Solar Outlook Strategic Options for EDP Discussion document

A visão da EDP para a Energia Solar
Conferência ENERGIA 2020
Pedro Neves Ferreira
Director de Planeamento Energético – EDP
[email protected]
Lisboa, 8 de Fevereiro de 2010
Agenda
Visão da energia solar no mundo
Implicações para Portugal
1
Agenda
Visão da energia solar no mundo
Implicações para Portugal
2
Solar power is the most abundant renewable resource on Earth
and current tech could supply ~4X today’s energy consumption
Theoretical potential of renewable sources
Multiples of world primary energy consumption in 1 year
Technically accessible potential of renewables
1
Multiples of world primary energy consumption in 1 year1
0,4
0,2
0,1
5,9
Ocean
Total
0,5
1,0
3,8
Sun
• All renewable energy sources provide more than 3.000
times the current global energy needs
Geo
Wind
Biomass Hydro
• Technically accessible potential is the amount that could
be accessed with currently available technologies and
could provide nearly 6 times current global needs
1. World primary energy consumption in 1 year is estimated at ~130.000 TWh (2005)
Source: EREC/Greenpeace – Energy [r]evolution 2008 citing the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) and Dr. Joachim Nitsch (German Aerospace Center - Institute of
Technical Thermodynamics)
3
World Solar installed capacity has been growing at an accelerating
pace to reach ~17 GW by ‘09, increasingly in grid connected units
World installed capacity
- Annual additions
Installed capacity by application
MW, 1995-2009E
- Cumulative
% of cumulative capacity, 1992-2008
- Grid connected
- Off-grid
- CAGR
Centralized CSP
+ 31%
Centralized PV
Distributed
Grid Connected PV
+ 14%
Off-Grid PV
• Installed capacity growing at accelerating pace, even in
the context of a major crystalline silicon shortage
• With shortage solved, growth is expected to push through
in coming years, after a slowdown in ‘09 due to the crisis
• Rural Off-grid has very high long term growth potential
(developing economies e.g.: China, India, Africa)
Source: EPIA – Solar Generation V, IEA - Photovoltaic Power Systems Programme – 2008 Trends Report, EER - Global CSP Development Strategies 2007-2020, EER Global Renewable
Power Generation Forecasts 2009-2020, Team Analysis
4
By end-2008 Germany had ~35% of total global installed capacity,
while Spain alone accounted for ~50% of new additions in 2008
Top 6 Solar countries – Cumulative capacity
Top 6 Solar countries – Added capacity
MW, 2008
MW, 2008
35%
46%
22%
27%
14%
6%
10%
5%
2%
Only ~150 MW
expected to be
added in 2009
5%
2%
4%
14%
8%
100%
100%
- PV
- CSP
Source: EPIA – 2013 Global Market Outlook for PV, EER – Global CSP Markets and Strategies 2009-2020
5
Solar installed capacity may reach over 175 GW by 2020, mostly
through PV growth
Global Solar installed capacity outlook
GW, 2009-2020
PV – 3,2 duplications until 2020
CSP – 5,0 duplications until 2020
9X
32X
2020 forecast according to different sources
Key
growth
drivers
•
•
•
•
Ability of solar PV industry to maintain historic learning rates
Impact and duration of crisis and level of climate change policies
Relative competitiveness with end-user retail tariffs
Massification of building integrated applications
2020 forecast according to different sources
• Impact and duration of crisis and level of climate change policies
• Evolution of fossil fuel prices and conventional generation costs
• Relative competitiveness with conventional generation
Source: EPIA – Solar Generation V (2008), EREC – Energy Revolution 2008, McKinsey & Co. – Developing a Winning Solar Strategy (Apr08), EER Global Renewable Power Generation
Forecasts 2009-2020, Team analysis
6
Unlike Wind, Solar power generation technologies have not
stabilized around a unique development standard
Wind technology has generally standardized….
Rotor
diameter
(m)
- Mass production
- Prototypes
….while Solar technology has kept diversifying
97%
Solar PV
3%
Solar CSP
86%
~3%
Crystalline
Silicon
Parabolic
Trough
11%
~0%
Thin Films
0%
Central
Tower
0%
CPV
Parabolic
Dish
- Share of world solar installed capacity (2008)
• Stable technological standard generically achieved
• Evolution around scaling and materials cost/resistance
• Multiple radically different technologies in competition
• And new pathways still being developed
(e.g.: organic PV, nano PV, dye sensitized PV)
Source: IEA – Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, McKinsey & Co. – Developing a Winning Solar Strategy (Apr08); EPIA – Solar Generation V 2008; EER – Global CSP Markets and
Strategies (Nov 2007), Team Analysis
7
As a result, Solar tech selection is a key success factor, driven
mostly by local solar resource and application type
Solar technology matrix
Scale
• CSP best option in most
cases
Ground based
Utility
Over 250 kW
• CPV in ground based
applications (requires
trackers)
Large DG
Rooftop or
Groundbased
5 to 250 kW
• Thin Film cheapest option if land is free
• c-Si may be viable alternative
Rooftop /
Building
Integrated
Less than 5kW
• c-Si in space constrained rooftops due to high efficiency
• Thin Film for unconventional building integrated applications
Low Irradiation
Less than 1.400 kWh/m2
Berlin, Paris, New York, London
Medium Irradiation
1.400 to 2.000 kWh/m2
Lisbon, Madrid, Rome, Athens
High Irradiation
Over 2.000 kWh/m2
Arizona, South Spain, North Africa
Geography
Source: Team analysis
8
New manufacturing capacity and the economic crisis have reversed
c-Si shortage, bringing module prices down over 30% since Dec-08
Price history and forward curve for c-Si
c-Si Module price evolution
$/kg of c-Si, 2004-2015E
€/W, 2005-2009
- Jul ‘08 forward curve1
- Oct ‘09 forward
curve1
- c-Si Retail Module price index4
- c-Si Factory Module price index5
c-Si BoS3 prices have also decreased ~20%
to ~1,35 €/W meaning installed System
prices fell from ~4,7 €/W to ~3,2€/W
Supply shortage
-10%
-32%
As a side effect, Thin Film’s recent cost competitiveness relative to c-Si has been reduced
Source: NEF - Silicon Forward Price Index I – 2008/08/14 and Silicon Forward Price Index V – 2009/11/10, SolarBuzz.com, pveXchange.de
1. Median price for all standing forward polysilicon contracts, by year of delivery 2. Spot prices fell from a high of 470 $/kg in March ‘08 to the current value of 60 $/kg as of November ’09
3. BoS – Balance of System 4. SolarBuzz.com - Nov ‘09 5. pveXchange.de – Nov ‘09
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Several sources see cost competitiveness arriving soon, depending
on wholesale and retail prices and location
Drivers for evolution in cost competitiveness
Break-even year
World installed
capacity duplications
PV rooftop
vs retail
rates
Roland Berger
FBR Research
New Energy Finance
Roland
Berger
PV utility
scale vs.
pool
MBIPV
EPIA
Learning rate
Retail rates /
pool price real
increase
CSP vs.
pool
EER
McKinsey & Co.
Source: MBIPV, FBR Research, New Energy Finance, Emerging Energy Research , McKinsey& Co., Roland Berger, Team analysis
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Agenda
Visão da energia solar no mundo
Implicações para Portugal
11
O cumprimento dos objectivos assumidos para 2020 implica
abastecer ~60% do consumo de electricidade a partir de renováveis
Peso de cada sector no consumo
Peso de renováveis por sector
Contribuição de cada sector
% Consumo Final Bruto2
% RES1 por Sector
p.p. de contribuição para RES1 Total
Transportes
Calor e Frio
X
=
(Não Eléctrico)
Electricidade
31%
Corresponde a ~40,4 TWh de
geração renovável em 2020
Objectivo assumido por Portugal
de renováveis em 2020 no âmbito
do Pacote Energia Clima
1. RES – Renewable Energy Sources
2. Os pesos dos sectores não somam 100% devido a efeitos contabilísticos impostos pela Directiva da EU. Ex.: o consumo de energia em Transportes Aéreos e
Marítimos não conta para peso de renováveis no sector Transportes, pelo que não está incluído no peso do sector Transportes, mas contribui para o Consumo Final
Bruto total do país.
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O programa de Governo define uma nova meta de 1.500 MW de
Solar até 2020
Objectivos de potência instalada de Solar em Portugal
MW acumulados, 2008-2020
Possível repartição por tipo de instalação
MW, 2020
- Total (novo objectivo)
- Micro-Geração (objectivo DL 363/2007)
Objectivo anunciado pelo
Governo em Outubro 2009
Centralizado
•CSP
•PV
Objectivo
anunciado pelo
Governo em 2007
Percurso previsto
no DL 363/20071
Distribuído
MW
•Integrado edif.
•Micro rooftop
•Mini rooftop
50
400
200
1. DL 363/2007 prevê 10 MW instalados em 2008 com volume de instalações a aumentar 20% em cada ano até 2015, chegando a 165 MW de PV distribuído
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A geração Solar é um elemento crítico no cumprimento deste
objectivo
Mix de geração renovável em Portugal em 2020
TWh Geração Renovável Bruta, 2020
• 60% de RES-E
• PNBEPH e
Reforços
• Adicional
para chegar
a 8.500 MW
• 1.500 MW @
1.9001 horas
Target
RES-E
Hidro Aj. Eólica Aj.
Outras
Capacidade já instalada 2009
Gap para Grande
Target
Hidro
2020
Mini
Hidro
Eólica
Geotérmica
Ondas Biomassa
Solar
Gap
Restante
Novos acréscimos previstos no programa de Governo
1. Assumindo um mix de tecnologias solares (500 MW CSP @ 2.500 horas + 350 MW PV Centralizado @ 1.850 horas + 650 MW PV Distribuído @1.400 horas)
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Para viabilizar este objectivo, haverá que alterar o enquadramento
regulatório da energia solar
• Desbloquear processo de licenciamento para instalações “utility scale” através da
definição de regras claras e de mercado para a atribuição de potência
• Aumentar potência atribuída para micro-geração
• Fomentar a procura do Estado através de programas de instalação de painéis nos
seus edifícios
• Adequar a actual tarifa à evolução dos custos das tecnologias por forma a controlar o
sobrecusto para os consumidores
• Promover a Investigação e Desenvolvimento em particular para novas tecnologias
não “commoditizadas”
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