Mathematics and Astronomy: some ideas and examples
Transcrição
Mathematics and Astronomy: some ideas and examples
Planetary dynamics and solar activity : truth and / or consequences ? João Fernandes Centro de Geofísica da U. Coimbra Observatório Geofísico e Astronómico da U. Coimbra Departamento de Matemática da U. Coimbra Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Talk plan Solar cycle(s) The correlations. Yes ! So what ? Physical models: Torque Tidal forces An extra “idea” Future implications: Sun, planets and … exoplanets Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) O modelo físico (Abreu et al. 2012) R ~700 000 km Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Well studied subject (~ 3000 journals, since 1900) Heinrich Schwabe “Solar Observations During 1843” (Astronomische Nachrichten, vol. 20., no. 495, 1843) “From my earlier observations, which I have reported every year in this journal, it appears that there is a certain periodicity in the appearance of sunspots and this theory seems more and more probable from the results of this year.” Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Well studied subjcet (~ 2800 journals, since 1900) Heinrich Schwabe “Solar Observations During 1843” (Astronomische Nachrichten, vol. 20., no. 495, 1843) “From my earlier observations, which I have reported every year in this journal, it appears that there is a certain periodicity in the appearance of sunspots and this theory seems more and more probable from the results of this year.” Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Well studied subjcet (~ 2800 journals, since 1900) Heinrich Schwabe “Solar Observations During 1843” (Astronomische Nachrichten, vol. 20., no. 495, 1843) “From my earlier observations, which I have reported every year in this journal, it appears that there is a certain periodicity in the appearance of sunspots and this theory seems more and more probable from the results of this year.” Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years Solar cycle: Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years sun cycle: Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years Solar cycle: the butterfly diagram Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years Solar cycle: 22 years in fact Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years Solar cycle: other evidences Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years sun cycle: other evidences Nota: Gonçalves, Lopes, Dorotovic, Fernandes e Garcia (2013) 9.0 < 10.6 <13.7 Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years sun cycle: other evidences 9.0 years < 10.6 years <13.7 yeras Gonçalves, Lopes, Dorotovic, Fernandes e Garcia (2013) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years Solar cycle: reasons … Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years Solar cycle: reasons … Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years Solar cycle: reasons … Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years sun cycle: reasons … TACHOCLINE (with a thickness of 0.04 times the solar radius) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Eleven years sun cycle: reasons … Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Other cycles Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Other cycles Charbonneau (2013) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Other cycles Production of radio-carbono 14C increase during the minima (1n + 14N → 14C + 1p). See also10Be Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Other cycles Dean (2000) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Solar cycle(s) Other cycles: Dean (2000) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) The correlations. Yes ! So what ? Planets/Solar activity connection idea: R. Carrington (1863) Charbonneau (2002) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) The correlations. Yes ! So what ? Planets/Solar activity connection idea: Sideral period of Jupiter ~ 11.86 years Charbonneau (2002) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) The correlations. Yes ! So what ? Planets/Solar activity connection idea: Schwentek e Elling (1984): coincidence between solar cycle solar and the product of the periods of the Jupiter-Saturn aligment (19.9 anos) by the ratiof their distances to the Sun (0.55) Grandpierre (1996): coincidence between planetary alignments Earth, Venus and Jupiter period (11,395 years) and the solar cycle Charvatova (2000): coincidence between the 2400 years solar cycle and the Sun's motion around the center of mass of the Solar System Bumba (private com.): coincidence between the angle of the directions Jupiter and Venus-Earth pair with the maximum and minimum of the solar cycle. Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) The correlations. Yes ! So what ? A hipótese planetária: Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) http://animalspiritspage.blogspot.pt/2010/12/sunspots-and-stock-market-returns.html The correlations. Yes ! So what ? Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) The correlations. Yes ! So what ? Planets/Solar activity connection idea: Charbonneau (2002) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) The correlations. Yes ! So what ? Astronomy and Astrophysics: No evidence for planetary influence on solar activity, Cameron and Schussler (2013) Journal of Atmospehric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics: Is there a planetary influence on solar activity ?, Abreu et al. (2012) The influence of planetary attractions on the solar tachocline, Callebaut et al (2012) Comment on “The influence of planetary attractions on the solar tachocline”, Scafetta et al. (2013) Reply to “Comment on “The influence of planetary attractions on the solar tachocline””, Callebaut et al (2013) Nature: Solar physics: The planetary hypothesis revived, Charbonneau (2013) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) The correlations. Yes ! So what ? Solar physics: The planetary hypothesis revived, Charbonneau (2013) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Physical models: torque Abreu et al. (2012) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Physical models: torque Abreu et al. (2012) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Lovis et al. (2011) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Physical models: torque Hipothesis: a = b = c 1. e = f (Nx = 0) → YZ 2. f = d (Ny = 0) → XZ 3. d = e (Nz = 0) → XY Abreu et al. (2012) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Physical models: torque Abreu et al. (2012) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Physical models: torque Tacocline is oblated on the equator ! ! This is strongly attacked by Cameron & Schussler (2013) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Physical models: tidal forces In total < 8 ×10-10 m/s2 << 1.2 ×10-6 m/s2 Callebaut et al (2012) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Physical models: an extra “idea” Seixas, Salgueiro, Fernandes (work in progress) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Future implications: Sun, planets and … exoplanets Sun: indications about the tachocline geometry ? Planets : better celestial mechanics ? Exoplanets: host exoplanets activity ? Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Future implications: Sun, planets and … exoplanets Sol: indicações sobre a geometria da tacocline Planetas do SS: Exo-Sistemas Planetários: Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13) Future implications: Sun, planets and … exoplanets Up to seven planets orbiting HD 10180: a solar type star (similar age) Lovis et al. (2010) Dep. Física U. Aveiro (23/10/13)