POPULATION PROJECTIONS Final in Tetum version

Transcrição

PROJEKSAUN BA POPULASAUN TUIR GRUPU SEXU NO TINAN
TIMOR-LESTE
PROJEKSAUN POPULASAUN NIAN
2004-2050
ANALISA HUSI REZULTADU SENSUS NIAN
RELATORIU 1
SENSUS POPULASAUN JERAL TIMOR-LESTE NIAN BA TINAN
2004
DIRESAUN NASIONAL ESTATISTIKA
Fundu Populasaun Nasoens Unidas nian maka Finansa
1
Director, Departementu Estatistika Nasional
Manuel Mendonça
Ekipa Projeksaun Populasaun
Anastasia SEP Vong
Silvino Lopes
Manuel da Silva
Ricardo Neupert
Konselleru Teknikal husi Internasional
Ricardo Neupert
Editor
Domingos S. Freitas
Avaliador sira
Ghazi Mujahid, CST - Thailand
Madeleine Reid
2
Prefaze
Iha kampo atu sukat populasaun nia numeru no sira-nia karakteristika bazika, projeksaun populasaun importante
tebes mós hanesan sensus. Iha nasaun barak, projeksaun populasaun ida maka aktividade analitika dala uluk nian
ne’ebé hala’o wainhira prosesu dadus/informasaun sensus nian kompletu ona.
Nia razaun maka simples tebes; sensus ida dehan ba ita, ita hamutuk nain hirak iha tempu ne’ebá maibé la’os ita
hamutuk nain hira. Sensus ida sura populasaun ne’ebé maka moris iha nasaun ida-nia laran iha tempu ne’ebé maka
fó, dala barak durante loron ida, ne’ebé hanaran loron sensus. Maibé loron tuir mai, la temi tinan tuir mai,
populasaun ne’ebé maka rejistu ona durante loron sensus la vale ona: ema mate no moris loro-loron. Iha kazu TimorLeste nian, populasaun ne’ebé maka rejistu ona husi Sensus Populasaun no Uma nian iha tinan 2005 maka 923,198.
Tuir estimasaun katak to’o tinan 2006 nia klaran, populasaun ita nian hamutuk nain 1,015,187. Projeksaun
populaasun fó ba ita ho estimasaun ba sasukat populasaun futuru nian no tinan no kompozisaun sexu iha kualker
pontu no tempu hafoin loron sensus nian.
Koñesementu ba sasukat no kompozisaun populasaun prezente no futuru nian tuir tinan/idade no sexu importante
tebes ba planu, halo politika no atu hala’o analiza sosiu-ekonomia. Projeksaun populasaun ida fó estimasaun kona-ba
nesesidade no rekursu hirak ne’ebé tenki distribui atu satisfika nesesidade hirak-nune’e. Nu’udár izemplu, projeksaun
populasaun ida fó informasaun kona-ba numeru husi labarik husi tinan 0-4 ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e iha nasaun ida nia
laran, ne’ebé nu’udár dadus/informasaun importante atu planu kampañe imunizasaun ida. Projeksaun ne’e mós fó
sasukat no evolusaun husi populasaun sira iha tinan/idade iskola atu nune’e bele planu ba izizensia ba aula no
profesor sira. Projeksaun populasaun ida ba oras-ne’e no futuru mós informasaun importante ida atu analiza izizensia
ba uma/hela fatin no utilidade hirak. Hatutan liútan, projeksaun populasaun ida mós fó denominador hirak ba
indikador lubuk ida hanesan numeru aktividade ekonomia oioin.
Isu/asuntu boot ida husi projeksaun populasaun maka nia konsistensia, katak, sé los ka la’e numeru hirak-ne’ebé
maka projeita ona koresponde ho realidade ka projeksaun hirak sei aserta ho sasukat populasaun iha futuru.
Ema barak, demographer nain sira mós iha openiaun ne’ebé uit’oan liu kona-ba kapasidade demografia nian atu halo
estimasaun ne’ebé loloos. Pele menus, iha nivel nasional no tinan hirak-ne’ebé atu mai ba sensus ida, projeksaun
populaaun fó rezultadu hirak-ne’ebé aserta wainhira demografia hirak-ne’ebé halo ona bazeia ba baze ne’ebé los ka
populasaun inisiu no iha hipoteze ne’ebé iha razaun kona-ba mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun. Rezultadu hirak
dala ruma la aserta maibé besik realidade atu halo planu ne’ebé adekuadu. Dehan tiha ona katak objektivu husi
projeksaun populasaun hirak maka la’os atu halo predisaun ba realidade maibé atu konstrui. Nu’udár izemplu,
importante atu hatene populasaun ho idade iskola nian aumenta lailais daudaun no ba tinan lima ne’ebé atu mai
numeru husi profesor/a no aula tenki aumenta to’o 4.5% kada tinan ida maski dala ruma ita nia predisaun ba numeru
husi labarik sira bele lato’o ka liu atu hirak. Buat-ne’ebé importante maka atu hatene katak presiza atu halo iskola no
profesor/a sira presiza atu treinu.
Projeksaun ba populasaun iha tempu narik nian ladun aserta. Wainhira ita muda liúba futuru, nia aserta menus. Sé
nune’e, tan’sa demografer sira izizi atu halo projeksaun ba tempu naruk nian? Nusa la projeita deit ba periodu ida ba
tinan 5 to’o 10 nian, to’o, nu’udár izemplu loron sensus tuir mai nian? Razaun loloos maka katak impaktu husi
fertilidade no mortalidade muda tuir nivel kresimentu populasaun nian no sasukat ho estruktura populasaun ne’ebé
maka mosu hafoin dekade rua ka tolu no analiza serteza ba tempu naruk dala ruma dala barak la presiza; importante
liu maka atu identifika tendensia. Nu’udár izemplu, iha Timor-Leste, tuir projeksaun presente/oras-ne’e nian, husi
tinan 2004 ba 2030, populasaun ho tinan/idade ba serbisu nian sei aumenta husi tokon sorin ba tokon 1.1. Dala ruma,
kresimentu maka sei tokon 0.9 deit ka dala ruma ba tokon 1.3. Serteza iha ne’e la importante hanesan atu iha
konsiensia katak izizensia ba serbisu sei aumentu maka’as durante dekade rua tuir mai no esforsa maka’as tenki halo
atu konsumi traballador foun sira ba iha ekonomia. Nune’e, maski ami halo sala, sei diak liu ba sosiedade ida atu uza
projeksaun sira ba planu duke la ho projeksaun hirak-ne’e.
Rezultadu husi projeksaun ne’ebé aprezenta iha dokumentu ne’e analitikamente iha kredibilidade no razaun. Maibé,
sira sei la livre husi eru hirak. Iha kazu ida-ne’e, ida-ne’e importante atu tau iha neon isu/asuntu rua:
Ba projeksaun hirak-ne’e, baze populasaun hetan husi sensus tinan 2004. Nivel no tendensia husi komponente hirak
mós halo ona estimasaun no avaliasaun husi baze ne’ebé hanesan. Maibé analiza no estatistika demografia husi
sensus diskobre eru hirak, liliu halo numerasaun sala ba labarik ki’ik sira. Maioria husi eru kuriji ona uza tekniku
estandar demografia. Sala sira seluk tamba falta informasaun labele hadiak. Hatutan liútan, iha mós posibilidade ba
3
eru iha estimasaun fertilidade no mortalidade. Ida-ne’e la’os surpreza tamba eru kobertura no kontiudu mosu iha
sensus tomak, maski hirak-ne’ebé hala’o iha nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka dezenvolvidu. Sala hirak iha sensus TimorLeste iha tinan 2004 nia laran importante, maski, hare’e ba sira la halo invalidu rezultadu hirak husi sensus no
prevene nia uza nu’udár baze boot ida ba planu dezenvolvimentu no analiza sosiu-demografia.
Isu/asuntu ba dala rua nian maka kata, Timor-Leste esperiensa hela transformasaun sosiu-ekonomika ne’ebé halo
difisil liu atu halo estimasaun ba movimentu futuru husi mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun. Projeksaun hirakne’ebé hato’o analiza ona hare’e fali ba situasaun presente Timor-Leste nian no informasaun ne’ebé maka iha; maibé
espera katak reformasaun ekonomia hirak, programa sosial hirak no akontesementu politika bele produz mundasa
demografia hirak.
Konsiderasaun hirak-ne’e sujere nesesidade atu hala’o sensus ida iha interval badak nia laran, atu hetan informasaun
diak ne’ebé foun. Sensus foun ida sei fasilita evalusaun husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e hanesan mós atu hetan projeksaun
foun hafoin sensus hirak. Hare’e fali ba sentru hirak-ne’ebé la klaru husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e, interval tinan 10
baibain entre sensus sira kleur liu ba iha Timor-Leste. Loron los ne’ebé identifika ona ba sensus foun maka sei iha
tinan 2010.
Iha kualker kazu, projeksaun hirak-ne’ebé aprezenta iha dokumentu ne’e sei sai baze ne’ebé ajuda tebes husi
informasaun ba tinan hirak-ne’ebé atu mai. Projeksaun hirak-ne’e indika loloos persistensia husi estruktura
populasaun foin sa’e ida no tendensia futuru ne’ebé importante, hanesan, kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé konstanta,
liliu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu. Survei Demografia Nasonal (NDS – National Demografic survey) no
UNFPA sira fiar katak relatoriu kona-ba projeksaun populasaun, bazeia ba dadus/informasaun sensus tinan 2004 sei
simu didiak iha Ministeriu no Departementu oioin husi governu Republica Democratica de Timor-Leste hanesan mós
ho ajensia internasional, doador, NGO no utente dadus/informasaun sira seluk.
Manuel Mendonça
Director, Departementu Nasional Estatistika
Ministeriu Planu no Finansa
Republica Democratica de Timor-Leste.
Hernando Agudelo
Reprezentante UNFPA nian
Republica Democratica de Timor-Leste.
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Tabela Konteudu
Pagina
Prefaze husi Director, Departementu Nasional Estatistika ho
Reprezentante UNFPA nian, Timor-Leste……………...…………………………..03
SUMARIU EXEKUTIVU…………………………..………………………………………………………………07
INTRODUSAUN……………………..……………………………………………………………………………..10
METODU…………………………..………………………………………………………………………………..11
ESTIMASAUN BA KOMPONENTE SIRA…………………………...………………………………………….12
Estimasaun ba Mortalidade……………..…………………………………………..12
Estimasaun ba Fertilidade………………..…………………………………………15
Migrasaun Internasional……………………...……………………………………..16
BAZE POPULASAUN…………….………………………………………………………………………………..17
PROJEKSAUN BA KOMPONENTE SIRA……………………………..………………………………………..20
Projeksaun ba Mortalidade…..……………………………………………………...20
Projeksaun ba Fertilidade………...…………………………………………………23
Migrasaun Internasional………...…………………………………………………..27
RESULTADU HIRAK…………….……...………………………………………………………….……………..28
SUMARIU NO KONKLUZAUN HIRAK…………………………………….…………………………………..46
REFERENSIA HIRAK………….…………………………………...……………………………………………..48
5
Lista ba Tabele Hirak
Pagina
TABELA 1:
Timor-Leste: Tabela moris tinan 2002, mane no feto………………………………………..…12
TABELA 2:
Timor-Leste: Numeru tinan/idade fertilidade espesifiku hirak no numeru fertilidade total,
tinan 1003…………………………………………………………………………………….…15
TABELA 3:
Timor-Leste: Populasaun sensus ne’ebé la hadiak no la hadiak diferensa persentajen………...19
TABELA 4:
Timor-Leste: Hipoteze kona-ba esperansa moris husi wainhira moris, 2002 to 2050….……....21
TABELA 5:
Timor-Leste: Hipoteze kona-ba numeru fertilidade total, 2003 ba 2050…….…………………25
TABELA 6:
Timor-Leste: Projeita estrutura fertilidade ba nivel tuir modelu Asia nian…..…….…………..26
TABELA 7:
Timor-Leste: Projeksaun populasaun tuir senariu tolu no indikador demografia hirak ne’ebé
projeita ……………………………………………………………………………………….....28
TABELA 8:
Timor-Leste, indikador ne’ebé hili ona ba kompozisaun sexu no tinan tuir senariu tolu
futuru nian, tinan 2004 ba 2020 no 2030, 2040 no 2050…………………..………....…………41
TABELA 9:
Timor-Leste, mudansa populasaun tuir grupu tinan/idade boot ba senariu futuru tolu,
Tinan 2005 ba tinan 2050…………………………………………………………………….…44
Lista ba Figura Hirak
Pagina
FIGURA 1:
Timor-Leste: Sensus Populasaun tinan 2004……...………………………..………...18
FIGURA 2a—2b:
Timor-Leste: Esperansa moris ne’ebé projeita ona wainhira moris,
Mane sira tuir hipoteze tolu ………………………………...……………..…...……..21/22
FIGURA 3:
Timor-Leste: Projeksaun husi TFR, tinan 2003 ba tinan 2050…………...…………...25
FIGURA 4a—4c:
Timor-Leste, Numeru Baziku Moris nian (CBR) no Numeru Baziku Mate nian
(CDR), tinan 2000 ba tinan 2050, senariu mediu, boor no ki’ik…………………........31/32
FIGURA 5:
Timor-Leste nia populasaun ne’ebé projeita ona tuir senariu tolu,
tinan 2000 ba 2050 ………………………………………………………..………..…32
FIGURA 6a—6j:
Timor-Leste, piramida populasaun, tinan 2005 (senariu mediu………………...…….34/38
FIGURA 7a ho 7b:
Timor-Leste: Piramida populasaun, tinan 2050, senariu aas/boot (shaded)
no senariu mediu (not shaded)………………………………………………...……....39
Apendixu
TABELA A
Timor-Leste, projeksaun populasaun tuir sexu no tinan klik hirak, tinan 2000 ba
tinan 2050—senariu mediu/klaran ………………………....…………….………..…50/78
6
2004-2050
NIVEL NASIONAL
SUMARIU EXEKUTIVU
Projeksaun populasaun maka hanesan exersizu demografiku ida ne’ebé kompostu husi kalkulasaun emperikal bazeia
ba sasukat populasaun nian iha futuru tuir hipotezia spesifiku kona-ba mudansa iha kresimentu populasaun ka nia
komponente hirak (mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun).
Projeksaun populasaun presente nian ba Timor-Leste bazeia ba Sensus tinan 2004 kona-ba Populasaun no Uma.
Projeksaun kobre periodu husi tinan 2004 to’o tinan 2050 no hala’o tuir tinan no sexu. Metodu uza atu hala’o
projeksaun hirak-ne’e maka metodu komponente, metodu ida-ne’e inklui projeksaun independente hirak ba
mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun. ‘Software’ ka programa ne’ebé utiliza maka Projeksaun Rurais no Urbanu
ne’ebé Estadus Unidus nia Departementu ba Sensus maka halo. Kontrariu ba programa projeksaun hotu ne’ebé halo
projeksaun tuir grupu tinan 5 no tuir ‘quinquenium’, Projeksaun Rurais no Urbanu fó rezultadu hirak tuir tinan ida
(single age) (maski sé populasaun tama ona iha grupu tinan lima nian) no ba tinan ida-idak husi periodu sei
konsidera hela.
Estimasaun mortalidade no fertilidade husi inisiu hala’o ho dadus husi Sensus Populasaun no Uma husi tinan 2004
nian hodi uza metodu indireita. Estimasaun kona-ba mortalidade, mortalidade bebe no labarik nian halo hodi uza
metodu ‘Brass-type’ ne’ebé uza dadus kona-ba labarik hirak-ne’ebé maka moris no konsege moris. Estimasaun
esperansa moris nian iha tabela moris no inisiu husi moris hola husi valor mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Tabela
hirak husi Modelu Lorosa’e husi Modelu Moris Rejiaun Coale-Demeny ka ‘The East Model of the Coale-Demeny
Regional Model Life Tables maka uza ba estamasaun hirak-ne’e. Iha kazu fertilidade uza metodu P/F husi rasio/
relasaun indireita.
Baze populasaun ida hari’i ona hodi uza estimasaun mortalidade no fertilidade. Ida-ne’e maka sensus populasaun
ne’ebé hadiak ona ba numeru ne’ebé marka/sura sala no halo relatoriu sala ba tinan. Baibain, populasaun ne’ebé la
sura durante sensus koriji hodi uza rezultadu hirak husi survei enumerasaun posterior ida. Survei ida-ne’e la hala’o
iha Timor-Leste hafoin sensus. Maski-nune’e, populasaun ne’ebé tinan ki’ik liu (husi tinan 0 ba 4 no 5 ba tinan 9),
maka dala barak sai nu’udár grupu hirak-ne’ebé maka afeita husi populasaun ne’ebé la sura durante sensus, hadiak
hodi kompara sensus populasaun ba ida-ne’ebé maka hetan ona hodi aplika numeru fertilidade no mortalidade ba
sensus husi populasaun feto. Jeralmente, populasaun husi tinan 10 ka boot liútan ladun afeita husi populasaun ne’ebé
la sura durante sensus, maibé afeita husi halo relatoriu sala ba tinan. Problema ida-ne’e hamenuz tebes wainhira
populasaun tau iha grupu husi grupu tinan 5 hirak tamba nune’e duni maka kazu iha ne’e.
Iha projeksaun oras-ne’e nian, nu’udár iha exersizu projeksaun sira, hari’i senariu tolu tuir baze husi hipoteze konaba mudansa ba komponente sira. Hipoteze no senariu hirak-ne’e hari’i tuir baze asunsaun (konkluzaun) kona-ba
oin’sa numeru sei la’o iha futuru. Iha-ne’e sira hetan marka nu’udár mediu ka rekomenda, boot no ki’ik. Senariu
mediu inklui asunsaun hirak-ne’ebé maka besik liu kona-ba tendensiu mortalidade no fertilidade iha futuru. Numeru
kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé maka kuaze mosu iha futuru koresponde ba senariu ida-ne’e. Senariu rua sira seluk
dala barak reprezenta valor maximu no minimu hirak katak numeru mortalidade no fertilidade ne’ebé sei sai iha
futuru, hare’e fali ba karakteristika hirak husi populasaun ne’ebé maka estuda hela. Senariu boot inklui hipoteze
ne’ebé asumi katak fertilidade boot liu no numeru mortalidade wainhira senario ki’ik inklui hipoteze hirak-ne’ebé
husu ka hato’o proposta ba numeru ne’ebé maka ki’ik liu.
Tuir Relatoriu Dezenvolvimentu Humanu UNDP nian, nasaun hirak-ne’ebé ho nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu idane’ebé boot iha esperansa moris to’o tinan 77 husi moris, 74 ba mane no 80 ba feto sira. Hipoteze ne’ebé rekomenda
kona-ba mortalidade asumi katak ba tinan 2050, esperansa moris iha maka tinan 72 ba mane no tinan 78 ba feto sira
iha Timor-Leste, katak, nivel mortalidade hirak maka menus tinan 2 hasoru nasaun hirak-ne’ebé nia dezenvolvimentu
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humanu maka’as ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e observa hela. Hipoteze ida-ne’e asume katak ba tinan 2050, esperansa moris
nian maka tinan 68 ba mane sira no tinan 74 ba feto sira, katak, tinan 6 menus ba nasaun hirak-ne’ebé nia
dezenvolvimentu humanu maka’as ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e observa ona. Hipoteze ki’ik asume katak ba tinan 2050,
esperansa moris nian maka tinan 78 ba mane sira no 82 ba feto sira, katak, tinan 2 liu nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka ho
nivel dezenvolvimentu maka’as. Esperansa moris ba entre tinan 2002 no 2050 maka kalkula tuir internposaun linear.
Halo ona projeksaun ba nivel fertilidade in termus numeru fertilidade total uza funsaun lojistika ida. Atu avalia
funsaun ida-ne’e presiza iha valor hat: a) limita boot ne’ebé indika istoria fertilidade iha pasadu (hili ona TFR ida
husi oan nain 8.0 kada feto ida); b) valor intermediu dala uluk ida, ne’ebé iha projeksaun ida-ne’e maka TFR ne’ebé
antisipa ona husi sensus (oan nain 7.0 kada feto ida, ne’ebé koresponde ba tinan 2003); c) valor intermediu segundu,
ne’ebé maka tau ba tinan 2020 no lahanesan tuir hipoteze hirak; no d) limita ki’ik ida ne’ebé indika nivel iha ne’ebé
fertilidade sei estavel iha futuru no sei lahanesan tuir hipoteze.
Hipoteze ne’ebé maka rekomenda asume katak ba tinan 2020, TFR sei koresponde ba numeru oan hirak maka feto ho
tinan 20-24 sira deklara hakarak atu hetan iha Survei Demografia no Saude tinan 2003 (DHS – Demographic Health
Survey); oan nian 4.9 kada feto ida. Ida-ne’e asume limita boot husi oan nain 3.0 kada feto ida. Hipoteze boot ne’e
asume katak ba tinan 2020 TFR sei koresponde aproximamente ba numeru oan hirak maka feto ho tinan 40-44
hakarak atu hetan tuir DHS tinan 2003 nian: oan nain 6.1 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ne’e mós asume limita boot husi
oan nain 3.5 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ki’ik asume katak iha tinan 2020, TFR sei koresponde ba menus oan ida maka
feto hirak ho tinan 20-24 hakarak atu hetan iha DHS tinan 2003 nian: Oan nain 3.9 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ne’e
asume limita boot husi oan nain 2.5 kada feto ida.
Asume ona mós katak kompozisaun tinan ba fertilidade sei muda. Oras-ne’e, feto sira hetan oan iha sira-nia vida
reprodutiva tomak. Redusaun ida fertilidade dala barak signifika katak feto sira ho tinan 30 ba 49 hamenus sira-nia
fertilidade liútan hirak-ne’ebé maka aserta iha sira-nia tinan reprodutiva (tinan 20-29). Maski-nune’e, sé karik
fertilidade menus, fertilidade sei konsentra liu iha feto hirak ho tinan 20 ba tinan 34.
Informasaun ne’ebé maka iha la to’o atu analitikamente hato’o hipoteze ne’ebé maka iha kredibilidade kona-ba migrasaun tamba falta informasaun/dadus no istoria Timor-Leste nian foin lailais ne’e. Movimentu populasaun hirak
foin lailais ne’e tamba instabilidade politika, sosial no ekonomia ne’ebé nasaun ne’e hasoru/esperiensia, nune’e la
konsidera nu’udár migrasaun internasional tuir kondisaun normal hirak. Ida-ne’e maka limitasaun boot atu halo
estimasaun ba migrasaun internasional. Maibé, iha razaun tebes atu asume katak ida-ne’e sei sai nu’udár komponente
boot ida husi mudansa populasaun iha Timor-Leste. Ida-ne’e la dehan katak migrasaun sei la akontese iha dekade
lima ne’ebé atu mai, maibé probabilidade maka nia nivel sei ki’ik no sei iha impaktu ba sasukat no estruktura
populasaun nian. Ida-ne’e asunsaun/konkluzaun ida deit no la signifika katak sei iha migrasaun iha futuru ka
imigrasaun sei la mosu; maibé la iha evidensia atu hato’o hipoteze ida kona-ba volume no tendensia ba migrasaun
internasional. Baibain iha kazu ida-ne’e maka atu asume katak sei ki’ik (uit’oan deit).
Hafoin halo projeksaun ba nivel no estruktura mortalidade no fertilidade, projeksaun populasaun nasional tuir tinan/
idade no sexu tuir senariu tolu. Ba tinan 2010, populasaun total ba Timor-Leste maka sei to’o tokon 1.1 tuir senariu
tolu. Iha tinan 2020, populasaun sei sai tokon 1.5 tuir variasaun mediu no ki’ik no tokon 1.6 tuir variasaun boot.
Populasaun ida ho numeru tokon 3.0 sei mosu iha tinan 2050 iha senariu mediu/klaran. Senariu boot sujere katak
populasaun ida-ne’ebé boot liu tan: tokon 3.9 no senariu ki’ik sujere populasaun ki’ik ida ho numeru tokon 2.5.
Tuir senariu mediu, kresimentu populasaun maka sei 3.0% to’o loron ikus dekade oras-ne’e ninian. Populasaun sei
to’o 2.7% iha tinan 2020 no sei ki’ik liu 2.0% to’o iha periodu projeksaun nian. Nu’udar hare’e ona, numeru ne’ebé
maka projeta ona husi variasaun boot no ki’ik maka respektivamente boot ka ki’ik liu.
Kontrariu ba asunsaun/konkluzaun katak fertilidade sei menus iha futuru, populasaun sei sente kresimentu
importante ida. Ida-ne’e los katak velosidade kresimentu populasaun sei menus iha dekade lima atu mai, maibé
maski fertilidade menus lailais liután, kresimentu populasaun sei maka’as tebes. Razaun loloos ba influensa limitadu
husi fertilidade ida-ne’e bele nota ne’e ba kresimentu populasaun maka momentum populasaun nian ne’ebé
populasaun Timor-Leste esperiensia daudaun. Numeru fertilidade pasadu no oras-ne’e ninian fó potensial ba
kresimentu populasaun ida-ne’ebé lailais no maka’as maski iha redusaun fertilidade. Ko’alia liután, tendensia
fertilidade selu-seluk ne’ebé uza iha senariu tolu ne’ebé inklui iha projeksaun ida-ne’e indika katakdurante dekade
tuir mai, mudansa fertilidade dala ruma iha impaktu ne’ebé maka limitadu ba sasukat populasaun nian.
8
Maibé redusaun fertilidade ida-ne’ebé maka lailais, nu’udár izemplu, suporte husi programa planiamentu familiar sei
bele nota iha tinan 2030 nia laran.
Mudansa hirak-ne’ebé sei hare’e iha estruktura tinan/idade, nu’udár rezultadu ida husi redusaun fertilidade, sujere
bonus demografia katak kuantidade husi populasaun ne’ebé foin sa’e sei menus no kuantidade husi tinan/idade
serbisu sei aumenta. Rekursu importante hirak, ne’ebé sé la’e sei muda fali ba gastu sosial, bele tau fali ba hadiak
infrastruktura nasaun nian. Maski velosidade kresimentu populasaun foin sa’e sei menus, kresimentu ba populasaun
ho tinan/idade serbisu sei aumenta dramatikamente, aplika presaun populasaun maka’as ba sistema sosio-ekonomiku.
Ho liafuan seluk katak izizensia ba serbisu sei aumenta maka’as. Maski ekonomia nasaun nian sei boot tan, no
izizensia ba traballador sei kresimentu ida-ne’ebé hanesan, numeru kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade
serbisu sei liu numeru serbisu ne’ebé maka kria. Só redusaun fertilidade maka’as ida tan maka bele haboot tan
populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu ekonomikamente sei atrai no permiti nasaun atu iha benefisiu husi bonus
demografiku ida hahu hafoin tinan 2020.
Pontu ikus responde ba isu/asuntu importante ne’ebé mosu husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e. Expansaun ba populasaun ho
tinan/idade serbisu ne’ebé konklui ona iha projeksaun sira fó dezafiu boot ida ba ekonomia Timor-Leste nian:
Kriasaun serbisu iha faze ida-ne’ebé bele dada numeru ne’ebé aumentu daudaun husi ema hirak-ne’ebé maka atu ba
merkadu serbisu nian. Kresimentu husi populasuan ho tinan/idade serbisu la’os faktor ida-ne’ebé maka bele atu
modifika tamba buat-ne’e la’os rezultadu husi oras-ne’e, maibé husi dinamika demografika pasadu Timor-Leste nian.
Numeru boot husi ema hirak-ne’ebé maka moris durante tinan 1990 nian laran no sorin balun husi oras-ne’e sei sai
foin-sa’e adultu iha dekade rua tan, nune’e, sei sai parte husi forsa serbisu/forsa de traballu. Maski sé, hahu husi orasne’e, fertilidade hahu menus, kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu nian sei kontinua maka’as nafatin.
Isu/asuntu importante iha kazu ne’e maka atu halo planu ba dalan oioin atu simu hola kresimentu ida nune’e.
Ida-ne’e importante atu realize katak solusaun ba problema ne’e prinsipalmente maka ekonomia no politika, maibé
komponente demografika, sosial no kultural. Funsaun husi demografia maka la’os deit atu fó dadus/informasaun ba
ekonomista no planu nain sira maibé atu kontribui ho nia instrumentu konseptual no metodolojikal ba diskusaun
politika publiku nian kona-ba hamoris kampo serbisu, investimentu no distribusaun rekursu oioin.
9
INTRODUSAUN
Projeksaun populasaun maka hanesan exersizu demografiku ida ne’ebé kompostu husi kalkulasaun emperikal bazeia
ba sasukat populasaun nian iha futuru tuir hipotezia spesifiku kona-ba mudansa iha kresimentu populasaun ka nia
komponente hirak (mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun).
Projeksaun populasaun baibain halo tuir tinan/idade no sexu, no metodolojia ida-ne’ebé uza dalabarak liu maka
metodu komponente, ne’ebé involve projeksaun independente ida husi mortalidade, fertilidade no migrasaun loloos
nian. Prosedura hahu hodi hari’i baze populasaun ida tuir grupu sexu no tinan (dala barak grupu tinan lima). Ida-ne’e
tipikalmente sensus populasaun ida-ne’ebé maka hadiak ona ba populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu
sensus no sala hirak iha kompozisaun tinan/idade no sexu. Grupu ida-ida husi tinan-sexu husi populasaun ne’e
aumenta tuir tempu hodi aplika ba sira mortalidade no numeru migrasaun loloos nian, no hodi aumenta tan membru
foun husi uza numeru fertilidade.
Ida-ne’e importante atu klarifika katak, iha tempu wainhira hakerek dokumentu ne’e, katak projeksaun populasaun
ida la’os exersizu siik ka konta istoria ka formula komplexu sientifika ida atu hare’e futuru. Wainhira hala’o projeksaun ida-nia objektivu maka la’os atu halo predisaun ba numeru populasaun ba tinan ka dekade hirak-ne’ebé maka tu
mai iha futuru, maibe atu fó sasukat ida ba populasaun nian sé asunsaun balun kona-ba nivel mortalidade, fertilidade
no migrasaun, no tendensia ne’ebé maka sei akontese iha futuru.
Iha kazu ida-ne’e, projeksaun populasaun aka exersizu prospetivu ida kompara ba predisaun ida. Buat-ne’ebé
importante maka atu labele siik numeru loloos husi labarik, foin sa’e adultu sira ka ferik/katuas sira ne’ebé sei moris
iha teritoriu ida iha tinan 10 ka 20 atu mai. Buat-ne’ebé relevante maka atu hatene katak sé tendensia hirak iha
komponente demografia ne’ebé maka mosu hanesan ho ida-ne’ebé maka hato’o iha exersizu projeksaun, numeru
eskola sira, aula no profesora/profesor sira tenki aumenta hodi fó presentajen ida atu to’o iha kobertura edukasaun
kompletu iha futuru, ekonomia tenki fó serbisu iha to’o parte ida atu realiza nivel desempregu ne’ebé ki’ik, no tenki
harii kuantidade ida ba uma residensial atu hadook an husi falta uma. Ho liafuan seluk, projeksaun la’os instrumentu
atu siik (predict) futuru maibé atu kontrui futuru (Romaniuc, 1990).
Dinamika populasaun Timor-Leste nian tenki inklui ba faze hotu husi planu dezenvolvimentu. Pasu dala uluk liu ba
serbisu ida-ne’e maka atu prepara projeksaun populasaun hirak-ne’ebé bele hola modelu ba situasaun no fó
informasaun ne’ebé diak kona-ba sa’ida maka hare’e ba sei akontese iha futuru, atu hatene bele antisipa sa’ida, no sé
bele, atu antisipa mundansa demografia importante hirak ba dezenvolvimentu nasional. Maski-ne’e, dokumentu idane’e aprezenta rezultadu husi projeksaun populasaun ba Timor-Leste iha nivel nasional tuir tinan/idade no sexu no ba
periodu 2004 ba 2050. Baze populasaun no mós maioria dadus/informasaun ne’ebé maka uza atu halo estimasaun ba
nivel no estruktura husi komponente sira, mai husi Sensus Populasaun no Uma ikus liu nian ne’ebé hala’o iha tinan
2004.
10
METODU
Medotu uza atu prepara projeksaun populasaun hirak-ne’e maka metodu komponente grupu (cohort method group).
Ida-ne’e maka tekniku ida-ne’ebé avansadu liu, no nune’e, tekniku ne’e uza iha nasaun barak tebes atu halo
projeksaun populasaun sira. Nia prinsipiu maka atu avansa tuir tempu, kresimentu hirak iha tinan lima, grupu tinan
lima husi baze populasaun ida, dala barak liu maka sensus populasaun foin lailais nian (George, et all., 2004).
Nune’e, iha nia forma baziku, metodu ida-ne’e fó projeksaun ba populasaun tuir sexu no grupu tinan/idade lima ba
final husi ‘quinquenium’ ida-idak husi periodu projeksaun. Nu’udár temi ona iha leten ba, sensus 2004 husi TimorLeste hadiak ona tuir konsiderasaun lubuk ida, explika iha parte seluk, atu harii baze populasaun. Populasaun ne’ebé
maka hadiak ne’e hare’e ba to’o tinan 2050.
Projeksaun ida-ne’e hala’o uza programa (software) Projeksaun Rurais-Urbanu (RUP) ne’ebé Departementu Sensus
Estadus Unidas Amerika nian maka dezenvolve. Vantajen boot husi programa ne’e maka katak nia permiti atu hala’o
projeksaun tuir tinan klik husi idade (duke tinan lima nu’udár iha metodu konvensional). Dadus ba grupu tinan
partikular ne’ebé la tama ba grupu konvensional tinan lima nian bele hetan ho karakteristiku ida-ne’e. Buat-ne’e mós
halo nia sai posibel atu tuir grupu populasaun ne’ebé bele ki’ik ka boot liu grupu haktuir malu tamba eventu
demografiku pasadu. Hatutan liútan, projeksaun ida-ne’e hala’o tina-tinan. Hodi uza karakteristika ida-ne’e, iha
posibilidade atu aumenta tan informasaun ba eventu demografiku ba tinan partikular ida hodi la obriga nia impaktu
ba periodu tinan lima ida. Nia mós fó utente sira estimasaun ba tina-tinan hodi la kahur entre dadus/informasaun ba
tinan klaran. Hatama dadus/informasaun ba populasaun no komponente sira bele fó liúhusi tinan klik hirak ka grupu
tinan lima sira. Halo grupu ba tinan hanesan pontu independente, nune’e iha posiblidade atu hatama dadus/
informasaun tinan lima ba pontu balun no dadus/informasaun tinan klik ba seluk. Programa muda dadus/informasaun
hotu ne’ebé maka prepara ona ba tinan klik hirak husi idade molok hala’o projeksaun (Arriaga and associates, 1994).
Fleksibilidade ida-ne’e iha vantajen atu permiti peritu demografia ida atu dezenvolve modelu projeksaun ida ne’ebé
kaer loloos situasaun demografia husi nasaun ida no uza didiak tebes dadus/informasaun ne’ebé ho lala’ok ida iha
ne’ebé informasaun ne’e besik tebes ba nia forma orijinal. Programa fó rezultadu hirak ba medidas demografia oioin
ba kualker tinan ne’ebé maka fó iha periodu projeksaun nian, hanesan, populasaun tuir tinan/idade no sexu (tinan klik
hirak, grupu tinan 5 hirak, no grupu tinan/idade partikular hirak), medidas sumariu, numeru importante sumariu,
tabela moris nian, numeru migrasaun, numeru moris no mate, no selu-seluk tan.
11
ESTIMASAUN BA KOMPONENTE SIRA
Estatistika kona-ba moris no mate ne’ebé sistema rejistrasaun importante Timor-Leste nian fó la kompletu no la iha
posibilidade atu uza sira atu halo estimasaun ba nivel fertilidade no mortalidade. Durante tinan 50 liúba tekniku
demografia siara dezenvolve ona metodu ne’ebé maka diak atu halo estimasaun ba mortalidade no fertilidade husi
dadus/informasaun sensus (United Nations, 1983). Metodu hirak-ne’e maka naran metodu indireitu hirak, ne’ebé
extensivamente utilize iha tipu husi serbisu hirak hanesan-ne’e.
Estimasaun ba mortalidade
Faze importante ida iha exersizu projeksaun ida maka atu dezenvolve tabela moris nian ida ba inisiu husi periodu
projeksaun. Tabela moris ida maka figura organizadu no kompletu ida ba mortalidade populasaun nian. Tabela ne’e
sei kompostu husi apresentasaun tabulariu husi medidas mortalidade hirak-ne’ebé maka iha ligasaun (ka tabela
funsaun hirak) tuir grupu tinan/idade hirak. Funsaun ne’ebé importante liu maka probabilidade atu mate ida tinan
kada tinan, probabilidade atu moris iha kada tinan no esperansa moris nian. Ida tuir mai maka numeru estandar ba
tinan adisional ne’ebé ema ida sei moris, sé tendensia mortalidade oras-ne’e sei kontinua ba parte hotu husi ema ne’e
nia moris. Numeru esperansa moris nian ida-ne’ebé temi liu maka esperansa moris wainhira foin moris (PRB, 2000).
Iha exersizu projeksaun ida, tabela ba inisiu moris nian uza atu avalia sensus populasaun no konsekuensiamente harii
baze populasaun, no importante liu, tabela ne’e maka tenki sai nu’udar pontu inisiu ba projeksaun mortalidade.
Tabela 1 hatudu kona-ba tabela moris nian ne’ebé maka uza daudaun oras-ne’e. Nia koresponde ba tinan 2002. Nota
katak tabela ne’e inklui esplikaaun ida ba artigu ida-idak ka funsaun hirak husi tabela nian. Prosedura ne’ebé uza atu
harii tabela moris ida-ne’e maka nu’udár aprezenta tuir mai:
Tabela 1
Timor-Leste: Tabela moris tinan 2002, mane no feto
Mane
Tinan (x)
0
1
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Luan (n)
M(X,N)
Q(X,N)
I(X)
D(X,N)
L(X,N)
S(X,N)
T(X)
E(X)
A(X,N)
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
+
0.10718
0.00739
0.00200
0.00131
0.00229
0.00332
0.00336
0.00372
0.00460
0.00618
0.00886
0.01327
0.01975
0.02934
0.04478
0.07049
0.11130
0.19869
0.10000
0.02901
0.00993
0.00655
0.01137
0.01645
0.01667
0.01843
0.02275
0.03047
0.04337
0.06434
0.09431
0.13709
0.20209
0.30043
0.43377
.....
100000
90000
87390
86522
85955
84978
83580
82186
80671
78835
76433
73118
68414
61962
53467
42662
29845
16899
10000
2611
868
567
977
1398
1394
1515
1836
2402
3315
4704
6452
8495
10805
12817
12946
16899
93300
353087
434779
431193
427516
421497
414438
407230
398943
388469
374345
354486
326741
289503
241288
181817
116315
85052
.89277 /A/
.97400 /B/
0.99175
0.99147
0.98592
0.98325
0.98261
0.97965
0.97375
0.96364
0.94695
0.92173
0.88603
0.83346
0.75353
0.63974
.42237 /C/
.....
5740000
5646700
5293613
4858833
4427641
4000124
3578627
3164189
2756959
2358016
1969547
1595202
1240717
913976
624473
383185
201368
85052
57.400
62.741
60.575
56.157
51.511
47.072
42.817
38.500
34.175
29.911
25.768
21.817
18.135
14.751
11.680
8.982
6.747
5.033
0.330
1.352
2.500
2.500
2.688
2.574
2.517
2.558
2.596
2.624
2.641
2.639
2.624
2.609
2.589
2.543
2.458
5.033
(kontinua)
12
Tabela 1 (kontinuasaun)
Feto
Tinan (x)
0
1
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
Luan (n)
M(X,N)
Q(X,N)
I(X)
D(X,N)
L(X,N)
S(X,N)
T(X)
E(X)
A(X,N)
1
4
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
+
0.10222
0.00895
0.00226
0.00145
0.00211
0.00284
0.00333
0.00382
0.00451
0.00534
0.00684
0.00964
0.01435
0.02280
0.03747
0.06246
0.10288
0.19417
0.09574
0.03498
0.01125
0.00725
0.01050
0.01408
0.01650
0.01892
0.02230
0.02638
0.03364
0.04715
0.06942
0.10822
0.17208
0.27129
0.40904
.....
100000
90426
87264
86282
85656
84757
83564
82185
80630
78831
76752
74170
70673
65767
58649
48557
35384
20910
9574
3163
982
625
899
1194
1379
1555
1798
2080
2582
3497
4906
7118
10092
13173
14473
20910
93655
353382
433863
429845
426155
420908
414447
407122
398762
389115
377584
362576
341831
312125
269346
210909
140678
107689
.89407 /A/
.97053 /B/
0.99074
0.99142
0.98769
0.98465
0.98233
0.97946
0.97581
0.97037
0.96025
0.94279
0.91310
0.86294
0.78304
0.66701
.43359 /C/
.....
5889992
5796337
5442955
5009091
4579246
4153091
3732183
3317737
2910614
2511852
2122737
1745153
1382578
1040746
728622
459276
248367
107689
58.900
64.100
62.374
58.055
53.461
49.000
44.663
40.369
36.099
31.864
27.657
23.529
19.563
15.825
12.423
9.459
7.019
5.150
0.337
1.368
2.500
2.500
2.635
2.589
2.555
2.555
2.561
2.576
2.609
2.634
2.649
2.652
2.632
2.580
2.496
5.150
\a\ Valor fó maka ba sobrebivente husi grupu 5 husi tempu moris to’o grupu tinan/ida 0-4 = L(0,5)/500000
\b\ Valor ne’ebé fó maka S(0,5) = L(5,5)/L(0,5)
\c\ Valor ne’ebé fó maka S(75+,5) = T(80)/T(75)
Funsaun tabela moris nian:
Numeru mortalidade tinan-espesifiku, maka, numeru mate nian kalkula husi group tinan sira ida-ida (husi x to x+n)
Q(X,N) = Probabilidade husi mate entre tinan aserta x no x+n
I(X) = Numeru husi sobrevivente sira iha tinan x husi moris 100,000
D(X,N) = Numeru husi ema-tinan hirak-ne’ebé maka ema moris entre tinan x no x+n
L(X,N) = Numeru husi ema-tinan hirak-ne’ebé maka ema moris entre tinan x no x+n sira
S(X,N) = Rasiu husi sobrevivente ba ema hirak-nia tinan x ba x+n (hare’e catatan kaki tabela nian a, b no c)
T(X) = Numeru husi ema-tinan hirak-ne’ebé ema moris hafoin tinan x
E(x) = Esperansa moris nian iha tinan x
A(X,N) = Maioria husi ema – tinan hirak-ne’ebé ema hirak moris ba entre tinan x no x+n
Iha nasaun barak, falta estatistiku importante, elaborasaun ba tabela moris ida hahu ho estimasaun indireita husi
mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Survei demografia no sensus tomak inklui kestaun atu halo estimasaun ba
mortalidade wainhira tinan hahu foufoun. Hirak-ne’e kestaun hirak-ne’ebé simples, husu ba sira hotu ne’ebé maka ho
tinan 15 ka liu, refere ba labarik moris hirak maka sira hahoris ona no hira maka mate ona (ka moris nafatin). Sensus
2004 nian inklui kestaun hirak-ne’e. Dadus/informasaun partikular uza atu halibur estatistika kona-ba proporsaun
husi labarik hirak-ne’ebé maka mate ona hafoin moris, tuir sira-nia inan nia tinan/idade. Dadus/informasaun hirakne’e transforma liúhusi metodu indireitu hirak ba numeru mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Mortalidade bebe maka
probabilidade atu mate entre hafoin moris no wainhira halo tinan ba dala ulu. Labarik sira-nia mortalidade maka
probabilidade atu mate entre aserta tinan ida no lima (PRB, 2000).
Metodu indireita hirak-ne’ebé uza beibeik liu maka tekniku ‘Brass-type’ sira. Willian Brass, demografer Ingles ida,
maka prosedura ne’ebé dala uluk ne’ebé dezenvolve atu muda proporsaun labarik hirak-ne’ebé moris maibé mate
ona, ne’ebé feto hirak (tuir grupu tinan nian) hato’o ba estimasaun probabilidade atu mate molok to’o loloos iha tinan
labarik nian (United Nations, 1983). Hafoin, dezenvolve tiha versaun ne’ebé hadiak ona. Variasaun importante rua
maka Tekniku Trussell no tekniku Palloni-Haligman (United Nations, 1988). Variasaun rua uza tabela modelu moris
nian. Tekniku Trussell sira uza Tabela Modelu Moris Rejiaun Coale-Demeny nian (Loromonu, Tasi-mane, Lorosa’e
no Tasi Feto), no tekniku Palloni-Haligman uza Nasoens Unidas nia Tabela Modelu Moris nian (Latin Amerika,
Chili, Asia Tasi Mane nian, Mediu Oriente no Jeral). Iha-ne’e, uza ona programa demografika MORTPAK atu halo
estimasaun mortalidade bebe no labarik nian (United Nations, 1988). Tamba metodu hirak uza tabela modelu moris
nian sira, hare’e ba presiza atu hari’i modelu ida-ne’ebé maka aserta ba modelu mortalidade husi Timor-Leste nian.
13
Diferensa entre mortalidade bebe no labarik maka kriteria importante atu konsidera wainhira hili tabela modelu moris
nian ne’ebé uza atu halo estimasaun ba mortalidade tinan seidauk to’o lima ho tekniku ‘Brass-type’ ida. Seleksaun
ida-ne’e bele bazeia ba karakteristika epidemiolojikal balun husi mortalidade wainhira iha tinan foufoun, konaba
esperiensia mortalidade husi nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka ho demografia, kultura, karakteristika sosial no ekonomia
hanesan ka kona-ba rezultadu husi survei demografia no saudé sira. Sé falta informasaun ida-ne’e, rekomenda duni
atu uza modelu Loromonu husi Tabela Moris Rejional Coale-Demenu ka modelu Jeral husi Tabela Moris Nasoens
Unidas nian. Razaun maka katak modelu hirak-ne’e koresponde ba modelu mortalidade baibain ka jeral hirak.
Evidensia ida-ne’ebé maka sujere ida-ne’e ba Timor-Leste, modelu ne’ebé los liu atu uza ba estimasaun
indireitamente husi mortalidade tinan lima ba kraik maka modelu Lorosa’e husi Tabela Moris Rejiaun CoaleDemeny nian. Kona-ba mortalidade iha tinan foun, modelu ida-ne’e marka ho diferensa ne’ebé boot entre
mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Ho liafuan seluk katak tama iha komponetu ida husi numeru mortalidade tinan
foufoun maka’as tebes wainhira komponente tinan 1-4 komparativamente ki’ik.
Survei Demografia no Saude (DHS) ne’ebé hala’o iha tinan 2003 (Ministeriu Saude...2003) fó evidensia ida-ne’ebé
la’os konklusivu maibé importante liu. Tuir estimasaun direita ba mortalidade husi tinan foufoun ba periodu tinan
1994-2003 (bazeia ba istoria reprodutivu sira, ne’ebé la presiza atu depende ba tabela modelu moris nian)
mortalidade bebe nian maka mate 82 kada moris rihun ida no mate 25 kada labarik rihun ida husi hirak-ne’ebé maka
ho tinan 1-4. Diferensa boot ida-ne’e tipiku Coale-Demenu nia Modelu Loromonu. Tamba razaun oioin lubuk ida,
nivel husi mortalidade tinan lima ba kraik ne’ebé kalkula iha DHS hare’e ba ladun fó valor. Ida-ne’e la’os fatin atu
diskuti isu/asuntu ne’e tamba nia kompleksidade. Maibé, iha posibilidade katak maski iha problema ne’e, diferensa
boot entre mortalidade bebe no labari los tebe-tebes. Ida-ne’e bele akontese ida-ne’ebé maka la iha valor iha impaktu
hanesan ba komponente rua hotu husi mortalidade tinan foufoun.
Atu aumenta, faktu seluk sujere katak modelu ne’ebé iha ligasaun ba mortalidade bebe no labarik koresponde ba
modelu lorosa’e. Espesialmente iha ligasaun maka numeru fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as ne’ebé existi iha rai laran.
Komponente importante ida husi mortalidade bebe, liliu mortalidade hafoin moris (bebe sira-nia mate mosu to’o
loron 28 hafoin moris), maka estatus saude inan sira-nian. Impaktu husi fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as ba saude inan no
bebe nian hatene diak hotu ona. Modelu fertilidade inan-nian iha impaktu ne’ebé maka’as ba mortalidade bebe nian,
ho probabilidade hirak hanesan mate maka’as liu ba labarik hirak ne’ebé maka husi inan hirak-ne’ebé maka joven liu
ka idade liu ona, ka sé intervalu moris nian badak liu, ka sé labarik husi numeru moris ne’ebé boot. Tuir DHS, 59%
husi moris iha Timor-Leste iha risku mortalidade ida ne’ebé maka’as tamba tendensia husi fertilidade ho risku ne’ebé
maka’as entre inan sira (Ministry of Health, et all., 2003). Nune’e, iha mortalidade bebe ida-ne’ebé maka’as tamba
risku importante hirak-ne’ebé maka iha ligasaun ho numeru fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as. Iha parte seluk, mortalidade
labarik nian ladun depende ba estatus saude inan-nian, nune’e, ida-ne’e ladun hetan afeita hosu vulnerabilidade
adisional tamba tendensia risku fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as. Nune’e, kompara ba numeru mortalidade bebe nian,
numeru mortalidade labarik nian ki’ik liu.
Uza metodu ‘Brass-type’ ne’ebé maka temi ona iha leten ho modelu lorosa’e nian, valor estimasaun ba mortalidade
bebe nian maka moris rihun ida iha mate 98. Numeru ba mane maka 102 no ba feto maka 94. Valor hirak-ne’e
koresponde ba tinan 2002. Metodu mós fó estimasaun katak mortalidade bebe nian ba tinan hirak liúba, liliu ba tinan
1996, 1998 no tinan 2000. Numeru respektivu ba kombiasaun sexu rua maka kada moris rihun ida iha mate 126, 110
no 101. Kona-ba mortalidade labarik nian, numeru estimasaun ba tinan 2002, maka bebe ho tinan 1 ba 4 nain 31
maka mate husi moris rihun ida-ne’ebé maka moris. Numeru ba mane maka 34 no 29 ba feto sira. Nu’udár iha kazu
mortalidade bebe nian, dadus/informasaun indika redusaun ida. Ba kombinasaun sexu rua, numeru ba tinan 1996,
1998 no tinan 2000 maka respektivamente nain 47, 38 no 33.
Numeru mortalidade labarik nian ne’ebé importante liu ba objektivu husi faze inisial ida-ne’e ba exersizu projeksaun
maka ida-foin lailais-ne’e maka birak-ne’ebé ba tinan 2002. Sira maka kontribusaun importante atu hari’i tabela
inisial moris nian. Importante mós maka faktu katak mortalidade tinan foufoun menus daudaun ona, maibé
informasaun ida-ne’e relevante liu ba atu avalia tendensia mortalidade futuru.
Hafoin iha tiha estimasaun ba mortalidade bebe no labarik nian, hala’o esforsa ida atu halo estimasaun ba
mortalidade adultu nian husi uza mos metodu indireitu ida. Ida-ne’e bazeia ba informasaun kona-ba sobrebibente
parente (inan aman) sira-nian (ba hare’e Brass and Hill, 1973 and UN, 1983). Iha segunda faze, bele kombina
probabilidade hirak-ne’e ho numeru mortalidade tinan foufoun nian no hetan tabela moris nian ida-ne’ebé kompletu.
14
Sensus tinan 2004 inklui kestaun hirak kona-ba estatus maternal ka paternal sira nia inan ka aman natural sei moris
ka la’e. Maski-nune’e, rezultadu hirak-ne’ebé maka hetan ho metodu ida-ne’e la konsisten. Problema boot ida maka
modelu husi mortalidade adultu nian ne’ebé rezultadu hirak sujere. Difikuldade loloos maka katak metodu bazeia ba
asunsaun lubuk ida ne’ebé katak ba kazu Timor-Leste nian la validu ida (hare’e United Nations, 1983).
Nune’e, tabela moris ne’ebé estimasaun halao ona atu hahu exersizu projeksaun bazeia deit ba rezultadu hirak husi
estimasaun indireitu husi mortalidade bebe no labarik nian. Uza duni metodu no, partikularmente, programa ne’ebé
maka uza (MORTPAK, hare’e Nasoens Unidas tinan 1998) mós fó estimasaun esperansa moris nian wainhira moris
koresponde ba numeru respektivu mortalidade iha tinan foufoun. Esperansa moris nian iha tempu moris maka valor
importante ne’ebé tabele moris nian no indikador ne’ebé maka dala barak liu kalkula no hatuir kona-ba nivel
mortalidade nian fó. Ida-ne’e bele diside nu’udár numeru tinan normal hirak-ne’ebé maka husu atu bebe foun ida atu
moris sé nivel mortalidade no modelu ba tinan hirak-ne’ebé maka iha ba nia moris (PRB, 2000).
Nune’e, tuir numeru mortalidade bebe no labarik nian hirak-ne’ebé maka halo ona estimasaun husi sensu, esperansa
moris iha tinan 2002 maka tinan 57.4 ba mane no tinan 58.9 ba feto sira. Dala ida-tan uza MORTPAK, tabela moris
kompleta koresponde ba esperansa moris hirak-ne’e hetan ona. Hirak-ne’e maka, koretamente, tabela moris nian
ne’ebé aprezenta iha Tabela 1. Nu’udár temi ona iha leten, utiliza duni metodu indireitu ‘Brass-type’ atu halo
estimasaun ba mortalidade tinan foufoun la’os deit halo estimasaun ba tinan 2002 maibé ba tinan 1996, 1998 no tinan
2000. Prosedura hanesan mós uza atu hetan tabela moris husi tinan hirak-ne’ebá. Tabele moris adisional hirak-ne’e la
uza ba projeksaun-ne’e rasik maibé analiza seluk ne’ebé maka iha ligasaun.
Asunsaun katak Tabela Moris nian husi Rejiaun Coale-Demeny mós ne’ebé aserta ba mortalidade adultu nian adopta
mós iha ne’e. Atu halo estimasaun ba esperansa moris nian iha bazeia husi numeru mortalidade tinan foufoun no atu
hetan tabela kompletu ida husu medidas hirak-ne’e, tenki hili modelu tabela moris ida. Baibain wainhira tabela moris
ida sufisientemente duplika modelu mortalidade tinan foufoun, nia mós sei duplika ho didiak modelu husi
mortalidade adultu nian.
Estimasaun ba fertilidade
Estimasaun ba numeru fertilidade total (TFR) no numeru tinan espesifiku ba fertilidade (ASFR) hetan husi sensu
tinan 2004 hodi aplika tekniku indireita ida hanaran P/F ratio (hare’e United Nations, 1983). TFR maka medida
ne’ebé tipikalmente uza atu komunika nivel fertilidade oras-ne’e nian. Ida-ne’e halo estimasaun hodi sura numeru
tinan espesifiku ba fertilidade (ASFR) no produz numeru normal husi labarik ne’ebé maka feto sira sei ko’us/tur ahi
sé sira-nia fertilidade sempre sa’e to’o sira-nia vida reprodutivu hotu. Dadus/informasaun sensus nian utiliza atu
kalkula medidas hirak-ne’e maka numeru husi moris tuir tinan inan nian durante fulan 12 molok sensus hala’o (hetan
husi kestaun ida kona-ba dadus moris nian husi labarik ne’ebé moris ikus liu) no numeru husi labarik hirak-ne’e
maka sira tur ahi ona no moris, no mós tuir tinan/idade feto sira-nian. Rezultadu husi kalkulasaun ida-ne’e aprezenta
iha Tabela 2. Ko’alia ho firmi, TFR ne’eb’e maka halo ona estimansaun ho dalan ida-ne’e koresponde ba tinan lima
husi tinan 1999-2003, maski dala barak tau liúba sensus tinan uluk (tinan 2003).
Tabela 2
Timor-Leste: Numeru tinan/idade fertilidade espesifiku hirak no numer fertilidade total,
tinan 2003
Tinan
ASFR
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
0.0592
0.2830
0.3467
0.3159
0.2300
0.1156
0.0388
TFR
6.95
15
TFR kalkula husi sensus no mós halo estimasaun husi survey demografia foin lailais-ne’e (Ministry of Health, et all.,
2003; UNICEF, 2002), indika katak nivel fertilidade inan iha Timor-Leste maka ida-ne’ebé maka’as liu iha mundu.
Tuir DHS tinan 2003 nian, iha periodu husu periodu 2000 – 2003, feto Timor-Leste baibain iha oan to’o nain 7.77
(Ministry of Health, et all, 2003). Naran estimasaun hirak-ne’e, ida-ne’ebé husi sensus ka ida-ne’ebé husi DHS,
maka’as liu kompara ba hirak-ne’ebé maka observa ona iha kualker nasaun iha Relatoriu Dezenvolvimentu Humanu
UNDP nian, tinan 2005).
Relevante mós atu temi katak diferensa entre TFR hirak-ne’ebé maka sensus tinan 2004 maka halo estimasaun la’os
surpresa. Nia baze hirak maka oioin: eis kobre husi populasaun kompletu no exemplu ida ne’ebé tuir mai, kestaun atu
sukat numeru husi moris lahanesan no to’o metodu hirak atu kalkula numeru sira mós lahanesan. Hatutan liútan,
numeru sensus nian refere ba 1999-2003 no survei ba tinan 2000-2003.
Migrasaun Internasional
Migrasaun internasional maka komponente ida-ne’ebé difisil liu atu halo estimasaun iha projeksaun ida. Razaun ida
maka katak dadus/informasaun sensus nian so bele uza deit atu halo estimasaun imigrasaun internasional maibé la’os
emigrasaun (só la’e so uza mós sensus hirak husi rai seluk nian). Estratejia ida ne’ebé maka uza dala barak liu maka
atu halo estimasaun numeru migrasaun loloos indireitamente ba periodu entre sensus. Nune’e presiza sensus rua no
numeru sobrebivente entre sensus. Teoretikamente, metodu ida-ne’e bele uza iha ne’e ho estimasaun indiretia husi
tabela moris nian sira no sensus Indonesia nian iha tinan 1990. Maibé, nu’udár esplika iha parte uluk ba, tinan 1990
hanesan dekade komflitu, violensia no instabilidade ida, nune’e, metodu indireita hirak bele fó estimasaun numeru
loloos migrasaun nian ne’ebé laloos ka labele uza. Maski sé numeru loloos migrasaun nian los/konsisten, sira sei
seluk no ladun uza ba projeksaun ida. Tamba ursida maka sei esplika, numeru migrasaun pasadu loloos nian
dalabarak hetan extrapolaasun iha premeiru dekade husi periodu projeksaun nian. Sei la realistiku atu asume katak
numeru migrasaun loloos nian iha futuru hanesan ba hirak-ne’ebé maka akontese durante dekade ida-ne’ebé maka la
estavel.
Sensus tinan 2004 iha dadus/informasaun barak atu halo estimasaun ba imigrasaun internasional maibé labele uza
nu’udár baze ida ba projeksaun ne’ebé bele uza tamba emigrasaun labele hetan. Ida-ne’e sei labale atu kalkula ema
nain hirak maka muda tama ona mai rai laran sé imposibel uit’oan atu hatene nain hirak maka sai husi nasaun ida.
Maibé importante atu temi katak dadus/informasaun sensus tinan 2004 kona-ba imigrasaun indika numeru maka’as
maibé maka ida bele iha diskunfia katak instabilidade maka halo buat ne’e no jeralmente ema hirak-ne’ebé deslokadu
durante violensia iha tinan 1990 nian lara maka foin fila mai. Isu/asuntu ida-ne’e sei diskuti iha seksaun seluk.
16
BAZE POPULASAUN
Operasaun ida-ne’ebé importante liu iha exersizu projeksaun maka atu hari’i baze populasaun, ne’ebé dala barak
maka sensus populasaun ne’ebé iku liu ne’ebé hadiak ona tuir populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus
halo relatoriu sala ba tinan. populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus ne’ebé iha impaktu ba sensus sira
maka dala barak halo estimasaun no hadiak uza survei enumerasaun pasterior ida. Metodu ida-ne’e barak komportu
husi hakerek filafali populasaun ne’ebé maka iha ona iha modelu segementu designadu ka area enumerasaun hodi
uza survei ida. Survei ida-ne’e tenki hala’o lalais kedan hafoin survei. Hafoin kompara rezultadu hirak ho poulasaun
ne’ebé maka sensus dokumenta ona iha segementu areia ne’ebé hanesan. (Wilmoth, 2004). Nia diferensa fó
estimasaun ida husi populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus. Tamba falta rekurus oioin, survei
enumerasaun pasterior ida la hala’o iha Timor-Leste hafoin Sensus tinan 2004. Maski nune’e, hadiak ona sensus
hodi uza metodu demografika ida.
Iha kuaze sensus sira hotu, problema kona-ba populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus no halo
relatoriu salo ba tinan ba grupu husi tinan 0-4 kuaze hanesan wainhira ba grupu ho tinan 5-9 sé la halo relatoriu
demais ka halo relatoriu sala bele mosu. Atu hadiak dadus/informasaun ba grupu tinan hirak-ne’e, hala’o prosedura
hirak tuir mai ne’e: Ba grupu tinan 0-4, halo ona konkluzaun katak fertilidade sei nafatin hela durante 5 molok sensus
(1999-2004), ho TFR husi oan nain 7.0 kada feto ida (hare’e seksaun ba estimasaun fertilidade). Sensus ba
populasaun feto projeita kontrariu tuir tinan klik¹. Numeru tinan fertilidade espesifiku koresponde ba tinan 1999-2004
aplika ba projeksaun kontrariu ba feto sira atu bele hetan numeru moris hirak iha tinan lima ida-idak molok sensus.
Buat hirak-ne’e fahe tuir sexu, asume katak rasio sexu ida husi moris maka 105 ba kada feto 100. Hafoin moris hirakne’ebé moris duni to’o dadus sensus nian uza numeru sobrebivente husi tabele moris nian ne’ebé iha (hare’e seksaun
kona-ba estimasaun husi mortalidade). Ho dala ida-ne’e, estimasaun populasaun independente ida ba tinan 0-4 hetan
duni. Rezultadu sujere katak numeru husi mane ho tinan 0-4, ne’ebé sensus dokumenta ona, tenki hasa’e tuir faktor
ida husi 1.131 no numeru feto sira ho tinan 0-4 tenki hasa’e tuir faktor ida husi 1.148.
Prosedura hanesan mós hala’o ba grupu tinan/idade 5 ba 9 maibé iha kazu ida-ne’e uza numeru husi hirak-ne’ebé
konsege moris ne’ebé koresponde ba tinan 1994-1999. Sensus feto sira-nia projeita kontrariu ba tinan 10. Konklui
katak TFR hanesan mós ho tinan lima (oan nain 7.0 kada feto ia). Numeru mane hirak ho tinan 5 – 9 tenki hasa’e ba
faktor ida husi 1.061 no numeru feto hirak-ne’ebé maka ho tinan/idade hanesan tenki hasa’e tuir factor ida husi
1.075. Faktor ajustamentu hat ne’e maka aplika ba sensus populasaun ba tinan 0-4 no 5 – 9.
Iha jeral, under-enumeration ladun afeita populasaun ho tinan 10 no liútán, maibé afeita husi halo relatoriu sala ba
tinan. Problama ida-ne’e orsida hamenus wanihira populasaun tau ba iha kategoria grupu tinan 5 nu’udár kazu iha
ne’e. Maib’e, eru balun sei bele iha nafatin maski dadus/informasaun tau ona iha grupu. Problema maka katak buatne’e difisil tebe-tebes, ka imposibel, tuir realidade, atu determina kontribusaun ketak husi populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la
sura durante periodu sensus ka impaktu husi halo relatoriu ba tinan sala ba populasaun iha grupu tinan/idade
partikular ida no mós atu fahe eru hirak husi fluktuasaun loloos (Hobbs, 2004). Ida-ne’e maka kazu partikular iha
Timor -Leste.
Figura 1 hatudu piramida populasaun husi populasaun Timor-Leste nian tuir Sensus tinan 2004. Piramida populasaun
reprezenta kompozisaun husi populasaun ida nia tinan no sexu. Tabela Horizontal hatudu numeru hirak (ka)
persentajen hirak) husi mane no feto sira iha grupu tinan/idade ida-idak. Perfil husi piramida ida bele dehan sai loloos
kona-ba istoria husi populasaun ida tamba nia refleta modelu fertilidade, mortalidade no migrasaun pasadu no orasne’e ninian, ne’ebé nu’udár rezultadu husi mudansa ekonomia, sosial no politika sira. Piramida husi Timor-Leste iha
forma triangle husi populasaun ida-ne’eb’e ho fertilidade no mortalidade ne’ebé tun daudaun, maibé nia mós iha
iregularidade lubuk ida. Perturbasaun ne’e nu’udár impaktu husi mundansa derepenti iha fertilidade, mortalidade no
1
Programa MOVEPOP husi pakote estatistika PAS uza ba projeksaun kontrariu.
Hare’e Arriaga no asociatu, 1994.
2
Indonesia invada Timor-Leste iha tinan 1975 no tinan 1999. Hatutan liubá respresaun politika, agrikultura subsisten, hahan, no suplai
mediku intensionalmente istraga hotu, no rezulta iha mortalidade ne’ebé mka’as tebes. Tuir estimasaun katak mate ne’ebé maka iha ligasaun ho
konflitu hamutuk 102,800 akontese husi tinan 1975 to’o 1999, o’ho entre 18,600 no liu 84,200 mate tamba hamlaha no moris (Silva no Ball,
2006). Violensia liútan akontese hafaoin referendum ida iha tinan 1999, iha ne’ebé desizaun maioria ida, hamutuk 78% vota ba ukun rasik’ an.
Maibé, iha reasaun ida ne’ebé aat tebes ne’ebé milisia pro-integrasaun sira maka halo no hetan suporte husi forsa armada Indonesia nian, no forsa
ne’e rasik. Estimasaun dehan katak ema nain 1000 to’o 2000 maka mate no 1/3 husi populasaun obriga ba akampamentu refujiadu (UNDP, 2002).
17
migrasaun ne’ebé rezultu husi akontesementu trajiku hirak-ne’ebé nasaun experiensia/hasoru ona durante dekade tolu
ne’ebé liúba². Nu’udár izemplu, populasaun ho tinan 28-29 maka grupu ne’ebé moris hafoin independensia husi
okupasaun Indonesia nian no nia sasukat ne’ebé ki’ik bele sai nu’udár rezultadu husi kanselasaun ida atu iha oan
tamba insiguransa politikal no sosial. Iregularidade iha piramida bele mós tamba rezultadu hirak husi akontesementu
no prosesu istoriku ne’ebé iha ligasaun ba okupasaun Indonesian nian ne’ebé kleur, resistensia no luta ba ukun
rasik’an.
Maski nune’e, importante tebes atu hatudu katak iregularidade balun tamba rezultadu husi halo relatoriu sala ba tinan
ka populasaun hirak-ne'ebé la sura durante periodu sensus. Nu’udár temi ona, difisil tebe-tebes atu fahe modelu
aktual husi eru sira.
Figura 1
Timor-Leste: Sensun populasaun tinan 2004
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
80 +
- 79
- 74
- 69
- 64
- 59
- 54
- 49
- 44
- 39
- 34
- 29
- 24
- 19
- 14
5-9
0-4
80000
Feto sira
Mane sira
60000
40000
20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
Iha tekniku atu hadiak kompozisaun tinan/idade husi populasaun ida atu hadiak problema hirak hanesan halo
relatoriu sala ba tinan (Hare’e Arriaga and associates, 1994). Maibé, hodi aplike metodu hirak-ne’e flaktuasaun
loloos mós lakon. Iha kazu Timor-Leste nian, flaktuasaun hirak-ne’e sei los kompara ba rezultadu husi eru iha halo
relatoriu sala ba tinan. Iha tekniku seluk ne’ebé bazeia iha halibur sensus konsekutivu rua ho fertilidade, mortalidade
no migrasaun inter-censal (Luther and Retherford, 1988). Ba kazu Timor-Leste nian, Sensus tinan 1990 iha³. Maibé,
akontesementu barak ne’ebé akontese entre tinan 1999 no tinan 2002 iha Timor-Leste halo metodu ida-ne’e la los.
Akontesementu hiak-ne’e bele rezultu ona hsu iregularidade no modelu demografia husi periodu entre sensus ne’ebé
ho durasaun ne’ebé lahanesan baibain, kuaze imposibel atu halo estimasaun. Nune’e, desidi atu labele hadiak
populasaun ho tinan 10 no liútan ho konsiderasaun katak ajustamentu hirak bele hamosu eru boot hirak.
Sensus populasaun koresponde ba 11 Jullu 2004. Atu serbisu liútan objektivu planu nian hirak, projeksaun tenki iha
dadus base ne’ebé koresponde ba tinan klaran, 30 Juñu. Atu bele muda populasaun sensus husi loron 11 fulan Jullu
ba loron 30 fulan Juñu, uza Programa MOVEPOP husi pakote komputador PAS (hare’e Arriaga and associates,
1994). Nune’e, populasaun ne’ebé maka projeta ba tinan ida-idak husi periodu projeksaun sei refere ba loron 30
Juñu.
3
Ida ne’e Sensus Populasaun tinan 1990 Indonesia nian ne’ebé hala’o wainhira Timor-Leste sei hanesan Timor-Timur, provinsia
Indonesia nian.
18
Tabela 3 hatudu populasaun ne’ebé maka dokumenta ona, populasaun ne’ebé maka hadiak ona, diferensa persentajen
no baze populasaun nian.
Tabela 3
Timor-Leste: Populasaun sensus ne’ebé la hadiak no hadiak no diferensa persentajen
Tinan
0-4
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 +
Total
Tinan
La hadiak
Feto
Mane
Total
Mane
Hadiak/adjusta
Feto
Total
77,720
66,661
61,422
47,953
37,640
28,366
32,227
24,894
22,513
16,917
16,651
9,910
10,613
5,952
4,922
2,313
3,245
73,024
62,759
57,225
47,321
38,061
28,772
30,183
23,906
23,433
17,403
16,282
9,295
9,903
5,794
4,764
2,083
3,071
150,744
129,420
118,647
95,274
75,701
57,138
62,410
48,800
45,946
34,320
32,933
19,205
20,516
11,746
9,686
4,396
6,316
87,898
70,730
61,422
47,953
37,640
28,366
32,227
24,894
22,513
16,917
16,651
9,910
10,613
5,952
4,922
2,313
3,245
83,834
67,444
57,225
47,321
38,061
28,772
30,183
23,906
23,433
17,403
16,282
9,295
9,903
5,794
4,764
2,083
3,071
171,732
138,174
118,647
95,274
75,701
57,138
62,410
48,800
45,946
34,320
32,933
19,205
20,516
11,746
9,686
4,396
6,316
469,919
453,279
923,198
484,166
468,774
952,940
Diferensa Persentajen
Mane
Feto
Total
Baze populasaun
(loron 1 fulan Jullu tinan 2004)
Mane
Feto
Total
0-4
5-9
10 - 14
15 - 19
20 - 24
25 - 29
30 - 34
35 - 39
40 - 44
45 - 49
50 - 54
55 - 59
60 - 64
65 - 69
70 - 74
75 - 79
80 +
-11.6
-5.8
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-12.9
-6.9
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
-12.2
-6.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
87,811
70,661
61,361
47,906
37,603
28,338
32,195
24,870
22,491
16,900
16,635
9,900
10,602
5,947
4,917
2,310
3,242
83,752
67,378
57,168
47,275
38,023
28,744
30,153
23,883
23,410
17,385
16,266
9,286
9,893
5,789
4,759
2,081
3,068
171,563
138,039
118,529
95,181
75,626
57,082
62,348
48,753
45,901
34,285
32,901
19,186
20,495
11,736
9,676
4,391
6,310
Total
-2.9
-3.3
-3.1
483,689
468,313
952,002
19
PROJEKSAUN BA KOMPONENTE SIRA
Iha projeksaun presente nian, nu’udár iha maioria exersizu projeksaun sira, hari’i senariu tolu tuir baze husi hipoteze
kona-ba mundansa hirak ba komponente sira. Hipotezia no senariu hirak-ne’e hari’i tuir baze asunsaun kona-ba
oin’sa numeru sei hatudu iha futuru. Hanaran sira nu’udár mediu ka rekomenda, boot no ki’ik. Senariu mediu inklui
asunsaun probabilidade hirak kona-ba mortalidade futuru no tendensia fertilidade. Kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé
maka sei akontese iha futuru koresponde ba senariu ne’e. Senariu rua seluk reprezenta valor maximu ka minimum
hirak ne’ebé numeru mortalidade no fertilidade bele sai iha futuru hodi konsidera karakteristiku populasaun ne’ebé
maka estuda hela. Loloos, dala ruma sira bele iha probabilidade ne’ebé ki’ik maka atu mosu maibé kalkula ba sira nia
valor analitika no atu marka limitasaun boot ka ki’ik ida iha ne’ebé kresimentu populasaun virtualmente fiar katak sei
nafatin (George, et all. 2004). Senariu boot inklui hipoteze ne’ebé asume posibilidade ba fertilidade boot no numeru
mortalidade wainhira senariu ki’ik inklui hipoteze hirak-ne’ebá hato’o posibilidade numeru ki’ik hirak.
Nosaun husi kredibilidade analitika maka sentru ba kualker exersizu projeksaun. Asunsaun hirak ka hipoteze ne’ebé
forma senariu tenki entre limita husi kredibilidade ne’ebé sujere husi karakteristika nasaun nian, nia tendensia demografia pasadu, esperiensia husi nasaun seluk nian no koñesementu demografia ne’ebé iha. Asunsaun tenki
kredibilidade ba belun profesional sira no ba utente sira (Romaniuc, 1990).
Iha projeksaun populasaun buat baibain ida atu asume katak nasaun sei la hetan impaktu husi funi ida, disastre
natural ida ka krizi katastropia ekonomia ida. Maski iha posibilidade atu dezenvolve exersizu simulasaun hirak atu
analiza impaktu demografia husi disastre, violensia no krizi ekonomia, projeksaun populasaun konvensional ida
asume katak situasaun oras-ne’e sei la sofre kualker estragus iha futuru. Ida-ne’e la’os atu dehan katak la iha esforsu
hirak-ne’ebé maka halo ona atu permiti mudansa sosial ekonomia iha futuru. Absolutamente ka momos deit, tau hotu
ba konsiderasaun iha konstrusaun husi senariu hirak.
Projesaun ba mortalidade
Dalan baibain atu halo projeksaun ba mortalidade maka hodi halo projeksaun ba esperansa moris. Iha segunda faze,
wainhira projeksaun populasaun mós hala’o daudaun, esperansa moris hirak-ne’ebé maka projeta ona iha ligasaun ba
tabela moris hirak, liliu, numeru sobrebivente, ne’ebé maka aplika ba populasaun.
Nu’udár temi ona, mortalidade hasoru daudaun redusaun durante decade pasadu no presente. Hare’e ba sei kontinua
tun nafatin. Iha hipoteze tolu maka hato’o ona iha kazu ne’e. Nivel mortalidade ne’ebé maka observa foin lailias iha
nasaun hirak-ne’ebé ho nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu ne’ebé maka’as uza nu’udár referensia ida. Tuir Relatoriu
Dezenvolvimentu Humanu UNDP nian ba tinan 2005 (UNDP, 2005), nasaun hirak ho dezenvolvimentu humanu ida
ne’ebé maka’as iha esperansa moris ida-ne’ebé aserta iha moris ba tinan 77, ba mane sira tinan 74 no ba feto sira
tinan 80.
1.
Mediu ka hipoteze ne’ebé maka rekomenda ona. Asume ona katak ba tinan 2050 esperansa moris maka
tinan 72 ba mane sira no 78 ba feto sira iha Timor-este, ida-ne’e atu dehan katak nivel mortalidade hirak sei
menus tinan rua ba nivel ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e observa hela iha nasaun hirak ho dezenvolvimentu humanu
ne’ebé boot.
2.
Hipoteze boot. Asume ona katak ba tinan 2050 esperansa moris maka tinan 68 ba feto sira no 74 ba mane
sira, katak, menus tinan 6 ba nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka observa hela oras-ne’e iha nasaun hirak-ne’ebé ho
nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu boot.
3.
Hipoteze ki’ik. Assume katak ba tinan 2050 esperansa moris maka tinan 76 ba mane sira no tinan 82 ba feto
sira, katak, tinan 2 liu nasaun hirak-ne’ebé maka oras-ne’e ho nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu boot.
20
Interpolasaun linear maka kalkula esperansa moris hirak ba tinan entre 2002 no 2050. Rezultadu husi exersizu sira
maka aprezenta iha Tabela 4 no figura 2b and 2b.
Tabela 4
Timor-Leste: Hipoteze kona-ba esperansa moris husi wainhira moris, 2002 to 2050
Tinan
2002
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Hipoteze
Boot
Mane
Feto
Mediu
Mane
Feto
57.4
58.3
59.8
61.4
62.9
64.4
65.9
67.4
69.0
70.5
72.0
58.9
60.1
62.1
64.1
66.1
68.1
70.0
72.0
74.0
76.0
78.0
57.4
58.1
59.2
60.3
61.4
62.5
63.6
64.7
65.8
66.9
68.0
Ki’ik
Mane
58.9
59.8
61.4
63.0
64.6
66.1
67.7
69.3
70.9
72.4
74.0
57.4
58.6
60.5
62.4
64.4
66.3
68.3
70.2
72.1
74.1
76.0
Figura 2a:
Timor-Leste: Esperansa moris ne’ebé projeita ona wainhira moris,
mane sira tuir hipoteze tolu.
85
80
e(o)
75
70
65
60
55
50
2000
2010
2020
Mediu
2030
Boot
21
Ki'ik
2040
2050
Feto
58.9
60.3
62.8
65.2
67.6
70.0
72.4
74.8
77.2
79.6
82.0
Figura 2b:
Timor-Leste: Esperansa moris ne’ebé projeita ona, feto, tuir
hipoteze tolu.
90
85
80
e(o)
75
70
65
60
55
50
2000
2010
2020
Mediu
2030
Boot
2040
2050
Ki'ik
Oras-ne’e, nivel mortalidade iha Timor-Leste boot tebes no bele hare’e ba optimismu tebes atu konklui katak
tendensia ne’ebé sei akontese maka kresimentu ida ba mais ka menus esperansa moris tinan 16 husi tempu moris iha
tinan 46 nia laran. Maibé, kontributor boot ba mortalidade boot maka mortalidade bebe nian no hare’e ba katak
governu iha intensaun atu hamenus prokupasaun ne’e maka’as tebes. Ministeriu Saude halo ona hakerek ona politika
nasional ida ba imunizasaun ne’ebé ho objektivu atu hadiak kobertura imunizasaun iha Timor-Leste tomak, liliu
liúhusi haklaken saude no edukasaun. Politika nasional ida kona-ba nutrisaun komunidade nian mós prepara daudaun
hela. Targetu nasional ne’ebé maka relevante mós inklui mós iha promosaun (haklaken) no edukasaun ba feto hirakne’ebé isin rua no famila sira, liliu haklaken fó susu bebe sira ba fulan nen dala uluk, hadiak estatus nutrisaun husi
feto isin rua sira, no haboot serbisu kuidadu saude. Objektivu mós atu dezenvolve politika saudé nasional ba labarik
ida ne’ebé inklui implementa aktividade nutrisaun hirak (Republica Democratica de Timor-Leste no Ekipa Nasaun
Nasoens Unidas nian, tinan 2004). Sé estratejia no politika saudé hotu tau ba aksaun loloos iha konfuzaun uit’oan
katak mortalidade bebe no labarik sei menu maka’as tebes. Maibé importansia ba mortalidade ba tinan foufoun
wainhira determina esperansa moris husi tempu moris, tendensia mortalidade ne’ebé hato’o iha hipoteze
intermediariu iha kredibilidade no realistiku.
Nu’udár isplike ona iha leten, hipoteze boot ka ki’ik reprezenta valor maximu no minimu katak mortalidade iha
posibilidade atu simu Timor-Leste. Hare’e ba katak mortalidade, liliu mortalidade bebe, sei para ka esperiensia
redusaun uit’oan deit, hare’e fali ba politika no programa sosial no saudé governu nian sira. Hatutan liútan,
mortalidade bebe no labarik esperiensia ona redusaun ida-ne’ebé klaru durante tinan hirak liúba. Nune’e, fiar katak
esperansa moris nian husi tempu moris sei aumenta menus husi tinan 10 (sexu rua hotu, mane no feto) iha periodu
ida-ne’ebé besik tinan 50. Iha hipoteze boot konklui katak esperansa moris sei aumenta to’o tinan 12 durante dekade
lima ne’ebé tuir mai. Iha parte seluk, klaru katak kresimentu ida iha esperansa moris ne’ebé esperansa moris ne’ebé
maka boot liu hirak-ne’ebé maka observa oras-ne’e iha nasaun hirak ho nivel dezenvolvimentu humanu ne’ebé boot
la realistiku. Tuir hipoteze esperansa moris ki’ik, esperansa moris husi iha tempu moris sei aumenta to’o tinan 20
durante periodu projeksaun. Dezenvolvimentu boot liútan ne’e hare’e ba sei akontese.
22
Kona-ba estruktura tinan husi mortalidade, konklui katak dezenvolvimentu liútan akontese entre labarik sira
kompara ba adultu sira, katak, numeru mortalidade tinan foufoun sei menus lalais liu kompara ba numeru
mortalidade tomak.Ida-ne’e hetan hodi uza tabela moris limita sira, ne’ebé inklui iha RUP. Tabela moris hirak-ne’e,
Departementu Sensus Estadus Unidus nian maka dezenvolve, kaer metin nivel no modelu husi mortalidade husi
nasaun dezenvolvidu ho numeru mortalidade hirak-ne’ebé ki’ik liu (Arriaga and associates, 1994). Tabela hirak-ne’e
tau iha futuru ne’ebé dok, sai husi periodu projeksaun. Iha kazu ida-ne’e, tau sira ba tinan 2100. Tabele hirak-ne’e la
fó impaktu nivel mortalidade ne’ebé konklui iha hipoteze maib’e estruktura mortalidade nu’udar indika ona iha leten.
Projeksaun ba fertilidade
Iha nasaun hirak-ne’ebé nivel fertilidade maka’as/boot no iha evidensia husi redusaun tendensia fertilidae, projeksaun
dala barak bazeia ba asunsaun ne’ebé tendensia ne’e sei kontinua iha futuru. Esperiensia istoriku maka katak
wainhira fertilidade hahu menus, nia sei kontinua nune’e. Kestaun importante ne’ebé husu dalabarak liu iha kazu
hanesan ne’e maka: Iha faze ida-ne’ebé maka fertilidade sei kontinua menu no sa’e to’o nivel ne’ebé? Problema sei
difisil liu iha ne’ebé la iha evidensia husi redusaun. Kestaun importante iha-ne’e maka: Fertilidade sei hahu menus
durante periodu projeksaun ka? No, sé karik kazu maka hanesan ne’e, wainhira maka fertilidade hahu menuz? Iha
kazu ida-ne’e iha teoria lubuk ida ka regras imperiku hirak atu hato’o hipoteze kona-ba tendensia fertilidade hirak.
Nu’udár temi ona iha leten, nivel fertilidade iha Timor-Leste hare’e ba hanesan ida-ne’ebé as liu iha iha mundu no la
iha evidensia ba redusaun ida. Maibé, hare’e ba la realistiku atu konklui katak fertilidade sei la menu iha tempu
badak nia laran, liliu katak iha nasaun hirak-ne’ebé la dezenvolve fertilidade esperiensia daudaun redusaun no barak
maka tun maka’as tebe-tebes.
Iha informasaun rua ne’ebé bele fó naroman ba isu/asuntu ne’e.
Dala uluk, dadus/informasaun kona-ba preferensia fertilidade husi DHS tinan 2003 katak feto barak iha Timor-Leste
maka hakarak atu hamenus sira nia fertilidade. Nu’udár izemplu, signifika husi numeru loloos husi oan entre feto
hirak-ne’ebé hahu sira-nia vida reprodutiva (tinan 15 ba tinan 19) aka 4.8. Numeru ida-ne’e maka 5.8 entre feto hirak
ne’ebé maka vida reprodutivu hotu daudaun (tinan 45 to’o 49). Estandar ba feto hotu nian tinan/idade reprodutiva
maka oan nain 5.6. Entre feto hirak-ne’ebé iha ona oan 4 ne’ebé moris hela maka, 17.4 % lakohi tan ona oan.
Numeru ida-ne’e aumenta to’o 37% entre hirak-ne’ebé iha oan nain hitu ne’ebé moris hela.
Klaru feto sira iha Timor-Leste hato’o sira-nia hakarak maka’as atu iha oan barak. Maibé, preferensia fertilidade
kompara ba fertilidade loloos, nivel ne’ebé hatudu iha preferensia ki’ik kompara ba ne’ebé maka koresponde ba
numeru hirak-ne’ebé maka observa hela. Faktu ida-ne’e maka indikasaun maka’as husi redusaun fertilidade ida iha
futuru. Hare’e ba katak buat-ne’e sei maka’as, pelemenus iha periodu inisiu, maibé nia sujere katak konklui numeru
fertilidade konstanta ba futuru dala ruma la realistiku.
Dala rua, Governu Timor-Leste rekoñese ona importansia husi hamenus numeru moris ne’ebé maka’as tebe-tebes
(barak liu maka espasu entre tur ahi/hahoris) atu fasilita eradikasaun pobreza/halakon ki’ak, hamenus Timor-Leste
nian nivel mortalidade maternal no bebe ne’ebé boot tebes, no hadiak saudé inan no labarik sira-nian. Nune’e,
politika planu familiar dezenvolve no Konsellu Ministru aprova ona iha tinan 2002. Governu halo esforsu hela atu fó/
ofrese liúhusi sistema saude publiku nian, asistensia tekniku no finansial husi komunidade internasional, suplai
regular no distribusaun maka’as ne’ebé maka efektivu variedade kontraseptivu sira atu garantu katak hatan duni ba
opsaun no nesesidade kazal/kabe nain sira no individual iha Timor-Leste. Promosaun/haklaken planu familiar sei
hala’o iha kontextu kona-ba protesaun saude no promosaun husi saude reprodutiva tomak. Sei husu katak promosaun
hirak-nune’e sei neineik maibé desisivamente sei fó aten brani ba kabe nain no individual atu aksesu informasaun
planu familiar, ‘counseling no serbisu sira (Ministry of Health, UNFPA, WHO, w/d).
23
Foti isu/asuntu rua ne’e ba konsiderasaun, konklui katak fertilidade sei tun neineik entre feto sira iha Timor-Leste no
sei to’o iha nivel ki’ik wainhira molok projeksaun atu hotu. Importante atu subliña katak hipoteze alternativa ida,
hanesan determinasaun ba nivel fertilidade hirak ka maski krisimentu ida mós validu. Maski nune’e, diferensa maka
katak hipoteze ba redusaun neineik ida suporte ho evidensia hirak-ne’ebé iha no la’os hipoteze alternativu.
Operasionalmente, projeksaun fertilidade dala barak halo hodi tau loloos funsaun lojistiku ida. Funsaun lojistiku ne’e
iha forma S kontrariu ida ho limitasaun aas ida ne’ebé koresponde ba nivel fertilidade boot uluk; tendensia redusaun
ida ne’ebé reprezenta periodu ba redusaun fertilidade; no limitasaun ki’ik ne’ebé indika periodu wainhira fertilidade
estabiliza fali ona iha nivel ki’ik hirak. Asunsaun katak fertilidade sei tun hafoin kurva lojistiku ida maka konsisten
ho teoria demografia tranzisaun. Teoria ne’e sujere faze evolusaun tolu, husi fertilidade ne’ebé boot no ekuilibrium
mortalidade boot nian ba fertilidade ki’ik, ekuilibrium mortalidade ki’ik, hetan disturbasaun husi faze ida hanaran
tranzisaun. Periodu tranzisaun maka karakteriza ho redusaun fertilidade no mortalidade. Wainhira mortalidade tun
sedu liu fertilidade, no iha velosidade ida-ne’ebé lalais, periodu ida-ne’e simboliza ho kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé
lalais (PRB, 2000). Timor-Leste mosu iha faze inisiu husi periodu trazisaun, ho numeru mortalidade ida-ne’ebé
neineik no numeru fertilidade ne’ebé boot.
Ajustamentu husi funsaun lojistiku ida presiza valor hat:
a) Limitasaun aas ne’ebé indika fertilidade ba tempu naruk pasadu nian. TFR ida husi oan nain 8.0 kada feto ida hili
ona ba hipoteze tomak.
b) Valor intermediu dala uluk ida, ne’ebé iha projeksaun ne’e maka TFR ne’ebé halo estimasaun husi sensus: oan
nain 7.0 kada feto ida. Nia koresponde ba tinan 2003.
c) Valor intermediu ba dala rua nian, ne’ebé tau ba tinan 2020 no diferente tuir hipoteze.
d) Limitasaun badak/ki’ik ida, ne’ebé indika nivel fertilidade sei normalize iha futuru. Ida-ne’e mós diferente tuir
hipoteze.
Nune’e, hipoteze tolu kona-ba fertilidade maka:
1.
Hipoteze mediu assume katak ba tinan 2020, TFR sei koreponde ba numeru husi ona hirak-ne’ebé feto sira
ho tinan 20-24 hakarak tuir DHS tinan 2003: oan nain 4.9 kada feto ida. Hipoteze asume limitasaun ki’ik ida
husi oan nian 3.0 kada feto ida.
2.
Hipoteze aas asume katak ba tinan 2020 TFT sei koresponde ba mais ou menus numeru husi oan hirakne’ebé maka feto sira ho tinan 40-45 hakarak iha DHS tinan 2003: oan nain 6.1 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ne’e
assume limitasaun ki’ik husi oan nain 3.5 kada feto ida.
3.
Hipoteze ki’ik asume katak ba tinan 2020, TFR sei koresponde ba oan hirak-ne’ebé maka feto hirak ho tinan
20-24 hakarak menus husi ida iha DHS tinan 2003: Oan nain 3.9 kada feto ida. Hipoteze ne’e assume l
imitasaun ki’ik ida husi oan nain 2.5 kada feto ida.
Nota katak limitasaun aas hala’o funsaun ki’ik atu hatama lojistika tamba nia la tama iha periodu projeksaun. Nia
valor bele uza liútan atu halo adjustamentu ki’ik balun. Limitasaun ki’ik balun sei relevante liu tamba nia indika nivel
iha ne’ebé fertilidade sei normaliza iha futuru. Maibé, figura hirak-ne’ebé importante liu atu hatama kurva maka
valor intermediu dala uluk no ba dala rua nian no distansia tempu entre sira rua.
24
Tabela 5 no Figura 3 hatudu TFR koresponde ba hipoteze fertilidade ida-ida.
Tabela 5
Timor-Leste: Hipoteze kona-ba numeru fertilidade total, 2003 ba 2050
Tinan
Mediu
Boot
Ki’ik
2003
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
7.00
6.81
6.24
5.58
4.90
4.30
3.84
3.52
3.32
3.19
3.11
7.00
6.91
6.67
6.40
6.10
5.79
5.48
5.18
4.90
4.65
4.43
7.00
6.73
5.85
4.82
3.90
3.26
2.88
2.69
2.59
2.54
2.52
Figura 3:
Timor-Leste: Projeksaun husi TFR, tinan 2003 ba tinan 2050
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
2000
2010
2020
2030
Mediu
Boot
2040
2050
Ki'ik
Dala barak, redusaun fertilidade, nia kompozisaun tinan nian mós hetan mudansa importante. Modelu frikuente maka
feto hirak ho tinan 34 ba 49 hamenus sira-nia fertilidade liu fali hirak-ne’ebé maka aserta iha tinan/idade reprodutiva
(20-34). Maibé, partikularmente difisil atu determina oin’sa fertilidade nia ajenda sei muda espesifikamente wainhira
fertilidade tun wainhira loloos karik seidauk atu tun, nu’udár iha kazu Timor-Leste nian. Estratejia ne’ebé adekuada
liu iha kazu ida-ne’e maka atu uza modelu ajenda fertilidade sira, ne’ebé funsiona hanesan hanesan loloos modelu
tabela moris nian sira.
25
Iha modelu importante tolu : Modelu Afrika, Arabika no Asia nian (CELADE, 1992).
Modelu Asia nian hili iha ne’e tamba modelu ne’e foin lailais maka observa. Wainhira fertilidade hahu atu tun,
ajenda tinan/idade nian gradualmente muda ba tinan ida-ne’ebé maka fertilidade konsentra ba iha tinan/idade
reprodutiva hirak (tinan 20-34). Tabela 6 hatudu numeru fertilidade ba tinan/idade espesifiku Asia nian ne’ebé
koresponde ho TFR ida-ne’ebé fó ona, no koresponde ba numeru absoluta.
Tabela 6
Timor-Leste: Projeita estruktra fertilidade ba nivel tuir modelu Asia nian.
Tinan
Hipoteze mediu
Ba TFR=4.9 (2020)
Ba TFR=3.11 (2050)
Asia
ASFR
Asia
ASFR
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
0.05205
0.21290
0.26885
0.23585
0.15466
0.06612
0.00956
0.05101
0.20864
0.26347
0.23113
0.15157
0.06480
0.00937
0.02448
0.23411
0.33502
0.25566
0.12030
0.02920
0.00124
0.01523
0.14562
0.20838
0.15902
0.07483
0.01816
0.00077
Kalkulasaun
1.00000
4.90
1.00000
3.11
Tinan
Hipoteze boot
Ba TFR=4.43 (2050)
Asia
ASFR
Hipoteze ki’ik
Ba TFR=3.90 (2020) Ba TFR=2.52 (2050)
Asia
ASFR
Asia
ASFR
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
0.04380
0.21061
0.27481
0.24181
0.15603
0.06429
0.00864
0.03881
0.18660
0.24348
0.21424
0.13824
0.05696
0.00766
0.03527
0.21407
0.29032
0.24795
0.14960
0.05617
0.00663
0.02751
0.16697
0.22645
0.19340
0.11669
0.04381
0.00517
0.02617
0.27615
0.36245
0.23163
0.08651
0.01663
0.00046
0.01319
0.13918
0.18267
0.11674
0.04360
0.00838
0.00023
Kalkulasaun
1.00000
4.43
1.00000
3.90
1.00000
2.52
26
Asume iha hipoteze mediu katak iha tinan 2020 kompozisaun fertilidade entre feto sira iha Timor-Leste sei
koresponde ba Ajenda Asia nian ba nivel fertilidade ne’e. Durante prosesu projeksaun, ajenda fertilidade ne’ebé
maka observa iha tina 2003 gradualmente hakbesik ba modelu Asia nian ne’ebé koresponde ba TFR husi oan nain 4.9
ne’ebé asume ba tinan 2020 (ida-ne’e halo automatikamente tuir programa projeksaun RUP nian). Asume mós iha
hipoteze ne’e katak to’o iha loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun iha tinan 2050, kompozisaun fertilidade sei hanesan
ho ajenda Asia nian ba TFR ida husi 3.1, ne’ebé maka sai nu’udár numeru ne’ebé maka asume ba tinan-ne’e. Modelu
tinan 2020 sei gradualente hakbesik ba modelu tinan 2050 durante prosesu projeksaun. Prosedura hanesan mós
adopta ba hipoteze ki’ik no boot. Hetan ona ajenda fertilidade ba nivel ida-idak liúhusi pakote projeksaun demografia
PRODEM ne’ebé CELADE maka dezenvolve (tinan 1992).
Migrasaun Internasional
Nu’udár indika ona iha leten, informasaun ne’ebé maka iha lato’o atu hato’o hipoteze analitikal ne’ebé iha
kredibilidade kona-ba migrasaun internasional tamba buat rua, falta dadus/informasaun no Timor-Leste nia istoria
foin lalais ne’e. Movimentu populasaun foin lalais ne’e nian akontese tamba instabilidade politika, social no
ekonomia ne’ebé Timor-Leste foin hakat liu, no nune’e, la’os indikativu ba migrasaun internasional tuir kondisaun
normal. Ida-ne’e limitasaun boot atu halo estimasaun migrasaun internasional. Maibé, naton atu asume katak buat
ne’e sei dai komponente boot ida ba mudansa populasaun iha Timor-Leste. Ida-ne’e la’os atu dehan katak migrasaun
sei la akontese iha dekade lima ne’ebé atu mai, maibé dala ruma nia nivel sei ki’ik no nune’e sei la iha impaktu ba
sasukat no estruktura populasaun nian. Ida-ne’e hanesan asunsaun ida deit no la signifika katak iha migrasaun iha
futuru ne’ebé atu mai ka imigrasaun sei la mosu; maibé la iha evidensia atu halo proposta ba hipoteze ida kona-ba
volume no tendensia hus migrasaun internasional. Pratiku baibain in kazu ida-ne’e maka atu asume sei la boot.
27
RESULTADU HIRAK
Hafoin adjustamentu hotu ne’ebé maka dehan ona, no haktuir ba projeksaun nivel mortalidade no fertilidade no
estruktura, populasaun nasional tuir tinan/idade sexu no sexu projeita ona tuir senariu tolu ne’e. Senariu ka variasaun
hirak-ne’e bazeia ba hipoteze kona-ba komponente.
Tabela 7 hatudu rezultadu baziku husi projeksaun tuir senariu tolu. Ba tinan 2010, populasaun total Timor-Leste nian
sei liu tokon 1.1 uit’oan tuir senariu tolu. Iha tinan 2020, populasaun sei hamutuk tokon 1.5 tuir variasaun mediu no
ki’ik no tokon 1.6 tuir variasaun boot. Populasaun hamutuk tokon 3 sei mosu iha tinan 2050 iha senariu mediu.
Senariu boot sujere katak populasaun ida-ne’ebé liu: besik tokon 4 no senariu ki’ik sujere populasaun ne’ebé ki’ik;
tokon 2 ho balun.
Tabela 7
Timor-Leste: Projeksaun population tuir senariu tolu no indikador demografia hirakne’ebé projeita.
Tinan
Populasaun
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
952,002
983,369
1,015,187
1,047,632
1,080,742
1,114,534
1,149,028
1,184,193
1,219,992
1,256,441
1,293,556
1,331,354
1,369,829
1,408,952
1,448,691
1,488,968
1,529,817
1,571,373
1,613,653
1,656,545
1,699,747
1,743,239
1,787,349
1,832,170
1,877,594
1,923,430
1,969,587
2,016,259
2,063,564
2,111,443
2,159,886
2,208,792
2,258,214
2,308,291
2,358,994
2,410,389
2,462,381
2,514,913
2,568,077
2,621,867
2,676,336
2,731,417
2,787,087
2,843,435
2,900,455
2,958,150
3,016,469
Numeru
kresimentu
3.24
3.18
3.15
3.11
3.08
3.05
3.02
2.98
2.94
2.91
2.88
2.85
2.82
2.78
2.74
2.71
2.68
2.66
2.62
2.58
2.53
2.50
2.48
2.45
2.41
2.37
2.34
2.32
2.29
2.27
2.24
2.21
2.19
2.17
2.16
2.13
2.11
2.09
2.07
2.06
2.04
2.02
2.00
1.99
1.97
1.95
Moris
41,534
42,332
42,923
43,564
44,247
44,965
45,719
46,375
47,052
47,750
48,470
49,215
49,923
50,614
51,271
51,819
52,560
53,395
54,180
54,789
54,940
55,487
56,312
57,067
57,700
58,085
58,547
59,323
60,032
60,693
61,379
61,832
62,606
63,332
64,062
64,937
65,495
66,273
67,031
67,804
68,674
69,317
70,150
70,981
71,814
72,662
73,418
Numeru
moris
baziku
43.6
43.1
42.3
41.6
40.9
40.3
39.8
39.2
38.6
38.0
37.5
37.0
36.4
35.9
35.4
34.8
34.4
34.0
33.6
33.1
32.3
31.8
31.5
31.2
30.7
30.2
29.7
29.4
29.1
28.7
28.4
28.0
27.7
27.4
27.2
26.9
26.6
26.4
26.1
25.9
25.7
25.4
25.2
25.0
24.8
24.6
24.3
Mate
10,317
10,813
10,806
10,791
10,801
10,828
10,868
10,898
10,932
10,972
11,019
11,069
11,117
11,172
11,235
11,300
11,381
11,463
11,553
11,633
11,692
11,752
11,825
11,912
12,007
12,105
12,212
12,316
12,428
12,540
12,647
12,753
12,842
12,941
13,047
13,162
13,287
13,418
13,557
13,699
13,840
13,989
14,138
14,295
14,459
14,628
14,814
SENARIU MEDIU
Esperansa moris
Numeru
mate
Sexu rua
Mane
Fete
baziku
hotu
10.8
11.0
10.6
10.3
10.0
9.7
9.5
9.2
9.0
8.7
8.5
8.3
8.1
7.9
7.8
7.6
7.4
7.3
7.2
7.0
6.9
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
58.8
59.2
59.5
59.9
60.2
60.6
60.9
61.3
61.7
62.0
62.4
62.7
63.1
63.4
63.8
64.1
64.5
64.8
65.2
65.5
65.9
66.2
66.6
66.9
67.2
67.6
67.9
68.3
68.6
69.0
69.3
69.6
70.0
70.4
70.7
71.1
71.4
71.8
72.1
72.5
72.8
73.2
73.5
73.9
74.2
74.6
74.9
58.0
58.3
58.6
58.9
59.2
59.5
59.8
60.1
60.5
60.8
61.1
61.4
61.7
62.0
62.3
62.6
62.9
63.2
63.5
63.8
64.1
64.4
64.7
65.0
65.3
65.6
65.9
66.2
66.5
66.8
67.1
67.4
67.7
68.1
68.4
68.7
69.0
69.3
69.6
69.9
70.2
70.5
70.8
71.1
71.4
71.7
72.0
59.7
60.1
60.5
60.9
61.3
61.7
62.1
62.5
62.9
63.3
63.7
64.1
64.5
64.9
65.3
65.7
66.1
66.5
66.9
67.3
67.7
68.1
68.5
68.9
69.3
69.6
70.0
70.4
70.8
71.2
71.6
72.0
72.4
72.8
73.2
73.6
74.0
74.4
74.8
75.2
75.6
76.0
76.4
76.8
77.2
77.6
78.0
Mortalidade bebe/infantil
Sexu rua
Mane
Feto
hotu
92.6
90.3
88.0
85.8
83.5
81.4
79.3
77.1
74.9
72.7
70.7
68.7
66.6
64.7
62.8
60.9
59.1
57.3
55.5
53.8
52.1
50.4
48.8
47.2
45.7
44.2
42.8
41.3
39.8
38.4
37.1
35.8
34.4
33.1
31.9
30.6
29.5
28.4
27.3
26.2
25.2
24.3
23.3
22.4
21.5
20.7
19.9
94.9
92.8
90.6
88.4
86.3
84.3
82.3
80.1
77.9
75.8
73.8
71.8
69.9
68.0
66.1
64.3
62.6
60.8
59.0
57.3
55.7
54.1
52.4
50.8
49.2
47.7
46.2
44.7
43.3
41.9
40.5
39.2
37.7
36.3
35.0
33.7
32.4
31.3
30.1
29.0
28.0
26.9
25.9
24.9
24.0
23.1
22.2
Numeru
total
fertilidade
90.2
87.8
85.3
82.9
80.6
78.4
76.1
73.9
71.6
69.5
67.4
65.4
63.3
61.2
59.3
57.4
55.5
53.6
51.8
50.0
48.3
46.6
45.0
43.5
42.0
40.5
39.1
37.6
36.2
34.8
33.5
32.2
31.0
29.7
28.6
27.4
26.4
25.3
24.3
23.3
22.4
21.5
20.6
19.8
19.0
18.2
17.5
6.9
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.7
4.5
4.4
4.3
4.2
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.8
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
(kontinua)
28
Tabela 7 (kontinusaun)
Tinan
Populasaun
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
952,002
983,666
1,016,047
1,049,389
1,083,752
1,119,177
1,155,711
1,193,386
1,232,231
1,272,298
1,313,646
1,356,340
1,400,415
1,445,885
1,492,771
1,541,059
1,590,861
1,642,336
1,695,521
1,750,360
1,806,556
1,864,181
1,923,546
1,984,648
2,047,455
2,111,846
2,177,812
2,245,443
2,314,750
2,385,747
2,458,482
2,532,937
2,609,099
2,687,018
2,766,733
2,848,362
2,931,864
3,017,170
3,104,363
3,193,500
3,284,725
3,378,002
3,473,279
3,570,653
3,670,157
3,771,876
3,875,783
Numeru
kresimentu
3.27
3.24
3.23
3.22
3.22
3.21
3.21
3.20
3.20
3.20
3.20
3.20
3.20
3.19
3.18
3.18
3.18
3.19
3.18
3.16
3.14
3.14
3.13
3.12
3.10
3.08
3.06
3.04
3.02
3.00
2.98
2.96
2.94
2.92
2.91
2.89
2.87
2.85
2.83
2.82
2.80
2.78
2.77
2.75
2.73
2.72
Moris
41,818
42,915
43,915
44,990
46,132
47,336
48,605
49,892
51,237
52,645
54,123
55,678
57,229
58,818
60,432
62,006
63,866
65,796
67,747
69,565
70,884
72,820
74,763
76,706
78,595
80,311
82,195
84,100
86,010
87,942
89,940
91,830
93,790
95,772
97,822
100,063
102,050
104,173
106,333
108,582
111,037
113,222
115,563
117,933
120,363
122,919
125,324
Numeru
moris
baziku
43.9
43.6
43.2
42.9
42.6
42.3
42.1
41.8
41.6
41.4
41.2
41.1
40.9
40.7
40.5
40.2
40.2
40.1
40.0
39.7
39.2
39.1
38.9
38.7
38.4
38.0
37.7
37.5
37.2
36.9
36.6
36.3
36.0
35.6
35.4
35.1
34.8
34.5
34.3
34.0
33.8
33.5
33.3
33.0
32.8
32.6
32.3
Mate
10,409
10,996
11,072
11,148
11,247
11,369
11,503
11,644
11,794
11,953
12,120
12,292
12,464
12,644
12,834
13,027
13,242
13,470
13,704
13,930
14,127
14,326
14,528
14,736
14,952
15,172
15,402
15,632
15,864
16,094
16,319
16,542
16,754
16,970
17,196
17,431
17,679
17,930
18,190
18,452
18,716
18,989
19,242
19,506
19,781
20,062
20,366
SENARIU BOOT
Esperansa moris
Numeru
mate
Sexu rua
Mane
Feto
baziku
hotu
10.9
11.2
10.9
10.6
10.4
10.2
10.0
9.8
9.6
9.4
9.2
9.1
8.9
8.7
8.6
8.5
8.3
8.2
8.1
8.0
7.8
7.7
7.6
7.4
7.3
7.2
7.1
7.0
6.9
6.8
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.3
58.7
58.9
59.2
59.5
59.7
60.0
60.3
60.6
60.8
61.1
61.4
61.6
61.9
62.2
62.4
62.7
63.0
63.2
63.5
63.7
64.0
64.3
64.5
64.8
65.1
65.3
65.6
65.9
66.2
66.4
66.7
66.9
67.2
67.5
67.8
68.0
68.3
68.6
68.8
69.1
69.3
69.6
69.9
70.1
70.4
70.7
70.9
57.9
58.1
58.3
58.6
58.8
59.0
59.2
59.4
59.7
59.9
60.1
60.3
60.5
60.8
61.0
61.2
61.4
61.6
61.8
62.1
62.3
62.5
62.7
63.0
63.2
63.4
63.6
63.8
64.1
64.3
64.5
64.7
64.9
65.2
65.4
65.6
65.8
66.0
66.3
66.5
66.7
66.9
67.1
67.4
67.6
67.8
68.0
59.5
59.8
60.1
60.5
60.8
61.1
61.4
61.7
62.1
62.4
62.7
63.0
63.3
63.7
64.0
64.3
64.6
64.9
65.2
65.5
65.8
66.1
66.4
66.8
67.1
67.4
67.7
68.0
68.4
68.7
69.0
69.3
69.6
70.0
70.3
70.6
70.9
71.2
71.5
71.8
72.1
72.4
72.7
73.1
73.4
73.7
74.0
Sexu rua
Mane
Feto
hotu
93.7
92.0
90.2
88.4
86.7
85.0
83.3
81.6
80.0
78.3
76.7
75.1
73.5
71.9
70.4
68.9
67.4
65.9
64.5
63.1
61.7
60.4
58.9
57.5
56.2
54.8
53.5
52.2
50.9
49.7
48.4
47.2
46.0
44.8
43.7
42.5
41.4
40.4
39.3
38.3
37.3
36.3
35.3
34.4
33.4
32.5
31.6
95.9
94.2
92.6
91.0
89.4
87.9
86.4
84.9
83.3
81.8
80.4
78.9
77.4
76.0
74.6
73.2
71.8
70.4
69.0
67.6
66.3
65.0
63.6
62.3
61.0
59.8
58.5
57.3
56.0
54.8
53.6
52.4
51.2
50.1
48.9
47.8
46.7
45.6
44.5
43.5
42.4
41.4
40.4
39.4
38.4
37.5
36.5
Numeru
total
fertilidade
91.4
89.6
87.6
85.7
83.8
81.9
80.1
78.3
76.4
74.6
72.9
71.2
69.4
67.7
66.0
64.4
62.8
61.3
59.8
58.3
56.9
55.5
54.0
52.5
51.1
49.7
48.3
46.9
45.6
44.3
43.0
41.8
40.5
39.3
38.1
37.0
35.9
34.9
33.8
32.9
31.9
31.0
30.0
29.0
28.1
27.2
26.4
6.9
6.9
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.7
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.4
6.3
6.3
6.2
6.2
6.1
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.6
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.4
(kontinua)
29
Tinan
Populasaun
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
952,002
983,125
1,014,439
1,046,030
1,077,911
1,110,071
1,142,502
1,175,089
1,207,714
1,240,347
1,272,955
1,305,498
1,338,023
1,370,561
1,403,032
1,435,343
1,467,465
1,499,716
1,532,340
1,565,213
1,598,046
1,630,791
1,663,863
1,697,465
1,731,474
1,765,694
1,800,002
1,834,592
1,869,601
1,904,941
1,940,600
1,976,448
2,012,425
2,048,583
2,084,867
2,121,310
2,157,806
2,194,268
2,230,755
2,267,264
2,303,827
2,340,401
2,376,963
2,413,577
2,450,270
2,487,073
2,523,984
Numeru
kresimentu
3.22
3.14
3.07
3.00
2.94
2.88
2.81
2.74
2.67
2.60
2.52
2.46
2.40
2.34
2.28
2.21
2.17
2.15
2.12
2.08
2.03
2.01
2.00
1.98
1.96
1.92
1.90
1.89
1.87
1.86
1.83
1.80
1.78
1.76
1.73
1.71
1.68
1.65
1.62
1.60
1.58
1.55
1.53
1.51
1.49
1.47
Moris
41,285
41,819
41,984
42,172
42,375
42,582
42,794
42,783
42,751
42,691
42,600
42,471
42,467
42,399
42,262
42,023
41,852
42,276
42,637
42,827
42,592
42,676
43,272
43,784
44,161
44,293
44,440
44,975
45,413
45,785
46,194
46,300
46,581
46,791
46,976
47,263
47,253
47,369
47,477
47,595
47,773
47,811
47,967
48,155
48,376
48,631
48,869
Numeru
moris
baziku
43.4
42.5
41.4
40.3
39.3
38.4
37.5
36.4
35.4
34.4
33.5
32.5
31.7
30.9
30.1
29.3
28.5
28.2
27.8
27.4
26.7
26.2
26.0
25.8
25.5
25.1
24.7
24.5
24.3
24.0
23.8
23.4
23.2
22.8
22.5
22.3
21.9
21.6
21.3
21.0
20.7
20.4
20.2
20.0
19.7
19.6
19.4
Mate
10,223
10,635
10,540
10,434
10,351
10,284
10,232
10,171
10,114
10,062
10,015
9,971
9,915
9,875
9,844
9,820
9,810
9,818
9,845
9,871
9,882
9,895
9,910
9,942
9,984
10,030
10,086
10,149
10,223
10,295
10,365
10,434
10,494
10,563
10,637
10,717
10,807
10,890
10,981
11,074
11,168
11,269
11,386
11,508
11,636
11,766
11,910
SENARIU KI’IK
Esperansa moris
Numeru
mate
Sexu rua
Mane
Feto
baziku
hotu
10.7
10.8
10.4
10.0
9.6
9.3
9.0
8.7
8.4
8.1
7.9
7.6
7.4
7.2
7.0
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.3
6.2
6.1
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.3
5.2
5.2
5.1
5.1
5.0
5.0
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.8
4.7
4.7
59.0
59.4
59.9
60.3
60.8
61.2
61.6
62.1
62.5
62.9
63.4
63.8
64.2
64.7
65.1
65.5
66.0
66.4
66.8
67.3
67.7
68.1
68.6
69.0
69.4
69.9
70.3
70.7
71.2
71.6
72.0
72.4
72.9
73.3
73.7
74.2
74.6
75.0
75.5
75.9
76.3
76.8
77.2
77.6
78.1
78.5
58.2
58.6
59.0
59.4
59.8
60.1
60.5
60.9
61.3
61.7
62.0
62.4
62.8
63.2
63.6
64.0
64.4
64.8
65.2
65.6
65.9
66.3
66.7
67.1
67.5
67.9
68.3
68.7
69.1
69.5
69.8
70.2
70.6
71.0
71.4
71.7
72.1
72.5
72.9
73.3
73.7
74.1
74.5
74.9
75.2
75.6
59.8
60.3
60.8
61.3
61.8
62.3
62.8
63.3
63.8
64.3
64.7
65.2
65.7
66.2
66.7
67.1
67.6
68.1
68.6
69.1
69.5
70.0
70.5
71.0
71.5
71.9
72.4
72.9
73.4
73.9
74.3
74.8
75.3
75.8
76.2
76.7
77.2
77.7
78.2
78.6
79.1
79.6
80.1
80.6
81.0
81.5
Sexu rua
Mane
Feto
hotu
91.4
88.6
85.7
82.9
80.2
77.5
75.0
72.4
69.8
67.4
65.1
62.8
60.3
58.0
55.7
53.6
51.5
49.4
47.4
45.4
43.6
41.8
39.9
38.1
36.4
34.7
33.2
31.6
30.2
28.8
27.5
26.2
24.9
23.7
22.6
21.5
20.5
19.4
18.5
17.5
16.6
15.8
15.0
14.3
13.6
12.9
93.4
90.6
87.9
85.2
82.6
80.0
77.6
75.0
72.6
70.2
67.8
65.6
63.1
60.7
58.4
56.2
54.1
52.0
49.9
48.0
46.1
44.3
42.3
40.4
38.6
36.9
35.3
33.7
32.2
30.7
29.3
28.0
26.6
25.4
24.2
23.0
21.9
20.8
19.7
18.7
17.7
16.7
15.9
15.1
14.3
13.6
89.4
86.6
83.5
80.5
77.7
74.9
72.3
69.6
67.0
64.5
62.1
59.8
57.4
55.1
52.9
50.8
48.8
46.7
44.7
42.7
40.9
39.1
37.3
35.6
34.0
32.5
31.0
29.5
28.1
26.8
25.5
24.3
23.1
22.0
20.9
19.9
19.0
18.1
17.2
16.4
15.6
14.8
14.1
13.5
12.8
12.2
Numeru
total
fertilidade
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.9
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.0
4.8
4.6
4.5
4.3
4.1
3.9
3.8
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
Tabela 7 mós hatutu numeru annual husi kresimentu populasaun durante periodu projeksaun. Tuir senariu mediu,
kresimentu populasaun sei liu 3.% to’o loron ikus husi dekade oras-ne’e. Nia sei to’o 2.7% to’o inisiu tinan 2020 no
sei iha 2.% rua nia okos to’o loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun. Nu’udár espera ona katak numeru ne’ebé maka
projeita iha variasaun boo no ki’ik maka sei boot no ki’ik liu, respektivamente.
30
Figura 4a, 4b no 4c hatudu evolusaun futuru husi numeru baziku moris no mate hirak tuir senariu tolu. Nota katak
distansia entre kurva rua koresponde ba kresimentu populasaun. Hatutan liútan, Figura 5 hatudu evolusaun husi
sasukat populasaun.
Nivel
Figura 4a:
Timor-Leste, Numeru Baziku Moris nian (CBR) no Numeru Baziku Mate
nian (CDR), tinan 2000 ba tinan 2050, senariu mediu
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
2044
2049
Tinan hirak
CBR
CDR
Nivel
Figura 4b:
Timor-Leste, Numeru Moris Baziku (CBR) no Numeru Mate Baziku
(CDR), 2000 ba 2050, senariu boot
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
Tinan hirak
CBR
CDR
31
2034
2039
2044
2049
Nivel
Figura 4c:
Timor-Leste, Numeru Moris Baziku (CBR) no Numeru Mate Baziku
(CDR), tinan 2000 ba 2050, senariu ki’ik
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
2004
2009
2014
2019
2024
2029
2034
2039
2044
2049
Tinan hirak
CBR
CDR
Populasaun
Figura 5:
Timor-Leste nia populasaun ne’ebé projeita ona tuir senariu tolu,
tinan 2000 ba 2050.
3,800,000
3,300,000
2,800,000
2,300,000
1,800,000
1,300,000
800,000
2000
2005
2010
2015
M ediu
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Boot YearsKi'ik
Iha isu/asuntu importante rua ne’ebé presiza atu diskuti. Dala uluk, maski iha redusaun ba fertilidade iha senariu tolu,
kresimentu populasaun iha Timor-Leste sei kontinua maka’as tebes durante dekade hirak tuir mai. Nota, nu’udár
izemplu, katak numeru moris aumenta iha senariu tolu; maski iha ida-ne’ebé ki’ik, iha ne’ebé numeru fertilidade
hirak asume sei tun substansialmente. Isu/asuntu ba dala rua nian maka defaktu, maski iha velosidade redusaun
fertilidade oioin to’o tinan 2010 nia klaran. Diferensiasaun loloos hahu hafoin ida-ne’e. Nu’udár izemplu diferensa
entre populasaun ne’ebé projeita ona ba tinan 2015 iha senariu ki’ik no boot maka hamutuk 50,842 ka 3.9%.
32
Razaun loloos ba modelu uluk maka insidente hanaran momentum populasaun nian. Ida-ne’e maka tendensia husi
populasaun ida atu kontinua atu aumenta maski sé fertilidade redusaun maka’as ida. Rezultadu fertilidade boot sira
iha populasaun ida ho proporsaun boot ida iha tinan/idade ne’ebé foun sa’e tebes no moris hirak kontinua maka’as liu
mate wainhira foin sa’e hirak-ne’e hakat liu sira-nia tinan/idade atu hetan oan. (Rowland, 2003; Weeks, 2002).
Maioria demografer no hirak-ne’ebé maka hakerek lei/politika konsidera katak redusaun fertilidade maka’as no nivel
fertilidade favorabel ba sosiedade tamba sasukat familia ne’ebé ki’ik sei hadiak famila nia moris diak no haneik
kresimentu populasaun sei iha favor ba kresimentu ekonomia (Hobcraft, 2003; Birdsall, Kelly and Sinding, 2001;
Mason, 2001). Nune’e, redusaun fertilidade konsidera ona, jeralmente, insidente pozitivu ida. Maibe tamba
momentum populasaun, impaktu imidiata husi redusaun fertilidade ba kresimentu populasaun bele limita. Impaktu
boot ida bele presiza dekade ida ka rua. Nu’udár izemplu, konsidera numeru fertilidade no populasaun ba tinan 2010
tuir senariu boot no ki’ik (Table 7). Ida pasadu nian asume redusaun fertilidade ida-ne’ebé neineik: TFR ida husi oan
nain 6.7 kada feto ida no populasaun suksesivu ida hamutuk ema nain 1,155,711. Redusaun ne’ebé maka loloos
nu’udár redusaun rapida: TFR ida ba oan nain 5.9 kada feto ida no populasaun suksesivu ida husi ema nian 1,142,502
ba tinan ida-ne’e mós. Maski iha diferensa iha TFT, diferensa iha numeru populasaun maka ema nain 13,209 deit,
ne’ebé signifika katak variasaun populasaun boot maka 1.2% pursentu deit no boot liu variasaun populasaun boot.
Hafoin tinan 2020 diferensa entre senariu tolu sei sai boot. Ida-ne’e klaru iha figura 5. Tuir senariu boot, populasaun
iha tinan 2050 sei hamutuk ema nain 3,875,783, wainhira rezultadu husi senariu ki’ik maka ema nain 2,523, 984.
Diferensa maka ema nian 1,351, 799; populasaun ba dala uluk nian maka 53.7% boot liu populasaun ba dala rua nian.
Sasukat husi populasaun ne’ebé maka projeita ona ne’e bele halo diferensa intermus halo estimulasaun vs. limita
dezenvolvimentu sosial no ekonomia iha nasaun. Numeru kresimentu populasaun iha senariu tolu ne’e hetan
impaktu husi momentum populasaun husi periodu molo projeksaun maibé momentum ne’e hetan suporte maka’as
husi numeru fertilidade boot husi variasaun boot ka substansialmente moderadu husi numeru fertilidade ki’ik husi
variasaun ki’ik. Impaktu husi tendensia no nivel fertilidade husi dekade ne’ebé maka reprezenta sei sai mós hafoin
tinan 20 ka 30.
Demografia maka siensia mesak ne’ebé halo projeksaun ba periodu tinan 50 ka liután. Pratiku ida-ne’e la’os arogantu
ka la hare’e hetan metodu limitasaun husi demografia. Razaun maka katak impaktu husi mudansa sira iha
komponente, liliu fertilidade, akontese pelemenus hafoin dekade rua ka tolu. Programa planiamentu familiar idane’ebé efektivu ho objektivu ambisiozu ida ba tinan 2010 ka 2015 bele iha impaktu nivel ki’ik ida-ne’ebé lalais entre
feto sira no moris diak husi familia nian. Maibé, nia impaktu ba kresimentu populasauniha nivel nasional sei presiza
dekade rua, liliu, wainhira feto sira moris iha tempu wainhira planiamentu familiar hahu, hahu sira-nia movis
reprodutivu. Ida-ne’e dala ruma sei presiza liútan tempu sé redusaun fertilidade hetan interupsaun husi momentum
populasaun ida-ne’ebé boot.
Importante mós hanesan numeru no kresimentu maka mudansa iha estruktura populasaun nian. Ida-ne’e
simplesmente distribusaun husi populasaun tuir tinan no sexu. Dadus/informasaun ida-ne’e importante tebes ba
deskrisaun no analiza husi tipu seluk husi dadus/informasaun demografia, maibé prinsipalmente tamba izizensia
sosial no ekonomia iha rai laran signifikamente hetan impaktu husi numeru relativu iha tinan/idade ida-idak. Tipu
husi planu barak, liliu planu husi institusaun komunidade no serbisu hirak presiza dadus kona-ba kompozisaun tinan
no sexu. Tinan maka variabel importante ida kuandu sukat populasaun potensial eskola, populasaun vota potensial,
forsa ba serbisu/traballu potensial, no selu-seluk tan. (Shryock no Swanson, 2004).
Dalan momos atu hatudu estruktura populasaun ida maka husi piramida populasaun ida. Figura 6a ba 6j hatudu
piramida populasaun hirak-ne’ebé rezulta husi senariu mediu ba tinan lima da-idak entre tinan 2005 no 2050. Sira
reprezenta numeru absoluta hirak. Piramida deskobre loloos expansaun husi populasaun hodi hare’e katak areia
piramida reprezenta numeru total. Nota katak durante periodu projeksaun piramida hirak mantein sira nia forma
trianglu; sira aumenta substansialmente maibé sira-nia perfil hanesan nafatin. Razaun maka, dala uluk, nivel boot
husi fertilidade iha inisiu husi periodu projeksaun no ba dala rua nian, asume katak redusaun numeru fertilidade
komparativamente neineik. Redusaun ne’ebé lailais liu no maka’as sei rezultu fali ba tendensia ida ba kuadradu ida
husi piramida, katak, sira sei muda ona husi forma trianglu ba kuadradu ida.
33
Figura 6a:
Timor Leste, Piramida populasaun, tinan 2005 (senariu mediu)
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 6b:
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
34
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 6c:
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 6d:
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
35
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 6e:
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 6f:
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
36
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 6g:
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 6h:
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
37
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 6i:
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 6j:
80+
70-74
Mane
Feto
60-64
50-54
40-44
30-34
20-24
10-14
0- 4
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
38
50000
100000
150000
200000
Figura 7a kompara piramida populasaun ba tinan 2050, korespode ba senariu mediu no boot, wainhira Figura 7b
kompara senariu mediu ho senariu ki’ik. Piramida koresponde ba senariu boot iha baze ne’ebé boot liu kompara ba
ida-ne’ebé maka rezultu husi senariu mediu. Razaun maka redusaun fertilidade ne’ebé neineik asume ona iha ida
pasadu nian.
Piramida ne’ebé koresponde ba senariu ki’ik iha baze ida-ne’ebé ki’ik kompara ba piramida senariu mediu no,
hafoin, nia iha tendensia atu sai husi forma triangula adopta perfil ida ne’ebé kuadradu. Nu’udár sujere ona iha leten,
mudansa forma ida-ne’e maka rezultadu husi redusaun fertilidade lalais nian ne’ebé asume iha senariu ki’ik.
Figura 7a
Timor-Leste: Piramida populasaun, tinan 2050, senariu aas/boot
(shaded) no senariu mediu (la hamahun)
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5- 9
0- 4
Feto hirak
Mane hirak
310000
210000
110000
10000
90000
190000
290000
Figura 7b
Timor-Leste: Piramida populasaun hirak, tinan 2050, senariu ki’ik
(hamahun) no senariu mediu (la hamahun)
80+
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5- 9
0- 4
310000
Feto sira
Mane sira
210000
110000
10000
39
90000
190000
290000
Senariu demografia tolu reprezenta fertilidade tranzisaun ne’ebé la hanesan ne’ebé rezultu la’os deit sasukat
populasaun ne’ebé diferente maibé diferente mós iha estruktura tinan nian. Husi pontu devista ekonomia nian,
estruktura koresponde ba senariu ki’ik dala ruma favorabel ba kresimentu sosiu-ekonomia no redusaun pobreza.
Importante atu klarifika katak reklama ne’ebé maka halo iha ne’e la’os ida-ne’e katak prosesu demografia la la’o
mesak wanhira produz dezenvolvimentu, kresimentu ekonomia no redusaun pobreza. La’os mós redusaun fertilidade
no redusaun ida iha velosidade kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé lori direitamente ka indireitamente ba populasau nia
moris diak. Peskijador ne’ebé maka estuda ona isu/asuntu ne’ebé kuaze universalmente hakerek nu’udár prosesu
komplexu no faze oioin ida (hare’e nu’udár izemplu, Williamson, 2001). Prosesu ne’e hari’i tutan fali iha nasaun ida
nia ekonomia no estruktura sosial, no dala barak kontrola iha tempu tomak tuir nasaun nia politika sosiu-ekonomia
pasadu no presente. Maibé proporsaun importante husi dezenvolvimentu sosiu-ekonomia no rezultadu husi redusaun
pobreza/ki’ak husi pozisaun nasaun ida-nia populasaun no velosidade liúhusi tranzisaun demografia.
Xavi ida atu komprende relasaun ida-ne’e maka konseitu husi demografia bonus/exta ka demografia
dividente.Wainhira fertilidade tun, proporsaun boot ida husi populasaun muda tama ba no liúhusi tinan/idade serbisu
nian wainhira proporsaun husi labarik sira esperiensia redusaun kontanta ida. Janela oportunidade ida atu aumenta
osan no investementu ba kresimentu ekonomia nu’udár rezultadu iha husi relativamente rekursu hira deit maka
presiza ba investementu hirak iha edukasaun no saude. Hatutan liútan, presaun populasaun menus ba sistema
edukasaun no saude bele fasilita dezenvolvimentu kualitativu no kuantitativu no, nune’e, akumulasaun importante
ida husi kapital humanu (Leete and Schoch, 2003; Mason, 2003). Dezenvolvimentu hirak-ne’e sei estimula no
manutein dezenvolvimentu ekonomia no, wainhira bonus hotu, maka wainhira numeru husi ema idade sira aumenta
substansialmente, nasaun sei iha rekursu atu aguenta ho mudansa demografia foun ne’e. Konsidera katak 1/3 husi
kresimentu ekonomia ne’ebé maka nasaun Asia Lorosa’e balun hetan durante 1/4 ikus husi kapitulu pasadu bele
atribui ba utilizasaun adekuada ida husi demografia bonus (Williamson no Higgins, 1997)4 .
Ida-ne’e mós importante atu nota katak piramida nia tutun koresponde ba senariu tolu husi tinan 2050 kuaze hanesan.
Portasaun husi populasaun (ho tinan 45 no liu) moris ona iha tinan 2004, wainhira projeksaun hahu no subjete ona ba
deit numeru mortalidade dirente. Maksi asunsaun hirak-kona-ba nivel mortalidade diferente entre senariu tolu,
rezultadu husi populasaun tolu hanesan deit. Ida-ne’e tamba iha impaktu ne’ebé limita ba sasukat husi populasaun
adultu iha periodu ida-ne’ebé relativamente badak. Fertilidade maka determinante ida-ne’ebé maka determina liu
numeru populasaun iha tempu badak nia laran.
Tabela 8 hatudu grupu indikador hirak husu estruktura sexu no tinan husi populasaun futuru ba Timor -Leste.
Indikador dala uluk ne’ebé aprezenta iha Tabela 8 maka persentajen sexu, ne’ebé nu’udár presentajen enre
populasaun feto no manes hirak-ne’ebé hato’o nu’udár mane sira kada feto nain 100 ida. Variabel ida-ne’e la
esperiensia mundansa subtansial durante periodu projeksaun, maibé iha tendensia ki’ik ida ba numeru ida husi 100
ida, ne’ebé signifika katak ekuilibrium entre sexu sira. Razaun loloos ba tendensia ida ne’e maka variasaun ne’ebé
asume tuir modelu sexu husi modelu husi mortalidade.
Demografiac bonus, maibé, bele sai demografia tax ida. Benefisiu ekonomia husi bonus depende ba malu
iha kondisaun ekonomia favorable ida, politika hirak-ne’ebé adekuada, no mós sosial no politika estabilidade.
Espansaun rapida husi populasaun ho idade serbisu maka pozitivu só wainhira oportunidade aumenta ho velosidade
naton atu aserta suplai forsa traballu, kresimentu iha produtividade manutein nafatin no edukasaun boot ba beibeik no
iha mudansa hirak. Iha estabilizasaun ida ne’ebé falta kondisaun hirak-ne’e, situasaun ida hare’e ba atu mosu,
karakteriza ho desempregu ne’ebé aumenta, kresimentu disturbasaun pobreza/ki’ak no politika no sosial (Leete and
Schoch, 2003).
4
40
Tabela 8
Timor-Leste, indikador ne’ebé hili ona ba kopozisaun sexu no tinan tuir senariu tolu futuru
nian, tinan 2004 ba 2020 no 2030, 2040 no 2050.
SENARIU MEDIU
INDIKADOR HIRAK BA KOMPOZISAUN IDADE-SEXU
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Rasiu sexu
Tinan/idade klaran/mediu
Persentajen husi tinan 15 mai kraik
Persentajen husi populasaun hirak-ne’eb’e iha idade serbisu
Persentajen husi ema katuas/ferik sira
Persentajen husi feto hirak iha idade reproductiva
Rasiu dependensia total
Rasiu dependensia labarik nian
Rasiu tinan dependensia
Indexu idade nian
Rasiu suporte inan no aman nian
103.3 103.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 102.9 102.9
17.4 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.3
17.4 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.7
17.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5
45.0 45.1 45.1 45.0 45.0 44.9
44.8 44.8 44.7 44.5 44.3 43.9
43.5 43.0 42.6 42.6 42.2
51.7 51.6 51.6 51.6 51.6 51.7 51.8 52.0 52.2 52.4 52.6 52.9 53.3 53.7 54.0 53.9 54.3
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
44.6 44.5 44.5 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.6 44.5 44.6 44.8 45.1 45.5 46.0 46.3 46.3 46.6
93.6 93.8 93.9 93.9 93.7 93.4 92.9 92.3 91.7 90.9 90.0 88.9 87.6 86.3 85.3 85.4 84.1
87.1 87.4 87.4 87.4 87.2 86.9 86.5 86.1 85.6 85.0 84.1 83.0 81.6 80.1 79.0 79.0 77.7
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.4
12.3 11.9 11.6 11.3 11.1 11.0 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.9 12.0 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 12.8
8.7
7.8
7.0
6.4
6.0
5.7
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.9
4.8
4.9
5.0
5.2
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2040 2050
Rasiu sexu
102.9 102.9 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.6 102.3 102.0
18.7 18.9 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 22.5 24.6
41.8 41.4 41.0 40.7 40.3 39.9 39.5 39.1 38.8 38.4 35.0 32.4
Persentajen husi populasaun hirak-ne’eb’e iha idade serbisu 54.7 55.1 55.4 55.8 56.1 56.4 56.7 57.0 57.3 57.6 60.4 62.4
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.8
3.9
3.9
4.0
4.6
5.1
46.9 47.1 47.4 47.7 48.1 48.5 48.9 49.3 49.6 50.0 51.8 51.7
82.8 81.6 80.4 79.3 78.3 77.3 76.4 75.5 74.6 73.6 65.6 60.2
76.4 75.2 74.0 72.9 71.8 70.7 69.7 68.7 67.7 66.6 57.9 52.0
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
6.9
7.6
8.2
Indexu idade nian
13.1 13.8 13.5 14.1 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.8 18.5 23.9
5.4
5.8
5.7
5.9
5.9
5.9
5.9
6.0
6.2
6.6
8.8 10.0
SENARIU BOOT
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Rasiu sexu
Indexu idade nian
103.3 103.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.0 103.0 103.0 103.0 102.9
17.4 17.3 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6
45.0 45.1 45.1 45.2 45.2 45.2 45.2 45.2 45.3 45.3 45.2 45.0 44.8 44.6 44.5 44.7 44.6
51.7 51.6 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.5 51.6 51.6 51.7 51.8 51.9 52.1 52.2 52.3 52.0 52.1
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.3
44.6 44.5 44.5 44.5 44.5 44.5 44.4 44.2 44.1 44.0 44.0 44.2 44.5 44.7 44.9 44.6 44.7
93.6 93.9 94.1 94.3 94.3 94.3 94.1 93.9 93.7 93.5 93.2 92.7 92.0 91.4 91.2 92.3 91.8
87.1 87.4 87.6 87.7 87.8 87.8 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.6 87.3 86.8 86.1 85.3 85.0 86.0 85.5
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.5
6.4
6.2
6.0
5.9
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.3
12.3 11.9 11.6 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.3 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.4 11.5
8.7
7.8
7.0
6.3
5.9
5.6
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
4.8
4.7
4.7
4.7
4.8
4.9
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2040 2050
Rasiu sexu
102.9 102.9 102.9 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.8 102.7 102.7 102.4 102.1
17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.8 19.9
44.5 44.4 44.3 44.2 44.0 43.9 43.8 43.7 43.6 43.5 41.8 39.7
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.5
3.5
3.6
3.6
44.8 44.9 44.9 45.1 45.2 45.4 45.6 45.8 46.0 46.2 47.5 48.5
91.3 90.9 90.5 90.2 89.9 89.7 89.5 89.3 88.9 88.5 83.2 76.6
85.1 84.7 84.3 84.0 83.6 83.4 83.1 82.8 82.4 82.0 76.6 70.2
6.3
6.2
6.2
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.4
Indexu idade nian
11.6 11.8 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.1 12.2 12.4 14.2
5.1
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.6
5.9
7.6
8.1
(kontinua)
41
SENARIU KI'IK
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Rasiu sexu
Indexu idade nian
103.3 103.3 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.2 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.1 103.0 103.0 103.0 102.9 102.9 102.9
17.4 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.9 18.0 18.2 18.4 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.5
45.0 45.1 45.0 44.9 44.8 44.7 44.5 44.3 44.1 43.7 43.3 42.7 42.0 41.3 40.6 40.3 39.6
51.7 51.6 51.6 51.7 51.8 51.9 52.2 52.4 52.7 53.1 53.5 54.1 54.6 55.3 55.8 56.0 56.7
3.4
3.3
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.6
3.6
3.7
44.6 44.5 44.6 44.7 44.8 44.8 44.9 45.0 45.0 45.2 45.5 46.0 46.6 47.3 47.9 48.1 48.6
93.6 93.8 93.8 93.6 93.2 92.6 91.7 90.7 89.6 88.3 86.8 85.0 83.0 80.9 79.1 78.4 76.3
87.1 87.3 87.3 87.0 86.6 86.0 85.3 84.5 83.5 82.4 80.9 79.0 76.9 74.7 72.7 71.9 69.8
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.6
6.6
6.4
6.3
6.1
6.0
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.4
6.5
6.5
12.3 12.0 11.6 11.3 11.2 11.1 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.4
8.7
7.8
7.0
6.4
6.0
5.7
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.5
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2040 2050
Rasiu sexu
102.8 102.8 102.8 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.7 102.6 102.6 102.6 102.3 102.0
19.8 20.2 20.5 20.8 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.1 22.4 22.7 25.8 28.5
38.9 38.2 37.5 36.9 36.3 35.7 35.1 34.6 34.1 33.6 30.4 27.6
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
4.1
4.2
4.4
4.5
4.5
5.6
6.7
49.1 49.6 50.1 50.6 51.1 51.7 52.2 52.6 53.0 53.4 54.1 52.6
74.2 72.3 70.5 68.9 67.4 66.0 64.8 63.7 62.7 61.7 56.2 52.2
67.7 65.8 64.0 62.3 60.7 59.2 57.8 56.6 55.5 54.4 47.5 42.0
6.5
6.5
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
7.0
7.1
7.3
7.3
8.7 10.2
Indexu idade nian
15.0 15.7 16.3 16.9 17.4 17.9 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.3 25.7 35.9
5.7
6.0
6.2
6.3
6.3
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.8
7.3 10.3 12.0
Rasiu sexu = Numeru husi manes sira kada feto nain 100 ida.
Tinan klaran/Mediu = Tinan/idade e’ebé aka fahe populasaun ida ba grupu numeru ne’ebé hanesan; katak populasaun sorin joven
liu kompara ba ida-ne’e no sorin katuas/ferik.
Persentajen iha tinan 15 ba kraik – maka indikador ne’ebé simples liu iha estruktura husi populasaun ida; populasaun joven hirak
dala barak iha 40% husi sira-nia populasaun ho tinan 15 mai kraik.
Persentajen husi tinan/idade serbisu = maka numeru ema hirak iha tinan/idade reprodutiva ka tinan/idade serbisu nian (tinan 15 –
64) kada populaaun 100 ida.
Persentajen husi ema idade hirak = Numeru husi ema hirak ne’ebé iha ona idade pensionista nian (tinan 64) kada populasaun 100
ida.
Persentajen feto sira iha tinan/idade reprodutiva = maka numeru feto hirak ho tinan 15 ba 49 kada feto nain 100 husi populasaun.
Rasiu dependensia total = maka rasiu husi ema hirak-ne’ebé iha tinan/idade dependensia (jeralmente tinan 15 ba kraik no liu tinan
64) ba hirak-ne’ebé maka ekonomikamente iha tinan produtiva (tinan 15-64) iha populasaun ida.
Rasiu dependensia labarik nian = rasiu husi ema hirak-ne’ebé iha tinan/idade dependensia ki’ik liu (lato’o tinan 15) ba hirakne’ebé ekonomikamente produtiva ((15-64 years) iha populasaunn ida.
Rasiu tinan/idade dependensia nian = maka rasiu husi ema hirak-ne’ebé iha ona iha tinan boot ba tinan/idade dependensia (liu
tinan 65) ba hirak-ne’ebé ekonomikamente iha idade produtiva (15-64 years) iha populasaun ida.
Indexu idade nian = Numeru husi ema hirak ne’ebé ho tinan 60 kada ema 100 ho tinan 15 mai karaik.
Rasiu suporte inan-aman nian = numeru husi ema hirak ne’ebé ho tinan 85 ka liu kada ema nian atus ida ho tinan 50 to’o 64.
Indikador tuir mai maka tinan klaran, ne’ebé maka nu’udár idade iha ne’ebé populasaun sorin maka joven liu no
sorin maka idade liu. Oras-ne’e daudaun maka tinan 17.4, ne’ebé indika populasaun ne’ebé joven tebes. Nia
aumenta durante periodu projeksaun no to’on tinan 2050 nia sei to’o tinan 24.6 iha senariu mediu, ne’ebé sei sujere
populasaun ne’ebé la joven ona, maibé relativamente populasaun ne’ebé joven hela. Tendensia ne’e konfirma tuir
indikador ne’ebé tuir mai: persentajen husi populasaun ho tinan 15 mai kraik. Iha inisiu periodu projeksaun maka
45.0% no, tuir senariu mediu, to’o loron iku maka pontu 12.6% kuaze iha tinan 50. So senariu ki’ik indika
populasaun ida-ne’ebé la joven tebes ona to’o loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun. Tinan/idade mediu/klaran maka
tinan 28.5 no persentajen husi populasaun ne’ebé seidauk to’o tinan 15 maka 27.6%.
42
Tuir senariu mediu, populasaun ho idade/tinan serbisu nian aumenta, maski la boot: husi 51.7 % iha tinan 2004 to’o
62.4 % iha tinan 2050. Kresimentu ida-ne’e, oin’sa mós bele fó nosaun ne’ebé sala ida ba dinamika demografia
ne’ebé maka Timor-Leste esperiensia daudaun. Tabela 9 hatudu mudansa hirak iha valor absoluta no numeru
kresimentu ne’ebé grupu idade boot tolu sei esperiensia durante periodu projeksaun. Populasaun iha tinan/idade
serbisu bele esperiensia kresimentu absoluta ne’ebé bele konsidera, maski nia divisaun iha populasaun tomak sei la
aumenta to’o nivel importante ida. Tuir senariu mediu, husi tinan 2005 to’o 2030, nia sasukat sei aumenta dala rua
(double) husi tokon sorin ba liu tokon ida. Durante periodu projeksaun tomak populasau sei aumenta husi tokon sorin
ida ba besik tokon rua. Valor hirak-ne’e koreponde ba kresimentu dramatiku ida iha numeru absoluta husi traballador
potensial, katak, in termus suplai ba forsa traballador iha dekade hirak-ne’ebé atu tuir mai. Se la’e só kuandu iha
investementu boot, bele haboot izizensia traballadore, desempregu no subu desempregu sei aumenta signifikamente.
Se populasaun ida-ne’e la konsume ekonomikamente, demografia bonus sei sai demografia tax/impostu ka todan ida
(hare’e catatan kaki 4).
43
Tabela 9
Timor-Leste, mudansa populasaun tuir grupu tinan/idade boot ba senariu futuru tolu, tinan
2005 ba tinan 2050
SENARIU MEDIU
Tinan hirak
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Periodu hirak
2005-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
0-14
Numeru hirak
15-64
65+
443,190
507,309
515,203
595,700
645,624
830,940
756,251 1,134,761
861,835 1,487,361
978,597 1,883,319
Tinan hirak
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Periodu hirak
2005-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
443,525
507,289
522,326
595,443
709,164
829,455
947,021 1,155,214
1,225,404 1,600,166
1,539,908 2,194,718
32,852
37,942
52,242
75,577
106,294
141,157
Numeru husi kresimentu
3.27
3.20
2.88
3.06
3.31
3.20
2.89
3.31
3.69
2.58
3.26
3.41
2.28
3.16
2.84
32,870
38,125
53,253
78,575
113,185
154,553
3.01
3.21
2.97
2.26
3.33
3.34
1.58
3.12
3.89
1.31
2.71
3.65
1.27
2.36
3.12
SENARIU AAS/BOOT
Numeru hirak
0-14
15-64
65+
Total
983,369
1,149,028
1,529,817
1,969,587
2,462,381
3,016,469
3.11
2.86
2.53
2.23
2.03
SENARIU BADAK/KI’IK
Numeru hirak
Tinan hirak
0-14
15-64
65+
Total
983,666
1,155,711
1,590,861
2,177,812
2,931,864
3,875,783
2005
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Periodu hirak
2005-2010
2010-2020
2020-2030
2030-2040
2040-2050
3.22
3.20
3.14
2.97
2.79
44
442,907
507,330
508,211
595,973
580,707
832,467
605,152 1,113,113
655,713 1,381,422
697,149 1,657,983
32,888
38,318
54,291
81,737
120,671
168,852
2.75
3.22
3.06
1.33
3.34
3.48
0.41
2.91
4.09
0.80
2.16
3.90
0.61
1.82
3.36
Total
983,125
1,142,502
1,467,465
1,800,002
2,157,806
2,523,984
3.00
2.50
2.04
1.81
1.57
Loloos karik, kresimentu populasaun hanesan eskala ne’ebé maka projeita iha senariu mediu, la temi kresimentu
ne’ebé maka hare’e ona iha senariu boot, hare’e ekonomikamente sei konsume hotu maski nasaun esperiensia
expansaun ekonomia ida-ne’ebé boot. Eskritor politika no planu sira tenki tau ba iha konsiderasaun isu/asuntu idane’e atu halo planu estratejia ida atu responde ba problema ne’e, ne’ebé bele iha konsekuensia sosial no politika
hirak-ne’ebé seriu. Maski nune’e nota katak to’o tinan 2020-2030, velosidade husi kresimentu husi populasaun ho
tinan/idade serbisu sei hahu redusaun neineik ida. Aserta tempu ida-ne’e wainhira asume redusaun fertilidade tinan
lima ora-ne’e no tuir mai sei hahu atu hamenus velosidade kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu. Maibé,
kresimentu iha suplai traballador sei boot nafatin. Ida importante atu marka katak asuntu ida-ne’e labele trata nu’udár
parte husi dinamika populasaun nasaun nian maibé prinsipalmente nu’udár problema ekonomia, sosial no politika. Só
redusaun fertilidade subtansial ida-ne’ebé sei involve tranzisaun demografia diferente ida, bele rezultu iha expansaun
populasaun ho tinan/idade ida-ne’ebé ekonomikamente sei involve no permiti nasaun atu iha benefisiu husi bonus
demografia ida hahu hafoin tinan 2020.
Persentajen husi ema idade ona iha populasaun sei esperiensia kresimentu uit’oan: husi 3.4% iha tinan 2004 ba 5.1%
iha tinan 2050 (Tabela 8). Maibé, nu’udár iha kazu populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu nian, hirak-ne’ebé idade ona
ka ferik/katuas sei esperiensia krisimentu absoluta boot ida. Nota katak to’o tinan 2040, populasaun ferik/katuas sira
sei liu ema nain 100.000. Nia sasukat iha tinan 2005 maka só ema nain 32,870 (Tabela 9).
Ida-ne’e mós importante atu konsidera populasaun feto iha tina/idade reprodutiva. Iha tabela 8, tuir senariu mediu,
nia persentajen aumenta husi 44.6% ba 51.7% durante periodu projeksaun. Expansaun husi grupu feto ida-ne’e, no
defaktu katak to’o tinan atus ida-ne’e nia klaran sei kompostu husi metade husi populasaun feto, signifika momentum
ne’ebé forte no naruk ba population Timor-Leste nian
Rasiu husi ida dependensia maka rasiu husi ema hirak-ne’ebé iha idade dependente (tinan 15 mai kraik no liu tinan
64) ba hirak-ne’ebé maka iha idade produtiva ekonomikamente (tinan 15-64). Medidas demografia ida-ne’e dala
barak uza nu’udár indikador husi todan ekonomia ne’ebé porsaun husi populasaun produtivu ida tenki lori. Klaru
katak ida-ne’e hanesan indikador jeral husi dependensia ekonomia tamba ema barak ne’ebé maka defini nu’udár
dependete maka produtor no barak ne’ebé maka iha ida/tinan produtivu ekonomikamente dependente. medida idane’e integra ona ba rasiu dependensia foin sa’e, ne’ebé konsidera deit dependente foin sa’e (minus liu tinan 15) no
rasiu tinan/idade tuan, ne’ebé inklui deit dependente tinan tuan (liu tinan 65). Tuir Tabela 8, rasiu dependensia foin
sa’e nian esperiensia redusaun importante ida durante periodu projeksaun, indika kresimente ne’ebé lalais husi
populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu kompara idade labarik nia. Nu’udár sujere husi indikador pasadu rua, populasaun
sei joven nafatin maibé sei la joven hanesan oras-ne’e. Iha parte seluk, rasiu dependensia tinan tuan sei la esperiensia
mudansa. Nu’udár hatudu iha kraik, ida-ne’e rezultu husi faktu katak kresimentu konstanta husi populasaun ferik/
katuas sira sei kompensa ho redusaun ida iha velosidade kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu nian.
Rasiu dependensia total hatudu redusaun importante ida tamba sira depende deit ba variasaun husi numeru foin sa’e.
Indikador seluk tan ba todan ne’ebé ema hirak-ne’ebé idade ona sei hetan iha decade tuir mai iha indeku idade nian,
mós aprezenta iha Tabela8. Variable ida-ne’e koreponde ba numeru husi ema hirak-ne’ebé idade ona kada foin sa’e
nain 100. Nia sei aumenta husi 12.3 ba katuas/ferik hamutuk 23.9 kada foin sa’e nain 100 ida husi tinan 2004 ba
2030 no ba 15.8 iha tinan 2050.
Loloos karik, indikador ba todan husi ferik no katuas sira iha populasaun tomak iha futuru sei la tau Timor-Leste
nu’udár populasaun idade ida hanesan nasaun Europa sira, maibé importante atu realiza katak numeru husi katuas/
ferik sira sei aumenta maka’as tebes nu’udár sira-nia parte mós iha populasaun. Tendensia ne’e importante tebes no
tenki konsidera iha kualker planu dezenvolvimentu.
Indikador ikus iha Tabela 8, rasiu suporte inan/aman nian, maka proporsaun entre populasaun ho tinan 85 no liútan,
maioria husi hirak-ne’ebé maka lakon ona sira-nia autonomia no fizikamente vulnerabel, no populasaun hirak ho
tinan/idade 50 ba 64, ne’ebé koresponde aproximamente ba sira-nia oan hirak-ne’ebé adultu ona. Medida ida-ne’e fó
indikasaun baziku ida husi populasaun ne’ebé iha atu kuidadu hirak-ne’ebé idade tebes ona (Rowland, tinan 2003).
Ida-ne’e indikasaun estimativa ba numeru husi ferik/katuas sira husi sira-ne’ebé kuidade hamutuk nian 100 ida (la
sala sira nia oan hirak-ne’ebé boot ona). Iha kazu Timor-Leste nian, numeru katuas/ferik sira kada kuidade nain
hamutuk 100 hetan flaktuasaun nu’udár rezultadu husi modelu demografia pasadu no presente hirak. Husi tinan 2004
ba 2017, persentajen tun husi 8.7 ba 4.8 kada kuidadu nain 100 ida, no hafoin aumenta fali to’o 10.0 iha loron ikus
husi periodu projeksaun.
45
Rezultadu kompletu husi projeksaun (tuir Senariu Rekomenda) maka aprezenta iha Apendixu (Table A). Ida pasadu
kompostu husi populasaun tuir grupu sexu no tinan no tuir mai, populasaun tuir sexu no tinan/idade klik hirak, ba
hotu tinan kalendariu individual hirak husi tinan 2000 ba tinan 2050.
SUMARIU NO KONKLUZAUN HIRAK
Rezultadu husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e bele halo sumariu iha observasaun hat:
1. Hare’e ba populasaun husi Timor-Leste sei kontinua kresimentu ida-ne’ebé lalais no importante durante periodu
projeksaun tomak (2004-2050) no espesialmente durante dekade oras-ne’e no tuir mai nian. Maibé, sé fertilidade tun,
nu’udár asumi ona iha senariu hirak-ne’ebé maka hato’o ona, velosidade kresimentu populasaun sei tun neineik. Tuir
senariu mediu, to’o iha loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun, populasaun sei iha 2% kada tinan. Tuir senariu ne’ebé
hanesan mós, oras-ne’e, numeru anual husi kresimentu maka liu 3% no só iha inisiu husi dekade ne’ebé atu mai
kresimentu sei to’o iha valor ida-ne’ebé iha persentajen ne’e nia okos. Maski iha redusaun iha velosidade kresimentu,
populasaun sei esperiensia kresimentu absoluta ida. Husi estimasaun ida kala tokon 1 ba dekade oras-ne’e nia klaran,
populasaun sei aumenta besik tokon 2 iha tinan 2030 no liu tokon 3 iha loron ikus husi periodu projeksaun. Nota
katak iha senariu boot, iha ne’ebé fertilidade asume ba atu esperiensia redusaun modesta ida, populasaun sei to’o
besik tokon 3 iha tinan 2040 no besik tokon 4 iha tinan 2050.
2. Nu’udár temi ona iha leten, asume ona katak fertilidade sei tun no sei kontinua nafatin durante periodu projeksaun
iha senariu tolu. Maski iha asunsaun ida-ne’e ba futuru, populasaun sei kontinua esperiensia kresimentu importante
ida. Ida-ne’e los katak velosidade kresimentu populasaunsei tun durante dekade lima atu mai, maibé ida kala sei sei
hetan redusaun ne’ebé maka’as liu iha senariu mediu no ki’ik, hodi konsidera katak redusaun iha fertilidade nu’udár
konklui ona. Ko’alia liútan, maski fertilidade tun sei lalais liútan, kresimentu populasaun sei maka’as nafatin. Razaun
loloos ba influensa limita ida-ne’e husi fertilidade ba kresimentu populasaun maka momentum populasaun ne’ebé
populasaun Timor-Leste esperiensia daudaun. Numeru fertilidade ne’ebé maka’as iha pasadu no oras-ne’e fó
potensialidade ba kresimentu populasaun ida-ne’ebé lalais no maka’as maski iha redusaun fertilidade.
3. Analiza uluk husi relasaun entre fertilidade no kresimentu populasaun bele fó posibilidade aidea ne’ebé sala katak
tendensia fertilidade la’os preokupasaun ida ba sasukat populasaun Timor-Leste nian iha futuru. Tendensia
fertilidade hirak-ne’ebé diferente uza iha senariu tolu ne’ebé hato’o iha projeksaun-ne’e indika kakat, defaktu,
durante dekade ne’ebé tuir mai no ida seluk tan, mundansa fertilidade bele iha impaktu ida-ne’ebé limita ba sasukat
populasaun nian. Maibé, redusaun fertilidade ida-ne’ebé maka lalais liu, nu’udár izemplu, haforsa husi programa
planiamentu familiar, sei bele nota iha tinan 2030 nia laran.
4. Mudansa iha estruktura tinan/idade ne’ebé hakarak, nu’udár rezultadu husi redusaun fertilidade, sujere potensial ba
bonus demografia ida, maka porsaun husi populasaun foin sa’e sei menus no porsaun husi populasaun ho tinan/idade
serbisu nian sei aumenta. Rekursu importante, ne’ebé sei sé la’e muda fali ba gastu sosial, bele uza fali ba hadiak
infrastruktura nasaun nian. Maski velosidade kresimentu populasaun joven sei menus, kresimentu ba populasaun ho
tinan/idade serbisu nian sei aumenta dramatikamente, aplika presaun populasaun maka’as ba sistema ekonomia. Ho
liafuan seluk, izizensia ba serbisu sei aumenta maka’as. Maski ekonomia nasaun nia sei aumenta partikularmente, no
izizi ba forsa serbisu nian sei esperiensia kresimentu ida ne’ebé hanesan, numeru husi kresimentu ba populasaun ho
tinan/idade serbisu nian hare’e ba sei liu kualker numeru husi kriasaun serbisu ne’ebé diak. Só redusaun fertilidade
maka’as ida maka sei bele rezulta iha expansaun husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu sei konsumi
ekonomikamente no permiti nasaun atu iha benefisiu husi bonus demografia ida hahu hafoin tinan 2020.
Pontu final sei hasoru isu/asuntu importante liu ne’ebé mosu husi projeksaun hirak-ne’e. Expansaun husi populasaun
ho tinan/idade serbisu nian ne’ebé asumi ona iha projeksaun hirak-ne’e fó desafiu boot ida ba ekonomia Timor-Leste
nian, ne’ebé hanaran kriasaun serbisu hirak iha nivel ne’ebé bele konsumi kresimentu kuantidade husi ema ne’ebé
tama ba forsa serbisu nian. Kresimentu husi populasaun ho tinan/idade serbisu nian maka faktor ida ne’ebé labele atu
modifika tamba ida-ne’e la’os rezultadu husi tempu oras-nee, maibé husi dinamika demografia pasadu nasaun nian.
Grupu boot ne’ebé moris iha tinan 1990 nia laran no parte dala uluk husi dekade oras-ne’e nian sei sai adultu joven
iha dekade rua maitan no nune’e sai parte husi forsa serbisu nian. Maski sé, nu’udár tuir loloos iha ne’e, fertilidade
46
hahu tun, kresimentu husi populasaun ho idade serbisu nian sei kontinua maka’as tebes. Isu/asuntu importante liu iha
kazu ida-ne’e maka atu buka dalan atu konsumi kresimentu ida hanesan ne’e. Ida-ne’e importante atu realize katak
solusaun hirak ba problema ne’e maka ekonomia no politika, maibé iha mós komponente demografia, sosial no
kultural. Funsaun husi demografia maka la’os deit atu fó dadus/informasaun ba ekonomista no planu nain sira maib’e
atu kontribui ho nia instrumentu konseptu no metodolojika rasik ba disukusaun politika publiku nian kona-ba
kriasaun serbisu, investimentu no distribusaun husi rekursu sira.
Ikus mai, ida-ne’e mós iha valor atu temi katak exersizu projeksaun ne’e sei dook husi hotu. Iha liútan projeksaun
hirak ne’ebé tenki hala’o.
Dala uluk, sei importante tebes atu halo projeksaun ba populasaun tuir distritu sira. Konsiderasaun boot ida iha kazu
ne’e maka heterojiniti ne’ebé maka’as iha Timor-Leste. Projeksaun ida iha nivel distritu presiza atu konfirma
projeksaun nasional oras-ne’e nian, ne’ebé dala ruma la bele hetan diversidade husi Timor-Leste nian.
Dala rua nian, sei importante tebes atu hala’o projeksaun lubuk ida nu’udár exersizu simulasaun ida. Projeksaun
hirak-ne’e bele hala’o atu determina kombinasaun optimu husi asunsaun kredibel kona-ba komponente ne’ebé sei
lori ba velosidade husi kresimentu populasaun ne’ebé favoravel kona-ba no estruktura tinan/idade atu hetan objektivu
dezenvolvimentu ne’ebé iha ona. Hafoin estudu no analiza didiak hirak, bele harii ona nivel husi kresimentu no
estruktura populasaun ida nu’udár favoravel ba dezenvolvimentu sosio-ekonomiku. Distribusaun populasuan jeral
optimu bele harii ona sé simulasaun hala’o iha nivel distritu. Kombinasaun husi tendensia fertilidade, mortalidade no
migrasaun oioin ne’ebé sei presiza atu hetan populasaun ida ho karakteristiku sira bele explora ona liúhusi prosedura
simulasaun ne’e. Ida-ne’e exersizu ida-ne’ebé maka orienta ba politika ne’ebé sei importante atu planu politika
populasaun iha Timor-Leste.
47
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49
APENDIXU
Tabela A
Timor-Leste, projeksaun populasaun tuir sexu no tinan klik hirak, tinan 2000
Ba tinan 2050 - senariu mediu/klaran.
2004
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Total
952002
483689
468313
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
171,563
32,227
35,906
36,128
34,723
32,579
87,811
16,495
18,383
18,503
17,772
16,658
83,752
15,732
17,523
17,625
16,951
15,921
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
45,901
9,512
9,579
9,444
9,004
8,362
22491
4,719
4,705
4,608
4,383
4,076
23410
4,793
4,874
4,836
4,621
4,286
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
138,039
30,349
28,450
27,109
26,314
25,817
70,661
15,504
14,531
13,860
13,485
13,281
67,378
14,845
13,919
13,249
12,829
12,536
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
34,285
7,620
6,979
6,567
6,488
6,631
16900
3,725
3,422
3,236
3,214
3,303
17385
3,895
3,557
3,331
3,274
3,328
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
118,529
25,201
24,588
23,864
22,956
21,920
61361
13,028
12,764
12,402
11,891
11,276
57168
12,173
11,824
11,462
11,065
10,644
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
32901
6,896
7,050
6,929
6,408
5,618
16635
3,455
3,553
3,507
3,256
2,864
16266
3,441
3,497
3,422
3,152
2,754
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
95181
20,865
19,877
18,954
18,123
17,362
47906
10,637
10,045
9,509
9,054
8,661
47275
10,228
9,832
9,445
9,069
8,701
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
19,186
4,706
3,929
3,455
3,415
3,681
9900
2,409
2,022
1,787
1,772
1,910
9286
2,297
1,907
1,668
1,643
1,771
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
75626
16,687
16,014
15,245
14,329
13,351
37603
8,320
7,976
7,583
7,113
6,611
38023
8,367
8,038
7,662
7,216
6,740
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
20495
4,068
4,338
4,390
4,107
3,592
10602
2,110
2,249
2,273
2,121
1,849
9893
1,958
2,089
2,117
1,986
1,743
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
57082
12,290
11,376
10,898
11,005
11,513
28338
6,065
5,601
5,381
5,483
5,808
28744
6,225
5,775
5,517
5,522
5,705
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
11736
3,003
2,511
2,160
2,023
2,039
5947
1,537
1,275
1,090
1,017
1,028
5789
1,466
1,236
1,070
1,006
1,011
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
62348
12,232
12,805
12,981
12,575
11,755
32195
6,247
6,602
6,730
6,528
6,088
30153
5,985
6,203
6,251
6,047
5,667
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
9676
2,101
2,116
2,036
1,846
1,577
4917
1,063
1,074
1,036
940
804
4759
1,038
1,042
1,000
906
773
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
48753
10,788
9,979
9,419
9,240
9,327
24870
5,568
5,132
4,813
4,680
4,677
23883
5,220
4,847
4,606
4,560
4,650
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
4391
1,271
983
759
656
722
2310
649
505
397
355
404
2081
622
478
362
301
318
80+
6,310
3,242
3,068
(kontinua)
50
APENDIXU
Tabela A (kontinusaun)
2005
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Total
983,369
499,573
483,796
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
176,438
39,445
30,973
35,501
35,927
34,592
90,333
20,164
15,854
18,193
18,410
17,712
86,105
19,281
15,119
17,308
17,517
16,880
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
46,612
9,281
9,460
9,525
9,392
8,954
22958
4,653
4,691
4,676
4,581
4,357
23654
4,628
4,769
4,849
4,811
4,597
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
144496
32,495
30,289
28,394
27,056
26,262
73892
16,618
15,476
14,504
13,834
13,460
70604
15,877
14,813
13,890
13,222
12,802
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
35751
8,307
7,562
6,926
6,517
6,439
17526
4,046
3,693
3,392
3,208
3,187
18225
4,261
3,869
3,534
3,309
3,252
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
122,256
25,774
25,169
24,554
23,833
22,926
63282
13,260
13,012
12,747
12,387
11,876
58974
12,514
12,157
11,807
11,446
11,050
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
33549
6,570
6,819
6,972
6,851
6,337
16861
3,268
3,410
3,507
3,462
3,214
16688
3,302
3,409
3,465
3,389
3,123
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
99538
21,882
20,822
19,835
18,915
18,084
50415
11,256
10,614
10,022
9,489
9,034
49123
10,626
10,208
9,813
9,426
9,050
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
20,789
5,540
4,629
3,863
3,398
3,359
10655
2,818
2,363
1,983
1,753
1,738
10134
2,722
2,266
1,880
1,645
1,621
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
79410
17,318
16,638
15,968
15,199
14,287
39529
8,637
8,293
7,951
7,558
7,090
39881
8,681
8,345
8,017
7,641
7,197
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
20080
3,604
3,965
4,230
4,278
4,003
10370
1,865
2,050
2,186
2,208
2,061
9710
1,739
1,915
2,044
2,070
1,942
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
58734
13,310
12,252
11,340
10,863
10,969
29047
6,590
6,046
5,583
5,363
5,465
29687
6,720
6,206
5,757
5,500
5,504
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
12792
3,477
2,884
2,413
2,075
1,943
6491
1,783
1,471
1,221
1,043
973
6301
1,694
1,413
1,192
1,032
970
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
61885
11,474
12,188
12,758
12,935
12,530
31802
5,788
6,225
6,578
6,706
6,505
30083
5,686
5,963
6,180
6,229
6,025
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
9524
1,935
1,969
1,983
1,907
1,730
4810
972
992
1,002
967
877
4714
963
977
981
940
853
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
50961
11,708
10,740
9,936
9,378
9,199
26166
6,063
5,543
5,110
4,791
4,659
24795
5,645
5,197
4,826
4,587
4,540
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
4756
1,450
1,145
886
683
592
2446
736
582
453
356
319
2310
714
563
433
327
273
80+
5,798
2,990
2,808
(kontinua)
51
APENDIXU
Tabela A (kontinuasaun)
2006
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,015,187
515,678
499,509
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
179,743
39,937
38,070
30,632
35,309
35,795
92,019
20,411
19,461
15,694
18,104
18,349
87,724
19,526
18,609
14,938
17,205
17,446
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
46,606
9,154
9,229
9,408
9,474
9,341
23126
4,635
4,625
4,663
4,649
4,554
23480
4,519
4,604
4,745
4,825
4,787
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
152514
34,507
32,433
30,230
28,340
27,004
77995
17,672
16,588
15,448
14,478
13,809
74519
16,835
15,845
14,782
13,862
13,195
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
37988
8,895
8,245
7,505
6,874
6,469
18542
4,325
4,012
3,661
3,363
3,181
19446
4,570
4,233
3,844
3,511
3,288
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
125,422
26,220
25,740
25,136
24,523
23,803
64781
13,439
13,243
12,996
12,731
12,372
60641
12,781
12,497
12,140
11,792
11,431
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
33293
6,379
6,498
6,744
6,896
6,776
16626
3,153
3,226
3,367
3,462
3,418
16667
3,226
3,272
3,377
3,434
3,358
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
104172
22,886
21,838
20,778
19,794
18,876
53146
11,855
11,232
10,591
10,000
9,468
51026
11,031
10,606
10,187
9,794
9,408
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
23,395
6,250
5,449
4,554
3,799
3,343
11911
3,163
2,764
2,319
1,945
1,720
11484
3,087
2,685
2,235
1,854
1,623
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
82974
18,040
17,267
16,590
15,922
15,155
41346
9,010
8,609
8,267
7,926
7,534
41628
9,030
8,658
8,323
7,996
7,621
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
18966
3,289
3,515
3,865
4,125
4,172
9773
1,697
1,813
1,992
2,125
2,146
9193
1,592
1,702
1,873
2,000
2,026
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
61859
14,244
13,268
12,214
11,304
10,829
30573
7,067
6,569
6,027
5,565
5,345
31286
7,177
6,699
6,187
5,739
5,484
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
14300
3,874
3,342
2,770
2,319
1,995
7271
1,988
1,707
1,408
1,169
999
7029
1,886
1,635
1,362
1,150
996
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
60112
10,932
11,434
12,145
12,712
12,889
30654
5,447
5,768
6,203
6,554
6,682
29458
5,485
5,666
5,942
6,158
6,207
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
9153
1,845
1,815
1,846
1,859
1,788
4592
920
908
926
935
903
4561
925
907
920
924
885
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
54063
12,482
11,657
10,694
9,892
9,338
27892
6,480
6,036
5,519
5,087
4,770
26171
6,002
5,621
5,175
4,805
4,568
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
5347
1,593
1,308
1,032
799
615
2713
804
661
522
407
319
2634
789
647
510
392
296
80+
5,280
2,718
2,562
(kontinua)
52
APENDIXU
2007
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Feto
1,047,632
532,099
515,533
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
182,487
40,583
38,586
37,664
30,470
35,184
93,393
20,740
19,719
19,269
15,619
18,046
89,094
19,843
18,867
18,395
14,851
17,138
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
46,356
9,293
9,104
9,179
9,357
9,423
23209
4,746
4,607
4,598
4,636
4,622
23147
4,547
4,497
4,581
4,721
4,801
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
160985
35,709
34,443
32,373
30,173
28,287
82382
18,309
17,641
16,559
15,420
14,453
78603
17,400
16,802
15,814
14,753
13,834
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
40566
9,281
8,829
8,184
7,450
6,822
19752
4,521
4,288
3,979
3,630
3,334
20814
4,760
4,541
4,205
3,820
3,488
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
128,451
26,962
26,187
25,706
25,104
24,492
66132
13,788
13,423
13,226
12,980
12,715
62319
13,174
12,764
12,480
12,124
11,777
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
32640
6,411
6,310
6,427
6,670
6,822
16189
3,148
3,113
3,185
3,324
3,419
16451
3,263
3,197
3,242
3,346
3,403
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
108886
23,764
22,840
21,792
20,737
19,753
55935
12,351
11,830
11,207
10,569
9,978
52951
11,413
11,010
10,585
10,168
9,775
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
26,412
6,684
6,149
5,361
4,480
3,738
13364
3,364
3,104
2,712
2,275
1,909
13048
3,320
3,045
2,649
2,205
1,829
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
86457
18,831
17,988
17,218
16,542
15,878
43149
9,443
8,982
8,582
8,240
7,902
43308
9,388
9,006
8,636
8,302
7,976
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
17703
3,274
3,208
3,429
3,769
4,023
9094
1,679
1,650
1,763
1,936
2,066
8609
1,595
1,558
1,666
1,833
1,957
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
65982
15,109
14,201
13,227
12,176
11,269
32658
7,510
7,045
6,548
6,008
5,547
33324
7,599
7,156
6,679
6,168
5,722
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
15870
4,040
3,725
3,212
2,664
2,229
8078
2,071
1,904
1,635
1,349
1119
7792
1,969
1,821
1,577
1,315
1110
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
57852
10,793
10,895
11,395
12,102
12,667
29216
5,327
5,429
5,748
6,181
6,531
28636
5,466
5,466
5,647
5,921
6,136
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
8807
1,895
1,732
1,703
1,732
1,745
4392
945
860
848
865
874
4415
950
872
855
867
871
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
57374
12,839
12,429
11,608
10,648
9,850
29677
6,655
6,452
6,010
5,495
5,065
27697
6,184
5,977
5,598
5,153
4,785
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
5919
1,647
1,438
1,181
931
722
2979
828
722
594
469
366
2940
819
716
587
462
356
80+
4,885
2,500
2,385
Total
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Male
Mane
Feto
(kontinua)
53
APENDIXU
2008
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,080,742
548,855
531,887
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
186,543
41,269
39,253
38,186
37,470
30,365
95,425
21,089
20,057
19,530
19,179
15,570
91,118
20,180
19,196
18,656
18,291
14,795
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
46,539
9,804
9,242
9,055
9,131
9,307
23519
5,040
4,718
4,580
4,572
4,609
23020
4,764
4,524
4,475
4,559
4,698
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
167561
35,103
35,644
34,381
32,314
30,119
85821
18,008
18,277
17,611
16,531
15,394
81740
17,095
17,367
16,770
15,783
14,725
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
42860
9,363
9,213
8,765
8,123
7,396
20870
4,589
4,483
4,253
3,945
3,600
21990
4,774
4,730
4,512
4,178
3,796
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
132,072
28,244
26,928
26,154
25,674
25,072
67783
14,432
13,771
13,406
13,210
12,964
64289
13,812
13,157
12,748
12,464
12,108
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
32301
6,760
6,343
6,242
6,358
6,598
15909
3,299
3,109
3,074
3,145
3,282
16392
3,461
3,234
3,168
3,213
3,316
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
113407
24,453
23,715
22,795
21,748
20,696
58552
12,694
12,324
11,805
11,183
10,546
54855
11,759
11,391
10,990
10,565
10,150
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
29,043
6,731
6,577
6,051
5,275
4,409
14608
3,366
3,301
3,046
2,662
2,233
14435
3,365
3,276
3,005
2,613
2,176
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
90087
19,706
18,777
17,938
17,171
16,495
45090
9,953
9,413
8,954
8,556
8,214
44997
9,753
9,364
8,984
8,615
8,281
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
17007
3,663
3,193
3,130
3,345
3,676
8698
1,865
1,632
1,605
1,714
1,882
8309
1,798
1,561
1,525
1,631
1,794
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
70379
15,832
15,063
14,158
13,187
12,139
34904
7,878
7,486
7,023
6,528
5,989
35475
7,954
7,577
7,135
6,659
6,150
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
17018
3,898
3,886
3,582
3,090
2,562
8662
1,995
1,984
1,824
1,567
1,292
8356
1,903
1,902
1,758
1,523
1,270
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
56262
11,233
10,757
10,857
11,355
12,060
28135
5,529
5,309
5,410
5,728
6,159
28127
5,704
5,448
5,447
5,627
5,901
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
8750
2,119
1,779
1,627
1,598
1,627
4348
1,060
883
804
792
809
4402
1,059
896
823
806
818
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
59944
12,619
12,786
12,377
11,559
10,603
31012
6,506
6,627
6,424
5,984
5,471
28932
6,113
6,159
5,953
5,575
5,132
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
6305
1,609
1,489
1,298
1,068
841
3152
802
745
649
534
422
3153
807
744
649
534
419
80+
4,664
2,367
2,297
(kontinua)
54
APENDIXU
2009
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,114,534
565,954
548,580
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
196,148
41,992
39,958
38,858
37,995
37,345
100,303
21,457
20,414
19,870
19,441
19,121
95,845
20,535
19,544
18,988
18,554
18,224
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
47,588
10,553
9,752
9,193
9,007
9,083
24245
5,444
5,011
4,691
4,553
4,546
23343
5,109
4,741
4,502
4,454
4,537
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
167496
30,296
35,042
35,581
34,320
32,257
85847
15,537
17,979
18,246
17,582
16,503
81649
14,759
17,063
17,335
16,738
15,754
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
44456
9,249
9,295
9,146
8,702
8,064
21704
4,577
4,551
4,446
4,218
3,912
22752
4,672
4,744
4,700
4,484
4,152
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
136,943
30,074
28,210
26,895
26,121
25,643
70125
15,372
14,415
13,754
13,390
13,194
66818
14,702
13,795
13,141
12,731
12,449
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
32760
7,330
6,689
6,275
6,176
6,290
16033
3,563
3,258
3,070
3,036
3,106
16727
3,767
3,431
3,205
3,140
3,184
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
117560
25,031
24,406
23,668
22,749
21,706
60847
12,942
12,668
12,298
11,779
11,160
56713
12,089
11,738
11,370
10,970
10,546
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
30,756
6,511
6,625
6,473
5,955
5,192
15378
3,231
3,304
3,240
2,990
2,613
15378
3,280
3,321
3,233
2,965
2,579
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
94036
20,647
19,652
18,726
17,888
17,123
47282
10,519
9,923
9,384
8,926
8,530
46754
10,128
9,729
9,342
8,962
8,593
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
17331
4,322
3,574
3,116
3,055
3,264
8812
2,182
1,814
1,587
1,562
1,667
8519
2,140
1,760
1,529
1,493
1,597
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
74516
16,449
15,785
15,018
14,115
13,149
37015
8,189
7,854
7,463
7,001
6,508
37501
8,260
7,931
7,555
7,114
6,641
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
17470
3,562
3,750
3,740
3,446
2,972
8880
1,817
1,912
1,902
1,748
1,501
8590
1,745
1,838
1,838
1,698
1,471
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
56152
12,099
11,195
10,722
10,820
11,316
27870
5,969
5,510
5,292
5,391
5,708
28282
6,130
5,685
5,430
5,429
5,608
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
9130
2,437
1,992
1,671
1,529
1,501
4534
1,224
992
825
752
741
4596
1,213
1,000
846
777
760
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
61152
12,015
12,567
12,733
12,325
11,512
31568
6,136
6,478
6,599
6,396
5,959
29584
5,879
6,089
6,134
5,929
5,553
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
6444
1,502
1,455
1,348
1,173
966
3200
743
722
671
583
481
3244
759
733
677
590
485
80+
4,596
2,311
2,285
(kontinua)
55
APENDIXU
2010
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,149,028
583,405
565,623
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
199,556
42,749
40,699
39,568
38,669
37,871
102,026
21,842
20,790
20,229
19,782
19,383
97,530
20,907
19,909
19,339
18,887
18,488
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
49,761
11,458
10,498
9,701
9,145
8,959
25516
5,929
5,413
4,983
4,665
4,526
24245
5,529
5,085
4,718
4,480
4,433
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
172,271
37,263
30,245
34,982
35,521
34,260
88314
19,082
15,512
17,950
18,217
17,553
83957
18,181
14,733
17,032
17,304
16,707
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
45,159
9,027
9,184
9,227
9,080
8,641
22161
4,515
4,540
4,513
4,409
4,184
22998
4,512
4,644
4,714
4,671
4,457
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
143,376
32,210
30,039
28,175
26,863
26,089
73343
16,480
15,354
14,397
13,738
13,374
70033
15,730
14,685
13,778
13,125
12,715
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
34,186
7,993
7,253
6,619
6,209
6,112
16640
3,872
3,519
3,218
3,032
2,999
17546
4,121
3,734
3,401
3,177
3,113
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
121,271
25,602
24,983
24,359
23,622
22,705
62,756
13,172
12,915
12,642
12,272
11,755
58,515
12,430
12,068
11,717
11,350
10,950
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
31,372
6,207
6,410
6,521
6,372
5,862
15,590
3,058
3,173
3,243
3,181
2,935
15,782
3,149
3,237
3,278
3,191
2,927
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
98,360
21,655
20,591
19,600
18,675
17,839
49,766
11,131
10,487
9,894
9,355
8,899
48,594
10,524
10,104
9,706
9,320
8,940
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
18,821
5,090
4,219
3,489
3,040
2,983
9,505
2,554
2,123
1,765
1,543
1,520
9,316
2,536
2,096
1,724
1,497
1,463
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
78,263
17,075
16,401
15,739
14,974
14,074
38,919
8,504
8,164
7,831
7,440
6,980
39,344
8,571
8,237
7,908
7,534
7,094
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
17,119
3,164
3,428
3,609
3,601
3,317
8,685
1,610
1,742
1,833
1,824
1,676
8,434
1,554
1,686
1,776
1,777
1,641
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
57,794
13,108
12,059
11,157
10,686
10,784
28574
6,487
5,949
5,491
5,274
5,373
29220
6,621
6,110
5,666
5,412
5,411
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
10,001
2,829
2,291
1,872
1,571
1,438
4972
1,423
1,145
928
772
704
5029
1,406
1,146
944
799
734
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
60,713
11,274
11,967
12,516
12,681
12,275
31188
5,686
6,111
6,451
6,571
6,369
29525
5,588
5,856
6,065
6,110
5,906
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
6,346
1,386
1,360
1,317
1,222
1,061
3130
681
669
650
605
525
3216
705
691
667
617
536
80+
4,659
2,320
2,339
(kontinua)
56
APENDIXU
2011
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,184,193
601,193
583,000
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
203,196
43,477
41,479
40,312
39,381
38,547
103,871
22,213
21,186
20,606
20,141
19,725
99,325
21,264
20,293
19,706
19,240
18,822
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
52,809
12,218
11,398
10,445
9,651
9,097
27209
6,337
5,896
5,383
4,955
4,638
25600
5,881
5,502
5,062
4,696
4,459
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
175574
37,791
37,202
30,194
34,925
35,462
89995
19,345
19,053
15,487
17,922
18,188
85579
18,446
18,149
14,707
17,003
17,274
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
45163
8,904
8,963
9,120
9,161
9,015
22326
4,495
4,479
4,503
4,476
4,373
22837
4,409
4,484
4,617
4,685
4,642
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
151,358
34,211
32,172
30,003
28,141
26,831
77427
17,529
16,461
15,336
14,379
13,722
73931
16,682
15,711
14,667
13,762
13,109
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
36350
8,567
7,910
7,178
6,550
6,145
17617
4,142
3,825
3,476
3,179
2,995
18733
4,425
4,085
3,702
3,371
3,150
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
124427
26,049
25,554
24,935
24,312
23,577
64249
13,353
13,145
12,888
12,616
12,247
60178
12,696
12,409
12,047
11,696
11,330
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
31,149
6,033
6,111
6,312
6,420
6,273
15379
2,954
3,002
3,116
3,184
3,123
15770
3,079
3,109
3,196
3,236
3,150
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
102960
22,653
21,598
20,536
19,548
18,625
52470
11,725
11,098
10,456
9,864
9,327
50490
10,928
10,500
10,080
9,684
9,298
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
21213
5,749
4,969
4,120
3,406
2,969
10640
2,870
2,485
2,066
1,717
1,502
10573
2,879
2,484
2,054
1,689
1,467
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
81795
17,789
17,027
16,354
15,694
14,931
40716
8,872
8,479
8,140
7,807
7,418
41079
8,917
8,548
8,214
7,887
7,513
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
16183
2,893
3,046
3,302
3,475
3,467
8191
1,469
1,544
1,671
1,758
1,749
7992
1,424
1,502
1,631
1,717
1,718
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
60888
14,031
13,064
12,020
11,121
10,652
30082
6,958
6,465
5,929
5,473
5,257
30806
7,073
6,599
6,091
5,648
5,395
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
11214
3,158
2,661
2,156
1,761
1,478
5585
1,589
1,332
1,073
868
723
5629
1,569
1,329
1,083
893
755
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
58988
10,744
11,228
11,919
12,467
12,630
30069
5,353
5,662
6,085
6,425
6,544
28919
5,391
5,566
5,834
6,042
6,086
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
6120
1,330
1,256
1,233
1,194
1,107
2996
648
614
603
586
545
3124
682
642
630
608
562
80+
4,806
2,371
2,435
(kontinua)
57
APENDIXU
2012
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
sexu rua
hotu
Age
Mane
Feto
1,219,992
619,300
600,692
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
206,888
44,174
42,229
41,097
40,127
39,261
105,744
22,569
21,567
21,004
20,519
20,085
101,144
21,605
20,662
20,093
19,608
19,176
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
56,062
12,573
12,156
11,341
10,390
9,602
28958
6,512
6,302
5,864
5,352
4,928
27104
6,061
5,854
5,477
5,038
4,674
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
178356
38,469
37,730
37,143
30,145
34,869
91386
19,688
19,315
19,025
15,463
17,895
86970
18,781
18,415
18,118
14,682
16,974
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
44937
9,043
8,840
8,902
9,055
9,097
22415
4,607
4,458
4,444
4,466
4,440
22522
4,436
4,382
4,458
4,589
4,657
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
159,794
35,413
34,171
32,133
29,969
28,108
81794
18,163
17,509
16,441
15,319
14,362
78000
17,250
16,662
15,692
14,650
13,746
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
38833
8,938
8,479
7,829
7,105
6,482
18775
4,330
4,092
3,778
3,435
3,140
20058
4,608
4,387
4,051
3,670
3,342
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
127,453
26,790
26,001
25,506
24,888
24,268
65,597
13,700
13,326
13,118
12,862
12,591
61,856
13,090
12,675
12,388
12,026
11,677
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
30,564
6,068
5,940
6,019
6,216
6,321
14,987
2,951
2,900
2,949
3,060
3,127
15,577
3,117
3,040
3,070
3,156
3,194
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
107638
23,523
22,595
21,540
20,482
19,498
55232
12,216
11,691
11,065
10,425
9,835
52406
11,307
10,904
10,475
10,057
9,663
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
23972
6,152
5,616
4,853
4,024
3,327
11949
3,053
2,794
2,419
2,011
1,672
12023
3,099
2,822
2,434
2,013
1,655
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
85249
18,573
17,740
16,979
16,308
15,649
42499
9,299
8,846
8,454
8,116
7,784
42750
9,274
8,894
8,525
8,192
7,865
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
15131
2,880
2,788
2,933
3,182
3,348
7633
1,451
1,410
1,481
1,604
1,687
7498
1,429
1,378
1,452
1,578
1,661
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
64962
14,887
13,985
13,023
11,982
11,085
32139
7,395
6,935
6,444
5,910
5,455
32823
7,492
7,050
6,579
6,072
5,630
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
12469
3,302
2,973
2,506
2,030
1,658
6214
1,658
1,489
1,248
1,006
813
6255
1,644
1,484
1,258
1,024
845
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
56788
10,613
10,702
11,184
11,871
12,418
28666
5,237
5,331
5,639
6,060
6,399
28122
5,376
5,371
5,545
5,811
6,019
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
5916
1,367
1,207
1,140
1,118
1,084
2877
665
585
554
544
529
3039
702
622
586
574
555
80+
4,980
2,435
2,545
(kontinua)
58
APENDIXU
2013
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,256,441
637,733
618,708
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
210,618
44,891
42,950
41,853
40,915
40,009
107,639
22,935
21,934
21,388
20,918
20,464
102,979
21,956
21,016
20,465
19,997
19,545
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
58,590
12,363
12,510
12,094
11,284
10,339
30267
6,369
6,476
6,267
5,832
5,323
28323
5,994
6,034
5,827
5,452
5,016
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
182446
39,183
38,408
37,672
37,085
30,098
93430
20,048
19,658
19,287
18,997
15,440
89016
19,135
18,750
18,385
18,088
14,658
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
45136
9,544
8,980
8,779
8,839
8,994
22727
4,895
4,570
4,423
4,408
4,431
22409
4,649
4,410
4,356
4,431
4,563
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
166,357
34,822
35,373
34,132
32,096
29,934
85226
17,872
18,142
17,489
16,422
15,301
81131
16,950
17,231
16,643
15,674
14,633
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
41043
9,019
8,848
8,393
7,749
7,034
19844
4,396
4,278
4,043
3,733
3,394
21199
4,623
4,570
4,350
4,016
3,640
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
131062
28,067
26,740
25,953
25,460
24,842
67239
14,340
13,672
13,299
13,092
12,836
63823
13,727
13,068
12,654
12,368
12,006
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
30,278
6,401
5,976
5,851
5,929
6,121
14743
3,094
2,898
2,849
2,897
3,005
15535
3,307
3,078
3,002
3,032
3,116
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
112128
24,214
23,463
22,537
21,485
20,429
57826
12,560
12,181
11,657
11,033
10,395
54302
11,654
11,282
10,880
10,452
10,034
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
26372
6,202
6,010
5,487
4,741
3,932
13065
3,059
2,972
2,721
2,355
1,958
13307
3,143
3,038
2,766
2,386
1,974
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
88854
19,446
18,522
17,690
16,933
16,263
44420
9,806
9,272
8,820
8,430
8,092
44434
9,640
9,250
8,870
8,503
8,171
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
14585
3,229
2,775
2,688
2,826
3,067
7324
1,617
1,392
1,354
1,421
1,540
7261
1,612
1,383
1,334
1,405
1,527
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
69309
15,602
14,840
13,941
12,982
11,944
34358
7,760
7,371
6,913
6,423
5,891
34951
7,842
7,469
7,028
6,559
6,053
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
13377
3,192
3,111
2,800
2,361
1,913
6664
1,601
1,555
1,395
1,170
943
6713
1,591
1,556
1,405
1,191
970
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
55244
11,047
10,571
10,660
11,142
11,824
27612
5,435
5,216
5,309
5,617
6,035
27632
5,612
5,355
5,351
5,525
5,789
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
5924
1,535
1,242
1,096
1,035
1,016
2870
749
601
528
500
492
3054
786
641
568
535
524
80+
5,118
2,479
2,639
(kontinua)
59
APENDIXU
2014
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,293,556
656,501
637,055
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
214,370
45,630
43,689
42,580
41,673
40,798
109,546
23,312
22,311
21,757
21,303
20,863
104,824
22,318
21,378
20,823
20,370
19,935
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
59,784
11,772
12,302
12,449
12,034
11,227
30816
6,007
6,334
6,442
6,233
5,800
28968
5,765
5,968
6,007
5,801
5,427
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
192051
39,932
39,124
38,350
37,616
37,029
98306
20,428
20,019
19,630
19,260
18,969
93745
19,504
19,105
18,720
18,356
18,060
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
46173
10,279
9,478
8,918
8,720
8,778
23440
5,288
4,856
4,534
4,389
4,373
22733
4,991
4,622
4,384
4,331
4,405
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
166,327
30,059
34,782
35,334
34,093
32,059
85266
15,421
17,851
18,122
17,469
16,403
81061
14,638
16,931
17,212
16,624
15,656
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
42587
8,918
8,928
8,760
8,309
7,672
20643
4,387
4,344
4,228
3,995
3,689
21944
4,531
4,584
4,532
4,314
3,983
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
135920
29,891
28,016
26,692
25,907
25,414
69573
15,277
14,312
13,645
13,273
13,066
66347
14,614
13,704
13,047
12,634
12,348
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
30,746
6,947
6,306
5,887
5,764
5,842
14877
3,344
3,040
2,847
2,799
2,847
15869
3,603
3,266
3,040
2,965
2,995
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
116255
24,788
24,153
23,403
22,480
21,431
60100
12,805
12,524
12,146
11,623
11,002
56155
11,983
11,629
11,257
10,857
10,429
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
27935
6,006
6,060
5,874
5,363
4,632
13756
2,939
2,979
2,895
2,650
2,293
14179
3,067
3,081
2,979
2,713
2,339
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
92770
20,375
19,394
18,471
17,642
16,888
46589
10,365
9,778
9,245
8,795
8,406
46181
10,010
9,616
9,226
8,847
8,482
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
14925
3,818
3,114
2,676
2,591
2,726
7449
1,894
1,553
1,337
1,300
1,365
7476
1,924
1,561
1,339
1,291
1,361
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
73403
16,216
15,553
14,794
13,898
12,942
36444
8,068
7,735
7,347
6,891
6,403
36959
8,148
7,818
7,447
7,007
6,539
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
13732
2,924
3,009
2,933
2,640
2,226
6828
1,462
1,501
1,459
1,309
1097
6904
1,462
1,508
1,474
1,331
1,129
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
55156
11,902
11,005
10,531
10,619
11,099
27360
5,869
5,414
5,195
5,288
5,594
27796
6,033
5,591
5,336
5,331
5,505
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
6235
1,772
1,396
1,129
997
941
3019
869
677
543
478
452
3216
903
719
586
519
489
80+
5,187
2,489
2,698
(kontinua)
60
APENDIXU
2015
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,331,354
675,612
655,742
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
218,125
46,391
44,450
43,324
42,402
41,558
111,457
23,701
22,698
22,136
21,673
21,249
106,668
22,690
21,752
21,188
20,729
20,309
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
59,370
11,050
11,715
12,242
12,389
11,974
30449
5,567
5,975
6,300
6,408
6,199
28921
5,483
5,740
5,942
5,981
5,775
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
195518
40,722
39,874
39,067
38,294
37,561
100054
20,827
20,400
19,991
19,603
19,233
95464
19,895
19,474
19,076
18,691
18,328
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
48303
11,162
10,210
9,413
8,857
8,661
24681
5,762
5,248
4,818
4,498
4,355
23622
5,400
4,962
4,595
4,359
4,306
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
171,102
36,982
30,025
34,744
35,295
34,056
87732
18,946
15,403
17,831
18,102
17,450
83370
18,036
14,622
16,913
17,193
16,606
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
43275
8,706
8,828
8,841
8,673
8,227
21087
4,331
4,335
4,294
4,178
3,949
22188
4,375
4,493
4,547
4,495
4,278
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
142324
32,013
29,838
27,966
26,645
25,862
72775
16,378
15,247
14,284
13,618
13,248
69549
15,635
14,591
13,682
13,027
12,614
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
32,117
7,578
6,845
6,214
5,801
5,679
15456
3,635
3,286
2,987
2,798
2,750
16661
3,943
3,559
3,227
3,003
2,929
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
119948
25,359
24,727
24,093
23,345
22,424
61993
13,034
12,769
12,489
12,111
11,590
57955
12,325
11,958
11,604
11,234
10,834
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
28514
5,734
5,872
5,923
5,742
5,243
13953
2,786
2,863
2,902
2,820
2,582
14561
2,948
3,009
3,021
2,922
2,661
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
97055
21,375
20,321
19,342
18,422
17,595
49046
10,971
10,336
9,750
9,219
8,770
48009
10,404
9,985
9,592
9,203
8,825
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
16267
4,498
3,684
3,004
2,581
2,500
8063
2,218
1,820
1,492
1,284
1,249
8204
2,280
1,864
1,512
1,297
1,251
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
77118
16,840
16,167
15,506
14,748
13,857
38328
8,381
8,043
7,711
7,323
6,870
38790
8,459
8,124
7,795
7,425
6,987
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
13456
2,601
2,759
2,838
2,767
2,491
6676
1,297
1,372
1,409
1,369
1,229
6780
1,304
1,387
1,429
1,398
1,262
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
56789
12,897
11,857
10,965
10,491
10,579
28061
6,380
5,846
5,393
5,174
5,268
28728
6,517
6,011
5,572
5,317
5,311
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
6883
2,064
1,613
1,270
1,029
907
3334
1012
786
612
492
432
3549
1052
827
658
537
475
80+
5,190
2,467
2,723
(kontinua)
61
APENDIXU
2016
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,369,829
695,061
674,768
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
221,908
47,146
45,235
44,090
43,149
42,288
113,382
24,086
23,098
22,525
22,053
21,620
108,526
23,060
22,137
21,565
21,096
20,668
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
57,701
10,533
10,997
11,659
12,183
12,329
29365
5,243
5,538
5,944
6,266
6,374
28336
5,290
5,459
5,715
5,917
5,955
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
199218
41,483
40,665
39,818
39,012
38,240
101926
21,213
20,799
20,373
19,964
19,577
97292
20,270
19,866
19,445
19,048
18,663
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
51282
11,905
11,088
10,141
9,349
8,799
26329
6,159
5,718
5,207
4,781
4,464
24953
5,746
5,370
4,934
4,568
4,335
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
174,411
37,514
36,941
29,994
34,705
35,257
89414
19,209
18,925
15,387
17,811
18,082
84997
18,305
18,016
14,607
16,894
17,175
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
43294
8,589
8,621
8,741
8,755
8,588
21253
4,313
4,281
4,285
4,244
4,130
22041
4,276
4,340
4,456
4,511
4,458
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
150268
34,008
31,957
29,787
27,917
26,599
76836
17,423
16,347
15,218
14,256
13,592
73432
16,585
15,610
14,569
13,661
13,007
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
34,183
8,128
7,468
6,746
6,124
5,717
16380
3,892
3,572
3,230
2,936
2,750
17803
4,236
3,896
3,516
3,188
2,967
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
123094
25,808
25,297
24,668
24,033
23,288
63479
13,217
12,997
12,734
12,454
12,077
59615
12,591
12,300
11,934
11,579
11,211
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
28330
5,576
5,607
5,741
5,793
5,613
13771
2,691
2,715
2,789
2,829
2,747
14559
2,885
2,892
2,952
2,964
2,866
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
101620
22,368
21,318
20,268
19,292
18,374
51722
11,558
10,940
10,307
9,723
9,194
49898
10,810
10,378
9,961
9,569
9,180
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
18382
5,095
4,341
3,556
2,899
2,491
9048
2,499
2,132
1,749
1,434
1,234
9334
2,596
2,209
1,807
1,465
1,257
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
80617
17,546
16,790
16,118
15,459
14,704
40104
8,744
8,355
8,018
7,687
7,300
40513
8,802
8,435
8,100
7,772
7,404
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
12737
2,386
2,456
2,604
2,680
2,611
6302
1,187
1,218
1,288
1,324
1,285
6435
1,199
1,238
1,316
1,356
1,326
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
59851
13,811
12,849
11,814
10,924
10,453
29551
6,846
6,355
5,824
5,372
5,154
30300
6,965
6,494
5,990
5,552
5,299
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
7757
2,313
1,880
1,470
1,157
937
3762
1135
916
712
554
445
3995
1178
964
758
603
492
80+
5,176
2,437
2,739
(kontinua)
62
APENDIXU
2017
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,408,952
714,831
694,121
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
225,726
47,878
46,014
44,880
43,916
43,038
115,323
24,459
23,494
22,927
22,442
22,001
110,403
23,419
22,520
21,953
21,474
21,037
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
55,566
10,409
10,484
10,944
11,605
12,124
28002
5,131
5,216
5,508
5,914
6,233
27564
5,278
5,268
5,436
5,691
5,891
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
202973
42,215
41,426
40,610
39,763
38,959
103827
21,585
21,185
20,773
20,346
19,938
99146
20,630
20,241
19,837
19,417
19,021
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
54462
12,259
11,827
11,014
10,074
9,288
28032
6,333
6,112
5,675
5,167
4,745
26430
5,926
5,715
5,339
4,907
4,543
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
177,199
38,193
37,474
36,902
29,962
34,668
90808
19,553
19,188
18,905
15,370
17,792
86391
18,640
18,286
17,997
14,592
16,876
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
43096
8,726
8,506
8,538
8,656
8,670
21348
4,421
4,264
4,232
4,236
4,195
21748
4,305
4,242
4,306
4,420
4,475
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
158667
35,208
33,951
31,902
29,736
27,870
81179
18,055
17,390
16,316
15,189
14,229
77488
17,153
16,561
15,586
14,547
13,641
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
36,545
8,485
8,012
7,362
6,650
6,036
17470
4,071
3,826
3,512
3,175
2,886
19075
4,414
4,186
3,850
3,475
3,150
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
126,112
26,545
25,746
25,236
24,609
23,976
64,821
13,561
13,180
12,961
12,699
12,420
61,291
12,984
12,566
12,275
11,910
11,556
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
27,834
5,614
5,454
5,485
5,615
5,666
13,437
2,692
2,623
2,646
2,718
2,758
14,397
2,922
2,831
2,839
2,897
2,908
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
106,262
23,229
22,312
21,263
20,216
19,242
54,455
12,043
11,527
10,910
10,279
9,696
51,807
11,186
10,785
10,353
9,937
9,546
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
20,798
5,455
4,920
4,191
3,434
2,798
10,171
2,659
2,403
2,049
1,682
1,378
10,627
2,796
2,517
2,142
1,752
1,420
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
84043
18,324
17,493
16,742
16,071
15,413
41871
9,167
8,717
8,330
7,994
7,663
42172
9,157
8,776
8,412
8,077
7,750
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
11946
2,381
2,253
2,321
2,459
2,532
5888
1,174
1,115
1,145
1,210
1,244
6058
1,207
1,138
1,176
1,249
1,288
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
63874
14,656
13,761
12,803
11,770
10,884
31578
7,275
6,820
6,331
5,801
5,351
32296
7,381
6,941
6,472
5,969
5,533
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
8646
2,425
2,110
1,715
1,341
1,055
4194
1187
1029
830
646
502
4452
1,238
1081
885
695
553
80+
5,203
2,427
2,776
(kontinua)
63
APENDIXU
2018
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,448,691
734,906
713,785
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
229,534
48,585
46,770
45,664
44,709
43,806
117,257
24,819
23,878
23,325
22,845
22,390
112,277
23,766
22,892
22,339
21,864
21,416
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
54,078
10,839
10,361
10,435
10,893
11,550
26983
5,327
5,105
5,189
5,479
5,883
27095
5,512
5,256
5,246
5,414
5,667
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
206764
42,967
42,159
41,371
40,556
39,711
105751
21,968
21,557
21,159
20,746
20,321
101013
20,999
20,602
20,212
19,810
19,390
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
56935
12,056
12,180
11,748
10,943
10,008
29306
6,194
6,286
6,065
5,633
5,128
27629
5,862
5,894
5,683
5,310
4,880
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
181,295
38,912
38,153
37,436
36,863
29,931
92852
19,914
19,532
19,168
18,884
15,354
88443
18,998
18,621
18,268
17,979
14,577
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
43309
9,213
8,642
8,425
8,456
8,573
21659
4,700
4,371
4,216
4,184
4,188
21650
4,513
4,271
4,209
4,272
4,385
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
165199
34,621
35,149
33,895
31,848
29,686
84590
17,766
18,021
17,358
16,285
15,160
80609
16,855
17,128
16,537
15,563
14,526
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
38,646
8,568
8,365
7,899
7,258
6,556
18474
4,136
4,002
3,762
3,453
3,121
20172
4,432
4,363
4,137
3,805
3,435
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
129711
27,815
26,482
25,685
25,177
24,552
66456
14,197
13,524
13,144
12,926
12,665
63255
13,618
12,958
12,541
12,251
11,887
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
27617
5,929
5,493
5,336
5,365
5,494
13237
2,826
2,625
2,557
2,579
2,650
14380
3,103
2,868
2,779
2,786
2,844
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
110718
23,917
23,170
22,256
21,210
20,165
57024
12,386
12,010
11,496
10,881
10,251
53694
11,531
11,160
10,760
10,329
9,914
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
22897
5,509
5,270
4,753
4,049
3,316
11128
2,671
2,558
2,311
1,971
1,617
11769
2,838
2,712
2,442
2,078
1,699
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
87622
19,190
18,270
17,444
16,694
16,024
43773
9,668
9,139
8,691
8,305
7,970
43849
9,522
9,131
8,753
8,389
8,054
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
11575
2,675
2,251
2,129
2,195
2,325
5678
1,311
1,104
1,048
1,077
1,138
5897
1,364
1,147
1,081
1,118
1,187
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
68164
15,364
14,602
13,713
12,757
11,728
33765
7,637
7,247
6,795
6,307
5,779
34399
7,727
7,355
6,918
6,450
5,949
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
9284
2,354
2,213
1,926
1,567
1,224
4499
1150
1076
934
753
586
4785
1,204
1137
992
814
638
80+
5,343
2,474
2,869
(kontinua)
64
APENDIXU
2019
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,488,968
755,246
733,722
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
233,246
49,223
47,500
46,427
45,496
44,600
119,142
25,144
24,249
23,712
23,244
22,793
114,104
24,079
23,251
22,715
22,252
21,807
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
54,013
11,680
10,789
10,314
10,386
10,844
26746
5,753
5,300
5,079
5,162
5,452
27267
5,927
5,489
5,235
5,224
5,392
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
210575
43,736
42,912
42,105
41,318
40,504
107683
22,357
21,941
21,531
21,133
20,721
102892
21,379
20,971
20,574
20,185
19,783
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
58110
11,485
11,979
12,101
11,672
10,873
29844
5,845
6,149
6,239
6,019
5,592
28266
5,640
5,830
5,862
5,653
5,281
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
190,874
39,665
38,872
38,115
37,397
36,825
97713
20,297
19,893
19,512
19,147
18,864
93161
19,368
18,979
18,603
18,250
17,961
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
44334
9,928
9,125
8,560
8,346
8,375
22355
5,080
4,647
4,322
4,169
4,137
21979
4,848
4,478
4,238
4,177
4,238
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
165182
29,891
34,564
35,092
33,839
31,796
84634
15,332
17,733
17,988
17,326
16,255
80548
14,559
16,831
17,104
16,513
15,541
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
40,116
8,473
8,448
8,249
7,789
7,157
19227
4,130
4,067
3,935
3,700
3,395
20889
4,343
4,381
4,314
4,089
3,762
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
134544
29,627
27,752
26,421
25,625
25,119
68772
15,125
14,160
13,487
13,109
12,891
65772
14,502
13,592
12,934
12,516
12,228
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
28091
6,441
5,802
5,376
5,222
5,250
13380
3,057
2,755
2,560
2,493
2,515
14711
3,384
3,047
2,816
2,729
2,735
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
114823
24,494
23,857
23,114
22,201
21,157
59280
12,632
12,352
11,979
11,465
10,852
55543
11,862
11,505
11,135
10,736
10,305
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
24267
5,344
5,324
5,092
4,594
3,913
11718
2,568
2,570
2,460
2,224
1,896
12549
2,776
2,754
2,632
2,370
2,017
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
91507
20,111
19,136
18,218
17,395
16,647
45919
10,222
9,639
9,112
8,665
8,281
45588
9,889
9,497
9,106
8,730
8,366
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
11922
3,172
2,530
2,130
2,013
2,077
5811
1,540
1,233
1,039
985
1,014
6111
1,632
1,297
1,091
1,028
1,063
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
72211
15,973
15,311
14,549
13,665
12,713
35825
7,943
7,609
7,219
6,770
6,284
36386
8,030
7,702
7,330
6,895
6,429
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
9529
2,163
2,151
2,023
1,761
1,431
4605
1,052
1044
977
849
683
4924
1,111
1107
1046
912
748
80+
5,624
2,592
3,032
(kontinua)
65
APENDIXU
2020
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,529,817
775,869
753,948
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
236,879
49,903
48,164
47,162
46,262
45,388
120,987
25,491
24,586
24,085
23,632
23,193
115,892
24,412
23,578
23,077
22,630
22,195
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
55,636
12,663
11,627
10,740
10,268
10,338
27443
6,257
5,724
5,273
5,054
5,135
28193
6,406
5,903
5,467
5,214
5,203
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
214392
44,531
43,681
42,861
42,052
41,267
109619
22,760
22,330
21,916
21,505
21,108
104773
21,771
21,351
20,945
20,547
20,159
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
57721
10,785
11,412
11,902
12,025
11,597
29492
5,419
5,802
6,103
6,194
5,974
28229
5,366
5,610
5,799
5,831
5,623
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
194,353
40,458
39,625
38,833
38,077
37,360
99465
20,698
20,275
19,873
19,492
19,127
94888
19,760
19,350
18,960
18,585
18,233
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
46409
10,788
9,833
9,041
8,479
8,268
23557
5,541
5,023
4,596
4,274
4,123
22852
5,247
4,810
4,445
4,205
4,145
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
169947
36,777
29,842
34,508
35,036
33,784
87091
18,837
15,304
17,700
17,955
17,295
82856
17,940
14,538
16,808
17,081
16,489
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
40,783
8,278
8,356
8,331
8,135
7,683
19651
4,080
4,062
3,999
3,870
3,640
21132
4,198
4,294
4,332
4,265
4,043
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
140912
31,735
29,560
27,690
26,361
25,566
71952
16,219
15,085
14,123
13,451
13,074
68960
15,516
14,475
13,567
12,910
12,492
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
29392
7,032
6,306
5,680
5,262
5,112
13923
3,325
2,982
2,687
2,497
2,432
15469
3,707
3,324
2,993
2,765
2,680
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
118500
25,060
24,436
23,798
23,058
22,148
61158
12,857
12,599
12,319
11,948
11,435
57342
12,203
11,837
11,479
11,110
10,713
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
24788
5,109
5,167
5,147
4,922
4,443
11891
2,437
2,472
2,474
2,367
2,141
12897
2,672
2,695
2,673
2,555
2,302
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
95754
21,102
20,055
19,083
18,167
17,347
48350
10,822
10,192
9,611
9,085
8,640
47404
10,280
9,863
9,472
9,082
8,707
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
13064
3,744
3,003
2,395
2,016
1,906
6321
1,805
1,450
1,161
978
927
6743
1,939
1,553
1,234
1,038
979
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
75886
16,595
15,917
15,258
14,499
13,617
37685
8,253
7,914
7,581
7,192
6,745
38201
8,342
8,003
7,677
7,307
6,872
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
9342
1,933
1,979
1,968
1,851
1,611
4503
938
956
949
888
772
4839
995
1,023
1019
963
839
80+
6,059
2,781
3,278
(kontinua)
66
APENDIXU
2021
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,571,373
796,842
774,531
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
240,580
50,725
48,867
47,833
46,998
46,157
122,866
25,910
24,943
24,425
24,006
23,582
117,714
24,815
23,924
23,408
22,992
22,575
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
58,660
13,564
12,606
11,576
10,692
10,222
28914
6,717
6,225
5,696
5,247
5,029
29746
6,847
6,381
5,880
5,445
5,193
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
218238
45,321
44,478
43,628
42,810
42,001
111570
23,161
22,734
22,304
21,891
21,480
106668
22,160
21,744
21,324
20,919
20,521
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
56116
10,283
10,717
11,341
11,826
11,949
28450
5,103
5,380
5,760
6,058
6,149
27666
5,180
5,337
5,581
5,768
5,800
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
198,061
41,222
40,419
39,585
38,795
38,040
101341
21,085
20,677
20,254
19,852
19,473
96720
20,137
19,742
19,331
18,943
18,567
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
49294
11,507
10,689
9,740
8,958
8,400
25140
5,919
5,481
4,967
4,546
4,227
24154
5,588
5,208
4,773
4,412
4,173
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
173260
37,311
36,720
29,795
34,453
34,981
88770
19,099
18,804
15,276
17,668
17,923
84490
18,212
17,916
14,519
16,785
17,058
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
40,822
8,174
8,164
8,242
8,218
8,024
19817
4,067
4,013
3,996
3,934
3,807
21005
4,107
4,151
4,246
4,284
4,217
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
148810
33,720
31,664
29,494
27,630
26,302
75982
17,257
16,177
15,045
14,087
13,416
72828
16,463
15,487
14,449
13,543
12,886
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
31327
7,552
6,885
6,176
5,561
5,153
14777
3,566
3,244
2,910
2,621
2,436
16550
3,986
3,641
3,266
2,940
2,717
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
121630
25,507
25,001
24,378
23,741
23,003
62634
13,039
12,825
12,566
12,287
11,917
58996
12,468
12,176
11,812
11,454
11,086
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
24655
4,976
4,941
4,998
4,979
4,761
11746
2,358
2,346
2,380
2,383
2,279
12909
2,618
2,595
2,618
2,596
2,482
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
100285
22,092
21,044
20,000
19,032
18,117
50999
11,404
10,790
10,163
9,584
9,058
49286
10,688
10,254
9,837
9,448
9,059
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
14824
4,254
3,546
2,845
2,269
1,910
7120
2,039
1,700
1,366
1,094
921
7704
2,215
1,846
1,479
1,175
989
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
79350
17,293
16,539
15,863
15,206
14,449
39439
8,612
8,223
7,885
7,554
7,165
39911
8,681
8,316
7,978
7,652
7,284
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
8856
1,777
1,769
1,812
1,802
1,696
4252
859
853
869
863
808
4604
918
916
943
939
888
80+
6,605
3,025
3,580
(kontinua)
67
APENDIXU
2022
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,613,653
818,174
795,479
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
244,389
51,566
49,712
48,544
47,672
46,895
124,801
26,339
25,373
24,785
24,347
23,957
119,588
25,227
24,339
23,759
23,325
22,938
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
62,618
14,392
13,504
12,552
11,525
10,645
30902
7,134
6,684
6,195
5,668
5,221
31716
7,258
6,820
6,357
5,857
5,424
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
222124
46,091
45,269
44,426
43,578
42,760
113540
23,550
23,136
22,708
22,280
21,866
108584
22,541
22,133
21,718
21,298
20,894
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
54061
10,168
10,219
10,651
11,271
11,752
27139
4,999
5,066
5,341
5,719
6,014
26922
5,169
5,153
5,310
5,552
5,738
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
201,823
41,956
41,183
40,379
39,548
38,757
103242
21,457
21,064
20,656
20,234
19,831
98581
20,499
20,119
19,723
19,314
18,926
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
52377
11,857
11,401
10,592
9,650
8,877
26780
6,093
5,855
5,422
4,913
4,497
25597
5,764
5,546
5,170
4,737
4,380
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
176057
37,993
37,252
36,663
29,749
34,400
90168
19,447
19,064
18,771
15,249
17,637
85889
18,546
18,188
17,892
14,500
16,763
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
40,659
8,305
8,062
8,054
8,132
8,106
19921
4,170
4,001
3,948
3,932
3,870
20738
4,135
4,061
4,106
4,200
4,236
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
157157
34,916
33,647
31,595
29,429
27,570
80289
17,884
17,213
16,135
15,006
14,051
76868
17,032
16,434
15,460
14,423
13,519
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
33527
7,889
7,397
6,744
6,050
5,447
15775
3,731
3,480
3,166
2,840
2,558
17752
4,158
3,917
3,578
3,210
2,889
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
124641
26,243
25,448
24,943
24,321
23,686
63970
13,382
13,006
12,792
12,534
12,256
60671
12,861
12,442
12,151
11,787
11,430
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
24268
5,017
4,815
4,782
4,836
4,818
11481
2,362
2,271
2,260
2,292
2,296
12787
2,655
2,544
2,522
2,544
2,522
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
104894
22,945
22,033
20,988
19,946
18,982
53707
11,885
11,371
10,760
10,134
9,557
51187
11,060
10,662
10,228
9,812
9,425
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
16803
4,561
4,033
3,362
2,696
2,151
8014
2,172
1,922
1,602
1,287
1,031
8789
2,389
2,111
1,760
1,409
1,120
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
82746
18,062
17,235
16,483
15,810
15,156
41187
9,029
8,581
8,193
7,857
7,527
41559
9,033
8,654
8,290
7,953
7,629
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
8346
1,782
1,629
1,622
1,661
1,652
3989
854
782
777
791
785
4357
928
847
845
870
867
80+
7,163
3,269
3,894
(kontinua)
68
APENDIXU
2023
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,656,545
839,808
816,737
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
248,225
52,297
50,576
49,393
48,387
47,572
126,749
26,712
25,812
25,217
24,709
24,299
121,476
25,585
24,764
24,176
23,678
23,273
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
66,847
15,098
14,330
13,446
12,498
11,475
33052
7,495
7,100
6,652
6,165
5,640
33795
7,603
7,230
6,794
6,333
5,835
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
225993
46,829
46,040
45,218
44,377
43,529
115501
23,925
23,525
23,111
22,684
22,256
110492
22,904
22,515
22,107
21,693
21,273
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
52641
10,589
10,106
10,157
10,586
11,203
26165
5,190
4,963
5,030
5,303
5,679
26476
5,399
5,143
5,127
5,283
5,524
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
205,628
42,716
41,917
41,144
40,340
39,511
105171
21,843
21,436
21,043
20,635
20,214
100457
20,873
20,481
20,101
19,705
19,297
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
54768
11,662
11,749
11,299
10,496
9,562
28004
5,960
6,027
5,793
5,364
4,860
26764
5,702
5,722
5,506
5,132
4,702
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
180151
38,709
37,935
37,195
36,609
29,703
92208
19,804
19,413
19,030
18,739
15,222
87943
18,905
18,522
18,165
17,870
14,481
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
40,897
8,778
8,193
7,955
7,947
8,024
20232
4,437
4,103
3,938
3,885
3,869
20665
4,341
4,090
4,017
4,062
4,155
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
163648
34,337
34,841
33,575
31,529
29,366
83670
17,599
17,839
17,169
16,095
14,968
79978
16,738
17,002
16,406
15,434
14,398
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
35481
7,970
7,729
7,247
6,608
5,927
16695
3,793
3,642
3,397
3,091
2,772
18786
4,177
4,087
3,850
3,517
3,155
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
128233
27,509
26,183
25,390
24,886
24,265
65599
14,015
13,349
12,973
12,760
12,502
62634
13,494
12,834
12,417
12,126
11,763
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
24136
5,306
4,857
4,662
4,629
4,682
11332
2,481
2,276
2,189
2,177
2,209
12804
2,825
2,581
2,473
2,452
2,473
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
109315
23,628
22,885
21,976
20,932
19,894
56251
12,224
11,852
11,339
10,730
10,106
53064
11,404
11,033
10,637
10,202
9,788
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
18519
4,619
4,326
3,826
3,190
2,558
8775
2,189
2,048
1,813
1,511
1,214
9744
2,430
2,278
2,013
1,679
1,344
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
86293
18,927
18,001
17,179
16,428
15,758
43067
9,527
8,996
8,551
8,164
7,829
43226
9,400
9,005
8,628
8,264
7,929
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
8150
2,007
1,636
1,494
1,490
1,523
3875
956
778
712
709
720
4275
1,051
858
782
781
803
80+
7,620
3,462
4,158
(kontinua)
69
APENDIXU
2024
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,699,747
861,590
838,157
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
251,842
52,720
51,333
50,262
49,240
48,287
128,586
26,927
26,198
25,658
25,142
24,661
123,256
25,793
25,135
24,604
24,098
23,626
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
70,834
15,699
15,033
14,270
13,388
12,444
35077
7,797
7,458
7,067
6,620
6,135
35757
7,902
7,575
7,203
6,768
6,309
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
229776
47,509
46,779
45,990
45,170
44,328
117417
24,269
23,900
23,501
23,087
22,660
112359
23,240
22,879
22,489
22,083
21,668
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
52606
11,417
10,525
10,046
10,096
10,522
25949
5,607
5,153
4,929
4,994
5,266
26657
5,810
5,372
5,117
5,102
5,256
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
209,449
43,485
42,677
41,878
41,106
40,303
107107
22,233
21,822
21,415
21,022
20,615
102342
21,252
20,855
20,463
20,084
19,688
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
55921
11,119
11,558
11,644
11,198
10,402
28527
5,629
5,896
5,964
5,731
5,307
27394
5,490
5,662
5,680
5,467
5,095
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
189687
39,463
38,652
37,878
37,139
36,555
97040
20,187
19,770
19,379
18,997
18,707
92647
19,276
18,882
18,499
18,142
17,848
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
41,896
9,456
8,662
8,084
7,851
7,843
20901
4,796
4,367
4,038
3,876
3,824
20995
4,660
4,295
4,046
3,975
4,019
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
163651
29,650
34,265
34,768
33,504
31,464
83721
15,190
17,555
17,795
17,125
16,056
79930
14,460
16,710
16,973
16,379
15,408
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
36855
7,891
7,810
7,575
7,102
6,477
17388
3,793
3,703
3,557
3,316
3,019
19467
4,098
4,107
4,018
3,786
3,458
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
133038
29,302
27,448
26,125
25,333
24,830
67896
14,930
13,981
13,316
12,941
12,728
65142
14,372
13,467
12,809
12,392
12,102
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
24617
5,775
5,139
4,704
4,515
4,484
11484
2,690
2,391
2,194
2,110
2,099
13133
3,085
2,748
2,510
2,405
2,385
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
113398
24,207
23,567
22,825
21,920
20,879
58488
12,470
12,190
11,819
11,308
10,701
54910
11,737
11,377
11,006
10,612
10,178
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
19643
4,490
4,385
4,107
3,632
3,029
9242
2,107
2,066
1,932
1,711
1,426
10401
2,383
2,319
2,175
1,921
1,603
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
90142
19,835
18,867
17,941
17,123
16,376
45189
10,074
9,494
8,964
8,521
8,136
44953
9,761
9,373
8,977
8,602
8,240
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
8477
2,389
1,844
1,503
1,372
1,369
4004
1,126
872
710
649
647
4473
1,263
972
793
723
722
80+
7,915
3,574
4,341
(kontinua)
70
APENDIXU
2025
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,743,239
883,511
859,728
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
255,182
53,117
51,786
51,026
50,110
49,143
130,283
27,129
26,428
26,047
25,583
25,096
124,899
25,988
25,358
24,979
24,527
24,047
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
74,461
16,316
15,633
14,969
14,211
13,332
36908
8,103
7,760
7,422
7,034
6,589
37553
8,213
7,873
7,547
7,177
6,743
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
233479
48,224
47,460
46,730
45,942
45,123
119292
24,630
24,245
23,876
23,477
23,064
114187
23,594
23,215
22,854
22,465
22,059
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
54215
12,380
11,350
10,463
9,986
10,036
26638
6,099
5,568
5,117
4,895
4,959
27577
6,281
5,782
5,346
5,091
5,077
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
213,277
44,285
43,445
42,638
41,840
41,069
109046
22,638
22,211
21,801
21,394
21,002
104231
21,647
21,234
20,837
20,446
20,067
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
55563
10,446
11,020
11,456
11,541
11,100
28197
5,221
5,569
5,834
5,902
5,671
27366
5,225
5,451
5,622
5,639
5,429
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
193164
40,256
39,405
38,596
37,822
37,085
98787
20,588
20,152
19,737
19,346
18,964
94377
19,668
19,253
18,859
18,476
18,121
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
43,896
10,288
9,332
8,549
7,978
7,749
22048
5,238
4,721
4,299
3,974
3,816
21848
5,050
4,611
4,250
4,004
3,933
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
168406
36,490
29,590
34,194
34,697
33,435
86167
18,668
15,153
17,512
17,751
17,083
82239
17,822
14,437
16,682
16,946
16,352
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
37493
7,715
7,734
7,657
7,425
6,962
17783
3,750
3,704
3,617
3,474
3,238
19710
3,965
4,030
4,040
3,951
3,724
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
139369
31,398
29,238
27,388
26,067
25,278
71051
16,017
14,894
13,947
13,283
12,910
68318
15,381
14,344
13,441
12,784
12,368
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
25822
6,314
5,595
4,979
4,559
4,375
11981
2,931
2,594
2,305
2,116
2,035
13841
3,383
3,001
2,674
2,443
2,340
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
117056
24,771
24,146
23,507
22,768
21,864
60352
12,695
12,436
12,157
11,787
11,277
56704
12,076
11,710
11,350
10,981
10,587
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
20086
4,302
4,267
4,164
3,902
3,451
9383
2,003
1,990
1,950
1,824
1,616
10703
2,299
2,277
2,214
2,078
1,835
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
94351
20,820
19,772
18,807
17,883
17,069
47594
10,669
10,039
9,461
8,933
8,492
46757
10,151
9,733
9,346
8,950
8,577
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
9368
2,832
2,197
1,696
1,382
1,261
4388
1,324
1,028
796
648
592
4980
1,508
1,169
900
734
669
80+
8,051
3,613
4,438
(kontinua)
71
APENDIXU
2026
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,787,349
905,740
881,609
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
258,434
53,846
52,210
51,486
50,878
50,014
131,936
27,502
26,643
26,280
25,974
25,537
126,498
26,344
25,567
25,206
24,904
24,477
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
77,884
17,007
16,248
15,569
14,907
14,153
38636
8,458
8,065
7,724
7,387
7,002
39248
8,549
8,183
7,845
7,520
7,151
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
237249
49,082
48,175
47,413
46,682
45,897
121201
25,066
24,606
24,222
23,852
23,455
116048
24,016
23,569
23,191
22,830
22,442
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
57185
13,265
12,307
11,285
10,401
9,927
28080
6,551
6,056
5,531
5,081
4,861
29105
6,714
6,251
5,754
5,320
5,066
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
217,134
45,079
44,247
43,406
42,600
41,802
111001
23,041
22,617
22,190
21,780
21,373
106133
22,038
21,630
21,216
20,820
20,429
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
54040
9,964
10,356
10,924
11,356
11,440
27209
4,917
5,167
5,511
5,773
5,841
26831
5,047
5,189
5,413
5,583
5,599
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
196877
41,022
40,198
39,348
38,542
37,767
100664
20,975
20,553
20,118
19,705
19,313
96213
20,047
19,645
19,230
18,837
18,454
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
46,662
10,981
10,154
9,212
8,439
7,876
23549
5,598
5,157
4,648
4,233
3,913
23113
5,383
4,997
4,564
4,206
3,963
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
171721
37,021
36,417
29,531
34,124
34,628
87842
18,925
18,623
15,117
17,469
17,708
83879
18,096
17,794
14,414
16,655
16,920
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
37558
7,623
7,564
7,583
7,508
7,280
17951
3,742
3,664
3,618
3,534
3,393
19607
3,881
3,900
3,965
3,974
3,887
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
147212
33,365
31,331
29,175
27,329
26,012
75044
17,042
15,979
14,858
13,913
13,252
72168
16,323
15,352
14,317
13,416
12,760
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
27579
6,788
6,121
5,425
4,825
4,420
12739
3,144
2,828
2,503
2,223
2,041
14840
3,644
3,293
2,922
2,602
2,379
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
120175
25,219
24,710
24,087
23,448
22,711
61821
12,877
12,661
12,403
12,125
11,755
58354
12,342
12,049
11,684
11,323
10,956
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
20014
4,200
4,091
4,056
3,958
3,709
9281
1,943
1,893
1,880
1,842
1,723
10733
2,257
2,198
2,176
2,116
1,986
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
98843
21,803
20,755
19,709
18,749
17,827
50212
11,243
10,633
10,004
9,429
8,903
48631
10,560
10,122
9,705
9,320
8,924
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
10693
3,230
2,607
2,023
1,561
1,272
4970
1,502
1,210
939
727
592
5723
1,728
1,397
1,084
834
680
80+
8,089
3,604
4,485
(kontinua)
72
APENDIXU
2027
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,832,170
928,326
903,844
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
261,677
54,671
52,963
51,917
51,342
50,784
133,588
27,924
27,028
26,498
26,209
25,929
128,089
26,747
25,935
25,419
25,133
24,855
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
81,236
17,764
16,937
16,182
15,507
14,846
40357
8,868
8,419
8,028
7,689
7,353
40879
8,896
8,518
8,154
7,818
7,493
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
241121
49,955
49,033
48,130
47,365
46,638
123162
25,508
25,042
24,584
24,198
23,830
117959
24,447
23,991
23,546
23,167
22,808
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
61068
14,083
13,188
12,238
11,219
10,340
30023
6,962
6,506
6,016
5,493
5,046
31045
7,121
6,682
6,222
5,726
5,294
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
221,033
45,854
45,040
44,208
43,368
42,563
112977
23,433
23,019
22,596
22,169
21,760
108056
22,421
22,021
21,612
21,199
20,803
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
52093
9,857
9,880
10,267
10,830
11,259
25969
4,820
4,867
5,114
5,454
5,714
26124
5,037
5,013
5,153
5,376
5,545
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
200641
41,755
40,965
40,141
39,293
38,487
102562
21,345
20,941
20,519
20,085
19,672
98079
20,410
20,024
19,622
19,208
18,815
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
49,609
11,318
10,840
10,024
9,095
8,332
25103
5,767
5,512
5,078
4,577
4,169
24506
5,551
5,328
4,946
4,518
4,163
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
174527
37,704
36,948
36,344
29,474
34,057
89241
19,274
18,880
18,578
15,082
17,427
85286
18,430
18,068
17,766
14,392
16,630
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
37444
7,750
7,475
7,418
7,437
7,364
18064
3,838
3,657
3,580
3,536
3,453
19380
3,912
3,818
3,838
3,901
3,911
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
155502
34,557
33,295
31,265
29,114
27,271
79312
17,666
17,002
15,941
14,823
13,880
76190
16,891
16,293
15,324
14,291
13,391
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
29560
7,101
6,582
5,936
5,262
4,679
13620
3,296
3,034
2,729
2,416
2,145
15940
3,805
3,548
3,207
2,846
2,534
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
123181
25,954
25,158
24,649
24,029
23,391
63154
13,220
12,843
12,627
12,371
12,093
60027
12,734
12,315
12,022
11,658
11,298
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
19757
4,246
3,995
3,893
3,858
3,765
9094
1,950
1,836
1,790
1,777
1,741
10663
2,296
2,159
2,103
2,081
2,024
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
103414
22,648
21,736
20,691
19,648
18,691
52890
11,720
11,205
10,598
9,970
9,397
50524
10,928
10,531
10,093
9,678
9,294
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
12156
3,474
2,977
2,403
1,863
1,439
5606
1,603
1,373
1,107
858
665
6550
1,871
1,604
1,296
1,005
774
80+
8,151
3,604
4,547
(kontinua)
73
APENDIXU
2028
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,877,594
951,213
926,381
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
264,914
55,399
53,810
52,678
51,775
51,252
135,237
28,297
27,461
26,886
26,428
26,165
129,677
27,102
26,349
25,792
25,347
25,087
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
84,750
18,626
17,692
16,869
16,118
15,445
42215
9,361
8,827
8,381
7,992
7,654
42535
9,265
8,865
8,488
8,126
7,791
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
245026
50,725
49,909
48,986
48,086
47,320
125143
25,901
25,485
25,019
24,562
24,176
119883
24,824
24,424
23,967
23,524
23,144
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
65213
14,775
14,002
13,112
12,169
11,155
32121
7,312
6,915
6,462
5,976
5,456
33092
7,463
7,087
6,650
6,193
5,699
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
224,914
46,596
45,815
45,002
44,170
43,331
114941
23,808
23,411
22,998
22,576
22,148
109973
22,788
22,404
22,004
21,594
21,183
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
50757
10,268
9,774
9,797
10,180
10,738
25053
5,004
4,771
4,818
5,062
5,398
25704
5,264
5,003
4,979
5,118
5,340
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
204447
42,515
41,699
40,908
40,085
39,240
104488
21,732
21,311
20,906
20,486
20,053
99959
20,783
20,388
20,002
19,599
19,187
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
51,899
11,141
11,176
10,702
9,899
8,981
26261
5,643
5,680
5,428
5,002
4,508
25638
5,498
5,496
5,274
4,897
4,473
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
178621
38,423
37,631
36,877
36,273
29,417
91277
19,633
19,228
18,836
18,534
15,046
87344
18,790
18,403
18,041
17,739
14,371
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
37706
8,200
7,601
7,333
7,277
7,295
18372
4,091
3,751
3,575
3,499
3,456
19334
4,109
3,850
3,758
3,778
3,839
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
161956
33,989
34,486
33,227
31,201
29,053
82667
17,387
17,625
16,963
15,904
14,788
79289
16,602
16,861
16,264
15,297
14,265
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
31324
7,185
6,890
6,385
5,759
5,105
14433
3,354
3,183
2,929
2,635
2,332
16891
3,831
3,707
3,456
3,124
2,773
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
126764
27,211
25,892
25,098
24,591
23,972
64776
13,847
13,185
12,810
12,595
12,339
61988
13,364
12,707
12,288
11,996
11,633
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
19721
4,497
4,043
3,803
3,705
3,673
9005
2,050
1,845
1,736
1,693
1,681
10716
2,447
2,198
2,067
2,012
1,992
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
107793
23,327
22,579
21,671
20,628
19,588
55406
12,057
11,681
11,169
10,562
9,937
52387
11,270
10,898
10,502
10,066
9,651
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
13417
3,531
3,204
2,746
2,216
1,720
6143
1,621
1,467
1,256
1013
786
7274
1,910
1,737
1,490
1,203
934
80+
8,372
3,675
4,697
(kontinua)
74
APENDIXU
2029
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,923,430
974,304
949,126
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
268,266
55,948
54,561
53,531
52,539
51,687
136,948
28,578
27,845
27,322
26,818
26,385
131,318
27,370
26,716
26,209
25,721
25,302
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
88,552
19,520
18,553
17,622
16,802
16,055
44305
9,898
9,320
8,787
8,343
7,957
44247
9,622
9,233
8,835
8,459
8,098
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
248722
51,195
50,680
49,863
48,942
48,042
127016
26,137
25,879
25,462
24,998
24,540
121706
25,058
24,801
24,401
23,944
23,502
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
69126
15,371
14,692
13,924
13,038
12,101
34100
7,611
7,264
6,869
6,419
5,937
35026
7,760
7,428
7,055
6,619
6,164
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
228,710
47,279
46,556
45,777
44,965
44,133
116863
24,154
23,786
23,390
22,978
22,555
111847
23,125
22,770
22,387
21,987
21,578
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
50764
11,078
10,182
9,694
9,715
10,095
24869
5,411
4,953
4,724
4,769
5,012
25895
5,667
5,229
4,970
4,946
5,083
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
208268
43,284
42,458
41,643
40,852
40,031
106420
22,120
21,698
21,277
20,872
20,453
101848
21,164
20,760
20,366
19,980
19,578
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
53,012
10,626
11,003
11,038
10,569
9,776
26759
5,330
5,559
5,596
5,347
4,927
26253
5,296
5,444
5,442
5,222
4,849
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
188097
39,176
38,351
37,559
36,808
36,203
96068
20,014
19,588
19,183
18,793
18,490
92029
19,162
18,763
18,376
18,015
17,713
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
38679
8,840
8,045
7,458
7,195
7,141
19008
4,424
4,000
3,667
3,496
3,421
19671
4,416
4,045
3,791
3,699
3,720
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
161995
29,360
33,920
34,417
33,161
31,137
82736
15,012
17,347
17,585
16,925
15,867
79259
14,348
16,573
16,832
16,236
15,270
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
32566
7,118
6,974
6,687
6,198
5,589
15046
3,358
3,240
3,074
2,829
2,545
17520
3,760
3,734
3,613
3,369
3,044
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
131543
28,991
27,147
25,831
25,040
24,534
67057
14,753
13,812
13,151
12,777
12,564
64486
14,238
13,335
12,680
12,263
11,970
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
20197
4,910
4,284
3,851
3,622
3,530
9161
2,230
1,940
1,746
1,643
1,602
11036
2,680
2,344
2,105
1,979
1,928
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
111850
23,908
23,257
22,512
21,606
20,567
57624
12,303
12,017
11,643
11,133
10,528
54226
11,605
11,240
10,869
10,473
10,039
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
14247
3,446
3,261
2,958
2,536
2,046
6473
1,566
1,485
1,344
1150
928
7774
1,880
1,776
1,614
1,386
1,118
80+
8,836
3,851
4,985
(kontinua)
75
APENDIXU
2030
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
1,969,587
997,552
972,035
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
271,685
56,415
55,135
54,288
53,395
52,452
138,695
28,817
28,139
27,709
27,254
26,776
132,990
27,598
26,996
26,579
26,141
25,676
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
92,713
20,497
19,445
18,480
17,554
16,737
46676
10,488
9,855
9,279
8,748
8,306
46037
10,009
9,590
9,201
8,806
8,431
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
252137
51,633
51,149
50,637
49,819
48,899
128748
26,359
26,114
25,858
25,440
24,977
123389
25,274
25,035
24,779
24,379
23,922
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
72689
15,979
15,287
14,609
13,847
12,967
35892
7,913
7,562
7,216
6,824
6,377
36797
8,066
7,725
7,393
7,023
6,590
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
232,429
48,002
47,240
46,518
45,740
44,929
118743
24,519
24,132
23,765
23,369
22,958
113686
23,483
23,108
22,753
22,371
21,971
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
52353
12,018
10,987
10,099
9,614
9,635
25549
5,889
5,357
4,904
4,677
4,722
26804
6,129
5,630
5,195
4,937
4,913
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
212099
44,084
43,228
42,402
41,587
40,798
108358
22,526
22,086
21,664
21,243
20,839
103741
21,558
21,142
20,738
20,344
19,959
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
52,699
9,992
10,497
10,868
10,903
10,439
26461
4,950
5,252
5,477
5,514
5,268
26238
5,042
5,245
5,391
5,389
5,171
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
191579
39,968
39,103
38,279
37,490
36,739
97815
20,414
19,968
19,543
19,140
18,750
93764
19,554
19,135
18,736
18,350
17,989
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
40575
9,625
8,676
7,894
7,319
7,061
20079
4,836
4,327
3,911
3,586
3,419
20496
4,789
4,349
3,983
3,733
3,642
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
166733
36,134
29,301
33,855
34,348
33,095
85167
18,448
14,978
17,309
17,545
16,887
81566
17,686
14,323
16,546
16,803
16,208
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
33164
6,972
6,911
6,770
6,493
6,018
15404
3,326
3,245
3,130
2,970
2,733
17760
3,646
3,666
3,640
3,523
3,285
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
137836
31,072
28,924
27,085
25,771
24,984
70187
15,830
14,716
13,777
13,118
12,746
67649
15,242
14,208
13,308
12,653
12,238
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
21265
5,378
4,681
4,083
3,670
3,453
9593
2,435
2,112
1,837
1,653
1,556
11672
2,943
2,569
2,246
2,017
1,897
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
115485
24,470
23,838
23,188
22,446
21,543
59472
12,528
12,263
11,978
11,606
11,097
56013
11,942
11,575
11,210
10,840
10,446
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
14593
3,315
3,186
3,013
2,735
2,344
6577
1,493
1,436
1,361
1,233
1054
8016
1,822
1,750
1,652
1,502
1,290
80+
9,553
4,136
5,417
(kontinua)
76
APENDIXU
2040
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
2,462,381
1,245,431
1,216,950
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
307,304
63,709
62,373
61,303
60,403
59,516
156,918
32,555
31,847
31,299
30,836
30,381
150,386
31,154
30,526
30,004
29,567
29,135
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
134,182
30,333
28,198
26,362
25,047
24,242
68099
15,410
14,302
13,363
12,703
12,321
66083
14,923
13,896
12,999
12,344
11,921
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
286,421
58,789
58,102
57,325
56,529
55,676
146213
30,010
29,660
29,263
28,857
28,423
140208
28,779
28,442
28,062
27,672
27,253
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
111302
23,698
23,030
22,344
21,577
20,653
56995
12,078
11,788
11,478
11,086
10,565
54307
11,620
11,242
10,866
10,491
10,088
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
268,110
54,941
54,391
53,762
52,957
52,059
136847
28,047
27,767
27,438
27,027
26,568
131263
26,894
26,624
26,324
25,930
25,491
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
87950
19,592
18,510
17,524
16,580
15,744
43836
9,945
9,297
8,711
8,168
7,715
44114
9,647
9,213
8,813
8,412
8,029
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
250043
51,248
50,746
50,215
49,381
48,453
127543
26,149
25,888
25,616
25,182
24,708
122500
25,099
24,858
24,599
24,199
23,745
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
67,254
14,957
14,219
13,510
12,726
11,842
32655
7,303
6,929
6,559
6,157
5,707
34599
7,654
7,290
6,951
6,569
6,135
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
229735
47,532
46,734
45,981
45,163
44,325
117062
24,231
23,821
23,429
23,006
22,575
112673
23,301
22,913
22,552
22,157
21,750
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
46608
10,891
9,866
8,982
8,467
8,402
22169
5,219
4,698
4,249
4,006
3,997
24439
5,672
5,168
4,733
4,461
4,405
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
208850
43,457
42,591
41,752
40,924
40,126
106321
22,128
21,684
21,258
20,829
20,422
102529
21,329
20,907
20,494
20,095
19,704
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
43907
8,598
8,892
9,060
8,938
8,419
21278
4,128
4,305
4,406
4,355
4,084
22629
4,470
4,587
4,654
4,583
4,335
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
188182
39,286
38,422
37,601
36,810
36,063
95780
19,995
19,556
19,136
18,738
18,355
92402
19,291
18,866
18,465
18,072
17,708
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
30541
7,604
6,672
5,913
5,340
5,012
14407
3,662
3,178
2,789
2,483
2,295
16134
3,942
3,494
3,124
2,857
2,717
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
163255
35,443
28,713
33,150
33,601
32,348
83165
18,046
14,638
16,904
17,117
16,460
80090
17,397
14,075
16,246
16,484
15,888
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
20895
4,778
4,533
4,245
3,893
3,446
9072
2,146
1,994
1,830
1,655
1,447
11823
2,632
2,539
2,415
2,238
1,999
80+
17,842
7,071
10,771
(kontinua)
77
APENDIXU
2050
Tinan
Total
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
Tinan
Sexu rua
hotu
Mane
Feto
3,016,469
1,523,239
1,493,230
0-4
0
1
2
3
4
348,395
71,868
70,630
69,587
68,622
67,688
178,011
36,742
36,088
35,551
35,054
34,576
170,384
35,126
34,542
34,036
33,568
33,112
40 - 44
40
41
42
43
44
184,075
38,529
37,629
36,782
35,954
35,181
93363
19,550
19,091
18,653
18,234
17,835
90712
18,979
18,538
18,129
17,720
17,346
5-9
5
6
7
8
9
325623
66,857
66,016
65,108
64,251
63,391
166305
34,149
33,717
33,254
32,812
32,373
159318
32,708
32,299
31,854
31,439
31,018
45 - 49
45
46
47
48
49
158282
34,511
27,899
32,146
32,503
31,223
80187
17,495
14,153
16,301
16,458
15,780
78095
17,016
13,746
15,845
16,045
15,443
10 - 14
10
11
12
13
14
304,579
62,625
61,802
60,895
60,056
59,201
155477
31,982
31,551
31,085
30,651
30,208
149102
30,643
30,251
29,810
29,405
28,993
50 - 54
50
51
52
53
54
128280
29,194
27,040
25,198
23,850
22,998
64499
14,721
13,598
12,652
11,973
11,555
63781
14,473
13,442
12,546
11,877
11,443
15 - 19
15
16
17
18
19
284602
58,464
57,758
56,957
56,147
55,276
145118
29,826
29,458
29,043
28,621
28,170
139484
28,638
28,300
27,914
27,526
27,106
55 - 59
55
56
57
58
59
104,051
22,384
21,639
20,882
20,054
19,092
52482
11,266
10,924
10,565
10,135
9,592
51569
11,118
10,715
10,317
9,919
9,500
20 - 24
20
21
22
23
24
265634
54,511
53,932
53,265
52,423
51,503
135227
27,772
27,469
27,113
26,676
26,197
130407
26,739
26,463
26,152
25,747
25,306
60 - 64
60
61
62
63
64
79554
17,993
16,863
15,839
14,860
13,999
38738
8,956
8,288
7,687
7,136
6,671
40816
9,037
8,575
8,152
7,724
7,328
25 - 29
25
26
27
28
29
246983
50,661
50,149
49,602
48,754
47,817
125540
25,761
25,494
25,214
24,774
24,297
121443
24,900
24,655
24,388
23,980
23,520
65 - 69
65
66
67
68
69
57658
13,151
12,337
11,569
10,742
9,859
27043
6,230
5,821
5,423
5,005
4,564
30615
6,921
6,516
6,146
5,737
5,295
30 - 34
30
31
32
33
34
226497
46,888
46,090
45,332
44,511
43,676
115041
23,817
23,413
23,024
22,604
22,183
111456
23,071
22,677
22,308
21,907
21,493
70 - 74
70
71
72
73
74
36534
8,905
7,890
7,018
6,465
6,256
16534
4,087
3,584
3,156
2,898
2,809
20000
4,818
4,306
3,862
3,567
3,447
35 - 39
35
36
37
38
39
205361
42,795
41,911
41,053
40,209
39,393
104245
21,728
21,278
20,841
20,407
19,991
101116
21,067
20,633
20,212
19,802
19,402
75 - 79
75
76
77
78
79
29301
6,205
6,168
6,038
5,718
5,172
13264
2,805
2,800
2,745
2,592
2,322
16037
3,400
3,368
3,293
3,126
2,850
80+
31,060
12,165
18,895
78

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