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Transcrição

Base Case A
Income Statement
Gross Revenues
VAT Deductions
Net Revenues
CSS
Labor
Gross Result
Selling Expenses
Administrative Expenses
EBITDA
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest Expenses
Interest Income
EBT
Taxes
Net Income
Mandatory Dividends
Common Dividends
Net Revenues Variation
EBITDA Variation
Gross Margin
EBITDA Margin
Net Margin
0
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
4
5
21.558.729
1.119.733
20.438.996
0
1.198.865
19.240.131
319.395
531.700
18.389.036
15.508.750
2.880.286
9.167.684
28.360.810
884.812
27.475.999
0
1.656.392
25.819.607
468.454
693.710
24.657.443
29.940.556
(5.283.113)
14.121.344
36.691.798
616.644
36.075.155
0
2.145.493
33.929.661
584.274
756.858
32.588.529
47.299.076
(14.710.546)
19.612.989
45.571.214
315.290
45.255.924
0
2.667.857
42.588.067
767.537
823.645
40.996.885
66.052.183
(25.055.298)
25.252.269
4.067.969
911.275
3.156.694
0
0
1.701.260
1.017.734
683.526
7.966.875
0
-6.287.398
149.598
-6.436.996
10.870.716
0
-19.404.457
-164.825
-19.239.632
11.251.191
0
-34.323.536
-247.226
-34.076.310
11.644.982
0
-50.307.567
-173.348
-50.134.219
12.052.557
0
106%
108%
94%
90%
5%
55%
55%
94%
90%
-31%
34%
34%
94%
90%
-70%
31%
32%
94%
90%
-94%
25%
26%
94%
91%
-111%
64.275
0
1.102.066
0
0
1.166.341
102.587.500
0
103.753.841
99.905
0
1.703.250
0
0
1.803.155
144.318.063
0
146.121.218
138.033
0
2.289.667
0
0
2.427.699
173.585.195
0
176.012.894
178.791
0
3.006.263
0
0
3.185.054
187.531.077
0
190.716.130
222.321
0
3.771.327
0
0
3.993.648
184.832.424
0
188.826.073
1.042.996
0
0
0
1.042.996
85.470.000
0
86.512.996
21.367.500
0
0
-4.126.655
17.240.845
103.753.841
19.178.772
0
0
0
19.178.772
126.261.450
0
145.440.222
22.115.363
0
0
-21.434.367
680.996
146.121.218
40.768.083
0
0
0
40.768.083
164.280.601
0
205.048.683
22.889.400
0
0
-51.925.190
-29.035.789
176.012.894
65.241.661
0
0
0
65.241.661
199.430.422
0
264.672.083
23.690.529
0
0
-97.646.482
-73.955.952
190.716.130
92.529.146
0
0
0
92.529.146
231.610.487
0
324.139.632
24.519.698
0
0
-159.833.257
-135.313.560
188.826.073
107.880.496
86.512.996
86.512.996
9,1x
7,3x
7,3x
2,4x
0,9x
167.555.585
145.440.222
145.440.222
9,1x
7,9x
7,9x
2,0x
0,9x
227.938.084
205.048.683
205.048.683
9,2x
8,3x
8,3x
1,7x
1,0x
288.362.612
264.672.083
264.672.083
8,8x
8,1x
8,1x
1,7x
1,0x
348.659.330
324.139.632
324.139.632
8,5x
7,9x
7,9x
1,6x
1,1x
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
31.014
2.589.560
536.120
0
0
3.156.694
52.500.000
Liabilities
Short Term Debt
Accounts Payable
Accruals
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities
Long Term Debt
Other Liabilities
Total Liabilities
Preferred Equity
Common Equity
Reserves
Retained Earnings
Total Equity
Total Liabilities + Equity
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
0
0
0
0
0
42.000.000
3
14.275.800
1.051.010
13.224.790
0
771.303
12.453.488
223.734
376.991
11.852.763
5.250.000
6.602.763
4.901.502
%
%
% of Net Rev
% of Net Rev
% of Net Rev
R$
R$
R$
Ratio
Ratio
Ratio
Ratio
Ratio
2
7.119.000
685.560
6.433.440
0
372.170
6.061.271
133.635
232.167
5.695.469
0
5.695.469
1.627.500
Assets
Operating Cash
Marketable Securities
Accounts Receivable
Inventory
Other Current Assets
Total Current Assets
Fixed Assets
Other LT Assets
Total Assets
Total Debt Including Preffered
Total Debt
Net Debt
TDIP/EBITDA
TD/EBITDA
ND/EBITDA
EBITDA/Interest Expense
EBITDA/Int Exp+Mandatory Dividends
1
55.656.694
42.000.000
10.500.000
0
3.156.694
13.656.694
55.656.694
52.500.000
42.000.000
39.410.440
Cash Flow Statement
EBITDA
Change in Working Capital
Taxes
Operating Cash Flow
CAPEX
Free Cash Flow
Net Interest Expense
Preferred Equity Dividends
Debt Repayments
Preferred Equity Redemption
Debt Service
Cash Flow after Debt Service
Common Dividends
Short Term Debt Drawings
Long Term Debt Drawings
Preferred Equity Issuance
Common Equity Issuance
Translation Loss (Gain)
Change in Marketable Securities
Unlevered Cash Flow
EBITDA
CAPEX
Working Capital
Taxes over EBIT
Unlevered Cash Flow
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
5.695.469
-911.275
4.784.194
-52.500.000
-47.715.806
-1.627.500
0
0
0
-1.627.500
-49.343.306
0
0
42.000.000
10.500.000
0
0
3.156.694
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
15,37%
-10.500.000
55,39%
11.852.763
-599.207
-1.017.734
10.235.821
-55.337.500
-45.101.679
-4.901.502
-7.966.875
0
0
-12.868.377
-57.970.056
0
1.042.996
43.470.000
10.867.500
0
0
-2.589.560
18.389.036
-636.814
-149.598
17.602.624
-57.239.313
-39.636.688
-9.167.684
-10.870.716
-4.200.000
-10.500.000
-34.738.400
-74.375.088
0
18.135.776
44.991.450
11.247.863
0
0
0
24.657.443
-624.544
164.825
24.197.724
-59.207.688
-35.009.965
-14.121.344
-11.251.191
-8.547.000
-10.867.500
-44.787.034
-79.796.999
0
21.589.311
46.566.151
11.641.538
0
0
0
32.588.529
-757.355
247.226
32.078.401
-61.244.958
-29.166.557
-19.612.989
-11.644.982
-13.046.145
-11.247.863
-55.551.979
-84.718.536
0
24.473.579
48.195.966
12.048.992
0
-0
-0
40.996.885
-808.594
173.348
40.361.639
-63.353.531
-22.991.892
-25.252.269
-12.052.557
-17.702.760
-11.641.538
-66.649.123
-89.641.016
0
27.287.485
49.882.825
12.470.706
0
-0
0
11.852.763
-55.337.500
-599.207
-1.017.734
-45.101.679
18.389.036
-57.239.313
-636.814
-149.598
-39.636.688
24.657.443
-59.207.688
-624.544
164.825
-35.009.965
32.588.529
-61.244.958
-757.355
247.226
-29.166.557
40.996.885
-63.353.531
-808.594
173.348
-22.991.892
-2.900.625
10.122.853
10.477.153
10.843.853
11.223.388
Firm Value with Leverage of 80%
Figures in R$
Cost of Equity
50%
Perpetuity Growth
Rate
45%
Equity Value with Leverage of 80%
Figures in R$
55%
Cost of Equity
50%
45%
55%
1,0%
31.675.201
10.945.970
-5.727.926
1,0%
-541.651.247
-562.380.478
-579.054.374
2,0%
32.763.078
11.671.899
-5.237.231
2,0%
-540.563.370
-561.654.549
-578.563.679
3,0%
34.045.081
12.516.755
-4.672.234
3,0%
-539.281.367
-560.809.693
-577.998.682
Net Debt Pre-Transaction
WACC Demonstration
Cost of Equity
45,0%
50,0%
55,0%
Cost of Debt
Marginal Tax Rate
After Tax Cost of Debt
7,8%
16,0%
6,5%
7,8%
16,0%
6,5%
7,8%
16,0%
6,5%
Leverage (D/D+E)
80,0%
80,0%
80,0%
WACC
14,2%
15,2%
16,2%
Short Term Debt
Long Term Debt
Total Debt
338.105.693
235.679.482
573.785.175
Operating Cash
0
458.727
Net Debt
573.326.448
Valuation 1
# of Days
Unlevered Cash Flow
PV Cash Flow
PV Cash Flow
PV Perpetuity 1
PV Perpetuity 2
PV Perpetuity 3
Days
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
Valuation 2
# of Days
Unlevered Cash Flow
PV Cash Flow
PV Cash Flow
PV Perpetuity 1
PV Perpetuity 2
PV Perpetuity 3
Days
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
Valuation 3
# of Days
Unlevered Cash Flow
PV Cash Flow
PV Cash Flow
PV Perpetuity 1
PV Perpetuity 2
PV Perpetuity 3
Days
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
14,2%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
15,2%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
16,2%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
360
-45.101.679
-39.490.823
19.930.299
11.744.902
12.832.779
14.114.782
720
-39.636.688
-30.388.153
360
-45.101.679
-39.148.044
2.540.342
8.405.628
9.131.557
9.976.413
720
-39.636.688
-29.862.907
360
-45.101.679
-38.811.165
-11.787.321
6.059.396
6.550.090
7.115.087
720
-39.636.688
-29.351.163
1.080
-35.009.965
-23.501.852
1.440
-29.166.557
-17.143.483
1.800
-22.991.892
-11.832.924
1.080
-35.009.965
-22.895.164
1.440
-29.166.557
-16.555.969
1.800
-22.991.892
-11.328.216
1.080
-35.009.965
-22.309.179
1.440
-29.166.557
-15.993.410
1.800
-22.991.892
-10.849.122
31.675.201
32.763.078
34.045.081
10.945.970
11.671.899
12.516.755
-5.727.926
-5.237.231
-4.672.234
% Utilization
Actual Rent Contracts
Default
Gross Rev CL
Used Tipo Tanque
Potential Rent Contracts
% Utilization
Actual Rent Contracts
Default
Gross Rev CL
Gross Revenue
Costs
Insurance
Maintenace
Reform
Total costs
Gross Margin
VAT
ICMS or ISS
PIS
Cofins
CPMF
ICMS or ISS
PIS
Cofins
CPMF
VAT Deductions
100%
1.356.000
0,0%
1.356.000
100%
2.732.400
0,0%
2.732.400
100%
4.126.359
0,0%
4.126.359
100%
5.428.283
0,0%
5.428.283
100%
7.022.841
0,0%
7.022.841
100%
8.722.368
0,0%
8.722.368
1.017.000
100%
1.017.000
0,0%
1.017.000
1.980.000
100%
1.980.000
0,0%
1.980.000
2.990.115
100%
2.990.115
0,0%
2.990.115
3.933.538
100%
3.933.538
0,0%
3.933.538
5.089.015
100%
5.089.015
0,0%
5.089.015
6.320.557
100%
6.320.557
0,0%
6.320.557
R$
7.119.000
7.119.000
14.275.800
13.541.550
21.558.729
18.530.439
28.360.810
21.246.828
36.691.798
22.953.804
45.571.214
22.623.489
R$
R$
0%
0%
0%
0
0%
0%
0%
0
0%
0%
0%
0
0%
0%
0%
0
0%
0%
0%
0
0%
0%
0%
0
R$
7.119.000
14.275.800
21.558.729
28.360.810
36.691.798
45.571.214
0,00%
1,65%
7,60%
0,38%
0
117.464
541.044
27.052
685.560
0,00%
1,25%
5,74%
0,38%
0
177.801
818.961
54.248
1.051.010
0,00%
0,86%
3,96%
0,38%
0
185.123
852.687
81.923
1.119.733
0,00%
0,49%
2,25%
0,38%
0
138.607
638.433
107.771
884.812
0,00%
0,23%
1,07%
0,38%
0
85.125
392.090
139.429
616.644
0,00%
0,06%
0,26%
0,38%
0
25.351
116.768
173.171
315.290
0%
1,65%
7,60%
0
0%
1,65%
7,60%
0
0%
1,65%
7,60%
0
0%
1,65%
7,60%
0
0%
1,65%
7,60%
0
13.224.790
20.438.996
27.475.999
36.075.155
45.255.924
%
R$
%
R$
R$
%
R$
%
R$
% of Dom Sales
% of Dom Sales
% of Dom Sales
% of Dom Sales
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
Recuperação Impostos
Crédito ICMS -combustíveis
Recuperação PIS
Recuperação COFINS
VAT Créditos totais
R$
0%
1,65%
7,60%
0
Net Operating Margin
R$
6.433.440
%
%
%
Operational Employees
Monitoring
Maintenance
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
xx
Total Operational Employees
Operational Employees Variation
# of emp
# of emp
# of emp
Administrative Employees
Administrative Employees
Average Wage
Inflator Factor
Administrative Employees - Cost
Sales Employees
Sales Employees
Average Wage
Inflator Factor
Sales Employees - Cost
R$/yr
R$ /yr
% of Inflation
R$
# of Emp
R$ /yr
% of Inflation
R$
# of Emp
R$ /yr
% of Inflation
R$
4
5
6
8
8
11
10
13
12
16
5
9
100%
14
50%
19
33%
23
25%
28
20%
1
1
1
1
1
1
101.501
63.438
100%
372.170
105.178
65.736
104%
771.303
108.988
68.117
104%
1.198.865
112.936
70.585
104%
1.656.392
117.027
73.142
104%
2.145.493
121.266
75.791
104%
2.667.857
2
100.000
100%
200.000
3
103.623
104%
310.868
4
107.376
104%
429.505
5
111.266
104%
556.330
5
115.297
104%
576.483
5
119.473
104%
597.366
1
50.000
100%
50.000
1
51.811
104%
51.811
1
53.688
104%
53.688
2
55.633
104%
111.266
2
57.648
104%
115.297
3
59.737
104%
179.210
%
Employee factor
Average Wage - Monitoring
Average Wage - Maintenance
Inflator Factor
Operational Employees - Cost
2
3
Selling Expenses
Labor
Marketing
Commissions
Total Selling Expenses
Marketing (% of Net Revenue)
Commission (% Net Revenue)
R$
R$
R$
R$
%
%
Administrative Expenses
Labor
Others
Total Administrative Expenses
Others % of Net Revenues
R$
R$
R$
%
Net Revenues
Total Expenses
R$
50.000
19.300
64.334
133.635
0,3%
1,0%
51.811
39.674
132.248
223.734
0,3%
1,0%
53.688
61.317
204.390
319.395
0,3%
1,0%
111.266
82.428
274.760
468.454
0,3%
1,0%
115.297
108.225
360.752
584.274
0,3%
1,0%
179.210
135.768
452.559
767.537
0,3%
1,0%
200.000
32.167
232.167
0,5%
310.868
66.124
376.991
0,5%
429.505
102.195
531.700
0,5%
556.330
137.380
693.710
0,5%
576.483
180.376
756.858
0,5%
597.366
226.280
823.645
0,5%
6.433.440
737.972
13.224.790
1.372.028
20.438.996
2.049.960
27.475.999
2.818.555
36.075.155
3.486.625
45.255.924
4.259.039
536.120
30
1.102.066
30
1.703.250
30
2.289.667
30
3.006.263
30
3.771.327
30
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
31.014
30
64.275
30
99.905
30
138.033
30
178.791
30
222.321
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
Accounts Receivable
Days Sale
R$
Inventory
Days Inventory
R$
Operating Cash
Days Operating Cash
R$
Accounts Payable
Days Payable
R$
Accruals
Days Accrual
R$
R$
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
0
30
Working Capital
R$
567.134
1.166.341
1.803.155
2.427.699
3.185.054
3.993.648
R$
R$
R$
R$
Long Term Debt (Bridge)
R$
Drawings
Repayments
Final Balance
Spread
Interest Rate
Interest Expense
Initial Balance
Drawings
Repayments
Translation Gain/(Loss)
Final Balance
Interest Expense
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
Long Term Debt (BNDES)
% BNDES
R$
Drawings
Repayments
Final Balance
Spread
Interest Rate
Interest Expense
Initial Balance
Drawings
Repayments
Final Balance
Interest Expense
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,00%
12,00%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,00%
11,50%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,00%
11,50%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,00%
11,50%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,00%
12,00%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6,00%
12,00%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
80%
0
42.000.000
80%
42.000.000
43.470.000
85.470.000
1,50%
7,58%
4.833.708
42.000.000
43.470.000
0
0
85.470.000
4.833.708
80%
85.470.000
44.991.450
4.200.000
126.261.450
1,50%
7,42%
7.853.269
85.470.000
44.991.450
4.200.000
0
126.261.450
7.853.269
80%
126.261.450
46.566.151
8.547.000
164.280.601
1,50%
7,14%
10.374.665
126.261.450
46.566.151
8.547.000
0
164.280.601
10.374.665
80%
164.280.601
48.195.966
13.046.145
199.430.422
1,50%
7,14%
12.987.380
164.280.601
48.195.966
13.046.145
0
199.430.422
12.987.380
80%
199.430.422
49.882.825
17.702.760
231.610.487
1,50%
7,14%
15.391.593
199.430.422
49.882.825
17.702.760
0
231.610.487
15.391.593
42.000.000
1,50%
7,75%
1.627.500
0
42.000.000
0
0
42.000.000
1.627.500
0
42.000.000
0
42.000.000
1.627.500
0
42.000.000
0
0
42.000.000
1.627.500
42.000.000
43.470.000
0
85.470.000
4.833.708
42.000.000
43.470.000
0
0
85.470.000
4.833.708
85.470.000
44.991.450
4.200.000
126.261.450
7.853.269
85.470.000
44.991.450
4.200.000
0
126.261.450
7.853.269
126.261.450
46.566.151
8.547.000
164.280.601
10.374.665
126.261.450
46.566.151
8.547.000
0
164.280.601
10.374.665
164.280.601
48.195.966
13.046.145
199.430.422
12.987.380
164.280.601
48.195.966
13.046.145
0
199.430.422
12.987.380
199.430.422
49.882.825
17.702.760
231.610.487
15.391.593
199.430.422
49.882.825
17.702.760
0
231.610.487
15.391.593
53.067.134
55.656.694
-2.589.560
2.589.560
0
103.753.841
102.710.845
1.042.996
0
1.042.996
146.121.218
126.942.446
19.178.772
0
19.178.772
176.012.894
135.244.811
40.768.083
0
40.768.083
190.716.130
125.474.469
65.241.661
0
65.241.661
188.826.073
96.296.927
92.529.146
0
92.529.146
0
0
0
0
7,00%
13,00%
0
0
1.042.996
0
1.042.996
7,00%
13,00%
67.795
1.042.996
18.135.776
0
19.178.772
7,00%
13,00%
1.314.415
19.178.772
21.589.311
0
40.768.083
7,00%
12,50%
3.746.678
40.768.083
24.473.579
0
65.241.661
7,00%
12,50%
6.625.609
65.241.661
27.287.485
0
92.529.146
7,00%
12,50%
9.860.675
2.589.560
9,0%
234.096
0
8,8%
0
0
8,6%
0
0
8,2%
0
0
8,2%
0
0
8,2%
0
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
Long Term Debt (Total)
R$
Drawings
Repayments
Final Balance
Interest Expense
Initial Balance
Drawings
Repayments
Final Balance
Interest Expense
Plug
Assets
Liabilities
Plug
Short Term Debt
Short Term Debt
Initial Balance
Drawings
Repayments
Final Balance
Spread
Interest Rate
Interest Expense
Investment Rate
Interest Income
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
Common Equity
Common Equity
New Equity
New Equity from Conversion
Common Equity
Preferred Equity
% of Preferred Equity
Initial Balance
Issuance
Conversion
Redemption
Final Balance
Interest Rate
Interest Expense
Initial Balance
Drawings
Conversion
Repayments
Final Balance
Mandatory Dividends
Retained Earnings
Initial Balance
Net Income (Loss)
Mandatory Dividends
Common Dividends
Final Balance
Dividends Pay-Out
Pays Only After Repayment?
Final Balance
R$
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10.500.000
20%
0
10.500.000
10.867.500
20%
10.500.000
10.867.500
11.247.863
20%
21.367.500
11.247.863
11.641.538
20%
22.115.363
11.641.538
12.048.992
20%
22.889.400
12.048.992
12.470.706
20%
23.690.529
12.470.706
10.500.000
21.367.500
50,00%
7.966.875
10.500.000
10.867.500
0
0
0
21.367.500
7.966.875
10.500.000
22.115.363
50,00%
10.870.716
21.367.500
11.247.863
0
10.500.000
0
22.115.363
10.870.716
10.867.500
22.889.400
50,00%
11.251.191
22.115.363
11.641.538
0
10.867.500
0
22.889.400
11.251.191
11.247.863
23.690.529
50,00%
11.644.982
22.889.400
12.048.992
0
11.247.863
0
23.690.529
11.644.982
11.641.538
24.519.698
50,00%
12.052.557
23.690.529
12.470.706
0
11.641.538
0
24.519.698
12.052.557
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
%
T/F
30%
0
0
10.500.000
0
0
0
10.500.000
0
0
3.156.694
-4.126.655
-21.434.367
-51.925.190
-97.646.482
3.156.694
683.526
-6.436.996
-19.239.632
-34.076.310
-50.134.219
0
7.966.875
10.870.716
11.251.191
11.644.982
12.052.557
0
0
0
0
0
0
3.156.694
-4.126.655
-21.434.367
-51.925.190
-97.646.482 -159.833.257
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
VERDADEIRO VERDADEIRO VERDADEIRO VERDADEIRO VERDADEIRO VERDADEIRO
947.008
-1.237.997
-6.430.310
-15.577.557
-29.293.944
-47.949.977
Income Taxes
EBT
Taxes
Tax Rate
R$
R$
%
4.067.969
911.275
16,0%
1.701.260
1.017.734
15,4%
-6.287.398
149.598
5,2%
-19.404.457
-164.825
3,1%
-34.323.536
-247.226
1,7%
-50.307.567
-173.348
0,7%
Taxes over EBIT
EBIT
Taxes over EBIT
R$
R$
5.695.469
911.275
6.602.763
1.017.734
2.880.286
149.598
-5.283.113
-164.825
-14.710.546
-247.226
-25.055.298
-173.348
117.464
541.044
27.052
4.067.969
4.067.969
15%
610.195
10%
382.797
9%
366.117
177.801
818.961
54.248
3.451.260
3.451.260
15%
517.689
10%
321.126
9%
310.613
185.123
852.687
81.923
-1.117.814
-782.470
15%
0
10%
0
9%
0
138.607
638.433
107.771
-9.424.271
-6.596.990
15%
0
10%
0
9%
0
85.125
392.090
139.429
-18.557.177
-12.990.024
15%
0
10%
0
9%
0
25.351
116.768
173.171
-28.290.173
-19.803.121
15%
0
10%
0
9%
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
-1.117.814
-335.344
-1.453.159
-9.424.271
-2.827.281
-13.704.711
-18.557.177
-5.567.153
-37.829.042
-28.290.173
-8.487.052
-74.606.266
2.044.669
2.200.438
1.119.733
884.812
616.644
315.290
16,00%
1,65%
7,60%
0,38%
8,57%
5,38%
5,14%
15,41%
1,25%
5,74%
0,38%
3,63%
2,25%
2,18%
5,19%
0,86%
3,96%
0,38%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
3,12%
0,49%
2,25%
0,38%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
1,68%
0,23%
1,07%
0,38%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,69%
0,06%
0,26%
0,38%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
PIS
COFINS
CPMF
Lucro Real/base CSLL pre 30%
Lucro Real/base CSLL pos 30%
Alíquota IRPJ
IRPJ
Alíquota IRPJ (adicional)
IRPJ (adicional)
Alíquota CSLL
CSLL
Prejuízo Fiscal/Base negativa de CSLL
Utilização de Base negativa
Saldo de Base negativa a utilizar
Tributação Cheia
Alíquota Efetiva
PIS
COFINS
CPMF
IRPJ
IRPJ (Adicional)
CSLL
CAPEX Plan
Wagon (net adds)
01. Vagao new Hooper
02. Vagao new Tanque
03. Vagao used Hooper
04. Vagao used Tanque
Wagon qty (accum.)
01. Vagao new tipo Hooper
02. Vagao new tipo Tanque
03. Vagao used tipo Hooper
04. Vagao used tipo Tanque
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
#
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
200
200
200
200
300
300
300
300
400
400
400
400
500
500
500
500
600
600
600
600
Wagon (net adds)
01. Vagao new tipo Hooper
02. Vagao new tipo Tanque
03. Vagao used tipo Hooper
04. Vagao used tipo Tanque
20.000.000
15.000.000
10.000.000
7.500.000
20.700.000
15.525.000
10.350.000
7.762.500
21.424.500
16.068.375
10.712.250
8.034.188
22.174.358
16.630.768
11.087.179
8.315.384
22.950.460
17.212.845
11.475.230
8.606.423
23.753.726
17.815.295
11.876.863
8.907.647
67%
67%
67%
67%
67%
67%
R$
52.500.000
54.337.500
56.239.313
58.207.688
60.244.958
62.353.531
R$
0
52.500.000
0
52.500.000
0
52.500.000
52.500.000
0
52.500.000
54.337.500
1.000.000
55.337.500
5.250.000
102.587.500
106.105.000
5.250.000
1.732.500
10,0%
3,3%
3.500.000
(200)
107.837.500
56.239.313
1.000.000
57.239.313
20.758.750
144.318.063
161.691.425
15.508.750
3.385.388
10,0%
3,3%
10.339.167
(300)
165.076.813
58.207.688
1.000.000
59.207.688
50.699.306
173.585.195
219.522.005
29.940.556
4.762.496
10,0%
3,3%
19.960.371
(400)
224.284.501
60.244.958
1.000.000
61.244.958
97.998.382
187.531.077
279.801.147
47.299.076
5.728.311
10,0%
3,3%
31.532.717
(500)
285.529.458
62.353.531
1.000.000
63.353.531
164.050.565
184.832.424
342.694.464
66.052.183
6.188.526
10,0%
3,3%
44.034.789
(600)
R$
R$
R$
R$
% of new
Discreationary CAPEX
Fixed Assets
Initial Balance
Expansion CAPEX
Maintenance CAPEX
CAPEX
Depreciation
Final Balance taxes
Final Balance Accounting
Depreciation for taxes
Depreciation Expense
Taxes Depreciation Rate
Accounting Depreciation Rate
Depreciation new
check - empurradores Inativos
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
R$
%
3,3%
(100)
Macro Drivers
Exchange Rate
Devaluation
Inflation USA
Inflation Brasil
Inflation Factor
LIBOR
CDI
CDI ACUMULADO
CDI CURVE
TJLP
Risco Pais
R$/US$
1,90
%
%
%
Factor
% p.a.
% p.a.
% p.a.
Receita Operacional Líquida
Custo dos Produtos Vendidos
Lucro Bruto
Despesas Operacionais
Com Vendas
Gerais e Administrativas
Outras
Total
2,0%
3,5%
1,000
6,0%
11,3%
111,3%
11,3%
6,3%
1,8%
1,93
3,5%
2,0%
3,5%
1,035
6,0%
11,0%
123,5%
11,1%
6,1%
1,5%
1,96
3,5%
2,0%
3,5%
1,071
6,0%
10,7%
136,8%
11,0%
5,9%
1,2%
2008 % da Receita
100,00%
797.651
525.045
272.606
34,18%
1,99
3,5%
2,0%
3,5%
1,109
5,5%
10,2%
150,7%
10,8%
5,6%
1,2%
2,02
3,5%
2,0%
3,5%
1,148
5,5%
10,2%
166,1%
10,7%
5,6%
1,2%
2009 % da Receita
100,00%
881.296
591.600
289.696
32,87%
47.061
87.742
5,90%
11,00%
51.996
96.943
5,90%
11,00%
134.803
16,90%
148.939
16,90%
EBIT
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Resultado Financeiro
Receita Financeira
Despesa Financeira
Total
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Resultado Operacional
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Receita Não-Operacional
Despesa Não-Operacional
Resultado Não-Operacional
FF Consult © 2010 Todos os
direitos
Imposto
de reservados.
Renda e C. Social (25%)
Resultado Líquido
2,05
3,5%
2,0%
3,5%
1,188
5,5%
10,2%
183,0%
10,6%
5,6%
1,2%
4.290
0,49%
4.290
0,49%
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Ativo
Ativo Total
Ativo Circulante
Disponivel e Inv CP
Creditos Comerciais CP
Clientes CP
Duplicatas a Receber
Saques Cambiais Desc
Duplicatas Descontadas
Prov Contas Cobr Duvid
Creditos diversos
Titulos a Receber CP
A Receber de Control CP
Aplicacoes Financ CP
Outros Creditos CP
Estoques
Outros Ativos CP
Ativo nao circulante
Realizavel LP
Creditos Comerciais LP
A Receber de Control LP
de Coligadas
de Controladas
de Outras Pessoas Ligads
Outros Ativos LP
Permanente
Inv em Subsid e Outros
Inv em coligadas
Inv em coligadas - agio
Invest em Subsidiarias
Inv em subsid - agio
Outros Investimentos
Outros
Imobilizado
Imobiliz antes Deprec
Depreciacao Acumulada
Intangiveis e agio
Intang antes da amortiz
Amortizacao acumulada
Diferido
Diferido antes Amort
Amortizacao Acumulada
26.972.342
6.293.170
1.478.914
3.112.307
3.112.307
3.434.957
0
0
-322.650
0
0
0
0
0
146.968
1.554.981
20.679.172
2.459.661
2.182.488
0
0
0
0
277.173
18.219.511
392.835
4.506
0
295.209
0
93.120
0
17.236.056
42.351.545
-25.115.489
0
0
0
590.620
645.547
-54.927
26.436.798
6.810.087
1.789.454
3.327.691
3.327.691
3.632.882
0
0
-305.191
0
0
0
0
0
122.885
1.570.057
19.626.711
2.171.031
1.826.634
0
0
0
0
344.397
17.455.680
369.046
5.719
0
279.671
0
83.656
0
16.512.562
42.453.966
-25.941.404
0
0
0
574.072
645.593
-71.521
26.660.258
7.639.470
2.411.910
3.665.365
3.665.365
4.085.177
0
0
-419.812
0
0
0
0
0
85.091
1.477.104
19.020.788
2.071.853
1.732.220
0
0
0
0
339.633
16.948.935
350.463
5.077
0
264.133
0
81.253
0
16.040.946
42.805.040
-26.764.094
0
0
0
557.526
645.608
-88.082
29.103.993
9.725.123
4.325.513
3.533.479
3.533.479
3.872.989
0
0
-339.510
0
0
0
0
0
136.865
1.729.266
19.378.870
2.510.258
237.670
15.577
0
15.577
0
2.257.011
16.868.612
305.052
0
0
0
0
305.052
0
16.004.849
43.572.416
-27.567.567
0
0
0
558.711
687.224
-128.513
27.802.593
9.014.715
3.617.448
3.589.162
3.589.162
3.942.648
0
0
-353.486
0
0
0
0
0
206.904
1.601.201
18.787.878
2.573.957
1.628.042
16.130
0
16.130
0
929.785
16.213.921
289.501
0
0
230.228
0
59.273
0
15.383.076
43.765.766
-28.382.690
0
0
0
541.344
667.398
-126.054
28.365.014
10.041.831
4.845.288
3.584.653
3.584.653
3.895.580
0
0
-310.927
0
0
0
0
0
183.635
1.428.255
18.323.183
2.564.780
1.582.946
15.610
0
15.610
0
966.224
15.758.403
320.546
0
0
262.716
0
57.830
0
14.913.626
44.093.870
-29.180.244
0
0
0
524.231
667.156
-142.925
28.540.987
10.498.730
4.863.317
3.734.924
3.734.924
4.040.411
0
0
-305.487
0
0
0
0
0
354.331
1.546.158
18.042.257
2.533.678
1.501.477
15.011
0
15.011
0
1.017.190
15.508.579
302.188
0
0
243.951
0
58.237
0
14.699.112
44.685.959
-29.986.847
0
0
0
507.279
667.171
-159.892
Passivo
Passivo e Patrimonio Liq
Passivo Circulante
Financiamento CP
Financ Moeda Estrg CP
Financ Moeda Nacion CP
Adiant de Contr de Camb
Debentures CP
Fornecedores CP
Impostos a Pagar CP
Dividendos a Pagar CP
Provisoes CP
A Pagar a Controlad CP
Outros Passivos CP
Passivo nao circulante
Exigivel LP
Financiamento LP
Financ Moeda Estrg LP
Financ Moeda Nacion LP
Debentures LP
Provisoes LP
A Pagar a Controlad LP
Adiant p fut aum de cap
Outros Passivos LP
Resultados de Exer Futur
Part Acionistas Minorit
Patrimonio Liquido
Capital Social
Reservas de Capital
26.972.342
4.392.308
1.955.024
-
26.436.798
4.451.933
2.243.312
-
98.237
1.187.921
466.355
151.237
29.318
0
504.216
11.472.543
11.472.543
8.187.629
-
20.706
1.093.695
463.031
149.190
0
0
481.999
11.049.502
11.049.502
7.922.612
1.300.000
1.871.560
75.382
0
37.972
0
2.099.601
9.007.890
4.216.383
536.698
26.660.258
5.213.676
2.513.868
92.223
1.235.501
715.056
153.901
0
0
503.127
10.563.878
10.563.878
7.340.104
-
1.207.200
1.130.570
0
0
789.120
0
2.092.973
8.842.390
4.383.990
369.092
29.103.993
6.893.456
2.646.244
15.661
1.902.744
805.886
1.066.717
0
0
456.204
11.664.311
11.657.859
8.290.679
-
1.207.200
1.089.555
0
0
927.019
0
2.052.116
8.830.588
4.383.990
369.092
27.802.593
5.721.809
2.756.618
63.838
1.427.228
736.897
299.066
0
0
438.162
11.405.647
11.399.765
7.977.782
-
1.207.200
1.206.822
0
0
953.158
6.452
2.001.593
8.544.633
4.383.988
369.093
28.365.014
6.043.660
2.747.807
13.997
1.526.501
979.370
335.088
0
0
440.897
11.603.341
11.549.472
8.231.172
-
1.207.200
1.264.607
0
0
950.176
5.882
2.010.141
8.664.996
4.551.593
201.487
28.540.987
6.526.553
2.784.825
63.407
1.802.130
1.103.657
373.058
0
0
399.476
11.309.651
11.232.009
7.807.540
-
1.207.200
1.202.990
0
0
908.110
53.869
1.989.867
8.728.146
4.536.422
201.487
1.207.200
1.344.014
0
0
873.255
77.642
1.972.881
8.731.902
4.586.608
201.487
Reservas de Reavaliacao
Ativos Proprios
Ativos de Contr/Colig
Reserva de Lucros
Reserva Legal
Reserva Estatutaria
Reserva p/ Contingencias
Reservas de Luc a Realz
Resv de Retencao de Luc
Resv Esp p/ Div nao Dist
Outras Reservas
Lucros Acumulados
Adiant p fut aum de cap
Divida Fin Moeda Estrang
0
0
0
4.410.092
26.818
0
0
543.951
0
0
3.839.323
-155.283
0
8.878.422
Demonstracao de Resultad
Meses
Receita Bruta
Rec Bruta Merc
Rec Bruta Merc
Impostos sobre
Receita Liquida
Interno
Externo
Vendas
Operac
0
0
0
4.410.092
26.818
0
0
543.951
0
0
3.839.323
-320.784
0
7.570.714
0
0
0
4.410.092
26.818
0
0
543.951
0
0
3.839.323
-332.586
0
7.402.747
0
0
0
3.791.551
60.484
0
0
0
0
0
3.731.067
198.686
0
10.513.530
0
0
0
3.585.816
60.484
0
0
0
0
0
3.525.332
357.991
0
7.303.595
12
12
12
12
12
12
12
17.581.442
18.527.362
19.426.935
20.118.470
20.864.323
21.385.541
-
4.478.297
12.307.646
4.711.192
12.870.250
4.969.474
13.557.888
#REF!
4,57%
5,34%
Custo Produtos Vendidos
Lucro Bruto
8.387.776
3.919.870
8.615.619
4.254.631
8.668.019
4.889.869
Margem Bruta
31,85%
33,06%
36,07%
Despesas Operac Proprias
Despesas com Vendas
Despesas Administrativ
Lucro Operac EBIT
Resultado Financeiro
Receitas Financeiras
Desp Fin e Juros s/ Patr
Despesas Financeiras
Juros s/Patrim Liquido
Outras Rec Desp Operac
Outras Receitas Operac
Outras Despesas Operac
Equivalenc Patrimonial
Lucro Operacional
Resultado nao Operac
Receitas Nao Operac
Despesas Nao Operac
LAIR
Provisao Impost de Rend
IR Diferido
Partic/Contrib Estatut
Participacoes Estatut
Contribuicoes Estatut
2.363.005
1.323.913
1.039.092
1.556.865
-2.220.075
495.917
2.715.992
2.715.992
0
-97.888
952.112
1.050.000
32.619
-728.479
8.249
123.668
115.419
-720.230
-335.455
3.386
142.095
142.095
0
2.479.896
1.422.050
1.057.846
1.774.735
-2.237.556
500.545
2.738.101
2.738.101
0
-159.495
1.218.599
1.378.094
28.610
-593.706
-69.501
189.160
258.661
-663.207
-206.862
-13.177
183.748
183.748
0
2.581.349
1.628.808
952.541
2.308.520
-1.984.831
542.525
2.527.356
2.527.356
0
-254.643
1.319.320
1.573.963
33.156
102.202
-65.518
205.225
270.743
36.684
-298.385
417.214
184.646
184.646
0
0
140.660
-670.916
0
133.170
-760.086
0
135.245
-402.036
Margem Líquida
Crescimento do Lucro
0
0
0
3.791.551
60.484
0
0
0
0
0
3.731.067
120.365
0
8.112.579
16.785.943
Crescimento de Receita
Rever Juros s/Patr Liqui
Partic Acion Minoritar
Lucro Liquido
0
0
0
3.791.552
60.483
0
0
0
0
0
3.731.069
0
0
8.196.254
-5,45%
#REF!
-5,91%
13,29%
-2,97%
-47,11%
5.424.131
14.002.804
3,28%
8.684.542
5.318.262
37,98%
5.645.078
14.473.392
5.935.624
14.928.699
6.143.225
15.242.316
3,36%
3,15%
2,10%
8.659.833
5.813.559
8.830.311
6.098.388
8.976.184
6.266.132
40,17%
40,85%
41,11%
2.593.929
1.738.617
855.312
2.724.333
-2.105.501
567.428
2.672.929
2.672.929
0
-260.912
1.058.039
1.318.951
74.606
432.526
-68.560
124.112
192.672
363.966
-112.620
0
118.389
118.389
0
2.727.565
1.895.152
832.413
3.085.994
-2.064.323
591.029
2.655.352
2.655.352
0
-333.261
1.011.887
1.345.148
31.288
719.698
-37.412
132.376
169.788
682.286
-144.157
-15.171
154.901
154.901
0
2.792.631
1.976.634
815.997
3.305.757
-2.004.317
611.912
2.616.229
2.616.229
0
-430.337
875.494
1.305.831
43.352
914.455
28.453
99.380
70.927
942.908
-282.555
95.509
164.567
164.567
0
2.866.935
1.928.272
938.663
3.399.197
-1.815.809
587.809
2.403.618
2.403.618
0
-443.982
844.756
1.288.738
25.336
1.164.742
28.454
79.466
51.012
1.193.196
-65.043
-104.247
160.528
160.528
0
0
145.484
212.713
0
141.389
545.324
0
176.239
789.148
0
229.922
972.036
1,52%
-152,91%
3,77%
156,37%
5,29%
44,71%
6,38%
23,18%
PROJEÇÃO DE RESULTADO 2007
2007 % da Receita
08/07 (%)
2008 % da Receita 06/05 (%)
2009 % da Receita
1,07
553
1,07
591
Receita Bruta
Receita Operacional Líquida
517
100,00%
7,00%
Custo dos Produtos Vendidos
204
Lucro Bruto
313
60,51%
7,00%
334
60,51%
358
60,51%
Despesas Operacionais
Com Vendas
Gerais e Administrativas
Outras
Total
96
64
20
180
5,90%
11,00%
7,00%
7,00%
5,90%
11,00%
7,00%
109
73
23
206
5,90%
11,00%
34,77%
102
68
21
192
218
Resultado da Equivalência Patrimonial
EBIT
Receita Financeira
Despesa Financeira
Total
Resultado Operacional
100,00%
234
34,77%
0
178
34,4%
45
14
59
8,71%
2,71%
11,42%
7,00%
7,00%
7,00%
7,0%
0
190
34,4%
203
48
15
63
8,71%
2,71%
11,42%
52
16
68
192
205
220
32
34
37
34,4%
Receita Não-Operacional
Despesa Não-Operacional
Resultado Não-Operacional
Resultado Antes dos Tributos
e Participação Minoritária
Imposto de Renda e Contribuição Social
Resultado Antes da Participação Minoritária
Participação Minoritária
Resultado Líquido
Resultado por lote de 1000 ações
0
0,06%
7,00%
0
0,06%
0
160
30,91%
7,00%
171
30,91%
183
30,91%
milhões R$
2009 e
2008 e
2007 e
2006
Ativo Total
Receita Líquida
Lucro Líquido
Pat. Líquido
Dívida Líquida
n.ações
Ebitda
Mg Ebitda
Cotação
LPA
P/L
VPA
P/VPA
ROE
ROA
EO / PL
Margem Bruta
27.721
591
183
9.512
5.185
120
232
39,2%
42,1
1,52
27,63
79,27
0,53
1,92
0,66
55%
60,5%
27.629
553
171
9.403
5.125
120
111
20,1%
42,1
1,42
29,56
78,35
0,54
1,82
0,62
55%
60,5%
27.544
517
160
9.300
4.006
120
118
22,9%
42,1
1,33
31,63
77,50
0,54
1,72
0,58
43%
60,5%
27.464
486
100
8.959
4.883
120
295
60,8%
31,63
0,83
37,96
74,66
0,42
1,12
0,36
55%
1546,9%
Margem Líquida
30,9%
30,9%
30,9%
20,6%
Base 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Perp.
1,07
1,07
1,05
1,05
1,05
1,05
1,05
1,05
1,05
1,04
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Perp.
517
553
591
621
652
685
719
755
793
832
866
34,40%
34,40%
34,40%
34,40%
34,40%
34,40%
34,40%
34,40%
34,40%
34,40%
34,40%
178
190
203
214
224
236
247
260
273
286
298
133
143
153
160
168
177
185
195
204
215
223
(-) Invest. físicos
41
44
47
50
52
55
58
60
63
67
69
(+) Depreciação (20% da Receita Líquida)
52
55
59
62
65
68
72
75
79
83
87
(-) Invest. líquidos
-8
-9
-9
-10
-10
-11
-12
-12
-13
-13
-14
8
9
9
10
10
11
12
12
13
13
14
53
57
61
64
67
71
74
78
82
86
89
80
86
92
96
101
106
111
117
123
129
134
Consolidado
Crescimento Volume
Patrimônio Líquido
530
Endividamento Total (considera crongrm. de amortiz.) 130
Caixa
400
Capitalização Total
660
% Recursos Próprios
80,30%
Custo Médio da Dívida em moeda nacional (102% do CDI)
Valor de Mercado
Valor de Mercado Parcial
Custo Médio da Dívida em moeda estrangeira (Libor + 3% a.a. ou 7% fixo)
Valor de Mercado
Valor de Mercado Parcial
% Dívida em Moeda Nacional
Anos
Base 2004
Receita Líquida
Margem EBIT
EBIT
75%
EBIT (1-Alíquota IR 35%)
(-) Var. capital de giro (3% da Receita)
(+) Todos os itens sem efeito caixa do DRE
(+) Variação de capital
0
(-) Pagamento de principal
(-) Participações obrigatórias (dividendos 33% EBIT)
40%
(=)FCFE (Valor da empresa)
WACC
1,115
Perp.
1,110
1,100
1,100
1,090
1,090
1,090
1,090
2016
1057,18
50,83
1178,75
56,67
1308,41
62,90
1439,26
69,20
1583,18
76,11
1741,50
83,73
1898,23
91,26
2069,08
99,47
2255,29
108,43
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
52,76
54,77
56,86
59,02
61,27
64,19
67,25
69,13
71,72
58,83
61,07
63,40
65,81
68,32
71,57
74,98
77,08
65,30
67,79
70,37
73,05
75,83
79,45
83,23
71,83
74,57
77,41
80,36
83,42
87,39
79,01
82,02
85,15
88,39
91,76
86,92
90,23
93,66
97,23
94,74
98,35
102,09
103,26
107,20
112,56
Participações em controladas
FCFE
Dívida Líquida
FCFF
Nº de ações
FCFE por ação
Dividendo por ação
Yield
Cotação fech. 26/10
Upside potencial
FCFF por ação
1,100
1.935
-270
1.665
120
16,12
0,44
2,76%
13,50
19,44%
13,87
1,090
2458,27
118,19
1,090
2679,51
Perp. = Valor do Fluxo
(I - G)
Perp. =
133,9757
(0,164-0,04)
Perp. =
2679,513
Forecasting Variables:
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Revenue growth factor
Expected gross profit margin
S, G, & A expense % of revenue
Depr. & Amort. % of revenue
Capital expenditure growth factor
Net working capital to sales ratio
Income tax rate
Assumed long-term sustainable growth rate
Discount rate
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
60%
54%
28%
10%
20%
15%
50%
55%
27%
10%
-10%
14%
40%
56%
26%
10%
-15%
13%
30%
57%
25%
10%
-20%
12%
20%
58%
24%
10%
-25%
11%
10%
59%
23%
10%
-30%
10%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
50% 51% 52% 53% 54%
-10%
1% 12% 10% 10%
($1,3) ($1,4) ($1,3) ($1,4) ($1,0)
55%
11%
$0,7
56%
12%
$2,8
57%
13%
$5,2
58%
14%
$7,3
59%
16%
$8,8
$61,8
20%
50%
50%
10%
40%
19%
30%
51%
40%
10%
35%
18%
40%
5% per year after 2011
20%
40%
52%
30%
10%
30%
17%
50%
53%
29%
10%
25%
16%
40%
5%
20%
Valuation Model Outputs:
Gross profit margin
Net operating profit margin
Free cash flow ($ mil)
Terminal value ($ mil)
PV of Company Operations ($ mil)
$11,1
Market Value of Company Assets ($ mil)
$11,6
Years Ending December 31
Actual |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Forecast ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Total revenue
$2.000.000
$2.400.000
$3.120.000
$4.368.000
$6.552.000 $10.483.200 $15.724.800 $22.014.720 $28.619.136 $34.342.963
$37.777.260
Cost of Goods Sold
Gross profit
1.200.000
800.000
1.200.000
1.200.000
1.528.800
1.591.200
2.096.640
2.271.360
3.079.440
3.472.560
4.822.272
5.660.928
7.076.160
8.648.640
9.686.477
12.328.243
12.306.228
16.312.908
14.424.045
19.918.918
15.488.676
22.288.584
Selling, general and administrative expenses
Earnings before interest, taxes, depr. & amort. (EBITDA)
1.200.000
-400.000
1.200.000
0
1.248.000
343.200
1.310.400
960.960
1.900.080
1.572.480
2.935.296
2.725.632
4.245.696
4.402.944
5.723.827
6.604.416
7.154.784
9.158.124
8.242.311
11.676.607
8.688.770
13.599.814
Depreciation and amortization
Earnings before Interest and taxes (EBIT)
Available tax-loss carryforwards
Net taxable earnings
200.000
-600.000
0
0
240.000
-240.000
-600.000
0
312.000
31.200
-840.000
0
436.800
524.160
-808.800
0
655.200
917.280
-284.640
632.640
1.048.320
1.677.312
0
1.677.312
1.572.480
2.830.464
0
2.830.464
2.201.472
4.402.944
0
4.402.944
2.861.914
6.296.210
0
6.296.210
3.434.296
8.242.311
0
8.242.311
3.777.726
9.822.088
0
9.822.088
Federal and State Income Taxes
Net Operating Profit After-Tax (NOPAT)
0
-600.000
0
-240.000
0
31.200
0
524.160
253.056
664.224
670.925
1.006.387
1.132.186
1.698.278
1.761.178
2.641.766
2.518.484
3.777.726
3.296.924
4.945.387
3.928.835
5.893.253
240.000
312.000
436.800
655.200
1.048.320
-1.400.000 -1.890.000 -2.457.000 -3.071.250
-3.685.500
76.000
129.600
212.160
349.440
589.680
($1.400.000) ($1.324.000) ($1.417.200) ($1.283.880) ($1.402.386) ($1.041.113)
1.572.480
-3.316.950
733.824
$687.632
2.201.472
-2.819.408
817.690
$2.841.521
2.861.914
-2.255.526
792.530
$5.176.644
3.434.296
-1.691.645
629.621
$7.317.659
3.777.726
-1.184.151
343.430
$8.830.257
Add back depreciation and amortization
Subtract Capital Expenditures
Subtract New Net Working Capital
Free Cash Flow
200.000
-1.000.000
Terminal value, 2011
$61.811.799
Present Value of Free Cash Flows @ 20%
-1.103.333
-984.167
-742.986
-676.305
Total Present Value of Company Operations
$11.129.331
Plus Current Assets
500.000 from Pie in the Skys' December 31, 2001 Balance Sheet
Total Market Value of Great Expectations' Assets
$11.629.331
-418.400
230.287
793.016
1.203.922
1.418.211
11.409.086
INITIAL INVESTMENT
CASHFLOW DETAILS
$50.000
Initial Investment=
$7.484
Opportunity cost (if any)=
Deprec. method(1:St.line;2:DDB)=
2
0
Other invest.(non-depreciable)=
8,00%
b. Riskless rate=
10%
Tax Credit (if any )=
0,9
2a. Beta
40%
Tax rate on net income=
2
10%
1. Discount rate =
0
Fixed expenses in year 1=
$10.000
Salvage Value at end of project=
Approach(1:Direct;2:CAPM)=
50%
Var. Expenses as % of Rev=
10
Lifetime of the investment
DISCOUNT RATE
$40.000
Revenues in year 1=
c. Market risk premium =
5,50%
d. Debt Ratio =
30,00%
e. Cost of Borrowing =
9,00%
Discount rate used=
10,69%
WORKING CAPITAL
Initial Investment in Work. Cap=
Working Capital as % of Rev=
Salvageable fraction at end=
$10.000
25%
100%
GROWTH RATES
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Revenues
Do not enter
1
10,00%
10,00%
10,00%
10,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
Fixed Expenses
Do not enter
10,00%
10,00%
10,00%
10,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
0,00%
5
6
7
8
9
10
Default: The fixed expense growth rate is set equal to the growth rate in revenues by default.
YEAR
0
1
2
3
4
INITIAL INVESTMENT
Investment
$50.000
- Tax Credit
$5.000
Net Investment
$45.000
+ Working Cap
$10.000
+ Opp. Cost
$7.484
+ Other invest.
$0
Initial Investment
$62.484
SALVAGE VALUE
Equipment
Working Capital
OPERATING CASHFLOWS
Lifetime Index
Revenues
-Var. Expenses
- Fixed Expenses
EBITDA
- Depreciation
EBIT
-Tax
EBIT(1-t)
+ Depreciation
- ∂ Work. Cap
NATCF
($62.484)
Discount Factor
1
Discounted CF
($62.484)
$0
$0
1
$40.000
$20.000
$0
$20.000
$10.000
$10.000
$4.000
$6.000
$10.000
$0
$16.000
1,10685
$14.455
$0
$0
1
$44.000
$22.000
$0
$22.000
$8.000
$14.000
$5.600
$8.400
$8.000
$1.000
$15.400
1,225116923
$12.570
$0
$0
1
$48.400
$24.200
$0
$24.200
$6.400
$17.800
$7.120
$10.680
$6.400
$1.100
$15.980
1,356020666
$11.784
$0
$0
1
$53.240
$26.620
$0
$26.620
$5.120
$21.500
$8.600
$12.900
$5.120
$1.210
$16.810
1,500911474
$11.200
$0
$0
1
$58.564
$29.282
$0
$29.282
$4.096
$25.186
$10.074
$15.112
$4.096
$1.331
$17.877
1,661283865
$10.761
$0
$0
1
$58.564
$29.282
$0
$29.282
$3.277
$26.005
$10.402
$15.603
$3.277
$0
$18.880
1,838792046
$10.268
$0
$0
1
$58.564
$29.282
$0
$29.282
$2.621
$26.661
$10.664
$15.996
$2.621
$0
$18.618
2,035266976
$9.148
$0
$0
1
$58.564
$29.282
$0
$29.282
$486
$28.796
$11.518
$17.278
$486
$0
$17.764
2,252735252
$7.885
$0
$0
1
$58.564
$29.282
$0
$29.282
$0
$29.282
$11.713
$17.569
$0
$0
$17.569
2,493440014
$7.046
$10.000
$14.641
1
$58.564
$29.282
$0
$29.282
$0
$29.282
$11.713
$17.569
$0
$0
$17.569
2,759864079
$15.294
Investment Measures
NPV =
$47.928
IRR =
23,55%
ROC =
60,12%
Book Value (beginning)
Depreciation
BV(ending)
$50.000
$50.000
$10.000
$40.000
$40.000
$8.000
$32.000
BOOK VALUE & DEPRECIATION
$32.000
$25.600
$20.480
$6.400
$5.120
$4.096
$25.600
$20.480
$16.384
$16.384
$3.277
$13.107
$13.107
$2.621
$10.486
$10.486
$486
$10.000
$10.000
$0
$10.000
$10.000
$0
$10.000
Cost of capital
20%
Year
0
Depreciation (for taxes)
Net working capital
Change in net working capital
Net property, plant & equipment
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
10.000
20,00%
550
550
8.000
32,00%
1.289
739
4.800
19,20%
3.261
1.972
2.880
11,52%
4.890
1.629
1.728
11,52%
3.583
(1.307)
576
5,76%
2.002
(1.581)
-
Sales
Less COGS
Less depreciation
Less other costs
(4.000)
523
(837)
(2.000)
(2.200)
12.887
(7.729)
(3.200)
(1.210)
32.610
(19.552)
(1.920)
(1.331)
48.901
(29.345)
(1.152)
(1.464)
35.834
(21.492)
(1.152)
(1.611)
19.717
(11.830)
(576)
(1.772)
EBIT
Less taxes @ 35%
(4.000)
1.400
(4.514)
1.580
748
(262)
9.807
(3.432)
16.940
(5.929)
11.579
(4.053)
5.539
(1.939)
EBIAT
(2.600)
Plus depreciation
Less change in net working capital
-
(2.934)
2.000
(550)
486
3.200
(739)
6.375
1.920
(1.972)
11.011
1.152
(1.629)
7.526
1.152
1.307
3.600
576
1.581
2.002
Cash flow from operations
Less capital investment
Plus capital disposal
Less taxes on capital disposal
(2.600)
(10.000)
-
(1.484)
-
2.947
-
6.323
-
10.534
-
9.985
-
5.757
-
2.002
1.949
(682)
Net cash flow
Present value factor
PV of cash flow
Cumulative PV
Net present value
(12.600)
100%
(12.600)
(12.600)
3.802
(1.484)
83%
(1.237)
(13.837)
2.947
69%
2.047
(11.790)
6.323
58%
3.659
(8.131)
10.534
48%
5.080
(3.051)
9.985
40%
4.013
962
5.757
33%
1.928
2.890
3.269
28%
912
3.802
(2.002)
Pre-Startup
1. CASH ON HAND
[Beginning of month]
2. CASH RECEIPTS
(a) Cash Sales
(b) Collections from Credit Accounts
(c) Loan or Other Cash Injection
3. TOTAL CASH RECEIPTS
[2a + 2b + 2c=3]
4. TOTAL CASH AVAILABLE
[Before cash out] (1 + 3)
Month 1
Month 2
Month 3
Month 4
Month 5
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
5. CASH PAID OUT
(a) Purchases (Merchandise)
(b) Gross W ages (excludes withdrawals)
(c) Payroll Expenses (Taxes, etc.)
(d) Outside Services
(e) Supplies (Office and operating)
(f) Repairs and Maintenance
(g) Advertising
(h) Auto, Delivery, and Travel
(i) Accounting and Legal
(j) Rent
(k) Telephone
(l) Utilities
(m) Insurance
(n) Taxes (Real Estate, etc.)
(o) Interest
(p) Other Expenses [Specify each]
(q) Miscellaneous [Unspecified]
(r) Subtotal
(s) Loan Principal Payment
(t) Capital Purchases [Specify]
(u) Other Start-up Costs
(v) Reserve and/or Escrow [Specify]
(w) Owner's W ithdrawal
6. TOTAL CASH PAID OUT
[Total 5a thru 5w]
7. CASH POSITION
[End of month] (4 minus 6)
ESSENTIAL OPERATING DATA
[Non-cash flow information]
A. Sales Volume [Dollars]
B. Accounts Receivable [End of Month]
C. Bad Debt [End of Month]
D. Inventory on Hand [End of Month]
E. Accounts Payable [End of Month]
F. Depreciation
CHECKING (calculation verification)
[See Guidelines worksheet for details]
CHECK #1
CHECK #2
CHECK #3
CHECK #4
Verified
Verified
Verified
Verified
Annual
25.000.000
$
Annual Sales
$
Cost of goods(Material, labor, subcontractors)
Month
One
Month Ending Balance
Gap
Days
Month
Two
Inventory
$
500.000
8
Cost in Excess
$
1.000.000
Accounts Receivable
$
3.500.000
Billings in excess
$
1.000.000
(15) $
Accounts Payable
$
2.300.000
CASH GAP DAYS
$
Gap
Days
Month
Three
Gap
Days
22.250.000
$
60.959
Three Month
Average
650.000
11
$
850.000
14 $
666.667
11
16
$ 1.200.000
20
$
1.750.000
29 $
1.316.667
22
51
$ 3.750.000
55
$
3.900.000
57 $
3.716.667
54
500.000
(7) $
250.000
(4) $
583.333
(9)
(38) $ 2.100.000
(34) $
1.900.000
(31) $
2.100.000
(34)
23
Average Cost per day
Cash Gap Days
43
65
44
$
$
Borrowing rate
Borrowing Cost per day
Daily
68.493
11%
Gross Margin
Amount of Money
that needs to be borrowed
$
$
23
43
1.425.000
$ 2.642.500
8,5%
8,5%
332
$
615
65
$
3.948.500
$
8,5%
$
920
60.959
43,83
2.672.000
8,5%
$
622
Financial Projection Model
YEAR OF FIRST INPUT DATA
SALES (LAST YEAR)
SALES GROWTH (YEARS +1 TO +5)
COGS/SALES (% OF SALES)
SALES EXPENSE (% OF SALES)
ADMINIST. EXPENSE (% OF SALES)
DEPRECIATION EXPENSE (% FIXED/ASSETS)
INTEREST INCOME LAST YEAR ($)
INTEREST EXPENSE LAST YEAR ($)
INTEREST RATE - DEBT (%)
INTEREST RATE - INVESTMENTS (%)
TAX RATE (% OF B/T INCOME)
LAST PREFERRED STOCK DIVIDEND ($)
LAST YEAR
1983
$6.469
88,00%
7,00%
0,00%
5,00%
$50
$140
36,00%
$0
FUTURE PREFERRED STOCK DIVIDENDS ($)
LAST COMMON STOCK DIVIDEND ($)
FUTURE COMMON DIVIDENDS ($)
BEGINNING CASH BALANCE
MINIMUM CASH BALANCE (% SALES)
BEGIN MARKETABLE SECURITIES
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE (% SALES)
INVENTORIES (% SALES)
OTHER CURR. ASSETS (% SALES)
BEGIN FIXED ASSETS DOLLAR AMOUNT
CHANGE IN FIXED ASSETS YEAR +1
ACCUMULATED DEPRECIATION
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE (% SALES)
TAXES PAYABLE & OTHER ACCRUALS
BEGINNING SHORT TERM DEBT & NOTES
SHORT-TERM LOANS - DO NOT ENTER -->
OTHER CURR. LIABS. (% SALES)
LONG-TERM DEBT & LIABILITIES
NEW LONG TERM DEBT YEAR +1
PREFERRED STOCK
STARTING COMMON STOCK
STARTING RETAINED EARNINGS
STOCK ISSUE YEAR +1
STOCK ISSUE YEAR +2
STOCK ISSUE YEAR +3
STOCK ISSUE YEAR +4
EXTRAORDINARY GAIN / (LOSS) YEAR 0
EXTRAORDINARY GAIN / (LOSS) YEAR +1
INFORMATION FOR VALUATION OF FIRM
BETA OF FIRM'S STOCK (EXISTING) (BL)
6,00%
87,00%
7,00%
0,00%
5,00%
8,50%
6,00%
36,00%
$0
$86
$90
$100
2,00%
$300
10,00%
13,00%
0,00%
$3.463
10,00%
13,00%
0,00%
$338
$31
$42
$10
$0
10,00%
6,00%
$0
PLUG
7,40%
$1.523
10,00%
6,00%
0
PLUG
8,70%
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
$2.242
$0
$0
$0
$0
$0
($118)
$0
$0
$0
$0
1,11
ASSUMED RATE OF GROWTH
5,00%
RISK FREE RATE (T - BOND)
8,49%
FUTURE
YEARS
INCOME STATEMENT
SALES
INTEREST ON MARK. SECS. & CASH
COGS
GROSS PROFIT
SALES/DISTRIBUTION EXPENSE
ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSE
DEPRECIATION EXPENSE
EXTRAORDINARY GAIN (LOSS)
EBIT
INTEREST EXPENSE (S/T & L/T DEBT)
PROFIT BEFORE TAX
TAX EXPENSE
PROFIT AFTER TAX
PREFERRED STOCK DIVIDENDS
COMMON STOCK DIVIDENDS
EARNINGS RETAINED
LAST YEAR
$6.469
$50
$5.693
$826
$453
$0
$173
($118)
$318
$140
$178
$64
$114
$0
$86
$28
YEAR +1
$6.857
$26
$5.966
$918
$480
$0
$190
$0
$248
$146
$102
$37
$65
$0
$90
($25)
YEAR +2
$7.269
$27
$6.324
$972
$509
$0
$192
$0
$271
$132
$139
$50
$89
$0
$90
($1)
YEAR +3
$7.705
$36
$6.703
$1.037
$539
$0
$193
$0
$305
$129
$175
$63
$112
$0
$90
$22
YEAR +4
$8.167
$50
$7.105
$1.112
$572
$0
$196
$0
$344
$129
$215
$77
$137
$0
$90
$47
YEAR +5
$8.657
$67
$7.532
$1.192
$606
$0
$194
$0
$392
$129
$263
$95
$168
$0
$90
$78
BALANCE SHEET
CASH
MARKETABLE SECURITIES
EXCESS CASH
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE
INVENTORIES
OTHER CURRENT ASSETS
FIXED ASSETS
ACCUMULATED DEPRECIATION
TOTAL ASSETS
$100
$300
$0
$647
$841
$0
$3.463
$0
$5.351
$137
$300
$0
$686
$891
$0
$3.801
($190)
$5.625
$145
$300
$0
$727
$945
$0
$3.832
($382)
$5.567
$154
$300
$139
$770
$1.002
$0
$3.874
($575)
$5.664
$163
$300
$371
$817
$1.062
$0
$3.884
($771)
$5.826
$173
$300
$642
$866
$1.125
$0
$3.884
($965)
$6.025
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE
TAXES PAYABLE & OTHER ACCRUALS
SHORT TERM LOANS & NOTES (With Interest)
NEW SHORT-TERM LOANS REQUIRED
OTHER CURRENT LIABILITIES
LONG-TERM DEBT/LIABILITIES
PREFERRED STOCK
COMMON STOCK
RETAINED EARNINGS
TOTAL LIABILTIES AND EQUITY
$647
$388
$0
$72
$479
$1.523
$0
$2.242
$0
$5.351
$686
$411
$0
$191
$597
$1.523
$0
$2.242
($25)
$5.625
$727
$436
$0
$33
$632
$1.523
$0
$2.242
($26)
$5.567
$770
$462
$0
$0
$670
$1.523
$0
$2.242
($4)
$5.664
$817
$490
$0
$0
$711
$1.523
$0
$2.242
$44
$5.826
$866
$519
$0
$0
$753
$1.523
$0
$2.242
$122
$6.025
ESTIMATE DEBT/EXCESS CASH
TRIAL ASSETS
TRIAL LIABILITIES AND EQUITY
PLUG: DEBT (EXCESS CASH)
$5.351
$5.279
$72
$5.625
$5.434
$191
$5.567
$5.534
$33
$5.525
$5.664
($139)
$5.455
$5.826
($371)
$5.383
$6.025
($642)
PERFORMANCE MEASURES
ROE
ROA
RETURN ON SALES
TIMES INTEREST EARNED
TOTAL DEBT TO ASSETS
LONG TERM DEBT TO ASSETS
SHORT TERM DEBT TO ASSETS
DEBT TO EQUITY
EARNINGS PER SHARE
CURRENT RATIO
QUICK RATIO
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLE TURNOVER
AVERAGE COLLECTION PERIOD
INVENTORY TURNOVER
FIXED ASSET TURNOVER
CASH FLOW RETURN ON ASSETS
5,09%
2,13%
1,76%
2,27
2,94%
1,16%
0,95%
1,70
4,01%
1,60%
1,22%
2,05
5,01%
1,98%
1,46%
2,35
6,01%
2,36%
1,68%
2,66
7,11%
2,79%
1,94%
3,03
29,81%
28,46%
1,35%
0,71
30,48%
27,07%
3,40%
0,77
27,95%
27,36%
0,59%
0,70
26,89%
26,89%
0,00%
0,68
26,14%
26,14%
0,00%
0,67
25,28%
25,28%
0,00%
0,64
$0,51
$0,29
$0,40
$0,50
$0,61
$0,75
1,19
0,66
1,07
0,60
1,16
0,64
1,24
0,72
1,34
0,82
1,45
0,93
10,00
36,50
6,77
1,87
----
10,00
36,50
6,69
1,90
1,29%
10,00
36,50
6,69
2,11
7,24%
10,00
36,50
6,69
2,34
7,51%
10,00
36,50
6,69
2,62
8,54%
10,00
36,50
6,69
2,97
9,16%
Earnings Before
Interest & Taxes
(EBIT)
$318
$248
$271
$305
$344
$392
PLUS
Depreciation
N/A
$190
$192
$193
$196
$194
MINUS Net
Increase in
Property, Plant &
Equipment at
Cost
N/A
$338
$31
$42
$10
$0
MINUS Increase
in Accounts
Receivable
N/A
$39
$41
$44
$46
$49
MINUS Increase
in Inventories
N/A
$50
$53
$57
$60
$64
PLUS Increase in
Accounts Payable
N/A
$39
$41
$44
$46
$49
PLUS Increase in
Taxes Payable
N/A
$23
$25
$26
$28
$29
EQUALS = Cash
from Operations
N/A
$72
$403
$425
$498
$552
LESS: Tax as %
EBIT
N/A
$89
$98
$110
$124
$141
EQUALS = Free
Cash Flow or
Unlevered Free
Cash Flow
N/A
$305
$316
$374
$411
($17)
UNLEVER BETA & CALCULATE WACC
= Existing Beta of Firm's Stock
LEVERED BETA
1,11
= Existing Debt / Equity Ratio
EXISTING D/E RATIO
0,71
= BL / ( 1+ D/E )
Note: D/E = DEBT to EQUITY
UNLEVERED BETA
0,65
ASSUMED MARKET RISK
PREMIUM (Enter Value)
COST OF UNLEVERED
EQUITY
8,40%
13,94%
D/E = 1.00
D/E = 2.33
D/E = 9.00
=
RSU = RF + (B UL*Market Risk Premium)
WACC = [(% Debt) * (KD) * (1 - T)] + [(% Equity) * (RF +(BL * (MRP))]
CALCULATION OF WACC
WACC AT EXISTING D/E
D/E = .111
D/E = .428
= Assumed Historical Market Risk Premium (Note: RM -RF)
12,67%
13,70%
13,40%
13,53%
14,71%
17,81%
CASH FLOW TO CAPITAL
% DEBT
41,6%
10,00%
30,00%
% EQUITY
58,4%
90,00%
70,00%
KD
BETA
1,11
0,72
0,93
8,50%
9,49%
10,49%
Note: Cost of Debt (before
tax) increases as D/E ratio
increases, from RF + 1% to
RF + 5%.
50,00%
70,00%
90,00%
50,00%
30,00%
10,00%
1,30
2,16
6,49
11,99%
14,99%
19,99%
YEAR +1
YEAR +2
YEAR +3
YEAR +4
YEAR +5
$316
$374
$411
($17)
$305
TERMINAL VALUE - WITH
GROWTH
TERMINAL VALUE - NO
GROWTH
$5.906
$5.357
PV FACTOR AT EXISTING
WACC
NPV
PV FLOWS TO CAPITAL
AT ASSUMED GROWTH
RATE AFTER LAST YEAR
$4.157
NPV
0,8875
0,7877
0,6992
0,6205
0,5508
DCF YR. 1
DCF. YR. 2
DCF YR. 3
DCF YR. 4
DCF YR. 5 +
DCF TV
($15)
DCF YR. 1
$241
DCF. YR. 2
$221
DCF YR. 3
$232
DCF YR. 4
PV FLOWS TO CAPITAL
AT NO GROWTH AFTER
LAST YEAR
$3.855
TOTAL VALUE OF FIRM AT ASSUMED GROWTH
RATE LESS DEBT
$2.083
DCF Value of Firm Minus Existing Debt
TOTAL VALUE OF FIRM
WITH NO GROWTH LESS
DEBT
$1.781
DCF Value of Firm Minus Existing Debt
($15)
$241
$221
VALUE OF FIRM & VALUE OF EQUITY AT VARIOUS D/E RATIOS
D / E RATIOS
0,111
0,428
1,000
2,330
WACC
13,70%
13,40%
13,53%
14,71%
TOTAL VALUE OF FIRM AT ASSUMED GROWTH
$3.985
$4.033
$4.012
$3.823
RATE AFTER TERMINAL
YEAR
VALUE OF FIRM AT
ASSUMED RATE OF
$1.911
$1.959
$1.938
$1.749
GROWTH LESS EXISTING
DEBT
$232
9,000
17,81%
$3.376
$1.302
$3.479
DCF YR. 5 +
DCF TV
$3.176
Assumed
YEAR 6
With
Growth
$431
No
Growth
$411
(D1 / k - g)
(D1 / k - g)
NOPAT
5.242
5.569
6.660
8.328
7.524
Annual EVA Summary
($ in Thousands)
Total Invested Capital and Cost of Capital
Year
1
Capital Employed:
Debt
Equity
Book Value of Capital
Adjustments:
Capitalized R&D
2
3
4
5
35.300
21.000
34.100
22.000
32.900
26.700
32.850
28.700
29.150
33.039
56.300
56.100
59.600
61.550
62.189
6.901
6.751
6.662
6.680
6.600
Depreciation
Goodwill
-
-
-
-
-
Present Value of Operating Leases
10.558
12.645
11.678
9.700
7.400
Total Adjusted Capital
73.759
75.495
77.940
77.929
76.188
Pre-Tax
Cost of Capital:
Debt (Kd)
Equity
W eighted Average (Kw)
6,5%
20,0%
12,6%
Tax Rate
34,0%
After-Tax
Weighting
4,3%
20,0%
11,4%
55%
45%
Annual EVA Summary
($ in Thousands)
Economic Value Added
Year
1
2
3
4
5
NOPAT
5.242
5.569
6.660
8.328
Capital Cost
8.379
8.576
8.854
8.852
(3.137)
(3.006)
(2.193)
(525)
(1.130)
(2.040)
(4.217)
(5.985)
(6.457)
(7.587)
7,1%
7,4%
8,5%
10,7%
9,9%
11,4%
11,4%
11,4%
11,4%
11,4%
-4,3%
-4,0%
-2,8%
-0,7%
-1,5%
Annual EVA
Current Value of Cumulative EVA
NOPAT Return on
Adjusted Capital
Return Hurdle (cost of capital)
Value Added (-Shortfall)
7.524
8.655
Other Performance Measures
EBIT
EBITDA
4.350
5.365
6.769
8.088
8.638
13.000
14.300
15.730
17.303
19.033
Sales Growth
-12,7%
10,0%
10,0%
10,0%
10,0%
Operating Earnings Growth
-34,8%
17,8%
27,0%
23,4%
20,8%
Net Earnings Growth
5,7%
-76,3%
39,6%
40,2%
25,2%
Operating Margin
4,5%
4,8%
5,6%
6,2%
6,9%
Net Profit Margin
1,7%
2,1%
2,7%
3,1%
3,0%
EBITDA Margin
12,9%
13,1%
13,0%
12,8%
12,0%
Return on Equity (ROE)
8,0%
10,6%
12,3%
14,3%
10,3%
Return on Net Assets (RONA)
2,9%
4,1%
5,4%
6,5%
5,9%
1,1
1,1
1,1
1,1
1,1
Sales / Gross Fixed Assets
Current EBIT
$1.535,00
Current tax rate =
(in currency)
36%
Capital Expenditures
$550,00
(in currency)
Depreciation =
$400,00
(in currency)
Change in Working Capital =
$160,00
(in currency)
Do you want to change the capital expenditure/depreciation ratio?
If so, enter capital expenditures as a percent of depreciation
Debt ratio =
29,97%
If negative, enter zero.
Yes
(Yes or No)
125%
( in percent)
Are you directly entering the cost of equity? (Yes or No)
No
If yes, enter cost of equity =
(in percent)
If no, enter the inputs for the CAPM
Beta of the stock =
1,1
Riskfree rate =
7%
(in percent)
Risk Premium=
5,50%
(in percent)
Enter the cost of debt =
8,50%
Expected Growth Rate =
This is a pre-tax cost of borrowing.
5%
(in percent)
The expected growth rate for a stable firm
cannot be significantly higher than the nominal
growth rate in the economy in which the firm
operates. It can be lower.
Warnings:
This is the output from the Model
Firm Details: from inputs on prior page
EBIT (1- tax rate) =
$982,40
- (Capital Spending - Depreciation)
$100,00
- Change in Working Capital
$160,00
Free Cashflow to Firm =
Cost of Equity =
$722,40
13,05%
5,44%
Cost of Debt =
10,77%
Cost of Capital =
Expected Growth rate =
5,00%
Value of Firm
Value
$20.507,03
$16.055,75
$13.147,56
$11.098,61
$9.577,10
$8.402,60
$7.468,55
Value vs. Expected Growth
$25.000,00
ValueofStock
Growth rate
7,00%
6,00%
5,00%
4,00%
3,00%
2,00%
1,00%
$13.147,56
$20.000,00
$15.000,00
$10.000,00
$5.000,00
$0,00
7,00% 6,00% 5,00% 4,00% 3,00% 2,00% 1,00%
Expected Growth Rate

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