Brazil

GERMAN BRAZILIAN ECONOMIC MEETING
2010
Panel II – Plenary Session: Energy Efficiency
Munich, Germany, May 31st 2010
José Miguez
General Coordinator on Global Climate Change
Ministry of Science and Tecnology
GHG Emissions
(CO )
Perfil de Emissões
Brasileiras
–
Caso
Singular
2005 - Preliminar Data *
2e
Energy
Industrial
Processes
Agriculture/
Livestock
LULUCF
Waste
* Second National GHG Inventory to be concluded in 2010
Fonte: MCT (2004) Primeiro Inventário Brasileiro de Emissões Antrópicas de
Gases de Efeito Estufa não controladas pelo Protocolo de Montreal
Brazil – Energy Matrix (%)
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Hydro
Wood and Charcoal
Sugarcane
Other renewables
3.7% / Year
253 million tep
46.0 % renewable
557 million tep
46.6 % renewable
World: 13% Renewables
Brazil – Electricity Matrix (%)
Oil
Coal
Nuclear
Natural Gas
Biomass
Hydro
4.0% / Year
85.7 % renewable
81.0 % renewable
World: 18% Renewables
CHALLENGES
- 71,000 MW Expansion (2010/2019) or 7,100 MW/year
- Oil production from 2 million bbl/day to more than 5 million bbl/day
Energy Investment
US$ (Billions)
Electricity
118
Oil & Gas
373
Biofuels
37
Investment (Total) (*)
528
* It represents around 2.2% of GDP (cumulated in the period)
CLEAN DEVELOPMENT
MECHANISM (CDM) DATA
Total of CDM Project Activities in the World
6221
Malaysia
3%
Mexico
4%
China
38%
Brazil
7%
India
27%
China
Rep. of Korea
Ecuador
Uganda
El Salvador
Cuba
Côte d'Ivoire
Mauritius
Madagascar
Rw anda
21/05/2010
India
Chile
Pakistan
Uruguay
Dominican Rep.
Bangladesh
Tunisia
Fiji
Malta
Tajikistan
Brazil
Colombia
Guatemala
Armenia
Nigeria
Jordan
Iran
Qatar
Mozambique
Mexico
Peru
Panama
Costa Rica
Tanzania
Nepal
Albania
Sudan
Ethiopia
Malaysia
Argentina
Egypt
Singapore
Georgia
Senegal
Lao P D R
Cape Verde
Sw aziland
Thailand
Israel
Kenya
Bolivia
Cambodia
Bhutan
Cameroon
Equatorial Guinea
Ghana
Indonesia
South Africa
Morroco
Nicaragua
Congo
Mongolia
Syria
Guyana
Zambia
Viet Nan
Honduras
Émirats
Cyprus
Azerbaijan
Paraguay
Jamaica
Kyrgyztan
Mauritania
Philippines
Sri Lanka
Uzbekistan
Moldova
P. N. Guinea
Macedonia
Mali
Liberia
Bahamas
500
0
C h in a
In d ia
B ra zil
M exico
M a la y s ia
Th a ila n d
In d on es ia
V iet N a n
Ph ilip p in es
R ep . of K orea
C h ile
C olom b ia
Peru
A rg en tin a
Is ra el
S ou th A frica
H on d u ra s
S ri L a n k a
E cu a d or
Pa k is ta n
G u a tem a la
Pa n a m a
Eg yp t
K en y a
M orroco
É m ira ts
Uzb ek is ta n
Ug a n d a
Uru g u a y
A rm en ia
C os ta R ica
S in g a p ore
B olivia
N ica ra g u a
C y p ru s
M old ova
E l S a lva d or
D om in ica n R ep .
N ig eria
Ta n za n ia
G eorg ia
C a m b od ia
C on g o
A zerb a ija n
P. N . G u in ea
Cuba
B a n g la d es h
Jord a n
N ep a l
S en eg a l
B h u ta n
M on g olia
Pa ra g u a y
M a ced on ia
C ôte d 'Ivoire
Tu n is ia
Ira n
A lb a n ia
Lao P D R
C a m eroon
S y ria
Ja m a ica
M a li
M a u ritiu s
Fiji
Q a ta r
Sud a n
C a p e V erd e
E q u a toria l G u in ea
Guyana
K y rg y zta n
L ib eria
M a d a g a s ca r
M a lta
M oza m b iq u e
E th iop ia
S w a zila n d
G ha na
Z a m b ia
M a u rita n ia
Bahamas
Rwanda
Ta jik is ta n
Nº. of CDM Project Activities
2000
1750
1500
1250
1000
750
452
250
Reduced Emission on the First Crediting Period
(7,152 million tCO2e)
Mexico
2%
China
47%
Rep. of Korea
3%
Brazil
5%
India
24%
China
Argentina
Uzbekistan
Congo
Honduras
Iran
Senegal
Sudan
Cape Verde
Malta
India
Chile
Philippines
Kenya
Jordan
Armenia
El Salvador
Zambia
Albania
Bahamas
21/05/2010
Brazil
South Africa
Israel
Morroco
Sri Lanka
Nicaragua
Bangladesh
Rw anda
Kyrgyztan
Rep. of Korea
Viet Nan
Egypt
Dominican Rep.
Georgia
Uruguay
Jamaica
Nepal
Tajikistan
Mexico
Azerbaijan
Pakistan
Tanzania
Singapore
Costa Rica
Mauritius
Ethiopia
Madagascar
Malaysia
Colombia
Ecuador
Côte d'Ivoire
Tunisia
P. N. Guinea
Lao P D R
Paraguay
Sw aziland
Indonesia
Peru
Equatorial Guinea
Qatar
Cuba
Cyprus
Syria
Liberia
Fiji
Nigeria
Ghana
Guatemala
Émirats
Bolivia
Uganda
Mongolia
Mali
Mozambique
Thailand
Bhutan
Panama
Macedonia
Moldova
Cambodia
Cameroon
Mauritania
Guyana
600,000,000
0
CInh diniaa
a zail
R e p . oMf KeBoxr re
o
yicss ia
ia
InMdNaola
n
e
ig e nr iad
A Th
rg aeCila
n t in a
S o u Vt hieAt frNhicile
a nan
ACz oe lo
rbm
a ija
Paebnriaau
G
h
u tt aa nn
UP hz bilip
eB khpis
Isgin
r yaepestl
E
P a k aisdt ao nr
E q u a t oGr iau lEa cGt euum
inaelaa
P aCnoanm
gy aao
K
e
n
D o m in icTMaaonnzrraRoencia
po.
C ô t e d 'Iv
Q ira
ao tiratesr
É
m
M aHcoenddou nraias
SGriJeLooar rdngakiaan
S in gTau pn oisria
e
C
u
b
a
o liv
M oB ld
oIraviaan
N icAU arr umr agegunauiaay
R ic
P .CNo. sGCt auyin
euaas
p
r
C aSUmegbnaeongddaiaal
lv da ed sohr
BEal nJS gaa la
m
a ic a
LMa ao uPSr yitDriuiaRs
o negr oo olian
C Ma m
Sudan
RZwaNamenbpdia
al
aia
E
t
h
io
p
P a rLaibg eu ar iay
li
rViteM
ard
naia
C aMpaeAu lb
e
az tnaian
KTyar jik
g yis
M aSdwaagzaila
s ctnaadnr
M o z aGmubyiqa nuF iji
aea
M
a
lt
Baham as
tC O 2 e
Emissions Reduction of CO2e (1º crediting period)
3,000,000,000
2,400,000,000
1,800,000,000
1,200,000,000
389,204,514
Annual Emission Reduction
(866 million t CO2e)
Mexico
3%
Rep. of Korea
3%
China
51%
Brazil
6%
India
20%
China
Viet Nan
Pakistan
Qatar
Cuba
Cambodia
Mongolia
Liberia
Ethiopia
India
South Africa
Israel
Dominican Rep.
Georgia
Costa Rica
Lao P D R
Mali
Bahamas
21/05/2010
Brazil
Argentina
Ecuador
Honduras
Nicaragua
P. N. Guinea
Cameroon
Mauritania
Malta
Rep. of Korea
Colombia
Equatorial Guinea
Moldova
Tunisia
Cyprus
Sudan
Sw aziland
Mexico
Peru
Panama
Émirats
Tanzania
Senegal
Nepal
Tajikistan
Malaysia
Azerbaijan
Ghana
Macedonia
Iran
Uganda
Zambia
Albania
Indonesia
Uzbekistan
Guatemala
Jordan
Singapore
Mauritius
Rw anda
Madagascar
Thailand
Bhutan
Morroco
Sri Lanka
Uruguay
Bangladesh
Cape Verde
Mozambique
Nigeria
Egypt
Côte d'Ivoire
Congo
Armenia
Syria
Paraguay
Guyana
Chile
Philippines
Kenya
Bolivia
El Salvador
Jamaica
Kyrgyztan
Fiji
50,000,000
0
C h in a
In d ia
B ra z il
R ep . o f
M exic o
M a la y s ia
In d on es ia
Th a ila n d
N ig eria
C h ile
V iet N a n
S o u th A fric a
A rg en tin a
C olom b ia
Peru
A zerb a ija n
Uzb ek is ta n
B h u ta n
Eg y p t
Ph ilip p in e s
Pa k is ta n
Is ra e l
E cu a d o r
E q u a toria l
Pa n a m a
Ghana
G u a tem a la
M orroc o
C ô te d 'Ivoire
K en y a
Q a ta r
D om in ica n
H on d u ra s
M old ova
É m ira ts
M a ced on ia
Jord a n
S ri L a n k a
C on g o
B olivia
Cub a
G eorg ia
N ica ra g u a
Tu n is ia
Ta n za n ia
Ira n
S in g a p ore
Uru g u a y
A rm en ia
E l S a lva d o r
C a m b od ia
C os ta R ic a
P. N . G u in e a
C y p ru s
S en eg a l
Ug a n d a
M a u ritiu s
B a n g la d es h
S y ria
Ja m a ic a
M on g olia
La o P D R
C a m eroo n
Sud a n
N ep a l
Z a m b ia
Rwand a
C a p e V erd e
Pa ra g u a y
K y rg y zta n
L ib eria
M a li
M a u rita n ia
S w a zila n d
Ta jik is ta n
A lb a n ia
M a d a g a s ca r
M o za m b iq u e
Guyana
Fiji
E th iop ia
Bahama s
M a lta
t C O 2e
Annual Emissions Reduction of CO2e
400,000,000
350,000,000
300,000,000
250,000,000
200,000,000
150,000,000
100,000,000
49,173,551
Number of Brazilian Projects by Sectoral Scope
Landfill
8.0%
Fossil fuel
switch
10.0%
Swine
16.6%
Renewable
energy
50.2%
Renew able energy
Sw ine
Fossil fuel sw itch
Landfill
Energy efficiency
Waste
Industrial process
N2O
Reforestation
Fugitive emissions
Emission Reductions on the First Crediting Period by
Sectoral Scope in Brazil
Renewable energy
37.5%
Landfill
21.6%
Swine
10.0%
N2O
11.5%
Renewable energy
Landfill
N2O
Swine
Fossil fuel switch
Energy efficiency
Reforestation
Industrial process
Waste
Fugitive emissions
Installed Capacity (MW) of the project activities
approved by the CIMGC
Total: 3641 MW
PROINFA: 447 MW
Hydro
38%
Hydro
SHP
22%
Bagasse
SHP
Wind
Biomass
Biogas
Bagasse
30%
Number of CDM Project Activities in Brazil by
Country Parties
Japan
5%
Netherlands
7%
UK
15%
Unilateral
65%
Unilateral
UK
Netherlands
Japan
Spain
Germany
Sw eden
Sw itzerland
France
Canada
Portugal
CER Demand
• Most of Western European countries
increase their emissions above Kyoto
targets
– Exceptions: Germany and United Kingdom
• Most of Eastern European countries
have Kyoto targets greater than current
emissions (“hot air”)
– Exception: Slovenia
– Politically difficult to use “hot air”
• Preference to Joint Implementation projects
• Emissions may increase up to 2012 if
additional measures are not undertaken
Difference between emissions in 2007 and the Kyoto Protocol targets in 2012
and reduction of emissions from CDM projects under BASIC
(- 1,410,290 t CO2 eq)
Including United States of Am erica (-21,047 t CO2 eq)
United States o f A merica 1389243
Canada 188683
Japan 188604
Turkey 156663
Spain 109082
Italy 69516
A ustralia 37939
Slo vakia 28225
P o rtugal 23495
A ustria 19185
Ireland 13706
New Zealand 13637
Denmark 12724
Finland 7342
No rway 4935
Luxembo urg 3433
Switzerland 2697
Iceland 777
Liechtenstein 32
Russian Federatio n -1130601
M o naco -1
Cro atia -1841
Greece -1880
Netherlands -2863
B elgium -3498
So uth A frica -7110
Sweden -9626
Latvia -11754
Esto nia -17194
Germany -17506
Lithuania -20723
Czech Republic -27885
France -28153
Hungary -32530
B elarus -37165
Slo venia -45565
B ulgaria -46216
B razil -49174
Ro mania -103677
P o land -130755
United Kingdo m -136700
India -172925
China -439877
Ukraine -484832
José Miguez
Coordenação Geral de Mudanças Globais de Clima
Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia
Esplanada dos Ministérios – Bloco E – sala 268
Brasília – DF
+55 (61) 3317-7923
[email protected]