De Graaff Stedelijke Voorzieningen

Stedelijke voorzieningen, consumptie
externaliteiten en heterogeniteit
Wie woont waar en waarom?
Thomas de Graaff
Ruimtelijke Economie, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
“Soort zoekt soort: sociaal-economische scheidslijnen in
Nederland”, Amsterdam, 14 juni 2013
Onderzoeksvragen
Onderzoek Waarom zijn er ruimelijke verschillen in
huizenprijzen en lonen?
I Wat verklaart deze verschillen (bijvoorbeeld
locatiefactoren & stedelijke voorzieningen)?
I Is het een probleem?
Beleid Kunnen we de locatiekeuze beïnvloeden?
I Hoe kun je specifieke type huishoudens
aantrekken?
I Zou men dat wel altijd moeten doen?
Wat weten we?
I
Werknemers in grotere steden krijgen meer loon
[Baum-Snow and Pavan, 2012, Roca and Puga, 2012]:
I
I
sectorale en stedelijke agglomeratievoordelen (specialisatie
toe/afleveranciers & spill-over effecten tussen sectoren);
leereffecten van werknemers (werknemers worden sneller
productiever in grotere steden)
I
Sorteereffecten op de arbeidsmarkt minder van belang (itt
[Combes et al., 2008])
I
Echter [de Groot et al., 2010, Bakens et al., 2012]:
I
I
I
huishoudens waarderen stedelijke voorzieningen
(huizenprijzen variëren over locaties)
stedelijke voorzieningen niet homogeen over Nederland
waardering is zeer heterogeen
Achtergrond
I
Consumptiekant en productiekant van een stad moeten
simultaan bekeken worden [Roback, 1982]
I
I
bijvoorbeeld, hoge huizenprijzen kunnen worden bepaald
door hoge lonen en veel stedelijke voorzieningen
Locatiekeuzen van huishoudens tenderen naar een
evenwicht en huishoudens sorteren zichzelf uit over lonen,
stedelijke voorzieningen en huizenprijzen
I
I
I
loon gecorrigeerd voor huizenprijzen en (stedelijke)
voorzieningen is constant (VS)
niet elke gemeente kan een bovengemiddeld aantal
hoogopgeleiden hebben
de relatie tussen huizenprijzen en stedelijke voorzieningen
zegt alleen iets over de huishoudens die in die huizen wonen
Deze presentatie . . .
Gaat nader in op twee deelvragen:
1. wat is de relatie tussen bevolkinggrootte en voorzieningen?
I
I
is er sprake van consumentenexternaliteiten?
is deze relatie eenduidig?
2. zijn er structurele verschillen in voorkeuren tussen
huishoudens?
I
en sorteren huishoudens zich ook uit aan de hand van die
voorkeuren?
Intern versus externe schaalvoordelen
Tabel: Geschatte elasticiteiten voor aantal werknemers en aantal
vestigingen met bevolking
Cafes
Kledingwinkels
Restaurants
Supermarkten
Schoenenwinkels
Bibliotheken
Brandweer
Ziekenhuizen
Theaters
# werknemers in:
# vestigingen van:
0.90
1.56
0.91
1.15
1.56
1.24
1.47
1.47
1.72
0.87
1.31
0.84
0.86
1.21
0.54
0.45
0.45
0.73
Relatie restaurants en bevolking
25000
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Restaurant (10km)
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Restaurant (10km)
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Inwoners (3 km.)
4e+05
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0e+00
2e+05
4e+05
Inwoners (10 km.)
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0
2e+05
6000
6000
●
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●
●
Inwoners (3 km.)
●
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15000
0e+00
Inwoners (10 km.)
●
35000
●
Inwoners (1 km.)
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●
150000
●
●
Inwoners (1 km.)
5000
●
●
●
●
●
●
4000
●●
●●
100000
●
●●
●
2000
●
●
●
Restaurant (3km)
●
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Restaurant (3km)
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2000
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6000
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Restaurant (3km)
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●
●
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Inwoners (1 km.)
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●
●
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0
15000
●
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150000
10000
5000
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Restaurant (1km)
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6000
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0e+00
2e+05
4e+05
Inwoners (10 km.)
Verschillen in aanbod restaurants
Verschillende voorkeuren van huishoudens
I
Dataset: huizenprijzen, gemeentelijke basisadministratie &
belastinggegevens
I
koppling van karakteristieken op huis- en arbeidsmarkt
I
voor vier verschillende homogene groepen...
Voorkeuren per groep
Groepsvoorkeuren verschillen onder andere in:
Variable
Baandichtheid
Hist. centrum
Loon
Groep 1
Huizenprijs
0.03∗∗∗
(0.01)
−0.00
(0.02)
Significantie niveaus
0.21∗∗∗
(0.01)
−0.01
(0.02)
∗ : 10%
Loon
Groep 2
Huizenprijs
0.05∗∗∗
(0.01)
−0.03
(0.03)
∗∗ : 5%
0.10∗∗∗
(0.02)
0.11∗∗∗
(0.03)
∗ ∗ ∗ : 1%
Loon
Groep 3
Huizenprijs
0.04∗∗∗
(0.01)
0.00
(0.02)
0.16∗∗∗
(0.01)
0.08∗∗∗
(0.02)
Loon
Groep 4
Huizenprijs
0.05∗∗
(0.02)
0.10∗∗
(0.04)
0.14∗∗∗
(0.01)
0.11∗∗∗
(0.02)
Hoe verschillen de groepen gemiddeld
Groep 1
Groep 2
Groep 3
Groep 4
Verdeling
27%
17%
47%
9%
JaarLoon
Huizenprijs per m2
Man
Leeftijd
Werkt in 4 grootste st.
Leeft in 4 grootste st.
Hoogopgeleid
Getrouwd
Met kinderen
Werkt in:
Commerciële dienstv.
Educatie
Gezondheidszorg
28,278
1,649
50%
32
23%
16%
59%
31%
25%
39,314
1,884
50%
31
26%
17%
64%
29%
24%
39,318
2,175
52%
33
26%
16%
68%
34%
29%
76,434
2,983
55%
36
36%
22%
70%
43%
38%
23%
12%
18%
24%
10%
16%
24%
11%
18%
30%
8%
13%
Groep 1: ruimtelijke spreiding
(a) Wonen
(b) Werken
Groep 2: ruimtelijke spreiding
(c) Wonen
(d) Werken
Groep 3: ruimtelijke spreiding
(e) Wonen
(f) Werken
Groep 4: ruimtelijke spreiding
(g) Wonen
(h) Werken
Ter afsluiting . . .
I
Interne schaalvoordelen zijn significant groter dan externe
schaalvoordelen;
I
fundamentele gemeentelijke verschillen in de relatie tussen
voorzieningen en bevolking;
I
huishoudens hebben verschillende voorkeuren
I
en lijken zich uit te sorteren naar over die gemeenten die
het beste passen bij hun voorkeuren;
I
wat uiteindelijk toch lijkt te resulteren in ruimtelijk verdeelde
homogene groepen.
Geselecteerde referenties I
Bakens, J., Mulder, P., and Nijkamp, P. (2012).
Economic Impacts of Cultural Diversity in the Netherlands: Productivity, Utility,
and Sorting.
Baum-Snow, N. and Pavan, R. (2012).
Understanding the City Size Wage Gap.
Review of Economic Studies, 79(1):88–127.
Combes, P. P., Duranton, G., and Gobillon, L. (2008).
Spatial wage disparities: Sorting matters!
Journal of Urban Economics, 63(2):723–742.
de Groot, H., Marlet, G., Teulings, C. N., and Vermeulen, W. (2010).
City and countryside.
Roback, J. (1982).
Wages, rents and the quality of life.
Journal of Political Economy, 90(6):1257–1278.
Roca, J. D. and Puga, D. (2012).
Learning by working in big cities.