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of secondary
Public Disclosure Authorized ReportNo. 10564-BR SecondaryEducationand Training in Brazil: Adapting to New EconomicRealities (In Two Volumes) Volume l: ExecutiveSummary and Main Text Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized June8, 1992 HumanResources OperationsDivision CountryDepartmentI LatinAmericaand the CaribbeanRegionalOffice FOR OFFICIAL USEONLY MI ,1RF': Cu'HECOPY >o rc,rtf . , H. iEBJN'.U lJ064---PR X:,ib5 X" / Typje: (CC) I7 0 ' LA1HR L of the WorldBank Document Thisdocumenthasa restricteddistributionand may be usedby recipients only in the performanceof their official duties.Its contentsmaynot otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization. CUJRRENCYfEQUI,VALENTS CurrencyUnit = = = New Cruzado(January1989-March1990) Cruzado(fromFebruary1986to Jr'-urary 1989) Cruzeiro(priorto February1986) A-VERGE EXCHANGERATES NCz$1.00 = USS0.16390(November16, 1989) USS 1.00 = NCz$6.10000(November16, 1989) 1988 US$ 1.00 = Cz$262.02 1987 US$ 1.00 = Cz$ 39.23 1986 USS1.00 = Cz$ 13.66 1985 US$ 1.00 = Cr$ 6.20 FlSCALEAR January 1 - December 31 FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY SECONDARY EDUCATION IN BRAZIL: ADAPTING TO NEW ECONOMIC REALITIES TABLE OF CONTENTS GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS . ......................................... iv PREFACE . ...................................................... PREFACIO ................................................ vi vii .......................... EXECUTIVE SUMMARY (English) ............ RECOMMENDED MATRIX OF POLICY MEASURES ......................... SUMARIO (Portuguese) .............................................. ESQUEMA DAS DIRECTRIZES POLITICAS RECOMENDADAS ................. I. CHANGING EDUCATIONAL NEEDS OF THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY .1 A. B. C. D. II. III. IV. Brazilian Educational Attainment .1 Education Investment and Postwar Economic Growth .3 Secondary Education and Training in an Evolving Economy. Education and Training Investments: Setting Priorities. 4 6 SECONDARY AND VOCATION EDUCATION IN BRAZIL: CRITICAL CHARACTERISTICS ................................. 10 A. B. C. D. E. 10 16 24 32 35 Enrollment Trends . ........................................ Diversity of Secondary Education ................................ ............................ Role of Private Sector ........... Access and Equity . ........................................ Policy, Organization and Administration ............................ IMPROVING SCHOOL QUALITY AT REASONABLE COST ................ 39 A. B. C. 39 42 52 Quality and Cost-Effectiveness .................................. Improving Cost-Effectiveness .................................. Opportunities for the 1990s .................................... THE FINANCING OF SECONDARY EDUCATION AND TRAINING: ....................... EFFICIENCY AND EQUITY ISSUES ......... A. B. V. Viii xv xvii xxiv Equity Issues in Brazilian Secondary Technical Education ................. Efficiency: Incentive Problems of Brazilian Vocational Training .............................................. SCENARIOS, ISSUES AND OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE ................. Thisdocumenthas a restricteddistributionand maybe used by recipientsonly in the performance of theirofficialduties.Its contentsmay not otherwisebe disclosedwithoutWorldBankauthorization. 55 54 58 63 - A. B. C. ii - Constraintsto Increased SecondaryEnrollments ....................... DemandProjections and irtnancialImplic3tions ....................... Issues for this Decade ....................................... 63 65 69 LIST OF TABLES 1.1 1.2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 3.1 3.2 5.1 5.2 5.3 SecondarySchool EnrollmentRates: Brazil and SelectedCountries, 1 1965and 1986 ............................................... ChangingStructure of Employmen+and Growth in Employmentby Sector, 5 1950-1985.................................................. Public SecondaryEducationand Training: -Apenditureand 15 Enrollmentsby Type of School, 1985 .. ............................. Annual Expenditureper Student at Different Schools, 1985 and Mean 23 Student AchievementTest Scores, November 1988 ....................... Private School Enrollments,Tuition and Family Incomeby Income Quartile, 1982 .26 Income and Access in Brazilian Schooling, 1982.33 Annual Public Subsidyper Studentat Different Schools, 1985 and 34 .............. Percent of Studentsfrom Low-IncomeFamilies, 1988 ....... EstimatedAverage Public Spendingper SecondaryStudentin Selected Middle-IncomeCountries, 1985.40 Costs per Graduateat Different BrazilianSecondarySchools .41 SecondarySchool EnrollmentProjections, 1990-2010: 66 Alternativ. Scenarios ............ Annual Public SecondaryEducationCosts Under Alternative 67 Scenarios, AssumingTrend Growth ....................... AlternativePublic Costs of 100,000 AdditionalSecondarySchool 68 ................................................. Entrants . LIST OF CHARTS I II Im IV V VI VII SecondarySchool Enrollments ..................................... Growth of VocationalTraining, 1940-1987 ............................. SecondarySchool Educationand Training Enrollmentsby Type of School, 1985 .......................................... Public SecondaryEnrollmentsand Unit Costs, y Type of School, 1985 ........................................... EstimatedTotal Spendingon SecondaryEducation, 1985.25 Distributionof Private Schools, by MonthlyTuition Levels in Sao Paulo, Parana and Ceara, 1987and 1988.28 NrivateSecondarySchool Enrollmentsand Real Wages, 1980-87.29 11 13 14 16 LIST OF BOXES Box 1 Measuring Educational(External)Efficiency. 9 - Box 2 Pox 3 Box 4 iii - Are Private Schools More Cost-Effective? ........ .................. Are BrazilianTeachers Overpaid? . ............................... Chile's EducationReforms .................................... 44 46 50 STATISTICALAPPENDIX ........................................ BIBLIOGRAPHY....................................... 75 141 VOLUME TWO: ANNEXES ANNEX I : Math and PortugueseAchievementin SecondarySchools in Brazil ANNEX II : The Finance and Costs of SecondaryEducationin Brazil ANNEX III : Demandfor and Supply of Private SecondaryEducationin Brazil ANNEX IV : Modelo Para Projego da MatrfculaNo SegundoGrau - Brasil (ProjectionsModel fro ForecastingSecondarySchoolEnrollmentsin Brazil) - iv - GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS CEE ConselhoEstadual de Educagao State Council on Education CEFAM Centro de FormaqLoe Aperfeicoainentodo Magisterio Teacher Training Centers CENDEC Centro de TreinamentoPara 0 DesenvolvimentoEconomico Training Center for EconomicDevelopment CQP Cursos de QualificacaoProfissional (SENAI) SENAI ProfessionalTraining Course EDUTEC Programa de Melhoria do Ensino Tecnico Industriale Arricola Program for strengtheningIndustrialand AgriculturalTechnicalEducation FAE Fundo de AssistenciaEscolar Founration for Assistanceto Students FINSOCIAL Fundo de InvestimentoSocial Social Investnent Fund FUNDACENTRO FundagaoJorge Duprat Figueiredode Segurancae Medicinado Trabalho NationalFoundationfor OccupationalSafety, Hygiene and Medicine FUVESP Fundacao Vestibulardo Estado de Q o Paulo UniversityEntrance Testing Service of the State of Sao Paulo HH Domicilio Houtsehold HP Habilitagio Profissional(SENAI) SENAI ProfessionalTraining Program IBGE Fundagio InstitutoBrasileiro de Geografiae Estatistica BrazilianInstitute of Geographyand Statistics ICM Imposto sobre Circulagaode Mercadorias State Value-AddedTax INEP Instituto Nacional de Estudose PesquisasEducacionais National Institute for Studies and Researchon Education IPEA Institutode PlanejamentoEconomicoe Social Institute for Economicand Social Planning .MEC Ministerioda Educa5o Ministry of Education MPAS Ministerioda Previdenciae AssistenciaSocial Ministry of Social Security NGO Non-GovernmentalOrganization Org&an zaqao Nlo-Governamental PNAD Pesquisa Nacionalpor Amostra Domiciliar National HouseholdSurvey PNAE Programa Nacional Alirnentag,oEscolar National Program for School Fe.ding PROTEC Programade Expansaoe Melhoriado Ensino Tecnico Program for the Expansionand Improvementof Technical Education SEEC Servigode Estatisticada Educag,o EducationalStatistics Service SENAI Servigo Nacionalde AprendizagemIndustrial National Service for IndustrialTraining SENAC Servico Nacionalde AprendizagemComercial National Service for CommercialTraining SENAR S'-vigo Nacionalde AprendizagemRural National Service for Rural Training SM Salario Minimo MinimumSalary TO TreinamentoOccupacional(SENAI) SENAI OccupationalTraining VTE Vocationaland TechnicalEducation UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientificand Cultural Organization USAID United States Agencyfor InternationalDevelopment - vi - PREFACE This report is based on the findingsof a missio,nwhich visited Brazil in November 1988. The mission wa, ed by Barbara Bruns (senior economist),and-.included Donald Winkler (public administrations-ecialist), World Bank, and c. -ultantsStevenHoenack Oaboreconomist), Joao Batista Gomes-Neto(statistician)and Genuino Bordignon(educationspecialist). The secondaryschool student achievementtests cited in this report were designed and administeredby Dr. Heraldo Viannaof the Carlos Chagas Foundation,Sao Paulo, under contractwith the Ministry of Educationand the World Bank. Marlaine Lockheed of the World Bank contributedto the analysisof the test results (AnnexI). Researchassistant Ayda Kimemiaprepared the StatisticalAppendix, and the report and annexes were processedthrough all stages by Laura Sifuentes. This report owes much to the assistanceand insights of numerous Brazilian government officials, particularly those in the Ministry of Education responsiblefor secondary and technical education, and human resources divisionstaff of IPEA (Institute for Economicand Social Planning). In addition, an early draft of the report benefittedgreatly from the comments of a distinguishedpanel of reviewers comprisedof the followingBrazilian and international educationexperts. None of these reviewers,of course, bears responsibilityfor any errors of fact or interpretationwhich may remain in the report. Dra. Guiomar de Mello, Universityof Sao Paulo; Dra. Teresa Rcserley Neubauerda Silva, Carlos Chagas Foundation; Dr. Arthur Divonzir Gusso, National Institute for Studies and Research on Education; Dr. Alberto de Mello e Souza, Federal Universityof Rio de Janeiro; Dr. Roberto Macedo, Ministry of Economy, Finance and Planning(MEFP); Dr. Ricardo Paes de Barros, Institutefor Economicand Social Planning(IPEA); Dr. Heraldo Vianna, Carlos Chagas Foundation; Dr. Ernesto Schiefelbein,UNESCO; Dr. Mark Blaug, Universityof London; and Dr. Richard Sabot, WilliamsCollege. - vii - PREFACIo Este relat6rio estAbaseado nas conclus6esda missao que visitouo Brasil em novembro de 1988. A missao foi chefiadapor Barbara Bruns (economistasenior) e dela participaramDonald Winkler (especialistaem administragaopUblica)do Banco Mundial,e consultoresStevenHoenack (economIstaespecializadoem mercado do trabalho), Joao Batista Gomes-Neto(estatfstico)e Genuino Bordignon (especialistaem educagco). Os testes de desempenhopara os alunos do segundo grau, mencionadosneste relat6rio, foram preparados e ministradospelo Dr. Heraldo Vianna da Ftudacao Carlos Chagas, de Sgo Paulo, mediantecontrato com o Ministerio da Educacaoe o Banco Mundial. Marlaine Lockheed do Banco Mundialcontribuiupara a analise dos resultadosdos exames (Annex I). Ayda Kimemia,assistentede pesquisa, preparou o Anexo Estatfstico,e Laura Sifuentesprocessouo relat6rio e os anexos, em todos os seus est ,s. Este relat6rio recebeu a valiosacolaboragio e contribuiglo cdevarios funcionariosdo Governo brasileiro, principalmentedo Ministerioda Educagao, encarregadosdo ensino de segundo grau; bem como dos funcionariosda divisao de recursos humanos do Institutode Planejamento Economico e Social ([PEA). Um esboco do relat6rio recebeu tambemo grande beneffciodos comentariosde um ilustre grupo de revisores compostodos seguintesespecialistasem educagio, brasileiros e de nfvel internacional. Naturalmente,nenhum desses especialistas6 responsavelpor qualquer erro referente a fatos ou a interpretagaoque possa haver. Dra. Guiomarde Mello, Universidadede Sao Paulo; Dra. Teresa Roserley Neubauerda Silva, FundacaoCarlos Chagas; Dr. Arthur Divonzir Gusso, INEP; Dr. Alberto de Mello e Souza, UniversidadeFederal do Rio de Janeiro; (MEFP); Dr. Roberto Macedo; Ministerioda Economia,Fazenda e Planejanmento Dr. Ricardo Paes de Barros, IPEA; Dr. Heraldo Vianna; Dr. Ernesto Schiefelbein,UNESCO; Dr. Mark Blaug, Universidadede Londres; e Dr. Richard Sabot, Williams College. EXECUTIVESUMRY i. rhis yea1 , the Braziliansecondaryschool system"ln will graduate approximately 600,000 students. For a country of almost 150 million people, with a labor force of over 50 million and a 16-18year old populationof more than 9 million, 600,000 graduates represent a small trickle of individualsequippedwith the knowledge,skills and potential for higher educationand/or entry into the managerial and professionalstreamsof the world's ninth largest industrialeconomy. ii. The average educationalattainmentof the Brazilianpopulationlags that of other Latin American countries and other middle-incomecountriesby a substantialmargin. In 1980, 60% of the Brazilianlabor fo,ce had either no educationor had not completedprimary school, whereas in Korea the correspondingpercentagewas 16% and in Turkey, 26%. Within South America, only Bolivia has a higher share of the labor force with no educationthan Brazil. iii. The gap between Brazil and othe, countriesis acute at the secndary level. 'n 1987, Brazil's total secondaryenrollmentsrepresented only 37% of the secondary school-agedpopulation, well bMlowthe average for middle-incomedevelopingcountries, 59%. Countriessuch as Chile, with a 70% eiLijllmentrate, and Korea, with 95% of secondaryaged studentsattendingschool, are even further ahead. iv. This report analyzesthe structure and some of the salient problemsof Brazilian secondaryeducation. The report is not exhaustive;it focuses on a few questionsof strategic importancefor Brazil, namely:What shouldbe the balance betweengeneral educationand occupational/technicaltraining at the secondarylevel in the coming decades? What should be the roles and responsibilitiesof the public and private sectors in providingsecondaryeducation? What can be done to improve equalityof access to secondaryeducationand its role in the p'rocessof social mobility? And, above all, in an era when Brazil c.nnot afford to spend more on public servicesof any kind, what can be done to improvepublic school quality with existing educationresources? v. In adopting this strategicperspective,many other issuesof crucial importancefor secondaryeducationare treated only superficially. These include issuesof curriculumcontent, inefficienciesin the pattern of intergovernmentalfinancing and transfers, and, most importantly, problems of teacher quality, training and remuneration. Detailedanalysisof teacher training and the labor market for teachers at both the primary and secondarylevels is critical for a full consideration of the state of Brazilian educationarid for the design of policies to improve educationquality and efficiency. However, to do justice this complex set of issueswas beyond the scope of this report. ., vi. It is clear from even a cursory look at the Brazilianeducationsystem that the overridingproblems are at the primary level, and this has a determininginfluenceon what can be done at the secondarylevel. Indeed, the report conclhdesthat the principal constraint to raising Brazil's exceptionallylow secondaryschool participat, n rate is the low rate of graduates from 1/ This report discussesBraziliansecondaryeducationas it has been structured since the major educationreform of 1971. In Brazil this level is known as "SegundoGrau" and comprisesninth, tenth, eleventhand sometimestwelfth grades. It should not be confusedwith "ensinosecundario," which was part of the pre-1971 system of secondaryschool which covered the fifth to eleventh grades. - ix - primary school. Althoughclose to 100%of children beginprimary school in Brazil, less than 40% of every entering class ever finishes the eight-yearprimary cycle, and the majorityof these students only do so after substantial (and costly)repetition. vii. This report, focusedon secondaryeducatioi. was conceivedin the context of a series of World Bank reports on Brazilianeducation. A 1988 Worid Bank report "Public Spending on Social Programs: Issues and Options" reviewedoverall problemsof reso?!-ceallocation across social sectors and across different levels of the educationsystem. Efficiency ..,ues witbin Brazil's primary, secondaryand higher-leveleducationsystems have been pursued furt'er in a series of reports .0ocused on each level of the educationsystem: a 1986report examinedprimary education,2land a report completed in 1991 analyzedissues in h.gher education.2' The objectiveof the reports on specific levels, includingthe present one, was to examinemajor issues, and i - sifyp "cies that could improvethe allocation and utilizationof public resources at that level. . :ey assu-nptionunderlying the analysisof all four reports is the need foi Brazil to give priority to primary .Aucation,which has the highest economicreturns for society as a whole and is of fundamentalimportancefor the evolution of a cohesive and stable democraticsociety. viii. A major motivationfor undertakingthe present report was to contributeto the ongoing dei.ate in Brazil aboutthe nature of secondaryeducation. Whereasfairly broad consensus exists with respect to the basic objectivesof primary education,very different philosopl>s of secondaryeducationexist, most notably regarding the extent to which secondary schoolingshould provide general educationrather than occupationally-orientedtraining. Comparedto other countries, Brazi! invests reiatively little in general secondary educationand invests heavily in both non-formal occupationaltraining (through the SENAI/SENAC/SENARnetwork)yand formal technical education (through the federal technical schools, SENAI secondaryschools, and technical educationprograms in state secondaryschools). These educationalalternativesnot only equip Brazilian youths with different degrees of cognitiveunderstandingand different sets of skills; they also have different costs. Vocationaltraining and technical educationare much more costly per studenthour. On the other hand, vocationaltraining programs typically involve many fewer hours of instruction. They also result in much less diversified learning. ix. This report examinesthe efficiencyof current spending on secondaryeducationand vocational training in order to identify reforms that could improve secondary-leveleducationwithout diverting resources away from the primary level, where so much neels to be done. A major obstacle to such reform is the lack of policy coherence and administrativecoordination. The principal problems in secondaryeducationtoday are at the state level, but states lack ideas, resolve and resources for addressing these. On the other hand, the federal government invests substantialmoney and efforts in the federal *echn- ' schools -- an elite network of high quality, high cost schools. But 2/ Brazil: The Finance of Pri.ma Education,World Bank (1986). 31 Higher EducationRefornmin Brazil, World Bank (1991). 4/ SENAI (Servico NaLionalde AprendizagemIndustrial); SENAC (ServicoNacional de AprendizagemComercial); and SENAR (ServicoNacional de AprendizagemRural). x - because of their high costs per student, these are not a viable model for secondaryeducationmore generally in Brazil. Chapter I outlines the low average educationalattainmentof the Brazilianpopulation x. by internaticnalstandards and traces the evolution of the formal educaiionand vocationaltraining systems in the context of Brazilianeconomicdevelopmentover the past forty years. it suggests that while underemphasisof formal secondaryeducationmay not have seriously constrainedBrazil's economicdevelopmentin the past, it may emerge as a constraint in the future. Heavy investmentsin specialized, short-termoccupationaltraining may have compensatedin the past for the weaknessesof the formal school system; SENAI (the publicly-fundedinstitutefor industrial skills training) and SENAC (the sister institutefor commercialskills training) respectivelyt-ain over 5G0,000and 1 million individualsper year. However, as the Brazilian economybecomesmore te ;- .:ologicallysophisticated,more xi. diverse and, most importantly, more open to internationalcompetition,manpowerneeds are changing more rapidly and are increasinglydifficultto foresee. This has two major consequencesfor the labor force and for the educationsystem. First, it suggeststhat the minimumlevels of general education that a worker requires in order to remain flexible and trainablethroughouthis or her working life are increasing. Training courses of 100 hours cannot possibly augment individuals' cognitiveskills to the same extent as three years of secondaryschool. General educationgives individualsa cognitivebase for the developmentof more sophisticatedtechnical skills -- whereas vocationaltraining does not. The dempndfor labor in Brazil, as elsewhere in the world, is becomingincreasinglyintensive in general sKillsand in sophisticatedtechnical skills. Yet in Brazil today, the average urban worker has not completedmore than five years of primary s;hool. Without at least a full primary education and - for many jobs -- a secondary education, workers are unlikely to have the knowledge and adaptabilityrequired for productivityin a rapidly evolvingeconomy. Second, as the pace of technologicalchange increasesit becomesharder and harder to xii. give workers specializedskills training efficientlyin an institute setting, rather than on the job. The costs of keeping training facilitiesup-to-date escalateenormously,and can rapidly drive down the cost-effectivenessof skills training. Technologicalchangealso reduces d.e time that a worker can expect to practice a particular craft and earn a return on specializedtraining. Institute-basedtraining, which served Brazil well during the early, relatively unsophisticatedphases of its industrialization process may be far less appropriatefor the Brazilianeconomyof the 1990sand twenty first century. Failure to adjust educationand training systemsto new econuon-crealitiesmay impede Brazil's future economicevolution. Chapter II describes five critical characteristicsof the secondarysystem that provide xiii. backgroundfor the analysis of policy options. These are: i) the rapid growth of secondary school enrollmentsin the 1960sand 1970s(averaging 11% per year from 1960-1980)and staggtating enrollmentssince ;980; ii) the diversity of secondarylevel educationin Brazil (which in fact has importantadvantages), in terms of course content, administrationand unit costs, and differences in quality that are reflected in significantdifferences in studentachievementon a 1989standardizedtest, controllingfor students' socioeconomicbackgroundand other factors; iiij the importantrole of the private sector in overall supply (with 35% of total enrollments),and the heterogeneouscharacter of private schools (tuitionsrange from roughly US$ 3 per month to over US$ 500 per month; iv) the inequityof public spending on secondary education,with low spendingper student in state and - xi - municipalschools and high subsidiesto a small minority of relatively well-offstudents at federal technical and SENAI secondaryschools; and v) the lack of strategicvision in public policy for secondaryeducationand inefficient.overcentralizedadministrationof public school systems. xiv. Chapter III focuses on quality prob,ems at the secondarylevel. The overriding problem is the low quality of the schools administeredby the states, which 90% of public students attend. Becauseof high repetitionrates, states schoolson average must finance over six student-years of instruction in order to pr( duce each graduate from a three-yearprogram. Dropout rates at state schools are such that of every 100 students who enter, only 42 ever graduate. State schools enjoy far fewer resources per studert than do other Braziliansecondaryschools: spendingper student in state schools averages about U'i$ 250 per year, as ce,npared with over US$ 1,700 at the federal technical schools and more than US$ 1,800 per year at SENAI secondaryschools. But the report points out that spending per studentat state schools is not far from the annual average for public schools in other countries (an estimatodUS$ 234 in Chile, US$ 243 in Colombia). And in these countries, even though the secondaryschool population is less selective, graduationrates are significantlyhigher -raising the possibilitythat other public systemsare doing a more efficientjob of educationthan Brazilianstate schools. xv. The low quality of state schoolswas also evident from the results of the standardized achievementtest of Portuguese and mathematicsadministeredto a sample of 2,600 third-year secondarystudents in four states in 1988.There were significantdifferences in student performance-particularly in mathematics- which cannot be attributedto student backgroundfactors. The lowest average achieVementwas amongstudents in state schools, particularlythose studying at night and in teacher training programs. Studentsin SENAI secondaryschools also scored poorly. Students in the private schools sampled, by comparison,scored consistentlyhigher, and there was no difference in private sclioolsbetween day and night shift students. Students in the elite federal technicalschools scored significantlyabove all other groups, reflectingboth th.ehigh quality of those schools and the selectivityof their students. (Studentsare admittedon the basis of competitiveentrance exams.) xvi. What are the sources of low '-ffectivenessof spending in state schools, and what can be done to improve it? The report concludesthat overcentralization,poor management,and lack of performance incentivesat the school level are the key issues at the state level. It points to a number of policy options for addressingthese problems that have yielded results in other countries. These include: introductionof incentivesfor school performanceand progressivedecentralizationin the directionof school-basedmanagement;regular use of student achievementtests as a basis for evaluatingschool system progress; and policies to improvethe performanceof private schools and stimulate stronger competitionwith the public system. xvii. The chapter notes that the heterogeneityof the Braziliansecondary system and the growing interest in municipalizationof educationin many parts of the country are potentiallystrong assets in improvingeducationquality. They offer opportunitiesfor experimentationwith a variety of different models of school organizationand school system reform and for administratorsand researchersnationwide to evaluate and disseminatesuccessfulapproaches. The chapter concludesthat municipalizationof primary and secondaryeducation,being consideredat present in a growing numberof states, is a potentiallyeffective way to improvethe efficiencyand accountabilityof Brazilian school systems. To achievethese benefits, however, it is imperativethat state and federal authoritiesdevelop strong complementaryroles in order to help equalize revenue disparities across - xii - municipalitiesand to provide technical assistance. Independent,directly-electedlocal school boards might also help ensure the professionalismof municipalschool systems. Policiesto strengthenthe performanceof private schools are an importantpart of an xviii. overall program to improve secondaryeducationquality. The private sector in Brazilianeducation, particularlyat the secondarylevel, accountsfor an importantshare of enrollmentsand, as suggested by the achievementtest data, may be more cost-effectiveon average than most Brazilianpublic education. Governmentpolicies should concentrateon stronger substantiveoversightof private schools, as in fact is the policy at present, and avoid reverting to the counterproductivetuition price controlsoften used in the past. This could involve actionssuch as: school accreditationreviews which are serious examinationsof all aspectsof school performance and repeatedat regular intervals; inclusionof private schools in the administrationof regular student achievementtests by state officials, with results sent to parents and communities,and; the annual publicationof performance reports on all accreditedprivate schools. Chapter IV examinesthe inequitableallocationof public educationresources across xix. schools. About 20% of total public spendingon secondaryeducationgoes to support the federal technical schools, which have only 3.4% of total public enrollments.About 2% of total public secondary educationspending goes to SENAI secondaryschools which have 0.4% of all secondary students. Students in these schools pay no tuitio.nand receive an educationcosting approximately US$ 1800per studentper year. The socioeconomicbackgroundof students in these costly schools (which admit students via competitiveexaminationsand interviews)is significantlyhigher than the average backgroundof students at state and municipalschools. xx. The report suggestsways in which the equity of public spending on high cost technical educationcould be improved, principallyby expandingenrollmentsmore rapidly than physicalplant, and linking schools with industry to lower equipmentcosts. It also recommends expandedprograms to attract low-incomestudents to federal technical and SENAI secondaryschools, such as those the Federal Ministry of Educationand SENAI are already adopting. Increasing lowincome students' share of enrollmentsin federal technical and SENAI schools is feasible, if entering students have access to remedial programs. Over the long-term, it may also be feasible to reduce graduallythese schools' costly emphasison equipment-intensivetraining, because a high share of graduatesare university-boundand the attractionof these schools for manystudents is the high overall quality of the teaching and the strong emphasison science and math. xxi. Chapter IV also analyzes efficiencyproblems associatedwith the way in which Brazilianvocationaltraining is financed. The SENAI and SENAC vocationaltraining systemswhose combinedbudgets in 1987were approximatelyequal to total state and municipallevel spending on formal secondaryeducation-- are financed almost exclusivelyby a payroll tax and training servicesare provided "free" to individualworkers and enterprises. Significantinefficienciescan arise under such a system, because: i) there are no incentivesfor trainees to make sure that they work at the skills for which they are trained, ii) there are no incentivesfor employersto choose the most efficient sources of training among alternativepublic and private suppliers, and iii) employershave an incentiveto overutilize certaintypes of skilled workers, particularly those with high-costskills. All of these problems are exacerbatedin the case of equipment-intensive,institute-bawedindustrialtraining such as SENAI provides, due to the high costs of industrialequipmentand the need for constant investmentto avoid obsolescence.Replacinga part of the payroll tax with a system of chargesfor - xiii - training in which costs are shared by employersand employeesdependingon the employee's tenure with the firm could substantiallyalleviatethese incentiveproblems. Chapter V evaluatesthe prospectsfor progress in Braziliansecondaryeducationover xxii. the next decade. Far from catchingup with other countries, Brazil's secondaryenrollmentsstagnated over the 1980sdecade. Secondaryschool enrollmentsfrom 1980-87grew by only 2% per year, about equal to the growth of the secondaryschool-agepopulation. At he current rate of enrollment growth, Brazil would not reach even 50% secondaryschool participationuntil the year 2010. The main constraint to faster secondaryenrollmentgrowth is the lack of throughputfrom the primary school system. Unless progress is made in reducing primary school repetitionand dropout rates, which are exceptionallyhigh in Brazil, secondaryschool enrollmentsare unlikely to increase more by than 2.5% per year over the coming decade. Even this relatively low rate of enrollmentgrowth could have importantpublic finance xxiii. implications,dependingupon which types of secondaryschoolinggrow fastest. If all new enrollmentsafter 1990 were in federal technical schouls, annual public expenditureson secondary educationwould increase by 20% per year in real terms, as compared with 3.5% per year real expendituregrowth if the current distributionof enrollmentsremainedmore or less constant. On the other hand, because of their higher internal efficiency,a scenario in which all incrementalenrollment growth was in federal technical schools would result in almost 20% more graduates by the year 2000. Unfortunately,this potentialbenefit is outweighedby the fact that total public expenditureon secondary educationwould have to double in real terms; in Brazil's current fiscal circumstances increasesof this magnitudemust be consideredunsustainable. The projectionspresented in Chapter V also indicatethe potential contributionof the xxiv. private sector. If enrollmentgrowth after 1990 were faster in private than in public schools -- as was the case in the 1970sand from 1986-88-- substantialfinancial savings for the public sector could result and a higher number of graduates could be expected. The implicationis that policies te stimulatethe expansionof private schools at the secondarylevel, by avoidingtuition controls, improvingoversight of private school quality and providingbetter informationabout private schools to parents and students, couldbe importantfor Brazil. xxv. Finally, Chapter V sets out four priority issues for Braziliansecondaryeducationover the decade of the 1990s: i) achievingcost-effectiveimprovementsin the quality of state schools; ii) strengtheningthe performance of private schools and stimulatingincreasedcompetitionwith the public school system, iii) improvingthe incentivesfor the efficientdelivery of vocationaltraining and improvingthe equity of high-costtechnicaleducation, and iv) developingefficiency-enhancingroles for federal, state and municipal educationauthorities. xxvi. Implicit in all of these options is more administrativeautonomyat the school level and a new role for educationofficials at all three levels of government. The new government role would place much stronger emphasison accreditation,oversight, school performance evaluation,technical assistanceand financial intermediation,and would place reduced emphasison direct school administration,with many functionsdevolvedto the schools. xxvii. The nationaldiscussionsduring 1988to define the new Constitutionincluded numerous debates over aspectsof the educationsystem. To a large extent, secondaryeducation - xiv - remainedthe forgotten child of Brazilianeducationin these discussions. Although major changes in the organizationand financingof SENAI and SENAC were extensivelydiscussedand finally rejected, the very central questionof whetheror not the whole system of secondary,technical and vocational educationin Brazil as currently structured and financed is appropriatefor Brazil's future, was strikingly absent. Meaningfuldebate on the sources of quality problems in state-levelsecondary educationand new directions for addressingthese were also lacking. The associationsof private schools proved themselvesan effectivelobby in catalyzingcertain Constitutionalprovisionswhich they believe will reduce the role of Govermnentin determiningprivate school tuition levels, but this too was achieved withoutany apparent nationalconsensuson the broader questionof the role of the private sector in secondary- or primary or tertiary - education. This report raises some major issues in Braziliansecondaryeducationand draws together data that can aid in the analysisof policy options. The present state of Braziliansecondaryeducationoffers much to stimulate further national thinking and debate. - xv - MATRIX OF RECOMMENDED POLICY MEASURES OBJECTIVES Improve the Qualityof State-levelSecondary Education. IMMEDIATEACTIONS - Introducestandardizedstudent testing as a tool for measuringschool (and school system)performance objectively. - Strengthenbasic curriculumby increasinghours of teachingof core subjects (Portuguese,Math, Science, History) LONGERTERM ACTIONS - Professionalizethe selectionof schooldirectors and increase their control over school personneland school financial resources. - Introduceincentives for school performance (graduallylink directors' and teachers' evaluationsand bonus pay to school progress in meeting specifiedperformance objectives). - Transform state technicalschools into science and math magnet schools, reducing need for expensiveequipment. - Develop a stronger technicalassistance role at the state level, to identify weak schoolsand work with these to improve performance. Strengthen the Performance of Private Schools. - Introduce regular private school accreditationreviews. Includeprivate schools in standardizedachievementtests and publish results. - - Publish annual performancereports on private schoolsand distribute to parents.' Improve Public Vocational Training Efficiency. - Include SENAI secondary schools in the administrationof regular student achievementtests. - Seek ways to lower equipment and shop costs, such as equipment-sharingprograms with local industry. - Seek ways to lower equipment and shop costs, such as equipment-sharingprograms with local industry. - Reduce payroll tax transfers to SENAI and SENAC to the level of their actual expenditures on training. Improve the Equity of Federal Technical Schools. - Continuecurrent program to rationalize network, closingunderutilizedshcools and adding shifts to demanded-schools. - Expand enrollmentsmore rapidly than physical plant to reduce unit costs. - Attract more low-incomestudentsvia special campaignsand offer remedial programs, when necessary, for these students. - OBJECTIVES 5. rsvelop EfficiencyEnhanciig Role for Government. xvi - IMMEDIATEACTIONS - Strengthenstate educationsecretariats' capacity for: (a) design, administration and analysis of achievementtests for public and private secondary studentsat least every two years; (b) curriculum evaluationand development,designand implementationof in-service teacher training programs, and other central support services for the benefit of all public and private schools;(c) private school oversightand accreditation;and (d) annual public school performance evaluationsand budget reviews. LONGER TERM ACTIONS xvii - RESUMO L. Este ano, no Brasil, cerca de 600.000 alunos concluirio o segundograu.1' Para um pafs que conta com quase 150milhoes de habitantes,uma forca de trabalhode mais de 50 milh6esde pessoas e acima de 9 milhoesde jovens entre 16 e 18 anosde idade, 600.000 formandosrepresentamuma parcela fnfimade indivfduoscom conhecimentos,aptidoese potencialsuficientespara ascenderao ensino superior e/ou iniciar suas atividadesprofissionaisna sociedade que mobiliza a nona maior economiado mundo industrial. ii. A media de escolaridade da populagaobrasileira fica consideravelmenteaquem da de muitas nagoeslatino-americanase da de outros pafsescom nfvelmediode renda. Em 1980, 60% da forga de trabalho brasileira nao contavamcom qualquertipo de escolaridadeou nao chegarama concluir o 11 grau, enquantoque na Coreia tal percentagemse resumia a 16%, e na Turquia, a 26%. Na America do Sul, apenas a Bolfviapossui uma parcela de mao-de-obranao-educadamaior que a do Brasil. A defasagemexistenteentre o Brasile outros pafses6 especialmenteacentuadano ensino iii. secundario. Em 1987,estimava-seque o total de alunos matriculadosno 20 grau no Brasil, representava apenas 37% da populacao com idade escolar correspondente,bem abaixo do percentual de 59% dos pafsesem desenvolvimentocom nfvelm6diode renda. Pafsescomoo Chile, com um fndicede matrtculas da ordem de 70% ou corno a Coreia, onde 95% dos adolescentesfreqilentamas escolas de 20 grau, encontram-senum estagio muito mais avangado. Este relatdrio visa analisar tanto a estrutura quantoalguns dos principais problemasdo ensino medio brasileiro. Contudo, nao se pretende discutir exaustivamenteo tema, e sim enfocar certas quest6esestrategicamenteimportantespara o pafs, tais como: Qual deveria ser o equilfbrioentre educaqgo de nfvel geral e formacao profissional/tecnicano 2° grau? Quais deveriam ser as responsabilidadese funqoes dos setores publico e privado na prestaqaode ensino medio no Brasil? 0 que poderia ser feito para melhorar o acesso igualitarioao ensino medio e seu conseqiuentepapel no processo de mobilidade social? E, acima de tudo, num momentoem que o Brasil nao pode permitir-sequalquer gasto adicional com servigos ptiblicos, o que pode ser feito para aprimorar a qualidade das escolas da rede oficial utilizando-seapenasos recursos atualmentedisponfveis? iv. v. Ao adotar esse tipo de abordagemestrategico,muitasoutras questoesde vital importAncia para o ensino m6dio sao tratadas apenas superficialmenteneste relatdrio. Dentre elas estao o conteddo dos currfculos, as distorcoes no financiamentoda educagao pdblica e nas transfer8nciasde recursos intergovernamentais,e, sobretudo, os problemas referentes a capacidade,formagao e remuneracaodos professores. Para se obter uma visAocompleta do estado atual do sistema educacionalbrasileiro, e de formular polfticasadequadascom vistas a aprimorar a qualidadee efici8nciado mesmo, seria necessario fazer uma analise pormenorizadado processo de 2ormagaodos professoresde 10 e 20 graus, bem como das caracterfsticasde seu mercado de trabalho. Entretanto,temas tao complexosexigem um estudo mais profundo, o que ultrapassa o ambito deste relat6rio. 1/ Neste relatorio, "segundograu" e "ensino secundario" (ou mesmo "ensino mrdio") sao utilizados como sin6nimos. - xviii - vi. Mesmo a partir de uma vislo superficial,torna-se 6bvio que os principais problemasdo sistema educacionalbrasileiro se concentramno lgrau, o que influenciade forma marcanteo que pode ser realizadono nfvel medio. De fato, este relat6rioconcluique o principalobstAculoa ser superado antes de que se possa elevar significantementea baixfssimataxa de matrfculano 20 grau no Brasil, e o reduzido ndmero de alunos que concluemo ciclo primario. Apesar de que quase 100% das criangas brasileiras inician o ensin6 basico, menos de 40% de cada turma inicial conclui o 10 grau, a maioria depois de muita repetigao, o que eleva os custos da formagio. vii. Este documentoconcentra-sena problematicado ensino medio e faz parte de uma serie de relat6rios elaboradospelo Banco Mundialsobre o sistema educacionalbrasileiro. Em 1988. o Banco preparou um relat6rio denominadoPublic Spending on Social Programs: Issues and Options (Gastos Piblicos com Programas Sociais: Ouestoes e Alternativas),no qual apresentou uma analise geral dos problemas relativos a alocagaode recursos nos diferentessetores sociaise nos distintos nfveisdo sistema educacional. As questoes referentes a eficiencia no uso de recursos dentro de cada um dos niveis educacionaisforam examinadasem relat6rios especfficos: Brasil: Os Aspectos Financeirosdo Ensino Primario 2', elaborado em 1986, e A Reforma do Ensino Superior no Brasil-', conclufdoem 1991. 0 objetivo dessesrelat6rios e analisar os principaisproblemasde cada ntvel de ensino, e identificarpolfticas que podoriam aprimorar a utilizacaode recursus pdblicos no sistema educacionaldo pafs. Esses quatro relat6rios partem da premissabasica de que o Brasilprecisa tratar prioritariamentedo ensino de 1 grau, por ser este o setor que propicia o maior retorno econ6micopara a sociedadecomo um todo, e por sua importanciafundamentalpara um processo democraticoestavel e coeso. viii. Um dos principais motivosque levaramo Bancoa elaborar este relat6rio foi o debateora em curso no Brasil sobre a naturezado ensino medio no pafs. Nao obstante o amplo consensosobre os objetivos basicos do ensino primario, existem diferentes linhas de pensamento quanto ao papel a ser desempenhadopelo ensino secundario, sobretudose este deve conferir prioridade a uma educagaogeral ao inves de uma formagao profissionalizante. Em comparasao com outros pafses, o Brasil destina relativamentepoucosrecursos para a educagaogeral de ntvel m6dio, e investesubstancialmentetanto em cursos profissionalizantesinformais (atraves da rede SENAI/SENAC/SENAR)W quanto na formasgao tecnica academica(atraves das escolas tecnicasfederais, as escolas t,'nicas do SENAI e programas de capacitaao tecnica das redes estaduais de ensino secundario). Essas alternativas educacionaisnao s6 proporcionam distintos graus de conhecimento e de aptidao aos jovens brasileiros, como tambem apresentamcustos diferenciados.Cursos profissionalizantese de formagaotecnicasao mais onerososem termos de hora/estudante. Entretanto, cursos profissionalizantesrequerem menos horas de instrugaoe proporcionamuma formagaomuito menos diversificada. ix. Este relat6rio analisa a eficienciados atuais gastos com o ensino secundario e com os programas de capacitagaoprofissional, buscando identificar possfveis formas de aperfeiqoamentodo sistema sem, contudo, desviar recursos do nfvelde ensino primario, onde ainda ha tanto para ser feito. a/Brazil: The Finance of Primary Education,World Bank (1986). I/ Higher EducationReform in Brazil, World Bank (1991). 4/ SENAI (Servico Nacional de AprendizagemIndustrial); SENAC (ServicoNacional de AprendizagemComercial); e SENAR (ServigoNacionalde Aprendizagemn Rural). - xix - Um grande obstdculoa ser superado 6 a falta de coeranciapolfticae de coordenacaoadministrativano setor. Atualmente,o principal problema do 2° grau no Brasil 6 a baixa qualidadedo ensino nas redes estaduais. Os Estados nao dispoem de politicas, recursos e vontade poiftica para tratar do assunto. Por outro lado, o GovcrnoFederal gasta muito com as escolastecnicasfederais -- uma rede de escolasde alto nfvel e custo elevado, accessfvelapenas a uma pequena eitLe.Todavia, devido ao ser elevado fndice de custo por estudante, as escolastecnicas federaisnao constituemum modeloviavel de ensino secundario para o Brasil como um todo. x. 0 Capftulo I examina o baixo fndice de escolaridade da populagao brasileira em comparacaocom os pedr6es internacionaisvigentes e descreve a evolugaotanto do sistema educacional formal quanto do profissionalizanteno contexto do desenvolvimentoecon8micobrasileiro dos uiltimos quarenta anos. Aparentemente,a falta de priorizagaodo ensino secundarionao acarretou, no passado, serias dificuldadespara o desenvolvimentoecon8micodo pafs, porem isso podera ocorrer futuramente. Em anos anteriores, os grandes investimentosdestinadosa cursos profissionalizantesde curta duragao parecem ter compensadoo fraco desempenhodo ensino secundario brasileiro; o SENAI (o servicio nacional de aprendizagem industrial), e o SENAC (instituto congenere, voltado para a aprendizagem comercial) formam, respectivamente,de 500.000 e 1 milhao de pessoaspor ano. xi. Contudo, a medida que a economiabrasileira se torna tecnologicamentecada vez mais sofisticada, mais diversificada e, sobretudo, mais aberta a concorrencia internacional, a natureza da demanda por mao-de-obramuda mais rapidamentee torna-semas diffcil de ser anticipada. Isso afeta a forga de trabalho e o sistemaeducacionaldo pafs de duas formas. Primeiramente,esta aumentandoo nivel minimo de educagaogeral requerido por um trabalhador, para que ele continue passivelde treinamento e adaptAvela diferentes ocupag6es, ao longo de sua vida professional. Cursos profissionalizantesde apenas 100 horas de duraQaonao conseguem, de maneira alguma, proporcionar o mesmo grau de conhecimentoque tres anos de ensinosecundario.A educagaogeral formanos individuosa base cognitiva que permite o desenvolvimentode competenciastecnicascomplexas;a educagaoprofissionalizante,pela sua natreza focalizada,nao tem esse efeito. A demandapor mao-de-obrano Brasil, assim como no resto do munco, esta-se tornando cada vez mas concentrada em conhecimentosgerais e em competancias t6cnicascomplexas.Nao obstante,no Brasilde hoje, o trabalhadorurbano medio nao cursoumais do que cinco anos de escola primaria. Sem pelo menos uma educagaoprimaria - e, para muitos eliipregos,uma educagao secundaria -- 6 pouco provavel que os trabalhadoresvenham a ter as condic6esde adaptaggo e os conhecimentosnecessariospara que sejam produtivos numa economiaem rapido desenvolvimento. xii. Em segundo lugar, a medida que os avangostecnol6gicosvao ocorrendo, torna-se cada vez mais diftcil formar adequadamentetrabalhadoresespecializadosem centros de treinamento, ao inves de no pr6prio ambientede trabalho. Para manter centros de treinamento atualizadostecnologicamente, se precisa utilizar grandes somas de recursos, o que diminue drasticamentea eficienciadeles. Avangos tecnol6gicastambem reduizem o tempo em que um trabalhadorpode esperar exercer uma determinada ocupaqao e, portanto, lucrar com o seu treinamento especializado. No Brasil, o sistema nacional de formagao profissional cumpriu seu papel durante a fase inicial e nao muito complexado processo de industrializaao do pafs. No entanto, talvez ele :lo esteja capacitado para atender as atuais e futuras necessidadesda economiabrasileira. 0 desenvolvimentoeconrmico do Brasil podera estar ameasado se os sistemas de ensino e de formagaoprofissionalnao forem adaptados a nova realidade econ6micado pafs. - xx - xiii. 0 Capftulo II descreve as cinco caracterfsticas essenciais do ensino secundario que fundamentama anaflisede possfveispolfticas a serem adotadas. Sao elas: i) o rapido crescimento das matrfculasno 20 grau nas decadas de 60 e 70 (media anualde 11% entre 1960e 1980)e a estagnacaodo mesmodesde 1980; ii) a diversidadedo 2° grau no Brasil em termosde currfculo, administracao,custos unitarios, e qualidade; iii) o importantepapel do setor privado no ensino secundario (35% do total de matrfculas)e a naturezaheterogeneados colegiosparticulares(as mensalidadesvariam, aproximadamente, de US$3 a US$500); iv) o deseguilfbriodos gastos pdblicosno que se refere ao ensino secundario,com um baixo investimentopor estudante nas escolas estaduaise municipaise subsfdioselevadospara uma minoria relativamentepr6spera de estudantesem escolastecnicas federais e em escolas secundariasdo SENAI; e v) a aus8nciade uma estrat6eia poifticadefinida para o ensino secundarioe a ineficientee excessiva centralizacaoadministrativada rede oficial de escolas. xiv. 0 Capftulo III trata da qualidade do ensino secundario. 0 principal problema a ser superado 6 o baixo nfvel das escolas estaduais, frequentadaspor 90% dos estudantesda rede pdiblica. Devido ao elevado fndice de repetencias, essas escolas gastam, em media, seis anos de estudos para formar um aluno num programade tres anos. 0 fndicede desist8ncia6 tal que de 100alunos inicialmente matriculados,apenas 42 concluemo curso. As escolasestaduaiscontam com recursos substancialmente mnenoresdo que outras instituig6es brasileiras de ensino secundario: os gastos por aluno atingem, aproximadamente, US$250 por ano, em comparacao com os mais de US$1.700 anuais nas escolas t6cnicas federais e os cerca de US$1.800 nas escolassecundlrias do SENAI. Entretanto, este relat6rio demonstra que os gastos por aluno nas escolas estaduais brasileiras nao divergem da media anual encontrada em outros parses (Us$234 no Chile, US$243 na ColOmbia).Contudo, apesar do ensino secundarioser menos seletivo nesses paises, o nrdmerode formandos6 consideravelmentemaior -- fato que aventa a hip6tesede que, aparentemente,outros sisternaseducacionaispdblicossejammais efici8ntes que a rede oficial brasileira. xv. 0 baixo qualidadedo ensino estadual foi tambem demonstradoresultados obtidos por 2.600 alunos num teste padronizado realizado em tres estados em 1988. A grande discrepancia no desempenhodos alunos -- especialmenteno que se refere a prova de mathemltica -- nao pode ser totalmenteatribufdaa fatores de nfvels6cio-econ6mico.Os piores resultadospertenciama estudantesdas escolas estaduais, especialmentede cursos noturnos do magisterio. Alunos das escolas secundariasdo SENAI tambem nAoforam bem-sucedidos. Em comparacao, os estudantes provenientes de colegios particulares, quer de cursos noturnos ou diurnos, alcancaramsistematicamentemelhores resultados. Ja os alunos das escolas tecnicasfederais alcancaramum desempenhobem superior ao dos demais grupos, o que reflete o alto nfvelpedag6gicodessas instituig6ese o seleto grupo ao qual se destinam (para serem aceitos, os alunos devem ser aprovados num exame classificat6rio). xvi. Quais sao as causas da baixa produtividadedas escolas estaduais, e o que pode ser feito para corriger essa situacao? Este relat6rio conclui que as principais questoes ao nfvel estadual sao: excessiva centralizacao, deficiancias administrativas, e falta de um sistema que incentive maior produtividadeno sistema escolar. Varias polfticas alternativaspara abordar essas problemas surtiram efeito em outros pafses, tais como; a introducao de um sistema de incentivos que leve em conta o desempenhodas escolas, a implantaco de um processogradual de descentralizagaocom vistas a lograr a autonomiaadministrativadas mesmas; a utilizacaoperi6dica de testes de avaliacao a fim de medir o progresso do sistema educacional;e a formulagaode polfticas que visem aprimorar a rede particular e estimulara concorr8nciacom o sistema pdblico. - xxi - mostra que a heterogeneidadedo ensino secundariobrasileiro e o xvii. Esse capftulotamnb6m interesse cada vez maior na municipalizacaodo ensino pdblico em varias partes do pats sao fatores capazes de levar a melhoriado sistema. 0 Brasil apresenta um amplo campo de experimentacaopara diferentes modelos organizacionais e reformas educacionais e oferecem oportunidades para que administradorese pesquisadoresde todo o pafs avalieme divulguemmedidasbem-sucedidas.Conclui-se, portanto, que o processo de municipalizagcodos dois nfveis de ensino - 1Pe 20 graus - ora considerado por um nimero crescente de Estados, pode ser um meio eficaz para aprimorar a efici8ncia e confiabilidadedo sistema educacionalbrasileiro. Contudo, para atingir esses objetivos, 6 imprescindfvel que autoridades estaduais e federais adotem medidas complementaresa fim de equilibrar as receitas municipaise prestar assistanciatecnica aos municipios. Polfticas que visem fortalecer o desempenhodas escolas particulares sao igualmente xviii. importantespara melhorar a qualidadedo ensino medio. A rede privada, especialmentede 20 grau, 6 responsAvelpor uma grande parcela de matrtculas e, ccnforme demonstram os resultados dos testes padronizados,muitasdessas escolastem uma relacaocusto/beneffciobem acima da media da maioriadas escolas piblicas do pa(s. 0 Governo deve desenvolvera sua capacidadede monitorar a qualidadede ensino da rede privada ao inv6sde controlar, de forma contraprodutiva,o prego das mensalidades.Tais polfticasincluiriam:a revisaoperi6dicadas Iicencasde funcionamento,medianteavaliacaoestritade todos os aspectos vinculados ao desempenhoda escola; a participacAosistematica dos alunos em tes,.es de avaiiacaodo rendimentoaplicados por funcionariosda rede oficial de ensino (e o envio dos resultados aos pais e as escolas); e, a publicacao peri6dica de relat6rios sobre o desempenho dos colegios particulares credenciados. 0 CapftuloIV examinaa desigualdadeexistentena alocagcode recursospara as diferentes xix. escolas. Cerca de 20% do total de recursos do sistema educacionalde 2°grau sao destinadosas federais que contamcom apenas3 % dos alunos matriculadosna rede oficialde ensino. Outros 2 % dessesrecursos vao para as escolassecunddriosdo SENAI, que possui apenas0,4% dos alunos de nfvelsecundario.Estes estudantes nao pagam. mensalidades e o custo anual por estudante eleva-se a US$1.800. 0 nfvel socio-econ6micodos alunos que freqiientamessas onerosasescolas6 consideravelmentemaisalto do que o dos alunos das escolas estaduaise municipais. xx. Neste relatdrio sao apresentadaspropostas para contrabalancar os altos custos dessa formagaotecnica, a saber, a elevagaodo ndmerode alunos em ritmo mais aceleradodo que a ampliagao das instalag6es ffsicas e a vinculagao das escolas a empresas, a fim de reduzir os custos com equipamentos. Tambemsao recomendadaspolfticasque favoregamo maior acessode estudantesde baixa renda Is escolastecnicas federais e escolassecyindgriasdo SENAI, tais como as ja sendo implementadas pelo Ministerio da Educacao e pelo pr6prio SENAI. Mediante a introduco de medidas corretivas, 6 poss(vel adotar polfticas que visem facilitar o acesso de estudantesde baixa renda a essas escolas. A longo prazo, talvez seja possfvel reduzir a importa.nciaconferida por essas escolas ao treinamento industrialcom base no manejo de equipamentos,que torna muito elevadoo custo da formaqao,visto que seu o maior atrativo 6 a alta qualidadedo ensino e a enfase no estudo de materias como ciancias e mathematica,e que a maioria dos formandosirA,posteriormente,para a universidade. 0 CapftuloIV analisa aindaas distorc6esno financiamentodos cursosprofissionalizantes. xxi. Os orgamentosdo SENAI e SENAC em 1987equivaliamaproximadamenteao total de recursos alocados para os setores estadual e municipal de ensino secundario. SENAI e SENAC sao financiados quase exclusivamentepor impostosobre a folha de pagamentodas empresas, que nao obriga os usuarios do - xxii - treinamento a arcarem com os custos. Grandes ineficienciaspodem surgir num sistema, tais comos porque: i) os usuariosnao veem tanto incentivoem fazer bom uso das competenciastecnico-profissionais adquiridas;ii) os empregadoresnao sao incentivadosa procurar a opgco mais eficientepara o treinamento de seus empregados(por exemplo, usando escolas procurar a particularesem vez de centros do SENAI ou SENAC);e iii)os empregadoresveem incentivosa sobre-utilizartrabalhadoresque req4uerem formacao de custo elevado que requerem formagaode custo elevado. Todos esses problemas sio agravadosnum sistema institucionalde formac&oindustrialcom 8nfaseno manejode equipamentos,tal comoo fornecido pelo SENAI, devido ao elevado custo dos equipamentosindustriais e a constante necessidade de investimentona atualizacaodos mesmos. A substituigaode parte do impostosobre a folia de pagamento por urn sistema de pagamentopelos servicos de formacao, no qual os custos seriam compartilhadospor empregadore trabalhadorproporcionalmenteao cargo ocupadopor este iltimo junto a empresa, poderia reduzir substancialmenteesses problemas. xxii. 0 CapftuloV avaliaos possfveisprogressosdo ensinonesta ddcada.Em vezde se igualar ao de outros pafses, as taxas de matrfculasno 2°grau brasileiro mantevem-seinalterado durante toda a decada de 80. Entre 1980-87,as matriculasaumentaramapenas 2% ao ano, percentual igual a taxa de crescimento da populagaocom idade para cursar o 2°grau. Caso o n(vel das matrfculaspermaneca o mesmo, o Brasils6 ser5 capaz de atingir 50% de participagaono 2° grau no ano 2010. 0 maior obstaculo a um rapido crescimentodas inscrig6esno nfvel m6dio6 o reduzido ndmero de estudantes que conclui o ciclo primario. A menos que se verifique algum progresso com relagao aos taxas fndices extraordinariamenteelevadosde repet8nciae evasao no 1 grau, 6 improvavelque durante a prdxima decada o crescimo das matrfculasno 2°grau seja maior que 2,5% anuais. xxiii. Mesmoesse crescimentode 2,5% ao ano pode acarretar importantesimplicag6espara as financaspdiblicasdo pafs. Se, apds 1990,todas as novas matrfculasse concentraremnas escolas tecnicas federais, as despesas pdblicas com ensino secundariaao aumentarao cerca de 20% ao ano em termos reais, comparados com 3,5% - caso a distribuicao atual das matriculas permaneca mais ou menos constante. Por outro lado, devido ao maior grau de efici8ncia interna das escolas federais, se tal concentragaoviesse a ocorrer, haveria um crescimentode 20% no nimero de formandosate ao ano 2000. Infelizmente,as vantagens desse beneffcio sao superadas pelo fato de que, em termos reais, o total dos gastos pdblicos com o ensino secundario dobraria: a atual situagco fiscal do Brasil nao pode suportar aumentos dessa magnitude. xxiv. As projecoescontidasno CapftuloV tambemassinalamas possfveiscontribuicoesdo setor privado. Um crescimentomaisr5pidodas matrfculasnas escolasparticularesem comparacaoaos escolas publicas-- como ocorreu na d6cadade 70 e entre 1986-88- acarretaria substancialeconomiade recursos para a rede oficial_ resultarianum maior ndrmerode formandos.Polfticasque estimulema expanslo das escolasprivadas de 2°grau, evitandoo controlede pregosdas mensalidades,melhorandoa supervisaodo desempenhodos colegiose fornecendoinformacoesmaisprecisas a estudantese pais de alunos poderiam ser importantespara o Brasil. xxv. Para concluir, o CapftuloV levanta quatroquestoesprioritariaspara o ensino secund5rio na ddcadade 90: i) aprimorar a qualidadee efici8nciadas escolas pdlblicas;ii) fortalecero desempenho das escolas particulares e estimular maior concorrencia com a rede oficial de ensino; iii) aprimorar a eficiancia da formagao profissional e contrabalancar os elevados custos do ensino tecnico; e iv) desenvolver atividades que estimulem a eficiencia administrativadas autoridades federais, estaduais e municipaisdo ensino. - xxiii - xxvi. Implicita em todas essas opc6es de politica estg um maior autonomia das unidades escolares, e tambem um novo papel para os governos, focalizado nos processos de credenciamento, supervisao e avaliacaode desempenhodas escolas, bem como assistenciatecnica e mediacaofinanceira. Esse novo papel colocaria menos enfase nos questoes administrativascotidianasdas escolas, os quais seriam passadas as unidadesesolares. xxvii. Em 1988, o amplo debate nacionalenvolvendoa elaboraglo da nova Constituicaoincluiu varias discuss6essobre aspectosdo sistema educacional.Atd certo ponto, o 2°grau foi o "primo pobre" da educacAobrazileira nessas discussoes. Nao obstante intensos debates sobre profundas mudancas organiiacionais e financeirasno Ambitodo SENAI e do SENAC, mudancasessas que posteriormente forar. rejeitadas, a questao central sobre a adequagaofutura da formagco tecnica, profissional e do ensino secundariopropadeuticopermaneceuquase intocada.Tambemnao foram debatidosos problemac da qualidadedo 2°grau estadual, nem os meios para soluciona-los.A associacaode escolasparticulares provou ser um lobby efetivo ao lograr incluir certas disposigoesque, segundo seus membros, limitarao o papel do Govemo no controledos pregosdas mensalidadesda rede privada. Esse objetivofoi alkangado sem que existisse,contudo, um consensonacionalsobre a 4uestaomais ampla do papel do setor privado no ensino secundario-- ou primario, ou terciario. Este relai6riolevantaalgunasdas principaisproblemas do ensino secundarioe consolidadados que podemajudar a analisede polfticasalternativas.A crise atual do ensino do 2°grau no Brazil demanda a atencaoda sociedadebrasileira. - xxiv - ESQUEMA DAS DIRETRIZES POLiTICAS RECOMENDADAS OBJETIVOS MEDIDAS IMEDIATAS I _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 1. Aprimorar a Qualidade do Ensino Medio Estadual. - Efetuar testes padronizados de avaliacao para os estudantes como formnade avaliar objetivamente o desempenho (e o sistema pedag6gico) das escolas. - Aprimorar os currfculos basicos, aumentando a quantidade de horas de mstru,ao de matdrias essenciais (Portugues, Matematica, Ci8ncias, Hist6ria). MEDIDAS DE LONGO PRAZO - Profissionalizar o processo de sele,ao dos diretores das escolas, bem como suas funcoes de controle de pessoal e de recursaosfinanceiroa. - Introduzir um sistema de incentivos que love em consideraqAo o desempenho das escolas (vincular, gradualmente, as avaliacoes dos diretores e professores a um sistema de bonificagiao 3 medida que a escola atingir seus objetivos). - Transformar as escolas tecnicas estaduais em centros de excelencia que enfatizem ciencias e matemitica, reduzindo, assim, a necessidade de equipamentos caros. | _________________________________ >aprimoramento 2. Fortalecer o Desempenho das Escolas Particulares. - Desenvolver atividades de assistencia tecnica a nivel estadual a fim de identificar as escolas deficientes e auxilia-las no de seu desempenho. - Revisar periodicamente o credenciamento das escolas particulares. | - Incluir os alunos das escols particulares nos testes padronizados de avalia,ao. - Publicar um relat6rio anual sobre o desempenho das escolas particulares. 3. Aprimorar a Qttalidade da Fofnacio Profissional de RedePdblica. - Incluir os alunos das escolas secundarias do SENAI nos testes padronizados de avaliaqao. - Reduzir a parcola da taxa de contribuicio providenciaria correspondente ao SENAI e ao SENAC a um nivel que acorde coom seus gastos atuais de prestacio de servicos de formaqio. - Buscar meios para reduzir os custos com equipamentos e manuten,ao, criando programas de utilizaqio compartilhada de equipamentos com inddstrias locais. - xxv OBJETIIVOS - MEDIDASIMEDIATAS ______________________ 4. Racionalizara Rede e Aumentar a Equidadedo Acesso nas Escolas TdcnicasPederais. - Continuara implementacaodo atual programa de racionalizagioda redo, fechar escolas corncapacidadeociosa e acrescentarturnos nas escolas mais frequentadas. - Elevar as matriculasem ritmo mais aceleradodo que a ampliaqiodas instalac,es fisicas, a fim de reduzir os custos por aluno. - Atrair um maior ndmero de es.udantesde baixa renda e, sempre que necessario,oferecer-lhescurso de apoio. 5. DesenvolverAtividadesque EstimulemMaior Efici6ncia Administrativa. - Fortalecer a capacidadedas SecretariasEstaduaisde Educac,o parmque elas possam: (a) elaborar, administrare analisar, no minimoa cada dois anos, testes padronizadosde avaliac,o dos alunosdas redes privadae oficial de ensino; (b) avaliar e elaborarcurriculos, formulare implementarprogramasde foamaqio de professoresem seus locais de trabalho e outros servicosde apoio; (c) supervisionare credenciar escolas particulares;e (d) tomar as escolas unidadesorcamentariase vincular dotac,es de recursos a resultados (rendimentoescolar e outros). MEDIDAS DE LONGO PRA ZO - Buscarmeios para reduzir os custos com equipamentose manutencio, criandoprogramas de utilizacaocompartilhadade equipamentoscom inddstriaslocais. I. CHANGING EDUCATIONAL NEEDS OF THE BRAZILAN ECONOMY A. BrazilianEducationalAttainment Brazil has one of the least-educatedpopulationsof any middle-incomedeveloping 1. country. Among these countries, Brazil is a notabl, 'outlier" both in its educationalstructure and the educationalattainmentof its population. In 1980, fully 60% of the Brazilianlabor force had either no educationor had not completedprimary school, whereas in Korea the correspondingpercentagewas 16% and in Turkey 26%. Within South America, only Bolivia has a higher share of the labor force with no educationthan Brazil. (Psacharopoulosand Arriagada, 1986). 2. Brazil lags seriously in its investmentsin secondaryeducation,as can be seen from Table 1.1. In 1987, total Braziliansecondaryschool enrollmentsrepresentedonly 37% of the populationaged 16-18while the average participationrate for countries of Brazil's level of per capita GDP in 1986 was 59% (World Bank, 1989). Countriessuch as Korea achievefar higher levels of secondaryschool enrollment: 95% in 1986, and other Latin American countries are also far ahead of Brazil; in Chile, 70% of the secondaryschool-agepopulationis enrolled, and in Uruguay 71%. Table 1.1: SECONDARYSCHOOL ENROLLMENT RATES: BRAZIL AND SELECTED COUNTRIES, 1965-198W ._______________________ 195 1986 Brazil 16% 37% (1987) Korea 35% 95% Chile 34% 10% Mexico 17% 55% Average, Upper Middle-Income Countriesk' 29% 59% a/ Gross enrollmentrates, UNESCOdefinition:total secondaryenrollmentsas a percentageof the relevantsecondaryschoolagedpopulation. In Brazil, most secondaryschoolingis for three years, so the 16-18year old populationwas used. bl World Bankdefinitionof upper middle-incomecountries:per capita GDP between US$ 1,810 and $7,410in 1986. Source: World DevelopmentReport. Brazildata fiom Ministryof Education. 3. Despite these strikinglylow levels of "human capital" formation as conventionally measured,1 ' the Brazilian economyclearly achievedimpressivegrowth in the decades 1950-1980. 1/ Most measuresof human capital formation are based on years of formal schooling completed. A limitationof this measure is that usually it does not capture investmentsin vocational training, which are more importantin Brazil than in manyother countries. Also, measuresbased on "years of schooling" do not take into account the effects of schoolingquality. Researchby Behrman and Birdsall (1983, 1985)suggeststhat as much as two-thirdsof conventionallyestimatedreturns to (years of) schoolingmay actuallybe returns to quality. -2 Recent studies suggest that this growth was associatedwith an industrializationstrategy that emphasizedheavy investmentsin physicalcapital and, relative to other countries, low investmentsin education. Thus, althoughlabor productivitygrew rapidly from 1960-1980,it appears not to have reflectedimprovementsin the "quality" of the labor force so much as investmentsin modem capital plant. One indicatorof this is that the share of naJionalincomegoing to labor over the period remainedlow relative to other countries, and the re-turnsto capital - protected by favorable tax policies -- were high. (Maddison, 1989). Throughoutthe 1970s, the period of the Braziliangrowth "miracle," the average real earnings of industrialemployeesrose more slowly than the growth of per capita GDP, and real wages for workers at the bottom of the wage scale barely rose at all in real terms.v 4. A substantialbody of internationalempirical studies and theoretical work suggests that Brazil's past developmentstrategy may not be viable in the future and that low educationlevels could emerge as an importantconstraintto Brazil's future growth. Followingthe work of Denison (1962, 1967), who found that about 40% of the growth of per capita income in the U.S. economyfrom 1948-73could be attributedto increases in the educationlevels of the labor force or advancesin knowledge,similar growth accountingstudies for a range of countries have found important contributionsto aggregateoutput growth from education. In particular, it appears that educationmay have a substantial "payoff" at stages in the developmentprocess when other developmentoptions have been exploited, for example, when economieshave achieveda relatively high degree of industrial development(i.e., have movedbeyond the phase where capital constraintsare most binding.) (Foster, 1989) 5. Indeed, since 1980 the growth of manufacturingoutput per worker and average wages in manufacturingin Brazil have been strikinglyslower than in countries such as Korea and Colombia. This raises at least the possibilitythat Brazil's relativelylimited supply of workers equippedwith solid literacy, math and basic science skills is contributingto a slowing of industrialproductivitygrowth and, consequently,stagnationin industrialwages. From 1980to 1985, gross output per worker fell by almost 25% in Brazil, while increasing in Korea by almost 40% and in Colombiaby close to 20%. Over the same period, real earningsper employeein manufacturingincreasedby about 20% in Korea, 22% in Colombia, and 11% in Chile, while decliningin Brazil by 7% (AppendixTables 1 and 2).' 6. Educationcan be an importantfactor in economicgrowth even in largely agricultural economies. A study of Malaysia's impressive4% per year per capita income growth performance from 1961-76,for example, concludedthat heavy investmentsin schoolingover the period explained up to 60% of growth. (Smith, 1983). Studies conductedby the World Bank in eighteencountries 2/ Accordingto Maddison,p. 103, from 1970-80,the average earningsof industrial employeesrose in real terms by 57%, real GDP per capita rose by 78%, and the real minimumwage rose by 5.2%. 3/1 Of course part of these differencescan be attributedto the difficultyBrazil has had in the 1980sin adjustingto the second oil shock and reduced access to foreign borrowing. But some of these adjustmentdifficultiesmay themselvesbe relatedto the capital-intensiveroute Brazil chose in the 1960sand 1970sand that route may itself have seemed necessaryas a short-cutto "development" in the face of the relativelysmall size of the educatedlabor force. - 3have also demonstratedthat educationand training had direct impacts on farmers' crop production; in areas where technologywas changing(and this is an importantdelimiter) farmers with four years of educationhad productivityon average almost 10% higher than uneducatedfarmers (Jamison and Lau, 1982). Finally, over the past 30 years, closeto 100 different studies -- including in Brazil -- of the economicpayoff both to individualsand society from investmentsin educationhave demonstrated consistentlyhigh social as well as private returns (generallyover 15% and often over 20%), both in absolute terms and comparedto other investments(Annex Table III). These results hold even after downward adjustmentsare made in line with recent critiques that these estimatesfail to considerthe impact of individualability, schoolingquality, and other factors not measured. B. EducationInvestmentsand Postwar EconomicGrowth 7. There are several reasons why Brazil's low average levels of formal schoolingmay not have emerged as more of a constraint to growth in the past. First, Brazil has pursued a frankly dualisticdevelopmentstrategy, with investmentand output growth heavily concentratedin the Southeast. Average educationlevels in this regionhave long been higher than the nationalaverage -althoughstill low in comparisonwith other countries. In 1987 for example,the secondaryschool participationrate in the Southeastwas 46%, as comparedto the nationalaverage of 37% (Appendix Table 7). Thus, the skilled manpowersupply in the region of greatest demand has been greater than is suggestedby aggregatestatistics. Second, Brazil has given priority to the expansionof university and post-graduatelevel educationbefore mass primary and secondary-leveleducationwas achieved.4' A relatively high level of universitygraduates, comparedto other developingcountries, may have helped support Brazil's capital-intensivedevelopmentstrategy. Another way of viewingthe Brazilian pattern is that emphasiswas given to vertical integrationof the educationsystem rather than horizontalexpansion, which would have emphasizedaccess to basic educationfor a larger share of citizens. 8. Third, Brazil has investedheavily in occupationaltraining as an alternativeto formal education. Since the 1940s, a sizeablepart of Brazil's total public spendingon educationhas been channeledto a network of training institutesfor skilled industrial (SENAI) and commercial(SENAC) workers; since 1975, there have also been generous tax incentivesfor enterpriseswhich carry out inplant training programs. As compared with the formal secondaryschool system which graduates 500,000 students per year, SENAI trains over 500,000 and SENAC over 1 million individualsper year and government-subsidizedtraining programs in industry reach an estimatedadditional 1-2 million individualsper year. There is a very great difference in course length, and coverage, however; a secondaryschool graduate has completed2,700 hours of classes over three years, whereas the average SENAI course is 150 hours and the average SENAC course is only 60 hours. Moreover, whereas secondary school students have by definitioncompletedeight years of primary school in Brazil, about half of SENAI and SENAC students have not done so. Nonetheless,De Moura Castro (1979) concluded that at least until the early 1970s, SENAI's relatively short courses for youths with no more than four years of primary schoolingwere effective in preparing trainees for blue-collar industrial and basic commercialoccupations. 4/ See De Moura Castro (1986), pp. 104-105. -4 9. The combinedeffect of these factors (plus significantimmigrationof educatedworkers from Japan and Europe) helped Brazil to avoid serious skills bottlenecksduring a rapid process of basic industrialization. Nevertheless,skilled workers were relativelyscarce throughoutthe 1960sand 1970s,as indicatedby high private rates of return to both secondaryeducationand vocational training. Estimatesof educationrates of return for the period since 1980do not exist, but labor market data suggest that scarcities in high skill categoriespersist and may be increasing, given the changing structure of the Brazilianeconomy. C. SecondaryEducationand Training in an EvolvingEconomy 10. The increasingcomplexityof industrial productionprocesses worldwide is resulting in demand for broader segmentsof the labor force equippedwith strong literacy, numeracy and basic science knowledgethan in the past. Brazil is not immune to these trends. Already today, in the cutting-edgeindustrial firms in Brazil, a lathe operator no longer operates a lathe; he operates a computer controllingthe lathe. As the Brazilianeconomybecomes more technologically sophisticated,more diverse and, most importantly,more open to internationalcompetition, manpower needs are changingmore rapidly and are increasinglydifficultto foresee. This has two major consequencesfor the labor force and for the educationsystem. First, it suggeststhat the minimum levels of general educationthat a worker requires in order to remain flexible and trainablethroughout his working life are increasing. Yet in Brazil today, the average urban worker has not completed more than four years of primary school. Without at least a full primary educationand -- in most countries - a secondaryeducation,workers are unlikely to have the knowledgeand adaptability required for productivityin a rapidly evolving econom;. 11. Second, as the pace of technologicalchange increases it becomes harder and harder to give workers specializedskills training efficiently in an institutesetting, rather than on the job. The costs of keeping training facilitiesup-to-date escalateenormously,and can rapidly drive down the efficiencyof skills training. Technologicalchange also reduces the time that a worker can expect to practice a particular craft and earn a return on specializedtraining. Institute-basedtraining, which served Brazil well during the early, relatively unsophisticatedphases of its industrializationprocess may be far less appropriatefor the Brazilianeconomyof the 1990sand twentiethcentury. Failure to adjust educationand training systems to new economicrealities could substantiallyimpede Brazil's future economicevolution. 12. SENAI is currently grappling with these problems. As the agencies are well aware, the quickeningpace of technologicalchange is changingthe entire cost-benefitstructure upon which institute-basedtraining in Brazil was predicated - and raising the possibilitythat for manufacturing skills which require hands-on experiencewith sophisticatedequipment,there may be no cost-effective way to provide training outside of an industrialsetting, where expensiveequipmentcan earn a return from production as well as training. 13. Table 1.2 shows the changingstructure of employmentin Brazil over the past several decades. The shift from an agrarian to an industry and services-dominatedeconomyis clear. After 1980, there are also indicationsof a decline in industrialemploymentin favor of service sector employment. The rapid growth of knowledge-basedindustriesand white collar and other service occupations in Brazil, as in other countries, poses challengesfor educationand training systems. Productivity growth in the tertiary sector may depend on workers' general educationlevels to a much -5 larger extent than did productivitygrowth in basic manufacturing. Irrespective of this, economists such as T.W. Schultz have observed that the greatest productivitybenefits from educationin all sectors of the economyarise from increases in the capacityof individualsto respond to economic incentivesand in their capacityto innovate, both of which are arguablyassociated with increasesin the average attainmentlevels and quality of general education,rather than with specialized occupationaltraining. Table 1.2: CHANGING STRUCTURE OF EMPLOYMEPIT AND GROWTH IN EMPLOYMENT BY SECTOR, 1950-1)85 AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY SERVICES 13.7 13.1 18.2 17.9 24.9 22.1 26.4 33.2 38.4 37.8 45.8 49.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 2.3 6.0 7.4 2.0 5.2 4.0 5.9 6.0 2.84 2.70 3.90 4.50 TOTAL Shares of Employment(%) 1950 1960 1968 1970 1980 1985 59.9 53.7 43.4 44.3 29.3 28.6 Growth in employment(% per annum) 1%t060 1960-70 1970-80 1980-85 1.7 0.7 -0.3 4.0 Sources: 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980Censuses; BGE, AnnuarioEatistico 19d7/88,pp.104-117. 14. These trends pose serious challengesfor the Braziliansecondaryeducationsystem, which today is characterizednot only by low participationrates, but also by decliningacademic quality and substantial inefficiency. Meeting this challengewill require developmentof a strong national consensusin favor of reform of general secindary education, and changes in public policy regarding private educationand vocationaltraining. To date, Brazilian secondaryeducationhas been marked by frequent changes in policies and, at times, the incoherentpursuit of conflictingobjectives. For example, the major reform of secondary educationin 1971resulted in a nationaldecree that all secondaryschooling (publicor private) should be consideredterminal in the sense that all graduating students should have a vocational skill equippingthem to join the formal labor force.2 ' At the same time, however, the federal governmentwas devotingmassive resources to expandingthe network of federal universities and private universities and facultieswere growing even faster. Despite government efforts, the "vocationalization'policy was very unevenlyapplied. Particularly in the 2/ It should be noted that the idea that secondaryeducationshould be heavily vocationalparticularly in developingcountries -- was very much in vogue at the time among educators worldwide, and was actively promoted in Brazil by external aid agenciessuch as USAID and the World Bank. -6 private sector, few secondaryschools made significantchanges in their curriculumbeyond the addition of accounting,teacher training and other low cost "white collar" vocationalcourses. This was for good reason; many students did not wish to terminate their schoolingat the secondarylevel when the opportunitiesfor university educationwere growing. In meeting the challengeof reform in secondaryeducation,Brazil has some important 15. advantages. The lack of coherent nationalpolicy and the fragmentationof institutionalresponsibilities has produced a potentially valuablefeature of the Brazilianeducationsystem -- diversity. As shown in this report, secondaryschools in Brazil are characterizedby extreme differences in unit costs, efficiency, quality, and equity of access -- ranging from the elite federal technical schools to much lower quality, state-level secondaryschools. In formal secondary education,there are federal, state, municipal, and SENAI schools and a large private sector. Many state, municipaland private schools offer technical and vocationalspecialtiesas well as the general secondarycurriculum. In the training sector, in addition to the publicly-fundedSENAI and SENAC, there is a diverse world of private training schools and institutes. This diversityprovides rich opportunitiesfor testing and adapting alternatives. These opportunitiesare not at present being exploited. Alternativeapproaches(to 16. secondaryschoolingand to training) are almost never directly compared by policymakersin terms of costs and effectiveness. As a result, administrativeinertia rather than coherent national policies tends to guide resource allocation. Although the federal Ministryof Educationhas notional overall responsibilityfor secondaryeducation, it does not control vocationaltraining, and it lacks the capacity for evaluationand research that might give it credibilityas a coordinatingagency of nationalpolicy. 17. The importantrole of the private sector in overall supply -- over 40% of schools and about 33% of formal secondaryenrollmentsare private, and an unknownbut significantnumber of vocationaltraining schools are private -- is a major contributorto this diversity. Far from only serving the elites, a large number of private secondaryschools have tuition levels below the average cost of state schools, and enrollmenttrends indicatethat many students who have access to public secondaryschools actually choose insteadto pay for private schools -- even though the lower costs of those schools would suggest a lower quality educationthan they could receivefor free in a public school. In Sao Paulo state, for example, tuition in late 1987 at 600 private schools monitoredby the state educationcouncil ranged from US$ 3/month to over US$ 500/month. Almost one-quarterof the schools had tuition below US$ 25 per month, the approximatecost per student of a state school. In the Northeast state of Ceara, the range in early 1988 for 146 schools was only slightly narrower -from US$ 5-75 per month and in Parana in late 1988, at 94 private sch.jols, tuition ranged from US$ 2 to US$ 73 per month. 18. Governmentregulationof the private sector in secondaryeducationhas been uneven and sometimescontradictory; for over fifteen years (from 1970-1988),the federal government subsidizedfamilies with private school enrollees, thereby stimulatingdemand, but also often held down private school tuition rates below costs, curtailingthe growth of supply. In 1984 alone, the fiscal cost of tax deductionsclaimed for private school tuition (and other cests such as transport) for all levels of educationwas estimatedby the Ministry of Finance as over US$ 200 million; perhaps $50 millionof this was for secondary education,roughly equal to 10% of total public spendingon secondaryeducationthat year. Although the eliminationof the tuition tax deductionbeginning in 1989 was a step in the right direction for equity reasons, there are numerous other ways, examinedin -7 subsequent chapters, in which governmentregulationof the dynamic private sector in secondary educationstill fails to advance public objectives. D. Educationand Training Investments:Setting Priorities 19. Considerableresearch has been done on the returns to education in Brazil (see Box 1). Unfortunately, the results to date do not enable us to address conclusivelysuch key questionsas: which is a better investment,technicalor general education?or, which is a better investment, vocationaltraining or formal education? The problem is that most availablestudies rely on census data that provides very limited informationabout the type of school and or training institute individualsattended. Individualsare classified in census data only by the number of years of formal schoolingthey ultimatelyachievedand the last type of school they attended. Thus, it is impossibleto tell if individualsin a census samplebenefitted from SENATand SENAC programs, for example. As a result, no study has been able to compare returns to formal schoolingdirectly with returns to vocationaltraining. 20. Nor is it possible to tell whether students who graduated from technical programs at the secondarylevel and subsequentlywent on to attend universityreceived any incrementalbenefit from their technical training. This is an importantquestiongiven the large numberof Brazilian secondary students that are enrolled in technicalor vocational "tracks," but subsequentlygo on to university. Would they ultimatelydo any better or worse in the labor market if their secondaryeducationhad been strictly general college preparation? Given the diversity of schools and types of training availablein Brazil, and the differences in cost betweengeneral and technical education,these are importantlimitationsof existing rate-of-returnstudies for policy purposes. 21. Studies of the private returns to educationin Brazil during the 1960sdo indicate that graduates from both general and technical secondaryschools could expect high future earnings, i.e. high private returns to their education. Using 1970 censusdata, Psacharopoulosestimatedthe private rate of return to general secondaryeducationto be 25%. (For comparison,his estimate of the private returns to higher educationin 1970 was 14%.) His analysisdid not allow differentiationof the returns to general versus technical secondaryeducation. 22. Psacharopoulos' updated estimatesbased on 1980census data indicatedthat the private rate of return to !,.-;'ndary educationdeclinedover the decade of the 1970s, to 16.4% for students in general secondaryprograms and 19.8% for students in technicalsecondaryprograms. The higher, 19.8%, return does not refer to SENAI and SENACvocationaltraining. It refers only to students whose last schoolingwas a full secondaryschool program with a technical or vocationalorientation (which are offered by the federal technical schools, state and private secondaryschools, and SENAI's very small network of secondaryschools). 23. What do the higher private returns to technicalsecondaryeducationtell us? Several alternativeconclusionsare possible. First, due to conditionsin the labor market in the 1970s, demand for secondarygraduates - or dropouts- who had followeda technical or vocationaltrack may really have been higher than the demandfor studentswho took only the general secondary curriculum. A second alternativeis that demand for students (or dropouts)from technical tracks might have been higher in part becausethe quality of technicalschools was higher and thus, those students represented all-aroundbetter educatedindividuals. As is documentedin this report, the -8- EDUCATIONAL TNAL) BoA1: MEASURMIG IC C Is public expenditureon educationprovidingthe night numbers of individualswith the types of educationand skillswhich Brazil requires?Thisis a basic questionthat countres ask of their educationsystems, a concept referrd to as exteral efficiency. Althoughthere are many unmeasable benfits to individualsand society from education,the most commonlyused indicatorof how effciinty a given countiy's educationsystemprepares studeotsfor productve roles in the economy is the rate of return to education, calculatedon the basis of graduates' earnings. Educationrat-of-return studis ideally estimateboth private and social rates-of-return. The private rate of return is the discountrate that would equalizethe benefits an individualreceives (measuredin terms of his or her increase in earnigs as a result of each additionalyear of education)and the direct and indirect e0t of the additionalschooling. Direct casts are out-of-pocketexpenses(tuition,books, fees, transport, etc.). These, however, are generally much less importantthan the indirect cost of forgoneincome, or an estimateof what the individualwould have eamed were he or she not still in school. In practice most private rates of return are measuredusing a shorthandfunctionalrelationshippioneeredby Mincer (1974), in which direct costs of education are ignored. This yieldsa rough, but useful, estimateof the private rate-of-returnto incrementalyears of schooling. The social rate-of-returnis a broader measure, which comparesthe benefits and costs to society as a whole if individualsattain more years of education. In practice, in additionto the individuals'increasedincome, social benefits include only such easy4o-measureitems as incometaxes paid. Research has indicated,however,that there are other importantsocial benefits from education(such as improvedcitizenshipor contributionsto the productivityof other workers or, for women,lower fertilityand healthierbabies)that generally cannot be measured. Thus, social rates-of-returnare probablyunderestmated. The social rate of return also adjusts for the full costs to society of whatever schoolingan individualreceives. Becausepubliclyprovided educationis tuitionfree in almost every country, social rates of return to educationare almost alwayslower than private returns. Rate-of-returnstudies essentiallyassume that incrementalearnings associatedwith additionalschoolingoccur because educationincreasesthe human capital of the individual. This 'human capital" approach has been criticized- increases in earningsassociatedwith schoolingmight occur because employers use educationas a screeningdevice to pinpoint more able or disciplinedindividuals(and not their increasedhuman capital) or becausemore educatedindividualsare also these from familieswith influenceto obtainthe beat jobs. However, studieswhich control for students' ability (Boissiere,Knight, andSabot) or which measurethe impact of schoolingon individualswho are self-employed,in order to rule out employerscreening(Jarnisonand Lau), suggest stronglythat schoolingitself makespeople more productive. estimateshave now been carriedout in a large number of countries and, for some Education ratewof-retum countries, at several different points in time. Despitethe crudeness of the measure, three results appear consistentlyin these studies. First, rates of retwunfor education,typically in the range of 10%-30%, are generally high re}ativeto other types of investmentin a given oountry. Second, the returns to primary of education,which are as high as 20% in many counties, are almost always higher than returns to secondary,vocationaland higher education. Third, the gap betweenprivate and social rates-of-returnis greatest at higher levels of education,with private returns usually greatly exceding socialreturns. This suggeststhat ociety should concentrate"public" resourceson prnmaryand possibly, seondary education, andthat higher educationshould predominantlybe finanoedby the individualstudentswho benefit from it. Finally, as mightbe expocted, educationrates of return tend to decline slightlyover time as countriesexpandtheir educaonal systems. However, as noted by (June1987),returns to education, partiularly in deeloping countries, continueto be above 10%, Psachatopoulos whichimpliesthatinvetmentsin educationalexpansionare still attractiverelative to mostaltemative investnents. -9average quality of federal technicalschools (which spend six times more per student than general state schools) is unquestionablyhigher than that of other schools. However, it is impossibleto know for certain the extent to which these results reflectedreturns to schooling at high-costfederal technicalor SENAI schools, as opposed to much lower-coststate technicalschools or private schools with a technical or vocationaltrack. A third possibility is that technicalprograms attract, on average, higher aptitude 24. individualsand that this accountsto some extent for their better success in the labor market. There is certainly some evidencethat this is true for students at federal technical schools, which (controlling for a range of other individualand school variables)perform consistentlybetter on standardized achievementtests. This is not surprising, given that the federal technical schools select students on the basis of highly competitiveentrance exams, which makes it likely that these schools have smarter students to begin with. Finally, it is possible that students in technicalsecondaryprograms during the 1970s 25. were more likely than students in general programs to terminate their educationat the secondarylevel rather than go on to university. As a result, the census sampleof students from general programs might be an adversely selectedone, i.e., only those who did not do very well in secondaryschool. This could also make the "return" to general secondaryschoolingappear lower. The real difficultyis that even if it were clear that the higher returns to 26. 'technical/vocational"training reflected labor market factors and not individualaptitudesor school quality, the policy implicationswould be unclear. As this report documents, Brazil has an extremely diverse array of technical/vocationalsecondaryprograms, with large differencesin per student costs and administration. Which types of program would be the ones to expand? It is impossible,from available rate-of-return studies, to say. Regardingthe returns to (non-formaleducation)vocationaltraining, De Moura Castro's 27. research on SENAI graduates in the early 1970syielded similarlyhigh estimatesof rates of return to SENAI training: 24% (for youths who took SENATtraining after four years of primary school), 12% (for youths with eight years of formal schooling),and 23% (for SENAI plus secondaryschool). Unfortunately, De Moura Castro's research has not been updated, or extended to SENAC. SENAI, and especiallySENAC enrollmentshave expandedeven more rapidly than formal educationsince the early 1970s, and it appears that one factor in the rapid increase in numbers has been a proliferationof shorter-term, lower-costprograms. With slower economicgrowth in the 1980sand a large increase in trainees, private returns to both general secondaryschool and vocationaltraining may have fallen somewhat. But for many types of skills they still appear to be high enough to attract fee-paying students to the significantnumberof private schools and training institutesthat exist in Brazil. Despite the difficulty in drawing precise policy conclusionsfrom rate-of-return studies, 28. they do indicatesome importantoverall trends. Existing studies suggest that unless demand for skilled labor has fallen significantlyin the 1980s,more investments(which can be privatelyas well as publicly financed) in educationand training make sense from society's point of view. Indeed, for a country with Brazil's low average educationalattainmentthere seems to be little risk of overinvesting in education. But on two critical issues - the relative benefits of investmentsin general educationvs. vocationaltraining, and the relative benefits of investmentsin school quality vs. quantity (or expanded access) - they tell us relatively little. - 10- 29. The expansionof vocationaltrainirigrelative to general educationthat has occurred over the last two decades, and the likelihoodthat the increasing sophisticationof the Brazilianeconomy will over time increase the demand for graduateswith a full secondaryschool education,raise the possibilitythat Brazil may now need to increase its emphasison general secondaryschool education relative to shorter-term specific skills training for industry and commerce. This follows not so much from quantitativeestimatesof past and current rates of return as from qualitativeobservationsabout the likely evolution of Brazil's economy. IL SECONDARY AND VOCATIONAL EDUCATION IN BRAZIL: CRITICAL CHARACTERSTICS of the Braziliansecondaryeducationand vocationaltrainingcan Criticalcharacteristics 30. be summarizedin five points. Thesefive pointscapturemuchof the informationnecessaryfor analysisof policychoices. Moredetailon severalof thesepointsis includedin the Annexes. A. Secondaryschoolenrollmentsgrewrapidlyuntilthe recessionary1980s.but are still very low givenBrazil'sper capitaincome. Vocationaltrainingenrollments.whichare high by internationalstandards.followeda similarpatternof rapidgrowthin the 1970sand stagnationfrom 1980-8S. Secondaa School. Brazilis far behindsuchcountriesas Korea,Mexicoand Colombia 31. in its rate of secondaryschoolenrollment,withan enrollmentrate onlyslightlyabove35%, compared to 73% in the otherthree countries.- To someextent,the differenceis compensatedfor by an extensivesystemof vocationaltraining,but manytrainingstudentshave notcompletedthe full eight yearsof primaryschoolandmosttake shortOessthan one year)coursesthat are not equivalentto secondaryschool. Althoughsecondaryschoolparticipationin Brazilis low by internationalstandards, 32. enrollmentsgrewrapidlyfrom a very smallbase after 1950,andparticularlybetween1960and 1980 (ChartI). In 1960,less than 5% of the 16-18age groupwas enrolledin secondaryschool(about 275,000students).By 1980,enrollmenthad growntenfoldto 2.8 millionstudents,or 35%of 15-19 year-olds. The rate of enrollmentexpansionover thesetwo decades- about11%per year - was fasterthan for otherlevelsof the educationsystem.2' Underlyingthe nationalenrollmentrate is someregionalvariation,but less than might 33. be expected. In 1985,gross enrollmentsrangedfrom 25% in the Northto 42% in the Southeast (AppendixTable7). Enrollmentgrowthhas beenconsistentlyhigherin the less developedNorth, 6i/ Throughoutthis report,secondaryenrollmentsare discussedon a gross basisbecause most internationaleducationstatisticsuse this measure.The grossenrollmentrate is the totalnumber of studentsenrolledas a shareof the populationof secondaryschoolage, as definedby a country's educationsystem.In Brazil,the legalage rangefor secondaryschoolis 15-19,but mostprogramsare only for three years. Therefore,for the purposeof this report, secondaryenrollmentsare compared to the populationaged 16-18,andnot 15-19. Net enrollmentsrefer to the studentswho are in the legal age range. Thus, gross enrollmentscountoveragestudentsandnet enrollmentsdo not. The differencein Brazilis significant;as shownin AppendixTable5, in 1987the net secondaryenrollmentrate in Brazilwas 25%, as comparedto a grossenrollmentrate of 37%. 2/ In the 1970s,however,highereducation(andpost-graduate)enrollmentsexpandedat fasterrates than secondaryenrollments. - 12 - Center-Westand Northeastregions than in the Southeastand South since the 1960s; in both of the latter regions, enrollmentsactuallydeclinedslightly between 1980 and 1985. In contrastto expansionof 11% per year in the 1960sand 1970s, secondaryenrollments 34. nationallystagnated after 1980, increasingby just 1.4% per year between 1980and 1985. Unofficial estimatesindicate some rebound in enrollmentgrowth since 1985, averagingan estimated3.8% per year from 1985to 1987. But even this rate of expansionis little barely above the rate of population growth. As a result, over this decade the gross enrollmentrate has increasedonly marginally, from 35% in 1980 to an estimated37% in 1987. Chart l: SECONDARYSCHOOL ENROLLMENTS 1960 - 1980 Thousands of Students 3500 - 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 0 1960 1965 1970 X Private 1980 1975 L 1985 Public Source:SEEG/MEC and World Bank Estimates The stagnation in secondaryenrollmentsduring the 1980sappears mainly to reflect a 35. stagnationin the throughputof graduates from the primary school system. Rapid growth of secondaryschoolinguntil 1980 may be seen as a process of catchingup with the productionof graduatesby the primary school system, which had expandedearlier. In 1960, a relatively small share of primary school graduates went on to secondaryschool; by 1982, an estimated75-80% of - 13 - primary graduates continuedon to secondaryschool. Since 1980, the number of primary school graduates annually has remained about 850,000-880,000. The share of graduates who go on to secondaryschools (the "transitionratio") may be going up; available nationalenrollment data are inconsistentand inconclusiveon this (see Rosemberg, 1989). If the absolutenumber of primary graduates is not growing, the transition ratio may be expectedto increase, particularly if supply constraintsare not significantand private returns to secondaryschoolinghave not declined.' Evidencediscussedlater in this Chapter suggeststhat for most parts of the country supply is not constrainedand existingpublic and private schools could expand enrollmentsfaster than they are currently doing. 36. VocationalTraining. Although it is difficultto compare vocationaltraining enrollment rates across countriesdue to the heterogeneityof programs and differences .n the age span of eligible workers, Brazil has one of the most extensivepublicly-financedprograms in Latin America, and the region is generally consideredto lead the world in institute-basedtraining. The Braziliansystem consists of SENAI (ServicoNacional de AprendizagemIndustrial), which directly trains about 500,000 industrial workers per year; SENAC (ServigoNacionalde AprendizagemComercial), which directly trains about 1,000,000 workers in commerceand services each year; and SENAR (Servico Nacional de AprendizagemRural), which trains roughly 200,000 workers per year in a variety of trades applicable in rural areas. There is also an active for-profitprivate sector in vocationaltraining, althoughthere is no centralizedinformationabout it and no availableestimatesof enrollmentsin these schools nationally. SENAC researchers have unofficiallyestimatedthat enrollmentsin private commercialskills training schools could be on the order of 30-50% as high as SENAC's.2 ' 37. As can be seen in Chart II, enrollmentsin SENAI and SENAC were lower than formal secondaryenrollmentsuntil 1970. In the 1970s, however, their enrollmentsexploded, increasingby V/ One factor almost certainly related to students' decisionsregarding whether or not to pursue secondary schoolingis age. A basic prediction of human capital theory is that the older an individualis, the less he/she will invest in educationand training -- because the opportunitycosts of staying in school increase and because the time period over which a return (in the form of higher wages) on incrementaleducationmay be collected is reduced. The age range of students in Brazilian secondaryschools is extremely dispersed -- with over 30% of all students beyond the legal cutoff-age of 19 -- and there is a significantage difference betweenthose students graduating from primary school who do not go on to secondaryschool and those who do: according to the PNAD data, the average age of individualswho graduated from primary school in 1981 and were not enrolled in secondary school the followingyear was 19.2 yedrs old. Primary graduates who did continueon to secondary school were 16.9 years old, on average. Thus, it may be expectedthat improvementsin school quality and other actionsto reduce dropout and repetitionrates in Brazilianprimary schools will affect the probabilityof students continuingon with secondaryschooling, i.e., contributeto an increase in the transition ratio above 80% over time. 2/ Becauseof the high capital costs of establishingan industrialtraining school, private vocational schools predominantlyoffer commercialskills training (secretarial, accounting, computer programming and data processing, beautician, etc.). Thus, they may tend to compete more in SENAC's market than SENAI's. Private industrialvocationalschools also exist, however. - 14 - 21 % per year. One factor behind this enrollmentgrowth was the automaticexpansionof SENAI and SENAC budgets (based upon 1% payroll taxes levied on formal sector enterprises) during a period of rapid economicgrowth. A second importantfactor was the innovativenessof both agencies in developinga heterogeneousmix of training courses, especiallyshorter-term training, distance teaching using radio and television, and enterprise-basedprograms, all of which lowered the average costs of training and permitted increased enrollments. Chart Il: GROWTH OF VOCATIONALTRAINING 1940 - 1987 2000 Thousands of Students - 175015000 12601000 750500 250 0 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 =SENAI 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 ~SENAC Source: SENAI and SENAC Headquarters 38. Similar to the formal secondarysystem, SENAI and SENAC experienceda decline in enrollmentsfrom 1980-85. Since 1985, both agencieshave expandedat a more rapid rate (11% per year) than formal secondaryenrollments. BecauseSENAI and SENAC budgets are tied to payroll taxes,L' enrollmentfluctuationsmay be supply driven, relatedto cyclical variations in receipts, more than demand driven. The fact that b th agenciesgenerally retain 30% or more of their annual receipts for investmentsunrelated to training, does give them some flexibilityin protecting program size during economicdownturns. LQ/ SENAR's budget is not. SENAR receives its funds from the Ministry of Labor. - 15 - 39. Whether supply or demanddriven in the case of vocationaltraining, it can be concluded that the decline in formal secondaryenrollmentgrowth from 1980-85was not causedby a shift in demand towards vocationaltraining (assumingthat there was no expansionin private vocational training enrollmentsover this period.) The pattern appearsto be a broad decline in investmentsin human capital during the recessionaryearly 1980s.The faster growth of training enrollmentssince 1985, however, suggeststhe possibilityof a demand shift towards vocationaltraining. To evaluate this properly however would require more detailed data on studentcharacteristicsand annual budgets than SENAI and SENAC make public. Chart III: SECONDARYSCHOOL EDUCATIONAND TRAINING ENROLLMENTSBY TYPE OF SCHOOL,1985 FORMALSECONDARY SCHOOL SECONDARYSCHOOL PLUS VOCATIONALTRAINING state shtat unirloalpa State aMicplPrivate 63.4% e bla Federal Technical A Municipal Schools ~~~~~~~~~22.9% Fedhnial Schools 2.2% SENAl Secondar Schools 0.26% Private Schools 33.3% SENAI - all programs 8.8% Total Enrollments: 3,016,138 22.9 Total Enrollments: 4,373,144 Sources: MEC, SENAI, SENAC 40. Aggregate Spending. Low secondaryenrollmentsate associated with low public spending on this level of education. Brazil's public investmentin secondaryeducationis much below that of other Latin American countries. In 1980, the average country in Latin America allocated 25.6% of public educationspendingto secondaryeducation,while Brazil allocated only 8.4%. In Latin America, only El Salvadorspends a smaller proportionof public educationfunds on secondary educationthan does Brazil.)-` 11/ Rojas (1987). -16 - Table 2.1: PUBLIC SECONDARYEDUCATIONAND TRAINING EXPENDITUREAND ENROLLMENTSBY TYPE OF SCHOOL,1985 EXPENITURE COSTPERSTUDENT 198 (bMONh (UMileu ENROLLMENTS Cas C z$") USSW) _ _ _ _ _ VS$ _ SECONDARY EDUCATION FederalTechnical Agricultural Industrial 4.7 119 67,657 69,328 1,759 1.5 3.2 37 82 13,568 54,089 107,886 59,655 2,727 1.516 SENAI Secondary SchGools 0.6 14 7,543 73,864 1,880 State/Municipal Schools State Municipal 18.7 18.0 0.7 476 458 18 1,912,488 1,780.155 132,333 9,778 10,111 5.290 249 257 136 23.9 609 1,987,688 SENAI (excluding secondary schools) 3.0 76 378,723 7,863 200 SENAC 2.0 51 1,002,505 1,998 51 SUBTOTAL 5.0 127 1,381,228 GRAND TOTAL 28.9 736 3,368,916 SUBTOTAL VOCATIONAL TRAINING ____ a/ 1985 level of expenditure, converted to 1987 Cnzzados. h/ Convened at average exchange rate for 1987, US$1 .00 CzS39.28. Sources: EPEA, MEC, SENAC, SENA!, World Bank Reports and Appendix Table 20. 41. Low public sprkndingis compensatedin part by high enrollmentsin private schools at the secondarylevel (currently about one-thirdof secondaryenrollments)and substantialprivate spending on both tuition and other school-relatedexpenses, such as books, transportation, etc. The total of such private spending is estimatedto account for about 45% of all public and private spendingon secondary schoolingin 1985. Low public spendingis also compensatedto some extent by public spending on vocationaltraining. In 1985, SENAI and SENAC's estimated actual expenditureson training (US$ 141 million) were equal to about 23% of total public spending on formal secondary schooling,but this was an exceptionallylow year. In 1987 SENAI and SENAC revenues totalled US$ 555 million, higher than total (1985) state and municipallevel spending on formal secondary schooling.L' 12/ SENAC's total revenuesin 1987were US$ 191 million, but the agency spent only US$ 84 million on training. SENAI's total 1987revenues were US$ 364 million, but it did not report actual expenditures. See SENAC,Relatorio Geral 1987 and SENAI, RelatorioAnual do Sistema SENAI 1987. - 17 - 42. Total public spendingon secondaryeducationis unevenlydivided between technical educationand general education. About 22% of the total goes for technicaleducation, in either federal technical schoolsor SENAI secondaryschools. These schools, however, represent less than 2% of total secondaryenrollmentsand only 3.4% of public secondaryenrollments. Within SENAI, the 17 secondaryschools represent about 15% of total expenditure,but only 1% of total enrollments. The high costs of a full secondarytechnicaleducation, rangingfrom US$1,500 to US$ 2,700 per student in 1985, are clear from Table 2.1. 43. Despite the striking growth of public vis-a-vis private secondaryenrollmentssince 1980 (discussedlater in this chapte;), the governmentcommitmentto public secondaryeducationappears weak. Public spendingon secondaryeducationincreasedat the state level from an estimatedUS$ 192 per student in 1983to $257 per student in 1985, but public spendingover the period increasedmuch more for universityand postgraduateeducation. As a result, secondaryeducation's share of total educationspending was lower in 1985 (7.9%) than in 1980.131 Chart IV: PUBLIC SECONDARYENROLLMENTS AND UNIT COSTS, BY TYPE OF SCHOOL, 1985 3000 Annual Expenditure Share of Total Publo Enrollments (Total * 1,987.688) per Student (US$) 2500 100 8 2000 60 1500 -40 1000 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~20 500 0 Municipal State SENAI EExpenditure/Student Federal (Industrial) =]3Public Federal (Agricultural) 0 Enrollments Source: Table 2.1 13/ There is some evidencethat Ministry of Educationfunding of secondaryeducationas a proportion of total educationspendinghas increased slightlysince 1986 (Gomes, 1988). - 18 - B. Secondary-leveleducat-i in Brazil is diverse, in terms of course content. administration,and unit costs. Within the public sector, quality is generallyDoor: the exceptions are the highly select. high cost federal technicalschools and SENA! secondaryschools. 44. Secondaryeducationis provided by all three levels of government -- federal, state, and municipal. The private sector, with 35% of enrollmentsin 1987,also plays an importantrole. Chart IV shows enrollmentsand unit costs by type of school. 1. State Schools 45. Over 96% of public enrollmentsand almost two-thirdsof total secondaryenrollmentsare in state and municipalschools, hereafter in this report referred to as state schools. State schools are open to all students who have completedprimary school, operate 180 days per year and 5 hours per day (900 hours of instructionper year;. The general secondaryprogram is three years, or 2700 hours of instruction. A small share of students (less than 10%) take technicalor occupational programs that require a fourth year of classes. Another20-30% take courses, such as teacher trainingandaccounting,which commonly include a year of apprenticeship. 46. State schoolsoffer a wide array of different occupationally-orientedprograms. All courses, however, lead to a full general secondarydegree adequatefor college entrance. Students may specialize in primary sector (agricultural),secondary(industrial)and tertiary sector (service) curriculaand may do so to differing degrees: habilitacaobasica, habilitacaoparcial, or habilitacao plena, in ascendingorder of intensity.!5' Nationally,about 37% of students take no specialization, and 12% take habilitagaobasic, or the most general type of vocationalorientation. Over half of all students, however, take habilitacaoparcial or plena. Within the latter categories,the most popular specialtiesby far are teacher training and accounting,which enroll 20% and 15% of all secondary students, respectively(Baqueroand Oliveira, 1987). 47. In most cases occupationally-orientedand general curriculumprograms are offered in the same schools and state budgets do not allow disaggregationof their unit costs. Much state-level "training" -- for specialtiessuch as teaching, accounting,clerical assistant, etc. - involvesno machineryor other special supplies. However, a fe.wstates maintaina distinct network of specialized technical (industrialand agricultural)schools, althoughin general these account for less than 10% of total state enrollments. These schools are designedalong the lines of the federal technical schools, but conditions at state technical schools are often deplorable. Budget constraintsdo not permit adequate investmentsin training equipmentand maintenance;machineryis often non-functioningand the equipmentthat does work is largely obsolete. Teachingpersonnelare less well paid than teachers in federal technical or SENAI/SENACschools, and consequentlyare of lower technical quality. 14/ Municipalschools account for 7% of public enrollmentsand 4% of total enrollments. The problems of municipalschools closelyparallel those of state schools, so this section does not treat them separately. I5/ Basica programs includelittle actualskills training. Parcial trains students to the level of assistanttechnician. Plena includes full occupationaltraining, for exampleas a dental technician, accountant,or (primary or secondaryschool) teacher. - 19 - Many state technical schools in fact are unable to offer an educationvery different from that of a general state school. 48. Two-thirdsof all secondaryschool students in state and municipalschools attend school at night, as compared with 56% of all secondarystudents and 55% of private secondarystudents. Most night classes are held in schoolsused for primary school during the day. Most night school teachers are teachingtheir second or even third shift that day. Althoughonly 36% of secondary students work, over 70% of those who attend night classes are employed. Night school attendanceis not confinedto students from the lowest-incomefamiliesin Brazil. Accordingto 1982 PNAD data, students from all but the top income quartilewere more likely to study at night than in day programs. (see Appendix Table 11). Night sessions help state (and private) schools lower the marginal costs of expansion,but it appears that the high share of enrollmentsat night basicallyreflects studentdemand. 49. Secondaryschoolsoperated by the states and municipalitiesare mainly financedby state general revenue sources. Federal secondaryeducationtransfers to the states represent less than 3% of total state secondaryeducationexpenditures(as compared with 16% at the primary level). In 1986, states spent close to 20% of their total budgets on educationbut only 9% of their educationspending on secondary schools. 50. The administrationof state secondaryschools is highly centralized. All teacher recruitment and assignmentdecisionsare made by the state secretariats. There is no expenditure authority at the level of schoolsor even regional delegacias; supplies are all procured centrally and deliveredto the schools. Curriculum design and textbook selectionare also handled centrally. Except for recent efforts in a few states such as Parana to involve parent organizationsand communitiesin school maintenance,maintenanceis also handled centrally and most states have large backlogsof requests for repairs. 51. Unit costs in state and municipalpublic schools vary across and within regions,WL but are in general low - averagingan estimatedUS$ 250 per student (for state schools)in 1986. This figure is low even taking into account the sharing of many costs (such as building constructionand maintenance)with primary schools.'7 Federal transfers favor the Northeast, but have played only a mildly redistributiverole at the secondarylevel. 52. Althoughvariations do exist across states and within state systems, the dominantpattern of state secondaryeducationnationwideis low quality schooling. Weak and disorganizedschool administrations,sluggish and overblown bureaucracies,low paid and unmotivatedteachers and, in 16/ There have been no systematicstudies of regional variations in per student expenditures at the secondary level, but a 1986study of primary educationsponsoredby the Ministry of Education found a tenfold range in direct costs per student betweenthe lowest-spendingstate (Piaui, with US$ 33 per student) and the highest-spendingstate (Rio de Janeiro, with US$ 306 per student). The average direct expenditureper primary student was US$ .4. A similar degree of regional variation around the average expenditureper student (US$ 250) at the secondarylevel is very likely. 17/ In the state of Sao Paulo, for example, of 1,498 schools that offer secondaryschool classes, all but 162 share facilities with primary schools. - 20 recent years, crippling teacher strikes are commonfeatures of the state-levelschools. In 1988, the state (primary and secondary)schoolsof Rio de Janeiro, for example, lost 90 days of the 180 day school year to strikes. Sao Paulo state schools were closedby a teachers' strike for three months in 1989. Strike disruptions, as well as low school quality, contributeimportantlyto high dropout rates (29% in the first year and 22% in the second) and repetition rates (22% in the first year) in state schools -- and to the dismal statisticthat only an estimated42% of students who begin state secondary schoolsever graduates. 53. Twenty years ago state-levelsecondaryschools were of generally high quality and played an importantrole in the upward social mobilityof a significantnumber of Brazilians. Bright children of middle-incomeand poor familieswho managedto completeprimary school could be confidentof an educationcomparableto that of good quality private schools. In addition, states such as Sao Paulo maintainedlarger "magnet" schools, with entranceby competitiveexamination,which guaranteedgraduates strong chances of admissionto top universities. 54. The deterioration in state school quality can be traced to a number of specific causes examinedin the followingchapters. An underlyingissue is the trade-off between quantity and quality. Enrollmentsin state secondaryschools since the 1960shave expandedfaster than state-level expenditureson secondaryeducation. States respondedto the pressure from growing numbers of primary school graduates by rapidly adding new public school classes, commonlyusing existing primary school buildingsto hold secondaryschool sessions at night. The growth of classes demanded rapid recruitmentof new teachers, and the average quality of the public secondaryschool teaching stock began to decline.A Over time, growingpressures on state budgets resulted in declining average wages for teachers and contributedto the inabilityof teacher training schoolsto attract good studentsAl' 2. Federal TechnicalSchools 55. The 23 federal industrialand 37 federal agricultural schoolstogether account for only 3.4% of public secondarystudents (and 2% of all secondarystudents)but absorb 20% of total public spending on secondaryeducation. The schools are administeredby the Ministry of Education(MEC). They have high quality facilities and unit costs (US$ 1,500-2,700per year) close to those of Brazil's top universities. Students are selectedby competitiveentranceexams. The industrial schools receive on average more than 7 applicantsper place; the agriculturalschools are considerablyless competitive, averagingless than 2 candidatesper place. 18/ The average formal qualificationsof teachers at all levels have increased significantly over the past two decades, however. Part of the reason why secondaryschool teaching quality has declined appears to be that the rapid expansionof higher level educationafter 1970drew many of the best teachers away from secondary schools. 12/ Costa Ribeiro (1988) found that educationdepartmentshad the highest rates of unfilled student "places" (40% unfilled) at leading Brazilianuniversitiesin 1988, because insufficient candidatesattainedthe minimumtest scores required for acceptance. - 21 - 56. Particularly at the industrialtechnical schools, the student body is skewed towards upper income groups - with approximately17% of day students coming from families with income above 13 SM and 50% with income of more than 6 SM.A' Only an estimated9% of federal technical students come from families with income below 2 SM. Those technical schoolsthat operate night shifts, however, appear to reach students from significantlylower-incomefamilies. 57. The federal technical schoolsoperate six hour per day, 180-dayper year, four year programs. Thus, total course hours for graduation (4,750) are significantlyhigher than for state secondary schools (2,700). Many federal technical schools operate only one (daytime)shift. The agricultural schools, which tend to be located in the interior of the state, usually board students; this is the main explanationfor their higher per studentcosts. Federal technical schools boast higher rates of graduation (74%) than the average for either private or state schools, and their repetition rates are low.2" Althoughall of the federal technical schools have shop facilities or agriculturalproducton facilities designedto ensure that students learn practical skills, a large share of graduates in fact go on to university and enter white collar, professionaloccupations.Only 25% of federal technical school students are female. 58. The federal technical school system was created in the 1960s, with the objective of establishingone school of each type in every state. This objectivehas been achievedand a few states have more than two federal technical schools. The schools have enjoyedsubstantial and relatively stable financial support from the federal budget. ',eachers are paid on the same scale as professors at federal universities, and their salaries are high relative to salaries at state secondaryschools and private schools. They are similar to salary levels for SENAI secondaryschool teachers. In late 1988, the entry level salary for a federal technicalschool teacher was Cz 210,000 per month (seven imes the minimumwage, about US$ 280 per month at the prevailingexchange rate), for a forty hour work weel-, and the average salary was about ten times the minimumwage, or $400 per month. By comparison, the average salary for a state school teacher was in the range of two-three times the minimumsalary'(US$80-120per month); however, this is for a twenty hour week. During the recent constitutionaldiscussions,a proposal to transfer the federal technical 59. chools to the respectivestates was debated, but finally rejected. Despite their attachmentto the entral government, the federal technical schoolshave a surprising degree of operationalautonomy. School directors play a significantrole in teacher recruitmentand control school assignments BIthoughthey cannot lay off teachers). Althoughin principle the federal Ministry is responsiblefor ie design of curriculum, selectionof materials and school maintenance,in practice most technical 20/ Based upc-i data from the sample of federal technical students which participatedin the 1988 secondaryschool achievementtest. See AppendixTable 34. 21/ Interestingly,despite low repetitionrates, the percentageof students who are "overage" at federal technical schools -- 74% -- is little different from the percentage at state secondary schools (78%). One explanationgiven is that sometimercstudentswho have already completedsecondary school elsewhere but have not passed the Xestibular for the universitiesthey wish to attend, enroll in federal technical schools with the intentionof eventuallyreapplyingfor university admission. - 22 school directors out of necessityfind ways to take care of these directly, given their great distance from Brasilia. Student selectionis largely handled at the school level. 3. Federally-financedVocationalTraining 60. Each year, approximately1.6 million individualscompleteSENAI and SENAC training programs, as compared with the roughly 550,000 students graduated from Braziliansecondary schools. Although many SENAI and SENAC trainees are adults, the majority falls within the age range of secondaryschool. These autonomouspublic training organizationsthus represent an importantalternativepath to formal educationfor Brazilianyouths. 61. SENAI and SENAC are administeredby the National Federationsof Industry and Commerce, respectively, which are private assoc.itions of employers. The agencies' budgets, however, come from a one percent payroll tax on industrial enterprises (in the case of SENAI) and commercialenterprises (in the case of SENAC). Enterpriseshaving more than 500 employeesare levied a payroll tax rate of 1.2%. Industrial enterprisescan be exemptedfrom the extra 0.2% if a special training agreement is signed with SENAI, and about forty industrialenterprises have been exemptedfrom the entire 1.2% payroll tax becausethey have special accords which require them to operate their own training institutions. 62. The Ministry of Social Security collectsthe payroll tax and distributesit to the national headquarters of SENAI and SENAC, which in turn distribute funds to their regional offices, which provide the training. In principle, the Ministry of Labor oversees the training policies of SENAI and SENAC; in practice, the two organizationsare very autonomous. Although most SENAI and SENAC courses are relatively short-term (the average 63. SENAI course is 185 hours and the average SENAC course is 60 hours), SENAI operates a network of 17 full secondary schools, which offer a four year technicallyoriented program. About 1% of SENAI's enrollmentsnationallyare in this "HabilitagaoProfissional" (HP) program. Total course hours for the HP program are even greater than at the federal technical schools, about 5,600 hours over four years; during the fourth year students work in enterprisesas apprentices. Another 8% of SENAI enrollmentsare in specializedcourses for post-secondarystudents, called "Cursos do QualificacaoProfissional" (CQP). 64. SENAI and SENAC have pioneered the developmentof training programs closely tailored to the manpowerneeds of individualmdustries. Their responsivenessto industrial and commercialmarkets has traditionallybeen a major factor in their effectivenessin supplyingwelltrained and easily employablegraduates. It is also reflected in the heterogeneousarray of training courses they offer, in terms of content, length, and unit costs. As documentedin AppendixTables 15 and 22, in 1985 at SENAI's Sao Paulo branch, costs per studentranged from US$ 29 for the 80-100 hour "TreinamentoIndustrial"courses to almost US$ 7,000 over four years for the 4,300 hour HP program. The great majorityof SENAI's enrollmentsare in short courses aimed at skills upgrading- almost 50% of total enrollmentsare for short-term training in enterprises- and 37% of enrollments are in the equally short-term "TreinamentoOccupacional"program (TO), with costs per student of less than US$ 100. - 23 - 65. Given the lower capital costs of commercialtraining, SENAC courses tend to be more uniform in terms of average course length and costs. No informationabout costs by program is available from SENAC, however. 66. SENAI and SENAC are quite decentralizedto the regional branches, which control prograrrming, curriculum,teacher recruitmentand firing, administerall funds, conduct research and evaluation,and oversee the quality of all schools. Individualschools have limited autonomy. In general, the regional branches are efficientat handlingthese functions,and school quality is consistentlygood. The cost-effectivenessof SENAI and SENAC training has never been evaluated, however. 67. In addition to SENAI and SENAC, the federal governmentprovides tax incentivesto private enterprises which provide their own training. Law 6297, passed in 1975, allowed enterprises to deduct up to 8% of their incometax liability for training purposes. Participatingfirms submit plans to the of the Ministry of Labor for arproval. They can then either provide the training themselvesor contract with SENAI or SENAC to providethe training. Currently, some 4,200 enterprisesparticipatein the program, training an estimated 1 - 2 millionworkers per year. As smaller firms generallydon't have large enough work forces to benefit from this incentive, most of the beneficiarieshave been larger firms. There are no available evaluationsof the full costs or effectivenessof the enterprise-basedtraining, however. 4. Costs and Ouality 68. There exist large differences in average per studentexpenditureacross different types of public schools. Direct comparisonsmust be made with care, since course hours vary and some capital costs and administrativeoverheadmay be accountedfor differently,but the orders of magnitude shown in Table 2.2 leave little doubt that the typical educationa student receives at federal technical schools and SENAI technical schools is qualitativelydifferent from that of a state or municipal secondaryschool. Average annual per studentcosts of the technicaleducationoffered by the federal governmentand SENATare seven to ten times higher than average per student costs of general secondaryeducationprovidedby states and municipalities. The principalfactors explainingthese cost differences are the more expensivefacilities and equipmentof the federal and SENAI technical schools, higher teacher salaries, approximately15% more instructionalhours per year, and lower student-teacherratios. 69. How do these spendingdifferences affect the quality of educationoffered? Other than Ministry of Educationdata on dropout, repetitionand graduationrates at different schools, and data on how graduates of different schoolsdo on universityentrance examinations,no systematic comparisonsof school quality at the secondaryschool level exist. To provide somc partial answers, in November 1988 the Ministry of Educationand the World Bank commissionedthe Carlos Chagas Foundationto design and administera standardizedtest of secondaryschool achievementin two core subjects, Portuguese and Mathematics. The test was administeredto 2,600 third-year secondary students at 66 schools in four states (Ceara, Bahia, Sao Paulo and Parana). The test and results are discussedin Annex I. Table 2.2 shows how average student scores at the different types of schools correlate with per student expendituredifferences. - 24 - Table 2.2: ANNUALEXPENDITURE PER STUDENT AT DIFFERENT SCHOOLS, 1985 AND MEAN STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT TEST SCORES, NOVEMBER I8 EXPENDITURE PER ST1IDENT FEDERALTECHNICALSCHOOLS Industrial State SecondarySchools Day Night TeacherTraining (day) SENAI SecondarySchools Private Schoolse' Day Night Teacher Training (night) AVERAGE TEST SCORESa l (% correct) PORTUGUESE MATHEMATICS 51 $1,516 $257 $1,880 51 41 45 28 23 23 48 28 58 57 49 46 49 25 $525 || A/ Portuguesetest consistedof 35 questions;math test consistedof 45 questions. b/ Annual average tuition for 1988, estimatedfrom November1988 monthlytuition reported by schoolsand studentsparticipatingin the achievementtest; range was about US$ 75-770 per by households year. For comparison,the average annual secondaryschool tuition reporWted ii he 1982 PNAD was US$ 403; the average of annual tuition reported by private schoolsto the Sao Paulo state educationcommission(September1987) was US$792per year; a 1985 research study in Sao Pauloestimatedprivate schoolunit costs as US$670-698per student (Braga and Cyrillo); the averagetuition level reported by private schoolsto the state educationcouncil in Ceara was US$ 396 per year in March 1988, and in Parana (November 1988), US$ 312 per year. In all cases, the range in private schooltuition rates underlying these averagesis extremelybroad. Sources: Public school cost data from Table 2.1. Private school costs and student achievementdata from MEC/WorldBank/CarlosChagas FoundationStudent Achievementtests, 1988. See AppendixTables 23-39. 70. Except for the SENAI secondaryschools, whose students scored lower than would be expected,the schools ranked in terms of studentperformance in the same order as their per student expenditure. As discussed in Annex I, these rankings did not change when student scores were controlledfor students' socioeconomicbackground(parents' education, father's occupation,and family income), although there were clear differencesin students' average socioeconomicstatus at 'e different types of schools. Students at SENAI secondaryschools had the highest average socioeconomicstatus, followedclosely by students at the federal technical schools. General secondaryschools students had lower average socioeconomiclevels, and students at teacher training schools had by far the lowest of all. The rankings were consistentin all four states ard there was little absolute difference in mean test scores across regions for the same type of school. This may - 25 mean that the differences in per student expenditurethat exist across states and regional differencesin average private school tuition levels reflect differencesin regional price levels more than anything else. 71. Overall, the achievementtest results make clear that what kind of secondaryschool a Brazilian studentattends has a great effect on his or her cognitiveachievement. There appears to be two reasons why. First, there are significantdifferencesin the average socioeconomiclevel of students at different types of schools; the data indicateclearly that students from different social classes are "tracked" into different types of secondaryschools in Brazil. And, as is found in every country, students of higher socioeconomicstatus tend to score higher on standardizedtests. Interestingly,the Brazil data also impliesthat lower class students who somehowfind themselvesin "higher-class"schoolsperform just as well on standardizedtests as their richer classmates. 72. Even after studentbackgroundeffects were accountedfor, however, there remained significantunexplaineddifferences in student achievementat different types of schools, particularly in mathematics. The test results imply that studentsof identicalsocioeconomicbackgroundwouldscore at least 50% higher on the mathematicstest if they were studyingat a federal technicalschool, rather than a teacher training or SENAI school, and about 20% higher if they were in a private school. The specific reasons behind these schools' higher student scores are not clear, however. Given the fact that federal technical schools and some private schools select their students on the basis of entrance exams, it is likely that differencesin students' innate abilityare an importantunderlyingfactor. Surprisingly, average teacher salary levels did not appear to have a measurableeffect on student scores. As was expected, hours of instructionin math and Portuguesedid have some effect. These and other test results are discussedin Annex I. C. A large. diverse private sector serves the poor as well as upper income gromups. Demand is income and price elastic and has movedup and down accordinglyin the last decade. Most of the demandfor private schoolingis probablydue to the low quality of public schools rather thn lack of public school spaces. 73. Private educationplays an importantrole in Brazil. Twelve percent of primary school pupils, 35% of secondary school pupils, and 59% of universitypupils,are enrolled in private institutions. Private secondaryschools enrolled over 1 1 million students in 1987. At 1985unit costs, the public sector would have had to increase its spendingby US$ 362 million, i.e. almost 60% of total 1985 public secondaryeducationspending, were it to decide to finance all secondaryschool instructionpublicly. Another way of looking at the importanceof private secondaryeducationis the following. The secondaryeducationgross enrollmentrate was 35% of the 16-18age group in 1985. Were the supply of private secondaryeducationabruptly to disappear, public secondaryschools could only educate23% of the age group, approximatelyequal to the level of educationalopportunity available in 1973. 74. In addition to formal secondaryschools, which are regulated by state governments, a fairly dynamic and almost wholly unregulatedsector of private %cursoslivres" exists, which ewroll large numbers of students of secondaryschool age seeking instructionin everything from hair cutting to computerprogramming. The cursos livres most closelytied to secondaryeducationare the "cursinhos"-intensive academic "cram" courses which prepare graduatingsecondarystudents to take universityentrance examinations("vestibular"). A survey of students taking the 1987 entrance - 26 - examinationfor universitiesin the state of Sao Paulo (FUVEST)revealedthat 50% of all applicants and 60% of all those acceptedtook a cursinho; 18.5% of studentstook a cursinho for over one year. The majorityof students who take cursinhosattend public secondaryschools; thus, the cursinho can be viewed as remedial secondaryeducationwhich should be included in total secondaryeducation expenditures. However, there are no data on either the number of students enrolled in such courses nor the average matriculationfees they pay.-' Chart V: ESTIMATEDTOTAL SPENDINGON SECONDARYEDUCATION,1985 Total Equals US$ 1.182 billilon public outlays 62% (US$ 609 million) private school tuition payments 31% (US$ 362 million) other family spending 17% (US$ 211 million) Note: Other family spending Includes spending on school-related Items (books, uniforms, transport, etc.) for both public and private schools Source: MEC 75. Overall, the private educationsector can be accuratelydescribed as fairly dynamic and extremelyheterogeneousin terms of the quality of instructioiralservices it offers. Althoughmost older private schoolswere founded originallyby religiousorders, most of the growth of enrollments since the 1960s has been in private for-profitschools, manyof which were initially establishedas cursinhosand subsequentlyexpandedinto full-fledgedsecondaryschools. In addition, in several cities there exist "chains" of for-profitprivate secondaryschools, such as FaculdadesObjectivoin Sao Faulo (which has also expandedto offer higher-leveleducation)and GEO in Fortaleza. These 22/ In the state of Sao Paulo alone, about 8900 private educationalestablishmentsare registered with the Private School Syndicate. Approximatelyhalf offer "cursos livres," one-quarter are pre-schools, and the remainingone-quarter offer either plimary or secondaryeducation. - 27 "chains," which use aggressivemarketingtechniquessuch as radio advertising, apparentlybenefit from name recog u"'nnand possible economiesof scale in administration.It is generally agreed, however, that the turmal private educationmarket has become increasinglyrisky over the past decade becauseof the volatility of student demandand the uncertaintyof governmentpolicy (particularlywith respect to tuition price controls, which have dampenedprofits). Table 2.3: PRIVATESCHOOLENROLLMENTS,TUITIONAND FAMILY INCOME BY INCOME QUARTILE, 1982 INCOMEQUARTILE FIRST SECOND THIRD FOURTH TOTAL Percentof Students Enrolledin Private SecondarySchools 2?% 31% 34% 51% 43% Average MonthlyPrivate SecondarySchoolTuition Paid in 1982 (US$) 7.36 12.13 19.07 41.96 33.58 Averageper Capita Family Income of Childrenin Private SecondarySchoolsin 1982 (USS) 30.50 46.94 83.52 255.67 193.79 Tuition as a Share of per Capita Family Income 24% 26% 23% 16% 17% .OML. 1982 PNAD. Also see AnnexIll. 1. The poor do attend Drivateschools 76. Almost 30% of low-incomesecondarystudents attend private schools. As can be seen from Table 2.3, private school participationincreases with family income, but a high proportionof students from even the lowest income quartile attend private schools. It is clear that a heterogW..eous supply of private schools exists - with low-costschools supplyinginstructionto low incomefamilies and high-cost instructionto high incomefamilies. As a ratio of per capita family income, the cost of private educationdoes not vary greatly by income quartile, except for the top income group, which spendsproportionatelyless on private schooling. 77. The large number of low-costschools in the private secondaryschool market is visible from data providedby the state education councilsin Sao Paulo, Parana and Ceara (Chart VI). Although the range In reported tuition levels is enormous - particularly in Sao Paulo - in all thiee states by far the largest number of schools are in the low tuition segmentof the market. Unfortunately,no data exist on the distributionof enrollmentsacross schools of different tuition levels. Data from the private schools which participatedin the MEC/WorldBank student achievementtests suggeststhat high-tuitionprivate schools may generally be larger than low-tuition schools. Thus, although low-tuitionschools clearly dominatethe market in terms of number, the distributionof enrollmentsacross the two segmentsof the private school market may be somewhat more equal. -28ChOrtVI: DISTRIBUTIONOF PRIVATESCHOOLS,BY MONTHLYTUMON LEVELSIN SAO PAULO, PAQANA AND CEARA,198? AND 1988 Numbma of sahaoft 60 / 40 September1987 8^o~~~Se Paulo. \ 40 so 20 10 o a is 2s 75Pnruic-8S SNovember 9 106 205 1987 305 30~~~~~~~~~ai 8546s.6 M.nUIv oftumber O Omet (Lis) aono s7 35 so nParana Educ - November 1988 20 0 10 0 0 20 80 .40 ISO 70 so so NUmnbe of Schools 104 Mrh18 12 2 0 10 20 so MoRIIV 40 so so 70 GOot (Ulm Source: Sac Paulo State EducatLon CommlLu.Lon, Septembe~r 1987; Parana State Education Council., November 1988; Coar& State EducatLon Council, March 1988 (See Statisti.cal Appendix, Table 42). - 29 2. Volatilityin recent enrollments In 1960, the secondaryschool system was largely private, with two-thirdsof total 78. enrollmentsin private, mainly religious, schools. During the 1960s,however, the public sector, particularlyat the state level, expandedsecondaryplaces more than 19.4% per year, doublethe rate of enrollmentgrowth in the private sector. B} the end of the decade over half (55%) of total secondaryschool places were in public schools. Public school expansionslowed during the 1970s,to just over 10% per year, and private 79. school enrollmentsbegan increasingslightly more rapidly. This change to a large extent reflected a shift in demand towards private schools associatedwith students' and parents' rejection of the 1971 national "vocationalization"policy which mandateda curriculumemphasison occupationaltraining in secondaryschools. Althoughlegally required in all schools, private schoolstended to implementthe policy change to a lesser degree. By the end of the 1970s,private schools' share of total secondary enrollmentsrose slightly to about 48%. Private enrollmentgrowth over the decade remainedstrong, at 10.9% per year. A striking trend since 1980has been a sharp increase in the volatility of demand for 80. public versus private schooling. Between 1980and 1985, there was a 25% decline in private school enrollmentsand a 33% increase in public school enrollmentsin a context of stagnatingoverall enrollments. Over the five years, more than 300,000 students left private schools and public school enrollmentsincreasedby more than 400,000. Private enrollmentsdeclined in every region. 81. The decline in private enrollmentsfrnm 1980-85is attributableto two phenomena: (i) the economicrecessionthat reduced personal incomesand, thus, decreased demandfor private secondaryeducationand (ii) increasesin the supply of public secondary education. Partial data availablefor 1985-87shows a reversal of the trend, with sharp increases in private school enrollments in 1986 (4.7%) and especiallyin 1987(9.1%), suggestinga shift of some public school students back to private schools as the Plano Cruzado raised real incomesand governmentprice controlsheld down private school tuition. Price controls were lifted after 1987, however, and initial data from the state of Sao Paulo for 1988 and 1989show a shift back in favor of the public schools. Out of a total secondaryschool enrollmentof only 3.2 millionstudents, enrollment shifts of the magnitude experiencedduring the 1980s-- and the capacityof both the public and private sectors to accommodatethem by adjustingsupply -- are impressive. 82. Nationaltime series data on private school prices do not exist, so it is difficultto evaluatethe role of private school tuition changesin the demand volatility since 1980. Government officials suggest that the decline in private school enrollmentsduring the first part of the decade (1980-1982)was associatedwith a rising trend in private school prices, which increasedfaster than the increase in real wages. After 1982, as depictedin Chart VII, there is a strong correlation between the changes in private school enrollmentsand movementsin average real wages, with a one year lag. Such a lag might be expected, reflectingstudents' reluctanceto change schools in the middle of an academic year. This data broadly corroboratesresults of research done in the early 1970swhich estimatedthe income elasticityof family expenditureson educationto be relatively high, in the range of 1.3 (in Sao Paulo) to 1.6 (in Rio de Janeiro). (World Bank, 1979, p. 37). - 30- Chart VII: PRIVATESECONDARYSCHOOL ENROLLMENTSAND REAL WAGES1980-87 Index8 Millions of Students 0.04 real hourly wage 1.41.4 0.03 1 private enrollments - 0.02 0.8 0.6 - - 0.01 0.4 0.2 - 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 a/ Deflated Average Hourly Wage In Sao Paulo (1980 prices) Source: Macrometrica Nov88 83. Existing data do not permit an analysis of which private schools lost enrollments to public schools during the early 1980s, but it is reasonable to assume that the rate of substitution is highest at the low-tuition segment of the market. Volatility in these schools' enrollments is consistent with a general picture of relatively small, recently established private schools located in the peripheral low-income neighborhoods of large cities, operating mostly at night and with limited administrative overhead. It is likely that the price elasticity of demand is significantly higher in this segment of the market than in the high-tuition segments. Research on the determinants of demand for different types of private schooling (in terms of price) and the quality of low-cost private versus public schooling are of high priority. 3. Are private schools of higher quality? 84. There is a certain amount of evidence suggesting that private schools, on average, are higher in quality than public schools (excluding the federal technical schools). Available evidence includes: pass rates on university entrance examinations, which tend to be higher for graduates of private secondary schools; the fact that graduates of private schools are less likely than public school - 31 students to nerd to take "cursinhos"to pass the vestibularexams,2' and; the lower average dropout and higher graduation rates of private schools. In 1984, 23.7% of students entering public secondary schoolsdropped out by year's end; the correspondingnumber for private secondaryschools was 14.4%. 85. As discussedearlier, the results of the secondaryschool achievementtest presented in Table 2.2 corroborate this picture. Even controllingfor family income, sex, age, hours of work, the socioeconomiccompositionof the school, day or night shift, and hours of instruction, among other variables, students in priva'e schools did better than students in state secondaryschools and SENAI schools, particularly in math. 86. Underlyingsuch averages, however, are distinct segmentsof the private secondary school market whose very different tuition levels suggestpotentiallyenormous differences in school quality. It is possible that low-tuitionprivate schools are underrepresentedin of..ial enrollment/repetition/dropoutstatistics, becausethere is more turnover among these schools and it is more difficultfor central administratorsto collect informationfrom them. As a result, statistics on the average quality of private schools may be biased upwards. 87. In the high-tuitionschools, enrollmentsare almost certainlydriven by students' demand for higher quality and these students are unlikely to considerswitchingto public schools. Average tuition levels for this segmentof the market are well above per student expendituresin state school systems, suggestingthat real quality differences exist. Private schools in the achievementtest sample, which was skewed towards middle and high-tuitionschools, on average had slightly better educated teachers and paid slightly higher salaries - although not nearly as high as the federal technical schools and SENAI. This sample of private schools also offered 1-2 more hours of Portugueseand math instructionper week. 88. On the other hand, private schools in the sample two other importantcharacteristicsnot usually associatedwith higaer quality. First, average class size in the private schools was sampled significantlylarger than in public schools (whetherday or night session)and almost double the size of classes in the federal technical schools and SENAIschools (AppendixTable 35). Second, the private schools also held many secondarysessions at night. Nationally,55% of private secondaryschool students attend night shifts. Night sessionsappear to be the rule in low-tuitionschools, but are common even in the more expensiveprivate schools. 89. In contrast to night session studentsat public schools, night sessionstudents at private schools scored as well as their daytime counterpartson the recent achievementtest. Unless there are D1/ FUVESP, the organizationwhich adninisters university entranceexaminationsfor the Universityof Sao Paulo, reports a pass rate (in 198 ) of 9. 1% for private school graduates versus 4.4% for municipalsecondaryschool graduates, 5.4% for state secondaryschool graduates, and 15% for graduates of the federal technical schools. FUVESPalso reports that taking a preparatory "cursinho"makes almost no difference in the performanceof private school graduatesbut a large difference in the performanceof public school graduates. In 1987, for example, only 3.2% of public school graduates not having a "cursinho"passed the universityentrance examinationcompared with an 8.1 % pass rate for those having taken a "cursinho." - 32 systematicdifferences in the populationsattendingday and night public schools that do not hold for private school students, this result suggeststhat private schoolsdo a better job of delivering equivalentquality instructionby day and by night, despite the intrinsicdifficultiesof running schools at night (i.e., harder to recruit good teachers; greater likelihoodthat sttAents are tired and have more trouble concentrating;higher security costs; more difficultyassuring ma ntenance, etc.). 90. What makes students choose low-tuitionprivate schools -- especially if,as in many of these, tuition is lower than the average per student cost of a public school? How can private schools which in fact offer a lower cost educationbe perceivedas being of higher quality? One possibility is that public school supply may be constrainedin low-incomeperipheralurban areas, and that private enrollmentshere reflect the lack of alternativesmore than consumerpreferences. There is no systematicevidenceon the extent to which localizedsupply constraintsaffect private school demand, but the existenceof programs such as "Compra de Vagas" in the state of Ceara suggests that it can be a factor.2' Data from the 1982PNAD also support this. Althoughnationallyonly 3% of 1981 primary school graduates who did not continue with secondaryschool gave "lack of spaces or inexistenceof secondary-levelcourses" as the explanation, 10% of students from the bottom income quartile in urban areas gave this reason. (AppendixTable 58.) 91. Even so, lack of supply appears to be a relatively minor issue compared with perceived differences in quality. Among students taking the 1988achievementtest, only 10% said that they attend private schools becausepublic schools either didn't have space or were too distant; 70% said they were studying in private schools in order to increasetheir chancesof getting in to the top public universities. Moreover, secondaryschool students are of an age where school proximity need not be defined too strictly. More than 40% of all secondarystudents work full-timeand may travel significantdistances from their homes to work. Almost all major cities have a problem of underutilizedschool capacity in some areas (generallythe central city), yet none has a program to encouragestudents to attend these schools. For example, even a limited transport program in which students are responsiblefor getting to school, but buses are available to take them home after classes late at night might prove to be cost-effectivein terms of rationalizingschool buildingutilization. 92. An importantreason for attendinglow-cost private schools given by students interviewed by the mission in late 1988was the lower frequencyof strikes and resulting longer effective schoolyear than in the public sector, which is one importantmeasureof differentialpublic/privateschool quality. Facilities are, if anything, more primitive in many low-costprivate schools. Teachers in lowtuition schools probably generallyhave slightly lower formal qualificationsthan the average in the public sector, and are generally less experienced. But several private school directors interviewed stressed that their ability to fire teachers who miss classes or are consistentlytardy is an advantage that more than compensatesfor lower average formal qualifications. 24/ Under the program, from 1984-1987the State EducationSecretariatof Ceara purchased "places" in private schoolson behalf of students who demonstratedthat there was no public schools within a defined distance of their home. Accordingto state officials, the program was geared towards students in poor neighborhoods. However, no explicit meanstest was used. The program was discontinuedin 1988. - 33 93. An importantarea for research is studentlearning in low-tuitionprivate versus public schools. The number of low-tuitionschools includedin the achievementtest sample is too small for extensive comparisons. One potential issue in such comparisons,however, is a type of selectionbias in that systematicmotivationaldifferences may exist betweenstudents at low-tuitionprivate and public schools. Those low-incomestudents who make the financial sacrificeto attend private schools may do so out of greater commitmentto their education,which might ceteris paribus be expectedto translate into higher attainment. This could be analyzedby research tracking the progress of a sample of public and private school studentsover the three year secondaryprogram, with what is called a "value-added"approach. D. Overall, the public secondaryschool system is highly inequitable:the problem is not access per se but low spending on the great majorityof students and high subsidiesfor a fortunate minority. The fortunate minority come from richer households. Females constitute58% of total secondary enrollments.but tend to be clustered in low prestige study fields. 94. Access to Formal SecondarySchooling. The secondaryschool population in Brazil is very select, socioeconomicallyas well as academically. Close to 90% of Brazilianchildren at some point enroll in first grade, but by the time they reach secondaryschool, over 60% of these students have dropped out. As shown in Table 2.4, those who make it to secondaryschool are predominantly Table 2.4: INCOMEANDACCESSIN BRAZILIANSCHOOLING,1982 (Distribution of Studentsby FamilyIncomeLevel)!' GENERAL POPULATION PRIMARY SECONDARY HIGHER EDUCATION_bl Less than 1 SM 30.8% 14.2% 2.7% 1.0% 1 - 2 SM 27.8% 23.1% 8.9% 3.5% 2 - 5 SM 26.5% 37.4% 33.9% 20.6% 5 -10 SM 9.0% 16.2% 30.3% 31.1% Over 10SM 5.8% 7.7% 23.1% 46.8% 23,563,884 2,874,505 659,500 Memo Item Total Students Enrolled, 1982 Notes: a/ This table shows the distributionby family incomeof all studentsenrolledat each level of educationin 1982. Family income refers to total income and is expressedin terms of minimumsalaries per month. It should also be noted that family size is not standardizedand, althoughthe average Brazilianhouseholdsize is four, poorer families tendto be larger. Therefore, a distributionbasedupon income per family memberwould show even greaterinequality. b/ Universitiesandprofessionalinstitutes( 6 faculdadesisoladas') only. Source: 1982 PNAD - 34 from middle- and upper-incomefamilies. However, about 12% of students in 1982were from lowincome families (i.e., below two minimumsalaries total family income). Given this high degree of selectionprior to secondaryschool, the variation in student 95. achievementat different types of secondaryschool is striking, as is the fact that 50% of secondary school entrants never graduate. The PNAD data presentedin Table 2.4 imply that secondary dropouts are disproportionatelyfrom low-incomefamilies. By the time students enter university, only 4.5% come from families with incomebelow two minimumsalaries. 96. Fundamentalinequitiesin the pattern of public spendingcontributeto the likelihoodthat studentsfrom low-incomefamilieswill drop out and that students from high-incomefamilieswill completesecondaryschool and gain admissionto the elite and highly subsidizedpublic universities. As seen earlier, there is a wide variation in governmentspendingper student in different types of schoolswithin the public sector. As shown in Table 2.5, the highest governmentsubsidiesgo to those parts of the secondaryschool system where studentsfrom poor families are underrepresented--the federal technical schools and SENAI secondaryschools. As at the university level in Brazil, the current pattern of public spending grants the largest benefits to those students who need it least. Table2.5: ANNUALPUBLICSUBSIDYPERSTUDENTATDIFEERENT SCHOOLS,1985 FAMILIES,1988 FROMLOW-INCOME ANDPERCENTOFSTUDENTS FROM OFSTUDENTS PERCENT LOWINCOME HIGHINCOME ._____________________ FAMLIES22' FAMILIESb' Federal TechnicalSchools Industrial $1,516 9% 50% $257 15% 41% SENAI SecondarySchools-' $1,880 6% 57% Memo Item (for comparison) Private Schools ($525) 7% 71% State SecondarySchoole Definedas havingtotal familyincome of up to 2 minimumsalaries (Cz$60,800per month in November 1988). b/ Defined as havingtotal familyincome of over 6 minimumsalaries (Cz$200,800per month in November1988). c/ Estimatedaverageprivate schooltuition, not a public subsidy. Sources:Schoolcost data frcm MEC, IPEA, and SENAI. Private school tuition estimateand familyincome data from 1988Student AchievementTest, studentand schoolquestionnaires. See AppendixTable 34. a/ 97. Access to SENAI SecondarySchools. As in the formal school system, within SENAI per student spending also varies widelyacross different courses (AppendixTable 22). Studentsfrom poor familiestend to be concentratedin the lower-costprograms and underrepresentedin heavily subsidizedprograms, such as SENAI's secondaryschools and post-secondaryprogram. In fact, as - 35 seen in Table 2.5, the studentbody at the SENAI secondaryschools includedin the achievementtest sample was more skewed towards the rich than at federal technical schools. SENAI's secondary schools and post-secondaryprogram only represent 9% of SENAI's total enrollments,but almost a quarter of SENAI's total budget, because of the sophisticationof the facilities, machineryand teachers used and because they are much longer in duration than the average SENAI course. 98. Access of Females. In general, Brazilianwomen have benefitedfrom the expansionof educationin Brazil; their enrollmentshares are now comparableto, or higher than, men's at elementary, secondary, and tertiary schools. At the secondarylevel, women currently constitute58% of total enrollments. In the general population, women's average educationalattainmentis virtually the sanmeas men's (3.2 years of schoolingversus 3.3 for men in 1980). Of the well-educated population, with twelve or more years of schooling,45% is female. Women also make up 55% of the college-goingpopulationand 50% of collegegraduates. 99. Beneath these encouragingoverall statistics,however, is clear evidencethat male and female students tend to follow divergenteducationalpaths within the formal school -ystem. By the time females reach secondaryschool, they are substantiallyless likely than men to enter federal technicalschools (where 25% of enrollmentsare female)or SENAI schools (only 7% of enrollments in the SENAI schools sampled in the achievementtest were female), or to do well in mathematicsor other "hard" science subjects. Indeed, on the standardizedachievementtests performed for this report, being female was a predictor of below-averagemath performance (see Annex I). Moreover, the percentageof females in a particular school was even more strongly correlatedwith low math performance. The implication:a femalestudent in a school with a majority of male students or an equal gender balance is capableof performingwell in math, but in an environmentwhere she is surroundedby other female students, average math learning declines substantially. Female students tend to follow "soft" educationalpaths, at the secondarylevel concentratingin teacher training programs (96% female), general education,and commercialcourses (secretarial, bookkeeping,health care worker, etc.) 100. While overall female participationin higher educationis approximatelythe same as males, significantdifferences persist across fields of specialization. Ribeiro and Klein (1982) found a strong positive correlationbetween performanceon the universityentrance examinations,prestige of careers, and masculinegender; low prestige careers were dominatedby females, whose achievement means were lower than those of the males concentratedin high prestige careers. Women composed 80-100% of candidatesselected into education,letters, library science, tourism, social service, nursing, nutrition, and psychology;men composed80-100%of candidatesselectedinto fields such as engineering,agronomy,geology. However, a few high prestige fields appeared gender-balanced, notably medicine, architecture,and dentistry. 101. Most researchers of this issue in Brazil agree that the Braziliansocializationprocess assigns different educationalpaths to males and females. (Saliba, 1989). Consequently,although women are not legallydenied accessto any type of schooling,they tend to segregate themselvesin certain fields. Their academic choicesprepare them for a variety of nonspecializedjobs, which do not pay as much as specializedtechnicaljobs. 102. One way of trying to encourageyoung womento broadentheir educationalchoices would be early interventionsto try to develop girls' interest in quantitativefields, by identifying - 36 - promising students and establishingincentivessuch as special awards and programs to encourage these girls before gender socializationprocessestake hold. In Brazil, this could be linked to special recruitment efforts by the federal technicalschools and SENAI schoolsto attract more female students. E. Overall. public policy for secondaryeducationin Brazil lacks strategic vision and coherence. At the federal level. planning. evaluation,guality enhancementand technical assistance are neglected. At the state level, systems are overcentralized.and regulationof the private sector has traditionallyemphasizedprice control rather than quality control and consumerinformation. 103. General Issues. Secondaryeducationin Brazil continuesto suffer from a lack of consensusabout what the role of this level should be. Although the governmentin the early 1980s rescinded its earlier policy that secondary-leveleducationshould be strictly terminal and vocational,a significantshare of total public spending continuesto go to technical and vocationalschool systems. More important,the continued importanceof these programs in overall spending reflects funding inertia rather than periodic assessmentof nationalpriorities. 104. Issues at the Federal Level. Most of the resources for secondaryeducationat the federal level are channeledto direct administrationof the federal technical schools rather than strategic functionsof planning, curriculumdevelopment,evaluation,and technical assistanceand financial intermediationfocused on raising the average quality of secondaryeducationnationally. Statisticcollection and analysisfunctionsare also weak and appear to have declinedsignificantlyin recent years; for example, nationalenrollmentstatistics have not been publishedpast 1987. The Ministry of Educationdoes have a research traditionthrough its agency INEP, but studies are generallylimited by the lack of objectiveoutput measures, such as standardizedachievementtests, and limited cost analysis. Given the low quality of many state and municipalschool systems, there is clearly an importantrole for the federal governmentto play in providingtechnical and financial assistanceto those areas most in need. At present, however, the Ministry has neither the financial nor human resources to play such a role, particularly with respect to secondaryeducation. (MEC does play a much stronger planning, coordination,and financialredistributionrole at the primary level.) 105. The federal technical schoolstoday are amongBrazil's best. Their quality can be traced to the level of resources they command,the caliber of students they attract, and their organizationand management. However, decisionsto expand this network have been taken without evaluationof where, in the overall secondaryeducationsystem, incrementalinvestmentswould be most costeffective. Because they are handled by different levels of government, federal technical school and state school budgets are never perceivedas alternativeroutes to the achievementof broader national goals at the secondarylevel. A nationalpolicy frameworkcould help overcome what is largely bureaucratic inertia. 106. Finally, there are no formal channelsfor lessonsthat might be learned from the successfulexperienceof the federal technical schoolsto be transmitted and adapted by state and municipalschool systems. States cannot afford to copy the funding levelsof the federal technical schools. But other importantcharacteristicsof the federal schools, particularlytheir decentralized organizationand relatively autonomousmanagement,might be adaptableto the state level. - 37 - 107. Issues at the State Level. State governments,overwhelmedwith the problemsof basic education, do not spend enough on secondaryeducation-- whetheron direct instructionalcosts, capital investmentsand maintenance,or administrativefunctions, such as curriculumdesign, evaluation, and in-serviceteacher training. Budgetsare low, and what is spent is not spent efficiently. State school systems have cumbersomeadministrations,overcentralizedcontrol systems and an excessivenumber of trained teachingpersonnel working in purely administrativefunctionsfor which they are over-qualified. Most importantly,there is no systematiccapacity for evaluatingthe performance of individualschools and no incentivesfor schoolsto improve their performance. 108. A large source of waste at the state level in recent years has been the immense cost of prolonged strikes due to teacher salary policies and low teacher morale, which may also to an important degree be related to the poor structure of incentiveswithin state systems. In part, the salary problem in teaching is linked to a generalizedproblem of public sector salaries in Brazil. But there is also an underlying structural problem. Although average teacher salaries sometimesappear low in comparisonwith pay levels for other white collar jobs requiring equal years of schooling,this is not always the case (see Box 3, Chapter III). Moreover, it should be recalled that the quality of teacher educationmay be lower than for other types of education. At the universitylevel, Ribeiro (1988) found that entrants into teacher training programs had amongthe lowest scores on university entrance exams. Thus, althoughteachers' level of training on paper may equal that of other professionalgroups generally used in such comparisons,in fact they may not be equivalentlyskilled. 109. A second importantfact is that most private schools pay teachers no more than public schools, yet private schools appear able to recruit adequatequality teachers, judging from the fact that student achievement in private schools -- controlled for student background -- is apparently higher than in public schools. The differences in student achievementcannot be explainedby teacher pay or by qualifications,either; there is very little difference in the average qualificationsof public and private school teachers. Indeed, it is very common for teachers to hold down 20-hour/weekjobs in public and private schools at the same time. 110. Private school principals interviewedby the mission unanimouslysuggested that the greatest difference between teachers at public and private secondaryschools was not pay, but the greater autonomyand accountabilityof teachers at private schools. C'" the one hand, with no job protectionprivate school teachers know that they cannot miss classes or arrive late with impunity. On the other hand, according to principals and teachers interviewed(manyof which also work in state and municipalschools) private school teachers appear to have a greater voice in how the school is run and in what goes on in the classroom. Ill. The lack of autonomyand accountabilityat the school level is one of the most striking features of state school systems. It finds a corollary in the sluggishnessand inefficiencyof administrativeprocesses from school maintenanceto procurementof textbooksto the granting of promotions. 112. Issues Regarding the Private S.-ctor. Since 1969, regulationof private schools has been the responsibilityof state educationcouncils (CEE--ConselhoEstadual de EducaqAo).A year prior to opening, a new private school must register with the council, stating its curriculum,faculty qualifications, and tuition rate, which it is initially free to set. State councils are generally composed of about twenty individualsappointedby the governor; their positions are not full-time, and - 38 permanent council staff is generally no more than a few individuals. In principle, the state councils monitor all private schools and ensure that they comply with all educationalrequirementsand regulations. In practice, they only enforce regulationswhen confrontedwith consumer complaints, and in many states even the processing of these is backlogged. 113. Although the federal governmenthas at various points in the past superseded the state councilsand imposedtuition price controls, since early 1987 the policy has been price surveillance, exercised by the state councils, rather than controls. This is a positive developmentwhich appears justified by several different studies which have concludedthat private school markets are quite competitive(Bragaand Cyrillo, 1985; Paro, 1984) and that even when they existed, governmentprice controls were not always binding. 114. While tuition price controls may not always be constraining,strong argumentscan be made for their elimination. At a minimum,the existenceof price controls makes it difficultfor establishedschools to follow a strategy of simultaneouslyraising instructionalquality, costs, and tuition charges. By increasinguncertaintyregarding future pricing policies, tuition price controlsalso bring about some reduction in the supply of private secondaryeducation.There is some evidencethat the numberof private schoolsdeclined during the early 1980sas enrollmentsfell and did not increase again with the upswing in private enrollmentsafter 1986. 115. Aside from tuition charges, private educationis not stringently regulated in Brazil, perhaps because it receives so little funding.21' States generallygive little or no attention to monitoring school quality or to supplying consumerswith informationrequired for better school choices. It is likely that consumers in the high-tuitionand low-tuitionsegmentsof the private school market have differing needs for governmentprotection, yet states' current policies do not reflect this. For example, high tuition schools are likely to serve relativelywell-educatedconsumers who place a strong enphasis on quality and may be quite willing to pay for it, includingthc costs of transportation or time required to reach better schools. Students at low-tuitionschools may be less f.exible as to where they study, becausethey can ill-afford a longer or more costly commute. For the former set of schools, price controls are likely to be meaninglessbecause schools and consumerswill conspireto find non-tuitionmeans of ra.sing school revenues, if a consistentor increased level of quality is desired. Quality indicators, such as publishedannual achievermenttest results or other objective informationwould be helpful to these consumers in findingthe best value school. 116. In the low-tuitionsegmentsof the market, consumersare likely to have fewer choices and monitoringof school quality by state educationauthoritiesis arguably more important. The most importantthing which states can do to improvethe quality of low-tuitionprivate schools is to improve the quality of public schools, as these are the primary source of competitionfor the low-cost private schools and in essencedefine the market. But the establishmentof annual reviews and ratings of private schools and inclusionof private schools in standardizedachievementtests, with dissemination of results to families, can be expectedto improve quality at the low end of the market. Less is known about low-tuitionprivate schools than about higher-tuitionschools, but most indicationsare 25/ James (1987) notes the correlationacross countriesbetweenthe amount of public funding receivedby private schools and the amount of public regulationto which they are effectively subjected. - 39 that the former market is also fairly competitive. This argues for more state regulatory emphasison evaluationand provision of consumer information,and less emphasison price controls. -40 - mH. IMPOVING SCHOOLQUALITYAT REASONABLECOST 117. As seen in Chapter II, Braziliansecondaryschools are heterogeneousin administration, costs, and perhaps most of all with respect to quality. Within the public sector, a small curriculum, minority of schools (federal technical)are of generally high quality, but the large majority of schools run by states and municipalitiesare characterizedby low spending per student and low quality. The private sector is diverse in terms of quality, reflectedin the wide range of tuitions charged. The overriding problem of secondaryeducationin Brazil is the low quality of the state 118. and municipalschools which 97% of public secondarystudents attend. The pool of students who make it to secondaryschool in Brazil is so select that there are likely efficiency, as well as equity losses, if these studentsdo not receive an educationadequateto unlocktheir potential. The low scores of students at state schools on the recent standardizedachievementtest; high repetition rates at these schools; and, ultimately,the fact that less than 45% of state secondarystudents ever graduates indicatethat this educationtoday is less than adequate. For students who were in the top 40% of the Brazilian primary school system, test scores this low and failure rates this abysmalmust be viewed as an indictmentof the schools at which they study. 119. The low quality of state secondaryeducationalso affects students in private schools. The evidence indicatesthat the demand for private schoolingat the secondarylevel is quality driven, not access driven. Consumersare seekinglevels of quality not available in the public sector. The public schoolsthus set a quality "floor" which largely definesthe minimumlevels of quality that private schools - even the cheapest private schools - must meet. More powerfullythan regulation, raising public school quality over time would affect the type of educationreceived by the 33% of secondarystudents who attend private schools, particularlythose at the low-tuitionend of the spectrum. A. Quality and Cost-Effectiveness 120. What makes the quality of state schools so low? 121. Spendingper Student. As Chapter II showed, state and municipalschool spending per student is only one-sixth to one-tenthof what federal technicalschools and SENATsecondary schools spend, and only about half of what the average private school cpends. Resourcesdo matter; the three key "inputs" which govern the learning process are adequatelevels of good quality instructional materials, high quality teachers, and adequateinstructionaltime - all of which can be endangeredby inadequateexpendituresper student. 122. But there are reasons to believe that average spending levels per studentin state and municipalschools are not the bindingconstraint. First, as Table 3.1 shows, average spending per secondarystudent in other countries is not so different from average state spendingin Brazil. In both Colombiaand Chile, moreover, even though the secondaryschool populationis much less selective, secondary school graduation rates are higher. These data must be interpretedwith caution (difficulties in estimatingthe appropriateexchange rates, differences in internationalprice levels, changes in the private sector share of enrollmentsover time, and inaccuraciesin basic enrollmentand expenditure II ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~I - 41 - reporting to UNESCOare major sources of problemswith such internationalcomparisons);however, they at least raise the possibilitythat public secondaryschools in other countries are doing a more efficientjob of educationthan state schools in Brazil. Table3.1: ESTIMATEDAVERAGEPUBLICSPENDINGPER SECONDARYSTUDENT IN SELECTEDMIDDLE-INCOMECOUNTRIES,1985 COUNTRY PUBLIC CURRENT EXPENDITUREON SECONDARYEDUCATIONS' NO. OF PUBLIC STUDENTS ENROLLEDw AVERAGE SPENDING PER STUDENT (US$$# Chile 120,531,100 514,204 $234 Colombia 291,107,374 1,199,100 $243 Brazild' 609,000,000 1,987,688 $306 State and Municipal only 476,000,000 1,912,488 $249 Notes/Sources: a/ b/ c/ In local currency. Source: UNESCO Statistical Yearbook, 1988. Estimated, based upon 1985 total secondary enrollments in each country, adjusted for the private sector share of total enrollments in 1975. Source: UNESCO Yearbook for 1985 enrollments, and World Bank, 'Financing Education in Developing Countries' Appendix Table 5, for private sector shares. Converted to US$ at the average exchange rate for 1985. Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics, 1987 d/ From Table 2.1. Sources: MEC and IPEA. Second, a large body of internationalresearch has shown unequivocallythat, beyond a 123. basic level of resources, much more importantthan the level is the effectivenesswith which resources are managed. (World Bank, 1989) School system reforms in countlesscountriesfocused on improvingthe availabilityand quality of inputs alone has,. failed to improveschool effectiveness, because they fail to achievechange in the way those resources are used in the classroom. On the other hand, there are many examples in every country of schoolsthat do a better job of teaching with fewer resources than other schools. 124. Low SpendingEffectiveness. The real problem at the state level appearsto be the low effectivenessof spending, due to organizationalproblemsand weak management. State schools are less cost-effectivethan other schools in Brazil - one measure of which is how much it costs each system to produce a graduate. Becauseof higher dropout and repetition rates, for every 1,000 students who enter state secondaryschools, only 416 ever graduate. For municipalschools the rate is a little better - 447 out of every 1,000 --which is striking, given that unit expendituresin municipal schools are only half as high as in state schools. - 42 - At private schoolsthe flow of students is more efficient; 638 out of every 1,000 students 125. at feeeral technical schools, graduation rates are highest of all; out of every 1,000 And graduate. entering students, 775 complete three years (for purposes of comparisonwith the other schools)and 745 go on to complete the four year program. With the use of a simple model, these differentialfailure, dropout and graduationrates 126. translate into the average number of student-yearsrequired for each system to produce one graduate, which should normally take three years. As shown in Table 3.2, it takes six years of instructionfor state schools, on average, to graduate one student, as comparedwith 4.3 years for private schools and 3.9 years (assuminga hypotheticalthree-year program)at federal technical schools. Obviously, not all of the reasons that students fail or drop out can be blamedon the school system, and even these students probably gain somethingfrom their education. But a large share of the excess resources spent per graduate must be considereda waste, and the larger this waste, the more inefficientthe system. Thus, althoughthe unit cost of a student-yearat a federal technical school is seven times 127. higher than at a state school, the cost per graduateat the federal technical schooasis only four times higher. Although the costs per student at private schools are estimatedto be twice as high as at state schools, costs per graduateat private schoolsare less than 50% higher. Table 3.2: COST PER GRADUATEAT DIFFERENTBRAZILIANSECONDARYSCHOOLS l (in US$) l ___________________ ANNUALCOSTPER STUDENT REQUIRED AVEIRAGE STUDENT-YEARS COSTPER ONE TOGRADUATE GRADUATE COHORT State $257 6.04 $1,553 Municipal $136 5.48 $745 $1,759 3.97 $6,983 $535 4.29 $2,295 Federal Technicalf Private a/ Calculatedon the basis of a three year program for purposes of comparisonwith the other schools. For the actual four year program, 5.24 student-yearsare-required per graduate. Sources: Cost estimates,Table 2.1; student flows calculatedusing ZymelmanEducationFinance Model from dropout and repeater rates for 1985 in MEC/SEEC 1985StatisticalSynopsisof Secondary Education, pp. 147 and 173 (for details see AppendixTable 54). Inadequateresources can be an importantcause of inefficiency;if low budgets result in 128. inadequatespending on key inputs such as books, the effectivenessof other inputs such as teachers can be reduced. Inadequateresources can also result in inefficientstop-and-startfunding patterns; maintenance,for example, may be deferred until serious deteriorationhas occurred and ultimately much larger expendituresare required. - 43 - 129. These patterns indeed exist in state school systems. However, the apparentlyhigher cost-effectivenessof municipalschools, which spend an even lower amount in absoluteterms than state schools, suggeststhat the low efficiencyof state schools may be less related to absolute spending shortagesthan to inefficienciesin the way state moniesare used. 130. In short, more moneymay be necessaryto improve the quality of state level education, but it is not sufficient. Without improvementsin efficiencyand management,there is a substantial risk that more money will not solve anything. B. ImprovingCost-Effectiveness 131. What are the options for improvingthe cost-effectivenessof state schools? Although there are no quick or easy solutions, different options exist. Three importantones are discussed below. Some of these have been successfulin other countries; some, such as school-based management,are already common in Brazil in private schoolsand to some extent in the federal technical schools. 132. These options represent directionsfor change, rather tl,.;n recipes. This list is not exhaustive. Other possibilitiesexist and should be evaluatedby state educationsecretariats. Ultimately, success in improving school cost-effectivenesswill stem from the capacity of different states to evolve their own models. Central to this process are: i) states' capacityto evaluateoptions, and ii) their ability to experimentwith changesgradually and flexibly. Buildingflexibility into the system is important, as is careful analysisof what works, and why. a) decentralization and school-based management 133. Internationaleducationresearch increasinglypoints to a handful of interlinkedfactors as the fundamentalcharacteristicsof effectiveschools: i) good management,ii) an orderly school environment,iii) strong academicemphasis,and iv) dynamic school directors. Decentralization-- in the sense of deconcentrationof authorityto lower levels of a bureaucracy -- has ',cn called the "key" that can unlock these qualitiesat the school level. (WorldBank, 1989). The ultimate measure of school effectivenessis what goes on in the classroom- student learning. A decentralizedschool system holds those closest to the learning process, teachers and director, responsiblefor it. Conversely,it assures them the decision-makingauthority they need to operate as effectively as possible given the level of resources availableto the school. 134. Decentralizationwithin a public system offers two powerful advantages:first, it introduces competitionamong schools for their share of overall system resources; if resources are allocated on the basis of school effectivencss,strong incentivesfor improved performancecan be created in a system where previouslythere were no performance incentives. Second, autonomyat the school level frees up schools to functionas an entity, taking initiativesand responsibilityfor their own performance;this invariablyaffects diiectors' and teachers' morale and attacks directly one of the most serious problems that exists today in Brazilianstate school systems -- the low morale and frustrationof school personnel. - 44 - 135. A growing body of research (see Box 2, "Are Private SchoolsMore Cost-Effective?") indicatesthat this conditionof autonomyand accountabilityat the level of the school is, in a world where consumerscan choose which school they wish to attend, the fundamentalfactor that tends to make private schools more cost-effectivethan public schools. 136. The importanceof school-levelautonomyis %Jli known in educationcircles in Brazil; numerous educators interviewedfor this report pointedout that private secondaryscheols commonly employteachers who also work part-time in the public school system, generallypay them similar salaries, and generally use the same teachingmaterials. Yet the private schools achie, better results. The reason? Observers agreed that the higher degree of school-levelaccountabilityin private schools was the biggest difference. In private schools, teachers who are absent, consistentlytardy or ineffectiveare dismissed. In the public system, because of contractualjob security and because the accountabilityof individualsin a large, centralizedsystem is so diffuse, dismissal is virtually impossible. In private schools, the effectivenessof school directors is constantlybeing evaluatedby parents and students and strong pressures (such as decliningenrollmentsand revenues)can build rapidly if school performance erodes. In the public schools, the diffusenessof responsibility throughout myriad bureaucraticlevels leaves central administratorspoorly able to evaluatethe performance of individualdirectors, and leaves the latter easily able to find other excuses for low school effectiveness. 137. The challengeis how to achieveschool-basedmanagementin a state (or large municipal) system, in which financingis centralized,resources are typicallyprocured and delivered from the top down, and personnelare selectedand evaluatedfrom the top down. Three major reforms are implied: i) to increasethe authority, accountabilityand control over budgetaryand staff resources that school directors have, ii) to increase the technDical competenceof directors, teachers, and central administrationstaff, and iii) to improvethe capacityof the central administration(and regional branches)to play a complementary,rather than managerial, role - providing incentives,new inputs, and training in inproved techniquesto support school effectiveness. i) decentralizingauthority 138. At a minimum,directors which can be held accountablefor school effectivenessneed to have control over the basic inputs into the learning process: teacher evaluationand discipline, if not recruitment;the organizationof instructionaltime; student feedback, reward and disciplinesystems; mobilizationand use of communitycontributionsin support of the school; and school maintenance. This representsa significantchange from the statusqguoof Brazilianpublic schools, which generally control no financial resources directly, have very limited, if any, internalaccountingcapabilities,and have little responsibilityfor teacherrep-uitment,promotionor discipline. ii) improvingthe professionalismof directors and teachers 139. The director plays a pivotal role in the functioningof effective schools. Unfortunately, the personal and managerialqualitiesthat make directors successfulare difficultto define a priori and often hard to recognizeex ante. In most public school systems, the most pragmatic approachmay be to select a pool of promisingcandidates,but to expect that only experience, in-servicetraining programs, and rigorous weeding-outof those who are not effective, will help establishover time a network of skilled school directors throughoutthe system. A corollary to this might be that formal - BO Z - 45 - AREPRIVATESCHOOLSMORECOST4EMIVE?" A growing body of research in other countriesindicates that, dollar for dollar, private schools do a more effectivejob of educatingstudentstLando public schools. One recent study found that students from private secondary schools in Thailand, Colombia,Tanzania and the Philippinesgenerally outperformpublic schools studentson standardizedlanguageand math achievementtests (JiZ, Lockheedand Paqueo, 1988). In the Philippines, for example, private school studentsscored about 15% higher than public school students in both English and Filipino, althoughthey scored slightlylower (about4%) than public schoolsstudentsin math. Earlier research in the United States (Coleman,Kilgore and Hoffer, 1982) concluded that private (Catholic)schoolswere more effective than public schoolsin impartingcognitive achievement. Although most studies have found that the average socioeconomicbackgroundof students in private schoolswas higher than in public schools, the superior achievementof private school studentsheld, even after controllingfor studentbackground. The research conductedin the Philippinesalso controlledfor differencesin students' innateability and motivation. Combinedwith achievemnt test results, schoolexpendituredata showed that unit costs for private schools in the developingcountries studiedare lower than for public schools,sometimesby a significant margin. Private schools in the Philippines,for example,spend on average only half as much per student as public schools. Research shows that amongother things private schools make more efficient use of teachersand have better teaching processes(more tests, more homework, more orderly classrooms). Private schoolsalso have very differentorganizationalstructures. School directors have considerable financial and buraucratic autonomyand strong incentivesto encouage better teachingpractices using staff more effectivelyand cheaply - becausethey must compete for studentsand remain accoumtable to parentswhopay tuition. qualificationsshould be de-emphasized:performance is what counts. 140. Raisingthe professionalismof public secondaryschool teachers is likely to be even more difficultthan improvingthe quality of directors. The establishedstructure of teacher managementin the public sector limits accountabilityby statute (teachers are guaranteedjob security) and militates againstperformance incentives(there is no bonus pay; promotionstend to be based upon years-ofservice rather than performance;there is no latitude for exceptionallyrapid promotionor pay increases for star teachers; and promotiongenerally implies movingto work in the central administration, rather than taking on increased responsibilitiesat the school level). Systemspresent no disincentiveto strikes as teachers continue to receive full pay while they are on strike. Building performance incentivesinto the managementof teachers will require significantchanges, which may be opposedby teachers' unions. 141. A related problem is that as Brazilianschool systemshave expandedover the past decades, virtually all have moved to a system of multipleshifts - sometimesas many as four a day. In the process, teacher contractingbecamebased on a twenty-hourwork week, rather than a full-time - 46 associationwith a single school. As a result, most teachers work two differentjobs, which sometimes requires them to travel substantialdistaices between schools. The twenty-hourbase contracts include minimal time for class preparation,ar . a teacher who works two such contracts is unlikely to be prepared enoLghto use class time effectively. 142. The level of public school teacher pay is currently a major political issue, and lies behind the lengthy strikes experiencedin many states (see Box 3, "Are BrazilianTeachers Overpaid?"). Given the very high share (80-90%) of public school budgets commonlygoing to personnelexpenditures,there is little latitude for increasingteacherpay without findingoffsetting savings. In most state (and municipal)systems the most promisingplace to pursue such savings is withinpersonnel expendituresthemselves. Often, a significantshare of teachingpersonnel is assigned to jobs in the central administrationor even outsideof the educationsector. In many cases, the individualsare overqualifiedfor the assignments,but such assignmentsare regarded by teachers as plums, compared to the difficult conditionsin many public schools. Organizationalreforms in the direction of decentralizationshould make it possible for state systemsto reduce administrative overhead; savings in this area should be reallocatedto salaries and other incentivesfor classroom teachers and directors. iii) focusingcentral and regional administrationson school support 143. Decentralizationof operationalresponsibilityto schoolsenables state and municipal administrators(and federal ministries)to shift their attentionfrom controllingresources to supporting schools in improvingthe learning process. Some of the major complementaryroles for regional delegacias and state (or municipal)administrationsare: * responsibilityfor evaluationof school performanceand thk administrationof incentiveslike the "school improvem;,atfunds" used in countriessuch as C, ombia and Yemen. Such funds are designedto stimulate schoolsto improve student achievementby rewarding those schools which develop effectiveapproaches. Typically, all schools are encouragedto develop a school improvementprogram which allocations from the school improvementfund can help implement. Both the strength and innovativenessof schools' proposalsand their progress against these programs are evaluatedperiodicallyand bonus allocations from the fund can be made to encouragehigh performers. Schools which achieveless receive special attention from regional and central administrationand remedial assistance,such as the secondmentof high quality staff until the sources of the schools' problemscan be identified and new approachesdeveloped. * responsibilityfor the development,evaluationand dissem'inationof new textbooks,teaching materials, pedagogicaltechniques, curriculumideas or other learning aids on an ongoing basis; * responsibilityfor staff development,includingthe design and administrationof in-servicetraining programs for teachers and directors. - 47 - A AREBRAZILIAN TEACFS OVERPAED? one attempt to answer this questionwas madeby George Psacharopoulosl/,using data from a 3 percent national sample drawn from the Brazilian 1980census. Psacharopoulosused salespersons, clerks and engineersas compaators for primary, secondar and universityteaches respectively, comparng males and femalesseparately. He then statisticallycontrolled for the effects of different years of schooling, experienceand hours worked per week in order to comparethe pay received by individualsin these occupationswho had educationand traiing similar to teachers' with pay received by teachers. From his analysis, Psacharopoulosconcludedthat teachersat the primary and university levels earned less than comparablytrained individualsin other occupations,and teachersat the secondarylevel appeared to receive equal or higher pay than their comparators. At the primary level, male teachers earned 31 percent more on average than salesmen, but they earned 28 percent less than salesmenwith the same educationand experience,and who worked the same number of hours per week. Similarly, female primary school teachersearned on average 18 percent more than saleswomen,but earned 26 percent less than saleswomenwith equivalenteducation. For secondary school teachers, there was no statisticallysignificantdifference in pay receivedby male t4chers and similar male clerks. Female secondary school teachers,however, earned 32 percent more than correspondingclerks. At the universitylevel, male professorsearned about 25 percent less than similarlyeducated male engineers. For univeisityprofessors, the femalesample was too small for statisticallyvalid comparisons. Psacharopoulos'sconclusions,which reflect wage trends in the 1970s, may no longer hold after almost a decade, especiallygiven the macroeconomicinstabilityand uneven public sector wage trends Brazil has experiencedin the 1980s. His conclusionsalso dependupon the validity of the chosen comparators, as well as the quality of the census data used. It is also clear from the large number of individualswho continueto seek teachingjobs, that non-monetarybenefitssuch as part-time working conditionsandjob security are importantin the teachingprofession. In the state of Sao Paulo, for example, the Carlos Chagas Foundationreported that over 100,000prospectiveteacherstook the most recent qualifying exam for entrance into the state educationsystem. The number of openings?Less than 10,000. At the very least, however, Psacharopoulos'sapproach demonstratesthat simple comparisonsof earnings data, without controllingfor other factors, can yield very misleadingresults, and he demonstratesa means of injectingaaalytical rigor into the decision-makingprocess in an important policy area. 1J/ Ate TeachersOverpaid?Some Evidencefrom Brazil,' Psacharopoulos,1987, World Bank EDT 9S. 144. Concentrating on these types of responsibilities - rather than the daily delivery of school food, the micromanagement of teaching staff, the routine stocking of school libraries and laboratories, and school maintenance -- implies changes in the organization of state systems, reductions in personnel, and new skill types and/or significant amounts of retraining. Most of all, it implies a - 48 - fundamentalchange in control systemsfrom "input accounting"to "output accounting." Under the former, regional delegaciasand central storehousesare preoccupiedwith the procurementand managementof school inputs (huge stocks of books, desks, equipment,school food) and the distributionof these throughoutthe system. Under the latter approach, procurementis done at the school level and central administratorsevaluateonly the end results, i.e., how effective the school is in teaching students, given its budget. 145. Risks of decentralization. Decentralizedschool systems run one importantrisk: as schools gain managerial and financiallatitude, they tend increasinglyto reflect the communitiesin which they are located. A uniformlylow-qualitystate school system may well evolve into a system of sharp disparitiesin school performance, with excellent schools in rich neighborhoodsand much worse schools in poor neighborhoods. This pattern is certainlyfound in the UnitedStates and in the diverse universe of Brazilianprivate schools. Parent contributions,for example,typically become a more importantsource of support for schools in rich neighborhoods. 146. To mitigate this risk, it is importantthat state administratorsplay a strong role in equalizingexpenditureallocations, and a strong technical assistancerole, continuouslyworking with the lower-performingschools to try to improve effectivenessand to reduce performance disparities across schools. Starting from a centralizedand relatively homogeneoussystem is likely to make these tasks somewhateasier, as the mechanismsof centralizedfinancing and, in effect, cross-subsidization already exist, in the sense that taxpayers in richer neighborhoodsare already contributingmore than they get back from the school system. b) periodic achievement testing 147. A school system based on incentivesfor high performance can only functionsuccessfully if school performance can be meaningfullyand objectivelyevaluated. There are several basic indicatorsthat can be used to evaluateschools -- repetitionand dropout rates and, more important, changesin these over time; a school's ability to run effectivelywithin its budget; a school's success in mobilizingresources from the community;a school's enrollmentgrowth. All of these should be part of any bro..J-basedevaluationsystem. But none of these directly measures the fundamentalindicator of school effectiveness -- how well are students learning? 148. For that reason, systematicstudent achievementtesting to monitor school performance is used in many countries (Korea, Indonesia,Japan, U.S., most European countries) as the basic source of managementinformationabout the performanceof the school system overall, and the variations across schoolswithin the system. It should be emphasizedthat such achievementtests are not designedto measure student performance(results never count as part of the students' academic records, for example), but to measure school and school system performance. In this spirit, in the United States results are usually sent to the parents, showingnot only how their child performed but also how his school did, on average, comparedto other schools in the state and in the country. 149. Ideally, the tests are given at regular intervals to cohorts of students in all schools, so that "value-added"or the increased learning of individualstudents as they progress though the school can be measured. This, with an implicit control for student ability, is the most objectivemeasure of school effectiveness. - 49 150. Cognitiveachievementtests have rarely been used in Brazil. The test administeredto 2,600 secondarystudents in November 1988in conjunctionwith this report, was the first such test at the secondarylevel. Since 1990, the Ministry of Educationhas been developingstandardizedtests of primary school quality, the first round of which were administeredto a nationalsample of schools in 1991 and will be repeated every two years. Cognitiveachievementtests are not problem-free; they create a well-knowntendency for schoolsto prepare students "for the tests." But this risk is not serious if the tests are well-designed,cover basic areas of curriculumand emphasizethe skills and knowledgerequired to reason logicallyand solve problems. The benefits, on the other hand, are substantial;particularly on a value-addedbasis, standardizedachievementtests provide an invaluable measure of what students are gaining from the educationprocess. Once MEC gains experiencewith administrationof the primary school nationalassessment, it would be desirable to extend standardized testing to the secondarylevel, also. c) improving the performance of private schools and stimulating stronger competition with the public system 151. Policies to strengdhenthe performanceof private schoolsare an importantpart of an overal! program to improve secondaryeducationquality. The private sector in Brazilianeducation, particularly at the secondarylevel, is large, diverse and competitive;it may also be more costeffectiveon average than most Brazilianpublic education. In the secondaryschool achievementtest sample, students in private schools scored higher in mathematicsthan students with identicalfamily backgroundswho were studying in public schools. This "private school effect" was strong and statisticallysignificant. Private secondaryschools also appear to have lower average costs per graduate (Table 3.2) than state schools. This accordswith research results from other countries which suggest that private schools in general may be more cost-effectivethan public schools. 152. Indeed, it is not surprising that a "private school effect" should exist, for private schools have manyof the organizationaland managerialcharacteristicsassociatedwith administrative efficiency. They are decentralizedto the school level; school directors have completeand direct accountabilityto parents and students (who must pay school tuition fees each month, and thus have an incentiveto evaluate carefullyschool quality);and they exist in a highly competitivemarket -competingnot only with other private schools, but with subsidizedpublic schools. 153. For these reasons, some countriesadopt incentivesand policies to reduce the relative cost of private schools, thereby giving consumersa more equal choice betweenpublic and private education, in order to improvethe efficiencyof public educationspending. Typical instrumentsused are tax deductionsand direct subsidiesto private schools, which reduce the relative cost of private education, thereby stimulatingconsumerdemand. A commonproblem with these subsidy and tax incentiveprograms, however, is that they tend to benefit upper-incomegroups most, because the families are more likely to have children in private schools. 154. Chile has one of the few subsidyprograms which aprears to be effectivelytargeted towards middle- and lower-incomestudents. Chile's "subsidyprogram," which has been operating for almost a decade, is described in Box 4 ("ChileanEducationSubsidies"). Per-studentsubsidiesare paid directly to private anc municipalschools on the basis of actual atendance each month. The system in effect gives students a choice amongattending: a) public schools at no cost, b) low-cost private schools at no cost, and c) highee-costprivate schools, at full cost to the student. The shift in - 50 - enrollmentsfrom public to low-cost private schools which resulted between 1981and 1987 is striking. The systemhas allowedstudentsto "vote with their feet" aboutwhere they think they will 155. get the best educationand has createdincentivesfor public schoolsto improvetheir performancein order to attract students. An importantfeature of the Chilean system is that it is effectively"targeted"to lowerincome students, because it excludes subsidiesto the high-tuitionprivate schools which richer students attend. Targetingwould be essentialfor any such incentiveprogram in Brazil. At the secondary 156. level, where 35% of all students already attend private schools, the fiscal cost of introducingany new subsidy that covered all students who attend private schools would be prohibitive. It would also be inefficient, as students currently enrolled in private schools are willing and able to pay tuition -- and public subsidies for these studentswould to a large extent simplydisplaceprivate financing. Above all, it would be inequitable, as a large share of private school students are better-off than the average public school student. Chile's experience shows that private school incentive programs can be efficiently 157. targeted to middle and low income students. If the Chilean model were adaptedby Brazilianstates for secondaryschooling, it is estimatedthat roughly 20-30% of private secondaryschools at present would qualify for the subsidy, if set at the level currently used in Chile. At this level, the total cost of the subsidy (in 1992US dollars) would be on the order of US$50-60millionper year (roughly 10% or less of total public spending on secondaryeducation). This amount would not necessarily be additionalto current spending, if some studentsfrom publicschools(someof whichhave average monthlycostshigher than $20 per month)shiftedintoprivate schoolsand public schoolbudgetswere correspondinglyreduced. The appropriatecut-off point wouldof course have to be studiedcarefully in each state. Is the Chilean model feasible for Brazil at the state level? In addition to being a cost158. effectiveway to stimulatethe expansionof private schools, this type of program could be a useful tool for states wishing to move in the direction of municipalization. One of the advantagesof enrollmentbased financial transfers such as used in Chile is that they provide an automatic and transparent mechanismfor equalizingresources across municipalities. As discussed later in this chapter, this is a major challenge in municipalizingeducationsystems. On the other hand, there are major issues of administrativecapacity which would have 159. to be consideredcarefullyin Brazil. A subsidyprogram which depends upon private schools' reports of students in attendancerequiresa strong governmentcapacityfor spot-checkauditsand regular verification in order to prevent abuses. Such capacitydoes not now exist at the state level in Brazil and experiences with private school support programs (suchas "comprade vagas") have sometimesnot been satisfactory. Developing strong, professionalunits for the administrationand enforcementof a Chile-typesubsidy program would be a major challengefor state educationsecretariats in Brazil. The experiencein Chile also suggestsstronglythat it is better to undertakemajor reforms 160. of this nature after standardizedachievementtesting and other systemsfor measuringschool quality, and mechanismsfor feeding such informationback to parents, are in place. Whateverreforms states contemplateover the medium-term,therefore, it appears clear 161. that the first priority is to improve private school performance insofar as possible by strengthening - 51 BoA: - CHILE'S EDUCATION REFORMSI/ Convincedof the possibilityof achievinggreater efficiencyin education,the Chileangovernmentundertook reforms in 1979 and 1980 to decentralizeradicallythe nationaleducationsystem. The govemmentbegan transferring responsibilityfor most public schools from the Ministryof Education to the country's 327 municipalities,and at the same time introduceda 'subsidy' system, designed to stimulate competition betweenpublic and private schools,of monthlyper-studentpaymentsto both municipaland private schools that comply with Ministry of Education criteria. By 1987, municipalitieshad taken over most public schools and a large number of private schoolswere participatingin the subsidy system. Before the reforms, there were two types of private schools in Chile: non-fee-chargingschools (often managed by philanthropic or religious groups) which tended to serve lower-income segments of the population, and fee-chargingschools, serving the wealthier strata of Chilean society. Non-fee-charging schools received government support, but only equivalentto about 50 percent of average public school costs. In introducingthe current system, the governmentdecided to try to place publicly-and privatelyadministeredschools on an equal footing; it offered equal per-studentpaymentsto schools regardlessof whether they are publicly or privately run. Payments are made every month and are based on actual attendancestatistics. Paymentsvary dependingon the type of instructionprovidedand whether the school is located in an urban or rural area, and they are intended to cover operating costs only. Although paymentsare not tied to the socio-economicbackgroundof the individualstudent, the voucher system as a whole is targeted in the sense that private fee-chargingschools,which tend to serve studentsfrom higher income families, are not eligiblefor governmentsubsidies. The governmentdoes not regulate in any way the tuitionlevels chargedby unsubsidizedprivate schools(whichhave monthlytuition, on average, several times higher than the governmentvoucher). Under the new system, private schoolscan compete effwecively with municipalschoolswithout charging tuition, as long as they maintain student-teacherratios which enable them to cover costs -- the most importantof whichare teachersalary costs. Dependingupon teachersalary levels in the school, the breakeven student-teacherratio can range from 8:1 to over 20:1. To protect quality, the maximumnumber of students per class for which paymentswill be made (for primary and secondary schools) is 45. In early 1992, the monthlyper-student subsidy for secondary schoolswas about US$20. In administeringthe system, the Ministry of Education plays strong verificationand technicalassistance roles. All new schools must be accreditedand both municipaland subsidized private schools regularly receive visits from Governmentinspectors and supervisors. Inspectorscome roughly monthlyto verify enrollments,while supervisors evaluate lesson plans, teacher activities and school facilities. Technical assistance from the Ministryof Education has been particularlyimportantfor newly establishedprivate schools, whose staff often lack experience in schooladministration. The ;lean approach gives parents an equal choice between municipalpublic schools and subsidized priv"e schools (both free to the student). Although municipalschools tend to be more spacious than subsidizedprivate schoolsand generallyhave higher-paidteachers, subsidizedprivate schoolstend to have younger and better-trainedteachers. Enrollmentsin private subsidizedschools have grown significantly since 1981, as can be seen below. Enrolment gains by these private schoolshavebeen almost exclusively at the expense of public schools. High-cost fee-chargingprivate schools have held a relatively constant enrollment share, 7-9%, throughoutthe decade. (Continued) - 52 - (Continuationof Box 4) SHARE OF PRIMAAtY SCHOOL ENROLLMNTS TYPEOF SCHOOL 1981 19S7 Publio 78% 61% Private Subsidized 15% 31% 7% 8% High-CostPrvate Chile's system is not a panacea. Neitherprivate nor public schoolshave been able to overcomesystemic weaknesses such as outdated text books and low quality teacher training schools. Rural areas have remainedlargely uwltouched by the reform, as private entrepreneurshave not been interestedin establishing schools in areas of low population density. Of greatest concern is the fact that there has been little improvementin average studentachievementunder the new system. Critics argue that many parentslack the educationand informationto makemeaningfuicomparisonsof the qualityof publicand private schools in their neighborhoods,and that, as a result, 'competition' between schools has stimulatedcosmetic changes and gimmicksmore than investmentsin educationquality, To address some of the above problems, Ministryofficialsare working on ways to 'educate' parents, by giving them direct feedbackon school performance, such as average achievementtest scores and other evaluations. The Ministry is also launchingprograms to stimulate educationalquality, such as special grants for schoolswhichdeveloppedagogicalinnovations. To aid rural and disadvantagedneighborhoods areas underservedby the private sector, specialprogram resourcesare relativelymore availablefor schools in these areas, Much remains to be done. But Chile's willingness to experiment with radically new approaches to education has clearly injected dynamism into the system. In poor urban neighborhoods, where the population is growing most rapidly, private schools have proven responsive in providing expanded education services and eased the administrativeand financial burdens for municipalitiesto supply these services. Most observers agre that competitionwith private schools has given public schoe' ':-ectors more incentivesto improve schoolquality. Perhaps most importantly,the Chilean reforms have permitteda rationalizationof the roles of the public and private sectors. The federal goveramentis out of the businessof direct schooladministrationand is free to concentrateits resourceson evaluation,supervisionand incentiveto improveeducationquality. The private sector is doing what it does best - delivering services cost-effectively- and is handling a larger share of enrollments. Educators in Chile are optimisticthat with time this is a formulafor better quality schools and efficient use of public resources. 1/ Material in this sectiondraws on World Bank report No. 8550-CH 'Social DevelopmentProgress in Chile: Achievementand Challenges,' 1990. - 53 oversight. States need to develop the capacityfor substantiveoversight, and should avoid expending effort on counterproductivetuition price controls. A first step is for state educationcouncilsto perform private school accreditationreviews whichare serious examinationsof all aspects of school performance and repeat these at regular intervals. States should also introduce standardizedstudent testing at the secondarylevel (the Ministryof Educationis developingsuch testing at the primary level nationally)and private schools should be included in all testing, with results sent to parents and communities. Finally, states should publish performance reports on accreditedprivate schools at least every few years. C. Opportunitiesfor the 1990s 162. The challenge of improvingthe quality of state-level secondary educationis daunting. Yet a number of factors over the next few years will work in favor of states' efforts to improve costeffectiveness. These are: (a) low enrollmentgrowth. It is likely that low throughputfrom the primary school system will continue to constrain the overall growth of secondary enrollments, in a continuationof the trend observed since 1980. With no change in the internal efficiency of the primary system, secondary enrollmentsare projected to increaseby less than 3% per year until at least 2000. With primary school improvements, enrollment growth might increase significantly,but will almost certainly remain well below the pressure of 10-15%per year growth which states faced in the 1960sand 1970s. Low enrollment growth gives states a significantopportunityto focus their efforts on quality improvementsat the secondarylevel -- a "deepening"of their systems, rather than broadening access. Enrollmentgrowth within the ranges projected can relatively easily be accommodatedby most state systems at low marginal cost through a combination of larger class size, rationalization of enrollmentswith a limitedschool transport system (perhaipscoveringonly a few schools and targeted to night school students from poor neighborhoods), and additional night shifts. The current evidence suggests that in most states the last of these steps would probably not even be necessary. (b) incrementaltax resources. The 1988 tax reform produced a phased plan for fiscal decentralizationthat will result in revenue increasesof up to 25% in real terms at the state level by 1992 and up to 40% at the municipallevel. States and municipalitiesalso have a constitutionalmandateto increase their spending on educationto 25% of their annual budgets. Many states are still below this level, devoting on average 10-20% of their spending to education. The combined effect of these measures should increase significantly the resources available to state and municipal education secretariats. Offsettingthe state and local tax increaseswill be a reduction in revenues retainedby the federal government which can be expected to translate into reduced transfers to state and local governmentsfor education. Nonetheless,the net resourceeffect at the state and municipallevel in most parts of the country (with the possible exceptionof the Northeast)is expectedto be positive. Graduallyincreasingreal resourcesoffersstatesa uniqueopportunityto test out and phase in measures to improve school quality. Reforms can be tried out in pilot schools and extended to the entire system as revenues increase. (c) diversity of models. The heterogeneityof the Brazilian secondary system is a third positive feature. The array of educationmodels in different parts of the public system and in the private sector offer low-costways for administratorsto study what works and what doesn't and to adapt lessons - 54 to state schools. For example, the federal technical schools and private schools offer a generallymore effectivemodel of school organizationand management,manyelementsof which could be applied at the state level. The:e is tremendousopportunityfor innovationand experimentationin Brazil which is not beingexploitedat present. Brazil's statespresent natural laboratoriesfor testingout new approaches, and consequantlylower the potential risks of radical reforms. For example, the reforms which had to be introducedon a nationalscale in Chile could be tried out in one or two states in Brazil. The problem is not so much states' willingnessto experiment.Some states, such as Parana, Sao Paulo, Ceara and Rio Grande do Sul, are already undertaking changes in everything from the curriculum to the degree of budget autonomy at the school level. The main problem is that much of the potential value of this diversity is lost at present, because the Ministry of Education has not developed instrumentsfor the systematicevaluationof such experiencesor channelsfor disseminationof successfulapproachesto other states. (d) the size and dynamism of the private sector. The existence of a large and fairly competitive private sector offers an important safeguard. Consumers at the secondary level have alternatives, should public school quality fail to improve; they have demonstrateda readinessto switch from public to private schools and back wheneverthe costs of their education(whetherfinancialor time) exceed their perceptionof its effectiveness. Even withoutincentives,the private sector has demonstrated considerableelasticityof supply in response to shifts in studentdemand. In addition, evidencesuggests that private secondaryschools are more cost-effectivethan public schools. This means that the private sector could be a strong potential ally in public sector efforts to improve the efficiency of education spending. (e) the trend towards municipalizationin education. The 1988 Constitutionconcentrated major responsibility for primary education at the municipal level. As a result, states in Brazil are beginning to consider devolution of the 30% of primary schools which are state-run to municipal authorities. Although not the same as decentralizationto the school level, municipalizationcan offer some of the same advantages,particularly in small and medium-sizedmunicipalities. First, it reduces the geographic size and, usually, bureaucratic complexity, of the school system. This gives both communitiesand school directors better access to decisionmakersin the administration,and makes the latter more accountable. It also makes it more likely that school equipment,supplies and maintenance will reach the schools more efficiently. Second, resources for the school system are spent in the same place that they are mobilized. This allows taxpayersand parents to measure better the efficiencyof the school system. Third, it increasesthe likelihoodthat school personnelwill be recruited locally, which tends to make directors and teachers more familiar with and accountableto the community. 163. Given the extent to which primary and secondaryeducationin state and municipalsystems are interlinked, municipalizationof state primary schools would necessitatechanges in managementof the secondary school system. If secondary education remained the responsibilityof states, it would become more complicatedfor primary and secondary schools to share buildings, although this pattern already exists in states such as Rio de Janeiro, where all primary schools are municipal and the state administers its secondaryschool system at night in the same facilities. A possible alternative might be to municipalizesecondaryeducationat the same time, at least in certain states. Given the sheer size of the primary school system - there are 54,000 state primary schools -- concomitantmunicipalizationof 4,500 state secondary schools (most of which exist in primary school buildings) would be a relatively - 55 - small step. 164. Municipalizationposes somedisadvantages,however, which need to be carefullyaddressed by states and the federal government in order to ensure successfuldecentralization. First, there is a lot of variation in the revenue bases and administrativecapacity of different municipalitiesin Brazil, and these can result in school systems of very different quality. In a municipalizedsystem, there is an importantneed for state (and federal) governmentsto try to equalizethese differencesvia redistributive revenue transfers and technical assistance. 165. Second, municipalschoolsystemsmay havea higher tendencytowardsparochialismin their approaches; i.e., teachers and administratorsin a small system may have limited opportunitiesto learn about new pedagogicalpractices and other innovations. A small school system will tend to underinvest in curriculum development,evaluation, training programs, and other activities for which economiesof scale exist. Thus, there is a clear need to complementmunicipalschool systems with more centralized provision of such services by the states and federal governments. Municipalschool systemsmay also be more susceptibleto patronagepolitics or clientelism 166. than state or federally-run systems. One possible way of reducing the scope for abuses is to vest significant responsibility for the school system in local School Boards, made up of specially-elected professionalsand communitymembers. In countriessuch as the UnitedStates, local school boards can have importantfinancial and operationalauthority over the schools; for example, some have the power to propose tax increases(which must be voted on by the community)in order to increase school system financing. In Brazil, where local taxationis a much less importantsource of educationfinancing,it may be more difficultto give the school system independencefrom municipalbudgets, and, therefore, from municipalpolitical pressures. Nonetheless,local school boards, which have been proposed in the State of Sao Paulo, could be an important complement to municipalization in order to protect the professionalismof school systems. 167. On balance, the advantagesof municipalizationof educationare substantial, and the risks can be mitigatedthrough the developmentof complementaryfunctionsat the state and federal levels and through possible steps such as the introduction of local school boards. It should be noted that municipalizationdoesn't necessarily create the same strong incentivesfor good school performance as does decentralizationto the schoollevel. However, it is easier for a municipalsystem to focus its efforts on school level performance than it is for a larger, more centralizedstate school system. Furthermore, with day-to-day administrative responsibilities concentrated at the local level, state and federal administratorscan concentrateon evaluation,supervisionand the encouragementof quality, equity and efficiency. - IV. 56 - THE FINANCING OF SECONDARY EDUCATION AND TRAINING: EFiCIENCY AND EQUrIT ISSJES The current pattern of public expenditureon secondary educationand training results in 168. large variations in resources per student available to different types of schools. Two parts of the secondaryeducationsystem are well-endowed:i) the network of (55) federal technicalschoolsand ii) the SENAI schools. Both of these are funded at the federal level and have reputations for high quality, effective education. However, the cost-effectivenessof these schools has never been evaluated. Moreover, relatively little is known about the equity of access to these systems, particularly SENAI's schools. In the absenceof solid analysesof the cost-effectivenessof tnese well-fundedsystems,there 169. is a strong temptation in Brazil to believethat the best way to improve secondaryeducationis to expand these segmentsof the system which appear to function well, rather than to grapple with the seemingly intractable problems of state school systems. But the high unit costs of these schools means that investments in these systems have a high opportunity cost: if overall secondary education spending remains relativelyconstant, fewer resources will be availablefor state-levelquality improvementsor for enroilmentexpansionat the state and municipallevels. The average expenditureper student in SENAI and federal technical schools is over US$1,700per year. If this were to be the standard for the entire secondary system, total public enrollmentseither would have to be reduced from the current level of about 2.0 millionstudents to less than 350,000, or total public spendingon secondaryeducationwould have to increase almost six-foldfrom US$609million(in 1985dollars)to about US$3.5 billion per year. As discussed in the next chapter, in the current tiscal climate in Brazil, spending increases of tbis magnitudefor secondaryeducationappear totally unrealistic. Chapter III focusedon the state schools, whichtoday presentthe most serious quality issues 170. education. The most serious issues of equity are posed by the federal technical secondary in Brazilian and SENAI secondary schools, which offer a very small number of students a costly and heavily subsidizededucation;these issues are discussedin sectionA of this chapter. Efficiencyissuesposed by the system of publicly-fundedvocationaltraining administeredby SENAI and SENACare consideredin sectionB. Due to lack of information,this chapter does not discusstechnical educationoffered at statelevel secondaryschools, which appear to have maior quality and efficiencyproblems. Enrollmentsin state-leveltechnical educationprogramsmay be roughlytwice as high as in the federal technicalschools, i.e., in the range of 150,000- 200,000 students;thus, state level technicaleducationis an importantpart of the overall secondarysystem. However,becauseneither consistentenrollmentdata nor disaggregated information on the unit costs of these schools and programs is available at the state level, it was impossiblefor this report to cover these schools. A. Equity Issues in Brazilian Secondary Technical Education About 20% of total public spending on secondary education goes to support the federal 171. technicalschools, which have only 3.4% of public secondarystudents. An additional2% of total public spending on secondary educationgoes to support the SENAI bcondary schools, which have less than 0.4% of public secondarystudents. As seen in Chapter II, the socioeconomicbackgroundof the students in these costly secondary education prngrams is significantlyabove the average for public secondary - 57 - students irAstate and municipalschools. Thus, on the one hand, a favoredset of students -- a large share of which are from upper-incomefamiliesand couldotherwiseafford to pay for their studies -- receives a highlysubsidizededucationat federal technicalschools and SENAI schools. On the other hand, 97% of public secondary students, many of which are from lower-incomefamilies and cannot afford the alternativeof a private school, receivepoor quality educationsat low-coststate and municipalschools. 172. This financingpattern is inequitable. If subsidiesfor studentsat the federaltechnicalschools and SENAI secondaryschoolsdid not exist, the majorityof these students would likely either be willing to pay the full costs of studying at these schools, or would attend good quality private schools. Thus, it appearsthat the existenceof fully subsidized,high cost publictechnicalschoolslargelydisplacesprivate financing with public funds. In an education system with serious overall resource constraints, this approach needs to be questioned. 173. The issue is not that there is overt discriminationin the selectionof students:students get accepted to federal technical schools becausethey excel academically,not becausethey are rich. This is also largelythe case with SENAI. De facte, however, theseschools' meritocraticadmissionsprocesses combined with policies which assure these schools ge.nerouslevels of funding irrespective of their enrollmentlevels have resulted in an inequitablesituation -- a very high share of scarce public funding going to a small numberof schools and relatively well-offstudents. The justification for this pat'ern of public spending is to protect the quality of some segmentsof the educationsystem against the resource constraintsand mediocritythat characterizethe bulk of public secondaryschools. The evolutionof this pattern of expenditures, however, has resulted in high per-student costs, suboptimal efficiency, and substantialde facto inequity. 174. ReducingCosts While PreservingOualit. There are ways in which the quality of federal technical schools can be maintained or even improved at lower per student costs and with improved equity. The Ministry of Education is actively pursing this challenge at present. For example, the Ministry is rightly placing high priority on rationalizingthe federal technical school system, identifying schools which are underutilized, and either closing or consolidatingthese. The Ministry is also trying to limitthe constructionof new federaltechnicalschGolsto areaswhere demand reallyjustifies expansion. It appears tiat SENAI is alsr .agagedin similar efforts to rationalizeits own network. 175. In all of these schools, it appearsthat there is scope to expand enrollments more rapidly than physical plant. The high unit costs of the federal technicalschools and SENAI secondaryschools couldbe driven down to some extent withoutunduly reducingquality by expandingenrollments(both by increasingstudent-teacherratios and adding shifts wherever possible) at existing schools. In addition, there are many instances where usage of SENAI's equipmentcould be rented out to other (public or private technical)schools, which also would reduceunit costs, by effectivelygiving more students access to high-costequipment. 176. An issue for the longer-termis whetherthe federal technical schools' emphasison "hands on" industrial and agriculturaltraining is still appropriatefor the Brazilianeconomyof the 21st century. As noted earlier, these types of training involve high costs in money terms. They also have a cost in terms of foregone educational opportunities, including opportunities for stronger emphasis on basic scientificskills and theoreticalknowleuge. 177. A gradual shift in emphasis from expensive "practical" training to concentration on - 58 academicexcellence,particularly in science and math, would not only lower unit costs substantiallyand increase equity (if the savings were used to expand access), but might also prove more efficient for Brazil, in terms of preparingthe country's brightestmath and science minds for the high-technologyand basic science fieldsof the future. A high proportionof federal technicalschool graduatestoday end up in white collar professionsin science and engineeringand not as industrialor agricultural technicians. The few availabletracer studies suggestthat most federal technicalschoolstudents neveractuallypractice the specifictechnician skills to which they are exposed in sci .ol. Most of these students are universitybound and the critical attraction of the technical schools for them is the high overall quality of the teaching and the strong emph,asison science and math. 178. Similarly,in SENAIsecondaryschools,particularlyon the industrialside, the establishment and maintenanceof the state-of-the-artproductioncenters is a massive factor in the schools' overall cost structure. There is no denying that access to shop facilities as sophisticatedas those of SENAI's secondary schools adds a valuable dimension to these students' education. The question is, does that extra dimensionfullyjustify its high incrementalcost both in terms of budgetsand foregoneeducational opportunities? Given the pace of technologicalchange, specific industrial skills which a student learns today at the secondarylevel are likely to b'; obsoletewell before his or her career is over. International competitivenesswill increasingly require 'irms to adapt to change, and this adaptation will require workers who have both the knowledgeand flexibilityto acquire new skills rapidly and the capacity to innovate on the job. Both of these qualities are enhancedby stronger general education. 179. ImprovingEquity while Preserving Quality. Both the federal technical schools and the SENAI schools need to do more to improve the access of low-incomestudents to their programs. The Ministry of Education is currently committed to attracting more low-incomestudents into the federal technical schools, but wants to avoid using any kind of quota system (i.e., reserving a proportion of studentplaces for low-incomestudents, as SENAI schools already do, to a limitedextent). 180. Given the inadequatepreparationthat most low-incomestudeits receivein primary school, remedial programs are necessaryin order to accomplishthis objective. SENAI already has some modest programs of this type. For example, at least one SENATsecondary school has a pre-entry remedial training program aimed at preparing low income students for a certain number of reservedplaces. The Ministry of Educationis committedto increasingthe remedialprogramsthat it offers. In order to achieve a meaningfulexpansion in the number of low-incomestudents attending federal technical and SENAI schools it may be necessaryto go beyond these current efforts, and to make an investmentin trying to identify and groom promisingstudents from lower-incomefamiliesat the primary school level. Special publicity campaigns could be aimed at primary school students in poor neighborhoods,to encourage students' interest. The federal technicalschoolscould also work with states on specialscience and math "competitions", exchange programs, and other incentives, all targeted to children from low-income families. 181. The most direct way to improve the equity of the federal technical schools and SENAI schools would be, obviously, to introduce "cost-sharing" --- tuition fees to recover a share of operating costs from students who are able to pay. Cost sharing could be implementedeither through: a) the gradual introductionof fees for all students, accompaniedby a studentloanprogramfor those who cannot afford to pay fees, or b) a slidingscale system of fees, in line with different students' ability to pay. - 59 - 182. Cost sharing arrangementsare in theory feasible because students in the federal technical from upper-incomefamiliesin Brazil (in schoolsand SENAI secondaryschools come disproportioniately the achievementtest sample, over 50% of the students in these two systems came from families with incomesabovesix minimumsalaries, i.e., in the top twentypercent of the Brazilianincomedistribution). Any students whose families could not afford to pay would be well-qualifiedfor loans, as graduates of these schools can expect high future incomes. In addition to immediateiyimprovingthe equity of these systems, cost sharing could generate incrementalresources for the maintenanceand expansionof the federal technical schools and SENAI schools, and potentially allow increasing numbers of talented studentsto benefit from these systems' high qualityeducation,withoutdiverting financingfrom the major challengeof raising the quality of state and municipalsecondaryeducation. 183. All of these advantagesnotwithstanding,there is a majorobstacleto the introductionof costsharing at the secondary level. It would be difficult on equity grounds, and very likely impossible politically, to introducecost-sharingat the secondarylevel as long as students at the university level in Brazil continue to pay no tuition or fees in public institutions. The unit costs of public university education in Brazil are significantlyhigher than the unit costs in federal techniial schools and SENAI schools, and the stud'nt populationat the universitylevel is even more skewedin favor of upper-income groups. It is difficult to argue that cost-sharingshould be introducedat secondarylevel until the even more serious problems of resource allocationand equity at the university level are addressed. B. EffMciencyIs.Jes: Incentive Problems of Brazilian Vocational Training 184. There are significantincentive problems whenever training that attempts to replicate the work situationtakes place outside of the workplaceand is subsidized. These problems are exacerbated when the skills imparted by training are both industry specific, i.e. demanded only by firms in a particular industry, and subject to relatively rapid technical change and/or obsolescence.' This is the situationfor SENAI (industrial)and SENAC (commercial)vocationaltraining. For industrial training, which is more equipment-intensive,these problems are even more acute.2 185. The economicefficiencyof vocationaltraining programs depends upon whether: 1. Trainees subsequentlywork at the skills for which they were trained; and 26/ All SENAI and SENAC training is "general training" in the sense used by human capital economists: i.e., training that is applicable to more than one firm, as distinguished from "specific training"that is only relevantto a particular firm. Becker (1963)postulatedthat employerswill only bear the costs of specific training, and that all general training will eventuallybe paid for by the individual trainees, either through direct tuition payments (for exampleto training schools)or in the form of lower (apprenticeship-type)wages, if the training is obtained on-the-job. 27/ SENAI and SENAC offer a broad range of subjectsand diverse types of training courses, ranging from very short 20-60 hour courses to SENAI's full-time secondaryschool program, of 5,000 hours per year over four years. The bulk of SENAI's enrollmentsare in coursesfor mechanics,welders, electricians,machinetool repair and repair of electronicinstruments. SENAC's enrollmentsare heaviest in: clerical/secretarial(45%), communications(10%), health care (8%) and hygiene and beauty (8%). - 60 2. Employersmake cost-effectivedecisions a. among alternativesupply sources for the skills; and b. in how they deploytrained workers within the firm. 186. The major source of incentiveproblems and inefficiencyin Brazilian vocationaltraining is the way such training is currently financed. SENAI and SENAC are almost entirely funded by a payroll tax of 1% on all commercialand industrialfirms.8 Virtually all of their training is "free" both to individualstudents and to the enterprises which benefit from the trained workers (who pay the tax irrespectiveof the number of trained workers they employ). This financing system appears to lead to significantinefficienciesfor both of the major reasons mentionedabove. 187. For their part, potentialtrainees lack incentivesto weigh carefully in their career decisions the costs of obtainingskills that are especiallynarrow or might rapidly become obsolete. For example, SENAI's secondary and post-secondaryprograms include general educationalong with skills training. This education is generally valuable in the labor market and can also make higher education options availableto students. The absenceof charges for the costly practical skills can encouragesome students to attend these schools simply in order to obtain the basic educationalbenefits. As an exanmpleof this, it is estimatedthat at least 25% of SENAI secondaryschool graduatesgo on to universities raiher than work at the skills for which they were trained. SENAI and SENAC are understandablyproud of' their high placement rates of graduates. However, high placement rates, even in well paying jobs, do not necessarily imply high external efficiency. What matters is whether the educationor training choices which the studentmade were efficientroutes to thosejobs (i.e. the costs were not excessive). If students do not face any cost differentialsfor different types of schoolingor training, they have no incentiveto make choices efficiently. 188. Whenfirms do not face the full costs of training for different types of skills, two problems arise: (1) there will tend to be excess demand from firms for trainees with high cost skills; and (2) both firms and students will lack incentivesto choose the most economicalsources of vocational training. Because aspects of the workplace, including work with sophisticatedindustrial equipment, must be simulatedin an institute-basedtraining situation, this type of training can be extremelycostly to provide and to keep up-to-date. For this reason, on-the-jobtraining is often more efficientthan institute-based training for high cost practical skills; in an industry setting, the costs of duplicatingthe work situation, notablyequipment,are low and may outweighthe two advantagesof training in an institute-- i) the costeffective sharing of teachingpersonnel with other firms and ii) the avoidanceof the disruption of work flows that can occur with on-the-jobtraining. 189. Even when institute-basedtraining is potentially more efficient than on-the-job training, Brazil's financingsystem discouragesemployersfrom selectingfrom alternativesuppliersof suchtraining 28/ As described in Chapter II, SENAI and SENAC (both establishedin the 1940s)are "quasipublic" institutionsin the sense that they were establishedby governmentfiat and are wholly financed by public taxes, but they are administered by ptivate associations: in the case of SENAI, by the Confederati i of Industry and in the case of SENACby the Confederationof Commerce. Both agencies have substa ' managerialautonomyfrom govermment. -61 based on costs and quality. There is a competitiveprivate industrialand commercialtraining sector for low-cost vocationaltraining, and there would probably be a vigorous private sector supply response to demand from firms and workers for types of training that are more costly to provide. The potential for efficiency losses is especiallyhigh when underpriced and inefficiently 190. supplied skills are demanded in only one industry and are subject to obsolescence. This seems to be particularlytrue for SENAI, whichoilers training in manyrelativelynarrow industrial specialtiesand can have a significantimpacton the labor market. SENAI'S training can supplya significantlylarger quantity of workers than an industry's firms would demand at the full cost of the training. The availabilityof workers with subsidizedskills can even induce firms to chooseor maintainproductiontechnologiesthat utilize such workers more intensivelythan would otherwise be the case. Some industry observers in Brazil have suggested that in certain industry subsectorsthe p;esence of subsidized SENAI training has even contributed to protectionist pressures, by helping to "lock firms in" to outmoded production technologies. In addition to possible direct efficiencylosses such as this, there are costs resultingfrom the diminishedincentivefirms have to engage in innovativeactivitiesaimed at economizingon or raising the productivityof trained workers, which to the firms are an underpricedresource. ImprovingEfficiency While Preserving Ouality. These incentiveproblems and resulting 191. inefficienciesare serious, although they have not been quantified. There are some ways, however, in which the SENAI/SENACsystem probably improves the overall efficiency of Brazilian vocational training, and these are importantto recognizeas well. Both SENAIand SENACbasicallyconsistof two separate functions:i) planning, coordination,market research and pedagogicaldevelopment- i.e., what may be considered"overhead"functions, and ii) training delivery. Both agencies appear to be effective in carrying out the overhead functions,and there is some evidencethat "spillover" benefits also accrue to private sectortraining schools and firms whichoften adoptteachingmaterials and copy the pedagogical approachesdeveloped by SENAI and SENAC. SENAI and SENAC's effectivenessin these overheadfunctionslargely stems from the way 192. they are organized, under the auspicesof syndicatesof Brazilianindustrialand commercialfirms. These syndicatesplay an importantrole in expressingthe collectivedemandof firms in individualindustriesfor training benefits and in exerting political pressure on the national level on behalf of member firms and the training system. Becauseof these close and well-organizedlinks to employers, it is easy for SENAI and SENAC to obtain informationabout different industries' demandsfor trained workers as well as to "place" trained workers in the labor market. By contrast, it would be very difficult for a wholly decentralizedsystem of relatively small private training schools to invest in obtaining such regular and detailed informationfrom industrial and commercial"end-users"of their training services. A second important institutionalfeature is the fact that SENAI and SENAC enjoy stable 193. federal governmentfinancing. This allowsthem to investin long-termplanningof curriculum,evaluation of teaching methods, and other valuable research which an individualtraining school would not be able to afford. These aspects of the system are valuable. But there is no inherent reason why they need 194. to be tied institutionallyto the actual delivery of training services. Because of the economiesof scale noted above, overhead functionsare most efficientlyprovided if centralized. However, in the delivery of training services, competitionmay be more importantfor ensuring efficiency. A significantnumber of private training schools in Brazil supply services which compete directly with many SENAI and - 62 - SENAC courses, despite the fact that the latter are completelysubsidized. The private sector could be expectedto expandfurther if placed on an equal footingwith SENAI and SENAC, i.e., if the latter also "ad charges for their courses that reflected their marginalcosts. The overhead functionsof SENAI and SENAC could be supported by a much lower share of the existing payroll tax, and the agencies coul provide teaching materials, curriculum guidance, research studies on labor market trends and detailed annual information about employers' skilled labor demands both to private training schools and to enterprises wishing to provide in-housetraining. 195. Because of their short-term nature (generallyonly a few months in duration) most types of vocational training courses have much lower financial costs and indirect costs than three years of formal secondaryschooling. Finding the moneyfor such training generally presents less of a liquidity problem for students than does formal schooling. Moreover, the private returns to vocationaltrainin are generallyhigh and there are fewer externalitiesor spilloverbenefits fo: society as a whole than there are from general education(see Box 1, Chapter 1). For these reasons there is a stronger justificationfor direct cost recovery from students for vocationaltraining than for general education. There also might be less need for a student loan programto k.,companytuition chargesfor vocationaltraining. However, a loan program would help ensure that a oroad range of studentshave accessto training. Such a system wouldalso enhance efficiencybecause it makes it expensivefor trainees to select costlytraining options and then not work productively in the industry for a long enough time to amortize the training cost. Becauseworkers need to repay their loans, they will not be willingto enroll in training programs if their eventualwages will not providea competitivereturn on the costs of the training. This provides desirable incentivesfor employersnot to overutilizehigh-costskills and to utilize alternativesupply sources such as on-the-jobtraining when these are more cost-effective. 196. The financing of training via direct student payments or student loans has limitations, however, in the case of industry specific skills which run the risk of becoming rapidly obsolete. There are two importantasymmetriesin the costs faced by employersand trainees which suggestthat employers should be responsiblefor training expenses in these cases. These asymmetriesresult from the higher costs faced by trainees: (1) to obtain informationabout the returns to industry specific skills and (2) to diversify investmentsin them. 197. It is more costlyfor trainees, especiallyyouthslackingwork experience,than for employers to learn about the productivityof costly industry specific skills. Likewise, trainees face higher costs of forecasting likely changes in skills productivitydue to competitiveand technologicalforces. Individuals will thus attach higher, and perhaps substantiallyhigher, risk premiumsto the same training investments and will be reluctant to undertake these types of training. 198. Risk diversificationis a second importantproblem with educationand training investments becausestudentscannot sell "shares" in their humancapital. On the other hand, firms can diversifytheir investments in individual workers' costly specifc skills through their investments in other workers, different skill types, and physical capital investments. 199. These asymmetrieslead to the likelihoodthat individualtrainees will underinvestin certain types of risky, high cost skills if required to pay their full costs. In these cases, efficiency will be increased if employers assume the payment o mudents' loans for these types of skills. Employers' payments may be made contingenton the amount of time the worker has been with the firm, creating incentivesfor employeesto work not only in the industry but in a particular firm, thus internalizingthe - 63 benefit of the skills training to the firm. Interfirm competitionfor workers can be ensured by providing the opportunityto all firms in the industry to contract for workers in advance of training. Indeed, such a system is not very different in some respects from SENAIand SENAC's current practice of negotiating carefully with individualindustries each year the numbers of trainees to be produced in various skill categories. Brokeringthese contracts, as well as administeringa possible loan system and employees' and employers' share of paymentswouldbe additionalimportantoverhead functionsto be carried out by SENAI and SENAC. 200. Thesetypes of far-reachingreforms of the Braziliannationalvocationaltraining system may seem radical in a countrywhere the excellentreputationof the nationaltraining agenciesmeans that their costs are rarely scrutinized. Even the Ministry of Labor, which has legal oversight responsibilityfor SENAI and SENAC, cannot easily obtain cost data and other informationnecessaryfor assessmentof these agencies' cost-effectiveness.Analysesof the comparativecost-effectivenessof the nationaltraining agencies and a sampleof private training schoolsare a high priority for research, and would serve as the basis for a programto improvethe efficiencyof Brazil's large nationalinvestmentsin vocationaltraining. Even before such studies are completed,however, a few immediateactionsshould be considered. First, SENAI and SENAC couldbe placed on annual budgets which reflect their current level of spending on actualtraining operations, giventhat the payroll tax often generatesa significant"excess"over this level. (As noted in Chapter 11,SENAI and SENAC in recent yea.s have retained 30% or more of their annual receipts for investments unrelated to training.) Excess funds from the payroll tax could then be reallocatedto states and municipalitiesfor high priority educationprograms, such as primary and general secondary education. - 64 V. SCENARIOS, ISSUES AND OPTIONS FOR tfHE FUTURE This year, the Brazilian secondary school system will graduate approximately600,000 201. students. This number is strikinglylow for a countryof 140 millionpeople, with a labor force of over 50 million, and a secondaryschool age population(aged 16-18)of more than 9 million youths. It is a small trickle of individualsequippedwith the knowledge,skills and potentialfor higher educationand/or entry into the managerial and professionalstreamsof the world's tenth largest industrial economy. 202. As seen in ChapterI, the share of youths who attend secondaryschool in Brazil is far below the average for middle-incomedeveloping countries. Only 37% of 16-18 year olds are enrolled in secondaryschool in Brazil, compared with 59%, on average, in other middle-incomecountries and 95% in countriessuch as Korea. Brazil's pattern of low average educationalattainmentmay have slowed its economicdevelopmentin the past; how muchis impossibleto calculatewith precision. But whateverthe past price, the future costs of lagging behind the rest of the world in human resource developmentare likely to be far higher. Without a more sophisticatedlabor force, in a world of rapid technological change and intense internationaleconomiccompetitionBrazil may be increasinglyunable to compete. 203. Over the decadeof the 1980sBrazil made almostno progressin increasingsecondaryschool participation. Enrollmentsfrom 1980-87grew by only 2.0% per year, little abovethe rate of population growth. The secondaryschool participationrate increasedonly marginallyover the decade, from 35% in 1980to 37% in 1987. A. Consttaintsto Increased SecondaryEnrollments 204. We,e Brazil to set the goal of reaching 50% secondary school participationby the year 2000, in order to approachthe current average for countriesof its income level, it would face serious constraints.Even in a 15-20 year time frame, such a goal appears virtuallyunattainable. At the current rate of secondary school enrollment growth (about 2.5% per year) and projectt.' rates of population growth (about 1.9% per year in the next decade),' Brazil will not reach 50% secondary school participationbefore the year 2010. 205. The two major constraintsto increasingsecondaryschoolparticipationare: i) the low quality of large segments of the secondary school system, and ii) low throughput from the primarv school system. 206. The secondaryschoolquality problem is evidencedby the high repetitionand dropout rates in state and municij schools. These are somewhat surprising, given the selectivity of Brazilian secondarystudents. It is undeniablya traditionin Brazilianeducationto set high standardsfor promotion, even at the cost of having large numbers of students in the school system repeating grades. At the primary level, for example, repetition (and dropout) rates are so high that the Brazilian school system pays for 22 student-yearsfor each primary graduate it produces. 29/ World Bank populationprojections. See AppendixTable 61. - 65 207. Repetitionrates can be expectedto improveunder scenarioswhich assume policy reforms. Ideally, repetitionis reducedthrough improvementsin studentlearningassociatedwith increasesin school effectiveness. The options for secondaryschool reformdiscussed in ChapterIII can be expectedto lead in this direction. There is also some evidencethat reductionsin repetition associated with changes in educational standards can have beneficial effects on student learning, by reducing students' sense of failure and frustration. 208. Students' decisionsto drop out may be more difficultfor the school system to influence. Drop out rates reflect a combination of factors -- the opportunity cost of schooling and students' perceptionof the returns to incrementalschooling. Drop out rates in Braziliansecondaryschools may be high in part becauseof the low efficiencyof the primary system, which results in a large number of overage students in secondaryschool. The opportunitycosts of staying iP school are higher for older than for younger students; thus, all other things equal, the former will have a higher probability of dropping out. To the extent that state and municipalschools have older students, on average, than do private and federal technical schools, this may also explain part of the former schools' higher dropout rates. 209. The major reason for the higher dropout rates in state and municipal schools is probably their poor quality (i.e., studentsperceivelow returns to studyingin these schools). The achievementtest results support this view: there are significantdifferences in student achievementthat are attributableto school type. 210. Changes in secondaryschool dropout rates or repetitionrates would affect total secondary enrollments- and the overall secondaryschool participationrate -- in oppositedirections. They would also affect total secondaryschool costs in oppositedirections. A reduction in the average repetitionrate will lower total costs and costs per graduate;a reductionin the dropout rate will increase total costs (but will also lower costs per graduate). Reductionsin repetition rates would not increase the number of graduates, but reductionsin dropout rates obviously would. 211. If secondaryschool dropout rates were to fall and there were no change in repetitionrates, the results would be an increase in total secondary enrollmentsand the secondary participation rate. However, in manyrespects, this would not representimprovementin the system; althoughmore students would finish, the efficiencyof their progressthrough the secondarysystem would remain poor. On the other hand, if repetition rates fell and there were no change in dropouts, the secondary school participationrate would decline, although the system would have made significantprogress. 212. Although cumulativedropout rates in Braziliansecondaryschool are high (50% in 1984), the secondary system is swollen with repeaters; at any given moment, more than five years' worth of entering students are still in the system. This explainswhy the combinedeffect of eliminatingdropouts and repetitioncompletelywouldbe to reducetotal secondaryenrollments,from about3.3 millionstudents at present, to an estimated 2.5 million.' Yet there is no question that this would represent IQ/ As pointed out in Chapter II, there are significantinconsistenciesin Brazilianenrollment data which make it difficult to determinethe numberof new entrants into secondaryschool each year, which is critical for estimatingrepetition, dropout and graduation rates. Specifically,the number of primary school graduatesreported by MEC cannotbe reconciledwith the numberof first-year secondary - 66 improvement. 213. The principal constraint to real progress in expanding secondary enrollments is low throughputfrom the primary school system. Although there are close to 7 million students enrolled in &i grade in Brazi1(abouthalf of which are repeaters), accordingto officialstatistics less than 900,000 students graduate from eighth grade each year. Virtually all Brazilian children at some point enroll in primary school; for almost all parts of the country, access is no longer a significantproblem. And appears that a high proportionof primary school graduates (75-80%)continueson to secondaryschoo The problem is that the numberof primary graduatesis low, and has not been increasing. Between 1980 and 1985the numberwas practicallystagnant, averaging 860,000 per year. 214. Increasing the number of primary school graduates will fundamentally depend upon improvements in the internal efficiency of Brazilian primary education, which is characterized by staggeringlyhigh repetitionand dropout rates. It takes the average primary studentalmost four years to completethe first two grades, and over 30% of primary students drop out before they reach the fifth grade. For every 100 students who enter primary school less than 5 graduate withoutany repetitionand only 39 ever graduate (Fletcher and Ribeiro, 1988). B. Demand Projectionsand FinancialImplications 215. Secondaryenrollments, which currently total 3.3 millionstudents, have grown at the rate of 2.5% per year over the last five years, and 2% per year since 1980. Continuedgrowth at 2.5% per year in the 1990s implies roughly 100,000 additionalstudents per year. Compared with enrollment growth rates of 10-20%per year in the 1960sand 1970s,the secondaryschool system would have little difficultyexpandingaggregatesupply at this rate. Withoutincreasedthroughputfrom the primary school system, which is also growing by less than 3% per year at present, it is impossiblefor secondary enrollmentsto increase - except through increases in the primary-to-secondaryschool transition rate. A simple projectionsmodel with parametersbased upon Ribeiro and Fletcher's PROFLUXOmodel was used to evaluate the impact of possible primary school improvementson the throughputto secondary 31 The hypothetical improvements tested were in primary school repetition rates (across all school. grades), primary dropout rates between fourth and fifth grade and during eighth grade (the two points at which dropouts are highest), and increases in the transition ratio. studentsreported, or with the repetitionrate reportedfor the first year of secondaryschool. The estimate of 2.5 million assumes that the number of primary graduates reported is broadly correct and that secondaryrepetitionrates are actuallyhigher than currently reported. Elsewherein this report, however, such as for the student flows modeled in Chapter III (Table 3.2), repetition rates as officially reported were utilized. 311 The PROFLUXO model uses educationalparticipationrates reported in the IBGE annual householdsurvey (PNAD)to estimatethe flowsof a populationcohortthroughthe primary and secondary school system. It is a very useful planning tool, although unfortunately there are numerous inconsistenciesbetween the IBGE data and Ministry of Educationstatistics. See Ribeiro and Fletcher (1987). - 67 a) Trend Growth ( 2.7% Ver year). This case assumes no changes in primary school efficiency or the primary-to-secondary school transition ratio. b) Moderate Growth (3.3% per year). This case assumes modest progress at the primary level. It shows the impact of: i) a 20% reduction in repetitionrates in primary school, ii) a 10% reductionin dropouts between fourth and fifth grade, iii) a 10% reduction in dropouts during eighth grade, and iv) a 5% increase in the transition rate between primary and secondaryschool. The model shows the effect of these improvementsover a 20 year period. c) High Growth (4.8% Der vear). This case assumes significant progress at the primary level. It shows the impact of: i) a 75% reduction in primary repetitionrates, ii) a 50% reduction in dropouts between fourth and fifth grade, iii) a 50% reduction in dropouts during eighth grade, and iv) a 10% increase in the transition ratio. Table S.1: SECONDARYSCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS, 1990-2010, ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS (in thousands of students) TOTALENROLLMENTS INCREMENTSOVERTItEND YEAR SCENARIO TREND MEDIUM HIGH GROWTH GROWTH GROWTH 1990 3477 3492 3507 0 1S 1995 3848 4232 5331 371 384 1483 2000 4371 4944 6565 894 573 2194 2005 5060 5781 7808 1583 721 2748 2010 5917 6790 9230 2440 873 3313 AverageGrowth (p.a.) 2.7% 3.3% 4.8% TREND MEDIUM HIGH 1 30 1 Source: World Bank projections. See Annex IV for a descriptionof the model. 216. In reality, there is no reason to believeat presentthat the mediumor high growth scenarios will evolve. Even the trend scenario assumes that a growth rate slightly above the current rate of enrollmentgrowth can be sustainedin a period of decliningpopulationgrowth. But even the enrollment increases forecast under the trend growth scenario will have important financial implications at the secondary level. Assumptionsabout how incrementalsecondarystudents would be accommodatedwhether in state, municipal,federal, or private schools- are criticallyimportantfor estimatingthe costs. Table 5.2 shows the range in public costs for secondary education that could result under different - 68 scenarios. The growth rate assumedis the trend case des-ribedabove. It is also assumedthat the private sector share of total enrollments remains constant at .3%. Finally, it is assumed that the current efficiencyand unit costs of each type of public school remain unchanged. 217. The base case in Table 5.2 reflects total public costs if the distributionof public secondary enrollmentsacross different types of schoolsremainsthe same as it was in 1985: i.e., 3% of enrollments in federal technicalschools;6% in municipalschools: and 90% in state schools. Alternative(A) assumes that in 1990the distributionof students acrossschools is the same as in the base case, but from that point on all new enrollments (i.e., roughly 100,000 students per year) are in federal technical schools. Alternative(B) assumes the same uat with all new enrollmentsafter 1990 in state schools. Alternative (C) assumesthat the new enrollmentsafter 1990are all in municipalschools. Table5.2: ANNUALPL',IC SECONDARY EDUCATIONCOSTSUNDER ALTERNATIVESCENARIOS,ASSUMINGTRENDGROWTH (in millionsof 1987US$) BASECASE FEDERAL STATE TECHMCAL l MUNICIPAL 1990 714 (a) (b) (c) 1995 790 1151 778 748 2000 897 1767 868 795 2005 1039 2579 986 858 2010 1215 3589 1134 936 ExpenditureGrowth 3.5% 20% 2.9% 1.6% Numberof Graduates Producedby the Year2000 (millions) 1.1 1.3 1.01 1.01 Average Annual Source: ProjectionsfromTable5.1. Estimated1985unitcostsfromTable2.1. 218. In reality, it is unlikely that any one of these systems would account for the entire incrementalexpansionof secondaryschooling. But the exercise is instructivebecause it points up clearly the great differences in public resources required were the high-cost models of the federal technical schools (or SENAI schools)to be adopted as the standardfor future expansion. Such a strategy would not only be costly; it would seriously risk pauperizingexisting state and municipalsecondarysystems. 219. Under (A), total public spendingon secondaryeducationwouldbe 46% higher in real terms than the base case as early as 1995.By the year 2000, total costs would be doubled in real terms and by 2010 tripled. By contrast, under (B)total public spendingrequired to sustain expansionof the secondary system would be slightly lower than in the base case. Under (C), public costs would fall by over 20% with respect to the base case. - 69 The distributionof future enrollmentsacross the different types of secondary school also 220. affects the total number of graduates produced, as can be seen from Table 5.2. For example, if all incrementalenrollmentsafter 1990were in federaltechnicalschools,by the year 2000 annualpublic costs for secondaryeducationwouldbe abouttwice as high as in the base case scenario, but 20% more students would graduate from the system. Another way of looking at the alternative financial implications of different enrollment 221. scenariosmakes it easier to see the potentialcontributionof the private sector. Table 5.3 sLowshowtotal public costs for secondaryeducationdiffer for each incremental100,000students who enter the system, dependingupon the type of school they attend. It also showshow manyof these studentswould graduate in each scenario. Finally, it comparesthe total public costs per 100,000entrants and the total costs per 100,000 graduatesfor each case. SECONDARYSCHOOL PUBLICCOSTSOF 100,000ADDITIONAL Table5.3: ALTERNATIVE ENTRANTS EXPECTED TYPEOF GRADUATES SCKOOL SCHOOL_GRADUATES(U)_ COSTPER GRADUATE (US$) PUBLICCOST (US$millions) 100,004) P13ER PER 100,000 ENTRANTS GRADUATES FedjralTechnical 78,200 6,983 546.1 698.3 State 41,553 1,553 64.6 155.3 Municipal 44,700 745 33.3 74.5 Private 63,800 2,295 0 0 Sources: Table3.2 and AppendixTable54. The range in expectedgraduatesper 100,000new studentsgoes from 42,000 at state schools 222. to 64,000 at private schools to almost 80,000 at federal technical schools. Although close to twice as many students wouldgraduate from federal technikalschoolsas from state schools,the cost per 100,000 new entrants is about eight times higher at the federal schools. Expressed in terms of costs per 100,000 graduates, the differential narrows (to 4.5 times higher) but is still very lar a. Conversely, the exercise shows the financial savings for the public sector if enrollment 223. growth is faster in the private sector -- as was the case in the 1970sand between 1986 and 1988. It is unlikely that all incremental enrollmentgrowth would occur in the private sector in the absence of government incentives. However, given the higher efficiencyof private schools, an incrementaldollar spent to stimulate expansionof private enrollmentswould increasethe total number of graduates. The implicationis that any subsidy schemeup to the current level of expenditureon state secondaryeducation would increase the overall efficiencyof the secondaryschool system. 224. What do such simulationstell us to guide secondaryeducationpolicy for the coming years? - 70 There are three clear messages for policymakersthat emerge from the these exercises: i) the growth of secondary enrollments is lik ly to be relatively slow over the coming decades; ii) decisions to give priority to expansionof the high cost segmentsof the pub:ic school system (federal technical schoo:s and/or SENAI secondary schools) could increase total public secondary educationcosts at a rate that would be impossible to sustain, and iii) policies to stimulate the expansion of private schools at the secondarylevel, either thiroughnon-fiscalincentivesor targetedsubsidiessuch as used in Chile, are likely to be cost-effective. C. Issues for The 1990s 225. This report has analyzedthe current state of Braziliansecondaryeducation. The analysis points to four priority issues for the decade of the 1990s: a) achievingcost-effectiveimprovementsin the quality of state secondaryschools; b) strengtheningthe performanceof private schoolsand stimulatin, stronger competition with the public system; c) improvingincentivesfor the efficientdelivery of vocationaltraining; and d) developing an efficiency-enhancingrole for government (federal, state and municipal educationauthorities). 226. Quality Improvement at the State Level. Cost-effectiveprogramsof quality improvement at the state level for the foreseeablefuture should center on the challengeof improvingthe management, incentives and organization of the secondary system. Spending per student in state level secondarischools today is not lower than in many other middle-incomedeveloping countries. Moreover, those countries have a less selective student population at the secondary level, yet achieve higher internal efficiency(i.e., higher graduationrates). 227. Several possible directions for reform were discussed in Chapter III. Some of the most importantare: * introductionof standardizedstudenttesting as a tool for measuringschool (and school system)performance objectively; * re;ructuring of state technical schools. States should eliminate equipme3t-intensivevocational programs and focus their resources on making these schools high quality academicschools with an emphasison math and science. This approachcould have the advantageof creatinga high-performance"tier" within the state school systems (possibly with entrance via competitiveexaminations). * consolidationof basic curriculum. For a transitional period (say five years) all state schools should focus efforts on strengthening the core - 71 - curriculum(Portuguese,math, science, history) in all schools, aiid reduce the range of differentvocationalcourses offered. During this period, the impact of these changeson studentperformance should be evaluated. P developmentof strong technical assistanceroles at the state and federal levels. To ensure the efficiencyof a more decentralizedsystem there is a need for state (and federal) administrationsto expand the following areas: support to problem schoolsto help improve performance; design and implementationof in-serviceteacher training programs; curriculum developmentand design and testing of new pedagogicalmaterials; school evaluation and research on determinants of school performance; administrationof special "innovationfunds" to encourageimprovedschool performance; * introduction of incentives for school performance. School budgets, directors' and teachers' evaluations, and bonus pay for all school personnel could be based to some upon extent the school's progress in meeting specified performance objectives related to student learning, enrollment trends and budget control. In order for such a system to work, greater management control over school personnel and school financial resources would needto be concentratedat the school level; * municipalization. Devolutionof state primary and secondaryschools to the municipallevel, as is being consideredin a growing numberof states, is a potentially effective way of increasing the efficiency and accountability of public schools. To be successful, however, municipalizationrequiresa strongcomplementaryrole played by state and federal authorities,to redistributefinancialresources acrossmunicipalities in order to equalize revenue imbalances and to provide technical assistance(as discussed). 228. Strengthening the Performance of Private Schools. Policiesto strengthentheperformance of private schools are an importantpart of an overall program to improve secondaryeducationquality. The private sector in Brazilianeducation,particularlyat the secondarylevel, is large, diverseand appears to be fairly competitive;as suggestedby the achievementtest data, private schools (althoughthey range greatly in quality) may be more cost-effective on average than most Brazilian public education. Governmentpolicies should concentrateon stronger substantiveoversightof private schools, rather than counterproductivetuition price controls. Specific recommendationsinclude: * inclus,on of private schools in the administration of regular student achievementtests; * strengtheningof state educationcouncils,or developmentof an alternative capacity within state education secretariats to carry out private school accreditation reviews which are serious examinationsof all aspects of school performance, at regular intervals; - 72 * provision of technicalassistanceto low quality Drivateschoolsthat wish to improve quality (perhapson a fee basis); and * publication of annual performance reports on all accredited private schools. Aggregatepublic resourcesfor secondaryeducation,which are likely to remain constrained, 229. will go farther if some share is efficiently used to stimulateprivate school expansion. For budgetary reasons and equity reasons, however, any incentivesshould be restricted to schools which serve lowincome students. Any program of financial incentivesto private schoolsmust also be accompaniedby a greatly strengthenedandit capacityat the state level to prevent abuses. Improving Public Vocational Training Efficiency. In 1987, the combined budgets of 230. 364 million)and SENAC (US$ 191 million)roughly equalledtotal state-levelspendingon (US$ SENAI Whether the current schooling/trainingbalance is providing the appropriatemix education. secondary of skills for Brazil's future needs is a question that must constantly be reassessed. Steps that could improvethe efficiencyof public spendingon vocationaltraining include: i limit payroll tax transfers to SENAI and SENAC to the level of their actual expenditureson training; gradually reduce federal funding for SENAI and SENAC to a level sufficient for the financing of coordinationand overhead functions, and allow training services to be providedon a competitivebasis by private sector schools and employers. Effidency-Enhandng Role for Government. Implicitin many of the above options is a 231. new role for public educationsecretariatsat all levelsof government. The new role placesmuch stronger emphasison accreditation,oversight,p rformanceevaluation,research, technicalassistanceand financial intermediation. It places reduced emphasison direct school administration. More decentralizedpublic school systems could provide federal and state administratorswith opportunitiesto invest adequatelyfor the first time in curriculum development, in-service teacher training, student testing and evaluation, school performance evaluation, school budget reviews and resource allocation and research. In a decentralized system these critically important functions will tend to be underfunded if not handled centrally. Some of the most importantfunctionshave beenmentionedelsewherein this section, but bear repeating: * dcign. administrationand analysis of achievementtests for public and private students at least every two years; * curriculumdevelopment,in-serviceteacher training programs. and other central support servicesfor the benefit of all public and private schools; * private school oversight and accreditation.and possible administrationof a targeted incentive program; and - 73 * annualpublic schooi performance .valuations and budgetreviews, which become the basis for funding allocation decisions for a network of decentralizedpublic schools. 232. An Agenda for Research. This report attemptedto draw together availablestudies, official statistics and other informationon the Brazilian secondary educationand publicly-financedvocational training systems. As noted throughout, however, there are many importantquestions which cannot be analyzed at present due to the lack of information. The most importantof these "knowledgegaps" ara recapitulated below, in the hope that they can help to define a priority research agenda for Brazilian scholars and governmentofficials. a) systematicdata on secondaryschool studentachievement. The cognitiveachievement test administeredto a sample of students for this report yielded valuableinsights, but also raised numerous questionsabout the relative importanceof "school factors" and "student backgroundfactors" in explainingthe very different average levels of student achievementat different typ_s of schools. Further student testing, on a basis which controls for student ability, is an importantnext step. b) studies of student performance and school quality at low-tuition private schools. Almost nothing is knownabout the quality of these low-tuitionschools, which appear to represent a large share of the private school market. Key questionsare: How much do students learn at these schools? What is the "quality" of faculty at these schools compared with public schools (as measuredby teachers' performance on standardized cognitivetests and other indicators,such as averagelevelsof educationand pay)? What is the ratio of "effective"class hours (classes actuallyheld) to theoreticalclass hours in these schools? c) studies of comparativecosts and studentperformancein low-tuitionprivate schools and Dublicschools. What are expendituresper student in these schools? How does the structureof expenditure(i.e., personnel,materials,maintenance,profits, etc.) compare? How do students of comparablesocioeconomicbackgroundperform on standardized achievementtests, controllingfor student ability? How do repetition and graduation rates for studentsof comparablesocioeconomicbackgroundcompare? d) studies of the comparativecost-effectivenessof SENAI. SENAC and private vocational training schools. What kinds of studentsgo to SENAI or SENAC, rather than private vocationalschools (in termsof studentsocio-economicbackgroundand studentability- measured by standardizedtests)? How do costs per studenthour for the same types of training compare? How does the structure of expenditure compare? How does teacher quality (measured by teacher performance on standardized tests and other indicators)compare? How well do SENAI and SENAC graduates subsequentlydo in the labor market (in terms of job placement, incrementalearnings, and promotions) compared with similar graduates of private vocational schools (i.e., controlling for student innate ability, socio-economicbackground,job experience,etc.)? - 74 - 233. Beyond these specific researchtopics, there is a more general need for expanded work in the economicsof educationin Brazil. Since the seminal works of Langoni and de Moura Castro in the 1970s,little work has been done on the returns to educationin Brazil. At present, the analyticalbasis for decisions about what types of investmentsin the educationsystem are most justified is inadequate. Tte 1990 census will yield a wealth of data that could be used by education researchers. Updated estimatesof the private and socialreturns to differentlevels and types of educationwouldprovide critical measuresof the importanceof educationinvestmentsfor the growth of the Brazilianeconomy, and could offer policymakersa valuable tool for grappling with the educationchallengesof the 1990s. - 75 - STATISTICALAPPENDIX Chaner I: CHANGINGEDUCATIONALNEEDS OF THE BRAZILIANECONOMY Table 1 Gross Output per Worker in Manufacturing,SelectedCountries, 1970-1985 Table 2 Real Earnings per Employeein Manufacturing,SelectedCountries, 1980-1985 Table 3 Returns to Investmentin Education,By Region, Type and Level Chapter II: SECONDARYAND VOCATIONALEDUCATIONIN BRAZIL: CRITICAL CHARACTERISTICS ENROLLMENTS Table 4 Growth of Secondaryschool Enrollmentsby Tyne of School (Brazil 1970-1987) Table 5 INitial Enrollmentsand EnrollmentRAtes in SecondarySchools (Brazil, 1970-1987) Table 6 Grovth of SecondarySchoolEnrollmentsby Type of School and Region (1970-1987) Table 7 SecondarySchool Participation,By Region, 1970-1987 Table 8 Age Distributionof SecondarySchool Students, 1985 Table 9 Age Distributionof SecondarySchool Studentsas share of Total Enrollments, 1985 Table 10 AverageAge of Students who Attendedand Did Not Attend SecondarySchool in 1982 Table 11 Percentageo-.SecondaryStudentsEnrolled in Night Classes by Family Income Quartile and Region, 1982 Table 12 Percentageof SecondaryStuder Enrolled in Night Classes by Type of School, 1982 Table 13 Distributionof SecondarySchool and Training Enrollments,By Type of School, 1985 dOC TONAL TRAINING Table 14 Enrollmentsin SENAI, By Program, 1984- 1987 Table 15 Structure of SENAI Programs, 1987 Table 16 Enrollmentsin SENAC, By Program, 1985 - Table 17 76 - SENAC: Distributionof Studentsby Age, Gender and Level of Education Completed, 1986 EXPENDITURE Table 18 Total Public Expenditureon SecondaryEducationand Training by Type of School, 1985 Table 19 Total EducationExpendituresand ExpendituresPer Pupil, 1980-1985,in millions of US$ Table 20 SENAI, Sao Paulo: Expendituraby Program, 1985 Table 21 SENAI, Sao Paulo: EstimatedTotal Expenditureby Program, 1985 Table 22 SENAI, Sao Paulo: Program Budgetsand estimatedUnit Costs, 1985 ACHIEVEMENTTEST SAMPLE Table 23 StudentAchievementTest Sample, November 1988 Table 24 Mean StudentAchievementTest Scores, November1988 Table 25 Distributionof Student Sampleby Gender, Type of School and Shift (Day or Night School), November 1988 Table 26 Distributionof StudentSampleby Age, Type of School and Shift (Day or Night School), November 1988 Table 27 Percentageof StudentSample AttendingNight School, By Type of School, November 1988 Table 28 Reasons for AttendingPrivate School, November1988 Table 29 Distributionof StudentSample,By Program, November 1988 Table 30 Distribtuionof StudentSampleby Father's Level of Education, November1988 Table 31 Distributionof StudentSampleby Mother's Level of Education, November 1988' Table 32 Percentageof StudentSample Who Work and Hours Worked, November 1988 Table 33 Disirlbutionof Student Sampleby Father's Occupation,November 1988 Table 34 Distributionof Student Sampleby Family Income Level, November 1988 - 77 - l1ole 35 Average Class Size by Type of School and Program, November 1988 Table 36 Average Hours of PortugueseInstructionper Week, By Type of School, November 1988 Table 37 Average Hours of Math Instructionper Week, By Type of School and Program, November 1988 Table 38 Tuition (in MinimumSalaries)by Type of School and Program, November 1988 Table 39 Average Teacher Salary By Type of School and Program, November 1988 PRIVATESECTOR Table 40 Private SecondarySchool Participation, By Family Income Qkartile and Region, 1982 Table 41 Average MonthlyPrivate SecondarySchool Tuition Paid, By Family Income Quartile and Region (in US$), 1982 Table 42 AveragePrivate Monthly SecondarySchool TutiouiRates in Three States, 1987 and 1988 Table 43 A.verageFamily per capita Incomeof Students Attendig Private SecondarySchool (in US$), 1982 Table 44 Tuition as a Percentageof Family per cRaitaIncome, By Family Income Quartile and Location, 1982 Table 45 Characteristicsof Sampleof Twelve Private SecondarySchools in Fortaleza, Ceara January 1989 EDUCATIONALACCESS Table 46 SecondarySchool Participationby Gender and Family Income Quartile, 1982 Table 47 Female Share of SecondaryEnrollments, 1981-1987 Table 48 Male and Female Enrollmentsin Federal Technical Schools, 1979 Table 49 Growth of SecondarySchool Enro!ltents by Gender, 1981-1987 Table 50 SecondarySchool Participation,By Family Income Quartile, Race and Region, 1982 Table 51 Percentageof Students Entering SecondarySchool in 1982 by Level of Education Attained by Father and Family IncomeQuartile - 78 Table 52 Level of EducationAttainedby Father Comparedwith taht of child, 1982 Table 53 Percentageof StudentsEntering SecondarySchool in 1982by Type of School Attendedin 1981 and Family Income Quartile Chapter III: IMPROVINGSCHOOLOUALrrY AT REASONABLECQST Table 54 StudentFlows at Different SecondarySchools, 1984 Table 55 Number of Schools,Teachers, Studentsand Student-TeacherRatios, 1980, 1985. Table 56 Percentageof Drop-Outs, -tilures, Repeaters and Graduatesby Type of School, 1970-1987 Table 57 Number of Drop-Outs, Failures, Repeaters and Graduatesby Type of School, 19701987 Table 58 Reasonsfor Dropping Out of School, Urban Students, 1982 Table 59 Reasonsfor Droping Out of School, Rural Students, 1982 Table 60 Reasonsfor Dropping Out of School, All Students, 1982 Chater V: ISSUESFOR THE FUTURE Table 61 Overall PopulationGrowth and Projected Growthof the SecondarySchool-Age Population -79- Table 1: GROSS OUTPUT PER WORKER IN MANUFACTURINGIN SELECTED COUNTRIES, 'X761985. Country l - :- -cotomba Source: 1970 l8r0*II Gross OutwutPer Emnlovee (indexBasis,1980-100) 1980 1985 0 ?71 100 8 100 12 Korea 40 100 141 World DevelopmentReport, 1989 : -80- Table2: REAL EARNINGSPERWORKERIN MANUFACTURINGIN SELECTED COUNTRIES,1980,1985. Earningsoer Emolov6e (IndexBasis, 1980-100) Country Source: 1980 1985 Brazil 100 Colombia 100 11 Korea 100 12v WorldDevelopmentReport,1989 43 : -81- Tale3: RETURNS TO INVESTIET IN EDUCAIION, BY REGION, TYPE AND LEVEL Number of Social Private countries Region Primary Secondary Higher Arrica 28 17 13 45 26 32 16 Asia 27 15 13 31 15 18 10 Latin America 26 18 16 32 23 23 10 Europe, Middle East and North Africa 13 10 8 17 13 13 9 Developing Countries 24 15 13 31 19 22 45 Developed Countries ... 11 9 .;. 12 12 15 Primary Secondary Higher Notos: only the cost of edution to the individual. In conutrast, social based on the Nl cost of education to society, so they are compaatively lower. ... Data wore not available because no control group of illiterates was available. Source: C. Psacharopoulos,'Returns to Education:A Further InternationalUpdateand Implications.' JournUof Hun Resourcms. Vol 20, No.4 (1985),pp. 583-604;AppendixTable A-1 Private Reuns tak into account reporting retras are -82- Ia;A GROWTH OF SECONDARYSCROOL ENROLLMENTSBY TYPEOF SCHOOL ADMISTATIVA EVOLUCAODAMATRICULADE SEGUNDOGRAUPOI DEPENDENCIA 1970 - 1987 _BRAZI MATRICULAFINAL MATRICULAINICIAL _PUBLICO 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Fonte: SEEC/MEC b50,619 632,373 744,766 843,36S 944,865 1,058,867 1,202,954 1,310,287 1,364,015 1,419,245 1,508,261 1,601,282 1,696,682 1,814,252 1,919,G6 2,011,910 2,113,037 2,098,648 PARTICULAR TOTAL 452,856 487,048 555,171 634,286 736,863 877,036 1,009,795 1,127,414 1,174,221 1,238,833 1,310,921 1,219,716 1,177,823 1,129,845 1,032,561 1,004,22.8 1,051,611 1,147,770 1,003,475 1,< *21 r 7 1,2,. 1,477,660 1,681,728 1,935,903 2,212,749 2,437,701 2,538,236 2,658,078 2,819,182 2,820,998 2,874,505 2,944,097 2,951,624 3,016,138 3,164,678 3,246,418 PUBLICO IJARTICULAR 525,P68 594,821 657,737 754,639 794,339 889,941 986,783 1,071,023 1,110,781 1,15t 168 1,236,%78 1,292,zi 9 1,421,936 1,401,392 1,463,473 1,541,295 1,602,015 ... 436,454 466,677 521,859 575,61? 655,130 771,543 892,365 996,295 1,076,306 1,014,261 1,086,925 1,064,859 1,012,748 966,389 884,255 874,034 910,494 ... TOTAL 962.422 1,061,498 1,179,596 1,330,251 1,449,469 1,661,484 1,879,148 2,067,318 2,187,087 2,178,529 2,323,903 2,357,078 2,434,684 2,367,781 2,347,728 2,415,329 2,512,509 ... -83- Ia±5: INTMALENROUMENTS AND ElOLLNSN RATESIN SECONDARYSCHOOLS MATRICULA RUCIALNO SEGUNDO GRAUE TAXADE PARTICEPACAO BRAZL 1970 - 1987 MATRIJM& ANO 15-19 ANOS - - ,7 POPULACAO 16-18 TOTAL t227',5¶7 jAXDa ANOS UQUILA 7,Q¶t95 t935,93 Mr. jog?-: - I,966;62 2,874,505 ?t.? sa - t 'X' 4'a ws. ?~~~~~~~~~~~~~Z i-onto .<-. . .>. u BRUTA 17.5- 27.6 2Si.e 34.6 23.9 34.6 , , 35.t: a. -3.... 37.4 1967 it2=04 S264t9 8,68,606 t 25.4 Enrollments since 1985 are unofficial estimates prepared on the basis of Incomplete MEC data A* - -seo -- 38,,195 PARTICIPACAQ (9) SEEC/MEC, ISGE Table 6GROWTH OP SECONDARYSCHOOLENROLLMENTSBY TYPE OP SCHOOLAND REGION ADMURITRATIVA. FROUNDOASREGIOBS NOSEGUNDOGRAUFORDEPENDENCIA eVOLUCAO DA MATRICULAS MATRICULAEINAL Mb.IR.ULAINIAL RGIRE ANO 1070 1075 16"0 1016.067 20.6" 125.1" 1663 lo64 1IS 16 I"? WM 102.121 106.306 113.674 1070 1975 160 1tO 1 21'.006 30.6614 310.62 3.140 424.657 437.474 46.2017 47." 4161.121 Io2 Ion 1o4 1965 166" 167 070 1W.IN6 1675 t60 lltl 1662 19t3 1664 1665 166 166 RM Om 33. "6.313 63.413 lll 11.?" "Tim6 2.373 746.487 7Won0 6I,.tU 61 041.102 165.007 677.011 1070 1075 1960 161 162 10613 1664 les5 t66 107.161 21g m VII.74 31tO613 322.720 328433 330.500 342.164 353.104 1670 Wi75 960 tfft 1n2 1663 964 9865 196 1667 31.M02 70.44 104.706 120'.97 133.000 137.032 161.033 160.021 162.116 1967 TOTAL 27.402 86.3 72,5 los1 1062 REII.0_fuWas PUPUCA PARTICULAR 16.676 10.824 186647 20761 340.241 163.416 27.666. 16.76 I 112.56 24.610 0o366 75.070 119.741 1256.649 t06.174 131.63I 7.601 74J01 63*3? 60.46 ... 160.122 1624 3.2 t145. 2.,l 66.0166 3"56.6261576M61 2. 2M.43 216.0" 0."64 237.6 65.80" 237.046 6o5 3O.51 720.804 270.34 774.675 151414 j1" t0.1 671.1 547.676 572.377 6."6 W.3 145.341 166,17 105,030 . 157.513 1"5.0) 180.5 140, 151.3 155.00 13.704 32.06 610.621 U.8 60.371 61.0, 4.8"4 47.704 81.504 80.102 .0"4 111.376 70MM $81.36 maw 76617 7103 66.24 PUBUCA PARTICULAR 15.821 0.9u0 1t0 36.401 571.0 S.04.310 1.46.246 1.467.460 1.456.127 1.470.6 1.40 1.493.0 1.67Y1.14 1.606. 174.404 87.416 101.0, 16567 247.0 m617*6 2 316.304 3t6 326.750 3t6.66 37IN7 ... 214.027 433.034 Won ma 706N71 "651. 063,06 . 70.125 76766 ... 497.061 44.54 480*43 484.702 480.127 401.017 05.177 496.647 86.010 1711.151 241.76 142.370 2.723 240.676 246.10 262.496 2P 6 ... 44.70 102.650 10.O63 176.770 183.077 16U,070 200.47 208.3226 114.012 219.560 20.404 67.070 93.034 9o.606 101.120 105.30o 10t094 11.140 116.24 ... 35187 22.767 24.646 .1.8" TOTAL 15.611 5274 48.041 106.610 705.01 TAXA DE EVASAOIMIATA I%L PUJLICA PARTICULAR 7.45 564 .06 11.02 TOTAL 6.75 10.39 1267 32.43 19.0 23.7 2.70 30.04 4.16 840 6.6 01.33 16.43 ts.64 1564 14.6t l117 . I6.U2 16.4 IL34 11.01 0.75 156.0 25.00 19.62 10.43 ti.U4 19.004 10.764 2I.06 ... 065 04.166 " a72 111SO 76.66 42*31 321.67 15 I7. 331.43 47MW 50 .1 2U.437 g0o 4 216.017 5It217 6.443 .166 3.66 12.U3 10.52 13t4 10.00 23652 22.7 21.76 21.23 M60*10 661.613 185 179 16 14.76 16 10.35 | 14.46 10.1 17.02 M0 221.0U .n 15.01 27.05 21.04 21.10 II.16 4.07 0.76 A6.1S 4 12.3 21.0 20.13 10o.4 16.07 ... 175.663 40. MM IA3.M 1*11.681 16.70 1.104.7W 1.164.603 16.574 466.168 136.07 ... ... 16.0 t0.32 21.07 21.87 2263 24.1 ... 61.102 132.340 147.306 141.010 128.810 13?7.6 12t.900 12,.961 126.830 ... 116.l1 310.41 310.065 36t3,.3 304. 387.73 377.15t 381.446 3605 ... 11.33 4I.5 5.301 137.246 143.065 147.6o 147.200 152.24 101.140 1t4.21 ... 0301 11.343 056105 543.651 460.045 476440 12.160 27.863 44.211 46.127 456657 41.643 44,100 46.000 45.6076 ... 14.07 11.67 14.4 14.17 12.7 126. ... 17.43 11.08 16.74 16.a 1910 20.37 ... 27.12 24.14 20960 23.6 20.92 26.30 27.00 ... 6.17 6.66 10." 14.1 161. 11.73 14.33 13.4? 15.31 ... 21.72 20.46 24.00 20.03 23.05 22.41 23-49 ... 5.43 18.13 11.20 24.17 24.31 23.11 25.71 26076 26.44 11.34 l3& 27.44 7.51 7.57 15.07 9.55 6.66 11.66 7.24 10.78 17.17 10.62 1973 2t.66 24.04 21.60 2204 16.4 10.1t 13.43 -85- Table 7 SECONDARY SCHOOL PARTICIPATION, BY REGION, 1970-1987 MATRICULA INICIALNO SEGUNDO GRAU E TAXA DE PARTICEPACAO, SEGUNDOAS REGIOES ANO REG.NORTr1 MATRICULAS 15-19 ANOS _____________________________________ REG. SUL 27,402 244,730 1975 ... 58,338 284,43 68,001 68,056 65,277 64,263 66,218 P7225 78,634 84,321 SEECIMEC * - dadoseuimadas * 394.361 422,108 * 443,341 * 468,607 * 4a8,809 * 513,217 * 629.420 * 545,904 * BRUTA ... 11.200/ ... 20.51% 13.95% 13.75% 14.72% 13.80% 13.64% * 3.10% 14.88% 15.45% 28.00% 28.39% 28.23% 25.72% 28.71% 25.11% 20.18% 27.44% 185,224 1,848,790 1975 ... 367.286 2,186,402 81,095 578,810 626,592 680.634 675,086 698,342 729,503 774,570 2,417.332 2,482,0e3 2,600.772 2,533,217 2,593,616 2,649,071 2,053,904 2.622,935 2,571 .37 ... 22.23% ... 35.52% 325,215 335.948 387,300 384,112 381,915 388.707 6. 78 442,413 1970 ... 571,589 1076 ... 1,064.350 2.968,251 1.489,246 1,487,490 1.458,527 1,470.290 1,460,263 1,493.980 1.577.384 1,606,593 3,439,640 3,527,511 3.485.927 3,498,028 3.488.318 3,834,592 3,867,809 3,528,788 ' ... 10.02% ... 16.96% 13.46% 13.54% 14.29% 18.16% 14.73% 14.67% 15.81% 16.87% 23.21% 23.32% 25.06% 2e.87% 26.03% 20.26% 27.49% 29.53% 1980 1981 1982 10983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1,131,185 1.112,48 1,104,610 1,062.482 1,062,583 1,064,814 1,142,226 1,168,038 1970 ... 174,464 1,110,382 ... 15.71% 1975 ... 368,677 1,336,920 ... 25.85% 407,061 484,543 480.243 484,762 490,127 491,617 505,177 496.847 1,359,380 1.360.070 1,326,682 1,326,128 1,319,771 1,319.288 1,293,07 11..123 44,796 333,369 ... 13.44% 102,560 432,169 ... 23.73% 106,093 178,776 183,977 188.670 200.487 206,325 214,011 219M580 634.779 661,236 554,503 672,071 580967 614,26. 608.743 626,885 359,731 347,981 344,444 348,840 347,599 346,411 367,900 369,390 1970 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 Dbe LIQUIDA ... 1975 :%nte: 106.087 111,379 125.166 119,741 126891 128,874 138,03 149.823 TAXADE PARTICIPACAO 1970 1980 t198 1982 1983 1984 198D 1986 1987 REG. CENTRO-OESTE ANOS 16-18 ,,, 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986e 1987 REG. SUtOESE POPULACAO 1970 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1988 1986 1987 REC.NORtED]S TOTAL ... 101,970 112,061 116.171 121n824 128,868 131.066 140,273 148,257 32.80% 31.54% 31.69% 30.37% 30.49% 30.13% 32.02% 33.10% 26.46% 25.59% 25.96% 26.15% 26.34% 26.26% 27.68% .WU% 19.07% 19.97% 20.77% 21.30% 21.84% 21.34% 23.04% 23.65% 43.30% 41.60% 41.84% 42.03% 41.90% 42.27% 44.21% 4S.53% 3e.57% 358.3% 35.20% 38.56% 37.14% 37.26% 39.07% 36.86% 30.98% 31.85% 33.18% 32.9b% 33.98% 33.59% 35.16% 35.03% TIhlAt AGE DISTBIION OP SECONDARYSCHOOLSTLUDEt, 1985 IRSOF AGE less more IhanI5 :TQTAI. 15 16 P3.Ai03eW@:$ .2P...0. 9 ::.304 B : :1P.4$s :q1Y- r 4.104 i ^d t4Ww Sou: 4"6324. ^3*,705 21J.003 103,45 10 19 than 19 TOTAL 4:34.972 344610 9.4,420 3.01 13 159,430 1?1043 324 180103 154#42 132,431 100,0 285864 1.321.94 90440 143:: 93#P zi4.,05S 135,394 124.221 9905. 257,25 674,609 ;tI~ sv :;.: 'a ,w "!448&7 ... 17 . '40 4: t@;;: .. #2*4X. XPo Siopse EsaUslca do EnsinoRegular de 2e. Grau. MEC 329 ,i632 ,§43S 14.357 13,20 4,.66 4,527 t,? 47, OQ,;7 35 Tuldo9: AGODISTRIBUTION OPSECONDARY SCHOOLSTUDENTS ASSHAREOPTOTAL ENROLLMENTS, 1985 YEARSOFAGE less than t_ 15 _______________ _ 15 16 tC>TOTALe 3,1Q. < iv 19.4S :.... ... .b0., ... 1604 1445 w. : ,0QO sse}. :i . .. t1r * .; .. ypr . 4O.4 *49:<z 17.6? *">; * >C:r 0.00 Z0 1.0 19 1.4 than 19 TOTAL 30.65 190.0 12.00 2.23 4.31 1P0P 17. 4.61 1-1 11,73 '17 .w 31.54 100,0 30.13 100 20.01 04 17.77 10.43 58.63 10 1." 11147 30.95 10.00 0.09 3 0.41 073 .0 1;1.23 14.43 Source: SleopseEslaUscado EnsinoRegulardo 2o.Grau.MEC 18 1.42 @#.#91@-42 14.85 902 0.@~~~ 0.02 .thyr more 17 4 " aDI -88- Table 1Q: AVERAGE AGE OF STUDENTS WHO ATTENDED AND DID NOT ATTEND SECONDARY SCHOOL IN 1982 MEDIADE DADEDOS ALUNOSQUE NAOINGRESSARAM (DFSISTENTES)E DOS QUE INGRESSARAM (INGRESSANTES) NO SEGUNDOGRAUEM 1982 POPULACAO:CONCLUIT DOPRIMO ORAU EM1981 URBANA RURAL TOTAL UwtESSAMT _DE8ITETE 21.5 NORTE OESSTENTM 18.0 WOMESSAE ... OESTEN8 ... MNQ8ANES 21.5 18.0 NSE 4.' 1,7j-'.,6- '- 2.4 19. ''1 20.5 17.7 19-.:9,§ 2-40.2 i1- 9.4 t1.9 19.3 16.5 ... , . NORDESTE NSE : - -rtill; 4o 30 -q.a=ml ---20,quait io.qttrtll SUDESTE NSE 17.9 .;2o.Q W 1*. qumil SUL NSE ' ~~4.-qai <; CENTRO-OESTE NSE .WK 18.3 16.3 1.3 2osqutll ,lo,: -',';w.d ^ 2 -0 17..2 o171 - - -- 1-7.613 -17.9; 19.7 19.9 ---. 16.5 . .17.3 . :19. -- - 17.8 21.0 tn.a. 17. 18.0 v- 16.4 18.1 16.3 2' 1,' ; '.S . ............ 9...... ,. 3 18.0 1-8.-s9 1;4 17.0 18.3.........;( 17.5 19.5 17.0 16.9 ..... 16.8 18.0 17.4 19.2 18.2tt 17.; 10.0 . 1.8.86.... 7.8 17~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.... 19.9 .1o.c~~~~~~uartiI PesquisaNacionalpor Amostrado Domicillos- 1982 .. ' 19.2 -. 9.2 191' 18.0 ._ 7 -1.5 .1 17.0 1;7.8 18; .19.2 - 205 17.0 17.7 16.9 191 fo 234 19.8 19.4 BRASIL NSE 17.8 20.2 9.7 ..... 1.7,4. 1. 1.1 18.5 17.9 19.1. 4 22.4 2 18.7 8.3 41 ''';-. 1.9 ' ;' "'..T' . 18.7.--18.4 ;1.7 174 ~~~~~~~~~~ 3o. 19.2 quartil 6 .... ... '.g'42 -89Table 11: PERCENTAGE OF SECONDARY STUDENTS EN'AOLLEDIN NIGHT CLASSES BY FAMILY INCOME QUARTILE AND LOCATION, 1982 PERCENTAGEMDASMATRICULASNO PERIODONOTURNO NO ENSINODE SEGUNDOGRAU RURAL URBANA NORTE NSE quarti -- v ,,. v=4G WtiI -. * 3 SUDESTE NSE G quartlt . qtit .20. quaitlt 1G.v .R 54.87 4'-8 .. 45''.60- - 49.60 52.08 3859.44 54..7 38.92 0 58.53 4362 50.86 54.39 56.74 70.21 57.22 48.08 62.57 48.2 '72.05. 75.46 7.17- 7- 69.69': 79.17 52.11.58.94 87 o-quartit - -77,87 57.00 Y4R.R-qRa:ri; 49.29........ . . .t 2o.quar~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~vd 68$-to. quartR 100.00 . CENTRO-OESTE NSE 59.19 So.~~~~~~~99 BRASIL NSE 4o.'qurti~ ,. 2o;.quartW Fonte: i quart . 62.92 80.95 57.72 57.11 e 49.53 t5 -.~~~~70.71: ;376.15: . 72.21 59.78 827569.7 55.91 59.30 56.13 46.3, 561 4.61- 72.01 61.64 70t.3 PesquisaNacionalpor Amostrade Domicilios- 1982 - :0067.99 52.33 ,- SUL - , ~~~81. 48 .... Y: 63.4 . %t 0 ,.= quanU ~ ... 67; e-t=v-i~ NORDESTE NSE #=~ 54.87 v-, -... sv ~1. quarts c.qua 3o squat - 4< 20. quari-, TOTAL -90- Table 12: PERCENTAGE OF SECONDARYSCHOOL STUDENTS ENROLLED IN NIGHT CLASSES BY TYPE OF SCHOOL: PUBLIC OR PRIVATE, 1982 PERCENTAGEM DE MATRICULAS NO PERIODO NOTURNO NAS ESCOLAS PUBLICAS DO ENSINO E PARTICULARES DE SEGUNDO URBANA TOTAL ... 57.61 NORTE GRAU PUBLICA (%) RURAL PARTICULAR (9) TOTAL URBANA RURAL 57.61 45.33 50.35 5995. 3.19-.. 68.49 - 45.33 ... NSE 50.35 4&qua4rtlI -59,95 oquartll 6.59" --. }--:i:quartll 7.09; lo. 1Wquartll .~~~o -.. : 4o.. -u..t3$quartil 50.10 45.22 68.28 45.88 57.21. -49.09, 56.83 31'.33: .64.00 77.40 .Ni SUL - 41.49 57.43 41.28 .. ' 47.065 S3.70 65.42 56.38 53.14 . 48.12 -48.02:. -66.85 .70.47. . - :.<:66.60...... 38.19 -..-. > -68.49 (:.42 : .n..+ 53.90 0.00: 50.50 -48.7 :32.54 63.43 6S.26. 48.68 72.94 68.46 57.57 80.11 58.10 48.1379.0 7.64 87.47 48.45'' :79.80 94.62 70.84 92.25 '76.81- `77.31 100.00. 79.74 88.72 61.48 54.13 60.26 49.76 65.54 51.79 55.10, 0.14 73.00 -74.4 58.36 7.59 -. ffquarti 1':quarOtq 48.42 ..,.. 53.15 55.94 . = 67.99: 45.94 -quartli 5 ;' SUDESTE NSE 4*.: quartil - Ao. 3:... .. 3O.quartli - .*66-59: 59.48 2oi quari. 1i.' ,-' , *-- 53.81 NORDESTE NSE ;~ ......... .. '--77.74 66.27 171.97 NSE 4.. , o.iatl qua* qui i.. '20. -:---. 7quartll2ii..: 10. quati: CENTRO-OESTE 100.00 .40.91 .7t . 70.59 70.7..1 66.67 78.48 69..81 .5479 `41-.85t.5 2.'4' 4.08 71.48 76.15- 60.81 69.74 53.01 67.30 44.21 48.75 44.34 3~42 1908 3Z2.2 NSE 4o.quartii .:- -- 3*qurt 2. quarti ! Fonte: 4. .uartll -... '. ~~~~56.11 511.3 $1.20 71.541:=--:7.14-- 82.75 81.91 01.50 - 85.01 .. 87.3o0 72.74 56.67 57.29 BRASIL NSE 54.42 X4.15 49-4oa. quarf 521.47 64.55 -*. quartll 62.87 867.82 20- -4. uartl 4.22 1, a - 1982 PeSqUisa Nacionalpor mostrade DomiciTios -6255- ... -65 782.78 77.07 8.5 100 00 81.50 84.22 57.24 54.13 64.01 54.67 49.30 63.74 68.93 60.62n' 43.66 74.33 81.19 75.53 . 82 70.00 -8.4$ 7260 44.02 74.t1 776 -9 73.97 8Z.87 t -91- Table 13: DISTRIBUTION OF SECONDARY SCHOOL AND TRAINIG ENROLLMENTS, BY TYPE OF SCHOOL, 1985 Numberof Students PublicSecondarySchools General - State a/ - Municipal Technical - Federal - Agricultural -.'ndustrlal - State - Municipal - SENAI(Secondary Schools only) - Other Federal PrivateSecondarySchools Generalb/ 2,011,910 1,780,155 132,333 67,657 13,568 54,089 . ... 7,543 24,222 1,004,228 1,004,228 Technical ENROLLMENTS TOTALSECONDARY Non-SchoolVocationalTraining SENAICourses SENACCourses SENARCourses OtherPrivateCourses 328,228 799,899 240,000 ... On TheJob TrainingPrograms Industry(SENAI)c/ Commerce(SENAC)d/ 339,181 56,368 TOTALPUBLICTRAININGENROLLMENTS Notes: Sources: 3,016,138 a/ b/ c/ d/ 1,763,676 Stateenrollmentsincludestate technicalschools,lor which disaggregatedenrollmentdataare not avallab PrivateTechnical As reportedby SENAI As reportedby SENAC data unavailable IBGEAnuarioEstatistico1985;MEC/SEECI DadosEstimativas1984-86, SENAIRelatorioAnual 1987 SENACRelatorioAnual 1985. -92- Table 14: ENROLLMENTS IN SENAI, BY PROGRAM, 1984-1987 1987 1986 1985 TOTAL 975,779 749,374 725,447 723,69 - SENAI Direct Training 509,278 431,789 386,266 443,02 (Secondary- HABIL) a/ (Post-Secondary - CQP) b/ 8,218 76,150 6,674 60,298 7,543 58,038 7,32 73,35 (Primary - APPREND) c/ 60,434 57,614 56,994 61,35 355,790 8,686 297,404 9,799 250,466 13,225 253,84 47,13 466,501 317,585 339,181 280,67 406,372 60,129 274,408 43,177 270,727 68,454 266,52 54,14 (Non-degree - SUPRIM) d/ (Other) - Training by Firms (In Exchangefor Exemption from Payroll Tax) (With SENAI Assistance) Notes: Source: a/ Fouryearprogram(Incl.oneyr.apprenticeship In anenterprise) certification. towards2Ograudegreeandtechnician b/ Technicaltrainingforstudents whohavealreadycompleted 2Ograu. Usuallya oneor twoyearparttimeprogram;includesapprenticeship in anenterprise. cl Basiceducation andlow-levelskilltrainingforyouthsaged15-18whohave notcompleted primaryschool.However, entrantsmusthavecompleted fouryearsorprimaryschool. foradults. d/ Short,low-levelskilltrainingcourses SENAIRelatorlo Anual,1987 1984 r93- Table 15: STRUCTURE OF SENAI PROGRAMS, 1987 1987 Age of Students Program Average Course Enrollments Length (Hours) (Nationwide) Direct SENAI Training Curso do Apprendizagem Industrial (CAI) 14-18 60,434 (6%) Treinamento Occupacional (TO) over 18 180 364,476 (37%) Habilitacao Profissional (HP) over 14 6,000 8,218 (0.8%) Curso de Qualificacao Profissional(CQP-IV) over 16 6,000 76,150 1,200-1,600 (8%) Training in Enterorises Treinamento Industrial (TI) TOTAL any 80-100 466,501 (48%) 975,779 (99.8%) Sources: SENAI National Headquartersfor enrollments; SENAISao Paulo for course types and averagehours -94- Table 16: ENROLLMENTS IN SENAC, BY PROGRAM, 1985 Number of Students Communications 105,632 Public Relations 25,672 Hygiene and Beauty 79,873 Hospitality 39,923 Maintenance 22,052 Stock Control 154 Administration& Management 49,616 Packaging & Shipping 13,519 447,197 Office Assistance Purchasing & -elling 53,400 Data Processing 27,974 Health 84,150 9,053 Tourism Artisanal Commerce 14,678 Unspecified 29,612 TOTAL Notes: Source: 1,002,505 * * - Includes SENAC's estimate of 146,238 'Enrollments"via Educational Television Programs. SENAC Relatorio Anual, 1985 -95- Table 17: SENAC: DJSIUTION OF STUDENTS BY AGE, GENDER AND LEVEL OF EDUCATIONCOMPLETED, 1986 Category Number ._________________________ .of Students _ u.ndov14:. .18-2-0 __ 43 12,. 0 8,~~~~~~~5111 21-24 2.279 . 33-40:-45 over 45- . . n>5132 849.: 2 62W , --. ^ .. ->f~~~~~7 . .... : sex F 27:50:; 08 ... Level of Education Comvleted Soure: SENAC. .Qsmeouno Source: SENAC, wQueme o Aluno do SENAC', 1987 do SE1 . 190 -63 -96- Table 18: TOTALPUBLIC EXPENDfTURE ON SECONDARYEDUCATION AND TRAINING, BY TYPEOF SCHOOL. 1985 Exoenditure billions millions CZ to of US$ lb FederalTechnical 4.7 119 Agicultural :. 1.5 37 . ladushial . --: . 3.2 82 Governments 54089 9,778 10,111 5, '90 24 25 13 386,266 7,543 9,152 7,864 23 -1,88 SENAC 2.0 51 1,002,505 Xa 1985level of expenditure,convertedto 1987Cruzados \b convertedat averageexchangeratefor 1987, US$1.00 CZ$39.28 Sources: IPEA,MEC,SENAC,SENAI,WorldBankReportsandAnnexT able20. 1,998 SENAI 3.5 HP Notes: 476 Cost rer Student CZ US$ 69,328 1,75 107,886 2,72 59,655 1,51 1,912,488 1,780,155 13Z333 State Muncicpal...... ; -. 18.7 18.0 .48 - 0.7 1985 Enrollments 67,657 13568 18 90 :- [ 51 -97- Takbl19 TOTALEDUCATION EXPENDrTURESAND 1980-1985, in millions of USS "XPENDMIURES PER PUPIL, 1960 1983 1985 191 183 232 ... 119 372 303 458 15 18 18 2,436 3,360 3,691 3,638 4,453 965 815 1:107 SecondaryEducation FederalGovernment of which Federal Technical Schools StateGovernments Municipalities Total Education FederalGovernment .,.195 StateGovernments Municipalities Expenditureper Studentat the SecondaryLevel FederalTechnicalSchools Expenditures Enrollments Per StudentSpending ... 65,543 ... ... 68,857 ... 119 67,657 11,759 StateGovernments Expenditures Enrollments (mlilons) PerStudentSpending 372 1.66 224 303 458 1.58 192 1.78 257 Municipalities Expenditures Enrollments Per StudentSpending 15 18 18 98,280 153 137,716 131 132,333 136 Sources: IPEA,'Educacaoe Cultura1987, and MEC/SEEC,BalancosGeraisda Uniao -98- Table 20: SENAI, SAO PAULO: EXPENDITUREBY PROGRAM, 1985 US dollafs CRUZADOS 336,887 2,088,702,375 CQP-IV - DAY 666,307,708 CQP-IV - NIGHT 2,755,010,083 107,469 444,356 HP 1",083,190,287 1,626,321 ADMINISTRATION /CAPITALINVESTMENT HP 16,839,022,211 2,715,971 HP - CQP-IV-DAY CQP-IV-NIGHT MATERIALS SECTOR' "PRODUCTION 7,637,303,268 1,231,823 40,710,564 6,566 1,267,946,943 204,508 327,089,888 52,756 1,495,653 6,282,302 38,950,273,244 TOTAL TREINAMENTOOCUPACIONAL (TO) TREINAMENTOINDUSTRIAL (Tc) 9,273,050,663 16,977,285,546 2,738,272 12,448,755,575 2,007,864 1,399,819,824 225,777 ADMINISTRATION /CAPITAL INVESTMENT - TO - TI 6,413,697,994 1,034,467 6,006,380 CURSODE APRENDIZAGEM 119,047,596,597 19,201,225 GENERALADMINISTRATION /CAPITALINVESTMENT 28,520,355,112 4,600,057 184,807,S10,648 29,807,663 TOTAL N2W Sowc: 37,239,558,939 Exchge mto-6,200 CZ/US$ FinancialStatementB- SENAI,Sao Paulo, 1985 -99- rable 21: SENAI, SAO PAULO: ESTIMATED TOTAL EXPENDrTUREBY PROGRAM, 1985 HABILPROFISSIONALla CQP IV \a ADMINISTRATION OTHERPROGRAMS TreinamentoIndustrial TreinamentoOccupacional CAI GeneralAdministration .otE.: ource: 17,284,415,564 2,787,809 4,826,835,469 778,522 16,839,022,211 38,950,273,244 18,862,453,569 18,377,105,370 119,047,596,597 28,520,355,112 184,807,510,648 \a includespro-rated materieland fproduction sectorf costs AnnexTable 20 2,715,971 6,282,302 3,042,331 2,964,049 19,201,225 4,600,057 29,807,663 -100- Table 22: SENAI, SAO PAULO: PROGRAM BUDGETS AND ESTIMATED UNIT COSTS, 1985 Course Exmenditure CRUZADOS US$ (billions) (millions) no.of Costper Student students CRUZADOS US$ CursodoApprendizagem Industrial(CAI) 141 23 21,665 6,495,410 1,04 Treinamento Occupacional 22 4 38,260 569,774 9 Habilitacao Profissional 31 5 2,889 Cursode Qualificacao Profissional (CQP-IV) 9 1 1,561 Trelnamento Industrial 22 4 122,441 Note: Todetermineprogramcosts,theadministrative/capital investment amounts weredividedona pro-ratabasisamongthedifferentprograms. Exchange rate= 6,200CZ/US$ Source: SENAI,SaoPaulo,1988andAnnexTable20 10,700,882 1,726 5,465,358 882 182,005 29 I 1938 , A . AMOSTRA ESTRATIPICADADE ALUNOSDA 3a.SERIE DO 20. aRAU E ESCOLASEM FORTALEZA,SALVADOR,SAOPAULO SEGUNDO0 TIPO DE CURSO.A REDEDE ENSINOE 0 TURNO.FUNDACAOCARLOSCHAGAS,1988. B CURITMBA, TIPQ REDE QE Q£ TUR FQO-TAL ZN4 N. t fcol a CURSO FN$INQ. Dlumon. 1 SALVAQOR No.4, -. Jw NQ.4. N0 F.io's A.' 33 1 38 SAOPAULO CURITIPA NQ. o 40 NO.40 *colas Alunoo Escdlas 1 22 NO.de 1 TOTAL No!.do No. oq NO,d0 Aun0o scas A 79 unos 4 172 Publko Notwmov ... 21 ... ... Dimo ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 21 ... TECHNICO Pdvado Notumo . ... 1 87 1 (Senal) (Sonai) ... ... ... 31 2 ... ... 118 . ... Dklmo 1 40 2 119 13 450 2 57 18 666 Nolumo 1 42 2 102 15 617 4 141 22 902 DLio 2 89 2 93 5 114 3 13 12 409 Notwnw 1 43 ... ... 3 61 ... ... 4 104 Dimn 1 30 1 38 3 91 1 32 6 191 GERA Pdvado Publbo. Notwmo ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... Dhnno ... .. ... ... 1 25 ... ... 1 25 Noturno ... ... ... ... ... ... 1 40 1 40 390 42 13 493 70 MAGI1STERIOQ Pilvado TOT-AL Noles: 7 298 11 A apllcacaolol na mesmaescolaullizadapelamanha 8 1467 2648 iahk24, MEAN STUDENTACHEVEMENT TESr SCORES,NOVEMBER1988 .FOTALEZA SALVADOQ SAOPAULO CURITIBA AVERAGE PORT MATH PORT MATH PORT MATH PORT MATH PORT MATH FeMdeal TcdhncaSdcoos DaySt 21.9 25.0 19.6 25.7 22.0 24.4 21.8 20.2 21.4 22.9 NightShMt 19.0 20.1 19.0 20.1 SENAI COMBINED AVERAGE 22.2 19.6 - - - - 17.4 13.1 15.4 11.9 16.9 12.8 14.9 15.1 13.5 O.6 10.1 16.1 12.9 10.9 10.3 18.6 14.5 13.0 10.3 18.0 16.0 13.3 11.1 17.9 14.5 12.5 10.4 15.2 12.5 17.4 24.9 15.6 32.1 23.8 - 23.7 - 10.9 15.5 16.0 12.7 23.6 - 28.2 - 20.3 19.9 20.9 21.9 2D.6 9.9 13.7 9.2 16.2 9.9 18.5 13.9 15.9 10.5 13.2 - 19.0 11.8 - - 19.0 11.8 15.4 17.4 11.2 17.2 11.1 14.2 Gen" Secondary Schols Publb DayShift NightShft Private Dayft NihtShlf 20.9 Teacwr Trakin (Magistero) Pubic Day Ouy 14.8 rlvate ygj; ource: Day SNft - - NIhtShift - - Nunmberof corre - 15.0 8.5 out of 35 Portuguese questions and 35 Mathematicsquestions Cados Chagas Foundation - , ovc I IREQUENCaAS PERCENTUAISDA VARIAVELSEXO EM UMA AMOSTRADE ALUNOSDA 3a. SERIE DO 20. (RAU DE ESCOLASDE PORTALEZA,SALVADOR,SAO P #LULO e CURITIBA,SEGUNDO 0 TIPO DE CURSO,A REDEDE ENSINO,0 TURNOE A CIDADE. PUNDACAOCARLOSCHIAGAS,1988. I, M I 7 ........ ... 7~ TEC]I IIQ ~ Wi~~~~~uolcl; ww DAlmo 73.3 26.7 ... 100.0 Notumo 81.0 19.0 ... 100.0 93.2 6.8 ... 100.0 Notum 23.0 50.4 76.9 49.3 0.1 0.3 100.0 100.0 DIvm 47.4 46.2 52.6 49.5 ... Noewo 4.3 100.0 100.0 PiMDoo SENAI eGER^ Pubico Pivado MAB IIOR DIiwn Np1£.mOo 7 JdcviiillS4o Ta41I PuIco DIvn 1.6 98.4 ... 100.0 flaado Dlurno 8.0 92.0 ... 100.0 Noturino 2.5 97.5 ... 100.0 Foflaleza 43.3 40.0 39.9 47.9 56.7 59.2 ... ... 1100.0 SalOvdor SaioPaulo Cuin¢^rlU 59.7 51.9 0.4 0.2 110.0O BO0.0 57.9 0.2 100.0 10IDADE$ TOTAL 41.9 100.0 I- Iabk 26 DISllUBUTMONOP SrUDEINrSAMPLE BYAGe, TYPE OP SCHOOLAND SKIF (DAYOR NIGHI). Novcmber 1988 FUEQUENCIAS PERCENTUAIS DA VARIVEL IDADEEM UMAAMOSTRA DEALUNOSDA 3a. SERIEDO 20. (UAU DE ESCOLASPDEPORTALEZA, SALVADOR. SAOPAULOB CURrIlBA.SEGUNDO 0 TUO DE CURSO, A REDE DRENSINO,0 TURNOB A CIDADE.FUNDACAO CARLOSCHAGAS. 1983. _7 t Pufibo 39 ii . 220 23 22 23OUYOuio1 8.7 Tol2+ Diuwo ... NOum. ... 1.2 ... 20.3 4.8 47.7 14.3 16.9 23.8 33.3 4.1 4.8 0.6 4.8 14.3 0.5 ... 100.0 100.0 0.l ... 21.2 16.9 24.6 3.S 4.2 1.7 21.2 0.9 100.0 41.4 12.4 30.6 24.6 13.4 5.9 12.9 2.9 10.5 1.2 6.9 3.0 12.7 ... 1.1 300.0 31.7 SENAI ... GQAL Pblaici Diwumo No*oAmD 0.2 3.5 ... 0.2 Puivado Diwnw ... ... 3.6 S2.1 65.9 27.3 8.1 4.0 1.9 1.7 0.7 0.6 100.0 4.4 17.6 4.4 1.1 1.1 ... 1.1 4.4 100.0 Piblico DiMh. ... ... 14.1 25.1 19.4 10.5 II.S 5.3 13.1 0.S 100.0 pgidvmo DiMd. NolUm. ... 4.0 24.0 32:5 36.3 25.0 24.0 8.0 100.0 7.5 0.0 5.0 ... 37.5 4.0 2.5 0.0 ... 30.0 ... 300.0 2.3 30.2 20.1 17.8 13.4 4.7 4.4 100.0 0.2 21.3 29.3 34.9 22.3 2.9 34.9 14.1 16.2 13.0 11.5 8.5 4.3 10.0 6.4 2.6 S.6 3.5 1.4 5.4 11.0 6.9 7.3 1.7 3.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.1 1.3 29.3 27.5 I5.4 8.7 6.0 3.5 7.4 0.8 100.0 JNuwd. Pcodbab Salvador SaoPaudo Quiliba TOTAL .. ... 0.3 ... 100.0 -105- Table 27: PERCENTAGE OF STUDENT SAMPLE ATIENDING NIGHT SCHOOL, BY TYPE OF SCHOOL, November 1988 FREQUENCIAS PERCENTUAIS DA VARIAVEL TURNO QUE CURSA 0 2o. GRAU EM UMA AMOSTRA DA ALUNOS DA 3a. SERIE DO 2o. GRAU DE ESCOLAS DE FORTALEZA, SALVADOR, SAO PAULO E CURTIDA SEGUNDO 0 TEPO DE CURSO, A REDE DE ENSINO, 0 TURNO E A CIDADE. FUNDACAO CARLOS CHAGAS, 1988 Redeis Tipo de Total Noaiuo Omissoes Diurno Curso Ensino PUBLICO Publico 86.0 14.0 ... 100.0 SENAI 96.6 3.4 ... 100.0 Publico 44.6 54.7 0.7 100.0 Privado 83.0 14.8 2.2 100.0 100.0 ... ... 100.0 38.5 61.5 ... 100.0 Fortalsza Salvador Sao Paulo 71.1 72.1 55.4 27.5 27.4 1.4 0.5 100.0 100.0 64.1 43.6 35.9 1.0 Curitiba 100.0 100.0 61.3 37.9 0.8 GERAL MAGTERIO Publico Priwado CIDADES TOTAL ... 100.0 Table 28: REASONS FOR ATTENDING PRIVATESCHOOL, November1988 PREQUENCIASPERCENTUAIS DA VARIAVEL RAZAO PARA FAZER 0 2o. GRAU EM ESCOLA PARTICULAR EM UMA AMOSTRA DE ALUNOS DA 3a. SERIE DO 2o. GRAU DE ESCOLAS DE FORTALEZA, SALVADOR, SAO PAULO E CURrrIBA, SEGUNDO 0 TIPO DE CURSO, A REDE DE ENSINO E 0 TURNO. PUNDACAO CARLOS CHAGAS, 1988. RAZAO PARA FAZER 0 2o. GRAU EM ESCOLA PARTICULAR NAOCURS FALTAM Ik4exISTEM>S AS ESCOLS NWVELOE FACLIADB .CDrLA VAGAIHIAS POtASPUPUBLICAS PUBDICAS DWICULDADEDE ORESSO ?PIVADA fSCUM rUBUCAS LONUEDO EX3OEM E4MEHOR NO ENSINO TIPO DE RE.DE DE, CURSO ENISINO TURNO PUJuCAS PluTODl CASA TRAALHO EXAME DE :PUPERIOR SELECAO PuDLCo OMESSES TOTAL TECNlCO SENAI - 35.6 3.4 5.9 ... ... 1.4 5.9 1.4 ... ... 3.3 1.1 ... 1.7 29.7 23.7 1.2 5.9 100.0 2.2 80.6 82.4 3.6 2.2 8.8 100.0 100.0 GERAL MRIVADODiwno IVoumO MAISTERIO PRIVADO Diumo Notume TOTAL ... ... 4.0 ... ... ... 96 ... 100.0 ... 10.0 17.5 7.5 ... .7.5 40 17.5 100.0 6.0 2.0 6.2 1.4 1.0 4.6 70.4 8.4 100.0 o Table 29: DISTRIBUTIONOF STUDENT SAMPLE, BY TYPE OF PROGRAM, Novemnber1988 PREQUENCIAS PERCENTUAISDA VARIAVEL TlO DE CURSO DE 2o. GRAU QUE ESTA CONCLUINDO EM UMA AMOSTRA DE ALUNOS DA 34. SERIE DO 2o.GRAU DE ESCOLASDE FORTALEZA, SALVADOR, SAO PAULO E CURITIBA, SEGUNDO0 TlO DE CURSO,A REDE DE ENSINO 0 TURNO E A CIDADE FUNDACAO CARLOS CHAGAS, 1938. Tipo0o Rodes d Cuno Ensio TECNIOO Publico TIPO DE CURSO DE 2o. GRAU ESTACONCLUINDO 4UMANIN CONTAI- MAGIS-TECtiCO QUTROMAISPE OMISSOES TOTAL _ DADES LIDADE TERIOINDUSTRIAL UM CURSO ERAL CIEC Tumno'. DiumO Nobuno SENAI ... ... ... ... ... ... 86.0 12.8 ... 4.8 ... ... 1.2 ... 100.0 100.0 90.7 5.9 0.8 2.6 100.0 ... ... 95.2 ... ... GERA Publico Ptiv.do MAGISMRIO Publico Privado Diwno Nohuno SS.0 76.8 7.2 2.2 7.5 0.8 4.8 1.6 17.1 5.0 1.8 0.2 6.3 5.9 0.3 0.2 ... 1.3 100.0 100.0 Diwao Noftuoo 81.1 81.3 0.7 7.8 1.1 1.7 ... 1.4 1.1 ... 2.2 5.2 7.7 0.2 2.2 1.2 4.4 100.0 100.0 ... ... ... 0.5 97.4 ... : 2.1 ... 100.0 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 100.0 100.0 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 100.0 100.0 51.3 67.7 53.0 0.3 0.5 4.2 ... 10.1 15.8 9.7 17.5 15.4 18.1 12.3 6.1 20.3 3.0 6.7 6.3 5.3 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.8 ... 1.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 58.2 0.3 1.5 4.4 0.4 ... 0.4 100.0 55.9 2.8 2.4 5.1 15.7 11.0 5.8 0.5 0.8 100.0 luno annie Notwo *1 CIDADES Fortaleza Salvador SaoPaulo Curitiba TOTAL 0 0.5 7.0 _ TaI a 30; DISTRIBUTIONOF STUDENI SAMPLE, BY PATHER'S LEVEL OF EDUCATION,November1988 PREQUENCIASPERCENTUAISDA VARIAVELNIVEL DE INSTRUCAODO PAI EM UMA AMOSIRA DE ALUNOS DA 3.. SERIE DO 2o. ORAU DE ESCOLAS DEIFORTALEZA,SALVADOR, SAO PAULO I CURITIBA,SEGUNDO0 TIPO DlRCURSO, A ReDE DE ENSINO0 TURNO E A CIDADE PUNDACAO CARWS CHAGAS, 1988. DIEINSTRUCAO DP ...+*.. . . #. \{ .VL U . . . Mr;~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ _____. .S NPI3$UM ~~~~~~~~~~~HC~Q_ . . "ii. SgMA OUThAS . __ lutERIOI ¢ttwr° : amrLgro >:j(: 1WFOL! TECNICAS3icO!Tm c4mLsr TOTAL ThCN Public. Di;D Mlabl SENAI 5.2 13.4 23.8 9.9 ... 14.S 14.3 26.7 28.6 14.3 ... ... 0.6 ... 1.7 4.5 1.2 9.5 26.7 4.8 100.0 100.0 6.8 28.5 16.9 5.1 9.3 ... 1.1 S. 5.9 20.3 100.0 3.3 21.2 13.4 6.0 0.9 0.3 3.0 1.4 1.3 3.2 2.2 12.5 5.3 11.6 8.2 2.1 31.1 36.3 46.8 100.0 100.0I. reivado Dhae Nauu 2.3 6.6 13.7 S.S 13.3. 15.4 3.6 8.8 15.2 13.2 0.2. ... 0.5 ... 4.7 2.2 5.9 5.s 42.2 42.9 300.0 publice D 6.8 40.3 19.9 6.3 8.4 ... 1.6 2.1 3.7 30.5 300.0 4.0 SS.0 12.0 10.0 4.0 28.0 5.0 4.0 ... ... 5.0 36.0 7.5 200.0 5.0 ... ... ... 5.0 10.. 9.2 6.0 4.9 33.9 27.9 37.6 30.3 12.1 17.9 18.7 16.2 3.7 6.9 5.5 5.7 14.8 12.6 9.9 10.8 ... 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 1.0 1.8 0.8 2.3 3.1 2.7 2.2 4.0 2.3 3.5 4.1 18.5 18.5 13.8 24.3 100.0 300.0 I00.0 100.0 6 .j 34.5 17.4 5.6 313.0 0.4 1.3 2.6 3.5 17.0 300.0 'ablioe Doiuo Na*ow i. Plvade DiemO Nton.. 4.0 12.5 ' 5.S 100.0 100.0 CIDADES PbFuoa Salvado S" Paulo Cwilib TOTAL DISTRIRUTION OP STUDENT SAMPLE. BY MartlER'S LEVEL OF EDUCATION, November 1988 FREQUENCIAS PERCENTUAIS DA VARIAVELNIVELDE INSTRUCAO DA MAE EM UMA AMOSFRADEALUNOSDA 3a. SERIEDO2.. GEAUDE ESCOLAS DEPORTALEZA, SALVADOR. SAOPAULOB CURMBA,SEGUNDO 0 TPO DECURSO,A REDEDE ENSINO 0 TURNOE A CIDADE PUNDACAO CARLOSCHAGAS,19U. MS = Cuip :qgIw~ Tuquii ;7 PIUP Publi.o Di..oo TtxiN WUMQQ J*ro TPCrNCASR.Mrnu UIMFLE TOTAL 3.S 9.5 32.6 33.3 17.4 9.5 7.6 4.1 22.1 28.6 0.6 4.1 ... ... 0.6 1.2 4.8 14.5 4.8 100.0 100.0 6.1 23.0 22.9 S.9 18.6 ... 0.8 4.2 2.5 10.2 100.0 5.0 45.6 5.0 5.8 0.3 ... 1.1 45.9 12.6 7.9 0.5 35.3 21.9 22.2 ... 0.8 0.6 0.3 7.5 1.9 100.0 100.0 Diuwe Noaa 2.3 6.6 17.3 S.S 13.S 16.5 6.2 9.9 27.5 28.6 ... ... 0.2 2.8 1.1 5.5 ... 5.S 24.2 26.4 100.0 100.0 Di.. 5.2 46.6 22.0 6.3 12.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.6 4.2 100.0 12.0 SO.0 16.0 20.0 20.0 2.5 16.0 10.0 5.0 ... ... ... ... 16.0 2.5 4.0 2.5 16.0 7.5 100.0 100.0 6.4 10.0 9.0 5.9 33.3 33.6 40.0 34.7 12.1 IS.I 22.6 20.7 S.0 6.4 6.3 5.3 21.5 18.5 12.1 16.2 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.2 ... 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 1.8 1.5 1.6 4.0 1.8 0.7 3.4 10.7 12.1 2.4 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 130.0 3.3 37.9 20.1 6.0 14.1 0.2 0.2 I.5 1.7 9.3 100.0 JoaU. SENAI Publico Diwo NoaaS Pdvad WMn w9;MI1PiQjP MAOlrEl Pulblic Privado Diwoo Noiwa. Pogbki Salvador SaoPaulo Curitbe TOTAL ... Tae32 . PERCENTAGE OF STUDENT SAMPLE WHO WORK AND HOURS WORKED, Novembeer f989 FREQUENCIASPERCENTUAMSDA VARJAVEL HORASDE TRABALHOPOR SEMANA ATUALMENTE, EM UMA AMOSTRA DE ALUNOS DA 3a. SERIE DO 2o. ORAU DE ESCOLAS DE FORTALEZA, SALVADOR, SAO PAULO E CURIITIBA,SEGUNDO 0 TIPO DE CURSO, A REDEDE ENSINO 0 TURNO E A CIDADE FUNDACAO CARLOS CHfAGAS,1988. . HORAS DE TRABALHOPOR SEMANA, ATULMENTE Tipodo Red de NAO . 41 E CWS9. Ensao Tumno TRABALUO IAIO 11A20 21A30 31 A40 MAIS OMISSOESTOTAL TECPNICO Publico DiUmn 76.7 3.5 12.8 3.5 2.3 ... 1.2 100.0 Nohan 23.8 ... 9.5 33.3 14.3 19.0 0.1 100.0 SENAI 66.1 5.1 3.4 1.7 12.7 6.8 4.2 100.0 GERAL P'ubico Diumeo NotUwO 77.0 5.9 4.1 17.3 7.4 10.5 2.4 1.8 1.5 11.6 1.8 100.0 27.2 31.0 0.6 100.0 Diume Noturmo 84.4 80.2 2.8 4.4 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.I 5.5 3.3 31. 4.4 1.2 5.5 100.0 100.0 DiJaW 57.1 7.3 18.8 9.4 6.3 0.5 0.6 100.0 52.0 22.5 12.0 8.0 24.0 4.0 7.5 ... 15.0 17.5 ... 100.0 20.0 17.5 ... 100.0 71.1 72.3 45.7 56.6 3.7 5.1 8.5 5.3 7.4 2.6 3.8 6.7 3.4 4.1 10.0 6.9 4.4 6.4 16.0 12.6 9.4 8.7 14.1 12.4 0.6 0.8 1.9 0.5 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 54.5 6.9 4.6 7.8 12.5 12.5 1.2 100.0 Privado Publico Puivado Dianne Nonune CIDADES Fotaloza Salvador SaoPaulo Curitiba TOTAL -111- Table 33: DISTRIBUlION OF STUDENT SAMPLE, BY FATHER'S OCCUPATION, November 1988 FREQUENCIAS PERCENTUAS DA VARIAVEL OCUPACAO DO PAI EM UMA AMOSRA DE ALUNOS DA 3a. SERIE Do 2o. GRAU DE ESCOLAS DE FORTALEZA, SALVADOR, SAO PAULO E CURiTBA, SEGUNDO 0 TEPODE CURSO, A REDE DE ENSINO E 0 TURNO E A CIDADE. FUNDACAO CARLOS CHAGAS, 1988 OCUPACAO DO PAI - . ~~~~PRO1PISSOB$ SUPWlOR B Mf~BA TIPO REDE -NDUSTEAI9I TB4NIAS DIE DIE DENIVEL E 0UAS B CURSO ENSINO TURNO l Otl ,,. w 0 TECHNICO Publico Diurno Noturno ADMUnS- DObRMSA. FORC$ E TRACAO -Wr4coAs ARMADAS PumchA OMISSOBS.TOTAL 32.6 14.3 51.2 71.4 2.9 4.8 1.2 ... 9.9 9.5 2.2 ... 100.0 100.0 32.2 48.3 5.9 2.5 7.6 3.5 100.0 Diurno Noturno 23.4 19.1 55.9 58.2 1.5 5.8 3.8 1.3 9.0 7.8 6.4 7.9 100.0 100.0 Diumno Notuno 37.7 35.2 48.1 52.7 2.8 1.1 2.8 5.9 4.4 2.7 6.6 100.0 100.0 Diurno 23.6 53.4 3.7 1.0 12.6 5.8 100.0 Diurno 8.0 88.0 ... ... ... 4.0 100.0 Notumo 7.5 52.5 5.0 2.5 10.0 22.5 100.0 CIDADES Fortaleza Salvador Sao Paulo Curitiba 24.8 28.7 21.1 34.7 46.3 49.2 60.1 48.9 8.4 4.4 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.6 1.5 2.4 15.8 8.5 7.4 5.3 1.7 5.6 7.2 5.7 MO.0 iW.0 100.0 100.0 TOTAL 25.2 54.9 3.7 2.2 8.1 6.0 100.0 SENAI GERATL Publico Privado MAGISTERIO Publico Privado Table 34: DISTRIBUTIONOF STUDENT SAMPLE BY FAMILY INCOME LEVEL (percent), November 1988 FREQUENCIAS PERCENTUAIS DA VARIAVEL RENDA TOTAL MENSAL DA FAMILIA (EM SALARIOS MINIMOS) EM UMA AMOSTRA DE ALUNOS DA 3a. SERIE DO 2o. GRAU DE ESCOLAS DE FORTALEZA, SALVADOR, SAO PAULO E CURITIBA, SEGUNDO 0 TIPO DE CURSO, A REDE DE ENSINO 0 TURNO E A CIDADE FUNDACAO CARLOS CHAGAS, 1988. Tipode Redq(t Curso Ensino TU_no ATEt RENDA TOTAL MENSAL DA FAMILIA (EM SALARIOS MINIMOS) A.ClMA 1.6A1 2A2.3 2.3A2.0 2.0A3.3 3.3A6.5 65 A13 DE 13 OMISSOES 1A. TOTAL TECNICQ Publico Dlurno Notumo 2.9 3.5 2.3 5.2 29.1 36.6 16.9 0.6 9.5 9.5 1.2 4.8 1.7 9.5 ... 14.3 28.6 23.8 ... ... 100.0 SENAI 2.5 1.7 ... 3.4 1.7 9.3 22.9 28.0 28.8 1.7 100.0 Publico DIurno 3.6 5.0 Notufno 2.4 3.0 2.3 2.9 3.9 2.3 5.6 2.8 13.7 10.2 23.7 26.5 24.0 29.9 14.1 15.5 4.2 4.4 100.0 100.0 Dlurno 1.4 2.1 1.2 0.7 1.2 6.2 12.3 27.0 46.0 Noturno 1.9 100.0 ... ... 3.3 ... ... 2.2 12.1 26.4 49.5 6.6 100.0 Dfurno 5.8 5.2 3.1 3.7 7.3 15.7 25.7 15.2 11.0 7.3 100.0 Diurno ... ... ... 2.5 ... 2.5 8.0 12.5 24.0 40.0 32.0 15.0 36.0 20.0 ... ... ... 2.5 ... Noturno 5.0 * 100.0 100.0 8.7 6.4 1.2 1.0 12.4 5.6 1.4 2.0 5.0 4.1 1.2 2.4 4.0 4.1 1.9 1.8 3.4 5.1 3.0 2.6 15.4 11.0 9.1 9.9 19.5 14.9 24.8 27.2 17.8 21.0 31.2 24.3 12.4 18.2 22.8 26.6 1.3 9.5 3.4 2.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 GERAL Prlvado 100.0 _ MAGISTERIO Pubdco Prlvddo CIDADES ForWeza Salvador Sao Paulo Curitiba -113- te 3: AVERAGE CLASS SIZE BY TYPE OF SCHOOL AND PROGRAM. November 1988 FREQUENCIAS PERCENTUALS DO NU MRO blEDI0 DE ALUNOS POR TURMA EM CADA SERIE DO 2o. GRAU EM UMA AMOSTRA DE ESCOLAS, SEGUNDO 0 TIPODE CURSO, REDE DE ENSINrO E CMADE, FUNDACAO CARLOS CHAGAS, 1988. NUMER- -- DIO DR ALUNOSPOR TURMA EM CADA : ':DO .'. G'.U mou. MASSDE :___________- __; ___ -__MIEOS 20f'A30, MAZSDE ;3A40 M=D 40OASW MAISDE SO OMISSOES TOTAL llPODE 9M ... 83.3 ... ... 3.6 28.6 58.2 PUBLICO ... 8.5 66.0 19.1 PRIVADO ... ... 42.1 42.1 100.0 ... ... ... TECNICO 16.7 GERAL MAGlSTERIO 42.9 ... 29.1 14.3 ... 100.0 7.3 14.3 1.8 100.0 100.0 4.3 2.1 ... ... R^,EDED&ENSINO SiNAI Foudazm Salvador Sio Pauo Cmibin ... ... ... ... . 8.3 9.3 ... 1.5 5.9 15.8 ... 100.0 ... 100.0 ... 100.0 28.6 16.7 ... ... 100.0 100.0 2.3 8.3 2.3 ... 100.0 50.0 42.9 50.0 16.3 33.3 5SL 25.0 7.4 1.5 100.0 28.6 333 69.3 100.0 -114- Table 36:AVERAGE HOURS OF PORTUGUESEINSIRUCTION PER WEEK, BY TYPE OF SCHOOL, November 1988 FREQUENCIASPERCENTUAISDO NUMERO MEDIO DE AULASMHORA DE PORTUGUES POR SEMANA NAS SERIES DO 2o GRAU EM UMA AMOSrRA DE ESCOLAS, SEGUNDO O TIPO DE CURSO, REDE DE ENSINO E CIDADE, FUNDACAOCARLOS CHAGAS, 1988. NUMERO MEDIO DE AULAS/HORADE PORTUGUES PORSEMANANASSERIS DO 2o. GRAU 1ENOSDE 3 AULAMS ISOD S M MAI DE ADE HORA 3A4 4AS 5 OMISSOES TOTAL TWO DE TECNICO 16.7 66.7 ... 16.7 aJRSO GERAL ... 45.5 43.6 7.3 3.6 100. 100. MAGISTERIO ... 57.1 14.3 28.6 ... 100. 2.1 5.3 100. 100. ... RED-ED PUBLICO 2.1 53.2 34.0 8.S ENSk PRIVADO ... 36.8 47.4 10.S SENAI ... ... ... 100.0 ... FortaMza Salvador Sao Paulo ... 14.3 50.0 ... 8.3 58.1 33.3 42.9 33.3 34.9 41.7 28.6 16.7 4.7 16.7 14.3 .. 2.3 ... 100. ... 1L.S 48.S 36.8 10.3 2.9 100.0 C:IRES Curitiba TOTAL 100. 100. 100. 100. -115- rable37: AVERAGE HOURS OF MATH INSTRUCTIONPER WEEK, BY TYPE OF SCHOOL,November1988 DISTRIBUICAOPERCENTUALDE ESCOLASDA AMOSTRAPOR CLASSE W) NUMERO MEDIO DE HORAS/AULADE MATEMATICAPOR SEMANA MAL,SERIESDO 2o. GRAU, SEGUNDO 0 TIPO DE CURSO, 'EDE DE ENSINO E CMADE. FUNDACAOCARLOS CHAGAS, 1988. NUMERO MEDIO DE AULAS/HORADE MATEMATICA POR SEMANA NAS SERIE DO 2o. GRAU MAISDE 3 AULAS/ MAISDE MAISDE MAISDE 3A4 _fORA TIPO DE TECNICO CURSO GERAL MAGISTERIO REDE DE ENSINO PUBLICO PRIVADO SENAI RAD _ES Fortaleza Salvador Sao Paulo Curitiba TOTAL . 4A5 S ... 83.3 1.8 67.3 ... 71.4 ... 80.9 42.1 47.4 5.3 ... OWSSOES TOTA 16.7 ... 100.0 21.8 7.3 1.8 100.0 14.3 14.3 ... 100.0 8.5 8.5 5.3 2.1 ... 100.0 100.0 100.0 ... 100.0 28.6 ... 100.0 100.0 ... ... ... 42.9 28.6 ... 100.0 69.8 ... ... 2.3 20.9 4.7 2.3 100.0 ... 66.7 16.7 16.7 ... 100.0 1.S 69.1 19.1 8.8 1.5 100.0 ... ... Table 38: TUITION (IN MINIMUM SALARES) BY TYPE OP SCHOOLAND PROGRAM,November 1988 FREQUENCIAS PERCENTUAIS DAS MENSAUIDADES CORRADAS NA ESCOLADO 2O.GRAU EM UMAAMOSTRADE ESCOLAS.SEGUNDO 0 TIPODECURSO.AEDEDE ENSINOE CIDADE FUNDACAO CARLOSCHAGAS,1985. MENSALIDADE DA EXCOLADE 2o GRAU(EMSALARIOS MINIMOS) .AOCOO. ME,O. MASDE MAiS DE M__S DE MSSD MASDE MOES 0.16-0.320.32-0.650.65-0.970.97-1.62 1.6? TIPO DE CURSO TECNICO GERAL MAGISTERIO REDE D ENSINO CIDADES TOTAL 07.3 6 71.4 16.7 ... ... ... 5.5 14.3 ... 5.5 ... ... '14.5 ... ... 5.5 14.3 ... ... ... ... 1.8 ... 100.0 100.0 100.0 PUBLICO PRIVADO SENAI 91.4 10.5 100.0 2.1 ... ... ... 21.1 ... 2.1 10.5 ... 42.1 ... 2.1 15.8 ... ... ... 2.1 ... ... 100.0 100.0 100.0 Forlaleza Sao PauLo 57.1 66.7 72.1 Curiliba 66.7 ... ... ... 8.3 ... ... 7.0 8.3 14.3 ... 4.7 ... 28.6 16.7 7.0 16.7 ... 16.7 7.0 ... ... ... 2.3 ... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 69.1 1.5 5.9 4.4 11.8 5.9 1.5 100.0 Salvador TOTAL 83.3 OMISSOES ... ... ... ... ... ... -1.17- 3abi@39: AVMtAGE TEACl SALARYBY TYPE OF SCHOOLAND PROGRAM, Navembe 1988. FREQUENCIAS PERCENTUAIS VE SALARIO MEMO MENSALDOS PROFESSORES DAESCOLA DE20. GRAUEMUMAAMOSTR4OE ESCOLAS, SEGUNDO 0 TIPO DE CURSO,REDEDE ENSINOE CIDADE.FUNDACAO CARLOSCHAGAS,1988. SALARIOMEDlOMENSALDOS PROFSORES OA ESCOLA. O2c. GRAU(EMSALARIOSMINIMOS) MENO MAISDE MAIS0E MAIS 016 MAIS0E DE 1 lA2 2A 4 4A a8 OMSSOES 33PODE CURSO TECNICO GERAL MAGISTERIO ... _. .. 10.9 60.0 28.6 28.6 16:4 14.3 100.0 5.5 14.3 ... 7.3 14.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 10.5 15.8 66.0 15.8 10.6 26.3 10.6 21.1 2.1 21.1 100.0 100.0 ... ... ... 100.0 100.0 100.0 14.3 33.3 42.9 ... 16.7 ... ... 28.6 16.7 9.3 8.3 8.3 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 ... 11.8 7.4 100.0 ... ... ... BjgDLE PUBLICO ... ENSINO PRIVAOO ... SENAI ... C1OA2E Fortaleza Salvador Sao Pauo Curitiba TOTAL TOTAL ... ,. 62.8 9.3 41.7 25.0 14.3 33.3 1 1.6 16.7 51.5 14.7 14.7 ... 7.0 -1 18Table 40: PRIVATE SECONDARY SCHOOL PARTICIPATION, BY FAMILY INCOME QUARTILE AND REGION, 1982 PARTICIPACAO DA ESCOLA PARTICULAR NO ENSINO DE SEGUNDO GRAU URBANA NORTE 22.28 NSE -40. qua3i---5 - 22.28 34 - .. 39.90 45.95 40.46 51.15 -31.38 34.54 -- 33.48 72.33 42.12 41.11 34.90- 52z21 31.98 35.36 34.25 49.45 32.66 48.86 53.91 41.90 29.38 27.2036.40 53.73 41.10 35.51 31.86 38.22 31.41 37.19 43.30 28.67 0.00 33.31 41.04 17.33 -23.79 0.00 33.31 21.09 32.76 48.74 20.49 18.41 21.89 50.09 .00 15.62 21.21 48.77 19.93 18.15 21.54 43.52 35.88 43.02 50.99 34.21 48.45 37.23 50.92 34.42 31.0: 27.78 30.89 -0.00: NORDESTE NSE 40. quart3o.quartl -2o.quartil 10.quartil TOTAL 14.71 12.25 - 2o.-quartll -1. quartil ... 33,54--- -3*. quart- : RURAL SUDESTE rv12.25 14.71 0.00 NSE 40. quard -3-. -quart -41.55 20. quarlo1,quartil SUL NSE 40. quartil. -43.85 3o. quartl - -28.15 2*. quartlt -- - -- - - -o10.quartilCENTRO-OESTE NSE 40. quartil 3o. quartil -20.quarAi 1.-- quatil- BRASIL NSE 40. quartiSo. quarti t20.quarl: Fonts: - 37.6327.54 -- ; quartll 1*. > -27.02 -30.48 PesquisaNacionalpor Amcstra de Domicilios- 1982 31.14 0.00 28.78 -119- Table 41: AVERAGE MONTHLY PRIVATE SECONDARY SCHOOL TUMON PAID BY FAMILY INCOME QUARTILE AND REGION (TmUSS), 1982 MEDIADA MENSALIMADENAREDEPAP.TICULAR DE ENSINO DE SEGUNDOGRAU (am US$) URBANA NORTE RURAL 30.98 ... TOTAL 30 98 NSE 37.21 40, quall ..:.-=;3o. quarti. .:2o. quat-l ; ~~1.js - 0quartill . 14.81' .- NORDESTE NSE -40 quartil. 3D,quartil 2o.quartil 10. quartil SUDESTE NSE 40.quartil 3o. quarit 2o.quartil 1o.quartil Fonte: ... 37.21 ... 18.41 ... 14.81 -.X. .--.... 24.54 12.35 23.29 36.65 13.16 8.40 4.42 21.75 10.86 7.67 6.94 35.75 12.98 8.30 6.00 38.45 16.41 37.95 45.16 21.91 16.32 9.35 SUL NSE 4o.quartll 3-. quartl2o. ^quartlit 1. o.quartil: CENTRO-OESTE NSE :o4.quartil. 30.4quartia 20. quartil lo.quaftil . .18.41 21.30 -17.67 12.12 8.27 44.88 21.81 15.66 8.81 30.31 16.41 28.55 34.85 17.23 17.65 21.73 15.11 14.34 34.32 16.59 16.54 38.69 23.45 38.23 24.81 46.39 46.88 23.34 14.47. 9.81 . ... 23.34 21.20 1.I.. 23.22 15.04 13.99 BRASIL 34.63 15.04 NSE 4*.quartil 42.46 21.77 3o.quartil 19.43 14.61 Zo.quartil 1.36 10.94 lo. quartit 6.4g 8.02 PesquisaNacionalpor Amostrade Domicillos- 1982 33.58 . 41.96 19.07 12.13 7.36 -120- Tab1E42a AVERAGE PRIVATE MONTHLY SECONDARY SCHOOL TUMTIONRATES IN THREE STATES: SAO PAULO, CEARA AND PARANA, 1987 AND 1988 In ruzados in USdollars TYPE OF SCHOOL Minimum Maximum Mean Minimum Maximum Mean Sao Paulo (Se2tember 19871 n) General Education 1 43.041 3.233 0.03 863 6s 926 926 7.630 9,219 4,267 5078 9 9 71 86 40 47 lst and 2nd Years 3rd Year 350 708 2,807 2,807 1,470 1,595 3 7 26 26 14 1stand 2nd Years 3rd Year 350 708 7,630 9.219 3,347 4,015 3 7 71 86 31 37 871 38,276 13,840 2 73 26 Ceara (March 19881 z) General Secondary Fortaleza only 1st and 2nd Years 3rd Year Interior only 15 Total State Puana (November 1988) General Education Sources: i 1) Data from commissao de Encargos Sociais of the Conselho Estadual da Educacao for September 19P7. Exchange rate used USS1.00 a Cz 49.87 2) Data from the Conselho Estadual de Educacao of Ceara, March 1988. Exchange rate used USS1.00 - Cz 107.49 3) Data from the Conselho Estadual de Educacao of Parana, November 1988. Exchange rate used US$1.00 a Cz 526.15 -121Table 43: AVERAGE FAMILY PER CAPITA INCOME OF STUDENTS ATTENDING PRIVATE SECONDARY SCHOOLS (mnUS$), 1982 MEDIADA RENDAFAMLIARPER CAP1TADOSALUNOSDA REDE PARTICULAR DO ENSINO DE SEGUNDO GRAU (am USS) URBANA NORTE RURAL 189.58 TOTAL ... 189.58 NSE -o. 0 0 0- ^: -Z.;uartti :: - .242.30 ...- Wo.quaglh. -20. quartll: 5. 0-: :- ;- bx . ::63.43 NORDESTE NSE 4-0.:-4 --luartil - o. quaril -2o. quati 10-.quartil . : . 3o.~~quartII~~ i CENTRO-OESTE NSE 4o.quart# . ... ... ~107.78: 80.80 :-8 ... MM Pesqusa into: 124.66 198.89 60.97 38.50 31.09 216.81 106.19 214.36 26.26 906.62982 55.23 22.45 Utit 171.000: 267.27 90.80 57.74 23.21 : 0 2398 - 93.07 251.10 8293 4.842143.72 175.39 239.21 130.33 191.61 - :248.01 ; -- 236.23 ~~305.521513.8 .... 199.63 NacionalporA :.3.43 121-.95 48.80 52.7433.99 -203.7 . 7.09 BRASIL NSE : 69.20 206.06 - - 242.30 61.98 -36.14 28.56 -. SUDESTE NSE -a. q irtl SUL NSE - : .a-ti So. qui 2OquartI . ; - -::: 130.87 i2: -q-u-rtilo. qur; ,. ' 4809- - 88.07 - 587 PesquisaNadlona por Amostrado Domicilios- 1982 1.. 07.78 .-: 5,...4.1 193.79 9 -122Table 44: TUITION AS A PERCENTAGL 'FAMILY PER CAPITA INCOME, BY FAMIY INCOME QUARTIV 1 AND LOCATION, 1982 A RELACAO PERCENTAGEM DA MENSALIDADE ESCOLAR EM RENDA FAMILIARMEDIA PER CAPirA RURAL URBANA (Va) (%) 40. quartll '=ul - i ' 40. quartl 3o. quaili- . . .- . Io. 2quartli : - SUDESTE NSE 40. quartil 3o qWqLarti quartil -;:-20>. -o. quar$t SUL NSE - -- -. O. quartiil - - : .l -- . . -o.--.Zquarti2 l. - ^i 1.owquar ii 2'. q.uarti '20. quartll BRASIL NSE . quarti -: ; 18.75 17.85 18.68 17.99 1784 -21.23 23.24 16.64. 22.25 14.54 20.42 21.56 17.73 15.45 17.70 1..3 . . - .. - : 14.90 1.-4 1 -2.39' §.48: 19 A '20.00 3381 20. .. . 16.18 17.99 16.17 . 16.7924.02- -:17.05 . 27.12-: : 17.63 . 20.21. 31i77 -79 .21.29 12.46 17.99--. .:. . -: . :34.49 :7.96 . . - 13.83 15-.7 15.34 .. :.82- 21.6' ... .•7-< ~~26.8 1- .4 2o.quartll : ...- 17.35 So. qui 22.78 23. -- . .. 14.71 CENTRO-OESTE NSE 40.. quarA Fonte: .. : 16.83 .24.18 29.55 -. 41.65 - . .. quartWi .. .1 22.78 23.35 0.0'.' NORDESTE NSE 1O.quartl 16.34 15.38 .. 3o. quartiil 20; quarti -' TOTAL (%) ... 16.34 NORTE NSE , -, 17.33 17.08 - .23.07 27.41 24.03 1 quarill Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicillos - 1982 14. 2.;6 2.0 -;..: 1.5 ~~~~19.29" 24.08 2.3 25 04" 224. .4 -123- Table 45: CHARACTERISCS OF A SAMPLE OF TWELVE PRIVATE SECONDARY SCHOOLS FORTALEZA, CEARA, January1989 mean .... Grou ..Group2 Grup 3 Total Averagenumberof Studentsperclass 45.2 39.13 37.38 41.68 Numberof hours Instruction perweek 25.5 25.17 22.92 24.53 Teachersalary per hour 2.34 1.75 1.38 1.82 44.56 28.52 21.64 31.57 Tuition Notes; ource: Thetwelveschoolswerebrokenintothreegroupsof fourschoolseach,based upontuitionlevels.Group1 hadtuitionof NCZ$35andabove,Group2 had tultionof NCZ$25-35andGroup3 hadtuitionbelowNCZ$25. Thesample represents approximately 15%of thetotalnumberof privateschools InFortaleza. Surveyconducted bytheAssociation of PrivateSchools, Ceara,January1989 -114- Table 46: SECONDARY SCHOOL PARTICIPATION, BY GENDER AND FAMILY INCOME QUARTILE, 1982 PARTICIPACAONO ENSINODE SEGUNDOQRAUSEGUNDO0 SEXO POPULACAO: 25 A 30 ANOSDE MADE URBANA MASCULINO NORTE NSE 40. quartil 30. quartil 2O. quartil Io. quartil NORDESTE NSE 40. quartil 30. quartil 2o. quartl 1o. quartil SUDESTE NSE 40. quartil 3O. quartit 20. quartil 1o. quartff SUL NSE 4o. quarti30. quartit 2o. quartit 1o. quarfil NIOte Fonte: FEMIMIINO RURAL MASCULINO FEMININO TOTAL MASCULINOFEMININO 19.64 22.98 ... ... 19.64 22.98 37.18 44.62 ... ... 37.18 44.62 27.34 28.92 ... ... 27.34 28.92 8.40 1.02 9.87 1.75 ... ... ... ... 8.40 1.02 9.87 1.75 17.24 20.24 1.85 2.58 10.55 13.20 39.87 28.36 8.79 1.28 38.27 34.65 12.44 1.39 39.68:36.92 i.61 0.14 47.73 32.22 7.30 0.51 39.87 29.06 7.81 0.47 38.67 34.46 11.75 0.77 15.90 16.07 3.68 3.33 14.22 14.53 28.14 14.35 3.76 0.50 27.83 12.61 2.18 1.17 28.57 11.75 1.94 0.00 22.94 10.76 2.22 0.18 28.15 14.21 3.45 0.22 27.76 12.50 2.19 0.60 17.24 15.90 4.16 3.49 12.80 11.88 32.20 17.22 ° 483 0.00 28.49. 13.8a, 3.64, 2.96 16.33 9.82 3.06. 1.1t8 9.52 8.84 3.23 0.29 31.08 15.57 4.07 0.80 27.02 12.76 3.48 1.04 = CENTRO-OESTE NSE 4o. quartil 3O. quartil 2o. quartlL 1o. quartl 20.73 20.59 3.29 3.39 16.16 16.50 36.95 29.58 9.67 1'.34. 36.77 27.78 10.10 0.34 25.86 23.42 5.37 0.4B 31.52. 19.47 0.74 36.68 29.16 8.83 0.80 36.66 27.27 9.36 0.58 BRASIL NSE 40. quartil 3o. quartli. 20. quartt: 10. quartil 16.79 17.39 3.02 3.05 13.42 14.12 30.08 17.35 26.00 14.27 2.88. 0.28 22.14 12.82 3.62 0.43 30.61 29.86 16.95 5.43 0.77 30.77 17.93 5.61 0.87 . 5.88 1.42 5.85 17.61 5.00 0.49 Praic:pto rune expim db rhemctthe sar of tbe b,-30 yer old populaboa(i.e.. post secondary school age) in Brci in 1982. which reportedso.e noenday schoaling. Thus,they ae t cornable with perticipan rates presented deeher in thi report. Pesquiza Nocionl por Amowe de Domnicias* 1982 -125- akLA47; FEMALE SHARE OF SECONDARYENROLLMENTS,1981-1987 ANO Note: Fonts: MALE FEMALE 1981 46 54 3,078,597 1982 46 54 2,867,570 1983 45 55 2,866,099 1984 44 56 2,898,351 1985 44 56 1986 42 58 3,290,908 1987 42 58 3,290,021 TOTAL - 3,062,618 These enrollmentsare estimatedby IBGE on the basis of annual householdsurvey data. They do not correspondperfeety with enrollment estimates presentedelsewhere In this report (See Annex Table 5), which are from the Ministryof Educationbased upon repons from schools. PesquisaNaclonal de Amostra por Domicillos 1981, ..., 1987 (Exciul a populacaorural da Regiao Norte) -126- Table 48: MALE AND FEMALE ENROLLMENTS IN FEDERAL TECHNICAL SCHOOLS, REGION 1979 NORTH FEMALE TOTAL 4,082 71 1,688 29 5,770 NORTHEAST 13,580 .'1 5,435 29 19,015 SOUTHEAST 12,439 80 3,046 20 15,485 SOUTH 8,396 77 2,442 23 10,838 CENTER-WEST 2,267 63 1,305 37 3,572 41,064 75 14,016 25 55,080 TOTAL Source: MALE MEC -127- Table 49: GROWTH OF SECONDARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS, BY GENDER, 1981-1987 EVOLUCAO DA MATRICULA DE 2o. GRAU SEGUNDO 0 SEXO ANO MATRICULA POPULACAO 16-18 ANOS bMASCULINO FEMINiNO MASCULINO FEMININO 1981 1,426,968 1,651,629 1982 1,312,485 1,S55,085 1981 1,295,083 1,571,)16 1984 1,283,978 1,614,373 4 095,238 0 4,038,402 0 4,100,170 0 4,135,268 4,073,029 0 4,063,769 0 4,080,205 0 4,109,074 0 0 4,184,260 0 4,181,566 0 4,164,440. 4,224,571 0 4,228,389 0 4,285,926 ___________ Note: 985i 1,346,991 1,715,627 1986 1,387,318 1,903,590 1987 1,366,732 1,923,289 These enrollments are estimated They do not correspond report from Fonte: (See Annex by IBGE on the basis of annual perfectly with enrollment Table 5), which estimates are from the Ministry (Exclui Nacional a populacao de Amostra por Domicilios rural da Regiao Norte) household presented of Education schools. Pesquisa 1981, ... , 1987 TAXA DE PART, BRUTA MASCULINO 34.84% 40.55% - 32.50% - 38.27% 31.59% 38.50% 31.05% 39.29% 32.19% 40.61% 33.18% .4S.02Yo 32,82% 44.87% survey data. elsewhere based FEMININO In this upon reports -128- Table 50: SECONDARY SCHOOL PARTICIPATION, BY FAMILY lNCOME QUARTILE, RACE AND REGION, 1982 PARTICIPACAONO ENSINO DE SEGUNDO GRAU SEGUNDO A COR POPULACAO:25 A 30 ANOSDE DADE URBANA RURAL NORTE NSE 4imqua -k, 3O.quarfl 2o.quaf BRANCA OUTRA 27.24 19.02 ... 43.83 39t.1%9 .x -32.5& i-J z20. qua,tI 595 ... 27.24 19.02 .. 43.83 39.19 32.5S 26.4 ... 9.83 0.55 8.95 1.63 3.58 1.68 16.91 9.57 49.05' 35.94 39.62 33.53 39.97 34.43 38.32 30.47 .63 .... 24.74 15.72 39.56 34.32 38.26 30.18 -- SUOESTE OUTRA .,. 14.34 87 - BRANCA 26.44. 0--.55.- tquanhi io. - TOTAL OUTRA .,. lo..quanl NORDESTE NSE 4mquamrtf3&.qya W BRANCA - 9.24 1.¢ 56 18.25 10.49 29.7r.' 14. 312' 0.S7 24.6 '' 11t.31 2.84 0.668 8.4 8.1% 0.Q*47' 3.5 5.17 0.50 16.69 8.97 29.43 13.16 2.86 016 7.90C 4.23 0.00 0.00 28.71 1429 3.07 0.49S 24.29 11.02 2.50 0.30 4.27 1.58 13.67 4.94 231 21.85 -14.91 6.66 13.20. 0.27 0.52 .67 NSE 4' . quanlS ' 30;,quardlt z- . quartil " 1otv quuI ; SUL NSE 18.24 6.80 , vvquarUJ $. i08 t30.quanij&<{< '. ,.t 1t6.50 4.23 1.80 t'4.27 < 25.61 14.99 '' 20.qu l 1Tmquart[F.ti . , CENTRO-OtEST NSE 40.q4:uan . 3au.quarulE " '2qarW:U . .,,,quwUl . BRASIL 1; i; s48 1- v934 . : 7.;z*43'^'$' 0.80 3$ss 31t.33>.:' . 25Q;.0 .... fW.7t .... 0:.8D, ,',M94''.& 19.46 ' 12.97 735 '0-00y 9.76 -'' -t 3 - '' ''3.'' ' <3a.93 ' E-' ' 0.54 5S54 [04.70 417 t.05 0.64 1.63 21.31 11.17 .17.89 38.16: 33.19 : 24.32. .'0&.4 8 1.26 1021 5.27 0 30.73 1.02 24.S4 7.90 0.50 4.49 1.43 16.42 9.65 30.30 t.10 5.03 29.79 17.64 5.45 0.68 0.60 : .9* . NSE :.',q4aqUI 3.. quar% 2- . quartil TO.quarOt ; Eie: I ran 30.48', 1.8. ,.5t.0 .3o0¢'.00'^ t7.74 5.'93 t.23 24.44, 2Z2. ' t 12.9 S.84 :7 '.54 Z 4T7 0.53 bwe MGMthe-am at tbs 25-11,ysat3d1M= ia Brag i 1932,whih aup-tId - u.aa.deh7 inscoling.Thus. tbsy raw I d dewbeg in this, Pusqui Nock" parA d Daimifi192 Q.24 (R PM a.pmnbl wib the patico -129TAblo51: SCHOOLIN 1982BYLEVEL OF STUDENTSENTERINGSECONDARY PERCENTAGE OF EDUCATIONATTAINEDBY FATHERANDFAMLY INCOMEQUARTILE GRAUEM 1982 NO SEGUNDO DE INGRESSANTES PERCENTAGEM DO PAI SEGUNDO0 GRAUDE INSTRUCAO GRAUEM 1981 DO PRIMbIRO CONCLUlNTES POPULACAO: TOIAL 4m.quartil . 3o. quartR 2*.quart. . ;to.quarff - 71.65 83.98 92.47 aTOM= 73.64- 83.71 93.73 81.73 88.810.00. 74.27 68.89 76.48- 86.99 75.00 91.03 ... 80.52 86.91 92.72 75.5: 86.36 86.32 .7 7.03 97.86 86.37 6 94.85 82.49 77.62 8s.se 90.34 NORTE NSE . 70.86 NOROESTE NSE .4c. quartl 3o..quarti 2o1.quartW-- - . 84.94 74.88 W1~ . 1o. ura6.0 SUDESTE NSE -:..-;,:quart, -quarUl ; 2o. GRAU OU MAlS lo. GRAU COMPLETO lo. GOUU INCOMPLETO ANALFA3rTO 64.15 65.65 85.9 W4... 7424 79 52;;'a. 5*5.5 S ; 2-ls r to. quafl r., 8 -8L30 4.39 87.48 . ; 58.14 tUL 85.66 80.t5 -65.0 77. 6243 61.29 80.38 s . 6 s3- 84J 72.42 02.05 87.55 8.4t. 7S.lntt 83.0$ 89.00 6.69- z. NSE 6~~~~~~0 ~7M.W6 4o.~~~~quarta' ; 8 ezur~ 64.95 CENTRO-OESTE NSE .~ 100.00 75.24 4o. quartW .u-ftl .. ;.ta 2...... vg-. Zo..quar: BRASIL NSE . _Fonte .s:'' artl, 4o;: S3. :uanW , ::', -. 0/ 67 84-4 60.25 6856 81..... iji 6. ;';S2 ......... 4S G2 6.7"' 2. quafrit to.: quartil 64w.52 "64.1: Pesquisa Nacional por Amowta de DomkIlos -1982 a 6. >.:; 56.04g0.W@00 10.... 86.46 6224 $ '86.29 . .... 87.42 .0 -68M : 80.71 6~ 82.52 72t5 6.9O.. 74.39. -130.= ~~ LEVELOF EDUCATIONq A'ITAJND BY FATHERCOMPAREDWrrH THA4TOF CHILD Nrv'ELDE INsmRucAo Do PAl CoMPARADo com 0 NIVEL DE INSTRUCAODO PILHo POPULACAO: 25 A 30 ANOSDE RDADE. 8RASEL TOTAL NIVIEIL O INS.TRUAQ009PAI ANALPABErO lo. U&,%U 1o. QRAU UINCOMPU~Tro COMPLTO 2o.QRAU OUMAtS OERAL NSE- 44o.QUARTIL ANALFABET NIVEL 0.25 1-0.GreIna .01.107 2t.48 1.6 23.5249-.77' 0.65' 4.58. 3.79 10.95 24.28'. 21.17 14.31 21.63L 61.5 77.85, at-ie 66.77 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 4.88' 2.11 Z7 2'.13 2.72 40.1 4011 30'.39 29.67, 41.05 30.07 3.96: 4"Ma 3.8 32.32 4&5&. 21.9 23.91 100.00 100.00 100.00 DS INSTRUCACI. GrComp, FILM.O 20*.;ou. TOTAL NSE- 30. QUARTIL - NIV-L. * ANALFASEM.ft. GeIna-4 IN~~tSTIWCAO-, la. Gr Camp RLi~0- 2o~Gr'cu 109424. TOTAL 100.00 100.00 NSE- 20. QUARTIL 0.~~~~~. 4 4~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~: ' .. : ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~.. Camp TOTAL EgaM QC PNu icaNQUA prARTIL (C.-&a Nrt R' a 09 4 LW 100.00 omdio 100.00 18 100.00 100.00 4.83~~~4 100.00 -131- IIl i PERCEHNTAGEOF STUE RG SECONDARY SCHOOL N 1982, BY TYPE N 1981 AND FAMLY )NCOME QUARTE OF SCHOOL ATEDED PERCENTAGEM DE INGREMANS NOSEGUNDOGRAUEM 1982SEGUNDO0 TIPO DE ESCOLA FREQUENTADA EM 1981 POPULACAO:CONCLUIPITESDO PRMEIRO GRAU EM 1981 RURA-L (¾S) ______ (%) PUBLICA PARTICULAR PUBICA A (%) PARTICULAR PUBLICA PARTICULAR 78.61 85.22 ... ... 78.61 85.22 4*. quanlt 3o. quati 85.32 ... .'. 85.32 89.67 .. ... 2c. quanit to. quarit 7.80 7&37 89.67 79.20 5&.96 ... . 79.20 56.96 .. .. 78.20 70.80 78.37. 77.68 80.17 84.67 100.00 100.00 59.12 775 90.47 83.87 73.00 63.42 90.58 87.57 73.92 68.91 NORTE NSE 7&20 NORDESTE . 80.50 85.93 77.84 90.1S 8a58 72.5 44.27 89.93 86.38 78.36 60.50 100.00 74.57 76.77 7695 70.89 74.26 54.31 63.05 69.97 74.10 79.86 62.06 57.29 78.9$ 6730 48.68 50.83 75.71 48.17 0.00 57.91 100.00 79.09 62.46 54.90 78.96 67.03 52.63 NSE 4Q. quart 30. quaU 2a. quarW I. quarw2l SUDESTE NSE 4m. quaRnt 3*o. quartU 2a. quar . -@~ ,OlUaRti SUL NSE 4&.quaM . lt 0.00. 88.25 4t.36 75.25 60.30 57.71 67.67 72.35 77. 4 6M 49.10 71.42 76.49 85.81 68.93 81.23 VW4.0 100.00 60." 47.25 37.9 0.00 55.20 49.07 30.02 33.33 1X300.00 60.25.O- .69.83 72. 3& oquar7. 2o. quafitL -: 11quarIi .00. FMniui 3 49.9 : 4.0 CENTO-OESTE NSE 4oLaquartI 3 ..uah .2acqurtt' lo. quarMS 77.18 83.86 35.81 66.87 73.51 83.23 76.0381.96 71.07 603a 88.331 7.51 66.3 100.00 8721 To0.00 0.00 1 M00. 0.00 76.28 79.14 65.04 60.99 88.59 71.51 71.16 MGM BRASIL NSE 4o.quart :o. quartS 2*. quartS quart 73.48 77.95 61.22 70.03 72.26 77.40 79.70 70.17 65.13 67.41 81.72 74.15 62.W 68.51 6S5 65.02 56.63 65.05 88.83 84.56 60.63 54.74 79.04 69.77 63.27 66.117 81.82 74.95 (344 21.00 .2.15 4k72 Pesquisa Nacional por Amosta de OomciUlos - 1982 -132-- Table 54STIDENT FLOWS AT DIFFERENT TYPES OF BRAZILIAN SECONDARY SCHOOLS (1984 data) Typeof School FederalTechnical Dropout Repeat Pm. Grade2 Grade3 0.1123 0.1852 0.7025 0.0629 0.1413 0.7958 0.0286 0.0565 0.9149 Dropout Repeat Pass 0.2916 0.2184 0.4900 0.2180 0.1511 0.6309 0.0997 0.0659 0.8344 Municinlg Dropout Riepeat - : Pmss .0.2871: 0.1,2 0.5504 0.2234 0.11.300.663 0.0884 0.0416 0.8700 :0.0844 0.0684 :0.1306 0.0461 ...... D.. :)ropout Repa Source Grade1 0.1735. 0-.1266 MEC/SEECStatistcs. 1985 { Grade4 0.0358 0.0606 0.9036 Table 55: NUMBER OP SCHOOLS, TEACHERS, STUDENTS AND STUDENT-TEACHER RATIOS AT DIFFERENT SECONDARY SCHOOLS, 1980.1985. State Number of Soconay ScbWl Numberof Teachers Nqmber of Stdent Numberof StudentsPer Scbool Numar of Sudeatsper Teachsr Municipal 1980 198s 1980 2,957 4,421 525 Federal 198s 1980 638 117 137 3,844 7.750 s7,556 108,889 8,466 10,318 8,292 I,324,60 1,780,155 97,454 132,333 86,125 402 186 14 16 12 Sources: MEGSEEC,RetratoEstatisticada Educacaoand SinopseEstatistica do EnsinoRegulardo 2o. Grau Private 1980 1985 93,773 448 . 207 13 99,422 1,310,921 TOTAL 1985 1980 198s 4,064 7,443 9,260 79.154 198,087 206.111 1,004,228 2,819.8L2 3,016,138 736 72s 341 247 379 326 10 13 Is 13 14 Is ]aik 56 PERCENrAGE OP DROP-OUTS, FAILURES, REPEATERSANDGRADUATESBY TYPE OF SCHOOL EVADDO, REPROVADOS,REPETENTES E CONCLUINTES PORDEPENDENCIA ADMINISTRATIVA - 2o.GRAU BRASIL 1970 - 1986 ANO PUBLICO PARTICULAR TOTAL EVAYJU IEDIATA 9 _____ 1970 FEPRO- AEPET- CONCLU- EVASAO REPRO- REPET- CONCLU- VADO8 ENTE8 INTE8 IMEDIATA VADOS ENTES INTES 41 9il| _ 20.28 % 6 REPRO- REPET- CONCLU- ENTES INTES *% Ks 1972 4.48 4.56 11.69 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 10.52 11.12 15.93 11.35 15.92 13.65 17.97 13.65 18.28 1815 18.55 16.88 17.97 18.63 17.99 '20.42 19.30 21.22 16.19 25.39 22.76 21.72 23.74 21.71 6.26 6.17 6.28 7.24 7.08 10.34 8.96 10.03 12.48 13.72 12.23 12.50 1985 23.39 19.23 12.82 15.96 12.96 9.93 7.31 26.01 19.92 18.51 10.98 19.31 1986 24.19 19.31 13.05 16.34 13.42 11.17 7.40 24.91 20.61 18.92 11.18 19.19 1971 19.15 14.39 10.87 ... ... ... 19.70 19.57 3.62 4.18 6.00 12.44 8.22 5.60 0.00 0.00 4.66 25.23 25.47 27.14 20.72 19.08 16.47 16.84 15.48 17.24 15.09 15.85 15.69 16.47 16.38 16.38 9.25 11.09 12.03 11.63 11.63 8.33 18.13 17.09 12.70 14.02 14.47 14.36 5.30 6.16 7.89 8.55 8.73 11.38 12.00 10.41 9.78 11.01 11.68 12.22 2.68 2.49 2.70 3.23 3.43 3.60 3.48 4.08 5.13 4.83 5.71 6.68 24.45 23.05 22.14 23.07 23.20 24.65 24.04 23.06 25.45 25.81 25.96 26.23 SEECGEC Obe: i EVASAO IUWEDIATA VADOS Osd do derpuida rimaeodtmunapwr de193 Includ EVASAOIEDIATA a 100 * (1AT. INICIAL- MAT.FINALIMAT.INICIAL REPAOVACAO * 100* (MAT.FINAL- APROVADOS) I MAT.FINAL REPETENTES a loo * REPETENTESIMAT. INICIAL 4.09 4.41 9.26 16.11 11.68 8.54 9.98 8.60 13.81 9.01 14.16 10.97 15.08 11.23 15.19 13.61 13.82 14.17 18.04 15.54 17.57 15.74 16.45 16.05 15.30 19.41 19.58 17.62 20.46 18.14 6.03 6.40 5.54 22.51 22.23 22.81 4.72 4.56 4.66 5.41 5.39 7.22 6.41 7.27 9.30 10.08 9.73 10.46 22.32 20.82 19.04 19.68 19.05 20.67 19.26 19.20 19.91 20.29 20.06 19.83 -135- IabIl.ZLNUMEROF DROP-OUTS, FAILURES AND GRADUATESBY TYPE OF SCHOOL PORDEPENDENCIA E CONCLU1NTES REPROVADOS SVADIDOS, BRAZI - 20 GRAU ADMINISTRATIVA CWU4OSOIA ANO ADMINIS TIVA __ 1017tl 107 O.373 1072 1073 1074 1is 1l0 107 _ 111.1 1 4.242 02261 ".0241 1C4..726 85,06 71,4e8 ... 4602 67.0727 704.173 7,479 82084 87966 9237 312 60.180 121,48a 134,720 104373 82,803 53,25 66,431 87.052 02.78 122.835 145. 174.744 1,419.248 1,086 1.16,1 1..97 253.092 254S077 271283 047.387 0"4.30 1as1 1,301.232 1.t20O 309.003 1.01.086m 25 74,15 106 1063 1064 15 l8W 1067 t11.60,62 1.190,06 2O11*O1O 2.11.067 1.421.6 1.401,302 1.4043.473 1.841.36 1.t11,OtO 274,746 412.8 486.800 4790.16 911.006 1,060.043 1,00.0916 1,148.76 I.2.917 1.2.317 350,006 34,448 317,78 26,483 300,351 2.0664 ... 382.161 433.36 432.617 646106 4,2" 38,21 29,242 30.507 25.873 17,007 114,282 124.044 150.676 155,107 014.744 710.6n 816.040 0,206 40,3S 60,1 0 76.320 66S0M 16,379 23.706 33.3 38.701 169.864 104.16 2.2 261,56 42,241 43.07 83S,5215 280.410 297.826 30274 744,?70 1814.22 3.725 150,52 166.1" 210.171 2,264 ._.. 462.81 46.4&6 16t402 1071 467,046 56171 0623 466s7 62t.Us 575.612 S6610 771.543 of,8 0311256 20.371 33.312 73.l36 77.036 1000,706 1.127.414 1.079.306 1,014.261 1073 1.174.146 1,3 IlIW 1061 1902 1II 1o" 163 18 1637 1,06.06 1.31t,21 121tW716 1.0t,. 1.177.8W 1,012.746 061,166 1,13364 014.A 1.02,16 674.04 104 010.41" 1.01.61,11 1.147.77 Iwo 1VA 1612 167 1074 1t 10 1677 17 19t s 1W 15 16w 18W 166 Ion ION 1.0.W475 1.110.421 1*6.667 1.477.666 1.661.723 I,6.0 2.217 2437.701 2UWU L6607 161 ," 2L L0874 2*1.007 28.1." U13.13I 3.164.W 3*.41 a ptnd admda __P 13.674 61.733 105.406 117.430 131.110 07.640 224,7 235.114 214,198 235.051 107.876 251,1a6 232.77 221,.l3 235.67 287.86 270,359 297.124 314.=2 321.070 345.305 275 .A2 053774 122,522 121,76 ... ... 22,6 154.617 62.574 310.408 16O.7 60127 111,473 16.83 303.041 1UM 1461106 130,163 141,11? 85346 77617 7667 7".016 112.113 108,066 367916 101.60 64.462 68.924 73.387 77.148 293.355 270,871 201.246 261.0 60.42 71.064 5 7 66,610 73.63 0.137 l1.667 131,400 163.306 17,216 204,416 21,480 20.617 Mu6* 3OL,8 2314 363,672 225,013 246.683 26.44 220,811 310.177 3M.470 435,480 46.481 $24.524 512.024 611,335 11011 s16.00 16.479 s3,1 18.310 6@7. - 41*13 3 4 120.341 1.179.666 147*3 1J,02361 *6 1.440.40 1.1111.464 274.010 333.601 1.t6143 37t 2.007.316 860.36 L167.097 2. 479,4 2,t7 46i62 L23M705 L2317.0711 40I,3 46411634 4. 579x.3 2.20.761 6OL3 2347.7 AM t U41. t6.10 L6*L.0 1033hmiu 141,087 127.180 151,320 6U5 728 30.731 011141I - 187,454 216.811 180.313 174.280 202,587 202.886 .. Il I6F7 _ 24,681 2MM82 87.028 5.821 843.364 044e" 1.08,487 1,202,4 1.310,37 1.386U. 12 1i72 1074 I17 l1or 1077 57 * .25.03 smlelO 667.737 754.0 794.350 680,041 S06.7 1.071.025 1.110,7111 107 10m 100 O moft 1970 - 1987 MATRICULA EVASA APROVADOSREPROVADOSROPETENTESCONCLUINTES MATRMICULA IMEDIATA FINAL INICIAL _ - 517.406 u7.m 1.0761811 .21.2 1.31612 1.479.172 .t .064 1,735.866 1.t77.101 1.3,0 1.961216 1t 76 1,066,2 1.8A40 1.6316 1.033* Loo7 _ 113,00 104,133 -... 16010 1t..3 123,4O6 100.73 114,410 IMA6 1,0 t2,312 1 211054 2311,31 300,81 338 305,004 3O73 472,4 417*0 423,766 447,041 476V _ _ -136- Table 58 REASONSFOR DROPPING OUT OF SCHOOL, URBAN STUDENTS, 1982 MOTIVOPORQUEDEDCOUDE FREQUENTARA ESCOLA POPULACAO 25 A 30ANOSCOMPR9IEmROORAU CONCLUiDO FALTADE VA- NORTE NSE 4o. quartil 3o.quartf 2o.quartil lo.quardt NAOQUERA OUTRO CC.'JTET4JAR MOTIVO SD0tE4 ESTUDOS TOTAL 2.90 48.98 15.90 32.22 100.00 1.59 3.85 2.71 5.68 45.33 47.54 51.81 64.95 17.12 15.82 16.12 5.68 35.96 32.79 29.37 k3.69 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 4.35 48.67 18.35 28.64 100.00 2.70 2.58 5.98 14.03 40.01 48.82 53.64 49.51 29.68 17.11 12.67 19.07 27.60 31.49 27.71 17.39 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 1.44 SS.81 24.45 18.30 100.00 1.47 1.12 2.47 0.00 50.08 59.18 65.64 72.93 27.45 24.04 14.43 21.89 21.D3 15.67 17.47 5.18. 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 SUL NSE 4o.quartl 3o. quartll 2o. quarff to. quardti 4.54 53.68 24.29 17.49 100.00 6.85 3.78 0Q.55 0.00 48.51. 56.40 65.02 69.28 26.01 23.61 20.66 30.72 20.64 18.22 13.77 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 CENTRO-OESTE NSE 40. quartR. 3o. quart 2o.quarttl 1o.quartl- 2.15 51.42 25.17 21.26 100.00 2.89 1.9?1.26 7.50 44.97 51.44 57.99 59.23 l4.86 26.0926.02 15.59 27.58 20.87 14.73 17.68 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2.47 53.93 23.32 20.29 100.00 2.58 48.29 1.86 56.54 2o. quardl 3.16 60.40 1o.quartil 7.60 59.57 PesquisaNaclonalpor Amostrade Domicilios- 1982 27.00 22.13 18.63 20.50 13.09 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 NORDESTE NSE 40. quartil 30. quartf 2o.quartil 1o.qu,MtI SUDESTE NSE 4o.quartil 3o.quarbt 2o.quardti lo.quartll. BRASIL NSE 4o.quartf 3o. quaral fgntQ. TRABALK%R OA OU SERIE . 22.96 15.94 19.74 -137- Table 529 REASONS FOR DROPPING OUT OF SCHOOL, RURAL STUDENTS, 1982 MOTIVO PORQUE DEDCOUDE FREQUENTAR A ESCOLA POPULACAO23 A 30 ANOS COWPRIMEMOORAU CONCLUDO .URAL FALTADE V%- TRABALHAR OAOuseItE NORTE ... ... ... ... ... ... OUTRO MAOQUUA CONTINUAR TOTAL MOTIVO ... ... ... ... ... ... ... NSE 4O. quartil 3O. quartil 2O. quartil 10. quartil ...... ... NQRDESTE NSE 4O. quartft 3O.quartfl 2O. quarnl 10. quartl - - ...... 4.68 40.34 15.01 39.97 100.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.04 48.50 24.28 38.72 44.25 9.30 9.45 38.72 5.62 42.20 66.27 22.56 39.09 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 SUDESTE NSE 40. quartit 3o. quartfl - 20. quartl10. quartit 14.67 42.95 32.88 9.50 100.00 9.20 9.58 21.22 33.56 58.27. 39.64 24.03 66.44 27.95 39.2439.82 0;00 4.57 11.54 14.93 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 SUL 11.27 50.88 13.81 24.05 100.00 NSE 4O. quartit 3o-.quartif 2O.quarti- 6.14; 1 9:.47 8.91 43.31 55.8 54.18: 8.12: 5.08 1892 42.43. 19.56 17.92- 100.00 100.00 100.00 to. quartil 0.00 32.98- 67.04 0.00 100.00 7.67 48.35 35.41 8.58 100.00 0.011' 03 - 9.24 6.72 625 M. 46 62.43 44.53 0.00 75.2623.54 40.05 37.43 0.00' 4.80 8.7t 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 10.58 45.81 22.98 20.64 100.00 51.27 15.88 26.73 100.00 2510 20.22. 15.67 22.27 100.00 CENTRO-OESTE NSE 40. quait30. quaardtif 2quartif 2-. 1o. quartt ;*. BRASIL NSE 4O.quartl- - 6.12 12.4 422 11.07 44.46 1a. quartt 12.6 46.82 Posquisa iNacionalpar Amostra de Domicillos- 1982 3O. quartif 2o. quarti EFt ... ... 28.80 18.22 100.00 100.00 -138- Table jQ REASONSFOR DROPPING OUT OF SCHOOL, ALL STUDENTS, 1082 EQUENTARA ESOLA MOTIVOPORQUEDEKOU DE 25A 30 AMOSCOM(PRDwUZRO ORAUC0OMCLUIDO POPULACAO FALTADE VA- TRABALXAR NAOQUEA OA OU S3RE CONTlNUAR sUouUnT EflUDOS OUTRO TOTAL MOTIVO NORTE NSE 40. quartll 3o. quartil 20. quardl 1o. quartil 2.90 48.98 15.90 32.22 100.00 1.59 3.85 2.71 5.68 45.33 47.54 51.81 64.95 17.12 .5.82 16.12 5.68 35.96 32.79 29.37 23.69 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 NORDESTE NSE 40. quartl 30. quartfl 20. quartil Io. quartil 4.38 47.77 17.99 29.86 100.00 2.48 2.45 5.53 12.41 40.72 47.58 52.52 46.66 27.97 16.72 14.63 11.78 28.83 33.24 27.32 29.15 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2.03 55.24 24.83 17.90 100.00 1.69 1.44 4.31 16.01 50.29 58.43 61.56 69.84 27.46 24.62 16.91 1t.44 20.56 1S.5t 17.22 2.71 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 5.54 53.27 22.73 18.47 100.00 6.78 .71 3.04 0.00, 46.19 56.33 6t.82 56.04 24.26 21.33 20.15 43.98 22.77 16.63 t4.99 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 2.94 50.98 26.63 19.44 100.00 273 2.20 3.00 7.01 45.98 48.83 58.98 51.2 23.19 29.5g1 25.48 280S 28.13 19.39 12.57 12.83 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 23.29 20.31 100.00 26.48 23.08 17.65 19.00 22.34 18.72, 19.88 17.55 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.'* SUDESTE NSE 40. quartl 3o. quartt 2o.quartil 1o. quarthl SUL NSE 40. quartI 3*. quartl 20. quartf Io. quauff CENTRO-OESTE NSE 40. quartl 3o. quaroit 2o. quartit 1o. quarthi 63.30 3.10 BRASIL NSE 48.43 2.75 40. quartE 55.74 2.48 3o. quartEt 58.28 4.21 20. qua'ttn 53.38 f0.07 to. quardl EqM~gg~ PesquisaNacionalpor Amoasrade Domicilioa- 1982 Table 61: BRAZIL:OVERALLPOPULATIONGROWrH AND PROJECTEDGROWTH OF THE SECONDARYSCHOOL-AGEPOPULATION (in thousands) Total Population Populationaged 15-19 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 135564 150190 165151 179804 193889 207192 219345 13914 14839 16288 17991 18589 19233 19306 2.05 1.g 1.7 1.51 1.3q 1.14 1.3 1.9 2.0 0.7 Annual Growth rate (of total poputAbon) Annual Growth rate (of secondary-age populatioi) Source: World Bank populationprojections - 141 - BIBLIOGRAPHY Adams, Arvil V. and Antoine Schwartz, "VocationalEducationand EconomicEnvironments: Conflict or Convergence?"World Bank WorkingPaper Series 70, Washington,D.C. 1988. 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