Conference Call – 2Q11 Results
Transcrição
Conference Call – 2Q11 Results
Conference Call – 2Q11 Results August, 2011 “Consistent Investment Case” 1 Disclaimer “The material that follows is a confidential presentation of general background information about GOL Linhas Aéreas Inteligentes S.A. and its subsidiaries (collectively, “Gol” or the “Company”) as of the date of the presentation. It is information in summary form and does not purport to be complete. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made concerning, and no reliance should be placed on, the accuracy, fairness, or completeness of this information. This confidential presentation may contain certain forward-looking statements and information relating to Gol that reflect the current views and/or expectations of the Company and its management with respect to its performance, business and future events. Forward looking statements include, without limitation, any statement that may predict, forecast, indicate or imply future results, performance or achievements, and may contain words like “believe,” “estimate,” “anticipate,” “expect,” “envisages,” “will likely result,” or any other words or phrases of similar meaning. Such statements are subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions. We caution you that a number of important factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed in this presentation. In no event, neither the Company nor any of its affiliates, directors, officers, agents or employees, shall be liable before any third party (including investors) for any investment or business decision made or action taken in reliance on the information and statements contained in this presentation or for any consequential, special or similar damages. This presentation does not constitute an offer, or invitation, or solicitation of an offer, to subscribe for or purchase any securities. Neither this presentation nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. The market and competitive position data, including market forecasts and statistical data, used throughout this presentation was obtained from internal surveys, market research, independent consultant reports, publicly available information and governmental agencies and industry publications in general. Although we have no reason to believe that any of this information or these reports are inaccurate in any material respect, we have not independently verified the competitive position, market share, market size, market growth or other data provided by third parties or by industry or other publications. Gol does not make any representation as to the accuracy of such information. This presentation and its contents are proprietary information and may not be reproduced or otherwise disseminated in whole or in part without GOL’s prior written consent”. 2 Agenda 1 The Brazilian Airline Sector 2 3 Financial Results 4 5 GOL’s Cost Reduction Initiatives 6 Q&A Guidance GOL and Webjet 3 1| The Brazilian Airline Sector 4 IATA Air Transport Market Analysis Regional differences in traffic volumes persist, due to a combination of differing economic conditions and the various shocks of recent months “Latin American airlines are showing the strongest regional growth, propelled by the strength of economies and trade flows to and from the region.” “Brazil has been the fastest growing domestic market so far this year, propelled by strong growth in household incomes over the past year.” 26.2% 21.8% 16.1% 13.8%14.0% 10.4% 7.9% 4.0%1.3% 5.0% 13.4% 0.4% 6.1% 1.9% 9.9% 7.6% 8.1% 6.4% 7.0% 6.1% 4.4% 2.8% 4.1% 1.7% -24.6% -27.8% -0.6% -3.2% Brazil had the strongest growth in demand Latin America had the highest total passenger growth in the industry. Source: IATA comparing to the other important countries, growing more than China and India. 5 Competitive Environment in Brazil GOL has been the most prudent player to add capacity 2011 Brazilian Capacity Growth 21.6% 20.8% 14.4% 14.3% 5.1% 21.2% 4.7% 4.2% 1T11 1Q11 GOL´s Domestic ASK Growth (YoY) 14.4% 2T11 2Q11 Other´s Domestic ASK Growth (YoY) 6M11 6M11 Industry Domestic ASK Growth (YoY) 6 Competitive Environment in Brazil Accelerated domestic market growth due to lower yields 2011 Brazilian Demand Growth 34.7% 28.4% 26.5% 22.7% 21.5% 17.0% 14.2% 11.4% 9.0% 1Q11 1T11 GOL´s Domestic RPK Growth (YoY) 2Q11 2T11 Other´s Domestic RPK Growth (YoY) 6M11 6M11 Industry Domestic RPK Growth (YoY) 7 Competitive Environment in Brazil Load Factor increase through lower fairs GOL’s Load Factor | Yield | RASK 21.13 20.01 20.42 19.83 19.37 18.21 15.50 15.43 15.98 15.96 14.38 13.76 71.29% 70.21% 71.08% 72.35% 4Q10 4T10 1Q11 1T11 1Q11 66.53% 60.35% 1Q10 1T10 2Q10 2T10 3Q10 3T10 Load Factor Yield GOL R$ (cents) 2Q11 2T11 2Q11 RASK 8 2| Financial Results 9 2Q11 Highlights The 2Q11 results reflects the competitive landscape in the domestic market and pressure on the operational costs Financial Highlights 2Q11 1Q11 2Q10 Var% 2Q11/2Q10 Net operating revenues (R$MM) 1,566.3 1,895.7 1,590.9 -1.54% EBIT(R$MM) (270.8) 193.1 57.3 Nm EBIT Margin -17.3% 10.2% 3.6% Nm EBITDAR (R$MM) (67.6) 411.5 274.2 Nm EBITDAR Margin -4.3% 21.7% 17.2% Nm Adjusted Gross Debt / LTM EBITDAR 6.3 x 4.8 x 5.8 x 9.4% Adjusted Net Debt / LTM EBITDAR 4.6 x 3.6 x 4.5 x 1.7% Cash / LTM Net Revenue 29.0% 25.9% 24.7% +4.3 p.p. Operational Highlights 2Q11 1Q11 2Q10 Var% 2Q11/10 Capacity 11,380 11,875 11,060 2.9% Demand 7,571 8,591 6,675 13.4% Load Factor 66.5% 72.3% 60.4% +6.2 p.p. CASK (R$) 16.14 14.34 13.87 16.4% CASK Ex-Fuel (R$) 9.72 8.70 8.70 11.8% RASK (R$) 13.76 15.96 14.38 -4.3% Spread (RASK – CASK) -2.38 1.63 0.52 Nm 10 Factors that Impacted 2Q11 vs. 2Q10 Results Passenger Revenue = -2.3% 6.2 p.p. increase in GOL’s load factor RASK 4.3% Yield decreased 13.8% PRASK down in 5.0% Operating Costs (Ex-Fuel) = +15.0% CASK Ex- Fuel 2Q11 (R$) Maintenance Expenses and Return of three B767s Salaries, Wages and Benefits Expenses 9 Operating volume 9 Hiring and Training 400 co-pilots 9 Contract Terminations 9.72 R$ 43 MM R$10 MM R$5 MM 9.21 Real Increase in Services Prices 9 Landing fees 9 Ramp Services 9 Hotels and Transport Crew Extraordinary Costs generated by the Chilean Volcano Suppliers Fines Total Ex- Devolução TotalDesp. Ex-Fuel Return of de Comb. B767 Expenses B767 Rescisão Suppliers Contract Contratual Terminations com Fornecedor ExRestrições Volcano do Total TotalDesp. Adjusted Comb. Vulcão Restrictions Ex-Fuel Expenses Ajustado 11 Financial Indicators Net Revenue and RASK 15.98 15.96 15.43 14.38 13.76 1,896 1,870 1,789 1,591 1,566 2T10 2Q10 3T10 3Q10 4T10 4Q10 Net Revenue Receita Líquida (R$MM) 1T11 1Q11 (cents of R$) RASK (centavos de R$) EBIT EBITDAR 25.4% 14.0% 10.5% 2T10 2Q10 21.7% 21.3% 10.2% 17.2% 3.6% 57 2T11 2Q11 187 3T10 3Q10 262 4T10 4Q10 193 1T11 1Q11 2T11 (271) 381 475 411 274 (68) 17.3% EBIT (R$MM) EBIT MARGIN Margem EBIT 2T10 2Q10 3T10 3Q10 EBITDAR (R$MM) 4T10 4Q10 1T11 1Q11 EBITDAR Margin Margem EBITDAR 2T11 -4.3% 12 Strong Cash Position Maintenance of High Liquidity Levels Cash Position 29.0% 28.3% 24.7% 1,589 2T10 2Q10 26.3% 1,768 3T10 3Q10 Total Caixa (R$MM) Totaldo Cash 25.9% 1,978 4T10 4Q10 1,847 1T11 1Q11 2,067 2T11 2Q11 TotaldoCash / Net Revenue (LTM) Total Caixa / Receita Líquida (UDM) 13 Financial Indicators Adjusted Gross Debt / EBITDAR Total Cash / Short Term Debt 6.3x 5.8x 5.7x 5.6x 5.9x 6.0x 313 342 5.2x 5.0x 4.8x 597 2.7x 7,352 7,532 7,631 7,344 7,612 2Q10 2T10 3Q10 3T10 4Q10 4T10 1Q11 1T11 2Q11 2T11 2Q10 2T10 338 346 3Q10 3T10 4Q10 4T10 1Q11 1T11 Adjusted Gross Debt Dívida Bruta Ajustada Short de Term Debt Dívida Curto Prazo (R$MM) Adjusted Gross Debt//EBITDAR Dívida Bruta Ajustada EBITDAR(LTM) (UDM) Totaldo cash / Short TermdeDebt Total Caixa / Dívida Curto Prazo 2Q11 2T11 14 3| Guidance 15 2011 Guidance High competition in the local market and non-recurrent increase in certain ex-fuel costs, pressure the results of operations in the short term, demanding GOL’s 2011 guidance revision Previous Scenario 2011 Guidance Current Scenario Worst-case Best-case Worst-case Best-case 4.0% 5.0% 4.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 12.0% 18.0% 34 36 34 36 GOL Capacity (ASKs billion) 48.0 50.0 48.0 50.0 Operational Fleet (end of period) 115 115 115 115 Yield (R$ cents) 19.5 21.0 18.5 19.8 GOL Demand (RPKs billion) 33.0 35.0 34.0 36.0 Departures (000) 315 340 315 340 CASK Ex-fuel (R$ cents) 8.7 8.3 9.4 9.0 Fuel Liters Consumed (billion) 1.55 1.65 1.55 1.65 Fuel Price (R$/liter) 2.10 2.00 2.10 2.00 Average WTI (US$/barrel) 115 100 115 100 Average Exchange Rate (R$/US$) 1.68 1.58 1.65 1.55 Operating Margin (EBIT )* 6.5% 10.0% 1.0% 4.0% Brazilian GDP Growth Domestic Demand Growth (%RPKs) Passengers Transported by GOL (MM) * Considering the adjusted 1Q11 result, excluding any non-cash effects as disclosed in the 1Q11 earnings release. 16 4| GOL’s Cost Reduction Initiatives 17 GOL’s Cost Reduction Initiatives Focus on results: reduce costs and generate new revenues GOL’s Nexts Steps Initiatives Action Impact R$ MM Maintenance Delta Agreement B 767s Lease Exp/Early Return 75 Contingency Sale Spare Parts 30 Access Level of Services Evaluate B737-700 60 Aircraft density Review “Lopas” 35 Roll-out Buy on Board Standardize Free Service 20 Other Expenses Consulting/Contingencies Taxes/Contracts 130 Higher Fleet Productivity > 13 hours/day 80 Subtotal Costs Ex-fuel 530 R$ 1.10 reduction on Cask Ex-fuel Fuel Saving New Engines/APU 120 R$ 0.25 reduction on Cask Total Total Cost 650 100 Cost Reduction Initiatives will have a positive impact of 15% on Cask Ex-Fuel 18 Other Strategic Initiatives Focus on results: reduce costs and generate new revenues GOL’s Nexts Steps 4 Revenue Development 4 Code-shares Strengthen International Partnerships Increase aircraft utilization Focus on profitability Active management of route network (profitable routes) Higher Seat Share and Load Factor Increase Distribution Channels (Shops) 4 Ancillary Revenue Development Expansion of Buy on Board services INTELLIGENT CHECK-IN Continuously cargo service development (new services and more cities attended) Sales of miles in advance Partnership with retailers and hotels * Entertainment on Board (2H11) * Illustrative picture of the entertainment gateway to be launched 19 GOL’s Strong Balance Sheet Supports Its Plan Focus on results: Reduce costs and generate new revenues GOL’s Financials Aspects Strategy Hedge Position Prioritization of Higher-Return Projects Continue Stretching Debt Profile Maintain High Liquidity (25% of LTM Current Position If triggers reached Current % Average HR Maximum % Average HR Revenues) 6 months 44% 47% Conservative and Non-Speculative Hedge 12 months 32% 46% Policy 24 months 16% 30% Return to Positive Operating Margins 36 months 10% 22% 20 5| GOL and Webjet 21 Strengthening of Company Position in Domestic Market Largest route network in Latin America with high frequency in major cities GOL’s Dominant position in Brazil’s Main Airports (1,2) The Operation seeks the Company strengthening in Domestic Market (1,2) GOL + Webjet GOL 6 5 Brasília as así asíl sília (Brasília) ííli ) Confins Con Conf fiins fins s ((Belo (B Belo B Be elo Horizonte Ho orizo zo onte o on nte) 4 6 5 Brasília as así asíl sília (Brasília) ííli ) Confins Co Con Conf fins s (Belo (Be (B Belo Horizonte Ho orizo zo ont o nte) 6 6 5 7 4 1 Salgado Filho (Porto Alegre)) 2 Galeão (Rio de Janeiro) 5 7 4 1 3 7 Salgado Filho (Porto Alegre)) 3 3 1 2 Subtitle: ubtitle: Santos s Dumo Dumont ont Janeiro) (Rio de Janei ro) 1 2 7 3 3 1 Con Congonhas ngonhas (São Paulo) Guarulh Guarulhos (São Paulo) 2 Guarulhos Guarulh (São Paulo) Others Others (1) Source: Hotrans approved on 07/01/2011 (2) Source: ANAC Annual Report • • • Galeão (Rio de Janeiro) 3 Subtitle: e: Con Congonhas ngonhas (São o Paulo) 4 Cabotage operations (ex:GIG-POA-Foreign) are considered as domestic Only Friday frequencies were considered TAM consolidates Tam Group + Pantanal Santos s Dumo Dumont ont Janeiro) (Rio de Janei ro) Southeast Region: -75% of GDP G -65 % of total traffic, in which 65% are business passengers 22 Benefits of the Transaction R$100 million estimated synergies between the companies Synergies 9 Corporate (Sales, general expenses and administrative): R$60 millions ¾ International distribution channel increase ¾ Process standartization ¾ Scale gains in negotiations with suppliers (fuel) 9 Operational: R$40 millions ¾ Main airports basis integration ¾ Implementation of phased maintenance process on all aircraft ¾ Optimization of spare parts stock (CFM turbines for B737) ¾ Additional synergies also includes higher utilization of GOL's CNF maintenance center and handling 9 People: ¾ Integration eased due to similiar corporate cultures ¾ Litlle need of new certifications for technical and comercial crew ¾ Market´s growth perspective offers career opportunities 23 Debt Schedule on December/2010 (Pro Forma) 1,344 * 622 227 Webjet GOL 2011 81 146 89 73 42 2012 34 55 2013 24 49 2014 24 18 2015 24 598 After 2015 Após 1344 * Source: Webjet´s Offering Form Includes R$ 500 MM of last issued bond 24 Next Steps of the Operation Steps of Acquisition Process Signature of MOU (Memorandum of Understanding) Signature of Acquisition Contract 9 9 Companies operating separately (synergy analysis) ANAC´s Approval/ Payment/ Share Transfer (closing) CADE´s Approval Final structure decision Companies Working Under a Full Complementary Strategy 25 6| Q&A 26
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