R$ Million - Bradesco RI

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK:
GLOBAL ECONOMY STILL FACES HUGE
CHALLENGES AHEAD.
AT THE SAME TIME, VERY MODEST
BRAZILIAN RECOVERY BRINGS UP
SPECULATION ABOUT THE BALANCE
AMONG CYCLICAL AND STRUCTURAL
GROWTH FACTORS.
CHALLENGES FOR THE GLOBAL ECONOMY
1. World recovery is still fragile due to fiscal
adjustments in Euro Zone and Chinese
deceleration;
2. The USA economy is better in the short run,
but recovery will be gradual and slow and
fiscal adjustment will have an important role;
3. Democratic slowdown in the emerging
economies;
6
4. International market volatility will keep high.
World economy recession is out of the game
even if we take into account all these
uncertainties.
WE EXPECT THE
GLOBAL OUTLOOK TO
IMPROVE ONLY
SLIGHTLY IN THE
SECOND HALF OF 2012.
7
DE CRESCIMENTO
DO PIB DO MUNDO (SOMA DOS PIBs OBTIDA PELA PARIDADE DO PODER DE
WORLDTAXAGDP
GROWTH
COMPRA) 1993 - 2012. Fonte: FMI/WEO. Elaboração: Bradesco
1993 - 2013
6.0
5.2
5.0
5.4
5.0
4.9
4.7
4.5
4.1
4.0
3.8
3.4
3.6
3.8
3.7
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.1
2.0
1.0
0.0
SOURCE: FMI/WEO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2013*
2012*
2011*
2010
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
8
2009
-0.6
-1.0
EURO ZONE: REAL GDP GROWTH (%)
1995-2012
5.0
4.0
4.0
3.0
3.4
2.8
2.8
2.9
3.0
2.1
2.1
1.7
2.0
1.1
1.0
3.1
1.8
1.7
1.5
0.9
0.4
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-4.2
9
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
-5.0
US: REAL GDP GROWTH (%)
1980-2012
8,0
7,2
6,0
4,5
4,3
4,0
3,5
3,2
4,1
3,8
3,6
3,4
2,5
2,9
4,8
4,5
4,1
3,7
3,5
2,5
3,0
2,8
2,5
1,9
2,0
3,1
2,2
2,7 1,9
1,8
1,7
2,0
1,8
0,9
1,1
0,0
-0,2
-0,3
-2,0
-0,3
-1,9
-3,5
-4,0
10
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORCAST: BRADESCO
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
-6,0
CHINA: REAL GDP GROWTH (%)
China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual).
Fonte: Bloomberg
1981-2013
Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco
16,0
15,2
14,214,0
14,0
13,2
12,0
14,2
13,1
11,511,3
11,2
12,7
11,3
10,9
10,0
9,3
9,3
9,2
7,8 7,6
8,0
9,6
9,1
8,5
6,0
10,4
10,010,1
10,0
9,2
9,2
8,4 8,3
8,0 7,9
5,2
4,1
4,0
3,8
2,0
11
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
0,0
MAIN CONSEQUENCES OF THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR
THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY

Brazil is much more sensible to China than to Europe. But
China is much more sensible to Europe than to US;

International outlook is deflationary for Brazil;

High levels of spare capacity in the global manufacturing
industry is a challenge for the local manufacturing sector;

Real depreciation trend, due to recent external scenario
worsening, especially considering concerns coming from
Euro Zone;

Impact on business expectations, postponing productive
investments.
12
17/10/08
14/11/08
12/12/08
09/01/09
06/02/09
06/03/09
03/04/09
01/05/09
29/05/09
26/06/09
24/07/09
21/08/09
18/09/09
16/10/09
13/11/09
11/12/09
08/01/10
05/02/10
05/03/10
02/04/10
30/04/10
28/05/10
25/06/10
23/07/10
20/08/10
17/09/10
15/10/10
12/11/10
10/12/10
07/01/11
04/02/11
04/03/11
01/04/11
29/04/11
27/05/11
24/06/11
22/07/11
19/08/11
16/09/11
14/10/11
11/11/11
09/12/11
06/01/12
03/02/12
02/03/12
30/03/12
27/04/12
25/05/12
22/06/12
20/07/12
BRAZILIAN EXCHANGE RATE R$/US$
R$/ US$
2.600
2.504
2.400
2.231
13
DEZEMBRO 2007
R$ 1,77 / US$
DEZEMBRO 2008
R$ 2,34 / US$
DEZEMBRO 2009
R$ 1,74 / US$
1.886
1.800
1.701
1.600
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
DEZEMBRO 2010
R$ 1,67 / US$
DEZEMBRO 2011
R$ 1,88 / US$
DEZEMBRO 2012
R$ 1,95 / US$
2.200
2.091
2.000
1.996
2.024
1.860
1.906 1.898
1.921
1.804
1.677
1.728
1.653
1.589
1.569
1.693
1.707
1.540
1.400
BRAZIL ALREADY
UNDERSTOOD THAT
2012 IS A COMPLEX
YEAR DUE TO THE
INTERNATIONAL
CONDITIONS
14
14
15
THE VERY MODEST
BRAZILIAN RECOVERY
BRINGS UP SPECULATION
ABOUT THE BALANCE
AMONG CYCLICAL AND
STRUCTURAL FACTORS IN
THE CURRENT GROWTH
PROCESS.
WE CONSIDER THAT 2012
GDP GROWTH MIGHT HAVE
BEEN REDUCED BY 0.8~1.0
POINTS DUE TO
EXCEPTIONAL EVENTS.
16
16
THE FACT IS: THE ECONOMY
“TEMPERATURE” IS STILL “MILD”
IT’S CLEAR THAT THE ACTIVITY
DRIVER COMES FROM
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION.
SUPPLY SIDE (INDUSTRY) IS
STILL WEAK.
17
RETAIL SALES AND INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION BY
VOLUME DE VENDAS NO COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA AMPLIADO E
Fonte:IBGE
IBGE
Fonte:
PRODUÇÃO
INDUSTRIAL
- MÉDIA
MÓVEL TRIMESTRAL DAS
Janeiro 2003 = 100
VOLUME
AVERAGE
OF
SEASONALLYElaboração:
Bradesco – THREE-MONTH
Elaboração:
Bradesco
SÉRIES DESSAZONALIZADAS
Janeiro
2003 = 100
ADJUSTED
SERIES
January 2003 = 100
195,1
Vendas no Comércio
190
RETAIL SALES
INDUSTRIAL
ProduçãoPRODUCTION
Industrial
179,2
167,2
170
177,2
149,6
150
141,2
147,8
131,9
130
131,5
130,8
130,4
121,4
120,4
119,0
110
185,0
112,9
108,2
mai/05
jul/05
set/05
nov/05
jan/06
mar/06
mai/06
jul/06
set/06
nov/06
jan/07
mar/07
mai/07
jul/07
set/07
nov/07
jan/08
mar/08
mai/08
jul/08
set/08
nov/08
jan/09
mar/09
mai/09
jul/09
set/09
nov/09
jan/10
mar/10
mai/10
jul/10
set/10
nov/10
jan/11
mar/11
mai/11
jul/11
set/11
nov/11
jan/12
mar/12
mai/12
90
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
18
126,3
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION: ANNUAL VARIATION
2002 - 2013
Fonte: IBGE
PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL
IN %
10.47%
11.0%
8.30%
7.0%
3.0%
6.02%
3.09%
2.73%
3.50%
3.10%
2.82%
0.35%
0.05%
-1.0%
-1.52%
-5.0%
-7.38%
19
SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-9.0%
RETAIL SALES – ANNUAL VARIATION – INCLUIDING
Fonte: IBGE
AUTO
AND BUILDING MATERIALS SALES
Elaboraçã e projeção:
Bradesco
2005-2013
VOLUME DE VENDAS DO COMÉRCIO VAREJISTA AMPLIADO - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL 2001 - 2012 (*) O comércio varejista ampliado difere
do comércio varejista pela inclusão dos segmentos de material de construção e veículos e motos, partes e peças.
15%
13.6%
12.2%
12%
9.9%
9%
6.8%
6.4%
6.6%
7.0%
6.5%
6%
3.1%
3%
0%
2005
20
2006
SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
2013*
NET CREATION OF FORMAL EMPLOYMENT
1996 - 2013
Saldo acumulado no ano - 1996 - 2009
Em postos de trabalho
´000 INDIVIDUAL JOBS
2.500
2.137
2.000
1.617
1.523
1.566
1.452
1.500
1.471
1.264
1.254 1.229
995
1.000
658
762
645
591
500
0
-36
-500
-196
-271
-582
21
SOURCE: CAGED, BRADESCO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2013*
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-1.000
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – SIX MAJOR MATROPOLITAN
Fonte: IBGE
AREAS – TAXA
YEARLY
(2002PELA
– 2013)
MÉDIA DEAVERAGE
DESEMPREGO APURADA
PME NAS 6 PRINCIPAIS REGIÕES
Elaboração Bradesco
METROPOLITANAS DO PAÍS - %
12.3
13
11.5
11.5
12
11
9.9
10.0
9.3
10
09
7.9
8.1
08
6.7
07
6.0
5.7
06
5.2
05
2002
22
2003
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
POPULATION: TOTAL, WORKING AGE, LABOR FORCE,
EMPLOYED POPULATION AND UNEMPLOYED
250
200
em milhões de
Millions
pessoas
191,8
162,8
150
101,1
92,7
100
TOTAL
População
POPULATION
total
WORKING
PIA AGE
POPULATION
PEA
LABOR
FORCE
50
8,4
desempregados
0
23
População
EMPLOYED
ocupada
POPULATION
UNEMPLOYED
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
CRESCIMENTO MÉDIO DOS ÚLTIMOS ANOS DA POPULAÇÃO OCUPADA E PEA
WORKFORCE SUPPLY
AND DEMAND (2004 – 2011)
% ao ano
3,0%
2,45%
2,5%
CRESCIMENTO
DA OCUPAÇÃO
GROWHT IN DEMAND
HAVE
VEM
SENDO
0,9
PONTO
BEEN 0.9% ABOVE
GROWTH
PERCENTUAL
ACIMA DA PEA
IN SUPPLY
2,0%
1,55%
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
0,0%
PEAFORCE
LABOR
24
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
EMPLOYED
OCUPADOS
POPULATION
FORMAL EMPLOYMENT SHARE OF TOTAL
PARTICIPAÇÃO
DO EMPREGO FORMAL
NO TOTAL DE OCUPADOS
EMPLOYMENT
STOCK
Formalização
FONTE: IBGE
%
63,0%
61,8%
61,4%
61,0%
60,5%
61,1%
59,9%
59,0%
58,5%
57,3%
57,0%
56,4%
56,7%
55,8%
55,0%
54,3%
54,8%
53,9%
53,0%
52,3%
52,7%
53,4%
52,1%
51,0%
50,7%
set/04
nov/04
jan/05
mar/05
mai/05
jul/05
set/05
nov/05
jan/06
mar/06
mai/06
jul/06
set/06
nov/06
jan/07
mar/07
mai/07
jul/07
set/07
nov/07
jan/08
mar/08
mai/08
jul/08
set/08
nov/08
jan/09
mar/09
mai/09
jul/09
set/09
nov/09
jan/10
mar/10
mai/10
jul/10
set/10
nov/10
jan/11
mar/11
mai/11
jul/11
set/11
nov/11
jan/12
mar/12
mai/12
49,0%
25
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
jan/09
fev/09
mar/09
abr/09
mai/09
jun/09
jul/09
ago/09
set/09
out/09
nov/09
dez/09
jan/10
fev/10
mar/10
abr/10
mai/10
jun/10
jul/10
ago/10
set/10
out/10
nov/10
dez/10
jan/11
fev/11
mar/11
abr/11
mai/11
jun/11
jul/11
ago/11
set/11
out/11
nov/11
dez/11
jan/12
fev/12
mar/12
abr/12
mai/12
jun/12
REAL AVERAGE EMPLOYEE WAGE - YEAR-OVER-YEAR
Admitidos
Admitidos
GROWTH (2009 – 2012)
9,0%
8,0%
7,0%
3,0%
2,0%
-1,0%
26
6,6%
5,0%
5,1%
4,0%
2,5%
1,8%
SOURCE: MTE
5,4%
6,6%
6,0%
6,1%
4,8%
3,9%
2,6%
3,8%
2,4%
3,0%
2,2%
1,0%
0,0%
0,9%
-0,6%
-1,3%
-2,0%
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE– CURRENT SITUATION
2006-2012
ÍNDICE DE CONFIANÇA DO CONSUMIDOR (ICC) - SITUAÇÃO ATUAL (DADOS DESSAZONALIZADOS)
Fonte: FGV
Elaboração: Bradesco
150
148.1
146.5
144.6
140.7
140
139.9
137.4
137.2
130
135.4
132.4
124.8
122.2
122.3
118.6
120
116.0
111.0
110
105.9
100
99.1
101.4
104.0
104.1
100.0
98.7
99.1
99.3
SOURCE: FGV
27
jul/12
mai/12
mar/12
jan/12
nov/11
set/11
jul/11
mai/11
mar/11
jan/11
nov/10
set/10
jul/10
mai/10
mar/10
jan/10
nov/09
set/09
jul/09
mai/09
mar/09
jan/09
nov/08
set/08
jul/08
mai/08
mar/08
jan/08
nov/07
set/07
jul/07
mai/07
mar/07
jan/07
nov/06
set/06
jul/06
90
WE DO NOT HAVE DOUBTS
ABOUT BRAZILIAN
RECOVERY DURING
SECOND HALF, BUT
DOUBTS ABOUT THE
RECOVERY MAGNITUDE
ARE STILL HIGH.
28
28
CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % - 1984 - 2012
Fonte: IBGE e IPEA
Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco
BRAZILIAN GDP – ANNUAL VARIATION
1984 - 2013
(%)
9.0
7.8
7.5
7.0
10 dos
YEARS
Média
10 anos:
AVERAGE:
4,0% 4.1%
20 YEARS
Média
dos 20 anos
AVERAGE:
anteriores:
2,7%
2.7%
5.4
4.7
5.0
3.5
6.1
5.7
5.3
7.5
5.2
4.4
4.0
4.3
3.4
3.2
4.0
3.2
2.7
3.0
2.7
2.1
2.1
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.1
0.0 0.3
-0.1
-1.0
-0.3
-0.5
-3.0
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2013*
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
29
1990
-4.3
-5.0
THE MARKET AND THE
COMPANIES
MISUNDERSTOOD THE 7.5%
GROWTH OF 2010 AS A
PERMANENT SCENARIO.
30
30
NOW THEY OVERSTATE
AGAIN, PROJECTING THE 2%
(OR LESS) GROWTH OF 2012
AS A LASTING CONDITION
FOR THE COMING YEARS.
31
31
THE COMPLEX TRANSITION FROM
UNCERTAINTY TO CONFIDENCE
UNCERTAINTY
32
CONFIDENCE
WILL IT BE POSSIBLE TO GROW IN A
WORLD WITH SO MANY PROBLEMS?
THE GROWTH MODEL IS
NOT YET EXHAUSTED,
BUT NEW DYNAMIC
SOURCES MUST COME
INTO PLAY SOON.
33
33
NEW MIDDLE CLASS (% SHARE OF TOTAL POPULATION)
57,0
55,05
53,60
49,22
48,0
44,94
38,64
39,0
36,74
37,56
36,37
SOURCE: CPS/FGV
34
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
1999
1998
1997
1996
30,98
1993
1992
30,0
1995
32,52
CREDIT/GDP - BRAZIL
Fonte: Bacen e (*) projeções:
Bradesco
Relação crédito/PIB (valores correntes)
55,0%
52,8%
49,0%
50,0%
46,4%
44,4%
45,0%
40,5%
40,0%
35,2%
35,0%
30,9%
30,0%
24,6%
24,6%
2002
2003
25,0%
28,3%
25,7%
35
SOURCE: BCB
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
20,0%
BRAZIL: FORMAL EDUCATION IN YEARS OF
THE POPULATION AGED OVER 25
7,6
7,4
7,4
7,2
7,2
7,1
7,0
6,9
6,8
6,7
6,6
6,5
6,4
6,4
6,3
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
36
2010*
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
6,2
TOTAL REAL INVESTMENTS (%). ANNUAL VARIATION
1996 - 2012
(%)
24.0
21.33
21.0
18.0
13.85
15.0
12.0
8.73
9.0
9.77
9.12
5.03
6.0
3.0
13.57
4.71
3.63
1.50
1.00
0.44
0.0
-0.34
-3.0
-6.0
-5.23 -4.59
-6.72
-9.0
-8.19
37
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-12.0
TAXA DE CRESCIMENTO DO CONSUMO DAS FAMÍLIAS
HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION – ANNUAL VARIATION (%)
1996-2012
Fonte: IBGE
Elaboração: Bradesco
8.0
6.9
7.0
6.1
5.7
6.0
5.2
5.0
4.5
4.0
4.1
3.8
4.0
3.2
4.4
3.5
3.0
3.0
1.9
2.0
1.0
0.7
0.4
0.0
-1.0
-0.7
-0.8
38
SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-2.0
BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE
70%
CLASSE A: R$ 7.006 OU MAIS
2000
CLASSE B: DE R$ 4.635 A R$ 7.006
2010
60%
58.9%
2020*
53.2%
CLASSE D: DE R$ 701 A R$ 1.159
CLASSE E: ATÉ R$ 701
50%
40%
CLASSE C: DE R$ 1.159 A R$ 4.635
37.9%
33.3%
30%
20%
20.0%
18.4%
17.9%
16.3%
11.9%
10%
3.8%
5.7%
7.9%
5.0% 4.8% 5.1%
00%
Classe E
39
SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO
Classe D
Classe C
Classe B
Classe A
% A+B+C CLASSES IN TOTAL POPULATION IN
E: IBGE 2009
ABC
SC
SP
DF
RS
RJ
PR
MG
GO
MS
MT
BRASIL
ES
RO
AP
AM
RR
TO
AC
PA
RN
SE
MA
BA
PI
CE
PE
PB
AL
25,0%
80,4%
77,0%
75,4%
70,0%
69,8%
69,4%
63,7%
63,4%
63,0%
62,5%
60,6%
59,4%
57,7%
56,9%
55,8%
54,0%
52,7%
52,1%
47,1%
44,4%
43,2%
41,6%
41,3%
40,7%
39,8%
38,9%
37,7%
30,0%
30,0%
35,0%
40,0%
SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE, BRADESCO
40
45,0%
50,0%
55,0%
60,0%
65,0%
70,0%
75,0%
80,0%
85,0%
INDEBTEDNESS OR
DISPOSABLE INCOME
REDUCTION DUE TO
NEW HOUSEHOLD
CONSUMPTION MIX?
41
41
Fonte: IBGE
RENDIMENTO
MÉDIO REAL - R$
(DADOS
REAL
INCOME
(SEASONALLY
ADJUSTED,
Elaboração:AVERAGE
Bradesco
CONSTANT PRICES)
MONTHLY R$ A PREÇOS DE MAIO/2012)
DESSAZONALIZADOS
1,800
1,750
1,743
1,698
1,700
1,671
1,656
1,627
1,650
1,600 1,600
1,578
1,557
1,550
1,490
1,500
1,450
1,443
1,400
1,350
1,322
SOURCE: IBGE
42
42
mai/12
fev/12
nov/11
ago/11
mai/11
fev/11
nov/10
mai/10
ago/10
fev/10
nov/09
mai/09
ago/09
fev/09
nov/08
mai/08
ago/08
fev/08
nov/07
mai/07
ago/07
fev/07
nov/06
mai/06
ago/06
fev/06
nov/05
ago/05
fev/05
mai/05
nov/04
ago/04
fev/04
mai/04
nov/03
ago/03
fev/03
mai/03
nov/02
ago/02
mai/02
1,300
GRAU DE SATURAÇÃO DE ALGUNS ELETROELETRÔNICOS (FONTE: IBGE)
SHARE OF HOMES WITH ACCESS TO SELECTED
DURABLE GOODS (2009)
120%
100%
98.5%
96.0%
93.9%
80%
60%
40%
44.8%
20%
15.1%
0%
Fogão
STOVEN
SOURCE: IBGE- PNAD
43
Televisão
TV
Geladeira
REFRIGERATOR
Máquina
deMACHINE
lavar roupa
WASHING
Freezer
FRIDGE
NUMBER OF MINIMUM
WAGES NEEDED TO BUY A NEW
Fonte:Número
MTE e IBGE
de salários
Elaboração:
mínimos
Quantidade de salário mínimo necessário para comprar um carro zero - 2000 - 2010
Bradesco
CAR*
(*) Gol City (Trend) 1.0 Mi Total Flex 8V 2p
NUMBER OF MONTHLY MINIMUM WAGES
180
160 154,7
146,0
140
125,5
120
113,4
95,5
100
102,1
91,4
79,1
80
74,1
66,4
60
57,2
51,6
50,1
44,1
40
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011*
2012*
(*) NOVO GOL VW 1.0
SOURCE: MTE. DIEESE/PROCON, BRADESCO
44
CAR INSURANCE (R$)
2003-2011
Seguuro de Automóvel (R$)
24.000.000.000
21.332.617.577
19.982.740.528
19.000.000.000
17.334.060.719
15.356.955.684
13.631.953.386
13.053.247.886
12.133.376.218
14.000.000.000
10.526.970.130
9.000.000.000
8.938.814.689
4.000.000.000
2003
2004
2005
SOURCE: SUSEP, FENAPREVI A AUTOSEG
45
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NUMBER OF MOBILE ACCESS
BASE
2003 – 2011
300.000
242.232
250.000
202.944
200.000
173.959
150.641
150.000
120.980
99.919
100.000
86.210
65.606
50.000
46.373
0
2003
2004
SOURCE: ANATEL, BRADESCO
46
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
BROADBAND ACCESS (2009-2011)
Acesso a banda larga
‘000 users
70
60
63.466
Usuários
ativos
ACTIVE
USER
USER
WITH
ACCESS
Pessoas
com
acesso
54.523
50
46.804
46.589
43.313
40
36.577
30
20
10
0
dez/09
47
FONTE: TELECO
ELABORAÇÃO: BRADESCO
dez/10
dez/11
jan/09
fev/09
mar/09
abr/09
mai/09
jun/09
jul/09
ago/09
set/09
out/09
nov/09
dez/09
jan/10
fev/10
mar/10
abr/10
mai/10
jun/10
jul/10
ago/10
set/10
out/10
nov/10
dez/10
jan/11
fev/11
mar/11
abr/11
mai/11
jun/11
jul/11
ago/11
set/11
out/11
nov/11
dez/11
jan/12
fev/12
mar/12
TELEVISION SUBSCRIPTIONS (2009-2012)
Acessos de TV por assinatura
13.500
48
13.675
12.500
12.744
11.500
11.889
10.500
11.108
10.419
9.500
9.074
9.769
8.500
8.032
8.426
7.500
7.473
6.500
7.098
6.393
6.724
5.500
SOURCE: TELECO
LIFE INSURANCE (R$)
2003-2011
Seguro de Vida Individual
8.000.000.000
7.622.563.230
6.000.000.000
5.303.960.482
4.321.111.560
4.000.000.000
3.585.051.897
3.815.711.791
2.748.559.136
2.138.338.761
2.000.000.000
1.627.251.885
1.311.532.050
0
2003
2004
2005
SOURCE: SUSEP, FENAPREVI A AUTOSEG
49
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NUMBER OF PASSENGERS IN THE BRAZILIAN
- total
AIRPORTS (DOMESTIC ANDMovimentos
INTERNATIONAL
FLIGHTS)
ON THE LAST 12 MONTHS
THOUSAND OF PASSENGERS
200.000
184.872
180.000
169.868
160.000
152.177
140.000
128.136
120.000
114.529
106.933
113.182
101.771
100.000
89.160
SOURCE: INFRAERO, BRADESCO
50
mai/12
fev/12
nov/11
ago/11
mai/11
fev/11
nov/10
ago/10
mai/10
fev/10
nov/09
ago/09
mai/09
fev/09
nov/08
ago/08
mai/08
fev/08
nov/07
ago/07
mai/07
fev/07
nov/06
ago/06
mai/06
fev/06
nov/05
ago/05
mai/05
80.000
CONTRIBUTION TO 90 DAYS INDIVIDUALS DELIQUENCY
VOLUME IN 12 MONTHS (MAY/12)
45,0%
40,0%
39,7%
35,1%
35,0%
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
16,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,9%
5,0%
2,1%
1,1%
0,0%
Aquisição de
Auto
loans
veículos
SOURCE: BACEN
51
Crédito pessoal
Personal
credit
Cartão
crédito
Creditde
card
Cheque
especial
Overdraft
accounts
Outros
others
Aquisição
Goods de outros
bens
purchase
abr/02
jun/02
ago/02
out/02
dez/02
fev/03
abr/03
jun/03
ago/03
out/03
dez/03
fev/04
abr/04
jun/04
ago/04
out/04
dez/04
fev/05
abr/05
jun/05
ago/05
out/05
dez/05
fev/06
abr/06
jun/06
ago/06
out/06
dez/06
fev/07
abr/07
jun/07
ago/07
out/07
dez/07
fev/08
abr/08
jun/08
ago/08
out/08
dez/08
fev/09
abr/09
jun/09
ago/09
out/09
dez/09
fev/10
abr/10
jun/10
ago/10
out/10
dez/10
fev/11
abr/11
jun/11
ago/11
out/11
dez/11
fev/12
abr/12
jun/12
DELIQUENCY RATE BY INDIVIDUALS
(SEASONALLY ADJUSTED)
– FIGURES FROM
Inadimplência pf - dessaz
THE NATIONAL FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2002-2012
8.4
6.6
52
8.5
7.4
7.1
6.8
6.4
5.8
SOURCE: BACEN, BRADESCO
Fonte: BC
IN %
9.0
De
dias
1515
to a9090days
over 90
Acima
dedays
90 dias
8.2
7.9
7.7
7.7
7.3
6.4
6.4
5.9
5.7
5,57
5.0
7.8
7.4
7.1
7.5
7.0
6.8
6.4
SLOWDOWN IN THE ECONOMY
LAST YEAR AND THE
CORRECTION OF COMMODITY
PRICES ARE HAVING POSITIVE
IMPACTS ON CURRENT
INFLATION.
53
CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (IPCA) - 2002-2013*
14.0%
12.5%
12.0%
10.0%
9.3%
7.6%
8.0%
6.5%
5.9%
5.9%
5.7%
6.0%
5.5%
5.0%
4.5%
4.0%
4.3%
3.1%
2.0%
54
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2013*
2012*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0.0%
12 MONTHS INFLATION RATE FOR SERVICES AND
GOOD (DURABLE AND NON-DURABLE) – 2003-2012*
12.0%
10.84%
9.96%
10.0%
8.55%
9.18%
6.84%
6.0%
9.00%
7.49%
8.0%
7.13%
7.84%
6.04%
6.39%
5.26%
4.0%
4.22%
4.01%
3.97%
2.46%
2.99%
3.01%
2.0%
1.59%
1.87%
0.0%
-2.0%
8.44%
0.01%
Bens
GOODS
SERVICES
Serviços
-1.44%
jun/03
set/03
dez/03
mar/04
jun/04
set/04
dez/04
mar/05
jun/05
set/05
dez/05
mar/06
jun/06
set/06
dez/06
mar/07
jun/07
set/07
dez/07
mar/08
jun/08
set/08
dez/08
mar/09
jun/09
set/09
dez/09
mar/10
jun/10
set/10
dez/10
mar/11
jun/11
set/11
dez/11
mar/12
jun/12
set/12
dez/12
-4.0%
55
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
jan-08
fev-08
mar-08
abr-08
mai-08
jun-08
jul-08
ago-08
set-08
out-08
nov-08
dez-08
jan-09
fev-09
mar-09
abr-09
mai-09
jun-09
jul-09
ago-09
set-09
out-09
nov-09
dez-09
jan-10
fev-10
mar-10
abr-10
mai-10
jun-10
jul-10
ago-10
set-10
out-10
nov-10
dez-10
jan-11
fev-11
mar-11
abr-11
mai-11
jun-11
jul-11
ago-11
set-11
out-11
nov-11
dez-11
jan-12
fev-12
mar-12
abr-12
mai-12
jun-12
jul-12
ago-12
set-12
out-12
nov-12
dez-12
jan-13
fev-13
mar-13
abr-13
mai-13
jun-13
jul-13
ago-13
set-13
out-13
nov-13
dez-13
Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic
NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC)
2008-2013
15.0%
14.0%
12.0%
56
13.75%
13.0%
13.00%
12.75%
12.00%
12.50%
11.75%
11.25%
11.25%
10.0%
9.0%
8.0%
SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
11.25%
11.0%
10.75%
10.25%
9.50%
8.75% 8.75%
11.50%
10.25%
10.50%
9.75%
9.00%
8.50%
8.00%
8.50%
7.75%
7.50% 7.50%
7.0%
REAL INTEREST RATE (SWAP PRE-DI 360 DEFLATED BY
TAXA REALFORECAST)
DE JUROS NO BRASIL (SWAP 360
DIAS CONTRA
SELIC 12 MESES À FRENTE)
IPCA 12 MONTHS
2009
- 2012
FONTE: Bloomberg
7.0%
6.75%
6.74%
6.5%
6.50%
6.56%
6.01%
6.0%
5.74%
6.23%
5.81%
5.5%
5.63%
5.56%
5.0%
7.11%
6.97%
4.83%
4.58%
4.5%
3.87%
4.0%
3.90%
3.48%
3.5%
3.0%
3.16%
2.50%
2.5%
2.0%
2.11%
1.76%
57
SOURCE: BRADESCO
26/07/12
28/06/12
31/05/12
03/05/12
05/04/12
08/03/12
09/02/12
12/01/12
15/12/11
17/11/11
20/10/11
22/09/11
25/08/11
28/07/11
30/06/11
02/06/11
05/05/11
07/04/11
10/03/11
10/02/11
13/01/11
16/12/10
18/11/10
21/10/10
23/09/10
26/08/10
29/07/10
01/07/10
03/06/10
06/05/10
08/04/10
11/03/10
11/02/10
14/01/10
17/12/09
19/11/09
1.5%
NOMINAL TOTAL CREDIT GROWTH
2004-2012
Fonte: Bacen e (*)
CRESCIMENTO NOMINAL EM 12 MESES DO ESTOQUE TOTAL DE CRÉDITO 2004 - 2017
35,0%
31,1%
30,0%
27,8%
25,0%
21,7%
20,0%
20,7%
20,6%
19,2%
19,0%
15,6%
15,2%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
0,0%
2004
2005
SOURCE: BACEN; BRADESCO
58
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
CREDIT STOCK PORTFOLIO (VEHICLE AND
HOUSING)
MONTHS
GROWTH
- R$e doBILLIONS
Evolução do12
estoque
de nominal do crédito
à veículos (CDC + leasing)
habitacional (livre + direcionado) - em R$
bilhões
229,0
SINCE
JAN/12
THE HOUSING
Em jan/12
a carteira
de
CREDIT
crédito PORTFOLIO
habitacionalSURPASSED
superou
aVEHICLE
carteira CREDIT
de financiamento
PORTFOLIO
de veículos
+ leasing).
(CDC (CDC
+ LEASING)
220
190
200,0
189,8
173,6
160
144,5
VEÍCULOS
vehicles
130
100
85,2
HABITACIONAL
housing
74,4
70
35,2
40
34,1
25,1
SOURCE: BACEN
59
mai/12
fev/12
nov/11
ago/11
mai/11
fev/11
nov/10
ago/10
mai/10
fev/10
nov/09
ago/09
mai/09
fev/09
nov/08
ago/08
mai/08
fev/08
nov/07
ago/07
mai/07
fev/07
nov/06
ago/06
mai/06
fev/06
nov/05
ago/05
mai/05
fev/05
nov/04
ago/04
mai/04
fev/04
nov/03
ago/03
mai/03
fev/03
nov/02
10
MICRO AND MACROECONOMIC
HOMEWORK STILL NEEDS TO BE
DONE TO ACHIEVE GREATER
EFFICIENCY.
EDUCATION AND INFRASTRUCTURE
ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT AREAS.
THE MAIN SOURCE OF LONG-TERM
GROWTH IS PRODUCTIVITY.
60
Praça Panamericana branch
Presence in All Brazilian Municipalities
A
B
C
D
E
03
Organic Growth of the Distribution Channels
4,650
4,634
3,160
2007
3,359
2008
3,454
2009
3,628
2010
2011
1H12
40,476
65,370
59,721
48,691
34,839
26,104
16,061
11,539
2007
38,510
20,200
2008 2009 2010
32,081
24,161
2011 1H12
2007 2008
Source Financial Statements.
04
2009
2010
2011
1H12
Mobility and Other Service Channels
1,846
1,296 1,549
2007 2008
2009
2,399
2,983
192.5
3,375
99.1
3.5
2010 2011 1H12(3)
4.2
5.5
32.5
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
1H12
4,719
4,112
47,484
4,490 4,439
46,971
43,072
3,738
37,957
34,524
2,776
29,913
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 1H12
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 1H12
Source: Financial Statements (1) Values in millions - (2) Accumulated over 12 months - (3) Includes Webta – (4) PA (Service Point): consolidation of
the PAB (Banking Service Point), PAA (Advanced Service Point) and Exchange points, according to Resolution CMN nº 4,072, of April 26th 2012; and
PAE (Electric Service Points located in companies) – (5) Includes Banco 24 horas
05
Distribution Network in Brazil*
1,009 New Branches in 2011
Northeast
North
27.8%
25.5%
21.3%
Midwest
21.4%
Southeast
19.0%
South
66.7 Million Clients
Total service points: 65,370(1)
Market Share (Branches) %
(1) Includes Branches (in the country and overseas), PABs, PAAs, PAEs
Bradesco Expresso, ATMs and Bradesco Promotora.
* 2Q12 Data
06
Client Segmentation
Companies
Individuals
Minimum investment of R$3 million.
Annual revenue over
R$250 million.
Monthly income starting at
R$7,000 or Investment
starting at R$80,000.
Annual revenue from
R$30 million
to R$250 million.
Monthly income from
R$3,000 to R$6,999.99 or
Investments starting
at R$30,000.
Exclusive
Small Business
Monthly income
Individuals
up to R$2,999.99.
Bradesco Expresso and PAA
07
Annual revenue up to
R$30 million.
Investments in Infrastructure, IT and
Telecommunications
R$ Million
Investment (2007 to 1H12):
R$ 18.5 billion
3,920
2,670
667
2,099
478
1,621
2,003
2007
2008
3,457
630
2,827
3,204
1,087
3,241
1,986
273
1,713
2009
IT/Telecommunication
Source: Financial Statements.
716
4,328
2010
2011
Infrastructure
Cidade de Deus - IT Building
08
1H12
Strategic Positioning in Sustainability
Banking
Inclusion
I
Floating Bradesco Branch
Signatory to the
Equator Principles
GRI Sustainability
Report
Financial
Education
Program
Greenhouse Gas
Emission Inventory
09
Eco-Efficiency
Master Plan
Responsible
Credit
Banking Business Opportunities
Payroll - Deductible Loans
Investment Banking
• Increased investments in
Brazil
• Access to Bradesco’s
relationship network
• Target the 7MM pensioners
receiving pensions through
Bradesco
• Target new INSS beneficiaries
(190,000 per month)
• Leverage origination of private
and public agreements
• Formalization of the economy
• Broader access to banking
services
• Increased salary
• Continued social mobility
• Synergy with other areas of the
Bank
• Further segmentation
• Consolidation of diverse
sectors of the economy
• Substitution of payment
methods
• Social ascension
• Broader access to banking
services
• Low Mortgage/GDP ratio
• Housing Deficit of over 7.5
million
• Long-term relationship with
clients
Retail
Bradesco Empresas
Credit Cards
Mortgages
Vehicle Financing
Corporate
• Monitor demand and business
opportunities
• Support /explore growing
investments by foreign
companies in Brazil
10
• High inhabitant/ automobile
ratio
• Long-term relationship with
clients
• Opportunity for cross-selling
Insurance Business Opportunities(1)
USA
GDP (2)
CHINA
1st
PREMIUMS
JAPAN
3rd
2nd
1st
%
PREMIUMS/GDP
6th
8.0%
GERMANY
3.8%
4th
2nd
6th
5th
4th
5th
7.2%
10.1%
7th
3rd
3.1%
12.4%
8.1%
Health Plans Cover
24%
of the population
Insured Vehicles:
30%
(1)
11
8th
7th
10.5%
10%
Source: Swiss RE
ITALY
15th
Insured Homes:
1.48%
of Global
Market
UK
BRAZIL
FRANCE
8%
of the
population has
dental insurance
Does not include Savings Bonds.
(2)
IMF Estimates.
Supplier Meeting
13
Risk Management
Integrated Risk
Control
Integrated
Risk and
Capital
Allocation
Credit Risk
Market Risk
and
Liquidity
Operating Risk
14
Risk
Modeling
SocialEnvironmental
Risk
Stakeholders
Relationship
Clients:
66.7 million
Employees:
104,531
Shareholders and Investors:
370,207
Suppliers:
4,221
Community:
Sponsorship and support of 188
events
Government and Society:
Present in all Brazilian municipalities
NGOs
Relations with more than 100
institutions
15
Headquarters - Red Building - Cidade de Deus
Adjusted Net Income and EPS(1)
R$ Million
2.72
2.82
2.91
2.96
2.93
2.97
2.97
2.82
5,712
5,563
2,738
1Q11
2,825
2,864
2,771
2,845
2,867
2Q
3Q
4Q
1Q12
2Q
+4.7%
1H11
1H12
+2.7%
Earnings per share (R$) – in the last 12 months
(1) For EPS comparison purposes, shares were adjusted in line with stock bonuses and splits.
.
17
Net Income Breakdown
%
Funding
8
Securities
8
1H12
Funding
7
Securities
11
Banking 72
Loans
30
R$ 5,563 million
Fees
25
Insurance
31
Fees
26
Insurance
28
%
1H11
+2.7%
18
Loans
26
Banking 69
R$ 5,712 million
NII – Interest / Trading Gains
R$ Million
8,302
9,018
9,362
9,471
398
465
513
304
10,230
561
10,258
10,695 11,034
273
473
15.1 %
20,740
18,016
7,904
3Q10
8,553
8,849
9,669
9,167
516
9,985
10,222
10,518
2.9%
4Q
1Q11
2Q
3Q
Interest-Earning Portion
4Q
1Q12
Non-Interest-Earning Portion
19
2Q
Core NIM & NII
R$ Million
11.3%
10.5%
10.2%
7.6%
7.8%
7,904
3Q10
12.6%
12.3%
12.0%
11.2%
4Q
11.3%
10.3%
11.9%
7.8%
8,553
12.1%
10.4%
7.6%
8,849
1Q11
7.6%
9,167
2Q
9,669
3Q
10.0%
9.0%
7.6%
9,985
4Q
NII – Interest-Earnings Portion
NIM=(NII = Interest-Earnings Portion/Total Average Assets – Repos – Permanent Assets) Annualized
Average Selic (annualized)
Pre BM&F (1 year)
20
8.9%
7.6%
7.6%
7.5%
10,222 10,518
1Q12
2Q
Credit NII
R$ Million
35.3
5,833
2,059
37.4
6,143
2,295
3,774
3,848
3Q10
4Q
Net Credit Margin
38.2
6,180
2,360
3,820
1Q11
PLL (1)
40.1
37.2
6,928
6,548
2,437
2,779
4,111
4,149
2Q
3Q
Gross Credit Margin
(1) Including loan discounts granted, credit recovery, earnings from properties sold, among others.
21
43.1
46.3
37.2
7,162
7,181
7,362
2,661
3,094
3,407
4,501
4,087
3,955
4Q
1Q12
2Q
PLL/Gross Credit Margin %
Fee Income
%
Technical Analysis
Underwriting
1H12
Technical Analysis
Underwriting
Custody / Brokerage
Consortium
Tax Payments
Others
Custody / Brokerage
Consortium
Tax Payments
%
1H11
Cards
Others
Cards
Collection
Collection
Asset
Management
Asset
Management
Credit Operations
R$ 7,261 million
Checking
Accounts
Credit Operations
+15.7%
22
Checking Accounts
R$ 8,399 million
Operating Expenses
R$ Million
Variation %
2Q12
2,436
1Q12
2,351
1H12
4,786
1H11
4,097
Q-o-Q
3.6
Y-o-Y
16.8
611
527
1,139
944
15.9
20.7
Personnel
3,047
2,878
5,925
5,041
5.9
17.5
Administrative
3,441
3,401
6,842
6,319
1.2
8.3
Total
6,488
6,279
12,767
11,360
3.3
12.4
Op. Expenses (1) / Total Assets
3.1%
3.2%
3.1%
3.3%
Structural
Non - Structural
(1) Accumulated over 12 months.
23
(0.1)p.p (0.2)p.p
Unrealized Gains
R$ Million
Variation %
Jun 12
Mar 12 Jun 11
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
3,877
44.4
154.7
9,873
6,838
Securities - Equities
(1,733)
(1,127)
(845)
53.8
105.1
(1)
1,537
(160)
(574)
-
-
7,313
12.3
73.8
(394)
14.5
114.2
9,377
33.6
129.8
Securities – Fixed Income
Loan Operations
Investments (2)
Others
Total
12,711
(844)
11,316
(737)
21,544 16,130
Note: Excluding the unrecorded goodwill from real estate for own use, in the amount of R$ 3,030 million;
(1) Includes advances on exchange contracts, leasing operations and other receivables with credit characteristics; and
(2) Includes, basically, the goodwill of interest in Cielo, Odontoprev, Serasa Experian and Fleury) and others investments (BM&Fbovespa).
24
Headquarters - Red Building - Cidade de Deus
Efficiency Ratio
%
53.3
52.4
52.1
52.2
52.4
53.0
52.6
53.1
42.5
42.7
42.7
42.7
42.7
43.0
42.7
42.4
42.0
42.9
2Q
3Q
43.0
3Q10
44.0
4Q
42.0
1Q11
45.1
40.8
4Q
1Q12
Efficiency Ratio - Quarterly
12 – Month Efficiency Ratio
12 – Month Efficiency Ratio Adjusted to Risk (1)
(1) Includes PLL adjusted by discounts granted, by credit recovery, by income from the sale of foreclosed assets, among others.
26
40.8
2Q
Gains from Organic Growth
Anticipation of Organic Growth through the opening of 1,009 branches in 2011
Distribution of products that were not previously sold by Banco Postal
Break-Even and Payback
# Branches
3,160
3,359
2007
2008
3,628
3,454
2009
2010
4,634
2011
27.7%
Source: Financial Statements
27
4,650
1H12
IT – New Architecture: 2005 - 2013
Customer
View
Capacity to properly
respond to the business
45 %
assertiveness of offers via CRM
(Sales Force Automation)
Time to
Market
Agility in developing
products and services
50% to 70% faster in designing and
Operational
Efficiency
Business process and
back office activities
25% reduction of operational
Development and
maintenance cost
reduction
10% reduction in development costs with
Savings
developing new products
activities
the reuse of components
28
Executive Efficiency Committee
13 Vice-Presidents and Executive Officers
COMPONENTS
07 Heads of Department
Specially-invited officers, depending on the subject matter
Dedicated working group
FREQUENCY
FOCUS
Meeting every two weeks and extraordinary meetings whenever
necessary
To encourage initiatives to improve revenue, expenses and investments,
thus aiming to streamline processes and disseminate best practices, with
a focus on efficiency, using indicators to measure the results, in order to
maximize the returns of the business units.
29
Total Assets and Shareholders’ Equity
R$ Million
R$ Million
Total Assets
1.7%
689,307
1.5%
789,550
Jun11
Total Assets
Shareholders’ Equity
23.2%
1.4%
830,520
21.4%
58,060
20.6%
63,920
52,843
Mar12
Jun12
Jun11
ROAA (1)
Mar12
Shareholders’ Equity
(1) Accumulated Adjusted Net Income for the period; and
(2) Excludes mark-to-market effects of available-for-sale securities registered under Shareholders’ Equity.
31
Jun12
ROAE (1) (2)
Expanded Loan Portfolio
R$ Million
Variation %
Jun12
Mar12
Jun11
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
LARGE CORPORATES - TOTAL
143,830
134,451
124,057
7.0
15.9
SMEs - Total
108,898
106,730
92,830
2.0
17.3
INDIVIDUALS
112,235
109,651
102,915
2.4
9.1
364,963 350,831 319,802
4.0
14.1
Expanded Loan Portfolio – Total (1)
(1) Includes sureties and guarantees, letters of credit, anticipation of credit card receivables, debentures, promissory notes, credit assignment with recourse (FIDC Receivables Securitization Fund and CRI - Real Estate Receivables Certificate), and Rural credit.
32
(1)
Delinquency Ratio > 90 days
%
7.6
7.4
6.7
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.4
6.3
4.0
4.4
3.8
0.9
Sep09
0.9
Dec
0.6
Mar10
0.5
Jun
Individuals
5.9
3.8
3.6
3.7
0.6
Sep
5.5
5.5
3.6
5.7
3.7
3.4
3.5
3.6
0.4
0.5
0.4
Dec
Mar11
SMEs
Jun
Large Corporates
33
6.0
3.8
3.7
0.4
Sep
6.1
6.2
6.2
3.9
4.2
4.2
3.9
4.1
4.2
0.4
0.4
Dec
Total
Mar12
0.9
Jun
Allowance for Loan Losses, Overdue Credits and
Coverage Ratio
R$ Million
19,540
19,091
16,019
16,290
9,886
8,351
Set10
16,740
9,973
8,243
Dec
17,365
10,520
8,648
Mar11
20,682
20,117
13,718
11,272
9,172
11,963
9,839
Sep
Jun
12,870
10,598
Dec
11,070
Mar12
Allowance for Loan Losses (1)
Coverage Ratio > 60 Days (1/2)
Loan Portfolio Overdue > 60 Days (2)
Coverage Ratio > 90 Days (1/3)
Loan Portfolio Overdue > 90 Days (3)
34
14,365
11,662
Jun
Headquarters - Red Building - Cidade de Deus
Simulation of the impact of Basel
BIS II %
Jun11
BIS III %
Simulation
Jun12
Jun12 (1)
Tier I
12.9
11.8
8.1
Tier II
1.8
5.2
4.5
-
-
-
14.7
17.0
Dedutions
BIS
(1) Considers (i)reversal of additional PLL in the value of R$4 billion(ii) solvency margin of the Insurance Group.
36
12.6
Headquarters - Red Building - Cidade de Deus
Revenues From Written Premiums, Pension Plan
Contributions and Savings Bonds
R$ Million
Variation %
2Q12
1Q12
1H12
1H11
Q-o-Q
Y-o-Y
Life and Pension Plans
6,737
5,009
11,746
9,552
34.5
23.0
Health
2,573
2,476
5,049
4,346
3.9
16.2
Auto/P&C and Others Lines
1,323
1,138
2,461
2,175
16.3
13.1
937
795
1,732
1,400
17.9
23.7
Total
11,570
9,418
20,988
17,473
22.8
20.1
Shareholders’ Equity
17,202
17,620
17,202
13,788
(2.9)
24.8
881
905
1,786
1,561
(2.7)
14.4
26.0%
26.9%
25.6%
27.0%
(0.9)bps (0.9)bps
Savings Bonds
Net Income
ROAE
38
Combined Ratio and Other Information(1)
R$ Billion
Technical Provisions
Pension Plans
Health
and Life / VGBL
4.1
98.2
93.9
3.9
82.0
Combined Ratio(2) %
85.1
86.1
85.8
86.2
4Q10
1Q11
2Q
3Q
Financial Assets
122.1
Jun11 Mar12 Jun12
4Q
1Q12
Jun11 Mar12 Jun12
2Q
Jun11 Mar12 Jun12
Technical Provisions
Technical Provisions
128.5
106.2
83.6
85.6 85.0
4.2
Auto/P&C and
Others Lines
4.3
4.1
3.8
107.0 111.8
93.9
Jun11 Mar12 Jun12
Jun11 Mar12 Jun12
(1) Financial Assets and Technical Provisions; and
(2) Excluding Additional Provisions.
39
Savings Bonds
4.7
4.9
4.1
Jun11 Mar12 Jun12
Headquarters - Red Building - Cidade de Deus
Guidance
Loan Portfolio
(1) (2)
14 to 18%
(3)
12 to 16%
Individuals
(4)
Corporate
SMEs (5)
Large Corporate
Products
Vehicles
14 to 18%
16 to 20%
13 to 17%
(6)
2 to 6%
Cards (7) (8)
Mortgages (origination)
10 to 14%
R$ 14.0 bn
(9)
Payroll-Deductibles Loans
26 to 30%
Net Interest Income (10)
10 to 14 %
Fee Income (11)
10 to 14 %
Operational Expenses
(12)
8 to 12 %
Insurance Premiums (13)
(1)
15 to19 %
Expanded Loan Portfolio; (2) Changed from 18% - 22% to 14% - 18%; (3) Changed from 16% - 20% to 12% - 16%; (4) Changed from
18% - 22% to 14% -18%; (5) Changed from 23% - 27% to 16% - 20%; (6) Changed from 4% - 8% to 2% - 6%; (7) Changed from 13%
- 17% to 10% - 14%; (8) Does not include the “BNDES Cards” and “Discounts on Advances of Receivables” portfolios; (9) Changed
from R$ 11.4 bn to R$ 14.0 bn; (10) Under current criterion, Guidance for NII - Interest-Earning Portion; (11) Changed from 8% 12% to 10% - 14%; (12) Administrative and Personnel Expenses; and (13) Changed from 13% - 16% to 15% - 19%.
41
BM&F Bovespa
Market Capitalization
R$ Million
109,759
109,463
103,192
106,971
104,869
84,801
a
64,733
16,546 15,167
2001
2002
22,699
2003
65,354
28,750
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
1H12
3.6x 1.9x
2.5x
2.3x
1.9x
1.6x
2007
P/BV
1.7x 1.4x
1.7x
1.9x
3.3x
3.4x
43
Dividends
%
Dividends Distributed:
Over R$ 25.7 billion
61.5
49.3
45.6
41.2
35.3
35.9
41.9
52.3
38.7
31.5
35.3
34.4
37.2
35.7
35.4
35.7
35.6
31.5
31.5
33.1
31.5
31.5
31.5
31.5
3,740
3,369
R$ Million
2,823 2,692 2,718
1,881
1,916
2,160
1,347 1,325
849
2001
947
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Dividends
2007
2008
Net Pay Out (*)
(*) Accumulated over 12 months.
44
2009
2010
2011
Gross Pay Out (*)
1H12
Reasons to Invest in Bradesco
National
Coverage
Bank / Insurance
Synergy
Solid Bank
Segmented
Structure
Strong
State-of-the-Art
Organizational
Technology
Structure
45
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