Oscar Math

A Harvard man’s 2015 Oscar predictions
By Ben Zauzmer Globe Correspondent February 18, 2015
There are lots of great options for impressing your friends on Oscar night, from studying the
movies to reading critic reviews to browsing expert predictions. But would you believe me if I
told you there was a better way to win your Oscar pool: math?
I am a senior at Harvard studying applied math, and for the past four years, I have used nothing
but data and statistics to handicap the Oscars. My model has done quite well, predicting at least
75 percent of the winners annually, and even picking some notable upsets including Meryl
Streep’s 2012 best actress win and Ang Lee’s 2013 best director award.
How does my algorithm work? I have gathered thousands of data points on Oscar ceremonies
over the past two decades – such as categories movies are nominated in, other awards show
results, and aggregate critic scores – and I use statistics to calculate how good a predictor each of
those metrics is in each Oscar category. Then, I plug in the numbers from this year’s awards
season, and that gives me the percentage chance that each film will win in each category.
For example, in the best actor category, the British equivalent of the Oscars (BAFTA), the
Screen Actors Guild (SAG), and a host of other organizations pick their winners. Often, these
groups don’t all agree. So, I use math to determine, based upon previous years’ results, how
much we should listen to each group. I have set up the formulas such that the math automatically
gives higher weights to those predictors that have done a better job of forecasting the Oscars in
the past.
Of course, numbers alone can’t predict the Academy Awards. Low percentage chances do occur
on occasion. That’s the fun of it. But this year, here’s what my calculations tell me.
Editor’s note: We’ve added the actual winners to the predictions below, as announced at the
Feb. 22 Academy Awards.
Picture
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
American Sniper
Whiplash
The Theory of Everything
Selma
39.9%
21.8%
9.2%
9.2%
6.4%
6.4%
6.2%
1.0%
With all due respect to “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” this is a two-horse race between “Birdman”
and “Boyhood.” Many smart people will pick “Boyhood” – it is certainly a remarkable artistic
achievement, and it did win the BAFTAs and the Golden Globe for best drama. But “Birdman”
claimed the SAG award for best cast, the Producers Guild Award (PGA), and, most importantly,
the Directors Guild Award (DGA). The last of those three has predicted 80 percent of the last 15
best picture winners, so think long and hard before betting against “Birdman.”
Winner: Birdman (correct)
Director
Alejandro Inarritu, Birdman
Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game
Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
DATA: Ben Zauzmer
Globe Staff
55.6%
23.9%
10.0%
9.5%
1.0%
In this category as well, the DGA is the best predictor. Alejandro G. Inarritu claimed that award,
and that automatically makes him the favorite, though the math suggests we can’t rule out
Richard Linklater. The disclaimer here is that the math strongly prefers that the same film win
both of the top two awards, since that is such a common occurrence in Oscar history. If there is a
picture/director split, as in the last two years, it’s quite possible that “Boyhood” takes one
category or the other.
Winner: Alejandro G. Inarritu, Birdman (correct)
Actor in a Leading Role
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Michael Keaton, Birdman
13.8%
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
77.1%
4.0%
4.0%
1.0%
The three best predictors for the two top acting categories are the SAGs, the Golden Globes
(drama), and the BAFTAs. Eddie Redmayne won all three for “The Theory of Everything.” It’s
possible that Michael Keaton wins but, make no mistake, that would be a mathematical upset.
Winner: Eddie Redmayne (correct)
Actress in a Leading Role
Julianne Moore, Still Alice
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything
Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl
Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
84.4%
6.0%
4.3%
4.3%
1.0%
Julianne Moore swept the SAGs, the Golden Globes (drama), and the BAFTAs. She should win
in a landslide for her role in “Still Alice.”
Winner: Julianne Moore (correct)
Actor in a Supporting Role
J. K. Simmons, Whiplash
Edward Norton, Birdman
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood
Robert Duvall, The Judge
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
84.7%
6.7%
6.3%
1.2%
1.0%
The year of non-competitive acting races continues. J.K. Simmons (“Whiplash”) took those same
three major acting predictors, and he will run away with the Oscar.
Winner: J.K. Simmons (correct)
Actress in a Supporting Role
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game
Emma Stone, Birdman
Meryl Streep, Into the Woods
Laura Dern, Wild
82.2%
7.2%
6.9%
2.7%
1.0%
Yet again, the major predictors all agree. Put a check mark next to Patricia Arquette’s name, for
“Boyhood.”
Winner: Patricia Arquette (correct)
Original Screenplay
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Nightcrawler
44.3%
40.4%
9.7%
4.6%
1.0%
Normally, the Writers Guild (WGA) is a strong predictor, correctly forecasting 70 percent of
screenplay races over the past 15 years. But this year, “Birdman” was ruled ineligible by the
WGA, enabling “The Grand Budapest Hotel” to make a strong stand with wins from the WGAs
and the BAFTAs. The math is essentially saying, “this race is a toss-up,” but Golden Globe and
Critics Choice wins make “Birdman” a slight favorite.
Winner: Birdman (correct)
Adapted Screenplay
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
Inherent Vice
American Sniper
63.3%
24.7%
7.8%
3.3%
1.0%
Another two-film race, though not quite as close as its original screenplay counterpart. “The
Theory of Everything” jumped into second place with a BAFTA win, but a WGA victory for
“The Imitation Game” is the biggest reason to place it first.
Winner: The Imitation Game (correct)
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya
45.6%
34.1%
10.3%
5.3%
4.7%
Bizarre. “The LEGO Movie,” which has been receiving honor after honor, was somehow not
even nominated by the Academy. Then, the Golden Globes chose “How to Train Your Dragon
2,” and it seems the entire Hollywood community has assumed the race is settled. Not so fast.
The Globes have only been picking this category for eight years, they already have two misses,
and quite a few of the other predictors selected “Big Hero 6.” The math suggests this is a much
closer race then people realize, but “Dragon 2” is in fact the correct frontrunner.
Winner: Big Hero 6 (incorrect)
Foreign Language
Ida
Tangerines
Leviathan
Timbuktu
Wild Tales
56.3%
20.5%
16.4%
3.4%
3.4%
“Ida” accomplished the impressive feat of being nominated for both best foreign language film
and at least one other award – in this case, best cinematography. That alone would have made
“Ida” the frontrunner, but the Polish film has also earned honors from a wide variety of sources.
Winner: Ida (correct)
Documentary Feature
Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
Salt of the Earth
Virunga
42.4%
29.8%
25.8%
1.0%
1.0%
The BAFTAs only recently revitalized this category, so their choice of “Citizenfour” isn’t as
helpful as it might seem. But the DGAs also picked the Edward Snowden profile, which makes it
the weak frontrunner in a difficult category to predict mathematically.
Winner: Citizenfour (correct)
Visual Effects
Interstellar
Guardians of the Galaxy
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
X-Men: Days of Future Past
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
50.5%
24.9%
16.9%
6.6%
1.0%
In recent years the Academy has had a habit of awarding best visual effects to the film with the
most overall nominations. While that’s not the only factor I use in my model, it’s definitely part
of why “Interstellar” – the only contender with more than two nominations – comes out on top.
Winner: Interstellar (correct)
Cinematography
Birdman
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Mr. Turner
Ida
Unbroken
38.6%
28.9%
22.7%
8.8%
1.0%
Very astute Oscar viewers may be a little surprised to see “Birdman” in first here, since normally
a film needs a best production design nomination to win best cinematography. But there are
exceptions – “Slumdog Millionaire” (2008) is the most recent – and the math says that BAFTA
and American Society of Cinematographers guild winner “Birdman” will be one of them.
Winner: Birdman (correct)
Film editing
Boyhood
Whiplash
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
American Sniper
50.7%
21.5%
15.8%
10.3%
1.6%
There’s not enough mathematical precedent to back this statement up, but I’m going to say it
anyway: If you edit 12 years of footage down to a critically acclaimed film, you will win best
film editing in a landslide. Strangely, the BAFTAs didn’t even nominate “Boyhood” in this
category, but the win from the much more predictive American Cinema Editors guild was
enough to put Linklater’s film comfortably in first.
Winner: Whiplash (incorrect)
Sound Editing
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
The Hobbit III
35.5%
28.6%
19.6%
8.7%
7.7%
While not the most-watched race of the evening, this will be one of the most exciting. The
Motion Picture Sound Editors honored “American Sniper,” the Cinema Audio Society (a better
predictor for best sound mixing) chose “Birdman,” and the BAFTAs (also a better predictor of
the other sound category) selected un-nominated “Whiplash.” That makes this race the definition
of a toss-up, but the math favors “Sniper.”
Winner: American Sniper (correct)
Sound Mixing
Whiplash
American Sniper
Birdman
Interstellar
Unbroken
38.4%
36.4%
17.2%
7.0%
1.0%
How can my algorithm choose a frontrunner, “Whiplash,” that wasn’t even nominated by the
Cinema Audio Society? The answer is its BAFTA victory: the British have a great track record
here, picking two thirds of champions over the past 15 years. But at a 2 percent gap between first
and second, this is the single closest race of the evening. Don’t be surprised if “American
Sniper” winds up sweeping the sound awards.
Winner: Whiplash (correct)
Production Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
65.4%
16.8%
11.6%
5.0%
1.1%
No film since “Gladiator” (2000) has won both the BAFTA and the Art Directors Guild award
for a period film without managing to win the corresponding Oscar. “The Grand Budapest
Hotel” should sail to victory here.
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel (correct)
Costume Design
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Inherent Vice
Maleficent
56.9%
24.1%
17.0%
1.0%
1.0%
Same situation as in production design. No nominee since “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon”
(2000) has won both the BAFTA and the Costume Designers Guild award without winning the
Oscar. Score another victory for “Grand Budapest Hotel.”
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel (correct)
Makeup and Hairstyling
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Foxcatcher
Guardians of the Galaxy
67.0%
17.9%
15.1%
This is another category in which more total nominations increases a film’s chance of winning.
Add in BAFTA and guild victories for “Grand Budapest Hotel” and you’ve got a pretty clear
winner in what’s normally a very difficult category to predict.
Winner: Grand Budapest Hotel (correct)
Original Score
The Theory of Everything
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
43.7%
24.4%
18.7%
12.2%
1.0%
Any film except “Mr. Turner” could win this one. The Golden Globes are the best predictor, with
a not-too-impressive 53 percent rate that’s just enough to put “The Theory of Everything” out in
front.
Winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel (incorrect)
Original Song
Glory, Selma
Everything Is Awesome, The LEGO Movie
Lost Stars, Begin Again
I'm Not Gonna Miss You, Glen Campbell
Grateful, Beyond the Lights
45.7%
36.8%
8.7%
4.8%
4.1%
There are no great predictors in this category, which is why the Golden Globe and Critics Choice
wins for “Glory” aren’t enough to even put it above 50 percent. By the same token, all of the
critic circle victories for “Everything is Awesome” aren’t enough to catapult it into first place.
This is a category that may very well come down to which film – “Selma” or “The LEGO
Movie” – voters feel was more snubbed.
Winner: Glory (correct)
Note: There is not enough data to predict the three short film categories using math, mainly
because most other awards shows don’t make selections in those categories. But if you’re using
this article to fill out your Oscar ballot, I’d recommend “The Phone Call” in the live action
category, “Feast” for animated short, and “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1” for documentary
short. Those are all films that have gained a lot of critical praise this year.