Building mining - Sensitivity study of recycling potentials until 2050

Transcrição

Building Mining –
Sensitivity Study of Recycling
Potentials until 2050
Prof. Dipl.-Ing. Clemens Deilmann
Leibniz-Institut für ökologische
Raumentwicklung (IÖR) Dresden e.V.
IÖR Dresden:
Karin Gruhler, Norbert Krauß, Regine Ortlepp, Georg Schiller
intecus GmbH:
Jan Reichenbach, Jeanette Baumann,Jörg Wagner
Wuppertalinstitut: Sören Steger, Helmut Schütz, Stefan Bringezu
Recycling – Introductory remarks
• (1) Waste hierarchy: =
Concept of steps of decomposition of products. Decomposition needs
effort (cost, energy, time,), the benefit needs to be carefully weighed up
step by step.
• (2) Products of built environment (e.g. access ramps /roof slaps etc.) we
need in equal measure for the functioning of the whole (the “built
Germany”).
• (3) “High Grade” of building elements has nothing to do whether RC Use
is also “High Grade”. The place of use doesn’t honour the gravel ! (1 !!)
Stocks and Flows of built environment in Germany
TOP DOWN
Input in Mio. t/a
2010
Buildings
490
Infrastructure
RC 80
TOP DOWN
BOTTOM UP
Input in Mio. t/a
2010
2010
Buildings
490
Infrastructure
RC 80
113+
7RC =
120
220
150
RC80
BOTTOM UP
Output Mio.t/a
2010
40
TOP DOWN
BOTTOM UP
Input in Mio. t/a
2010
2010
Buildings
490
113+
7RC =
120
220
Stock (-)
Residential ~ 10 billion
BOTTOM UP
Output Mio.t/a
2010
40
Non-Residential ~ 10 billion
Accumulation
Ground engineering, Landscape Architecture,
Bagatelle Buildings, Banquette,
Riverbeds/Rapids
Accumulation
Infrastructure
RC 80
150
RC80
Technical Infrastructure
Kein RC: REA-Gips, Hüttensande, Schlacke oder Flugasche im
Bau
Kein RC: Rückführung von Produktionsscherben
RC: Rezyklate aus anderen Branchen als der Baubranche im
Bauprodukt
RC: zum Hochbau zugehöriger Tiefbau auf netto Bauland
 Buildings Activities in Germany until 2050
 Materialflow of Building Construction Activities
 Recycling Quota for 16 Product Groups
 Recycling Potential of Construction Activities 2050
Construction Activity-Assumptions
Basis: 12. Coordinated Populationforecast (StaBu 2009). Variante
1-W1 ("medium“ population, Migration +100.000 per year).
Number of Households determines Dwelling Unit Construction
(Increase until 2025 thereafter falling)
Estimation: Dw-Increase (ca. 4,2 Mio. Dw 2011-2030 , ca. 2,8
Mio. Dw 2031-2050 und Dw-Loss (ca. 2,6 Mio. Dw 2011-2030, ca.
4,7 Mio. Dw 2031-2050)
Non-Residential-Buildings: New construction, demolition of
Buildings divided by Population…..and for 2030 / 2050 multiplied
by population forecast.
Problem: Population -14 %, Stock + 25 % from 3,0 to 3,7 Billion
m² floorspace = +40% increase in „floorspace-use“ per
Inhabitant, incl. Vacancies… ?? Therfore Increase-Limitation
30% (less new construction, higher demolition-rate per
Inhabitant).
New Construction of Buildings
Construction of New Buildings
100.000
Mehrfamilienhäuser
multi unit residential
Ein-/Zweifamilienhäuser
1-2 family home
Sonstige
Nichtwohngebäude
other non-residential
Sonst.
nichtlandw.
Betriebsgeb.
other agrarian
buildings
Hotels/Gaststätten
hotels, restaurants
Handels-/Lagergebäude
trade and storage
Fabrik-/Werkstattgebäude
factory, workshop
Landw.
Betriebsgebäude
farms, barns
etc.
Büro-/Verwaltungsgebäude
office and administration
homes of ederly, students, half way house
huckepack
80.000
70.000
60.000
50.000
40.000
30.000
20.000
10.000
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0
1995
Use Space (net) in 1000 m²
90.000
Demolition of Buildings
Abgang ganzer
Gebäude
Demolition
of Buildings
Anstaltsgebäude
multi unit residential
Büro-/Verwaltungsgebäude
1-2 family home
Landw.
Betriebsgebäude
other non-residential
Fabrik-/Werkstattgebäude
other agrarian buildings
Handels-/Lagergebäude
hotels, restaurants
Hotels/Gaststätten
trade and storage
Sonst. nichtlandw. Betriebsgeb.
factory, workshop
Sonstige Nichtwohngebäude
farms, barns etc.
Ein-/Zweifamilienhäuser
office and administration
Mehrfamilienhäuser
90
80
70
60
homes of ederly, students, half way house
50
40
30
20
10
2050
2045
2040
2035
2030
2025
2020
2015
2010
2005
2000
0
1995
Nutz-/Wohnfläche
m² m²
Use Space
(net) inin Mio.
1000
100
Material-Flow Modell
Building
Geometries
Statistic of Buildings
activity Stock, input/ output
Building-Database
Materials
Wohn-/Nutzfläche im m² (Statistik)
Output
Input
Bestand
2050
Output
Input
Bestand
Output
Input
Synthetische Gebäudetypen
Building-Mix
(Anteile)
2030
Wohngebäude
Ein-/Zweifamilienhaus bis 2000
Ein-/Zweifamilienhaus 2001 - 2010
Mehrfamilienhaus bis 1918
Mehrfamilienhaus 1919 - 1948
Versiegelte Flächen
Nichtwohngebäude
Anstaltsgebäude bis 2010
Büro-/Verwaltungsgebäude bis 2010
Landwirtsch. Betriebsgebäude bis 2010
Fabrik-/Werkstattgebäude bis 2010
Handels-/Lagergebäude bis 2010
Hotels/Gaststätten bis 2010
Sonst. Nichtwohngebäude bis 2010
Anstaltsgebäude 2011 - 2050
Büro-/Verwaltungsgebäude 2011 - 2050
Landwirtsch. Betriebsgebäude 2011 - 2050
Fabrik-/Werkstattgebäude 2011 - 2050
Handels-/Lagergebäude 2011 - 2050
Hotels/Gaststätten 2011 - 2050
Sonst. Nichtwohngebäude 2011 - 2050
Versiegelte Flächen
Buildingproduct
.
Abbildung 5: Materialfluss-Modellierung – schematische Darstellung (Quelle: Eigene Darstellung)
Material
Modernisation
Characteristics
Neubau
Calculation-Matrix
Building Material
Bestand
Synthetic Buildingtypes
11 RB, 14 NRB, 4 sealed surfaces
Neubau
Element“layors“
Materialkennwerte in t pro m² Wohn-/Nutzfläche
Bestand
Buildingelement
Bestand
2010
Building Activities not part
of statistics
Material-Flow Modell - Assumptions
Existing Building Stock 2010, New Construction & Demolition
modeled by 11 RB-, 14 NRB-, 4 sealedSurfaces
Construction Waste (disfitt, damaged elements etc.)
Average 3 % of new construction input, but 8 % in case of
insulation, roofing layors; 15 % gypsumboard, wooden boards
New Units by Modification, Extentions, new usefunction
8 % Dw (14% NRB Units) year 2010 (Statistic)
Loss of Units by modifications, unification, change of use
4 % Dw (6% NRB Units) Year 2010 (Statistic)
of which 1/3 demolition, 2/3 changes / unifications
Material-Flow Modell - Assumptions
Loss beyond statistics (demolition, changes, modifications) for
2010 + 100% of registered activities of which 15% demolition/
85% modifications, NRB Units use dependent up to 50/50
Fillings/land modulation of new construction sites
(gravel/Sand ca. 1/3, 2/3 earth)
Sealed surfaces (access pavings, parking, terasses etc.)
4 open spacetypes along 7 urban structural types.
Modernisation Residential Buildings SAN-Rate: 2,5 % per year.
Material-In/Output : 5,5 % und 5 %
Non Residential Buildings SAN-Rate: RB-similar Types 2 %, others
0,5 % per year. Material-In/Output : 5,5 % und 5 % RB-similar
Types 2,5 % und 3 % others.
2010 Stock, Input, Output, RC
Gesamt
Total
Baustoffe/Produkte
Building Materials / Products
Beton
Concrete
Ziegel
Brick
Kalksandstein
Limestone
Porenbeton
Foam Concrete
Sonst.
Mineralisch
Bodenbeläge)
Other
Mineral(inkl.
Products
Gipskarton
Gypsum Borard
Sonst.
Gipsprodukte
Other
Gypsum
Bau-/Konstruktionsholz
Construction Wood
Sonst.
Holz
(inkl. Bodenbeläge)
Other
woodboards,
floors
Flachglas
Glas
Mineral.
Dämmst.
Glas/Stone-woolInsulation
synthetic insulation
Kunststoff-Dämmst.
PVC Windows / Doors
Kunstst.-Fenst./Türen
Other Kunststoffe
plastics (inkl.
(floor,
cabel..)
Sonstige
Beläge
& Leitungen)
Metals
wires)
Metalle
(inkl.(incl.
Leitungen)
Others
Coatings,..)
Sonst.
Stoffe(carpets,
(inkl. Leitungen
& Beläge)
Gesamt
Bestand
Stock
Input
input
2010
2010
Output
output
Mio. t
Mio. t
Mio. t
6388,564
1874,387
1231,589
178,758
3484,658
9,820
159,003
295,754
39,450
334,236
65,223
83,023
82,911
68,333
898,428
62,133
15256,272
41,708
7,905
5,252
1,500
42,055
0,168
3,244
2,710
1,017
2,518
0,550
0,874
0,591
1,012
9,206
0,757
121,066
12,228
3,489
2,055
0,300
14,850
0,032
0,680
1,130
0,908
1,171
0,235
0,343
0,209
0,354
3,059
0,650
41,693
RC Amount
RC
in Mio. t
0,167
0,000
0,000
0,000
2,523
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,041
0,378
0,148
0,087
0,077
0,010
4,603
0,000
8,036
2010 Stock, Input, Output
Material Flow 2010
Output
Input
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Mio. t
Beton
Concrete
Kalksandstein
Lime stone
Sonst.
Mineralisch (inkl. Bodenbeläge)
Other mineral
Sonst.
Gipsprodukte
Other gypsum
Sonst.
Holz (inkl.
Other wood
(floorBodenbeläge)
cover)
Mineral insulation
Mineral.
Dämmst.
Plastic doors/windows
Metals (wires)
Metalle
(inkl. Leitungen)
Ziegel
Bricks
Porenbeton
Foam concrete
Gipskarton
Gypsum board
Construction wood
Flachglas
Glas
Kunststoff-Dämmst.
Synthetic insulation
Sonstige
Kunststoffe
Beläge
other plastics
(floors,(inkl.
pipes,
wires)& Leitungen)
Sonst.
(inkl.
Leitungen & Beläge)
others Stoffe
(carpets,
coating)
 Material-Flow Modell for Germany (UBA –Project)
Building Product
Recycling-Material Admixture in different
Products for Construction (in %)
2010
2030
2050
Concrete
0,4
6,0
12,0
Bricks
0,0
10,0
15,0
Lime stone
0,0
5,0
5,0
Foam concrete
0,0
2,0
5,0
Other minerals
6,0
21,0
21,0
Gypsum boards
0,0
30,0
50,0
Other gypsum
0,0
0,0
5,0
Construction wood
0,0
0,0
0,0
Wood boards
4,0
10,0
20,0
15,0
25,0
35,0
Glas
Mineral. insulation, incl. ca. 40 %
RockWool with RC 0, 15, 20
Synthetic insulation material
27,0
42,0
56,0
10,0
19,0
19,0
13,0
25,0
50,0
1,0
5,0
10,0
50,0
60,0
70,0
0,0
2,0
5,0
Other plastics/PVC-sheets/carpets
Metals (not part of investigation)
Others
 Material-Flow Modell for Germany (UBA–Project)
Sensitivity-Analysis
BAU, BAU-RC, NA, NA-RC
BAU :
Construction-volume according Building-activities 2030-2050
RC-Quota 2010 unchanged until 2050
BAU-RC: as above, but optimistic expert setting of RC-Quota
NA :
as BAU, but woodconstruction SFH from 15 % to 30 %
MURBs from 2% to 15 %, concrete efficiency up 10 %
Thermal Insulationmaterial + 30 %
SFH construction -50% accordingly more MURB Dw-Units
NA-RC:
as above, but optimistic expert setting of RC-Quota
BAU-RC Output-/Input-Flow 2010-2050
Buildings
Materialflüsse
in Mio.
Tonnen
- BAU-RC
Material
flow in Million
Tonnes
– BAU_RC
-150
-100
Output
-50
0
50
Output 2010
Input 2010
Output 2030
Input 2030
Output 2050
Input 2050
Mineralisches
Sonstiges
Input
100
150
Recycling-Quoten in Mio. Tonnen
0
2
4
6
BAU/NA-RC
2010
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
6,6 %
BAU-RC
2030
NA-RC
2030
BAU-RC
2050
NA-RC
2050
Concrete
Beton
Lime stone
Kalksandstein
Other mineral
Sonst.
Mineralisch (inkl. Bodenbeläge)
Sonst.
Gipsprodukte
Other gypsum
Sonst.
Holz (inkl.
Other wood
(floor Bodenbeläge)
cover)
Mineral.
Dämmst.
Mineral insulation
Metalle
(inkl. Leitungen)
Metals (wires)
RC-Quote in % am Ges.-Hochbau-Materialfluss
16,2 %
16,4 %
20,6 %
21,0 %
Ziegel
Bricks
Porenbeton
Foam concrete
Gipskarton
Gypsum board
Construction wood
Flachglas
Glas
Kunststoff-Dämmst.
Synthetic insulation
Sonstige
Kunststoffe
(inkl. Beläge
other plastics
(floors, pipes,
wires) & Leitungen)
Sonst.
(inkl.
Leitungen & Beläge)
others Stoffe
(carpets,
coating)
RC
in Mio.t
in %
of
input
Buildings
Conclusion 1
Material flow is dominated by demografic change. After 2030 the input until
2050 will decrease by 45 % (= -55 Mio. t), Output + 150 % (= + 60 Mio. t)
in comparison with todays flows.
Rawmaterial-Savings by use of Secondary Rawmaterials (RC) in building
construction might increase from 7 % to – under optimistic framework
conditions – 21 % 2050 .
In absolute fugures the RC-Quota of 16 % and ca. 19 Mio. t recycling
Material use will peak in 2030. Until 2050 the absolute figure will decrease
due to slow down in building activities to ca. 13 Mio. t.
Conclusion 2
More resource conscious construction, design and building-types can save
6 % -11 % (- 6,5 Mio. t). Avoided construction waste might theoretically
reach: 5-3 Mio. t
95 % of material flow are mineral aggregates. Big differences between
Top-down and Model-calculation regarding minerals aggregates.
Metals, Glas are „selfrunners“. Plastic/synthetic Materials do have good
economic chances for recycling (nevertheless at present to much
incineration for power generation). Wood is forced into energetic use due
to existing legislation and funding.
Trading of mineral aggregates is difficult, because it is bound to short
transport radiuses. Therefore Recycling strategies for mineral products
need to be regionalized

Building mining - Sensitivity study of recycling potentials until 2050

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