Economic activity - The Political and Institutional Panorama

Transcrição

Economic Outlook 2015
A prospect for recovery
March/2015
©2015 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu. Todos os direitos reservados.
Index
• Brazil as a global player
• Political scenario
• Economic scenarios
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
−
2015 Key-points
Economic activity
Income and wages
Foreign sector
Money market
Financial market
Public sector
Investments
Agriculture
Industry activity
Services
• Global scenarios
− USA
− Europe
− Latin America
− China
− India
− Russia
− Japan
− Southeast Asia
− Commodities
Note: All decimals are described in the Brazilian format. So in this presentation the use of “.” to represent thousands, instead of “,” which represent decimals.
A country with resources
“Your ancestors must have pleased God that he has given you
so much. I envy you”
Zhao Zhyang, Chinese Prime Minister in 1985 on his visit to Carajás mine, delighted with the
abundance of natural resources in Brazil.
Brazil as a global player
4
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text)
• USA, the highest nominal GDP in US$ globally,
representing 25% of the total.
Economic activity
• China now accounts for 14% of the total, also
appearing as the highest GDP PPP (purchasing
power parity) today.
Nominal GDP  US$ Billions
2014
2
• EIU forecasts indicate that China will overtake the
US by 2050 also in Nominal GDP
17.404
1
10.366
3
4.613
4
3.827
5
2.985
6
2.852
7
2.249
8
2.159
9
10
2.158
• Brazil lost the 6th position as the world's largest
economy in 2013, and remained as the 7th also in
2014. EIU indicates that in the next two years India
may surpass Brazil
• Canada, which appears as the 11th among the
largest economies, is expected to overtake Russia
in 2015 due to the unstable scenario in the
European country.
1.959
71.543
Source: Research – Deloitte (based on EIU data.)
5
• Even with the current unstable political or economic
situation, the IMF holds the prospects that Brazil
could become the 5th largest economy by 2050.
Social indicators
92,5% of illiteracy rate
Natural resources
74 years
Position in the global
production ranking
Agriculture
1st
1st
23rd Wheat 1st Sugar cane
1st Maize 3rd Beef
Coffee
Soy
Water
resources
Oil and
gas
Mining
3rd
Iron ore
12nd Oil
1st
Renewable
resources
1st
Niobium
34th
10th
3rd
Drinking
water
11st
6
Gold
Natural gas
Shale gas
112
Production of minerals, oil and gas reserves, potential water resources
nd Sanitation
Life expectancy
8,5 million Km2.
7% of the entire
global territory
Gini
Index
203 million
people,
3% of global
population
5th
51,9
154th total ranking
highest globally
0,74 HDI
79th total ranking
SWOT
S
Largest player in commodities,
agricultural products and basic
manufactured goods.
W
America's second largest
economy.
O
Diversification in the export
tariff and new business
partners;
Investment in alternative fuels.
T
Low productivity
Large deficit in infrastructure
Social issues still lossmaking.
Instability in China;
Fall in the commodities
prices
Investor distrust.
Source: IMF, CIA World Factbook, US Geological Survey, ONU, FAO, IBGE, Bacen and EIU. Last available data.
Political scenario
7
text)
Political scenario
President Dilma Rousseff was re-elected with 51.6% of the votes taking the Workers' Party (PT) for the fourth term in a row
and will turn 16 years in front of the Brazilian federal government.
However, the end of the first term of the President was followed by harsh criticism of the conduct of economic policy (Gross
Domestic Product of the country had an average growth of 2% per year between 2011 and 2013, the lowest level since
Collor’s government in the beginning of the 90’s).
Since 2013, the President had a strong fall in popularity and has seen numerous protests in major Brazilian cities. Some of
these protests have specific demands as price adjustment for urban transport. However, there is a widespread perception of
society about the dissatisfaction of the political leadership in general demanding "deeper“ political reforms.
Therefore, PT assumes a
fourth term with many
challenges not only in the
economic but also the
political and social scene.
“Political Reform”
Key-word in the social demand
8










Return of the Macroeconomic Tripod
Adjustment over public accounts
Return of inflation to the target center
Adjust the external accounts
Continued social policies
Continued wage recovery
Investment in infrastructure - PAC 3
Policies for Education incentive
Fighting corruption
Reform and tax policy
Economic
stability
Economic
tripod
Inflation target
Economic scenario
9
text)
2015 Key-points
10
text)
 Searching for better transparency and fiscal control;
 Best management practices of public and private companies;
 Maintenance of the "economic tripod" (foreign exchange, inflation,
fiscal).
Business Key-points
 Rising food prices;
 Project prioritization
Market
confidence
 Increase in the cost of electricity;
 Steady increase in social and
economic demand in infrastructure.
 Water scarcity;
 Tax adjustments.
Infrastructure
demand
Inflationary
pressure
Key-points
for 2015 in
Brazil
 Inflation target and expected
increase in the US interest rates.
Increased
basic
interest rate
 Shortage of man-power;
 Maintenance of consumption;
 Pressure on prices.
11
Low
unemployment
rate
Falling
commodity
prices
 The lower demand from China,
India and Europe will require
greater efforts of large national
companies to keep their sales;
 Market value drop of exporting
companies and lower liquidity for
the stock market;
 Need for new business
partnerships.
Economic activity
12
text)
Economic activity
Real GDP
% Variation – end of the year
Gross Domestic Product
7,6
After a slow growth of the Brazilian economic
activity, the market remains pessimistic for the
coming years.
6,0
5,0
4,0
The expectation is that 2015 remains on
stand-by, waiting for the government
responses in the first quarter compared to the
steps to be taken regarding the economic
support.
10
8
0,4
-0,2
5
7
11
Nominal GDP
1,1
1,4
1,7
7,1
6,5
6,0
5,6
5,2
4,8
4,4
4,1
3,7
3,2
3,0
2,7
2,4
0,9
1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2050
US$ Trillions
R$ Trillions
2,1
16
13
0,1
2,5
2,0
1,8
1,0
Thousands
9
7
2,3
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Position of Brazil among the largest
global economies - Nominal GDP
7
3,9
Exchange rate
devaluation
1,6
2,1
2,5
2,2
2,2
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,7
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on BACEN, Focus, EIU and IMF). 2015-2018 forecast.
Economic activity
Consumer price index
The price of food and housing in the country were the hardest hit by the inflation increase. Agricultural commodities and manufactured goods also
had a significant price increase in the transfer to the consumer.
The fight against inflation in the country, without a deterioration in interest and public sector, will be the main challenge of Dilma during this year.
All that is conducive to sustainable growth in the medium term.
Inflationary % Variation over
goods and services
Education
10
IPCA inflation target
Food
% var. p.y.
6
2
Health
Household
goods
Larger inflationary
trend
4,5
5
0
5,9
6,5
5,8
5,9
2012
2013
6,4
6,5
5,7
5,5
5,5
2016
2017
2018
4,3
4
-2
3
Communication
2
-4
-0,2
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
% var. p.m. (dec)
Volume of the bubble based on the average
% price variation in the last 3 years
14
5,9
6
Transports
IPCA %
8
7
Clothing
Inflation
Meta datarget
inflação
Lower limit
Limite
inferior
9
8
4
Limite
superior
Upper limit
10
Consumption Household
1
3,1
1
0
2006
2007
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on Central Bank and IBGE data). 2015-2018 forecast.
2008
2009
2010
2011
2014
2015
Economic activity
Real interest rates
Relation between Selic rate and Price index (IPCA) - %
Interest rates
The main instrument to combat
inflationary growth are the interest rate,
relied on the orthodox economic tripod.
Inflation reach the
goal, decrease on
interest rates  Inflow
of foreign capital
11,6
For 2015 the focus is to increase the Selic
gradually during the year, which together
with the reduction of public spending, may
reduce at medium term the rising inflation
in the country.
7,2
6,3
Inflationary
“boom”
5,5
5,4
5,0
14
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
12,75
10,75
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
10,50
9,75
2011
2014
12,50
2012
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on Central Bank and IBGE data). 2015-2018 forecast.
4,6
4,3
2015
2016
2017
2018
12,50
12,00
11,75
11,38
9,00
8,50
2010
5,4
2,4
12,00
8,75
2009
15
2006
9,50
10,25
5,6
3,8
1,3
Interest rates - Selic
% Variation – end of the month
Speculative expectancy of
falling rates with Levy's
entry in Central Bank
7,25
2013
2014
2015
2016
Economic activity
Exchange rate
With the economic growth in mid-2010, the
results of currency appreciation caused a
major incentive for inflow of foreign currency,
leading to an expectation of less than R$/US$
1.80 for 2014.
But with the current unstable political and
economic environment, the real depreciated,
and closed the year at R$/US$ 2.66.
Country Risk – EMBI+
700
Base points
600
12/31/2014
500
400
300
200
100
Exchange rate
3,25
3,00
R$/€
2,75
2,50
2,25
2,00
R$/US$
1,75
1,50
16
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on Central Bank, JP Morgan, EMBI +,IBGE). 2015-2018 Forecast.
Economic activity
International reserves
International reserves
US$ Billions, end of the year
Lower expectative among foreign market.
Fall in commodities exports
Reservas Internacionais
US$ Bilhões, no final de cada período
379
352
376
379
Empréstimos
do FMI
FMI Loans
International
reserves
Reservas
Internacionais
25
28
2014
2015
374
180
86
194
2006
2007
194
239
239
289
54
86
28
54
25
28
21 2002 2003 2004 2005
17
377
21
17
17
374
289
352
180
21
376
21
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
28
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on Central Bank and IBGE data).
Economic activity
Financing the economy
Without enough domestic savings to finance investments and promote the growth of national activity, the borrowing requirements of the
Brazilian economy almost tripled, from R$ 56.9 billion after more controlled results of the financial crisis in 2009 to R$ 217.2 billion in 2014.
National economy net lending
R$ Billions
Savings / GDP (%) (right axis)
50
Net lending (R$ Billions)
27,3
0
-50
-50,1
-56,9
-100
-150
-200
-250
2000
18
2001
2002
2003
2004
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on Central Bank and IBGE data).
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
-233,6
2013
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
2014
Economic activity
National treasure
Government expenditures on personnel, social programs, investments and administrative costs exceeded revenues in 2014 at R$ 17.2 billion. With
the push of the electoral calendar, expenditures were accelerated and reached R$ 1.03 trillion; the tax revenue, hampered by the weakness of the
economy and tax relief measures, reached R$ 1.01 trillion. The data, resulting in a treasure deficit, should significantly impact the public debt level
over current GDP
Income and expenses of the National Treasury
R$ Billions
Net revenue
Total expenses
Public debt over GDP - %
1.100
1.000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
100% of GDP
65
63
61
59
57
57
53 54
2006
19
64 64 64
2007
2008
2009
2010
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on National Treasury and EIU data).
2011
2012
2013
2014
Transformação
Adm., saúde e educação públicas
Outros serviços
Comércio
Ativ. Imobiliárias e aluguel
Agriculture
Financial services
Civil Construction
Transports
4%2% 19%
4%
4%
Eletricity,
5% water and gas
IT 6%
15%
7%
Mining
9%
12% 13%
Economic activity
GDP Composition - Supply perspective
•
The services sector remains the main thread
from the supply perspective in current GDP.
•
Over the past 10 years, the participation
increase of other sectors, Agriculture and
Industry were minimal.
•
The service sector represents about 70% of
the Brazilian GDP, fueled mainly by trade,
retail and public activities.
•
•
•
•
20
GDP¨% Composition by activity(*)
2004-2014
Transformation
Health and public administration
Other services
Trade
Real estate
Agropecuária
Intermed. Financeira e seguros
4% 2%
4% Construção Civil
19%
Transportes, armazenagem
e correio
4%
Prod. Distrib. Eletricidade, gás e água
5%
Serviços de Informação
Extrativa Mineral
Individually, the main activity that adds the
most value in the Brazilian economy changed
in the last ten years.
We can perceive a clear drop in the share of
manufacturing in the Brazilian GDP in the last
10 years.
6%
2% 4%
13%
5%
18%
7%
15%
7%
Which also shows the increased participation
of public services; rising from 15% to 18%
The share of trade increase 1 pp.
2%
5%
6%
9%
9%
2004
13%
12%
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on Central Bank, EIU and IBGE data). (*) Exempt of taxes and adjusted to 2014..
2014
16%
13%
Economic activity
GDP Composition – Demand perspective
•
•
GDP % Composition by activity
2004-2014
GDP can also be seen from the demand
perspective. Indicating how much the country
has spent to structure their own economy.
Taking into account household consumption,
government consumption, investment
(calculated by gross capital formation), and the
Trade Balance, we can see that just as in the
supply situation, population consumption is the
"driving force" of the economy also in demand.
•
It is important to note the increase of 2% (or
US$ 750 million) in government spending (from
19% to 21%) during the last 10 years, focused
especially in social programs.
•
The rest of the matrix composition continued
virtually unchanged if analyzed during 20042014.
4%
16%
17%
19%
2004
21
Consumption
Government
Investments
Exports
Imports
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on Central Bank and iBGE). Quarterly national accounts adjusted for 2014.
60%
21%
10%
13%
14%
-1%
15%
60%
2014
Economic activity
GDP Composition - Regional
The Southeast, and more specifically the state of São Paulo, still is the main driving force
of the Brazilian GDP.
Regional growth evolution
Index: 2006 = 100
Representing 55% of the total of contributions from all the States.
220
However, in a period of 10 years, we can see the strong growth in the Northeast region
(raw numbers), and in both North and Centre-West (transformed into a base index 100).
This strong growth is due mainly by the arrival of large companies in these regions and
increased investment in both infrastructure focused on creating economic hubs within
regions.
200
180
160
9%
5%
Regional GDP
% Composition
10%
5%
140
Southeast
13%
South
120
14%
Northeast
56%
Centre-West
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
North
17%
16%
2002
22
100
55%
2012
Source: Research-Deloitte (based on Central Bank and iBGE data). National Accounts data. 2012 = Last data available.
North
Northeast
Southeast
South
Centre-West
Income and wages
23
text)
Nominal average income
End of the year - R$
Income and wages
2.122
Unemployment and wages
1.967
1.850
The unemployment rate in the Brazilian economy has been showing
decline since October 2003, reaching its lowest level in 2014 (4.3%).
1.623
1.515
1.282
This has helped minimum wage appreciation policy that has been
adjusted since 2005 according to GDP variation during the period.
1.011
1.086
1.344
1.162
874 862 908
Unemployment rate in Brazil
End of the year (%)
10,5
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Minimum wage
End of the year - R$
10,9
788
9,6
622
8,3 8,4
7,4
6,8
6,8
287
240 260
5,3 5,2
4,6
4,3
373
461
724
544
4,3
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
24
338
409
510
678
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Central Bank and iBGE). Note: Corresponding data from the metropolitan areas of Salvador, Recife, Belo
Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre and Sao Paulo.
Income and wages
Economic classes
Among the income indicators, the main highlight is 50,0%
the increase of population in the middle lasses. The C
and D class increased from 42% to 48% in 9 years.
While the population within income classes A and B
also increased. The share rose from 13% to 15%
between 2005 and 2014.
Population in each economic class
% breakdown
48,4%
47,7%
48,0%
23,3
46,7%
45,9%
46,0%
44,9%
44,9%
21,3
44,5%
Euromonitor Methodology:
A/B Classes – % breakdown of people with a
gross wage of up to 150% of the average
worker.
C/D Classes – % breakdown of people with a
gross salary between 50% and 150% of the
average worker.
E Class – % breakdown of people with a lower
gross salary 50% of the average worker.
44,0%
42,0%
43,8%
43,7%
43,3%
42,4% 42,7%
42,6%
42,3%
42,0%
43,0%
41,7%
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Euromonitor data).
43,2% 43,5%
44,0%
19,3
17,3
40,0%
13,8% 13,9%
13,4% 13,5% 13,6%
14,2%
15,2%
15,0%
14,5% 14,7%
38,0%
15,3
13,3
2005
2006
2007
E
25
25,3
2008
2009
C/D
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
A/B
Foreign sector
26
text)
Foreign sector
Trade balance
Currently imports has been rising above the exports, generating an erosion in the trade surplus in recent years. It is clear to point out that this
trend could create a deficit, especially with the increase in the value of imports, the appreciation of the dollar against the real, but mostly the
increase in commodity prices during 2014, which affected the main Brazilian trade partner: China.
However, in recent months, the price of minerals and agricultural products has fallen sharply, resulting into a turnover into Brazilian trade
balance, which closed the year with a deficit of US $ -4 billion, lower than the expected by the market.
Brazilian trade balance
US$ Billions
Exportação
Exports
Importação
Imports
256
226
153
161
161
138
119
97
58 56 60 47
73
2001
2003
2002
63
74
2004
2005
48
121
243
223
242 240
225 229
128
153
173
121
91
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on MDIC data).
27
Main exported products - 2014
Main imported products - 2014
Foreign sector
18%
Trade balance
14%
Mining
Soy
Brazilian export list
2014
8%
10%
Transports
material
Oil
Commodities – 63%
Capital and Consumption goods – 28%
19%
Fuel and
lubricants
14%
Mechanic
equipment
12%
8%
Electronics
Vehicles
7%
5%
Beef
Chemicals
Commodity price index
Index base (Dec/2006=100)
Fuel – 7%
Others – 2%
205
180
155
130
105
80
Dec/2014
55
Dez 2007 Dez 2008 Dez 2009 Dez 2010 Dez 2011 Dez 2012 Dez 2013 Dez 2014 Dez
Preço
das Commodities
Commodities
price
28
Source: Research - Deloitte (a based on MDIC, Central Bank and IMF data).
Volume das
Exportações
Exports
volume
Foreign sector
Partners with:
Trade balance
Exports
Imports
Major trading partners of Brazil and its products
Both
Gold
Iron ore
Soy
Soy
Iron ore
Oil
Iron
Coffee
Diesel
Thrusters
Propane
Vehicles
Chemicals
Pesticides
Fungicides
Electronics
Autoparts
Iron ore
Poultry
Pulp
Coffee
Machinery
Equipment
Iron ore
Soy
Electronics
Mobile
Beef
Sugar cane
Oil
Diesel
Oil
Beef
Cars
Cars
29
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Central Bank, IMF and EIU).
Brasil – Argentina
US$ Billions
Foreign sector
14
The decline in manufactured goods exports to Argentina influenced
directly in the trade balance since the beginning of the year, this is
among the main reasons for the fall in the income results e between
the two countries at the end of the year.
It also resulted into a deficit result of the Brazilian trade balance
account, with the Chinese economic slowdown (and thus the drop in
trade with the country), Argentina was expected to be the major
Brazilian partner this year.
Brasil – USA
US$ Billions
27
27
26
20
19
13
36
34
25
25
26
35
32
27
25
10
10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
Results
Exports
Brasil – China
US$ Billions
Imports
46
44
31
41
41
33
34
37
37
26
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(-)
(-)
(-)
(-)
(-)
(-)
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on MDIC data).
11
2006
20
Imports
14 14
2005
17
Exports
16
16
8
16
15
20
6
19
2006
30
12
13 13
17
18
14
27
2005
Results
19
18
Trade balance
23
23
11
21
16
13
7 5
8 8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(+)
(+)
(-)
(-)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
(+)
Results
Exports
Imports
Income and services
US$ Billions – Account balance
Foreign sector
Income and services
In 2012, and for the first time since 2000 the balance of
services recorded levels higher than income. Thus
reflecting the output of related resources, basically to
services more than revenues sent abroad, a situation that
remained in the last two years.
Services
Serviços
Income
Rendas
(47)
(41)
(34)
(29)
(27)
(17)
This results show a high level on international travel
(outflow of US$ 18.7 billion) and in equipment rental
service delivery (US$ 22.7 billion).
(38)
(41)
(40)
(40)
(35)
(31)
(19)
(13)
(10)
2006
Largest accounts of net services
US$ Billions
(40)
(49)
(47)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
(5,0)
(10,0)
International
travel
Viagens
internacionais
International
travel
IT services e informação
Computação
and
licenses
Royalties e
licenças
Equipment
rental
Aluguel
de equipamentos
Insurances
Seguros
(15,0)
(20,0)
(25,0)
31
2006
2007
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Central Bank).
2008
-18,7
-22,7
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Foreign sector
Balance of payments
The current account recorded in 2014 a US$ 90 billion deficit in total.
This negative result, however, was offset by the increase of financial transactions within the Brazilian accounts (primarily in fixed income
securities), which added to the significant increase in the sale of services and income abroad, thus overlapping the bad result of the trade
balance (deficit) and managing the balance of payments to close the year with a positive result (US$ 10.8 billion), as opposed to 2013 (when
it had a US$ -5.9 billion deficit).
Balance of Payments
US$ Billions
Trade balance
Net services and incomes
Unilateral transfers
Current account
Capital and financial account
Errors and omissions
Balance results
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
25,3
-52,9
3,3
20,3
-70,6
2,8
29,7
-85,2
2,9
19,4
-76,5
2,8
2,4
-86,8
3,4
-0,3
-88,3
1,9
-24,3
71,3
-0,3
46,7
-47,5
100,1
-3,5
49,1
-52,6
111,9
-0,6
58,6
-54,2
72,7
0,3
18,9
-81,1
74,2
0,9
-5,9
-90,3
97,7
-1,3
10,8
Note 1. Errors and omissions: The exit of credit and debit released in the balance of payments comes from various sources of information, generating in practice, a net-zero. The main reason lies in the discrepancies of
different temporal data sources used. Thus, it becomes necessary to launch of a balancing data of accounts. Errors and omissions lend themselves therefore to compensate for any overestimation or underestimation of
registered components.
32
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Central Bank data).
FDI Inflow
Share by country - 2014
Foreign sector
19%
Foreign direct investment (FDI)
FDI showed a slight decrease in 2014 compared with the previous
year, leading to Brazil's fall in the ranking of largest global FDI inflow
(from the 5th position to the 7th).
Nevertheless, the Central Bank and the EIU expect that the FDI
inside the country remains representing 2.9% of GDP from 2013 to
2017. Meaning that the inflow of foreign capital should remain at
about US$ 60 billion in the coming years
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
US$ Billions
67
65
64
26
22
18
17
15
19
10
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
33
16%
5%
6%
8%
62
35
33
2%
3%
3%
9%
9%
Share by segment - 2014
48
45
Netherlands
USA
Luxembourg
Spain
Japan
Portugal
France
Switzerland
United Kingdom
Germany
Others
20%
Trade
Telecommunications
Financial activities
Vehicles and autoparts
Chemicals
Metallurgy
Chemicals
Oil and gas extraction
Mining
Insurances
Real estate
Food
IT Equipments
Others
10%
9%
35%
8%
5%
3%
4%
3%
4%
3%
4%
4% 4% 4%
BDI Outflow
Share by country - 2014
Foreign sector
Brazilian Direct Investment (BDI)
The Brazilian Direct Investment abroad showed a growth
resumption during 2014. This result is also a reflection of the
performance of national companies’ investments through the year.
Notwithstanding, the high % share of the country outflow
continues to be inside Fiscal Paradises (mainly represented by:
Cayman Islands, Bahamas, British Virgin Islands, Panama,
Bermuda and Monaco).
Brazilian Direct Investment (BDI)
Capital outflow - US$ Billions
1%
Fiscal Paradises
Portugal
USA
Austria
Luxembourg
Switzerland
Spain
Chile
Argentina
Uruguay
Others
8%
44%
9%
12%
18%
Share by segment - 2014
Inverted signal (Debt)
30,2
24,4
24,1
23,5
18,2
18,0
13,7
12,1
8,5
7,8
2,5
2,8
3,9
2001 2002 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
34
4%
Financial Activities
Non-financial holding companies
Telecom
Mining support activities
Metallurgy
Mining
Trade
Oil products
Food
Vehicles
Other
1%
3%
8%
34%
6%
8%
18%
19%
Money market
35
text)
Credit loans
Credit / GDP (%)
Money market
Credit loans
59,0
53,9
56,0
2012
2013
49,1
In 2013 and 2014, credit operations grew more moderately
compared with the expansion at the beginning of former president
Lula’s government in 2003, mainly driven by loans taken by
individuals.
The total credit loans in Brazil during 2014 reached R$ 3.0 trillion,
leading to an increase in the GDP ratio to 59% of the entire value
of the Brazilian nominal revenue during the year.
29,4
2006
41,3
41,8
41,2
2008
2009
2010
32,7
2007
2011
Credit Operations in Brazil
R$ Billions
733
2006
36
936
2007
1.227
2008
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Central Bank data)
Note 1. Credit operations from public and private sector.
1.414
2009
1.706
2010
2.034
2011
2.368
2012
2.715
2013
2014
3.022
2014
Money market
Credit loans
Default
% end of the month
6,0
The corporate default rate increased 0.2
percentage points compared with the end
of last year, reaching 2.0% in December
2014, a marginal index if considered the
big directed credit values.
The individual default rate, however,
continues to fall, reaching 4.2% at the
end of the year.
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
Corporate
Average interest rate for Corporations and Individuals
% variation at the end of the month
Individual
Pessoa
Física
Individual
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Pessoa
Jurídica
Corporate
2009
37
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Dez/14
Money market
Credit loans by type
% Composition
Credit loans
19%
The loan approvals had an increase growth in recent years,
mainly promoted to combat the recent economic situation coupled
with the great immersion of a new demographic population in the
middle class, a larger access to credit was given for the purchase
of vehicles and households, especially for individuals.
Companies continue with the main credit facility, the BNDES,
continues to contribute with the highest gross value of all Brazilian
installment system.
45%
16%
7%
1% 5%
Financiamento BNDES
BNDES
Imobiliário
Real
estate
Veículos
Vehicles
Rural
Credit cards
Cartão
de crédito
Products acquisitions
Aquisição
de bens
Outros
Others
7%
Credit concession by type
US$ Billions
19
17
Vehicles
Real estate
15
13
11
9
7
5
38
Capital market
39
text)
Global stock market
Index: 01/02/2010 = 100
Capital market
170
Stock exchange
150
The decline of Ibovespa index can be observed both in its
variations within the country since 2012: (i) Where most recently
the case of the oil and mining listed companies, which held much
of the Ibovespa market value, had a fall over his index to about
52,000 points.
130
110
90
70
(ii) We can also examine the effect taken into account a index 100
basis in 2010, and see that the European stock markets and North
America, even after crisis surpassed the average value of
Brazilian growth.
29/10/2010
Ibovespa
04/08/2011
29/05/12
Dow Jones
01/04/13
Fontes:
70
Announcement of the end of US’ QE
65
03/12/2013
Euronext 100
31/12/2014
31/12/2014
19/08/2014
31/12/2014
31/12/2014
Shanghai
* medido pelo EMBI+ do JP
Fonte: Banco
Ibovespa index
Thousand points
Thousands
50
04/01/2010
Fall of the US$
value with the
increase of the
Pessimism in
country interest rate. reported data from
Polls in Brazilian
both the Brazilian
election predict a
and the US economy
second Round.
by BC and FED.
December/2014
“Seesaw Effect”
Low prices and average volatility
on listed companies create a
huge wave of speculation and buy
/ sell orders inside the market
60
55
50
Falling prices of oil, gas and
mining listed companies
Huge decline on
oil companies
price value.
45
40
02/01/2012
11/05/2012
06/09/2012
17/01/2013
21/05/2013
Fontes:
Banco
Central - Research (based on BM&FBovespa, IPEA data and Shanghai Exchange Market data) .
40
Source: Deloitte
Fonte:
Banco Central
e EMBI
17/09/2013
17/01/2014
20/05/2014
16/09/2014
31/12/2014
* medido©2015
peloDeloitte
EMBI+
doTohmatsu.
JP Morgan
Touche
Todos os direitos reservados.
Type of registered offers
5% 1%
Capital market
2007
Stock exchange
3%
The number of IPOs in Brazil has fallen considerably since the start of the
unstable economic scenario that started two years ago.
12%
However, Brazil has a very interesting scenario for a restore on the emissions.
According to Edemir Pinto, BM&FBovespa president in an interview for the
Financial Times, Brazil has about 60 IPOs ready to be launched in
4%
7%
Stocks
Audiovisual certificate
Debentures
FIDC
Real estate bonds
140
120
100
80
60
40
52
15
8
26
11
21
2007
2008
2009
5
19
20
0
IPOs
Subsequent
Offers
41
Market value
140
64
12
4
9
7
11
1
8
2010
2011
2012
10
15
11
14
3
10
Source: Deloitte - Research (based on BM&FBovespa, CVM and Thomson data).
17
3
2013
15
9
1
15
2014
2
1
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
Millions
Public offering and BM&FBovespa market value evolution
R$ Billions
12
27%
8%
the market is the political and economic situation remain stable
throughout the year.
160
19%
14%
15%
2014
BDR
CRI
Promissory notes
FIP
Other shares and bonds
3%1%
4%
10%
47%
7%
13%
Stocks
CRI
FIP
Subscription bonus
Debentures
Real estate bonds
Audiovisual certificate
FIDC
Brazilian portfolio evolution
US$ Billions
Capital market
Stock exchange
Fixed
Rendaincome
Fixa
32
Much of the decline of investments of IPOs emissions and the
Brazilian stock market in general is due the recently lack of in the
entire political and economic scenario inside the country.
This can be shown by the increase in fixed income investments (less
volatile than the stock market), as well as the significant results of
the National Treasury and Government bonds through 2014.
Açõesmarket
Stock
25
24
20
15
12
10
6
5
11
6
0
Best type of investments in 2014
Index (01/02/14) = 100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
120
110
100
90
80
1/2/2014
2/2/2014
3/2/2014
4/2/2014
5/2/2014
Fixed income (CDI bonds)
Gold (daily price)
42
Source: Deloitte - Research (based on BM&FBovespa and Economatica data).
6/2/2014
7/2/2014
8/2/2014
US$ (daily price)
Savings account (daily yield)
9/2/2014
10/2/2014
11/2/2014
12/2/2014
Stock market (Ibovespa index)
Capital market
Merger & Acquisition
The fall in the number of M&A in 2014 (893) compared to 2013 (938) shows the current economic slowdown of the Brazilian
economy. This decrease should be maintained through the entire year of 2015, as business confidence will focus on identifying
speculation around the new government's direction and how this will impact over the investors and company owners’ business.
Merger and Acquisitions
Number of operations
872
938
893
588
329
2010
43
2011
2012
2013
Source: Deloitte - Research (based on press, TTR and Thomson data). Includes Mergers, Acquisitions, Partnerships, Joint Ventures, OPA, Minority,
PE and VC.
2014
Public sector
44
text)
Public sector net debt
Central government, state and city governments, state owned
companies - % GDP Main reasons that justify increased debt over GDP during this period:
Public sector
Net debt and primary surplus
The Government is moving into the direction of an adoption
for primary surplus in the entire balance (balance sheet
results before payment of debts and interest), this view
appears to be in line with the new competitiveness focus of
the country, adopting crucial measures to remove
infrastructure bottlenecks.
However, the primary balance reached a deficit in their
accounts at the end of 2014, something that had not
happened since November 1998.
-
51
8
48
3
42
45
2004
2005
Renegotiation of state government’s debts
Debts recognitions
Interest rate increase
45
39
42
39
37
35
34
37
48
53
49
51
49
49
49
49
52
-1
-7
-11
-9
-10
-13
-14
-15
-15
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
47
foreign
net debt
Dívida externa
líquida
Dívida
interna
líquida
National
net debt
Public sector nominal and primary surplus
Central government, state and city governments, state owned companies - % GDP
(12 months accumulated)
3,8
-3,4
4,1
-2,2
4,1
2,1
2,8
-3,3
-2,5
-1,5
3,1
-2,6
Primary
Primário
Nominal
2,4
1,9
-2,5
-0,6
-3,3
-6,7
2006
45
2007
2008
Source: Deloitte - Research (based on Central Bank data).
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Public sector
21%
24%
Tax and fees
The Brazilian federal revenue has grown substantially in the last 15 years
cycle (an increase of 419% from 2010 to 2014).
Taxes levied on goods (ICMS) and the incidence of income tax on both
individuals and corporations (IR) were the plots that grew the most in overall
taxation value.
The two are also the two main government revenues, with almost 40% of the
total.
ICMS
IR
INSS
COFINS
FGTS
IPI
IOF
Others
2%
2%
17%
6%
11%
17%
Brazil’s annual tax revenue
R$ Billions
939
1.101
1.147
2013
2014
992
800
676
690
2008
2009
600
515
2006
46
2007
Source: Deloitte - Research (based on Federal reserve data).
2010
2011
2012
Difference between the incidence of taxes and benefits in each country
Public sector
But regarding the use of the tax for
the benefit of the country, Brazil still
has a very large gap if compared with
other countries, being one of the
highest rates of GDP (~35%) and
lower use in public services benefits.
% GDP in taxes
Tax and fees
IRBES index (1) – Return to the society welfare
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
IRBES GAP
(Appearing only in the 30th position of the IRBES
index, calculated by the OECD)
Total annual tax on GDP
% GDP
40%
FHC 1
FHC 2
Lula 1
Lula 2
Dilma
35%
30%
25%
20%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
47
Source: Deloitte - Research (based on Federal Reserve, OECD and UN). Note 1: The IRBES are the results from the sum of the tax burden, weighted
percentage for the importance of this parameter, with the HDI, equally weighted.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Investments
48
text)
PAC
Investments
Disbursements made by PAC I and PAC II – 2007-2014
R$ Billions
Investment plans
68,0
Brazilian Infrastructure evolution
% GDP
53,7
39,3
5,4
0,5
7,3
Água
Saneamento
Watereand
sanitation
Transportes
Transports
3,6
2,0
0,2
1,5
0,8
2007
Telecomunicações
Telecom
Eletricidade
Electricity
2,7
0,2
2,6
0,2
2,3 2,3
2,3 2,2 2,1
0,2
0,2
0,2
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,6
1,1
0,6
0,5
0,6
0,6
0,6
0,8
0,7
0,9
1,0
0,9
0,8
0,7
1990
2000
2010
2011
2012
0,6
0,4
1,1
2,1
0,2
1,5
1970
1980
2008
17,9
2009
2010
28,0
2011
2012
2013
*2014
Companies
0,2
0,6
11,3
22,1
2013 *2014
Company
Petrobras
Eletrobras
Furnas
Vale
Trump Organization / EVEN / Salamanca / MRPI
Louis Dreyfus Commodities (LDC)
Vanguarda Agro (Gávea Investimentos - JP Morgan)
Grupo Ultrapar
Bridgestone / Firestone
Sumitomo
ECO
Bresco
Prebuild
Biourja Trending
Value (R$ Billions)
236,7
52,4
40,0
35,7
0,81
0,77
0,26
0,19
0,16
0,16
0,15
0,14
0,11
0,11
Source: Renai and companies websites.
49
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on National Treasure, press, IPEA/World Bank/ BNDES - *Pezco Microanalysis and National Treasure expectations).
Agriculture
50
text)
Agribusiness: Exports
2014, % Composition
Agriculture
Soy complex continue as the main export product of the Brazilian
Agribusiness, with 37% of the total in 2014, followed by beef (20%); sugar and
alcohol with 12%, which has been decreasing its share since 2011 (from 19%
to 12%).
Agricultural production has also increased substantially over the last 10 years,
especially sugar cane, which accounts for about 70% of the production of the
last four season crops, with expected production of 650 thousand grains for
2015.
452
258
292
331
319
37%
8%
8%
12%
476
Position and share of Brazilian grain production
globally
385
1st
2nd
1st
2nd
3rd
2006
2007
2008
2009
Agricultura
Agriculture
51
331
372
464
Soy Complex
Meat
Sugar
Paper and Pulp
Coffee
Leather
Tobacco
Lumber
Orange
Others
2% 4%
20%
Gross production value of agriculture and livestock
US$ Billions
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
3%
3%
3%
2010
2011
Pecuária
Livestock
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on MDIC, USDA and Conab data).
2012
2013
2014
2015
3rd
4th
5th
21
35
30
17
15
8
3
7
Sugar
Coffee
Soy
Beef
Poultry
Maize
Pork
Cotton
Agropecuária
Agribusiness
Industry
52
text)
Industry
The low growth of global economic activity especially
for the Brazilian market has put the Brazilian industry
"steps back" inside the international competition.
In this sense, even with the growth of the Brazilian
domestic consumption, domestic production had its
physical production almost stagnant.
These results reflected directly with the difficulty with
the international results in terms of competitiveness.
Mainly with automotive, metallurgy and chemical
industries.
Industrial production evolution
Index Sep/2008 = 100
105
-5.2%
100
95
90
Industry Confidence Index
85
120
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
80
53
Financial crisis
75
70
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on IBGE and FGV data). Seasonally adjusted production and sales.
Dec/2014
2%
3%
Metallurgy
Industry
4%
4%
% Global share in steel production
5%
Chemicals
2004
Chemical trade balance
US$ Billions
7%
Exportações
Exports
Importações
Imports
28%
EUA
USA
40
Rússia
Russia
CoreiaKorea
do Sul
South
Alemanha
Germany
Brasil
Brazil
Ucrânia
Ukraine
Others
Outros
30
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
 Maintenance of increased imports
11%
6%
3,1
3,1
3,4
3,4
3,4
3,7
3,1
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
 Decrease in the production and storage of vehicles through the end of the IPI.
54
5%
7%
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on MDIC, Anfavea, World Steel and Ibá data)
2006
9,0
2007
9,4
2008
Paper
13,3
12,7
12,0
10,7
2007
10%
5%
Paper and pulp production
Million ton
8,7
2006
3%
4%
Paper and pulp
Brazilian automotive production
Millions of units
2,4
4%
3%
4%
5%
2%
2%
3%
4%
 Brazil maintains its same global share even with the fall of 3m tons.
Automotive
2,8
49%
Japan
Japão
India
10
18%
China
China
26%
50
20
2014
5%
9,4
2009
14,2
10,0
2010
13,9
10,2
2011
14,0
10,3
2012
Pulp
15,1
10,4
2013
 Increased production and exports – valued stock market for the sector
companies
15,0
9,5
2014
Nov/14
Oil and gas
Industry
Mining
National production of oil
Million barrels
Iron ore exports
US$ Billions - FOB
823
41,8
30,9
28,9
8,9
2006
10,6
2007
16,5
32,5
712
25,8
13,2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
 Drop in exports of iron ore due to Chinese economic situation.
638
2006
2007
768
754
738
2010
2011
2012
2013
663
2008
2009
2014
 Despite the growing production, Brazil suffers from low oil prices and
management problems with its main producer.
Civil construction
Energy
Household deficit
Households without occupation – in Millions
6,3
6,3
6,0
5,5
6,0
6,9
7,5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Installed capacity - gW
8,1
8,9
2012
2013
9,9
11,7
96
2014
 Increased housing deficit, real estate prices still high.
55
629
750
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on MDIC, ANP, Aneel and Fundação João Pinheiro data)
2015
100
103
107
137
113
117
121
127
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013 2014 (*)
 Implementation of new technologies, such as wind power; but there will be an
increase into energy prices and possible blackouts.
(*) Expectation
Services
56
text)
Services
Retail revenue evolution
R$ Billions
The retail sales have shown a tendency to growth in
recent years.
Among the reasons that boosted the industry are mainly
increased income of credit, even after the complicated
scenario in recent years.
255
255
2008
2009
329
328
2010
2011
356
348
353
2012
2013
2014
214
Other important reasons was the increase in the number
of formal jobs.
Retail sales evolution
Index Sep/2008 = 100
174
2006
2007
150
140
Brasil
Brazil
EUA
USA
130
120
110
100
90
80
Dec/2014
70
Dez
57
2004
Dez
2005
Dez
2006
Dez
2007
Dez
2008
Dez 2009
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on IBGE, US Census Bureau and Euromonitor data). Seasonally adjusted.
Dez 2010
Dez 2011
Dez 2012
Dez 2013
Dez 2014
Dez
THL
Services
Agriculture
Industry
Services
Services, agriculture and industry GDP
% variation yoy.
R$ 25,6 bn
2014 WC Investments
12,0
+691 thousand tourists
8,0
Tourism legacy
4,0
0,0
R$ 36,7 bn
Rio 2016 Investments
-4,0
-8,0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Healthcare
 One of the highlights of 2014 was the increased tourism in Brazil due the World
Cup, which generated a R$797 million revenue just in June/July.
Technology, Media and Telecom
Brazilian healthcare revenue
R$ Billions
27
32
37
2006
2007
2008
40
2009
Municipalities covered by 3G in Brazil
46
2010
54
2011
63
2012
70
2013
80
2.625
2014
448
711
2008
2009
3.293
3.554
3.827
2012
2013
2014
1.287
2010
2011
 Increased growth due a fierce investment inside the sector, especially with generic
 ~70% of Brazilian municipalities already have 3G technology, which continues
drugs and health plans.
with a moderate expansion, nevertheless some already are adopting 4G
technology.
58
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Euromonitor, MTUR, Teleco, Abia and Portal da Copa data)
Global scenario
59
text)
USA
60
text)
Industrial production x Capacity utilization
USA
Production (% variation end of the year)
Much of the analysis of the US economy must be
focused in the results of 2014, when the country got its
most satisfactory scenario since the financial crisis;
particularly given the heated industrial production, which
was intensified by all sectors.
10
This resulted in a substantial drop in unemployment, led
by increased employment, higher capacity utilization and
a large increase in domestic demand.
-5
5
85
80
81
2,2
2,5
5,7
78
0
6,6%
2,9
76
77
78
4,2
79
80
75
70
65
-11,3
2007
USA – Employment indicators
Monthly variation
6,7%
3,8
-10
2006
6,7%
3,3
74
69
-3,4
-15
7%
Capacity utilization (%)
2008
2009
60
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Creation of new jobs (variation in 1000)
500
Unemployment rate
6,6%
6,2%
400
6,3%
6,1%
6,2%
6,1%
300
5,9%
6%
5,7%
5,8%
5,6%
200
100
5%
61
84
144
222
203
304
229
267
243
203
271
261
353
252
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Bacen/Bloomberg and Federal Reserve).
0
USA
Nominal GDP
US$ Trillions
The result of the US GDP in the third quarter of 2014 gives
evidence that the country continues its recovery trend.
Considering the last five quarters, the average rate of the US
economy growth reached 2.8%.
Estimates for 2015 show that the recovery of the US economy
will have an impact over the World economy, the growth of the
United States has to compensate for the slowdown in
China that goes through a process of deceleration.
20,7
13,9
14,5 14,7 14,4 15,0
15,5
16,2
16,8
17,4
18,2
18,9
19,7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Price index
% variation (end of the year)
Real GDP
% variation yoy.
4,1
2,7
2,8
3,0
1,8
1,8 1,5
2,5
1,4
2,3 2,4 2,2
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on EIU data).
2,5
1,8
1,6
2,3
2,2
2,4
2,5
2,4
2,6
-0,3
0,7
0,0
62
3,4
-2,8
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
USA
With the end of the US economy adjustment plan (QE Quantitative Easing) announced in October 2014, it is expected a
short-term recovery of the country economy through 2015,
indicating that the country might start to reduce its interest rates.
USA – GDP, Money market interest rates and Federal bonds
interest rates
% variation yoy.
(PIB)
GDP Produto Interno Bruto
Taxa
de bonds
Juros dos
Titulos
Federal
interest
rateFederais
Taxa
demarket
Juros básicas
dos Estados Unidos
Money
interest rate
This also helps the global economy during the weakness of the
countries in Europe, China and Japan, leading to expanding
global demand for dollars causing the devaluation of national
currencies.
6
5
5,3
4,3
4
Conduct of the national currencies against the US$ dollar
US Dollar / National currency - Index 01/01/14=100
2
130
Real-Br
Yen-Jap
Peso-Mex
Euro-Eu
Yuan-Ch
Rand-Afr
4,3
3
1
4,6
4,3
3,7
4,8
4,3
3,3
2,3
3,2
2,8
2,4
2,5
1,8
0,25
0,25
0
115
-1
100
-2
-3
85
-4
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
63
Source: Deloitte Research - (based on Federal Reserve and Exchange rates data)
Europe
64
text)
Europe
Euro Zone
(19 countries)
European Union
United Kingdom
Czech Republic
Austria, Belgium, Cyprus,
Estonia, Finland, France,
Germany, Greece, Ireland,
Italy, Latvia, Lithuania,
Luxembourg, Malta,
Netherlands, Portugal,
Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain.
Hungary
Denmark
Sweden
Bulgaria
Romania
Croatia
65
European Union
(28 countries)
Poland
Europe
Nominal GDP
US$ Trillions
After threatening a risk of default in the public accounts throughout
the entire year of 2012. Greece, Portugal, Ireland and the other
PIIGS (Italy and Spain), showed a slight recovery in their internal
results, mainly by economic plans led by the "troika“, the European
Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary
Fund.
This culminated in important and very considerable recovery results
of the PIIGS in 2014, which influenced directly on various issues
related to the “Orthodox Economic-Tripod”: public accounts,
exchange rate’s appreciation and nominal GDP growth with inflation
and interest adjustments.
0,84
0,80
0,75
0,77
0,76
0,85
0,83
5
5
17
12
12
4
4
18
17
18
20
20
21
18
19
14
15
15
6
6
6
13
12
13
13
13
5
5
5
5
5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
3,0
2,0
0,82
0,73
0,4
1,6
0,8
1,3
1,7
1,7
1,6
-0,7 -0,4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0,69
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
66
4
3,3
0,72
0,68
11
12
14
17
Euro Zone
Real GDP – Euro Zone
% Variation yoy.
Exchange rate – Euro/US$
End of the year
0,76
15
17
19
European Union
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on EIU and IMF data)
-4,5
Price index – Euro Zone
% variation y.y.
Europe
The interest rate and inflation reduction, as shown in the
previous slide helped a strong recovery in the Euro Zone,
which had repercussions on the entire European Union.
In European interest rate chart, we can see the trend of
upraise in the interest rated led by the European Central
Bank for the next four years, mainly by the beginning of
the economic recovery in the region.
3,1
2,8
2,2
2,2
1,6
0,9
1,9
Interest rates – European Central Bank
% variation yoy.
2006
2007
2008
2009
0,8
2010
2011
2012
2013
1,0
1,6
1,3
1,3
2016
2017
0,5
2014
2015
2018
Interest rates into selected countries / regions
% variation yoy.
4,3
150%
4,6
100%
Scenario 1:
Financial Crisis
Fall in the global
interest rates
Scenario 2: Economic disparity
Large gap in the variation of interest rates
between consolidate and emerging
markets.
3,1
Scenario 4:
European Crisis
Second global
interest rates fall.
Scenario 5: US and
Europe recovery
Chinese slowdown
and weak economic
situation in Brazil.
50%
1,9
1,2
0,8
1,4
1,1
0,6
0,2 0,2 0,1 0,4
0%
-50%
Scenario 3:
Recovery of Emerging
markets
-100%
2009
2010
Brasil
Brazil
67
2011
China
2012
EUA
USA
2013
2014
Europe
Europa
Net debt / GDP
% Participation
Europe
175 171
Looking at the net debt results, we can still see that
there is room for improvement within the PIIGS
(Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain),
something that could be pursued with increasing
domestic and industrial credit and incentive tourism
in the region (as happened in 2014), this has
already reduced the unemployment rates in these
countries.
125 129
128 134
2013
120 112
2014
92 98
92 96
100% GDP
74
77 75
40
Portugal
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Spain
Germany
France
UK
% variation of domestic credit of selected
countries
Unemployment
Portugal
5
0
UK
Italy
Italy
Ireland
Greece
Spain
Germany
France
UK
30
-5
25
-10
-15
France
Portugal
Ireland
-20
20
15
10
Germany
Greece
2012
68
Spain
2013
5
0
2014
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Latin America
69
text)
Latin American countries share on region’s GDP
% Participation
Latin America
12%
The deceleration of Latin American Real GDP (2.4% to 1.0%) has
a more cyclical nature than structural. But it was also affected by
the recent slowdown in emerging countries.
However, the region is resistant to possible recession in
developed countries (double-dip recession), thanks to strong
economic fundamentals and a more concise domestic demand,
through access to credit and the expansion of the workforce. But
inflation, however, begins to expand dramatically in Venezuela,
Brazil, Mexico and Argentina.
Consumer prices
4%
Brazil
Mexico
Argentina
Colombia
Venezuela
Chile
Others
38%
9%
6%
9%
22%
Nominal GDP
US$ Trillions
10,4
9,3
8,6
8,1
7,3
6,5
6,5
6,8
7,8
7,2
3,6
4,2
4,7
5,3
6,0
5,8
5,9
5,8
6,1
6,4
6,7
7,1
4,1
5,6
5,1
4,6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
70
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on EIU, IMF and Cepal data).
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Unemployment rate
% Population
Latin America
Brazil is expected to lose share inside Latin America’s
market. According to The Economist, the forecast for 2018
is that the country's participation in the region economy falls
from 48% to 38%, mainly due to Mexican and Colombian
rise in the period.
Even with the reduction in the volume of the Nominal GDP
participation in the continent, Brazil will continue to have a
strong status regarding the inflow foreign capital and market
significance inside the region.
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Real GDP
% Variation (end of the year)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Argentina
Mexico
Brazil
Peru
Chile
Uruguay
Colombia
Venezuela
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2012
2013
Argentina
71
2014
Brazil
Chile
2015
Colombia
Mexico
2016
Peru
Uruguay
2017
2018
Venezuela
China
72
text)
China
The Chinese economic scenario has shown a decrease in their real
GDP growth in the last three quarters. Even so, the growth base is
still around 7%, closing the last year at 7.3%.
This result has led China to take economic and fiscal stimulus
measures to "re-leverage" its economy, and has decreased the level
of investment in construction and infrastructure, which has not
generated the expectation of employment, production nor the strong
recovery foreign trade focused on the returned value generation
expected at the beginning of the decade.
Nominal GDP
US$ Trillions
2,8
3,5
4,5
5,1
5,9
7,3
8,4
11,2
9,5 10,4
12,4
13,5
14,5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Consumer prices
Real GDP
% variation yoy.
6,5
14,2
4,6
1,9
2,8
12,7
4,1
2,5
1,2
2,5
2,4
3,2
3,5
3,4
1,4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
73
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on EIU data)
9,6 9,2
10,4
9,3
7,7
7,7
7,3
7,1
6,7
6,3
6,0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Investments / GDP
% Participation
China
The high leverage of Chinese investments in GDP participation
(at around 46% of the total) mainly caused by the falling
interest rates uprising in 2009, and the strength to infrastructural
growth inside the country has proven that this high number
actually presents unsatisfactory results.
46
35
31
28 28 28
Since this policy was taken, large buildings have become
abandoned, companies are loaded with over-stocked
production and population concentration has created a high
density in only a few cities, such as Beijing, Guangzhou and
Shanghai.
25 25 24
22 22
19 18 17
16
Interest rates
5,3
4,3
3,4
2,7
5,0 5,0
4,6
5,2 5,5
4,2 4,4
2,7
1,7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
74
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on EIU and Chinese press News data). Note 1: 7,093 square feets.
New South
China
659(1) thousand
m2 abandoned
The “Phantom
Shopping” is a
sample of negative
results caused by
high investment on
GDP.
12
Chinese demographic pyramid - 2014
China
Age
Another critical situation that the country has presented is a demographic deficit
of 5-19 years youngsters. The government began to worry about a possible
decrease in the labor force for the next decade, which is already affecting
productivity and could reduce the strong growth prompted by China.
Male
Female
With this, the country is beginning to signing a possibility in an "opening“
situation for couples to have another child. Policy adopted in the early 90s inside
the country to contain the Malthusian population explosion.
China – Work force
Millions of people
Population Gap
796
791
799 799 800 799 798
792
796
794
787
783
781
778
Millions
Unemployment rate and productivity
Unemplyment rate
Productivity rate
7,0
15
6,5
13
11
6,0
9
774
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
75
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on EIU and CIA World Factbook data)
5,5
7
5,0
5
India
76
text)
India
The growth rate of India is above the world average, both in the
evolution of real GDP (6.0% in 2014 and expected 6.6% in 2015),
and in the evolution of its Nominal GDP, which is expected to triple
in 10 years size, already appearing among the 10 largest economies
in the world.
The good results of the Indian economy contrast with most other
BRIC economies, mainly because both India and Brazil are not
linked by only a single commodity such as Russia (petroleum).
3,5
3,0
0,9
1,2
1,2
1,4
1,9
1,9
2,1
2,2
Real GDP
% variation yoy.
11,8
10,4
9,4
8,0
7,6
9,3
8,3
10,2
9,8
8,3
7,6 7,3
6,7
6,3 6,2 6,1
6,9
4,0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
77
1,7
1,9
2,6
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Consumer prices
9,7
Nominal GDP
US$ Trillions
Fonte: Research - Deloitte (baseado em dados do EIU)
6,0
4,7
6,6
6,7
6,5
6,5
5,0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP PPP (1) country ranking
US$ Millions
India
(1)
2014
The Indian Growth demonstrates two important scenarios of its emerging economy.
First, India stands out for its importance in the export of services. His expertise in IT,
Information Technology and Telecommunications are essential to the use of
outsourcing inside the US and Europe.
China
USA
India
Japan
Germany
Russia
Brazil
UK
Indonesia
France
(If India appears as the 6th largest economy in service credit exports, and the US 1st, it
owes much to the hand of Indian work, where 66% are expatriates in the country,
and 7% of all CEOs of Silicon Valley are Indians).
The second factor is the easy public access to the Indian food basket, much cheaper
than in neighboring or correlated emerging countries.
Exports of services - Credit
US$ Billions (end of the year)
300
252
250
200
150
100
70
87
104
92
117
175
162
139 146 149
198
222
50
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Exports
78
India position in the service provide global ranking
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
18.160
17.392
7.276
4.688
3.651
3.528
3.059
2.555
2.547
2.523
Big Mac Index(2)
US$ 100
Bic Mac amount that can be bought in
selected countries with the same value.
61
40
23
17
Source: Research – Deloitte (based on The Economist Big Mac Index).
(1)
GDP PPP = GDP purchasing power parity.
(2)
Big Mac Index = s an index calculated on the price of Big Mac in over 100
countries, with the aim of measuring the value of the living cost. Made by The
Economist since 1986.
Russia
79
text)
Russia
The Russian scenario presents a substantial decline in their
accounts and GDP forecast than a few years ago, when they were
seen as one of the most promising BRIC together with Brazil.
Especially if taken into account that the country was the main
supplier of oil and natural gas to Europe.
With a GDP decline scenario for 2014 and 2015, an inflationary
increase of almost 4% for the end of the year and a slow recovery
after this period, Russia starts a backdrop of uncertainty as to
where their economy is leading to; mainly caused by two key
factors: (1) oil prices and (2) War with Ukraine.
Nominal GDP
US$ Trillions
1,9
1,7
1,3
1,0
2,0
2,1
1,9
1,5
1,4
1,2
1,6
1,8
1,9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Consumer prices
Real GDP
% Variation yoy.
13,3
10,9
11,9
8,0
9,1
5,5
8,8
9,0
9,2
8,8
6,1
6,6 6,5
5,6
5,0 4,9
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
80
4,1
-7,2
4,3 3,4
1,3
0,6
0,5
2,5
2,0
-3,5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Evolution of oil imports and shale gas production
in the World (Index 2007 = 100).
Russia
The first factor quoted before is the large recent fall in oil prices,
as Russia is an economy directly correlated with this commodity,
the country has seen the value of the ruble plummet along with
oil prices, as well as an increase in stock and reduction of
international trade material, driven by a large global trade on
shale gas led by the USA.
The country still manages some stability with gas prices, but may
suffer from the "Dutch disease" (1) in the next decade.
Depreciation of the ruble linked
to the oil price drop
(1) Dutch-disease: is an economic term that refers
to the relationship between the export of natural
resources and the decline of the manufacturing
sector, mainly caused by an extreme focus in an
economy based on only one natural resource.
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
0,05
0,04
0,03
0,02
0,01
1000
800
Oil
imports de petróleo
Importação
Shale
gas de
production
Produção
gás de xisto
600
400
200
0
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Oil market in Russia – Thousand barrels per day
10.500
8.500
6.500
4.500
2.500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Oil - US$ per barrel
81
RUB / US$
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on EIU, US EIA, IEA, Bank of Russia and Index Mundi data).
Production
Exports
Stock
Russia
Key regions in the
Russia-Ukraine War
The second major factor was the recent
war involving Russia and Ukraine due to
the annexation of the Crimea by the
Russians.
Separatists
Majority ethnic Russian
regions in favor of
separation
The sanctions imposed by the US and EU,
mainly on the country's major
conglomerates have caused a reduction in
the international market, policy and
institutional relations, leading to a much
larger drop in GDP than expected.
Crimea  Situation to
be defined
Nominal GDP
US$ Trillions
2,0
2,0
2,0
2,1
2,2
2,1
1,9
2,1
2,3
2,3
2,5
2,5
2,7
3,0
1,8
1,6
1,4
2,8
Difference of
US$ 1,2 bn
2012
2013
Russia (Current)
82
2014
2015
Russia (With Crimea and Spearatists annexed)
2016
2017
Russia (IMF forecast before the War)
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on EIU, IMF data). Nominal GDP statistics before the war by the IMF (International Monetary Fund), 2012. Statistics of Russia
with Crimean separatists conducted by Research - Deloitte with the Bank of Russia and the Central Bank of Ukraine data.
Southeast Asia
83
text)
Southeast Asian country share in the region’s GDP
% Participation
Southeast Asia
12%
Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia has
risen as one of the major emerging economies in recent years.
Indonesia
35%
14%
The high number of foreign investment, the high degree of
industrialization, and constant growth of their GDP has led
economists to believe that this region may have an overall
economic boost of the same proportion of the "Asian Tigers"
(South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore itself) had in the
late 90s.
Philippines
Thailand
Singapore
Malaysia
12%
Others
12%
15%
Real GDP
Region Nominal GDP
US$ Trillions
20
15
10
5
1,9
0
1,1
-5
1,3
1,5
2,2
2,3
2,4
2,5
2,7
2,9
3,1
3,3
1,5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Indonesia
Indonésia
Myanmar (Burma)
Tailândia
Thailand
84
Laos
Philippines
Filipinas
Brunei
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on IMF and EIU data).
Malaysia
Malásia
Singapura
Singapore
Camboja
Cambodia
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Global % share of M&A in 2014 by country or
region
Southeast Asia
The low cost of labor especially compared to China, where the average
salary of a worker rose 14% in the last ten years has been a key point that
transformed the countries of Southeast Asia in the newer emerging powers.
With the prices in China becoming more expensive, global markets are
pushing Chinese suppliers to build factories in other emerging countries of
Asia. This has increased the confidence of venture capital funds and the
growth in Private Equity to invest (either in M&A, financial investment, new
business or IPOs) in Southeast Asian countries.
Global confidence in investing in Southeast Asia and other
regions. (Media 1 to 5, with 5 more confident).
Southeast Asia
2014- 3n65
2013- 3,55
2012- 3,41
Southeast Asia – 3,65
Europe – 2,95
Latin America – 2,86
85
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Deloitte’s PE and VC study and Thomson).
USA
UK
France
Russia
Japan
China
Canada
Germany
Southeast Asia
Brazil
Others
28%
31%
7%
1%
3%
4%
7%
4%
5% 5% 5%
Global % share of IPOs in 2014 by country
or region
7%
Southeast Asia - Pacific
Europe
17%
USA
China
Japan
Rest of America
Brazil
20%
Others
2%0%4%
30%
20%
Japan
86
text)
Japan
Nominal GDP
US$ Trillions
The low growth in Japanese GDP is tied directly to the great debt
that the Government has sustained in recent years, just over 2
times the country's GDP (alarming 230% at the end of 2014).
4,4
To control the debt, economists point it that is imperative to take a
considerable increase in government revenue, led mainly by a
significant increase in taxes, which has caused an inflationary
increase and impatience of the population.
4,4
4,8
5,0
5,5
5,9
6,0
4,9
4,6
4,0
4,0
4,2
4,4
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Consumer prices
Real GDP
% Variation yoy.
2,6
1,5
0,7
1,6
1,9
2,0
1,7
0,5
-0,4 -0,2 -0,1
0,3
-1,7
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
87
4,7
1,7
2,2
1,7
-0,4
-1,1
1,6
0,1
1,1
2,0
1,4
1,6
-5,5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Japan
Japanese net debt
% GDP
This increase in government revenues should reach about
60% of GDP, almost double the collected today.
Which could lead Japan in a situation with no apparent way
out, with increasingly needs of government spending,
especially with the pension and retirement of the Japanese
population (which is getting older) but at the same time, the
use of policies to control the tax increase has been criticized
by population in the government of former Prime Minister
Yoshihiko Noda.
167 162 171
100% GDP
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Elderly population and their dependency on
government pensions
Youth
Adults
Elders
Japanese government revenue from fees and
taxes
% GDP
% dependency of elders
(right axis)
100%
50
80%
45
60%
40
40%
35
20%
30
0%
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
88
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on EIU and IMF).
189 193
230 233 238 240 241
210 216 224
60% GDP – necessary to pay the public net debt
31
31
32
30
30
31
31
32
33
34
35
35
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Other countries
89
text)
Other countries
Crisis and conflicts
General outlook
Economic drivers
France
Canada
Terrorist attack in Charlie
Hebdo in Paris increased
hostility against
immigrants.
Depreciation of the
Canadian Dollar due to
largely be correlated
with the fall in oil prices
Cuba
Mexico
Penetrating question
with the murder of
students and the recent
fight against the
narcotics
Possible
economic
reopening with
the US
90
North Korea
Greece
Election of Syriza
questions the
troika and
participation in
Euro.
Guinea
Ebola focus. Still
being controlled
Iran
Egypt
In recent negotiation of a
nuclear program with the
US, after the political
opening during 2014
Venezuela
With the oil crisis
Maduro had to
reduce the price of
the transfer of
gasoline for the
first time in 17
years
Recent cyber attacks
accentuated the unstable
political situation with the
US.
Economics and politics deteriorating
after the uprising against Hosni
Mubarak and Mursi, now the
uprising is against Sissi, considered
more authoritative than their
predecessors.
Nigeria
Bolivia
Evo Morales resumed the
presidency. He searches
access to the sea through a
century dispute with Chile
Syria
Civil war and the rise of
IS has caused major US
and global interventional
issues.
Attack of the Boko
Haram and possible civil
war between North and
South, initialized by
jihadists, has
South Africa
deteriorated the
Zuma, in his second term, has
economy.
focused primarily on investments
in infrastructure.
Australia
Expectation of good
economic growth,
increased domestic
economy, tax cuts and
inflation.
Commodities
91
text)
Commodities
Agriculture
In early 2015 the main products sold by Brazil in the
international market fell.
Wheat declined -10.2%, due to increased global supply
caused by reduced consumption. Cocoa rose by 1.3%
compared to December 2014 and sugar showed a slight
increase of 0.03%. The prices of soybeans and corn
declined again, the average price of corn fell 2.18%
compared to December and 8.6% if compared to January
2014.
Falling soybean prices were 2.9% over December 2014
and over -21% if compared to January 2014.
The coffee fell by 2.4% compared to December 2014 and
had an increase of 43.8% compared to January 2014. On
the global scenario, soy record production in 2014/15 crop
in the United States must be followed by a significant
harvest in Brazil.
There are also fears about China's demand that canceled
US purchases, in addition to decreasing margins for the
production of soybean meal, which should affect the prices
of commodities.
92
Source: Research - Deloitte based on World Bank, EIU and Index Mundi data).
Agriculture commodity prices
Index: Dec 2010=100
120
Sugar
Soy
Coffee
Café
Maize
Wheat
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
Price of the main agriculture commodities
Barley (US$/ton)
Cocoa (US cents/lb)
Arabic Coffee (US cents/lb)
Robusta Coffee (US cents/lb)
Cotton (US cents/lb)
Maize (US$/ton)
Palm oil (US$/ton)
Rapeseed oil (US$/ton)
Rice (US$/ton)
Sorghun (US$/ton)
Soy (US$/ton)
Sugar (US cents/lb)
Sunflower oil (US$/ton)
Tea (US$/kg)
Wheat (US$/ton)
Wool (AUS cents/Kg)
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
246,6
110,6
139,5
94,2
90,4
264,4
856,9
1.079,3
489,5
243,3
556,5
17,7
1.124,0
2,9
321,5
1.063,0
167,8
138,9
200,2
100,4
83,1
205,9
821,3
907,3
423,8
207,2
501,3
17,0
901,9
2,7
302,7
1.084,3
150,0
128,7
186,3
98,5
70,8
182,5
714,1
775,7
401,3
185,0
403,8
16,8
864,9
2,8
261,3
1.097,3
175,0
133,8
202,5
112,5
69,2
191,3
660,1
749,2
391,3
200,0
413,8
18,2
897,8
2,9
272,5
1.108,2
200,0
130,0
200,0
120,0
70,0
200,0
680,0
775,0
400,0
215,0
430,0
19,8
950,0
2,9
310,0
1.119,3
220,0
125,0
185,0
130,0
72,5
215,0
720,0
800,0
415,0
220,0
485,0
20,2
1.000,0
2,9
312,0
1.130,5
Commodities
Metal commodity prices
Minerals
According to the IMF commodity Monitoring Report (Jan/15), iron ore
prices are expected to fall 5.3% in 2015 compared to 6.6% decline last
year.
2013
15.962
13.925
2014
It is also expected a moderate fall in prices of precious metals, due to
negative perception of institutional investors to make investments.
The reduction in demand for commodities from China and India will also
contribute to this decline. The main risk of metal prices remains through
the occurrence of sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy, since the
Asian country accounts for almost half of world metal consumption.
1.740 1.909
1.222 1.201
Aluminum
Aluminio
US$/ton
Gold
Ouro
US$/troy oz
1.967 1.630
136
69
Iron de
Minério
Ferro
ore
Nickel
Níquel
Prata
Silver
US$/troy oz
US$/lb
US$/dry metric ton
Metal commodity
prices prices
Metal commodity
Index (Dec/2010
= 100) = 100)
Index (Dec/2010
130
115
100
85
70
55
40
130
115
100
85
70
55
40
Dez
Dez
2011
2011
Aluminum
ore de Ferro
Copper
Minério deIron
Ferro
Alumínio Alumínio
Cobre
Minério
Dez
Dez
2012
2012
Dez
Fonte: Research - Deloitte (a partir da consolidação de dados do Index Mundi e Economist Intelligence Unit - EIU)
93
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on Index Mundi and IMF).
Dez
2013
2013
Dez
Dez
Níquel
Cobre
Nickel
2014
Gold
Ouro
Níquel
2014
Dez
Ou
D
Commodities
Oil and gas
In a scenario that assumes no further deterioration in the global macroeconomic environment and OPEC refraining from performing new
management of oil supply, in 2015 the prices should keep an average of US$ 53/barrel - 45% lower than in 2014.
The large current oil production capacity points out to an extension in this very gap in low prices for at least a mid-term period, with prices
recovering modestly in 2016. It is estimated that the weakness in oil prices should be extended to other energy markets, particularly natural gas
in Europe and Asia.
The price of European natural gas and Japanese liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to fall 15% and 30% respectively in 2015. A
moderate decline on prices are also expected for natural gas and coal in the United States.
Monthly evolution on oil and gas prices
September/2008 = 100
Oil and gas prices
US$ Dollar
Gás
Natural
Natural
gas
6
140
Oil
Petróleo
120
110
5
100
90
Oil
Natural gas
"Returning Point"
Arab spring in Egypt
120
100
Critical decline
on Oil and gas
prices
Financial crisis
apex
80
4
70
60
3
60
Saudi Arabia
lower even more
the prices
Crimea crisis. Russia blocks
searching for
the supply of gas
competitiveness.
40
50
20
Dez
94
Source: Research - Deloitte (based on World Bank and Index Mundi data).
“War with the
shale-gas”
European crisis and
High oil prices
80
2009
Dez
2010
Dez
2011
Dez
2012
Dez
2013
Dez
2014
Dez
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Economic activity - The Political and Institutional Panorama

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