A actual mudança climática no contexto da relação

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From T.E.
Graedel and
P.J. Crutzen,
1993
This figure shows climate change over the last 65 million years.
The data are based on a compilation of oxygen isotope measurements (!18O)
on benthic foraminifera by Zachos et al. (2001)
From R.C. Wilson et al., 2000
Past and future Milankovitch
cycles. VSOP allows prediction
of past and future orbital
parameters with great accuracy.
" is obliquity (axial tilt). e is
eccentricity. # is longitude of
perihelion. esin(#) is the
precession index, which
together with obliquity, controls
the seasonal cycle of insolation.
Q is the calculated daily-averaged
insolation at the top of the
atmosphere, on the day of the
summer solstice at 65 N latitude.
http://aom.giss.nasa.gov/srorbpar.html
From J. Imbrie
et al., 1984
-  A precessão, com um ciclo de cerca de 20000 anos, muda a
estação do ano em que a Terra está mais próxima do Sol
(periélio)
-  Consequentemente a precessão afecta a distribuição ou
sazonalidade da radiação solar recebida e não a quantidade
total anual dessa radiação.
-  Quando o periélio se dá no verão boreal a radiação recebida
é cerca de 15% superior relativamente ao periélio no inverno
boreal
A monção em África
caracteriza-se por verões
húmidos e invernos secos
e determina a distribuição
geográfica da vegetação e
dos ecossistemas
Quando o movimento
de precessão provoca
verões boreais mais
quentes (tal como, por
exemplo, há 9000 anos) a
monção estival torna-se
mais forte e a África acima
do equador mais húmida
Os períodos húmidos
de África ocorreram
com uma periodicidade
de cerca de 20000 anos,
correspondente ao ciclo
da precessão
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CHINA
Reconstituição da evolução da
temperatura média global da
baixa atmosfera, representada
por meio da anomalia
relativamente à média do
período de 1961 a 1990, e da
concentração atmosférica do
CO2 nos últimos 400 000 anos
(Petit, 1999). Figura adaptada
de EEA, 2004. Repare-se na
correlação que se observa
entre os dois registos. O
aumento da concentração do
CO2 a partir da revolução
industrial e até ao presente está
indicado por um vector
aproximadamente vertical
devido à escala de tempo
utilizada na figura
Fonte, Petit et al., 1999
Curva de Keeling de Mauna Loa
+"*,)-&-.))<&VjFg||HHHI9:4AI=311IE3X|E;8|323F|;A3|&&
Nova Análise da Temperatura Média Global da Atmosfera
à Superfície nos Continentes. Uma Confirmação do
Aquecimento Global pelos Cépticos (BEST – Berkeley
Earth Surface Temperature)
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^94b9A9a&%145V<&VjFg||HHHI294b9A9a9145VI34E&
Resultados do Projecto BEST
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•  #3E1475;3&81&
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Robust Warming Signal over the Last 30 Years
When the data are adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term
temperature variations (El Niño/southern oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability),
the global warming signal becomes even more evident as noise is reduced.“
(Foster & Rahmstorf 2011, ERL)
Source: R.A. Kerr, Science, 2012, 337, 1591,
28 September 2012
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Precipitation in Southern Europe/ Mediterranean Region,
IPCC WGI
Climate scenarios based on
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)
Efeito dos Actuais Compromissos de redução das
Emissões
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Global Mean Sea Level: A Semi-Empirical Approach
FP7 EU PROJECT at SIM – CCIAM Research Center
BASE - Bottom-up Climate Adaptation Strategies
towards a Sustainable Europe
Start date: November 2012 | End Date: 2015
FP7 Env.2012.6.1-3 Total grant: 5.900.000 $
The Bottom-up Climate Adaptation Strategies towards a Sustainable Europe (BASE)
project will address the need for research on sustainable climate adaptation strategies,
which promote interactions between bottom-up and top-down assessments.
The intention is to evaluate the environmental, social and economic impacts,
the costs and benefits, policy coherence and stakeholder perceptions of different
climate adaptation pathways from an interdisciplinary perspective. The findings
from BASE will feed into the European Clearing House Mechanism (CHM) portal
and adaptation support tools for policy development.
From the CCIAM Research Group
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Economic Impacts of Extreme Weather Events
Much of the information we have about the economic impacts of
extreme weather events comes from data on insured losses
complied by insurance industry. In the preparation of this report
we have benefited from analysis of a particular data set, held by
the Munich Re company in its NatCat Service, comprising about
30,000 data sets of individual loss events caused by natural
hazards. This analysis shows that in general, the frequency of
weather-related loss events has increased significantly at a global
level, in contrast with losses from geophysical hazards such as
earthquakes or tsunamis, which have shown only a slight increase.
In Europe the increase in loss events from extreme weather events
has been about 70% since the 1980s. This is low compared with the
number of loss events suffered in other continents which in the case
of North America are now 3.7 times the numbers of the early 1980s.
Of theses loss events registered in teh NatCatService database, the
great majority (91%) are from extreme weather and of these most
(75%) are from storms and floods..
The pattern of loss events varies across Europe, with larger numbers
in the UK and West-Central Europe and lower numbers in
Scandinavia and Northern Europe. In Southern Europe, heatwaves,
droughts and wild-fires are the most numerous events, in Western
and Central Europe floods and storms predominate.
NatCatSERVICE
Natural catastrophes worldwide 1980 – 2011
Overall and insured losses with trend
(bn US$)
Overall losses (in 2011 values)
Insured losses (in 2011 values)
Trend overall losses
Trend insured losses
© 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at January 2012
74
NatCatSERVICE
Natural catastrophes in Portugal 1980 – 2011
Percentage distribution
107 loss events
3,000 fatalities*
*Heat wave 2003: 2,500 fatalities
Overall losses** US$ 6,900m
Insured losses** US$ 160m
**in 2011 values
Storm and flood only
**in 2011 values
Geophysical events
(Earthquake, tsunami,
volcanic eruption)
Meteorological events
(Storm)
Hydrological events
(Flood, mass
movement)
© 2012 Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE – As at April 2012
Climatological events
(Extreme temperature,
drought, wildfire)
76
The economic loss burden has been considerable, with an
estimated loss of Euros 460 billion since 2008 (2011 values). The
most costly hazards have been storms and floods, amounting to a
combined total of over Euros 300 billion.
Weather events have also been responsible for considerable loss of
life in Europe, estimated at around 140,000 lives lost since 1980.
The largest impacts on life have come from heatwaves such as
those of central Europe in 2003.
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Conclusões
•  Em média irá chover entre menos 28% (A2) e 19% (B2) no final do século
•  As temperaturas máxima e mínima irão aumentar entre 3ºC (A2) e 2ºC
(B2) no final do século
•  Extremos de calor irão aumentar no final do século e os extremos de frio
diminuir
•  Nos meses de Maio, Junho e Outubro haverá um maior aumento da
temperatura máxima e mínima
•  Nestes meses a temperatura máxima irá aumentar mais de 4ºC no final do
século para o cenário A2
•  Para a temperatura mínima o aumento é mais homogéneo ao nível dos
meses, mas haverá um aumento ligeiramente maior nos meses de
Fevereiro, Maio e Junho
Conclusões
•  Em geral haverá um aumento da precipitação nos meses de Março, Julho
e Agosto e uma diminuição nos restantes meses no final do século
•  O aumento da precipitação no Verão será maior no litoral do que no
interior
•  No Inverno o aumento da temperatura máxima será ligeiramente inferior
no interior
•  No Verão o aumento da temperatura máxima irá ser menor no interior,
com excepção das terra altas e no interior sul da área de estudo
•  O aumento da temperatura mínima no Inverno será maior na zona central
da área de estudo com tendência para o litoral
•  No Verão a temperatura mínima irá aumentar mais na zona interior do
país, principalmente nas terra altas