Brazil
Transcrição
Brazil
GERMAN BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC MEETING 2010 Panel II – Plenary Session: Energy Efficiency Munich, Germany, May 31st 2010 José Miguez General Coordinator on Global Climate Change Ministry of Science and Tecnology GHG Emissions (CO ) Perfil de Emissões Brasileiras – Caso Singular 2005 - Preliminar Data * 2e Energy Industrial Processes Agriculture/ Livestock LULUCF Waste * Second National GHG Inventory to be concluded in 2010 Fonte: MCT (2004) Primeiro Inventário Brasileiro de Emissões Antrópicas de Gases de Efeito Estufa não controladas pelo Protocolo de Montreal Brazil – Energy Matrix (%) Oil Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Wood and Charcoal Sugarcane Other renewables 3.7% / Year 253 million tep 46.0 % renewable 557 million tep 46.6 % renewable World: 13% Renewables Brazil – Electricity Matrix (%) Oil Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Biomass Hydro 4.0% / Year 85.7 % renewable 81.0 % renewable World: 18% Renewables CHALLENGES - 71,000 MW Expansion (2010/2019) or 7,100 MW/year - Oil production from 2 million bbl/day to more than 5 million bbl/day Energy Investment US$ (Billions) Electricity 118 Oil & Gas 373 Biofuels 37 Investment (Total) (*) 528 * It represents around 2.2% of GDP (cumulated in the period) CLEAN DEVELOPMENT MECHANISM (CDM) DATA Total of CDM Project Activities in the World 6221 Malaysia 3% Mexico 4% China 38% Brazil 7% India 27% China Rep. of Korea Ecuador Uganda El Salvador Cuba Côte d'Ivoire Mauritius Madagascar Rw anda 21/05/2010 India Chile Pakistan Uruguay Dominican Rep. Bangladesh Tunisia Fiji Malta Tajikistan Brazil Colombia Guatemala Armenia Nigeria Jordan Iran Qatar Mozambique Mexico Peru Panama Costa Rica Tanzania Nepal Albania Sudan Ethiopia Malaysia Argentina Egypt Singapore Georgia Senegal Lao P D R Cape Verde Sw aziland Thailand Israel Kenya Bolivia Cambodia Bhutan Cameroon Equatorial Guinea Ghana Indonesia South Africa Morroco Nicaragua Congo Mongolia Syria Guyana Zambia Viet Nan Honduras Émirats Cyprus Azerbaijan Paraguay Jamaica Kyrgyztan Mauritania Philippines Sri Lanka Uzbekistan Moldova P. N. Guinea Macedonia Mali Liberia Bahamas 500 0 C h in a In d ia B ra zil M exico M a la y s ia Th a ila n d In d on es ia V iet N a n Ph ilip p in es R ep . of K orea C h ile C olom b ia Peru A rg en tin a Is ra el S ou th A frica H on d u ra s S ri L a n k a E cu a d or Pa k is ta n G u a tem a la Pa n a m a Eg yp t K en y a M orroco É m ira ts Uzb ek is ta n Ug a n d a Uru g u a y A rm en ia C os ta R ica S in g a p ore B olivia N ica ra g u a C y p ru s M old ova E l S a lva d or D om in ica n R ep . N ig eria Ta n za n ia G eorg ia C a m b od ia C on g o A zerb a ija n P. N . G u in ea Cuba B a n g la d es h Jord a n N ep a l S en eg a l B h u ta n M on g olia Pa ra g u a y M a ced on ia C ôte d 'Ivoire Tu n is ia Ira n A lb a n ia Lao P D R C a m eroon S y ria Ja m a ica M a li M a u ritiu s Fiji Q a ta r Sud a n C a p e V erd e E q u a toria l G u in ea Guyana K y rg y zta n L ib eria M a d a g a s ca r M a lta M oza m b iq u e E th iop ia S w a zila n d G ha na Z a m b ia M a u rita n ia Bahamas Rwanda Ta jik is ta n Nº. of CDM Project Activities 2000 1750 1500 1250 1000 750 452 250 Reduced Emission on the First Crediting Period (7,152 million tCO2e) Mexico 2% China 47% Rep. of Korea 3% Brazil 5% India 24% China Argentina Uzbekistan Congo Honduras Iran Senegal Sudan Cape Verde Malta India Chile Philippines Kenya Jordan Armenia El Salvador Zambia Albania Bahamas 21/05/2010 Brazil South Africa Israel Morroco Sri Lanka Nicaragua Bangladesh Rw anda Kyrgyztan Rep. of Korea Viet Nan Egypt Dominican Rep. Georgia Uruguay Jamaica Nepal Tajikistan Mexico Azerbaijan Pakistan Tanzania Singapore Costa Rica Mauritius Ethiopia Madagascar Malaysia Colombia Ecuador Côte d'Ivoire Tunisia P. N. Guinea Lao P D R Paraguay Sw aziland Indonesia Peru Equatorial Guinea Qatar Cuba Cyprus Syria Liberia Fiji Nigeria Ghana Guatemala Émirats Bolivia Uganda Mongolia Mali Mozambique Thailand Bhutan Panama Macedonia Moldova Cambodia Cameroon Mauritania Guyana 600,000,000 0 CInh diniaa a zail R e p . oMf KeBoxr re o yicss ia ia InMdNaola n e ig e nr iad A Th rg aeCila n t in a S o u Vt hieAt frNhicile a nan ACz oe lo rbm a ija Paebnriaau G h u tt aa nn UP hz bilip eB khpis Isgin r yaepestl E P a k aisdt ao nr E q u a t oGr iau lEa cGt euum inaelaa P aCnoanm gy aao K e n D o m in icTMaaonnzrraRoencia po. C ô t e d 'Iv Q ira ao tiratesr É m M aHcoenddou nraias SGriJeLooar rdngakiaan S in gTau pn oisria e C u b a o liv M oB ld oIraviaan N icAU arr umr agegunauiaay R ic P .CNo. sGCt auyin euaas p r C aSUmegbnaeongddaiaal lv da ed sohr BEal nJS gaa la m a ic a LMa ao uPSr yitDriuiaRs o negr oo olian C Ma m Sudan RZwaNamenbpdia al aia E t h io p P a rLaibg eu ar iay li rViteM ard naia C aMpaeAu lb e az tnaian KTyar jik g yis M aSdwaagzaila s ctnaadnr M o z aGmubyiqa nuF iji aea M a lt Baham as tC O 2 e Emissions Reduction of CO2e (1º crediting period) 3,000,000,000 2,400,000,000 1,800,000,000 1,200,000,000 389,204,514 Annual Emission Reduction (866 million t CO2e) Mexico 3% Rep. of Korea 3% China 51% Brazil 6% India 20% China Viet Nan Pakistan Qatar Cuba Cambodia Mongolia Liberia Ethiopia India South Africa Israel Dominican Rep. Georgia Costa Rica Lao P D R Mali Bahamas 21/05/2010 Brazil Argentina Ecuador Honduras Nicaragua P. N. Guinea Cameroon Mauritania Malta Rep. of Korea Colombia Equatorial Guinea Moldova Tunisia Cyprus Sudan Sw aziland Mexico Peru Panama Émirats Tanzania Senegal Nepal Tajikistan Malaysia Azerbaijan Ghana Macedonia Iran Uganda Zambia Albania Indonesia Uzbekistan Guatemala Jordan Singapore Mauritius Rw anda Madagascar Thailand Bhutan Morroco Sri Lanka Uruguay Bangladesh Cape Verde Mozambique Nigeria Egypt Côte d'Ivoire Congo Armenia Syria Paraguay Guyana Chile Philippines Kenya Bolivia El Salvador Jamaica Kyrgyztan Fiji 50,000,000 0 C h in a In d ia B ra z il R ep . o f M exic o M a la y s ia In d on es ia Th a ila n d N ig eria C h ile V iet N a n S o u th A fric a A rg en tin a C olom b ia Peru A zerb a ija n Uzb ek is ta n B h u ta n Eg y p t Ph ilip p in e s Pa k is ta n Is ra e l E cu a d o r E q u a toria l Pa n a m a Ghana G u a tem a la M orroc o C ô te d 'Ivoire K en y a Q a ta r D om in ica n H on d u ra s M old ova É m ira ts M a ced on ia Jord a n S ri L a n k a C on g o B olivia Cub a G eorg ia N ica ra g u a Tu n is ia Ta n za n ia Ira n S in g a p ore Uru g u a y A rm en ia E l S a lva d o r C a m b od ia C os ta R ic a P. N . G u in e a C y p ru s S en eg a l Ug a n d a M a u ritiu s B a n g la d es h S y ria Ja m a ic a M on g olia La o P D R C a m eroo n Sud a n N ep a l Z a m b ia Rwand a C a p e V erd e Pa ra g u a y K y rg y zta n L ib eria M a li M a u rita n ia S w a zila n d Ta jik is ta n A lb a n ia M a d a g a s ca r M o za m b iq u e Guyana Fiji E th iop ia Bahama s M a lta t C O 2e Annual Emissions Reduction of CO2e 400,000,000 350,000,000 300,000,000 250,000,000 200,000,000 150,000,000 100,000,000 49,173,551 Number of Brazilian Projects by Sectoral Scope Landfill 8.0% Fossil fuel switch 10.0% Swine 16.6% Renewable energy 50.2% Renew able energy Sw ine Fossil fuel sw itch Landfill Energy efficiency Waste Industrial process N2O Reforestation Fugitive emissions Emission Reductions on the First Crediting Period by Sectoral Scope in Brazil Renewable energy 37.5% Landfill 21.6% Swine 10.0% N2O 11.5% Renewable energy Landfill N2O Swine Fossil fuel switch Energy efficiency Reforestation Industrial process Waste Fugitive emissions Installed Capacity (MW) of the project activities approved by the CIMGC Total: 3641 MW PROINFA: 447 MW Hydro 38% Hydro SHP 22% Bagasse SHP Wind Biomass Biogas Bagasse 30% Number of CDM Project Activities in Brazil by Country Parties Japan 5% Netherlands 7% UK 15% Unilateral 65% Unilateral UK Netherlands Japan Spain Germany Sw eden Sw itzerland France Canada Portugal CER Demand • Most of Western European countries increase their emissions above Kyoto targets – Exceptions: Germany and United Kingdom • Most of Eastern European countries have Kyoto targets greater than current emissions (“hot air”) – Exception: Slovenia – Politically difficult to use “hot air” • Preference to Joint Implementation projects • Emissions may increase up to 2012 if additional measures are not undertaken Difference between emissions in 2007 and the Kyoto Protocol targets in 2012 and reduction of emissions from CDM projects under BASIC (- 1,410,290 t CO2 eq) Including United States of Am erica (-21,047 t CO2 eq) United States o f A merica 1389243 Canada 188683 Japan 188604 Turkey 156663 Spain 109082 Italy 69516 A ustralia 37939 Slo vakia 28225 P o rtugal 23495 A ustria 19185 Ireland 13706 New Zealand 13637 Denmark 12724 Finland 7342 No rway 4935 Luxembo urg 3433 Switzerland 2697 Iceland 777 Liechtenstein 32 Russian Federatio n -1130601 M o naco -1 Cro atia -1841 Greece -1880 Netherlands -2863 B elgium -3498 So uth A frica -7110 Sweden -9626 Latvia -11754 Esto nia -17194 Germany -17506 Lithuania -20723 Czech Republic -27885 France -28153 Hungary -32530 B elarus -37165 Slo venia -45565 B ulgaria -46216 B razil -49174 Ro mania -103677 P o land -130755 United Kingdo m -136700 India -172925 China -439877 Ukraine -484832 José Miguez Coordenação Geral de Mudanças Globais de Clima Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia Esplanada dos Ministérios – Bloco E – sala 268 Brasília – DF +55 (61) 3317-7923 [email protected]