Policy Paper Series - The University of Sydney
Transcrição
Policy Paper Series - The University of Sydney
CHINA STUDIES CENTRE 悉尼大学中国研究中心 Policy Paper Series PAPER 7 October 2013 Overcoming geographies of scarcity: the water-energy nexus in Inner Mongolia and South Gobi, Mongolia Jesper Svensson Jesper Svensson Preface Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region is a unique area in China, stretching across the northwest to the north east, ranging from the deserts in the Amen region close to Gansu and Xinjiang, and grasslands running from Xilinghaote right up to Ordos. Since intense settlement of the area by Han Chinese which started over a century ago, adding to the number of ethnic native Mongolians, it has been a region whose ecosystem is under enormous stress. Desertification because of inappropriate use of grazing land for farming from the late Qing period onwards means that large swathes of the Autonomous Region are today barren. Those travelling from Beijing north to the border with Mongolia can see the contrast in the different intensity of land use. They cross from a land largely bereft of any kind of vegetation to one which has rich, green pasturage. The plight of Inner Mongolia is exacerbated by the rich mineral and coal deposits it has. These have been exhaustively exploited in recent year. Closeness to the capital Beijing, and then to the great port of Tianjin mean the area Is perfect for supply of the energy hungry economies in North East Asia. This has caused dramatic change socially and economically. Inner Mongolia was an economically undeveloped and impoverished area up until the 1980s. But from the late 1990s in particular onwards it has posted staggering GDP rises, producing a new generation of super-rich, and a boom in the cities the Autonomous Region contains. The crucial issue addressed in Jesper Svensson’s paper is how water figures in all of this. Water is a critical issue for all of China, with cities like Beijing suffering from massive shortages, and water contamination being sufficiently worrying for the State Council to have produced a key document on its management in 2012. For Inner Mongolia, a place with very modest rainfall even in good years, these issues are magnified by the huge use of water resources in mining. As mining activity has shot up, so has diversion of the water into this area, at the cost of local communities. Droughts have increased, and the environment deteriorated, with policy makers trying to 1 Jesper Svensson work out ways of preserving the benefits that coal exploitation brings, but also answering the immense environmental issues that come with it. This paper sets out, with a large amount of new data, where the water challenges are, what the impact of coal extraction has been, and what sort of responses the government needs to make. Inner Mongolia is just one area of China, but the challenges here, while extreme, are repeated throughout the rest of the country as the balance between growth and sustainability is sought for. There is plenty of food for thought here about a problem that is pressing, and will take great policy focus and skill to sort out. And as the conclusion shows, if China cannot solve this issue, then it can grow as rich as it likes in the knowledge it is doing so with the ticking time bomb of environmental backlash. Professor Kerry Brown Executive Director, China Studies Centre, and Professor of Chinese Politics University of Sydney 2 Jesper Svensson Overcoming geographies of scarcity: the water-energy nexus in Inner Mongolia and South Gobi, Mongolia Introduction: At a time when mineral and coal mining has put Mongolia among the world’s fastest growing economies, with 17.3% growth rate in 2011 and 12.3% in 2012 (Kohn: 2013), its abundant supplies of resources are seen as an emerging new source to meet the energy demands of a number of northeast Asian countries (Campi 2013: 1). However, in an increasingly water-stressed country, the long-term risks related to the water-intensive mining economy have largely been ignored. As water becomes scarcer, the water issues are set to become more and more serious constraints for the large-scale development of Southern Mongolia’s coal and mineral deposits in a way that mirrors similar challenges facing dry and coal-rich Inner Mongolia, China. In this light, this paper tries to advance understanding of the water-energy nexus by demonstrating how these resources are coupled in the cases of South Gobi and Inner Mongolia. It argues that an energy policy is more robust for regional adaptation strategies for South Gobi-Inner Mongolia than a water policy due to its transmutability and that water issues will remain localized (Scott et al., 2011; Pasqualetti 2010). Thus, by jointly tapping their abundant wind resources, the South Gobi and Inner Mongolian regions could reap double benefits by reducing CO2 emissions while also saving water. This paper is organized in three sections. The first section will start with explaining China’s geographical resource divide before moving on to explore the water and environmental impacts of coal development in Inner Mongolia. Next, the paper turns attention to the growing water-energy confrontation in Mongolia, particularly in the mining industry of South Gobi. The final section focuses on a discussion of barriers and opportunities for a cross-boundary wind-energy project between South Gobi-Inner Mongolia, which has the potential to reduce water requirements for electricity generation in a region which is short of freshwater but has vast wind resources. 3 Jesper Svensson 4 Jesper Svensson 1. The case of Inner Mongolia: the coal-water (scarcity) nexus In China, coal is king, representing 77% of China’s primary energy production and fueling almost 80% of its electricity (Carnegie 2012: 1). Driven by its high reliance on coal for electricity generation to sustain its juggernaut growth, China became a net coal importer in 2009 and overtook Japan as the world largest coal importer in 2011 (WRI 2012: 12). Considering the depleting coking coal reserves and the importance of coal for China’s industrial processes, such as iron and steel production, Mongolia now plays an increasingly important role as a coal supplier for China. While Indonesia and Australia are the largest coal exporters to China, with over 50% of the market share of imports in 2011 (Alencastro Larios 2013: 81), Mongolia supplies China with 43 % of its coking coal (News.mn: 2011). Yet construction of more coal power bases is expected to meet growing energy demand. According to its 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), the country aims to add 363 coal-fired plants to fuel 16 giant coal-power generation bases, mainly in the provinces of Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Shanxi and Shaanxi with a combined capacity exceeding 557,938 MW (WRI 2012: 5). Discussion about China’s coal has focused on the threat to air quality and its contribution to an increase in CO2 emissions. One critical issue, however, usually escapes attention: coal development is highly water intensive. As of 2008, the water consumption in China was 591 billion m3; 23.7% was for industrial use with more than half of it consumed in the coal mining and preparation, coal-fired power generation and coal chemical industry. While water quantity issues throw up a range of risks in the energy sector, the coal industry also poses a potential threat to the quality of water resources by discharging large quantities of waste water containing pollutants. In 2008, coal mining and washing, and heat and power production accounted for 12% of industrial waste water (Pan et al., 2012: 93). Conversely, to treat, secure and distribute this water demands large amounts of energy. As an energy source that makes large demands on water resources, the uneven distribution of water resources is adding further risks and 5 Jesper Svensson challenges: the Northern China Plain has nearly 35% of China’s population and almost 40 % of its arable land but has to make do with less than 8% of its water resources. To make things worse, roughly 70% of the country’s 15,000 coal mines are located in water-scarce regions and 40% are estimated to have severe water shortages (Chan 2013). This is of particular concern for China’s resource hub Inner Mongolia, which is blessed with 26% of the country’s coal reserves but only 1.6% of its water resources. Moreover, a recent study conducted by Greenpeace and China’s Academy of Sciences has shown that by the end of the 12th Five Year Plan, the coal power bases in Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Ningxia will increase the entire area’s industrial demand for water by 94.1% to 140.8% from 2010 to 2015 (Greenpeace 2012: 2). The water demand from these coal industries will reach at least 9.975 billion m3 in 2015, which is more than a quarter of the water volume that the Yellow River allocates to the 9 provinces in a normal year – 37 billion m3. Thus, meeting the water resources pressure and energy demand in Inner Mongolia is becoming increasingly challenging. In Inner Mongolia, coal power represented 92% of total power production in 2010 (see table 1). As of 2010, 248.9 TWh were produced and 38% of the electricity was exported to other regions in China, mainly to feed the growing electricity needs of the eastern provinces as part of the “Send Western Electricity East Project” 西电东送 (Xi Dian Dong Song). Tabel 1. Water and Energy in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia Total production of Energy Inner Mongolia Ningxia 92 99 248,9 58,7 % Electricity Exported 38 7 Agriculture Water Use as % of Total Water Supply 74 90 5,86 4 % for coal 2010 Electricity Production TWh Yellow River Water allocation (billion m3) Source: China Statistical Yearbook (2010), China Environment Forum (2013) 6 Jesper Svensson However, this interdependence between Inner Mongolia as a source region for electricity export and the eastern coastal provinces as demand centres for energyis different from source and demand links for water. The imbalance of coal resource distribution and consumption has necessitated long-distance electricity transmission systems because it is cheaper than coal transportation via railways, roads and waterways. Thus, a major target for the State Grid Corporation of China is to increase the electricity transmission to coal transportation ratio from 1:20 in 2006 to 1:4 in 2020. This resource-coupling dimension of the water-energy nexus creates what Scott et al. (2011) call “externalization of impacts”. Consumers who benefit from the “emission free” electricity in the east don’t perceive water impacts from power generation that local residents in Inner Mongolia have to bear. At a deeper level, the water and energy linkages are coupled at multiple levels and jurisdictions, especially local and state governments, that often have competing goals (provincial energy gain versus local water quality). This resource coupling of energy development and water quantity and quality can be demonstrated by looking at the case of China’s largest Coal miner, China Shenhua Group. To meet regional energy demand through coal extraction, this state-owned company has, according to Greenpeace, been overexploiting groundwater and discharging high levels of toxic wastewater in Inner Mongolia (Greenpeace 2013). Moreover, China Shenhua Group has been selected as one of the stakeholders to develop Mongolia’s Tavan Tolgoi, one of the world’s largest untapped coking coal deposits located in South Gobi. As demand for electricity on the eastern coastline increases, so too will the volume of water needed for coal mining, preparation, and coal-power generation in Inner Mongolia. There are at least 4 options to meet this water need. First, it could come from the South to North Water Diversion Project 南水北调 工程 (Nanshui beidiao gongcheng), a $62-billion project designed to transfer some 45 billion m3 annually from the south via three routes, and designed to deliver water to the dry Yellow river and meet urban water demand in the Beijing-Tianjin region. Although the project will ease the imbalance between 7 Jesper Svensson supply and demand for water in the Northern China plain, the SNWTP carries significant costs and risks. A fundamental vulnerability is the energy-intensive water delivery, as longer distances for conveying water mean greater energy use and cost. In this case, water pollution may also hamper its planned utility as much energy is needed to treat and move surface water. Apart from the project’s energy intensity, financial costs and environmental impacts, the current engineering supply-side paradigm is vulnerable to a multi-year widespread drought. In mid 2011, Inner Mongolia had a serious drought with 2.33 million people facing water shortages and 660 thousand hectares of farmland providing no harvest (Xin et al., 2012: 447). Given that in 2011 the Yangtze River – which is supposed to transfer water northward along three routes – suffered the worst drought in 50 years, it raises a key question: What if the south and the north of China suffer drought at the same time? There could be a conflict between water and energy needs where the Yangtze delta needs hydroelectricity from its dams while the north needs water to be transferred from the Yangtze River. On the other hand, the receiving areas for water transfer in the Northern China plain are under the semi-humid monsoon climate zone. If the dry period, which has lasted more than 28 years (since 1980) ends and the wet season returns, then there would be little need for water transfer, thereby pushing the price of transferred water up while users look for demand management alternatives. Second, desalination offers a pathway to mitigate the water-energy confrontation. To meet the energy demand and water scarcity in Inner Mongolia, Chinese researchers have proposed a “Bohai Sea Diversion Project”. It aims to drop a pipe into the Bohai Sea to draw seawater into a complex of desalination plants, and then to pump water 1,400 metres uphill for more than 600 kilometres to develop coal in Xilinhot (Schneider 2011). Although desalination remains at present an energy-intensive and expensive solution, it might become a way to address water shortages and rising energy demand if new innovations - such as solar-powered desalination – can make it more cost-effective (Chellaney 2013: 284). 8 Jesper Svensson Third, the water demand could be met by encouraging water-use efficiency through inter-sectoral water allocations. Since 2003 industries in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia have been investing in water-saving irrigation districts in exchange for transferring water to the industrial sector, with compensation based on mutual benefits. Because agriculture uses approximately 70 to 90% of Inner Mongolia and Ningxia’s water, the greater the water savings are in the agriculture sector, the more water will be available be for energy production. Yet reports show that upstream regions of Ningxia and Inner Mongolia exceed the given allocations from the Yellow River Basin Commission annually by exploiting loopholes in the central regulation (Li et al. 2012: 959; Watts 2011). Thus, despite its potential, water-rights trading to meet the water scarcity and energy demand in Inner Mongolia has proven difficult to enforce. Fourth, demand could be met by increasing the use of air-cooling technologies which, compared with water cooled power units, can reduce water use by 60%. In 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission approved 8 coalfired power plants and 5 coal-fired power-heat co-generation plants in Inner Mongolia with a total capacity of 12,220 MW, of which 9,120 MW power generation and 2,500 MW power-heat co-generation plants used air-cooling systems. However, air-cooled power plants only account for 4.25% of the total capacity in China (Pan et al., 2012: 97; Chan 2013). In addition, recyling waste water could also reduce water consumption. Pan et al. (2012) have shown that while the coal mining industry withdraws 1.6 m3 to 3.0 m3 of water and releases 2 to 10 m3 of wastewater to mine 1 tonne of coal, the recycling rate of treated wastewater is only 22 %. Thus, increasing the recycling of waste water in mining holds the key for large water savings. However, air-cooling technologies and recycling waste water would increase the cost of power plant construction and produce higher energy consumption per unit of electricity. This comes as bad news for coal-fired power companies that have suffered significant financial losses in recent years. For instance, the top 5 Chinese power companies lost a total of RMB 15 billion (US$2.4 billion) in their coal- 9 Jesper Svensson power generation business in 2011 due to the challenge of rising coal prices and a fixed electricty price (WRI 2012:6). In addition to these options, a rapid rollout of renewable energy could save water since wind and solar power generation require virtually no water. This will be discussed in section three, after next case-study. 2. The case of South Gobi: water scarcity and energy demand in the mining sector As in China, water and energy are both essential for meeting a broad range of societal goals in Mongolia. While the aggregate per capita water resource in Mongolia is 11,182 m3, the availability of water resources per square kilometre is much lower than the world average, making Mongolia one of 60 countries with limited water resources (UNEP 2011: 8). A striking fact is the country’s “70-30 paradox”: some 76% of surface area has only 36% of all water resources. Indeed, freshwater shortages and the geographically uneven distribution of minerals and water pose great challenges. According to UNDP, one-third of Mongolia’s aimags (provinces) fall “below 600 cubic metres per capita that defines absolute water scarcity”, while the South Gobi aimags, namely Omnogovi (20.3 m3), Dornogovi (85.8 m3 per capita) and Dundgovi (209.6 m3) are home to massive mining projects, including the Oyu Tolgoi and the Tavan Tolgoi (UNDP 2011: 59). It is estimated that the Oyu Tolgoi copper/gold deposit will contribute 25% of Mongolia’s GDP in 2020 (Kjetland 2012). Rapid urbanization and mining, along with climate change and inconsistent water governance, are the major drivers of over-exploitation of water resources, both groundwater and surface water, in several regions. A large proportion of industrial water consumption comes from the mining sector. Based on data from 2005/2006, the total annual water use of Mongolia was 443 million m3, 53% of which was for industrial uses. In general, around 40% of the industrial water is consumed in the extractive mining industry (World Bank 2010: 9). To highlight the challenge for the mining industry, The Global Water Intelligence Group (GWI), a UK-based water 10 Jesper Svensson consultancy, estimates that global mining companies will spend $12bn globally on water infrastructure in 2013, marking a 56% increase from the $7.7bn the industry spent in 2011 (Businessmonitor 2013: 2). Thus, in an era in which Mongolia’s mining industry will consume up to 200,000 m3 per day by 2020 – a 22-fold increase from the 2009 daily demand of 9,000 m3 (China Environment Forum 2013: 2) – the implications of increasing water supply limitations in the dry southern desert provinces of South Gobi are obvious. Shortages of water and energy are set to become major barriers for any further development of the South Gobi’s mining sector and could undermine the country’s economic growth. At a time when water issues are becoming more serious constraints for mining, the rise in Mongolia’s electricity demand is being driven by existing and new mining developments. From 2007 to 2011, electricity consumption increased on an average 6% per year and it is estimated that overall energy demand will grow at around 14% in the future. The Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy of Mongolia forecasts total electricity demand from the major South Gobi mines of around 870MW to 1130MW (Prophecy Coal Corp. 2012), a huge proportion given Mongolia’s installed capacity of power generation is 922MW, produced almost entirely by coal-fired thermo power plants. At the same time, the South Gobi region is not connected to the central energy system. The electric power system consists of four independent electric power systems: the Central Energy System (CES), Western Energy System (WES), Eastern Energy System (EES) and Altai-Uliastai energy system. The CES supplies energy to the capital and 13 aimags in central Mongolia, covering over 90% of the country’s total energy consumption (Energy Charter Secretariat 2011: 31). However, it can’t meet the daily energy demand during peak times, and electricity has to be imported from Russia. On the other hand, the diesel-dependency on Russia carries risks and costs given that Russia can raise duties on fuel exports, thereby pushing up the operating cost for using diesel to generate power in the mining sector which has short operational season before winter. 11 Jesper Svensson Although the Mongolian Government plans to increase the share of renewable energy to between 20% and 25% of its total energy consumption by 2020, coal will continue to dominate Mongolia’s system with new coal fired power plants – Tavan Tolgoi (600MW), TPP5 (450MW), Chandgana Power Plant (600MW) – planned to be built to meet energy demand (Prophecycoal 2012). In this light, water and energy are so interlinked that the Director General of Energy Policy Department at the Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy admitted last year that adequate water availability for electric power generation in Tavan Tolgoi could be a problem and the whole water issue needed careful re-evaluation (Iderkhangai 2012). This raises a key question: with a deficit of over 600MW by 2016 projected by the IMF, will Mongolia have enough water in the long run to simultaneously build thirsty coal-fired power plants and mine coal, copper, gold and other natural resources that also use large volumes of water and produce wastewater? Indeed, in an era where energy demand is increasing rapidly but water resources are already constrained, the central dilemma might actually be how to meet the water needs for an extractive mining industry and an energy sector that are both driven by coal-fired power plants. Until the 600MW power plant in Tavan Tolgoi begins operation, the Oyu Tolgoi – the second biggest player in the South Gobi – takes its electricity from coal-fired power plants in Inner Mongolia, China. As demonstrated in the Inner Mongolian case, resources are managed at multiple levels. In this regard, the linkages between Inner Mongolia as a source region and Oyu Tolgoi in South Gobi as a demand site for energy are different from source and demand links for water, which remain localized. The coupling of energy and water demonstrates how energy demand for Oyu Tolgoi is met through coalgenerated electricity in Inner Mongolia with associated environmmental impacts. Moreover, the scale of China’s presence and the geographic proximity between the southern part of Mongolia and Inner Mongolia raises the question of cross-border environmental problems. Alicia Campi, a wellknow researcher on Mongolia, argues that any large scale development of Tavan Tolgoi and other coal mines in South Gobi would seriously affect the flow of water to Inner Mongolia (China Environment Forum 2013: 6). But this 12 Jesper Svensson is dismissed by a leading water scholar at Chinese Academy of Sciences who argues that water demand for coal development is mainly concentrated in the Yellow River basin in the south but not in the closed basin in the north of Inner Mongolia. Moreover, apart from the upper reaches of the Wulawulun River – the source area of Heilongjiang province – where water consumption in Mongolia reduces the flow to downstream China, the water use in Mongolia has little impact on water resources in China.1 Thus, water is a local/provincial resource within South Gobi and Inner Mongolia, but the externalized water impacts of energy development across boundaries makes energy the key to addressing those local impacts. In the mining sector, the Government of Mongolia has raised prices for underground water to control the use of water by industry, but this had an unexpected outcome of producing active initiatives and projects for the increased use of surface water. To meet future water demand in the mining sector of South Gobi, the government and the World Bank are studying options to channel water from the Orkhon River to the Gobi via an aqueduct (Kohn and Humber 2013). However, according to an official working for the Ministry of Construction and Urban Development, the project has faced growing concern from the northern provinces, which oppose the project.2 3. Can wind energy break the vicious circle of energy and water into a virtuous one? As presented from the case studies above, water and energy are coupled at multiple levels. Following this reasoning, the energy demand from the eastern coastline of China drives the development of coal in Inner Mongolia at the expense of local communities, which are impacted by water quality and quantity as well as air pollution. This spatial dislocation of energy and water sources and demands is also highlighted by the fact that mines such as Oyu Tolgoi in South Gobi, Mongolia receive electricity from Inner Mongolia. While 1 Correspondence with a water scholar at Chinese Academy of Sciences, July 10, 2013. 2 Correspondence with official at Ministry of Construction and Urban Development, July 24, 2013. 13 Jesper Svensson the case of Inner Mongolia demonstrates the confrontation between water scarcity and energy demand, the dilemma facing the extractive mining industry in South Gobi is two-fold. On the one hand, water availability for mining is under pressure at the same time as energy demand is increasing. On the other hand, as demand for electricity in South Gobi increases, so too will the volume of water needed for coal-fired power plants that are being planned to power the mining sector and large parts of Mongolia. At the same time, both the Chinese and the Mongolian governments have constructed or proposed large water-transfer projects to address the problems in the north and south respectively. However, moving surface water over great distances demands energy, which undermines local renewable energy options and water/energy conservation measures. To break the vicious circle of energy demand and water scarcity, Mongolia and China need to find ways to reduce their reliance on coal-dominated power generation systems. In an attempt to move away from its coal dependence, the Chinese government aims to increase the wind power generation capacity to 200 GW by 2020, 50 GW of which will be installed in Inner Mongolia.3 Even if this only represents 5% of China’s total energy need, Xin Li et al. (2012) have calculated that the deployment of 200 GW wind energy would contribute a 23% reduction in carbon intensity and could save 800 million m3 of water. For Inner Mongolia, the installation of 50 GW of wind turbines would save up to 210 million m3. Besides having one fifth of the country’s total wind power potential, Inner Mongolia has one of the largest solar power potentials in China (Li et al., 2013: 7). Mongolia, like Inner Mongolia, is blessed with vast wind and solar energy resources but its market is tiny and heavily subsidized to be able to overcome the challenges of scale to tap them efficiently (Borgford-Parnell 2011: 2767). According to a presentation done by the ADB, Mongolia contains a maximum installed capacity of 1113 GW of wind energy resources, but only 0.0002% of the total wind energy potential has been installed. As a result, the Government 3 In 2012, the installed capacity was 62.36 GW of total 1000 GW wind potential. (Li, Junfeng2012: 2). 14 Jesper Svensson aims to increase the wind power generation capacity to 200 MW by 2020 (ADB 2012). In addition, the imbalanced geographic distribution of wind resources and consumption is a challenge: South Gobi is endowed with plenty of wind resources while the demand centres are hundreds of kilometeres away in the north. Thus, 200 MW is not enough to create the economies of scale for electricity transmission south to north. However, if South Gobi and Inner Mongolia could jointly integrate their wind resources with Inner Mongolia’s power transmission system, then Mongolia could move away from its reliance on coal while exporting renewable energy to China. In this light, deployment of wind energy can be regarded as carbon and water saving solutions for their existing coal-dominated power generation systems. Indeed, it is important that Mongolia, in seeking to address the energy challenges of the mining industry in South Gobi, does not exacerbate challenges related to water. For Mongolia, the greater use of wind energy over coal will bring significant savings in water consumed per megawatt-hour of electricity produced. Achieving water savings in energy production ultimately means more water available for agriculture, mining and urban households. Conclusion Water issues are of great importance to Inner Mongolia’s coal supply chain and for the extractive mineral industries in South Gobi, Mongolia. At a time when the ratio of electricity transmission to coal transportation will increase from 1:20 in 2006 to 1:4 in 2020, there will be implications for the water availability and the water quality in Inner Mongolia. This paper reveals that the source region and demand sites for energy are different from source and demand links for water. Urban energy consumers on the eastern seaboard of China that use coal-generated electricity exported from Inner Mongolia don’t internalize the water impacts of generation or coal development. Thus, the regional demand for energy drives the coal development in Inner Mongolia at the expense of local water quality and quantity. Similarly, the extractive mineral industry in South Gobi is facing its own difficulties with water scarcity 15 Jesper Svensson and has a large and rising energy footprint. There is a risk that freshwater supply stress is increasing as more coal-fired power plants are built to meet the rising energy demand driven by mining industries. Despite the geographic proximity of Inner Mongolia and South Gobi, Mongolia, water will remain a domestic concern and offers less scope for regional adaptation than energy policy. Finally, because electricity is transmitted between Inner Mongolia and South Gobi, combining the vast wind energy resources holds promise for water savings and reducing CO2 emissions if costs and and institutional barriers are to be overcome. 16 Jesper Svensson References ADB. “ADB Quantum Leap in Wind”, Presentation at Ulaanbaatar, May 2012, available at http://k.lenz.name/LB/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Session-3.1Jitendra-Shah.pdf Alencastro Larios, Nadya. “Northeast Asia Energy Security Network”, Industrial Internship Report, 2013. Kohn, Michael. “Mongolia’s first-quarter exports decline 7.8%, Imports drop 17.3%”, Bloomberg, April 11, 2013, www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-11/mongolia-firstquarter-exports-decline-7-8-imports-drop-17-3-.html Borgford-Parnell, Nathan. “Synergies of scale: A vision of Mongolia and China’s common energy future”, Energy Policy 39 (2011): 2764–2771. Business Monitor International. “Water scarcity the Next Big Challenge for Miners”, Industry Trend Analysis, 2013, pp. 1–4 Campi, Alicia. “The New Great Game in Northeast Asia: Potential Impact of Energy Mineral Development in Mongolia on China, Russia, Japan and Korea”, Asia-Pacific Policy Papers Series 2013, No.15, pp. 1–39, available at www.reischauercenter.org/en/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/RC-Monograph-2013Campi_The-New-Great-Game-in-Northeast-Asia.pdf Carnegie. “Understanding China’s rising coal imports”, Policy Outlook, 2012, pp. 1– 16, available at http://carnegieendowment.org/files/china_coal.pdf Chan, Wai-Shin. “The water challenge facing China’s coal and power sector is inescapable”, Chinadialogue, 8 July, 2013, www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/6187-The-water-challenge-facingChina-s-coal-and-power-sector-is-inescapable Chellaney, Brahma. Water, Peace and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis, (Rowman & Littlefield Publishers: Plymouth, 2013). China Environment Forum. “Electricity on the move: China’s network of transmission lines Moving Coal power and Hydropower Eastward”, 2013, available at http://wilsoncenter.org/wilsonweekly/chinas-west-east-electricity-transferproject.html 17 Jesper Svensson China Environment Forum. “Minegolia Part 1: China and Mongolia’s Mining Boom”, Briefing Paper 2013, pp. 1–11, available at www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/minegolia-part-i-china-and-mongolia’s-miningboom Energy Charter Secretariat. “Mongolia: In-depth review of energy efficiency policies and programmes”, 2011,available at www.encharter.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Publications/Mongolia_EE_2011_ENG. pdf Greenpeace. “How China’s Shenhua group is plundering water supplies”, 23 July 2013, www.greenpeace.org/international/en/news/Blogs/makingwaves/how-chinasshenhua-group-is-plundering-water-/blog/46032/ Greenpeace. “Thirsty Coal: a water crisis exacerbated by China’s new mega coal power bases”, Briefing Paper 2012, pp 1–11, available at www.greenpeace.org/eastasia/Global/eastasia/publications/reports/climateenergy/2012/Greenpeace%20Thirsty%20Coal%20Report.pdf Iderkhangai, G.. “Energy Ministry prefers Tavan tolgoi as site for power plant”, Mongolian Mining Journal, 19 March 2012 http://en.mongolianminingjournal.com/content/19084.shtml Kjetland, Ragnhild. “Mongolia the latest mining frontier, but not for the risk averse”, Copper Investing News, 16 November, 2012, http://copperinvestingnews.com/13079-mongolia-mining-risk-oyu-tolgoi-turquoisehill-rio-tinto-kincora-copper.html Kohn, Michael and Yuriy Humber. “Rio Tinto’s Oyu Tolgoi copper mine raises water worries in Mongolia’s Gobi desert”, Financial Post, 21 June, 2013 http://business.financialpost.com/2013/06/21/rio-tintos-oyu-tolgoi-copper-mineraises-water-worries-in-mongolias-gobi-desert/ Li, Junfeng. “China Wind Energy Outlook”, 2012, pp. 1–85, available at www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/China-Outlook-2012-EN.pdfLi, Wei, Melanie Beresford and Goujun Song. “Market failure or government failure? A study of China’s water abstraction policies”, The China Quarterly, 208 (2011): 951–969 18 Jesper Svensson Li, Xin et al. “Challenges faced when energy meets water: water implications of power generation in the northern regions of China”, IIOA conference paper 2013, pp. 1–31, available at http://www.iioa.org/files/conference-3/844.pdf Li, Xin et al. “Energy-water nexus of wind power in China: The balancing act between CO2 emissions and water consumption”, Energy Policy 45 (2012): 440–448 News.mn. “Mongolia becomes leading coal exporter to China”, 27 October, 2011 http://english.news.mn/content/84684.shtml Pan, Lingying et al. “A supply chain based assessment of water issues in the coal industry in China”, Energy Policy 48 (2012): 93–102 Pasqualetti et al. “Energy and water resources scarcity: critical infrastructure for growth and economic development in Arizona and Sonora”, Natural Resources Journal 50, no. 3 (2010): 645–682 Prophecy Coal Corp. “Crucial Coal: Powering Mongolia’s future”, 19 March 2012, www.prophecycoal.com/crucial-coal-powering-mongolias-future/ Schneider, Keith. “Bohai sea pipeline, fossil fuel extraction and China’s dry north”, Chinadialogue, 3 June, 2011, www.chinadialogue.net/article/show/single/en/4332Pipeline-pressures-in-north-China Scott et al. “Policy and institutional dimensions of the water-energy nexus”, Energy Policy 39 (2011): 6622–6630 UNDP. “From Vulnerability to Sustainability, Environment and Human Development”, Mongolia Human Development Report 2011, pp. 1-129, available at http://hdr.undp.org/en/reports/national/asiathepacific/mongolia/NHDR_Mongoli a_EN_2011_2.pdf UNEP. “Urban Water Vulnerability to Climate Change in Mongolia”, Executive summary 2011, pp.1–22, available at http://geodata.rrcap.unep.org/all_reports/mongolia/WATER_BOOK_Executive_su mmary.pdf Watts, Jonathan. “Provincial tug-of-war waters down China’s Yellow river success story”, The Guardian, 28 June, 2011, www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/jun/28/water-yellow-river-china 19 Jesper Svensson World Bank. “Mongolia: Groundwater Assessment of the Southern Gobi Region”, 2010, available at http://siteresources.worldbank.org/MONGOLIAEXTN/Resources/Water_Resources _Report.pdf WRI (World Resources Institute). “Global Coal Risk Assessment: Data Analysis and Market Research”, Working Paper, 2012, pp. 1–76, available at http://pdf.wri.org/global_coal_risk_assessment.pdf 20