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Brazilian Economy and Society Frutuoso Santana Consulate General of Brazil in Chicago Trade and Investment Department Overview • Federal Republic • Multiparty democracy • Free-market economy • Signatory to most international agreements • Host of the Soccer World Cup in 2014, and of the Olympic Games in 2016 • Peaceful society Largest country in Latin America: 3,285,618.49 mi² Population Age distribution 189 million inhabitants Growth rate: 1.2% per year 92.4 mi males 97.5 mi females 48.7% 51.3% Urban population: 159.1 mi 83.7% 16.3% Rural population: 30.8 mi Source: IBGE Population • Roman Catholic (nominal): 73.6% • Protestant: 15.4% • Spiritualist: 1.3% • Other: 9.7% • 30 million people rose to the middle class in 5 years Population Gini Coefficient (1992-2008) 0,8 0,7 0,6 Indigenous 0,5 White 0,4 Asian Black 0,3 Mixed 0,2 0,1 0 1992 Source: CPS/FGV 1995 1997 1999 2004 2004 2006 2008 Economy GDP Composition by sector Agriculture 6% Industry 27% 6th labor force in the world: 103.6 million Unemployment rate: 6% Services 67% Labor force by occupation Agriculture 20% • GDP: $ 2 trillion • Trade balance: $20.3 billion • Consumption rate in 2010: 7.1% • Growth rate in 2010: 7% • Foreign reserves: $350 billion Services 66% Industry 14% Economy • Fiscal and Monetary Policies • Internationalization of Brazilian Companies • Commodities Exports Economy Fiscal and Monetary Policies Annual Rates of Inflation (%), 1990-1999 2739 2407 2104 991 415 67 1 Source: Conjuntura Econômica 2 3 4 5 6 11,1 7 7,91 8 11,32 3,89 9 10 Economy Fiscal and Monetary Policies Historical Record of Inflation Targets Year Resolution Date Target (%) Variation (p.p) Upper and lower limits (%) Actual Inflation (IPCA %) 1999 2000 2001 Resolution 2,615 06/30/1999 8 5 4 2 2 2 6-10 4-8 2-6 8.94 5.97 7.67 Resolution 2,744 Resolution 2,842 Resolution 2,972 06/28/2000 06/28/2001 06/27/2002 3.5 3.25 4 2 2 2.5 1.5-5.5 1.25-5.25 1.5-6.5 12.53 Resolution 2,972 Resolution 3,108 06/27/2002 06/25/2003 3.75 5.5 2.5 2.5 1.25-6.25 3-8 7.6 2005 2006 2007 2008 Resolution 3,108 Resolution 3,210 Resolution 3,291 Resolution 3,378 Resolution 3,463 Resolution 3,584 Resolution 3,748 Resolution 3,880 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 2.5 2 2 2 2009 2010 2011 2012 06/25/2003 06/30/2004 06/23/2005 06/29/2006 06/26/2007 07/01/2008 06/30/2009 06/22/2010 2-7 2.5-6.5 2.5-6.5 2.5-6.5 2.5-6.5 2.5-6.5 2.5-6.5 2.5-6.5 5.69 3.14 4.46 5.9 4.31 6.5 7.1 4.5 2002 2003 2004 Source: Central Bank of Brazil 2 2 2 2 9.3 Economy Internationalization of Brazilian Companies • Privatization reforms in the 1990s • Search for new markets • Technological exchange Economy Commodities Exports Global Market Share of Commodities 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Soy Poultry Soy Coffee Poultry Coffee Beef Beef Orange juice Orange juice Tobacco Tobacco The Business Climate Higher per capita income in a large consumer market Increased retail trade (Jun 2010/Jun 2011): • 16.3% - Furniture and household appliances • 2.7% - Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages and tobacco • 12.0% - Textiles, apparel and footwear • 34.3% - Office, computer and communication material and equipment • 12% - Pharmaceuticals, medical and orthopedic articles, toiletries and cosmetics • 3% - Other articles of personal and domestic use • 1.1% - Fuels and lubricants • 8.9% - Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles The Business Climate Mergers and Acquisitions Sectoral Distribution 400 Food, Beverage & Tobacco 155 Financial Institutions 135 IT 127 200 Telecom 111 150 Oil Industry 100 100 Metalurgy & Steel Chemical & Petrochemical 77 Insurance 62 Energy Companies 56 Transportation 33 350 300 250 50 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 Domestic 1998 1999 2000 Cross border 2001 Total 2002 2003 2004 70 The Business Climate Business Costs: Taxes (in R$ million) Specification IR IPI II IOF Cofins CSLL PIS/Pasep CPMF Cide Other 2007 (a) 160286 33853 12254 7834 102838 34485 26817 36483 7937 26134 2008 (b) 191755 39466 17235 20342 120800 43972 31598 1150 5985 32895 2009 ( c) 191598 30752 16092 19244 117887 44238 31755 286 4827 40940 Total 448921 505198 497619 Source: Ministry of Planning % change (b)/(a) ( c)/(b) 19.6 -0.1 16.6 -22.1 40.6 -6.6 159.7 -5.4 17.5 -2.4 27.5 0.6 17.8 0.5 -96.8 -75.1 -24.6 -19.3 25.9 -24.5 12.5 -1.5 The Business Climate Where the opportunities are Economic success has increased demand on infrastructure • Airports (World Cup and Olympic Games demand expansion) • Roads (Transport of crops to the coast) • Technology (Biotech, Software engineering, etc.) • Utilities (Wind farms in the Northeast) Brazilian Overview Technology Platforms Rail Grinding Services Ballast Services Ditching & Excavating Rail Handling Data Management & System Diagnostics Fleet Operations • 450 employees • Contracted services • Revenues: $180M • Serving major railroads and passenger rail markets across N.A. • Outstanding safety record OEM Operations • 105 employees • Revenues: $80M • Produce 14-18 machines/yr • 40+ machines in 30 countries • 70K sft of assembly, test & warehouse capacity • Outstanding safety record Serving Freight & Passenger Systems Worldwide Loram Value Proposition DESIGN BUILD OPERATE MAINTAIN $15.6 $4.5 $1.5 $5.2 $9.9 $12.5 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 $15.6 $4.5 $1.5 $5.2 $9.9 $12.5 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 History in Brazil • Growing business – 2002: 48-stone rail grinder to MRS – 2006: shoulder ballast cleaner to MRS – 2010: RailVacs and 24stone grinders to Vale Working in Brazil • Positives: – Substantial market – Financial strength – Great listeners / collaborators – Open to ideas / quick to put them into action – Way warmer than Minnesota in winter • Challenges – Vendor support base limitations – Customs hurdles – Visa hurdles $15.6 $4.5 $1.5 $5.2 $9.9 $12.5 $1.0 $1.0 $1.0 Thanks for your attention For more information, visit us at: www.loram.com Projects for High-speed Trains in Brazil BRAZILIAN HIGH SPEED LINE (RIO DE JANEIRO–SÃO PAULO – CAMPINAS) Hélio Mauro França – Executive Superintendent - ANTT RIO – SÃO PAULO HIGH SPEED LINE - Background In recent decades, several studies were developed, sponsored or authorized by the Brazilian Government, with a view to implementing a new railroad between Rio and São Paulo, for passengers and freight. In 2007, the Government decided to review previous studies and contracted a consortium to prepare a feasibility study for a high speed railway line, with a maximum line speed of 350km/h, over 511 kilometres connecting the cities of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Campinas in Brazil. The Consortium prepared detailed studies: vDemand and Revenue Forecasts; vAlignment Studies; vFinance and Economics Appraisal and Concessioning; vRail Operations and Technology; vTAV Capital Cost. The most comprehensive study ever conducted. Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: South America, Brazil, and the states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: States of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo and the Area of Influence Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Direct Area of Influence for TAV Metropolitan Areas and Regions Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Socio-economic aspects of the regions in the direct area of influence of TAV The region that includes Rio de Janeiro - Sao Paulo - Campinas is the most important economic region of the country. The states of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo account for 30% of the population and 45.5% of its GDP (Source: IBGE, 2007). Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: municipalities in the axis of the high-speed line The 41 municipalities in the axis of the Rio–São Paulo-Campinas high speed line would correspond to the country's second largest state in terms of population, GDP and higher GDP per Capita of the country. GEOGRAPHICAL AREA São Paulo State (26 municipalities) GDP Population (In thousand U.S. $) GDP per Capita (in U.S. $) 16.024.394 255,480,865 15.943,25 9.459.671 113,960,584 12.046,99 25.484.065 369,441,449 14.496,96 183.987.291 1,549,635,801 8.422,52 Rio de Janeiro State (15 municipalities) Municipalities along the route of TAV (41) BRAZIL Municipalities along the route of TAV in relation to Brazil 13,9% 23,8% 172,1% Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: and the main HS lines in the world The high speed line Rio - São Paulo - Campinas is comparable to the main HS lines in the world in terms of distance, air traffic and population in key cities. MAIN HIGH SPEED LINES LINE DISTANCE POPULATION (km) (millions hab) AIR TRAFFIC(*) (millions pax/year) TOKYO - OSAKA 515 9-3 1,7 1964 PARIS - LYON 414 9-1 1,0 1981 SEOUL - PUSAN 419 19 - 4 5,2 2003 1.318 8 - 10 MADRID - BARCELONA 620 6-5 4,8 2007 RIO - SÃO PAULO 420 11 - 19 4,6 2006 BEIJING - SHANGAI (*) BEFORE THE INTRODUCTION OF HIGH SPEED LINE Source:PROF. A. LOPEZ PITA presentation at ANTT in jul 2010. N.D Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Demand for Transport in 2008 Passenger transport matrix- 2008 (thousand passengers/year) Modal transport Rio - São Paulo Rio - Campinas Regional Air 4.414 275 Car 1.207 87 15.771 17.065 Bus 1.687 121 10.040 11.848 7.308 483 25.811 33.602 Total --- Total 4.689 Passenger transport matrix- 2008 (em %) Modal transport Rio - São Paulo Rio - Campinas Regional Total Air 60,4 56,9 --- 14,0 Car 16,5 18,0 61,1 50,8 Bus 23,1 25,1 38,9 35,3 100 100 100 100 Total Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Demand for Transport - Mode split and reasons for travel Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Fare Parameters (US$) Transport modal ORIGIN DESTINATION TAV Economy Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Rio de Janeiro Volta Redonda/Barra Mansa São José dos Campos São Paulo São Paulo (peak hour) Air Business Car Bus 104.00 169.00 208.00 71.30 34.84 São Paulo 78.00 130.00 93.60 71.30 34.84 Campinas 104.00 182.00 208.00 83.62 39.00 Volta Redonda/Barra Mansa 20.90 - - 21.56 14.23 São José dos Campos 53.20 - - 56.88 26.52 São José dos Campos 35.57 - - 38.01 17.68 São Paulo 50.70 - - 54.52 23.92 Campinas 61.62 - - 65.76 30.68 São Paulo 14.98 - - 16.39 9.00 Campinas 25.48 - - 26.99 14.04 Campinas 16.22 - - 19.44 9.36 Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Travel Time Parameters (minutes) ORIGIN DESTINATION Transport Mode TAV Air Car Bus Rio de Janeiro São Paulo 93 110 300 375 Rio de Janeiro Campinas 128 Volta Redonda/Barra Mansa 34 110 - 390 105 450 130 São José dos Campos 77 - 260 300 São José dos Campos 42 - 175 230 São Paulo 71 - 240 300 Campinas 108 - 295 400 São Paulo 27 - 70 80 Campinas 64 - 120 150 Campinas 30 - 75 80 Rio de Janeiro Volta Redonda/Barra Mansa São José dos Campos São Paulo Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Demand for Transport with TAV Passenger transport matrix- 2008 (thousand passengers/year) Without TAV Modal RIO - SÃO PAULO RIO - CAMPINAS REGIONAL - TOTAL Air 4.414 275 4.689 Car 1.207 87 15.770 17.064 Bus 1.687 121 10.039 11.847 Total 7.308 483 25.809 33.600 With TAV TAV 3.519 302 14.170 17.991 Air 2.368 101 0 2.469 Car 751 31 8.108 8.890 Bus 670 49 3.531 4.250 Total 7.308 483 25.809 33.600 Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Demand Forecast (thousand passengers/year) ORIGIN DESTINATION EXPRESS SERVICE 2008 2014 2024 2034 2044 3.822 7.070 11.282 19.323 27.788 Rio de Janeiro São Paulo 3.520 6.435 10.201 17.348 24.948 Rio de Janeiro Campinas 302 635 1.081 1.975 2.840 14.170 25.538 34.777 49.774 71.577 1.017 2.619 3.271 4.211 6.055 S.J.Campos 84 211 294 422 606 S.J.Campos 44 254 337 457 657 São Paulo 88 184 233 308 443 Campinas 15 40 55 79 113 São Paulo 4.959 8.553 11.490 16.282 23.415 Campinas 598 1.305 2.003 3.110 4.473 Campinas 7.365 12.372 17.094 24.905 35.815 17.992 32.608 46.059 69.097 99.365 REGIONAL SERVICE Rio de Janeiro V.Redonda/B.Mansa S.J.Campos São Paulo TOTAL V.Redonda/B.Mansa Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Revenue Forecast US$ million ORIGEM DESTINO SERVIÇO EXPRESSO 2014 2024 2034 2044 850,1 1.355,7 2.335,9 3.359,2 Rio de Janeiro São Paulo 765,0 1.214,4 2.078,1 2.988,5 Rio de Janeiro Campinas 85,1 141,2 257,7 370,6 502,5 684,5 978,8 1.407,5 V. Redonda/B. Mansa 61,3 76,6 98,6 141,7 S.J. dos Campos 12,6 17,5 25,1 36,1 S.J. dos Campos 10,1 13,4 18,2 26,1 São Paulo 10,4 13,3 17,5 25,1 Campinas 2,7 3,8 5,4 7,8 São Paulo 143,4 192,2 273,0 392,6 Campinas 37,2 57,2 88,7 127,6 Campinas 224,7 310,5 452,4 650,6 1.352,6 2.040,2 3.314,7 4.766,7 SERVIÇO REGIONAL Rio de Janeiro V. Redonda/B. Mansa S.J. dos Campos São Paulo TOTAL Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Engineering and Alignment Parameters of the railroad: Gauge: 1435 mm Max. Speed Project: 350 km / h Min. horizontal radius: 7228 m Min. Vertical radius: 42.875 m Slope max: 35 mm / m Train axle load: 17 t Platform: 500 m Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Engineering and Alignment Parameters used in defining the track alignment ü Technical and operational parameters: v v v v Construction cost considered the geological risks; Travel time; Operating Cost Maintenance cost ü Social and environmental parameters: v Social Impact (expropriation, resettlement, redevelopment, relocation of roads, etc.); v Environmental impact (compensatory planting, environmental compensation, restricted areas); Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Engineering and Alignment STRETCH Extension (km) Barão de Mauá – Galeão 15.2 Galeão – Barra Mansa/Volta Redonda 102.9 Barra Mansa / Volta Redonda – S. J. Campos 209.6 S. J. Campos – Guarulhos 63.0 Guarulhos – Campo de Marte 21.6 Campo de Marte – Viracopos 76.1 Viracopos – Campinas 22.9 TOTAL EXTENSION 510.8 Tunnel 90.9 (18%) Viaducts and Brigdes 10.8 (21%) Surface 312.1 (61%) Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: CAPEX and OPEX CAPEX Item US$ thousand Total Geral % Earthwork 1,238,985.6 6,4 Structures 10,184,187.9 52,8 Buildings and equipment 795,314.5 4,1 Signalling and telecommunications 333,284.5 1,7 Permanent way 1,129,875.0 5,9 Social and environmental works 2,267,151.8 11,8 719,278.6 3,7 1,447,574.2 1,172,732.9 7,5 6,1 Electricfication Rolling stock Complementary Services TOTAL 19,288,384.9 100,0 US$ 37,761,1 thousand /Km Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: CAPEX and OPEX OPEX 2014 ITEM US$ x 106 2024 (%) US$ x 106 2034 (%) US$ x 106 2044 (%) US$ x 106 (%) 5.9 12.1 77.6 20.4 155.2 30.5 155.2 29.7 32.4 15.2 32.5 8.6 43.1 8.5 43.1 8.3 ROLLING STOCK 122.2 57.2 224.9 59.3 252.5 49.7 253.3 48.5 ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES 19.9 9.3 24.9 6.6 26.3 5.2 26.3 5.0 MARKETING & SALES 13.4 6.3 19.7 5.2 31.3 6.2 44.2 8.5 213.7 100.0 508.3 100.0 522.0 100.0 PERMANENT WAY STRUCTURES TOTAL 379.5 100.0 48 NEW CONCESSION MODEL TAV PROJECT Rio de Janeiro - São Paulo-Campinas PREMISES OF THE NEW MODEL TAV Concession divided into two phases: Ø Phase I - Allocation of the operation for transport services TAV passenger Ø Phase II – Concession of TAV infrastructure and real state development Benchmarks studies, standards requirements remain the same. and technical NEW MODEL DIAGRAM Equity BRAZILIAN GOVERNMENT Finance Guarantee ETAV Equity Transfer of technology Equity Banks ANTT Final Engineering Project Financing BNDES Financing Concession 1 Operation and infrastructure and system maintenance Concession 2 Infrastructure constructin and real stare development Banks Financing Operator/Technology Equity Infrastructure Real State Development Revenues for the use of the infrastructure Investors Expenses for the use of the infrastructure Services Revenues Investments in systems and rolling stocks Equity Real state revenues infrastructure TAV SYSTEM Transort Service Fare PASSENGERS Investment Real State Investments Civil work contract payments Investors Civil work contract Construction Companies Phase I - Allocation of the operation for TAV passenger transport services Elements of the Phase I ØSelection of technology to be adopted ØObligation to transfer the latest technology ØObligation to maintain adequate level of service ØObligation to provide technical support in implementing and certifying the conformity of the infrastructure ØFinal engineering design for the infrastructure ØOperation of the TAVT (including system and infrastructure maintenance) Phase II – Concession of TAV infrastructure and real state development Elements of the Phase II ØObligation of deployment of infrastructure designed by the operator of the Phase I ØAccess to public finance investment in infrastructure ØObligation to follow guidelines of the granting authority in contracting infrastructure works ØCommercial and real estate development in areas adjacent stations 2011 SCHEDULE PHASE I SCHEDULE August ---------------à September----------à October ----------à November ----------à 1st Semester 2012 à Model definition Phase I Public hearings – bidding documents Submission to TCU (Accounting Office) Publication of bidding documents Phase I Public Auction Phase I Economic and financial aspects - CAPEX Cost items- CAPEX Earthworks Structures TOTAL 2.128.081.594,00 INFRASTRUCTURE OPERATION 2.128.081.594,00 17.492.361.179,00 17.492.361.179,00 Permanent way 1.940.673.312,00 1.940.673.312,00 Builduings and equipment 1.366.032.061,00 1.366.032.061,00 Signalling 287.227.820,00 287.227.820,00 Telecommunication 285.221.600,00 285.221.600,00 Electrification 1.235.433.004,00 435.817.800,00 Socio-environmental costs 3.894.059.939,00 3.894.059.939,00 Rolling stock 2.486.353.374,00 Complementary services 1.889.286.044,00 1.389.563.123,93 ANTT regulatory costs 75.000.000,00 75.000.000,00 Performance bond 50.000.000,00 50.000.000,00 TOTAL 799.615.204,00 2.486.353.374,00 603.095.643,37 33.129.729.927,00 28.771.589.008,93 4.461.513.641,37 Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: Transfer of Technology Ø Bidder shall present a proposal for a Program for Transfer of Technology in certain areas defined as technological focus. v The Technology Transfer shall comprise all technical and scientific knowledge created and transmitted through materials, processes, methods, tools and technical assistance programs and training, necessary for the construction, operation and maintenance TAV systems; v The technology provider shall ensure, on a non-costly base, to transfer all technology related to the technological focus for the Federal Public Enterprise, or Local Agents indicated by it; v To encourage the development of Brazilian industry and market, the Concessionaire shall ensure a minimum percentage of local content of goods and services used in the construction and operation of TAV. Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: CHALLENGES Ø ACCESSIBILITY - Investments to improve users' access to stations by means of mass transportation and high capacity urban roads; Ø QUALIFICATION OF DOMESTIC INDUSTRY – Implementation of programs for the transfer and absorption of technology, with increased investment in domestic industry to offer, in a competitive way, equipment, systems and services for expansion of high-speed network; Ø QUALIFICATION OF WORK FORCE - Training of professionals to meet future demand in the industry segment of high-speed transport services; Ø URBAN TRANSFORMATION - Improving the quality of life in cities serviced by TAV in order to avoid the bottlenecks resulting from the implementation of high-speed lines; Ø ENVIRONMENTAL LICENSING - Obtaining environmental permits in time and with priority given to preservation of the environment to effectively capture the advantages of high speed transport; Brazil HSL - TAV Brasil: CHALLENGES EXPANSION OF HIGH SPEED NETWORK IN BRAZIL Studies included the PAC II EF-333 National Plan for Railroad EF-222 Line under bidding process TREM DE ALTA VELOCIDADE THANKS! www.tavbrasil.gov.br RAILROAD TRANSPORTATION IN BRAZIL: THE DECADE OF CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Vicente Abate – President of ABIFER - Brazilian Association of the Railroad Industry Minneapolis, September 20, 2011 ABIFER, 34 years INSTITUTIONAL PRESENTATION ABIFER OUR MISSION To instigate the Brazilian railway industry growth through incentives to freight and mass transportation expansion and permanent technical support to rail operators and end users. ABIFER OUR VISION To be the reference body in Brazil and Latin America for the subjects related to rail transportation. OUR VALUES > Focus in Brazil > Business belief > Transparency in our actions > Sustained growth > Value creation ASSOCIATES WHO WE ARE 1 Vehicles, Systems and Components manufacturers for the railway marketplace. 2 Design companies, Engineering consultants and Service providers to the railway segment. ASSOCIATES ASSOCIATES MAIN PRODUCTS > Diesel-Electric and Diesel-Hydraulic Locomotives > Freight cars > Steel mill cars > Electrical Unit Trains for Metro and Suburb > High Speed Trains > LRV – Light Rail Vehicles > Monorails > Signalling, Electrification and Telecommunication Systems > Bogies, Wheels, Axles, Springs, Bearings, Couplers, Brake and Traction Motors > Track Materials: Elastic clips l Junction bonds l Turnouts l Sleepers l Welding ASSOCIATES MAIN SERVICES > Engineering > Consulting > Maintenance, Repair and Modernization of vehicles, systems and components INVESTMENTS Source: ABIFER RAILWAY INDUSTRY R$1.1 billion (from 2003 to 2010) Expansion and modernization of the existing plants, new plants and new technology ANNUAL CAPACITIES ABIFER associates have increased year by year their production capacity 12000 900 FREIGHT CARS PASSENGER CARS 150 LOCOMOTIVES INNOVATIONS IMPLEMENTED BY THE BRAZILIAN RAILWAY INDUSTRY > > > > > > > > > High capacity 150 ton gondola cars for iron ore transportation with 37.5 ton per axle bogies; Hopper cars for sugar transportation with fast unload system and all doors operated by only one man; Double stack cars for containers transportation; Electronically Controlled Pneumatic brake systems for freight cars; Railway wheels made of micro-alloyed steel; 4,400 HP AC diesel-electric locomotives; Diesel-hydraulic yard and line locomotives; CBTC signalling systems(driverless); Passenger cars with air conditioning system, closed circuit TV and larger doors for easy access for people with special needs; > Shock absorbers in metros to reduce track noise and vibration; > Concrete sleepers for environment friendly use. Source: AmstedMaxion IRON ORE GONDOLA CAR > BROAD GAUGE (1,600 mm) State owned Railroad (until 1997) VALE and MRS (2000) VALE and MRS (2007) VALE and MRS (2009/2010) G.R.L (t) 120 120 130 150 Light weight (t) 25 19 19 22 Load (t) 95 101 111 128 Load gain (t) - 6 16 33 BULK SUGAR HOPPER CAR IMPROVEMENTS OLD CARS NEW CARS LOAD (ton) 80 100 DISCHARGE TIME (minutes) 45 1 PEOPLE FOR DISCHARGE (ea) 6 1 PRODUCTION FREIGHT CARS BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION Source: ABIFER > PER DECADE 30.600 11.500 3.400 28.200 40.000 70 80 90 00 10(F) Source: ABIFER FREIGHT CARS BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION 2.399 4.740 7.597 3.668 1.327 5.118 1.022 3.261 5.000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (F) LOCOMOTIVES BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION Source: ABIFER > PER DECADE 638 256 69 175 2.100 70 80 90 00 10(F) Source: ABIFER LOCOMOTIVES BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION 0 0 6 14 30 30 22 68 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 100 2011 (F) Source: ABIFER PASSENGER CARS BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION > PER DECADE 950 1.460 640 1.930 4.000 70 80 90 00 10(F) Source: ABIFER PASSENGER CARS BRAZILIAN PRODUCTION 79 45 179 113 283 447 440 430 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 450 2011 (F) RAILWAY VEHICLES GONDOLA CARS MRS VALE HOPPER CARS FERTILIZERS AUTOMATIC DISCHARGE BALLAST SUGAR AUTOMATIC DISCHARGE IRON ORE SOYBEAN PRODUCTS AUTOMATIC DISCHARGE PHOSPHATE OTHER TYPES AUTOMOBILE CAR DOUBLE STACK FUEL SPINE CAR LNG TRANSPORTATION LOCOMOTIVES DIESEL-ELECTRIC DIESEL-HYDRAULIC PASSENGER CARS Metro - SP CPTM – SP (suburb) LIGHT RAIL VEHICLES Brasília Cariri MONORAILS RAILROAD FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION IN BRAZIL ON GOING PROJECTS Source: Ministério dos Transportes FREIGHT TRANSPORTATION MARKET SHARE Source: PNLT/ MT CURRENT AND PROJECTED Rail M. Share (%) 29 33 35 Network (km1000) 35 41 50 ABIFER Estimations RAILROAD PASSENGER TRANSPORTATION IN BRAZIL URBAN RAILROAD SYSTEMS • Fortaleza (METROFOR) • Linha Oeste (VLT) CMTP - Metrô de Teresina • Trens de superfície - Natal • Trens de superfície – João Pessoa • Metrô de Recife • Trens de superfície - Recife • Trens de superfície - Maceió • Metrô de Salvador • Trem de subúrbio de Salvador • Metrô de Brasília • Metrô de Belo Horizonte • Metrô do Rio de Janeiro • SUPERVIA • Metrô-SP, Monotrilho e VLT • Trens de superfície – CPTM • Trensurb - Porto Alegre Serviços Regionais Jundiaí • Tempo de viagem estimado : até 25 minutos • 45 a 48 km • Situação atual: elaboração do projeto funcional. Sorocaba • Tempo de viagem estimado : até 40 minutos • 90 km • Situação atual: elaboração do projeto funcional novos padrões de serviços: Competitivo Confortável Seguro Regularidade Confiabilidade Acessibilidade Integrado CPTM Malha Ferroviária Localizaç ão Central à Definir Estudo da Mobilidade da Macro Metrópole Paulista • Em processo de contratação Santos • Tempo de viagem estimado : 40 minutos • 72 km • Situação atual: em contratação do projeto funcional TAV HIGH SPEED TRAIN TAV EXPECTED IMPACTS Labor Generation Technological Development Time Reduction Adjustment in the demand: highways and airports Pollution Reduction Traffic Reduction TAV ON GOING PROJECTS AVAILABLE PLANTS IN BRAZIL FOR HIGH SPEED TRAINS ASSEMBLING IESA TTRANS AMSTEDMAXION / BOMBARDIER SIEMENS CAF ALSTOM MANY THANKS Vicente Abate President ABIFER Tel: +55 (11) 3289-1667 [email protected] www.abifer.org.br Twitter: @abifer_oficial Facebook: ABIFER Logistic Infrastructure Scenario in Brazil Marcelo Perrupato Secretary for Transportation National Policy Minneapolis, September 20, 2011 Ministry of Transportation Brazilian Economic Scenario Ministry of Transportation Positive GDP Growth for Brazil and China Annualized Quarter data * Forecasts: USA and China - JP Morgan and Brazil - Ministry of Finance Sources: BEA (USA), JPMorgan (China) and IBGE (Brasil) Ministry of Transportation Produced by: Ministry of Finance GDP Growth – International Comparison 2nd Quarter/09* - % * Growth relating to the previuos quarter (1st Q 2009) , updated annually and seasonally Source: GDW JP Morgan 09/11/2009 and IBGE for Brazil Ministry of Transportation GDP and Consumption Change in the last 12 months - % Source: IBGE Produced by: Ministry of Finance Ministry of Transportation Reduction of External Vulnerability US$ billion Source: Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce. Ministry of Transportation Produced by: Ministry of Finance Total External Net Debt % of GDP * Forecast – July 2009 Source: Central Bank of Brazil Ministry of Transportation Produced by: Ministry of Finance Foreign Exchange Reserves (International Liquidity) *Position on September 8th, 2009. Source: Central Bank of Brazil. Ministry of Transportation Prepared by: Ministry of Finance US$ billion Logistic Infrastructure Ministry of Transportation Road Network In km JURISDICTION FEDERAL STATE MUNICIPAL TOTAL NATIONAL Ministry of Transportation PAVED NON PAVED TOTAL 60,469 13,604 74,073 122,889 119,429 242,318 24,104 1,256,188 1,280,292 207,462 1,389,221 1,596,683 Rail Network Ø National Rail Network Ø Federal Rail Network under Concession 28,314 km Ø 12 concessions operated by 5 private groups and 2 state-owned companies Ministry of Transportation 29,817 km National Ports Ø 50 public ports in Brazil – sea and river Ø 26 Federal Port Companies and National Department for Transport Infrastructure (DNIT) Ø 23 States and Municipalities Ø 1 private sector Ministry of Transportation Inland Waterways Ø 28,000 km of inland waterways Ø Ø Potential utilization of over 15,000 km of new waterways Transport of over 25 million tons/year Ø Agricultural and mineral products, alcohol, construction material (sand, gravel), fertilizers Ø Main Inland Waterways under operation Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Paraná – Tietê Amazonas - Madeira Tapajós Capim Tocantins – Araguaia São Francisco Paraguai Jacuí - Taquari and Lagoa dos Patos TOTAL 1,660 km 4,164 km 1,046 km 372 km 3,040 km * 1,371 km 1,323 km 670 km 13.646 km * Usable conditions Ministry of Transportation Inland Waterways system APROXIMATED EXTENSIONS (km) BASIN STATES MAIN RIVERS NAVIGABLE AMAZÔNICA AM, PA, AC, RO, RR, e AP NORDESTE POTENTIAL TOTAL* Amazonas, Solimões, Negro, Branco, Madeira, Purus, Juruá, Tapajós, Teles Pires, Juruena, Mamoré, e Guaporé 18,300 723.5 19,023 MA e PI 1,740 2,975 4,715 Mearim, Pindaré, Itapecuru, Parnaíba e Balsas TOCANTINS/ARAGUAIA TO, MA e GO 2,200 1,300 3,500 Tocantins, Araguaiae Mortes SÃO FRANCISCO MG, BA, PE e SE 1,400 2,700 4,100 São Francisco, Grande e Corrente LESTE MG, ES e RJ - 1,094 1,094 Doce, Paraíba do Sul e Jequitinhonha TIETÊ/PARANÁ SP, PR e SC 1,900 2,900 4,800 Paraná, Tietê, Paranaíba, Grande, Ivaí e Ivinheima PARAGUAI MT, MS e PR 1,280 1,815 3,095 Paraguai, Cuiabá, Miranda, São Lourenço, Taquari e Iaurú SUL RS 600 700 1,300 Jacuí, Taquarí,Lagoa dos Patos e Lagoa Mirim URUGUAI RS e SC - 1,200 1,200 Uruguai e Ibicuí 27,420 15,407.5 42,827.5 TOTAL * Not necessarily continuous stretches. Ministry of Transportation Ro-Ro Terminal in Manaus (State of Amazonas) Construction of Tucuruí Locks Ministry (State of Pará)of Transportation Convoy on a Tietê River Canal (State of São Paulo) Convoy on the Madeira River (States of Amazonas & Rondônia) Transport Policy and Planning Ministry of Transportation The transport matrix is unbalanced considering the size of Brazil 4% Road Rail Water Pipe/Air 13% 25% Ministry of Transportation 58% which is proved as compared with similar-size countries. Russia 81% 8% 11% Canada 46% 43% 11% Australia 43% 53% 4% USA 43% China Brazil 32% 37% 50% 25% Rail Ministry of Transportation 58% Road 25% 13% 17% Water & others To organize such scenario and recover the transport sector, the Ministry of Transport has developed the National Plan for Logistics and Transportation (PNLT) Ø An instrument for strategic organization with an integrated view on the territory and development. Ø Transport as an agent to induce and facilitate development. Ø A more balanced Brazilian transport matrix with a significant participation of rail and water modes, which are more efficient in terms of economy and energy consumption, with less emission of CO2 and NOx. Ministry of Transportation PNLT indicates ways to change the transport matrix Ø Consolidation of a new Brazilian rail network (Law 11772/2008) with the implementation of 11,800 km of new rail lines, with 10,700 km of large-gauge tracks. Ø New railways will serve areas of agricultural & mineral new frontiers. Ø This new basic railway system prepares the Country for a new economic growth cycle to meet the domestic demand increase and integration with exporting ports. Ø Gradual transfer of general cargo from roads to railways, inland waterways, and coastal shipping. Ministry of Transportation The Brazilian power generation matrix is clean, based on hydro-electric plants. It is needed to make this feature compatible with navigation needs Power Generation Matrix – Brazil and the World (%) 100% 5 90% 1 4 2 Other 80% 38 41 70% Coal 60% Hydraulic 50% 85 12 16 40% 23 30% 20% 10% 0% 15 20 20 3 3 3 4 6 BRAZIL 2007 OECD2006 483 TWh - 89% 10,460 TWh - 16% Ministry of Transportation Nuclear Gas Petroleum WORLD 18,930 TWh - 18% % renewable Source: MME Power Generation Matrix in Brazil is markedly renewable Ministry of Transportation Energy consumption all sources (%) Souce: MME / BEM 2006 Ministry of Transportation Oil consumption by sectors (%) Source: MME / BEN 2006 Ministry of Transportation Transport Matrix - Present and Future 60 58 50 40 35 30 30 20 25 Road Rail 29 Water Pipe 13 10 Air 3.6 5 1 0.4 0 2005 2015 2020 Source: PNLT Processing, considering energy consumption Ministry of Transportation 2025 Benefits from the Transport Matrix change 2005 to 2023/2025 (Transport production grows from 851 to 1,510 bi TKU) Ø 38% of energy efficiency increase Ø 41% of fuel consumption reduction Ø 32% of CO2 emission reduction Ø 39% of NOx emission reduction Ministry of Transportation PAC Growth Acceleration Program Ministry of Transportation Background Ø Brazil has faced a long period of low investment in logistic infrastructure Ø Better economic conditions have allowed: Ø Rehabilitation of public investment capability Ø Favorable scenario for partnerships with the private sector • Road Concessions • Railroad Concessions Ministry of Transportation PAC Ø After two decades, it is the first initiative to accomplish a significant program of investments in transportation Ø Public investments selected from the PNLT Ø Projects with strong potential for generating economic & social return Ø Synergy among projects Ø Rehabilitation of the existing infrastructure Ø New projects and conclusion of projects under way Ministry of Transportation Main PAC’s Projects ØHighways Ø Construction of new highways Ø Expansion of the existing road capacity Ø Rehabilitation of the existing road network 2,989 km 1,926 km 53,585 km ØRailways Ø Rail network capacity increase Ø Expansion of the rail network (12,000 km): 2,700 under construction; 1,500 to be built; 5,300 under studies & design; 2,500 under analysis ØInland Waterways Ø Construction of inland waterway terminals in Amazonia Ø Construction of locks ØIncentive to Shipbuilding (Financing) Ø Construction of ocean-going, coastal, maritime aid and river vessels (384 vessels, 103 of which finished) Ø Construction and modernization of 8 shipyards Ministry of Transportation Partnerships with the Private Sector Ministry of Transportation Road Concessions 1st phase of the Federal Highway Concession Program 1,482 km in 3 States: Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Rio Grande do Sul (Concluded) 2nd phase of the Federal Highway Concession Program 3,228 km in 6 States: Bahia, Minas Gerais, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Paraná and Santa Catarina (Concluded) 3rd phase of Federal Highway Concession Program 2,230 km in 5 States: Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Goiás, Federal District and Santa Catarina Bidding in 2010 Ministry of Transportation FEDERAL HIGHWAY CONCESSION PROGRAM Niterói 1st Phase 1,482 km 2nd Phase 3,228 km 3rd Phase 2,230 km Ministry of Transportation Railway Program Ø Public investment together with private funds from the entrepreneur Ø Ø North-South Railway • 719 km – Açailândia/MA – Palmas/TO – sub-concession concluded in Dec. 2007 • 1,535 km – Palmas/TO – Estrela d’Oeste/SP – under way: construction works, section Palmas/Anápolis (855 km); and studies relating the section Anápolis/Estrela d’Oeste (680 km) West-East Integration Railway • 1,490 km – Figueirópolis-TO / Ilhéus-BA • Studies and project under way Ministry of Transportation Projects for Railways Expansion in Brazil Ministry of Transportation High Speed Train Rio de Janeiro – São Paulo – Campinas Ø Ø Ø Extension: 511 km Serves the most populous and economically developed region in Brazil Studies on demand, alignment, geology, operation and economic-financial modeling are concluded Ø Call for bidding and auction for technology: 1st semester of 2012 ØTransfer of technology is mandatory The winner will be responsible for : Øfinal engineering design Ømaintenance Øoperation Ø Call for bidding and auction for the High Speed Train: ØConstruction Ministry of Transportation High Speed Train Rio de Janeiro - São Paulo - Campinas PROPOSED STATIONS STATION LOCATIONS Ministry of Transportation Major Directives from the Ministry of Cities for Urban Mobility Implement corridors and transport equipments for all major cities with more than 300 thousand inhabitants, state capitals and metropolitan regions, focusing bus and rail systems, including 60% expansion in the existing metro network PAC mobilility goals: Ø Existing network: 215,7 km Ø Expansion of 133,5 km up to 2022 Ø Metro network (São Paulo, Rio, Recife, B. Horizonte, Salvador, Fortaleza, Brasília) Ø Rail & VLT (São Paulo, Rio, P. Alegre, Natal, Salvador, J. Pessoa, Recife, Fortaleza, Maceió, N. Hamburgo, Curitiba) Ministry of Transportation • Metrô de Fortaleza • Trens de superfície – Fortaleza (METROFOR) • Linha Oeste (VLT) • Trens de superfície - Natal • Trens de superfície – João Pessoa • Metrô de Recife • Trens de superfície - Recife • Trens de superfície - Maceió • Metrô de Salvador • Trem de subúrbio de Salvador • Metrô de Brasília • Metrô de Belo Horizonte • Metrô do Rio de Janeiro • Rio de Janeiro - SUPERVIA • Metrô, monotrilho e VLT de São Paulo • Trens de superfície – São Paulo – CPTM • Trens de superfície - Porto Alegre Ministry of Transportation São Paulo Metro Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø 4 existing lines totalling 62.3 km 3,500,000 pax/day 12 km expansion (private operation) 11 km of new line (5) in 2015 24 km of 2 monorail lines in 2014 Expansion Expresso Tiradentes - 23 km monorail Expansion of 6 km Orange line subway. Basic Design 12 km Monorail or VLT: S. Bernardo-São Paulo CPTM VLT Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ministry of Transportation 6 existing lines totalling 260.8 km 2,150,000 pax/day New line (13) with 20 km in 2025 84 new trains (8 cars each) in 2014 Design Capacity: 4,100,000 pax/day(3 min headway) PPP operation under analysis mapa Maceió Diesel VLT Ministry of Transportation Ø Ø 1 existing line totalling 32.1 km 6,000 pax/day Ø System is under improvement with VLT rolling stock mapa Salvador Surface Rail Ø Ø Ø Ø 1 existing line totalling 17 km 12,000 pax/day Under improvement Public operation Salvador Metro Ø Ø Ø Ø Ministry of Transportation 1 existing line totalling 6 km Expansion to 12 km in 2011 200,000 pax/day forecast Public operation mapa Fortaleza Metro South Line (under construction) Ø Ø Ø Ø 1 line totalling 17 km 190,000 pax/day Operation in 2011 2 lots of 10 trains each (with 4 cars) Fortaleza Diesel VLT West line Ø Ø Ø Ø Ministry of Transportation 1 existing line totalling 21 km 8,000 pax/day May be expanded for integration with the metro system State public operation mapa Brasília Metro Brasília Ministry of Transportation Ø 1 existing line totalling 40.3 km Ø 120,000 pax/day Ø Expansion of Rolim stock for 190,000 pax/day Ø Public Operation mapa Belo Horizonte Metro - CBTU Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø Ministry of Transportation 1 existing line totalling 2.2 km 170,000 pax/day Capacity forecast: 240,000 pax/day Need for 10 new trains (4 cars each) Final engineering design for Lines 2 and 3 totalling 33.8 km mapa João Pessoa VLT - CBTU Ministry of Transportation Ø Ø 1 existing line totalling 30 KM 11,000 pax/day Ø Design for improvement under analysis mapa Recife Metro - CBTU Ø Ø Ø Ø 2 existing lines totalling 39.7 km 220,000 pax/day 15 TUE (eletric train unit) Public operation Recife VLT South Line Ø Ø Ø Ø Ministry of Transportation 2 existing lines totalling 26.1 km 6,000 pax/day Under improvement (connecting to SUAPE Industrial Port) PAC I mapa Rio de Janeiro Metro Ø Ø Ø Ø Ø 2 existing lines totalling 35.6 km 550,000 pax/day Line 4 under construction with14 km (Ipanema - Barra da Tijuca) Demand forecast 250,000 pax/day Prospective construction of Line 3 (Niterói -São Gonçalo) for Olympic Games 2016 Rio de Janeiro Metro SUPERVIA Ø Ø Ø Ø Ministry of Transportation 5 existing lines totalling 225 km 500,000 pax/day 1,100,000 pax/day demand forecast Lines and Stations Improvement with 90 addition TUE (eletric train units) to attend Olympic Games 2016 mapa Natal Diesel VLT Ministry of Transportation Ø 2 existing lines totalling 56.2 km Ø 7,000 pax/day Ø Future improvement under analysis mapa Porto Alegre VLT TRENSURB Ø Ø Ø Ø Ministry of Transportation 1 existing line totalling 33.8 km 160,000 pax/day Expansion of 9 km in 2011 with 8 new TUE (6 cars each) Demand forecast: 200,000 pax/day mapa Passengers traffic on railway cargo network Ø Low demand cargo lines: Feasibility studies are financed by the Ministry of Transport and implementation and operation by private enterprises, basically for tourism sector (14 prospective services throughout the Country) Ø Regular demand cargo lines: Passengers traffic operated in non priority basis Ø New railway expansion lines: Passengers traffic may be effectively operated in regular basis (under analysis by the Government) Ministry of Transportation Highlights of the Inland Waterway Sector Ministry of Transportation Inland Waterway Map Navigable stretches Ministry of Transportation Inland Waterway Development Ø Brazil is already developing the rehabilitation and structuring of the railway system Ø Now the challenge is to structure an inland waterway system that contributes to a better equilibrium of the Brazilian transport matrix in terms of energy, economy and sustainability Ø Such an arrangement implies a governmental articulation concerning the multiple use of water resources and the appropriate environmental handling Ministry of Transportation Strategic Inland Waterway Plan Structures an organized and comprehensive instrument that, on the basis of the main potential-navigation hydrographic regions, aims to: Ø Identify dredging and rock blasting works Ø Identify and ranking works of dam crossing Ø Structure inland waterway terminals Ø Define institutional parameters for the inland waterway sector, considering the multiple use of water (water supply, irrigation, energy generation (Brazilian matrix is clean, basically hydro-electric generation), recreation, sanitation and transportation Strong articulation and integration with other public and private agencies (especially the National Water Agency) Ministry of Transportation Inland Waterway Regions LEGEND Amazônica Tocantins / Araguaia Atlântico Nordeste Ocidental Parnaíba Atlântico Nordeste Oriental São Francisco Atlântico Leste Atlântico Sudeste Atlântico Sul Paraguai Paraná Uruguai Source: Divisão Hidrográfica Nacional, Conselho Nacional de Recursos Hídricos, Resolução nº 32 de 15 de outubro de 2003. Ministry of Transportation Opportunities for Cooperation Ø All those points, specially concerning the increasing of the railway network, represent challenges to be faced by Brazil, as well as opportunities for transferring technology and international experience and for partnership on investments. Ø Worldwide countries will certainly be important partners in such a process. Ministry of Transportation www.transportes.gov.br F@le com o Ministério Ministry of Transportation