The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals
Transcrição
The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals
The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals Draft Working Paper prepared by the Renewable Resources and the Sustainable Development Goals Forum Global Soil Forum Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies e.V. (IASS) Table of Content 1 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................. 3 2 The Sustainable Development Goals and biomass production: A reality check. ............. 5 2.1 3 The demand for food, feed, fuel and materials, as implied by the SDGs ..................................5 2.1.1 Biomass production for food and feed purposes .....................................................................5 2.1.2 Biomass production for fuel purposes .........................................................................................7 2.1.3 Biomass production for material purposes................................................................................8 2.2 Growing Demand, Finite Supply? Availability of land for biomass production over time . ............................................................................................................................................................................. 10 2.3 Data and model limitations...................................................................................................................... 14 Implications of increased production and consumption of biomass ................................ 15 3.1 Social implications of an increased production of biomass for non-food, non-feed purposes......................................................................................................................................................................... 16 3.2 Economic risks and opportunities associated with an increase in biomass production for non-food, non-feed purposes ......................................................................................................................... 20 3.3 Ecological implications of an increased production of biomass for non-food, non-feed purposes......................................................................................................................................................................... 22 4 Beyond silo-thinking towards a nexus perspective: Conclusions and further research needs.................................................................................................................................................................. 24 References ....................................................................................................................................................... 28 The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 2 The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 1 Introduction The United Nations Conference on sustainable development (Rio+20), which took place in 2012, launched a process to develop a set of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Member states agreed that the SDGs would build upon the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and form part of the Post-2015 development agenda. Going beyond the MDGs, the SDGs are envisioned to be universal. They will incorporate the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, social and environmental) and their inter-linkages, while accounting for national circumstances (UN 2012). To progress with the development, an Open Working Group (OWG) was formed to negotiate the SDGs, with the involvement of a broad range of stakeholders. After meeting for thirteen formal sessions, the OWG released an outcome document on 19 July 2014 with 17 potential SDGs and 169 accompanying targets, covering areas such as poverty, food security, gender equality, water, energy, climate change, industrial development and global partnerships. The SDGs will be further negotiated during the year 2015 and are expected to be adopted by the UN General Assembly in September 2015. This paper highlights the role of biomass in the SDGs. Biomass is most often based on plant materials that can be used for food, feed, material or fuel purposes (see also Box 1). In 2005 approximately thirteen billion tonnes of plant-based biomass were harvested per year, whereby biomass for food and feed account for about 82 percent, biomass for fuel for about 11 percent and biomass for material purposes for 7 percent (Wirsenius 2007, p. 1-2). Even though biomass is primarily used as food and feed, it is increasingly demanded for non-food and non-feed purposes. In face of dwindling fossil fuel reserves, fluctuating prices and the need to cut CO 2 emissions, biomass increasingly contributes to energy supply (IEA and OECD 2013). As an energy source, biomass is primarily used directly, e.g. as firewood for cooking and heating, or in modern combustion plants. It can also be converted into biofuels. In Germany, for example, in 2014, approximately 13 percent of the total arable land was cultivated with crops used for energy purposes (FNR 2014). In addition, biomass plays an important role in a bio-based industrial development, which is gaining more importance in industrialised countries, where chemical and pharmaceutical industries are gradually relying on biomass for material purposes. In Germany, for example, 1.8 percent of arable land is cultivated for industrial use (FNR 2014). Biomass is a renewable, yet limited resource. If not cultivated and governed appropriately, the production and consumption of biomass can aggravate challenges associated with resource scarcities, soil degradation, biodiversity loss and climate change. For example, the production of biomass for other purposes than food and feed can lead to competition over arable land and other natural resources, which, in turn, can endanger food security. In addition, biomass production can induce land use changes, which can have social, economic and environmental consequences as well as increase carbon emissions. The necessity to cultivate more land to serve the different demands for biomass might imply moving agricultural production into areas, for example grasslands, savannahs and wetlands, that may not be suitable for agricultural production, a biodiversity hotspot, or secure the livelihoods of indigenous populations. An intensified use of land resources may also influence water quality and availability and might worsen the global carbon and nitrogen biogeochemical cycles. Producing and consuming biomass sustainably is therefore essential. Many of the proposed Sustainable Development Goals rely on biomass in order to achieve them. The current set of SDGs, however, does not reflect the sustainable production and consumption of biomass in a comprehensive way. Biomass production is implicit in a number of goals, for example food security (Goal 2), energy (Goal 7), sustainable production and consumption (Goal 12) and the use of terrestrial ecosystems (Goal 15). Yet, the complexities and The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 3 trade-offs associated with an increasing demand for biomass for food, feed, fuel and material purposes and the potential implications for sustainable development, in all its dimensions, are not appropriately considered. The negotiations of the SDGs offer a unique opportunity to raise awareness for these complex and interdependent issues and to anchor the opportunities and challenges of sustainably produced and consumed biomass in the post-2015 development agenda. The aim of this paper is to shed light on the role of biomass production in the proposed Sustainable Development Goals. The paper shows that the current proposal is not sustainable, because future biomass demand for food, feed, fuel and material purposes, as implied by the proposed SDGs, cannot be sustainably met. This has social, economic and environmental implications, which the paper discusses. Those implications may - if not appropriately addressed - lead to conflicts. In unveiling these implications the paper aims to assist policy-makers who will be negotiating the Sustainable Development Goals and will implement them in their economies. Different analyses of the current proposed set of the SDGs have been made. They focus on specific topics related to biomass like, for example, food security (Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation 2014; Biovision and Millennium Institute 2014), forests (IIED 2014) or climate (CAN 2014). However, there is a need to look at biomass production across its four dimensions of use – food, feed, fuel, materials –, as they are interconnected and can be in competition with each other. This paper aims to take such an encompassing view. Basis of the analysis is an integrated approach, which attempts to systematically analyse the all dimensions of biomass and its implications. It also incorporates the influence of external factors (e.g. trade, investment, climate change) and highlights the need for a sustainable management and governance of the natural resource base. The paper proceeds as follows: Section 2 discusses the projected demand for the four different types of biomass, as implied by the proposed set of SDGs, and contrasts it with existing projections for land availability in order to show that projected demand and supply of biomass may not match. It also discusses the challenges associated with the available data. Section 3 considers the potential social, environmental and economic implications this may have and potential conflicts that may evolve. Focus of the discussions is on the global scale. It is, however, acknowledged that the implications of biomass production and consumption are context specific and may vary by biomass type. Section 4, elaborates on key features of governance and possible next steps towards the operationalization of the SDGs in general, and sustainable biomass regimes in particular. Box 1: Defining biomass: Biomass is a complex term that may mean different things to different readers. In this paper we define biomass as land-based organic materials that can be used for food, feed, material or fuel purposes. These include crop materials (incl. crop residues and waste), wood (incl. wood residues and waste), animal waste and by-products (incl. manure). We also discuss post-consumption and post-processing materials (incl. food waste and residues from industrial production). The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 4 2 The Sustainable Development Goals and biomass production: A reality check. 2.1 The demand for food, feed, fuel and materials, as implied by the SDGs This section considers how much more biomass will have to be produced to meet the different targets implied by the current set of Sustainable Development Goals. A differentiation is made between production for (i) food and feed, (ii) energy and (iii) material purposes. Data limitations will be discussed in section 2.3. 2.1.1 Biomass production for food and feed purposes Food security is a main priority in the sustainable development goals and the post-2015 development agenda. Goal 2 is aimed at ending hunger, achieving food security and improved nutrition and promoting sustainable agriculture. The challenges posed by Goal 2 are enormous: i) achieving food security, in all its dimensions, for a growing population with changing nutritional preferences, ii) ending malnutrition, iii) doubling agricultural productivity and incomes of small-scale food producers, iv) ensuring sustainable food systems, and v) maintaining genetic diversity of seeds and domesticated animals (UN 2014, p. 8). Most of these challenges will have to be met by 570 the million farms in the world, of which 72 percent are estimated to be operated by farmers with less than one hectare (FAO 2014a, p. 2). How much more will have to be produced to feed a growing world population sufficiently in the future? Answers to this question vary, depending on the model assumptions used for projections, the base year, the modelling framework and the projection period. Tilman et al. (2011, p. 20261), for example, estimate that the global demand for crops will increase by 100 to 110 percent. The projections of the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), which are most often quoted, estimate that global agricultural production would need to increase by 70 percent (23 percent in developed countries and nearly 100 percent in developing countries) over the period from 2005/07 to 2050 in order to feed the growing world population sufficiently. Crop production will need to increase by 1.1 percent per annum. An additional one billion tonnes of cereals and 212 million tonnes of meat would need to be produced annually by 2050 (Bruinsma 2009, p. 5). Global population will not only grow in size, but per capita incomes in most developing nations are expected to grow in line with economic growth. As a consequence the demand for agricultural products is also expected to change: away from cereal staple crops to more protein rich food like meat and dairy. The Agrimonde Scenario Analysis projects that these changes could be greater in developing than in developed countries, particularly in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa (Paillard et al. 2014, p. 65). An increase in meat production means that biomass would increasingly be produced for feed purposes. For example, according to the FAO, 80 percent of the additional 480 million tonnes of maize produced annually by 2050 would be for animal feed (Bruinsma 2009, p. 6). The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2014-2023 projects that an additional 58 million tonnes of meat will be consumed by 2023, of which 80% will occur in developing countries. The demand for feed will increase accordingly, and the OECD-FAO Outlook projects that 160 million tonnes of additional feed will be demanded by 2023 (OECD-FAO 2014, p. 32). Bailey et al. (2014, p. 5) project that the demand for meat (76 percent) and dairy products (65 percent) will grow faster than that for cereals (40 percent) from 2005-2007 to 2050. The increase in biomass for feed purposes will depend not only on the volume of meat demanded, but also on the type of meat. As Wirsenius (2007, p. 3) states ruminant (e.g. beef) meat “requires 10 to 20 times more land and biomass per unit produced than pig and poultry meat and milk, and even relatively small changes in its consumption level have significant effects on the requirement of agricultural land, not only of grassland, but also of cropland”. The The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 5 composition of meat demand varies largely by region, driven by cultures and traditions as well as income levels (OECD-FAO 2014, p. 181) How will the additional food and feed demand be met? The conclusion that more food and feed will have to be produced to meet world demand for food is made by all of the studies that project future food and feed demand. Most of the additional increases in production are projected to occur through increasing yields and cropping intensities (i.e. multiple cropping in one season) (Bruinsma 2009, p. 6). Over the past six decades, farmers were able to adapt to the food demand of a rapidly growing world population, which had more than doubled globally and tripled in developing countries over that period (UNPOP 2014). However, this development has not occurred equally: More productivity gains have been observed in Latin America and Asia than in Sub-Saharan Africa. Most of the gains have been due to the development and uptake of modern seed technologies, irrigation, fertilizers as well as modern farming equipment and techniques. The question arises whether advancements at this scale can be reached over the next two decades and at what cost. The FAO projects that 77 percent of the incremental agricultural production to 2050 will be achieved by yield increases and 14 percent by increases in cropping intensities. These figures vary by region: In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region 90 percent of additional agricultural output is expected to be produced by increasing yields. In Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America 69 and 52 percent, respectively, of additional output will come from yield increases (Bruinsma 2009, p. 6). Whether large-scale yield increases are feasible varies largely by region and crop: Mueller et al. (2012, p. 255) find that the potentials to close gaps between observed and attainable yields in maize, wheat and rice are high in Eastern Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, and East and South Asia, while they are lower in North America and Western Europe, where yields are already high. In addition, Grassini et al. (2013, p. 4) find that yields have plateaued in some of the world’s most intensive cereal cropping areas. Therefore, achieving increases in yields will have to go beyond technological solutions to ensure that progress is achieved and shared in a sustainable way. Increases in output will depend on putting the right institutions and structures in place and opting for more sustainable and inclusive forms of agricultural production. This includes, for example, the consideration of agro-ecological practices as well as an improved access to productive resources, services and infrastructure for all farmers. For example, it is estimated that if women had the same access to productive resources as men, they could significantly increase yields on their farms by 20–30 percent; raise total agricultural output in developing countries by 2.5–4 percent (FAO 2011a, p. 5). At the same time, studies highlight the importance of adequate public infrastructure in place (e.g., storage, market access, roads, tenure rights, health services, schools) (IAASTD 2008). To feed a growing population adequately will not only depend on producing more, but also on wasting less. Food supply could be increased by reducing the share of waste in the agricultural value chain. The FAO (2011b, p. v) estimates that 1.3 billion tonnes of food are wasted every year, either through post-harvest losses or food waste at the household level. Percapita food losses per year are estimated to be 280-300 kg in Europe and North America and 120-170 kg in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Per-capita food waste at the consumer level is a greater problem in developed countries (95-115 kg/year) than in developing countries (6-11 kg/year) (FAO, 2011b, ibid). However, not all additional food and feed demand may be met through increases in yield and cropping intensities. The FAO, for example, estimates a net land expansion of 70 million hectares (ha) between 2005-07 and 2050 (Bruinsma 2009, p. 2). However, land expansion projections do not consider the social contexts within which the land is being cultivated, e.g. who The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 6 owns or uses the land that is being expanded for agricultural production. Bruinsma acknowledges that projections on land expansions have to be heavily qualified: “Much of the suitable land not yet in use is concentrated in a few countries in Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa, i.e. not necessarily where it is most needed, and much of the potential land is suitable for growing only a few crops not necessarily the crops for which there is the highest demand. Also much of the land not yet in use suffers from constraints (chemical, physical, endemic diseases, lack of infrastructure, etc.), which cannot easily be overcome (or it is economically not viable to do so). Part of the land is under forests, protected or under urban settlements, and so on” (p. 2). In addition, areas identified for cultivation may be already used by communities already. The FAO models predict that arable land in use will grow by 0.10 percent per year from 2005/07 to 2050, down from 0.3 percent per year from 1961-2005. Most of the expansion in land is expected to occur in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa, because these regions are estimated to have the most land crop production potential, while no expansion is expected in the Middle East and Near Africa Region as well as South Asia (Bruinsma 2009, p. 13). However, as Bruinsma (2009, p. 14) qualifies, much of the available land is distributed over 13 countries, suitable for only a few crops, and may face one or more constraints (e.g. soil quality, irrigation potential). The Global Land Use Assessment of the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP, 2014) reviewed a large amount of studies that project the future of biomass production. The report arrives at the same conclusions that the growing demand for food will not be entirely met by yield increases, and global cropland will, therefore, expand. The report states that land area for agricultural expansion for food and feed production could increase between 71 and 300 million hectares to meet the additional demand for food and feed. Most of this expansion could occur by moving into grasslands, savannahs and forests (UNEP 2014, p. 20). 2.1.2 Biomass production for fuel purposes With rises in the global population as well as per capita income levels, the global demand for energy is expected to increase by 37 percent to 2040 (IEA 2014, p. 1). The Sustainable Development Goal 7 calls for ensuring access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all. In particular target 7.2 states “by 2030, increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix”. This would mean that the demand on biomass for fuel purposes will also rise. In fact, the IEA (2014, p. 3) projects the share of renewables in total energy generation will rises from 21 percent in 2012 to 33 percent in 2040. Biofuel use will almost triple from 2012 to 2040, and it will make up eight percent of total road transport fuel demand by 2040 (ibid). Besides the aim to improve access to modern energy services, many states have committed themselves, for instance under the Kyoto Protocol and the UN Sustainable Energy for All Initiative, to support renewable energies to fight climate change. Renewable energies, like energy derived from biomass, can contribute to lowering CO2 emissions, but they have to be sustainably produced to achieve this aim (IPCC 2011, pp. 18-19). Several industrialised countries implemented policies that aim at increasing the share of renewable energy within their national energy mix. For example, the European Union (EU), in its Renewable Energy Directive (EU Directive 2009/28/EC), aims at a share of 20 percent of its energy to come from renewables by 2020. At the national level, feed-in tariffs, subsidies as well as tax breaks are common. The United States also offers subsidies and credits in order to increase the share of renewables in their national energy mix, e.g. via the Renewable Electricity Production Tax Credit or several incentives at the state level. The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in their global bioenergy supply and demand projections project that global biomass demand for energy purposes could more than double from 53 Exajoules (EJ) per year in 2010 to 108 EJ per year in 2040. There will also The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 7 be a shift in demand: away from traditional uses of biomass, such as wood-burning for cooking and heating in residential homes, to transport fuels and electricity generation. For example, it is expected that 28 percent of the total biomass for energy demanded in 2040 will be for liquid transport fuels, of which 63 percent will be first-generation biofuels, and the remaining 39 percent second-generation biofuels (IRENA 2014, pp. 3-4). Looking at the regional breakdown of the demand for biofuels, the study finds that 30 percent of the demand for biomass for energy purposes would be generated in Asia (driven by China, India and Indonesia), followed by North America (driven by the USA and Mexico), and Latin America (driven by Brazil). The demand of the USA, China, India, Brazil and Indonesia are expected to make up 56 percent of total demand for biomass for energy purposes in 2030 (IRENA 2014, p. 24-27). Energy projections tend to differ, because they depend on assumptions about energy inputs to generate electricity or heat. Caution is, therefore, required when considering different statements about the value of one energy source over the other in the global energy mix (Martinot et al. 2007). How will the additional energy demand be met? Bioenergy can be produced from two sources: (i) crop production and forests, and (ii) residues, like crop residues or wood-based waste. IRENA (2014, p. 27) projects that by 2030 3845 percent of the total biomass supply for energy purposes will be met by crop residues and other waste products, and the remaining will be equally met by crop production and forests. As in the case of food and feed production not all demand for biomass for energy purposes will be met by increasing yields. The UNEP Assessment of Global Land Use summarizes that crop land expansions due to an increase in the use of biofuels could be between 48 and 80 million hectares (UNEP 2014, p. 20). In addition, energy supply could also be increased by using energy more efficiently. Achieving energy efficiency will become more critical, given that the middle class is expected to increase from 1.8 billion people to 3.2 billion by 2020 and 4.9 billion by 2030. The majority of this growth (85%) is projected to occur in Asia (Kharas 2010, p. 27). A rising middle class will demand more and secure access to energy. Target 7.2 addresses energy efficiency by stating “By 2030, double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency”. Reaching an energy efficiency target by 2030 implies cutting waste and increasing research into energy saving practices and technologies. It also means investing more in energy infrastructures. This will be valid for all energy sources, including energy produced from biomass. In view of the unequal global consumption of energy, it will be also be important to reduce consumption in some countries to reduce the impact on soils, land and climate. 2.1.3 Biomass production for material purposes Biomass for material purposes encompasses a number of products. Paper, pulp, rubber and cotton are the most prominent examples. Other examples include solvents and plastics, which can be used by the chemical industry. There are fewer projections on future biomass demand for material purposes compared to demand projections for biomass for food and fuel purposes. Hoogwijk et al. (2003, p. 129), using historical trends, estimate that the total demand for biomass for material purposes could vary between 4335 and 6084 million tonnes in 2050, whereby wood-based products would continue to make up the majority of products, followed by pulp and chemicals. This could be reduced to 820 to 2570 million tonnes if all production residues are effectively used. The authors estimate that the amount of land required to meet the estimated biomass demand for material purposes varies between 503 - 678 million hectares of which the majority (approx. 351 million ha) will be forests (ibid). Forests cover approximately 31 percent of the global land area (FAO 2010, p. xiii). Forests are not only an important source of biomaterials. They also constitute a vital basis for numerous resources (e.g. timber, fuel wood and non-wood forest products) and services (e.g. the conservation of soils, carbon stock, and water and biological diversity). For example, eight The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 8 percent of the global forest area (or 330 million hectares) is dedicated to the protection of soil and water resources (FAO 2010, p. xxi). Deforestation or the degradation of forests implies the loss of these complex resources and services. Deforestation can also imply that large quantities of greenhouse gases are being released into the atmosphere, thereby accelerating problems associated with climate change (UNEP 2014, p. 11). Forests are addressed by Sustainable Development Goal 15 which calls for the protection, restoration and promotion of the sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems, the sustainable management of forests, the combat of desertification, and the halt and reversion of land degradation and biodiversity losses. In particular target 15.2 states “by 2020, promote the implementation of sustainable management of all types of forests, halt deforestation, restore degraded forests and increase afforestation globally” (UN 2014, p. 21). Despite their undisputed importance, the area planted to forests is declining dramatically, though at a smaller rate than a decade ago. The FAO Global Forests Resources Assessment 2010 states that between 1990 to 2000 deforestation and the loss of forests by natural causes has been close to 16 million hectares per year. This number had slightly decreased to 13 million hectares per year between 2000 and 2010 (FAO 2010, p. viii). Between 2000 and 2010, the greatest net forest losses are estimated to have occurred in South America, followed by Africa and Oceania (FAO 2010, p. xvi). In Europe as well as North America, as well as in some transition countries, afforestation resulted in gains in forest area (ibid). This may be driven by an increased interest in wood-based biomass for energy and fuel in industrial countries and will be further discussed in Chapter 3. Finally, forests have become increasingly important as a carbon sink in the context of renewable energy and climate change policies. The report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2014a, p. 31) states that “the most cost-effective [climate change] mitigation options in forestry are afforestation, sustainable forest management and reducing deforestation, with large differences in their relative importance across regions; and in agriculture, cropland management, grazing land management, and restoration of organic soils” This emphasises the importance of sustainable production of forest biomass. How will the additional materials demand be met? As mentioned above, the majority of biomass demand for material purposes is expected to be based on wood-based materials. An increased demand for forest products will increase competition between different forest products, e.g. timber used in construction, the paper industry and wood-based biomass for energy (Raunikar et al. 2010, pp. 55-56). The rising demand for forest-related products is currently met by an increase in harvest rates from primary and secondary forests as well as forest plantations. Apart from rising harvest rates, a growing demand further translates into an expansion of forest areas in some countries (see above). In places where additional land is scarce or where existing forests are ill-managed, the growing demand for forest products, however, also comes at the risk of overexploitation, be it, through the formal forestry sector or by illegal logging and trade (Boucher et al. 2011, p. 65). In the context of climate change mitigation, the emphasis is on increasing the amount of standing forest biomass rather than on increasing harvest rates. In late 2011, the Bonn Challenge was announced by the World Forest Foundation, with a target of restoring 150 million hectares by 2020 (GPFLR 2011). The rising demand for biomass for material purposes would have to be met by using materials more efficiently through recycling, increasing yields and land expansions. The UNEP Global Land Use Assessment, based on an extensive study of projections that consider future trends, states that global crop land expansion through an increased demand for biomaterials will vary from 4 to 115 million hectares (UNEP 2014, p. 20). The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 9 2.2 Growing Demand, Finite Supply? Availability of land for biomass production over time The above section highlighted the rising demand for biomass for food, feed, fuel and material purposes for human development that is also reflected in the SDGs, or better: the targets that rely on them for their achievement. This section discusses the implications for land associated with these (competing) demands. We will review main projections of land availability and the recent history of land use change. Box 2 offers a definition of the different terms used in this section. Where appropriate, the next sections will also address the problems of these definitions that modelling and projections build upon. Box 2: Defining land The Food and Agriculture Organization defines different categories of land: Land area Land area is the total area of the country excluding area under inland water bodies. Land use is the type of activity being carried out on a unit of land. It is recognized that these categories are a mixture of land cover (e.g., forest, grassland, wetlands) and land use (e.g., cropland, settlements) classes Agricultural area: is the sum of areas under arable land, permanent crops and permanent meadows and pastures. o Arable land is the land under temporary agricultural crops, temporary meadows for mowing or pasture, land under market and kitchen gardens and land temporarily fallow (less than five years). The abandoned land resulting from shifting cultivation is not included in this category. o Land under permanent crops is the land cultivated with long-term crops which do not have to be replanted for several years (such as cocoa and coffee); land under trees and shrubs producing flowers, such as roses and jasmine; and nurseries (except those for forest trees, which should be classified under "forest") o Permanent meadows and pastures is the land used permanently (five years or more) to grow herbaceous forage crops, either cultivated or growing wild (wild prairie or grazing land). Forest area is the land spanning more than 0.5 hectares with trees higher than 5 meters and a canopy cover of more than 10 percent, or trees able to reach these thresholds in situ. It does not include land that is predominantly under agricultural or urban land use. Forest is determined both by the presence of trees and the absence of other predominant land uses. Areas under reforestation that have not yet reached but are expected to reach a canopy cover of 10 percent and a tree height of 5 m are included, as are temporarily unstocked areas, resulting from human intervention or natural causes, which are expected to regenerate. Fallow land (temporary) is the cultivated land that is not seeded for one or more growing seasons. The maximum idle period is usually less than five years. Land remaining fallow for two long may acquire characteristics requiring to be reclassified, such as "permanent meadows and pastures" (if used for grazing), "forest or wooded land" (if overgrown with trees), or "other land" (if it becomes wasteland). Source: FAOSTAT (http://faostat3.fao.org/mes/glossary/E) Projections about the future land use for biomass production predominantly rely on two different approaches (Paillard et al. 2008, 73-75): Firstly, they quantify the equilibrium of a particular biomass’ demand and supply. This approach is used by the studies of the International Food Policy Research Institute, the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment or the European Environment Agency. Related land use scenarios of the demand / supply model make assumptions about the future biomass demand and the factors that influence whether this demand can be met by supply, such as yield gains, availability of irrigated land, irrigation The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 10 efficiency, cropping intensity, soil fertility and/or degradation, land conversion (e.g., urbanisation, infrastructure) (ibid). Secondly, an evolutionary approach is applied that projects the future availability of arable land, using estimates about current land use and building on current trends. This approach has been widely applied by the FAO (ibid). All models make assumptions about worldwide and regional agricultural and societal developments to estimate future land use. Moreover, they assume a rising demand for biomass in all four dimensions of its use (see Section 2.1). As with the demand for biomass, projections on the availability of land highly depend on the model assumptions used for projections, the base year, the modelling framework and the projection period. Projections often make assumptions on political decision-making frameworks, land qualities, land availability and complex socio-economic transformations, which may never take place. Nonetheless, it is important to consider the most prominent projections about land take for biomass production, as they have been very influential in political decision making, particular in their framing of regions and countries as biomass providers and/or land abundance. These projections are widely used, and thus – in spite of their hypothetical nature – they do have real world consequences. Several studies tried to assess the quantity and location of land that is available to meet the growing demand for different types of biomass, and they draw highly diverse conclusions (see also Table 1). Some publications see potential for expansion of agricultural production (Bruinsma 2003), while others argue that there is no surplus land (Chamberlin et al. 2014). In practice, “[l]and availability is not a given, but strongly depends on development in demand, crop prizes, agricultural developments, environmental demands, etc.” (Kampman et al. 2008, p. 40), as well as social contexts, namely the question who owns or uses the land; and/or whether the adequate institutions are in place to cultivate it. Moreover, it is important to note that the models neglect land use changes that can have significant environmental and societal implications, in the form of environmental degradation, rising CO2 emissions, threatened indigenous and rural livelihoods, etc. The FAO model – the most widely cited future projection – highlights these problems associated with the modelling land availability in greater detail. It estimates that at present, 11 percent (over 1.5 billion ha.) of the global land surface (13.4 billion ha) are used for crop production. This area represents slightly over a third (36 percent) of the land projected to be to some degree suitable for crop production according to FAO projections (Bruinsma 2009, p. 9). It is estimated that there is some 2.7 billion ha of land with crop production potential which would suggest that there is scope for further expansion of agricultural land (ibid). As mentioned in Section 2.1 FAO projects a net expansion of some 70 million hectares by 2050 for food and feed production, of which 120 million hectares are made available in developing countries, and there is an expected decrease of 50 million hectares in developed economies (Bruinsma 2009, p. 14). The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 11 Table 1: Literature overview on global agricultural and forest land availability Source: Kampman et al. 2008, p. 34 These FAO projections about arable land reserves available for cultivation are highly contested. Chamberlin et al. (2014, p. 62) in their study on land availabilities in Africa, for example, assert that the notion of abundant land reserves in Africa need substantial qualifications. The FAO land estimates do not consider existing land uses of the identified arable land, such as forest cover, human settlements or economic infrastructure that might occupy socalled “uncultivated arable land.” They also do not consider who uses the land, or how that land is governed – a significant aspect of the availability of land. For deriving the land suitability estimates, “it is enough for a piece of land to support a single crop at a minimum yield level for it to be deemed suitable” and thus available for crop production (Bruinsma 2003, Section 4.3). This means that land identified as suitable for cultivation might de facto be only suitable for a single crop, which makes it difficult to understand how much land is actually available for food and / or other forms of biomass production. In addition, abundant land reserves, as projected by the FAO, in regions of Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa are concentrated in only thirteen countries, namely (in order of estimated availability) Brazil, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Angola, Sudan, Argentina, Colombia, Bolivia, Venezuela, Mozambique, Indonesia, Peru, Tanzania, Zambia (Bruinsma 2009, p. 11). Overall, the abstraction from the political economies in these countries and other ecological, and/or socio-economic dynamics that determine land net expansion could make the projections problematic, if not unrealistic. Making this land available for cultivation could mean resettling or dispossessing people and furthering deforestation, with uncertain consequences for the social development and microclimate, respectively. This will be further discussed in Section 3. In addition, as pointed out in Section 2.1., assumed uncultivated arable land that is available for the expansion of agricultural production can face constraints in the form of lacking infrastructure, institutions, ecological fragility or poor soil quality (Binswanger-Mkhize 2009). Treated uncritically, these projections could promote the unsustainable production of biomass. For instance, the projections disregard the competition for land for non-food and nonThe Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 12 feed biomass; land governance issues and actual uses of land, and they may fail to account for other ecological and social dimensions of agricultural land expansion. Moreover, these models do not consider how land cover changes-induced emissions contribute to global warming, or how processes of land ownership concentration and dispossession might result from the competition for land that will likely aggravate ongoing deforestation trends and/or social conflicts over land. Broader trends of human development, such as demographics, urban sprawl, or urbanization are also unaccounted for in these models. In addition, regional and global repercussions of national land use changes remain unaddressed, such as deforestation-induced changes in weather patterns (Millan 2008). While we only discussed the limitations of the FAO modelling of land availability, other models base their projections of land availability on similar assumptions. For example, the Agrimonde projections (Paillard et al. 2014, p. 88) assume that the irrigated land area can be expanded through the building of damns, thereby increasing total availability of arable irrigated land. If not governed and managed sustainably, the potentially harmful character of such largescale build up projects is well-known. In fact, the voluntary private regime of global governance, the Equator Principles, applied by private commercial banks, emerged in response to the continued civil society protests over the social and environmental impacts of such large-scale infrastructure projects (Goetz 2013; Ganson and Wennmann, 2012, pp. 6-7). In sum, this section showed that global land availability is restricted. This may lead to considerable land use changes. Box 3 illustrates at the recent history of land use change and its consequences. Box 3: Recent history of land use competition at the example of cultivated land area Over the past five decades, the global area of so-called cultivated land - namely the arable land and permanent cropland area - has continuously increased, often at the cost of other land uses (e.g. forestry). For example, FAO data on land use shows that the global area of arable land and land under permanent crops increased by 12 percent since 1961. In 2011 it counted for 11 percent of the planet’s land (approximately 1.5 billion hectares) (Paillard et al. 2014, p. 95). FAO data on changes in global land areas between 1995 and 2005 suggest that parallel to increases in the arable land area and land used for permanent crops (by ten million hectares), the global forest area decreased (by 80 million hectares), while area under pastures and meadows remained fairly stable (Kampman et al. 2008, p. 8). There have been considerable regional and national variations in global land trends: The largest share of the above mentioned newly-cultivated land area has been located in two regions, namely Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and Latin America (LAM). FAO data suggest that both SSAs and LAM arable permanent cropland area increased by 34 and 58 percent during 1961 and 2011, respectively (Paillard et al. 2014, p. 95). In comparison, Asia and the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region have moderately expanded their cultivated land area, (23 and 14 percent, respectively) and countries of the former Soviet Union (FSU) as well as OECD countries have even witnessed a decline in their share of cultivated land cover (Paillard et al. 2014, ibid). Increases in cultivated land have often come at the cost of other land uses, primarily forests. For instance, in SSA, the increase in cultivated land area was correlated with deforestation (i.e. a decline in the forest share of the regional land area), with an annual deforestation rate of 0.26 percent between (between 1961 and 2000). In the case of LAM, deforestation too has been a way to expand cultivated land area, however, other factors also seem to play a role, amounting to an effective annual deforestation rate of 0.24 percent (during 1961 and 2000) (Paillard et al. 2014: 97 ff). The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 13 Yet, it is important to stress that when considering land use changes, the importance of political, environmental, social, technological and economic dynamics of land use and land availability also need to be considered.1 For instance, in Former Soviet Union (FSU), a decline of cultivated land area has been observed, less due to competition for land, but as a result of underinvestment and retreat of the state from agricultural production following the dissolution of the Soviet Union post-19891. Another example is the MENA region (especially in Yemen, Iraq and Iran), where deforestation is a wide-spread phenomenon even though these countries expanded their cultivated land areas only moderately. In Iran, for instance, the World Bank suggests that the forest area has decreased from 19.5 million hectares in 1944 to 12.4 million hectares in 2000 (World Bank 2007). A study by the European Union concludes that about 58 million hectares, or 24 percent of the world wide gross deforestation between 1990 and 2010, is not connected to the “conversion of forests for clear consumption purposes or other reported deforestation cause and remain unexplained” (European Commission 2013, p. 19 ff). Overall, however, the conversion of forest land for crop production, livestock farming and logging explains the largest share (55 percent) of worldwide gross deforestation. In this context, it is disconcerting to see that future areas of land expansion for crop production will likely come from forest area which makes up “24% of the global area of land suitable for crop production” (approximately 900 million hectares) (Kampman et al. 2008, p. 35). In addition, natural hazards (approximately 17 percent), urbanisation and infrastructure development (4 percent) are significant drivers of worldwide gross deforestation (European Commission 2013, p. 19 ff). Overall, not only the land area has changed but also the use of this area, reflecting changing demands. In the case of forests, for instance, not only the total amount of forest cover has been shrinking, globally, but the use of the remaining forest cover has increasingly been switched to a productive forest model. Between 2000 and 2005, the area of productive forests rose by 2.5 million hectares to 109 million hectares, primarily in the form of productive forest plantations for wood and fibre production, which accounted for 87 percent of the total forest plantation area (Kampman et al. 2008, p. 16). Overall, however, forest plantations continue to compose minor share of global forest area which made up 30 percent of global land area (est. 2006) (ibid). They amounted to approximately four percent (in 2006) of total forest cover (ibid). To assess the qualitative implications of land use change, it is also important to consider the expansion of arable land from the perspective of land use per commodity type (Kampman et al. 2008, p. 9). During 1990 and 2006, land area used for oil crops (e.g. soybeans, cotton), vegetables and fruits production increased greatly, while the land area used for cereal production and fodder crops decreased (Kampman et al. 2008, p. 9-10). Cereals continue to make up the largest share of commodities produced. However, the trend to use arable land for purposes other than cereal production is not sufficiently reflected in the assumptions underpinning actual projections of food security, which assume that the bulk of global arable land will be used for grain production (Kampman et al. 2008, p. 10). Finally, historical data emphasise the need to account for the global repercussions of regional or national land use choices as well as land use changes that are often studied in view of trading links of regions and countries: “Increasing domestic forest protection without simultaneously decreasing demand for wood necessitates an increase in foreign imports, introducing a negative impact on forest biodiversity elsewhere (…). On an international scale a net gain in forest protection is questionable if local protection shifts logging pressure to natural forests in less privileged areas of the world (…)”(Mayer et al. 2005, p. 359).This has to be kept in mind when weighing the costs and benefits of biomass, which can result in land use change, overuse and net-export of underpinning ecosystems 2.3 Data and model limitations Projections on future demand and supply are useful indicators, but they suffer from a number of shortcomings, as has been illustrated above: For example, the FAO projections on How to feed the world in 2050 do not account for additional biomass demand for energy and material purposes. Moreover, the projections do not model the impacts of climate change, which may influence long-term agricultural production significantly. However, such details are important when discussing the sustainable production of biomass and to address the rising commercial pressure on land and planetary boundaries. When considering land use change and land availabilities, political, economic and social dimensions associated with land use, conversion and availability need to be considered. Figure 1 illustrates the complexities associated with competition for land, which may be driven by underlying and direct causes. If The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 14 not considered appropriately and holistically, they might lead to conflict, which is illustrated in Section 3 below. Figure 1: Drivers and pressures of land competition Source: Smith et al. (2010), p. 2942 3 Implications of increased production and consumption of biomass The section above discussed that the demand for biomass for all its purposes, as implied by the current set of SDGs, implies a crop expansion (low estimate of 123 million hectares) that is unlikely to be met by the projected additional 71 million hectares of arable land available for crop expansion (Bruinsma 2009; UNEP, 2014). The consequence of this may be increased competition over land and other resources. This section discusses possible environmental, social and economic implications of competition over land as a consequence of an increased production of biomass, based on the empirical evidence already available today. The section focuses primarily on the production of biomass for fuel and material purposes, including the possible implications for food production and other types of biomass use. A number of potential conflict areas are identified, and, where available, illustrated with case studies. By focusing on implications from the emerging demand of biomass for fuel and material purposes, we do not omit that other types of biomass production, particularly the production of feed for livestock, are also connected to social, environmental and economic problems. Livestock production is associated with problems very similar to those occurring in the context of biomass for fuel and material purposes, namely land use change, land take, food security, biodiversity loss or greenhouse gas emissions (Steinfeld et al. 2006; Weis, 2013). Before discussing the implications of biomass for fuel and material purposes, it is important to note that its production does not per se trigger the challenges discussed below. If managed and governed appropriately, biomass for fuel and material purposes can be beneficial in many respects. Vice versa, biomass produced under unsustainable conditions can be socially, ecologically and economically detrimental. Along those lines one must also address the question who benefits from biomass production and how opportunities associated to biomass production are determined and distributed in the first place. Whether biomass is produced sustainably is closely linked to the conditions of production, most notably agricultural practices. In many respects, however, these conditions are also determined by social, political and economic processes which take place outside the farm. One The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 15 accordingly has to account for dynamics in the realm of regional, national and international political relations, policy and international finance and trade in order to fully account for the implications of an increased demand of biomass (Duvenage et al. 2013). For example trade and investment determine patterns of all kinds of biomass production and consumption worldwide, be it food, feed, fuel or materials. By driving demand for land based products, trade and investment decisions also represent a major factor pushing for land competition and land use change. The influence by trade and investment will at times contradict domestic efforts for sustainable resource planning and governance. International trade obligations may thus counteract domestic attempts to offset to consequences from rising food prices or to introduce environmentally or socially sound practices. Last but not least, there is much controversy surrounding the question to what extent food commodity speculation influences the food price to a degree that food security is at stake (cf. von Braun 2008, p. 2; de Schutter 2010, p. 1). Consequently, international trade and investment need to be recognized both as drivers of unsustainable development trajectories and also as a powerful field of incentive setting on the road to sustainable biomass production and consumption. The section shows that the conditions under which biomass for fuel and material purposes is produced vary at national and regional level, i.e. biomass production varies in a European or North American context as well as in an African, Latin American or Asian. At the same time, there are a range of factors, particularly related to the environmental problems associated with the unsustainable production of biomass, which tend to be similar across regions. Soil erosion, biodiversity loss and increased greenhouse gas emissions from land use change are challenges that developed and developing nations deal with. Facing similar environmental problems, the difference between those nations or regions is the capacity and measures taken to address such challenges. Whereas problems associated with biomass for fuel and material purposes can occur anywhere, it is safe to assume that these problems tend to become particularly detrimental in contexts already characterised by environmental degradation and/or socio-political and economic inequality (Beringer et al. 2011, p. 299). 3.1 Social implications of an increased production of biomass for non-food, non-feed purposes The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identifies a wide range of social, economic and environmental implications from the production of biomass for fuel and material purposes (IPCC 2014b, pp. 100 ff.). In the social dimension the authors discuss implications as diverse as labour rights, gender equality, capacity building, loss of traditional cultural practices, or conflicts between competing land use types (ibid.). Table 2 below provides an adapted summary of the IPCC’s assessment on social implications from the production of biomass for non-food and non-feed purposes. The table picks up on our argument that effects from biomass production and consumption can either be negative or beneficial, depending on the contextual circumstances in which they occur. The table further indicates that effects, be they negative or positive, can occur over different scales, i.e. from local to national to international. While the IPCC’s assessment provides a good overview, it does not sufficiently address the emerging global dimension of biomass production. For example, current trends in biomass production are influenced by regional or international policies such as the EU Biofuel Directive or private governance schemes such as the Responsible Agricultural Investment principles by the World Bank, or the Voluntary Guidelines by the FAO. Policies like these determine what is being produced, how production takes place, where and by whom. The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 16 Table 2: Social implications of the production of biomass for fuel and material purposes Social Scale Effect Scale Can improve (+) or decrease (‐) land tenure and use rights for local stakeholders Cross‐sectorial coordination (+) or conflicts (‐) between forestry, agriculture, energy, and/or mining Impacts on labour rights along the value chain +/‐ +/‐ Local to national to international Local to national +/‐ Local to national Competition with food security including food availability (through reduced food production at the local level), food access (due to price volatility), usage (as food crops can be diverted towards biofuel production), and consequently to food stability. Integrated systems can improve food production at the local level creating a positive impact towards food security Increasing (+) or decreasing (‐) existing conflicts or social tension ‐ Local to global + Local +/‐ Local to national Impacts on traditional practices: using local knowledge in production and treatment of bioenergy crops (+) or discouraging local knowledge and practices (‐) Displacement of small‐scale farmers. Bioenergy alternatives can also empower local farmers by creating local income opportunities Promote capacity building and new skills +/‐ Local +/‐ Local + Local Gender impacts +/‐ Local to national Source: Table adapted from IPCC (2014b). IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Chapter 11 on Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) (2014 (11): 100 ff.) All of the social implications listed in Table 1 require attention. Here, we decided to focus on two aspects: (1) food security and (2) struggles over access to land. 1) Biomass and food security: The question whether biomass production for nonfood / non-feed purposes threatens food security is undoubtedly the most contested question when discussing the implications of biomass production for fuel and material purposes. With 805 million people being estimated to be chronically hungry (FAO, 2014b, p. 1), food security must remain at the heart of the Sustainable Development Goals and the post-2015 development agenda. Reducing the land available for food production in favour of land cultivated with crops for fuel and material purposes, has been shown to reduce per capita food availability and, associated with this, a rise in food prices (Alves Finco and Doppler 2010, p. 194; Haberl et al. 2013, p. 35 ff.). Rising food prices, particularly for staple crops, like rice and wheat, are of general concern for net food consumers anywhere. The hardest hit, however, are the poor, who spent a large share of their household income on food (von Braun 2008, p. 4; Koizumi 2013, p. 107). The world food crisis in 2008 illustrated that a surge in food prices for staples like wheat, corn and rice caused massive social unrest and political instability in both poor and developed nations. For example, wheat retail prices in Upper and Lower Egypt increased on average by 50 percent from January to May 2008, causing social unrests (FAO, 2014c). The government of Haiti was toppled partially because of the high food prices that added to the broader discontentment with the government. It is widely agreed that the 2008 food crisis was caused by a mix of different factors including diversion of food crops into biofuel production, in addition to the record high prices of crude oil, which resulted in an increase in the search for alternatives to fossil fuels, the lack of storage systems in many countries, bad harvests in some major production regions and the crisis of the financial system, which resulted in a diversion of capital into natural resources and agricultural commodities (von Braun 2008, p. 2). The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 17 What is particularly noteworthy with regard to the problem of rising food prices is that, in a global market for food commodities, the food price dimension of biomass production has implications far beyond the locality where the biomass is produced. In other words, food prices in one part of the world can influence food security in others. Land use and production related decisions are to some degree made at farm level and to some other degree based on regional or national agricultural planning; economic incentives set by agricultural and market policies; and legal frameworks. Moreover, food security might also be put at risk, if major exporters of food use their production surpluses for domestic biofuels production rather than delivering it to world markets (see our earlier discussion on trade and investment) (Haberl et al. 2013, p. 40). Decisions to change agricultural production from food crop to fuel and fibre crops, therefore, go much further than the local scale that actors and decision-makers usually take into consideration. In most cases, producers, investors and policy-makers do not account for the negative implications they cause. The setting of food prices is a ‘transboundary’ challenge where land use decisions and land-intensive policies (e.g. EU Biofuels Directive) of one political or legal jurisdiction are responded to and/or have to be dealt with by actors in other adjacent and even far detached jurisdictions. In discussing likely implications of a biomass related decrease in land area available for food production, one should also account for possibilities to counteract this trend. Examples include productivity increases (as discussed in Section 2), the use of marginal land, mixed production systems, food waste management and a re-engaging in food production as a reaction to rising prices. At this point, it is important to note that neither of these options guarantees any positive effects regarding land competition and its associated negative implications. Instead it is once again the conditions under which these measures are enacted that determine their relative success or failure. One must further note that alleviating the pressure on land by either of these measures does not automatically change the political economy of food pricing and food distribution. The use of marginal or degraded land has been championed as a win-win solution by many supporters of biomass for fuel and material purposes. Several studies indicate that under specific conditions biomass production on degraded lands does not interfere with food production, but also entails a range of positive environmental effects including soil protection, water retention, biodiversity habitation and carbon sequestration (Van Dam et al. 2009, p. 1705; for a review on this debate cf. Immerzeel et al. 2014). As these studies are indeed promising, in practice, however, biomass is rarely produced on marginal or degraded land. The reason for this is that biomass production on degraded land is in many cases economically unfeasible either vis a vis alternative crops (Swinton et al. 2011) or owing to insufficient yields (Rajagopal 2007). What is more, even if the production on marginal or degraded land was economically profitable, the second crucial condition, namely ‘unused’, will seldom apply (Baka 2014; Cotula 2012, p. 655; Dufey et al. 2007, p. 13). In fact, there is hardly any land which is literally empty and unused (Berndes et al. 2003; Rossi and Lambrou 2008). For example, the Rights and Resources Initiative reports that over 93% of land used for mining, logging, agriculture and oil and gas development has been inhabited and used prior to those activities (Alforte et al. 2014, p. 1). Therefore, competing demands between biomass and food production and biomass and biodiversity habitats can result in a range of additional negative implications, such as change from other land use types and the expulsion of land users (German et al. 2013; Cotula 2012; Mwakaje 2012; Scheidel and Sorman 2012). Mixed production systems only represent a feasible strategy to offset land competition by way of integrating fuel and material production into crop rotation, if the market for biomass crops accepts the sale of rather small quantities and -in the case of annual plants like maizeseasonal availability. Despite several cases in which biomass production is successfully integrated into small and medium scale agriculture with crop rotation or intercropping systems The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 18 (Langeveld et al. 2013; Egeskog et al. 2011), still the great majority of biomass is produced under large scale monoculture conditions. As discussed in Section 2.1., on-farm and off-farm waste management represent a promising strategy to decrease overall pressures on land. Between 5% and 30% of food crops produced are lost due to insufficient postharvest treatment including, storage, pest management and transport. Food spoilage and waste account for annual losses of $310 billion USD in developing countries, where nearly 65% of food is lost at the production, processing and postharvest stages (CTA 2012, p. 1). Depending on the crop, between 15 and 35% of food may be lost before it even leaves the field (ibid.). Similar problems occur at retail and consumption level where food crops are lost due to periodical oversupply and insufficient consumption planning. The United States Department for Agriculture accordingly estimates an annual loss of around 31% of food worth 163 billion USD in the United States alone (Buzby and Hyman 2012, p. 561). A significant reduction in on-farm and off-farm food waste could increase food availability. Successful food waste management could also relieve pressures on land and open up additional land for other uses including the production of biomass for fuel and material purposes. (2) Biomass and access to land: The production of biomass for fuel and material purposes can entail a loss of access to land among marginalized social groups. In many such cases increasing land demand and, associated with this, competition between different types of land uses can result in social conflict and the expulsion of marginalized actors vis-a-vis a concentration of land among powerful actors (German et al. 2013). Dramatic shifts in access are less likely whenever a farmer has secure land rights and sufficient financial resources. Land distribution is predominantly unequal in countries and regions with weak law enforcement systems, weak civil societies and political and economic inequality (Cotula et al. 2008, p. 14). Redistribution in access to land also tends to occur alongside major changes in land use, e.g. when forests or pastoral lands are transformed to agricultural land. Insecure land rights and radical changes in land use are particularly common in less and least developed countries. A loss in access to land is partly driven by governments who expropriate, redistribute or withdraw land from users and allocate this land to biofuel producers based on the assumption that biofuel crop production is economically more viable than other types of land use (Cotula et al. 2008, p. 24). Another driver to loss of access are market forces which imply that the highest bidder usually gains access to land and decides over land use (Cotula and Toulmin 2007). The production of biomass for fuel and material purposes is particularly likely to attract actors who are able to engage in large scale farming and to search economies of scale. Market forces may also foster changes in access to land by women, because control over increasingly high-value land may shift from women to men (Rossi and Lambrou 2008, p. 7). Loss of access to land also occurs indirectly, i.e. by other factors which are in turn caused by the spread of production of biofuel crops. For example, “increases in food prices linked to the spread of biofuels may change the economic terms of trade between agriculture and other sectors of the economy, and between rural and urban areas. As food crops are displaced from higher value lands, they may retreat to areas that are less fertile but still fit for farming, pushing current users onto other lands.” (see Cotula et al. 2008: pp. 24) The redistribution of access to land is often accompanied by discourses in which forested, pastoral and other types of land are erroneously labelled as fallow or waste lands (Baka 2014; Cotula et al. 2008). Alternatively, activities practiced by local communities are labelled as economically inefficient, environmentally harmful with slash and burn agriculture practices as one prominent example, socially backward or of minor significance to overall socioeconomic development. What follows from this relabeling of land and its uses, is that not only are certain land use types are championed over others, but there is often also a shift in the actors that are granted access to the land (Duvenage et al. 2013; Ewing and Msangi 2009; Hall et al. The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 19 2009; German et al. 2013). Box 4 below cites a case study by Cotula et al. (2008) on large scale bioethanol production in Mozambique. The authors’ case represents a perfect illustration of how in particular large scale biofuel production can result in social conflict regarding land access. Box 4: Case study: Large scale biofuel production and access to land in Mozambique cited from Cotula et al. (2008, pp: 35-36) The Mozambican government has pursued policies to attract large-scale investment in biofuels. Recent signing of a contract between the government and the London-based Central African Mining and Exploration Company (CAMEC) for a large bioethanol project, called Procana, illustrates this. Procana involves the allocation of 30,000 ha of land in Massingir district, in the Southern province of Gaza, for a sugar cane plantation and a factory to produce 120 million litres of ethanol a year. The land was allocated on a provisional basis for two years, within which the investor must initiate project implementation. Concerns have already been raised with regards to the effects of Procana on access to both land and water for local groups. The plantation will abstract water from a dam, fed by a tributary of the Limpopo River, which also supports irrigated smallholder agriculture. Farmers downstream have expressed concerns that the Procana project will absorb the bulk of available water, leaving little for local farmers. Government officials have disputed these calculations, arguing that the dam has enough capacity to meet the water demand of both Procana and local irrigation schemes. As for land, the Procana project attracted criticism from representatives of international donors and local communities on the grounds that the land allocated to the project had already been promised to four local communities displaced from their land by the creation of the Limpopo Transfrontier Park, a joint conservation initiative among Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. The displaced communities, numbering over 1,000 families, were promised housing, electricity, running water and grazing at the new site after a protracted three year battle with the government, in which they were supported by a local human rights organisation ORAM (Organizacao Rural de Ajuda Mutua, Rural Organisation for Mutual Help). However, according to press reports, the date of the planned relocation has been postponed several times and has not yet occurred as the same tract of land has been granted to the Procana bioethanol project. Community leaders have been told that there is sufficient land in the site for both the new villages and the biofuel plantations, but they have yet to see any construction work begin. 3.2 Economic risks and opportunities associated with an increase in biomass production for non-food, non-feed purposes The IPCC’s Fifth assessment report discusses a range of economic risks and opportunities that emerge in the context of the production of biomass for non-food and non-feed purposes. Table 3 represents an adapted summary of the IPCC’s findings. A key message to be taken from the table is that, as with the social implications of biomass production, also economic implications can be either beneficial or detrimental depending on the circumstances in which production occurs. The table further alludes to the fact that economic effects associated to biomass production must also be differentiated with respect to different actor groups. Similar to our earlier example on land losses vis-a-vis land concentration, also an economic assessment of biomass production may thus indicate that there are both winners and losers in that process. In other words, considering the large variety of stakeholders involved, biomass production is seldom a genuine economic win-win situation, nor does it represent a situation where everyone loses out. Finally, as before, economic risks and opportunities from biomass production can occur over different scales. The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 20 Table 3: Economic risks and opportunities from the production of biomass for non-food and non-feed purposes Economic Scale Increase in economic activity, income generation, and income diversification Mono-cropping and contract farming imply higher degree of economic dependence Increase (+) or decrease (‐) market opportunities Effect + Scale Local - Local +/‐ Local to national There can be trade-offs between different land uses, reducing land availability for local stakeholders. Contribute to the changes in prices of feedstock - Local +/‐ Local to global May contribute to energy independence (+), especially at the local level (reduce dependency on fossil fuels) May promote concentration of income and/or increase poverty if sustainability criteria and strong governance is not in place Uncertainty about mid‐ and long‐term revenues + Local to national ‐ Local to regional ‐ Local to national Decreasing degree of domestic food security and increasing dependence on food imports Social welfare costs from unsustainable biomass production - National - National to global Employment creation vis a vis loss of employment in other land use sectors Increasing infrastructure coverage (+). However if access to infrastructure and/or technology is reduced to few social groups it can increase marginalization (‐) Bioenergy options for generating local power or to use residues may increase labour demand, creating new job opportunities. Technology might reduce labour demand (‐). -/+ Local to regional +/‐ Local + Local ‐ Local Source. Table adapted from IPCC (2014b). Fifth Assessment Report Chapter 11 on Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) (2014 (11): 100 ff.) One important economic implication of biomass production for fuel and material purposes relates to the aforementioned rise in food prices and the burden this poses particularly on poor consumers. Other economic risks and opportunities are in turn most immediately felt on the production side, i.e. by farmers and other practitioners from the agricultural sector (German et al. 2011). A number of empirical cases indicate that rising agricultural commodity prices and the marketing of biomass for non-food, non-feed purposes can represent an opportunity for creating additional income and rural growth (Amigun et al. 2011, p. 1362; van der Hilst and Faaij 2012, p. 410; Arndt et al. 2012, p. 1930; Danielsen et al. 2009; Hanff et al. 2011; Huang et al. 2012; Mwakaje 2012). Other cases show that producers also face considerable economic risks associated to biomass production. The industrial character of the sectors that drive the demand for biomass for fuel and material purposes implies that biomass is mainly derived from largescale monocultures. Similar to problems that exist in livestock production, for instance in the case of soy production, this tends to decrease crop rotation and other types of on-farm diversification. Diversification functions as a traditional safeguard in agriculture against fluctuating market prices and crop failures. Monocultures planted throughout the year do not provide such safeguards (German et al. 2011). This problem is particularly eminent if the farmer choses to plant perennials, e.g. palm oil trees (ibid.). Similar challenges to those discussed with respect to monocultures may occur with respect to capital investments into infrastructure and machinery. For instance biogas fermenters The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 21 or special purpose harvesters require large capital investments and are therefore often only economical as long as the price for electricity remains above a certain critical level. Another potentially problematic implication from a boost biomass production is found at the macro-economic scale. A country reducing its food production output for the benefit of biomass for fuel and material purposes may - ceteris paribus - become more dependent on food imports. In times of crisis, a high dependence on food imports can become problematic can lead to highly negative trade balances. Lastly, if we consider social welfare implications, we also must account for the fact that all of the social, economic and environmental implications from unsustainable biomass production will also represent an economic burden to the societies facing those effects. 3.3 Ecological implications of an increased production of biomass for non-food, nonfeed purposes Ecological implications from the production of biomass can vary greatly in intensity and extent in different locations and for different crops. Many environmental degradation processes that can be unleashed by the unsustainable production of biomass are irreversible. In addition, many of the ecological consequences described in the following can also occur alongside almost any type of agricultural production other than that of biomass for fibre and material purposes. The consequences described are thus related to land use change and unsustainable agricultural production in general. Table 4 represents a slightly adapted version of the IPCC’s fifth assessment report’s synopsis on potential environmental effects from the production of biomass for non-food and non-feed purposes. Table 4: Environmental implications from the production of biomass for non-food purposes Environmental Scale Biofuel plantations can promote deforestation and/or forest degradation, under weak or no regulation When used on degraded lands, perennial crops offer large‐scale potential to improve soil carbon and structure, abate erosion and salinity problems. However, degraded land only seldom allows economically feasible production of biomass crops Large‐scale bio‐energy crops can have negative impacts on soil quality, water pollution, and biodiversity. Biomass production can displace other land uses and ecosystem services Unsustainable intensification leads to higher environmental impact Multi-cropping systems can provide bioenergy while better maintaining ecological diversity and reducing land‐use competition. However, multi-cropping arrangements are seldom developed as they tend to disintegrate with the industrial character of biomass production and consumption Effect ‐ Scale Local to global -/+ Local to global ‐/+ Local to transboundary Local to global ‐ ‐/+ Local to transboundary Local to national Table adapted from IPCC (2014b). IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Chapter 11 on Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) (2014 (11): 100 ff.) First and foremost, a rising demand in land for biomass production results in different forms of land use change (Bringezu et al. 2012, p. 224). Land use change for biomass production further occurs from forest areas, wetland areas and other non-agricultural areas (Alves Finco and Doppler 2010; Koh and Wilcove 2008). In cases like these, land use change is, prior to the actual planting of the biomass crop, often connected to clearing, drainage, fertilization and intensive ploughing. All of which are tantamount to a significant transformation of the The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 22 ecosystem (Gasparatos et al. 2011, p. 114). See also Box 5 for a case study on oil palm expansion in Indonesia. Clearing the land of its plant cover often entails soil erosion as a consequence to the soils sudden exposure to wind, water and radiation. As such, land clearing for biomass production contributes to what conservative estimates for global soil erosion amount to a loss of 24 billion tonnes of fertile soil annually (Quinton et al. 2010; Bai et al. 2008. Furthermore, soil exposure catalyses biochemical processes, like nitrification, which in the long run decrease soil fertility. Once the preparation and planting of the biomass crop has started also these agricultural practices can become a source of soil erosion. Unsustainable agricultural practices such as intensive ploughing can further cause leakage and loss of nitrates, phosphorus and other mineral soil components risking soil and water contamination (Martinelli and Filoso 2008, p.888). Along the same lines, there is the imminent risk of soil and water contamination through the misuse of harmful agrochemicals. Soil erosion, soil fertility loss and contamination of soils and water bodies can become so severe that the production of biomass and other land based products is put at risk (Martinelli and Filoso 2008, p. 887). Soils under production are integral part of ecosystems. Negative effects from land use change and unsustainable agricultural practices, therefore, tend to affect other parts of the ecosystem such as water, air and living species (Gasparatos et al. 2011, p. 114). Land clearing, soil erosion and the breakdown of organic matter can severely decrease the rate of water retention in catchment areas (Martinelli and Filoso 2008, p. 888). Limiting the soils capacity to store water can be simultaneously the cause for drought as well as for flooding in periods of high precipitation. Another dimension of land use change related problems are carbon and methane emissions. Carbon and methane emissions occur in the course of the biochemical breakdown of organic matter in exposed soils as well as from the burning and biochemical breakdown of trees and other woody plants (Searchinger et al. 2008; Searchinger et al. 2009; Smith and Searchinger 2012). On the Indonesian island of Borneo alone, the clearing of forests for palm oil plantations between 2000 and 2010 resulted in CO2 emissions of 0.038 to 0.045 GtC y-2 (Carlson and Curran 2013, p. 347). If not accounted for, the emissions problem associated to land use change and unsustainable agricultural practices will jeopardize the very aim of using biomass as an emissions-neutral alternative to fossil fuels (Danielsen et al. 2009; Fargione et al. 2008). On top of immediate emissions, greenhouse gas emissions also occur from the use of agricultural machinery and, even more so, during the production and application of mineral nitrogen-based fertilizers (ibid.). Land use change, for instance the clearing forests for agricultural crops, may further result in changes in local micro-climate. Changes in micro-climate like temperature rise, increased local exposition to radiation and wind or changing precipitation patterns can have negative effects on agricultural productivity. Over and above, a changing microclimate can also affect human and animal health (Cançado et. al. 2006, p. 725). The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 23 Box 5: Case study: Oil palm expansion and rainforest destruction in Indonesia A particularly telling case to show the often dramatic environmental consequences of deforestation associated with oil palm expansion is Indonesia. The expansion of oil palm plantations for food, cosmetics, and fuel products is one of the most significant causes of rainforest destruction in Southeast Asia. In Indonesia alone deforestation of rain forest for palm oil plantations is estimated at more than 4 million hectares (Colchester et al. 2006; CIFOR 2013). In Indonesia, more than 56% of oil palm expansion has occurred by converting rainforest to palm plantations (Koh and Wilcove 2008, p. 60). Clearing tropical forests produced a carbon debt that lasts for decades to centuries, thus contradicting one of the main reasons for pursuing biofuels in the first place. Plantation expansion in Kalimantan alone is projected to contribute 18–22% of Indonesia’s 2020 CO2-equivalent emissions (Carlson et al. 2012, p. 283). Apart from carbon storage, conversion compromises other vital ecosystem functions provided by rainforests that cannot be replaced by plantations, such as biodiversity, habitat complexity, seed dispersal and pollination services (Koh and Wilcove 2008). In 2009 the Indonesian government disclosed plans for another dramatic increase of the area planted with oil palms of up to 20 million ha during the next 10-20 years, mostly coming from cleared forests. In May 2011 the President of Indonesia signed a two-year moratorium on new permits to clear primary forests and peat lands, potentially slowing oil palm expansion; however, secondary forests and existing contracts are exempt. Last but not least, land use change can cause loss of biodiversity due to habitat destruction, the use of agrochemicals and machinery (Koh and Wilcove 2008). The loss of soil biodiversity leads to the reduction of numerous essential services, including releasing nutrients in forms that can be used by plants and other organisms, purifying water by removing contaminants and pathogens, contributing to the composition of the atmosphere by participating in the carbon cycle, and providing a major source of genetic and bio-chemical resources. 4 Beyond silo-thinking towards a nexus perspective: Conclusions and further research needs This paper shows that crop expansions required by biomass demand, as implied by the Sustainable Development Goals, may not be possible because not enough arable land will be available for such crop expansions. Taking a nexus approach, this may lead to conflicts over land and other natural resources that the paper discussed. Our assessment of the implicit role of biomass finds that many SDG targets rely on natural resources for their achievement – even though the term biomass in itself is never actually used in current wording of the SDGs. This applies naturally to targets on food and forestry, but also to those on energy and sustainable consumption and production. While several targets aim for reducing either the overuse or the demand for biomass through taking measures for energy efficiency or against food waste, it should be noted that the achievement of many biomass-related targets rests almost exclusively upon an expected increase in biomass production, be it an increase in food production to feed a growing population, an increase in the production of modern wood-based fuels and fuel crops to serve as alternative energy source, or an increase in forest biomass to serve an increasing demand for wood based products and carbon storage. Complex problems require integrated solutions. It was stressed that the biomass demand, as implied by the Sustainable Development Goals, may not be feasible - or advisable - from an integrated perspective on sustainable development. The SDG targets, in their current framing, do not specify any exact quantities with respect to the incremental biomass needed. The attempt to discuss a selection of existing projections in this paper can, therefore, only serve to emphasise the possible extent to which the SDG targets would affect the demand and production of biomass. However, the land take associated with the rising demand for different forms of biomass might negatively impact the societies and ecologies that the production of biomass depends on, – for instance, in the form of environmental degradation, deforestation, loss of biodiversity and soil fertility, negative climatic impacts, increasing water scarcity; and/or social The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 24 processes of removal of land users of their land as a result of the commercial pressure on land, and rising hunger. Importantly, the unsustainable production of biomass can undermine its sustained and secure availability and accessibility for all. And, it will be a major obstacle in achieving those development objectives at the core of the Rio+20 sustainable development agenda and the SDGs – namely, to “end poverty in all its forms everywhere” (Goal 1); “reverse land degradation and loss of biodiversity” (Goal 15); and “promote peaceful and inclusive societies for sustainable development” (Goal 16). Promoting a holistic development perspective, this paper also shows that the clear cut distinction of environmental, social and economic implications of biomassrelated land competition is in many respects oversimplified. Strikingly, the SDGs treat the competing development demands for food, feed, fibre and fuel rather disconnected. This silo approach neglects the fact that all types of biomass depend on the same stock of underpinning natural resources, and to achieve all the required productivity increases would put substantial pressure on these resources, most notably land. To manage these trade-offs and interlinkages between different land-consuming development objectives, an integrated approach is necessary, that is aware that the effects cut across different sectors, time-scales and spaces; and affect both societies and ecologies. Take, for example, the issue of environmental degradation that results from unsustainable production of biomass. Like soil erosion and water scarcity, degradation affects the poorest most significantly, often increasing poverty, and outmigration from rural areas. Moreover, it is vital to account for the trans-boundary character of biomass production and consumption that spans across political and legal jurisdictions, a fact which increases the complexity for governance and management strategies. The year 2015 will be a milestone for sustainability governance worldwide, when the international community decides upon the final set of global sustainable development goals (SDGs) as part of the Post-2015 development agenda. The SDGs are supposed to constitute a comprehensive normative framework whose goals will be universally applicable, with targets being tailored according to the specific needs and circumstances of nation-states. Moreover, they transcribe the idea of dealing with external effects of sovereign nation-state decisions by incorporating them into a system of common but differentiated responsibility. Along the principle of subsidiarity, the globally negotiated goals shall be reached at different levels of governance: the national, the regional and the international level. It is up to member states of the United Nations how and by which means the SDGs are being met in the future. As the SDGs will be a much more complex set of goals, covering a much wider area of issues than the formerly agreed upon Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), it is crucial to start thinking of adequate governance schemes that strike the balance between efficiency, effectiveness, and legitimacy. To advance the discussion about governance under the SDG umbrella, it is important to consider potential governance approaches that might allow moderating the trade-offs and interlinkages of the increasing and diverse demand for biomass identified. As a starting point, the previous assessment shows the need to account for international implications, the macro-political setting, as well as the regional differences that are part of biomass production and consumption. For the implementation of the SDGs at different levels of governance, this means firstly, a profound discussion on how to strengthen the policy coherence within the SDG framework, as well as beyond, to create synergies and enhance traction of the SDGs. As shown above assuming production increases to achieve goals and target, while halting the loss of biodiversity and staying within the ecological boundaries maybe difficult. Moreover, in view of biomass, the goals on trade and investment might collide with those on biodiversity and The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 25 food security, when increasing amounts of biomass for fuel and material purposes are exported from food insecure or biodiversity rich countries. This may weaken the underpinning ecosystems, ultimately resulting in ecological degradation, increased hunger and poverty. More coherence is required in the way the three dimensions of sustainable development are integrated and governed, domestically and regarding international implications, and the discussion about how the eradication of hunger, energy insecurity, and poverty (Goals 1 & 2) can be achieved in a more inclusive way (Goal 16) without the cost of further land degradation and loss of biodiversity (Goal 15) needs to be advanced. The discussion on what responsibilities and governance mechanisms are most suitable at what level of governance to do so should be held by all stakeholders. While those questions arise already in the set of goals discussed at UN level today, more norm collisions and uncertainties about how to disaggregate global goals in national responsibilities can be expected once implementation in member-states will be on the political agendas. Moreover, the broader macro-political setting within which the SDGs are placed, would need to be systematically assessed, to identify mechanisms and normative frameworks in place that might prove beneficial or challenging for the SDGs’ universal, multidimensional (social, economic, environmental) features. From the perspective of policy coherence, this means to account for those frameworks and mechanisms -such as the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBDR) or the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples that are in accord with sustainable biomass production, and look whether it is possible to build on their data, insights, and/or institutions. Moreover, it is important to deliberate on necessary features of sustainable biomass governance, such as trade standards and land governance, and look at the status quo of existing governance regimes of international economic governance (e.g., WTO regulations); national legislations; and private governance schemes. Do these support a more sustainable governance of biomass? Would these need adjustments? How can we strengthen the sustainability aspects within and across existing regimes? Would an overarching set of safeguard principles be a useful starting point? From the perspective of common but differentiated responsibilities, the norm collision also raises questions of how the national applications of the universal goals should (ideally) look like in a highly uneven international geography of development. For instance, to halt the loss of biodiversity, industrialized countries could focus on the efficiency and overall reduction of their total biomass consumption, to leave development space for the benefit of emerging economies and least developed countries. And, regarding the international division of labour regarding biomass production, a steering towards a more inclusive & environmentally sustainable development within countries as well as worldwide would be advisable, as mentioned above. These options appear rather unlikely. However, we need to explore how we can operationalize the global dimension of these universal goals at different levels of governance in a way that accounts for the differentiated responsibilities at play. From the viewpoint of biomass-related land take and land competition, it is far from obvious what this means for what country. Moreover, for the SDGs to be effective, it will be important to consider a review mechanism to evaluate whether countries indeed pursue a sustainable agenda in their implementation of the SDGs – both from the national and international perspective. Regional differences and diverse experiences are met by the subsidiarity principle of the SDGs. However, it might be important to add a component of flexibility of to respond to changing dynamics over time; as well as to allow a country to revise a review mechanism and target in case this proofs ineffective and/or turns out to have unintended consequences. In sum, throughout 2015 and beyond, the debate and joint perspectives on these fundamental issues of sustainability (biomass) governance must be held within a multistakeholder framework. In view of the sustainable biomass that we covered in our paper, the following steps could be useful to strengthen sustainable governance of biomass: It might be important to identify and The Role of Biomass in the Sustainable Development Goals 26 assess existing safeguards and human rights regulations (e.g., responsibility to protect) or frames (e.g., right to food) that might apply to the ecological and governance implications of biomass production and consumption, and see whether they can be strengthened, and/or informed by indicators. It might also be useful to build on and strengthen existing sustainability governance mechanisms and agencies to promote sustainable biomass production and consumption, rather than introduce a new set of institutions. It might also be advisable to start an inventory of good policies. Moreover, it might be vital to create a space, for instance, a sort of platform, to continuously discuss SDG topics in general, and sustainable biomass in particular. 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