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Brasil: Crescimento forte, e
inflação idem
André Loes
São Paulo, 6 de maio de 2010
Mundo: Projeções HSBC
2009
PIB
2010
2011
2009
Inflação
2010
2011
Mundo
-2.2
3.1
3.1
1.0
2.4
2.2
Desenvolvidos
Emergentes
-3.4
1.7
2.0
6.6
2.0
6.2
0.0
4.7
1.3
5.9
1.2
5.4
EUA
Reino Unido
Zona do Euro
Japão
Brasil
Rússia
Índia
China
-2.4
-4.9
-4.0
-5.2
-0.2
-7.9
6.5
8.7
2.7
2.0
1.2
1.7
5.6
4.7
8.3
10.0
2.5
2.7
1.5
1.3
4.2
3.0
8.9
8.9
-0.3
2.2
0.3
-1.3
4.3
11.7
10.9
-0.7
1.7
2.8
1.4
-0.9
5.4
7.3
13.6
3.1
1.2
2.6
1.4
-0.6
4.8
10.5
6.0
2.4
% PIB
Resultado Fiscal
2009
2010
2011
Conta Corrente
2009
2010
2011
EUA
Reino Unido
Zona do Euro
Japão
Brasil
Rússia
Índia
China
-10.2
-11.8
-6.1
-10.5
-3.3
-6.0
-6.5
-2.2
-3.0
-1.1
-0.6
2.8
-1.5
4.0
-2.1
5.8
% ano
-9.5
-11.1
-7.1
-9.0
-2.6
-5.7
-5.5
-2.7
-8.0
-8.5
-5.7
-9.0
-1.9
-5.8
-4.8
-2.5
-3.5
-0.7
-0.1
4.1
-2.4
3.7
-3.1
4.4
-3.6
-0.3
0.1
4.7
-4.1
1.0
-3.0
3.9
G7: ajuste fiscal e saída difícil via ajuste externo
► Estamos em meio a uma recuperação cíclica das economias desenvolvidas...
► ...mas alguns desequilíbrios importantes persistem:
► Desequilíbrios privados viraram desequilíbrios soberanos, ajuste fiscal forte à vista
► Países deficitários em CC (EUA, UK, Espanha) continuam com déficit considerável
► Dificuldade/desinteresse em ajustar via câmbio nos países superavitários
► Preços de commodities deixaram de ser veículo para exportação da crise para emergentes
► Problemas nos países periféricos da Europa afetarão crescimento da Zona Euro
► Espanha tem características que tornam mais dif´cicil o contágio
Decoupling cada vez mais claro para emergentes
► Baixo endividamento e bons resultados fiscais
► Contas externas favorecidas por manutenção de preços satisfatórios das
commodities (efeito China)
► Problemas na Zona Euro não eliminam o decoupling de fundamento, mas contágio
financeiro pode acontecer
► Risco de inflação e superaquecimento
Exit strategies: Estamos na ponta do médio prazo
► Esperamos início do aperto monetário americano só em 2011
► Utilização do balanço para títulos colateralizados por hipotecas pode permanecer mesmo
após aumento dos juros
► Europa e UK deveriam começar a ajustar já no final desse ano/início de 2011
► Esforço fiscal com Grécia pode atrasar no caso do BCE
► Japão com juros baixos até “Deus sabe quando”
Brasil: Ritmo da atividade acima do esperado...
Consumer and Business Confidence
130,0
► Confiança do
consumidor e do
empresariado indo para
recordes históricos
120,0
110,0
100,0
90,0
Consumer Confidence Index (sa)
jan/10
nov/09
jul/09
set/09
mai/09
jan/09
mar/09
set/08
nov/08
jul/08
mai/08
jan/08
mar/08
nov/07
jul/07
set/07
mai/07
jan/07
mar/07
nov/06
jul/06
set/06
mai/06
jan/06
em forte aquecimento,
sem que aumento da PEA
possa contrabalançar
tendência
mar/06
70,0
set/05
► Mercado de trabalho
nov/05
80,0
Business Confidence Index (sa)
Fonte: FGV
Net Formal Job Creation
2,500
120,000
2,000
100,000
1,500
(no mês)
80,000
1,000
60,000
500
40,000
0
20,000
-500
0
No mês
Fonte: ministry of Labour
Jan-10
Sep-09
May-09
Jan-09
Sep-08
Jan-08
May-08
Sep-07
Jan-07
May-07
Sep-06
Jan-06
May-06
Sep-05
Jan-05
May-05
Sep-04
Jan-04
May-04
Sep-03
May-03
Jan-03
-2,000
Sep-02
-1,500
-60,000
Jan-02
-1,000
-40,000
May-02
-20,000
(em mil unidades, 12 meses)
140,000
► Aumento do emprego
formal facilita maior
bancarização e expansão
do crédito, em contexto
de queda da
inadimplência
Nos últimos 12 meses
6
...e acima do sustentável: aperto monetário forte a caminho
IPCA e núcleos
▶ Inflação corrente e esperada
muito acima da meta
IPCA/IPCA-15
Médias Aparadas com Suavização
Mar/10
Jan/10
N ov/09
Set/09
Jul/09
Mai/09
Mar/09
Jan/09
N ov/08
Set/08
Jul/08
Mai/08
Mar/08
Jan/08
8.00%
7.50%
7.00%
6.50%
6.00%
5.50%
5.00%
4.50%
4.00%
3.50%
3.00%
Serviços
Fonte: IBGE
Inflation Expectations in 2008 and 2010 inflation surges (% y-o-y)
7.0
▶ Hiato do produto já positivo,
e atividade só contribuirá
negativamente (para o balanço
de riscos) nos próximos
meses:
▶ Com aumento inicial de
75bp, COPOM dev repetir por
3 vezes os 75, terminar com
50bp
▶ Esperamos 350bps no total,
com Selic em 12.25% em
outubro
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
▶ Risco é de concentração ainda
maior da subida no curto prazo
(front loaded movement)
B eginning o f 2008's tightening
4.0
2008
Fonte: IBGE
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
April
Mar
Feb
Jan
Dec (t-1)
Nov (t-1)
Oct (t-1)
Sep (t-1)
Aug (t-1)
July (t-1)
3.5
2010
7
Depreciação gradual a partir do 2S10
USDbn
2005
Uses of Funds
Current Account
Trade Balance
Services and Income
Unrequited Transfers
Amortization
Sources of Funds
Capital Account
FDI
Portfolio Investment
Debt Issuance
Brazilian Assets Abroad
Loans to the Central Bank (IMF Financing)
Short Term Capital
Balance
∆ in International Reserves ((-) = increase)
2009
2010E
2011E
-18.8
2006
-30.5
2007
-36.6
2008
-50.6
-54.5
-71.9
-110.6
14.0
44.7
-34.3
3.6
-32.8
13.6
46.5
-37.1
4.3
-44.1
1.6
40.0
-42.5
4.0
-38.2
-28.2
24.8
-57.3
4.2
-22.4
-24.3
25.3
-52.9
3.3
-30.1
-47.6
12.1
-63.2
3.5
-24.2
-85.7
-14.0
-75.4
3.7
-24.9
23.2
0.7
15.1
6.9
28.5
-8.8
-23.3
4.1
61.1
0.9
18.8
14.7
43.9
-36.1
0.0
18.9
124.1
0.8
34.6
39.8
36.0
-25.2
0.0
38.3
53.5
1.1
45.1
6.3
31.6
-23.5
0.0
-6.9
101.1
1.1
25.9
46.7
35.8
-19.8
0.0
11.2
99.0
1.0
35.0
40.0
28.0
-30.0
0.0
25.0
101.0
1.0
45.0
30.0
30.0
-40.0
0.0
35.0
4.3
30.6
87.5
3.0
46.7
27.1
-9.6
-4.3
-30.6
-87.5
-3.0
-46.7
-27.1
9.6
Source: BCB, HSBC estimates
F D I, P o r t f o lio In v e s tm e n t a n d C u r r e n t Ac c o u n t D e fic it ( % o f G D P )
6 .0 0 %
5 .0 0 %
4 .0 0 %
▶ Capitais fianciarão
déficit em conta
corrente em 2010 e boa
parte de 2011
▶ Eleição poderá ter
efeito sobre câmbio
▶ Câmbio se deprecia
gradualmente a partir
do 2S10
▶ Câmbio deveria
buscar algo próximo a
2,00 daqui a uns dois
anos
3 .0 0 %
2 .0 0 %
1.0 0 %
0 .0 0 %
-1.0 0 %
- 2 .0 0 %
- 3 .0 0 %
T o ta l F D I ( L H A )
P o r t f o lio In v e s t m e n t ( L H A )
C u r r e n t A c c o u n t (R H A )
Source: BCB
8
Fiscal: Melhora na margem e solvência assegurada
Resultado Primário do Governo Central
▶ Arrecadação recuperando
forte
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
▶ Lei eleitoral ajuda a
desacelerar gastos a partir de
junho
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
Receitas do Governo Central
Despesas do Governo Central
Source: National Treasury
Trajetórias seletivas para a Dívida Líquida/PIB
Ja n - 1 0
Ju l- 0 9
Ja n - 0 9
Ju l- 0 8
Ja n - 0 8
Ju l- 0 7
Ja n - 0 7
Ju l- 0 6
Ja n - 0 6
Ju l- 0 5
Ja n - 0 5
Ju l- 0 4
Ja n - 0 4
250,000
▶ Déficit fiscal nominal
aproximadamente 1.0% do PIB
melhor que em 2009
▶ Dívida/PIB se manterá sob
controle, ou reduzirá, caso:
55
50
45
▶ Selic média do ciclo
monetário se mantiver ao
redor de 10%, e;
40
35
30
25
20
2009
2010
Pessimista
Fonte: Estimativas HSBC
2011
2012
Neutro
2013
2014
Otimista
2015
▶ Superávit primário voltar
para 2,0%-2,5% do PIB
9
Ano eleitoral, novo governo e riscos
► Alguma acomodação pelo Copom é possível
► Câmbio pode reagir se Serra na liderança/eleito
► Nosso maior desafio é elevar relação investimento/PIB
► Acreditamos que nova administração manterá os 3 pilares
► Meta de Inflação
► Câmbio flutuante
► Lei de responsabilidade fiscal
► Se for Dilma
► Pouca mudança em monetária e câmbio
► Resultado fiscal burocrático e piora do ambiente de negócios
► Se for Serra
► Mais ativismo cambial e talvez um BC mais “dovish”
► Fiscal melhorando mais na margem, sobretudo sua qualidade
10
Histórico & Projeções
External accounts (USD bn)
Exports
Imports
Trade balance
Current account
Medium and long term amortizations
External sector borrowing requirement
Foreign direct investment
2004
96.5
62.8
33.6
11.7
33.2
21.5
18.1
2005
118.3
73.6
44.7
14.0
32.8
18.8
15.1
2006
137.8
91.4
46.5
13.6
44.1
30.5
18.8
2007
160.6
120.6
40.0
1.6
38.2
36.6
34.6
2008
197.9
173.2
24.7
-28.3
22.4
50.7
45.1
2009
153.0
127.6
25.3
-24.3
30.1
54.5
25.9
2010e
172.1
160.0
12.1
-47.6
24.2
71.9
35.0
2011e
194.0
208.0
-14.0
-85.7
24.9
110.6
45.0
Economic activity
GDP (% var)
Industrial production (IBGE)
5.7%
8.3%
3.2%
3.1%
4.0%
2.8%
6.1%
6.0%
5.1%
3.1%
-0.2%
-7.4%
5.6%
12.3%
4.2%
5.5%
Inflation
IPCA
IGP-M
7.6%
12.4%
5.7%
1.2%
3.1%
3.8%
4.5%
7.8%
5.9%
9.8%
4.3%
-1.7%
5.4%
6.5%
4.8%
6.0%
3.8%
2.8%
48.2%
3.9%
3.4%
48.0%
3.2%
3.5%
45.9%
3.4%
2.8%
42.8%
3.5%
2.0%
37.3%
2.1%
3.3%
43.0%
2.5%
2.6%
39.9%
3.3%
1.9%
39.1%
2.93
2.65
16.25%
17.75%
2.44
2.34
19.05%
18.00%
2.18
2.14
15.08%
13.25%
1.95
1.77
11.88%
11.25%
1.83
2.34
12.48%
13.75%
2.00
1.74
9.93%
8.75%
1.77
1.78
10.08%
12.25%
1.84
1.90
12.20%
12.25%
Public sector
Public sector primary surplus (% of GDP)
Public sector nominal deficit (% of GDP)
Net debt to GDP ratio
Interest rate and exchange rate
FX (average of period, BRL/USD)
FX (end of period, BRL/USD)
SELIC interest rate (average)
SELIC interest rate (end of period)
11
Apêndice 1- Pressupostos para projeção dívida/PIB
► Optimistic path (assumptions from 2011 onward):
► Nominal GDP growth at 9.5%
► Selic rate at 8.5%
► Primary fiscal surplus at 3.5% of GDP
► Neutral path (assumptions from 2011 onward):
► Nominal GDP growth at 8.5%
► Selic rate at 10.5%
► Primary fiscal surplus at 2.0% of GDP
► Pessimistic path (assumptions from 2011 onward):
► Nominal GDP growth at 7.5%
► Selic rate at 12.5%
► Primary fiscal surplus at 1.0% of GDP
► The three scenarios suppose average FX constant at 1.90 from 2011 onward,
and both reserves and external debt stable at Dec/10 levels.
12
Disclosure appendix
Analyst certification
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or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the
specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Andre Loes
This report is designed for, and should only be utilised by, institutional investors. Furthermore, HSBC believes an investor's decision to make an investment should
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