Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012

Consumer Credit Worldwide
at year end 2012
Introduction
For the fifth consecutive year, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance has
published the Consumer Credit Overview, its yearly report on the
international consumer finance market.
11th, July 2013
www.ca-consumerfinance.com
[email protected]
Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Summary
Worldwide outstanding consumer loans can be estimated at €6,383 billion at the end of 2012. This represents an increase of 5.9% over the
year, i.e. more than in 2011. However, adjusted for inflation, the increase is more modest at around 2%.
The market is still characterised by a very predominant weighting of developed countries and North America in particular. But the weighting of
developed countries is tending to decline in favour of emerging markets.
Outstanding loans increased only slightly in developed countries.
 Among these countries, only Canada and the United States saw a significant rise in outstanding loans in 2012 (+2.8% and +5.8%
respectively, bringing growth in North America to 5.5%).
 The European Union went through a further period of recession, resulting in a fall in outstanding loans in 2012. Excluding Russia and
Turkey, outstanding loans in Europe fell by 1.7%.
 Outstanding loans were down 1.4% in Australia for regulatory reasons, meaning a fall of 1% for the Oceania region as a whole.
 In Japan, the 0.6% fall in outstanding loans was due to deflation.
Meanwhile, outstanding loans rose sharply in the majority of emerging markets.
 Economic growth in these countries has been accompanied by more than proportional growth in outstanding loans. A certain level of
development is necessary for the consumer finance market to emerge. Once this threshold has been reached - estimated at €2,500 per
capita - outstanding loans increase at a rapid rate.
 Despite an economic slowdown in 2012, growth in outstanding consumer loans has not weakened in emerging markets. In 2012, the
strongest growth was in Russia (+43%), Argentina (+35%), Thailand and Azerbaijan (+32%). In some countries, however, growth in
outstanding loans is partly due to continuing inflation (Argentina).
Outstanding loans per capita are estimated at €910 at the end of 2012. There are still considerable discrepancies between each continent (€96
in Africa, €5,620 in North America). Growth in outstanding loans in emerging markets is brought down by population growth in these countries.
Excluding inflation, 2012 was the first year that outstanding loans per capita increased since 2008.
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Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Methodology & disclaimer
The outstanding consumer loans figures provided in this report come from central banks or national statistics offices.
These figures have been collected by research and consulting firm Asterès, which has endeavoured to respect a uniform product and market field:
 The figures cover banking and non-banking organisations (i.e. all credit institutions).
 They include - as far as the source data allow - bank overdrafts, but exclude mortgages, even for everyday consumer purposes.
 To allow for a market comparison, figures have been converted into euros at the average prevailing exchange rate for 2012.
This can explain some major variations in outstandings from one year to the next. For example, Asia accounts for a larger proportion of
international outstanding loans this year due to the rise in Asian currencies against the euro. Past outstandings are converted at the same
exchange rate, meaning that growth rates are representative of the market and not impacted by variations in exchange rates.
The figures provided in this report should be regarded as estimates, which cannot be guaranteed to be fully accurate.
The quality of statistics taken from the primary source - often central banks - varies. The field of non-banking operators is unequally covered. Lastly,
these statistics are often revised. In the absence of sufficiently accurate public data, outstanding loan data for a certain number of emerging
markets - such as China, Algeria etc. - have been estimated by Asterès.
For the requirements of this report, the world has been divided into six regions:
•
•
•
North America
South America
Europe
•
•
•
Africa
Asia and the Middle East
Oceania
Most of these regions are defined in their usual geographical sense. However, the following points should be noted:
 In addition to the 27 countries of the European Union, Europe includes: Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, Ukraine, Croatia, Serbia, Russia and
Turkey.
 Mexico is treated as part of North America. South America includes countries in Central Europe.
 The Middle East is treated as part of Asia.
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Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Map of the international consumer credit market
Outstanding consumer loans at end-2012
Worldwide market: €6,383bn
Sources: Central banks, Asterès
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Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Outstanding loans are mainly in the northern hemisphere
 North America is the largest consumer finance market, accounting for 41% of the world’s total outstanding consumer loans. The United States is
very predominant in this region, representing 83% of outstanding loans for the region or one-third of outstanding loans worldwide. It is followed by
Asia-Middle East (29%) and Europe (22%).
 Developed countries therefore still account for the majority of the world’s outstanding loans. The weighting of Asia-Middle East is due to the
presence in the region of developed countries such as Japan, Taiwan, South Korea and Israel, as well as the demographic weighting of China,
which makes it a large market, despite a still modest level of outstanding loans per capita.
 South America, Africa and Oceania still account for a very small proportion of total outstanding loans worldwide. Three-quarters of African
countries have a GDP of less than €2,500 per capita. Below this threshold, the consumer finance market struggles to emerge. In South America,
most countries are above this threshold but are not yet at the level of GDP (around €8,000 per capita) above which outstanding loans per capita
become significant.
Proportion of worldwide outstanding loans (%)
2012 outstanding consumer loans by continent (€bn)
North America
2 603
Being updated
Asia and Middle East
1 870
Europe
313
Africa
103
Europe
22%
North America
41%
Asia and Middle
East
29%
94
Sources: Central banks, Asterès estimates
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Oceania
1%
1 400
South America
Oceania
South America
5%
Africa
2%
Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Year-on-year growth in outstanding consumer loans at end-2012
Worldwide market: +5.9%
Sources: Central banks, Asterès
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Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Acceleration in growth in outstanding loans in 2012
 Worldwide outstanding consumer loans increased by 5.9%
between the end of 2011 and the end of 2012. Adjusted for
inflation, outstanding loans increased by around 2%.
Change in worldwide outstanding loans (€bn)
(currencies converted at the average exchange rate for
2012)
+5.9%
 Growth in outstanding loans was stronger than in 2010 and 2011.
+4.3%
 The rate of growth in outstanding loans varies considerably
depending on the continent. Essentially,
outstanding
loans
increased sharply in emerging markets and stagnated or declined
in developed countries - with the exception of the United States and
Canada.
6 383
+4.7%
6 030
-1.0%
5 781
 Asia and the Middle East therefore contributed 38% to worldwide
growth in 2012 (i.e. an additional €133bn). The contribution from
North America was the same, followed by South America (11%),
Europe (10%) and Africa (4%).
5 587
2008
5 523
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sources: Central banks, Asterès
These figures may vary from one year to the next due to revisions made by the central
banks and changes in exchange rates.
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Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Slowdown in Latin America, acceleration in Africa
Growth in outstanding loans relates primarily to the region’s economic growth and how well developed the consumer finance market is.
Regulatory changes can also have a significant impact on outstanding loans.
 Economic growth in Europe was weak in 2012. The European Union experienced another period of recession and outstanding consumer loans
fell by 1.9%. Excluding Russia and Turkey, outstanding loans fell by 1.7% in Europe in 2012.
 In Australia, meanwhile, growth was robust. While the level of outstanding loans decreased in the country - and therefore in Oceania, as other
countries account for a very small proportion of the region’s loans - this was because of new regulatory requirements that came into force in
2011.
 The United States saw a return to more vigorous economic growth, resulting in acceleration in outstanding consumer loans in North America.
 Economic growth slowed down in South America. Furthermore, outstanding loans had risen by such an extent during previous years that
growth of more than 20% was no longer sustainable. Growth in outstanding loans therefore slowed down.
Growth in outstanding loans by region
2010
2011
2012
13,5%
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Sources: Central banks, Asterès
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14,9%
Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Change in outstanding loans by country
In 2012, the strongest growth in outstanding loans was in
Russia (+43%), followed by Argentina (+35%). The sharpest
fall was in Ireland (-14%).
Growth in outstanding loans by region
In the Asia-Middle East region, Japan constitutes an
exception, with outstanding loans in the country having fallen
more or less steadily over the last 20 or so years. Japan is in
a situation of deflation, prompting households to reduce their
debts. In the majority of other countries in the region,
outstanding consumer loans are on the increase, with
moderate growth in the most developed countries (+2% in
Israel, +3% in South Korea), or very strong growth in
emerging markets (+32% in Thailand and Azerbaijan, +18%
in China - including Macao, Hong Kong and Taiwan).
Generally speaking, in a large number of emerging markets
in Africa, Asia and even Europe, the consumer finance
market is still taking off. This means exponential growth in
outstanding loans, even when there is a slight slowdown in
overall economic growth. However, these countries are not
sheltered from potentially significant fluctuations. Regulatory
changes in particular can have a pronounced impact. Algeria
represents an extreme case in this regard, with the country
having banned consumer loans in 2009.
Data not available, country estimated to have grown
Sources: Central banks, Asterès
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Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Outstanding loans per capita at end-2012
Worldwide average: €910
Sources: Central banks, Asterès
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Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Still major disparities in outstanding loans per capita
At the end of 2012, the average level of worldwide outstanding consumer loans was €910, representing a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.
Outstanding loans per capita are highest in North America (€5,620). The United States is just above this regional average (€6,888 per capita).
Canada has the highest level of outstanding loans per capita in the world (€11,677). Average outstanding loans are much lower in Mexico
(€355).
Outstanding loans per capita stand at €2,615 in Oceania, a more uniform region (€3,628 in Australia, €1,953 in New Zealand).
Average outstanding loans amount to €1,706 in Europe. Levels vary considerably across the continent: outstanding loans per capita are highest
in Norway (€6,410) and lowest in Ukraine (€272). The market is still not very developed in Russia, with outstanding loans per capita of €989, i.e.
half the average level for the European Union (€2,099).
Outstanding loans per capita at end-2012 (in €)
Outstanding loans per capita amount to €451 in Asia-Middle East. The
greatest disparities are to be found in this region. The market is not
very well developed in India (€47 per capita, but with pronounced
inequalities by area). Meanwhile, average outstanding loans per capita
in Singapore stand at €7,495.
Outstanding loans per capita amount to €651 in South America.
Levels are relatively uniform across the continent. In most large
countries, the consumer finance market is at an intermediate stage of
growth.
5 620
North America
2 615
Oceania
1 706
Europe
South America
651
Asia and Middle East
However, the market is not very advanced in Africa, where outstanding
loans are estimated at €96 per capita (less than €40 excluding South
Africa).
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Africa
451
96
Sources: Central banks, Asterès
Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Top 15: growth in emerging markets, decline in developed markets
Outstanding consumer loans for the world’s top 15 markets
(€bn at average exchange rate for 2012)
United States
2162
Japan
714
China*
401
United Kingdom
225
Brazil
213
South Korea
177
France
149
Russia
141
Italy
110
84
80
Turkey
78
Spain
71
Sources: Central banks * Asterès estimate Outstanding loans for China include Macao,
Hong Kong and Taiwan.
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
Several emerging markets have moved up
one or two positions: Turkey has moved from
15th to 14th place, Indonesia from 14th to 12th
place, and Russia from 12th to 10th place.

Several developed markets have fallen one
or two positions: Spain has moved from 13th
to 15th place, Australia from 11th to 13th place,
and Italy from 11th to 12th place.
251
Germany
Australia
The top 15 markets remain the same but their order has
changed:
433
Canada
Indonesia
The United States is still the world’s largest consumer finance
market, with outstanding loans valued at €2,162bn at the end
of 2012.
In the absence of official data, outstanding loan data for China
has been estimated. This estimate has been revised upwards.
The Chinese market is growing rapidly (+18% in 2012) and is
now the world’s third-largest consumer finance market.
Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Focus on Asian emerging markets
Outstanding consumer loans per capita
( €)
Consumer finance is growing rapidly in emerging markets in
Asia. Outstanding loans per capita remain low but are rising
rapidly.
600
The level of outstanding loans per capita reflects how developed
the country is.
Outstanding loans remain low when GDP per capita is below a
threshold that can be valued at €2,500 per capita (in 2012). India
and the Philippines are still below this threshold, while China
and Indonesia have passed this threshold.
Once certain growth markers have been passed, the pace of
market development speeds up, as is demonstrated by the
change in average outstanding loans in Thailand, where GDP
per capita is slightly higher than in China.
Outstanding loans per capita should therefore increase
significantly in China and Indonesia over the next few years,
while the market is expected to begin to take off in India and the
Philippines.
Thailand
500
Indonesia
400
300
China incl. Macao,
Taiwan, Hong Kong
200
India
100
Philippines
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Sources: Central banks, Asterès
NB: outstanding consumer loan data for China have been estimated. The Bank of China
no longer publishes consumer finance statistics (its data combine consumer finance and
home loans).
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Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
Focus on South America
Outstanding consumer loans per capita
( €)
The sharp rise in outstanding loans in South America was
confirmed in 2012. The continent is at an intermediate
stage of development. Outstanding loans per capita are
between €400 and €1,200, i.e. much higher than in
emerging countries in Africa and Asia (€50 to €600 per
capita).
1200
Market growth slowed down slightly in 2012 due to a
slowdown in Brazil, the region’s largest market.
800
Chile
1000
Brazil
Meanwhile, growth in outstanding loans per capita was
more pronounced in Chile and Argentina.
Uruguay
600
400
Chile is the fastest-growing market. One-third of growth
in Argentina relates to the continuing high rate of inflation
(around 10%). Inflation is more moderate in other countries.
Argentina
200
Peru
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Sources: Central banks, Asterès
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2012
Consumer Credit Worldwide at year end 2012
A wide variety of companies and brands
Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance is a key player in the European consumer finance market with €73.2 billion of consumer credit outstandings
under management at end-2012.
Through its subsidiaries, Crédit Agricole Consumer Finance operates in twenty European countries (Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic,
Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden,
Switzerland and the UK), as well as in Saudi Arabia, Morocco and China.
At end-2012, two-thirds of outstandings under management came from international operations.
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