI ENCONTRADA. Rosana Borges Zaccaria, UNIMEP, [email protected]; Arlei Coldebella, CNPSA/EMBRAPA, [email protected]; Maria Izalina Ferreira Alves, UNIMEP, [email protected]; Cristiane Mariana R. Afonso, UNIMEP, [email protected] To evaluate the 121 advertising directioned to the third sector, from the yearbook of the Creation Club of São Paulo, during the period from 1997 to 2003, it was organized a protocol with 18 questions considered active and 8 questions illustrative, analyzed in according to the Multiple Correspondence Analysis Model. GENERALIZED PROCRUSTES ANALYSIS ON SOUTH MINAS CACHAÇA COMPARISION Eric Batista Ferreira, UFLA, [email protected] 1; Luciana do Nascimento Lanchote, UFLA, [email protected]; ABSTRACT: Generalized Procrustes Analysis (GPA) was used to compare two cachaça (a new and an old). A seven untrained people panel was used to sensory evaluate both. It was found that the new one is characterized by its high alcohol level. 1 Técnico em laticínios, Engenherio Agrônomo, Mestre em Estatística, doutorando em Estatística. 2 Graduanda em Administração. ROBUSTNESS OF ASYMPTOTIC AND BOOTSTRAP HOMOGENEITY OF COVARIANCE MATRICES. TESTS FOR MULTIVARIATE Roberta Bessa Veloso Silva - Universidade Federal de Lavras – UFLA [email protected]; Daniel Furtado Ferreira - Universidade Federal de Lavras – UFLA [email protected]; Denismar Alves Nogueira – Universidade Federal de Lavras – UFLA [email protected] The work emphasizes the importance of homogeneity covariance matrices tests of multivariate populations. Were applying four tests using simulation in normal and non normal populations evaluating the type I error rates and power. The tests proposed were successful and the bootstrap tests were superiors to the asymptotic test. Key words: Simulation; Samiuddin’s test; Bayesian Inference ANÁLISE VIA CART DOS DADOS DO VESTIBULAR 2004 DA UFMG Junio Gonçalves Rodrigues, UFMG, [email protected]; Ludmila Vieira Lage, UFMG, [email protected]; Talita Fernanda Sousa Dias, UFMG, [email protected]; Thiago Rezende dos Santos, UFMG, [email protected]; Glaura C. Franco, UFMG, [email protected]; Rosangela H. Loschi, UFMG, [email protected] The aim of study is to evaluate the most significant variables in relation to the approval of an applicant for the entrance examination at UFMG. This work focus in the analysis of the variables of the socioeconomic questionnaire and its relation with the response variable “Was the applicant approved?” PROFILE OF THE INEQUALITY AMONG AGRICULTURE: A MULTIVARIATE APPROACH ENGAGED PEOPLE IN BRAZILIAN Idemauro Antonio Rodrigues Lara – ESALQ/USP e UNIMEP – [email protected]; Angela Maria Cassavia Jorge Corrêa – UNIMEP – [email protected]; Carlos Tadeu Santos Dias – ESALQ/USP – [email protected] This study aims to analyze the relative matter of some economics and socio-demographics explanatory variable for the inequality among engaged people in the agricultural sector of Brazil in 2002. The study was developed from available information (PNAD 2002) with emphasis in the studies of the States of the Federation. The quarrel of the results will come from the application of methods of the multivariate analysis, through it we make an explanatory analysis with aid Biplots graphs as methodology described for Gabriel( 1971). Also aiming the reduction of the variable explanatory number, and having in view the multicollinearity presence, the technique of analysis of Principal Components is used. Key word: agricultural worker, PNAD, multivariate analysis, Biplot MODELLING FISH SPECIES OCCURRENCE IN HEADWATER STREAMS OF PARANÁ RIVER BASIN-MS YZEL RONDON SÚAREZ - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected] ; THIAGO R. A. FELIPE UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected] ; SABRINA B. VALÉRIO UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected]; LIDIANI Q. L. XIMENES UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected]; KARINA K. TONDATO - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected] The occurrence of 14 fish species in headwater streams of Paraná River basin (Brazil, MS) was quantified using a Logistic Regression. The hydrologic characteristics were the main determinant factors of species occurrence. Species with wide distribution on hydrographic basin they present your occurrence more difficult to modeling. Financial support: FUNDECT (Process nº 489-02) and UEMS DETERMINANT FACTORS OF FISH SPECIES DIVERSITY IN HEADWATER STREAMS OF PARAGUAI RIVER BASIN-MS YZEL RONDON SÚAREZ - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected]; SABRINA B. VALÉRIO UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected] ; KARINA K. TONDATO UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected] ; LIDIANI Q. L. XIMENES UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected]; THIAGO R. A. FELIPE - UEMS/GASLAB/Lab. Ecologia. e-mail: [email protected] Erro! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The variation in fish species diversity in 10 headwater streams in the Paraguai river basin was quantified through Analysis of Co-variance. We verified differentiation in species diversity between the analyzed subbasins. The altitude and stream width they present significant influence on species richness and evenness. Financial support: FUNDECT (Process nº 489-02) and UEMS A PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE PUBLIC SECURITY IN THE SOUTH REGION OF MINAS GERAIS Josiane Magalhães Teixeira, Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), [email protected]; Thelma Sáfadi, Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), [email protected]; Daniel Furtado Ferreira, Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), [email protected] This work is part of a more including study which intends to analyze time series referring the criminal incidence in some South Minas cities. It was applied factor analisys for a fifitty variables grup in 8 cities, with the objective to analyze and understand the existing relationship between them. Key words : factor analysis, public security A SENSORIAL INTERPRETATION OF GENERALIZED PROCRUSTES ANALYSIS IN R Eric Batista Ferreira, UFLA, [email protected]; 1 Técnico em Laticínios, Engenheiro Agrônomo, mestre em Estatística, doutorando em Estatística, bolsista CAPES. Generalized Procrustes Analysis (GPA) is a multivariate exploratory analysis largely applied to sensory data. Usually, this analysis is performed on expensive softwares. R is a free statistical software that has a package with this function implemented and it was sensory interpreted. Key-words: Generalized Procrustes Analysis, R, multivariate statistics. GENERALIZES PROCRUSTES ANALYSIS VIA R ON GORGONZOLA Eric Batista Ferreira, UFLA, [email protected]; Marcelo Silva de Oliveira, UFLA, [email protected]; Daniel Furtado Ferreira, ULFA, [email protected]; Fernando Antônio Resplande Magalhães, EPAMIG, fernando.magalhã[email protected]. 1 Técnico em laticínios, Engenheiro Agrônomo, Mestre em Estatística, doutorando em Estatística. 2 Professor Adjunto do Departamento de Ciências Exatas.Erro! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The Generalized Procrustes Analysis (GPA) was applied to gorgonzola cheese data, ANOVAs detected significative differences between technologies, ages and interactions. GPA provided the consensus configuration and showed relative differences among the cheeses and the both technologies’ sensory evolution. The assessors considered higher milk fat content technology the best. Key-words: Generalized Procrustes Analysis, Sensorial Analysis, multivariate statistics, gorgonzola. THE USE OF THE BARTLETT SPHERICITY TEST IN THE STUDY OF SUNFLOWER GENETIC VARIABILITY ANA VERGÍNIA LIBOS MESSETTI - Universidade Estadual de Londrina-UEL, [email protected]; CARLOS ROBERTO PADOVANI - Universidade Estadual Paulista, [email protected]; Multivariate methods are used to study genetic variability in vegetables in genetic improvement programs. This work carries out an principals components analysis to reduce the number of descriptive variables in 12 sunflowers populations. According to the Bartlett test, these variables are significantly correlated. The Kaiser’s criterion determined two components, explaining the 82,5% total variation. Key words: Principals components analysis, genetic variability, Bartlett sphericity test. AN E±CIENT ALGORITHM FOR ESTIMATION IN SKEW-NORMAL LINEAR MIXED MODELS Victor H. Lachos - Bayes Forecast-Brasil, São Paulo - S.P. - Brasil Normality (symmetric) of the random e®ects and the within-subject errors is a routine assumptions for the linear mixed model. We relax this assumption by considering that the random e®ects follow a skew-normal distributions, which includes normality as a special case and provides °exibility in capturing a broad range of non-normal behavior. The marginal distribution for the observed quantity is derived which is expressed in closed form. We also implement an e±cient EM type algorithm, which optimizing the EM algorithm proposed by Arellano-Valle Bolfarine & Lachos (2005) [Journal of Multivari-ate Analysis ]. Results of simulation studies and applications to real data sets are reported. Key Words: EM algorithm; marginal likelihood; mixed e®ects model; skewness. STATISTICAL MOLECULAR ANALYSIS OF PHASEOLUS-RHIZOBIAL STRAINS FROM COMMON BEAN SEEDSERRO! A ORIGEM DA REFERÊNCIA NÃO FOI ENCONTRADA. Maria Elizabeth da Costa Vasconcellos, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, [email protected].; Eduardo Aparecido Rosa Neto, Universidade Estadual de Londrina, [email protected].;Diva Souza Andrade, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, [email protected]! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) using data derived from PCR-RFLP analysis of 49 Phaseolusrhizobial seed-born strains from four cultivars collected in three Brazilian states was done. The AMOVA demonstrated higher genetic variation within the strains independently of their origins. The cluster analysis according to Euclidean distance indicated three groups. FACTOR ANALYSIS OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN CURITIBA - PR Antonio Jorge Gonçalves Pontes ,Acadêmico de estatística, UFPR, [email protected]; Osmir José Lavoranti, Departamento de estatística, UFPR, [email protected] Were studied the contribution of twenty-six variables, referring the conditions of the road, in the place of the accident of traffic in Curitiba-PR. Factor analysis it was used and it was observed that the conductive factor was responsible for the largest contribution of the accidents in Curitiba-PR. CLASSIFICATION OF SOY CULTIVARS ABOUT CONCENTRATION OF ISOFLAVONES USING MULTIVARIATE STATISTICS ANALYSIS Sarah Rabelo de Souza, FEMA-Assis, Esp. em Estatística/UEL, [email protected]; Jacinta Ludovico Zamboti, Depto de Estatística e Mat. Aplicada./UEL, [email protected]! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The goal of this research is to classify 233 soy cultivars, about concentration of isoflavones glucosides in soybean, evidencing clusters of cultivars that have either higher or lower concentration of these compounds (daidzin, glycetin, genistin e genAG). The multivariate analysis denominated Cluster analysis (k-means) was used to group these cultivars. Keywords: multivariate statistics; cluster analysis; k-means, soybean isoflavones. COMPARISON OF MULTIVARIATE TECHNIQUES IN STUDY OF SOIL INVERTEBRATE MACROFAUNA IN CROPS UNDER ORGANIC MANAGEMENT AND NO-TILLAGE SYSTEMS Janaina Ribeiro Costa - Embrapa Agrobiologia - [email protected]; Adriana Maria de Aquino Embrapa Agrobiologia - [email protected] Principal components, canonical variables and cluster analyses were compared using data of soil macrofauna sampled in crops under organic management and no-tillage systems. There was consistency among the results obtained with the multivariate analysis techniques used. Key words: Principal components analysis, canonical variables analysis, cluster analysis, soil macrofauna. UTILIZAÇÃO DA ANÁLISE DE CORRESPONDÊNCIA MÚLTIPLA NA CARACTERIZAÇÃO DO PADRÃO DE FRUTIFICAÇÃO DA COMUNIDADE EM UM FRAGMENTO DE FLORESTA SEMIDECÍDUA USE OF MULTIPLE CORRESPONDENCE ANALYSIS TO CHARACTERIZE COMMUNITY FRUITING PATTERN IN A SEMIDECIDUOUS FOREST FRAGMENT Renata Cristina Batista Fonseca, Departamento de Recursos Naturais – Faculdade de Ciências Agronômicas – UNESP/Botucatu – e-mail: [email protected]; Inês Cristina de Batista Fonseca, Departamento de Agronomia – Centro de Ciências Agrárias – Universidade Estadual de Londrina – e-mail: [email protected] The objective of this study is to verify the possibility of the use of Multiple Correspondence Analysis to characterize temporal redundancy of species fruiting in a semideciduous forest fragment, Botucatu County, São Paulo State, Brazil. The method was efficient, however the knowing of species biology is essential to results interpretation. SHRINKAGE OF EIGENVALUES OF COVARIANCE MATRIX AND APPLICATION IN AMMI MODEL Lúcio Borges de Araújo, ESALQ/USP, [email protected]; Carlos Tadeu dos Santos Dias, ESALQ/USP, [email protected] The aim of this work is to verify e®ect of three shrinkage methods for: eigenvalues of covariance matrix, eigenvalues mean of 100 matrix covariance and in interaction matrix. It was veri¯ ed that the three method has been present good shrinkage and shrinkage is the same for eigenvalue or eigenvalue mean. When applying the third correction in real data, obtained a model more parsimonious. Word-key: AMMI model, biased of eigenvalues , Shrinkage of eigenvalues. ENSINO DE ESTATÍSTICA STATISTICAL EDUCATIONAL PROJECTS AT FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF UBERLÂNDIA Quintiliano Siqueira Schroden Nomelini, Acadêmico do curso de Matemática –UFU – Bolsista -PIBEG, [email protected].; Heyder Diniz Silva, FAMAT-UFU, [email protected].; Arlindo José de Souza Jr., FAMAT-UFU, [email protected] These project focus on the building statistical teachers. Math Under graduation Students attendant Statistics and probability chair were encouraged to develop education projects in statistics. The projects, conducted by teams of 3 – 5 students were developed in 2004´s first and second semesters. Projects were grouped in three major’s areas: Teaching statistics: mea n and median webquest; data simulation and combinatory analysis webquest; Applied statistics: Math students profile; Reprovation indices in UFU´s Math curse, Probabilistic model for Mega sena; and elections surveys; Informatics in Statistics: excel as a statistical tool; simulation by virtual labs; graphical applications. Key words: Education, statistical education . RELATO DE EXPERIÊNCIAS DIDÁTICAS DO ENSINO DE ESTATÍSTICA ATRAVÉS DE METODOLOGIAS ALTERNATIVASERRO! A ORIGEM DA REFERÊNCIA NÃO FOI ENCONTRADA. Maria Luisa M. Calçada ([email protected]); Ronaldo S. Wada([email protected]; Idemauro Antonio R. Lara ([email protected]); Maria Célia de Oliveira Papa ([email protected]; Glória Aparecida Soares Rosada([email protected]) Faculdade de Ciências Matemáticas, da Natureza e Tecnologia da Informação Apoio Financeiro: FAP- UNIMEP Knowing how Statistics are being taught, worked with or discussed is a fundamental element for understanding them. This study aimed to seek alternative resources for teaching-learning Statistics, aimed at Basic and Middle Education, in an endeavor to find suitable forms of approaching new ideas, capable of meeting the requirements of the new citizen profile that current society requires. The study involved field research together with the official teaching network in Piracicaba, and studies were carried out in partnership with professors from the UNIMEP teaching network, through which teaching activities were proposed and developed. It may be noted that in spite of the difficulties, there are alternatives capable of motivating and favoring the learning of Statistics. The results obtained indicate that the proposed activities contributed towards reducing the deficiency in the teaching processes. UMA OPÇÃO PARA O ENSINO ONLINE DE ESTATÍSTICA VIA R NA WEB FRANCISCO LUIZ VILAS BOAS, [email protected]; LUCI APARECIDA NICOLAU, Universidade Federal de Lavras, [email protected]; DENISMAR ALVES NOGUEIRA, Universidade Federal de Lavras, [email protected]; MARCELO SILVA DE OLIVEIRA, Universidade Federal de Lavras, [email protected]; FÁTIMA M.S. MOREIRA, Universidade Federal de Lavras,[email protected] Courses through internet are a promising option for training and learning. The experience of a on line Statistics course given by professionals of to the federal University of Lavras to a group of researchers and students working in a international project is reported. By the systematic observation and data collected through questionnaires the participant’s impression is described. A good acceptance of the course was noticed even by those who never used this learning tool. SPACIAL DEPENDENCE IN MAIZE FELD EXPERIMENTES Beques Aparecido Araújo Sousa, UFU undergraduate student, [email protected]; Heyder Diniz Silva, FAMAT-UFU, [email protected]; Michele Gonçalves Pedrosa Spacial dependence among Phaeospheria, Puccinea and Cercosphora resistance scores in mayze feld experiment was evaluated. Nine of the 19 evaluated experiment showed a hight spacial dependence. Key-words: Likelihood ratio test, geoestatístics, Phaeospheria,Puccinea,Cercosphora,. SPATIAL VARIABILITY OF SUMMER RAINFALL IN MINAS GERAIS STATE –BRAZIL JADER ALVES DE OLIVEIRA - Acadêmico do Curso de Engenharia Elétrica –FEELT/UFU – Bolsista PIBIC/FAPEMIG - [email protected]; EDNALDO CARVALHO GUIMARÃES - Prof. Orientador – FAMAT/UFU – [email protected]; MARCELO TAVARES - Prof. Colaborador – FAMAT/UFU – [email protected] The purpose of this work was to verify the spatial dependence of the summer rainfall in Minas Gerais State, Brazil. The data of 62 climatological stations were used. It was made descriptive analysis and geostatistical analysis. It was verified that there are a normality tendency for the attributes. Geostatistical analysis showed spatial dependence. As a conclusion, the summer rainfall in Minas Gerais State has spatial dependence and it should be considered for estimations. Key words: spatial statistics, semivariograms, kriging, rainfall. APPLICATION OF GEOSTATISTICS METHODS TO IDENTIFY SPATIAL DEPENDENCE IN FAN SYSTEMATIC DESIGN. Melissa Lombardi Oda, Depto de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ,Caixa Postal:9, Piracicaba/SP, CEP:13418-900, e-mail: [email protected]; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Jr., Prof. Depto de Estatítica, UFPR, e-mail: [email protected]; José Luis Stape, Prof. Depto de Ciências Florestais, ESALQ/USP, e-mail: [email protected]; Décio Barbin, Prof. Depto de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, e-mail: [email protected] It will be applied geostatistical methodology to verify the spatial dependence in a \fan” systematic design, taking itself in consideration: a) elimination of the data of the neighboring plants to the missing values; b) the information of occurrence of missing parcels; c) the time of occurrence of the death of the plant. GEOSTATISTICAL SIMULATION WITH DIFFERENT DEGREES OF SPATIAL DEPENDENCE IN A SYSTEMATIC DESIGN Melissa Lombardi Oda, Depto de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ,Caixa Postal:9, Piracicaba/SP, CEP:13418-900, e-mail: [email protected]; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Jr., Prof. Depto de Estatística, UFPR, e-mail: [email protected]; José Luiz Stape, Prof. Depto de Ciências Florestais, ESALQ/USP, e-mail: [email protected]; Décio Barbin, Prof. Depto de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, e-mail: [email protected]; Ana Alice Pilon, Prof. Depto de Estatística, UFPR, e-mail: [email protected] The objective of this work is to compare simulated models and methods of estimation of parameters that consider presence e importance of the spatial information in the analysis of a \fan” systematic design. SPATIAL STATISTIC MODELS APPLIED TO THE STUDY OF PARACOCCIDIOIDOMYCOSIS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN OF SÃO PAULO STATE Ligia Barrozo Simões, Departamento de Microbiologia e Imunologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo. [email protected]; José Eduardo Corrente, Departamento de Bioestatística, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo. [email protected]; Sílvio Alencar Marques, Departamento de Dermatologia e Radioterapia, Faculdade de Medicina, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo. [email protected]; Eduardo Bagagli, Departamento de Microbiologia e Imunologia, Instituto de Biociências, Universidade Estadual Paulista, Botucatu, São Paulo. [email protected] Non-spatial and spatial regression models were estimated using prevalence density of paracoccidioidomycosis and environmental predictors. Non-spatial models explained 69% of variation in prevalence density but residuals showed significant spatial dependence. Spatial lag models using simple contiguity weights and a dummy variable were calculated. Spatial effects are important when studying paracoccidioidomycosis distribution. SPATIAL VARIBILITY OF A BARE OXISOL CO2 EMISSION AND ITS RELATION TO SOIL TEMPERATURE AND SOIL MOISTURE The objective of this work was to determine the modifications in the spatial variability models of soil CO2 emission and its relation to an irrigation event. The Spatial variability models changed influenced by irrigation indicating a decrease in spatial dependence of soil CO2 emission after increasing soil moisture. COMPARISON OF THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CALCIUM IN THE SOIL, AT TWO DEPHTS USING COVARIANCE STRUCTURE EXPONENCIAL. Maria Cristina Neves de OLIVEIRA, Embrapa Soja caixa postal 231, CEP 86001-970, Londrina -PR , Décio BARBIN, Professor Titular Departamento de Ciências Exatas – ESALQ-USP, caixa postal 9, Piracicaba – SP, Cláudio Lucas CAPECHE, José Ronaldo de MACEDO, Enio Fraga da SILVA, Helga Restum HISSA, Pesquisadores Embrapa Solos, Rua Jardim Botânico, 1024, Rio de Janeiro – RJ The objective of this study was to compare geostatistc models with covariance structure exponencial using data of calcium soil content at 0-20 and 20-40 cm layers. These data set have a spatial dependence. The results were analyzed with the subroutine geoR, resulting in reliable estimates for the parameters. VARIABILIDADE ESPACIAL DOS ATRIBUTOS GRANULOMÉTRICOS DE UM SOLO NO MAPEAMENTO DE ÁREAS AGRÍCOLAS HOMOGÊNEAS. Gener Tadeu Pereira, UNESP – Jaboticabal, [email protected]; Rafael Montanari, UNESP – Jaboticabal, [email protected]; José Marques Júnior, UNESP –Jaboticabal, [email protected]; Diego Silva Siqueira, UNESP – Jaboticabal, [email protected]; Zigomar Menezes de Souza, UNESP –Jaboticabal, [email protected] The agricultural production depends on the technological innovation in the search of maximization of the profits and minimization of the environmental impact. Therefore, the spatial variability must be well known, with the goal of defining the specific management areas. REDUÇÃO DO NÚMERO DE PARCELAS UTILIZANDO DESIGN RETROSPECTIVO EM UM CONJUNTO DE DADOS SIMULADOS Luciana Pagliosa Carvalho, Escola Superior de Agricultura Luis de Queiroz, [email protected] ; Paulo Justiniano Ribeiro Junior, Universidade Federal do Paraná, [email protected] ; Sônia Maria de Stefano Piedade, Escola Superior de Agricultura Luis de Queiroz, [email protected] The purpose of this paper was the reduction of the number of locations from 144 to 80 to a simulated data-set by criterion which minimize the spatially averaged prediction variance and criterion which minimize the minimal spatially prediction variance. THE BASIC UNIT SIZE IN UNIFORMITY TRIALS Sérgio José Ribeiro de Oliveira; Lindolfo Storck; Sidinei José Lopes; Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio; Sandra Feijó; Henrique Perin Damo Optimum plot size was estimated using the maximum curvature of CV(x)=A/XB. Experimental precision was estimated by Hatheway method for different experimental arrangements. For a fixed total experimental area, experimental unit size of potato exploratory experiments affects optimum plot size estimations with the same experimental precision and variable number of treatments. HETEROGENEITY INDEX, VARIATION COEFFICIENT AND PLOT SIZE Sérgio José Ribeiro de Oliveira, Lindolfo Storck, Alessandro Dal´Col Lúcio, Sidinei José Lopes, Luiz, Fernando Dias Martini Potato yield data was gotten from 12 homogeneity trials. Each trial had 12 rows and 24 hills. One basic unit CV affects more the estimation of optimal plot size than the heterogeneity index in potato uniformity trials. UNIFORMITY TRIALS DIMENSION AND ESTIMATES OF THE OPTIMAL PLOT SIZE Lindolfo Storck (1), Dílson Antônio Bisognin (1), Sérgio José Ribeiro de Oliveira (2) - 1Departamento de Fitotecnia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, 97105-900 Santa Maria-RS. [email protected]; 2 Departamento de Ciências Exatas e Tecnológicas, Universidade Estadual de Santa Cruz, 45650-000, Ilhéus, BA Studying the relation enters the uniformity trials dimensions and the estimates of the optimum plot size and the precision of experiments with potato. Greater area allows plan experiments with more precision for evaluation the potato yields. The use of plots with six hollows in the line and the adoption lines as block increases the precision. THE INFLUENCE OF THE MOOM ON THE FERTILITY OF BOVINE CATTLE Arturo A. Z. Zavala, Dpto. de Matemática – UNEMAT, [email protected].; Luciano José Polizel, Dpto. de Matemática – UNEMAT, Starting from an empiric observation of two cattle breedings bovine, it is verified certain particularities in the reproduction of those animals, as larger incidence of birth in certain period. We know that many comments exist on the influence of the moon on natural phenomena. Before of those facts the idea appeared of developing of the moon on natural phenomena. Before of the moon on the reproduction of the bovine cattle, using systematized on the possible influence of the moon on the reproduction of the bovine cattle, using referring data to the date of birth and sex of 267 animals in the two creations for three years. To develop the research we discoursed on the historical importance of the moon for the humanity, the relationship gravitational between the Moon and the Earth and statistical contents used such as: planning of experiments, variance analysis and factorial arrangement. With the aid of the software MINITAB accomplished experiments through the analysis of the data, from where we obtain the results on the possible influence of the Moon on the reproduction of the bovine cattle. The results several, mainly, smaller fertility of the bovine cattle during the growing phase of the Moon. COMPARASION OF MIXED MODELS FOR PROPORTIONS DATA AIMING AT THE ESTIMATE OF GENETIC PARAMETERS TELDE NATEL CUSTÓDIO - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, UFLA, [email protected], DÉCIO BARBIN Departamento de Ciências Exatas, ESALQ/USP, [email protected] The objective of this work was make a comparison of the estimates of the fixed and predicted random effects, for proportions data, under the approach of mixed linear models and generalized linear mixed model. The estimates for the effects didn’t differ among the models. Keywords: Applied statistics, Linear mixed model, Generalized linear mixed model, Genetic parameters. ESTIMATIVAS DE TAMANHO DE PARCELAS EXPERIMENTAIS PARA AVALIAÇÃO DO RENDIMENTO DE GRÃOS EM TRIGO. Paulo Roberto Cecon, UFV, [email protected]; Diolindo Henriques Neto, [email protected]; Tocio Sediyama, UFV, [email protected]; Moacil Alves de Souza, UFV, [email protected]; Geraldo de Amaral Gravina, UFV, [email protected]; Luiz Alexandre Peternelli, UFV, [email protected]; Maria Aparecida Nogueira Sediyama, EPAMIG, [email protected] The objective this work was to estimate plot size for evaluation of the grain yields of wheat, under irrigated conditions in no-tillage system and conventional tillage. The method of maximum curvature and comparison of variance were used. Plots size varying between 1,6 and 2,4 m2. VARIABILIDADE DA POPULAÇÃO DE PLANTAS DE MILHO INTERFERE NA PRECISÃO EXPERIMENTAL Alberto Cargnelutti Filho, Fundação Estadual de Pesquisa Agropecuária (FEPAGRO), [email protected]; Lindolfo Storck, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Sidinei José Lopes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Alessandro Dal´Col Lúcio, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected] Population variability and its effect on experimental precision It was verified the effect replications variability on number days between seeding and tussling, plant heighter harvesting and plant population on the experimental error of corn seed yield. To reduce the experimental error for seed yield, a selection of cultivars and plant management that results in greater uniformiting in plant population. THE USE OF KRUSKAL-WALLIS TEST IN CASE SUBSTITUTION THE TRANSFORMATION OF DATA OF HETEROSCEDASTICITY: A Paulo José Pereira UNIVASF - Production Engineering, e-mail: [email protected]; Monica Aparecida Tomé Pereira UNIVASF - Psychology, e-mail: [email protected] This work approaches the application of the Kruskal-Wallis test and the transformation functions, comparing the results of these two analysis types in situations where the heterogeneity of the variances was detected in the experimental data. Key words: Kruskal-Wallis test, Transformation functions. BOOTSTRAP METHODS IN MULTIPLE COMPARISON PROCEDURES Daniel Furtado Ferreira - UFLA – [email protected]; Clarice Garcia Borges Demétrio - ESALQ/USP [email protected]; Bryan Frederick John Manly - ESALQ/USP - [email protected]; Amauri de Almeida Machado - UFPEL - [email protected] This work aimed to study and present intensive computation procedures to perform multiple comparisons and to evaluate their performances through Monte Carlo simulation computing the comparisonwise and experimentwise type I error rates and the power. The bootstrap Tukey test was considered the best, once it controlled the type I error. EXPERIMENTAL PLOT SIZE IN GRAIN SORGHUM UNDER DIFFERENT PLANTS DENSITIES Sidinei José Lopes, Lindolfo Storck, Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio, Leandro Homrich Lorentz, Betânia Brum, Valdecir José dos Santos The objective was to establish the effect of plant arrangement on the estimated optimal plot size in grain sorghum yield experiments. Models of the estimated optimum plot size that correlate variance or variation coefficient were adjusted. The plot size for grain sorghum yield experiments was 3.2m2. HOMOGENEITY OF THE VARIANCES OF EUCALYPTUS GRANDIS HILL EX-MAIDEN SEEKING LIBERATION OF SEEDLINGS OF THE NURSERY Eduardo Righi dos Reis1, Alexandre Francisco Binoto1, Alessandro Dal Col Lúcio1, Fabiano; Oliveira Fortes1, Fernanda de Oliveira1; 1 Centro de Ciências Rurais-Universidade Federal de Santa Maria-UFSM, Departamento de Fitotecnia, CEP 97105-900 Santa Maria. E-mail de contato: [email protected] This work has for objective to study the variability of the morphologic parameters (diameter and height) of Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex-Maiden for the test of Bartlett, through your variances, simulating situations of exit of seedlings of the tray and to determine the ideal time for transplant to field. KEY WORDS: diameter and height, Eucalyptus grandis Hill ex-Maiden, variances. CONDITION OF TRANSPLANT OF SEEDLINGS OF PINUS ELLIOTTII ENGELM WITH BASE IN THE HOMOGENEITY OF THE VARIANCES OF THE HEIGHT AND THE DIAMETER Eduardo Righi dos Reis1, Alexandre Francisco Binoto1, Alessandro Dal Col Lúcio1, Fabiano Oliveira Fortes1, Juarez Martins Hoppe2; 1 Centro de Ciências Rurais-Universidade Federal de Santa Maria-UFSM, Departamento de Fitotecnia, CEP 97105-900 Santa Maria. E-mail de contato: [email protected]; 2 Professor do Departamento de Ciências Florestais da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, UFSM, 97105-900 This work has for objective to study the variability of the morphologic parameters (diameter and height) of Pinus elliottii Engelm for the test of Bartlett, through your variances, simulating situations of exit of the seedlings in the tray and to determine the ideal time for transplant to field. MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION TO ESTIMATE THE INTERFERENCE LEVEL OF MORPHOLOGIC VARIABLES ON DICKSON QUALITY INDEX IN EUCALYPTUS GRANDIS HILL EX-MAIDEN Alexandre Francisco Binotto¹, Eduardo Righi dos Reis¹, Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio¹, Fabiano Oliveira Fortes¹, Fernanda de Oliveira¹, ²Juarez Martins Hoppe. ¹Centro de Ciências Rurais – Universidade Federal de Santa Maria-UFSM – Departamento de Fitotecnia, CEP 97105-900 Santa Maria, RS E-mail de contato: [email protected]. ²Professor do Departamento de Engenharia Florestal da Universidade Federal de Santa Maria-UFSM, 97105-900. Santa Maria –RS. For this study, the morphological parameters of the Eucalyptus grandis W. Hill ex-Maiden seedlings, their relationships, and the Dickson quality index were evaluated. By statistics, it was verified thet Dickson quality index is significalthy correlated on the studied variables, showing, his efficiency. Key words: Eucalyptus grandis W. Hill ex-Maiden, seedling, morphologic parameters, Dickson. GENÉTICA QUANTITATIVA APLICADA À INTERAÇÃO GENÓTIPOS X AMBIENTES Milena Pierotti Euzebio, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, [email protected]; Nelson da Silva Fonseca Júnior, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, [email protected]; Paulo Campos Granado Zerbinatti, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, [email protected]; Guilherme Garcia Gaspar, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, [email protected]; Françoise Lima Ribeiro, Instituto Agronômico do Paraná, [email protected] To relise commercial cultivates the interaction GenotypeXEnvironment hinder the selection, the regionalization, helps in the recommendation/indication. Objective: evaluate agronomic performance, revenue, stability/adaptability to favorable/unfavorable environments for bean. Two rehearsal types were used. It was proceeded, individual variance analysis, united, lineal regression. The genotypes LP99-63 and LP99-79 present larger averages. IMPLEMENTATION IN “R” OF THE MORISITA INDEX AND THE ORDINARY SEQUENCES TEST TO EVALUATE THE SPACE PATTERN OF PLANT’S DISEASE The purpose was to implement in R environment the index of Morisita tests and the ZSO index to analyse the Ordinary Sequences, used in the evaluation of the space distribution pattern of plant’s disease. It were implemented the functions “Idispersao” and “Sordinaria” providing the researcher of the applied area an agile tool to assist in the works of evaluation diseases. LEAST SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE AND EXPERIMENTAL PRECISION OF COMPETITION TRIALS OF BEANS CULTURE IN SANTA CATARINA STATE It were cataloged 120 trials beans culture, 82,5% of them showed a variation coefficient less or equal to 20%. The estimate of the regression equation, passing throught the origin, resulted a medium relation of 2,62% increase in the minimum significant difference to each 1% increase in the coefficient of variation. VARIABILITY IN EXPERIMENT OF MICROPROPAGATION OF SUCUPIRA IN DIFFERENT MEANS OF CULTURE AUGUSTO RAMALHO DE MORAIS, Prof. Depto Exact Sciences, Federal University of Lavras (UFLA), C.P. 8037, ZIP CODE 37200-000, Lavras, MG, email: [email protected]; ELISA RAMALHO DE MORAIS, Student graduation in Engineering of Food, UFLA; LUDMILLA OF CARVALHO OLIVEIRA, Student graduation in Engineering of Food, UFLA; CAMILA CRISTINA ALVARENGA, Student graduation in Agricultural Engineering, UFLA With the objective of evaluating the variability in experiments with tissue culture, an experiment was conducted, in the Department of Agriculture, of the Federal University of Lavras, Brazil, using different culture means. The variability was evaluated using the variation coefficient and difference minimum significant through combinations among numbers of repetitions and tubes for plot. Word-key: variation coefficient, experimental precision, plot size, tissue culture HETEROGENEITY OF SOIL CHEMICAL PROPERTIES IN PLASTIC GREENHOUSE AND SAMPLE SIZE Sandra Feijó, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Lindolfo Storck , Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Alessandro Dal Col Lúcio, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Sidinei José Lopes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected] The aim paper was avaliate the index of soil chemical properties in plastic greenhouse and determinate the sample size. Values of b near zero, result in coefficient of variation equals to variance of plots of unit size,independent on number of basic units avaliated. The sampling size varied for differents level confidence. Key-words: optimum plot size, index of soil variability, protected environment. CONDUCT THE VARIANCE FOR THE CULTURE OF THE ITALIAN PUMPKIN, IN EXPERIMENTS CONDUCTED IN PROTECTED ENVIRONMENTS, WITH THE WEIGHT OF THE FRUIT Ricardo Howes Carpes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Lindolfo Storck, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Bernado Zanardo, Curso de Agronomia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria; André Luiz Paludo, Curso de Agronomia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria; Davi Alexandre Vieira, Curso de Agronomia, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria SThis study had the objective to verify the variance for the the italian pumpkin, in protected environments, with the weight of the fruit, with two differences of the handle. The estimate of variance was obtained by the comparison Bartlett methods and was uniform in seventy seven per cent of crops. Key words: Curcubita pepo, protected environment, experiment planning, quality control. INDEPENDENCY OF THE ERRORS IN THE MATHEMATICAL MODEL IN PROTECTING CHILLI CULTURE Alexandra Augusti Boligon, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria; [email protected]; Leandro Homrich Lorentz; Universidade Federal de Santa Maria; [email protected]; Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio; Universidade Federal de Santa Maria; [email protected]; Sidinei José Lopes; Universidade Federal de Santa Maria; [email protected]; Lindolfo Storck; Universidade Federal de Santa Maria; [email protected] This study had the objective to verify if the experimental errors in chili production cultivate in plastic greenhouse are independent or not, using the Run Test. It was verified that the harvests middle present independents errors, while the ends don’t. Key-words: Capsicum annuum, plastic greenhouse, experimental error. MODEL OF MULTIPLE REGRESSION FOR ESTIMATE OF THE NUMBER OF FOREST FIRE IN FIELD Luciane Flores Jacobi – DE – CCNE – UFSM [email protected]; Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio – DF – CCR – UFSM adlú[email protected]; Lindolfo Storck – DF – CCR – UFSM [email protected] The main purpose of this research was to obtain the number of forest fire in Santa Maria – RS, using the multiple linear regression. The model was established and the presuppositions in the errors were violated, so the model wasn’t adequated, so another model must be find. PATH COEFFICIENTS IN DETECTION OF CROP VARIABILITY DISTRIBUTION IN CHILI INSIDE A PLASTIC GREENHOUSE Leandro Homrich Lorentz, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Alessandro Dal’Co l Lúcio, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Alexandra Augusti Boligon, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Sidinei José Lopes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Lindolfo Storck, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected] The objective was to determine the effect of the plant position and fruit characteristic in the productive variability.It was observed that it is directly associated with the whole harvested fruits, weight of the fruits in the initial harvests, and the average weight of fruits. Key words: Capsicum annuum, path analysis, spatial variability, plant position ANALYSIS OF CAUSE AND EFFECTS AMONG VARIABLES OBSERVEDS IN THE SEEDS ANALYSIS IN EXOTICS FOREST SPECIES Leandro Homrich Lorentz, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Fabiano de Oliveira Fortes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected] With the objective to determine the variables that more intervened in the seeds quality of exotic forest species in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. It was observed that the percentage of died seeds and the moisture of conservation of the lots had reduced the germination of the normal seeds. Key words: seeds analysis, path coefficients. RELATION AMONG VARIABLES IN SEEDS ANALYSIS OF NATIVES FOREST SPECIES OF THE RIO GRANDE DO SUL Fabiano de Oliveira Fortes, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Leandro Homrich Lorentz, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Alessandro Dal’Col Lúcio, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected] The objective was to determine the variables that more influence in the quality of the stored lots of native forest species seeds in Rio Grande do Sul. The percentage of germinated seeds was influenced greatly by the variables weight of a thousand seeds, seeds moisture and percentage of died seeds. Key words: path coefficients, normal seeds germination. THE USE OF CONTROL TO EVALUATE THE POSOLOGY OF MEDICINES IN PEDIATRIC PATIENTS HOSPITALIZED Daniel Merighi Iftoda, UNIMEP, [email protected]; Maria Izalina Ferreira Alves, UNIMEP, [email protected]; Arlei Coldebella, CNPSA/EMBRAPA, [email protected]; Luiz Madaleno Franco, UNIMEP, [email protected]; Luciane Cruz, UNIMEP, [email protected]; Marco Aurélio Carvalho, Hospital dos Fornecedores de Cana de Piracicaba, Marcos Vinicius Chaud, UNIMEP, [email protected]; Yoko Oshima Franco, UNIMEP, [email protected]; Manoel Roberto da Cruz, UNIMEP, [email protected]; Maria Ondina Paganelli, UNIMEP, [email protected] This paper had as mean objective to evaluate the utilization of medicines to the respiratory and antimicrobial teraphy in pediatric patients hospitalizes. Control graphics were constructed (Montgomery, 1991; Alves, 2004), based in the calculation for doses recommendation from Bevilacqua et al. (2000), Takemoto et al., (2002) and DEF (2003). THE USE OF REGRESSION TECHNIQUES ON THE EVOLUTIONARY OPERATION (EVOP) ANALYSIS Ronaldo de Oliveira Faria, Dep. de Eng. de Produção da UFV, [email protected]; Luiz Alexandre Peternelli, Dep. de Informática (Estatística) da UFV, [email protected]; Emanuel Fernando Maia de Souza, Dep. de Informática da UFV, [email protected]; Mauro Sérgio de Oliveira Leite, Dep. de Informática da UFV, [email protected] This work aimed at comparing the use of regression techniques in substitution of the usual EVOP analysis procedure. Comparing the results obtained from the conventional and the proposed procedure for the EVOP analysis in several datasets, it was concluded that regression could be used, producing similar effects estimates and conclusions. Key-words: EVOP, regression, quality improvement. PROBIT METHOD USING THE XLSTAT-DOSE: APPLICATION TO STUDY OF EFFICIENCY OF BIOLOGICAL INSECTICIDE Carla Regina Guimarães Divisão de Ensino, Escola Preparatória de Cadetes do AR, EPCAR; [email protected] - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Universidade Federal de Lavras, UFLA; Deodoro Magno Brighenti - Departamento de Entomologia, Universidade Federal de Lavras, UFLA; Marcelo Angelo Cirillo - Departamento de Ciências Exatas, Universidade Federal de Lavras, UFLA The concentration-response of insect control agents was analyzed by probit method. The XLSTAT-Dose was used to obtained results of a biological insecticide example. Different concentrations were tested on specie of wax moth and bee exposed to the Dipel using two methods. The results were presented by probit curve and CL50. Index terms: Probit, lethal concentration, lethal time. TITLE: THE SIGNIFICANT CARIES INDEX (SIC): ITS APPLICATION IN PIRACICABA, SP, BRAZIL Stela Maria Pereira, FOP/UNICAMP, [email protected]; Gláucia Maria Bovi Ambrosano, FOP/UNICAMP, [email protected]; Antonio Carlos Pereira, FOP/UNICAMP, [email protected]; Marcelo de Castro Meneghim, FOP/UNICAMP, [email protected]; Vanessa Pardi, USC, [email protected]; Eliana Aparecida Schammass, IZ/APTA, [email protected] This study aims to verify the applicability of SiC, which detect individuals with the majority of disease, and to analyze the caries distribution frequency in a population. Due to the caries polarization, the use of SiC becomes relevant and allows building a suitable design of strategies to oral health. Key words: Significant Caries Index, caries distribution. ANALYSIS OF UNBALANCED SPLIT - PLOT EXPERIMENT USING PROC GLM AND PROC MIXED Eliana Aparecida Schammass, IZ-APTA/SAA – [email protected]; Ivani Pozar Otsuk , IZ- APTA/SAA – [email protected]; José Eduardo Corrente, IB/UNESP - [email protected]; Gláucia Maria Bovi Ambrosano, FOP/UNICAMP – [email protected]; Waldssimiller Teixeira de Mattos, IZ-APTA/SAA – [email protected]. This study aims to compare PROC MIXED and PROC GLM in unbalanced split-plot experiment with whole plots in randomized blocks. PROC MIXED is most appropriate to adjust mixed linear models providing valid tests of hypotheses and adequate estimates and standard errors to all levels and combinations of factors. Key words: contrasts, standard errors, lsmeans, mixed models. VARIABILITY IN VEGETAL STUDIES INVOLVING HOMEOPATHY Fabrício Rossi, APTA/SAA, [email protected]; Edmilson José Ambrosano, APTA/SAA, [email protected]; Gláucia Maria Bovi Ambrosano, FOP/UNICAMP, [email protected]; Eliana Aparecida Schammass, IZ/APTA, [email protected]; Paulo Cesar Doimo Mendes, APTA/SAA, [email protected]; Ivani Pozzar Otsuk, IZ/APTA, [email protected]; Nivaldo Guirado, APTA/SAA, [email protected]; Paulo César Tavares de Melo, ESALQ/USP, [email protected] This study aims to evaluate the distribution of the coefficient of variation (CV) in studies of vegetal homeopathies and to propose classification criteria for CV to provide guidelines for researches regarding the CV in these studies. The medicine plants present a greater CV mean and standard deviation than horticulture plants. Key words: coefficient of variation, vegetal homeopathy. ESTATÍSTICA E TECNOLOGIA DE ALIMENTOS: UM RELACIONAMENTO CIENTÍFICO QUE CONTRIBUI PARA O DESENVOLVIMENTO DE NOVOS PRODUTOS Carolina Telo Becker, CEFET/PR; Elisa Wogel, CEFET/PR; Simone Sagrillo Biscaia, CEFET/PR; William Arthur P. L. N. T. de Mendonça Brandão, , Prof. CEFET/PR, Saraspathy Terroso Gama de Mendonça, Prof. Dr. CEFET/PR, [email protected]; Silvana Ligia Vincenzi Bortolotti Prof. Ms. CEFET/PR, [email protected] This work presents the statistics application in the development of a new product as the elaboration of the acerola ice cream pasteurized and enriched with whey and oligofructose. For such the test t , variance analysis and hedonic scale test were used to verify acceptability and preference of the product. APLICATION OF MULTIPLE COMPARISON PROCEDURES IN THE JOURNAL CIÊNCIA E AGROTECNOLOGIA LUDMILLA DE CARVALHO OLIVEIRA, UFLA, [email protected]; ELISA CARVALHO DE MORAIS, UFLA, [email protected]; AUGUSTO RAMALHO DE MORAIS, UFLA, [email protected] Several procedures of multiple comparisons have been used to explain the treatments published in experiments. The use and misuse of these tests were surveyed and assessed in articles published in the journal Ciência and Agrotecnologia. In 65,03% of these articles, the multiple comparisons were appropriately used. Keywords: statistical test, mean comparison, regression analysis BAYESIAN META-ANALYSIS OF GENETIC PARAMETERS FOR WEANING WEIGHT IN ZEBU BEEF CATTLE Bayesian meta-analysis were adequate to pool heritability estimates because this framework considers the between and within-study variances. With the fitting and development of a hierarchical model it was possible to obtain pooled heritability estimates for weaning weight whose values were: 0.24 direct effects; 0.13 maternal effects; -0.16 direct-maternal genetic correlation. RESPONSE SURFACE - EFFECT IRRIGATION DEPTHS AND NITROGEN FERTILIZATION IN AMBIENT PROTECTED IN THE PRODUCTION OF THE AMERICAN LETTUCE The response surface methodology was used to evaluate the effects of 4 irrigation depths and 4 levels of nitrogen in the culture of the lettuce. In a general way, it was verified that the best results were obtained combining high levels nitrogen with high blades of water. BOX-COX TRANSFORMATION IN MEASURES REPEATED DATA OF BEEF CATTLE Cátia Valéria Presotti, Pós-graduanda do Curso de Estatística da UFSCar [email protected]; Alfredo Ribeiro de Freitas, Pesquisador da Embrapa Pecuária Sudeste. Bolsista do CNPq. [email protected]; Waldomiro Barioni Júnior, Pesquisador da Embrapa Pecuária Sudeste; [email protected] The objective was to analyze body weight (y) data of beef cattle. From each individual were obtained nine body weight, from birth to 24 months of age. The response variable y was transformed by yl = (yl-1)/l (l ¹ 0), which was effective in reduce the asymmetry coefficients and variance heterogeneity in all weights. Key Words: Box-Cox transformation, repeated measurements, variance heterogeneity. ANÁLISE DA QUALIDADE DO PROCESSO DE ENVASE DE AZEITONAS VERDES Robert Wayne Samohyl (UFSC-SC) – [email protected]; Rosely Antunes Souza (CEFET-PR/Curitiba) – [email protected].; Silvana Ligia Vincenzi Bortolotti (CEFET-PR/Medianeira) – [email protected] This paper aims at analyzing the process quality of green olives bottling through Statistical Process Control Foods Industry. The study is based on the Statistical Quality Control since such tools can give the managers of the productive process the maintenance and improvement of the quality levels, as well as the control and guarantee of its specification aiming at the consumer’s satisfaction and the profit of the company. Thus, the concepts related to the quality control and its statistics tools were revised, as well as the concepts related to the product. The period student of the causes that affect the good working of the process were detected and they were verified if they were inside the specification in the variables being studied. Several statistics techniques are applied in these procedures; Control Graphics, Histograms,. The results showed studied characteristics do not attend the specification. Key words: Statistical Quality Control, process and green olive. A STUDY OF CLIMB REFLEX AS PARAMETER OF PHYSICAL DEVELOPMENT IN CUBS PRENATALY EXPOSED TO FUNGICIDE FENARIMOL We developed studies about physical performances of Wistar cub rats tested with respect of climb reflex, measured in seconds. These cubs have been prenataly exposed to fungicide fenarimol. The tecnique used to evaluate factor effects (gestation and lactation periods of exposure; dose and control treatments), and interactions in response was non-parametric model for repeated measures. We concluded from results that time and dose – phase interaction and caused effect in climb reflex score. Multiples comparisons showed what phase – dose combinations have caused effect in these interactions. keywords: climb reflex, cub rats, fenarimol, Analysis of Repeated Measures EXPERIMENTS, NON PARAMETRIC MODEL FOR REPEATED MEASURES, MULTIPLES COMPARISONS. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE FOR DATA THROUGH SPLIT PLOT DESIGN EXPERIMENTS Suleimy Cristina Mazin, CEMEQ/ FAEPA/ HCFMRP/ USP, [email protected]; Nazare Barata Mateus, UEM, [email protected] In some multifactor factorial experiments we may be unable to completely randomize the order of the runs. This often results in a generalization of the factorial design called a split plot design. Key words: Design, Experiments, Split-Plot QUALITY CONTROL IN SUGAR CANE COMPETITION EXPERIMENTS Daniela Giffoni Marques, ex-bolsista FAPESP, [email protected].;Dilermando Perecin, bolsista; CNPq, UNESP – Jaboticabal, [email protected].;Marcos G. de A. Landell, IAC-Ribeirão Preto, [email protected] The evaluation is made by calculating the non-attended percentage of usual variance analysis assumptions (randomness and normality of errors, variance homogeneity and model additivity and the magnitude of the coefficient of variation (CV) in each harvest of the sugar cane, which are discussed in the text. The coefficients of variation are from 3 to 14%, for the sugar cane production, ton / hectare (THC) and between 2 and 10% , for the sugar cane pol/cento (PC), suggesting that the new experiments can be improved, so that the CV fall up to 10% to the THC (which depends on the stand of culture) and up to 5% to PC. COMBINING ABILITY FOR FRUIT SET IN ACEROLA Luciana Claudia Costa, ex-bolsista FAPESP, [email protected]; Dilermando Perecin, bolsista CNPq, UNESP – Jaboticabal, [email protected]; José Everaldo Gomes, ex-bolsista da FAPESP, [email protected].; Diallel experiments have been conducted, aiming to evaluate combining abilities for the fruit set in acerola (Barbado’s cherry) clones ( Malpighia emarginata DC). The fruit set was evaluated after manual pollination in more than 1,500 different flowers (about 30 to each crossing for breeding. Considering the total mean square of diallel analysis, the general combining ability (GCA) represented about 50%, and the specific combinatory ability (SCA) and the reciprocal effects (RE), the other 50%. The methodology is an adaptation of the classic diallel, where parents are represented by self-pollination and F1’s by crossed pollination. HEURISTICS OF THE USE OF CLUSTER ANALYSIS FOR THE COMPARISON OF REGRESSION MODELS Luiz Alexandre Peternelli, Dep. de Informática, Área de Estatística, UFV, [email protected], Paulo Roberto Cecon, Dep. de Informática, Área de Estatística, UFV, [email protected], Ethel Fernandes de Oliveira Peternelli, Dep. de Biologia Animal, UFV, [email protected], Emanuel Fernando Maia de Souza, Dep. de Informática, Área de Estatística, UFV, [email protected], Mauro Sergio de Oliveira Leite, Dep. de Informática, Área de Estatística, UFV. For this study the Ward´s minimum variance approach was used. Clusters of the treatments were formed based on the data at each independet variable value and also based on the parameters estimates of the regression equations. This procedure worked very well on defining groups of similar responses. Key words: survival curves, cluster analysis, multivariate analysis. ANÁLISE DE VARIÂNCIA EM UM EXPERIMENTO FATORIAL DE DOIS FATORES COM TRATAMENTOS ADICIONAIS1 NAGIB YASSIN2; AUGUSTO RAMALHO DE MORAIS3; JOEL AUGUSTO MUNIZ4 Conduziu-se o presente trabalho com o objetivo de realizar um estudo para obtenção e justificação da análise de variância de dados provenientes de um experimento em esquema fatorial com tratamentos adicionais, visto que tratamentos adicionais são largamente usados na exp erimentação. Usando-se o método dos quadrados mínimos, desenvolveu-se a seqüência de operações para realização da análise de variância, sendo determinadas as expressões para as várias somas de quadrados que compõem a análise de variância, a composição do teste F e variâncias para contrastes entre duas médias. TERMOS PARA INDEXAÇÃO: Delineamento experimental, análise de variância, tratamento adicional. ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE OF FACTORIAL EXPERIMENTS WITH TWO FACTORS AND ADDITIONAL TREATMENTS The objective of this study was to develop the analysis of variance of data from factorial experiments with additional treatments, since such treatments are frequently used. The least squares method was used to develop the necessary steps to construct the analysis of variance. Expressions were obtained to calculate the corresponding sums of squares, F tests, and variances of contrasts among two means. INDEX TERMS: Experimental designs, analysis of variance, additional treatments. MÉTODOS DE APLICAÇÃO DA QUALIDADE EM CARNE BOVINA Nagib YASSIN1; Marcelo Gomes JUDICE2; Ivani de Oliveira Negrão LOPES3 A preocupação em encontrar uma alternativa para se chegar à qualidade de carne bovina, fez com que se desenvolvesse um trabalho onde através de uma pesquisa direta com consumidores da carne bovina conseguisse chegar a uma qualidade exigida pelos consumidores em geral. Desenvolveu-se um questionário que foi aplicado diretamente a alguns consumidores de carne bovina para verificar se existiu ou não alguma dependência entre as variáveis testadas, para tanto foi aplicado um teste não paramétrico, (qui-quadrado) o qual nos forneceu os resultados da pesquisa. Os resultados apresentados nos mostraram que existiu uma grande dependência entre as variáveis analisadas, mostrando portanto que o consumidor de uma maneira geral está preocupado com a qualidade da carne consumida. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Carne bovina, Qualidade, Qui-quadrado, Satisfação,Survey PLOT SIZE AND GENETIC PARAMETERS ESTIMATES IN SUGAR CANE FAMILIES Mauro Sérgio de Oliveira Leite, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, [email protected]; Luiz Alexandre Peternelli, Dep. de Informática – Setor de Estatística, UFV, [email protected]; Márcio Henrique Pereira Barbosa, Dep. de Fitotecnia – UFV, [email protected]; Emanuel Fernando Maia de Souza, Dep. de Informática – UFV, [email protected]; Ronaldo de Oliveira Faria, Dep. Engenharia de Produção – UFV, [email protected] The aim of this study was to investigate the optimum sample size for genetic parameters estimates in sugar cane families. Two methods were considered. Plots with two rows may be considered for most production traits. Heritability estimates decrease with the reduction of plot sizes. Key words: family selection, variance components, Saccharum spp. CROSS-OVER EXPERIMENTS WITH REPEATED MEASUREMENTS: A REVIEW PEDRO FERREIRA FILHO - Departamento de Estatística – UFSCar; DALTON FRANCISCO DE ANDRADE - Departamento de Informática e Estatística – UFSC; CICILIA YUKO WADA - Departamento de Estatística – IMECC – UNICAMP In this work we show a brief review about cross-over experiments with repeated measurements within periods. USING DUMMY VARIABLES ON THE ANALYSIS OF FACTORIAL EXPERIMENTS APPLIED TO CROP SCIENCES Danielle Pires Coutinho, Dep. de Produção, UFV, [email protected]; Luiz Alexandre Peternelli, Dep. de Informática, Área de Estatística, UFV, [email protected]. We considered the use of dummy variables on the analysis of a factorial experiments with two factors, one qualitative and one quantitative. After defining the apropriate coding of the dummy variables representing the qualitative factor levels, it is shown that the analysis is made faster and simpler. Key words: regression models, qualitative factor, quantitative factor. ACCURACY OF THE ADJUSTED F TESTS OF THE UNIVARIATE ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE IN LONGITUDINAL DATA João Riboldi([email protected]), Marília C. Zordan([email protected]), Vanessa B. Leotti([email protected]) - Departamento de Estatística, UFRGS In these work we evaluate, by simulation, the accuracy of the adjusted F tests, of the univariate analysis of variance in longitudinal data, applying the Huynh-Feldt and Geisser-Greenhouse corrections, and if this accuracy depends on the structure of the covariance matrix of the data. EFEITOS DA INTERAÇÃO DE UM EPISÓDIO DE DESNUTRIÇÃO ASSOCIADO AO CONSUMO CRÔNICO DE ETANOL Naila S. S. Moura, graduação de Estatística/UFMG, [email protected].; Glaura C. Franco, professora do Departamento de Estatística /UFMG, [email protected]; Ângela M. Ribeiro, professora do Departamento de Bioquímica-Imunologia/UFMG, [email protected]; Sílvia R. Castanheira Pereira, Departamento de Psicologia/UFMG; Felipe A. S. Gualberto – graduação de Medicina/UFMG,[email protected]; Lucas S. N. M. Pinto - graduação de Medicina/UFMG, [email protected]; Vivian A. A. Coelho - graduação de Medicina/UFMG The objective of this work is to evaluate the effect of the interaction between chronic consumption of ethanol, restriction and alimentary malnutrition for behavioral and biochemical parameters, using the statistical techniques of analysis of variance for independent and dependent variables and the Kruskal Wallis test. THE MODEL CONSTRUCTION IN LONGITUDINAL DATA: CHOOSING FIXED AND RANDOM EFFECTS AND COVARIANCE STRUCTURES MODELING Stela Maris de Jezus Castro, UFRGS, [email protected]; [email protected]! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. João Riboldi, UFRGS, A data set arising from a longitudinal experiment was analyzed in the context of covariance structures by means of mixed linear models. The segmented regression model fitted had one random and five fixed effects. This methodology can be applied in situations in which traditional methods of analysis cannot be applied. COMPARISON OF MORPHOLOGIC ASPECTS AMONG FEMALES IS MALE OF ONCIDERES DEJEANI THOMPSON, 1868 (COLEOPTERA: CERAMBYCIDAE) Mara Rúbia Machado Couto, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Paula Machado dos Santos, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Luciane Flores Jacobi, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Rita de Cássia A. S. Sefrin, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Ervandil Corrêa Costa, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]; Valdecir José dos Santos, Universidade Federal de Santa Maria, [email protected]! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The objective of this work it was the study of the morphologic and the use of parameters in the identification of the sex of Oncideres dejeani. He/she took place the Teste U of Mann-Whitney to find significant differences to 5% of mistake probability among the couples of insects. The study of the morfometria in 25 couples of Oncideres dejeani (Col., Cerambycidae) it showed that the parameters size of the body and of the antennas they are to identify the sex of this species. Keyword: acacia - black, sawyer, given morfophologic EVALUATION OF MATHEMATICAL MODELS FOR DEGRADATION OF CONCENTRATED AND VOLUMOUS IN BOVINE EUCLIDES BRAGA MALHEIROS, Faculdade de Ciências Agrárias e Veterinárias – UNESP, câmpus de Jaboticabal. E-mail:[email protected]; JOSÉ VALMIR FEITOSA, Universidade Federal do Ceará, Forteleza CE Was studied the adjust of six models for data of crude protein (CP), neutral detergent bases fiber (NDF) and Acid detergent based fiber (ADF) of the hays of capim-Thifton 85 (TIF) of different nutritional qualities (4 and 10% crude protein), ground corn (GC), Soya grain cask (SGC) and girassol flour (GF). The criteria used for verifying the quality of adjustment were the adjusted determination coefficient, the test for lack of and the residual distribution graph. The determination coefficient and the test for lack of did not point of the differences among the non-linear models studied. ESTIMATIVAS INTERVALARES PARA O RENDIMENTO DE CARCAÇA EM BOVINOS Flávia Cristina Martins Queiroz, acadêmica do curso de matemática da UFU, °[email protected]; Wagner Frasseto, acadêmico do curso de matemática da UFU, [email protected]; Heyder Diniz Silva, FAMAT-UFU, [email protected] O rendimento de carcaça é dado pela razão entre o peso da caraça e o peso vivo do animal. Dado que a razão entre duas variáveis aleatórias normais não apresenta uma distribuição normal, avaliou-se no presente trabalho, aparir de dados experimentais, seis alternativas para obtenção dos intervalos de confiança para tal parâmetro. Verificou-se que as estimativas por intervalo do rendimento de carcaça obtidas via distribuição normal, regressão linear simples, bootstrap com aproximação normal, bootstrap simples, percentil e BCA foram bem semelhantes entre si. Palavras-chave: Bootstrap, intervalos de confiança, regressão linear. APPLICATION OF SPLIT PLOT IN TIME Lopes, A. C.; Vieira, J. K.; Melem, V. M.; Barbosa, M. J. – UEL/Londrina. The object of this paper is to apply the theory of split plot in time with medium internal temperature data and the average external temperature of three prototypes of buildings built in the UEL Campus. Between January 27, 2004 and march 19, 2004 the temperature was analised. Of the 53 days, 43 of them, the buildings were closed and the rest were open. Temperatures were collected in a shelter next to the houses. The diference between the house being opened or closed was also evaluated or if there was a diference between the houses that were built with different materials. It was analised if there was a diference in the internal average temperature during the different hours of the day. It was possible to conclude that these conditions made significant diferences in the average temperatures which we can conclude that the building offers a better sensation of chemical comfort. Words key: Analysis of variance, split plot in time, temperature, thermal comfort. PARAMETERS ESTIMATION IN THE MODEL FOR IN SITU DEGRADABILITY OF MERTENS AND LOFTEN Taciana Villela Savian, Federal University of Lavras, [email protected]; Joel Augusto Muniz, Federal University of Lavras, [email protected] We proposed evaluating the parameters of degradation model developed by Mertens and Loften. The adjustments considered weighted models and autoregressive error (AR). It was estimated the variances of the parameters estimators by two methods. The consideration of AR improved the fit of model. The jackknife method showed larger variance estimates. THE IMPORTANCE TO DETECT OUTLIERS IN RESULTS OF RESEARCH WITH INOCULATE OF SOYBEAN. Rubson Natal Ribeiro Sibaldelli, Estudante do Curso de Especialização em Estatística Experimental - Dep. de Estatística da UEL, Maria Cristina Neves de Oliveira, Pesquisadora da Embrapa [email protected] The objective this work was to present the results of data set of research with outliers in the response of nodulation in soybean. KEYWORDS: outliers, inoculate, variability, soybean, exploratory data ADAPTABILITY AND STABILITY MAIZE HYBRIDS IN BRASILIAN TROPICAL TRANSITION ZONE. Rogério de Melo Costa Pinto - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia - [email protected]; Arthur Fernando Bonelli - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia – [email protected]; Heyder Diniz Silva - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia - [email protected]; Renato S.Borges Pereira - Sementes Dow Agrociences – [email protected]; A. Esteves - Sementes Dow Agrociences The adaptability and stability of 33 mayze hybrids was evaluated by the means of Toler method. Results indicated that the methodology was useful in classifying the genotypes according to their productivity and response patterns. Seven of the 33 evaluated hybrids showed a two phase linear pattern and the others showed a simple linear pattern. Key words: GxE interaction, Toler method, two phase linear regression. Non linear models. MÉTODOS PARA MEDIR O DESEQUILÍBRIO DE HARDY-WEINBERG ATRAVÉS DE MEDIDAS DE ENDOCRUZAMENTO Talita Armborst, Estudante de Mestrado em Estatística - UFMG, [email protected]; Cibele Queiroz da Silva, Ph.D. - Departamento de Estatística - UFMG, [email protected] Estimativas da medida de endocruzamento foram comparadas utilizando-se metodologias clássicas e Bayesianas. As análises envolvem dados simulados sob vários cenários. Observou-se que os métodos clássicos tendem a proporcionar valores estimados fora do espaço paramétrico, contrariamente ao Bayesiano. INHERITANCE MODELS IN PLANT BREEDING: A BAYESIAN APPROACH Maria Imaculada de Sousa Silva, Universidade Federal de Lavras, [email protected]; Eduardo Bearzoti, Universidade Federal de Lavras, [email protected]; Júlio Sílvio de Sousa Bueno Filho, Universidade Federal de Lavras, [email protected] This study aimed at fitting genetic models of inheritance considering major gene and polygenes of minor effect in plant breeding, using Bayesian inference. The fitting of a submodel containing only major gene effects yielded a posteriori probabilities for all individuals having each of the genotypes of the major gene. Key words: major gene, polygene, Bayesian inference, breeding plant. ANALYSIS OF ALLELIC ASSOCIATION APPLIED TO THE REFINEMENT OF GENETIC MAPS AND FUNCTIONAL GENETICS Maria Jacqueline Batista, IME-USP, [email protected]; J´ulia Maria [email protected]; Alexandre Pereira, INCOR-USP, [email protected] Pavan Soler, IME-USP, The study of association between genetic risk factors and disease has gained prominence in the literature for purposes of refinement of genetic maps and functional genetics. The objective of this work is to review and to apply analyses of association to the genetic mapping of diseases, characterizing different possibilities of experimental design and the use of statistical models of analysis of data. The type of experimental design, the inclusion or not of family data, as well as the choice of the statistical methodology of analysis are decisive in the evaluation of the power of the tests and on the applicability of the association analysis for gene mapping. SELECT OF GENÉTICS MODELS USING BIC PAULO TADEU MEIRA E SILVA DE OLIVEIRA, IME-USP, [email protected].; JÚLIA MARIA PAVAN SOLER, IME-USP, [email protected] The genetic map of complex diseases, in general, involves the identification of more than one regulator gene. In this case, the amount of possible multiloci models can be very large, there may be several competing genetic models, that have similar likelihoods. In this work considering GAW 10 data We use the BIC for model selection and the Bayesian model averaging to estimation of genetic parameters. THE USE OF SPATIAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUE AND GENETIC PARAMETERS PREDICTION IN AUGMENTED BLOCKS. A CASE STUDY Emanuel Fernando Maia de Souza, Dep. de Informática – UFV, [email protected]; Luiz Alexandre Peternelli,Dep. de Informática -Setor de Estatística, UFV, [email protected]; Márcio Henrique Pereira Barbosa, Dep. de Fitotecnia – UFV, [email protected] ; Mauro Sérgio de Oliveira Leite, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, [email protected]; Ronaldo de Oliveira Faria, Dep. Engenharia de Produção – UFV, [email protected] This work aimed to compare the use of spatial analysis on the prediction of genetic parameters in augmented blocks. Two scenarios of residual variation were simulated. Results were similar for the smaller residual variation. However, with greater residual variation, better estimates were obtained for the models including spatial correlation. Key words: Augmented designs, RFLM, selection, simulation, plant breeding THE USE OF RANDOM FIELD LINEAR MODEL AND THE ESTIMATION OF GENETIC PARAMETERS IN AUGMENTED BLOCKS Emanuel Fernando Maia de Souza, Dep. de Informática – UFV, [email protected]; Luiz Alexandre Peternelli, Dep. de Informática – Setor de Estatística,UFV,[email protected]; Márcio Henrique Pereira Barbosa, Dep. de Fitotecnia – UFV, [email protected]; Ronaldo de Oliveira Faria, Dep. Engenharia de Produção – UFV, [email protected]; Mauro Sérgio de Oliveira Leite, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, [email protected] This work compared two statistical models, with and without spatial correlation analysis, on the prediction of genetic parameters. Data with increasing coefficients of variation were simulated. Better predictions were obtained with the use of spatial analysis, mainly in conditions of greater residual variation. Key words: augmented designs, RFLM, selection, variance components MODELO COM MISTURA DE MULTINOMIAIS APLICADO À IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE PROTEÍNAS SIMILARES The proteins are important molecules from the cells, whereas they take part since the construction of cell’s framing until the transmission of the genetic information between the generations. A protein can be characterized by its function and its function is determined by the sequence of amino acids that determines its structure. To determine the protein’s function is important, for instance, in a research about the cure of diseases or searching for new drugs. In this research we use a bayesian statistical methodology with mixture of multinomial and latent variables to identify proteins with similar function. We use simulations to verify the performance of the statistical model for identifying the similar proteins. At the end we apply the modeling to a real data set. ADAPTABILITY AND STABILITY MAIZE HYBRIDS IN THE STATES OF GOIAS, MINAS GERAIS AND SÃO PAULO Marcelino Alves R. de Pascoa - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia – [email protected]; Robson G. de M. Lara - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia – [email protected]; Rogério de Melo Costa Pinto - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia - [email protected]; Heyder Diniz Silva Universidade Federal de Uberlândia - [email protected]; Arthur Fernando Bonelli - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia – [email protected]; Renato S.Borges Pereira - Sementes Dow Agrociences – [email protected]; A. Esteves - Sementes Dow Agrociences The adaptability and stability of 36 mayze hybrids were evaluated by the AMMI analysis. Results indicated that Guaíra – SP, Jardinópolis – SP, Paracatu – MG e Riolândia - SP were the locals with great interaction GxE. The hybrids 03, 06, 10, 14, 20, 21 and 26, showed the lower adaptability. Key words: GxE interaction, AMMI analysis, maize breeding. PERFIL PATOLÓGICO DOS PACIENTES DE FISIOTERAPIA DO HOSPITAL LUXEMBURGO – BELO HORIZONTE / MG Jadson Robert Rocha, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; André Filipe Goulart – UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; Débora Cristina Almeida de Oliveira, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; Eduardo Fernandes Ferreira, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; Júlia Fernanda de Paula Pereira, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; Sérgio Ricardo Silva Magalhães, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected] The project presents the Luxembourg Hospital in Belo Horizonte Minas Gerais as reference on the clinic patologies in patients interned in Intensive Therapy Centers (CTI) and its clinics modalities. It was verified that were different kinds of patients. There were particular ones either patients in the Puclic System of Health (SUS). Words key: Luxembourg, Fisioterapy, Statistics. LEVANTAMENTO ESTATÍSTICO RELACIONADO AO PERÍODO DE 1997-2004 BASEADO EM UMA QUESTÃO SOCIAL: MOTIVO DE MORTE MATERNA EM BELO HORIZONTE Júlia Fernanda Pereira, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; André Filipe Goulart – UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; Débora Cristina Almeida de Oliveira, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; Eduardo Fernandes Ferreira, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; Jadson Robert Rocha, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected]; Sérgio Ricardo Silva Magalhães, UNINCOR – Campus Mário Penna, [email protected] The Maternal Death is characterized by the death of a woman during the gestation or inside a period of 42 days after the ending of the gestation. This project talks about social values in attention of the maternal mortality, with it will be assisted by an inquiry team about the reasons of the deaths. Words key: Gestation, Death, Inquiry. MULTIDIMENSIONAL INSTRUMENT ANALYSIS TO EVALUATE QUALITY OF LIFE AMONG ELDERLY WITH AN OPENED QUESTION Cinthia Esbrile Moraes – Graduanda da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu – UNESP e bolsista PIBIC/CNPQ. E-mail: [email protected].; José Eduardo Corrente – Prof. Adjunto do Departamento de Bioestatística – IB/UNESP – Botucatu, SP. E-mail: [email protected]; Tânia Ruiz – Profa. Dra. Do Departamento de Saúde Pública – Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu – UNESP. E-mail: [email protected] The aim of this work was to associate an opened question with other questions in a multidimensional instrument composed by parts of the validated ones, by applying chi-square and Fisher test. We observed that the opened question was important due as a complement of the in formations in the instrument. DESCRIÇÃO DOS NASCIDOS VIVOS NO MUNICÍPIO DE SANTA MARIA – RS, 2002 Roselaine Ruviaro Zanini – UFRGS – PPGE – Epidemiologia – [email protected]; Anaelena Bragança de Moraes – UFRGS – PPGE – Epidemiologia – [email protected]; João Riboldi – UFRGS – Depto. Estatística – [email protected] This study analysed 3496 live births and the characteristics related to their mothers using the Declarations of Live Births in Santa Maria- RS, 2002. The mean birthweight was 3121,7 g and 10,8% were low birthweight. There was variation among localities. This study suggests more complex analyse. THE POTENCIAL YEARS OF LIFE LOST (PYLL) AND THE MORTALITY ASPECT OF PARANÁ FROM 1996 TO 2001 Sofia Banzatto. Aluna do Curso de Especialização em Saúde Coletiva, UEL, [email protected]; David Banzatto. Mestrando da UNESP - [email protected]; Tiemi Matsuo. Docente do DEMA – UEL, [email protected] The PYLL indicator is an important instrument in Public Health because qualify deaths. This study evaluated the death causes with the higher taxes of PYLL from 1996 to 2001 and male/female rates to these taxes, finding higher taxes for male, overcoat by external causes. THE EFFECT OF STROMAL CELL DERIVED FACTOR 1 (SDF1) GENETIC POLIMORPHISM ON HIV-1 DISEASE PROGRESSION Reiche, E.M.V.1, Watanabe, M. A. E.2, Bonametti, A. M.1, Morimoto, H.K.1, Morimoto, A.A.1, Wiechmann, S.L.1, Breganó, J.W.1, Reiche, F.V.1, Miranda, H.C.2, Oliveira, K.B.2., Vogler, I.H.1, Siscar, A.R.1; T Matsuo3 1 Health Sciences Center, Londrina State University, Londrina, Paraná, Brazil. 2 Biological Sciences Center, Londrina State University, Londrina, Paraná, Brazil. 3 DEMA-CCE, Londrina State University, Londrina, Paraná, Brazil. A longitudinal study was conducted on the HIV-1 infected patients to evaluate the association of the SDF1 genetic polymorphism and the clinical course of HIV-1 infection. The endpoints used were the development of AIDS, death, and the slopes of the CD4+ T cell counts and HIV-1 RNA plasma levels were obtained. ESTIMATING THE PUPATION RATE OF THE DENGUE VECTOR AEDES AEGYPTI AND THE IMPACT OF BIOTIC AND ABIOTIC FACTORS Laura M. M. Vaz, Claudia T. Codeço e Nildimar Honorio - Programa de Computação Cientifica, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz We developed a mathematical model to describe the population dynamics of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti and carried out experiments to estimate one of the main parameter s, the rate of pupation, and its association with biotic and abiotic factors. The experiment followed a factorial design with two factors, larval density and amount of food. Time to pupation and time to death was recorded for each larva and survival curves were estimated using Kaplan- Meier. CORRELATION BETWEEN NON-HDL-C AND LDL-C CHOLESTEROL Matiko Okabe Seki. Universidade Estadual de Londrina, [email protected]; Tiemi Matsuo. Universidade Estadual de Londrina, DEMA-CCE, [email protected] A cross-sectional study was realized with 2054 students from 7 to 17 years. It showed that the Non-HDL-C cholesterol was highly correlated with LDL-c, and it presented better correlations than LDL with the total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-c and VLDL-c. INTERNAL CONSISTENCY OF AN INSTRUMENT TO EVALUATE QUALITY OF LIFE IN ELDERLY PEOPLE WITH AN OPEN QUESTION Cinthia Esbrile Moraes – Graduanda da Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu – UNESP e bolsista PIBIC/CNPQ. E-mail: [email protected].; José Eduardo Corrente – Prof. Adjunto do Departamento de Bioestatística – IB/UNESP – Botucatu, SP. E-mail: [email protected]; Tânia Ruiz – Profa. Dra. do Departamento de Saúde Pública – Faculdade de Medicina de Botucatu – UNESP. E-mail: [email protected] In this work, we propose to evaluate internal consistency of an instrument to measure quality of life in elderly people using a of Cronbach. We conclude that the open question is useful to validate the propose instrument. EVALUATION OVER TIME OF DIAHORREA IN CHILDREN ATTENDED AT HC/UBESP BOTUCATU, SP FROM 2002 TO 2003 José Eduardo Corrente, Departamento de Bioestatística/IB/UNESP, Botucatu/SP, E-mail: [email protected], Maria Rita Donalisio, Departamento de Medicina Preventiva e Social, FCM/UNICAMP Campinas/SP – Email: [email protected], Karina Pavão Patrício, Departamento de Saúde Pública, FMB/UNESP, Botucatu/SP – Email: pavã[email protected] Diahorrea is an important cause of mortality and morbidity in this country, particularly in children (Waldman et 0al, 1995). The aim of this work is to study cases of diahorrea in children attended at HC/UNESP Botucatu in order to evaluate the temporal its tendency in this region. BOOTSTRAP CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF QUANTILE FOR DEPENDENT DATA: AN APPLICATION IN PM10 DATA. Maria Cecília Mendes Barreto – Dept. of Statistics – UFSCar - [email protected]; Everton Gustavo Moura – Bc. Statistics – UFSCar [email protected] The quantity of particular material over 10 micra is one of five parameters of the air quality. International standards use the observations of 365 consecutive days to calculate the 90% quantile. In this work, we present some usual quantile estimators and a bootstrap confidence interval for time dependent data. AN ANALYSIS OF THE VOLATILITY TRANSMISSIONS AMONG THE DOW JONES AND IBOVESPA INDEXES Wanderci Alves Bitencourt, Graduanda em Administração de Empresas - DAE/UFLA, Bolsista de Iniciação Científica do CNPQ, [email protected]; Washington Santos da Silva, Doutorando em Estatística e Experimentação - DEX/UFLA, Bolsistas CAPES, [email protected]; Thelma Sáfadi, Departamento de Ciências Exatas DEX/UFLA - [email protected]; Daniel Furtado Ferreira, Departamento de Ciências Exatas - DEX/UFLA [email protected] We analyze the volatility transmissions among two financial indexes, the Ibovespa and the Dow Jones. In order to test for causality-in-variance, a bivariate BEKK model was estimated, and then test for the relevant zero restrictions on the conditional covariance parameters. There is no evidence of causality. Key Words: bivariate GARCH model, causality in varinace, volatility transmissions. USE OF MODELS OF TEMPORARY SERIES IN THE FORECAST OF CLIMATOLOGICAL SERIES OF THE MUNICIPAL DISTRICT OF BAMBUI, MG. This work is dedicated to the monthly, climatic series analysis from the city of Bambuí, MG, in order to make predictions. The relative humidity and temperature series have showed deterministic seasonality. The precipitation series‘s best predictions were obtained by the regressing model, while the other series‘s best predictions were supplied by stochastic SARIMA. LONG MEMORY IN VARIANCE AND VALUE AT RISK Washington Santos da Silva - DEX/UFLA, wss@u°a.br; Thelma Sáfadi - DEX/UFLA, safadi@u°a.br We perform an empirical analysis of the predictive accuracy of the fractionally integrated GARCH model, FIGARCH model, in Value at Risk forecasting using brazilian financial series. It is shown that the gaussian FIGARCH model outperforms the traditional RiskMetrics model. Key Words: FIGARCH model, Long Memory, Value at Risk. ESTUDO DAS PRECIPITAÇÕES PLUVIOMÉTRICAS ATRAVÉS DE DISTRIBUIÇÕES Inês F. U. Yada, Iapar, [email protected]; José C. Gomes, Iapar, [email protected]; Paulo H. Caramori, Iapar, [email protected]! A origem da referência não foi encontrada. The present work had as objective to analyse the beha vior of monthly precipitations of Londrina–PR, in the period from 1960 to 2003. The study included the distributions gamma, normal and exponential. The information obtained with the distributions can be useful to subsidise agricultural projects. The qui-square test was used to verify the adjustment of the distributions. It was concluded that the gamma distribution had the best adjustment to the data. IDENTIFICATION OF THE SEASONAL ITEMS OF THE BASIC BASKET OF THE COUNTY OF LAVRAS, MG This paper is intended to analyse the series of cost of basic basket of county of Lavras, MG, and the prices of 17 products that compose it to verify the existence of seasonal variation. The series of rice, beef, orange, tomato and the cost of basket showed seasonal variation. UMA APLICAÇÃO DA CO-INTEGRAÇÃO E DO MECANISMO DE CORREÇÃO DE ERROS NO MODELO DE PREVISÃO DO PREÇO DA CARNE BOVINA NO ESTADO DE SANTA CATARINA Manoel Domingos Filho, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), [email protected].; Robert Wayne Samohyl, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), [email protected]; Gueibi Peres Souza, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), [email protected]; Rodrigo Gabriel de Miranda, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina (UFSC), [email protected]. The objetive of this work is to apply forecast techniques to predict the price of the arroba of the fat ox person in the State of Santa Catarina. For this, the techniques of error-correction co-integration and mechanism had been applied, in a model of dynamic regression, beyond the Box-Jenkins methodology, for auto-regressive models, aiming at to also find a model univariado. For the construction of the econometrical model of dynamic regression some macroeconomic variable had been used as regressoras, in order to catch the influence of the local conjuncture in the determination of its price. Key-Words: Autocorrelaion, Dynamic Regression, Co-integration and ARIMA. ANÁLISE HARMÔNICA APLICADA A DADOS DE PRECIPITAÇÃO PLUVIOMÉTRICA João Ricardo Viola dos Santos, IAPAR , [email protected].; Fábio Luis Pirola, bolsista do CNPq/PIBIC/IAPAR, [email protected]; Inês Fumiko Ubukata Yada, IAPAR, [email protected].; José Carlos Gomes, IAPAR, [email protected] The purpose of the present paper is to study the monthly precipitations rainfall of the city Londrina, PR., using harmonic analyses, trough their harmonic components and synthesize those components wich showed significance. The regression equation obtained by the results of the harmonic analysis from the total of 46 years was adjusted to one year and is presented: This equation explain 96,6% of variations of monthly precipitations rainfall. CONTROLE PARA DADOS INDIVIDUAIS NO ACOMPANHAMENTO DA TAXA DE GLICOSE ATRAVÉS DA METODOLOGIA DE SÉRIES TEMPORAIS Angela Isabel dos Santos Doutorando em Epidemiologia – UFRGS – Porto Alegre, RS - Brasil Departamento de Estatística – UFSM – Santa Maria, RS - Brasil e-mail:[email protected]; Tiane Camargo Acadêmica do Curso de Medicina da ULBRA – Canoas, RS - Brasil e-mail: [email protected]; Mariane Camargo Curso de Mestrado em Odontologia – Centro de Pesquisas Odontológicas – São Leopoldo Mandic – Campinas, SP - Brasil e-mail:[email protected] This paper, intends to discuss and to evaluate the performance of models ARIMA with intervention for the area of the health. One daily used glucose the measured taxes of a considered patient diabetic. The joined model was AR(2) with five significant interventions. The coefficient of determination was 84%. Keywords: Taxes of glucose, Intervention, Models ARIMA. BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURAL WORKERS MORBIDITY STUDY: THE APPLICATION OF EXPLANATORY ANALYSIS AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODELS ADJUSTMENT Idemauro Antonio R. de Lara1- 1 Docente – UNIMEP: [email protected];Ângela M.C.Jorge Corrêa2 - 2 Docente - UNIMEP: [email protected]; Maria Imaculada de Lima Montebello3 - 3 Docente - UNIMEP : [email protected]; Fabíola C. Ribeiro de Oliveira4 - 4 Bolsista PIBIC / CNPq – UNIMEP: [email protected] In this paper the conditions of self evaluation of workers´health engaged in the brazilian agricultural sector are analyzed from the available informations on microdata data file in PNAD 1998, and in its additional supplement regarding health. For this categories had been created to the variable response (morbidity) and for the explanatory variable. Aiming to study the morbidity conditions they had adjusted linear generalized models (Logistic Model) to fit the probability of person to declare his health situation as being good (morbidity) as function of covariable for each one of the select occupational categories: employees, worker self owner, employer and worker not remunerated. The models that had been adjusted better to the data area selected by Deviance Analysis( Mc Cullagh & Nelder, 1989). Key words: morbid, PNAD, agricultural worker, logistic model AN APPLICATION OF GENERALIZED LINEAR MODELS FOR DOSE-RESPONSE DATA IN A BIOASSAY OF CONTROLLING THE MOSQUITO AEDES AEGYPTIS Alexandre G. Patriota, DEMA/UFC, [email protected]; S´1lvia M. de Freitas, DEMA/UFC, [email protected]; JoÜao Maur´1cio A. Mota, DEMA/UFC, [email protected] In this paper we analyze a data set from biological control assay that has been conducted at the Laboratory of Biology of the University State of Cear´a, Brazil. This assay looked at the toxicity of extracts of plants (at concentrations of 1, 10, 50 and 100 ppm) as an alternative to the traditional methods to control the mosquito Aedes Aegyptis. The generalized linear model framework was used to model the proportions of dead larvas as a function of concentration. We used a logit link function and concentration as an explanatory variable. The concentration which causes 50% and 90% of death, LC50 and LC90, were calculated and their confidence intervals were obtained using Fieller’s theorem. Key-words: generalized linear models, logit, dose-response, LC50, LC90. APPLICATION OF THE EXTENDED AID METHOD IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF SUSCEPTIBILITY OF POULTRY LINES TO COCCIDIOSIS (EIMERIA TENELLA) PRESOTTI, C.V; BARRETO, M.C.M., BERTANI, G.R.; COSTA, C.A.F.;BARIONI Jr, W.; FREITAS A.R An extension of Automatic Interaction Detection algorithm based in the Scott-Knott method was discussed. This extension it is used in generalized linear models using as group homogeneity measure a statistic based in a deviation function. This statistic was applied in an experiment with six treatments: three poultry lines (CC, CCc and TT) and two inoculations levels: inoculated and non inoculated with Eimeria tenella. Key Words: AID, AID Method Extension, Generalized Linear Models, Method of Cluster, Scott-Knott Method. CURVAS DE CRESCIMENTO NÃO LINEARES OBSERVAÇÕES PESO-IDADE DE BOVINOS NELORE EXPONENCIAIS APLICADOS A Kleber Régis Santoro, Universidade Federal do Vale do São Francisco – UNIVASF, [email protected] To Fu Ma, Universidade Estadual de Maringá – UEM, [email protected]; Severino Benone Paes Barbosa, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco – UFRPE, [email protected] Nonlinear exponential models are frequently used in animal production. This work had goal to verify what model between: Weibull, gompertz, logistic, double logistic, Mitscherlich, Richards, von Bertalanffy, modified von Bertalanffy and Brody were more adequate do describe weight-age observations. The most adequate was double logistic curve and de worst Weibull. PROGRAMAÇÃO MULTIOBJETIVO APLICADA À PROBLEMAS DE BIOMASSA RESIDUAL DE COLHEITA DA CANA-DE-AÇÚCAR Gilmar Tolentino, [email protected].; Helenice de Oliveira Florentino, Depto de Bioestatística, IB, UNESP 18618-000, Botucatu, SP, [email protected].; Maria Márcia Pereira Sartori,. EDUVALE AVARÉ, 18705-050, Avaré, SP. With the gradual reduction in pre-harvest burning, the straw derived from raw sugarcane harvest has become a focal point for researchers and producers alike. The advantages to be gained from harvesting, recovering, and using it have motivated university researchers, and sugar mill managers and directors to look for the most productive, economic, and efficient ways of using it. Harvesting the straw is done in three phases: first it is bundled together by a compacting machine, it is then loaded into trucks, and finally transported to the processing center. The advantages of using this residue are linked to the cost and energy balance – the energy generated by the biomass less the energy used in the process. In this work we propose mathematical techniques to help choose the best sugarcane varieties to optimize harvest residual biomass energy balance and minimize collection and transportation costs from the field to the production center, in addition to satisfying all the mill’s needs. Key Words: mathematical model, residual biomass, sugarcane. ANAEROBIC APPROACH THERESHOLD ESTIMATION A TWO STAGES LINEAR REGRESSION Vanessa Neves de Oliveira, Ms sutdent in Genetics and Biochemistry - INGEB-UFU, [email protected]; Heyder Diniz Silva, FAMAT-UFU, [email protected] Fued Salmen Espindola, INGEB-UFU [email protected] A two stages linear regression model was used to estimate the anaerobic threshold. A conditional least squares method was used to estimate the threshold. REGRESSION MODELS TO DETERMINE THE VARIABILITY ESTABILIZATION OF METABOLIZABLE ENERGY DATA IN POULTRY A. Coldebella, V. S. de Avila, P. A. R. de Brum, W. Barioni Júnior and A. Paula The objective of this paper was to show the use of plateau model with linear response as a decision tool in biological experiments. Through this model it was suggested that a four day period of total excreta collection is enough to estimate apparent metabolizable energy values in poultry studies. THE BALANCE AGRICULTURAL BUSINESSES OF BAHIA AND PERNAMBUCO AND THE MANGO PRODUCED IN SÃO FRANCISCO VALLEY: A SPURIOUS CORRELATION Paulo José Pereira UNIVASF - Production Engineering, e-mail: [email protected]; Monica Aparecida Tomé Pereira UNIVASF - Psychology, e-mail: [email protected] Juazeiro and Petrolina stand out nationally as big producing of mango. This work makes considerations about a possible correlation among the balance of the Balance Agricultural Businesses of Bahia and Pernambuco and the mango production in the municipal districts between 1990 and 2003. Key words: Agricultural Businesses, correlation, Juazeiro, mango, Petrolina. MARKER-ASSISTED SELECTION FOR SOYBEAN RESISTANCE TO HETERODERA GLYCINES, RACE 3 Sybelli Magda Coelho Gonçalves Espindola, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected] ; Osvaldo Toshiyuki Hamawaki, Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected] ; Luis Fernando Alliprandini, Syngenta Seeds LTDA, [email protected] ; Cristhiane Abbeg Bothona, Syngenta Seeds LTDA, [email protected] The the efficiency of marker assisted selection with Sat-168 and Sat-141 associated to SCN, race 3, was evaluated. Resistance QTL on identification of resistant genotypes was analysed trough a contingency table considering the genotypic versus phenotypic evaluation. In this population, these markers showed as a useful tool for selection of SCN, race 3. i NELORE FEMALE MEAN GROWTH CURVE BY NON LINEAR MODELS Leandro Candido Brasão, Heyder Diniz Silva, FAMAT-UFU, [email protected].; Broady, Von Bertalanffy, Logistic and Richards growth models for Nelore female mean growth curves was evaluated. Broady model was the one with best fitted to the data. Key words: Non linear models, mean prediction error, bovine. ESTIMATION OF COEFFICIENTS OF THE SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION EQUATION BY THE NONPARAMETRIC METHOD The objective was to compare the estimates for the coefficients of the simple linear regression model by the nonparametric method. We concluded that the estimates we found by the two methods were very close, with small differences among the mean squared error of the three equations. DYNAMIC FORECASTING OF OCCUPATION TAX OF UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL OF SANTA MARIA USING REGRESSION The main purpose of this research was forecast the occupation tax of University Hospital of Santa Maria in the emergency room. The data collected monthly from January, 2002 to December, 2003. This forecast will be used by the hospital to better deal with patients that looking for hospital services. THE JOHNSON SYSTEM DISTRIBUTION OF PROBABILITY APPLIED TO FITTING THE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION AT PARAÍBA - BRAZIL José Raimundo de Souza Passos Departamento de Bioestatística IB/UNESP – Botucatu - SP – Brasil. [email protected]; Sheila Zambello de Pinho Departamento de Bioestatística – IB/UNESP – Botucatu SP – Brasil. [email protected]; Maria Teresinha T. Tornero Departamento de Bioestatística – IB/UNESP – Botucatu - SP – Brasil. This work has the objective for comparing the Johnson Distribution System of Probability with Gama, Weibull and Normal probability models, in fitting anual precipitation data of four localities in Paraíba, Brazil. For the Johnson Distribution System of Probability, the subfamily choice was SU. Using the percentile method, the results show that the adequacy to fit a data set, expressed by variety of shape taked for the four localities. The Gamma model also shows the adequacy to fit a data set, excepted for one of the four cities. In the other hand, Weibull and Normal models doesn’t fit anyone.The percentile method used in the Johnson System shows that there is no best value for the normal percentiles, like the value 0.5 suggested by Shapiro & Gross (1981). For this value ranging 0,01 to 1, step 0,1, SU fitted well more than 70% in all localities. The results shows that the subfamily SU fits the four historical precipitation series. THE STUDY OF THE CONSISTENCY OF QUESTIONNAIRE TO ETHICAL DISCERNMENT OF STUDENTS FROM UNIVERSITY IN ADVERTISING WITH SEXUAL APPEAL To evaluate the ethical discernment of students in relation to an advertising campaign, using strong sexual appeal, was applied a questionnaire and utilized the Cronbach´s alpha coefficient to evaluate its consistency. The F test showed difference among the genus. Ther coefficient show high correlation between purchase intention and mark. NONLINEAR MODELS FIT EVALUATION: AN APLICATION IN NELORE CATTLE GROWTH CURVE Patrícia Neves Mendes, UFLA ([email protected]); Joel Augusto Muniz, UFLA ([email protected]); Fabyano Fonseca e Silva, UFLA ([email protected]); Tarcísio de Moraes Gonçalves, UFLA ([email protected]); Luiz Henrique de Aquino, UFLA ([email protected] The Brody, Gompertz, Logistic and Von Bertalanffy nonlinear growth models was fitted to of weigth-age data of Nelore cattle. The choose of the best model was done by Adjusted Determination Coefficient, Residual Standard Deviation, the Durbin-Watson test and iteration number. The Brody model showed the best results. Key words: Growth curve, nonlinear models, Nelore cattle. ADEQUAÇÃO DE MODELOS NÃO LINEARES A OBSERVAÇÕES CRESCIMENTO DE BOVINOS COM GANHO COMPENSATÓRIO PESO-IDADE DE Kleber Régis Santoro, Universidade Federal do Vale do São Francisco – UNIVASF, [email protected]; Severino Benone Paes Barbosa, Universidade Federal Rural de Pernambuco – UFRPE, [email protected]; To Fu Ma, Universidade Estadual de Maringá – UEM, [email protected] Nonlinear growth models had a sense that growths rate had ever positive value. These work investigated animals with non-common growth rate with thirteen nonlinear models to adjust weightage data. The best model is double logistic and the less is Morgan-Mercer-Flodin. Nonlinear models must be developed to adjust to that data. GENERATION DATA SYSTEM IN ANIMAL GENETICS BY MONTE CARLO SIMULATION USING THE R SOFTWARE Ricardo Luis dos Reis, DEX-UFLA, [email protected].; Joel Augusto Muniz, DEX-UFLA, [email protected].; Fabyano Fonseca e Silva, DEX-UFLA, [email protected].; Luiz Henrique de Aquino, DEX-UFLA, [email protected].; Tarcisio de Moraes Gonçalves, DZO-UFLA, [email protected] The R software was used for generate data of additive genetic variance and imbreending coefficient in selected and no selected populations. The results showed the efficiency of Monte Carlo simulation method, device the your capacity of represent the behavior of real populations. KeyWords: Monte Carlo simulation, additive genetic model, software R. GROWTH CURVE ANALYSIS BY MICHAELIS-MENTEN EQUATION Eustáquio José Machado1 - 1 Professor Assistente do Departamento de Ciências Exatas – UFAC e Mestrando em Estatística e Experimentação Agropecuária., Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), [email protected]; Joel Augusto Muniz2 - 2 Professor Titular do Departamento de Ciências Exatas., Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), [email protected].; Fabyano Fonseca e Silva3 - 3 Professor Substituto do Departamento de Ciências Exatas - UFLA e Doutorando em Estatística e Experimentação Agropecuária., Universidade Federal de Lavras (UFLA), [email protected] Michaelis-Menten Equation was used to describe growth curves of 453 Nelore animals. The estimates was obtained by three methods: nonlinear regression and two linear transformations. The nonlinear regression show the best results device the biological interpretation of your parameters estimates. EVALUATION OF THE INDEX OF DIFFICULTY OF QUESTIONS OF THE SELECTIVE PROCESS OF AS THE SEMESTER OF 2004 OF AN INSTITUTION OF SUPERIOR EDUCATION Alessandra Querino da Silva, UFLA, [email protected]; Marcelo Silva de Oliveira, UFLA, [email protected] In selective processes it must have questions with different degrees of difficulty, to evidence the individual differences of the candidates. This work has for objective to evaluate the distribution of the index of difficulty (ID) of the questions, aiming at a continuous improvement of the questions of selective processes of an Institution of Superior Education (IES). Key Words: Index of difficulty, Test Qui-square. PHYTOTOXIC EVALUATION FROM CENCHRUS ECHINATUS (TIMBETE) EXTRACTS Gláucia Aparecida Andrade, UFU, [email protected].; Douglas Messias Lamounier Camargos Rezende, FASF, [email protected].; Manuel Gonzalo Hernandez Terrones, UFU, [email protected] This work was objectived to evaluate the root and caulis extracts phytotoxic effect from Cenchrus echinatus by germinations essays in Panicum maximum, Lolium perene, Amaranthus hypocondriacus, Trifolium alexandrinum e Physalis ixocarpa. It was concluded that Cenchrus echinatus has inhibitory action and the root has more inhibitory action than caulis. Key words: Phytotoxic Evaluation, Cenchrus echinatus; Qui-square test. THE MENSURATIONS NUMBER OF THE EGGS USING DIFFERENT STATISTICAL METHODOLOGIES CAMILA AFONSO BERNADES (Acadêmica do curso de Medicina Veterinária – FAMEV – UFU – Bolsista PIBIC/CNPq; [email protected]); MARCELO TAVARES (FAMAT - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected] ); EDNALDO CARVALHO GUIMARÃES (FAMAT - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected]); PAULO LOURENÇO DA SILVA (FAMEV - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected]); MARA REGINA BUENO MATTOS NASCIMENTO (FAMEV - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected]) The purpose of this work was to determine the number of mensurations for characteristics of eggs, using different statistical methodologies. It was not verified differences accentuated considering two lineages. Words key: Mensuration, repeatability, statistical. A STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIPS CHEMICAL AND PHYSICS ATTRIBUTES OF THE SOIL AND PRODUCTIVITY OF THE SOYBEANS FERNANDA BONUTTI (Acadêmica do curso de Matemática – FAMAT – UFU – Bolsista; PIBIC/FAPEMIG, [email protected]); MARCELO TAVARES (FAMAT - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected]); EDNALDO CARVALHO GUIMARÃES (FAMAT - Universidade Federal de Uberlândia, [email protected]) The purpose of this work was to estimate the coefficients of correlation of Pearson, partial, canonical and to evaluate the direct and indirect effects between physics and chemical attributes in the soybean productivity. The physical attributes were more correlated with the productivity than the chemical attributes Key words: Correlation, path analysis, canonical correlation, soybean. MONOMOLECULAR AND AUTOCATALYTIC MODELS AND APPLICATTIONS CARVALHO, LÍDIA RAQUEL 1 PINHO, SHEILA ZAMBELLO1, 1Departamento de Bioestatística –IB – UNESP -Botucatu One problem of interest in nonlinear models is to determine when the difference between the asymptote and the adjusted function is not significant. Tree methods were utilized, the 95% confidence interval for Y, the Student t test and the segmented regression. The segmented regression brought the minor value of x. USO DE MÉDIAS MÓVEIS NA DETERMINAÇÃO DO EFEITO DA CONTRIBUIÇÃO DE CULTIVARES NO ACRÉSCIMO EM PRODUTIVIDADE NA CULTURA DA SOJA EM 23 ANOS. Sergio Renato Artiaga da Rosa1; José Carlos Seraphin2.1. Engenheiro Agrônomo, Doutorando em Agronomia pela Escola de Agronomia e Engenharia de Alimentos - UFG, Área de concentração: Produção Vegetal. Email: [email protected] 2. Professor do Departamento de Estatística, Instituto de Matemática e Física, UFG, Campus Samambaia. Caixa Postal 131, CEP 74001970 Goiânia, GO. Email: [email protected] The proposed methodology, it allows to discriminate among the effects that it has been contributing to the growth in productivity in the last 23 years, for the soybean growth, in the State of Goiás. The largest observed contribution (2,42%), it’s due to them environmental modification of the producing areas. ASSESSING THE ATTRIBUTES THAT INFLUENCE THE QUALITY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BEETWEN COMPANIES USING CONJOINT ANALYSIS Ronaldo de Oliveira Faria, Dep. de Eng. de Produção da UFV, [email protected]; Carlos Henrique Osório Silva, Dep. de Informática (Estatística) da UFV, [email protected]; Priscila Machado dos Santos, Dep. de Eng. de Produção da UFV, [email protected]; Renner L. D. Alves , Dep. de Eng. de Produção da UFV, [email protected]; Carlos Guilherme B. da Silva, Dep. de Eng. de Produção da UFV, [email protected] In this study we used conjoint analysis to interpret the effects of some important factors that affect quality of relationship between companies. It was concluded that the factors confidence, integration and profit contribute for a better relationship, while that the factor power is prejudicial. Key-words: conjoint analysis, quality, relationship between companies. THE MARKETING INFORMATION IN THE COMPANIES OF LONDRINA: AN EXPLORATORY INVESTIGATION Cláudio Luiz Chiusoli, Universidade Estadual de Londrina [email protected] ; Profa Dra Ana Akemi Ikeda, Universidade de São Paulo, [email protected] ; Profa Dra Tiemi Matsuo, Universidade Estadual de Londrina, [email protected] Word-key: system of marketing information, competitive intelligence, marketing, companies and competitiveness The executives come across unfavorable situations and they need to make decisions with base in your own judgement. The article presents through a bibliographical revision and researches exploratory close to 90 companies significant associations among the variables that register the use of the marketing information for the organizations. ALGORITMO PARA A COMBINAÇÃO DE MODELOS DE CLASSI.CAÇÃO Josimara Aparecida Mazucheli, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, [email protected]; Francisco Louzada Neto, Universidade Federal de São Carlos, [email protected] When we work with great data base the traditional statistical methods always will supply signi.cant estimates. A possibility to solve this problem is to work with prediction models. Moreover, to increase the value of the prediction, we introduce the methods boosting that, for a weighed voting, it combines several answers of some models of classi.cation of same nature. Word-key: boosting, adaboost, models of classi.cation, prediction models, trees of classi.cation . COMPARISON OF THE KOLMOGOROV-SMIRNOV, ANDERSON-DARLING, CRAMER–VON MISES AND SHAPIRO-WILK TESTS OF NORMALITY BY SIMULATION Vanessa Bielefeldt Leotti, Alan Rodrigues Birck, João Riboldi Many statistical methods suppose that data follow a Normal Distribution. There are some non-parametric tests to verify this supposition, like Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Cramervon Mises, Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests. In this work, the efficiency of these four tests was compared by simulation, under different distributions and sample sizes. UTILIZAÇÃO DE DIFERENTES RESTRIÇÕES NA ANÁLISE DE VARIÂNCIA EM MODELOS COM COVARIÁVEL EM DADOS DESBALANCEADOS This work aims at to show the different additions of squares with the use of different restrictions when the unbalanced data in analysis of covariance, emphasizing statistical the danger to use in wrong way the software, such as the SAS (Statistical Analysis System version 8.0) and R (The R Foundation for Statistical Computing version 2.0.1), without before knowing the hypotheses for tested them. “TREE CLASSIFICATION AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION IN THE IDENTIFICATION OF RISKS’ FACTORS TO CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE” Employed Classification Tree and Logistic Regression for : to identify risks’ factors in cardiovascular disease, to describe groups with higher risk in relation at global sample and to define preventives measurements. For Classification Tree used CHAID (1984) algorithm. How expected, two technics presents results that complements and not contradictories. Ecological Communities - A exploration of Vegan/R WE EXPLORE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF VEGAN, THE COMMUNITY ECOLOGY PACKAGE BY JARI Luzia A Trinca, Depto de Bioestat´1stica- IB - UNESP - Botucatu, [email protected] Oksanen. The package includes many functions adapted for the necessities of the researchers on species communities. Here we illustrate its advantages using data from a brachyuran community sampled in the north coast of the SÜao Paulo State. SOCKET OF DECISIONS FOR PURCHASE AND THE SALE OF ACTIONS OF BRADESCO IN THE MONTH OF DECEMBER OF 2004 Tiomar Ribeiro Pedroso, [email protected] UFSM, [email protected].; Luis Felipe Dias Lopes, UFSM, This work used EPC, for socket of decisions in the purchase and the sale of actions of Bradesco. This procedure was positive, because in the respective period the process was had been of control in two moments, giving support for the socket of purchase decision and sale of the actions. STUDY OF THE PROCESS OF PRODUCTION OF CERAMIC THROUGH CONTROL CHART Enio Junior Seidel, UFSM, [email protected].; Luis Felipe Dias Lopes, UFSM, [email protected]. In this work, it was used as base of data the production of clay bricks produced by the Cerâmica Irmãos Seidel Ltda, located in the city of Pinheirinho do Vale - RS. To analyze the data it was used of the control graphs, more specifically x-bar and R. STATISTICAL MODEL TO STUDY OF NEURAL CONNECTIONS Kátia Maria Monteiro Rodrigues de Carvalho, CREFIM (Clínica de Reabilitação Física e Mental), Rio Claro, SP, [email protected].; José Roberto Campanha, Dep. de Física, IGCE, UNESP, Rio Claro, [email protected]; José Silvio Govone, DEMAC , IGCE , UNESP, Rio Claro, [email protected] In his work we obtain a statistical model to study the connections between nucleus, when it is known the number of neurons that compose these nucleus. The hypothesis is that there is a equilibrium between the propagation and the specificity of the signal. A biologic example is presented. A STATISTICAL MODEL OF NEURAL ACTIVATION USING BETA DISTRIBUTION Kátia Maria Monteiro Rodrigues de Carvalho, CREFIM; (Clínica de Reabilitação Física e Mental), [email protected].; José Silvio Govone, DEMAC, IGCE, UNESP, Rio Claro,SP, Brasil, [email protected]; José Roberto Campanha, Dep. de Física, IGCE, UNESP, Rio Claro, [email protected] In this work we study the beta distribution applied to connections of neural populations, resulting in functions of nuclear activations. Assuming to be known the value of the connection between two nucleus in the Nervous Central System , this work obtain a new function of nuclear activation: the negative binomial distribution. MODELAGEM DE MEDIDAS REPETIDAS NUM ESTUDO DE SOMBREAMENTO ARBÓREO COM SIBIPIRUNA Manoel Carlos Gonçalves, UFMS, [email protected]; Mário Carlos Rodrigues Ayres, UFMS, [email protected]; Luiz Antônio Targa, UNESP-Botucatu, [email protected]; Paula Pinheiro Padovese Peixoto, UFMS, [email protected] The objective was to modeling two data set (temperature of black globe and globe temperature and humidity relation), in a research of shading with sibipiruna tree. The most appropriated covariance matrix structure was the Toeplitz, based on the AIC and BIC criterion. COMBINING TWO DIAGNOSTIC TESTS WITH CONTINUOUS RESULTS Arminda Lucia Siqueira, UFMG, [email protected]; Inara Fonseca, IBMEC, [email protected] There is no perfect diagnostic test, the one that correctly classi.es all individuals, for instance as diseased or not, hence the importance of assessing the correctness of tests used in medical diagnosis. The main accuracy measures are the sensibility and the speci.city, and the combination between them as well, especially the area under the ROC curve, common when the result is a continuos variable. Often multiple tests are available and therefore the combination of two or more tests is required. In this paper we present the procedures for combining two diagnostic tests using a linear score of their results such that the area under the ROC curve is maximized. The non-parametric method presents good properties and the possibility of extension to interesting situations in practice, such as incorporating the heterogeneity of patients, measured through covariables. Key words: ROC curve, medical diagnosis, speci.city, sensibility. ESTIMATION OF A SUMMARY-MEASURE OF THE CARDIAC FREQUENCY RECOVER AFTER EFFORT TEST BY NONLINEAR MODEL Marcel Frederico de Lima Taga, IME-USP, [email protected]; Rinaldo Artes, IME-USP, [email protected]; Eliseu Yung Chuang, FMUSP, [email protected]; Alfredo José Mansur, InCorFMUSP, [email protected] We used a non-linear model to estimate a summary measure to analyze a longitudinal dataset. It represents the recovery of the cardiac rate after an effort test. DIAGNOSTICS FOR MIXED LINEAR MODELS Juvêncio Santos Nobre, [email protected] IME-USP, [email protected]; Julio da Motta Singer, IME-USP, Many phenomena can be represented through mixed linear models in a satisfactory way. To validate such models it is necessary to verify whether the assumptions are satisfied and whether the model is sensitive to small deviations. For such purposes, we propose a generalized leverage matrix of the fixed and random effects as well as standardization for the conditional residual and we show how this can be useful to detect outlyng observations. We illustrate such techniques with a practical example. SIMULATED SIZE AND POWER CURVES FOR TWO LOCATION TESTS Emílio A. C. Barros, DEs/UEM Universidade Estadual de Maring´a, [email protected]; Josmar Mazucheli, DEs/UEM Universidade Estadual de Maring´a, [email protected] A typical problem in statistics data analyze consists in to test a null hypothesis H0 : µ = µ0 versus an alternative H1 : µ 6= µ0, where µ0 is some specific value of the true parameter µ. >From a random sample with normal distribution with mean µ and variance 2, both unknown, we might use the well known t-student test. As an alternative to the usual t-student test, under the symmetric supposition, we can use the nonparametric Wilcoxon test. In this paper, a Monte Carlo simulation study was conduct to calculate the empirical size and power of the t-student and Wilcoxon tests. Key-Words: Empirical Size, Power of Tests, Monte-Carlo Simulation, t-Student Test, Wilcoxon Test. APPLICATION OF THE STATISTIC MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS AND OF THE DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS (DEA) INSIDE THE STUDY OF EFFICIENCY OF GRADUATION COURSES Dr. José Carlos Dalmas. Universidade Estadual de Londrina, [email protected]. In this study there was the use of multivariate statistics, analysis of principal components to reduce the number of variables, where there was the used of data envelopment analysis (DEA) which is a technique of mathematics program not parameter that searches to evaluate the performance trough the relative efficiency of the units based on a production frontier. UTILIZATION OF THE ANALYSIS OF MULTIPLE REGRESSIONS ON STRUCTURE OF MODELS OF PREDICTION OF THE BONE´S MINERAL DENSITY IN BRAZILLIAN TEENAGERS Carla C. Silva, Tamara B. L. Goldberg, Altamir S. Teixeira, José C. Dalmas The diagnostic of osteopenia/osteoporosis is made through the examination of bone densitometry of double emission with fonts of X-ray (DEXA). This study proposes predictive equations to evaluate the bone’s mineral density (BMD) among male adolescents. The structured models of prediction used an analysis of multiple regressions “stepwise” MAIN DIAGNOSIS IN THE EMERGENCY CARE UNIT OF HOSPITAL DE OLHOS DE LONDRINA – PARANA STATE – BRAZIL Reinaldo Kimura;Daniela Sato Hasegawa; Giuliane Kira; Erika Hoyama; José Carlos Dalmas The purpose of this study is to evaluate the main causes and features observed during the emergency care evaluation of patients in the Hospital de Olhos de Londrina – Paraná – Brazil. A retrospective study of 3.474 patients evaluated in the emergency care unit from january 2003 untill december 2004 was performed. ESTUDO DA ESTABILIDADE EM DINÂMICA DE POPULAÇÕES Elias Dias Coelho Neto Nonlinear models are usually applied in theoretical ecology to describe biotic interactions. To analyze the stability of such models one can: (i) expand a quasi linear model in Taylor series; (ii) qualitatively analyze a nonlinear system. This study highlights a limitation of (i) and an example of (ii). FISH CORPOREAL LENGTH AND WEIGHT FROM JORGE PEQUENO’S RIVER, LUZ – MG Douglas Messias Lamounier Camargos Rezende, FASF, [email protected]; Geraldo Eustáquio Valente Padilha, FASF, [email protected]; Orion Boncompagni-Júnior, FASF, [email protected]; Júnia Aparecida Bernardes Afonso, FASF, [email protected]; Heide Maria Rodrigues Rocha, FASF, [email protected]; Cássio Araújo Duarte, FASF This work was objective to evaluate the fish corporeal length and weight. The fish was taken up from mechanic labor (net). The fish corporeal length and weight was different among the fish species. The fish corporeal length and weight changed month to month. Key words: Fish; Weight; Length; São Francisco River. ESTUDO DO REFLEXO DO ENSINO DA GEOMETRIA DAS SÉRIES INICIAIS NAS 5ª SÉRIES DO ENSINO FUNDAMENTAL Alice Shigueko Narimatsu Correia - Secretaria de Estado da Educação - SEED- PR. e aluna do Curso de Especialização em Ensino de Matemática da Universidade Paranaense - UNIPAR, Umuarama, Paraná. Décio Antonio Baraviera - Universidade Paranaense – UNIPAR, Umuarama, Paraná. [email protected], Orlando da Silva Universidade Paranaense – UNIPAR, Umuarama, Paraná. [email protected] The present work purposed to investigate the knowledge of the pupils of the 5th grade in relation to the geometry figures. It took part 115 pupils from the 5 th grade, classes A,B,C and D, in the morning, from Tiradentes School , Umuarama, Paraná. Palavras Chaves: Geometry, knowledge, geometry figures. MIXED MODEL TO ANALIZE THE NUMBER OF TOTAL COLIFORMS FOUND IN FOOD FROM FIVE SUPERMARKET SECTIONS IN FORTALEZA, CE, BRAZIL Alexandre G. Patriota, DEMA/UFC, [email protected]; Sílvia M. de Freitas, DEMA/UFC, [email protected] The mixed model framework was used in this work to analyze the number of total coliforms found in handled food by employees in a supermarket in Fortaleza, Cear´a, Brazil. Daily counts of total coliforms were observed in individuals (employees who handled the food) of five different sections, along one week. A mixed linear model was used to fit the rate of contamination in the handling food as a function of the sections over time, considering a random effect in the employees. The aim of the paper was to use the methodology of mixed linear models to identify which section could cause the highest rate of food contamination and which day of the week this contamination was happening. Key-words: mixed linear models, repeated measures, poisson count data. GROUP SCREENING WITH MORE THAN TWO STAGES The group screening method consists in detecting effective elements in a population by the procedure of dividing this population in observation groups and tests these groups. The objective this theory is to determine the optimum group size that minimizes the expected number of tests. The method was extend to multiple stages and compared with two stages group screening. Keywords: Group screening, Number of tests, Binomial distribution NON PARAMETRIC DENSITY ESTIMATION IN THE STUDY OF MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS IN PIRACICABA, SP, BRAZIL Silvio Sandoval Zocchi, Departamento de Ciências Exatas - ESALQ-USP, [email protected]; Renato Rodrigues Silva, ESALQ-USP, [email protected] We propose here, the use of non-parametric density estimation methods presents by Silverman (1986), in the analysis of extreme value data series, as an alternative to using the generalized extreme value distribution and its particular cases, proposed by Jenkinson (1955). In addition, we propose the use of bootstrap methods to build confidence intervals for return periods and return levels. As an illustration, do the analysis of maximum wind speeds recorded monthly during a 43 years period (1956 to 1971 and 1974 to 2000) in Piracicaba, SP, Brazil, presented by Bautista (2002). MODELLING THE MEAN NUMBER OF THRIPS TABACI IN ONION Viola, D.N., ESALQ/USP.; Ribeiro Júnior, P.J., UFPR.; Demetrio, C.G.B., ESALQ/USP.; Fernandes, O.A., UNESP/FCAV. Thrips are an important pest in onion culture however there is little knowledge of the spatial distribution of the insect on the onion fields, which is a valuable information to define menagement practices. In this work we use a Poisson geostatistical model to model the occurence on a field. COMPARACAO PARAMÉTRICO DE DUAS MÉDIAS UTILIZANDO O TESTE BOOTSTRAP NÃO Mario Hissamitsu Tarumoto – DMEC – FCT/UNESP – [email protected]; Olga Lyda Anglas R.Tarumoto – DMEC-FCT/UNESP – [email protected] A comparação de duas médias é um problema bastante comum no cotidiano de pesquisadores em geral. É freqüente a necessidade de utilização de testes de hipóteses para verificar a igualdade da medida de locação entre dois grupos. Em qualquer livro básico de Estatística Elementar é possível encontrar formas rápidas de obtenção destes testes, principalmente em situações em que as amostras são provenientes de distribuições normais. Quanto isto não é verdade, em geral, parte-se para um teste não-paramétrico, esquecendo-se de uma premissa bastante restritiva, que é o da igualdade na forma funcional entre as duas amostras. Surge como uma boa alternativa o método do Bootstrap não-paramétrico. Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal, discutir este velho problema, já abordado por muitos autores, fazendo uma discussão maior sobre esta técnica computacional. Como resultado mais importante do trabalho, em várias situações importantes, o método computacional teve uma eficiência maior comparado aos demais. PALAVRAS CHAVE: teste paramétrico, teste não-paramétrico, teste bootstrap UNIRG’S STUDENTS DIMENSION SAMPLE Anamaria Fleig Mayer, UNITRI, [email protected]; Elizangela Sofia Ribeiro Rodrigues, UNITRI, [email protected]; Marcelino Alves Rosa de Pascoa, UFU, [email protected] ; Rodrigo de Faveri Moreira, UNITRI, [email protected]; Robson Guimarães de Miranda Lara, UFU, [email protected]; Sérgio Luís Mendes, UFU, [email protected] With this paper, we purpose to dimension one student sample of UNIRG’S university. The intention is know the percentual of students smokers and activity physical practices. We used the equation ; 0,95 faith; z = 1,96; p = 0,3. With 3980 students, founded the final size: 733 students. Key words: Dimension, sample plane, UNIRG, UNITRI.