Conferência da APVGN - Associação Portuguesa do Veículo a Gás

Transcrição

Conferência da APVGN
Lisboa, 30 de Setembro de 2014
“AS MUDANÇAS no SISTEMA de TRANSPORTES
e o PAPEL do GÁS NATURAL”
António Costa Silva
30 de Setembro de 2014
Presidente da Comissão Executiva
1
Sumário
1. As Mudanças na Matriz Energética Mundial
2. O Impacto no Sistema de Transportes
3. O Papel do Gás Natural
António Costa Silva – Presidente da Comissão Executiva
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1. As Mudanças na Matriz Energética Mundial
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POPULATION
7 billion people
GDP
65 trillion US$
2030
2012
WORLD CHALLENGES
POPULATION
8,5 billion people
GDP
130 trillion US
CAR FLEET
CAR FLEET
800 million cars
3 billion cars
OIL USE in DEVELOPED WORLD
OIL USE
14 barrels/person/year
Billions of people with better incomes
go from 3 barrels/person/year up to 3
OIL USE in DEVELOPING WORLD
or 4 times more
3 barrels/person/year
WORLD ENERGY MATRIX
. Oil Production is 5 times greater than
in 1957
. Renewables have established a more
secure foundation
. Oil/Coal /Natural Gas provide 80% of
supply
WORLD ENERGY MATRIX
. Dominance of Natural Gas?
. Consolidation of Renewables
. Solution for the transport system:
(electric/biofuels/GTL//fuel-cells)?
ELECTRICITY
ELECTRICITY
1,5 billion people without access
. Wide access and needs
WATER
WATER
700 million people with scarce resources
. How to lift restrictions?
4
GLOBALIZATION OF
OIL DEMAND
OIL-SUPPLY CAPACITY
IS GROWING
•85% of growth from
developing countries
•Combined effects of income
and population growth
OIL PRICE VOLATILITY
•Departure of oil prices from
economic fundamentals
•Oil price 25% above marginal
cost of production
•Improved recovery efficiency
•Role of unconventional oil
•Impact of Gas Shale Revolution
•Technology improvements
•Expansion of oil output
KEY
FEATURES
of the OIL
and the
GAS
MARKETS
UNPARALLEL
INVESTMENT CYCLE
GEOPOLITICAL EFFECTS
•Market instability
•Perception of “supply” disruptions
•The “fear factor”
•Long-term oil price above 70
US$/bbl
DE-CONVENTIONALIZATION
OF OIL SUPPLY
•US Gas Shale Revolution
•Impact on Oil Shale and Tight
Oil
•Build-up of US, Venezuela and
Canadian production capacity
•Brazil and Atlantic Basin PreSalt-discoveries
FINANCIALIZATION
OF OIL
•Commodity but also financial
asset
•From 2003 investment growing
1.5 trillion US$ every 3 years
•Investment in 2012 may reach
a new record (600 billion US$)
•Strong build-up of production
capacity
•New era of oil pricing dynamics
5
THE GEOPOLITCS OF OIL
Source: FT, 30th March 2011
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ENERGY GAME CHANGERS in XXI CENTURY
UNCONVENTIONAL GAS
INSTABILITY in PRODUCING
COUNTRIES and THREATS
to SUPPLY
INDUSTRY CATASTROPHIC
ACCIDENTS (e.g. OFFSHORE OIL Spills)
and PUBLIC IMAGE
EMERGENCE of PACIFIC BASIN as
TOP ENERGY CONSUMER
FUKUSHIMA NUCLEAR
ACCIDENT
CLIMATE CHANGE and
ENVIRONMENTAL REVOLUTION
8
PRODUCTION SOLUTION:
HYDRAULIC FRACTURING
•Fracture Technology is responsible for
USA success in gas shales

Use large amount of
water in a short period
of time to develop a gas well
Addition of sand or other
material (proppants) to the
fluid to keep induced fractures
open
 Most wells are horizontal with
one or more horizontal legs
extending to the target sections
 The legs may extend more than
2 Km from the surface location
of the well
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10
GROWTH in FUEL
DEMAND
DEMOGRAPHICS
•World population to
increase to 9.5 billion in
2050
•More than 2/3 living in
cities in 2050
•Increase by 40% to 50%
above 2010 levels (2050)
•Driven by trucks, buses,
trains, ships, airplanes
AGING TRANSPORT
INFRASTRUCTURE
•Fuel mix still dependent on
gasoline, diesel, fuel oil and
jet fuel (90%)
•Demand of other fuels
(electric, natural gas)
increase 7 times
URBANIZATION
KEY CHALLENGES
of GLOBAL
TRANSPORTATION
SECTOR
•Megacities to grow from 22
to 100 by 2050
•Additional transport fuel
demand in China and India
•Demand will grow by 250%
till 2050
PRESSURE to REDUCE
CO2 EMISSIONS
CONGESTION
in BIG CITIES
•Total number of cars in
world to increase 2.6
times to 2.5 billion cars
•CO2 emissions in 2010 from
transport sector (23% of total)
•Car emissions 41% of total
transport
•Regional differences
•North America (shale gas) as a
driver
•Latin America (biofuels)
•Asia/China (push for electric
mobility)
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2. O Impacto no Sistema de Transportes
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TRANSPORTATION FUELS TO SEE RISING DEMAND
Source: Exxon Mobil, the 2010 Outlook for Energy: A view to 2030
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THE GASEIFICATION of
US ECONOMY
SECULAR DOWNTURN of US
FUEL CONSUMPTION
•
Gas replacing coal-power plants
•
GAS in the transport sector
(cities/trucks)
EMERGING TRENDS in US
TRANSPORT SECTOR
TECHNOLOGY IS
CHANGING THE WAY WE
LIVE, THE WAY WE WORK
AND THE WAY WE PLAY
•
•
•
•
•Even so US DRIVERS reached
in 2012 4.8 trillion km (14 000
trips to the sun)
The change in way we live,
change the use of energy
Growing urbanization
Peak oil consumption in 2005
Last 7 years US oil demand
dropped by 14%
US LOVE AFFAIR with
CARS SHIFTING?
•
•
•
•
SHIFT in HABITS?
•
•
•
•
•
Car-pooling schemes more
popular in US
ZIPCAR more than 800,000
users
No car taxes, no parking fees,
no mechanics bill, no car
dependence
New generation with new
vision?
The growing “virtualization”
of life and Internet shopping
•
Effect of high oil prices
and financial crisis
Number of passengers in
Amtrak in 2012 the
highest since 1971
Oil consumption in
California in 2012 the
lowest since 1998
Chicago and other cities:
growing “PEDESTRIAN”
and more bicycle lanes
LA public transport
sector reaching records
(9 million passengers per
month in 2012)
15
Energy Road Map and Solutions:
Many Possible Paths Leading to Same “Destination””
16
Potentials of Future Fuels and Powertrains
Source: Daimler Chrysler -2003
17
EXPONENTIAL INCREASE of
WORLD CAR FLEET
•
800 million cars in 2012 vs. 2.5 billion
(2030)
•
¾ of oil produced used in roads
CONVENTIONAL INTERNAL
COMBUSTION ENGINE
•
•
•
ONGOING
TECHNOLOGICAL BATTLE
IN TRANSPORT SYSTEMS
•
•
Business as usual (more
efficiency and ICE fueleconomy)
vs.
Potential new disruptive
technologies (breakthrough
in electric storage/new
generation of batteries/role
of electric cars/fuel-cells/gas
powered vehicles/ /biofuels)
EMERGING TRENDS in
WORLD TRANSPORT
SYSTEM and
IMPLICATIONS for
FUTURE
•Oil accounts for 95% of
Transport Fuels
Growing “dieselization” of fleet
The Rankine cycle applied to ICE
CAFE in USA (4.3 liters/100 km by
2025)
ON GOING REVOLUTION
IN SUPPLY PATTERNS
•
More gas
•
•
•
More unconventionals
Role of LNG
16 million cars running on
gas (50% in Asia)
Gas can be very competitive
in terms of prices specially in
US
•
ELECTRICAL VEHICLES
PENETRATION?
•
•
In the US market more than 56
models of hybrid-electric
vehicles and battery-electric
vehicles
In 2012 sales of electric cars
increased 61% (500,000 cars
means 3,25% of the market)
18
TRANSPORTS: NEW PARADYGM
Electric Cars
v
i
D
Conventional
Vehicles
s
r
e
a
c
i
if
HN
C
TE
O
G
LO
Y
n
o
ti
TR
R
FE
S
AN
HYDROGEN (Fuel Cells Vehicles)
No CO2 Emissions
HYBRID
(Conventional Fuels+ Electric motor)
Minim CO2 Emissions
FLEXI-FUEL
(Biofuels + Conventional
Low CO2 Emiissions
Improved Conventional Vehicles
( Lightweight Materials)
Today
Tomorrow
19
RISE of THE AUTOMOTIVE PATENT TECH
WARS
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THE FUTURE of WORLD ENERGY MATRIX
IEA : Global Energy use will increase 50% till 2030
By 2030 oil still important on world’s energy
To smooth the DEMAND growth it is not possible to roll back economic
growth
WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
Find new technologies
Find alternatives to oil that can be:
- Economically competitive
- Convenient
- Reliable
21
3. O Papel do Gás Natural
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THE FUTURE OF NATURAL GAS
Gas should make the world a cleaner, safer place
Source: The Economist, 6th August 2011
23
Fonte: Global Transport Scenarios 2050 (World Energy Council
24
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CNG
NATURAL GAS
ADVANTAGES
COMPARED
to GASOLINE and DIESEL
•Reached significant size
•11.5 million vehicles in
2009
•Mainly Pakistan,
Argentina, Brazil, Iran,
India
LPG
•Reached significant size
•Market share of 16 million
vehicles in 2011
•Mostly in Turkey, South
Korea, Poland, Italy,
Australia
•3% of global car fleet
•Gas is cheaper (cost effect)
•More abundant
•More widely spread supplies
•Emits less CO2
ROLE of NATURAL
GAS as a KEY
ALTERNATIVE
TRANSPORT FUEL
NATURAL GAS
DISADVANTAGES
•Efficency of NG-Engines
EFFECT of GAS
REVOLUTION in US
•Increasing penetration in trucks
and taxi fleets of big cities
•LNG as a very competitive fuel
for boats/shipping
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MATRIZ ENERGÉTICA: PORTUGAL e MUNDO
SITUAÇÃO
ACTUAL
ENERGIAS
•
PETRÓLEO
•
•
GÁS NATURAL
•
•
CARVÃO
NUCLEAR
•
43% do consumo de
energia primária do
país
Dominante no
sistema de
transportes
20% do consumo de
país
Importante para a
geração eléctrica e
térmica
8% do consumo de
país
Importante para a
geração eléctrica e
térmica
• Não existe em
Portugal
• Arrefecimento na sua
utilização depois do
desastre de
Fukushima
• Há 440 centrais
nucleares no mundo;
França 75% da
electricidade
VANTAGENS
•
•
Competitivo mas
preços a subirem
Versatilidade
• Procura estável ou em
ascensão
• Reservas abundantes
• Preço competitivo
• 30% mais eficiente que
o carvão
• Reservas grandes nos
EUA, China, etc.
FUTURO
DESVANTAGENS
•
•
•
Poluente
Preço a subir
Dependência de
países instáveis
•
•
Declínio da sua
dominação
11 anos seguidos a
perder “Share”
• Menos poluente dos
combustíveis fósseis
• Idade dourada do gás
• Combustível de
transição e destino
• Muito poluente
• Em declínio
• Competitivo
• Energia limpa, sem
emissões de CO2
• Competitividade do
ponto de vista
económico
• Gestão dos resíduos
radioactivos
• Preocupação com a
segurança
• Integração na rede
eléctrica nacional
• Reactores de 4ª
Geração mais seguros
mas ainda não
comerciais
• ITER/Fusão Nuclear
(2050)
30
IMAGEM TÉRMICA do
DESPERDÍCIO de ENERGIA
Washington, 2012
Estrada Congestionada
Veículos em filas lentas
Só 15% da energia fornecida
pela gasolina é utilizada
31
TRANSPORTES: QUESTÕES
•
Enorme dependência externa do petróleo e seus derivados;
•
Poluição elevada e emissões de CO2;
•
Congestionamento do tráfego nas cidades, mais desperdício e baixa de
produtividade;
•
Volume desproporcionado do transporte individual em relação ao público;
•
Portugueses não têm hábito de utilizar preferencialmente os transportes
públicos;
SOLUÇÔES
•
Desenvolver um novo paradigma para a mobilidade urbana baseado no
transporte público;
•
Criação de uma nova cultura com restrições na circulação do carro individual e
dificuldades de estacionamento nos centros urbanos de alta densidade;
•
Rever políticas de planeamento e ordenamento urbano;
•
Apelo e educação para a utilização dos transportes públicos;
•
Melhor gestão de acessibilidade às cidades e soluções de integração com a rede
de transportes públicos.
32
OBRIGADO
33

Conferência da APVGN - Associação Portuguesa do Veículo a Gás

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