Potentiale und Bedarfsstruktur für solarthermische

Potentiale und Bedarfsstruktur für
solarthermische Anwendungen in Thailand
- Rahmenbedingungen und Status quo
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christoph Menke; JGSEE/Bangkok & FH Trier
Informationsworkshop: Solarthermie in Industrie und Gewerbe in
Thailand: Potentiale für deutsche Unternehmen
Dienstag, 05. März 2013, GIZ-Repräsentanz - Berlin
www.exportinitiative.bmwi.de
Table of Content – Development of the Solar Thermal Market in Thailand
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Solar Thermal Market Development
Sectors for Solar Thermal Systems
Potential for Solar Thermal Systems in Thailand
Actual Market Growth
Economics of Solar Thermal Systems
Thai Subsidy Program
Market Participants
Future of Solar Thermal Systems in Thailand
Conclusions
INTRODUCTION
Thai Solar Market Development: 1996 - 2008
Before 1996
Beginning of
2005
Beginning of
2006
Beginning of
2007
Beginning of
2008
50,000 m2
15,000 m2
21,800 m2
30,300 m2
38,300 m2
 Total installed area until 2008 :
 Total operating area until 2008:
73,300m2
38,300m2
 Difference due to “out of operation” from older systems
Source Prasitpianchai, S. 2011. Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process – Final Report.
Bangkok, Deutsche Gesellschaft für international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
INTRODUCTION: MARKET IS SMALL BUT GROWING…!
Thai Solar Thermal Market Development: 2008 - 2012
With Subsidy
Without Subsidy
2008
4,000 m2
7,000 m2
2009
3,000 m2
7,600 m2
2010
10,000 m2
8,200 m2
2011
10,000 m2
8,900 m2
2012
13,000 m2
9,660 m2
Remark: Data for subsidies systems from DEDE; Data for “without subsidy” are
estimates based on an annual growth of 8,5% from 2008 base.
ACTUAL MARKET SHARE IN DIFFERENT SECTORS
Market Share in 2007
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Market Share in 2011
Residential
Commercial
5%
10%
50%
Industrial
14%
39%
40%
42%
Remark: The industrial sector has grown from 10% to 39%!
Others
Temperature Ranges for different Food Industrial Processes
Source: Kalogiron, S.: The potential of solar energy in food-industry
process heat applications, Nicosia, Cyprus.
MARKET POTENTIAL – ESTIMATION : 1,5 – 3 Mio. m²
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Potential of 1,500,000 m2 was originally based on 1200 kWh/m²/a solar yield
 A more realistic solar yield of 800 kWh/m²/a results in 2,2 Mio. m²
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Estimates according to DIW boiler statistics in industrial companies leads by
a 15% market penetration to 3 Mio. m²
Enough to start to realize it!
Sources: The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE), International Institution for Energy Conservation (IIEC), Institute for Solar
Energy Systems (Fraunhofer ISE). 2007. FINAL REPORT Market Development for Solar Thermal Applications in Thailand (SolTherm Thailand). Thailand
And Prasitpianchai, S. 2011. Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process – Final Report, Bangkok, Deutsche Gesellschaft für international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ)
GmbH
SHARE AMONG THE SECTORS IN THAILAND - MARKET POTENTIAL
Sector
Collecor Area [m2]
Potential of Solar Hot Water
[ktoe]
Residential
62.8
912,955
Commercial
3.7
53,789
87.4
1,270,578
153.9
2,237,322
Industrial
Total
Industrial
57%
Residential
41%
Commercial
2%
The industrial sector
has the biggest potential,
if there is enough
Space near the factories!
Residential sector is difficult, as
no hot water pipes are installed in
the houses!
Hospitals, Hotels are worth to
consider, if the roof area is
available!
ACTUAL MARKET GROWTH
Market Growth from 2008 until 2013: 20%/a
Subsidy
No Subsidy
Accumulative Installation
Total
140.000
24.000
22.000
20.000
18.000
16.000
14.000
2
m 12.000
10.000
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0
120.000
100.000
m2
80.000
60.000
40.000
20.000
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011
2012
0
2008
2009
2010
Year
2011
2012
ACTUAL MARKET GROWTH
Investment in regards to the complete system
Assumption:
15000 – 30000 Baht/m²
1 Euro = 40 Baht
Market Volume:
300 -700 Mio Baht
7,5 Mio – 17,5 Mio €/a
ACTUAL MARKET GROWTH
Investment in regards to the collectors only
Assumption:
10500 – 18500 Baht/m²
260 – 460 €/m²
For collector only
1 Euro = 40 Baht
6,25 – 11, 25 Mio. €/a
ECONOMICS OF SOLAR THERMAL HEATING SYSTEMS
Heat cost from conventional fuels, Date: Dec 2011
Now: 2,97 Baht/kWh
Now: 2,76 Baht/kWh
Source: Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process, Sirikul Prasitpianchai; GIZ Bangkok, 2012
CONVENTIONAL FUEL SOURCES AND PAYBACK PERIODS
Electricity: 4 a – 7 a simple pay back
Assumptions:
Electr.3,9 Baht/kWh
(= 9,75 c€/kWh)
Energy Price Increase: 8%/a
Solar yield: 800 kWh/m²/a
Spec. Costs of System:
15 000 - 30 000 Baht/m²
375 - 750 €/m²
No subsidies assumed!
CONVENTIONAL FUEL SOURCES AND PAYBACK PERIODS
Heavy Fuel Oil (1500): 5 – 9 a simple pay back
Assumptions:
2,76 Baht/kWh
(= 6,9 c€/kWh)
Annual Energy Price: 8%/a
Solar yield: 800 kWh/m²/a
Spec. Costs of System:
15 000 - 30 000 Baht/m²
375 - 750 €/m²
No subsidies assumed!
CONVENTIONAL FUEL SOURCES AND PAYBACK PERIODS
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG): 5 – 8,5 years
LPG price jumped from 18 Baht/kg (Oct. 2011) to 30 Baht/kg (May 2012)
Assumptions:
2,97 Baht/kWh
(= 7,42 c€/kWh)
Growth: 8%/a
Solar yield: 800 kWh/m²/a
Spec. Costs of System:
15 000 - 30 000 Baht/m²
375 - 750 €/m²
No subsidies assumed!
THAI SOLAR THERMAL SUBSIDY PROGRAM BY DEDE
 2008 – 2011: Based on a fixed plan, developed in 2007.
Targets/
Year in
m2/Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2007-2011
Originally
Planned
-
5,000
7,500
10,000
17,500
40,000
Actual
plan
-
5,000
3,000
10,000
10,000
28,000
Realized
-
3,973
2,910
10,000
10,000
27,000
 2012: 13,000 m2 have been installed under the following conditions:
•
•
•
4,500 Baht/m2 for closed-loop systems, which solar yield above 800 kWh/m2/a
3,500 Baht/m2 for open-loop systems, which solar yield above 800 kWh/m2/a
3,000 Baht/m2 for closed- or open loop systems, which solar yield between 500 800 kWh/m2 /a
Example: Installation in DEDE Subsidy Program in 2010
Source; DEDE and Prasitpianchai, S. 2011. Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process – Final Report.
Bangkok, Deutsche Gesellschaft für international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
DEDE: Government subsidy program for 2013
Maximum of 3,460 Thai Baht (THB)/m2 depending on 4 main components:
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Solar collector: 1,357- 2,007 THB/m2 with solar yield above 500 kWh/m2 per year
1. Storage tank: 657 THB/m2 for stainless steel tank
2. Hot water piping: 69-277 THB/m2 for copper stainless PPR-PN25 or PPR-PN20
3. Hot water pump, control system, data recording system, etc: 519 THB/m2
4. Collector area calculated based on aperture area (flat plate) or gross area (vacuum tube)
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Requirements for System: Hybrid system (solar collector and waste heat from air
conditioner, boiler, etc)
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Requirements for installation: 40 m2 minimum per project; Payback within 5 years;
New projects, No defined maximum size per project
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Program is limited to 25,000 m2 in 2013
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More Information: www.dede.go.th
Thailand: DEDE Subsidy Effects on the Solar Market
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Simple payback period: In combining solar heat system with waste heat
recovery, the pay back period can be reduced by 30%
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Lower prices of collector and system: higher market volume as a result
from the subsidy has increased market competition
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Average sale price of large scale solar system: 21,500 baht/m2 (512
euro/m2) in 2008. The sale price of system was reduced to 16,000 baht/m2
(380 euro/m2) in 2010 (Source: DEDE surveys).
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Market size and sector: Subsidy for large scale solar system has increased
the market share in industrial sector as well as double the market
volume.
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The market share has changed from domestic and commercial sector
dominated to industrial sector.
Source: Prasitpianchai, S. 2011. Solar Heat in Agro Industrial Process – Final Report.
Bangkok, Deutsche Gesellschaft für international Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH
LOCAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS - 1
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TSUS Group: Focus on industrial customers, they claim to have an internal
market share of 10 % for domestic and 20 % for commercial customers.
 They assemble their own flat plate collectors.
 They are located in the north of Thailand (Chang Mai)
 They also have their main business there.
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Ravotek: Unfortunately they were not keen to share any data
 But they are assembling their own vacuum tube collectors
 They are only company, which does that in Thailand.
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Vispack: Vispack seems to have its focus on commercial customers, they
claim that their market share for commercial systems is 90 %.
 Vispack purchases their components from company Chromagen in Isreal.
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These companies have a market share of each 10 – 20 % of total market.
LOCAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS - 2
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One other company, which seems to play a significant role in the market:
“Water Systems & Service Ltd., Partnership”.
 This company does not like to share any information.
 According to information from GIZ Thailand, we assume that this company have
a market share of 30 – 40 %.
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Others are Praneetech
 Praneetech is selling modules from Solarhart, imported from Australia.
 This company does want to not share any information.
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Technology Green Solutions Co., Ltd., Mr: F Roecker, Khon Khaen
 Assembles own flat plate collectors with German TINOX fins
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Best guess 15 - 20 companies active in Solar Thermal business in Thail.
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Beside local companies, there are some international companies active
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Problem: No accurate Data exists who is installing how many solar systems.
=> It would be worth to establish more accurate market data!
Future of Solar Thermal Systems in Thailand - 1
Options and Chances:

DEDE/Thai Government has a subsidy program and supports solar thermal
development!
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Energy subsidies are gradually removed, see LPG, so solar has a chance!
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Industrial customers, especially international manufacturing companies are
recognizing the value of solar heat
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Own field monitoring of larger solar systems resulted in solar yields of 800 –
1000 kWh/m²/a, which is quite good.
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More and more good quality systems are installed and industrial customers
recognize the value of quality slowly
Future of Solar Thermal Systems in Thailand - 2
Challenges:
 Low quality systems in the past have given solar thermal systems a bad
reputation!
 Electricity tariffs are still subsidized through subsidized natural gas in
power plants
 No active Association exists, that can raise the visibility of good solar
thermal systems
 DEDE has supported 40 000 m² in 50 - 70 large solar thermal systems in
the last 5 years, but monitoring of their performance/ solar yield, and/or
quality does not happen yet
 Own field monitoring resulted in solar yields of 800 – 1000 kWh/m²/a,
which is quite good
 Pay Back period is still high if high-tech solutions are installed and no
subsidies can be used!
Conclusions
Good framework, but market still needs to be
developed further through good, reliable, but
simple solar thermal systems!
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Market is not transparent and you need to have a local partner to get
around….
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Thai Government does support the solar thermal market, but to get the
subsidy is not easy without the right local partners.
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German technology needs to be adopted to reduce the costs, but reliable
enough to produce good solar yield reliable under Thai environmental
conditions, which are quite challenging (water quality, humidity, rain,
temperature stress, etc.)
Thank you for your kind attention!
Prof. Dr.-Ing. Christoph Menke
Hochschule Trier / Trier University of Applied Sciences
FB: Versorgungstechnik
Energietechnik / Energy Technology
D 54293 Trier
E-mail: [email protected]
The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment (JGSEE)
King Mongkut's University of Technology Thonburi
Bangkok 10140, THAILAND
http://www.jgsee.kmutt.ac.th