Summer campaign 2011 - Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre

Transcrição

Summer campaigns at MUC
Caroline Forster, Arnold Tafferner
DLR – Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA)
Wetter&Fliegen Final Colloquium, MAC MUC, 15 March 2012
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Vortrag > Autor > Dokumentname > Datum
Summer campaigns 2010 und 2011 at MUC Airport
Cb-Nowcasting
Nowcasting-Site
(DFS, DWD,
DLR, weitere)
POLDIRAD
WIIS 2010
(DFS, LH HCC,
FMG)
Model Forecasts
2010
Cb Warnings
MetFROG 2011
(DFS)
Ninjo
(DLR, DWD)
Flight Tracks
2010
Wake Vortex Separation
2010
WxFUSION
(DLR)
Campaign-Site
(public)
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Cb-Nowcasting
POLDIRAD
Model Forecasts
2010
Cb Warnings
Flight Tracks
2010
2010
Campaign 2010: DLR, Project Wetter & Fliegen
Nowcasting-Site
(DFS, DWD,
DLR, weitere)
WIIS-Display 2010
(DFS, LH HCC,
FMG)
MetFROG 2011
(DFS)
Ninjo
(DLR, DWD)
WxFUSION
(DLR)
Campaign-Site
(public)
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Campaign 2011: DFS, Project iPort
Cb-Nowcasting
POLDIRAD
Model Forecasts
2010
Cb Warnings
Flight Tracks
2010
2010
Campaign 2010: DLR, Project Wetter & Fliegen
Nowcasting-Site
(DFS, DWD,
DLR, weitere)
WIIS-Display 2010
(DFS, LH HCC,
FMG)
MetFROG 2011
(DFS)
Ninjo
(DLR, DWD)
WxFUSION
(DLR)
Campaign-Site
(public)
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Cb-TRAM and Rad-TRAM in WIIS in 2010
(Weather Image Information System)
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Cb-TRAM and Rad-TRAM in WIIS in 2010
(Weather Image Information System)
Users: DFS Center MUC, FMG, LH HCC
The products were presented in displays
the users are familiar with
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Cb-TRAM and Rad-TRAM in WIIS
LH HCC at MUC Airport 22.7.2010
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Summer campaign 2011: Rad-TRAM in DFS MetFROG
Rad-TRAM EuRadCom
in the test system in 2011
In Summer 2011
tested by
DFS Tower MUC
from March 2012
Cb-TRAM and Rad-TRAM
in the operational system
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Summer campaign 2011: Products on the Nowcasting-Seite
Cb-TRAM 19.7.2011 16:15 UTC
Rad-TRAM 19.7.2012 18:15 UTC
Rad-TRAM 19.7.2012 16:15 UTC
Rad-TRAM 19.7.2012 19:45 UTC
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Summer campaign 2011: POLDIRAD products
19.7.2012 16:31 UTC
19.7.2012 16:27 UTC
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Summer campaign 2011 DLR thunderstorm warnings
Von: Forster, Caroline
Gesendet: Dienstag, 19. Juli 2011 20:35
An: Tafferner, Arnold; '[email protected]'; 'evd@=cc.munich-airport.de'; '[email protected]'; '[email protected]'; 'Pete
Betreff: ### Sommerkampagne 2011: Gewitterwarnung für 19. Juli 2011, 18:35 UTC ###
--- DLR Oberpfaffenhofen,
19.07.2011, Gewitterwarnung um 18:35 UTC---
Einzelne Gewitterzellen haben sich zu einem größeren Gewitterkomplex vereint. Dieser befindet sich momentan auf der
Höhe des Ammersees und zieht in nord-östliche Richtung. Eine weitere Gewitterzelle befindet sich am Alpenrand südlich von MUC
und zieht nordwärts (siehe Anhang).
Zur Erläuterung: Gewitterzellen sind schwarz umrandet (Bereich mit kräftigem Niederschlag), die Verlagerung nach
60 Minuten ist markiert mit einer dünnen grauen Linie. Blitze sind mit blauen Kreuzen markiert.
Diejenigen unter Ihnen, die im Rahmen der Sommerkampagne 2011 Zugang zu DLR Nowcasting Produkten
bekommen haben, bitten wir einen Blick auf unsere Produkte zu werfen und ggf. Feedback an
[email protected] und [email protected] zu geben.
Gewitterwarnungen werden vom DLR ausgegeben während der Sommerkampagne 2011 zum Nowcasting von Gewittern.
Die Kampagne wurde u.a. ermöglicht durch die Unterstützung der DFS (Herr Schwanke) im Projekt iPort
Viele Grüße
Caroline Forster
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Feedback Peter Roth, DFS Tower MUC:
 The thunderstorm warnings and the display of the
thunderstorm products provided the same picture of the
weather situation to all users
 The thunderstorm warnings were used as additional
information for the optimisation of the operations.
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Evaluation of the User-Feedback
In 2010 und 2011 questionnaire with the questions:
• Are the thunderstorm forecasts correct (e.g. extrapolated cells,
moving direction) ?
• Is the way of displaying the products appropriate (e.g. clear,
readable, free of interpretation) ?
• Is the thunderstorm product helpful (e.g. for the planning and for the
co-ordination of the operations) ?
20 persons participated:
8 questionnaires were returned, 18 emails, numerous personal
comments from supervisors at DFS Tower and Center MUC, FMG and
LH HCC operation managers
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• The display is clear and intuitive
• The display of the future development is very useful
• 5 minutes updates have the advantage that rapidly developing
situations can easier and earlier be assessed than with 15 minutes
updates
• The nowcasting up to one hour is accurate enough to enable
reasonable planning (e.g. the ordering of overtime, or the estimation
of how long the airport will be affected by a thunderstorm)
• The early and precise display of the products had a positive effect
on the planning (Feedback Peter Roth, DFS)
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• The display is clear and intuitive
• The display of the future development is very useful
• 5 minutes updates have the advantage that rapidly developing
situations can easier and earlier be assessed than with 15 minutes
updates
• The nowcasting up to one hour is accurate enough to enable
reasonable planning (e.g. the ordering of overtime, or the estimation
of how long the airport will be affected by a thunderstorm)
• The early and precise display of the products had a positive effect
on the planning (Feedback Peter Roth, DFS)
Suggestions:
• Output of cloud top height
• Forecasts up to 2 hours desired
•
Display of the products in the cockpit
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Thunderstorms on 24.8.2010: Cb cell passes MUC close by
black contours:
areas > 37 dBZ
grey contours:
30 and 60 min nowcasts
black lines:
tracks of the cells
blue crosses:
lightning data (LINET)
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Thunderstorms on 24.8.2010: Cb cell passes MUC close by
black contours:
areas > 37 dBZ
grey contours:
30 and 60 min nowcasts
Different users have different requirements black lines:
tracks of the cells
FMG: wrong forecast because the cell did not
MUC
bluehit
crosses:
lightning data (LINET)
as forecast one hour before
DFS: good forecast as there were severe obstructions for
the arrival and departure procedures
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Thunderstorms on 21.7.2011: Cb cells close to the threshold
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Thunderstorms on 21.7.2011: Cb cells close to the threshold
Continuity of observations and forecasts
DFS: cells appearing and disappearing from one time step
to the other are confusing for the user
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Quantitative Evaluation
Pixel-based (perfect match)
Object-based (overlap only)
POD = hits / (hits + misses)
FAR = false alarms / (hits + false alarms)
POD: probability of detection, FAR: false alarm ratio
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Quantitative Evaluation for Rad-TRAM over 39 thunderstorm days in 2011
pixel-based
15 min.
30 min.
45 min.
60 min.
POD / FAR
0.65 / 0.36
0.47 / 0.53
0.34 / 0.65
0.27 / 0.73
POD STD / FAR STD
0.06 / 0.03
0.04 / 0.05
0.03 / 0.05
0.03 / 0.06
15 min.
30 min.
45 min.
60 min.
POD / FAR
0.74 / 0.25
0.65 / 0.35
0.56 /0.43
0.48 / 0.52
POD STD / FAR STD
0.06 / 0.02
0.05 / 0.03
0.05 / 0.04
0.04 / 0.04
object-based
object-based for
nowcast objects only
POD / FAR
15 min.
30 min.
45 min.
60 min.
0.98 / 0.01
0.95 / 0.03
0.89 / 0.09
0.75 / 0.23
POD STD / FAR STD
0.06 / 0.004
0.06 / 0.007
0.06 / 0.01
0.05 / 0.03
POD: probability of detection, FAR: false alarm ratio, STD: standard deviation
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Conclusions
The DLR products Cb-TRAM and Rad-TRAM were presented in real
time to the users at MUC (DFS Center and Tower MUC, FMG, LH
HCC) in displays they are familiar with
The user feedback on the DLR products was very positive
The DLR thunderstorm warnings were very helpful for the
optimisation of the operations
The DLR products are appropriate to provide all users the same
picture of the weather situation
They help to improve the safety and efficiency of air traffic
The DFS asked for a further summer campaign 2012 where the DLR
products shall be provided to users both at the ground and in the air
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Summer campaign 2011 - Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre

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