Brazilian Aviation Agenda 2020
Transcrição
Brazilian Aviation Agenda 2020
www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Brazilian Aviation Agenda 2020 www.abear.com.br 1 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Mission “ To encourage the habit of flying in Brazil by planning, implementing, and supporting actions and programs to promote the growth of civil aviation in a consistent and sustainable way, for both passenger and cargo transportation. ” 2 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) ABEAR members The association was created in August 2012 The founding companies Members Together we account for 99% of the domestic market** with 2,700 flights per day 492 aircraft * Trip and Azul were merged in 2013 under the name Azul **Measured in RPK (Revenue Passenger Kilometer). Sources: ANAC/2013; Airlines 3 Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) www.abear.com.br Program areas Competitiveness Creation of an environment favorable to the development of the airline industry, with cost review and infrastructure improvements, to provide products and services of increasing quality. ABEAR’s proposals include dialogue and participation in airport concession processes. Sustainability Adoption of sustainable practices across all links in the industry chain, with investments focused on: » Development of sustainable aviation biofuel » Continuous review of air traffic control procedures, to allow more direct flights and less waiting time in the air » Review of the airlines’ operational and administrative procedures, with a view to reducing environmental impact People Relationship with consumers. Investment in training, education, and specialization of professionals working in air transportation and supporting industries. 4 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Generation of employment and income 1.2 million US$ 30.4 billion 179,000 direct 432,000 indirect 276,000 induced* 329,000 by the effect on tourism US$ 1.7 billion in direct wages paid US$ 10 billion direct US$ 8.3 billion indirect US$ 4.6 billion induced* US$ 7.5 billion by the effect on tourism US$ 9.2 billion US$ 5.7 billion US$ 4 billion direct US$ 3.3 billion indirect US$ 1.9 billion induced* Effect on tourism not measured Embraer is the world’s 3rd largest aircraft manufacturer, producing about 200 aircraft per year** jobs in taxes paid added to GDP in sales of aircraft and equipment Conversion rate: US$ 1 = R$ 2.4. * Effect of the consumption of direct and indirect employees. ** 2013 Sources: Study by Oxford Economics-IATA 2009; Bain & Co (estimate in January 2013); Wages reported by the ABEAR members; Embraer 5 Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Turnover of goods and services US$ 52.7 billion was the turnover of air transportation in Brazil’s trade turnover (imports plus exports) in 2013 This represents 11% of the total turnover (of US$ 481 billion), but only 0.17% of the total weight carried Sources: MDIC; CNT 6 www.abear.com.br www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Brazil: the world’s third largest domestic market Growth is the result of economic development and reduction in airfares Passengers carried (domestic, in millions) 700 648 600 500 400 317 300 200 92 100 60 55 0 USA China Brazil India Japan Sources: OACI 2013; DoT/Bureau of Transportation Statistics (USA) 7 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) More passengers each year Growth in domestic and international travels from 2002* to 2013 is 208% Passengers carried in Brazil (domestic and international, in millions) 208% growth 100 93 109 111 79 80 65 60 40 36 33 2002 2003 37 45 49 54 58 2007 2008 20 0 2004 2005 2006 2009 2010 2011 *In 2002, deregulation (pricing freedom) becomes effective in Brazil’s domestic air transportation Source: ANAC. Includes regular and non-regular, fare-paying and non-fare-paying air passengers, as well as frequent-flyer program passengers, recorded by Brazilian airlines in all Brazilian airports. 8 2012 2013 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) An expanding market Brazilians are flying more and more Progress in the number of passengers compared to population growth (2002-2013) 0.60 0.51 0.55 0.48 0.50 0.41 0.40 0.30 0.20 0.25 0.20 0.18 0.26 0.31 0.34 2008 2009 0.29 0.20 0.10 0.00 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: ANAC; SRE; GEAC The United States and Australia showed the highest ratios of air passengers to population, with over 5 trips per inhabitant per year. Spain has a ratio above 4. Other European nations such as France, Germany, and Italy have ratios above 2. While the world’s most populous country, China, has less than one trip per inhabitant. 9 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Flying is increasingly cost-effective In 2002, there were no tickets for less than R$ 100 (US$ 41.7). In 2013, they accounted for almost 10% of seats sold Seats sold by average airfare ranges From 2002 to 2013, the average domestic fare dropped by 40%, from R$ 545.62 (US$ 227.34) to R$ 326.72 (US$ 136.13) Actual average airfare range (in R$) 2013 2002 35 19.50 19.04 14.15 0.87 0.82 1.23 0.77 0.53 0.39 0.40 0.18 10 0.50 1. 50 0 0 50 an 0 40 1. 1.84 >= 1. < d d an >= 1. 30 0 an 20 0 >= 1. >= 1. 40 < 1. 30 < d d 0 1. 10 >= 0 0 1. < < d an 0 1. 00 20 10 1. 00 1. d an 0 90 Conversion rate: US$ 1 = R$ 2.4. Sources: ANAC/SRE/GEAC, “Tarifas Aéreas Domésticas”, ANAC, February 25, 2014 0 1.31 0 1.69 < < d 0 80 2.62 0 0 90 80 an an 2.45 an 1.82 0 0 < 0 0 60 2.66 70 0 < d >= >= 50 0 an d an 0 40 >= 60 0 50 < 40 < d an >= 30 0 0 20 >= 0 0 < d < d an 0 10 30 0 20 10 < d an 0 >= an 0 3.93 4.28 >= 5.95 0.03 5.14 < 8.97 70 4.05 d 5 8.50 >= 9.81 an 10 >= 13.77 d 15 Fares less than R$ 300 (US$ 125) 2002 = 23% of seats 2013 = 58.9% of seats 17.67 15.55 0 Seats sold (%) 20 >= 25 > Fares less than R$ 100 (US$ 41.7) 2002 = 0% of seats 2013 = 9.8% of seats 29.58 30 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Democratization of air travel in Brazil An effect of increasing income in Brazil and cheaper tickets 800 Minimum wage (per month, in R$) 724 107% 700 678 622 600 545 510 500 415 465 380 400 350 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014* *First quarter Source: IPEA. Cheaper airfares + Increasing income of Brazilians = The new consumer is flying more 11 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Consequences of economic growth Increase in Brazilian travel spending (2000 to 2012) Distribution of passengers* by monthly household income Number of travels per year* (% of passengers) 242% 6% 9% 36% 41% 19% 64% 85% 15% 10% 41% Social class Up to 10 minimum wages AB C DE It is in the new middle class that travel spending has increased the most over the past ten years Source: Market research by Data Popular * Domestic and international travels 12 More than 10 minimum wages 36% of all passengers carried by Brazilian companies are middle class Source: Study on the Brazilian Air Transportation Industry, BNDES, 2010 15 travels or more 3 travels 7 to 15 travels 2 travels 4 to 6 travels 1 travel The high percentage of first-time travelers reinforces the trend towards democratization Source: Study on the Brazilian Air Transportation Industry, BNDES, 2010 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Supply of seats to meet the growing demand The number of seats on flights growed continuously on the last decade in Brazil Available capacity in domestic flights (ASK billions)* 150 137% 116 120 116 103 100 50 0 49 2002 43 2003 45 51 2004 2005 57 2006 67 2007 75 2008 86 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: ANAC * Acronym for Available Seat Kilometer. The variable, which represents the supply of passenger air transportation, is obtained by multiplying the number of available seats by the number of kilometers flown 13 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) More satisfied passengers Respect for the consumer is a constant point of attention for airlines Industries that most respect consumer rights Number of comments* from passengers Since 2010, the number of comments from passengers has decreased by more than 68%** 1 is the one that least respects and 15 is the one that most respects 15 Cosmetics 14 Food and beverage 13 40,000 Automotive 12 39,579 Insurance 11 Civil aviation 10 30,000 Interstate buses 9 24,680 Electric power 8 20,000 Health plan 7 14,725 10,000 12,555 Wireline 6 Electrical/electronic 5 Broadband 4 0 Credit cards 3 2010 2011 2012 2013 Pay TV 2 1 *Reviews, complaints, questions, and compliments **ANAC’s ombudsman report 14 Mobile phone Banking Source: Instituto Ibero-Americano de Relacionamento com Cliente (April 2013) www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Growth potential Passenger transportation is forecast to grow by 109% and cargo transportation by 58% until 2020 Potential number of passengers carried in Brazil (domestic and international, in millions) 300 109% 211 191 200 172 156 100 114 127 141 101 105 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 50 51 54 57 61 66 72 76 81 0 Exports + imports by air (US$ billions) Source: Bain & Co (estimate in January 2013) – data prior to the revision date of this edition and projections are kept as in the original study 15 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Generation of jobs The projected growth for the airline industry has the potential to generate 600,000 new jobs Number of employees in the airline industry in Brazil (thousands) 660,000 new jobs (about 100,000 direct jobs in airlines) 2,000 1,875 1,785 1,500 1,097 1,000 939 297 254 249 500 319 267 1,215 329 276 345 289 1,344 387 390 419 432 453 1,518 411 434 1,695 458 363 305 213 334 0 1,178 1,275 1,431 1,605 478 325 344 364 384 483 405 425 Tourism 509 540 571 603 635 667 Induced Indirect Direct 138 161 173 179 187 197 210 223 236 249 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 262 276 2019 2020 Sources: RAIS; ANAC; Study by Oxford-IATA; Bain & Co (estimate in January 2013) – data prior to the revision date of this edition and projections are kept as in the original study 16 507 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Contribution to GDP By 2020, the Brazilian airline industry is expected to add R$ 146 billion to the country’s gross domestic product For every 1% increase in GDP, the airline industry grows by 2.5% Value directly added by the airline industry to GPD (in billions of nominal R$) 300 R$ 146 billion 219 191 200 166 145 126 109 100 54 65 73 83 94 42 0 Share in GDP 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 2.0% Source: Bain & Co (estimate in January 2013) – data prior to the revision date of this edition and projections are kept as in the original study 17 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Poor geographic distribution Passenger air transportation is currently concentrated in a few regions Air transportation by IBGE mesoregion (2012) 98 Number of airports* 18 24 56 97 Number of passengers (millions) 74 19 4 50 100 Regions with more than 5 million passengers Regions with 1 to 5 million passengers Regions with up to 1 million passengers Regions without airports Source: Bain & Co (estimate in January 2013) *Airports managed by Infraero and by DAESP 18 150 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Airport overload Out of the twelve major airports in the country, eight are already operating at or above their declared capacity Declared capacity vs. use in major Brazilian airports (in millions of passengers) 40 In 2012, the following airports were given in concession to the private sector: Guarulhos in São Paulo; Viracopos in Campinas; and Juscelino Kubitschek in Brasília. In 2013, Galeão in Rio de Janeiro and Confins in Belo Horizonte Use 31 32 Capacity 30 20 17 17 16 16 17 17 10 10 10 13 13 9 9 9 8 7 42 9 8 7 8 6 6 6 Ri o a Fo rta le z ci fe Re ba rit i Cu as pi n Ca m de Ja Ga nei le ro Be ão lo Ho r Co izon nfi te ns R Sa io nt de os Ja Du ne m iro on t Sa lva do r Po rto Al eg re ília Br as S Co ão ng Pa on ul ha o s S Gu ão P ar au ul lo ho s 0 Sources: Infraero; concessionaires 19 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) High operational costs Fuel prices and taxes represent major bottlenecks ATF Prices* ICMS on ATF Fuel accounts for up to 40% of the costs of an airline Any difference in the ATF final price has a great impact on business Currently ICMS rates range from 4% to 25% in major airports A result of the different tax rates, it is a common practice for companies to plan the network to fuel up at the point with the lowest ICMS This practice has negative consequences for everyone: » Environment: the higher fuel consumption increases pollutant gas emissions » Airlines: operational inefficiencies » State governments: the “tax rate war” reduces tax collection in states with higher ICMS rates » Passengers: tickets become more expensive * Aviation turbine fuel 20 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Fuel cost Pricing formulas and taxes raise the price of the input for domestic aviation and affect the competitiveness of companies Although approximately 75% of the volume is produced in Brazil, ATF is priced on import parity Estimated ATF price composition in Brazil (as % of the price, average in 2009) 100 1.5 6.3 3.8 100 Others ATF Price 6.9 80 81.5 Sum = 14.7% 60 40 20 0 US Platts Freight Pipelines and storage AFRMM Sources: ANP; IATA 21 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Lilongwe - Malawi Aviation fuel price (in US$ per gallon, as of February 2014) 6.80 Cuiabá - Brazil 5.06 Manaus - Brazil 5.01 Recife - Brazil 4.75 Brazzaville - Congo 4.71 Luanda - Angola 4.63 Guarulhos - Brazil 4.60 Addis Abeba - Ethiopia 4.46 Harare - Zimbabwe 4.35 Brasília - Brazil 4.25 Accra - Ghana 3.93 Bamako - Mali Galeão - Brazil 3.91 3,87 N’Djamena - Chad 3.65 Lagos - Nigeria Source: IATA 22 3.49 Kinshasa - Congo 3.47 Manaus - Brazil 3.43 Recife - Brazil 3.42 Abidjan - Ivory Coast 3.41 Guarulhos - Brazil 3.38 Galeão - Brazil 3.37 Beirut - Lebanon 3.35 Beijing - China 3.21 Santiago - Chile 3.17 Johannesburg - South Africa 3.15 Caracas - Venezuela 3.15 Istanbul - Turkey 3.15 Amsterdam - Netherlands 3.15 Lima - Peru 3.14 New York - United States 3.11 Madrid - Spain 3.08 London - England 3.07 Miami - United States 3.06 Delhi - India 3.06 Mexico City - Mexico 3.01 Tokyo - Japan 3.00 Buenos Aires - Argentina 2.98 2.78 Moscow - Russia Domestic Flights, with ICMS International flights, exempt from ICMS Unlike domestic flights, fuel for international flights is exempt from ICMS Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) www.abear.com.br Expansion and construction The economic development and emergence of new regions are great opportunities to build or rehabilitate 71 – and expand 49 airports Need for airports by passenger traffic 90 85 80 70 60 New 56 40 50 40 New 15 30 20 10 0 12 Expansion 18 Expansion 21 Existing 11 0 to 1 million Expansion 10 Existing 4 Existing 2 1 to 5 million More than 5 million Regions with more than 5 million passengers Regions with 1 to 5 million passengers Regions with up to 1 million passengers Source: Bain & Co (estimate in January 2013) 23 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Expansion of airports and air traffic control Expanding hubs responsibly requires investing in air traffic control and review of routes and flight procedures 24 Investment in expansion and construction of new airports Expansion and construction of new airports implies the need to increase the capacity of existing airports, so that already congested hubs, such as São Paulo, can absorb a larger number of flights Review of routes and air traffic control procedures It is necessary to change routes and traffic control procedures to reduce the average flight time, cutting costs and promoting the market growth - in addition to allowing saturated airports, such as São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Brasília, to receive more flights www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Investments in aircraft For the industry to achieve its potential, airlines will have to invest R$ 26 to 36 billion in aircraft by 2020 Need for investment in aircraft (in R$ billion) 40 36 6 5 30 4 26 5 3 4 Lowest estimate 3 4 10 3 3 2 3 Number of new aircraft 4 5 20 0 Highest estimate 6 2 2013 2014 2015 2016 36 44 60 63 2017 69 2018 2019 2020 77 85 94 Accumulated total 526 Note: average aircraft valuations are based on financial statements of Brazilian publicly traded companies Source: Bain & Co (estimate in January 2013) 25 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Combined efforts To develop to its potential, the airline industry needs close collaboration between the government and private sector Government » Infrastructure: to enable investments in expansion, maintenance, and construction of airports, air traffic control, and development of new air routes » Costs: • Unification of the ICMS rate at 4% in all states Private sector » Investment: to ensure investment in the new fleet necessary to meet the growing demand » Efficiency: constant gain in operational efficiency - to make air tickets more accessible • To start talks with Petrobras to review the ATF pricing formula »Quality and safety: to continue to seek improvements in user service » Regulation: to ensure a regulatory framework » Expansion of the air network: more destinations, more flights » Sustainability » Consumer care 26 www.abear.com.br Associação Brasileira das Empresas Aéreas (Brazilian Airlines Association) Potential for 2020* Commitment and investments to resolve the industry’s problems must take Brazilian air transportation to a new level 2012 Passengers 2020 101 million 110 million 211 million Airports 96 71 airports 167 Direct domestic routes 479 316 routes 795 Employees 1.2 million 660,000 jobs Fleet 450 airplanes* 526 airplanes** Investments Private: R$ 26-36 billion 1.9 million 976 airplanes** Public: R$ 42-57 billion *Approximate amounts and quantities **ABEAR Fleet Sources: Bain & Co (estimate in January 2013); Infraero; Daesp; ANAC; IATA; HOTRAN 27
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