sergio schlesinger - Portada
Transcrição
sergio schlesinger - Portada
SERGIO SCHLESINGER SUPPORT Rua Morais e Vale, 111 5º andar – Centro 20021-260 Rio de Janeiro – RJ Brazil Phone: +55 21 2189 4600 Fax: +55 21 2189 4612 www.actionaid.org.br COVER PHOTO: CESAR GUILLOTEL / CG TEXTURES ActionAid Brasil NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS PUBLISHED BY SERGIO SCHLESINGER NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS SERGIO SCHLESINGER 1ST EDITION RIO DE JANEIRO, BRAZIL, 2008 New wood for old fires The fever for agrifuels TEXT Sergio Schlesinger ORIGINAL TITLE Lenha nova para a velha fornalha – A febre dos agrocombustíveis, published by FASE, 2008 (ISBN 978-85-86471-37-7). ENGLISH TRANSLATION Leah Mary Gray PUBLISHED BY ActionAid SUPPORT FDCL – Forschungs und Dokumentationszentrum Chile Lateinamerika TNI – Transnational Institute Heinrich Böll Foundation GRAPHIC DESIGN Mais Programação Visual www.maisprogramacao.com.br PRINTING WalPrint Gráfica e Editora PRINT RUN 1,500 New wood for old fires: The fever for agrifuels / Sergio Schlesinger – Rio de Janeiro : ActionAid, 2008. 104p. ISBN 978-85-89473-11-8 1. Agrifuel – Brazil 2. Bioenergy 3. Agrifuel – small farming 4. Agribusiness 5. Biodiesel 6. Ethanol 7. Soy 8. Sugarcane 9. Pulp 10. Monoculture 11. Environmental impacts 12. Social impacts I. Sergio Schlesinger This publication was carried out with financial support from the European Community. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not represent the official opinion of the European Community. The publication was produced within the framework of the cooperation project ”Handel-Entwicklung-Menschenrechte” of the Heinrich Böll Foundation, Forschungs und Dokumentationszentrum Chile Lateinamerika (FDCL) and the Transnational Institute (TNI). More information at: http://www.handel-entwicklung-menschenrechte.org CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 5 SUGARCANE 9 SOY AND BIODIESEL 37 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL 59 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS 87 INTRODUCTION The exhaustion of the world’s petroleum reserves, so often announced, is now an ever increasingly closer reality. Consumption of this commodity today far outstrips discoveries of new reserves, and has gained an even greater impulse with the rapid economic growth of the world’s most populous countries – China, and India. Ten times more petroleum is burned today worldwide, than fifty years ago. The escalation of petroleum prices as a result of this panorama seems irreversible. At the same time, the world has finally realized that global warming is a fact and that burning fossil fuels is a decisive contributing factor to this problem. From the beginning of the 21st century, the sum of these factors has stimulated the search for, and production of alternative sources of fuel made from various agricultural products, which are traditionally used as food sources. In an attempt to combat this dependency on petroleum consumption, the present economic model seeks to maintain its greatest addiction: limitless economic growth at the cost of renewable natural resources. In itself, the use of plant-based fuels is not a novelty. In the U.S. the Model T – first car manufactured by Ford – already in 1866 could be powered by ethanol made from corn. In 1900 during the Paris exhibition, the Frenchman Rudolf Diesel demonstrated that peanut oil could be used to power diesel engines. Since 1978 Brazil manufactures cars powered exclusively by ethanol. In 1986, at the height of the Proálcool program, 76% of Brazilian automobiles were equipped with motors fueled by ethanol produced from sugarcane. The recent increases in petroleum prices – and the impression that these are here to stay – has stimulated programs for the production of agrifuels worldwide. The global need for fuels necessary for the development of these programs will probably lead to radical transformations in agriculture. 5 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS The use of corn, sugarcane, soybeans, wheat, palm products, and many other plants as fuel is causing an increase in prices of various food products. The continued increase in food prices is arguable, since their relative price reduction (in comparison to those of industrialized products) is a historic tendency. However, the adverse effect of such increases at this moment in time is unquestionable, considering that over two billion people still earn less than US$ 2.00 per day. The most important among the programs to substitute agrifuels for fossil fuels, is that of the U.S, for substituting part of its gasoline consumption, to ethanol made from corn. With over one quarter of the world’s total number of cars, the U.S. plans to substitute 20% of the gasoline consumed in the country for ethanol by 2017. Towards this goal, production of ethanol in the U.S. should increase by 110% between mid-2007 and the end of 2009. It is estimated that already in 2008, the U.S. has reserved ten percent of all the corn produced in the world for its ethanol program. Since there are no suitably large areas for agricultural expansion in North America, increased corn production comes at the expense of a reduction in other crops, such as soy and cotton. Thus, the program is already affecting prices not only of soy, corn and cotton, but of other products as well. Since corn and soy are the principal components of animal feed, the prices of meat, milk and dairy products have also increased steadily. Chinese economic growth is also responsible for a greater need for these animal feed components, as traditional dietary habits are influenced by other factors. With serious environmental problems, over the last few years China gradually became an importer instead of an exporter, of soy. In 2007 China exported less than half the volume of corn exported in 2001, and in a few years it will become an importer also of this commodity. Apart from China, many other countries are also developing programs for plantbased fuels in substitution of fossil fuels, even though their land areas are not ideal for domestic production. As with ethanol, consumption of biodiesel has also caused increased international prices of many vegetable oils such as soybean, dendê-palm, sunflower seed, and others. Today the large consumer markets see Brazil as the country with the greatest potential as “world provider”, from animal to human consumption, and now also for agrifuel. Europe, China and Japan, having used up a large part of their natural resources, are focusing on Brazil as the world’s granary, where these essential resources can be obtained at low cost, in exchange for high priced industrial products, gains in the financial sector, on intellectual property, etc. The possibility that expansion of these agricultural activities may cause social and environmental problems is the cause of grave concerns. The debate regarding effects on food availability and increases in food prices already occupies major space in the media. Concerning the environmental aspect in particular, Brazil’s potential 6 INTRODUCTION importing customer countries seek assurances that they are not purchasing products raised at the cost of forest degradation – the main concern, as always, is the potential destruction of the Amazon forest. The threat to native vegetation, however, is not limited to the Amazon, or even to Brazil. In Malaysia, for example, a major portion of the original forests has been destroyed in recent years, due largely to increased world demand for dendêpalm oil, and projects for the expansion of biodiesel production and exports are already underway. Consequences for Brazil This scenario is seen by the Brazilian government as a great opportunity to significantly increase the country’s exports, with ethanol taking the lead. While it endeavors internally to concentrate the control of distribution and exports in the hands of Petrobras, ethanol sales are a priority item on the agenda for international trips of the President of the Republic. On the other hand, over the next few years, the production of biodiesel will probably be only to supply the internal market. The goal of the Brazilian government is to substitute part of the country’s diesel oil consumption for vegetable oils, starting in 2008. Although the National Program for Production and Use of Biodiesel (Programa Nacional de Produção e Uso de Biodiesel) incentivates family-owned agricultural production, the increased participation of soybean oil from large plantations in the production of biodiesel is undeniable. However, automotive petroleum derived fuels are not the only ones being substituted by renewable fuel sources. In the case of steel production, charcoal – from native or planted forests – is another energy source. Brazilian steel mills plan major investments for increasing steel production. Charcoal, which is used in other industrial sectors, is also an important Brazilian export item. Various single crop cultivations dominate Brazil’s agricultural sector. Three of these, occupying the greatest land areas, are related to the production of agrifuels, and shall be analyzed below: soybeans, sugarcane and artificial, manmade, forests – principally of eucalyptus. These cover a total area equivalent to Italy and the Netherlands together (approximately 33 million hectares). An analysis of the expansion of these cultivations cannot, by itself, reveal all the resulting impacts. Both Brazilian agricultural and cattle raising activities are enjoying rapid growth. According to the Ministry of Agriculture between 2002 and 2007 international sales of Brazilian agroindustrial products increased 135% (from US$ 24.8 billion to US$ 58.4 billion). Between January and May of 2008, agribusiness exports totaled US$ 27.2 billion, 25.3% over exports during the same period of 2007. 1 1 Exportação de agrícolas até maio cresceu 25,3%, divulga Mapa. Agência Estado, 09/06/08. 7 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Over the last few years sugarcane plantations have expanded in areas close to large consumer centers where, though land is relatively more expensive, large profit margins compensate the outlay. In the state of São Paulo production of corn and soybeans, as well as cattle raising activities have dramatically declined. However, Brazilian production of corn, soybeans and meat products increased significantly over the same period. In this study, we will analyze what overall effects the expansion of these agricultural activities have on national territory, with special emphasis on the dislocations caused by them and the effects of this process on small farmers and the environment. 8 1 SUGARCANE Traditionally used worldwide for the production of sugar, the expansion of sugarcane historically has closely followed the world population growth. Since 1970 Brazil has been using ethanol made from sugarcane as an automotive fuel. Recently, Brazil again became a large consumer of automotive ethanol with the introduction of flex-fuel for automobile engines, which allows for any proportion of gasoline/ ethanol mixture. Today, ethanol from sugarcane is considered to be the most promising substitute for automotive gasoline fuels. This is the main reason for the high rates of expansion of Brazilian sugarcane production, the characteristics and perspectives of which are analyzed in this study. As with other food products, world consumption of sugar has been growing rapidly over the last few years due to high economic growth rates in Asian countries, notably China and India. Sales of Brazilian sugar also benefited from the decision of the World Trade Organization (WTO) to eliminate sugar subsidies, following a complaint brought by Brazil, Australia and Thailand against the European Union (EU). With the defeat in the WTO, the EU will be obliged to substantially lower the guaranteed price subsidized to the sugar beet farmers until 2009. Brazil thus hopes to increase its exports to Europe and other regions traditionally supplied by that area. In Brazil, already the largest world exporter of sugarcane products, these facts have led to significant increased areas of cultivation and product manufacturing. These traditionally domestic-owned activities can now count with a strong influx of foreign capital. On the other hand, the rapid expansion of these activities have given rise to concerns in Brazil, and worldwide, for many reasons. Firstly, the impact that the 9 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS expansion of agrifuel plantations may have on food prices. As sugarcane ethanol becomes an important export item, the possible consequences for family farmers and for the environment, as a result of the territorial expansion of plantations, as well as the awful working conditions of cane cutters – are some questions that have mobilized national public opinion, with repercussions at international levels. The Brazilian government has repeatedly declared that the expansion of sugarcane plantations will not affect the Amazon or the Pantanal, neither will the production of foodstuffs suffer. At the same time, many infrastructure projects such as ethanol pipelines, are under way. It is, however, necessary to consider other indirect impacts resulting from this new sugarcane “success story”. Land prices all over Brazil in recent years have risen, and this has greatly affected rural activities. Other plantations, as well as cattle raising activities, appear to be transferred exactly to those areas the government insists will not be occupied by sugarcane plantations. In this chapter, we will present the main social and environmental impacts of the present sugarcane expansion cycle in Brazil. Production Brazil is the largest world producer of sugar and sugarcane products with approximately 30% of the world’s total harvest, followed by India, China, Thailand and Mexico (Graph 1). According to FAO estimates published in May of 2008, world production of sugar for 2007/2008 should reach 168 million tons, an increase of 1.1% over 2006/2007 production of 166.1 million tons. Global consumption was estimated at 158.2 million tons in 2008. (FAO, 2008) Three quarters of the world sugar production comes from sugarcane grown in tropical zones in the southern hemisphere. The five main producers of sugar, who are also the largest consumers of the product, were responsible for approximately 59% of global production in 2006/2007. Of this total, Brazil produced 29.7 million tons of sugar, followed by India with 25 million tons and China with 10 million tons, as shown in Graph 1 (Guarani, 2007). These numbers regarding 2007 production have meant excess offer on the international market, due to the recomposition of the harvest in traditionally large producer countries, like India and Australia. After two consecutive bad harvest years because of climatic conditions, these countries recuperated their production and productivity rates in 2007. The production of ethanol worldwide has increased more rapidly than that of sugar in recent years. The average rate of increase of 10.5% per annum since 2000 means a production of approximately 53 billion liters in 2007. Sugar production in the same period grew only 3% per year. 10 SUGARCANE GRAPH 1 Main sugarcane producers (2006/2007 crop) Source: F. O. Licht The relatively high international price of sugar, comparatively to that of the previous period, also encouraged these countries to resume their normal production levels. As a result of the higher supply, international sugar prices fell by 42.1% in 2007.1 In April of 2008, following the trend of generalized global increases in food products, the price of sugar in world markets had risen 29% in comparison with the same month in 2007. (FAO, 2008) GRAPH 2 International sugar prices 2005 to Apr/2008 Source: FAO (2008) 1 Guarani. Comportamento do Mercado de Açúcar e Etanol no 1T08. 16/04/08. 11 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS In the case of ethanol, and against all market expectations, the prices in the U.S. did not increase as much as those of gasoline. On the contrary, ethanol prices fell. What seemed to be a great opportunity for Brazilian exports, did not materialize. In May of 2008, the international price was lower than the cost of production. The reason undoubtedly was increased sugarcane production in the main producer countries allied with increased U.S. production of corn ethanol.2 Brazilian production The turnover of the sugar and ethanol sector in Brazil, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, is R$ 40 billion per annum, and generates over a million direct jobs. This sector is responsible for 2.35% of the country’s agricultural GDP and 26.5 of the Agriculture GDP. According to DIEESE, it is also one of the sectors that generates most jobs in the country – over 3.6 million direct and indirect jobs (DIEESE, 2007). Brazil produced 501.5 million tons during the 2006/2007 harvest, which closed in November 2007 (CONAB, 2008). The estimates for 2007/2008 are 558 to 580 million tons, an increase of 11.3% to 15.6%. Of this total, approximately 90% should be produced in the Central-Southern area (South, Southwest and Central-Western regions) with 10% in the North and Northeastern regions. Seven million hectares have been planted with sugarcane during 2007/2008, 23% more than for the previous harvest year, according to Conab (National Supply Company) estimates, in the first annual sugarcane survey made in November of 2007 (CONAB, 2007). The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that 13 million hectares will be planted in 2015. GRAPH 3 Brazilian production of sugarcane, sugar and ethanol Sources: Unica and Conab (2008). (*) Conab projections. 2 12 Álcool não acompanha alta do petróleo e prejudica exportação. Gazeta Mercantil, 03/06/2008. SUGARCANE Territorial distribution of production Sugarcane production is spread over 22 states. The largest producing region is the Southeast (68.4%). São Paulo state is the biggest Brazilian producer, with an estimated 319 million tons in 2007/2008, and is responsible for 58.5% of the country’s total production. The State of Paraná is second, with an estimated 46.2 million tons, followed by the State of Minas Gerais (41 million tons). Conab´s survey also showed that the states with the largest growth in land areas of sugarcane plantations are: Bahia (52%), Ceará (40%), Mato Grosso do Sul (26.8%), Paraná (26.6%) and Minas Gerais (21%). Led by Paraná, the Southern is the region will have the greatest estimated growth in production, 34%, followed by the Center-West region (22.1%). The information contained in Conab´s survey shows that the driving force for this expansion, is ethanol production. The volume foreseen is the highest ever recorded: 26 to 27 billion liters, 15 to 20% over the previous year. Sugar production should increase by 8% to 12 %, reaching approximately 34 million tons. Of the total sugarcane processed in this period, Conab estimates that nearly 53% will be for production of ethanol and 43% for sugar. TABLE 1 Brazil – Principal sugarcane producing states 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 Harvest Years State AREA (millions of ha) PRODUCTION (million t) 06/07 07/08 Var.% 06/07 07/08 Var.% SP 3,288.2 3,679.5 11.90 284.8 319.0 12.00 PR 436.0 552.0 26.60 34.1 46.2 35.30 MG 420.0 580.2 21.00 33.5 40.9 21.80 AL 402.7 412.0 2.30 25.1 27.1 7.90 GO 234.9 281.8 20.00 18.7 23.1 23.60 PE 369.6 371.5 0.50 18.9 21.1 11.80 MT 209.7 225.5 7.50 14.0 15.6 11.30 MS 160.0 202.8 26.80 12.7 16.7 32.00 Other 642.1 658.3 2.5 32.7 40.2 2.3 Total 6,163.2 6,963.6 13.00 474.8 549.9 15.80 Source: Conab (2007). Obs. Data extracted from the 3rd sugarcane survey, in November 2007. In 2008, though Conab informed that the total area foreseen was 7.6 million hectares, no data per State was published in its first survey, in April 2008. 13 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Domestic market Besides being the largest producer, Brazil is also one of the largest consumers of sugar in the world, with 11.4 million tons used in 2007. According to Guarani (2007), increased consumption in Brazil is mainly a result of greater production of industrialized food products with high sugar content. Food products, especially of soft drinks, chocolates and ice creams, are responsible for approximately 55% of the domestic sugar consumption. As for ethanol, Brazil consumed about 9.2 billion liters in 2007, approximately 50% more than in 2006.3 Brazilian legislation establishes that the percent of ethanol to be mixed with gasoline should be between 20% and 25%. The government uses this variation to stabilize domestic prices of sugar and ethanol. With the recent introduction of flexible, gas/ethanol vehicle motors, in 2003, the domestic consumption of ethanol has increased even more. Ethanol has been used as an additive in automotive fuel since the 1930´s. During the first international petroleum crisis in the mid-1970´s, the government promoted the manufacture of cars powered by hydrated ethanol, implanting the Proálcool program. As a result, the number of ethanol-powered cars increased significantly, reaching a peak of 90% of all cars sold in the country, in 1988. Demand for ethanol-driven cars fell over the next decade as a result of lower petroleum prices and the subsequent elimination of government subsidies to ethanol producers. According to The Brazilian National Association of Vehicle Manufacturers (ANFAVEA), sales of flexible fuel cars increased from 48,000 units in 2003, to over 2 million units in 2007, representing over 86% of total vehicle sales in that year.4 In April of 2008, the National Petroleum Agency (ANP) informed that for the first time in over 20 years, sales of fuel ethanol in Brazil were higher than those of gasoline, with an increase of 56% in the first two months of 2008 in comparison with the same period of 2007, while the increase in gasoline consumption was a mere 2.9%.5 Besides this, most of the cars in Brazil are still powered exclusively by gasoline, suggesting there is ample room for increasing the proportion of flexible motor vehicles in renovating Brazil’s motor vehicle fleet, with increased production of these vehicles thereby stimulating demand for hydrated ethanol. 3 Agência Brasil. Consumo de álcool combustível aumentou 49,39% em 2007. 22/02/2008. 4 Vanessa Stelzer. Montadoras vendem 2 milhões de veículos flex em 2007. Reuters, 07/01/08. 5 Nielmar de Oliveira. Consumo de álcool supera o de gasolina pela primeira vez em 20 anos. Agência Brasil, 10/04/08. 14 SUGARCANE Sugarcane in the brazilian energy matrix The increase of sugarcane which already put this commodity high on the list of Brazil’s energy sources, reached an unprecedented peak in 2007. According to preliminary data published by the National Energy Balance in April of 2008, by the EPE (Energetic Research Company), the participation of sugarcane products (such as ethanol and bagasse) in the composition of primary energy sources used in the country was 16%, second among the most sought after sources – right after petroleum and petroleum derivatives, 36.7%, and over hydroelectric power, 14.7% (EPE, 2008). GRAPH 4 Brazil’s Energy Matrix – 2007 Source: EPE (2008). International trade Sugar Sugar accounted for 46.7 million tons of international trade, in 2007, equivalent to about 41% of the total world production. Brazil’s participation in this amount in the same period was approximately 39%. The European Union with 18%, and Australia with 9% participation, being the second and third largest world exporters of sugar. 15 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS The international sugar market is strictly controlled and protected in many countries through subsidies and import restrictions. The U.S. and the European Union both stand out as having import restrictions. The latter is now under pressure from exporting countries to reduce restrictions on sugar imports. In 2003, the WTO established an arbitration panel against the European Union, at the request of Australia, Brazil and Thailand, for allegedly exceeding the subsidy limits to sugar exports established by international agreements and general market practices. The panel decided in favor of the appellant countries, and in June of 2005 the EU announced plans to lower the prices paid to sugar producers by approximately 40.6% over a period of two years, furthermore to reduce production by more than one third, up to 2012. With this action the prices paid to sugar producers would decrease from € 650 to approximately € 386 per ton. As a result, European exports could fall by 5 million tons of sugar per annum, or approximately 10% of all world sugar sales (Guarani 2007). The Brazilian sugar industry expects to sell 50% more to new markets with the end of European subsidies. Ethanol Over the last few years, international sales of ethanol have increased dramatically, mainly as a result of the rise in petroleum prices. Ethanol production is concentrated in very few countries. In 2007, the U.S. and Brazil accounted for 88% of all ethanol produced globally. Both China and the EU have increased their respective production to quite significant levels, as shown in Graph 5. GRAPH 5 Ethanol – Main producing countries in 2007 Source: RFA (2008). 16 SUGARCANE Brazilian exports benefit from the fact that the raw material used is sugarcane, resulting in much lower production costs than the ethanol produced in the U.S. from corn. Like sugar, exports of ethanol also face import tariff and non-tariff barriers, as shown in Table 2. For this reason, the Brazilian government has been striving to make international sales of agrifuels, particularly of ethanol, an important subject of trade negotiations and bilateral agreements. TABLE 2 Import tariffs applied to ethanol: main countries COUNTRY TARIFF USA Brazil Argentina Thailand India Canada European Union 2.5% + US$ 0.54/gallon 20% 20% 30% 186% US$ 0.19/gallon US$ 0.87/gallon Source: RFA (2007) Global production of sugarcane has been stimulated as a result of the projected increased use of ethanol. The EU, for example, has declared that all fuels must include 10% of renewable raw material in their composition, by 2020. GRAPH 6 Costs of ethanol production Source: Cambridge Energy Research Associates 17 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS In Japan, the mixture of 3% in gasoline is optional; in China, 10% is obligatory in nine provinces; in India, since 2006, a 5% mixture is obligatory. In January of 2007, the U.S. announced its goal for substituting 20% of automotive gasoline by ethanol up to 2017. U.S. imports of ethanol have steadily increased since 2004. Exports According to the Foreign Trade Secretariat (SECEX), Brazilian exports of sugar totaled 19.4 million tons in 2007. Compared to the exports of 18.87 million tons in 2006, this is an increase of 2.6%, and compared to 2000, they almost trebled. Due to much lower international prices in 2007 the total value of these exports fell by 17%, to US$ 5.1 billion. Brazil also became an important world exporter of fuel ethanol in the last few years. According to the Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Cattle Raising (CNA), foreign trade increased six times between 2005 and 2007. In 2007, Brazil exported 3.5 billion liters of ethanol (over 3.3% of 2006), with billing of US$ 1.478 billion (7.9%, less than in 2006). Even with the fall in prices, the value of ethanol exports practically doubled compared to 2005, US$ 765 million. The main buyers were the U.S. – 1.8 billion liters, Japan, the Netherlands and Sweden. Brazilian exports of ethanol are expected to triple within four to five years. According to Guarani (2007), in spite of the additional tariffs applied to Brazilian ethanol, exports to the U.S. increased by 577.7% in 2006 alone, compared to 2005, from 260.7 million liters to 2 billion liters of ethanol. In 2008, according to Unica projections, exports of ethanol from Brazil should reach 4.5 billion liters.6 Part of this total volume was exported directly and part through the Caribbean, under the Caribbean Basin Initiative agreement, which allows up to 7% of the U.S. needs for ethanol to enter the country free of the US$ 0.54 per gallon tariff charged to countries that are outside this agreement with the U.S. Even with the 25% tariff plus US$ 0.54 per gallon (equivalent to 3.785 liters), Brazilian ethanol cost the U.S. consumer US$ 1.75 a gallon, less expensive than the US$ 1.90 for local ethanol produced from corn, which is highly subsidized. With head offices in Bermuda, Infinity Bio-Energy, which was founded in 2006, purchased eight plants with a mowing capacity of 14.5 million tons up to April of 2008. Four of these are already in operation, two are under construction and two others at project stage. Infinity is one of the companies seeking to benefit from the CBI agreement through partnerships with firms based in Panama and the Dominican Republic, for dehydration and final processing of Brazilian ethanol.7 6 Flávia Oliveira. Exportações podem alcançar meta este ano. O Globo, 16/05/08. 7 Infinity Bio-Energy. Visão Global. April 2008. www.seminarios redetribuna.com.br/seminarios2008. 18 SUGARCANE TABLE 3 Brazilian exports of ethanol: 1998 to 2007 Year Million US$ FOB Liters (billions) Average Price (US$/m3) 1998 36 0.118 301.21 1999 66 0.407 161.70 2000 35 0.227 153.07 2001 92 0.346 266.57 2002 169 0.759 222.86 2003 158 0.757 208.56 2004 498 2.408 206.68 2005 766 2.592 295.31 2006 1,60 3.428 468.20 2007 1,47 3.541 415.14 Source: MDIC. The new investments and presence of foreign capital As often happens in the financial markets, news about new investments in sugarcane production and construction of new installations follow one another in rapid succession. According to the Valor Econômico newspaper, the National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES) foresees investments of US$ 50 billion for all phases of ethanol production in the country, between 2007 and 2011. 8 Of the estimated total, US$ 12 billion refer exclusively to projects of new production plants for sugarcane and energy from bagasse. Of this total, the BNDES may finance US$ 3.2 billion.9 The Federal Government’s for Growth Acceleration Program (PAC) forecasts investments in the order of US$ 8.1 billion for the expansion of ethanol production, including Petrobras participation. Of these, US$ 6 billion will be invested in new installations in the Southeast region: US$ 4.2 billion, or 70% of total investments, but none in the North and Northeast regions. The other US$ 2 billion will be spent on infrastructure for the transportation of ethanol. An ethanol pipeline is already projected linking Senador Canedo-GO to São Sebastião-SP. A second one, still in the study phase, will be constructed between Cuiabá-MT and the Port of Paranaguá-PR. 8 BNDES prevê R$ 100 bilhões em investimentos à produção de álcool. Valor Online, 16/04/07. www.valoronline.com.br. 9 Inovar e investir para sustentar o crescimento. Conference by Luciano Coutinho, BNDES President, May 2008. www.desenvolvimento.gov.br. Accessed on 09/06/08. 19 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS FIGURE 1 New ethanol plants Source: Ministry of Planning, Budgets and Management As of April 2008, Brazil had 370 sugar and ethanol producing units. Its sugarcane production is expected to increase from 475 million tons in 2007, to 700 million tons in 2014. This will demand investments for 114 new installations. There are 43 units presently under construction in Brazil. TABLE 4 The largest Brazilian sugar and ethanol companies – 2006 Ranking in Brazil Company / Head Offices 9 52 76 81 109 112 118 126 135 145 Copersucar / São Paulo-SP Cosan / Piracicaba-SP Usina Nova América / Tarumã-SP Usina Caeté / Maceió-AL Usina Coruripe / Coruripe-AL Santa Elisa / Sertãozinho-SP Usina da Pedra / Serrana-SP Usina Bonfim / Guariba-SP USAÇÚCAR / Maringá-PR LDC Bioenergia / São Paulo-SP Source: Exame magazine. 20 Value of Sales (in R$ million) 5 1 1 1 643,10 544,40 230,40 150,00 795,90 771,80 720,60 702,80 677,20 626,50 SUGARCANE These expectations are also based on the possibility of expanded ethanol consumption in Brazil and in other countries, especially in the U.S., where demand for ethanol may reach 132 billion liters per annum within the next ten years. This volume represents approximately three times the present world production of ethanol. According to BNDES calculations, just to supply domestic demand, Brazilian ethanol production must be increased from the present 17.5 billion liters to 24 billion in 2011. Exports of ethanol are estimated to triple between 2007 and 2012, reaching 9 billion liters. Petrobras will also heavily invest in the production and trading of ethanol. The company intends to close a deal with Japan who will substitute 3% of its gasoline consumption for ethanol, by 2010. Petrobras will also participate in the construction of ethanol installations projects and ethanol pipelines. It will also have a 10-20% participation in the capital of five new plants, with an estimated total production of one billion liters of ethanol/year.10 The sugar and ethanol industry in Brazil is today almost entirely locally owned. According to Datagro consulting estimates, in August of 2006 foreign capital participation in national companies of the sector was a mere 5.7%. In August 2007, this percentage more than doubled to 12%. 11 The profits from the production of sugarcane based ethanol have attracted an extraordinary volume of foreign capital. Thus, between 2000 and mid-2007, US$ 2.2 billion were invested in ethanol production. Exame magazine’s annual edition publishes two distinct forms of foreign capital participation: “on the one hand there are the international consortiums belonging to businessmen, and funds interested in investing capital in a promising business venture, with no direct involvement in its management and operation; on the other are the companies who already invest in the sugar-ethanol sector abroad and the trading companies who participate, or wish to participate more actively in the international ethanol trade”. The best example of the first is the Hungarian mega investor George Soros, owner of a fortune estimated at US$ 8.5 billion. He became one of the partners in Adecoagro, that purchased the Monte Alegre Plant in Minas Gerais in 2006, and is building another plant in Mato Grosso do Sul. Together with partners like James Wolfensohn, former World Bank President, and the founders of Sun Microsystems, Vinod Khosla, and America Online, Steve Case, Brenco will invest US$ 2.2 billion in the construction of ten plants. 21 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS On the part of companies, the interest of foreign groups was aroused even before the explosion of internal demand for ethanol thanks to the success of cars with flexible fuel motors. The first to show interest were the French Tereos and Louis Dreyfus, in 2000. In February of 2007, the Louis Dreyfus group, who already controls the plants of Luciânia, in Minas Gerais, Cresciumal and São Carlos, in São Paulo, purchased four plants of the Pernambuco group Tavares de Melo, and also started building a fifth unit in Mato Grosso do Sul through its Louis Dreyfus Commodities Bioenergia (LDC). Tereos, that presently owns 6.3% of Cosan shares, and may still this year increase its share participation in that company, also has a 47.5% share in Franco-Brasileira de Açúcar (FBA) and 100% of Açúcar Guarani. Cosan purchased Esso in 2008, for US$ 826 million. An increasing number of foreign groups interested in participating in this promising sector, followed the example of the French pioneer groups, among them large multinational groups active in the agribusiness sector, like Cargill. In June of 2006, Cargill, purchased the Central Energética do Vale do Sapucaí (Cevasa), located in Patrocínio Paulista, interior of the State of São Paulo for R$ 75 million, becoming majority shareholder. FIGURE 1 Where the money comes from Who the main foreign investors are GROUP PROFILE BUSINESS WITH ETHANOL Adecoagro Active in milk, meat, grains, sugar, and ethanol sectors. Its main partner is the Hungarian investor, George Soros Owns a plant in the State of Minas Gerais and is constructing another in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul. Plans to invest R$ 1.6 billion up to 2015 Brenco Investment fund headed by former Petrobras President, Henri Philippe Reichstul Has US$ 2 billion to invest in ethanol plants in the Midwest region Cargill American group, one of the world´s largest grain and food producers Bought 63% of Cevasa shares, a plant owned by Mauricio Biagi Filho, in Patrocinio Paulista (SP) Global Foods Merged with the Santa Elisa group to create National Company of Sugar and Alcohol (CNAA) Plans to invest R$ 2 billion in the construction of four plants in the Staes of Goiás and Minas Gerais Tereos Group With head offices in Lille, France, it is one of the largest European sugar producers Owns 100% of Açúcar Guarani, 47.5% of Franco Brasileira de Açúcar (FBA) and 3% of Cosan Source: Exame magazine, June 2007. www.portalexame.abril.com.br. 22 SUGARCANE Other groups interested in a share of the Brazilian market are Pacific Ethanol, whose billionaire shareholder is Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, the German group NordZucker SudZucker, active in the European sugar market, and BHL from India, owner of sugar plants in that country. According to Datagro, “of the ten largest Brazilian companies in the sector, four already have foreign capital participation: Cosan, Bonfim, LDC Bioenergia and Guarani. A fifth company, Santa Elisa, recently entered into partnership with the American group Global Foods to form the National Company of Sugar and Alcohol, with plans to invest R$ 2 billion in the construction of four production units in Goiás and Minas Gerais”. 12 KPMG Consulting informs that, of the nine joint ventures and purchases in the sector in 2007, six involve foreign groups. The same is true for business ventures in 2006, with the same number of foreign groups participating. In the midst of this euphoric scenario notwithstanding, Benedito Rosa do Espírito Santo, a researcher of Ipea – Applied Economics Research Institute (Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada), warns that the nascent foreign market is still “unstable” and will suffer “spectacular changes” in the medium term due to the influence of the technology of ethanol production from cellulose. He affirms that “should a crisis occur along the way, there will be enormous excess production and a high level of vulnerability”.13 New applications for sugarcane During this study, we noted that the estimates for the expansion of sugarcane plantations do not take into consideration any applications other than sugar and ethanol. However, the end of the petroleum era – or simply the rise in prices – will demand the creation of alternatives for a number of goods. Today the raw material used for producing practically all the polyethylene in the world is naphtha, a petroleum derivative.14 To this end, according to the newspaper O Estado de São Paulo, Dow Chemical will set up a subsidiary with Crystalsev (a Brazilian sugar and ethanol trading company) in order to build the world’s first integrated ethanol-chemical complex, with sugarcane as the basic raw material. Construction of the project, located in the Center-Southern region, will begin in 2008, and operations will start in 2011. The objective is to manufacture 350,000 tons per annum of polyethylene, one of 12 Altamiro Borges. O etanol e a invasão estrangeira. ADITAL, 27/06/07. Available at www.adital.com.br. 13 Ipea vê exagero no apetite por etanol e recomenda foco no mercado doméstico. Valor Econômico, 08/06/07. 14 Agnaldo Brito. Dow Chemical e Crystalsev farão plástico a partir de cana. O Estado de São Paulo, 20/07/07. 23 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS the most important resins used in the manufacture of plastics. 8 million tons of sugarcane will be necessary to produce 700 million liters of ethanol. This is not the first such initiative in the sector. A similar Project was announced in June 2006 by Braskem, the largest Latin American petrochemical company.15 Territorial expansion of plantations There are many estimates regarding the amount of acreage to be planted with sugarcane in years to come. According to the Institute for Agricultural Economy (IEA) – an agency linked to the São Paulo Agriculture and Supply Secretariat –, in 2015/16 sugar plantations in Brazil may cover 12.2 million hectares, processing 902.8 million tons of sugarcane and producing 26 billion liters of ethanol.16 This land area corresponds to almost double the acreage planted with sugarcane in 2007/2008. The BNDES foresees that Brazil may play a decisive role towards the global 10% goal of gasoline substitution (220 billion liters). So that Brazil can capture 50% of this market, its production of ethanol will have to reach approximately 110 billion liters, seven times more than the present level. In a simplified calculation, which accounts for the present levels of productivity and profits from ethanol production, Horacio Carvalho estimates that there must be 28 million hectares of plantations (Carvalho, 2007). This area is approximately equal to the total acreage of soya and sugarcane plantations in Brazil, in 2007. For Benedito Rosa do Espírito Santo, a researcher of Ipea, the land area planted with sugarcane, when compared with the 18 main crops in the country will expand from 12.7% in 2007 to 17% in 2013/14. By his calculations, the percentage of land destined for ethanol production will increase from 6.6% to 12% of the total crop area in the same period. The Correio Braziliense newspaper also describes the advance of sugarcane in the Central-Western region as a whole,17 where areas of pastures, soybeans, corn and cotton plantations are giving way to sugarcane crops. The town of Senador Canedo (GO), 18 km from Goiânia, is a good example of this accelerated expansion. Though producing no ethanol, it is an important center for the distribution of fuels. With the news that Petrobras will invest US$ 750 million in building an ethanol pipeline linking the town to Paulínia (SP), Canedo lives in expectation of being transformed into one of the world’s largest redistribution centers. In 2012, the transport capacity of the ethanol duct will reach 8 billion liters. 15 EUA e Brasil esperam produzir álcool a partir da cana-de-açúcar. Jornal Última Hora, 19/07/07. 16 Produção de cana poderá superar 900 milhões de toneladas em 2015/16. JornalCana, October 2006. www.jornalcana.com.br. 17 Luciano Pires. Cana muda eixo da economia no Centro-Oeste. Correio Braziliense, 29/04/07. 24 SUGARCANE FIGURE 2 Location of sugar and ethanol plants in Brazil Source: Interdisciplinary Nucleus of Strategic Planning (Nipe) Some Municipalities and States start defensive action against sugarcane expansion In the absence of any planning of land use or study of possible impacts on the part of the federal government, some municipalities located in the areas of sugar crop expansion are elaborating their own legislation in order to regulate and minimize the possible negative effects of this expansion. The euphoria prevalent in Senador Canedo is in stark contrast to the concerns in Rio Verde, a municipality in the State of Goiás. According to its mayor, Paulo Roberto Cunha, where sugarcane is planted, jobs “are fewer and more difficult to find”. Recently, as informed by the Correio Braziliense, the town’s authorities regulated this activity, determining that only 10% of its arable land could be occupied by sugarcane plantations. The municipality is concerned in maintaining the cultivation of existing crops such as corn, cotton and soybeans, that supply the Perdigão industrial complex and generate more jobs and taxes in the region. 25 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS In Sacramento, located in the State of Minas Gerais, legislation approved by the Chamber of City Councilmen in 2006 limits the sugar plantations to 20% of the municipality’s total land area. Among other norms, it also establishes a minimum distance to springs, licensing norms, and forbids the clearing of crushed by burning in areas less than five kilometers from any town.18 In Mato Grosso do Sul, the state government restricts the planting of sugarcane in the Paraguay river basin. The São Paulo state government suspended receipt of requests for the installation or expansion of sugar and ethanol plants for a period of 120 days, when it observed that there was an exaggerated increase of requests for the installation of new plants, and therefore decided to carry out a careful assessment of the effects of this expansion. The decision also has another objective: to evaluate if the licenses are being used as an excuse to sell out to international groups or if they are really for investment purposes. The government is greatly concerned that sugarcane may become an exclusive crop in São Paulo. 19 The states of Goiás and Paraná also plan to increase controls on the expansion of sugar plantations. In the case of Paraná, the government announced the creation of an agricultural zone for sugarcane, in order to prevent its expansion into other crop areas and forests. Sugarcane in the Amazon? The fast growing expansion of sugarcane plantations in Brazil, as well as the possibility that ethanol may become one of the most important commodities on the international market, has given rise to grave misgivings both in Brazil and other countries, especially in Europe. The main focus of these concerns is the Amazon. It is undoubtedly because of these concerns that President Lula in his speech in Brussels on the occasion of the International Conference on Biofuels, in July 2007, declared that “if the Amazon was suitable for planting sugarcane, the Portuguese when they introduced its cultivation in Brazil so many centuries ago, would have planted it there”. President Lula stated that sugarcane plantations were located far from the Amazon that has no suitable land areas for this crop. That same day, journalist Altino Machado pointed out the President’s error: “Lula created an embarrassing situation when he repeated misguided, contrary, information received from his Political Advisors. There are already large installations in the Amazon, in Presidente Figueiredo (AM), Ulianópolis (PA), Arraias (TO), and 18 Lei limita a 20% a área a ser plantada de cana-de-açúcar no município. O Estado do Triângulo, 09/07/06. 19 Guilherme Barros. SP suspende pedidos para a instalação de usinas de álcool. Folha de São Paulo, 16/05/08. 26 SUGARCANE another half dozen in Mato Grosso. According to the last Conab survey of May 2008, last year sugarcane production in the region known as “Amazônia Legal”, encompassing areas in the States of Mato Grosso, Tocantins, Maranhão, Amazonas and Pará”. 20 Besides which, still according to Altino Machado, during this same period, three new processing plants were either being built or being projected: Álcool Verde plant, in Acre, was already operational. Two other plants are planned – one on the BR-364 interstate, outside Rio Branco towards Porto Velho (RO), and another in the municipality of Capixaba, in the State of Acre, on the BR-317 interstate highway, called the Pacific Highway.21 The day before this, the Diário do Pará newspaper had published an article showing that the Ministry of Labor, in a single operation to suppress slave jobs in the country, found 1,108 persons working in subhuman conditions on a farm owned by Pagrisa (Pará Pastoril e Agrícola S.A.), in Ulianópolis. The workers slept in overcrowded quarters and worked in cutting and gathering sugarcane.22 In fact the survey data for the period 2007/08 (Conab, 2007) shows that sugarcane production in “Amazônia Legal” increased from 17.6 to 19.3 million tons between 2006 and 2007. In the State of Mato Grosso, for example, there was an expansion of 10% in areas of sugarcane plantations, while in the State of Tocantins, the increase was 13% and in the Amazon, 8%. Impacts on the environment The repercussions of this article as well as the realization, on the part of the government and the sector’s businessmen that the entry into new markets for ethanol would require an environmental certification, provoked immediate actions from the government. On July 17, 2007, the Minister for Agriculture, Reinhold Stephanes, announced that the Brazilian government would forbid the planting of sugarcane in the Amazon and the Pantanal. The Minister also informed that sugarcane cultivation will be forbidden in areas the government considers unsuitable for environmental reasons, or where the plantations may conflict with other food crops. Other areas may be specific regions in the Cerrado (savannah-like vegetation) or Pampa Gaúcho. 23 20 Altino Machado. Lula erra em Bruxelas ao negar cana-de-açúcar na Amazônia. Amigos da Terra Amazônia, 06/07/07. www.amazônia.org.br. 21 Blog of Altino Machado, 20/07/07. www.altino.blogspot.com. 22 Recorde: fiscalização resgata 1.108 “semi-escravos” de fazenda em Ulianópolis. Diário do Pará, 03/07/07. 23 Eliane Oliveira e Luiza Damé. Governo reage a pressões e decide proibir plantio de cana na Amazônia e no Pantanal. O Globo, 18/07/07. 27 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS On the same occasion, the Minister informed that the government will carry out an ecological and economic zoning map (ZEE), to be concluded in July of 2008, that will designate permissible areas for sugarcane plantations as well as those where incentives will be given for this crop, such as an additional official rural credit and fiscal exemption. “The map will indicate where sugarcane may be planted, and the areas will incentives for planting, such as degraded pasture land”, he said. The ZEE will take into consideration the climate and soil conditions in each micro region in the country.24 The Minister also declared areas in the Atlantic Forest and indigenous reservations will be off limits. The areas where sugarcane planting are to be encouraged are pastures, whether degraded or not; in this case, sugarcane plantations will be allowed in the Amazon and the Pantanal regions also. These measures should benefit both producers and exporters. “The entire process, from planting to the quality of ethanol produced, will receive socio-environmental certification”, declared Stephanes. The measures do not include already existing plantations. For this purpose, the government launched the Brazilian Biofuel Certification Program, with a view to supporting the exports of agrifuels through a process of voluntary certification, showing aspects of the product’s quality, level of energy content and impurities, as well as production process environmental and social sustainability. Accessing the Embrapa-Cana internet site, however, shows there is cause for concern with regard to the parameters on which the government could rely when elaborating a zoning map which considers the effective impacts on the environment observed up to now in Brazil. Titled “The Impact of sugarcane on the environment”, as follows: “With the exception of a few studies carried out by Embrapa Satellite Monitoring, there has been little solid, wide ranging studies to evaluate the environmental impact (AIA – Analysis of Environmental Impact) of the present location of sugarcane plantations. There are no known other evaluation studies of environmental impact of the spatial/temporal evolution of land use in sugarcane areas over, for example, the last 30 years. Regarding the analysis of environmental impacts of the techniques and technologies used in sugar and ethanol production – which include the burning of dried sugarcane plant residue – three subsystems were profoundly altered with the implantation of the PROALCOOL Program, in S. Paulo and should be considered simultaneously: the planting of sugarcane 24 Mauro Zanatta. Governo vai proibir o plantio de cana na Amazônia e no Pantanal. Valor Econômico, 18/07/07. 28 SUGARCANE (agriculture subsystem), its transformation into sugar and ethanol (industrial subsystems) and lastly, transportation subsystems. The overall environmental and socio-economic consequences of these changes in the regions directly or indirectly affected by them, in spite of their importance and magnitude for the country, are still unknown. There is no known adequate evaluation study of the environmental impacts of sugarcane production, not even a pilot anywhere in S. Paulo or in Brazil, as far as any knowledge exists.”25 However, wherever it is present, the expansion of sugarcane cultivation tends to consolidate the economic model which dominates Brazilian agriculture. This model is firmly established in large areas of monocultures, in the artificiality of activities through cultivation of genetically modified crops, industrial fertilizers, intensive use of toxic herbicides and substances, heavy mechanization and usage of agricultural aviation (Carvalho, 2007). This model is associated with a long list of damaging environmental impacts, such as contamination of waters an soil by agro-toxics and herbicides, compacting of the soil as a result of heavy agricultural machine use, destruction of native forest areas, air pollution due to burning of sugarcane plantations and destruction of the biodiversity. As described by Laschefski and Assis (2006), the burning of sugarcane plantations which occurs in approximately 80% of cultivated areas, is the most visible problem to the environment caused by the national sugar-ethanol sector. These burnings are done to facilitate manual cutting of sugarcane, reduce transportation costs and compensate losses of up to 20% of the harvest. The gas emissions resulting from these burnings (carbon dioxide and monoxide, methane and other gases) together with aerosols and particulate elements greatly influence climate conditions and may contaminate more distant regions. As a result, these burnings not only represent a grave environmental impact, but are also causing health problems in the populations of regions in the vicinity of sugarcane plantations. Impacts to family farmers The valorization of land in Brazil and especially in the main areas of sugarcane expansion, is already displacing not only large agricultural and animal husbandry activities, but also those of family farmers. According to Benedito Rosa26, “this may cause impacts on the production of 250,000 hectares in the regions of the Minas Gerais Triangle, south of Maranhão, 25 Available in www.cana.cnpm.embrapa.br. Accessed on 11/10/07. 26 Ipea vê exagero no apetite por etanol e recomenda foco no mercado doméstico. Valor Econômico, 08/06/07. 29 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS southeastern Piauí, northern Tocantins and northeastern Pará”. In his words, sugarcane plantations may increase from 300,000 to 800,000 hectares in Goiás. “Today, the area planted already corresponds to 160% that of corn in Goiás”. In São Paulo, the difference reaches 300%. “In the interior of the state, the hectare which used to cost R$ 4.7 thousand in 2001 now is worth R$ 10.2 thousand”, in 2007". The eagerness for sugarcane based ethanol production is the main reason for the significant rise in land prices in 2007 in many regions of the country. The O Globo27 newspaper informs from July of 2006 to June of 2007, the average value of land in Brazil was 11.64%. Land values increased significantly exactly in the regions of the greatest sugarcane expansion: the Southeast (17%), Center-West (12.2%) and South (11.64%). In Araraquara, in the interior of São Paulo state, grain crops and cattle raising are being substituted by sugarcane crops, causing a 70% increase in land prices in this period. The expansion of land cultivated with sugarcane, and the consequent increase in land prices, are pushing other crops and pasturelands to new areas. According to the IEA-SP (Institute for Agriculture Economy), this was a 54% increase, between 2002 and 2008. 28 The preferred regions are the Minas Gerais Triangle, south of Goiás, and east of Mato Grosso do Sul. Besides these, Paraná, Tocantins, Maranhão, Pará and Bahia have also expanded their sugarcane production. The land occupied by sugarcane in the region of Araraquara doubled between 2001 and 2007, reaching approximately 480,000 hectares, between new and already occupied land areas, according to a preliminary survey carried out by the Araraquara Regional Agricultural Development Agency (EDR), of the São Paulo State Agricultural Secretariat. Many crops typical of the region such as oranges and coffee, as well as cattle raising, have been substituted by sugarcane plantations. Some reflexes of this rapid and continuous expansion are already being felt in retail prices as, for example milk, which increased about 50% by mid 2007. Consumers are already paying more for other basic foodstuffs, such as rice, black beans and corn. According to Paulo Cavasin of the EDR29, “Milk prices rose because there is a lack of pastures in the state. Where there was cattle, today there is a sea of sugarcane, and this will also happen with other crops. 27 Aguinaldo Novo. Produção de etanol faz preço da terra ter valorização histórica no Brasil. O Globo, 07/06/07. 28 Área agrícola ocupada pela cana-de-açúcar no Estado de São Paulo cresceu 54% desde 2002 e expansão ainda continua em SP. Folha de São Paulo, 01/06/08. 29 Fernanda Manécolo. Área de plantação de cana duplicou nos últimos sete anos. Tribuna Impressa de Araraquara, 16/07/07. 30 SUGARCANE The expansion of sugarcane plantation areas in São Paulo is also concentrating production in the hands of large plants and suppliers, eliminating small producers. According to a study carried out by Pedro Ramos, professor and researcher of the State University of Campinas (Unicamp), today only 25% of the cane crushed in processing plants comes from independent suppliers. The other 75% are produced by the plants themselves.30 Among independent producers, the number of small producers also decreased. In 1995/96, 27.6% of the sugarcane producers supplied up to 4,000 tons to plants. In 2005/06, this percentage decreased 18%. The participation of suppliers producing 10,000 tons or more increased from 53.2% to 64.9%, in the same period. It can also be foreseen that increased mechanization will accelerate this process. With the announcement of approximately 90 new investment projects for installations all over the country, the sugarcane planters are migrating from their regions of origin to accompany the expansion of plants, according to Manoel Ortolan, President of the Organization of Cane Producers in the Center-South Region of Brazil (Orplana)31. “There is a still disorganized migration of producers to the west of São Paulo state and to the Center-West.” Orplana still does not have a map showing this movement, but informs that a good many producers are buying and leasing land in pasture areas. “The number of sugarcane producers is on the rise. There are many small grain farmers interested in cultivating sugarcane,” he said. The areas close to plants already in operation or under construction are rapidly valorizing. The price of land within a 30 Km radius from these plants has increased by four times the price before the appearance of the installations. Still according to Orplana, leasing is the most common practice in the partnership between landowners and plants, which also contributes towards land price increases. In leasing his land, the owner does not have to pay for the planting and receives a contracted sum (or receives for production by hectare or on the actual harvest). In Goiás, there are cases of a hectare being leased for up to R$ 30,000. In Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, prices vary from R$ 10,000 to R$ 15,000. The situation in the Northeast According to the O Globo newspaper, writing on the abovementioned subject, the values of land areas destined for sugarcane production in the Northeast, especially the Zona da Mata in the State of Alagoas, increased 84% when, on average, land 30 Mauro Zafalon. Pressionado a produzir mais, trabalhador atua cerca de 12 anos, como na época da escravidão. Folha de São Paulo, 01/05/07. 31 Fornecedores de cana se preparam para expansão do setor. JornalCana, outubro de 2006. www.jornalcana.com.br. 31 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS values in the region are much lower: 8.6% between mid 2006 and 2007. Sugarcane production in the region has practically not changed in the last ten years: it decreased from 60.47 to 55.34 million tons between 1990 and 2007. Cane production costs in the Northeast are much higher, since part of its cultivation is on steep slopes where the use of machines is difficult and making it labor intensive. Thus, the Northeast, which is responsible for 13% of national cane production, (Conab, 3rd survey, 2007) generates 35% of jobs in this activity. Many northeast producers have started sugarcane and ethanol production in the Minas Gerais Triangle, São Paulo, Goiás and Mato Grosso. According to the Folha de São Paulo, the period between harvests in the Northeast – from March to September – means unemployment and the threat of hunger for 100,000 rural workers in the States of Pernambuco and Alagoas. The mayor of São Luiz do Quitunde, in Alagoas, Cícero Cavalcante, declares that there is 80% unemployment in the municipality during this period.32 In Pernambuco, according to Pastoral Land Commission (CPT), since the beginning of the 1990´s, approximately 200,000 jobs have been eliminated. Approximately 120,000 people who lived on small farms on land owned by cane processing plants and producers, and planted manioc, corn and fruit to survive, lost their homes and livelihoods.33 In São Paulo also, the independent cane suppliers lost ground due to the increased concentration of production by large plants. Up to the end of 1990, half the cane crushed for sugar and ethanol production in the Northeast was supplied by independent producers. Today, their participation in total production is approximately 30%, according to the Folha de São Paulo. Arnoldo Campos, one of the principal managers of biodiesel program in the Ministry for Agrarian Development, informs that the Ministry is planning to enter the debate on ethanol in defense of the entry of independent producers in this market. For Arnoldo Campos this is more complicated than the program for biodiesel due to the logistics of ethanol, since sugarcane is a highly perishable crop and cannot be stocked like grains for production of biodiesel. “However, we are looking for solutions, such as small sugar mills that could pre-process the raw material”, declares Campos.34 In practice, according to Almir Xavier, leader of the MST in Pernambuco, viability of sugarcane in small properties is minimal. “It is a hard, intensive cultivation with 32 Elvira Lobato. Nordeste vê à distância explosão do álcool. Folha de São Paulo, 08/07/07. 33 Alagoas: sem trabalho durante a entressafra da cana, famílias não têm o que comer. Folha de São Paulo, 08/07/07. 34 Verena Glass. FAO defende etanol mas não tem fórmula de sustentabilidade. Agência Carta Maior, 09/07/07. 32 SUGARCANE profits of only R$ 6,000 per year for a plantation in the Pernambuco Zona da Mata”, he explains. In some cases this is the only option of the settled, who on the other hand, spends up to 3 months just eating manioc. “He is not capable of planting anything else, because sugarcane demands full attention. The latter ends up being extremely bad for the planters food security and for quality of life in general”, states Xavier. The increasing rise in land values and the practice of leasing land for expanding sugarcane plantations thus cause profound changes in agricultural production, generation of jobs in rural areas, on migratory tendencies, food supply and availability of land for agrarian reform. The situation of workers on sugarcane plantations Working conditions in the Brazilian sugar and ethanol sector are especially precarious, even among all rural workers in the country. This precariousness also makes it difficult to gather information on the real number of workers in the sector. According to sources used by DIEESE (Unica estimates), in 2007 approximately between 780,000 and one million workers were employed in the sector, for the cultivation and harvesting of sugarcane (DIEESE, 2007). Based on the National Research by Homestead Sampling – PNAD – the IBGE informs that the direct jobs existing in 2005 in the sugarcane production sector, was 519,000, an increase of 25% over 2000, while production itself increased by approximately 40%. According to this same source, in 1992 there were 647,000 workers. It is estimated that at present, harvesting activities in about 25% of Brazilian sugarcane plantations have been mechanized. Machine cutting reduces the numbers of workers and, therefore, the bargaining power of unions through strikes. (DIEESE, 2007) In Ribeirão Preto, interior of the State of São Paulo and the center of almost 60% of the country’s sugarcane production, satellite monitored tractors, electronically controlled fertilizing machines and precision harvesters are used. 50% of the plantations in that area are fully mechanized. Historically, Ribeirão Preto has always been the focus of rural worker battles for better work conditions and quality of life. The State where mechanization has been more rapidly introduced was São Paulo. Mechanization was the answer found by the production sector to salaried migratory worker claims and society opinion against the practice of clearing by burning in preparation for planting crops by hand. According to the IEA-SP survey, in 2007 mechanization corresponded to 40.7% of total area planted (Fredo et al, 2008). In Goiás, the level of mechanization is 39%, in Minas Gerais 18%, in Mato Grosso do Sul 31% , in Mato Grosso 80%, in Paraná 11%, 3%in Rio de Janeiro and in Espírito Santo, and almost nil in the Northeast states (DIEESE, 2007). 33 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Mechanization, though considered inexorable, is slow. The introduction of mechanized harvesters depends on many varying conditions such as development of new sugarcane strains, availability of capital, possibilities for irrigation and decrease in availability of cheap labor. In those regions where the activity is predominantly manual the new cane cycle, marked by high productivity, forces workers to harvest 15 tons of sugarcane daily. On average, the cane worker is now required to cut 10 tons per day of sugarcane, in comparison to 6 tons daily in 1980. According to Maria Aparecida de Moraes Silva, of UNESP (São Paulo State University), this additional effort shortens the work cycle in this activity, leading the workers to retrocede to standards of productive working life expectancy lower than those in existence prior to the abolition of slavery. In the 1980´s and 1990´s, the productive working life expectancy was 15 years, whereas it has become 12 years from 2000 onwards. According to the historian Jacob Gorender, the productive working life of slaves in agriculture was 10 to 12 years up to 1850, before the slave traffic was forbidden.35 The noncompliance with labor laws, collective labor agreements and conventions are the hallmark of work relations in the sector. A study on the work conditions in cane plants in the State of Paraíba, mentioned by DIEESE (2007), concluded that the workers suffer enormous losses due, among other reasons, to a reduction in the established base salaries, increased work load through the irregular classification of sugarcane; errors or frauds committed in weighing and conversion activities; and the non-payment of salary inclusions such as weekly paid rest, vacations and 13th salary. “The workers during a harvest year, in Paraíba lose out on an estimated nonpayment of 1.92 million minimum salaries (US$ 877.84 million). For each day worked, the laborers lose two. Only for salaries, it is estimated that the losses are approximately 60% of salaries. Errors or frauds in weighing activities account for a 21% reduction in salaries. The study points out a series of union measures to fight the situation: increase of worker control over production and simplification of calculations, formation of delegates in key positions; oversight campaigns; denunciations to, and pressuring official agencies.” (DIEESE, 2007) Another recent study by UNESP, mentioned by the Folha de São Paulo, shows that the expansion of sugarcane is attracting a growing number of workers from the Northeastern states such as Maranhão and Piauí, to São Paulo. In 2000, sugarcane production in São Paulo attracted only 100 cutters from Maranhão. In 2006/07, this number increased to 7,000 workers only from Timbiras-MA. 35 Mauro Zafalon. Cortadores de cana têm vida útil de escravo em SP. Folha de São Paulo, 29/04/07. 34 SUGARCANE The study also shows the cause-and-effect relation between sugarcane expansion in the Center-South region, the decrease in cattle raising in this region, and the migration tendencies of rural workers. With the expansion of cane plantations and increased land values in the Center-South, cattle farmers are moving to the North and Northeast, including Maranhão, where the formation of new pastures occurs in areas of babaçu nut cultivation which is the livelihood of families in the region. Without this regional crop, these families are forced to become cane cutters in São Paulo in order to survive. In the State of Piauí, where the same research was carried out, small farmers are driven out by plantations of soya, another crop that has migrated from the main area of cane expansion in search of lower priced land. The dynamics of territorial migration of the population in Brazil are discussed in the chapter “Synthesis and Conclusions”. 35 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Bibliography CNA. Agropecuária Brasileira: balanço de 2006 e perspectivas para 2007. Available at www.cna.org.br. CARVALHO, H. Impactos econômicos, sociais e ambientais devido à expansão da oferta do etanol no Brasil. Curitiba, julho de 2007. Available at www.landaction.org. CONAB. Acompanhamento da safra brasileira. Cana-de-açúcar. Safra 2007/2008. Primeiro Levantamento. May 2007. Brasília, CONAB, 2007. Terceiro Levantamento. November 2007. DIEESE. Desempenho do setor sucroalcooleiro brasileiro e os trabalhadores. Estudos e Pesquisas, year 3, n. 3. DIEESE, 2007. EPE. BEN 2008. Balanço Preliminar, informe à imprensa. May 2008. FAO. Food Outlook. Global Market Analysis. May 2008. FREDO, C. et al. Índice de Mecanização na Colheita da Cana-de-Açúcar no Estado de São Paulo e nas Regiões Produtoras Paulistas, June 2007. IEA-SP. Análise e Indicadores do Agronegócio, v. 3, n. 3, March 2008. GUARANI. Visão geral dos setores de açúcar e etanol. Açúcar Guarani S.A., 2007. Available at www.cvm.gov.br/dados/ofeanal/RJ-2007-06441. LASCHEFSKI, K. e ASSIS, W. Mais cana para o bioetanol, mais eucalipto para a biomassa e o carvão vegetal. GT Energia FBOMS, mimeo, August 2006. MAPA. Balanço nacional da cana-de-açúcar e agro-energia. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Brasília, 2007. MME. Oferta de biocombustíveis líquidos. Ministério das Minas e Energia/EPE, Brasília, 2007. RFA. Ethanol Industry Outlook. Renewable Fuels Association, 2008. Available at www.ethanolrfa.org/objects/pdf/outlook/RFA_Outlook_2008.pdf RODRIGUES, D. e ORTIZ, L. Em direção à sustentabilidade da produção de etanol de cana-de-açúcar no Brasil. Amigos da Terra Brasil and Instituto Vitae Civilis. February 2007. Available at www.vitaecivilis.org.br. UNICA, 2008. Estatísticas da produção. Available at www.portalunica.com.br. VALDES, C. Ethanol demand driving the expansion of Brazil’s sugar industry. USDA, 2007. Available at www.ers.usda.gov. 36 2 SOY AND BIODIESEL In 2006 FASE carried out a series of studies on soy, analyzing Brazilian and global production, as well as the expansion of soy plantations in various parts of Brazil.1 Hence, the present study will present only the most recent facts in the sector such as: Brazilian and worldwide updated industrial data regarding production, consumption and trade of soy; information on the rapid concentration of land areas for soybeans production in the country; and particularly new facts about the growing utilzation of vegetable oils as fuels in Brazil and in other countries. Production In 2006/07, the production of soybeans in Brazil reached a record 58.5 million tons (Conab, 2008), 6.1% over the previous harvest year. This corresponds to approximately 25% of the worldwide production of 236 million tons. During this same year, 20.7 million hectares in Brazil were planted with soybeans, almost 9% less than the previous year. Increased production, even with a reduction of plantations, is explained by better climatic conditions over the last year, especially in the South, where production increased by 25.7% (Conab, 2008). For 2007-08, forecasts published in May of 2008 showed total cultivated land areas of 21.2 million hectares, an expansion of 2.6%. The estimates indicate that there may be an increase in soybeans plantations all over Brazil. The greatest increase will be in the North (20.4%). Expansion in the Northeast and Center-West regions will be much less, 7.9% and 5.6%, respectively. In the Southeast and Southern regions, the calculations show a reduction of -4.7% and -1.3%, respectively. 1 Sergio Schlesinger: O grão que cresceu demais, May 2006. Sergio Schlesinger e Silvia Noronha: O Brasil está nu! O avanço da monocultura da soja, o grão que cresceu demais. Dezembro de 2006. 37 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS At State level, Roraima (172.7%) is where Conab foresees a greater increase in acreage planted. The second largest expansion in the country is also in the North: 21.9% in the State of Pará. Blairo Maggi, the world´s biggest individual soy producer, and State governor, estimates that the production of soy in Mato Grosso will increase by 26% in 2007, reaching 20 million tons (compared to 15.3 million in 2007).2 Conab estimates a gross production of 17.7 million tons (+15.52%). In any event, Mato Grosso, will continue to be the largest soybeans producing state in Brazil. Concerning volume, a production of 59.5 million tons is expected (+1.9%). Still according to Conab, the increases in land cultivated and soybean harvests are mainly a result of the higher market prices obtained over the previous years. Table 1 shows Conab estimates for acreage planted and production per region. TABLE 1 Soybeans: Estimated area planted and production for 2007-08 Region North Area Million Var. hectares % Production Million Var. Tons % 494.3 20.4 1,415.4 31.1 Northeast 1,570.1 7.9 4,397.9 13.7 Central-West 9,615.7 5.6 29,072.5 9.7 Southeast 1,400.4 (4.7) 3,947.3 (1.5) South 8,138.7 (1.3) 20,669.6 (9.9) Total 21,219.1 2.6 59,502.6 1.9 Source: Conab Acompanhamento da safra brasileira de grãos 2007/2008 – Oitavo levantamento – May 2008. In fact, a record US$ 567 a ton (US$ 34 per 60 kg bag) was obtained in 2008, on the Chicago Commodity Exchange. According to the Agribusiness Watch (Observatório do Agronegócio), based on news published by the Correio do Povo, this is the highest quotation ever in the history of the Exchange, which was founded in 1982. 3 2 Brasil conquistará a liderança da soja. SBCTA, Feb. 2007. Available at www.sbcta.org.br. 3 Observatório do Agronegócio. Valor da soja atinge pico histórico. Available at www.observatoriodoagronegocio, 21/02/08. 38 SOY AND BIODIESEL Exports Exports of soy in 2007 were 38.5 million tons, 2.9% less than in 2006. Higher international prices, however, counterbalanced amounts exported with a 21.6% increase in value: reaching US$ 11.323 billion, as against US$ 9.308 billion in 2006, representing 7.1% of total Brazilian exports. Soy continues to be the main Brazilian agribusiness export product, 19.5% of its total exports in 2007. In February 2008, Abiove (Brazilian Association of the Vegetable Oil Industry) estimated total exports of soy would be 42.4 million tons, (an increase of 10.1%), earning revenues of approximately US$ 16.477 billion (+45.5%).4 TABLE 2 Brazil – Exports of the soy sector – 2007 2007 Volume (1,000 tons) Value (US$/ton) Value (US$ million) Soybeans 23,734 283 6,709 Soy meal 12,474 237 2,957 2,343 707 Soy oil Total 38,551 1,656 11,323 Source: MAPA (2008) and Abiove. GRAPH 1 Brazilian Agribusiness Exports Source: MAPA (2008) 4 ABIOVE. Exportações do complexo soja. Available at www.abiove.com.br. Accessed on 06/03/08. 39 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS According to Fapri (U.S. Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute), estimates for 2007 Brazilian soy exports in 2008-2009 would be greater than those of the U.S., making Brazil the largest world exporter of this product. Again according to this source, Brazil´s participation will increase from 40% of total soy exports to 59.5% in 2016-2017, while U.S. exports will decline from the present 41.3% to 29.4%. On the other hand, long-term projections published in January 2008 by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicate that in ten years soy exports from Brazil will be almost triple U.S. sales. According to the USDA Report on Agriculture Projections, Brazilian sales of soy will increase from 42.4 million tons (in 2007/08, as per Abiove projections) to 62.9 million tons in 2017/18. This is a more than the total 2007/08 harvest. U.S. exports in the same period will decrease from 26.5 to 22.5 million tons. According to the U.S. government, the country’s production of soy should stabilize over the next few years with increased corn production. At the same time, the production of biodiesel will stimulate the demand for soy in the U.S. In Argentina, exports will reach 9.1 million tons in 2008/09 and then stabilize at 8.5 million. The country is basically an exporter of soy meal and oil rather than beans. Still according to the USDA, purchases by China, the biggest world importer of soy, will increase from the present 33.5 to 36.2 million tons in 2008/09, reaching 583 million tons in 2017/18. Exports to the European Union, second largest importer, will remain stable at between 14 and 15.5 million tons in the same period. World production and consumption Although the U.S. continues to be the largest world producer of soybeans, the rates of expansion of soybean production in Brazil and Argentina are still the highest in the world, at 6.1% and 16.5% respectively, in 2007. In the U.S., soy production in the same period increased by 4.1%. The consumption of soy in China continues to be the single most important reason for increased soy consumption in the world. According to the USDA, apart from China’s increasing demand for soy the decline of cotton and fish based animal feed supply, stimulated the consumption of soy meal, which rose 18.5% in China, with a 9.7% increase of soybean imports in 2006. China alone is responsible for 44% of global soy imports and practically all increases of soy imports in the world. 5 5 40 USDA. Oil crops yearbook, summary. March 2007. SOY AND BIODIESEL Concerning international prices, all soy products: beans, meal and oil, increased between 2006 and 2007. According to Abiove, soybeans and soy meal increased by 25.4% and soy oil by 41%. However, in 2008, international soy prices reached the highest levels in ten years. Soy oil, for example, reached an unprecedented record price of US$ 900 per ton in February 2008, compared to an average of US$ 720, in 2007. Regarding soybeans and soy meal, the territorial expansion of corn plantations in the U.S., due to American government subsidies for ethanol production, is resulting in a significant decline in land planted with soybean. This decline is seen as the main factor for the high international prices for soy products Another important factor for the increase in soy oil prices is the global interest in the use of rape-oil, soy oil, dendê-palm oil and other vegetable oils for the production of biodiesel in response to higher petroleum costs. The European Union, in particular, expanded its production and consumption of agrifuels originating from oleaginous seeds. As a result, the price of rape-oil has been steadily increasing since 2005, and was the determining factor for higher prices of soy and other vegetable oils. TABLE 3 Soybeans – Main producers – 2002/03 to 2006/07 millions of tons 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08* U.S.A. 75.010 66.778 85.013 83.368 86.770 70.360 Brazil 52.000 51.000 53.000 55.027 58.376** 61.000 Argentina 35.500 33.000 39.000 40.500 47.200 47.000 China 16.510 15.394 17.400 16.350 15.970 14.300 India 4.000 6.800 5.850 6.300 7.690 9.300 Paraguay 4.500 3.911 4.050 3.640 6.200 7.000 Canada 2.336 2.263 3.042 3.161 3.460 2.700 Other 6.933 7.385 8.391 11.374 11.604 8.190 Total 196.789 186.531 215.746 216.559 237.270 219.850 Source: USDA. World Agricultural Production. January, 2008 * Forecast ** Source: Conab (2008) 41 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS GRAPH 2 Distribution of global soybeans production – 2007/08 and 2016/17 Source: MAPA/FAPRI and USDA Based on FAPRI (2007) estimates, global soybean production will reach 280 million tons in 2016/17 (27% over 2005/06). This production should intensify in Brazil, the U.S. and Argentina who will be responsible for 85% of global production. Brazil’s participation will be 33% and that of the U.S., 30% (see Graph 2). Still according to FAPRI, the land area given over to soybean cultivation in the world should increase from 93.4 million hectares in 2006/07, to 106.3 million hectares in 2016/17. Production will increase to approximately 60 million tons, in comparison with the volume for 2006/07. Land ownership concentrated mainly in Mato Grosso The expansion of soybean cultivation in Mato Grosso – the largest national producer of soybean – has been determined by a movement which has intensified over the last three years of crisis, namely the growing concentration of land in the hands of large farming and cattle raising groups that lease land owned by medium sized producers. The Mato Grosso Association of Soy Producers (Aprosoja) estimates that this type of activity will increase rapidly, with lease contracts for ten or more years. 42 SOY AND BIODIESEL According to Marcelo Duarte, executive director of Aprosoja, the withdrawal of medium-sized producers from this activity can be found in their lower capacity to ride out crisis’ motivated by price fluctuations and dollar devaluations, aggravated by problems of logistics such as transportation. He believes that, in spite of the high agricultural indebtedness in the state, almost R$ 10 billion in 2007 – the land area planted with soy will not decline. “The latter because the large agricultural groups that have advantages in terms of logistics and in the purchase of raw materials, since they deal in large volumes of production, will continue to lease land from smaller producers who are heavily indebted and can see no way to recuperate their losses in view of the present level of profitability of soybean cultivation.”, he says. José Nardes, a soy producer and President of the Rural Union of Primavera do Leste, is one of the producers who signed a ten-year contract for leasing two of his three areas, each with approximately 2,000 hectares, to a large soy producer in the region. According to him, his neighbors and the majority of the medium-sized producers in the region – considered one of the biggest soy producing areas in the state – also leased out their land. “Besides the debts incurred, the producer’s profits were halved”, laments Andrades.6 The National Program for Biodiesel The National Program for the Production and Use of Biodiesel, was launched with the objective of stimulating family farmers to supply an alternative raw material to fossil fuels. The government launched a social seal and guaranteed fiscal exemptions to the plants buying raw material from small producers. In terms of the trade balance, the program aims at reducing purchases of diesel oil, which was responsible for 50% of Brazil´s consumption of liquid fuels in 2007. (Vieira, 2007) Domestic consumption of diesel oil in Brazil was approximately 42 billion liters per year in 2007, 80% of which was used by the transportation sector, 16% in agriculture and 4% by industry and other sectors. In order to supply the demand of its fleet of 2.3 million trucks, buses and pickups, Brazil imports 6% to 8% of the diesel consumed in the country – 2.5 to 3.4 million liters a year. The mixture of 2% (B2) biodiesel became obligatory at the beginning of 2008, and required 840 million liters annually to supply the domestic market (Rodrigues, 2007). The next phase of the Program which calls for the mixture of B3 (3%) biodiesel to diesel oil, as from July 2008, will require an annual production of 1.68 million liters. The Ministry for Agrarian Development instituted and regulated the concession of a certificate – the Social Fuel Seal – recognizing that the biodiesel producer fulfills the conditions required to receive fiscal incentives. To obtain this 6 Área avança, mas com concentração. Gazeta Mercantil, 15/06/07. Available at www.truman.com.br. 43 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS certificate, the producer must purchase at least 40% of his oleaginous raw materials from family farmers in the Northeast and Semi-Arid regions, 30% from farmers in the Southern and South-Eastern regions, and 10% from the North and CentralWestern regions. Thus, the biodiesel producer must have signed contracts with the respective raw material producers in order to obtain this certificate. To ensure the participation of small producers, the regulations also foresee the contractual participation of a rural workers´ organization such as CONTAG, FETRAF or ANPA (Bermann, 2007). The government thus wants to ensure that the information set out in contracts is transparent, which is not the case in other segments of the food production chain, where integrated production is the norm. According to the Minister for Agrarian Development, Guilherme Cassel, the social fuel seal of approval permitted the organization of communities: “There are already 540,000 hectares in the hands of family farmers with 97,000 families involved in the production of biodiesel, over 50% of which are located in the Northeast. With the auctions and objectives for this year (2008), this number will be 200,000 families. However, it is necessary to produce seeds, guarantee credit, implements, adapt agricultural insurance and give technical assistance. Pronaf (National Program for the Strengthening of Family Farming) signed over 70,000 contracts with more than R$ 100 millions in financing. These people never had a formal work contract. They were migratory workers. For the first time the Brazilian government is offering a program involving social organizations and private companies. The latter binds people to the land.”7 The federal government offers tax reductions or exemption on fuels, which vary by region and producer category. At present, the maximum incentive of 100% federal tax exemption for fuels is given for biodiesel produced in the North, Northeast and Semi-Arid regions, as long as the raw materials are purchased from family farmers, in both cases. The maximum federal tax reduction for purchases from non-familial producers in the above mentioned regions, is 32%. In May of 2008, fiscal incentives for castor-oil and palm oil purchased from family farmers agriculture were extended to other raw materials.8 According to Arnoldo de Campos, coordinator of the Ministry for Agrarian Development (MDA) Program, in spite of this: “The government does not know what the biodiesel in the country, is made from.” The Brazilian Civil Cabinet also announced that “there is no mechanism for the systematic tracking of the amount of biodiesel or the raw materials that are used for its production.” According to the Ministry’s advisors the government does not wish to control production. And the 7 Época Negócios. Entrevista com Guilherme Cassel: biodiesel social e econômico. 05/06/ 08. 8 Leoanrdo Goy. Governo amplia desoneração a produtores de biodiesel. Petrobio-Biodiesel, 16/05/08. 44 SOY AND BIODIESEL Ministry of Mines and Energy informs it also carries out no survey of the raw materials used by vegetable oil industries in their biodiesel mixture.9 The coordinator of the MDA Program says the origin of biodiesel becomes even more difficult to verify because the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) does not require detailed information on production from the company that wins the auctions and supplies the products for distribution. The ANP only inspects the final oil product to ensure it is within specifications. “What often happens is that the vegetable oil industry mixes soy oil with other types of vegetable oils. There is no control over the production process”, explains Campos. During the first years of the program, reverse auctions were held by the National Petroleum Agency, for marketing biodiesel. Up to April of 2008, nine auctions were held at which Petrobras purchased approximately one million liters of biodiesel that started to be delivered in 2006. The auctions fix a reference price and the winning companies are those offering biodiesel at the lowest prices. A study of the result of these auctions, based on the profile and location of the supply companies, shows it is possible to know only the preponderance of soybean oil in the mixture, which is approximately 90% relatively to the total negotiated volume. Second in importance is castor-oil, and its production production is extremely concentrated in the State of Bahia, which in 2008, is responsible for 78% of castor-oil produced in Brazil. According to Conab, from February 2008, plantation acreage increased from 155,600 to 170,000 hectares (+14.4%) between 2006 and 2007, due to the euphoria created by biodiesel.10 However, the next month’s survey (in March) carried out by Conab, in view of the prices obtained in the first auctions, showed that the area cultivated in Bahia would expand only 1.7%, to 158.2 thousand hectares. According to MDA´s Arnoldo de Campos, the biodiesel industries participating in the auctions have a varied profile. These are usually large companies from the chemical and vegetable oil sector, thermoelectric sector and cattle industries (such as Bertin). The biodiesel market in 2008 According to the ANP, Brazil produced 400 million liters of biodiesel in 2007. This volume is 480% greater than in 2006, or the equivalent to 48% of Brazil’s consumption in 2008 mixed with petroleum based diesel.11 9 Jeferson Ribeiro. Governo não sabe do que é feito biodiesel no Brasil. Invertia, 03/05/08. 10 Patrícia Künzel. Biodiesel tem futuro incerto no Brasil. Gazeta do Povo-PR, 07/05/07. 11 Brasil produziu 399 milhões de litros de biodiesel em 2007. www.biocomb.com.br, 15/02/08. 45 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS The principal producer States are: in first place, Goiás, with 111 million liters, followed by Bahia (69 million liters), Ceará (47 million liters), Rio Grande do Sul (43 million liters) and São Paulo (36 million liters). Other States with significant production are: Piauí (30 million liters), Maranhão (23 million liters) and Tocantins (23 million liters). For Aluísio Sabino, of Casa do Consultor 12, “results show that today, producing biodiesel is not profitable”. Stimulated by ample government incentives, many companies invested in the sector. There are 49 ANP approved plants, with an installed capacity of 2.5 billion liters/year – almost triple the quota necessary to supply 2008 needs. The implantation of another 47 plants awaits the agency’s authorization. When all plants are in operation, production capacity will reach 3.8 billion liters/ year. “There has been an explosion in the sector that has led to competition and this knocked prices way down,” says Jorio Dauster, president of Brasil Ecodiesel administrative council, the largest company in the sector, with six plants. In an auction held by ANP in November of 2007, Petrobras purchased 380 million liters of biodiesel for an average price of R$ 1.86 per liter – even though the reference price was R$ 2.40. This price does not even cover the costs of production, estimated at R$ 2 for fuel made from soy oil, which is the most economically viable option. Why then, did companies agree to deliver the product at a loss? The explanation is that, with so many plants already in existence companies are eager to close contracts with Petrobras thereby guaranteeing some return on their investment. After all, the auctions already held by ANP guaranteed a supply of biodiesel for the entire first semester of 2008, and there will be no other real chance for sales in the near future. “Our plants cannot stand idle for six months”, says Dauster. In view of the high prices of raw materials, the sector is divided. “Some companies thought it better to invest in this initial phase of the program, even at a lower than production cost, others that it was not worthwhile to carry on at a loss”, says Odacir Klein, former Transport Minister and director of the Brazilian Union for Biodiesel (Ubrabio). The Bertin group was one of the companies that initially opted for not participating in the auctions, but now in 2008, actively does so. However, the companies that sold the product at auctions have to deal with a difficult equation. It is therefore, believed that some companies will not deliver the auctioned biodiesel, in repetition of what happened in 2007. In that year, with the market operating in test mode, only 400 million liters were delivered, less than half the volume sold. 12 Biodiesel: bom de marketing, ruim de lucro. www.casadoconsultor.zip.net. 46 SOY AND BIODIESEL The production of biodiesel for January 2008 was 51.78 million liters, 15 million liters less than domestic consumption needs. To cover this deficit, the companies sold their stocks accumulated over 2007.13 According to information published by ANP, Binatural, Fiagril and Oleoplan, who had promised to deliver biodiesel from January 2008 on, did not report their production numbers for December and January. ADM and Bertin also did not have any production in December and January. Biocapital reported its December and January production numbers, but much less than the promised monthly delivery volumes. Granol and Brasil Ecodiesel would have had to increase their production by approximately 30% in order to fulfill their auction commitments in a timely manner. BSBios, in January, produced more than the total volume of biodiesel sold in auction, which is to be delivered up to June 30. Considering the recent authorization to export biodiesel, the company, established in Passo Fundo-RS, may have found a profitable outlet for its biodiesel. In order to reduce the risk of a product shortage, the regulating agency included penalties for companies who do not deliver the promised quantities, forbidding their participation in future auctions. “The objective of the first auctions was to stimulate the production of biodiesel and, therefore, there were no punitive clauses in the contracts. Now, this is no longer a possibility”, says Edson Silva, ANP supply. When the Brazilian program for biodiesel was conceived in 2005, the market for agricultural commodities was not good. Since then, however, the perspectives have changed. Better income in China and India increased the consumption of vegetable oils by 6.5%, in 2007, and a new increase in demand of 6% was estimated for 2008. Besides this, the advance of agrifuels also influenced the vegetable oil markets. As biodiesel becomes more important for the global energy matrix, its connection with petroleum increases. “This means that higher petroleum prices result in higher prices for vegetable oils”, says James Fry, director of the British consulting company LMC, specialized in the agricultural commodities market. Pressured by companies, the National Council for Energy Policy decided to impose the mixture of 3% biodiesel as from 1st July 2008, in Brazil. The annual 1.6 billion surplus production capacity has made the government forestall the goal of 5% biodiesel mixture, set for 2013, to 2010. The government also accepted the demands from the industries to introduce a series of changes in the rules governing auctions in order to raise existing prices. These acceptance of these demands resulted in significant price increases of biodiesel sold at the eighth and ninth auctions held in April of 2008. The average price went from R$1.86, in November 2007, to R$ 2.18, an increase of 17.2% in five months. 13 Produção de biodiesel fica abaixo do consumo. BiodieselBr.com, 17/03/08. 47 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS The announcement of these new rulings contributed to stimulate the production of biodiesel in 2008. In February, Brazilian production reached a record 75.9 million liters, and in March production was 61.8 million liters. The most imposing results belong to ADM, that established a new monthly production record. Its plant, located at Rondonópolis-MT, produced 11.7 million liters, surpassing the previous record of 10.5 million liters produced by Granol of Anápolis-GO, registered in February of that same year (see Graph 3) ANP stocks have guaranteed that the required mix is adhered to since the production of biodiesel in the year is greater than consumption.14 GRAPH 3 Ninth biodiesel auction: volume sold by company (April 2008 – thousand liters) Source: ANP. The high prices and sales have again brought optimism to the sector and some companies, based on this perspective, have announced new investments for the next few years. In the second semester of 2008, the sector plans to sell over 660 million liters, making Brazil the third largest biodiesel producer in the world, second only to Germany and the U.S.A. The government also plans to encourage the so-called BX market, in which the companies use a greater amount of biodiesel in their own fleets. Vale do Rio Doce, for example, mixes 20% biodiesel in the diesel used in their locomotives. “This may be a new frontier for national biodiesel because exports of this product will take some time to develop”, says Silva, of ANP. 14 ANP divulga produção de biodiesel em março. BiodieselBR.com, 20/05/08. 48 SOY AND BIODIESEL GRAPH 4 Total volume produced by Brazilian biodiesel plants in 2008 (in m3) – January to March 2008 Source: www.biodiesel.com.br. According to the Ministry of Planning, the PAC – Growth Acceleration Program, launched in 2007 by the Federal Government, foresees investments of R$ 1.2 billion in new biodiesel production plants, up to 2010. Twenty of these would start operations in 2007 and 26 in 2008.15 15 Ministry of Planning, Budget and Management. Programa de Aceleração do Crescimento, 2007-2010. Power-Point presentation available at www.planejamento.gov.br 49 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS FIGURE 1 New Biodiesel Plants Source: Ministry of Planning, 2007. The pressures of biodiesel industry With regard to the auction purchases by Petrobras, the producers demanded that these should no longer be at fixed prices. In fact, these producers want to have the option of selling soy oil either in the auctions or to foreign markets. The soy agribusiness thus wants annual readjustments based on international soy oil prices. This is a risk the distributors of fuels, who are accustomed to relatively stable diesel prices, do not wish to incur. The demands can also be explained by the increased price of soy oil on the Chicago Commodities Exchange, from US$ 400 per ton in 2005, to US$ 567 in April of 2008. And this tendency should continue for some time to come. A comparison between the price for a barrel of petroleum and that of soy oil was published on the site biodiesel.com.br in March 2008. “In the first eight months of 2006, the average price per barrel of petroleum remained at US$ 65, while the price for soybean oil was US$ 80, or 23% more than that for petroleum. Today, petroleum costs US$ 100 per barrel, and soy oil US$ 238 (Chicago Exchange values). Soy oil costs 138% more than petroleum. In the last eighteen months, while petroleum prices increased 54%, soy oil increased by 198%, almost triple the price of petroleum. The real reason for these high levels of vegetable oil prices was a global increase biodiesel demand, which reduced all available stocks to minimum levels.”16 With this, the profit margins of producers are reduced or even zeroed out. According to Tom Waslander, partner of Brasilpar, with biodiesel prices close to the 16 Petróleo X soja. www.biodiesel.com.br, 06/03/08. 50 SOY AND BIODIESEL selling price at auctions, and the cost of soy oil at US$ 500/ton, annual return of investment is higher than 25%, and is very attractive, explaining the sector’s interest in the Program. However, while biodiesel prices have remained stable, the price for soy oil is US$ 600/ton, and so the project’s profitability is almost nil. These accounts can certainly explain why, up to March 2007, Soyminas, of Minas Gerais and the first officially approved Brazilian biodiesel producer, had not fulfilled a single supply contract two years after starting operations. In 2008, Soyminas closed its production unit at Cássia (MG). This unit produced oils from sunflower seeds, turnips and soybeans. The company also announced it plans to sell to foreign markets. “We have many foreign customers interested in purchasing biodiesel, and at much more attractive prices”, says Valter Egídio, President of the company’s administrative board. According to him, the demand in Europe is high, but there is also a growing interest for this fuel on the part of Japan. “We plan to participate in the next auctions, but the focus will be on closing the best deals”.17 Alternative agricultural products The increase in soy oil prices on the Chicago Exchange leads some government sectors to believe that, in the medium term, other agricultural products may substitute soybean oil in the production of biodiesel. The Ministry for Agrarian Development estimates that the participation of soy oil in the market which today is 90%, will decrease to 60% by the end of 2008; followed by castor-oil, with 25%, and the rest divided among sunflower seed, palm and bovine tallow. “The instability shown by soy is pushing producers to other products”, says Arnoldo Campos, MDA’s Coordinator General of Added Value and Income.18 The MDA is now assessing the possible use of some alternative products such as castor-oil and the jatropha. In the medium and long terms, these alternative products could become even more profitable than soy, due to their high oil yield per hectare, and because they are more appropriate for small farming activities. They also do not interfere with the cultivation of foodstuffs. Whatever vegetable oils are selected, the bottleneck is not in production. Even if Brazil depended only on soy, there would still be some leeway. Considering that the country produces 56 million tons/year of this oil, the potential for vegetable oils would be approximately 11 million tons/year. This amount is about eight times the biodiesel requirements for 2008. This does not include animal tallow produced in Brazil which alone could reach this goal, according to government sources. 17 Patrick Cruz and Mônica Scaramuzzo. Sem estímulo, produtores de biodiesel param as máquinas. www.biodiesel.com.br, 27/02/08. 18 Biodiesel: esse negócio vai emplacar? Available at www.biodiesel.com.br, 02/07/07. 51 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS The Proposal of soy entrepreneurs for biodiesel Through Abiove19, the companies involved in the production and marketing of soy oil defend the full use of soy in implementing the National Biodiesel Program, arguing that this product is responsible for approximately 90% of Brazil’s production of vegetable oils. At the same time, they defend the gradual substitution of soy oil by other oleaginous products with a higher oil content and productivity per hectare. Two possible uses of soy oil without the need for increasing areas of cultivation are presented (Abiove, 2007). The first is to redirect part of the soybean exports to domestic production, thereby generating additional volume of soy oil for biodiesel production, and exporting soy meal instead of soybeans. The advantages of this option are: reduction of idle production capacity, continued entry of foreign exchange, a greater aggregate value and new jobs. The second possibility would be to redirect part of the volume of soy oil exports to the production of biodiesel. As can be seen, the vegetable oil processing industries are very interested in the National Biodiesel Program. Another publication of the industry shows that the idle capacity of the sector in 2005 was approximately 10 million tons, equivalent to a quarter of its total capacity (Abiove, 2006). In view of this interest, the companies affiliated to Abiove have been pressuring the government to adopt fiscal measures to make this goal feasible. The soy industry lobby In May of 2007, the Jornal do Comércio 20 newspaper announced that the soy processing industry was negotiating a fiscal package with the Ministry of Finance for altering taxation on exports and the method of tax compensations, as well as to reduce tax quotas on soy based biodiesel. Exactly one year later, in May of 2008, the Ministry of Mines and Energy published a decree extending tax exemptions to biodiesel producers who purchased any type of raw materials from family farmers in the North, Northeast and Semi-Arid regions. Previously, this exemption was only applicable to purchasers of castor or palm oil from family farmers. According to Carlo Lovatelli, President of Abiove, the objective of these fiscal measures is to stimulate soy processing in Brazil, reducing the proportion of soybean exports and increasing those of soy meal and oil: “This is an aberration, but we are making all efforts to see if we can change this correlation; we must review the tax policy for export incentives with the government, since the aggregate value (oil and meal) is taxed, but not raw material – exactly the opposite of what others are doing”. 19 Abiove – Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries – comprises eleven large industries in the segment, responsible for over 70% of soy processing in Brazil, in 2006. Only Caramuru Alimentos among the largest companies, is not affiliated to ABIOVE. 20 Indústria da soja negocia pacote tributário. Jornal do Comércio, 03/05/07. 52 SOY AND BIODIESEL Another measure seeks to accelerate the receipt, by the industry, of the sales tax credits paid on soy meal and oil. Regarding biodiesel, the Brazilian industry is lobbying the government to obtain the same fiscal exemptions for soy based fuel as those granted for fuels made from other raw materials such as castor and palm oil. The soy industry would thus benefit from the same tax exemptions granted to family farmers by the National Biodiesel Program. For Nivaldo Rubens Trama, president of the Brazilian Association of Biodiesel Industries (ABIOdiesel), biodiesel could be an option for supply when there is a lower demand for soy oil. “I believe that over the next two years the large crushing industries will change their activities to producing biodiesel in order to increase their mix options when marketing their products. Moreover, they will focus on large volume raw materials such as soy”.21 Other Abiove proposals In order to increase the rural producer’s income, Abiove proposes “the development of mechanisms leading to diversifying and adding value to the production of grain. This can be done by transforming the bean and grain producer (of soybean and corn) especially in the Cerrado, into a producer of meat (poultry and pigs) for export. While historically, a ton of soybeans is worth approximately US$ 230 (and a ton of corn, US$ 100), a ton of pork is worth over US$ 1,500. Therefore, the possibility of an added value to the production of beans and grains by means of producing meat for export would generate enough income to preserve the environment through sustainable use”. Such proposals are presented in its publication Produção responsável no agronegócio da soja (Responsible production in soy agribusiness) (Abiove, 2007). Still according to Abiove, this would be the best way to reduce pressure on new agricultural areas. At the same time, the production of meat in the Cerrado region would allow the activities of small and medium-sized producers to be integrated with those of large poultry and pork processing companies, “generating many more jobs in the region. It would thus be possible for the Center-West, to duplicate the type of agricultural activity existing in the South”. Abiove argues, in this same publication, that the cycle of soybean monoculture in the region, would decline with this meat production activity. This would occur as a result of increased corn production (which, according to Abiove, today is unviable due to the cost of transporting the product to the south) for producing animal feed, mainly in the State of Mato Grosso. This crop rotation between corn and soy, in reducing the propagation of pests such as Asian soybean rust, would also reduce the need for chemical pesticides. 21 Biodiesel aguça o apetite de três multinacionais européias. Joranl DCI, 08/07/05. 53 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Abiove also defends the system of integrated agricultural and cattle raising activities, with the cultivation of beans and grains in areas of degraded pastures, as a means of recuperating soil fertility and increasing pasture productivity, similarly to normal crop rotation: in summer corn and soy would be planted, in winter, with the pastures recuperated, cattle would graze on fodder and in the pastures. The Ministry of Agriculture also approves this proposal. It confirms that within the next two years, approximately 30 million hectares of low productivity pastures will be released for agriculture by integrating agriculture/cattle raising activities. What is proposed, in fact, is the model of integrated production which already exists for the production of poultry, pigs and other agriculture and animal husbandry activities, where the abovementioned aggregated value is appropriated by the large agri-industrial companies in the sector, in detriment to the small producers. In order for these proposals to become reality, Abiove defends Brazilian interests in the most important trade negotiations abroad, such as, on the part of developed countries: the elimination of import tariffs, of subsidies and special safeguards on domestic production of beef. Abiove argues that the developed countries have a responsibility in relation to monoculture of soy in Brazil”. Biodiesel and rural social movements In April of 2005, the Small Farmers Movement (MPA) and the Landless Workers’ Movement (MST) launched Cooperbio, the first biodiesel cooperative in the country, in Rio Grande do Sul. In August of 2006, Cooperbio already had 1,500 members, but the goal is 20,000 members. 25,000 families of 62 municipalities in the northwest region of the state participate in the cooperative which is located in Palmeira das Missões. Its production capacity of fuel should reach 400,000 liters per day.22 For Romário Rossetto, President of the cooperative, the answer for biodiesel lies with multioils, and not soy. The Cooperative prioritizes the use of raw materials such as the castor bean, jatropha and sunflower seed. Not only is their cultivation natural and environmentally-friendly, because they are not monocultures and do not require pesticides, but they also yield much more oil than soy. Only 18% oil is obtained from crushing soybeans, while the castor bean yields over 50%.23 Another factor that distinguishes Cooperbio mentioned by Rossetto, is that the Project produces energy as well as food, with the farmer participating not only in all production but in trading activities as well. “In the case of ethanol and biodiesel, we are working with the idea of integrating energy with foodstuffs. Including, integrating ethanol with production of milk. For example, one may 22 Suzane Durães. MPA lança primeira cooperativa de biodiesel no País. April 2005. www.mpabrasil.org.br. 23 It must be stressed that, contrary to castor bean bagasse, soybean bagasse has a high commercial value as raw material for animal feed. 54 SOY AND BIODIESEL process cane bagasse, increasing milk production. So it is perfectly possible to produce energy with food”, he claims. According to Rossetto, many agrifuel companies are being created only to stimulate the agribusiness of soybean monoculture. “The capital invested in this agribusiness is totally oriented to soybeans. So the companies are trying to safeguard their investments”.24 As mentioned by Abramovay and Magalhães (2007), the possibility of offering family farmers new market opportunities, as well as the unique political strengthening of rural unions are the two hypotheses explaining why the unions, particularly those affiliated to CONTAG, are so interested in the program. There is, however, strong opposition within the rural social movements. To them the present relationship with processing companies is unacceptable. They want, not only changes in this system, but also that the government guarantee conditions for family farmers to develop their own production and industrialization activities. These segments of the social movements also strongly oppose the social fuel seal of approval. Fetraf, MST and MPA reject the model that encourages integration between family farmers and large private companies. In 2007, in Curitiba, Fetraf and Sindipetro (Petrobras Workers Union) published a manifesto against the seal of approval. (Abramovay and Magalhães, 2007) Friar Sérgio Antônio Görgen, of the MPA, proposes that the cooperatives have responsibility over other phases of the production chain and develop partnerships with public companies. In spite of criticisms, he considers that the outlook for family farmers is “getting better”, with the offer of technical assistance and specific credit lines – today there are the Pronaf Oleaginous, the Pronaf Biodiesel and Agroindustry.25 According to Georges Flexor, of the Multidiscipline Institute of the Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro (IM/UFRRJ), one of the more positive implementations of the Program is the prospect of new crops and new technologies: “The significant overall participation of farmers all over the country and the rediscovery of raw materials such as the jatropha and dendê palm, may be the great contributors to this model”. He stresses that technically, there is no reason why the cooperatives cannot take on more of the sector’s chain of production. “The problem is to create a productive and organizational capacity for large-scale production and obey rules “, he observes. The Via Campesina warns of the dramatic increases of food prices. “During the year, wheat doubled in price and corn is almost 50% more than last year. The price control mechanisms are being demolished everywhere in the world, exposing farmers and consumers to extreme price variations.”26 24 Raquel Casiraghi. Biodiesel não depende da soja, diz agricultor. Agência Chasque, August 2006. www.mpabrasil.org.br. 25 Suspensão de selo, otimismo e críticas caracterizam programa. Jornal Alto Madeira – O Guaporé, 06/02/2008. 26 Crise de Preços e Agricultura Familiar. Via Campesina International. 27/02/2008. 55 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS H-Bio Diesel In May of 2006, Petrobras announced that as from 2007, at least 10% of imported diesel would be substituted by H-Bio produced from soy. Initially, the new diesel would be produced in the Petrobras refineries in Minas Gerais and Paraná (Regap and Repar), but would be processed in another three after 2009. The idea was to use 9.6% of refined soy oil exported by Brazil in this initial phase, gradually increasing the percentage to 15.5% in 2008-09. However, in August of 2007, Petrobras decided to suspend production of H-Bio due to the high prices of soy oil. The company explained that, with the prices in effect at the time, it would be unprofitable to use it in diesel production. The main difference between H-Bio and biodiesel is that, in the case of biodiesel, the oil made from castor-beans, sunflower seeds or dendê-palm nuts is added to the diesel at the distributors, after being chemically processed in a transformation plant. In the case of H-Bio, on the other hand, the vegetable oil is added during the petroleum refining process together with hydrogen. The result of this mixture is a diesel which is the same as ordinary diesel, but has less sulphur content and is, therefore, less polluting.27 In February of 2008, Dilma Rousseff, Minister and Chief of Staff, declared that the use of biodiesel in Brazil would happen at a slower pace than had been originally expected. Regarding H-Bio, she confirmed that its production will develop in keeping with the international prices for soy. She said that H-Bio will be used as a “flex-fuel”. When there is excess supply, Petrobras could buy all the soy necessary to make H-Bio thereby balancing supply and demand. The Minister also confirmed that Petrobras is studying the possibility of producing H-Bio from sunflower, castor beans and the jatropha.28 Conclusions The growing use of agrifuels in Brazil and in other countries will influence the soybeans production in the country in many ways. Even if the biodiesel production from soy did not require increased areas of soybeans plantations, other factors would determine the expansion of the cultivated areas. Presently, the determining factor of accelerated growth of soybean cultivation in Brazil and other countries of the region, is the decrease in land used for soybean plantation in the U.S., the largest world producer, due to high government subsidies granted for the production of ethanol from corn. 27 Kelly Lima. H-Bio substituirá diesel já em 2007. O Estado de São Paulo, 20/05/06. 28 Eduardo Magossi. Dilma: alta da soja limitará uso de biodiesel. Agência Estado, 16/02/08. 56 SOY AND BIODIESEL There is also the possibility that biodiesel, along with sugarcane based ethanol produced in Brazil may become important export items in the future. Some companies have announced that they are already negotiating the export of these products with European countries. Concerning the domestic market for biodiesel, the continued importance of soy in the long term will depend on several factors. On the one hand, the Ministry for Agrarian Development is working towards diversifying the sources of supply, investing in the participation of family farmers in the National Biodiesel Program. According to the MDA, 28 industries had been granted the Social Fuel Approval Seal in February of 2008.29 These companies could benefit over 100,000 family farmers, according to the MDA. The Ministry estimates that, once these companies are fully operational, they could involve over 200,000 small farmers in the production process. At present, approximately 100,000 families are involved in the production of vegetable oils in Brazil, half of them in the Northeastern region.30 On the other hand, as already discussed, soy industries have submitted a long list of claims to the government, for increasing the profit margins of soy oil processing industries. If such measures are implemented, soy oil will continue to be the raw material of choice for biodiesel production for a long period of time. Should this be the case, the following problems can be foreseen: • Continued increases in the price of soy oil, which is an important basic food item for Brazilians, similarly to what happened recently in the case of ethanol due to the significant increase in exports of this product. • Greater control of agricultural product and fuel prices on the part of transnational companies due to petroleum price variations, as well as their growing ascendency over the production process of these items “The circle closes when it is perceived that soy production is being taken over nearly completely by foreign companies. There is an over production of soy oil in Brazil because its main product, soy meal, which is used for animal feed, is almost totally exported to Europe. The residue, soy oil, is today a byproduct that is a surplus for use by refineries. The solution for lowering stocks is to oblige Petrobras to mix this excess product as biodiesel, to ordinary diesel, which would guarantee that our enormous energy potential remains in the hands of the imperialist countries.” 31 29 Biocamp é a nova empresa com Selo Combustível Social. MDA, 26/02/08, www.mda.gov.br/saf. 30 Inaugurada a maior usina de biodiesel do país. Adital, 30/01/07. www.adital.com.br. 31 A experiência da produção em massa de biodiesel. Interview with Artur Augusto Alves, of Soyminas Biodiesel, by José Ricardo Prieto. www.anovademocracia.com.br 57 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Bibliography ABIOVE. Produção responsável no agronegócio da soja. April 2007. Biodiesel no Brasil: a visão da indústria de óleos vegetais. June 2006. ABRAMOVAY, R. and MAGALHÃES, R. O acesso dos agricultores familiares aos mercados de biodiesel: parcerias entre grandes empresas e movimentos sociais. Texto para Discussão n° 6. São Paulo. FIPE, June 2007. BERMANN, C. (org.). As novas energias no Brasil: dilemas da inclusão social e programas de governo. Rio de Janeiro. FASE, 2007. CONAB. Acompanhamento da safra brasileira de grãos. Safra 2007/2008. Oitavo Levantamento. May 2008. FAPRI. World Agricultural Outlook. Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute. Available at www.fapri.org/outlook2007. MAPA. Balanço nacional da cana-de-açúcar e agro-energia. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Brasília, 2007. Projeções do agronegócio: mundial e Brasil. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Brasília, 2007. Balança Comercial do Agronegócio – 2007. Ministério da Agricultura, Pecuária e Abastecimento. Brasília, 2008. RODRIGUES, R. Biodiesel no Brasil: diversificação energética e inclusão social com sustentabilidade, in O Futuro da Indústria: Biodiesel. Collection of articles, series Política Industrial, Tecnológica e de Comércio Exterior – n. 14. Brasília, DF. MDIC, 2006. VIEIRA, J. A agroenergia e os novos desafios para a política agrícola no Brasil, in O Futuro da Indústria: Biodiesel. Collection of articles, series Política Industrial, Tecnológica e de Comércio Exterior – n. 14. Brasília, DF. MDIC, 2006. 58 3 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL It was not so long ago that wood was no longer used as the most important primary source of energy in Brazil. Only in 1970 was wood supplanted by petroleum, then later by hydroelectric power and more recently by sugarcane products. In 2007, according to the Energy Research Company (EPE), wood and charcoal were responsible for 12.5% of the primary energy sources used in Brazil (EPE, 2008). Even today the amount of wood sourced energy is quite significant. According to Brito (2007), 69% of the timber utilized in Brazil, in 2006, went towards generating energy, from planted and native forests. Tree monocultures Artificially planted forests presently occupy the fourth position in terms of cultivated land in Brazil, after soy, corn and sugarcane. In 2007 they covered 5.56 million hectares, a 3.4% increase over 2006. According to Bracelpa – Brazilian Association of Pulp and Paper, Brazil was the sixth country in areas planted with trees in 2006 (Table 1, below). It is the country that has the most extensive eucalyptus plantations. The majority of artificially planted forests – approximately 30% – are used for the production of paper and pulp. The charcoal consumption by the steel industry is another factor that has stimulated the expansion of tree plantations, being responsible for 22.1% of wood from these artificial forests. The furniture and plywood panel industries also are big consumers of timber from planted trees. (see Graph 1). 59 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS TABLE 1 Area of planted forests in the World (1,000 hectares) Country Country’s total area Artificially Planted Forests % Japan 37,380 10,000 India 328,726 32,600 9.92 9,191 800 8.70 China 959,696 45,000 4.69 Indonesia Portugal 26.47 205,000 9,000 4.39 Spain 50,599 1,900 3.76 Chile 75,609 2,200 2.91 USA 937,261 16,000 1.71 Brazil (2006) 851,488 5,500 0.65 1,700 0,20 Pulp and Paper Source: FAO/Bracelpa. GRAPH 1 Percent Consumption of Industrial Timber from Planted Forests by Segment in Brazil, 2007 Source: Abraf (2008). 60 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL Between 1997 and 2007, the production of timber for industrial uses grew 45%, reaching 152.6 million cubic meters in 2007. According to Bracelpa, the production of pulp in Brazil reached 11.9 million tons, with an average increase of 7.6% as from 1970, and that of paper grew 5.8% in the same period, reaching 9 million tons in 2007. In this same year, exports of wood products increased 12.4% in comparison with 2006, earning revenues of US$ 6.1 billion (Abraf, 2008). The States having the largest plantations are, in order of importance, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, Paraná, Santa Catarina, Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul. According to Abraf (Brazilian Association of the Producers of Tree Plantations), the artificial forests of pine trees are concentrated in the States of Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul, corresponding to 79.2% of the total area of pine plantations in the country. Eucalyptus plantations correspond to 64% of the total area of artificially planted forests in Brazil, the majority in the States of Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Bahia. Other species, such as black wattle (acacia mearnsii), gmelinaarborea, poplar (populus euroamericana), rubber-tree (Hevea brasiliensis), teak and araucaria pine, occupy less than 1% of the area planted with trees in Brazil, or 326,000 hectares. The speed with which eucalyptus grows in Brazil due to climate conditions, is the main reason for the accelerated expansion of the monocultures. While in the U.S. and Canada, it takes 70 years for the tree to become fully grown, and in Australia, its country of origin, 30 years, in Brazil the tree reaches full maturity in only seven years. Abraf´s 2008 Statistical Yearbook shows that in 2007, the primary and industrial processing activities of the articicial forest sector generated approximately 665.5 thousand direct jobs and 1.8 million indirect jobs. According to the Ministry of Planning, the plantations in the States of Pará and Amapá are used mainly for the production of pulp, especially by the Orsa Group. The plantations in the State of Minas Gerais have the purpose of producing not only charcoal for the steel industry, but also for pulp. Those of the State of São Paulo and the South are primarily used for manufacturing plywood panels and also for pulp. In the State of Espírito Santo, they are used for the production of pulp, and the timber from plantations in the State of Mato Grosso do Sul go mainly to pulp factories in São Paulo and steel mills in Minas Gerais. Geography of the expansion Between 2000 and 2007, the area planted with eucalyptus and pine trees by Abraf affiliated companies increased 183%. According to this entity, it is estimated that in 2020, artificially planted forests will occupy a total area of 7 million hectares in Brazil. The country’s industrial consumers of forestry products, as well as exports, are growing steadily. The most important industries are charcoal, paper, pulp and plywood panels. 61 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS TABLE 2 Artificially cultivated forests of eucalyptus and pine trees in Brazil 2006/07 (hectares) State MG SP PR SC BA RS MS ES PA MA AP GO MT Other TOTAL Pines Eucalyptus Total 2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007 152,000 146,474 686,453 530,992 54,820 1,378 28,500 4,408 149 0 20,480 14,409 7 4,189 1,824,269 144,248 143,148 701,578 548,037 41,221 182,378 20,697 4,093 101 0 9,000 13,828 7 0 3,407,204 1,083,744 816,880 121,908 70,341 540,172 184,245 119,319 207,800 115,806 93,285 58,473 49,637 46,146 41,392 3,549,148 1,105,961 813,372 123,070 74,008 550,127 222,245 207,687 208,819 126,286 106,802 58,874 60,872 51,279 57,151 3,751,867 1,235,744 963,354 808,361 601,333 594,992 365,623 147,819 212,208 115,955 93,285 78,963 64,045 46,153 45,582 5,373,417 1,250,209 956,521 824,648 622,045 591,348 404,623 228,384 212,912 126,387 106,802 67,874 65,107 57,158 46,186 5,560,203 Source: Abraf, STPC 2007. The paper and pulp sector is responsible for 72% of eucalyptus forests planted by Abraf affiliated companies, followed by the steel sector with 22%, and furniture segment with 5%. Of the cultivated areas, 75% are owned by industries, 10% leased from third parties and 15% are what these companies consider “promotion areas”. These are integrated production areas, a model also used for various other crops in Brazil, where companies guarantee future purchases of timber from small and medium-sized farmers. Still according to Abraf, besides exports, other domestic industrial sectors are responsible for the expansion of cultivated forests. For example, over the last few years the manufacture of plywood panels has increased significantly and shows no signs of slowing down. Investments for new plants are foreseen in São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná and Santa Catarina. The expansion of artificially planted forests The 2008 Abraf Yearbook informs that, as a result of this increased industrial demand, its affiliated companies plan to invest approximately R$ 20 billion in expansion projects, between 2008 and 2012. This expansion should occur mainly in States where production is already high namely Bahia, Minas Gerais and Paraná, as well as Rio Grande do Sul. 62 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL Investments in their industrial plants over the next four years are estimated at R$ 11.9 billion. R$ 4 billion is earmarked for tree planting alone. The other R$ 20 billion will be invested in research and development, road construction, harvesting and transportation. Just in 2006-2007, these companies invested approximately R$ 11 billion. According to Abraf estimates, 600 to 700 thousand additional hectares were planted with trees in Brazil, in 2007. The largest expansion occurred in the States of Mato Grosso do Sul (80,000 ha), Rio Grande do Sul (40,000 ha), Santa Catarina (21,000 ha) and Minas Gerais (15,000 ha). Of this total, 112,000 hectares were planted on small properties, some being financed by programs such as the Pronaf Forest, Proflora and other government programs, representing a 38.6% increase in tree plantation areas (Abraf, 2008). The State of São Paulo is the largest producer of pulp, approximately 30% of Brazil’s production, followed by the State of Espírito Santo, with 22%. São Paulo is also the largest paper producer in the country, with 45% of total domestic production. Over half the national paper production is concentrated in the Southeastern region – both the Southern and Southeastern regions together, are responsible for over 90% of Brazil’s paper production. One of the more important new areas of artificial tree cultivation, is the centersouthern region of Rio Grande do Sul, where the development of a new pulp pole is foreseen. In 2007 licenses for forestry projects were granted for planting approximately 45,000 hectares. In order to supply the pulp manufacturing units which Aracruz, Votorantim Pulp e Papel (VCP) and Stora Enso plan to install in Rio Grande do Sul, these companies will plant approximately 38,000 hectares of trees up to 2015. The investments of these companies in the State should reach almost US$ 4.5 billion. It is calculated that, by the end of this period, the artificial forest areas in Rio Grande do Sul may total 900,000 mil hectares.1 The projects of the three companies together, will cover approximately 300,000 hectares of eucalyptus plantations in that State – almost 3% of its territory.2 New projects are also being implemented in Mato Grosso do Sul, for supplying its steel industry. In the Northeast, the midwest region of the State of Piauí should be mentioned, where the State government is implementing the Parnaíba Valley Forest Promotion Program. In July 2007, the Rio de Janeiro State government sanctioned a law changing the ecological-economic zoning in effect up to then, which will make large-scale planting of eucalyptus forests possible. The law reduces the area for the preservation 1 RS: licenciamento pode atingir 70 mil hectares de florestas cultivadas. Jornal do Comércio, 11/04/08. 2 Marco Aurélio Weissheimer. Monocultura do eucalipto tomará quase 3% do território do RS. Carta Maior, 08/12/06. 63 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS of the native forests on large eucalyptus producing plantations, from 30% to 20%. For plantations of less than 50 hectares, the preserved area is even lower – 12 to 15%. It should be pointed out that the preserved area of Atlantic Forest in this State covers only 4.3% of its territory. The government believes it is possible to attract pulp industries to Rio de Janeiro with investments of US$ 1 billion. TABLE 3 Brazil’s Paper and Pulp Industry – Main Investments – 2007 to 2012 2007 – Operating State Product US$ Million Aracruz ES Pulp 200 Bahia Pulp BA Dissolving pulp 400 Suzano BA Pulp 1,350 Klabin PR Folding boxboard TOTAL 1,090 3.040 2008 – 2009 – Being implemented State Product US$ Million VCP MS Pulp 1,500 International Paper MS Printing and writing paper 260 TOTAL 1,760 2010 -2012 – In study State Product US$ Million Aracruz RS Pulp 1,800 Veracel BA Pulp 1,500 VCP RS Pulp 1,500 Cenibra MG Pulp 680 Stora Enso RS Pulp TOTAL 1,500 6,980 Source: Bracelpa (2008). Paper and Pulp The U.S. and Canada are the largest world producers of pulp. Together they were responsible for 40% of global production, in 2007. Next, in order of importance are: China, Finland, Sweden, Brazil and Japan. The principal exporting countries of pulp are: Canada, the U.S., Sweden, Brazil, Chile and Finland. Together these countries control 70% of world exports (Montebello and Bacha, 2007). 64 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL Brazilian pulp production in 2007, reached 11.9 million tons, an increase of 6.6% over 2006; and its paper production 19 million tons, an increase of 2.8%. With the 2007 production results Brazil recently became the sixth largest producer in the world, passing Japan which until 2005 occupied this position (Bracelpa, 2008). TABLE 4 Largest World Producers of Pulp and Paper 2007 (Preliminary) Pulp Country Paper Thousand tons 1. USA 2. Canada 3. China 4. Finland 5. Sweden 6. Brazil 7. Japan 8. Russia 9. Indonesia 10. Chile 11. India 53,215 23,677 18,160 13,066 12,240 11,916 10,884 7,370 5,672 3,550 3,250 World Total 192,177 Country Thousand tons 1. USA 2. China 3. Japan 4. Germany 5. Canada 6. Finland 7. Sweden 8. South Korea 9. Italy 10. France 11. Brazil 12. Indonesia 84,073 65,000 31,106 22,655 18,170 14,151 12,066 10,703 10,009 10,006 8,966 8,862 381,551 Source: Bracelpa (2008) According to Bracelpa, the country’s production of fiber should increase by 8.5%, reaching 12.8 million tons in 2008. With this, Brazil will surpass Sweden as one of the world’s largest producers of pulp of all types, achieving fifth place in installed capacity. In 2009, per Bracelpa, Brazilian production will be on a par with that of Finland, who today produces 13 million tons/year, and will become the fourth largest producer in the world. The Brazilian company Aracruz is the largest world producer of eucalyptus fiber.3 In 2007, exports of pulp and paper reached US$ 4.7 billion, compared to US$ 4.0 billion in 2006, an increase of 18%. This value should reach US$ 5.3 billion in 2008, 12.1% over 2007 results. Traditionally, the main destination for Brazilian pulp is Europe (54% in 2007). Brazil’s largest market for paper is Latin America (57%), as seen in Graph 2 below. 3 Stella Fontes. Especial: 2008 deve ser o 4º ano seguido de alta no preço da celulose. Agência Estado, 17/12/07. 65 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS GRAPH 2 Destiny of Brazilian exports in 2007 Source: Bracelpa (2008) The pulp and paper segment is increasing rapidly as a result of significant investments in the sector. According to Bracelpa, the volumes of paper and pulp production and export goals previously forecast for 2012, were already reached at the end of 2007. Between 2008 and 2012, investments of approximately US$ 8.7 billion are planned for the sector. The main objective is to supply the growing demand for pulp and charcoal in the domestic and export markets. The Brazilian pulp and paper industry comprises 220 companies located in 450 municipalities, in 17 States. In 2005, five groups alone were responsible for 73% of national pulp production. According to Montebello and Bacha (2007), this is due, in part, to the origin of the pulp and paper sector in Brazil. From the start, the number of companies on the market was subject to BNDES´ minimum scale policy. Therefore, the pulp industry in Brazil was born oligopolized. 66 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL TABLE 5 Evolution of Brazilian timber product exports US$ thousands Product 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Pulp 1,247 1,160 1,744 1,722 2,034 2,484 3,024 Paper 943 894 1,087 1,187 1,371 1,521 2,006 Sawn wood 229 245 255 294 304 275 257 Composed panels 71 97 121 161 176 175 146 Plywood 156 211 344 521 510 438 422 Charcoal 2 2 2 6 4 3 3 Others 124 165 194 335 201 262 250 TOTAL 2,771 2,774 3,747 4,226 4,600 5,158 6,108 Source: SECEX, 2007. Adapted by STPC TABLE 6 Paper and Pulp – Largest companies – Brazil – 2006 Company Sale Revenues (in R$ millions) Klabin 3 307.00 Suzano 3 190.50 Votorantim – VCP 3 032.00 Aracruz 2 364.90 Duratex 1 880.10 Ripasa 1 738.90 International Paper 1 144.40 Cenibra 1 090.40 Veracel 799.10 Santher 796.10 Source: PortalExame. The five largest Brazilian producers of pulp are: Aracruz, Votorantim, Klabin, Suzano Bahia Sul and Cenibra. In 2006, Aracruz, Votorantim and Suzano Bahia Sul exported respectively, 96%, 90%, and 76%, of their production. Aracruz has grown approximately 11% a year in the last 15 years. Between 2006 and 2007, this company plans to double its present capacity. 67 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Growing presence of foreign capital Foreign capital participation in the paper and pulp sector has been increasing. In 2006 alone, the Central Bank registered the entry of US$ 1.6 billion in this sector. In 2004, foreign participation in the production of pulp, represented by the Japanese company Cenibra, the Finnish company Norske Skog and the American companies International Paper and Rigesa, was 1.753 million tons, 18.2% of the total 9.620 million tons produced in the country. In 2005, of the ten largest pulp producing companies in the country, four had foreign shareholders. The largest of them, Cenibra is 100% Japanese owned, after the JBP consortium purchased Vale do Rio Doce. International Paper bought out the former Champion and is now the owner of Chamex, Chamequinho, Chambril and HP paper brands. The Norwegian company Norske Skog Pisa, largest world manufacturer of printing paper, owns the only plant of this type of paper in the country, supplying approximately one third of Brazil’s domestic consumption of this paper.4 In 2006, when Veracel reached its full annual production capacity of 900,000 tons, with Swedish-Finnish Stora Enso participation, the foreign capital share in pulp production accounted for close to 20%: 2.203 million tons of a total 11.1 million tons (Brazilian production in 2006). In the paper segment, the American companies International Paper, Rigesa, Sonoco and Kimberly-Clark, the Franco-American company Schweitzer-Mauduit, the Finnish companies Norske Skog, Huhtamaki and Ahlstrom and the Franco-English Arjo Wiggins were responsible for a production of 1.356 million tons of paper in 2004, corresponding to 16.0% of a total production 8.452 million tons for that year. (Valor Econômico, 2006). Artificial forests, environmental problems As a large exporter of paper and pulp, the Brazilian industry suffers pressure from importing countries where the legislation, consumer organizations and environmentalists demand compliance with the environmental norms in effect in their countries. For example, in 1990, increased demands required the adoption of sustainable forest management practices and the extinction of pure chlorine in pulp whitening. According to Laschefski and Assis (2006), the high water consumption for production of paper and pulp is one of the worst impacts caused by the sector, that uses on average 57 m³ of water to produce one ton of pulp. Thus, 577,191,063 m³ of water were used in processing pulp, in 2005. Considering that the average estimated consumption for residential and commercial establishments in São Paulo is 4 68 Lia Hama. O avanço dos estrangeiros. Portal Exame, 11/08/05. PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL approximately 168 m³/year, the amount of water used by pulp processing companies would be sufficient to supply over 3.4 million homes, or approximately 11.9 million people, over the same period. Problems with water are also a constant in cultivation areas together with other environmental impacts which characterize monoculture activities. The available water tends to decrease as a result of the high consumption which certain species, such as eucalyptus, need to grow. “Also, due to the fast growth cycles of plantations – between 5 and 7 years – as can be observed, the quantity of water changes dramatically, in comparison with normal conditions. Some inhabitants interviewed in 2004 in the municipalities of Curvelo and Felixlândia, confirmed that there was a sudden abundance of water after all trees were felled at the same time in areas near springs. However, because of the high content of solids in suspension, and chemicals from soil in deforested areas, the water was not suitable for human consumption. Eucalyptus plantations thus cause significant alterations even in areas beyond the plantations.” (Laschefski and Assis, 2006) The cultivation of eucalyptus and pine trees in large monoculture plantations depends heavily on agrichemicals; therefore soil and superficial/spring water contamination cannot be avoided, even with controlled application of the chemicals. Paper and pulp production also generate indirect impacts, especially with regard to high energy consumption. According to Célio Bermann (2004) in 2004, the paper and pulp sector was responsible for 8% energy consumption for industrial purposes and 3.5% of the total energy consumed in Brazil Charcoal The latest data published in December of 2007 by the IBGE on charcoal and firewood production in Brazil relate to 2006. In that year charcoal production increased 3.3%, for a total of 2.6 million tons. The charcoal obtained from felled trees declined by 15.7% (2.5 million tons), reversing the tendency observed since 1998. Overall charcoal production was 5.1 million tons, 6.9% less than in 2005. (IBGE, 2007) The main producing States of charcoal from artificial forests in 2006 were Minas Gerais (75.7%), Maranhão (9.8%), Bahia (3.1%), São Paulo (2.9%), and Mato Grosso do Sul (2.8%). The municipality of Buritizeiro, in Minas Gerais, with 446.8 thousand t, was responsible for 8.7% of Brazil’s total production. The largest national producers of charcoal obtained from timber are Mato Grosso do Sul (24.0%), Maranhão (19.0%), Bahia (14.5%), Goiás (11.4%), Minas Gerais (10.5%) and Pará (8.6%). 69 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS In 2006, 36 million cubic meters of firewood from artificial forests and 45.2 million cubic meters from natural forest timber were produced, for a total of 81.2 million cubic meters of firewood, or 0.4% more than in 2005. The main producers of firewood from artificial forests are the States of Rio Grande do Sul (37.1%), São Paulo (19.9%), Santa Catarina (13.7%), Paraná (13.6%) and Minas Gerais (7.2%). The largest firewood producing municipalities were Butiá (800,000 m³), Taquari (764,000 m³) and Santa Cruz do Sul (752,800 m³), all in the State of Rio Grande do Sul. Firewood from natural forest trees comes mainly from the States of Bahia (24.8%), Ceará (10.2%), Pará (8.6%), Maranhão (7.2%) and Paraná (6.2%). The largest producer of this type of firewood was the municipality of Euclides da Cunha (720,000 m³) in the State of Bahia. The National Energy Balance for 2007 also reveals that firewood and charcoal were responsible for approximately 12.5% of total domestic energy supply (EPE, 2008). The main consumer of charcoal is the steel industry, which accounts for 45% of all charcoal consumption in the country. (Brito, 2007) Secondly, comes the residential sector. Here wood is used for cooking and to a lesser degree, for heating. The annual quantity of timber used in this sector is greater than that consumed by sawmills. Brito (2007) estimates that at present, at least 30 million people depend on wood as the prime energy source for homes in Brazil. The third largest consumer of wood as an energy source is the industrial sector, excluding steel: cement, chemicals, food and beverages, paper and pulp, and ceramics. The greatest demand is by the segments of food and beverages and ceramics, which consume over 60% of total consumption (Brito, 2007). Agriculture is the fourth important consumer of wood for energy in the country, and though there is no precise data on the distribution of this consumption, it is believed that it is mainly used for drying grains and beans. By and large, the amount of timber consumed by this sector is significantly higher than that used for the manufacture of panels and similar products. We will analyze below, in greater detail, the use of charcoal by the steel sector, which, as already mentioned, is the largest consumer of this product in Brazil – 45% of the total consumption in 2006. Charcoal for steel production Many steel mills in Brazil use charcoal. Approximately 600 kilos of charcoal are used for every ton of iron produced, or about one ton of trees. The Brazilian Steel Institute (IBS), in May of 2008, announced that up to the end of 2015, the companies of this sector would invest approximately US$ 13.2 billion, to increase the annual installed capacity of steel production from 41 to 70 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL 80.6 million tons, an increase of almost 100%. These estimates are mainly based on domestic sales forecasts.5 The expansion plans of the steel industry have direct bearing on the production of charcoal, which at present is used for approximately one third of Brazil’s steel production. Besides this, about half the charcoal used in the steel industry comes from native forests. With this scenario, Abraf believes that by 2010, the additional volume of charcoal consumed would be 34 million cubic meters, or three quarters of the charcoal produced today. “The great majority of integrated mills use coke as a reducer. The production of pig iron using significant amounts of charcoal persists only in Brazil. In the 1960´s, the Brazilian government imposed severe import tariffs on coke which led some mills to establish companies for producing charcoal for their own use. The elimination of import tariffs on coke at the end of the 1980´s, led to a decrease in the use of charcoal on the part of some mills which depended on this product, such as Belgo-Mineira. However, a few large Brazilian mills such as Acesita and V&M Tubes, and some independent pig iron producers still use charcoal.” (Oliveira, 2007) The criticisms and campaigns on the part of and by the Brazilian civil society, have recently led to two important initiatives, whereby the steel mills from now on are to use only charcoal deriving from artificially planted forests. (Abraf, 2008) The first, by the Government of Minas Gerais in collaboration with private companies, seeks to expand the present area of artificially planted forests planted in the State, from 1.2 to 1.8 million hectares, leading to an increase of 50% over 8 years. The second is on the part of the mining and steel segments in the States of Pará and Maranhão, who are investing in eucalyptus plantations in the Carajás steel complex. A notable example is the Vale Florestal Amazônia project, of Vale do Rio Doce, that has budgeted US$ 200 million up to 2010, for planting 150,000 hectares of eucalyptus in degraded areas and recuperating 50,000 hectares of native forests. According to the IBGE (2007), charcoal production from extraction practices fell 15.7% in 2007, relatively to 2006, reversing the tendency observed since 1998. The increased international demand for iron and steel, however, is increasingly bringing pressure to bear on deforestation for production of charcoal. This is especially true for the native forests in Mato Grosso do Sul (Cerrado and Pantanal), Minas Gerais, Piauí and Pará. The list also includes charcoal illegally obtained from Paraguayan and Bolivian forests. Alfredo Molinas, Paraguayan Minister for the Environment, confirms that Brazilian smugglers are responsible for the large proportion of deforestation 5 Cirilo Junior. Siderúrgicas deverão dobrar capacidade de produção de aço até 2015. Folha Online, 15/05/08. 71 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS in that country, for the production of charcoal. According to the Minister, Brazilian buyers pay a higher price for charcoal from Paraguayan forests than domestic buyers, inducing peasants to abandon agricultural activities and dedicate themselves to exploiting the forests – a more lucrative venture – in many cases, without authorization from the Forestry Services.6 In the case of Bolivia, the MMX steel mill being installed in Corumbá and owned by the Brazilian businessman Eike Batista, was forbidden to operate in that country to prevent the destruction of its forests. The company was then established in Corumbá, and announced that it had bought charcoal from guess where, Bolivia. 7 According to an article published in the O Globo newspaper in June of 2008, Ibama, in an operation to prevent the illegal use of charcoal, imposed fines of R$ 414 million on 60 steel mills in Minas Gerais, Mato Grosso do Sul and Espírito Santo. Another R$ 70 million were levied on the charcoal producers. The inspectors identified a consumption of 800,000 cubic meters of illegally produced charcoal by the steel mills in the three States in 2007, sufficient to load 10,000 trucks, that strung out end to end, would occupy 200 Km of road. The Siderúrgica Alterosa S/A, with head offices in Minas Gerais, received the greatest number of fines for using charcoal illegally produced in Paraná and Pará. Secondly was Siderúrgica Mat Prima Ltda, for irregularities in five States. The list also includes MMX Metálicos Corumbá Ltda, belonging to Eike Batista, and Gerdau Aços Longos S/A. 8 According to Sonia Hess, a professor of the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil has no laws forbidding the use of native forests for charcoal production. The Brazilian Forestry Code establishes that steel and other industries that consume charcoal, firewood or other plant raw material are required to maintain forests for rational exploration or plant forests for their own use, directly or through partnerships.9 The problem, according to Professor Sonia, is that in its sole paragraph, the Code permits the competent authorities to determine a 5 to 10 year period for companies to achieve self-sufficiency. Thus, at present, steel mills and other large consumers may cut down native forests for 10 years without being penalized. 6 Paraguai culpa brasileiros por destruição de florestas. Gazeta Mercantil, 26/10/05. 7 Ato público contra desmatamento no Pantanal e Cerrado. Coalizão Rios Vivos, 08/08/07. www.riosvivos.org.br 8 Bernardo Mello Franco. Ibama multa siderúrgicas e carvoarias em R$ 484 milhões por uso ilegal de carvão. O Globo, 12/06/08. 9 Sonia Hess. Carvão vegetal de matas nativas: é necessário e urgente proibir. Jornal da Ciência, 28//06/07. 72 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL TABLE 7 Independent pig iron production from charcoal by state/region (tons) Year Minas Gerais % Carajás % Espírito Santo % M. Grosso do Sul % TOTAL 1993 4.158.727 86,6 398.354 8,3 245.743 5,1 0 0,0 4.802.824 1994 4.543.995 83,4 623.083 11,5 279.761 5,1 0 0,0 5.446.839 1995 4.118.810 80,0 632.216 12,3 334.269 6,5 60.300 1,2 5.145.595 1996 3.344.009 76,7 694.194 15,9 255.593 5,9 65.592 1,5 4.359.388 1997 3.486.668 73,2 942.632 19,8 250.470 5,3 82.800 1,7 4.762.570 1998 3.407.145 68,7 1.218.483 24,6 242.977 4,9 91.500 1,8 4.960.105 1999 3.664.352 67,8 1.390.543 25,8 252.520 4,7 93.998 1,7 5.401.413 2000 4.039.932 65,7 1.652.000 26,9 372.925 6,1 80.520 1,3 6.145.377 2001 4.005.548 61,5 2.021.500 31,1 387.185 5,9 96.000 1,5 6.510.233 2002 4.043.163 59,8 2.245.000 33,2 375.727 5,6 96.000 1,4 6.759.890 1,2 8.103.864 2003 5.193.060 64,1 2.364.500 29,2 450.304 5,5 96.000 2004 6.302.964 62,5 3.102.750 30,7 499.358 5,0 180.000 1,8 10.085.170 2005 5.797.999 59,3 3.228.287 33,0 505.795 5,2 241.653 2,5 9.773.832 2006 5.353.664 56,5 3.452.400 36,5 376.755 4,0 282.800 3,0 9.455.716 Source: AMS. Labor conditions in charcoal production The question of the labor conditions in the charcoal works for its production for the steel industry merits mention. Kiln workers are permanently subject to harmful working conditions from heat, soot, smoke, noise, gases. The most common form of charcoal production is manual and by contracting third parties and is responsible for severe health problems such as cancer due to inhalation of harmful gases. The lack of stability and absence of basic worker rights such as a defined work load, weekly rest periods, vacations, social security and insurance, and accident insurance are the hallmarks of labor relations in this sort. (Laschefski and Assis, 2006) Distinct labor organization frameworks are, therefore, found in pig iron and steel production activities. On the one hand, we have steel mills with workers duly registered and which comply with international labor standards, thus allowing them access to export markets, and on the other, the unhealthy conditions of rudimentary charcoal works with predatory use of natural resources. 73 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Formal charges against the conditions of charcoal workers, and the devastation of the environment which characterizes this activity, have compelled mining and steel companies to include social and environmental clauses in their supply contracts. The Federal Government, through both Ibama and the Ministry of Labor, has also carried out stricter inspections in order to reduce illegal activities in these segments. Production of pig iron in the Carajás Complex The Steel Complex of Carajás, a region comprising part of the States of Pará, Tocantins and Maranhão, is the largest producer of iron ore in the world. There are 14 steel industries concentrated within a scant 150 km radius, and includes large-scale charcoal production for industrial ends. According to Marcelo Carneiro, professor of the Federal University of Maranhão (UFMA), the implantation of the Complex is directly related to the implementation of the Great Carajás Program (PGC) and to the decision of the federal government and the Pará and Maranhão State governments, to stimulate the implantation of pig iron production along the Carajás Railway. Pig iron industries were also attracted to the East Amazon region in the late 1980’s, because of subsidies granted by the Programa Grande Carajás, SUDAM and SUDENE – as well as the existence of abundant timber for charcoal production in the west of Maranhão and southeast Pará. 10 Still according to Marcelo Carneiro, pig iron production at Carajás almost doubled in the last ten years, from 384,000 tons in 1995 to 3.45 million tons in 2006. This means that, at present, approximately 11% of total pig iron production and over a third from independent producers (companies who do not own mills) are concentrated in the municipalities of Açailândia/MA e Marabá/PA, in Amazônia Oriental. Today there are 19 steel mills in the State of Pará, with an installed capacity of 2 million tons of pig iron per year. Their furnaces consume approximately 4.4 million cubic meters of charcoal a year. With the programmed start-up of an additional eight industrial mills, the annual consumption of charcoal will increase to 5.8 million cubic meters. Another 2.2 million cubic meters of charcoal are sent every year to steel mills in Maranhão. There are also 25,000 additional small iron works, of which 5,000 with dubious licensing, which hire 45,000 unregistered workers, in accordance with Pará government data. These industries consume 12 to 14 million cubic meters of charcoal from firewood in the production of pig iron. There are also 11 lumber yards in the region 10 Marcelo Carneiro. A evolução da atividade siderúrgica na Amazônia Oriental e as questões sociais e ambientais a serem enfrentadas. Jornal Pequeno, 15/06/07. www.jornalpequeno.com.br. 74 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL producing 3.3 million cubic meters of logs, as well as extensive cattle raising and soybeans plantations in this region. All these activities, especially the production of charcoal, have, for decades, been exerting pressure on existing forest resources and are the main cause for the deforestation of the Amazon region. It is estimated that 40% of the region’s forest has been destroyed.11 In January of 2006, Ibama fined the Carajás steel mills, in Pará – who had been in operation for more than 10 years -, over R$ 500 million, and those in Mato Grosso do Sul, over R$ 23 million, because of their use of charcoal illegally obtained from native forests. In April of 2007, approximately 21,000 cubic meters of charcoal – equivalent to 350 loaded trucks – were confiscated by Ibama near the pig iron factories of Marabá (PA). This arrest generated over R$ 150 million in fines, mainly for the purchase of charcoal from unproven origins. In total, eight pig iron producers were inspected by Ibama, in five of which the charcoal was seized: Cosipar, Sidenorte, Simara, Sidepar and Usimar. Cosipar was again closed down for operating without an environmental permit. This mill had been shut down before, but restarted operations after obtaining a temporary injunction against the decision. Ibama, however, appealed and had the injunction suspended. During this operation, Ibama also inspected charcoal works and lumber yards in Pará, confiscating 2,700 cubic meters of lumber, and shutting down 239 charcoal kilns according to the Repórter Brasil news agency. 12 The inspections were carried out in the municipalities of Dom Eliseu, Paragominas, Rondon do Pará and Ulianópolis, which are responsible for almost all the charcoal used in the Marabá pig iron installations and a majority of those in Maranhão. Another result of these actions was the discovery that steel mills had been purchasing charcoal from companies that fraudulently by-passed forest activity controls. According to an Ibama survey, the steel mills operating in the Carajás Complex consume approximately seven million cubic meters of charcoal a year – equivalent to about 100,000 hectares of deforested land. Ibama estimates that 70,000 hectares of forest are felled to produce charcoal from unknown origins. Studies carried out in 2006 by the historian Maurílio de Abreu Monteiro, professor of the Amazon Higher Studies Nucleus of the Federal University of Pará (UFPA), show that non-authorized felling of trees supplies 57.5% of the wood used by charcoal kilns.13 11 Ribamar Ribeiro Junior. Distrito Florestal de Carajás: Engodo do Governo para satisfazer Guseiros e Madeireiros!!!, 17/05/07. www.rIbamarribeirojunior.blogspot.com. 12 André Campos. Carvão irregular gera R$ 150 milhões em multas a siderúrgicas. Repórter Brasil, 24/04/07. 13 Paula Scheidt. Desmatamento ilegal fornece quase 60% da matéria-prima de siderúrgicas. Carbono Brasil, 05/08/07. 75 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS According to Norberto Neves, coordinator of the above mentioned Ibama operation, illegal activities associated with charcoal works are the norm in the State of Pará – which are not only related to environmental issues, but frequently employ workers under slave-like conditions. About 80% of the charcoal works are irregular, and the majority is not registered. He confirms also that among the licensed operations, some have more kilns and a higher production than allowed by the environmental permit. In mid-2007, Vale do Rio Doce announced it would no longer supply iron ore to pig iron producers in Pará and Maranhão that use charcoal from areas where its production contributes to deforestation in the Amazon. In its contracts to supply iron ore to the steel mills of the Carajás Complex, the company has included items that not only require the latter to avoid deforestation but also to include labor contracts with their employees to prevent any debasing situation reminiscent of slavery. Besides pressure by Vale, the Pará pig iron producers face a lawsuit for environmental dumping brought against them by the U.S. in the World Trade Organization (WTO). 14 The Forest District of Carajás Recently, the Ministry for the Environment has begun studies for the creation of the Forest District of Carajás. During 2007 the Ministry also promoted seminars and public sessions to present and discuss the project. The District would encompass 25 to 30 million hectares, 40% of which are already deforested. The conservation areas and indigenous reserves which are protected by law, correspond to 11% of the projected area (7 indigenous reserves and 1.5 million hectares under the guardianship of Vale do Rio Doce in the Carajás area). Another 3 million hectares consist of settlements (approximately 400). For Tasso Azevedo, Director of the Brazilian Forestry Service, “the main activity in the Forest District will have to be reforestation and recuperation of areas with species and systems that will allow the steel industry to be supplied by a sustainable source of charcoal. The plan is to create a chain of production that will transfer workers from deforestation activities to planting forests for charcoal production”.15 The Project calls for small farmers in the region to start planting eucalyptus forests. However, it does not have the support of the social movements or rural workers union agencies. Fetraf and Fetagri have already manifested their opposition to the project in the public sessions. Other movements, such as the MST, CPT, 14 João Domingos. Regra da Vale protege a Amazônia. O Estado de São Paulo, 22/07/07. 15 Ademir Braz. Distrito Florestal de Carajás: só para alguns. www.forumcarajas.org.br. 76 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL Peasant Women’s Movement, CIMI, Cepasp, Copserviços, SDDH, Fórum Carajás, chose not to participate in the sessions. The representatives of farmer-settlers also oppose the idea of participation in planting eucalyptus for charcoal production. For Edmilson Valentim, Executive Secretary of the Forum Carajás, there are no guarantees that the steel mills will produce charcoal in a sustainable and legal form, which is more expensive than the exploration of native forests. Besides, the expansion of eucalyptus plantations would aggravate environmental and social degradation, by expelling peasants from their land.16 On the other hand, companies want changes in the legislation that requires the preservation of 80% of the forests on properties in Amazônia Legal. Ricardo Nascimento, President of the Maranhão State Union of the Steelworks Industry, confirms that “only through the decrease of 50% of the forests will local companies be able to sustain themselves”, because there are many previous agrarian and deforestation issues. The towns included in the Forest District depend almost exclusively on the production of other States for their food products such as rice, black beans, manioc flour and vegetables. As a result, many of the vegetables commonly found in Brazilian homes, are not only too expensive for the local population, but of bad quality due to the time elapsed from harvests in distant regions. Mato Grosso do Sul The demand in Mato Grosso do Sul for reforested timber, considering only the industrial installations already in operation or about to be activated, as is the case in most of the Corumbá mineral and steel complex, is sufficient to consume almost five times the present production, according to estimates by the Association of Producers and Consumers of Planted Forests of Mato Grosso do Sul.17 Present production of charcoal in the State is approximately 2 million cubic meters, the majority of which or 1.3 million cubic meters, is consumed in the State of Minas Gerais. These numbers reveal that in effect, the steel mills in Mato Grosso do Sul and Minas Gerais are responsible for the extensive deforestation in Mato Grosso do Sul. For example, Sideruna, which was inaugurated in 2007 in Campo Grande-MS, consumes charcoal in quantities equivalent to over one thousand tons per day of native forest trees. The State’s Public Ministry brought a lawsuit against the company 16 Mário Osava. Eucaliptos e siderurgia incendeiam a Amazônia Oriental. Terramerica, 02/08/07. www.tierramerica.info. 17 Sônia Hess. As siderúrgicas e as florestas. O Estado de MS, 24/04/07. 77 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS seeking to forestall the start up of its predatory production activities. However, two years later, the company was already operating and the Justice Department had not yet drawn up a formal sentence. In the Pantanal, a mining and steel pole which is being implanted in the vicinity of Corumbá foresees the consumption of charcoal made from over 18,000 tons/ month of native trees from Brazilian, Bolivian and Paraguayan forests. The enterprise includes MMX steel mill, already in construction, belonging to the Brazilian megabusinessman Eike Batista. In July of 2007, State Congressman Amarildo Cruz (PT), of Mato Grosso do Sul, submitted a Bill forbidding the production, transportation and consumption of charcoal from native forest trees. The Bill also creates a fund for reforestation, with resources supplied by companies who use coke, natural gas or petroleum derivatives as fuel.18 GRAPH 3 Production of charcoal using artificial forests vs. native forests – Brazil: 2000-2006 Source: AMS 18 Allison Ishy. Deputado apresenta Projeto de Lei que proíbe uso de carvão vegetal de florestas nativas. 02/07/07. www.riosvivos.org.br. 78 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL Small farming According to Bracelpa, at the end of 2007 305,000 hectares of trees had been planted on approximately 10,000 small and medium-sized properties through the so-called forest incentive programs, promoted by its members. (Bracelpa, 2008) Apart from the large forests belonging to private companies, the planting of forests is becoming increasingly popular as an alternative among small and mediumsized rural properties, especially in view of the programs of forest incentives created by large paper and pulp, steel and plywood panel industries. According to Mendes (2005), The National Forest Program – PNF is the main political instrument for the artificial forests sector. The Program’s goal for 20042007 was to plant 500,000 hectares of forests per year, 200,000 hectares on small and medium-sized properties and 300,000 through company programs. Still according to this author, there is an increasing interest in the demand for financing for planting forests in Brazil. The principal national financing programs for the artificial cultivation of forests are: • BRDES-FINEM: for large-scale projects of over R$ 10 million, with a loan portfolio of R$ 730 million, in 2005. • Propflora: for medium and large rural producers with funds of R$ 42.34 million (July 2004 to August 2005); and • Pronaf Forest: for small rural properties with funds of R$ 8.23 million (July 2004 to August 2005). The participation of small and medium-sized rural property owners in eucalyptus and pine tree cultivation is financed by the Banco do Brasil through the BB Forest program, which is responsible for operating two of these official funds, Propflora and Pronaf Forest. According to Mendes (2005), the BB Florestal provides financing not only to mini and small farmers, up to large enterprises, cooperatives, trading, exporting and processing companies of forest products. Private forest promotion programs In these programs, the companies provide technology, cuttings and technical assistance to the producers, while the latter guarantee to sell them their production, echoing processes existing elsewhere in Brazil in other forms of agriculture. An example of this is the Forest Savings Program, launched by Votorantim (VCP) in November of 2004, in Rio Grande do Sul. The program is aimed at the cultivation of eucalyptus on rural properties in the vicinity of the company’s plantation areas, in partnership with ABN AMRO Real Bank. It includes financing at a fixed rate of 9% p/a, and guarantees the purchase of wood by Votorantim. 79 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS The Program is for two cycles of eucalyptus production (14 years) and is similar to the integrated production models implanted for other types of crops such as soy, tobacco, etc. The farmer receives an advance to finance planting as from the first year, and the purchase price is pre-established. Votorantim supplies eucalyptus and native forest tree cuttings for reforestation, as well as technical assistance. With the help of the Technical Assistance and Rural Extension Company (Emater), Votorantim monitors the farmer during cultivation and maintenance of eucalyptus forests during the first two years. At the beginning of 2008, there were approximately 600 producers of Rio Grande do Sul registered with the program, corresponding to over 11,000 hectares of plantations in that State under this regime. The plan is to expand cultivation by at 7.1 thousand hectares per year, totaling approximately 30,000 hectares in this cycle. According to Mendes (2005), the main reasons why companies adopt this strategy are the reduction of investments for land purchases, lower costs for timber, diversification of raw material sources and a greater integration with farmers in the vicinity of their installations. For producers, the forest promotion program is an alternative to traditionally earned income from their properties, which allows them to use under-utilized or idle areas. However, a more detailed analysis in 2004 by Silviconsult Engenharia in its study “Incentives and Monetary Mechanisms for the Maintenance of Sustainable Forests in the South of Brazil”, described by Mendes, shows that the present models of promotion present risks to economic, social and environmental maintenance of rural producers, especially small farmers, among which: • rural exodus, due to the interest of “self-employed professionals” in buying small and medium-sized properties to benefit from this model to insure a future income for their retirement; • substitution of native forests normally found in legal reserve areas, by pine and eucalyptus plantations, especially on small properties; • adoption of management systems which in fact, favor the industrial objectives of the promoter and not the improvement of the rural producer’s income; • promotion restricted to properties of over 20 hectares to minimize planting and harvesting costs; • government actions as helping agent (technical assistance, distribution of cuttings, etc.) which are oriented more to the promoters objectives than those of the producer; • creating a much higher offer relatively to demand in the medium and long terms, thereby generating little or no profits from this activity; 80 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL • inadequate salaries for the rural producer’s work; • “oligopsonic” condition of the industries, concentrating promotion around their installations and not offering market alternatives to the producer; and • preference given by the promoters to leasing, partnerships, advance income and sales, as against the concept of donation. (Mendes, 2005) For State Congressman Friar Sergio Görgen (PT-RS), in supporting the large paper mills, the BNDES is financing the greatest anti-agrarian reform in the country, especially as the sector has occupied more and more areas claimed by the landless farmers, in Rio Grande do Sul. The practice of promotion, he claims, becomes an imposition on small property owners in the regions of eucalyptus cultivation, because it leaves no other options and becomes a form of aggravated harassment on the part of companies. “At first, it seems like sound business sense, but after a few years, the system becomes disadvantageous due to the progressive indebtedness of the farmers”, explains Frey Sergio. He also believes this practice is a means to circumvent the law, which requires the elaboration of Environmental Impact Studies for areas over one thousand hectares with continuous cultivation of eucalyptus. “Production fragmentation has been a means for not enforcing the law” he concludes.19 As shown by Laschefski and Assis (2006), the occupation of small and mediumsized properties, close to the extensive plantations of large companies, has required a reconfiguration of crop plantations and a homogenization of the landscape. In a literal sense, competition with other agricultural products and the transformations in geography is made clear in the report by the Brazilian Association of Planted Forest Producers: “The economic results generated by activities of forest cultivation and the industrial processing of wood, have contributed to alter the profile of certain regions in the country. As an example, companies located in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, where historically the economic activity was concentrated in annual agricultural crops, have started a wide ranging program of eucalyptus cultivation as a supply source for pulp production, and possibly, strengthening the lumber industry [..]. In Minas Gerais [..] in specific cases, traditional coffee growing areas are being substituted by eucalyptus.” 19 Verena Glass. Deserto verde: BNDES financia R$ 619,3 mi para indústria de celulose no ES e RS. Agência Carta Maior, 08/12/06. 81 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Conflicts in the State of Espírito Santo The monoculture of eucalyptus in the State of Espírito Santo was started in the second half of the 1960´s. As demonstrated by Daniela Meirelles and Marcelo Calazans (2006), a large part of this crop was planted on Federal or communal land areas, traditionally settled by peasants, indigenous populations, and descendants of negro slave fugitives, who for the most part, had no formal land titles. A case in point is the presence of Aracruz Celulose, whose headquarters are located 70 km from Vitória, the State capital. The company is today the largest world producer of bleached eucalyptus based pulp, with a production capacity of 3 million tons per year, in its Barra do Riacho (ES) and Guaíba (RS) installations. The company’s third manufacturing unit – Veracel Celulose – is located in the municipality of Eunápolis, in the south of the State of Bahia, and is operated in partnership with Stora Enso (each with 50% shares). Aracruz also owns a private specialized port, Portocel, in Espírito Santo, through which almost all the company’s products are exported. It has tree plantations in the States of Espírito Santo, Bahia, Minas Gerais and Rio Grande do Sul, with approximately 279,000 hectares of eucalyptus plantations. Its major shareholders are Votorantim, the Norwegian company Lorentzen, the Safra Group (each with 28%) and the BNDES, with 12.5%. In a note distributed in August of 2007, during the Extraordinary National Congress of Journalists, the Journalists Union informed that the descendents of Africans (quilombolas) and indigenous populations are fighting to repossess land areas which Aracruz Celulose either seized by force or bought at ridiculously low prices during the dictatorship 40 years ago. From the quilombolas the company seized the major part of the 50,000 hectares belonging to them. From the indigenous, Aracruz appropriated 40,000 hectares, of which 18,070 hectares the Federal Government recognizes to be indigenous reserve. Aracruz also took over the properties of small farmers, and destroyed 50,000 hectares of the Atlantic Forest.20 According to a survey by the legal department of Funai (National Indian Foundation), during the 1950´s and 1960´s, the government of the State of Espírito Santo expropriated land traditionally occupied by indigenous people. The area was later passed on to Aracruz, who then started planting eucalyptus.21 Edelvira Tureta, Head of Funai´s indigenous station in the municipality of Caieiras Velhas, says that there were tupiniquim family settlements spread over the land now belonging to Aracruz. According to data from the Indigenous Missionary Council (CIMI), there used to be at least 37 tupiniquim villages in the region during the first 20 Ubervalter Coimbra. Jornalistas repudiam manipulação da notícia em favor da Aracruz. Século Diário, 06/08/07. 21 FUNAI diz que Aracruz invadiu área indígena. Gazeta do Povo, 28/08/06. 82 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL four decades of the XX century. Of all of these, only four are left which over the years, received most of the native indigenous displaced from other village areas. In the municipality of Aracruz, the native indigenous issue only received official attention in mid 1970´s, with the creation of a Funai station, and 6.5 thousand hectares were set aside for the native populations of the municipality. After intense discussions, however, an alternative agreement was signed with Aracruz. Finalized in 1983, the demarcation contained two thousand hectares less territory than originally claimed. Basically, this included the area of the remainder of villages, with no physical area for continuing the traditional indigenous lifestyle as it used to be not too long ago.22 On this occasion, the tupiniquins were not the only indigenous population to fight for land in Aracruz. In 1967, a group of a few dozens of Guarani indigenous from Paraguay arrived at the municipality, after a trek of over 20 years. Before deciding on settling definitely near Caieiras Velhas, they had gone through Rio Grande do Sul, São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais. In the municipality of Aracruz, an area of 11,009 hectares owned by Aracruz Celulose, had been claimed by the region’s Tupiniquim and Guarani communities since 1996. The technical and anthropological report on the original occupation of the land, drawn up by Funai, proving the constitutional right of the indigenous populations over the area, were published in the Diário Oficial in March of 2006, and were contested by the company with the Ministry of Justice. Finally, on 27 August 2007, the Minister of Justice, Tarso Genro, signed the decrees which declared that the 18,027 hectares claimed by both groups, as indigenous land. The region of Sapê do Norte, which includes the municipalities of São Mateus and Conceição da Barra, in the north of the State of Espírito Santo, used to be inhabited by approximately 12,000 quilombola families, or some 60,000 descendents of Africans, up to the end of the 1960´s. However, with the arrival of Aracruz Celulose, that confiscated these areas, the number of inhabitants declined to 1,200 families who still today, live in small communities in the midst of the company’s eucalyptus plantations. In May of 2007, Incra published a decree by which an area of 9,500 hectares is recognized as quilombo territory belonging to the Linharinho community. 82% of the territory was occupied by eucalyptus plantations of Aracruz Celulose, in this period. There were still 48 families in this region, living on only 147 hectares. The Linharinho Community was the first to be recognized as quilombola in the State of Espírito Santo, but studies in the communities of São Domingos, São Jorge, Serraria and São Cristóvão are already being concluded, lacking only publication of the Incra decree. 22 André Campos. Próximos à cidade, índios buscam espaço para retomar velhos hábitos. Repórter Brasil, 30/04/07. 83 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS In July of 2007, approximately 500 inhabitants of the quilombola communities of Sapê do Norte occupied the area belonging to the Community of Linharinho, in Conceição da Barra, to exert pressure for demarcation of the territory recognized by Incra for quilombola communities. The proposal of the quilombolas in occupying this land is the formation of a large settlement in the area, for planting of Atlantic Forest and fruit tree cuttings by the community members, as well as the construction of homes for its families.23 Eucalyptus in the South of the State of Bahia In the extreme south of the State of Bahia, eucalyptus plantations occupy approximately 700,000 hectares. Of these, Veracel owns almost 147,000, 73,000 with eucalyptus plantations. The company also owns a pulp processing industry which produces 900,000 tons a year of bleached eucalyptus pulp. According to a study by Cepedes – Center of Study and Research for the Extreme South of Bahia, with the arrival of the paper and pulp companies, the State lost 70% of its native forests in fifteen years, from 1970 to 1985. According to recent studies by the Ministry for the Environment, on the extreme south of the State of Bahia, today only 4% of the original Atlantic Forest still exists in areas of forest reserves. In this region, it is estimated that half the agricultural land is owned by paper and pulp companies. Still according to Cepedes, there are approximately 12,000 families camped along the roads. The forced evacuation from rural areas of quilombolas, small farmers and indigenous people has resulted in a significant increase of shanty-towns and the disintegration of family units and groups. The expansion of eucalyptus plantations in the region occupied the fertile agricultural lands and forced the displacement of dozens of small producers. The town of Eunápolis is responsible for the largest rural exodus in the country, over the last few years. The study shows that approximately 60% of the farmers left the rural zone – and the average rate in Brazil is 28%. The increased rate of displacement coincides with the expansion of monoculture plantations in the region, which started in the 1990´s.24 Based on studies carried out in the region, Claudia Santana and José Luís Caetano point out that, “the introduction of eucalyptus cultivation has brought serious risks to the water, soil, local fauna and flora resources, and also contributed to making small agricultural ventures unviable. All agricultural land has been occupied, including the areas set aside for agrarian reform, indigenous populations and the around conservation areas, with important Atlantic Forest reserves.” (Caetano and Santos, 2004) 23 Rede Alerta contra o Deserto Verde. Comunidades quilombolas reocupam território em posse da Aracruz Celulose. 24/07/07. 24 ADITAL. Êxodo na Bahia. 27/10/06. www.adital.com.br. 84 PAPER, PULP AND CHARCOAL Similarly to what occurs in the State of Espírito Santo, the traditional lifestyles of indigenous communities such as the Pataxó and Tupinambá, as well as landless people and fishermen, are being destroyed, as a result of the impacts generated by the expansion of eucalyptus plantations. Three of the largest industries of the sector, Bahia Sul, Aracruz and Veracel, operate in the region. In the region of Barra do Cahy, Point Zero of the Discovery of Brazil, a Pataxó Front for Resistance and Struggle claims approximately 30,000 hectares which are today covered with eucalyptus plantations. In the Gaxuma village, located in the east of the area, the indigenous informed that Veracel is destroying native plants, palm groves, altering the landscape and contaminating water sources. In Barra Velha, close to the beach, the indigenous, acting on their own account, managed to put a stop to some plantations, but are unable to effectively hinder the expansion by Veracel. In Prado, last municipality in the region to introduce eucalyptus plantations, the migration of the original population is repeated towards the outskirts of the town. 85 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Bibliography ABRAF. Anuário Estatístico, 2008. www.abraf.com.br AMS. Anuário Estatístico, 2007. www.silviminas.com.br. BERMANN, C. Exportação brasileira de produtos intensivos em energia: implicações sociais e ambientais, in Exportando a nossa natureza. Produtos intensivos em energia: implicações sociais e ambientais. Rio de Janeiro. FASE, 2004. BRACELPA. Desempenho do setor em 2006 e projeção para 2007. Bracelpa, May 2007. www.Bracelpa.org.br. Setor de Celulose e Papel. São Paulo. Bracelpa, May 2008. BRITO, J. O uso energético da madeira. Revista de estudos avançados, n° 21 (59), ESALQ. Piracicaba, 2007. CNA. Agropecuária brasileira: uma visão geral. June 2007. Available at www.cna.org.br. DORES, A. et al. Panorama Setorial: Setor Florestal, Celulose e Papel. BNDES, 2006. Available at www.bndes.gov.br/conhecimento/liv_perspectivas/04.pdf. EPE. BEN 2008. Balanço Preliminar, informe à imprensa. May of 2008. FERREIRA, S. Da fartura à escassez: a agroindústria de celulose e o fim dos territórios comunais no extremo norte do Espírito Santo. USP, May 2002. Available at www.teses.usp.br. IBGE. Produção da Extração Vegetal e da Silvicultura – 2006. IBGE, December 2007. LASCHEFSKI, K. and ASSIS, W. A produção de Eucalipto e Pinus no Brasil. GT Energia FBOMS, August 2006, mimeo. MEIRELLES, D. and CALAZANS, M. H2O para celulose X água para todas as línguas: o conflito ambiental no entorno da Aracruz Celulose S/A – Espírito Santo. FASE. Vitória, 2006. MENDES, J. Estratégias e mecanismos financeiros para florestas plantadas. FAO. Curitiba, November 2005. MINISTÉRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO. Estudo da dimensão territorial do PPA: estudos prospectivos setoriais. Documento preliminar para discussão. Brasília, January 2007. www.planejamento.gov.br. MONTEBELLO, A. and BACHA, C. Estrutura de mercado e desempenho da indústria brasileira de celulose: período de 1980 a 2005. Pesquisa & Debate, SP, vol. 18, n. 1, 2007. OLIVEIRA, V. Siderurgia. Relatório setorial final. FINEP, 2007. SBS. Fatos e números do Brasil Florestal. SBS, December 2007. SILVA, CAETANO J.L. and SANTOS, C. S. Os impactos do plantio de eucalipto e da produção de celulose em comunidades tradicionais no extremo sul baiano. In: II Reunião da Associação Nacional de Pós-Graduação de Pesquisa em Ambiente e Sociedade, ANPPAS. Idaiatuba-SP, 2003. VALOR ECONÔMICO. A indústria de celulose e papel. Análise setorial, 2006. www.valoronline.com.br. VOTORANTIM. Relatório Anual de Sustentabilidade 2006. www.votorantim.com.br. Relatório Anual de Sustentabilidade 2007. www.votorantim.com.br. 86 4 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS Production from agriculture and cattle raising will reach new records in 2008. Over the next decade the areas cultivated with soybeans, sugarcane, corn and artificial forests will expand greatly. Average projected numbers for the next ten years indicate that artificial forests will occupy 15 million hectares – an increase of 150% in the period. Sugarcane will cover 10.3 million hectares – 50% more than at present – and grains, 63.8 million hectares – 15.7 million hectares above the present acreage. According to Cogo Consultoria, the new agricultural expansion will occur particularly in the north of the States of Mato Grosso, Maranhão, Piauí, Tocantins, Pará and west of Bahia.1 Exports of Brazilian agribusiness products should also reach a new record in 2008. Between June of 2007 and May of 2008, export revenues were an historic high of US$ 64 billion, 18.3% over the total exported between June of 2007 and May of 2007. Apart from the increased price of many agribusiness products exported by Brazil, the volume exported also increased – significantly, in some cases. A continued increase in consumption of meat, especially in Asia, global food price increases, and the introduction of agrifuels, are the main reasons for high Brazilian exports of agribusiness products during the period. It should be noted that meat, soy and so-called forest products were the principal items that stimulated the increase in exports. In the case of soy, the main reason for increased export revenues are higher international prices, resulting from a decline of almost 15 million tons in U.S. harvests due to the expansion of corn plantations for ethanol production. 1 Segundo consultoria, Brasil será a ‘bola da vez’ do agronegócio mundial. Gazeta Mercantil, 08/09/07. 87 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS The increase in domestic U.S. consumption of corn and the consequent reduction of exports of this grain has created an opportunity for Brazilian corn exports in the international market. Exports of this grain have reached record high volumes and revenue. Between January and May of 2008, shipments totaled 2.57 million tons, an increase of 8.1% over the same period in 2007. International sales of ethanol and forest products have also been increasing steadily. OECD and FAO predict that by 2016, Brazilian meat exports will account for almost 30% of total world exports. These numbers demonstrate that, along with world consumption of meat, the growing use of agrifuels has led to a greater impetus of Brazilian exports of agribusiness In their latest Agricultural Outlook, the annual publication of the OECD and FAO, which contains projections for 2008-2017, these institutions confirm that for the first time, increasing demand for agricultural products for fuel production may become the focus of attention. They estimate that at least in the medium term, prices of agricultural products will remain above historical levels. The study also foresees that Brazilian production of vegetable oils, namely soy, will achieve an annual average growth rate of 3.9% in the next ten years. Brazil will thus probably surpass the U.S. as the world’s most important exporter of these oils, by 2009. All information and estimates make clear that the international agricultural products market will continue to stimulate the expansion of cattle farming products for exports. The possibilities for an expanding domestic market for ethanol and biodiesel are also contributing factors to increased production of these products. Increased productivity will account for part of this production growth rate. The territorial expansion of various crops and of cattle farming is, however, already a reality. In some Southern and Southeastern States such as São Paulo, the expansion of certain crops has happened at the expense of others, since the availability of areas appropriate for cattle raising activities has reached the limit. In other regions, such as the Midwest, sugarcane and corn plantations are taking over other crop areas or forcing their migration to other regions. Overall, the production of Brazilian agricultural and cattle raising activities points to continuing record breaking results. Export products such as soy, cotton, corn, forest products and meat, continue to increase. The fossil fuel substitution programs in many countries also point to an increased agrifuel market, of which Brazil plans to participate with a significant share. Similarly, increased world consumption of steel and the dependence on imports of coke will lead to an increased consumption of charcoal by the Brazilian steel industry. There is also a growing tendency for steel production to migrate from developed to developing countries. As has been mentioned, in the case of Brazil, projections of the Brazilian Steel Institute show that the installed capacity for steel production should double between 2008 and 2015. 88 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS The perspectives for growth of the world consumption of agrifuels The International Energy Agency – IEA predicts that by 2030, world consumption of agrifuels will be ten times what it is today. With this, the mixture of renewable fuels for consumption by transport vehicles, which is presently 1%, will increase to 7% in the next 23 years. The Agency also foresees that this increase will be due mainly to ethanol, much more than biodiesel. Brazilian production of agrifuels should increase more rapidly than that of other countries, from 316,000 equivalent barrels of oil per day in 2007, to 528,000 barrels in 2012, thus reaching a third of total world production.2 For the OECD and FAO, the scenario is the same: in 2017, Brazil will be responsible for 32% of all ethanol produced in the world, only being surpassed by the U.S. (OECD-FAO, 2008). Today, the corn based ethanol produced in the U.S. allows for a mixture of less than 4% of gasoline, considering the consumption of automotive fuels in that country. The goal of the U.S., reconfirmed by President George W. Bush during his visit to Brazil is to reduce the consumption of fossil fuels by 20% in 2017. This means that, over the next ten years, only in the U.S, demand for ethanol may reach 132 billion liters per year. The production of biodiesel, almost all of which is made from soy oil which is responsible for 90% of this production, in the U.S., is also on the increase. Significant investments have also been made in research for the development of biodiesel from other sources, notably a some types of oil-rich algae (Food & Water Network, 2007). After the U.S. and Brazil, Europe is the third largest world producer of ethanol, mainly in France, Spain and Sweden. European ethanol is, in great part, produced from wheat and, to a lesser degree, from beetroot. Europe is the largest world producer of biodiesel, being responsible for over 90% of global production. The main producer is Germany, whose biodiesel is mainly produced from rapeseed. France and Italy also have significant production of biodiesel. Within the framework of the European Union member countries, an agreement foresees the substitution of 10% of diesel oil by biodiesel, up to 2015. Today the mixture is 1% approximately. The European Union is also developing a system of certification to insure that the agrifuels produced by member countries or imported, be made through sustainable processes throughout – beginning with crop planting. This also presupposes that the producers must reduce the emission of global warming gases caused by industrial processes, transportation and use of fuels, by at least 10% between 2011 and 2020, so that the goals for reducing gas emission in the European Union become feasible. 2 Impacto de biocombustíveis ainda será pequeno. Valor Econômico, 10/07/07. 89 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS China also now produces significant amounts of ethanol, mainly from manioc root and sweet potatoes but in contrast to other countries, the Chinese government has restricted the production of this fuel because of the effects on food markets. China opted to reserve its grain producing areas exclusively for growing food crops. The limited availability of water in that country was also a deciding factor. All over the world, the programs for ethanol and biodiesel production are gaining force. On the other hand, it is evident that the majority of developed countries do not have the necessary natural resources to supply their domestic markets. In the U.S., for example, according to IEA calculations, it would be necessary to reserve 20% of arable land for corn plantations in order to reach the country’s 5.75% agrifuel needs up to 2010. Japan, which plans to add 5% ethanol to its automotive gasoline up to 2010, has been seeking partnerships with Brazil to insure supplies not only of ethanol, but also of biodiesel. In the same way that it supported the expansion of soy plantations in the Brazilian Midwest through Prodecer, the Japanese government is ready to finance ethanol and biodiesel projects in Brazil. This support will include construction of the necessary infrastructure for transporting the products to export facilities. Perspectives for Brazil Brazil has an enormous domestic potential for agrifuel consumption – both of ethanol and biodiesel. The low costs of sugarcane based ethanol production as well as the successive increases in petroleum prices, suggest the possibility of accelerated substitution of automotive gasoline by sugarcane ethanol. The present flexible motors in cars make this substitution feasible. However, this tendency may not become fully viable, since the prospects are that ethanol will become an export commodity, a view stimulated by the Brazilian government. Also, the increase in exports of ethanol may cause its scarcity in the domestic market, forcing an increase in price that would discourage this process of substitution. Areas of expansion In the present study information was presented on the most recent expansion of sugarcane, soybeans and eucalyptus crops. This data will be consolidated herein by region and federation units, in order to permit an overall view of the effects of these expansions on Brazil’s territory. Further information on other important crops in Brazil will be given below, to evaluate the effect expansion of agrifuels has on Brazilian agriculture and cattle raising. 90 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS Sugarcane According to Conab, in 2007/2008, the area covered with sugarcane plantations in Brazil already totaled 7 million hectares, an expansion of 23%. In terms of territory, as mentioned, the Southeastern region has, by far, the largest area occupied by these plantations. The States with the largest acreage of sugarcane plantations are: Bahia, Ceará, Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná and Minas Gerais. The South is the region where a greater increase in production should be seen, with 34%, followed by the Midwest with 22.1%. Soybeans The official estimates on the soybean harvest for 2007/2008 were published by Conab in October 2007. These forecast an increase in the area planted of between 2.4 and 5.7%, or 500,000 to 1.2 million hectares. The States that will have greatest increases will be, in this order: Mato Grosso, Bahia, Goiás and Mato Grosso do Sul. Specialized consulting firms point out that new areas for this expansion are to be found in the States of Maranhão, Piauí and Tocantins. New areas in the States of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Bahia will also be planted. The estimates also show that acreage in the State of Paraná will be responsible for a great part of the expansion, adding an extra 1.5 million hectares relatively to the previous harvest year, while Conab estimates an expansion of little more than 100,000 hectares in the State. The increased acreage planted with soybeans in Brazil is mainly due to the fact that, for the first time in ten years, the U.S. plantation areas declined from 30.6 to 25.9 million hectares, in 2007/08, because of the expansion of corn plantations. With this, it is expected that the international price for soy will increase in 2008 as well. Monoculture tree plantations For obvious reasons, the plantations of trees do not have the same geographic mobility over a short period of time, as the other crops analyzed. Besides which, the location of these plantations is associated mainly with paper and pulp, steel and pig iron industries. Thus it is expected that, in the medium term, the principal areas of expansion will continue to be those where tree growth has been good in recent years. The plantations are located in the States of (by order of importance): Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia and Mato Grosso do Sul. The States of São Paulo, Paraná, Espírito Santo and Amapá, should also be mentioned. Rio Grande do Sul is to be the center of the newest pulp processing industry in Brazil. New industries are being implanted also in Mato Grosso do Sul, Piauí and 91 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS Rio de Janeiro. In addition, the pressures brought to bear on the Steel Complex of Carajás opposing its destruction of native forests for charcoal production, will probably lead to an expansion of eucalyptus plantations in the State of Pará also. Agrifuels and other cattle raising activities In direct and indirect ways, the increased use of agrifuels is stimulating the growth of the three crops analyzed in this study. In the case of sugarcane, the relation is direct, i.e., the greater part of the additional plantations goes to producing ethanol. In the case of planted forests, the production of charcoal is only one additional component of the continuous increase, in global terms, of the consumption of other byproducts such as paper, pulp and timber. Concerning soy, the use of soy oil as a fuel does not, at present, require increased cultivation. But other factors resulting from the growing use of agrifuels in the world, contribute towards the present rapid expansion of soybean plantations in Brazil. The decline in plantation acreage in the U.S., the largest world producer, is a direct result of its substitution by more corn plantations for the production of ethanol. For these same reasons, the production of corn in Brazil has been increasing rapidly and competing with other crops. The use by many countries of vegetable oils in general, as fuel, also stimulates demand for soy oil over other types. All these factors have led to increased soy oil prices, stimulating increased production of the bean in Brazil. Substitution of Crops The question is, are agrifuels in fact substituting food crops, or not? This study has attempted to answer this question through an analysis of the data on crops in some States where their production is significant. It is possible to reach some conclusions, in spite of insufficient data, especially with regard to Brazilian cattle raising activities. The most recent official data from the IBGE dates from 2005. In April of 2008, Conab, published, in the Perfi-l do Setor do Açúcar e do Álcool no Brasil, data regarding a pioneer survey on areas where crops had been eradicated following the expansion of sugarcane plantations. The article reveals that in 2007/08, in the Center-Southern region where the expansion of sugarcane is progressing rapidly, new plantations occupied crop areas previously planted with other crops, though most sugarcane plantations (64.7%) occupied land previously used for cattle pasture. 92 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS TABLE 1 Share of crops in total expansion of sugarcane (%) State/ Region São Paulo Corn 4,9 Soy- Coffee Orange Pasture bean 12,0 0,6 8,6 68,8 New Others Total areas 2,3 2,8 100,0 Paraná 6,3 32,7 - - 55,4 - 5,6 100,0 Minas Gerais 7,1 20,9 0,4 0,4 64,0 0,3 6,9 100.0 Mato Grosso do Sul 1,6 7,8 - - 90,6 - - 100,0 Goiás 7,1 32,1 - - 54,7 1,0 5,1 100,0 Mato Grosso - 68,1 - - 30,6 1,3 - 100.0 Rio de Janeiro - - - - - - 100,0 100,0 Espírito Santo - - 1,7 1,6 93,2 - 3,4 100,0 5,2 17,9 0,4 5,0 66,4 1,4 3,7 100,0 Alagoas - - - - 46,6 - 53,4 100,0 Pernambuco - - - - 32,0 - 68,0 100,0 Paraíba - - - - 45,6 - 54,4 100,0 Rio Grande do Norte - - - - 33,5 46.3 20,2 100,0 Bahia - - - - 78,8 - 21,2 100,0 Maranhão - - - - 10,5 34.8 54,7 100,0 Piauí - - - - - 100,0 - 100,0 CENTER-SOUTH Sergipe - - - - 100,0 - - 100.0 Ceará - - - - - - - 0,0 Amazonas - - - - - - - 0,0 Tocantins - - - - - - 100,0 100,0 NORTH-NORTHEAST 0,0 0,0 0,0 0,0 37,3 18,4 44,3 100,0 BRAZIL 4,9 16,9 0,4 4,7 64,7 2,4 6,0 100,0 Source: Conab (2008). Sugarcane in São Paulo It was seen that in 2006/07, in the State of São Paulo, the area occupied by sugarcane plantations increased by 362,000 hectares, while planted forest areas increased by 17,000 hectares. Soybean plantations, however, declined by 118,000 hectares. For 2008, Conab estimated a small variation for soybeans in the State – it could go either way, positive or negative. In any case, the State’s soy production no longer has the same importance in the total Brazilian production. 93 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS The Agricultural Economy Institute (IEA) and the Integral Technical Assistance Coordination (Cati), the São Paulo State Secretariat for Agriculture and Development, published the numbers for 2006/07, in September of 2007. The following crops were analyzed: cotton, peanuts (both “da seca” or planted in dry weather, e.g. winter; and “das águas” or that planted at the beginning of the rainy season), rice, sugarcane, “winter” black beans, “rainy season” black beans, oranges, summer corn, interim-harvest (safrinha) of corn and soybeans.3 The survey shows that, apart from sugarcane, only orange plantations, among those analyzed, showed an increase in acreage planted (of only +2%, or approximately 12,000 hectares). The scenario is the following, regarding other crops: • Corn plantation areas declined by 11.3% (-86,000 hectares), to 678,000 hectares, corresponding to a 10% reduction in production or 3.4 million tons, over the previous year. • Soybean plantations declined 28%, from 666,000 hectares, in 2005/06, to 478,000 in 2006/07 (Conab estimates show 538,000 hectares). Production fell 17%, reaching 1.2 million tons (1.4 million according to Conab). • Black bean crops planted in the winter (das secas) and in the rainy season (das águas) also declined. The former showed a decrease of 13%, with 45,000 hectares and a production of 65,000 tons; and total area of rainy season crops was 70,000 hectares or 4% less, with production remaining stable at 124,000 tons. • Both winter and early rainy season peanut crop areas and production, declined. The area occupied by the winter peanut crop was 11,000 hectares or 22% less than formerly, with a production of 20,000 tons (25% reduction). Early rainy season peanut plantations covered 60,000 hectares (a reduction of 8.5% in comparison with the previous year), with a production of 148,000 tons or a decrease of 18%. • Cotton plantation areas declined by 41%, occupying 32,000 hectares and produced 67,000 tons of seed. • Coffee decreased by 2% relatively to the previous year, with 229.7 thousand hectares. Since this is a twice yearly harvest crop, the total decline was 29%, with 201,000 tons. • Rice, according to Conab harvest surveys suffered a reduction of 15% in crop area in São Paulo or approximately 5,300 hectares. For sorghum, the reduction 3 94 Agricultura paulista diminui a área plantada mas aumenta produtividade. Agência Imprensa Oficial do Estado de São Paulo, 13/09/07. SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS was 30%, equivalent to 31,400 hectares. Wheat showed a decrease of 13%, or 9,300 hectares. (Conab, 2007) Calculating the positive variations, almost all due to sugarcane, the crop area in São Paulo increased by 391,000 hectares. This expansion resulted from the inclusion of the above mentioned crop reductions of about 280,000 hectares. The recent Conab survey (2008) on the sugarcane and ethanol sector profile shows a reduction of 242,000 hectares of pastureland. It is therefore supposed that the difference of 131,000 hectares was being prepared for production in that period. According to Paulo Cavasin, an agronomist from the Araraquara Regional Agricultural Development Office, “Where cows used to graze there is today a sea of sugarcane and this also is the case with other crops. The State lost large segments of dairy farming areas to sugarcane. The cattle farmers migrated from São Paulo to other States, such as Goiás and Paraná. The consumers were the ones who lost out. In São Carlos there were large producers, and today few are left. In [the region of] Dourado, during the 1960´s, over 60,000 liters per day of milk were produced. With the introduction of sugarcane, this volume declined and today, a one thousand liter per day production is a lot. All the large dairy farms, without exception, with approximately 10,000 liters per day, are now occupied with sugarcane plantations. The substitution greatly profited the sugar and ethanol production because the plantations occupied large, flat pasture lands, logistically well located. Ten thousand liters of milk cannot be produced in hollows. The pastures were the best land areas of the ranch.”4 The last Survey on the Municipal Cattle Production published by the IBGE in December of 2006, referred to 2005. The numbers show that, while, overall, Brazilian cattle herds increased 1.3% relatively to 2004, those in many Southeastern States decreased: São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul. This information is also confirmed by the data on exports of beef from São Paulo State. Up to 2005, São Paulo was responsible for 61% of beef exports. According to Carlos Cogo Consultoria Agroeconômica, this participation was reduced to 49.9%, between January and August 2007. Other States In States where there has been an increase in sugarcane production and planted forest areas, there was a corresponding reduction of various other crop areas between 2005/06 and 2006/07 harvest periods. Even considering the fact that in some cases, such as soybeans, this reduction was due to lower prices in the previous year, the 4 Fernanda Manécolo. Área de plantação de cana duplicou nos últimos sete anos. Tribuna Impressa de Araraquara, 16/07/07. 95 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS information on various other products indicates that other food crops are, in fact, being substituted, especially by sugarcane. This decline in food products resulted in drastically increased prices, especially in the first semester of 2008. It should also be mentioned that this substitution is taking place mainly in the South, and Southeast regions, as was shown for São Paulo. In the State of Paraná, where there was a large increase in sugarcane plantations, and where most of the Brazilian wheat is produced, the acreage of wheat plantations was reduced by almost one third (-31%). In the State of Rio Grande do Sul, this reduction was 18%; in Minas Gerais and Espirito Santo, the areas of black bean plantations were reduced by 14.4% and 11.5%, respectively, in 2007. In the Midwest, North and Northeast, there is less evidence than in the above mentioned regions. This is explained by the greater availability of land, contrary to the situation in the South and Southeast States, such as Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. Here, the available land is more expensive, which makes other crop cultivations unprofitable. The Director of Conab´s Business Logistics and Management, Sílvio Porto, in the tenth grain and bean harvest survey of 2006/07, of July of 2007, admitted that the loss of corn and soybean plantation areas to sugarcane in the States of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo and Minas Gerais, is a matter of grave concern.5 The issue of cattle-raising According to the National Agriculture Confederation, Brazil’s herds were approximately 207 million heads of cattle in 2007. It was estimated that these herds occupied 220 million hectares, an area equivalent to four and a half times the total area with grain plantations in the country, in 2007 (47.87 million hectares). The government and the associations of rural producers constantly state that agriculture in general, and sugarcane in particular, will expand into pastures and degraded land areas. However, Brazilian cattle herds continue to increase, making Brazil, today, the largest beef exporter in the world. The shifting of beef producing centers for export, mentioned above, is only the reflection of another large migratory movement, which is the search by cattle raisers for productive areas that will not be occupied by grain or sugarcane plantations, as well associated with the spread of cold-storage plants. Cattle ranchers are moving to regions where land is cheaper and sugarcane and grain are not yet cultivated, since these are more profitable than cattle raising.6 5 Daniel Lima. Avanço do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar preocupa, admite diretor da Conab. Agência Brasil, 03/07/07. 6 SP perde participação na exportação para regiões CO e NO. www.carloscogo.br. Accessed on 25/11/07. 96 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS TABLE 2 Brazil: cattle herds by region – 1995 and 2005 heads 1995 2005 % Variation Brazil 161,227,938 207,156,696 28.5 North 19.183,092 41,489,002 116.3 Midwest 55,061,299 71,984,504 30.7 Southeast 37,168,199 38,943,898 4.8 South 26,641,412 27,770,006 4.2 Northeast 23,173,936 26,969,286 3.4 Source: IBGE Environmental impacts The expansion of monoculture plantations associated with agrifuels, as well as that of cattle raising activities is causing the destruction of ecological biodiversity in many regions, especially the Amazon Forest, Pantanal and the Cerrado. The degradation of present agricultural and animal raising also causes concern, considering that the expansion of these activities as a whole, instigates occupation of additional areas. In the chapter dedicated to sugarcane, we mentioned the federal government’s initiative to draw up a study for promoting an ecological and economic zoning map that will define areas where sugarcane expansion will be restricted. However, there is no information on this in the case of soybeans and artificially planted forests. Official declarations do not make it clear if the planned zoning will include all agricultural and animal raising activities or only sugarcane, which is at present, the center of attention. In July of 2007, the project for the “Evaluation of environmental, economic and social impacts of beef cattle activities in the Cerrado, Amazon and Pantanal” was started, coordinated by Embrapa Cerrados. This Project was launched mainly as a result of increasing environmental control demands on the part of beef importers due to the problems caused by cattle raising activities in Brazil that may bring problems for exports of this product. The expansion of crops for fuel production – even into areas presently occupied by pasture or which are degraded – cannot be considered a neutral issue. Water and soil contamination, for example, are some of the harmful additional effects which must be considered. For sugarcane, for example, the issue is more serious than for other crops: though this crop occupies approximately ten percent of the total cultivated land in Brazil, according to the National Union of the Pesticide Industry 97 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS (Sindag), it was responsible, in 2006, for 12.6% of the industry’s total invoicing.7 According to José Roberto da Ros, Sindag Vice President, the consumption of pesticides by sugarcane was US$ 351 million, in 2006, compared with US$ 731.4 million for soybeans. At this time, sugarcane plantations occupied 6 million hectares and soya, 20 million.8 Regarding Amazonia, it is possible that increased international prices may result in a more rapid expansion of soy and cattle raising activities over the next few years, reversing the falling rate of deforestation of previous years. Between August 2007 and April 2008, DETER, a federal government agency, detected 5,850 km 2 of deforested areas. Between August 2006 and July 2007, the same system showed 4,974 km 2. 9 Impacts on jobs and small farms The three energy crops analyzed herein are already impacting on small farmers, rural worker salaries and jobs. These facts are not characteristically exclusive to energy crop plantations, but the reasons for these impacts are inseparable from monoculture and integrated production systems on which they are based. In São Paulo, where sugarcane expansion was greatest in the last few years, and agriculture and cattle raising already occupy almost all the available land, rural jobs are continually declining. In a recent study, José Marangoni Camargo, of the Unicamp Economics Institute, showed that 700,000 work positions were eliminated in agriculture between 1970 and 2000 – equivalent to 40% existing jobs –, and this process is still happening. According to the author, the greatest effects have occurred after 1990. According to the study, the main changes took place in the sugar and ethanol sector. Over the last 15 years, mechanization, especially of harvesting activities, increased. A harvester does the job of 100 workers. “It should be mentioned that, today, sugarcane plantations occupy half the arable land in the State. In other words, any change in the production process of this segment, will lead to important impacts in overall agriculture indicators, says the author.10 7 According to Sindag, soybean palntations are the principal pesticide consumer in Brazil, responsible for 38.5% of total Sales, in 2006. Second in importance is sugarcane with 12.6%, followed by cotton (10.3%), corn (7.5%), coffee (4.9%) and citrus (4.2%); these six crops only, being responsible for 78.0% of sales in that year. If sales for the treatment of soy, cotton and corn seeds is considered, these crops are responsible for 81.7% of total sales. 8 Indústria de defensivos aposta na cana. Valor Econômico, 19/09/2007. 9 Afra Bazalina e Fábio Amato. Desmatamento aumenta e já supera o registrado em 2007. Folha de São Paulo, 03/06/08. 10 Manuel Alves Filho. Mecanização ceifa 700 mil empregos na agricultura nos últimos trinta anos em SP. Jornal da Unicamp, 10 a 16/09/08. 98 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS The study also points to a decline in resident manpower on the properties. Today, approximately 60% of the labor force working in São Paulo agriculture do not live at their job sites. And, though all regions in the State showed a reduction in rural jobs, some were more affected than others. “In predominantly monoculture or cattle raising areas, unemployment was greater than in regions with diversified crops”, states the author. This study also shows that land prices, especially in regions of sugarcane expansion, has been continually rising. These new price levels have forced small farmers to either sell out or lease their land, and try to find new jobs in the country or in towns. The lack of jobs, in proportion to the number of displaced workers, contributes to increased unemployment in the region. Higher prices also make it difficult for the Federal Government to purchase land reserved for agrarian reform. As for the National Program for Production and Use of Biodiesel, its potential for generating rural jobs and income will only be feasible should the plans of the Ministry for Agrarian Development, for the production of diversified vegetable sources by small farm owners, prevail. The results of the analysis made by this Ministry, show that a 6% participation of family farmers in the production of biodiesel, would generate 269,691 rural jobs at an average (family) cost per job of R$ 4,906.00, and income from this activity would double. In the case of the impacts on jobs resulting from a total appropriation of the biodiesel market by soy agribusinesses, the study concludes that only 46,375 jobs would be generated, at an average cost almost 16 times greater: R$ 80,000.00 per job. Some conclusions In September of 2007, in the opening session of the U.N. General Assembly, in New York, President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva declared that “the Brazilian experience over thirty years shows that the production of biofuels does not affect food production. The problem of hunger in the world is not due to lack of food, but a lack of income which afflicts almost one billion men, women and children. It is very possible to integrate biofuels, environmental preservation and food production.”11 The available global food resources will certainly be sufficient to feed everybody in the world. However, an analysis of recent facts related to the increase of cultivation of agrifuel sources shows that these, together with other factors (high petroleum prices, climate changes, increased consumption of meat, speculation), contribute to compromising food security of various population segments. We live a new paradigm, where agriculture is no longer entirely dedicated to food production. The following negative impacts may be foreseen at this time: 11 Marília Martins. Lula anuncia plano ambiental. O Globo, 26/09/07. 99 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS • The generalized global food price increases are mainly due to the use of corn, wheat, vegetable oils and other agricultural crops, for the production of fuels. If it is true, as President Lula declares, that hunger is related to income, the increase in food prices is fatal to a great majority of humanity who live on less than US$ 2.00 per day and cannot wait for these prices to go back to their historic levels. • It is possible that, in the medium term, food prices will return to previous levels, because the historic tendency is for prices of primary foodstuffs to decline relatively to other prices within the economic structure. However, the growing use of agricultural products as fuels is a new fact. Add to this the impacts on agricultural production deriving from climate changes, and the result is uncertainty regarding food prices in the future. For the first time, there appears to be a direct correlation between petroleum and food prices. • The expansion of monocultures for the production of agrifuels also reduces the food security for family farmers due to land valorization. With this, the farmer finds it increasingly difficult to grow his own food crops. Food security is also adversely affected in regions that are isolated or far from the large food production centers, which makes the products more expensive due to transportation costs, deterioration resulting from distances travelled and precariousness. • Monoculture, as a general rule, reduces the volume of available water, causing springs to dry up, and contaminating the remaining water with pesticides. The impacts on traditional food sources are not, therefore, limited to the new monoculture areas, but also affect neighboring land. • Apart from unemployment, these crops change the pattern of local income turnover, because they use supplies, raw materials and equipment produced in distant centers. The local and regional economies are, thus, doubly impoverished. For this reason, some States and municipalities are beginning to implement measures to restrict the expansion of sugarcane plantations in order to avoid unemployment and high food prices. • The expansion of monoculture for production of agrifuels is also causing the indirect destruction of Brazil’s biodiversity. Specifically, the displacement of cattle raising activities to new agricultural and animal husbandry frontier areas is the main cause for the destruction of the biodiversity in the Amazon, the Cerrado and Pantanal regions. 100 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS Agrifuels, global warming, pastures and degraded areas It is, without a doubt, necessary to find new sources of energy to substitute petroleum based fuels. But the prevailing form of substitution of gasoline by ethanol and diesel oil by biodiesel may cause more economic, social and environmental problems than benefits. Even in the case of global warming, the most recent studies show that monoculture based agrifuels may, in fact, aggravate the problem even if not at the expense of deforestation. According to research carried out by Paul J. Crutzen, Nobel Prize of Chemistry, the canola oil produced in Europe would be responsible for 70% more greenhouse effect gas emissions than diesel oil. Ethanol from sugarcane produces “only” between 50 and 90% of the gas emissions responsible for the greenhouse effect, than gasoline.12 The majority of these gas emissions results precisely from the fact that the agrifuel is produced from monoculture activities, which require massive use of chemical fertilizers, pesticides and other toxic chemical products. This gives rise to the release of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), which is 300 times more damaging than CO2, to global warming. For these reasons, the study points out that the production of these new fuels now prevailing has a highly negative result. It suggests the search for plants that do not require such intense use of pesticides, as well as changes to the present cultivation methods. Thus, the expansion of monoculture agrifuel plantations into degraded areas or existing pastureland also does not appear to be a harmless or appropriate solution to combat global warming. Besides contaminating, this system contributes to worsen social problems, as described in above. Who wins? The productive models based on monoculture and integrated production benefit only a few large landowners sustained by a concentration of land and official financing, large national and transnational food and energy companies, as well as foreign production and speculative capital that is starting to invest in agrifuels. In this model, such as the production and distribution of petroleum, income is mostly concentrated in the hands of a few beneficiaries. In the short term, the governmental balance of payments may show positive results, such as those accruing from increased fuel exports. In the longer term, however, everything seems to indicate that Brazil will be unable to continue to pay 12 Emma Graham-Harrison. Muitos biocombustíveis seriam mais nocivos que petróleo. Reuters/Brasil Online, 27/09/07. 101 NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS for ever more sophisticated goods which today figure heavily on the list of its imports, with revenues from primary products: analyses of Brazilian exports show that these products have an increasingly important participation. According to Edgard Pereira, chief economist of Iedi (Industrial Enterprise Development Institute), half of the aggregate value (income generated) by industry today depends on sectors based on natural resources.13 This means that even maintaining payments of Brazilian exports will become difficult. What should be done? The production of agrifuels by family farmers, through a system whereby farmers may go beyond mere planting, participating in the production process, seems to be the best alternative for vegetable oil production, both for social and environmental reasons. It must be considered, however, that the volume of fuels necessary to substitute all petroleum derivatives presently consumed would still have strong impacts on national resources, such as water and soil. It is to be hoped that technology, through increased productivity and innovative procedures that include the use of new sources of energy, may find solutions to reduce the existing pressures on natural resources. On the other hand, while these solutions are still in the offing, it is necessary to introduce new patterns of consumption. This debate finds few adepts since it contradicts existing economic logic, which says that unlimited production and consumption growth is imperative, independent of the benefits or damages caused, or to the capacity of our Earth to endure such levels of consumption. 13 Fernando Canzian. Economistas alertam para desindustrialização. Folha de São Paulo, 19/09/07. 102 SYNTHESIS AND CONCLUSIONS Bibliography CONAB. Perfil do Setor do Açúcar e do Álcool no Brasil, Situação Observada em Novembro de 2007. Brasília. Conab, 2008. FOOD & WATER WATCH AND NETWORK FOR NEW ENERGY CHOICES. The rush to ethanol: not all biofuels are created equal. Analysis and Recommendations for U.S. Biofuels Policy. 2007. IEDI. Importações, câmbio e indústria: a marcha da desindustrialização no Brasil. Iedi, March 2007. MINISTÉRIO DO DESENVOLVIMENTO AGRÁRIO. Relatório final do grupo de trabalho interministerial encarregado de apresentar estudos sobre a viabilidade de utilização de óleo vegetal – biodiesel como fonte alternativa de energia, anexo III. Brasília, December 2003. OECD-FAO. Agricultural Outlook 2007-2016. OECD-FAO, 2007. 2008-2017. OECD-FAO, 2008. 103 ACRONYMS AIA – Environmental Impact Evaluation ANP – National Petroleum Agency BEN – National Energy Balance BNDES – National Bank for Economic and Social Development CBI – Caribbean Basin Initiative CNA – Brazilian Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock CNAA – National Company of Sugar and Alcohol CONAB – National Supply Company CONTAG – National Confederation of Agricultural Workers DIEESE – Inter Trade Union Department of Statistics and Socio-Economic Studies EDR – Regional Development Office EPE – Energetic Research Company EU – European Union FAO – Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations IBGE – Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics IEA – Institute of Agricultural Economics IPEA – Institute of Research in Applied Economics LDC – Louis Dreyfus Commodities Bioenergy MDIC – Ministry of Development, Industry and Trade NIPE – Interdisciplinary Nucleus of Strategic Planning ORPLANA – Organization of Cane Producers in the Center-South Region of Brazil PNAD – National Research by Homestead Sampling RFA – Renewable Fuels Association SECEX – Foreign Trade Secretariat UNESP – São Paulo State University UNICAMP – State University of Campinas WTO – World Trade Organization ZEE – Ecological and Economic Zoning Map 104 SERGIO SCHLESINGER SUPPORT Rua Morais e Vale, 111 5º andar – Centro 20021-260 Rio de Janeiro – RJ Brazil Phone: +55 21 2189 4600 Fax: +55 21 2189 4612 www.actionaid.org.br COVER PHOTO: CESAR GUILLOTEL / CG TEXTURES ActionAid Brasil NEW WOOD FOR OLD FIRES – THE FEVER FOR AGRIFUELS PUBLISHED BY SERGIO SCHLESINGER