telecommunications macro-sector2014-2017

Transcrição

TEM Ecosystem:
Situation and evolution of the Portuguese
telecommunications
macro-sector 2014-2017
altran.pt
Altran Portugal, SA - Av. Forças Armadas n.125, 3, 1600-079 Lisboa Portugal
Tel: +351 210 331 600
e-mail: [email protected]
© Altran Innovación S.L.
Photographs Fotolia: © vege, © Syda Productions, © Victoria, ©
frank peters, © Andrey Armyagov, © HaywireMedia.
3
Content
1. Introduction........................................................ 6
1.1. Survey’s aim
........................................................
............................................
7
.................................................
9
1.2. Ecosystem description
1.3. Survey’s structure
7
2. Telecom macro-sector Analysis ........................... 11
2.1. Devices
............................................................
2.2. Network
............................................................25
2.3. Services
............................................................
35
.......................................................
47
...........................................................
58
2.4. Applications
2.5. Contents
13
Altran report of the Portuguese telecomunications macro-sector
4
Foreword
I
t’s a great pleasure for me to present the first edition of the TEM (Telecom&Media)
Ecosystem Report, as it is an interesting reflection of the main players perspective
about the market trends and its evolution. Therefore, I would like to start by saying
“Thank you” to those who have accepted to contribute with their opinions and future
predictions.
The idea to build up a TEM Ecosystem Report focused on the Portuguese Market,
has started in June 2013 during a Steering Meeting of the Altran Telecom Industry,
in London city inspired by London Bridge view. Back to Portugal, and after some internal
discussions about how to do it, we said: “Yes definetly, we must do this!”
The main objective of this Report is to analyse the emerging trends in the TEM market in
Portugal. This report was also carried out to understand the future outlook in terms of New
Business Models, New Business Strategies and the key coming Investment areas for the TEM
market in Portugal. Another ambition of the study was to find out more about the market
players’ strategy: Operators, Equipment Manufacturers, Software Product Companies,
Content Producers and Distributors, and ICT Services Companies.
For a deeper analysis the Report was divided into 5 market segments: Devices, Network,
Services, Applications and Content. Each market segment has been analysed through 7
topics: Main Events, Offering, Players, Business Models, Business Strategies, Key Competitor
Factors and Key Investments areas.
According to the interviewees many challenges and opportunities have been raised for the
next four years. Synthetically, I would like to highlight some topics with significant impact
in our Industry till 2017:
• Most relevant business models for telecom operators will be based on flat rates of voice
and data, models based on service packages tailored upon market segment, and pricing
models based on service quality and speed.• Business models based on service subscription
(with embedded advertising) are those that will have the greatest impact on the pay TV and
video market in Portugal.
• The investment in media and entertainment companies to enhance telecom operator’s
connectivity services with value-added contents will be the most relevant investment.
• The strategy focus on customer experience will be the most valuable to compete in the
market of mobile applications.
• OTT TV communication (28% of weighted value) will be the most used communication
service. For network professionals, Fixed Ultra-fast Broadband will be the main communication
service, with a weighted value of 31%.
5
• Google, followed by Netflix will be the leaders of digital entertainment in Portugal.
• Freemium Model and Service Subscription will be the 2 most relevant business models for APPs.
• The ability to adapt the content to different digital platforms and a strong brand positioning will
be the most critical Key Competitive Factors in the Portuguese content market.
• Offering IPTV with pay TV and video on multiple devices is the most valuable business strategy for
the market of pay TV and video.
• Professional video, such as cinema, series and TV programs, is leading the industrial transformation
as the main offer for the next for years in Portugal’s content segment.
• The content generated by users in Social Media will be within the top five most used contents in
Portugal.
• Business models based on “Pay per consumption” of digital content are those that will have the
greatest impact of the market of content aggregators in Portugal.
Looking for the items above, I may say that Portugal has today one of the most advanced
infrastructures in the world, fix and mobile, and what’s coming next is: Innovation, Customer
Experience, Convergence, New business models and New OTT players.
Altran as partner of APDC (Associação Portuguesa para o Desenvolvimento das Comunicações), will
distribute this Report in the 24th ADPC Congress. The main conclusions of this Report will be deeper
discussed during the event throughout two main sessions with key market players.
A final word for you, report reader: as I referred before, this Report started as a project in June
2013, meanwhile many things happened thanks to market dynamic where we are, new brands, new
offers, new partnerships, new regulation and also companies merged which was the case of ZON
and Optimus resulting in a new company called NOS. For a better data accuracy we have decided to
analyse ZON and Optimus as separate companies. We promise for the next edition of this Report to
have NOS as a single company.
I hope you enjoy the Report and make it useful in your jobs and companies.
See you soon,
Bruno Casadinho
ALTRAN PORTUGAL
Head of Telecom & Media
6
1.
Introduction
Informe Altran sobre el ecosistema Telco 2014-2017
7
1. Introduction
1.1.Survey’s aim
ALTRAN shows its huge interest in knowing and generating knowledge about evolution, status and future direction of
the telecommunications macro-sector in Portugal with the development and launch of a general survey in order to better
understand the Portuguese ecosystem. Therefore, a team from Altran has worked for several months on this study of the
macro sector which has resulted in the “Situation and evolution of the Portuguese telecommunications macro-sector 20142017” report.
For the report, Altran has based itself on the opinions gathered from interviews with senior managers belonging to companies
across the value chain macro-sector and the expertise of our company.
1.2. Ecosystem description
Altran sets the following telecommunications macro-sector’s ecosystem, where it has identified five major industrial areas
(devices, networks, services, applications and contents), each one with its sub-areas and components. Different actors, with
more or less involvement in this ecosystem are identified in one or few of the mentioned areas.
Areas of the TEM Macrosector
Key Aspects
Devices
2
Mobile Tech Suppliers
CPE
Radio Access
Fixed Devices
STBs
Home Entertainment
Devices
PCs
Connected TV
Fixed Phones
Mobile / Fixed Suppliers
Aggregation networks
Transport
Core transmission (IP/
SDH/ATM/DWDM)
Enablers:
4
Services
Mobile Communications
Mobile voice
Internet access: Mobile
broadband
Fixed Tech Suppliers
CPE (Customer Premises
equipment)
Fix Access
Fixed Communications
Fixed voice
Internet: Fixed broadband
Mobile Entertainment
Mobile Tv
Fixed Entertainment
Cabel TV
Pay TV (+VoD)
Cross / Transversal
Suppliers
Signaling and Control
SDP (Service Development Platforms)
Industry associations
OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer):
Samsung, Nokia, Sony
OS developers (Apple,
Microsoft, Google,…)
3
Networks
Mobile Devices
Smartphones
Tablets
Nano-tables
Netbooks
Mobile / Cell phones
Laptops
OS (Operating system)
Players
TEM Macrosector Ecsystem
1
Service Platforms
Payment, Billing & SM,
Conditional Access &
DRM, Video encoding &
delivery, customer management, BSS, content
discovery, etc.
Cloud: PaaS & IaaS
Standard and Consultative
Network Equipment
Vendors
Network Service
Suppliers
Network Infrastructure
Integrators
Organization
Applicactions
(Mobile) App Stores
Pay TV
Mobile TV
Cable TV
Information & utilities
Games
IM
Social Networks
Music
OTT Video
IPTV
VoIP
News
Mobile marketing
Advertising
Content
Professional Content
Audio
Video
Advertising
Publishing (News &
Books)
Games
eBooks
UGC
Music
News
Social media
Video
Enterp. App Marketplaces
CRM, ERP, E-mail, Security
Business Intelligence
Office Apps
Cloud
Support technology
SaaS
Billing & payments
eCommerce & transactions
Access services
European Commission
Full Telecom Syc
Providers
Mobile Virtual Network
Operators (OMVs)
Cable Operators
IT Equipment & Platform
Vendors
Cloud Providers &
Integrators
5
National Regulatory Authorities
Application SW
Developers / Integrators
Social Network Providers
& Platforms
TV OTT y VoIP
ecommerce
Cloud Hosting
Enterprises
New Agencies
TV Operators
Game Aggr. & Suppliers
Book Platforms
Multimedia Container
Provider
Content Creators
Game Developers
Audiovisual Content
Generators/ Producers
Macro-Industry Structure
8
Macro-Industry Structure
Devices include all kinds of fixed and mobile equipment and terminals that enable users’ online experience. Included in this
group are the Operating Systems (OS) developed for each of these devices.
Networks section includes all those elements related to the supply of fixed and mobile connectivity that compose the
telecommunications networks (core transmission, accesses, CPEs, Service Development and Management Platforms, etc.),
which are the key infrastructure of the ecosystem.
As per Services Area, it comprises all the services related to fixed and mobile communications, including fixed and mobile
voice, fixed and mobile Internet, TV services and service platforms.
Included in the Applications Section are all those software and programs that enable users’ tasks, from mobile apps to
business applications and platforms. Moreover, this section also includes all the applications used for financial purposes,
such as eCommerce and electronic transactions.
Finally, Contents Area covers all the content value chain, from creation to distribution. In order to guarantee a better
understanding of this sector, this section is deeper divided into “Content generated by professionals” and “User-Generated
9
1.3.Survey’s structure
To elaborate the “Survey for 2017 Ecosystem”, the five previously described areas have been intersected to the 7 traversal
topics considered key to analyze the macro-sector (Events, Offering, Players, Business Models, Business Strategies, Key
Competitive Factors and Investments).
This way, the survey is structured according to the following matrix:
Topic
s
Areas
Devices
Networks
Services
Applications
Contents
(T)
(R)
(S)
(A)
(C)
1. Events
1T
1R
1S
1A
1C
2. Ofering
2T
2R
2S
2A
2C
3. Players
3T
3R
3S
3A*
3C
4. Business Models
4T
4R
4S
4A*
4C
5. Strategies
5T
5R
5S
5A*
5C
6. Key Competitive Factors
6T
6R
6S
6A*
6C
7. Investments
7T
7R
7S
7A
7C
(*)Questions divided into App and TV
In the following points each of the seven traversal topics is enlisted and described:
1. Recent Events. facts, business achievements and milestones that have taken place in recent months and that may be
of relevance for the evolution of the macro sector
2.Offering. set of products, services and solutions with which the ecosystem’s players compete in the different markets.
3.Players. elevant actors (vendors, manufacturers, suppliers, integrators, developers, telecom operators, etc.) that operate in each industrial area.
4. Business Models. efinition and description of the key pillars through which the players build, distribute, and capture
value. Bearing in mind that business models are built from different components, this analysis will be mainly focused
on revenue stream models.
5. Business Strategies. competitive strategies defined and implemented by the different actors of the ecosystem to
effectively compete in the markets.
6. Key Competitive Factors Competencies and capabilities those are critical for a business organization to effectively
compete and succeed in the current context.
7.Investments Investment strategies likely to be implemented in each area, either by players currently operating in that
specific area, or by players that directly or indirectly participate in that given area or in other areas.
In some intersections of Areas and topics, the survey focuses on specific sub-areas (i.e. Telecom Services, Mobile Apps, TV/
Video Apps, etc.) with the only aim of highlighting specific issues that might require further and deeper analysis (i.e. business
models, business strategies).
10
11
2.
Telecom
macro-sector
Analysis
Informe Altran sobre el ecosistema Telco 2014-2017
12
2. Telecom
macro-sector
Analysis
Devices
Network
Services
Applications
Contents
13
2.1.Devices
Device
s
2.1.1 Events (1T)
According to the opinion of the interviewees, news related to Microsoft acquisition of Nokia’s Mobile Business (September
2013) represent the most relevant event for the evolution of the Portuguese telecommunications, media, and technology
macro-industry in the next 4 years.
On the other hand, Nokia gives up its main division, focusing on telecommunications networks which will represent its main
business unit from now on.
Ranked in the second position, with 9% of weighted answers, the professionals of the industry place the development of a new
fingerprint scanner integrated in the new iPhones.
The next three positions have the same weighted value, gathering the launch of the new Samsung’s tablet with dual operating
system that combines Android and Windows, the decision of the European Union to take part in the dispute between Apple
and Samsung over patents infringements and the launch of Firefox OS Open for mobile by Mozilla.
14
Microsoft acquisition of Nokia´s Mobile Business is considered as the most relevant event
related to the segment of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) and with highest impact
on the future of the TEM macro industry, according to the opinion of the interviewees.
Microsoft agrees a deal to buy Nokia’s Mobile
Business for 5,4 billion Euros (3,8 billion Euros
for the division plus 1,6 billion Euros for license patents) (September 2013)
12
Apple develops a new technology integrated
into its new iPhone 5s: fingerprint scanner
called the Touch ID (September 2013)
9
Samsung introduces ATIV Q, a dual OS tablet
that combines Android 4.2 and windows 8
(June 2013)
8
European Union takes part to the dispute
between Apple and Samsung wover design and
technical patents infringements, threatening
Samsung with billionaire potential fines (September 2013)
8
Mozilla launches Firefox OS Open for mobile,
aiming at challenging Apple and Google with
the open Web (February 2013)
8
T1 Recent events with the highest impact on the future of the industry for the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base
100. Sample size: 12 interviewees answered to this question.
2.1.2. Offering (2T)
The devices industry is experiencing increased competitiveness: on one side, traditional smartphone and tablet manufacturers
have been extending their offering; on the other, new players are vertically integrating in this area of the value chain by
progressively shifting their business towards mobile devices.
Within this context, Smartphones and Tablets represent, according to the opinion of the interviewed professionals, the most
used devices for communication services and applications consumption in the next four years. These two segments accounts
for the 55% of the interviewed professionals.
The leaders of the industry place in third position of the ranking Phablets –touch screen devices with more than 12.5 inches - ,
with 14% of total weighted answers, followed by Connected and Smart TVs which reach 12% of weighted answers.
In the last positions of the weighted ranking the leaders of the industry place PCs, as relevant devices for communication
services and applications consumption in the near future.
15
Cross-industry
Deepening the analysis into the different industrial segments, it has to be highlighted that the interviewees
generally showed homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless of the segment or industrial sector they
belong to.
Nevertheless, it is worth considering the opinion of Network and Contents professionals, which slightly differs
from the rest of the interviewed sample, giving more importance to Connected and Smart TVs (second and first
place respectively).
Smartphones and Tablets represent, according to the opinion of the interviewed opinion
leaders, the two most used devices in the next four years in the Portuguese market.
Smartphones
33
Tablets
22
Phablets
14
Connected and SmartTV’s
PC’s
12
6
T2.1 Most used devices for communication services and applications consumption in the next four years. Weighted scores
normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question.
16
Regarding the Operating Systems segment, the battle for market dominance continues to represent one of the main hot topics
of the industry. With this in mind, Android has been selected by the industry experts as the one likely to be the dominant
player, in terms of shares, of the Portuguese market in the next four years. Android will suffer tough competition from iOS, as
the interviewees placed it in second position of the ranking.
Other OS that will cover the role of relevant challengers in the future landscape of the Portuguese ecosystem are, in order,
Windows Phone and Chrome OS.
Android, iOS, and Windows Phone are considered the OS with the largest market shares in
the next four year in the Portuguese landscape, followed by Blackberry 10 OS and Chrome OS,
according to the opinion of the opinion leaders that participated to the questionnaire.
Android
40
iOS
31
Windows Phone 8
15
Blackberry 10 OS
Chrome OS
5
3
T2.2 OS for smartphones and tablets with largest market share in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question.
17
Cross-industry
Deepening the analysis into the different industrial segments, it has to be highlighted that the interviewees
generally showed homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless of the segment or industrial sector they belong
to.
Total
Devices
5
15
40
44
56
31
Android
Android
iOS
Windows Phone 8
Windows Phone 8
Blackberry 10 OS
T2.2 OS for smartphones and tablets with largest market share in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Comparison among global and devices areas results.
18
2.1.3. Players (3T)
According to the opinions gathered in the survey, the interviewed professionals consider Samsung as the OEM that will hold
the market leadership in the next four years in the Portuguese sector of devices, concretely smartphones and tablets, followed
by Apple in the second position. These two competitors account for 64% of total weighted scores.
After these two players, the leaders of the industry consider that LG, Huawei, and Sony will hold a position of relevant
challengers in the Portuguese marketplace, as they have been selected respectively in the third, fourth, and fifth position of
the top Portuguese ranking.
According to the opinion of the industry professionals, Samsung is the OEM that will hold the largest
market share in the Portuguese market of devices in the next four years, followed by Apple.
Samsung
35
Apple
29
LG
9
Huawei
9
Sony
8
T3.1 OEMs (smartphones and tablets) with largest market share in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
19
Shifting the analysis to the segment of digital entertainment devices and consoles, the last 12 months have been extremely
relevant, as the market rebounded after 4 years of decline, and officially entered in the Next Generation of Game Consoles era.
This turnaround has been mainly driven by the renewal of the product offerings of the majority of the players.
In this context, the results of the survey show that Apple is considered by the industrial leaders as the manufacturer that will
hold the largest market shares in the digital entertainment devices segment in the next four years.
Apple will suffer tough competition from Samsung, which has been selected as the second most relevant player in the future
Portuguese market segment of digital entertainment.
The interviewees place Sony in third position, while Google and Microsoft (Nokia) close the top 5 ranking of the devices and
consoles manufacturers with largest market shares in the Portuguese ecosystem in the forthcoming future.
Apple will be, according to the opinion of the interviewed actors, the player with largest
market share in the segment of digital entertainment devices and consoles in Portugal.
Apple
25
Samsung
24
Sony
19
Google
Microsoft (Nokia)
10
9
T3.2 OEMs (digital entertainment devices and consoles) with largest market share in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized
on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question.
Cross-industry
The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sub-sectors shows a certain degree of
homogeneity of opinions, regardless of the segment to which the actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth
highlighting the following differences: professionals from the network sector place Samsung (with 30% of
weighted answers) as the main player in the next four years, they also consider Huawei (10% of weighted
network sector answers) in the top 5 of devices and consoles manufacturers.
20
2.1.4. Business Models (4T)
The business model for actors operating in devices sector is essentially based on the device itself, being it fixed or mobile,
and its specific way to complement the offer: either by developing in-house a set of additional functionalities (Operating
System, Access to Apps and Digital Contents, etc.) or by establishing strategic alliances with other players along the value
chain, raising in this way the value of the terminal.
For all these reasons the main objective of the devices manufacturers as well as of the other players of the value chain is to
find the model that creates as much value as possible and maximizes value capture and retention, thus enhancing higher
revenues.
In this context, and looking at survey’s results, the leaders of the industry consider the integration between the device and
the app store/platform and Multi-device Operating Systems as the most relevant business models for devices (smartphones
and tablets) OEMs in the next four years.
The interviewees place in a second layer the integration between the device and the Operating System, and “Razon Blade”
models based on low prices in order to increase sales of a complementary and consumable product.
The ranking of top 5 selections is closed by revenue model based on advertising.
Integration between the device and the app store/platform, Multi-device Operating Systems, and the
integration between the device and the operating system are likely to be the most relevant business
models for OEMs in the next four years, according to the opinion of the interviewed professionals.
Integration between the device and the app store/ platform
16
Multi-device Operating Systems
16
Integration between the device and the Operating System
12
“Razor Blade” model (low prices in order to increase sales of a complementary and consumable product)
12
Revenue model based on advertising
11
T4 Most relevant business models for smartphones and tablets OEMs in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base
Cross-industry
The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sub-sectors shows a certain degree of heterogeneity of
opinions. In the devices sector the revenue model based on advertising is placed in first position with 42% of respondents,
followed by multi-device operating systems and integration between the device and the Operating System (33% and 25%
respectively).
In the network sector, its professionals place revenue based on advertising, “Razor Blade” model and “Other” in the first
position, with 16% of total weighted responses each one. Integration between inter-compatible smart devices is chosen by
11% of professionals in the network sector. The top 5 is closed by Dual or multiple Operating System devices and Integration
between inter-compatible smart devices (9% each one).
21
2.1.5. Business Strategies (5T)
Devices industry has been experiencing fast growth, representing an attractive business opportunity for different players.
Unlike in the past, when traditional manufacturers were the only ones to produce and sell terminals, the appearance in the
market of smartphones and tablets attracted other actors, whose core business was different. It is the case of the new global
entrants like Apple, Google, and Amazon; network and technology vendors like Ericsson, Huawei, and ZTE; and even business
applications providers like Microsoft.
According to the opinion of the industry experts, focusing on emerging technologies such as AMOLED, retina display, quadcore CPUs, 64-bit software, flexible screens, fingerprints scanning, etc. is likely to be the most relevant business strategy for
OEM to successfully compete in the Portuguese marketplace in the following four years.
The second option selected by the interviewed actors is represented by offering a wide portfolio of OSs and applications,
followed in the third and fourth position by alliances with mobile operators to strengthen their presence and the creation of
extended value networks of device manufacturers, OSs providers, and mobile operators.
The top five is closed by alliances with content providers, which represents 8% of total weighted responses.
The industry experts outline focus on emerging technologies as the most relevant
business strategy for OEMs in the next four years in the Portuguese Marketplace.
Focus on emerging technologies (AMOLED, retina display, quad-core
CPU’s, 64-bit software, flexible screens, fingerprint scanning, etc.)
17
Offer a wide portfolio of OSs and applications
14
Aliances with mobile operators to strengthen their presence
13
“Razor Blade” model (low prices in order to increase sales of a complementary and consumable product)
13
Alliances with content providers
8
T5 Most valuable business strategies for smartphones and tablets OEMs in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base
Cross-industry
Deepening the analysis into the different industrial segments, it has to be highlighted that the interviewees generally
showed homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless of the segment or industrial sector to which they belong to.
Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting the introduction of focusing on high range devices (smartphones, tablets, “phablets”,
“wearables”) in the top 5 of the most valuable business strategies for smartphones and tablets OEMs in the next four years
for the professionals in the devices and network sector.
22
2.1.6. Key Competitive Factors (6T)
According to the results of the survey, technological innovation is outlined by 21% of the interviewees as the most critical
Key Competitive Factor for devices (smartphone and tablets) manufacturers to compete in the Portuguese marketplace in the
next four years.
In second position the opinion leaders of the industry place, with 16% of total weighted answers, strong brand positioning
as critical KCF for Original Equipment Manufacturers, followed in the third position of the ranking by alliances with multiple
devices manufacturers to increase Operating System penetration.
The top 5 ranking is closed by operational excellence and alliances between OEM and mobile operators (13% of total weighted
responses each one), representing the last options within the most critical Key Competitive Factors to compete in the devices
Portuguese market segment.
Technological innovation is outlined by the actors of the industry as the most critical KCF for OEMs
to successfully compete in the next four years in the Portuguese market segment of devices.
Technilogical innovation
21
Strong brand positioning
Aliances with multiple devices manufacturers to increase Operating
System penetration
16
14
Aliances with mobile operators to strengthen
their presence
13
Operational excellence
13
T6 Most critical Key Competitive Factors for OEMs in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14
interviewees answered to this question.
Cross-industry
The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sub-sectors shows a certain degree of homogeneity
of opinions, regardless the segment to which the actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting the introduction
of financial capacity in the top 5 of the most critical Key Competitive Factors for OEMs in the next four years for the
professionals in the devices and network sector. Moreover it is remarkable that professionals in the services sector consider
capabilities for the management of mergers and acquisitions as a top five KCF for OEMs, placing it in fourth position.
23
2.1.7. Investments (7T)
As mentioned before, the traditional device manufacturers are not the only players offering devices and Operating Systems
anymore: other players, whose core business was not directly related to the manufacturing of devices (i.e. Network and
Technology Vendors, Business Applications Providers, etc.), are integrating vertically into this attractive area. As a consequence,
internal competitiveness is rising, with players undertaking focused investments to develop and implement their strategies
and to position themselves in the devices marketplace.
In this context, the industry experts that participated to the survey consider that traditional devices manufacturers will
invest in order to integrate forward in the value chain and get positions in services, applications and content. With the
same weighted value (20% of total weighted responses) industry professionals believe that new global players will continue
investing heavily to offer terminals with the latest technologies and advanced OSs. These two trends are the most relevant
investments strategies likely to occur in the Portuguese devices sector in the next four years.
In third place, according to the opinion of 14% of the interviewees, OSs, services and applications providers will invest to
acquire devices manufacturers.
The option of players from other areas of the macro-sector acquiring small manufacturers occupies the fourth position, while
minor relevance has been given to Asian devices manufacturers investing in the development of their own OSs, which has
been placed in the last position of the top 5 ranking by the industry leaders that answered to this question.
The industry experts overall believe that traditional devices manufacturers will invest in order to
integrate forward in the value chain and get positions in services, applications and content. With the
same weighted value (20% of total interviewees) industry professionals believe that new global players
will continue investing heavily to offer terminals with the latest technologies and advanced OSs.
Traditional devices manufacturers will invest in order to integrate
forward in the value chain and get positions in seervices,
applications and content
20
New global players will continue investing heavily to offer terminals with
the latest technologies and advanced OSs
20
OSs, services and applications providers will invest to acquire
devices manufacturers
14
Players from other areas of the macro-sector will acquire small
manufacturers)
Asian devices manufacturers will invest in the development
of their own OSs
9
7
T7 Most relevant investment strategies for OEMs likely to occur in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Cross-industry
Deepening the analysis into the different industrial segments, it has to be highlighted that the interviewees generally showed
homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless of the segment or industrial sector to which they belong to. Nevertheless, the
results obtained from devices sector differs from the rest of the industry, where 42% of the professionals who answered this
question consider the investment of application developers to develop in-house capabilities in order to offer their own devices
and OSs, as the main investment strategy in the Portuguese market in the next four years.
24
The interviewees generally showed homogeneous opinions on the topic,
regardless of the segment or industrial sector they belong to.
Total
Network
20
Services
19
16
25
8
36
11
39
20
9
11
17
14
39
15
Traditional devices manufacturers
will invest in order to integrate
forward in the value chain and get
positions in services, apllications
and content
and content
and content
New global players will continue
investing heavily to offer terminals
with the latest technologies and
advanced OSs
advanced OSs
advanced OSs
OSs, services and applications
providers will invest to acquire
Players from other areas of the
macro-sector will acquire small
manufacturers
manufacturers
manufacturers
Others
Others
Others
Comparison among global, network and services areas results.
The opinion of the professionals belonging to the devices sector differs from the rest
of the industry: in fact, they believe that the main investment strategy for OEMs in the
Portuguese market for the next four years is the investment of application developers
to develop in-house capabilities in order to offer their own devices and OSs.
Applications developers, both of consumer and business segments, will
invest to develop in-house capabilities to offer their own devices and OSs
42
Traditional devices manufacturers will invest in the development
of their own OSs
Asian devices manufacturers will invest in the development
of their own OSs
33
25
Devices sector results.
25
2.2.Network
Netwo
rk
2.2.1. Events (1R)
According to the professionals of the macro-industry that participated to the survey, the event with the highest impact on
the evolution of the Portuguese network sector is the one related to the sale of Nokia´s mobile business to Microsoft for 5.4
billion euros, following Ericsson in networks focus.
Other relevant event with high potential impact on the future of the industry, according to the opinion of the interviewees, is
the one related to Huawei´s plan to introduce fifth-generation mobile technology for commercial service by 2020, with speeds
100 times current 4G networks. With the same weighted value answers (12%), industry professionals identify the fact that 4G
mobile broadband already covers 80% of the Portuguese population in the top three events with highest impact on the future
of the industry for the next four years.
Interviewees also mention, as a recent event likely to have certain relevance on the evolution of the European ecosystem, the
investigation, carried out by the European Union, of Huawei and ZTE for violating anti-dumping and anti-subsidy guidelines,
claiming the telecom vendors are allowed to offer low prices unfairly subsidized by Chinese government.
The ranking is closed by the fact that Cisco Systems acquires cyber-security firm Sourcefire for 2.7 billion euros.
26
The sale of Nokia´s mobile business to Microsoft and Huawei´s plan to introduce fifth-generation
mobile technology for commercial service by 2020, have been outlined by the actors of the industry as
the recent events likely to have the highest impact on the evolution of the European network sector.
Nokia sells its mobile business to Microsoft for 5,4 billion euros,
following Ericsson in networks focus (September 2013)
16
Huawei says it plans to introduce fifth-generation mobile technology for
commercial service by 2020, with speeds 100 times current 4G networks
(August 2013)e “Galaxy Gear” Septiembre de 2013)
12
4G mobile broadband already covers 80% of the Portuguese population
(August 2013)
12
The European Union investigates Huawei and ZTE for violating anti-dumping and anti-subsidy guidelines, claim the telecom vendors are allowed
to offer low prices unfairly subsized by Chinese government (May 2013
Cisco Systems acquires cyber-securiy firmSourcefire
for 2,7 billion euros (July 2013)
11
10
R1 Recent events with the highest impact on the future of the industry for the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base
Cross-industry
Grouping and analyzing the results by industrial area of belonging of the interviewed actors, no significant
discrepancies have been detected with respect to the global results, showing a certain degree of homogeneity
of the opinions. However, it should be noted that the services sector professionals identify the fact that Huawei
gives up US market, and announces that it will expand its services in Europe as an important event with high
impact on the future of the macro-sector.
27
2.2.2. Offering (2R)
The whole sample of interviewed professionals believes that the most used network in the Portuguese panorama in 2017 will
be FTTx broadband fixed network and 4G/LTE mobile network.
In third position, interviewees highlighted HFC/DOCSIS broadband fixed network, while they selected 3G/3.5G mobile network
as fourth option.
In the last position of the top 5 ranking the pool of professionals that participated to the survey placed xDSL access broadband
fixed network, reaching 6% of total weighted answers to these question.
Cross-industry
homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless the segment or industrial sector to which they belong to.
FTTx broadband fixed network and 4G/LTE mobile network will be the most used networks
in Portugal in the next four years, according to the opinion of the industry experts.
FTTx broadband fixed network
33
4G/LTE (Long Term Evolution) mobile network
33
HFC/DOCSIS broadband fixed network
19
3G/3.5G mobile network
xDSL acess broadband fixed network
9
6
R.2 Most used network for communication in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
28
2.2.3. Players (3R)
One of the big concerns surrounding the networking sector currently is the macroeconomic environment in which the
customers, enterprises and service providers operate. Business organizations over the past year have become extremely
cautious with their network spending. This has impacted the top-line growth of the networking sector as a whole, so growth
has been slight for network equipment suppliers.
In this context, the actors that participated in the survey overall believe that the network equipment provider with the most
relevant role in the development and deployment of networks in the next four years is likely to be Huawei (28% weighted
responses).
In the second position of the ranking the interviewees place Ericsson, followed by Cisco. The top three players gather 75% of
total weighted answers to this topic. After these three leaders, the professionals of the industry mention Alcatel-Lucent as
relevant player in the future Portuguese network sector.
In the last position of the top 5 it can be found ZTE, which is considered to play a marginal role in the future Portuguese
ecosystem.
According to the opinion of the industry experts, Huawei is likely to be the network
equipment provider with the most relevant role in the development and deployment
of networks in the next four years, followed by Ericsson and Cisco.
Huawei
28
Ericsson
26
Cisco
21
Alcatel-Lucent
ZTE
10
8
R3 Players with the most relevant role in the development and deployment of networks in the next four years. Weighted scores
29
Cross-industry
The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sectors shows a certain degree of homogeneity of opinions,
regardless the segment to which the actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth considering the opinion of network opinion
leaders, which slightly differs from the rest of the interviewed sample, giving more importance to Ericsson (placed in first
position in this industry) versus Huawei which is situated in second place.
Additionally, for professionals in this industry segment, ZTE acquires more relevance, being the third player with most
relevant role in the development and deployment of networks in the next four years.
The interviewees generally showed homogeneous opinions on the topic,
regardless of the segment or industrial sector to which they belong to
Total
Network
8
7
8
28
26
18
10
6
21
26
14
29
Huawei
Huawei
Ericsson
Ericsson
Cisco
Cisco
Alcatel-Lucen
Alcatel-Lucen
ZTE
ZTE
Others
Others
normalized on base 100. Comparison among global and network areas results.
30
2.2.4. Business Models (4R)
The business models for Networks Equipment Vendors are characterized by increased convergence of products and services
(mainly network equipment, network services and network infrastructure integration services). This way, those firms whose
traditional core business was the supply of network equipment, are inclined to either acquire or merge with companies that
provide network services, or develop and offer these services in-house.
Having said this, the interviewed professionals believe that the most relevant business model for network equipment suppliers
in the next four years will be a subscription-base model for the use of software in network management equipment (SDN).
In order of relevance, the following option selected by the leaders of the industry is the business model based on “Turn-key”
network solutions (equipment provider + primary focus on managed network services and consultancy).
In third position, industry experts highlighted participation at all stages (design, engineering, deployment and management)
for 4G/LTE under network sharing models (joint-venture with mobile operators) as relevant business model in the Portuguese
network industrial sector.
The top three business models are very closed each other since the first one has 25% of weighted answers, only 2 percentage
points over the third. It is remarkable that these models nearly double those placed in fourth and fifth position.
The top three business models outlined by opinion leaders as the most relevant business model for network
equipment suppliers for the next four years in the Portuguese Marketplace are very closed each other.
Subscription-based model for the use of software in network
management equipment
25
“Turn-key” network solutions provider (equipment provider + primary
focus on managed network services and consultancy)
24
Participation at all stages (design, engineering, deployment and management) for 4G/LTE under network sharing models (joint-venture with
mobile operatores)
22
Model based on ensuring end to end QoS from virtualized data servers
related to cloud services
Participation at all stages (design, engineering, deployment and
management) for FTTX networks under public-private models
13
11
R4 Most relevant business models for network equipment suppliers in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
31
Cross-industry
homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless of the segment or industrial sector they belong to.
It is interesting to notice how the group of network professionals place ensuring end to end QoS from virtualized data servers
related to cloud services in third position with a weighted value of 23%, setting participation at all stages for 4G/LTE under
network sharing models back to the sixth position and reducing its weighted answers to 13%.
Another remarkable difference is how services opinion leaders identify participation at all stages for 4G/LTE under network
sharing models as the most relevant business models for network equipment suppliers in the next four years with 33%
weighted responses.
2.2.5. Business Strategies (5R)
As a result of Global economic instability, intense competitive pressure, and decreased spending by communication services
providers, network equipment vendors have been driven to streamline and refocus their business strategies in order to
maintain profits.
The most valuable strategy for network equipment providers to compete in the Portuguese panorama in the next four years,
with 18% of weighted asnswers, is that one focus on becoming an equipment provider with a complete portfolio (by means of
alliances, mergers and acquisitions).
At a lower level, the specialization in a specific network segment is mentioned as the second most valuable strategy by the
interviewed sample.
Finally, the top 5 ranking of most valuable business strategies for network vendors is closed by those strategies focused on
technology innovation, differential equipment offering based on the flexible network capacity and the necessary software
licenses (SDN), and being a cost leader in network equipment.
Becoming an equipment provider with a complete portfolio is believed to be the most valuable
business strategy for network equipment providers to compete in the Portuguese panorama
in the next four years, according to the opinion of the experts of the industry.
Become equipment provider with a complete portfolio (by means
of alliances, mergers and acquisitions)
18
Specialize in being the technological leader
in a specific network segment
15
Focus on technology innovation
11
Focus on a differencial equipment offering based on the flexible network
capacity and the necessary software licenses (SDN)
11
Focus on being cost leader ($Network costs per user)
in network equipment
10
R5 Most valuable business strategies for network equipment suppliers in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base
32
Cross-industry
Deepening the analysis at sectorial level, it has to be noticed that the opinion of the respondents has been generally
homogeneous, regardless the industrial area to which the different actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning some
discrepancies of opinions of the network and services sector, where strategies focus on technology innovation loose weighted
value, leaving the top five ranking.
For the professionals interviewed in the network sector, strategies focus on a differential equipment offering based on the
flexible network capacity and the necessary software licenses (SDN) are considered as the most valuable strategies. These
interviewees identify providing turn-key network solutions, maintenance, evolution, and managed network services to the
operators as the second main strategy. They also introduce two new strategies in the top five: provide enterprise applications
services and IT management, and provide funding to network operators.
Interviewees in the services group place the specialization in a specific network segment in first position, followed by the
specialization in proper management of networks and platforms, leveraging on the continuous convergence of networks and
services.
2.2.6. Key Competitive Factors (6R)
According to the results of the survey, the Key Competitive Factor considered by the pool of industrial leaders as the most
critical for network equipment vendors to successfully compete in the next four years in the Portuguese network sector is
technological innovation.
Right after, the interviewed actors mention the ability to provide a comprehensive and integrated solution of equipment +
network integration + network operation service, with a weighted value of 20%.
Financial capacity for investments and solid alliances with mobile operators have been also outlined as relevant KCF, as
they have been placed in third and fourth position respectively, while capabilities for the management of strategic alliances
obtained a marginal score ending in the last position of the top 5 ranking.
The most critical KCF for network equipment suppliers in the next four years will be, according
to the interviewees, technological innovation and ability to provide a comprehensive and
integrated solution of equipment + network integration + network operation service.
Technological innovation
23
Ability to provide a comprehensive and integrated solution of equipment
+ network integration + network operation service
20
12
Financial capacity for investments
11
Solid alliances with mobile operatores
Capabilities for the management of strategic alliances
8
R6 Most critical Key Competitive Factors for network equipment suppliers in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on
base 100. Sample size: 13 interviewees answered to this question.
33
Cross-industry
Looking at the results of the different industries, it is of interest to highlight the different opinion of services professionals
with respect to the whole consolidate scores. Specifically, these experts mentioned financial capacity for investment as the
most critical KCF for network providers (27% of weighted answers), and introduce the ability to offer low cost solutions in the
top five ranking of most critical KFC.
On the other side, network professionals consider the capabilities for mergers and acquisitions management as a top five KCF
for network equipment suppliers (fourth position, 13% of weighted responses).
Services professionals place financial capacity for investment as the most critical KCF for network
providers, and introduce the ability to offer low cost solutions in the top five ranking.
Total
Network
9
18
23
26
Services
15
12
32
14
8
20
11
11
21
15
13
13
12
27
Ability to provide a comprehensive
and integrated solution of
equipment + network integration
and operation service
Capabilities for the management
of strategic alliances
Solid alliances with mobile
operators
Capabilities for the management
of strategic alliances
Others
Capabilities for mergers and
acquisitions management
operators
Ability to offer low cost solutions
operators
Others
Others
normalized on base 100. Comparison among global, network and services areas results.
34
2.2.7. Investments (7R)
Enterprises are expected to invest more heavily in their network infrastructure, as the macro concerns have had little impact
on data demand which has continued to remain strongly driven by big trends like mobile Internet and cloud computing.
Specifically, mobile data traffic has grown exponentially with the proliferation of mobile devices such as smartphones,
e-readers and tablets.
In this context, the majority of the interviewees consider the consolidation of western network suppliers to gain size and
synergies to cope with Asian competition as the most relevant investment strategies for network equipment vendors likely to
occur in the next four years.
Interviewees place the investment in R&D to offer the most advanced technologies and network accesses as the second most
relevant investment strategy for network equipment providers.
The investment of new global players, such as Google, Microsoft or Apple, in networks has been instead selected by the
industry leaders as the third investment strategy with highest probability to occur and highest impact on the evolution of the
Portuguese ecosystem.
The top 5 scoring is closed by the investment in bringing SDN and other cloud-centric networking solutions, and the acquisition
of companies to offer an integrated service, which respectively occupy the fourth and fifth position of the ranking.
Consolidation of Western network suppliers to gain size and synergies to cope
with Asian competition is outlined by the pool of interviewees as the most relevant
investment strategy for network providers likely to occur in the next four years.
Western network suppliers will consolidate to gain size
and synergies to cope with Asia competition
22
Network providers will invest in R&D to offer the most advanced
technologies and network accesses
20
New global players will invest in networks
(i.e. Google, Microsoft or Apple)
18
Network providers will invest in bringing SDN
and other clous-centric networking solutions
Network providers will acquire companies to offer
an integrated service
12
9
R7 Most relevant investment strategies for network equipment vendors likely to occur in the next four years. Weighted scores
Cross-industry
The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sub-sectors shows a certain degree of heterogeneity of
opinions.
It is worth highlighting the following differences: opinion leaders from the network sector place the investment in bringing
SDN and other cloud-centric networking solutions as the main strategy in the next four years. They also consider, as well as
professionals from services sector, the acquisition of Western competitors by Asian network providers in top 5 of the most
relevant investment strategies.
Taking into account interviewees from the services sector, they place in fourth position the investment in networks which will
be carried out by devices manufacturers and Operating Systems developers (i.e. Samsung).
35
2.3.Services
Service
s
2.3.1. Events (1S)
Brussels’ top competition authority calls for 28 national telecoms regulators to be replaced by a single pan-European
watchdog in an attempt to bring down the national barriers to cross-border consolidation and the removal of different
regulators (August 2013). This fact has been outlined by the professionals who participated to the survey as the event in the
telecommunications services industry with the highest potential impact on the evolution of the Portuguese ecosystem.
In second position of the ranking, the opinion leaders of the industry place the reduction by the European Union of 36% of
roaming charges imposed on customers for checking e-mail and video viewing.
In fact, the European Parliament approved, last April 2014, the elimination of roaming charges in countries of the EU as of
December 15, 2015 in order to create a common telecommunication market. This approval also ensures an Internet open to
all, prohibiting the blocking of the network and the degradation of their content and coordinating licensing of spectrum for
wireless broadband services. It also provides customers with a higher level of transparency in their Internet and broadband
contracts, allowing them to switch providers more easily.
The fact that the KPN Foundation blocks América Móvil’s 7,2 billion Euros offer for the 70 % of the Dutch Cell phone operator
KPN undermining Carlos Slim’s ambition to expand his telecom empire to Europe (August 2013), has been also given quite
relevance for the future of the industry, ranking third within the top 5 events.
Based on total interviewees pool, third position is occupied by the fact that US operator AT&T seems to be interested in
expanding its business into European mobile telecommunications market (focused on 4G network deployment) throughout
inorganic growth. Its main targets are companies like Telefónica, EE, Vodafone and KPN (June 2013).
Finally, closing the top 5 ranking, industry experts remarks the merger agreement between Oi, Brazil’s biggest phone
company, with Portugal Telecom to create a trans-Atlantic carrier, to better compete against Telefónica Group and America
Móvil (October 2013).
Cross-industry
Looking deeper into the results of the survey from a sectorial perspective, opinions show a certain degree of homogeneity,
regardless the industrial area to which the different actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning that professionals
from Portuguese services sector consider the approval by Portugal's competition authority of the merger between cable TV
operator Zon Multimedia and Sonaecom's mobile phone unit Optimus, which will create the country's second-largest telecoms
firm, as the third event with the highest impact on the future of the industry for the next four years.
36
The fact that Brussels’ top competition authority calls for 28 national telecoms regulators to be replaced by
a single pan-European watchdog has been considered by the pool of interviewees as the recent event related
to services sector likely to have the highest impact on the evolution of the Portuguese macro-industry.
Brussels’ top competition authority calls for 28 national telecoms regulators to be replaced by a single pan-European watchdog in an attempt to
bring down the national barriers to cross-border consolidation and the
removal of different regulators (August)
19
The European Union will cut the roaming price mobile carriers can charge
customers for checking e-mail and watching videos while traveling by
36%, in an attempt to make the market for European telecommunications
companies more unified (June 2013)
16
The KPN Foundation blocks America Móvil’s 7,2 billion Euros offer for
the 70% of the Dutch Cell phone operator KPN undermining Carlos Slim’s
ambition to expand his telecom empire to Europe (August 2013)
US operator AT&T seems to be interested in expanding its business into
European mobile telecommunications market (with a focus on 4G network deployment) through out inorganic growth; with the likely targets
Telefónica, EE, Vodafone and KPN (June 2013)
Oi, Brail’s biggest phone company, agreed to merge with Portugal
Telecom to create a trans-Atlantic carrier, to better compete against
Telefónica Group and America Movil (October 2013)
15
11
10
S1 Recent events with the highest impact on the future of the industry for the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base
2.3.2. Offering (2S)
According to the opinion of the interviewed professionals and industry leaders, Mobile Ultra-fast Broadband will be the most
consumed communication service in Portugal in the next four years, followed by Fixed Ultra-fast Broadband.
Fixed Broadband and Mobile Broadband share the third position in the ranking with 14% of weighted answers, followed, in
fourth position, by other two communication services with 13% of weighted responses: IPTV Services (Telecom operators) and
OTT TV.
Finally, in the last positions the pool of industry experts that participated to the survey placed Cable TV (Analogic and / or
DTT) and Satellite TV as communication services with certain consumption in the future Portuguese ecosystem.
37
The results of the survey reveal that Mobile Ultra-fast Broadband will be, according
to the opinion of the industry experts, the most consumed communication service
in Portugal in the next four years, followed by Fixed Ultra-fast Broadband.
Mobile Ultra-fast Broadband
21
Fixed Ultra-fast Broadband
19
Fixed Broadband
14
Mobile Broadband
14
IPTV Services (Telecom Operators)
13
OTT TV
13
Cable TV (Analogic and / or DTT)
3
Satellite TV
3
S2 Most used communication services in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Cross-industry
The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sub-sectors shows a certain degree of homogeneity of
opinions, regardless the segment to which the actors belong.
Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting that interviewees from services sector place OTT TV communication (28% of weighted
value) as the most used communication service in the next four years, moving Mobile Ultra-fast Broadband to the third place.
For network executives, Fixed Ultra-fast Broadband will be the most used communication service in Portugal in the next four
years, with 31% of weighted answers.
38
Interviewees from services sector place OTT TV communication (28% of weighted value) as the most
used communication service in Portugal in the next four years. For network professionals, Fixed Ultra-fast
Broadband will be the main communication service in the next four years, with a weighted value of 31%.
Services
Network
Total
9
6
21
13
0
14
17
26
28
8
13
8
22
19
14
14
14
31
8
14
11
Fixed Ultra-fast Braodband
Fixed Broadband
Fixed Broadband
Fixed Broadband
Mobile Broadband
Mobile Broadband
Mobile Broadband
OTT TV
OTT TV
OTT TV
Others
Others
Others
S2 Most used communication services in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Comparison among global,
network and services areas results.
2.3.3. Players (3S)
The whole sample of the professionals interviewed believes that the player with highest growth in terms of market share in
the Portuguese mobile telephony segment in the next four years is MEO1.
In second position, interviewees highlighted Vodafone, followed by Grupo ZON2 and Optimus2, situated in third and fourth
position respectively.
1. Portugal Telecom, MEO and Grupo PT are currently operating under the same brand: MEO.
2. Grupo ZON and Optimus have merged, creating a new company called NOS.
39
Interviewees believe that TMN1 (Telecomunicações Móveis Nacionais), Vodafone
and Grupo ZON2 will be the players with highest growth of market shares in
the Portuguese segment of mobile telephony in the next four years.
MEO
32
25
Vodafone
Grupo ZON
19
Optimus
Other
18
4
S3.1 – Players with highest growth of market shares in the mobile telephony segment in the next four years. Weighted scores
Cross-industry
opinions, regardless the segment to which the actors belong.
Nevertheless, some differences can be found in the results from interviewees in the services sector who place Grupo ZON2,
with 30% of weighted responses, as the player with highest growth of market share in the Portuguese mobile telephony
segment in the next four years. MEO1 (28% weighted value) is placed second in the ranking, followed by Vodafone and
Optimus2, third and fourth respectively.
40
Industry experts in the services sector place Grupo ZON2 as the player with highest growth of
market shares in the Portuguese segment of mobile telephony in the next four years.
Total
Services
0
6
17
28
18
32
31
19
24
25
MEO
MEO
Vodafone
Vodafone
Grupo ZON
Grupo ZON
Optimus
Optimus
Others
Others
S3.1 – Players with highest growth of market shares in the mobile telephony segment in the next four years. Weighted scores
normalized on base 100. Comparison among global and services areas results.
Regarding the Portuguese segment of fixed Internet, the interviewed leaders of the industry identify Vodafone as the player
which will experience the highest growth of market shares in the next four years, followed by MEO1 and Grupo ZON2/TV Cabo
1, second and third position respectively.
According to the interviewed leaders of the industry, Vodafone will experience the highest growth of market
shares in the Portuguese segment of fixed Internet, followed by MEO1 and Grupo ZON2/TV Cabo 1.
Vodafone
35
32
PT Comunicações (Grupo PT)
Grupo ZON/TV Cabo 1
23
4
Optimus
Other
3
S3.2 Players with highest growth of market shares in the fixed Internet segment in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized
41
Cross-industry
homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless the segment or industrial sector to which they belong to.
According to the interviewed opinion leaders of the industry, Vodafone, with 34% of weighted answers, is the player which will
experience the highest growth of market shares in mobile broadband segment in the next four years, followed by MEO1 and
Grupo ZON2, 26% and 17% of weighted value answers respectively.
The results of the survey reveal that Vodafone, MEO, and Grupo ZON2 will experience
the highest growth of shares in the Portuguese mobile broadband market.
Vodafone
34
MEO
26
Grupo ZON
17
12
Optimus
Other
7
S3.3 Players with highest growth of market shares in the mobile broadband segment in the next four years. Weighted scores
Cross-industry
opinions, regardless the segment to which the actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning slight discrepancies of
opinions of the services sector. This group placed Vodafone and Grupo ZON2 sharing the first position of the ranking of
players with highest growth of market shares in the mobile broadband segment in the next four years, followed by MEO1.It is
remarkable that these three players account for 81% of weighted answers.
42
According to the interviewed executives in the services sector, Vodafone and Grupo ZON2 will be the players
with highest growth of market shares in the Portuguese mobile broadband market in the next four years.
Total
Services
19
21
31
34
17
31
19
26
Vodafone
Vodafone
MEO
MEO
Grupo ZON
Grupo ZON
Others
Others
S3.3 Players with highest growth of market shares in the mobile broadband segment in the next four years. Weighted scores
normalized on base 100. Comparison among global and services areas results.
2.3.4. Business Models (4S)
The business models of the telecom service sub-sector can be subdivided into two main groups. In the first group are included
those models based on traditional revenues streams, which are unilateral and highly dependent on market and customer
needs evolution. In the second one are included the alternative models characterized by revenue sharing schemes with other
actors, either being part of the same telecom value chain, or external to the value chain.
In this context, the opinion leaders outline revenue models based on flat rates of voice and data as the most relevant model
for the telecommunications operators.
In second position of the ranking the pool of professionals that participated to the survey placed the revenue models based
on service packages tailored upon market segment, followed by pricing models based on services quality and speed in third
place.
The top five ranking is closed by “Premium” pricing revenue models for ultra-broadband services, and the FTTX networks
exploitation by means of a mix public-private model. These models are ranked respectively in fourth and fifth position in the
top 5 ranking.
43
The professionals of the industry consider that the most relevant business model for telecom operators in
the next four years will be the one based on flat rates of voices and data, followed by revenue models based
on service packages tailored upon market segment, and pricing models based on service quality and speed.
Revenue model based on flat rates of voice and data
22
Revenue model based on service packages tailored
upon market segments
21
Pricing models based on service quality and speed
15
14
“Premium” pricing revenue models for ultra-broadband services
Mix public-private model for the FTTX networks exploitation
11
S4 Most relevant business models for telecom operators in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample
size: 11 interviewees answered to this question.
Cross-industry
opinions, regardless the segment to which the actors belong. Nevertheless, industry experts from the services area increase
the importance of pricing models based on service quality and speed to the second position, with 19% of total weighted
answers. On the other hand, this group of professionals reduce the relevance of revenue models based on service packages
tailored upon market segments to the fourth position, at the same level of mix public-private models for the FTTX networks
exploitation.
2.3.5. Business Strategies (5S)
Communications services market is moving towards Internet access (fixed and mobile) services, and pay TV, accompanied by
the decline of fixed and mobile telephony services consumption. For this reason, the different actors of this industrial area
have been called to reshape their strategies with the aim of achieving the best positioning in the marketplace.
The pool of interviewed industry executives believes that the most valuable strategy for Portuguese telecom operators to
operate in the future marketplace will focus on a converged services offering (ADSL, mobile, fixed and TV).
Although far behind, the development of innovative services in terms of advertisement and contents, and exploitation of data
and customers behavior patterns is the next most valuable business strategy for telecom operators. With the same percentage
of weighted answers (8%), the exploitation of group synergies, consolidating activities in several markets segments is
considered one of the top three most valuable business strategies for telecom operators in the next four years.
Finally, the ranking is closed by three strategies related to wide distribution networks, development of alliances to offer
converged services, and costs reduction by increasing outsourcing of non-core activities.
44
According to the opinion of the interviewed industry executives, the most valuable
business strategy for Portuguese telecom operators in the next four years will
focus on a converged services offering (ADSL, mobile, fixed and TV).
Focus on a converges services offering (ADSL, mobile, fixed and TV)
26
Development of innovative services in terms of advertisement and
contents, and exploitation of data and customes behavior patterns
8
Group synergies explotation, consolidating activities
in several markets segments
8
Focus on a wide distribution network
7
Development of alliances with cable operators, mobile/fixed telecom
operatores, and Pay TV and Media Groups, to offer converged services
7
Costs reduction by increasing outsourcing of non-core activities
7
S5 Most valuable business strategies for telecom operators in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample
size: 11 interviewees answered to this question.
Cross-industry
The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sectors shows a certain degree of homogeneity of opinions,
regardless the segment to which the actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth mentioning slight discrepancies of opinions of
the services sector. This group introduces assets divestments strategy in the top five of most valuable business strategies for
telecom operators in the next four years, with 11% of weighted responses.
2.3.6. Key Competitive Factors (6S)
The services market has been facing the transformation of business models. Therefore, the different players tend to specialize
or change their current services by means of new formats and prices, as well as seek for new complementary services in other
new areas. Nowadays the number of players involved in this sector has increased, and traditional players have been facing
tough competition from new entrants, which in turn undermined their growth. Actually, new entrants have emerged bringing
other competencies and offering services required by users at a very competitive price.
According to the results of the survey, the Key Competitive Factor considered by the pool of industrial leaders as the most
critical for telecom operators to successfully compete in the next four years in Portugal is the capability to offer a converged
service offering (ADSL, mobile, fixed and TV).
Far behind, in second position, the interviewed professionals mention the capabilities to offer innovative/differential pricing
plans, with a weighted value of 20%.
Capabilities to provide an end to end service offering, manage business model transformation toward entertainment and
contents, and financial capacity to invest have been also identified as relevant KCF.
45
Capabilities to offer a converged service offering (ADSL, mobile, fixed and TV) are considered
as the most critical Key Competitive Factors for telecommunications services providers
in the next four years, to successfully compete in the Portuguese panorama
Capabilities to offer a converged service offering (ADSL, mobile, fixed
and TV)
33
Capabilities to offer innovative/differential pricing plans
13
Capabilities to provide an end to end service offering
9
Capabilities to manage business model transformation toward
entertainment and contents
9
Financial capacity to invest
9
S.6 Most critical Key Competitive Factors for telecom operators in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Cross-industry
Comparing the results from a sectorial perspective, it is interesting to highlight that executives from the services group
give more importance to the capabilities to manage business model transformation toward entertainment and contents,
placing it in second position with 14% of weighted answers. Moreover, they introduce, with the third highest percentage
of weighted responses (11%), the coverage & service availability, and the extension of services offering into new verticals
(financial services, e-health, etc.) in the ranking.
2.3.7. Investments (7S)
The majority of the interviewees consider the investment in media and entertainment companies to enhance telecom
operators’ connectivity services with value-added contents as the most relevant investment strategy likely to occur in the
Portuguese market in the next four years.
Opinion leaders place the alliances with companies able to provide on-line services in different specific vertical sectors
(financial services, e-health, etc.) as the second most relevant investment strategy for telecom operators.
The sale of telecom operators’ network infrastructure, either totally or partially, establishing rental models with network
owners has been selected by the industry leaders as the third investment strategy with highest probability to occur and
highest impact on the evolution of the Portuguese ecosystem.
The top 5 scoring is closed by the investment in telecommunications services by new global players, and transnational
mergers carried out by some European telecom operators, which respectively occupy the fourth and fifth position of the
ranking.
46
According to the opinion of the opinion leaders, the investment in media and entertainment
companies to enhance telecom operator’s connectivity services with value-added contents
will be the most relevant investment strategy likely to occur in the next four years.
Telecom operators will invest in media and entertainment companies to
enhance their connectivity services with value-added contents
16
Telecom operators will establish alliances with companies able to provide
on-line services in diferent specific vertical sectors (financial services,
e-health,etc)
14
Telecom operators will sell out their network infrastructure, either totally
or partialy, establishing rental models with network owners
New global players will invest in telecomunications services
Some European telecom operators will carry out
transnational merger operations
13
11
10
S7 Most relevant investment strategies for telecom operators likely to occur in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on
base 100. Sample size: xxx interviewees answered to this question.
Cross-industry
Analyzing the results of the survey at a deeper level from a sectorial viewpoint, it is worth highlighting two investment
strategies that executives belonging to the area of services (telco operators, and service providers of communication and
entertainment) have given certain relevance.
The first one is the investment carried out by telecom operators with the main objective of developing their own wholesale
units with turn-key managed services for B2B segment. The second strategy is the acquisition of MVNOs and the development
of a branded portfolio with service offerings tailored upon target market segments.
47
2.4.Applications
Applica
tions
2.4.1. Events (1A)
The most relevant events considered to the development of the applications industry in the face of 2017 are related to the
development of the applications of mobile payment, as well as the growing importance of the industry in Europe and its
impact on jobs creation.
According to the opinion provided by the interviewees, the event considered to be the most relevant for the evolution of
the telecommunications macro-industry, is that related to the global agreement between Visa and Samsung in order to
combine Visa’s expertise in payments with Samsung’s leadership in mobile device technology, with the aim of accelerating
the availability of mobile (NFC) payments globally.
In second position, according to its relevance, the professionals of the industry identify the fact that EU accounts for 22% of
the global production of app-related products and services, with revenues of more than 10 billion Euros per annum, having
contributed to nearly 800.000 jobs to the EU.
Two events related to the launch of a digital wallet app by Google and the boost of mobile app development with backend
toolset by Google App Engine, complete the four main events on the future of the industry for the next four years.
Finally, the weighted ranking is closed by those events related to the investment of 200 million euros across 36 deals in 2013
by mobile app development companies, and the launch of Office app for iPhone and iPad.
48
According to the opinion provided by interviewees, the global agreement between Visa and Samsung
aimed at accelerating the availability of mobile (NFC) payments globally, is judged as the event with the
highest relevance and the strongest impact on the future of the macro-industry in the next four years.
Visa and Samsung announce a global agreement that combines Visa’s
expertise in payments with Samsung’s leadership in mobile device
technology, with tje aim of accelerating the availability of mobile (NFC)
payments globaly (February 2013)
14
EU accounts for 22% of the global production of app-related products
and services, with revenues of more than 10 bilion Euros per annum,
having contributed to nearly 800.000 jobs to the EU (September 2013)
12
Google launches digital wallet app on iPhone to compete with Apple’s
Passbook (September 2013)
9
Google App Engine boosts mobile app development with backend toolset
(June 2013)
9
Mobile app development companies have invested over 200 million Euros
across 36 deals in 2013 alone (July 2013)
7
Microsoft finally launches an Office app for the iPhone (March 2013)
7
A1 Recent events with the highest impact on the future of the industry for the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base
Cross-industry
Regarding the classification of respondents according to the sector they belong to, those events with the highest relevance for
the future evolution of the macro-sector have been selected evenly by interviewees, regardless their industrial origin.
However, it is worth noting that the opinion showed by respondents belonging to the industrial segment related to services
identify the fact that Facebook has allowed 3.800 developers to achieve 25 million downloads through its mobile app install
ads, as the most relevant event for the macro-industry. They also give the same level of importance to the winners of Lisbon
Big Apps 2013, focused on carsharing, tourism and transport.
49
2.4.2. Offering (2A)
Downloads of worldwide applications achieved around 100 billion with nearly 1 million apps available across an increasing
number of app stores. Mobile devices, wireless connectivity and apps together make up the current wave of innovation in
Information and Communication Technology. Mobile devices provide users with access everywhere to computing power and
applications, thus boosting what are possible compared with the fixed area.
Furthermore, mobile users and app stores have lowered entry barriers for developers. At the same time, app stores provide
global market access, discoverability, low cost and application monetization. Consumers can download an enormous variety of
purpose-built apps at low prices from various types of stores, including communication and entertainment, messaging, maps
and other productivity tools. Wider social benefits are also becoming clear with apps for education, health and transport. In
the health sector, for example, apps provide new tools for fitness monitoring, medical self-management, remote consultation
and hospital administration. Additionally, while apps market evolution has been mainly consumer-oriented, the enterprise
market has also benefited from this development.
Furthermore, regarding connectivity, LTE (4G) networks deployment allows to offer lower costs per bit carried and to enhance
the potential of apps and their impact on the European markets. Coverage is expanding, along with enhancements in quality
of service (speed, capacity, latency). Technology advancements are driving also the improvement of devices as well as the
increasing use of cloud computing, thus creating always available connected computing and a growing number of apps.
According to the scores given by industry experts, applications related to social networks will be the most used in the next
four years. Actually, such kind of applications are becoming increasingly popular, allowing users to keep in contact with
friends and family, as well as share information and other digital contents everywhere.
On the other hand, applications related to entertainment are placed in the second position in terms of the level of usage they
will achieve in the future, according to what stated by professionals who participated to the questionnaire.
Mailing apps are positioned in the third position of the weighted ranking, followed by leisure apps (photos, travelling, etc.)
and instant messaging applications.
Social networks, entertainment and mailing applications will be the most used in the future of the Portuguese
macro-industry, according to what stated by professionals who participated to the questionnaire.
Social Networks
22
Entertainment
21
Mailing
15
Leisure (photos, travelling, etc.)
Instant messaging
12
8
A2 Most used types of mobile applications in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 15
interviewees answered to this question.
50
Cross-industry
Considering the results of different sectors, it is interesting to notice how the group of experts from the services sector has
a different opinion with respect to the total sample. Concretely, these professionals highlight e-payment applications as the
most used in the next four years, followed by mailing, social networks and business task applications. Entertainment apps are
also considered in the top five of most used applications till 2017.
2.4.3. Players (3A)
According to the opinion showed by opinion leaders of the macro-industry who participated to the survey, Google leads
the weighted ranking as the player with the greatest relevance in Portugal in the next four years, within the leisure and
entertainment market.
The second option selected by the industry professionals that participated to the survey is Netflix.
On the other hand, the third position has been awarded by the industry executives to Grupo PT1 and Amazon, both of them
with the same weighted rating.
After these four players, Apple and Microsoft close the top ranking of players with highest relevance in the digital entertainment
marketplace.
Surveyed professionals bet on Google as the most relevant player in the digital
entertainment market in 2017, followed by Netflix, Grupo PT1 and Amazon.
Google
17
Netflix
13
Grupo PT
10
Amazon
10
Apple
9
Microsoft
9
A3 Players with highest relevance in the digital entertainment marketplace, over the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on
base 100. Sample size: 15 interviewees answered to this question.
51
Cross-industry
Distinguishing per industrial sub-sectors which the interviewees belong to, some attention must be paid to those differences
identified, especially among the industrial segment devoted to services and the opinion provided by the global industry
executives surveyed.
Particularly, it is worth noting that interviewees from the services group identify Grupo ZON2 as the fourth main player in
Portugal.
Industry experts belonging to the sector of services differs from the global criteria, as considering Grupo
ZON2 among the five most relevant players for the future of the macro-sector over the next four years.
Google
27
Apple
20
Netflix
13
Grupo ZON
11
Amazon
11
A3 Players with highest relevance in the digital entertainment marketplace, over the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on
base 100. Sample size: 4 interviewees answered to this question. Results from the services area.
52
2.4.4. Business Models (4A)
Within the industry of applications, developers pursue the business models that best suit its particular nature and the success
which is expected from it, with the aim of increasing as much as possible its profitability. However, existing constraints must
be taken into account, since the vast majority of the applications available are either free or low cost.
For applications with a high volume of downloads, the business model is ad-based, since advertisers seek to get their ads seen
the maximum number of times as possible by different users.
A variant of the ad-based model is an option offered to the user, consisting of avoiding the advertising by means of a
payment. Up to date, this variant is already in use within the website services environment, so some applications developers
are expected to opt for it in the future.
In the freemium model the application download is free of charge for users, while they will have to pay for access to added
services. These models are based on the concept of provide users with the possibility to make in-app purchases to download
additional content or functionalities.
In such context, according to the results gathered from the survey, the business models which will account for the highest
relevance for mobile applications in Portugal over the four next years, are freemium and service subscription (free of
advertising), which have the same percentage of weighted answers (15%).
Following the leaders very closely in terms of weighted score obtained, second position is occupied by ad-based revenue
model. Business models based on service subscription (with embedded advertising) and transaction fee (payment or transfer
made trough) close the ranking of most relevant business models in terms of its relevance for the macro-industry in the future.
The freemium model will be, according to what stated by respondents, the most relevant for
the market of applications in the next four years, followed in the weighted ranking by models
based on service subscription (free of advertising) and ad-based revenue model.
Freemium model (with in-app purchase)
15
Service subscription (free of advertising)
15
Ad-based revenue model
14
Service subscription (with embedded advertising)
Transaction fee (payment or transfer made trough
13
12
A4.1 Most relevant business models for mobile applications in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
53
Cross-industry
Professionals from the services sector place service subscription (with embedded advertising) as the main business model
in the next four years, followed by freemium model (with in-app purchase) and transaction fee (payment or transfer made
trough) models, according to the results gathered in the survey.
In the arena of pay TV and video, the same business models described in the section 4.1 for applications can be found. To
those, it is worth adding other models based on pay-per-view, such as the payment for renting a movie, or those focused on
tailoring to the users’ tastes when making movies suggestions based on the user history.
Actually, OTT video services extend the overall market for pay-TV services by appealing to consumers who would not
consider taking up traditional pay-TV services, perhaps because of the cost or level of commitment involved. In particular, the
emergence of OTT video services gives consumers direct access to premium and/or niche content without the requirement
to pay for other subscriptions (either for basic pay-TV or a bundle of services). This in turn brings consumers more freedom
and flexibility.
In this context, “pure-play OTT” such as Netflix are not the only ones benefiting from this new growth opportunity. Pay-TV
operators with niche and/or premium content can broaden their reach by targeting non-subscribers with their own OTT video
services. The key of success is to find a tradeoff that ensures their prices will attract OTT consumers, while minimizing the
risk of cannibalizing their traditional subscriber base.
In such context, the macro-industry opinion leaders bet on business models based on service subscription (with embedded
advertising) as the most relevant for the evolution of the Portuguese macro-industry in the next four years.
Following the leader in at a short distance in terms of weighted scores obtained, the pay per view business model is place in
second position, followed by pay TV/OTT hybrid model.
In accordance to the results extracted from the survey, ad-based revenue model and pure play OTT model share the fifth
position in the top five ranking.
Business models based on service subscription (with embedded advertising)
are those that will have the greatest impact of the market of pay TV and video
in Portugal in 2017 according to the opinion of the respondents.
Service subscription (with embedded advertising)
21
Pay per view
17
Hybrid model, pay TV/OTT
16
11
8
Pure play OTT
8
A4.2 Most relevant business models for pay TV and video in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
54
Cross-industry
homogeneous, regardless the industrial area to which the different actors belong.
From the point of view of respondents belonging to networks and services areas, the most remarkable
difference is the high relevance given to pay TV/OTT hybrid model by interviewees from the services group.
Total
Networks
Services
10
21
21
27
17
8
29
12
28
17
10
10
11
12
10
16
29
13
Service subscription (with embedded
advertising
advertising
advertising
Pay per view
Pay per view
Pay per view
Ad based revenue model
Pure play OTT
Pure play OTT
Others
Others
Others
A4.2 Most relevant business models for pay TV and video in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Comparison among global, network and services areas results.
55
2.4.5. Business Strategies (5A)
Rivalry in the applications market is rising steadily, with different players that are increasingly getting involved in it, within
the others:
•
Pure applications developers;
•
Internet giants as Google, Apple, Microsoft and Facebook, which develop applications and platforms;
•
Independent developers such as telecom operators or service companies;
•
Players from other industries that are developing applications and platforms as a means to transform their business
from traditional to digital
In this context, the business strategy based on customer experience has been selected as the most valuable for the mobile
applications market in the next four years. The second position is occupied by strategies focused on applications and strategic
alliances with social platforms (Facebook, Twitter, etc.), followed by multi-OS applications and related services development.
Finally, according to the results gathered from the survey, the weighted ranking is closed by alliances with mobile operators
in fourth position, and strategies focus on premium apps in fifth position.
The capabilities to develop multi-platforms web-based applications are the most critical Key
Competitive Factors for mobile applications market in Portugal in the next four years.
Capabilities develop multi-platforms web-based applications
19
18
Enhance customer experience
17
Technological innovation capabilities
Capabilities to manage strategic alliances
13
10
A6.1 Most critical Key Competitive Factors for mobile applications in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Regarding the Portuguese segment of pay TV and video, the interviewed executives of the industry identify the capabilities to
develop multi-platform services as the most critical Key Competitive Factor in the next four years, followed by a strong brand
positioning and enhancing customer experience, as second and third most critical KCF.
On the other hand, technological innovation capabilities for streaming solutions is placed as the third KCF in the next four
years, sharing this position with the capabilities to provide multi-screen content (for live events) enabling users interaction.
56
Capabilities to develop multi-platform services are identified as the most critical Key
Competitive Factors for pay TV and video in Portugal in the next four years.
Capabilities to develop multi-platforms services
30
17
Enhance customer experience
14
Technological innovation capabilities for streaming solutions
Capabilities to provide multi-screen content (for live events)
enabling users interaction
10
7
A6.2 Most critical Key Competitive Factors for pay TV and video in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Cross-industry
Comparing the results from a sectorial perspective, it is interesting to highlight that professionals from the services group give
more importance to enhance customer experience, placing it in first position with 35% of weighted value answers. Moreover,
they also give certain importance to “Coopetition” capabilities (cooperative competition) with 8% of weighted responses.
Interviewees of the network group place capabilities to develop “social TV” in the top five of the most critical Key Competitive
Factors for pay TV and video in Portugal in the next four years.
57
2.4.6. Investments (7A)
As mentioned above in the section of business strategies, applications segment is attracting a large number of actors, which
are committed to the investment in its development. The venture capital firms have focused on the development of the sector
through startups which develop mobile applications, with great potential for growth and profitability. That is why mobile
application developers have been able to obtain funding sources.
In this context, the majority of the interviewees consider the investment of telecom operators to offer mass market applications,
as well as corporate and sectorial ones, as the most relevant investment strategy for mobile applications likely to occur in the
Portuguese market in the next four years.
The investment of new global entrants to create applications for their own ecosystem has been instead selected by the
industry experts as the second investment strategy with highest probability to occur and highest impact on the evolution of
the Portuguese mobile apps ecosystem.
The fact that investment funds will explore opportunities for financing potential applications developers startups is identified
according to the results gathered from the survey as the third principal investment strategy.
Finally, the ranking is closed by the investment of applications developers in social networks advertisement, technological
innovation and the investment by contents provider to offer a complete package of applications and content.
The majority of industry experts consider the investment by telecom operators to offer mass
market applications, as well as corporate and sectorial ones, as the most relevant investment
strategy for mobile applications likely to occur in the Portuguese market in the next four years.
Telecom operators will invest to offer mass market applications, as well
as corporate and sectorial ones
19
New global entrants will invest to create applications
for their own ecosystems
14
Investment funds will explore opportunities for financing potential applications developers startups
13
Applications developers will invest in social networks advertisement
12
Applications developers will invest in technological innovation
11
Content providers will invest to offer a complete package of
application and content
11
S7 Most relevant investment strategies for mobile applications sector likely to occur in the next four years. Weighted scores
Cross-industry
Analyzing the results of the survey at a deeper level from a sectorial viewpoint, it is worth highlighting that professionals
belonging to the area of networks consider the investment of network providers in the applications industry as the most
relevant investment strategy for the mobile applications sector likely to occur in Portugal in the next four years.
58
2.5.Contents
Conten
ts
2.5.1. Events (1C)
According to the opinion leaders of the macro-industry that participated to the survey, the event with the highest impact on
the evolution of the Portuguese contents sector is the one related to the launch of Google Play All Accesses (February 2013)
in order to beat Apple to the music subscription service.
Other relevant event with high potential impact on the future of the industry, according to the opinion of the interviewees,
is the availability in several countries in Europe (Spain, France, Germany, Finland and UK) of Google’s own video streaming
device Chromecast, allowing the user to steam content to their TV from either the Chrome browser or from their mobile phone
or tablet (October 2013).
Sharing the following position with the same percentage of weighted responses (11%), the agreement between Apple and Sony
Music Entertainment, the launch of iRadio music streaming service (July 2013), and Amazon’s plan to release a television settop box that would stream video over the Internet into customers’ homes (April 2013).
The ranking is closed by the fact that Google's YouTube has renewed its contract with music video distributor Vevo, and took
a 7% stake in the company for around 35 million Euros (March 2013).
59
According to the opinion provided by industry executives, the event with the highest impact on
the evolution of the Portuguese contents sector is the one related to the launch of Google Play
All Accesses (February 2013) in order to beat Apple to the music subscription service.
Google beats Apple to the music subscription service with the launch of
Google Play All Accesses (February 2013)
18
Google’s own video streaming device Chromecast is now available in
several countries in Europe (Spain, France, Germany, Finland and UK),
allowing the user to stream content to their TV from either the Chrome
browser or from their mobile phone or tablet
17
Apple signs an agreement with Sony Music Entertainment, and launches
iRadio music streaming service (June 2013)
11
Amazon plans to release a television set-top box that would stream video
over the internet into customers’ homes (April 2013)
11
Google’s YouTube renews its contract with music video distributor Vevo,
and takes a 75 stake in the company for around 35 million Euros
investment (March 2013
9
C1 Recent events with the highest impact on the future of the industry for the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base
Cross-industry
Among all respondents in the different areas that make up the macro sector, those belonging to the content sector have put
specific focus on the fact that Spotify expands Pandora-Like web radio services while halts music downloads to all customers
in Europe, unless they have gift cards with a specific download link (March 2013).
60
2.5.2. Offering (2C)
According to the weighted scores given by interviewees, professional video, such as cinema, series and TV programs, is
leading the industrial transformation as the main offer in the next for years in Portugal content segment.
On the other hand, content related to professional audio is placed as the second most used content for the next four years,
followed by digital games developed by professionals.
In fourth and fifth position of the weighted ranking, the pool of survived interviewees identify advertising an eBooks, both
produced by professionals, as content with a certain level of usage in Portugal in the next four years.
It is remarkable that professional content accounts for 79% of weighted rating answers.
According to the scores given by interviewees, professional video, such as cinema, series and TV programs,
is leading the industrial transformation as the main offer in the next for years in Portugal content segment.
Professional content - Video
30
17
Professional content - Audio
Professional content - Games
16
Professional content - Advertising
8
Professional content - eBooks
8
C2 Most used types of contents in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Cross-industry
Considering the results of different sectors, it is interesting to notice how the group of opinion leaders from the services
sector introduces the content generated by users in Social Media in the top five most used contents in Portugal in the next
four years, sharing the same percentage of weighted rating answers (13%) with games developed by professionals.
61
Opinion leaders from the services sector introduces the content generated by users in
Social Media in the top five most used contents in Portugal in the next four years.
Total
Services
13
22
21
30
17
8
8
17
13
38
16
Professional content - eBooks
UGC - Social Media
Others
Others
C2 Most used types of contents in Portugal in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Comparison among global network and services areas results.
2.5.3. Players (3C)
According to the opinion showed by professionals of the macro-industry who participated to the survey, YouTube is considered
as the most important packager in the Portuguese contents market in the next four years.
The second option selected by the industry experts that participated to the survey is Spotify, with 23% of weighted answers.
Music providers (EMI, Warner, Universal, Sony, etc.) and Viddi are identified as packagers with high relevance till 2017.
62
Surveyed professionals bet on YouTube as the most relevant packager
in the Portuguese contents market in the next four years.
Video - YouTube
34
Audio - Spotify
23
Other
17
Audio - Music providers (EMI, Warner, Universal, Sony, etc.)
Video - Viddy
11
7
C3.1 Most important packagers in the contents market, over the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Cross-industry
Distinguishing per industrial sub-sectors which the interviewees belong to, some attention must be paid to those differences
identified, especially among the industrial segment devoted to contents where SocialCam video packager is placed as the
fourth most important actor in the Portuguese contents marker.
Another industry segment analyzed is the one related to contents aggregators. These actors operate in a higher layer than
packagers, unifying and updating information from different sources in the same site.
Apart from traditional players such as radio stations, pay TV platforms or distributors, the digitalization of the industry has
allowed the emergence of internet sites for content aggregation. Examples of this stream are portals that bring together
information from other media news sites (Yahoo!, Storify), social networks that distribute information created by professionals
and by the users (Twitter, LinkedIn), or the classic search engine content (Google, Bing, Yahoo!).
In this context, the industry experts that participated in the survey overall believe that the content aggregator with the most
relevant role in the market in the next four years is likely to be Netflix.
In the second position of the ranking the interviewees place Google, followed by Apple (for audio content). While the first has
13% of weighted, the latter reaches 11%.
After these three leaders, the experts of the industry mention TV platforms as relevant players in the future Portuguese
content aggregators segment. Finally, in the last position of the top 5, Twitter is placed as the unique aggregator from Social
Media segment gathering 7% of weighted answers.
63
Industry executives that participated in the survey overall believe that the content aggregator
with the most relevant role in the market in the next four years is likely to be Netflix.
Video - Netflix
20
Google
13
Audio - Apple
11
Video - TV platforms
Social Media - Twitter
8
7
C3.2 Most important content aggregators in the contents market, over the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
2.5.4. Business Models (4C)
The digitalization process in the content industry, along with the deployment of new support technologies for all types of
audiovisual content, determines the evolution of the business models that support the industry.
In such context, according to the results gathered from the survey, the business model which will account for the highest
relevance for content packagers in Portugal over the four next years, is ad-based revenue model which has a 28% of weighted
answers.
Following the leader in terms of the weighted score obtained, second position is occupied by subscription based model
(periodical, premium content, etc.). The business model based on “Pay per consumption” of digital content (i.e. pay per view,
pay per song) is placed third in the weighted ranking.
Cross-selling and up-selling of additional goods and services, along with revenue sharing model with aggregators and / or
distributors are closing the top five most relevant business models for content packagers.
According to the results gathered from the survey, the business model which will account for the highest relevance for content
packagers in Portugal over the four next years, is ad-based revenue model with 28% of weighted answers.
64
According to industry executives, ad-based revenue model is the business model which will
account for the highest relevance for content packagers in Portugal over the four next years.
28
Subscription based model (periodical, premium content, etc.)
21
“Pay per consumption” of digital content (i.e. pay per view, pay per song)
Cross-selling and up-selling of additional goods and services
Revenue sharing model with aggregators and/or distributors
17
12
11
C4.1 Most relevant business models for content packagers in Portugal in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base
Cross-industry
homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless the segment or industrial sector to which they belong.
In the arena of content aggregators, ad-based revenue models are identified by the macro-industry opinion leaders as the
most relevant model in the next four years, closely followed by “Pay per consumption” of digital content model (i.e. pay per
view, pay per song).
Subscription based model (periodical, premium content, etc.) is placed in third position. In other layer, “Razor blade” model
(low price to increase sales of complementary goods and services), rental of digital content (i.e. DVD rental), and cross-selling
and up-selling of additional goods and services, close the weighted ranking of the most relevant business models for content
aggregators.
65
Business models based on “Pay per consumption” of digital content are those that will have the greatest
impact of the market of content aggregators in Portugal in 2017 according to the opinion of the respondents.
23
“Pay per consumption” of digital content (i.e. pay per view, pay per song)
22
Subscription based model (periodical, premium content, etc.)
”Razor blade” model (low price to increase sales of complementary
goods and services)
15
11
Rental of digital content (i.e. DVD rental)
10
Cross-selling and up-selling of additional goods and services
10
C4.2 Most relevant business models for content aggregators and / or distributors in the next four years.
Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 10 interviewees answered to this question.
Cross-industry
homogeneous, regardless the industrial area to which the different actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that
interviewees from the services sector consider the alliances with Internet service providers as the third most relevant business
model for content aggregators.
66
2.5.5. Business Strategies (5C)
The business strategy based on alliances with content aggregators to offer enhanced content services has been selected as
the most valuable for the content packagers in Portugal in the next four years. The second position is occupied by strategies
focused on the creation of content delivery platforms, followed by customized content delivery.
Finally, according to the results gathered from the survey, the weighted ranking is closed by those strategies focus on specific
content for a market niche/segment; strategic alliances with other packagers to offer wide variety of content; and strategic
alliances with social platforms (Facebook, Twitter, etc.).
The strategy focus on alliances with content aggregators to offer enhanced content services
will be the most valuable for content packagers till 2017, according to the interviewees.
Alliances with content aggregators to offer enhanced content services
22
Creation of content delivery platforms
17
Customized content delivery
10
Focus on specific content market niche/segment
Strategic alliances with other packagers to offer wide variety of content
Strategic alliances with social platforms (Facebook, Twitter, etc.)
9
8
8
C5.1 Most valuables strategies for content packagers in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Cross-industry
opinions, regardless the segment to which the actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting the following differences:
opinion leaders from the services sector, as well as those from contents group, consider the development of innovative and
embedded advertising solutions linked to content (i.e. video advertisement) as the third main strategy for content packagers
in the next four years.
67
Moreover, cost cutting by sharing resources with other packagers, and mergers and acquisitions with players in other areas of
the macro-industry are identified by services and contents professionals in the top 5 of the most valuable strategies.
When focusing the analysis on the content aggregators and/or distributors, it is worth noting that the set of industry experts
consider alliances with creators/packagers to control the entire content value chain as the most valuable business strategy
in the next four years.
Secondly, although at a significant distance from the leader in terms of weighted scores obtained, respondents mention the
strategy based on the distribution of content on all possible devices.
At a third level, industry executives position alliances with other aggregators, mobile operators and/or TV operators as
relevant business strategy, followed in fourth position by the strategy aimed at reducing costs by sharing resources with other
aggregators and/or distributors.
Closing the ranking, the professionals from the industry assigns certain relevance to those business strategies tending to
distribute content on a particular device, and those related to mergers and acquisitions with players of other areas of the
macro-industry.
According to industry executives, alliances with creators/packagers to control the entire content value
chain are the most valuable business strategies for content aggregators in the next four years.
Alliances with creators/packagers to control the entire
content value chain
22
Distribution of content on all possible devices
19
Alliances with other aggregators, mobile operators and/or distributors
15
Cost cutting by sharing resources with other aggregators
and/or distributors
11
Distribution of content on a particular device
7
Mergers and acquisitions with players of other areas
of the macro-industry
7
C5.2 Most valuable business strategies for content aggregators and/or distributors in the next four years. Weighted scores
Cross-industry
Considering the results of different sectors, it is interesting to notice how the group of interviewees from the contents sector
introduces “diversification” as the third most valuable business model strategy for content aggregators and/or distributors in
Portugal in the next four years.
68
2.5.6. Key Competitive Factors (6C)
Regarding the most critical Key Competitive Factors in the contents sector in the next four years, the pool of opinion leaders
consider, with the same percentage of weighted answers, the ability to adapt the content to different digital platforms and a
strong brand positioning, as the most important factors to successfully compete in the Portuguese contents market.
Technological innovation capabilities and enhancing customer experience are place, in terms of the weighted score obtained,
in the second layer of the ranking, sharing the same punctuation (13% of weighted answers).
Finally, the professionals who participated to the questionnaire consider “Coopetition” capabilities (cooperative competition)
as relevant KCF to close the weighted ranking.
The ability to adapt the content to different digital platforms and a strong brand positioning are the
most critical Key Competitive Factors in the Portuguese content market in the next four years.
Ability to adapt the content to different digital platforms
16
16
Technological innovation capabilities
13
Enhanced customer experience
13
“Coopetition” capabilities (cooperative competition)
Capabilities to manage strategic alliances
12
10
C6 Most critical Key Competitive Factors in the contents sector in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100.
Cross-industry
Considering the results of different sectors, it is interesting to notice how the group of interviewees from the services and
network sectors introduce the capabilities to manage strategic alliances as a really important KFC in the contents sector.
In that way, industry experts from contents area consider the ability to manage business model transformation quickly, as
one of the four most important KFC for the Portuguese contents market.
69
2.5.7. Investments (7C)
Evaluating the most relevant investments in the contents sector likely to occur in the next four years, the majority of the
interviewees consider the investment of content providers in the adaptation of content to multiple devices, as the most
relevant investment strategy in the Portuguese market.
The investment of content providers in technological innovation has been instead selected by opinion leaders as the second
investment strategy with highest probability to occur and highest impact on the evolution of the Portuguese contents
ecosystem.
The fact that new global entrants will invest in the content industry as content distributors is identified, according to the
results gathered from the survey, as the third principal investment strategy.
Finally, the ranking is closed by the investment of content providers in the adaptation of content to multiple platforms, along
with the one likely to be carried out by device manufacturers in order to position themselves as systems providers in the
content value chain.
The majority of industry experts consider the investment by content providers in the adaptation of content
to multiple devices, as the most relevant investment strategy in the Portuguese in the next four years.
Content providers will invest in the adaptation of content to
multiple devices
26
Content providers will invest in technological innovation
16
New global entrants will invest in the content industry
as content distributors
13
Content providers will invest in the adptation of content
to multiple platforms
11
Devices manufacturers will invest in the content industry, positioning
themselves as systems providers in the content value chain
11
C7 Most relevant investment strategies for contents market likely to occur in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized
Cross-industry
Analyzing the results of the survey at a deeper level from a sectorial viewpoint, it is worth highlighting that opinion leaders
belonging to the area of networks consider that devices manufacturers will invest in the content industry not only for
positioning themselves as systems providers in the content value chain, but also as content creators and distributors.
Furthermore, interviewees from contents area consider the investment in the digitalization of traditional content formats (i.e.
paper books) as the third most relevant strategy for the sector.
altran.pt

telecommunications macro-sector2014-2017

Transcrição

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