Análises exploratórias e preditivas

Análises exploratórias e preditivas
SAP Predictive Analytics
SAP Brasil
Julho/2013
Big Data
© 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved.
2
“Big Data”
48 horas
+ de 3 mil
de vídeos
fotografias
2 milhões
571
pesquisas
sites novos
100 mil
atualizações
A internet
+ de 200 mil
em 1min
Fontes: Techland, Facebook, Google, Engadget,
Twitter, Apple, Youtube, Gizmodo
Efeito Big Data
Muita informação à disposição,
mas o que fazer com ela?
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
010
10
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 101
1 01 0
10 1
0 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
01
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 010101
0 1 0 1 01 0
1 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
010
10
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 101
1 01 0
10 1
0 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
01
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 010101
0 1 0 1 01 0
1 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
010
10
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 101
1 01 0
10 1
0 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 0 10 10 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1
1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 10 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 01 0 1 01 01 0 1 0 1 01 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 0
Curva de Maturidade Analítica
Vantagem competitiva
Compreensão & Reação
Prever & Agir
Otimização
Modelagem
Preditiva
Relatórios
Ad Hoc &
OLAP
Dados
Brutos
Dados
Limpos
O que é o melhor que
poderia acontecer?
Análises
Preditivas
Genéricas
Relatórios
Padrões
O que vai acontecer?
Por que aconteceu?
O que aconteceu?
Maturidade analítica
© 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved.
5
A história da Análise Preditiva na SAP
2001
...
2004
2005
2006
2007
...
2009
...
2011
2012
SAP SAF
Simulation, Analysis
and Forecasting
BOBJ OEM
KXEN
BOBJ OEM SPSS
SAP APD
BW Analysis Process Designer
BOBJ OEM
APPS ThinkAnalytics
SAP RTOM
Real Time Offer Management (real
time recommendation technology
acquisition from Ingeneo)
SAP Predictive Investment
Iniciativa estratégica
SAP
KHIM
Khimetrics
© 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved.
6
The Forrester Wave™: Big Data Predictive Analytics Solutions, Q1
2013
“SAP is a newcomer to big data predictive
analytics but is a Leader due to a strong
architecture and strategy’. ‘SAP also differentiates
by putting its SAP HANA in-memory appliance at
the centre of its offering, including an in-database
predictive analytics library (PAL), and offering a
modelling tool that looks a lot like SAS Enterprise
Miner and IBM SPSS Modeler.’
© 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved.
7
Modelos Preditivos
Análises Preditivas e
Exploratórias
Fontes de
dados
“SAP is a newcomer to big data predictive
analytics but is a Leader due to a strong
architecture and strategy’. ‘SAP also differentiates
by putting its SAP HANA in-memory appliance at
the centre of its offering, including an in-database
predictive analytics library (PAL), and offering a
modelling tool that looks a lot like SAS Enterprise
Miner and IBM SPSS Modeler.’
Análises
Browser
Relatórios
acompanhamento
Análises Preditivas e
Exploratórias
Modelos Preditivos
Biblioteca R
Processamento em memória (PAL)
Ad-Hoc
Excel
“SAP is a newcomer to big data predictive
analytics but is a Leader due to a strong
architecture and strategy’. ‘SAP also differentiates
by putting its SAP HANA in-memory appliance at
the centre of its offering, including an in-database
predictive analytics library (PAL), and offering a
modelling tool that looks a lot like SAS Enterprise
Miner and IBM SPSS Modeler.’
Plataforma
Memória
Banco de
dados colunar
SAP HANA
Processador
Integração de dados
Fontes estruturadas
e não estruturadas
Fontes de
dados
Qualidade dos
dados
Eventos em
tempo real
Análises Preditivas e
Exploratórias
Modelos Preditivos
Biblioteca R
Processamento em memória (PAL)
Open Source
+3,500 add-ons (pacotes); capacidade de
escrever suas próprias funções
Amplamente utilizado para uma variedade
de métodos estatísticos: modelos lineares e
não-lineares, testes estatísticos, análise de
séries temporais, classificações e
agrupamentos, etc.
Mais algoritmos e pacotes que SAS +
SPSS + Statistica
Análises Preditivas e
Exploratórias
Modelos Preditivos
Biblioteca R
Processamento em memória (PAL)
Association Analysis
Classification Analysis
Apriori
C4.5 Decision Tree Analysis
Apriori Lite
CHAID Decision Tree Analysis
K Nearest Neighbour
Cluster Analysis
Multiple Linear Regression
K-Means
Polynomial Regression *
Kohonen Self Organized Maps
Exponential Regression
Bi-Variate Geometric Regression
Time Series Analysis
Single Exponential Smoothing
Bi-Variate Logarithmic Regression
Logistic Regression
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Other
ABC Classification
Outlier Detection
Inter-Quartile Range Test (Tukey’s Test)
Variance Test
Anomaly Detection
Weighted Scores Table
Demonstração
© 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved.
12
Comunidade – SAP Predictive Analysis
http://scn.sap.com/community/
predictive-analysis
© 2013 SAP AG. All rights reserved.
13
Obrigado!
Gabriel Dornella F. Bastos
[email protected]
(55 11) 9.8142-3722