Cenário macro: riscos e oportunidades

www.cvib.com.br
3º Forum Value São Paulo
22 de novembro de 2012
Cenário Macro: Riscos e Oportunidades
José Carlos Carvalho | Paineiras Investimentos
!"#$%&'&()*#+,&-*,#./01#
2./*34.%.'2&5#%*()'6*'2&#7*8*#
4(*#'&9*#8.%.//:&
Sep/11
Sep/12
Jul/12
May/12
Mar/12
Jan/12
USA
Nov/11
36
Jul/11
China
May/11
38
Mar/11
EU
Jan/11
40
Nov/10
Sep/10
Jul/10
34
May/10
Mar/10
Jan/10
Nov/09
Sep/09
Jul/09
May/09
Mar/09
Jan/09
Nov/08
Sep/08
Jul/08
May/08
Mar/08
Jan/08
Nov/07
Sep/07
Jul/07
May/07
Mar/07
Jan/07
Nov/06
Sep/06
Jul/06
;<=/#>,&-*)/#/.>4.(#.(#0.'2?'%)* 2.#34.2*
PMI Manufacturing: Global
60
58
56
54
52
51.7
50
50.2
48
46
44
45.4
42
32
J%0K"I
M4'K"I
L.-K"I
J%0K""
M4'K""
L.-K""
J%0K"H
M4'K"H
L.-K"H
J%0KHG
M4'KHG
L.-KHG
J%0KHC
M4'KHC
L.-KHC
J%0KHF
M4'KHF
L.-KHF
J%0KHO
M4'KHO
L.-KHO
J%0KHE
M4'KHE
L.-KHE
J%0KHN
M4'KHN
L.-KHN
J%0KHD
M4'KHD
L.-KHD
"HF
J%0KHI
M4'KHI
L.-KHI
J%0KH"
M4'KH"
L.-KH"
J%0KHH
!"#$% &'()*)"$+,-$(./"0
='@%)& 2.#4(* 0.'2?'%)* 2.#34.2* '*
78&24A:& )'24/08)*,B
!"#'12(3/4,5()#'623)" !"#$% )7 &'()*)"$+-$(./"0 8,9:
"H"
""I
GG
$P
+.8(*'Q
PR
GF
GE
"HI
GD
G"
GF
CG
GI
CF
CE
CF
CD
M*7:&#.(#34.2*#*%.'04*2*SSS
Japan Industrial Production Index
115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
V4>K"I
W.%K""
V78K""
V4>K"H
W.%KHG
V78KHG
V4>KHC
W.%KHF
V78KHF
V4>KHO
W.%KHE
V78KHE
V4>KHN
W.%KHD
V78KHD
V4>KHI
W.%KH"
V78KH"
V4>KHH
W.%KGG
V78KGG
V4>KGC
W.%KGF
V78KGF
V4>KGO
W.%KGE
V78KGE
"IH
V4>KGN
W.%KGD
V78KGD
V4>KGI
W.%KG"
V78KG"
V4>KGH
W.%KCG
V78KCG
V4>KCC
;/",<=,>?@@
PT#0*(-U(
9A,!"#$%,)7,!"#'12(3/4,5()#'623)"
""E
""H
"HE
"HH
GE
X8./%)(.'0&#>,&-*,#./01#'&#'@9.,#(*)/#-*)Y&#2./2.#*#8.%47.8*A:&#2*#%8)/.S##J'2.5#'&#
>81Z)%&#*-*)Y&5#7&2.(&/#9.8#&/#.Z.)0&/#2&#[$I5#\])/05#^\_J"5I5#V//.0 ;48%6*/./5#.0%SSS##
;&,@0)%*#(&'.018)*#Z4'%)&'&4#'&#78)(.)8&#(&(.'0&#.#./01#.Y*48)2*S##$Z.)0&/#6&`.#
*7.'*/#/&-8.#*0)9&/#a0.(7&8*8)*(.'0.b#.#':&#/&-8.#*#.%&'&()*#8.*,
Global GDP Growth
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
0.98
1.00
0.00
-1.00
-2.00
Average
-3.00
-4.00
R.7K"I
M4'K"I
<*8K"I
W.%K""
R.7K""
M4'K""
<*8K""
W.%K"H
R.7K"H
M4'K"H
<*8K"H
W.%KHG
R.7KHG
M4'KHG
<*8KHG
W.%KHC
R.7KHC
M4'KHC
<*8KHC
W.%KHF
R.7KHF
M4'KHF
<*8KHF
CD3"/,!"#'12(3/4,5()#'623)",8,-E5,0)0
"C
"I
"O
""
"N
"H
"I
G
"H
C
C
F
!5
O
-E5
O
N
E
>27#Q&Q
IH
W.%KHO
R.7KHO
M4'KHO
<*8KHO
W.%KHE
R.7KHE
M4'KHE
<*8KHE
3B,0)0
X8./%)(.'0&#X6)'?/#/.#
(&9.4#7*8*#4(#'&9&#7*0*(*8
"D
X&'/4(&#2.#.'.8>)*#.,U08)%*#'*#X6)'*#/4>.8.#34.#&#
2./*34.%)(.'0&#2*#.%&'&()*#U#(*)/#Z&80.#2&#34.#
/4>.8.(#&/#2*2&/#&Z)%)*)/
50%
China Electricity Production (Termo+Hydro+Nuclear)
40%
30%
yoy
20%
10%
7.1%
0%
-10%
-20%
I"HHHH
"GHHHH
"FHHHH
"EHHHH
"DHHHH
""HHHH
GHHHH
F)4'.$,,,GG H3443)",I)"1,B$(,AH,,,,0)0
CD3"/,J($3KD2,L)4'.$,M/34N/01
IFHHHH
IESHd
IEHHHH
IHSHd
FHHHH
<*8KGH
M4,KG"
c&9KGI
<*8KGN
M4,KGE
c&9KGO
<*8KGC
M4,KGG
c&9KHH
<*8KHI
M4,KHD
c&9KHN
<*8KHO
M4,KHF
c&9KHC
<*8K"H
M4,K""
V78K""
c&9KHG
M4,KHC
L.-KHF
R.7KHE
V78KHN
c&9KHI
M4,KH"
L.-KHH
R.7KGC
V78KGF
c&9KGE
M4'KGN
M*'KGD
V4>KG"
<*8KGH
F)4'.$,,,GG H3443)",I)"1,B$(,AH
[4.2*#'*#(&9)(.'0*A:&#2.#%*8>*#'*/#Z.88&9)*/#
%6)'./*/#(&/08*#34.#&#2./*34.%)(.'0&#U#>8*9.
CD3"/,J($3KD2,L)4'.$,M/34N/01,0)0
IDHHHH
"ESHd
"HSHd
ESHd
HSHd
KESHd
K"HSHd
K"ESHd
M4'K"I
L.-K"I
J%0K""
M4'K""
L.-K""
J%0K"H
M4'K"H
L.-K"H
J%0KHG
M4'KHG
L.-KHG
J%0KHC
M4'KHC
L.-KHC
J%0KHF
M4'KHF
L.-KHF
J%0KHO
M4'KHO
L.-KHO
J%0KHE
M4'KHE
L.-KHE
J%0KHN
M4'KHN
L.-KHN
J%0KHD
M4'KHD
L.-KHD
-$(./"0,-E5,8,O$N,P(#$(1,7)(,!"#'12(3/4,5()#'623)"
DH
IH
"H
H
K"
K"H
KI
KIH
KD
c.]#J82.8/
KN
KDH
+W;
KE
KNH
KO
KF
KEH
KC
-E5
NH
J%0KHI
M4'KHI
L.-KHI
J%0KH"
M4'KH"
L.-KH"
O$N,,P(#$(1,7)(,!5
V#V,.(*'6*#%&'0)'4*#%*()'6*'2&#7*8*#4(*#8.%.//:&5#
%&(&#&#2*2&/#2.#!"# $%&"%' /4>.8.(
O
E
N
D
I
"
H
J%0K"I
V4>K"I
M4'K"I
V78K"I
L.-K"I
W.%K""
J%0K""
V4>K""
M4'K""
V78K""
L.-K""
W.%K"H
J%0K"H
V4>K"H
M4'K"H
V78K"H
L.-K"H
W.%KHG
J%0KHG
V4>KHG
"DH
M4'KHG
V78KHG
L.-KHG
W.%KHC
J%0KHC
V4>KHC
M4'KHC
V78KHC
L.-KHC
W.%KHF
CH
J%0KHF
V4>KHF
M4'KHF
V78KHF
L.-KHF
=LJ#2*#V,.(*'6*e#f18)&/#(././#%&'/.%40)9&/#2.#
34.2*#%&'Z)8(*(#&#%.'18)&#8.%.//)9&
!JP,-$(./"0
"IH
""H
"HFSD
"HH
"HH
GH
GDSI
=LJ#g4/)'.//#X,)(*0.
=LJ#X488.'0#V//.//(.'0
=LJ#$Y7.%0*0)&'/
FH
R.7K"I
<*QK"I
M*'K"I
R.7K""
<*QK""
M*'K""
R.7K"H
<*QK"H
M*'K"H
R.7KHG
<*QKHG
M*'KHG
R.7KHC
<*QKHC
M*'KHC
R.7KHF
<*QKHF
M*'KHF
R.7KHO
<*QKHO
M*'KHO
R.7KHE
<*QKHE
M*'KHE
R.7KHN
<*QKHN
M*'KHN
R.7KHD
<*QKHD
M*'KHD
R.7KHI
<*QKHI
M*'KHI
R.7KH"
<*QKH"
0)0
X&'01>)&#2&#2./*34.%)(.'0&#/.#21#9)*#%&(U8%)&#)'0.8'*%)&'*,S#
_)0(&#2.#34.2*#'*/#.Y7&80*Ah./#>,&-*)/#
0.(#/.#*78&Z4'2*2&#'&/#i,0)(&/#(././S#
Q)(4#,&%B)(2,-()N2D,M/2$
NHSH
DHSH
IHSH
"HSH
HSH
HSE
K"HSH
KIHSH
KDHSH
!I#_.%.//:&#+,&-*,#/.81#(*)/#7.8)>&/*S#
L&8(4,*2&8./#2.#7&,@0)%*#.%&'j()%*#0?(#7&4%&/#
)'/084(.'0&/#7*8*#%&(-*0.8#*#%8)/.
Oct-12
Jun-12
Feb-12
4
Oct-11
5
Jun-11
Feb-11
Oct-10
Jun-10
Feb-10
Oct-09
Jun-09
Feb-09
Oct-08
Jun-08
Feb-08
Oct-07
Jun-07
Feb-07
Oct-06
Jun-06
Feb-06
Oct-05
Jun-05
Feb-05
Oct-04
Jun-04
Feb-04
Oct-03
Jun-03
Feb-03
;8)'%)7*)/#g*'%&/#X.'08*)/#2&#<4'2&#`1#,.9*8*(#
*/#/4*/#0*Y*/#&9.8')>60#7*8*#7.80&#2.#k.8&SSS
Overnight Policy Rates for Major Central Banks
6
ECB
Fed
BoJ
BoE
3
2
1
0
SSS#V,U(#2.#.Y7*'/h./#34*'0)0*0)9*/#34.#(*)/#2&#
34.#08)7,)%*8*(#&/#()*)+,"-./""0'-2&/#78)'%)7*)/#
-*'%&/#%.'08*)/#'&/#i,0)(&/#*'&/
&CR,8,J&E,R/4/"6$,:D$$21
DEHH
DEHH
DHHH
DHHH
L$W#a4/2b
&9M,8,9:E,R4"1
IEHH
IEHH
$Xg#a.48b
IHHH
IHHH
"EHH
"EHH
"HHH
"HHH
EHH
EHH
H
c&9KGG
H
c&9KHH
c&9KH"
c&9KHI
c&9KHD
c&9KHN
c&9KHE
c&9KHO
c&9KHF
c&9KHC
c&9KHG
c&9K"H
c&9K""
c&9K"I
J%0K"I
R.7K"I
V4>K"I
M4,K"I
M4'K"I
<*QK"I
V78K"I
<*8K"I
L.-K"I
M*'K"I
W.%K""
c&9K""
J%0K""
R.7K""
V4>K""
M4,K""
M4'K""
<*QK""
V78K""
-)4#+R)"#+,:85
-)4#
:85
R)"#
"FHH
"EHH
"IN
"NHH
"II
"DHH
"IH
"IHH
""C
""HH
""O
"HHH
""N
S)"#
IHHH
L.-K""
<*8K""
M*'K""
W.%K"H
c&9K"H
J%0K"H
"CHH
R.7K"H
"GHH
V4>K"H
M4,K"H
M4'K"H
<*QK"H
V78K"H
L.-K"H
<*8K"H
:85,8,P'()
[$De#;8&9*#2.#34.#*#7&,@0)%*#(&'.018)*#
./01#.Y*48)2*S#c.(#&#J48&#/4-)4l
"DO
"DN
"DI
"DH
"OHH
"IC
"IO
\*Y*/#,&'>*/#0*(-U(#./0:&#%&(78)()2*/5#%&(#0*Y*/#2.#`48&/#
8.*)/#'.>*0)9*/S#[$#7*8*#%&(-*0.8#2.Z,*A:&#U#%&)/*#2&#7*//*2&#
a9.8#IHHC#'&#>81Z)%&b
9:,I($/1'(0T,;'(),M$/4,U,&%B,!"74/VW)
OSHH
ESEH
_.*,#='0.8./0#_*0.
ESHH
$Y7.%0.2#='Z,*0)&'
NSEH
NSHH
DSEH
DSHH
ISEH
ISHH
"SEH
"SHH
HSEH
HSHH
KHSEH
c&9K"I
R.7K"I
M4,K"I
<*QK"I
<*8K"I
M*'K"I
c&9K""
R.7K""
M4,K""
<*QK""
<*8K""
M*'K""
c&9K"H
R.7K"H
M4,K"H
<*QK"H
<*8K"H
M*'K"H
c&9KHG
R.7KHG
M4,KHG
<*QKHG
<*8KHG
M*'KHG
c&9KHC
R.7KHC
M4,KHC
<*QKHC
<*8KHC
M*'KHC
c&9KHF
R.7KHF
M4,KHF
<*QKHF
<*8KHF
K"SHH
[4.(#%&(78*#PR#\8.*/#"H#*'&/#*#"5OdB#g*'%&/#
X.'08*)/#0?(#(*)/#2.#EHd#2&#./0&34.#2.#2@9)2*#
*(.8)%*'*S#L.2 9.(#%&(78*'2&#%*2*#9.k#(*)/
9:,I($/1'(0,E$S2
"I5HHH
""5HHH
L.2#m&,2)'>/#&Z#PR#\8.*/
"H5HHH
G5HHH
L&8.)>'#Xg/#m&,2)'>/#&Z#PR#\8.*/
C5HHH
PR#\8.*/48Q#\&0*,#W.-0
F5HHH
O5HHH
E5HHH
N5HHH
D5HHH
I5HHH
"5HHH
R.7K"I
M4'K"I
<*8K"I
W.%K""
R.7K""
M4'K""
<*8K""
W.%K"H
R.7K"H
M4'K"H
<*8K"H
W.%KHG
R.7KHG
M4'KHG
<*8KHG
W.%KHC
R.7KHC
M4'KHC
<*8KHC
W.%KHF
R.7KHF
M4'KHF
<*8KHF
W.%KHO
R.7KHO
M4'KHO
<*8KHO
W.%KHE
R.7KHE
M4'KHE
<*8KHE
W.%KHN
R.7KHN
M4'KHN
<*8KHN
H
;&,@0)%*#L)/%*,#U#%&'08*%)&')/0*#'&#PRS##
X&80.#Z)/%*,#Z&)#2.#(*)/#2.#Dd#2&#;=g#'&/#i,0)(&/#I#*'&/S
L)/%*,#X,)ZZ#a*)'2*#34.#*0.'4*2&b#2.9.#*%.,.8*8#.//*#%&'08*A:&
9:,J316/4,E$73632,\Y,)7,-E5]
[Y
XY
@Y
G[Y
GZY
KFSHNd
G=Y
G?@Y
K"HSIOd
<*QK"I
c&9K""
<*QK""
c&9K"H
<*QK"H
c&9KHG
<*QKHG
c&9KHC
<*QKHC
c&9KHF
<*QKHF
c&9KHO
<*QKHO
c&9KHE
<*QKHE
c&9KHN
<*QKHN
c&9KHD
<*QKHD
c&9KHI
<*QKHI
c&9KH"
<*QKH"
c&9KHH
<*QKHH
c&9KGG
<*QKGG
c&9KGC
<*QKGC
c&9KGF
<*QKGF
c&9KGO
G?XY
<*QKGO
Y,)7,-E5
GXY
L.-K"I
R.7K""
V78K""
c&9K"H
M4'K"H
M*'K"H
V4>KHG
<*8KHG
J%0KHC
<*QKHC
W.%KHF
M4,KHF
L.-KHF
R.7KHO
V78KHO
c&9KHE
M4'KHE
M*'KHE
V4>KHN
<*8KHN
J%0KHD
<*QKHD
W.%KHI
M4,KHI
L.-KHI
R.7KH"
V78KH"
c&9KHH
M4'KHH
M*'KHH
V4>KGG
<*8KGG
Y,)7,K#B
c*#$48&7*5#%&'08*A:&#Z)/%*,#
%&'/&,)2*2*#Z&)#2.#(*)/#2.#Dd#2&#;=g
&'()*)"$,R'#K$2,R/4/"6$
?
@
G?
GX
G`
G[
G_
GZ
G^
G=
G<
!D#X&(&#.//.#%.'18)&#
)'0.8'*%)&'*,#*Z.0*#&#g8*/),B
aVb#=(7*%0&#'&#,*2&#8.*,#2*#.%&'&()*e#
$Y7&80*Ah./#-8*/),.)8*/#%8./%.8*(#(*)/#2.#DHd#Q&Q#'&/#
*'&/#7n/K%8)/.S#X8./%)(.'0&#*>&8*#U#2.#K"Hd#Q&QS
Brazil Exports Growth Rate
yoy 6 mths ma
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
[4.2*#'*/#.Y7&80*Ah./#-8*/),.)8*/#*Z.0*#0*'0&#
,1221&303"'5#%&(&#&#()'U8)&#2.#Z.88&SSS
Brazil Exports
47,000
41,817
42,000
Iron
37,000
32,000
34,040
Metalurgic Products
27,000
22,000
17,000
12,000
7,000
2,000
Mar 2010
12,060
15,878
Sep/12
May/12
Jan/12
Sep/11
May/11
Jan/11
Sep/10
May/10
Jan/10
Sep/09
May/09
Jan/09
Sep/08
May/08
Jan/08
Sep/07
May/07
Jan/07
Sep/06
May/06
Jan/06
Sep/05
May/05
Jan/05
Sep/04
May/04
Jan/04
Sep/03
May/03
Jan/03
Sep/02
May/02
Jan/02
Sep/01
May/01
SSS#[4*'0&#*#)'2i/08)*5#9)*#.Y7&80*Ah./#2.#*40&(n9.)/#
a-*88.)8*/#%&(.8%)*)/#*8>.'0)'*/b
78,000
Brazil Vehicles Exports -- Units
68,000
58,000
48,000
38,000
28,000
18,000
8,000
;.8Z&8(*'%.#84)(#2*#)'2i/08)*#U#4(#Z.'j(.'&#>,&-*,#.#
':&#*7.'*/#2&#g8*/),S#R.0&8#)'24/08)*,#-8*/),.)8&#0.(#
(4)0*/#%&'.Yh./#%&(#*#.%&'&()*#>,&-*,
5()#'VW),!"#'12(3/4,1/T,R(/134,$,.a#3/,K4)S/4
""HSHH
"DE
"DH
"HESHH
"IE
-4)S/4,!5
""E
GESHH
""H
"HE
GHSHH
"HH
+,&-*#=;#
g8*/),#=;
R.7o"I
<*Qo"I
M*'o"I
R.7o""
<*Qo""
M*'o""
R.7o"H
<*Qo"H
M*'o"H
R.7oHG
<*QoHG
M*'oHG
R.7oHC
<*QoHC
M*'oHC
R.7oHF
<*QoHF
M*'oHF
R.7oHO
<*QoHO
M*'oHO
R.7oHE
<*QoHE
M*'oHE
R.7oHN
<*QoHN
M*'oHN
R.7oHD
<*QoHD
GE
M*'oHD
CESHH
R(/134,!5
"IH
"HHSHH
agb#=(7*%0&#'*#='Z,*A:&e#
X.'18)&#+,&-*,#*)'2*#U#2.#2./)'Z,*A:&#*#,&'>&#78*k&S##
V#%480&#78*k&#0.(&/#&#.Z.)0&#2&#%6&34.#*>8@%&,*#.#2./9*,&8)k*A:&#2&#
_.*,
-4)S/4,!"74/23)",8,R(/*34,!5Cb
CSHH
+,&-*,#='Z,*0)&'
FSHH
=;XV
OSHH
ESHH
NSHH
DSCG
DSHH
J%0K"I
V4>K"I
M4'K"I
V78K"I
L.-K"I
W.%K""
J%0K""
V4>K""
M4'K""
V78K""
L.-K""
W.%K"H
J%0K"H
V4>K"H
M4'K"H
V78K"H
L.-K"H
W.%KHG
J%0KHG
V4>KHG
M4'KHG
V78KHG
L.-KHG
W.%KHC
J%0KHC
V4>KHC
M4'KHC
V78KHC
L.-KHC
W.%KHF
J%0KHF
V4>KHF
M4'KHF
V78KHF
L.-KHF
W.%KHO
ISHH
J%0KHO
0)0
ESNE
;&8#34.#*#)'Z,*A:&#'&#g8*/),#
/.#(&9.#.(#,)'6*#%&(#*#)'Z,*A:&#>,&-*,B##
4%)&)5*"' U#&#%&(7&'.'0.#(*)/#9&,10),#2&#=;XVS#
!5Cb,:$(F3V)1,$,P'2()1G Ha2)#),")F)
IHSHHd
"CSHHd
"OSHHd
"NSHHd
"ISHHd
"HSHHd
CSHHd
OSHHd
NSHHd
ISHHd
R.89)A&/
c:&#R.89)A&/
J%0o"I
<*Qo"I
W.%o""
M4,o""
L.-o""
R.7o"H
V78o"H
c&9oHG
M4'oHG
M*'oHG
V4>oHC
<*8oHC
J%0oHF
<*QoHF
W.%oHO
M4,oHO
L.-oHO
R.7oHE
V78oHE
c&9oHN
M4'oHN
M*'oHN
V4>oHD
<*8oHD
J%0oHI
<*QoHI
W.%oH"
M4,oH"
L.-oH"
R.7oHH
V78oHH
c&9oGG
M4'oGG
M*'oGG
HSHHd
aXb#=(7*%0&#Z)'*'%.)8&e#
M48&/#'&#g8*/),5#*7./*8#2&#=JL5#
!"#$%&'(%)#!$*'+#$,!'%-./$&#-$01'+)2$3+#4%+
E!,;/",?^,8,9:,I($/1,?@,0(
"DSOH
DSCH
"DS"D
"ISOO
DSDH
"IS"C
ISCH
""SIN
"HSFF
ISDH
"HSIG
9:,I($/1,?@,0(
"SCH
c;/",?^c
GSCI
GSDE
CSCF
"SDH
CSNH
;/"G?^
'1,2($/1
""SF"
!N#M48&#_.*,#*)'2*#0.(#./7*A&#
7*8*#%*)8e#^*2&#2*#$%&'&()*#_.*,
;.8/7.%0)9*#<*%8&e#[4.2*#2&#`48&#_.*,#*)'2*#':&#/.#
08*24k)4#'4(*#8.0&(*2*#/4/0.'0*2*#2*#*0)9)2*2.
One Year Real Interest Rate vs. Industrial Production
Industrial Production
13%
12%
11%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%
-8%
-9%
-10%
-11%
Dez 2005
Março 2003
Maio 96
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Março 99
9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 14% 15% 16% 17% 18% 19% 20% 21% 22% 23% 24% 25% 26%
One Year Real Interest Rate
V4>K"I
<*QK"I
L.-K"I
c&9K""
V4>K""
<*QK""
L.-K""
c&9K"H
V4>K"H
<*QK"H
L.-K"H
c&9KHG
V4>KHG
<*QKHG
L.-KHG
c&9KHC
V4>KHC
<*QKHC
L.-KHC
c&9KHF
V4>KHF
<*QKHF
L.-KHF
c&9KHO
V4>KHO
<*QKHO
L.-KHO
c&9KHE
V4>KHE
<*QKHE
L.-KHE
c&9KHN
V4>KHN
J%)&/)2*2.#2*#$%&'&()*#*)'2*#7.8()0.%8./%)(.'0&#
/.(#78.//)&'*8#&#(.8%*2&#2.#78&240&S##
5!R,H$"1/4,RC
"EHSH
"NESH
"NHSH
"DESH
"DHSH
"IESH
"IHSH
""ESH
""HSH
"HESH
"HHSH
M4'K""
M4,K"H
V4>KHG
R.7KHC
J%0KHF
c&9KHO
W.%KHE
M*'KHE
L.-KHN
<*8KHD
V78KHI
<*QKH"
M4'KHH
M4,KGG
V4>KGC
R.7KGF
J%0KGO
c&9KGE
W.%KGN
M*'KGN
L.-KGD
<*8KGI
V78KG"
"C
<*QKGH
M4'KCG
M4,KCC
V4>KCF
R.7KCO
J%0KCE
c&9KCN
W.%KCD
M*'KCD
L.-KCI
<*8KC"
Y,)7,4/S)(,7)(6$
<.8%*2&#2.#\8*-*,6&#%&'0)'4*#*7.80*2&S##
<:&K2.KJ-8* U#&#Z*0&8#./%*//&#'&#g8*/),
R(/*34,9"$.B4)0.$"2,M/2$
"O
"N
"I
"H
C
O
N
X*>.2e#X8)*A:&#2.#'&9&/#7&/0&/#2.#08*-*,6&#`1#%*)4#2*#
(U2)*#2.#IHHpo(?/#.(#IH"H#7*8*#CHpo(?/
CAGED Formal Job Creation
300,000
200,000
100,000
(100,000)
(200,000)
(300,000)
(400,000)
(500,000)
(600,000)
(700,000)
!#E#M48&#_.*,#0.(#./7*A&#7*8*#
%*)8e#^*2&#L)'*'%.)8&
$Z.)0&#=JL#'*#_.'2*#L)Y*S#\*Y*#2.#M48&/#'&#7*7.,##-8*/),.)8&#,&'>&#
.(#PRW#*)'2*#U#(.'&8#2&#34.#'&#7*7.,#.(#g_^#)'2.Y*2&#q#
)'Z,*A:&
OIOGR,X@_@,8,R(/*34,X@[?,9:E
OSEH
OSHH
ESHH
NSEH
g8*k),#IHN"#PRW
NSHH
c\cg#IHEH
c&9K"I
J%0K"I
R.7K"I
V4>K"I
M4,K"I
M4'K"I
<*QK"I
V78K"I
<*8K"I
L.-K"I
M*'K"I
W.%K""
c&9K""
J%0K""
R.7K""
V4>K""
M4,K""
M4'K""
<*QK""
V78K""
<*8K""
L.-K""
M*'K""
W.%K"H
c&9K"H
J%0K"H
R.7K"H
V4>K"H
M4,K"H
M4'K"H
DSEH
<*QK"H
03$4#,Y
ESEH
c&9K"I
J%0K"I
R.7K"I
V4>K"I
M4,K"I
M4'K"I
<*QK"I
V78K"I
<*8K"I
L.-K"I
M*'K"I
W.%K""
c&9K""
J%0K""
R.7K""
V4>K""
M4,K""
M4'K""
<*QK""
V78K""
L.-K""
<*8K""
M*'K""
W.%K"H
c&9K"H
J%0K"H
R.7K"H
FSH
V4>K"H
M4,K"H
M4'K"H
<*QK"H
ISE
V78K"H
DSH
L.-K"H
<*8K"H
M*'K"H
b%31,I324$
J'2.#7&2.8)*#./0*8#&#`48&#8.*,#2&#g8*/),#4/*'2&#&#`48&#
8.*,#2&#<UY)%&#%&(&#8.Z.8?'%)*B##"EH#-7/ *-*)Y&
OIOR,X@[_,8,9#3S)")1,H$%,X@[@,U,CE:,E377
OSE
OSH
ESE
ESH
NSE
NSH
NS""
DSE
c\cg#IHNE
ISOOHE"
P2)-&'&/#IHNH#r#XWR#W)ZZ
ISH
<UY)%&e#$,.9*A:&#8.%.'0.#2*#0*Y*#2.#)'Z,*A:&#
Z.k#%&(#34.#*#0*Y*#2.#`48&/#&9.8')>60#Z)%*//.#'.>*0)9*S#
V)'2*#*//)(5#<UY)%&#U#&#78.Z.8)2&#2&/#(.8%*2&/#8.%.'0.(.'0.
H$%36),C$2$1,8,C5!,0)0
DD
DH
IF
C$2$1,PF$("3KD2
IN
I"
C5!,0)0
Y
"C
"E
"I
CSI"
G
FSIO
O
D
DSFO#
DSDD#
M4,K"I
L.-K"I
R.7K""
V78K""
c&9K"H
M4'K"H
M*'K"H
V4>KHG
<*8KHG
J%0KHC
<*QKHC
W.%KHF
M4,KHF
L.-KHF
R.7KHO
V78KHO
c&9KHE
M4'KHE
M*'KHE
V4>KHN
<*8KHN
J%0KHD
<*QKHD
W.%KHI
M4,KHI
L.-KHI
R.7KH"
V78KH"
c&9KHH
M4'KHH
M*'KHH
V4>KGG
<*8KGG
H
!O#;&8#34.#*#.%&'&()*#-8*/),.)8*#':&#%8./%.#
817)2&#(./(&#2.7&)/#2*#34.2*#2.#EIE#-7/
2*#R.,)%B
aVb ='9./0)(.'0&e
M48&#8.*, %480&#%*)4S##M48&#8.*,#,&'>&5#(*)/#8.,.9*'0.#7*8*#
2.0.8()'*8#&#)'9./0)(.'0&5#':&#%*)4#0*'0&
32
Nominal & Real Interest Rates
16
8
7.25
5.49
4
2
Expected IPCA 12 mth fwd
Nominal Rates 12 mths fwd
Expected Real Rates 12 mth fwd
1
1.67
LgXL#s&s
LgXL#.(#"I#(././
M4'K"I
<*8K"I
W.%K""
R.7K""
M4'K""
<*8K""
W.%K"H
R.7K"H
M4'K"H
<*8K"H
W.%KHG
R.7KHG
M4'KHG
<*8KHG
W.%KHC
R.7KHC
M4'KHC
<*8KHC
W.%KHF
R.7KHF
M4'KHF
<*8KHF
W.%KHO
R.7KHO
M4'KHO
<*8KHO
W.%KHE
R.7KHE
M4'KHE
<*8KHE
W.%KHN
R.7KHN
M4'KHN
<*8KHN
W.%KHD
R.7KHD
M4'KHD
<*8KHD
W.%KHI
='9./0)(.'0&#./01#2./*%.,.8*'2&
J)(./VW),R('2/,#$,C/B32/4,J3%)
DESHHd
DHSHHd
IESHHd
IHSHHd
"ESHHd
"HSHHd
ESHHd
HSHHd
KESHHd
K"HSHHd
K"ESHHd
KIHSHHd
W.%oGE
<*QoGO
J%0oGO
<*8oGF
V4>oGF
M*'oGC
M4'oGC
c&9oGC
V78oGG
R.7oGG
L.-oHH
M4,oHH
W.%oHH
<*QoH"
J%0oH"
<*8oHI
V4>oHI
M*'oHD
M4'oHD
c&9oHD
V78oHN
R.7oHN
L.-oHE
M4,oHE
W.%oHE
<*QoHO
J%0oHO
<*8oHF
V4>oHF
M*'oHC
M4'oHC
c&9oHC
V78oHG
R.7oHG
L.-o"H
M4,o"H
W.%o"H
<*Qo""
J%0o""
<*8o"I
='9./0)(.'0&#':&#%&'/.>4)4#/.#Z)8(*8#
'4(#7*0*(*8#*%)(*#2.#IHd#2&#;=g
I/%/,#$,!"F$123.$"2)
aLgXLo;=gb
I"SHd
IHSHd
"GSHd
"CSHd
"FSHd
"OSHd
"ESHd
"NSHd
[4.2* 2&#M48& _.*,#%480& 0.(#34. /.#%&'/&,)2*8
7*8* ,.9*8 *#4(* 34.2* 2&#`48& 8.*,#,&'>&
I/%/,#$,;'()1,M$/4
C
F
O
Y
E
N
s).,2#c\cg#IHEH
D
M48&#_.*,#"#*'&#(.2)*#(n9.,#NHH#2)*/
I
M48&#_.*,#"#*'&
"
\./&48& 9*) 8.24k)8 *#.()//:&
2.#c\cKg/#,&'>*/B
;,*'&#V'4*,#2.#L)'*'%)*(.'0&#7*8*#IH"I
;,*'& V'4*,#2.#L)'*'%)*(.'0&
^&'>&#;8*k&
;*80)%)7*A:& 2.#7*7U)/ 2.#t'2)%. 2.#78.A&/
'&#0&0*,#2* 2@9)2* `1 ./01 *%)(* 2.#DEd5#&4
/.`*5#*%)(* 2*#(.0*#2.#%480& .#,&'>& 78*k&S
;.8%.'04*,#2*#2@9)2*#7i-,)%*#)'2.Y*2*#*#@'2)%.#2.#
78.A&/ `1#./01#'&#,)()0.#/47.8)&8 *40&8)k*2&#7.,&#;VL
;.8%.'04*,#2*#2@9)2*#7i-,)%*#%&(#)'2.Y*2&8#78UKZ)Y*2&
`1#./01#'&#%.'08& 2*#-*'2*#*40&8)k*2*#7.,&#;VL
$#*)'2*5#&#78*k&#(U2)&#2&#0&0*,#2*#2@9)2*
./01#*%)(*#2&#0)%6"0 (1Y)(&#7*8*#IH"I
agb#$Y7&80*Ah./#':&#2.7.'2.(#2*#0*Y*#2.#`48&/#
2&(U/0)%*5#(*/#/)(#2*#.%&'&()*#>,&-*,S##
$Y7&80*Ah./#./0:&#%*)'2&#"Nd#Q&Q
Exports & Imports Growth Rate
yoy 6 mths ma
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
Exports
Imports
-40%
aXb#X8U2)0&e#
X8./%)(.'0&#*%.,.8*2&#2&#%8U2)0&#*#7*80)8#2.#IHHI#`1#
*'0.%)7&4#&#%&'/4(&S#;8&-,.(*#*>&8*#U#*#)'*2)(7,?'%)*
C(a#32)e5!R
__d@Y
E"SEd
_@d@Y
NFSNd
NNSDd
NDSOd
[_d@Y
[@d@Y
DFSNd
`_d@Y
DISEd
IGSEd
`@d@Y
IFSHd
INSId
IDSEd
X_d@Y
X@d@Y
?_d@Y
?@d@Y
_d@Y
M4,K"I
V78K"I
M*'K"I
J%0K""
M4,K""
V78K""
M*'K""
J%0K"H
M4,K"H
V78K"H
M*'K"H
J%0KHG
M4,KHG
M*'KHG
V78KHG
J%0KHC
M4,KHC
M*'KHC
V78KHC
J%0KHF
M4,KHF
M*'KHF
V78KHF
J%0KHO
M4,KHO
V78KHO
M*'KHO
J%0KHE
M4,KHE
V78KHE
M*'KHE
J%0KHN
M4,KHN
V78KHN
M*'KHN
J%0KHD
M4,KHD
V78KHD
M*'KHD
@d@Y
X8U2)0&#%8./%.4#.(#(U2)*#Dd#2&#;=g#*&#*'&#'&/#i,0)(&/#"H#*'&/S#
c.//.#(./(&#7.8@&2&5#&#;=g#-8*/),.)8&#%8./%.4#*7.'*/#D5Cd#*&#*'&S#
J4#/.`*5#4(*#8.,*A:&#34*/.#"e"#.'08.#%8./%)(.'0&#2&#;=g#.#2&#%8U2)0&
PIB yoy
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
2.87
3.79
J#.Y.(7,&#2&#(.8%*2&#2.#%*88&/S#
W.#"5E#(),6:&#2.#%*88&/#7*8*#D#(),6h./#7&8#*'&S
b""'/4,C/(,:/4$1
`+_@@+@@@
LmX
^4,*
W),(*
`+@@@+@@@
X+_@@+@@@
X+@@@+@@@
?+_@@+@@@
?+@@@+@@@
_@@+@@@
X@??
X@?@
X@@<
X@@=
X@@^
X@@Z
X@@_
X@@[
X@@`
X@@X
X@@?
X@@@
?<<<
?<<=
?<<^
?<<Z
?<<_
?<<[
?<<`
?<<X
?<<?
?<<@
?<=<
?<==
?<=^
?<=Z
?<=_
?<=[
?<=`
?<=X
?<=?
@
f.'2*/#2.#%*88&/#Z&8*(#)(74,/)&'*2*/#7.,&#%8.2)0&S##
W./%&'0&#2&#=;=#Z&)#4(*#0.'0*0)9*#2.#*'0.%)7*8#*)'2*#
(*)/#&#%&'/4(&#Z4048&
X8U2)0&#7*8*#9.@%4,&/#/*#a<<Db
f.'2*/#2.#9.@%4,&/#a<<Db
R.7o"I
M4'o"I
<*8o"I
W.%o""
R.7o""
M4'o""
<*8o""
W.%o"H
R.7o"H
M4'o"H
<*8o"H
W.%oHG
R.7oHG
M4'oHG
<*8oHG
W.%oHC
R.7oHC
f36$"63/.$"2)1,b"7/F$/
"HHHHHSH
M4'oHC
HSH
<*8oHC
"EHHHHSH
W.%oHF
ISH
R.7oHF
IHHHHHSH
M4'oHF
NSH
<*8oHF
IEHHHHSH
W.%oHO
OSH
R.7oHO
DHHHHHSH
M4'oHO
CSH
<*8oHO
DEHHHHSH
W.%oHE
"HSH
R.7oHE
NHHHHHSH
M4'oHE
"ISH
<*8oHE
C(a#32),B/(/,F$g6'4)1,\Mh,R34Di$1]
C(a#32),B/(/,L$g6'4)1,1/,%,L$"#/1,#$,L$g6'4)1,1/
M4'o"I
L.-o"I
J%0o""
M4'o""
L.-o""
J%0o"H
M4'o"H
L.-o"H
J%0oHG
M4'oHG
L.-oHG
J%0oHC
M4'oHC
L.-oHC
J%0oHF
M4'oHF
L.-oHF
J%0oHO
!"/#3.B4j"63/,\b2(/1)k<@,#3/1]
5J
5;
C
FSE
NSE
F
N
DSE
OSE
D
O
ISE
I
ESE
"SE
E
"
5$11)/,;'(g#36/,\$.,Y]
CSE
M4'oHO
L.-oHO
J%0oHE
M4'oHE
L.-oHE
J%0oHN
M4'oHN
G
L.-oHN
J%0oHD
M4'oHD
L.-oHD
J%0oHI
M4'oHI
L.-oHI
J%0oH"
M4'oH"
L.-oH"
J%0oHH
M4'oHH
5$11)/,Jg136/,\$.,Y]
;&8#34.#&#%8U2)0&#7*8&4#2.#.Y7*'2)85#
*7./*8#2*#34.2*#2.#`48&/B#='*2)(7,?'%)*
OSE
O
ESE
E
g*'%&/#7i-,)%&/#0.'0*(#%&(7.'/*8#*#%&'08*A:&#2.#%8U2)0&#34.#
&%&88.8)*#'&#(&(.'0&#.(#Z4'A:&#2&#.Y*>.8&#*'0.8)&8S##
V)'2*#*//)(5#%&'%.//:&#2.#%8U2)0&#./01#2./*%.,.8*'2&S
NCSHHd
C(a#32),B)(,3"1232'3VW)+,Y,#),2)2/4,"),1312$./,73"/"6$3()
NOSEHd
NESHHd
NDSEHd
NISHHd
NHSEHd
DGSHHd
DFSEHd
DOSHHd
DNSEHd
DDSHHd
R.0&8#;i-S
D"SEHd
R.0&8#;8)9S#c*%
V4>oH"
c&9oH"
L.-oHI
<*QoHI
V4>oHI
c&9oHI
L.-oHD
<*QoHD
V4>oHD
c&9oHD
L.-oHN
<*QoHN
V4>oHN
c&9oHN
L.-oHE
<*QoHE
V4>oHE
c&9oHE
L.-oHO
<*QoHO
V4>oHO
c&9oHO
L.-oHF
<*QoHF
V4>oHF
c&9oHF
L.-oHC
<*QoHC
V4>oHC
c&9oHC
L.-oHG
<*QoHG
V4>oHG
c&9oHG
L.-o"H
<*Qo"H
V4>o"H
c&9o"H
L.-o""
<*Qo""
V4>o""
c&9o""
L.-o"I
<*Qo"I
V4>o"I
DHSHHd
DH
IE
`4,oGO
'&9oGO
(*8oGF
`4,oGF
'&9oGF
(*8oGC
`4,oGC
'&9oGC
(*8oGG
`4,oGG
'&9oGG
(*8oHH
`4,oHH
'&9oHH
(*8oH"
`4,oH"
'&9oH"
(*8oHI
`4,oHI
'&9oHI
(*8oHD
`4,oHD
'&9oHD
(*8oHN
`4,oHN
'&9oHN
(*8oHE
`4,oHE
'&9oHE
(*8oHO
`4,oHO
'&9oHO
(*8oHF
`4,oHF
'&9oHF
(*8oHC
`4,oHC
'&9oHC
(*8oHG
`4,oHG
'&9oHG
(*8o"H
`4,o"H
'&9o"H
(*8o""
`4,o""
'&9o""
(*8o"I
`4,o"I
c*#(*8>.(5#34*/.#FHd#2&#*4(.'0&#2&#
./0&34.#2.#%8U2)0&#9.(#2.#-*'%&/#7i-,)%&/
L/(3/VW),H$"1/4,#),&12)l'$,I)2/4,#$,C(a#32)
DE
;8)9*2&#ac*%)&'*,#r./08*'>.)8&b<<O
;i-,)%&#<<O
IH
"E
"H
E
H
KE
K"H
+8*'2.#7*80)%)7*A:&#2.#-*'%&/#7i-,)%&/#'&#%8U2)0&#*`42*81#*#
40),)k*8#)'/084(.'0&/#':&#08*2)%)&'*)/#2.#7&,@0)%*#(&'.018)*#'&#
Z4048&5#34*'2&#&#gX#2./.`*8#2./*34.%.8#*#.%&'&()*
L/(3/VW),H$"1/4,#),&12)l'$,I)2/4,#$,C(a#32)
"HHd
GHd
CHd
FHd
OHd
EHd
NHd
DHd
IHd
"Hd
;8)9*2&#ac*%)&'*,#r./08*'>.)8&b<<O
;i-,)%&#<<O
R.7o"I
M4'o"I
<*8o"I
W.%o""
R.7o""
M4'o""
<*8o""
W.%o"H
R.7o"H
M4'o"H
<*8o"H
W.%oHG
R.7oHG
M4'oHG
<*8oHG
W.%oHC
R.7oHC
M4'oHC
<*8oHC
W.%oHF
R.7oHF
M4'oHF
<*8oHF
W.%oHO
R.7oHO
M4'oHO
<*8oHO
W.%oHE
R.7oHE
M4'oHE
<*8oHE
W.%oHN
R.7oHN
M4'oHN
<*8oHN
W.%oHD
R.7oHD
Hd
X8U2)0&#78)9*2&#2.#Z*0&#%*)4#.(#9*,&8#
cJ<=cV^#%&'%.2)2&S
&12)l'$,#$,C(a#32),5mS436),$,5(3F/#)
""HH
"HHH
GHH
Mh,R34Di$1
CHH
FHH
OHH
EHH
NHH
DHH
R.0&8#7i-,)%&
R.0&8#;8)9*2&#c*%)&'*,
!F#W.7&)/#2.#.'>.//*8#&#(.8%*2&5#
>&9.8'&#-8*/),.)8&#%&'/.>4)4#
2./9*,&8)k*8#&#_.*,
g_^#2./9*,&8)k&4#(*)/#2&#34.#*/#
(&.2*/#.34)9*,.'0./SSS
Nominal Exchange Rates
Carry Trades
1.20
1.10
1.00
BRL
TREND
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
X&,&%*'2&#%&(&#-*/.#&#7.8@&2&#78U#%8)/.5#&#g_^#
U#4(*#2*/#(&.2*/#(*)/#2./9*,&8)k*2*/
Nominal Exchange Rates
Carry Trades
1.30
1.20
1.10
1.00
0.90
0.80
0.70
0.60
BRL
CAD
ZAR
NZD
AUD
MXN
g_^#/.#2./9*,&8)k&4#(*)/#2&#34.#&#34.#7&2.8)*#/.8#/4>.8)2&#7&8#
4(*#7)&8*#2&/#0.8(&/#2.#08&%*S#R&`*#*0U#0.9.#4(##3+&7)** 6)3+
RMf,8,!"#36$,#$,C)..)#32$1,R(/134,\:)n/Ub6m6/(UJ$(()]
EH
Xd[@
Xd`@
"HH
"EH
Xd?@
Xd@@
IHH
?d<@
IEH
?d=@
?d^@
DHH
X&((&2#g_
DEH
g_^
?dZ@
?d_@
g_^oPRW
!"#36$,C)..)#,R(/134
XdX@
X&((&2)0)./#.(#PRW#9:&#.'08*8#.(#0.'2?'%)*#2.#*,0*#
%&(#*#&'2*#2.#,)34)2.kB#J#34.#7*8.%)*#4(*#0.'2?'%)*#
2.#34.2*#7*8.%.#/.8#*>&8*#4(#%.'18)&#2.#./0*-),)2*2.
"OHH
CMR,8,:85,_@@
NIH
"EHH
NHH
"NHH
DCH
DOH
"DHH
DNH
DIH
DHH
""HH
ICH
"HHH
IOH
GHH
INH
IIH
CHH
FHH
OHH
Ru;#EHH
IHH
"CH
X_g
"OH
X_g
:85,_@@
"IHH
X&(#*#*,0*#2*/#%&((&2)0)./#.(#PRW#.#4(*#2./9*,&8)k*A:&#/)>')Z)%*0)9*#2&#
g_^5#%&((&2)0)./#2.9.(#78.//)&'*8#*#)'Z,*A:&#.(#IH"DS#
W./&'.8*Ah./#9:&#Z*k.8#&#=;XV#Z)%*8#.(#0&8'&#2.#E5Ed
CRB in BRL & IPCA yoy
40%
7.5%
7.2%
30%
6.9%
6.6%
20%
6.3%
10%
6.0%
crb in BRL (sos)
5.4%
-10%
5.1%
4.8%
-20%
4.5%
-30%
-40%
-50%
4.2%
crb in brl
3.9%
ipca yoy
3.6%
3.3%
ipca yoy
5.7%
0%
M4,K"I
L.-K"I
R.7K""
V78K""
c&9K"H
M4'K"H
M*'K"H
V4>KHG
<*8KHG
J%0KHC
<*QKHC
W.%KHF
M4,KHF
L.-KHF
R.7KHO
V78KHO
c&9KHE
M4'KHE
M*'KHE
V4>KHN
<*8KHN
J%0KHD
<*QKHD
W.%KHI
M4,KHI
L.-KHI
R.7KH"
V78KH"
c&9KHH
M4'KHH
M*'KHH
V4>KGG
0)0
X&(7&80*(.'0&#2&#=+;#9/ =;XV#0*(-U(#/4>.8.#.//*#
78.//:&#2.#%&((&2)0)./#5 .(-&8*#./0.`*#7.82.'2&#
Z&8A*#'*#(*8>.(
!-5GH,F1,!5Cb
DE
IH
DH
"C
IE
"O
"N
IH
"I
"E
"H
"H
C
E
^d_X
O
ESNE
N
H
I
KE
H
=+;K<
=;XV
gX#9*)#8.*>)8#q#)'Z,*A:&#2.#,1221&303"'B#
W./*34.%)(.'0&#2*#.%&'&()*#,&%*,#.#8.9)/:&#2*/#0*8)Z*/#2.#
.'.8>)*#9:&#78.//)&'*8#+1+80%)&)5*"' 7*8*#-*)Y&S
!5Cb,:$(F3V)1,$,P'2()1G Ha2)#),")F)
IHSHHd
"CSHHd
"OSHHd
"NSHHd
"ISHHd
"HSHHd
CSHHd
OSHHd
NSHHd
ISHHd
R.89)A&/
c:&#R.89)A&/
J%0o"I
<*Qo"I
W.%o""
M4,o""
L.-o""
R.7o"H
V78o"H
c&9oHG
M4'oHG
M*'oHG
V4>oHC
<*8oHC
J%0oHF
<*QoHF
W.%oHO
M4,oHO
L.-oHO
R.7oHE
V78oHE
c&9oHN
M4'oHN
M*'oHN
V4>oHD
<*8oHD
J%0oHI
<*QoHI
W.%oH"
M4,oH"
L.-oH"
R.7oHH
V78oHH
c&9oGG
M4'oGG
M*'oGG
HSHHd