Copper Products
Transcrição
Copper Products
Corporate Presentation 1 Disclaimer This presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements and information relating to Paranapanema S.A. (the “Company”) that reflect the current views and/or expectations of the Company and its management with respect to its performance, business and future events. Forward-looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain words and/or any other phrases of similar meaning. Such statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. We caution you that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in this presentation. In no event, neither the Company nor any of its subsidiaries, affiliates, directors, officers, agents or employees shall be liable before any third party (including investors) for any investment or business decision made or action taken in reliance on the information and statements contained in this presentation or for any consequential, special or similar damages. This presentation and all its contents are proprietary information and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without the prior written consent of the Company. The information contained in this presentation is subject to change from time to time without notice and the Company is under no obligation to keep you advised of such changes 2 Agenda 1 PMAM at a glance 4 2 Company Overview 5 6 3 Business Model Financials Copper Sector 3 Agenda 1 PMAM at a glance 4 2 Company Overview 5 6 3 Business Model Financials Copper Sector 4 PMAM at a glance Positioning overview Sole Brazilian smelter and refiner, with strong positioning in the value chain Copper flowchart PMAM’s Presence MINING DOWNSTREAM SMELTING & REFINING (Products) Gold Silver Copper Ore (1.0% copper) Copper Concentrate (~28% copper) Scrap Blister (~98% copper) Anode (~99.5% copper) Cathode (~99.9% copper) Byproducts (H2SO4, anodic slime and slag) Primary Copper ~280 kt Semi-Finished Market (rods, wires, tubes, bars, laminates, etc.) (finished products) Copper Products ~180 kt Cathodes Sales ~100 kt Sole Brazilian cathode producer PMAM is present Largest Brazilian supplier of copper rods and wires 3 processing plants for refined copper and scrap 5 PMAM at a glance Business segments and operations Diversification between products and markets protects margins Segments Breakdown (% of 2Q15 Revenues) Operations Primary Copper & Copper Products ~2,000 employees By-products (B2B products) BRAZIL PERU Copper Products Copper Concentrate Primary Copper 13% Very low associated cost (refining - cathodes) 63% 12% 30% 37% 88% Copper Products CHILE 32% 2Q15 100% of refined copper in Brazil Products and Brazilian Market Share (2014)* Copper Products B2B and B2C (semi-finished and finished products) Bars 15% Share 68% 57% Domestic Market Cathode 53% Share Export Market Different types of sectors and clients Rolled 30% Share *Source: Company, Sindicel and CRU Rods and Wires 42% Share Tubes 46% Share 6 PMAM at a glance Recent organizational emphasizes corporate governance New management has shifted focus to increase ROIC Timeline 1961 Paranapanema was established Shareholding Structure Focused on Non-ferrous metals Became largest Brazilian Copper producer Capacity Expansion and Technology upgrade by 2012 Listed on BM&FBovespa’s Novo Mercado Individuals Paranapanema 2018 Project (PMA-2018) Recovery begins in 2013 Re-defined business model: Returns on added capacity 24% 11% Locals 1971 IPO Key Operations Mining & Construction 12% Foreign 11% 17% 6% 7% 12% Change in management: Managing-by-the-penny Management alignment: Variable compensation Long-term gains and better processes legacy 7 PMAM at a glance PMA 2018: long term plan to sustain profitability and stabilize results ROIC-centered management reflected in share price Maximizing productivity on existing assets Meritocracy Increase ROIC metrics Cultural Reshape Process Growing above market average Adding selected new opportunities surrounding existing assets 8 PMAM at a glance PMA 2018 KPIs: a guidance to recovery Cathode Production (Kt) Working Capital (# days) 151 257 238 2013 2014 280 290 124 2016E 2018E 2013 Transformation Cost and SG&A (R$/t) 2014 140 2016E 120 2018E Capex (R$ Million) and as % of Depreciation 120% 114% 100% 615 2013 Note: E = expected 57% 2,072 2,047 1,840 124 1,748 144 120 69 554 2014 515 2016E 489 2018E 2013 2014 2016E 2018E 9 PMAM at a glance Enhancements achieved so far Priority OPERATING EXCELLENCE HUMAN CAPITAL OTHER Impact Results Cost control Transformation cost/t: Reduced by 5% (2014x2013) SG&A: Reduced by 17% (2014x2013) Cast & Roll ramp-up From 40% to 68% capacity utilization Capex Reduced by 65% (R$69MM – vs. ‘14 budget) Board of Directors Audit Council Committees 70% replaced, Independent Chairman 40% replaced Monthly operational cycle Headcount C level change -15% (2014 x 2013) 65% (1/3 downsized / 50% replaced) Long term planning 5 year business plan – PMA 2018 10 PMAM at a glance Financials Gross Profit and Gross Margin 8,5% 6,9% 9,4% Free Cash Flow 1 EBITDAa and EBITDAa Margin 10,3% 8,8% 9,1% 397 9,0% 6,7% 7,4% 168 152 84 5,2% 105 75 1Q14 123 125 109 80 0,4% 5 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 Gross Profit 1Q15 2Q15 4 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 Adjusted EBITDA 4Q14 Adjusted EBITDA Margin 80 74 -108 -6,6% -9,3% Net Profit 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Peers – EBITDA Margin (%)2 Locals exposed to Metallurgy 14.4 6,1% -72 3Q14 -450 14.0 -73 -97 2Q14 2Q15 Accumulated Profit/Losses -15 1Q14 1Q15 32 6,1% -1,3% -29 0,4% 10,6% 131 109 73 57 Gross Margin Net Profit and Net Margin 120 1Q15 Net Margin 9.6 Smelters -169 5.2 -234 2.0 0.5 -303 2Q15 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Jiangxi Aurubis PMA MagnesitaUsiminas Ferbasa 1 Free 2 (R$MMe%) Cash Flow: operating cash flow - capex Plain 2014 EBITDA Margin, Bloomberg data 11 PMAM at a glance Financials: strong balance sheet and efficient working capital usage Cash & Debt (R$ Million) Net Debt/LTM EBITDAa 1.048 988 1.079 1.127 2,5x 659 2,2x 1,6x 1,5x 1,5x 1.995 1.165 1.590 1.333 1.246 1,0x 0,8x 868 506 257 2Q14 3Q14 511 285 4Q14 Gross Debt 1Q15 Net Debt 2Q15 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 Working Capital (R$ Million) Cash = ~2 years of amortization 304 Cash 1Q14 Cash Maturity Schedule (R$ Million) 1,079 4Q13 70 42 1,590 783 665 174 999 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gross Debt 2Q14 381 348 326 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 12 PMAM at a glance Sector overview: copper market outlook Global copper imbalance to sustain high TC/RCs that together with efficient risk management should continue to benefit margins Global Copper Production and Primary Demand (Mt)1 TC/RCs (US$/t and R$/t) 2 – Quoted Benchmark 40 Possible Projects 35 US$/t Probable Projects 30 R$/t 1,824 Highly Probable Projects 25 Base Case Production Capability 20 Primary Demand 1,199 15 447 10 519 5 0 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 Smelters: Industry Bottleneck (Mt) 1 16 15 16 15 17 18 16 19 16 17 838 688 254 310 352 388 2010 2011 2012 2013 510 2014 610 2015 YTD Metal Premium (US$/t) – Cathode3 19 21 18 19 Exports Premium Domestic Premium 2010 2011 2012 2013 Concentrate Production 2014 2015E 2016E Smelter Production 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1 Source: Wood Mackenzie March 2015 = Treatment Charge/Refining Charge (discount miners give to smelters to transform concentrate in refined copper) 3 Bloomberg, Company data 2TC/RC 13 PMAM at a glance High substitution cost restraining increase in smelting capacity Smelting capacity demands large investments, not to mention working capital. Therefore, additional capacity is unlikely at current TC/RCs levels Comparable smelter valuations First Quantum Sentinel Smelter Jinchuan Copper (phase 1) Freeport / PT Aneka Tambang (estimate) Country Capacity (Kt) Costs (US$ M) Cost/t Zambia 300 690 2,300 China 400 2,000 5,000 Indonesia 300 2,200 7,333 1,630 4,878 Market Cap (US$ M)* 416 Cost/t 1,486 Average (in US$) Paranapanema Source: Macquarie Research *PMAM3 share price of R$3.94 and US$/R$ rate of 3.02 as of May 11, 2015 Country Brazil Capacity (Kt) 280 14 PMAM at a glance Comparable companies Smelters with similar operation to Paranapanema are the correct peers to be compared with EBITDA Margin (%) – Smelters/Refiners Net Margin (%) 5.2 2.6 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.5 Jiangxi Aurubis PMA EV/EBITDA 2015 Jiangxi Aurubis PMA P/E 2015 13.2 29.0 8.2 5.8 14.4 5.9 Jiangxi Aurubis Source: Bloomberg. 2014 figures and multiples updated as of May 11, 2015 PMA Jiangxi Aurubis PMA 15 PMAM at a glance YTD share price performance (+5%*) PMA Source: Bloomberg * Until August 3, 2015 Aurubis Vale Gerdau Usiminas Magnesita Fesa Ibov Copper jul-15 jun-15 mai-15 abr-15 mar-15 fev-15 jan-15 dez-14 nov-14 out-14 set-14 ago-14 jul-14 jun-14 mai-14 mai-14 abr-14 mar-14 jan-14 jan-14 (Base 100) CSN 16 PMAM at a glance Key investment highlights 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Establishing a culture of cost and asset efficiency ROIC driving decision-making process Strict capital usage policy Risk management minimizing results volatility Sustainable results maximizing shareholders’ returns 17 Agenda 1 PMAM at a glance 4 2 Company Overview 5 6 3 Business Model Financials Copper Sector 18 Company Overview History marked by several restructurings and poor risk management Current focus is to maximize capacity utilization, reduce costs and improve risk management seeking sustainable and improved results 1960 – 1999 Concentration in non-ferrous (largest copper producer in Brazil) Financial (2005), corporate and fiscal restructuring (2009) Private capital increase (2008) 2000 - 2010 2012 2013 2015 - 2018 Sale of non core assets Dias d’Ávila (BA) capacity expansion Entrance to Novo Mercado (BM&FBOVESPA) Launch of new tubes plant in Utinga Change of CEO (commodity sector professional) New risk management policy Processes reengineering 60% of the leadership is replaced PMA 2018 Project Operational Efficiency + Risk Management = Sustainable Results Stable results and growth 2014 Transition to copper refiner 2011 Investment plan for expansion and modernization – R$702 million Organizational restructuring Construction of tubes plant in Utinga (Santo André – SP) PMA contractor and miner Constitution in 1961 – heavy construction IPO in 1971 Pension funds take over the control (1996) 19 Company Overview Business segments and installed capacity Dias d’Ávila Dias d’Ávila Rods: 220 kt Wires: 80 kt Utinga and Serra Cathodes: 280 kt Tubes: 35 kt Laminates: 26 kt Dias d’Ávila Co-products (7%) Copper Products (59%) Primary Copper (34%) Business Segments* H2SO4 Bars: 12 kt Fittings: 4 kt Gold Silver Sulphuric Acid: 560 kt *Numbers refer to installed capacity and percentages refer to share of 2014 Net Revenues Anodic Slime: 540 t Slag: 396 kt 20 Company Overview Business segments and competition overview Copper Products Primary Copper (smelting and refining) Semi-Finished Copper Products Co-Products Finished Semi-Finished Finished Products Anodic Slime Cathodes Competitors Domestic: - Ibrame - Prysmian Sulphuric Acid Iron Silicate Domestic: - Galvani - Vale Foreign: Foreign: - Codelco (Chile) - Aurubis (Germany) - ILO (Peru) - Glencore (UK/Switzerland) - Aurubis (Germany) - Antofagasta (Chile) - Glencore (UK/Switzerland) Copper Rod Laminates Industrial Tubes Bars and Profiles Tubes Connections Wires Drawn Bare Wire Domestic: - Termomecânica - Cecil - Ibrame - Plasinco Domestic: - Termomecânica Foreign: - Nacobre and IUSA (Mexico) - Ceper and Indeco (Peru) - Nexans (Canada) - Aurubis (Germany) Foreign: - Aurubis (Germany) 21 Company Overview Revenue breakdown per segment Segment diversification and strong positioning reduces impacts from markets fluctuations 2014 Revenue Per Segment and Markets Revenue Per Sector By-products (B2B products) 8% Very low associated cost 35% 65% Primary Copper 44% 34% 22% Eletroelectronics Others Fertilizer 12% Cooling 2% 3% Mecanic and 5% Metallurgy Energy 6% (refining - cathodes) 32% 7% Re-sale 7% 27% Enamelled Civil Construction 56% Exports Per Region Copper Products B2B and B2C (semifinished and finished products) 78% 100% of refined copper in Brazil 58% Others UK USA Japan 10% 3% 4% International Trading Companies 9% 49% 27% Argentina Different types of sectors and clients Domestic Market Export Market 22 Company Overview Well located facilities: smart logistics and arbitrage between domestic and export sales Production Facilities and Raw Materials Supply Production Timing 1 month 10 Days Production plants (Third-party raw materials) Casting 10 Days Utinga – Santo André (SP) Production of copper and brass bars, wires, laminates, tubes and bronze Copper concentrate Refining 22 days Chile Main supplier of copper concentrate Serra – (ES) Production of copper and bronze fittings for civil construction Electrolysis 10 Days Peru Supplier of copper concentrate Estimated time between purchasing concentrate and delivering products Lamination 10 Days Dias D’Ávila – (BA) Smelting and refining of primary copper, cathodes, rods, drawn wire and byproducts Stretching Distribution center Copper Concentrate Origin Paranapanema has 3 processing plants and one distribution center Imported copper concentrate arrives at Aratú Port (Bahia), 24 km distant from the plant Estimated 62% market share in scrap origination all over Brazil Proximity between facilities and main customers (South and Southeast regions, country’s highest GDPs) is a strategic advantage Sulfuric acid sales (by-product) within a 50km radius Total cycle: 90 days 23 Agenda 1 PMAM at a glance 4 2 Company Overview 5 6 3 Business Model Financials Copper Sector 24 Business Model Premium management and cost control aligned with efficient risk management USD Metal Revenues Risk Management Mitigate FX and commodity volatility impact on results — Hedge of metal exposure — Strict dollar-denominated cash flow hedge Well structured governance, policies and controls *CT: transformation cost USD Risk Management EBT EBITDA Financial + D&A CT* + SG&A - R$ 5 bi - R$ 4 bi Metal Cost Total Revenues USD BRL TC/RC + Premiums + By-products USD Premium Management TC/RC Optimization of premium matrix Price premiums denominated in US dollars Premiums not linked to LME quotes Arbitrage between products to maximize premiums Costs Control Implementation of Zero Base Budgeting Leveraging on improved technologies Processes/plants consolidation Increasing operational leverage More efficient funding structure Transformation costs mostly in Reais (95%) 25 Business Model Market risks and hedge strategies highlights Market Risk Hedge Strategy Hedge efficiency = low volatility in margins 15,0% 10,0% 5,0% 0,0% -5,0% -10,0% -15,0% 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 Gross Margin 4Q13 1Q14 Avg. USD Change 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 2014 exposure in: USD Copper Zinc Lead Tin Gold Silver USD M impact in Gross Profit Robust market risk governance structure with risk policy defined by the Board of Directors and overseen by a Risk Committee on a weekly basis Risk strategy seeks to minimize or eliminate items with no control such as metal prices and FX rates, so management can focus on improving transformation and logistic costs, premiums, volume mix and SG&A expenses PMA’s market risk policy does not allow speculative positions, and established segregation of duties to ensure accuracy of metal and FX rate exposures 10% movement in asset value (USD M impact) 43 1 neutral neutral neutral neutral neutral 44 PMA hedges its exposures against movements of metal prices, foreign exchange, and interest rates Hedge instruments comprises derivatives (swaps and NDFs) and/or financial assets and liabilities (Debt, Payables, Receivables). PMA does not operate directly in any Mercantile Exchange and is not affected by daily margin calls Metal exposure daily VaR is USD 250,000 (copper price variation) and FX Net Exposure is covered between 70-100% for up to 12 months forward Differently from other soft commodity players, PMA keeps metal cost floating through swap transaction and fixes the cost when inventory is sold Avg. LME Change 2014 Net EBIT Sensitivity 26 Business Model – Copper Market Standards Metal hedging to neutralize metal prices volatility Copper market uses a Quotation Period (QP) of the LME as a price reference + Premium to define the settlement price of a transaction Purchase Flow (Cu Concentrate) Mine Negotiation Shipping date QP Settle date Financing Sales Flow (Primary and Copper Products) • PMA buys copper with TC/RC discount [TC/RC] over LME with M+3 QP • E.g.: M+3 LME – US$ 500/t TC/RC Sales Negotiation • Mine ships the Cu Concentrate with temporary LME – TC/RC with QP of M+3 • E.g.: US$ 6.000/t - US$ 500/t • Result = The price to be paid is the average LME of the 3rd month from shipping date less TC/RC. • E.g. US$ 6500/t – 500/t = US$ 6000/t • PMA finance the purchase of the copper (in USD) with fixed QP using Letter of Credit / Forfait. • Commercial team agrees pricing calculation with customer • E.g.: (LME QP + Premium)*USD rate + Interest (to cover payment terms) • QP in sales are usually past prices (E.g. S-1 or average LME of last week). • The USD portion of the price is converted into Invoicing date BRL upon invoicing using the agreed PTAX Receivables • Domestic sales are collected in BRL • Exports has M+1/+2 QPs and are collected in USD. Total Result: + ∆ Copper + TC/RC + Premium - ∆ Copper = + TC/RC + Premium 27 Business Model Metal hedge to neutralize metal prices volatility Results of copper metal hedging are reclassified from finance revenue/expenses to inventory, adjusting the historical metal cost to market value PMA hedges its volume exposure with SWAPs (NDFs), selling inventory with fixed QP in the nearby and buying copper in the future with open QP Metal fair value hedge accounting program allows inventory Mark-to-market (MtM), which monthly variations on LME should be offset by variations on the derivative side Within the month sales (and QP confirmation) the derivative volume is liquidated with the same sales volume Using QP derivatives, PMA brings sales QP to LME month average, whilst inventory and its monthly variation are also marked-tomarket using LME monthly average. In this way, both LMEs for sales and cost are under the same LME QP neutralizing its effect 28 Business Model Cash flow hedging and hedge accounting to avoid FX rates volatility USD Long USD Short 95% of PMA’s revenue are in USD 90% of PMA’s debt USD Net and suppliers are in PMA’s uses NDFs to (around USD 1.3 bi/year) USD hedge USD net exposure (around USD 0.9 Net Exposure: - PMA’s has a risk management team responsible for monitoring USD exposure. - Exposure is covered between 70-100% for up to 12 months forward bi/year) Accounting Hedge accounting: the result of USD hedging instruments is classified as Other Comprehensive Income under Shareholder’s Equity account. When the hedge is closed, the result is recognized in P&L. 29 Business Model Equity story: copper fixed income Operational efficiency and higher ROIC will position PMA as a dividend play Capacity utilization + costs reduction Relevant market share in a region with protected premiums Focus in operational and commercial efficiency Discipline in capital usage Reduce capital applied to business, especially inventories Risk management Increasing Margins and ROIC Metal and cash flow hedges strongly reducing volatility on results 30 Agenda 1 PMAM at a glance 4 2 Company Overview 5 6 3 Business Model Financials Copper Sector 31 Financials Production, Sales and Revenues Sustainable trend already clear, despite production and sales impacted by domestic environment and production stoppages Production Volume Sales Volume* Net Revenues (K t) (K t) (R$ M) 330 366 305 5,549 246 4,026 244 2012 2013 2014 Production stoppages during 1H14 (maintenance) 4,734 267 2012 2013 2014 Better commercial arbitrage opportunity between products and markets than in 2013 2012 2013 2014 Lower sales volume and LME quote in 2014 impacted Revenues 5% recovery in production volume during 2H14 * Sales volume net of intra-operating eliminations 32 Financials COGS and Gross Profit Efforts to reduce Transformation Cost resulted in Gross Margin gain, despite decrease in Net Revenues COGS Gross Profit and Gross Margin (R$ M) (R$ M) 5,154 584 8.1% -5% 3,842 7.1% 450,0 4,350 553 480 08% 400,0 07% 350,0 06% 300,0 05% 4.6% 250,0 4,570 04% 200,0 3,798 3,361 395 384 150,0 100,0 02% 01% 184 50,0 00% ,0 2012 2013 Metal Cost 2014 Transformation Cost Transformation cost down 5% even considering 2014 inflation 03% -01% 2012 2013 Gross Profit 2014 Gross Margin Margin gain: higher operating efficiency and Transformation Cost reduction 33 Financials Adjusted EBITDA and Net Profit Operating efficiency, costs reduction and hedge accounting are reflected in EBITDA and Net Profit Adjusted EBITDA Net Profit (R$ M) (R$ M) 124 7.6% 20x higher 6.0% 6 2012 3.1% 2013 2014 358 332 125 2012 2013 EBITDA Recurring EBITDA Margin gain 2014 (206) EBITDA Margin 20 times growth 2015: Accumulated Losses could be fully compensated 34 Financials Expenses and Financial Result Efforts in reducing expenses and risk management policy contributed to results recovery Recurring Expenses Financial Result (R$ M) (R$ M) -15% 168 22 143 138 2012 2013 2014 (71) (163) 2012 2013 2014 Efforts in expenses review resulted in 15% decrease in recurring expenses Hedge Accounting adoption already presented relevant effect in 2014 Zero Base Budgeting will allow further reductions 35 Financials Improving Balance Sheet and Free Cash Flow Cash & Debt (R$ M) 1.048 988 1.079 1.127 Free Cash Flow (R$ M) 604 659 1.995 1.333 1.246 1.165 1.590 2012 2013 2014 868 506 257 2Q14 3Q14 511 285 4Q14 Gross Debt 1Q15 Net Debt 2Q15 Cash -482 Debt Maturity Schedule (R$ M) Net Debt/LTM Adjusted EBITDA Cash = ~2 years of amortization 304 1,079 -261 70 42 1,590 2,5x 2,2x 1,6x 174 1,5x 999 1,5x 1,0x 0,8x Cash 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Gross Debt 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 36 Agenda 1 PMAM at a glance 4 2 Company Overview 5 6 3 Business Model Financials Copper Sector 37 Copper Sector Copper is the base of society’s infrastructure and is present everywhere Copper’s benefits extend beyond mechanical characteristics: Corrosion Resistant, Machinable & Formable Essential to the health of plants, animal and humans. Deficiencies, as well as excesses, can be detrimental to health - Antimicrobial Properties: copper and copper alloy products can be used to eliminate pathogens and reduce the spread of diseases - Excellent Conductor & Heat Transferer Malleable & Ductile - Copper Key Physical Properties Recycling: copper is one of the most recycled off all metals. Virtually all products made from copper can be recycled and recycled copper loses none of its chemical or physical properties Energy Efficiency: copper can improve the efficiency of energy production and distribution systems 38 Copper Sector Copper is widely used in all sectors Civil Construction Automotive Sector Naval Construction Electric vehicles, brake pads, radiators and heat diffusors Tubes and accessories, gas heating, bars, switch, sockets, electric energy wires and cables Industry Coppernickel alloys to prevent corrosion Eletroelectronics Water and gas tubes, electronic connectors, heat diffusors, electric engines and cables Dressing, Decoration and Specialties Copper alloys used in buttons, zipper, buckle, jewelry, surgical instruments and military applications Circuits, wires and connectors Telecommunications Energy Wires and connectors Wires and energy cables, solar panels, wind turbine and ethanol production 39 Copper Sector Global GDP drives copper demand Global economy with sustainable growth in coming years will support copper demand Global GDP Growth (%) 4.1 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.5 China GDP Growth (%) 4.0 4.0 3.7 7.7 7.7 7.4 7.1 Brazil GDP Growth (%) 2.9 6.8 6.6 6.4 2.7 2.5 6.3 3.1 2.2 1.4 1.0 0.3 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E Despite Chinese deceleration, growth rates are still very high, while Brazil presents a high potential growing market Source: IMF 40 Copper Sector Production , refining and consumption drive copper price Concentrate Production (Mt) 16.2 16.8 1.4 1.5 14.8 2011 15.2 2012 18.1 1.6 16.5 2013 RoW 18.7 19.5 1.7 1.7 17.0 2014 China 17.7 2015E Smelter Production (Mt) Refined Consumption (Mt) 20.5 1.8 15.4 15.6 16.3 17.5 18.3 22.6 23.3 20.6 21.8 9.9 10.7 9.2 10.3 8.2 19.3 19.6 19.6 7.8 4.3 4.7 5.3 6.0 7.1 7.7 11.1 10.9 11.0 11.4 11.2 11.6 11.8 11.4 11.4 11.9 12.3 12.6 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 18.7 2016E RoW China RoW China China is the most important player accounting for 44% of global consumption China also holds a disproportionate amount of global stocks Strong growth of copper mining supply in 2013/2014 puts award pressure leading to higher TC/RC (large discount to smelters) Expected growth in refined consumption will surpass growth in production, supporting higher premiums Refined copper prices to come under downward pressure over the next few years Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014 41 Copper Sector Recent drop in copper prices caused by macro scenario and oil prices Improving economic sentiment and declining LME stocks boost prices 7.500 LME US$/t 7.000 6.500 Sharp price fall leads to scrap vacuum 6.000 5.500 Generally positive macroindicators and falling stocks supports prices SRB buying Weak manufacturing data and credit issues in China Quingdao warehouse fraud uncovered Prices slides as global growth fears escalate as oil price tumbles Strong USD pressuring commodities 5.000 Source: WoodMackenzie, LME 42 Copper Sector Sustainable global copper consumption growth Refined Consumption by Region Total Consumption by Industry Sector 45 35 40 30 35 million tonnes million tones 25 20 15 10 30 25 20 15 10 5 5 0 0 2000 2005 2010 North America 2015E Europe 2020E China 2025E Other Asia 2030E 2035E Row 2000 2005 Construction By Market Sector By First Use 2010 2015E Electrical Network Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014 Transport 12% Industrial Machinery 11% Transport 2030E 2035E Consumer & general By Property Signal transfer 4% Construction 30% Aesthetics/ malleable 28% Billet 13% Wire rod 74% 2025E Industrial Machinery Cake/Slab 13% Consumer & general 28% 2020E Electrical Network 19% Electrical conductivity 59% Heat transfer 9% 43 Copper Sector China still is the main driver of global copper consumption Global (kt) 2020 - 2035 1.5% growth p.a. 35000 30000 20000 1990 - 1999 3% growth p.a. 1960 - 1969 4.7% growth p.a. 15000 Global refined copper demand still driven by China (44% of global demand in 2013 – expected 48% in 2020, a 7% CAGR) Main drivers: — Global GDP growth — Emerging markets growth — Infrastructure and consumer goods sectors — Use of new technologies 2010 - 2019 3% growth p.a. 1980 - 1989 1.8% growth p.a. 25000 10000 5000 2000 - 2009 1.5% growth p.a. 1970 - 1979 3.4% growth p.a. 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 China (kt) Brazil (kt) 2020 - 2035 2% growth p.a. 18000 2010 - 2019 5.7% growth p.a. 16000 1970 - 1979 8% growth p.a. 14000 6000 1980 - 1989 -3% contraction p.a. 600 500 400 1980 - 1989 5.9% growth p.a. 1960 - 1969 3.5% growth p.a. 1990 - 1999 9.2% growth p.a. 1960 - 1969 8.7% growth p.a. 300 200 4000 2000 0 1960 2010 - 2019 2.2% growth p.a. 700 10000 8000 2020 - 2035 2.4% growth p.a. 800 1990 - 1999 9.6% growth p.a. 12000 900 2000 - 2009 15% growth p.a. 1970 1980 Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 100 0 1960 1970 - 1979 13.1% growth p.a. 1970 1980 1990 2000 - 2009 -0.5% contraction p.a. 2000 2010 2020 2030 44 Copper Sector Refined copper imbalance continues to benefit smelters Consumption to outpace production in next years, supporting current premium levels Global Refined Production (Mt) 19.7 20.2 20.8 2011 2012 2013 Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014 22.1 2014 23.0 2015E Global Refined Consumption (Mt) 24.0 2016E 24.3 2017E 23.3 23.9 24.4 22.6 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 24.4 2018E 19.6 19.6 2011 2012 20.6 2013 21.8 2014 45 Copper Sector TC/RC and Premiums at historical highs support smelters growth perspectives High copper concentrate inventories led to TC/RC growth in recent years together with tightness in physical market contributing to higher premiums TC/RC (US$/t and R$/t)* US$/t Metal Premium (Cathode) R$/t 1,824 Exports Premium 1,199 838 688 447 519 254 310 352 388 2010 2011 2012 2013 510 2014 2015 YTD Treatment Charge & Refining Charge is a deduction from the payable copper Theoretically what it takes to convert a tone of concentrates into metal but is a market driven/negotiated commercial term Charged by a smelter to a mine Realized TC is negotiated annually each year Revenue for a smelter and cost to a mine *Considering 30% Cu concentrate Source: Company and Bloomberg Domestic Premium 610 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Metal Premium is charged by a metal producer to its customer Theoretically to cover the cost (transportation, warehousing, financing, alloying and marketing costs) of shipping metal to a customer but is a market driven/negotiated commercial term Premiums are set once a year Revenue for a refiner and cost to a consumer 46 Copper Sector Regional imbalance creates interesting export opportunities Cathode deficit in China and other regions create exports opportunities, also benefited by USD appreciation Global Cathode Demand per Region - Mt +0.6 0.7 -0.4 -0.6 2.3 3.6 Demand -0.4 0.7 Surplus Deficit 13.6 -2.9 +2.7 0.6 0.2 +1.1 0.1 +0.4 2014e demand: 21.8 million t 2014e output: 22.1 million t Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014 47 Copper Sector Brazilian copper industry follows the global path, despite consumption affected by economic slowdown Concentrate Production (Kt) 356 Smelter Production (Kt) 280 377 442 395 453 474 419 175 221 2012 452 212 269 2011 280 257 238 294 214 Refined Consumption (Kt) 2013 2014 2015E 2016E 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E Refined consumption still expected to increase despite economic slowdown Copper consumption growth in Brazil is supported by: 2016E 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015E 2016E — recovery in domestic industrial production (end of “Port War”) — growth in primary consumption and Real Estate sectors — investments in ground transportation, electricity and infrastructure Paranapanema is the only Brazilian smelter with 100% refined copper domestic production Source: WoodMackenzie, December 2014 48 Investor Relations IR Contacts: [email protected] +55 11 2199-7914/7945/7845 http://ri.paranapanema.com.br Access our website for more information and download the modeling guide 49
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