N - IVT - ETH Zürich

Bevorzugter Zitierstil
Axhausen, K.W. (2011) What might be Good City Form for nonlocal friendship networks?, presentation at the PhD Seminar,
Future Cities Laboratory, Singapore, April 2011.
1
What might be Good City Form for non-local
friendship networks?
KW Axhausen
IVT
ETH
Zürich
April 2011
FUTURE
CITIES
LABORATORY
Good city form ?
3
Mannheim, 1960-1978
Background
4
Karlsruhe, 1978-1980
Background
5
Madison, 1983-1984
Background
6
Karlsruhe, 1984-1989
Background
7
Oxford, 1989-1990
Background
8
London, 1990-1994
Background
9
Innsbrick, 1995-1999
Background
10
Zürich. 1999-
Background
11
Singapore, 2011
Background
12
Good city form ?
13
home.t-online.de/home/k-j.lebus/cdf-hgw.htm
Greifswald, 1821
14
For which world ?
15
A shrinking world
Coach and sailing boat until
1840
Steam ship and locomotive, 1840 - 1930
DIcken, 1998
Propeller aircraft, 1930-1950
Jets, from 1950
16
Scherer, 2004
Shrinking “road” – Switzerland (1950)
Stunde 1
17
Scherer, 2004
Shrinking “road” Switzerland (2000)
Stunde 1
18
Quality-adjusted price of a new car in Switzerland
Frei, 2005
Qualitätsbereinigter Preisindex
(2004 = 100) [%]
1400
1200
Frei, 2004
Raff und Trajtenberg, 1990
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Jahr
19
Price of telecommunication
2000
US International and interstate average
revenue per minute
1750
Index [1995 = 100]
1500
1250
Adapted from FCC (2001)
1000
750
500
250
0
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
20
Productivity and population growth in Western
Europe
3.00
Wachstum [%/Jahr]
(2000), Figure 1
Galor
und Weil
2011
Singapore,
Singapore, 2011
2.50
Produktivität
Bevölkerung
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
Jahr
21
Trip distance distribution (Germany)
100
Anteil [%]
80
60
Kontiv 76
Kontiv 82
Kontiv 89
40
MiD 02
20
0
0.1
1
10
100
Entfernung [km, Klassenmitte]
1000
22
Adapted from Botte, 2003
Swiss commuter catchment areas since 1970
23
Trip purpose distributions (ca. 2005)
Share of kilometers
traveled [%]
Switzerland
Germany
UK
USA
Leisure
44.8
38.3
33.7
32.2
Work/School
35.0
29.7
32.0
31.3
Shopping/Privat business
11.2
21.7
19.7
27.6
Escort
4.9
4.5
7.6
8.5
Others
1.8
4.8
7.1
0.5
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
Total
24
A macroscopic explanation ?
Economies of scale
Economies of scope
+
+
+
Activity
+
Fleet
comfort
+
GDP
+ Tours
+
+
+
slots
-
-
vtts et al.
+
-
+
vkm
t/pkm
+
+
k
+
Market size
-
+
+
Energy costs
+ Elasticity > 0
- Elasticity < 0
Slots: possibilities to move goods or people
For a given infrastructure and commercial
and private fleet
25
(moving) actors in social/physical networks
Personal
worlds of
others
Social captial:
stock of joint
abilities
Biography
Personal
world
Projects
Household locations
Social network geography
Mobility tools
Learning
26
Social leisure ! (2003 Thurgau 6-week diary)
Short vacation
Excursion: nature
Other
Excursion: culture
Meeting friends
Further education (leisure)
Garden/ cottage
Voluntary work
Disco, pub, restaurant, cinema
Meeting relatives/family
Window shopping
Pick up/drop off/attendance
Group/club meeting
Family duty
Cemetery
Active sports
Education
Long-term shopping
Walk or stroll
Daily shopping
Household members travelling along
Other persons travelling along
Dog travelling along
Private business
Private business (doctor,...
Work
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Mean
2.0
2.5
3.0
27
Residence
Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice
28
Logical destination
Residence
Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice
29
Choice
Logical destination
Residence
Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice
30
Residence
Residence
Choice
Logical destination
Residence
Impact of co-ordination, e.g. Location choice
31
A microscopic explanation ?
Specialisation
+
Migration
+
+
+
Activities + Tours
+
+
Wages
+
+
-
-
+ Elasticity > 0
- Elasticity < 0
+
Fleet
comfort
Housing
consumption
-
vtts et al.
+
+
+
Energy
+
vkm
pkm
+
+
+
+
Professional and
personal activity space
k
+
Network
Number
geography
of networks
-
-
Network
overlap
+
-
Local
anomie
32
Number and frequency of contacts – emails to kwa
33
Larsen, Axhausen and Urry, 2006
Biography of an architect in his early thirties
34
An example activity space
Female, 24
Fulltime,single
216 trips
12000761
35
Ohnmacht, 2004
Example social network geography
Female, 28,
4 residential
moves
36
Activity spaces: Lengths of the shortest paths*
35
30
25
20
N
15
10
5
0
50
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
[km]
* 6-week diary; Karlsruhe subsample
37
Number of contacts reported
10%
Frei and Axhausen, 2005
Per cent
8%
6%
4%
2%
0
10
20
30
40
50
Number of contacts named
38
Frei and Axhausen, 2005
Distances between home locations
39
Size of network geometries
40
Frei and Axhausen, 2005
Percent
30
20
10
0
1.E0 1.E1 1.E2 1.E3 1.E4 1.E5 1.E6 1.E7 1.E8 1.E9
1.
E10
95%-confidence ellipse of the social network geography
40
Illenberger, Kowald, Axhausen and Nagel, 2011
Network structures
41
Good city form ?
42
Which network ? What grammars ?
Ahmedabad
43
Which network ? What grammars ?
Berlin, 1750
44
Which network ? What grammars ?
Portland, OR
45
Which network ? What grammars ?
Irvine
46
Questions ?
47
Literature
Axhausen, K.W. (2000) Geographies of somewhere: A review of urban literature,
Urban Studies, 37 (10) 1849-1864.
Axhausen, K.W. (2005) Activity spaces, biographies, social networks and their
welfare gains and externalities: Some hypothesis and empirical results,
PROCESSUS Colloquium, Toronto, June 2005.
Botte, M. (2003) Strukturen des Pendelns in der Schweiz, Diplomarbeit, Fakultät für
Bauingenieurwesen, TU Dresden, August 2003.
Carosio, A., C. Dolci and M. Scherer (2005) Erreichbarkeitsveränderungen in der
Schweiz:
Eine kartographische Darstellung, in K.W. Axhausen and L. Hurni
(eds.) Zeitkarten Schweiz 1950-2000, Chapter 3, IVT and IKA, ETH Zürich,
Zürich.
FCC (2001) Long distance telecommunication industry, FCC, Washington, D.C.
Frei, A. (2005) Was hätte man 1960 für einen Sharan bezahlt?, MSc thesis, IVT,
ETH Zürich, Zürich.
48
Literature
Illenberger, J., M. Kowald, K.W. Axhausen and K. Nagel (Forthcoming) Insights into
a spatially embedded social network from a large-scale snowball sample,
European Physics Journal.
Larsen, J., J. Urry and K.W. Axhausen (2005) Social networks and future mobilities,
report to the Horizons Programme of the Department for Transport, Department
of Sociology, University of Lancaster and IVT, ETH Zürich, Lancaster and
Zürich.
Ohnmacht, T. und K. W. Axhausen (2005) Entwicklung des Forschungsdesign und
der Erhebungsinstrumente für das Projekt Mobilitätsbiographien,
Mobilitätswerkzeuge und soziale Netze, Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und
Raumplanung, 298, IVT, ETH Zürich, Zürich.
Schönfelder, S. (2006) Urban rhythms: Modelling the rhythms of individual travel
behaviour, PhD dissertation, ETH Zürich, Zürich.
Schönfelder S. and Axhausen K. W. (2003) Activity spaces: Measures of social
exclusion? Transportation Policy, 10 (4) 273-286.
Vaze V.S., S. Schönfelder and K.W. Axhausen (2005) Optimization of continuous
space representation for human activity spaces, Arbeitsbericht Vekehrs- und
Raumplanung, 295, Institut für Verkehrsplanung and Transportsysteme (IVT),
ETH Zürich, Zürich
49
Appendix
50
Social network hypotheses
Message
costs
k
-
-
-
-
+
+ Elasticity > 0
- Elasticity < 0
-
Left skew of
intensity
distribution
+
+
Network
geography
Number of contacts
and networks
-
Professional
activity space
Migration
+
-
+
+
Personal
activity space
+
Supervision
gradient
Network
overlap
+
-
Local
anomie
51
Size of goods markets and productivity: A
hypothesis
Economies of scale
Economies of scope
+
Capital/Wages
+
+
GDP
+
+
Monopolies
+
-
-
-
Innovation
-
Prices
+
+
-
Transport system
and demand -
+
k
-
Market size
+
Energy costs
+ Elastizität > 0
- Elastizität < 0
k: Generalised costs
of travel
52