the Complete Appendices - Debt

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Appendix A A-‐1 25% Japan Nominal GDP, Public and Private debt-‐ Year over Year growth 20% 15% Private Debt 10% GDP 5% -‐5% -‐10% 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 0% Public Debt Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to non-‐Iinancial sectors, percentages are author's calculations; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff A-‐2 China Nominal change in GDP, Public and Private debt 140% Year over Year growth 120% 100% 80% GDP 60% Public 40% Private 0% -‐20% -‐40% 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20% Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Public debt-‐ People's Bank of China; Private debt-‐ 1985-‐ 2007-‐BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors, percentages are author's calculations; 2008-‐2012-‐ CEIC Appendix B B-‐1 Change in Nominal Private Debt and Employment-‐ 0.69 correlation 97% 96% 95% 94% 93% 92% 91% 90% 89% 88% 87% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Employment/labor force ratio Change in private debt (year over year) 0% -‐2% -‐4% Sources-‐ Private debt-‐Federal Reserve; Employment&Labor force-‐CBO Appendix C “Debt Snapshot” charts: Debt and GDP viewed both nominally and as a percentage leading up to a crisis. C-‐1a. US Crisis of 1988: Nominal GDP, Private and Federal debt 1975-‐1995 in billions $10,000 $8,000 GDP $6,000 Private debt $4,000 Federal debt $2,000 $0 Sources-‐ GDP-‐ Bureau of Economic Analysis; Private debt-‐ Federal Reserve; Federal debt-‐ treasurydirect.gov C-‐1b.
140% US Crisis of 1988: Private and Federal debt to GDP 1975-‐1995 19% Growth 1982-‐1987 120% 100% Private Debt 80% 60% Federal Debt 20% 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 40% Sources-‐ GDP-‐ Bureau of Economic Analysis; Private debt-‐ Federal Reserve; Federal debt-‐ treasurydirect.gov Appendix C C-‐2a. Crisis of 2007-‐08: US 1990-‐2012 Nominal GDP, Federal and Private debt in billions $30,000 $25,000 GDP $20,000 $15,000 Private Debt $10,000 Federal Debt $0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 $5,000 Sources-‐GDP-‐ Burea of Economic Analysis; Private debt-‐ Federal Reserve; Federal debt-‐ treasurydirect.gov C-‐2b. Crisis of 2007-‐08: US 1990-‐2012 Private and Federal debt to GDP 180% 20% growth 2002-‐2007 160% 140% Flat growth 120% Private Debt 100% Federal Debt 80% 40% 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 60% Sources: GDP-‐ Burea of Economic Analysis; Private debt-‐ Federeal Reserve; Federal debt-‐ treasurydirect.gov Appendix C C-‐3a. UK 2007-‐08 Crisis: Nominal GDP, Public and Private Debt in millions GBP £3,500,000 £3,000,000 £2,500,000 Public debt £2,000,000 £1,500,000 Private debt £1,000,000 GDP £500,000 £0 Sources: GDP-‐ UN; Private Debt -‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors, Public Debt -‐ Reinhart&Rogoff C-‐3b. UK 2007-‐08 Crisis: Private and Public Debt to GDP 220% 24% growth 2003-‐2008 200% 180% 160% Flat growth 140% Private debt/
GDP 120% 100% General gov debt/GDP 80% 60% Sources: GDP-‐UN; Private Debt -‐ BIS, long series on credit to non-‐Iinancial sectors, ratios are author's calculations; Public Debt -‐ Reinhart&Rogoff 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 20% 1992 40% Appendix C C-‐4a. 2,000,000 1,800,000 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 -‐ 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 in billion won (Korea) in billion rupiah (Indonesia) Asian Crisis of 1997: Nominal GDP, Private and Public debt Indonesia GDP Indonesia Public Debt Indonesia Private Debt Korea GDP 200,000 Korea Private Debt -‐ Korea Public Debt Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, Long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff C-‐4b. Asian Crisis of 1997: Private and Public Debt to GDP 180% 160% 140% 29% growth 1992-‐1997 Korea Private Debt/GDP 120% 100% 80% 60% Korea Public Debt/GDP 43% growth 1992-‐1997 Indonesia Private Debt/
GDP 40% 0% 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 20% Indonesia Public Debt/
GDP Sources-‐ GDP-‐UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, , long series on credit to private non-‐
Iinancial sectors, ratios are author's calculations ; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff Appendix C C-‐5a. Ireland 2008 Crisis: Nominal GDP, Public and Private Debt in million euro 600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 -‐ GDP 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Private debt General Gov debt Sources: GDP-‐UN; Private Debt -‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors; Public Debt -‐ Reinhart&Rogoff C-‐5b. Ireland 2008 Crisis: Private and Public Debt to GDP 350% 300% 79% growth 2003-‐2008 250% 200% 150% 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 Public debt/GDP 0% 1999 50% 1998 Private debt/GDP 1997 100% Sources: GDP-‐UN; Private Debt -‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐
Iinancial sectors, author's calculations; Public Debt -‐ Reinhart&Rogoff Appendix C C-‐6a. Portugal 2008 Crisis: Nominal GDP, Public and Private debt in million euro € 500,000 € 400,000 € 300,000 GDP € 200,000 Private debt € 100,000 General Gov debt € -‐ Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff C-‐6b. Portugal 2008 Crisis: Private and Public debt to GDP 275% 24% growth 2003-‐2008 225% 175% 125% Private debt Public debt 2011 2010 2009 2007 2008 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 25% 1996 75% Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐financial sectors, ra>os are author's calcula>ons; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff Appendix C C-‐7a. Greece 2008 Crisis: Nominal GDP, Public and Private Debt € 350,000 in million euro € 300,000 € 250,000 GDP € 200,000 Private debt € 150,000 Public debt € 100,000 € 50,000 € -‐ Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff C-‐7b. Greece 2008 Crisis: Private and Public Debt to GDP 150% 130% 57% growth 2002-‐2007 110% 90% Private debt/GDP 70% Public debt/GDP 50% 30% Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors, ratios are author's calculations; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff Appendix C C-‐8a Japan Crisis of 1991: Nominal GDP, Public and Private Debt in million yen ¥1,200,000,000 ¥1,000,000,000 GDP ¥800,000,000 Private debt ¥600,000,000 Public debt ¥400,000,000 ¥0 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 ¥200,000,000 Note-‐ Public debt 1975-‐1980 is Central Government debt Sources: GDP-‐UN; Private Debt -‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors; Public Debt -‐ Reinhart&Rogoff C-‐8b Japan Crisis of 1991: Private and Public Debt to GDP 250% 28% growth 1985-‐1990 200% 11% decline 1995-‐2000 Private debt 150% Public debt 100% 2011 2009 2007 2005 2003 2001 1999 1997 1995 1993 1991 1989 1987 1985 1983 1981 1979 1977 0% 1975 50% Note-‐ Public debt 1975-‐1980 is Central Government debt Sources: GDP -‐UN; Private Debt -‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iianancial sectors, ratio's are author's calculations; Public Debt -‐ Reinhart&Rogoff Appendix C C-‐9a China nominal GDP, Private and Public debt in billion yuan ¥120,000 ¥100,000 ¥80,000 GDP ¥60,000 ¥40,000 Private debt ¥20,000 Public debt 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 ¥0 Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN: Public debt-‐People's Bank of China; Private debt-‐ 1997-‐2007-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors; 2008-‐2012-‐ CEIC C-‐9b China Private and Public debt to GDP 54% growth 2007-‐2012 Flat Growth Private debt 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 Public debt 1997 200% 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Public debt-‐ People's Bank of China; Private debt-‐1997-‐2007-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐financial sectors, author's calcula>ons; 2008-‐2012-‐ CEIC D-‐1: Countries ranked by GDP size. 2012 GDP (US $) Earliest date for private debt Earliest date for Government debt Private debt to GDP (2012) Public debt to GDP (2012) $16,244,600,000,000 1916 1792 158% 99% China $8,358,399,572,299 1985 1984 182% 32% Japan $5,960,180,293,678 1970 1981 168% 226%* Germany $3,425,956,470,874 1970 1970 123% 79%* France $2,611,221,274,736 1970 1977 162% 84%* UK $2,471,600,098,476 1970 1980 189% 77%* Brazil $2,254,109,312,134 1993 1988 72% 48%* Russia $2,029,811,921,466 1995 2000 61% 11%* Italy $2,013,391,856,571 1970 1970 127% 118%* India $1,875,213,100,479 1970 1991 58% 72%* Canada $1,821,445,449,562 1970 1970 191% 54%* Australia $1,564,418,500,330 1970 1970 178% 11%* Spain $1,322,125,735,239 1970 1970 216% 64%* Mexico $1,183,655,210,446 1980 1970 25% 28%* Korea $1,129,598,273,241 1970 1976 174% 32%* Indonesia $878,043,028,446 1976 1970 35% 33%* Turkey $788,299,145,612 1986 1977 59% 49%* Netherlands $770,066,718,925 1970 1971 221% 67%* Saudi Arabia $711,049,591,606 1993 1999 40% 4% Switzerland $631,183,475,908 1975 1983 212% 35%* Iran $551,587,509,015 n/a n/a n/a n/a Sweden $523,804,384,713 1970 1970 255% 42%* Norway $499,667,211,001 209% Ratios are author’s calculations 47%* *2010 US Source-‐ UN Appendix D. 1970 1980 i
BIS, Long series on Reinhart&Rogoff ; credit to private Treasurydirect.gov; non-‐financial IMF; People’s bank sectors; Federal of China Reserve; CEIC Appendix D D-‐2: Largest 22 economies ranked by Private debt to GDP, with their nominal GDP year over year growth. (not including Iran-‐ no reliable data) Sweden Netherlands Spain Switzerland Norway Canada UK China Australia Korea Japan France US Italy Germany Brazil Russia Turkey India Saudi Arabia Indonesia Mexico Private Debt to GDP GDP Growth 2012 2010 2011 255% 7.5% 4.9% 221% 2.7% 2.3% 216% 0.1% 1.4% 212% 3.6% 2.2% 209% 7.1% 7.8% 191% 6.3% 5.8% 189% 4.6% 3.4% 182% 16.3% 15.5% 178% 8.2% 5.0% 174% 10.2% 5.4% 168% 2.3% -‐2.8% 162% 2.7% 3.1% 158% 4.6% 3.8% 128% 2.2% 1.7% 115% 5.1% 3.9% 72% 16.4% 9.9% 61% 16.4% 20.8% 59% 15.0% 18.0% 58% 18.8% 15.4% 38% 18.5% 21.3% 35% 15.8% 15.4% 25% 9.6% 10.1% Sources-‐ UN; BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐financial sectors, ratios are author's calculations; Federal Reserve; CEIC 2012 1.3% -‐0.4% -‐3.4% 0.9% 6.9% 5.9% 3.2% 13.3% 2.8% 16.8% 1.5% 1.8% 3.7% -‐0.8% 2.8% 6.3% 14.7% 9.0% 13.2% 5.8% 11.0% 8.6% Appendix D D-‐3. Sweden 1% Switzerland 1% Iran 1% Saudi Arabia 1% Turkey 1% Indonesia 1% Netherlands 1% 2012 World GDP source-‐ UN Rest of World 19% Korea 2% Mexico Australia 2% 2% Canada Spain 2% 3% India Italy 3% 3% Russia Brazil 3% 3% United States 22% China 12% Japan 8% UK 3% France 4% Germany 5% Table E-‐1 Top countries by GDP Australia Brazil Brazil Canada China France Germany India Indonesia Italy Japan Mexico Mexico Netherlands Norway Russia Russia Saudi Arabia South Korea Spain Spain Sweden Sweden Switzerland Turkey Turkey UK US US total countries, 27 total crises 22 19 have a pre crisis debt buildup 3 with no pre crisis debt buildup 5 crises with no private debt data Appendix E. Crisis date 1989 1990 1994 -‐ 1998 2008 2008 1993 1997 2008 1991 1981 1994 2008 1991 1998 2008 -‐ 1997 1977 2008 1991 2008 2008 1982 2000 2007 1988 2007 Credit boom preceding crisis? Yes no data no data n/a Yes Yes no no yes yes yes no data yes yes yes no data yes n/a yes yes yes yes yes no no data yes yes yes yes Appendix E Table E-‐2 The results in chart form from our thesis on 18% private debt to GDP growth over 5 years. A financial crisis is either from the list on Appendix H, or if there is a GDP contraction within 5 years of the boom period. COUNTRIES WITH 150+% PRIVATE DEBT TO GDP before 2000 True Positives, Private debt to GDP > 150% Private debt to GDP Boom years Financial Crisis Norway 151% 1986-‐1990 1991 Sweden 155% 1987-‐1992 1991 Japan 216% 1987-‐1991 1991 Korea 170% 1991-‐1998 1997 Switzerland 188% 1989-‐1990 GC Canada 150% 1989-‐1993 GC False Positives – booms not followed by crisis -‐None Crisis not preceded by booms, Private debt to GDP > 150% -‐None COUNTRIES WITH 150+% PRIVATE DEBT TO GDP from 2000 True Positives, Private debt to GDP > 150% Private debt to GDP Boom years Financial Crisis Norway 158% 2001 GC UK 192% 2001-‐2009 2007 US 177% 2002-‐2008 2007 Netherlands 209% 1999-‐2003 2008 Spain 220% 1999-‐2010 2008 Sweden 249% 2000-‐2002, 2007-‐2012 2008 Canada 195% 2009-‐2011 GC France 150% 2008-‐2010 GC Norway 220% 2008-‐2011 GC Appendix E False Positives, Private debt to GDP > 150% Private debt to GDP Australia 185% Korea 194% Boom years 2000-‐2009 2008-‐2011 Financial Crisis none none True Negatives, Private debt to GDP > 150% Private debt to GDP Switzerland 182% Boom years none Financial Crisis 2008 At Risk List China Private debt to GDP 168% Boom years 2009-‐present COUNTRIES WITH PRIVATE DEBT TO GDP RATIOS OF 100%-‐149% True Positives, Private debt to GDP 100%-‐149% Private debt to GDP Boom years Financial Crisis Spain 102% 1975-‐1976 1977 US 127% 1986-‐1988 1988 UK 135% 1982-‐1992 GC China 104% 1993 1998 Italy 122% 2001-‐2010 2008 France 124% 2000-‐2003 2008 Australia 115% 1982-‐1990 GC Netherlands 101% 1975-‐1982 GC Canada 124% 1979-‐1981 GC France 107% 1991-‐1992 GC False Positives, Private debt to GDP 100%-‐149% Crisis Private debt to GDP Boom years Financial China 129% 1999-‐2003 none Korea 109% 1980-‐1986 none Netherlands 140% 1988-‐1992 none Appendix E Crisis not preceded by booms, Private debt to GDP 100%-‐149% Private debt to GDP Boom years Germany 123% none Financial Crisis 2008 Note – there were five instances of crisis among these 22 countries where we had insufficient data to test our prediction hypothesis. (In fact, private debt data is not readily available for many countries prior to the last few decades. And the categories within private debt such as the different types of consumer debt are not well captured in many countries.) Crises with no private debt data for crisis period Crisis year Private debt to GDP Credit boom? Mexico 1981 19.10% n/a Turkey 1982 n/a n/a Brazil 1990 n/a n/a Brazil 1994 63.40% n/a Russia 1998 33.30% n/a All Private debt data for this study was from BIS, Long series on credit to private non-‐
financial sectors (ratios are author’s calculation) Appendix F. Other Characteristics that were tested leading up to a crisis but had little if any predictive value compared to private debt Non-‐predictive characteristics leading to a crisis Exchange Rate Financial Debt Change in GDP Foreign Reserves Current Account Balance Gross National Savings Central Bank Rate Asset Prices Equity Index GDP Investment External Debt Exports International Debt Public Debt General Inflation Trade Openness External Bank Loans Real Interest rates Short Term Debt Market Cap Net Foreign Assets Appendix G Boom duration for countries with 150+% private debt to GDP Norway '86 year 1 9 10 -‐11% -‐16% -‐17% 11% 6% 4% 22% 12% -‐3% -‐16% 3% -‐3% -‐2% 18% 10% 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 33% 31% 34% 26% 20% -‐2% -‐3% Japan '87 23% 21% 25% 28% 22% 13% Sweden '87 Switzerland '89 19% 31% 42% 46% 27% 22% 21% 17% 12% Canada '89 22% 26% 26% 24% 3% 0% 3% 12 13 -‐1% -‐5% 11 0% Korea '91 19% 28% 39% 27% 20% 21% 29% 24% 8% 3% -‐2% Netherlands '99 22% 30% 27% 26% 22% 14% 10% 11% 7% 4% 10% Spain '99 19% 33% 43% 45% 43% 42% 44% 51% 54% 49% 42% 31% 13% Sweden '00 18% 30% 24% 17% 17% 14% 6% 20% 39% 49% 34% 31% 19% UK '01 23% 34% 26% 24% 24% 21% 15% 24% 21% 8% 2% -‐1% France '01 19% 18% 19% 15% 12% 11% 15% 21% 24% 20% 17% 14% US '02 18% 17% 17% 18% 18% 20% 18% 15% 6% Norway '08 Canada '09 20% 24% 25% 19% 8% 22% 22% 18% 15% 7% >18%, 5 year percentage growth in Private debt to GDP Financial Crisis Decline in real GDP Decline in GDP Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, Long series on credit to private non-‐financial sectors, author’s calculations; Real GDP-‐ IMF, World Economic Outlook Appendix H Laeven and Valencia Crisis Listii Start of Country Crisis Albania 1994 Country Start of Crisis Country Start of Crisis Equatorial Guinea 1983 Nicaragua 1990 Algeria 1990 Eritrea 1993 Nicaragua 2000 Argentina Argentina 1980 1989 Estonia Finland 1992 1991 Niger Nigeria 1983 1991 Argentina 1995 France 2008 Nigeria 2009 Argentina Armenia 2001 1994 Georgia Germany 1991 2008 Norway Panama 1991 1988 Austria 2008 Ghana 1982 Paraguay 1995 Azerbaijan Bangladesh 1995 1987 Greece Guinea 2008 1985 Peru Philippines 1983 1983 Belarus 1995 Guinea 1993 Philippines 1997 Belgium Benin 2008 1988 Guinea-‐Bissau Guyana 1995 1993 Poland Portugal 1992 2008 Bolivia 1986 Haiti 1994 Romania 1990 Bolivia Bosnia and Herzegovina 1994 1992 Hungary Hungary 1991 2008 Russia Russia 1998 2008 Brazil 1990 Iceland 2008 Sao Tome&Principe 1992 Brazil Bulgaria 1994 1996 India Indonesia 1993 1997 Senegal Sierra Leone 1988 1990 Burkina Faso 1990 Ireland 2008 Slovak Rep 1998 Burundi Cameroon 1994 1987 Israel Italy 1977 2008 Slovenia Slovenia 1992 2008 Cameroon 1995 Jamaica 1996 Spain 1977 Cape Verde Central African Rep 1993 1976 Japan Jordan 1997 1989 Spain Sri Lanka 2008 1989 Central African Rep 1995 Kazakhstan 2008 Swaziland 1995 Chad Chad 1983 1995 Kenya Kenya 1985 1992 Sweden Sweden 1991 2008 Chile 1976 Korea 1997 Switzerland 2008 Chile China, Mainland 1981 1998 Kuwait Kyrgyz Rep 1982 1995 Tanzania Thailand 1987 1983 Colombia 1982 Latvia 1995 Thailand 1997 Colombia Congo, Dem Rep 1998 1983 Latvia Lebanon 2008 1990 Togo Tunisia 1993 1991 Congo, Dem Rep 1991 Liberia 1991 Turkey 1982 Congo, Dem Rep Congo, Rep 1994 1992 Lithuania Luxembourg 1995 2008 Turkey Uganda 2000 1994 Costa Rica Costa Rica 1987 1994 Macedonia, FYR Madagascar 1993 1988 Ukraine Ukraine 1998 2008 Cote d'Ivoire 1988 Malaysia 1997 United Kingdom 2007 Croatia Czech Republic 1998 1996 Mali Mauritania 1987 1984 United States United States 1988 2007 Denmark 2008 Mexico 1981 Uruguay 1981 Djibouti Dominican Rep 1991 2003 Mexico Mongolia 1994 2008 Uruguay Venezuela 2002 1994 Ecuador 1982 Morocco 1980 Vietnam 1997 Ecuador Egypt 1998 1980 Mozambique Nepal 1987 1988 Yemen Zambia 1996 1995 For our study, Japan 1997 was changed to 1991; Australia 1989 was added Appendix I. Debt snapshot charts converted to ‘real’ 2012 dollars. All “Real” nominal figures are author’s calculations. I-‐1. US 1919-‐1939: Great Depression Real GDP, Private and Federal debt in billion dollars $3,000 $2,500 $2,000 GDP $1,500 Private Debt $1,000 Federal Debt $500 $0 Sources-‐ GDP, Private debt-‐Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal debt-‐ treasurydirect.gov I-‐2. US 1990-‐2012: Great Recession Real GDP, Private and Federal debt in billion dollars $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 GDP Private Debt Federal Debt Sources-‐ GDP-‐ Burea of Economic Analysis; Private debt-‐ Federal Reserve; Federal debt-‐ treasurydirect.gov Appendix I I.3 US 1975-‐1995: Crisis of 1988 Real GDP, Private and Federal debt in billion dollars $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 GDP Private Debt Federal Debt Sources-‐ GDP-‐ Burea of Economic Analysis; Private debt-‐ Federal Reserve; Federal debt-‐ treasurydirect.gov I-‐4. China: 1997-‐2012 Real GDP, Private and Public debt in billion yuan ¥120,000 ¥100,000 ¥80,000 GDP ¥60,000 Private debt ¥40,000 Public debt 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 ¥0 1997 ¥20,000 Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN: Public debt-‐ The People's Bank of China; Private debt-‐ 1997-‐2007-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors; 2008-‐2012-‐ CEIC Appendix I I.5 Japan Crisis of 1991: Real GDP, Private and Public debt 1981-‐2001 in million yen ¥1,200,000,000 ¥1,000,000,000 ¥800,000,000 ¥600,000,000 ¥400,000,000 ¥200,000,000 ¥0 GDP Private debt Public debt Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐
Iinancial sectors; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff I.6 4,000,000 1,800,000 3,500,000 1,600,000 3,000,000 1,400,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 1,000,000 400,000 500,000 200,000 -‐ -‐ Indonesia GDP in billion won in billion rupiah Asian Crisis of 1997: Real GDP, Private and Public debt Indonesia Public Debt Indonesia Private Debt Korea GDP Korea Private Debt Korea Public Debt Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors, author's calculations; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff Appendix I I-‐7. UK Crisis of 2007: Real GDP, Private and Public debt in million GBP GDP Private debt Public debt 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 £3,500,000 £3,000,000 £2,500,000 £2,000,000 £1,500,000 £1,000,000 £500,000 £0 Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐Iinancial sectors; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff I-‐8. Ireland Crisis of 2008: Real GDP, Private and Public debt in million euro €600,000 €500,000 €400,000 GDP €300,000 Private debt €100,000 Public debt €0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 €200,000 Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐
Iinancial sectors; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff Appendix I I.9 Portugal Crisis of 2008: Real GDP, Private and Public debt in million euro € 500,000 € 400,000 GDP € 300,000 € 200,000 Private debt € 100,000 Public debt € -‐ Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐
Iinancial sectors; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff I.10 Greece Crisis of 2008: Real GDP, Private and Public debt in million euro € 400,000 € 350,000 € 300,000 € 250,000 € 200,000 € 150,000 € 100,000 € 50,000 € -‐ GDP Private debt Public debt Sources-‐ GDP-‐ UN; Private debt-‐ BIS, long series on credit to private non-‐
Iinancial sectors; Public debt-‐ Reinhart&Rogoff i ReinhartandRogoff.com ii Luc Laeven and Fabian Valencia, Systemic Banking Crises Database: An Update, WP/12/163, Table A-‐1, June 2012

the Complete Appendices - Debt

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