Demographic Outlook

Transcrição

Demographic Outlook

ISSN 1977-0375
Methodologies and
working papers
Demographic Outlook
National reports on the demographic
developments in 2005
2007 edition
EUROPE AN COMMISSION
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Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2007
ISBN 92-79-04622-3
ISSN 1977-0375
Catalogue number: KS-RA-07-001-EN-N
Theme: Population and social conditions
Collection: Methodologies and working papers
© European Communities, 2007
Demographic Outlook
National reports on the demographic
developments in 2005
The views expressed in this document are of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of
the European Commission
Table of contents
Foreword........................................................................................................................................ 5
Czech Republic............................................................................................................................. 6
Denmark.......................................................................................................................................... 9
Germany........................................................................................................................................ 11
Estonia............................................................................................................................................ 13
Spain................................................................................................................................................. 16
Ireland........................................................................................................................................... 20
Italy................................................................................................................................................. 22
Cyprus............................................................................................................................................. 25
Latvia.............................................................................................................................................. 28
Lithuania....................................................................................................................................... 32
Luxembourg................................................................................................................................ 35
Hungary......................................................................................................................................... 38
Malta............................................................................................................................................... 42
Netherlands............................................................................................................................... 44
AUSTRIA........................................................................................................................................... 47
Portugal........................................................................................................................................ 52
SLOVENIA......................................................................................................................................... 56
Slovakia......................................................................................................................................... 60
Finland........................................................................................................................................... 64
Sweden............................................................................................................................................ 66
UNITED KINGDOM......................................................................................................................... 69
Bulgaria........................................................................................................................................ 72
Romania.......................................................................................................................................... 75
Croatia........................................................................................................................................... 78
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia......................................................... 80
Turkey............................................................................................................................................ 83
Liechtenstein.............................................................................................................................. 86
Norway............................................................................................................................................ 88
Switzerland................................................................................................................................ 91
Demographic outlook − National reports on the demographic developments in 2005
Foreword
Giampaolo Lanzieri
Every year Eurostat, in co-operation with the Council of Europe and the United Nations Statistics
Division (UNSD), carries out a data collection on demographic issues over 37 countries. On that
occasion, the national statistical authorities also provide a brief report on the main issues characterising
the demographic development in their countries. Such reports provide useful insights and help on the
interpretation of the national demographic data.
These reports are hereinafter presented in this first edition of a new series of annual Eurostat publications
on demographic developments in Europe. The geographical coverage is limited to those countries
that have provided a report on demographic developments in 2005 and includes EU Member States,
acceding and candidate countries as well as EFTA countries. Interested readers can find additional
information in the series of Statistics in Focus devoted to demography, in particular the “Population
in Europe 2005: first results”.
I would thank all the authors of the national reports, without whom this publication would not have
been possible. Special thanks to Rosemarie Andersson, who has taken care of the linguistic and layout revision, and to all colleagues that have contributed to this publication.
Czech Republic
Krystof Zeman
Population
The number of population as at 31 December 2005 was 10 251 079, by 30 502 more than by the end of
2004. The population has been increasing since 2002, due to the positive net migration outnumbering
the population loss by natural decrease. However, thanks to the slightly increased fertility the excess
of the number of deaths over the number of live births of 5 727 was the lowest one since 1994, while
the net migration of 36 229 persons was the highest one since the establishment of the independent
Czech Republic in 1993.
The natural decrease triggered by low fertility rates is accompanied by the continuation of population
ageing. The proportion of children below age of 15 dropped to 14.6% of population in 2005, while
the share of aged 65 and over was 14.2%. In 1990 the respective proportions were 21.2% of child
component and 12.6% of those aged 65.
Fertility
The number of live births of 102 211 exceeded for the first time since 1994 the level of 100
thousand. However, the total fertility rate still sustained below the lowest-low level on 1.28
children per woman. The fertility postponement is characterised by the increase in the mean age of
mothers by about 4 years from 1990 to 28.6 years in 2005 (26.6 for the first child) and by the shift
of the maximum fertility age from 20-22 to 28-29 years. The proportion of children born out of
wedlock increased from 8.6% in 1990 to 31.7% in 2005, while this share was even higher for first
children (40%), for women with basic education (68%) and varied significantly among the Local
Administrative Units level 2 (from 18 to 59%). The share of premarital conceptions (first marital
childbirths delivered until 8 months after marriage) dropped from around 50% in the early 1990s
to 31.7% in 2005.
Besides the sharp drop in marital fertility rates, the lowest-low level of fertility is largely ascribed
to the postponement of fertility. In following years a more pronounced increase of fertility levels is
expected, as the women who recently still postpone childbearing will reach the age around 30. Already
in 2005 were 21% of first children and 38% of all children born to women older than age 30.
The number of abortions was 40 023 in 2005. As compared to 1990, the number of abortions decreased
by more than two thirds, due to the spread of modern contraception and the information on sex and
reproductive health. The number of induced abortions was 26 453, of which 78% were performed by
the means of vacuum aspiration (mini-interruptions).
Mortality
The number of deaths in 2005 was 107 938, from which 347 were infant deaths. The slight increase of
the life expectancy at birth to 72.9 years for men and 79.1 years for women was recorded. Compared
to 1990, the life expectancy increased by 5.3 years for men and by 3.7 years for women, the gender
gap thus lowered from 7.8 to 6.2 years. The rise in life expectancy is ascribed to the improvement of
health conditions among infants and among older people, especially those aged 60-80 years, while the
mortality conditions of youth are stagnating since the 1990s. From the view of the causes of death, the
highest improvement was registered on the field of circulatory diseases and to a lesser extent due to the
better diagnostics and treatability of the cancer. However, currently about three-fourths of deaths are still
ascribed to the diseases of the circulatory system and neoplasms. The infant mortality rate was 3.4 ‰
and the level of neonatal mortality was 2.0 deaths before reaching 28 days of life per 1000 live births.
Migration
Since 2002 the external net migration has been positive and growing, reaching the highest number
of 36 229 (60 294 immigrants and 24 065 emigrants) in 2005. Most of the immigrants are citizens of
Ukraine, Slovakia and Vietnam. The main destination country for emigrants was Ukraine.
The number of foreign citizens legally living in the Czech Republic was 278 312 in 2005, amounting
to 2.7% of population.
Marriage and divorce
The number of marriages stagnated on 51 829 (by 382 more than in 2004), indicating low interest in
marriages accompanied by the increasing popularity of cohabitation, especially among young people
up to 30 years. The nuptiality table indicators signal that under current circumstances about 31% of
women and 37% of men would eventually stay un-married. The trend of postponing marriages until
higher age led to an increase in the mean age at first marriage to 28.1 for women and 30.7 for men,
i.e. by 6.7 years since 1990.
The number of divorces in 2005 was 1 772 lower than in 2004, reaching the number 31 288. Even
after culmination of number of divorces in 2004 (33 thousands), the level of divorce rates in the
Czech Republic is one of the highest in Europe; according to current rates the proportion of marriages
that would be finally divorced is 47.3%. The mean duration of disrupted marriage was 12.2 years
and 61.4% of divorces affected minors. Thus, recently every third to fourth minor child in the Czech
Republic experiences the divorce of own parents.
Demographic projections
Currently no new demographic projection was published in the Czech Republic. The last demographic
projection by the Czech Statistical Office was published in 2003. According to the expectations,
the fast increase in the proportion of retired persons will start after 2009, when numerous cohorts
born by the end and after the World War II will be entering the retirement age. As a subsequence of
population ageing, by the 2030 almost 23% of population would be at post-productive age compared
to the contemporary share of 14%, while the children segment would further drop to 12-13%. Besides
the shift of the retirement age, important political decisions dealing with the problem of population
ageing are being still delayed in the Czech Republic.
Denmark
Anita Lange
Population
In 2005 the population reached 5 427 459, an increase of 16 054 or 0.29%. Net immigration was
responsible for 41% of the increase.
Although the average age of the population during the last ten years has increased from 38.8 to
39.7 years, the ageing ratio (persons of 65 years or older per 100 persons below the age of 15) has
decreased from 86 to 81. This is a consequence of an increasing percentage of persons 65 years or
older from 15.1% to 15.2% and an increasing proportion of children aged 0 to 14 years from 17.5%
to 18.7%.
Non-nationals make up 5% of the population. The biggest group of these is Turkish, (11% of all
non-nationals) and 13% with citizenship in another Nordic country (Finland, Iceland, Norway and
Sweden). Other big national groups are: Iraq (7%); Germany (5%); United Kingdom (5%) and Bosnia
and Herzegovina (5%).
Fertility
In 2005 the number of live births was 64 282. The total fertility rate was 1.802 which is a little
higher than the average for the preceding 5 years (1.757). In the same span of years the average age
of mothers giving birth continued to increase from 29.7 years in 2000 to 30.2 years in 2005. The net
reproduction rate was 873 per 1 000 or 12.7% below replacement level.
Mortality
In 2005 the number of deaths was 54 962. Life expectancy at birth has gone up steadily resulting in
an increase for men from 74.5 years in 2000/01 to 75.6 years in 2004/05. For women the increase is
from 79.2 to 80.2 years. This development follows a period of a slower increase in life expectancy
and even a tendency towards stagnation for women.
Migration
In 2005 52 458 persons immigrated to Denmark and 45 869 persons emigrated resulting in a
net migration of 6 589 persons. The average figure for the previous ten-year period was 53 064
immigrations, 41 138 emigrations giving a net migration of 11 926 persons. Thus, even though
immigration and emigration have increased, net immigration has decreased. The net immigration
of foreign citizens in 2005 was 10 369. For Danish citizens the number of emigrations exceeded the
immigrations by 3 780 persons.
According to the 2006 population projection, the population in Denmark on 1 January 2050 will be
5.6 million.
10
Germany
Martin Conrad
Population
Germany had a population of 82 500 849 on 1 January 2005. This constitutes a slight drop of
approx. 30 000 persons against the previous year. The trend of 2004 continued in 2005 with a
further drop of ca. 63 000 persons. 2004 and 2005 were therefore two of the few calendar years
in which a decline in population size was recorded. This decrease took place because the surplus
of deaths over births, amounting to 112 600 in 2004 and 114 400 in 2005, was not compensated
by the positive migration balance of 81 800 in 2004 and 79 000 in 2005 as had happened in the
preceding years.
Around 7 289 000 foreigners lived in Germany on 31.12.2005. The share of foreigners as against
the total population is 8.8 %. The size of the foreign population was constant in comparison to 2004
(7 288 000). These data come from the current statistical update of population. A second source of
data on the foreign population is based on the Central Register of Foreigners, according to which the
number of foreigners was 6 755 000 at the end of 2005. The notable difference in comparison with
the current population update is due to a different coverage of the foreign population and to different
reporting paths.
Fertility
The fertility rate in Germany remains low. The number of live births fell to 685 800 in 2005, whilst it
was still 767 000 in 2000. For 2005 a total fertility rate of 1.34 was recorded.
In 2005, 29.2 % of all children in Germany were born to women who were not married at the time of
the birth of their child. This trend has undergone a marked increase since the start of the nineties. In
the eastern part of Germany nearly 60% of all children are born to unmarried mothers.
The trend towards starting the family formation phase at a later age has continued. In 2004 women
were 30.9 on average when their child was born. The mean age at birth of the first child (in Germany
within the current marriage) reached 29.6 years in 2004.
Mortality
The results of the 2003/2005 life table show an average life expectancy of a new-born girl of 81.78
years. For new-born boys, a life expectancy of 76.21 years was recorded. The increasing trend in
life expectancy continues. The life expectancy of the elderly is also still rising. Women’s further life
expectancy at age 60 is 24.25 years, and men’s 20.27 years. A reduction is also being observed in the
11
number of children who died before the age of one. It was 2 700 in 2005. The infant mortality rate
hence fell from 4.1 to 3.9 in comparison to the previous year.
Migration
Germany also had a positive migration balance in 2005, which at 79 000 persons is, however, slightly
lower than in the previous years (2004: 82 500). 707 400 persons moved to Germany in 2005 and
628 400 left the country. The highest number of immigrants is from Poland (labour migration), the
Russian Federation and Turkey. There were considerable emigration flows towards Poland, Turkey
and Italy.
388 500 marriages were registered in 2005. Compared with 2004 the number of marriages decreased
slowly by 7 500.
The number of divorces was nearly constant in 2004 compared with previous years (2004: 213 700).
The total divorce rate reached a level of 0.46. 2004 is the first year since the beginning of the nineties
without a growing divorce trend.
The share of divorced marriages with children rose again after a downward trend in the nineties.
50.1 % of divorced marriages had children in 2004. A total of 168 900 children were affected by their
parents’ divorce.
Government decisions and developments in legislation
The Act to Expand Day-care for Children under three (Gesetz zum Ausbau der Tagesbetreuung für
Kinder unter drei Jahren), also known as the Day-care Expansion Act (Tagesbetreuungsausbaugesetz
- TAG), has been in force since 2005. The intention pursued with the Federal Act is to define the
framework for vital improvements in state-run child-care. The goal is to:
•
•
•
create 230 000 additional places in kindergartens and crèches, and in full day-care, by 2010;
improve the quality of child-care by developing children’s abilities early, and
offer parents options between a variety of care arrangements. Day-care is to be expanded and
improved by means of skill-building measures.
12
Estonia
Ülle Valgma
Population
The estimated population at 1 January 2006 was 1 344 684. Compared to 1 January 2005 this is
approximately 0.2% lower. In 2004 the natural increase was -3 693, in 2005 -2 966. In 2000–2003 the
absolute value of natural increase was over 5 000.
In 2005 the percentage of under 15-year-olds was 15.3 and over 65-year-olds was 16.6. In 2004 these
percentages were 15.7 and 16.4, respectively. During recent years the share of persons aged 15–64
has increased by some tenths of percentage in a year. The share of women in the population has been
stable – 53.9%. The population change for 2000–2005 includes only the natural increase.
Fertility
In recent years fertility has increased. In 2005, 14 350 children were born. If in 2004 the number of
births was about 1 000 larger than in 2003, then in 2005 the number of births increased only by 358
compared to the previous year. The crude birth rate was 10.66 and the total fertility rate was 1.50 in
2005. In 2004 the TFR was 1.47.
More and more women postpone childbirth to older age. Fertility rate among under 25-year-old
women is decreasing and among over 25-year-old it is increasing. In 2005 the age-specific fertility
rate was for the first time bigger among 30–34-year-old woman than among 20–24-year-old. The
mean age of mother at childbirth is also continuously increasing. In 2005 the mean age of mother
at childbirth and the mean age of mother at the birth of the first child were respectively 28.2 and
25.2 years.
Since the number of registered marriages is small, fewer children are born to parents who are legally
married. In 2005 legitimate births accounted for only 41.5%. Though this does not mean that the
remaining children are born to one parent only. In addition to married parents, the data of both parents
are entered onto the birth record is 47.0% of all births.
The number of abortions also decreased in 2005. There were 11 835 abortions, including 9 610 legally
induced abortions. The number of abortions has been smaller than the number of births since 2003.
The number of legally induced abortions has been smaller than the number of births since 2000. In
2005 there were 67.0 legally induced abortions per 100 live births.
13
Mortality
In 2004 the number of deaths was 17 658, in 2005 –17 316. The absolute number of deaths is
continuously declining. The number of deaths per 1 000 population (crude mortality rate) decreased
in 2004–2005 among women and men. Diseases of the circulatory system, followed by malignant
neoplasms, injuries and poisonings, caused more than half of deaths.
The number of infant deaths was 90 in 2004 and 78 in 2005. The infant mortality rate (the number of
infant deaths per 1 000 live births) was 6.4 and 5.4, respectively. The number of stillbirths increased
sharply in 2005 (63 in 2004 compared to 88 in 2005). The rate of stillbirths per 1 000 births was 4.5
and 6.1, respectively in 2004 and 2005.
The life expectancy of men in 2005 is considerably higher compared to 2004, increasing a little more
than by one year to the age 67.27. Life expectancy of women increased less to the age 78.14 years.
Migration
The migration data for the period 2000-2005 are not published as the data on registered changes of
the place of residence do not cover all the migration events and the recommended definitions on
migration statistics cannot be used for these data.
In 2004 the number of both marriages and divorces increased. 6 009 marriages were contracted and
there were 4 158 divorces. The crude marriage rate was 4.6 and the crude divorce rate was 3.1.
The percentage of first marriages remained the same. 69.7% of newly married men and 70.8% of
newly married women registered their first marriage. The mean age of men and women at first
marriage continued to increase. The mean age of women and men at first marriage was 26.1 and 28.7
years respectively.
About one-fifth of divorced persons are repeatedly divorced. In 2004 there were slightly less repeat
divorces for women than for men. During the last years the percentage of divorced couples with
common under 18-year-old children has fallen. In 2004 such couples accounted for 57.7% of the total
number of divorces.
The projection period is covered until 2050 and four main scenarios based on different assumptions
have been worked out: the first, if fertility and mortality will remain constant; the second, if moderate
increases in fertility concur with moderate decreases in mortality; the third, if the main change in
fertility and mortality will occur at the mid of the projection period (with the net international migration
positive, negative or zero) and fourth, if fertility will remain constant, but mortality will decrease.
14
A complement to the Family Law Act applied starting from 1 December 2001 allows ministers of
religion to compile marriage records and issue marriage certificates. Starting from 1 January 2004 the
Aliens Law includes the obligation of an alien having a residence permit in Estonia to register their
place of residence in the Population Register within one month of their arrival in Estonia. Starting
from 27 May 2005 the Population Register Act includes the obligation of any person who changes his
or her place of residence in Estonia to register the new place of residence in the Population Register.
They should inform the municipality within 30 days of their arrival in the new place of residence.
15
Spain
Population
Population figures for the 2001 Census showed an important increase for the corresponding intercensal
period: between 1991 and 2001, population in Spain experienced an increase of 5.1% for the whole
period, that is, 1 975 000 more inhabitants in the last Census than in the previous one. Total population
according to 1st November 2001 Census was 40 847 371.
Population estimate (now-cast) for 2006 year is 43 758 250 inhabitants, being the estimated increase
during the year 2005 about 720 215 inhabitants.
Those increases have been mainly due to migration. Figures on net immigration have risen considerably
from 1998. Also, the total fertility rate has stopped decreasing since 1999. Mortality rates continue
their favourable trend.
In 1980, the number of people aged 65 and over was 4 230 000 persons. This number has increased
by slightly more than a million in the following ten years (1991 Census). The figure for 2001 Census
was 6 959 000 persons aged 65 and plus. This means that the percentage of the population aged 65
and older rose from 11.2 in 1980, to 13.8 in 1990 and reached 17.0 in 2001.
The estimated figure for 2006 is 7 308 000 persons, 16.7%, aged 65 and plus.
Fertility
The number of live births in Spain registered an important decrease from the late seventies to the
early nineties. In 1980 there were 571 000 births and in 1991 there were less than 400 000.
In the second half of the nineties, birth rate trends have changed and during the nineties, the decrease
has slowed down. Since 1995, it has stabilized to some extent. From 1999 up to now the number of
births has begun to increase.
The recent increase in the percentage of foreign women in Spain, a population with a young agestructure, has made an important contribution to this increase. In 2004, the number of live births was
455 000 being the crude 10.65 ‰ inhabitants. Provisional figures for 2005 are, respectively, 466 000
and 10.7 ‰.
The total number of live births outside marriage has been increasing from 22 000 in 1980 to 114 000
in 2004 (respectively, 3.9% and 25.1% of the total births).
In terms of fertility, the decreasing number of births means that the average number of children per
woman decreased during the eighties to reach a level that was almost 40.0% below the replacement
16
level. Thus, while in 1980 the total fertility rate was 2.2, it was down to 1.36 in 1990. Total fertility
rate continued decreasing during the nineties, reaching its lowest value in 1998, being 1.16 children
per woman (that is, 45% below the replacement level). In 2004, the latest year for which final figures
on births are available, total fertility rate was 1.33; the estimated figure for 2005 year is 1.34.
Observed specific fertility rates, during 1998-2004, have shown a certain recovery at all ages except
those ages around 25-32 years old.
Recent development of the mean age at childbearing shows an increasing trend: It was 28.9 years in
1990 year and 30.9 in 2004 year.
Mortality
During the eighties and nineties, the number of deaths as well as the crude mortality rate, showed an
increasing trend, due to the ageing process of the Spanish population.
In 1980, 290 000 deaths were recorded, being the corresponding crude rate 7.7 ‰ inhabitants. In
1990 year, 333 000 deaths and a rate of 8.57 ‰ were recorded. Last available final figures registered
372 000 deaths and a crude rate of 8.71 ‰ for 2004 year. Provisional figures for 2005 are 387 000
deaths and a crude rate of 8.92 ‰.
The number of deaths among children under one year of age was halved during the eighties, as a
result of the lower number of births and the decreasing infant mortality. The infant mortality rate
has decreased from 12.3 ‰ deaths of children aged less than one year per 1000 live births in 1980
to 3.99 ‰ in 2004.
Life expectancy at birth continues its favourable trend. Last available figures, calculated according to
deaths observed in 2003 and 2004 years, were 76.68 years for men and 83.21 for women.
Migration
The flows of net immigration (arrivals less departures) in the country, including Spaniards and
foreigners, showed a total amount of about 170 000 arrivals in the 1981-1990 period.
During the period 1991-1996, an annual average of 35 000 net arrivals were registered, followed by
spectacular increases in the following years. In fact, figures for 1997 and 1998 were, respectively,
64 000 and 123 000; for the year 2000 there were 360 000.
Observed figures for 2004 and 2005 are, respectively, 629 000 and 651 000.
As a high proportion of these entrances are foreign citizens, the percentage of foreign residents in
Spain increases notably from about 0.5% of the total population in 1980, to 1.1% at the end of 1990,
to 2.2% at the end of 2000.
17
Foreign resident proportion reached 3.8% in the 2001 Census. Estimated figure at mid-year 2005
is 8.5%.
The number of marriages and the corresponding crude marriage rate showed a decreasing trend for a
large part of the nineties. However, according to the latest available figures, since 1996 this decline
has stopped. In 2004, 216 000 marriages were recorded being the corresponding crude rate 5.1 ‰.
According to the provisional figures, the number of marriages in 2005 was 209 000 and the crude rate
4.8 ‰.
The proportion of first marriages is decreasing for both sexes, but their share of the total number of
marriages is still high: 91.0% and 92.2%, respectively for men and women (2004 figures).
Total first marriage rates show a similar trend. In 1990, 0.70 first marriages per woman and 0.68
marriages per man were obtained. The corresponding figures for 1997 were 0.59 and 0.57 respectively.
The latest available figures for 2004 are 0.58 and 0.54 respectively for women and men.
Since the beginning of the eighties, the mean age at first marriage has been increasing: In 1980 it was
26.2 for men and 23.9 for women. Corresponding figures for 1990 were 27.8 and 25.6; for 2004 year
they reached 31.2 and 29.2, respectively for men and women.
After the Divorce Act was passed in June 1981, 9 500 divorces were registered in a period of six
months, with a crude divorce rate of 0.3 ‰. In 1982, the number of divorces was 20 000 and the rate
was 0.6 per thousand inhabitants. Between 1981 and 1989, the average annual number of divorces
was 20 000 and the crude rate 0.5 per thousand inhabitants, with a slight increase from the year 1985
onwards. The number of divorces in 2004 was 51 000, that is, 1.2 per thousand inhabitants.
The number of consensual unions were 221 000 in the 1991 Census. This figure has notably increased,
reaching 564 000 in the 2001 Census. New increases are expected from the year 2002 onwards.
Intercensus population figures for the 1991-2001 period have been updated, for the total, the
autonomous communities and the provinces populations.
Two population scenarios have been established under different hypothesis on net migration flows.
The components method has been used, being time horizon the year 2060.
The difficulties inherent to immigration measure has made necessary to calculate now-casts, according
to successive available data on migration flows. These now-casts are available from 1st January 2002
to 1st July 2006.
18
On January 2000, a new Foreigners Act was passed. Its main objectives were the rights and liberties of
foreigners in Spain and their social integration. It also established the procedure for the regularization
of foreign people who were in Spain before 1st June 1999 and who had applied for (or already had)
a working and residence permit. As a consequence, about 240 000 demands for regularization were
presented in 2000.
Another process for regularization of foreigners who could prove to have deep-rooted links with the
country was carried out during 2001.
Last regularization process of the foreign residents in Spain took place in 2005 (from March to May).
It was addressed to non-European Union citizens without a residence permit, who were registered in
Padron (Spanish population municipality registers) before August 2004.
About 700 000 non European Union foreigners applied for this regularisation; 90% of them have been
solved favourably.
As far as the situation of families is concerned, an Act was passed in January 2000 which included
measures to improve family protection, but it is not expected to have an influence on fertility trends.
19
Ireland
Population
Immigration into Ireland in the twelve months to April 2006 is estimated at 86 900 while the number
of emigrants in the same period was 17 000, resulting in a net migration total of 69 900. Births
exceeded deaths by 34 200 in the same period. The combined effect of these two flows resulted in a
population increase of 104 100 bringing the population estimate to 4 234 900 in April 2006, which is
a 2.5 per cent increase on the previous April.
The young dependency ratio (29.8 %), though declining, remains quite high by European standards.
It stood at 52 % over twenty years ago.
Fertility
The number of births registered in 2005 was 61 042, a decrease of 642 on the 2004 figure. The total
number of births declined from a peak of 74 400 in 1980 to a low of 47 900 in 1994. The birth rate
was 14.8 ‰ in 2005 compared with 21.9 ‰ in 1980. A total of 32 % of births were outside marriage
in 2005 compared with 5 % in 1980. The figure has been steadily increasing in recent years.
Over 40.5 % of the births in 2005 were first order births compared with 20 % in 1960. By way of
contrast, fourth and higher order births, which accounted for nearly 45 % of the 1960 births, only
accounted for 10 % of the 2005 births.
The total fertility rate has steadily declined in Ireland since the mid-sixties. In 1964 the rate was 4.06,
in 1981 it was 3.07 and in 1989 it was 2.08. The total fertility rate continued to fall to 1.85 in 1994
and 1995 but since then has increased to 1.88 in 2005.
Mortality
There were 27 441 deaths registered in 2005 giving a crude rate of 6.6 ‰, lower than in most European
countries because of the young age profile of the Irish population. This represents a decrease of 710
on the 2004 figure.
Migration
The 2002 Census of Population recorded 76 104 people who were usually resident in the country
on census night and whose usual residence one year previously was outside the state. The United
Kingdom was the country of origin for about one-third, while 13 % came from other EU countries.
20
Other European countries accounted for about 11 %, the USA for 8 % while approximately one third
originated from countries outside Europe and the USA.
The number of marriages declined from a peak of 21 800 in 1980 to 15 600 in 1995. Recent years
have witnessed an upward movement to 20 723 in 2005.
In 1997, the first year in which divorce legislation operated, there were 95 divorces granted. There
were 3 411 divorces granted in 2005.
The most recent set of population projections uses the 2002 Census of Population as a benchmark
and covers the period to 2036. Six scenarios are presented corresponding to three fertility and two
migration variants. The high scenario (M1F1) assumes that immigration will continue at a high level
and then moderate coupled with a total fertility rate increasing from its 2003 level of 1.98 to reach 2 by
2011 and remaining constant thereafter. The low variant (M2F3) would see immigration continuing at
more moderate levels coupled with the total fertility rate falling to 1.7 by 2011 and being maintained
at that level for the remainder of the projection period.
The population is projected to increase under all scenarios reaching 5 820 300 under M1F1 and
4 982 800 under M2F3. The old population (i.e. those aged 65 years and over) is projected to
more than double between 2001 and 2036 under all combinations of assumptions chosen. The
relevant population will be 1 145 300 under M1 and 1 119 000 under M2. The very old population
(i.e. those aged 80 years and over) is projected to increase from its 2001 level of 98 000 to over
323 000 in 2036.
Following an amendment to the Constitution which was approved in a Referendum taken on 24
November 1995, the “Family Law (Divorce) Act, 1996” passed into law in 1996. To date no provision
has been made for the collection of divorce statistics in Ireland.
21
Italy
Maria Pia Sorvillo
Population
On 31 December 2005 Italy had a resident population of 58 751 711. On 31 December 2004 it was
58 462 375, an increase of 0.5% of the population. This was due to a positive balance of migration
movement. During 2005 the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by almost 13 300, a
negative balance like every previous year, with the only exception of 2004. The migratory balance
showed a surplus of about 260 600 persons which represents a significant increase. Another increase
of about 42 000 units is due to administrative adjustment. Data by gender shows that women are the
majority of population with 51.4 per cent (30 224 823).
Fertility
There were 554 022 live births in 2005, slightly lower than in 2004 (562 599). However, compared to
the number of live births recorded in 1995 (526 064), when it reached the lowest number of births in
the last decades, the increase remains quite significant.
The number of live births outside marriage increased from 81 770 in 2004 to 95444 in 2005. Presently
they represent 17.4 % of the total number of live births. This shows a significant increase if one looks
at the corresponding number for 1990 (36 810).
The total fertility rate in 2005 is still among the lowest in Europe, although, in the last 5 years, it has
increased from 1.23 (1999) to 1.32 (estimates based on provisional data).
Legally induced abortion
Induced abortion has been legal since 1978. The number of legally induced abortions in 2003 was
124 118. The induced abortion rate (per 1000 women aged 15-49) did not change significantly since
2000 after the regular decrease starting in the mid-1980s.
This is due to different behaviour of women according to age. Among younger women (aged 15-19
and 20-24) the recourse to induced abortion has increased over recent years (+2.6 cases per 1000
women in both age classes between 1993 and 2003); on the other hand, the rate for older women
(aged 30-34, 35-39 and 40-44) has shown a small regular decrease from 1980 to 2003.
22
Mortality
The crude death rate for resident population was 10.3 ‰ in 2003 (9.7 ‰ in 1993). The total number of
deaths was 588,897 in 2003. Life expectancy at birth continues to increase; in 2003 it was 76.9 years
for men (74.1 in 1993) and 82.9 years for women (80.5 in 1993).
Infant mortality continues to decline; 2,134 children under one year old died in 2003. This is equivalent
to an infant mortality rate of 4.0 ‰, compared to 4.5 ‰ in 2000 and 10 ‰ in 1986.
When assessing the main causes of death, data show that death due to tumours has slightly increased,
the crude death rate has changed from 32.5 (per 10,000) in 1993 to 33.8 (per 10,000) in 2003 (estimated
values) for men and from 21.9 (per 10,000) in 1993 to 23.1 (per 10,000) in 2003 for women. Deaths
due to diseases of the circulatory system continue to be the most frequent cause. The crude death rate
has reached, in 2003 (estimated values), 38.9 (per 10,000) for men and 46.8 (per 10,000) for women
(compared to 40.1 and 44.5 respectively in 1993).
Migration
Italy’s demographic development is increasingly influenced by international migration. In 2005 the net
migration balance was positive at national level (about 260 000 people), and lower than in 2004 (about
380 000). The foreign population resident in Italy was, according to population data in the municipal
registers on 31 December 2005, about 2 670 000. This constitutes an increase of 11.2 % compared to
the previous year, and the share of the total resident population on the same date was 4.5 %.
Of the total number of foreigners living in Italy at the end of 2005, 47.3 % were Europeans (38.4 %
from Central and Eastern Europe); 26.0 % from Africa (18.2 % from North Africa); 17.0 % from Asia
and 9.6 % from the Americas. In 2005 there was a notable increase in the number of people coming
from Central and Eastern Europe (+13.6 %), from Asia (+12.3 %) and from Central and South America
(+11.9 %).
The majority of the foreign population lives in the Northwest, Northeast and Central regions of Italy
(36.6 %, 27.4 and 24.0 % respectively), and a minority lives in the South (12.0 %). The foreign
population is generally found in the main urban areas, although the share of those living in provincial
capitals (capoluoghi di provincia) has decreased in recent years.
The number of marriages in 2005 was 250 976 (provisional data), a figure that shows a -2.2 %
decrease compared to 2003. During the 1990s the total number of marriages fell from around 319 000
in 1990 to 285 000 in 2000. The proportion of religious marriages decreased from 83.2 % in 1990 to
75.3 % in 2000.
In 2003, 243 799 (31.9) men and 246 751 (29.1) women married for the first time, – mean age in
parentheses. The observed tendency of postponing marriage continues for both men and women.
23
Remarriages are increasing, remaining more popular among men: in 2003, 20 298 men and 17 346
women remarried. The percentage of remarriages has increased: in 1980 it was 4.0 % for men and
2.2 % for women; in 1990, 5.0 % for men and 3.3 % for women and in 2003, 7.7 % for men and
6.6 % for women.
The number of divorces in 2004 was 45 097, a figure that shows a 2.8 % increase compared to
2003. During the last ten years, the total number of divorces grew to around 67 % (equal to 27 038
in 1995).
24
Cyprus
Ioanna Chappa
Population
The total population of Cyprus is estimated at 854 300 on 1st January 2006, compared with 837 300 in
the previous year, an increase of 2.0%. These figures cover the population in the Government controlled
area of Cyprus as well as estimates of the Turkish Cypriot community in the Turkish occupied area.
In 2005 the population increase is explained by an overall net migration rate of 16.3‰ and a natural
increase rate of 3.7‰ population. In the last decade there was a decreasing, though positive natural
increase and a sizeable net migration balance, so that in the last five years 2001-2005 the contribution
of the net migration balance to the overall population growth exceeded the natural increase.
Furthermore the total population growth conceals differences between the population growth in the
Government controlled area and that of the Turkish Cypriot community in the Turkish occupied area.
This difference is exclusively due to migration movements as both fertility and mortality are about
the same for the two communities.
The population in the Government controlled area is estimated at 766 400 on 1st January 2006. The
age structure of the population reflects the past trends in the number of births, the increasing life
expectancy and the inflow of migrants in the young working ages. The proportion of the population
aged 65 and over increased to 12.1% compared to 11.0% in 1992 and 10.8% in 1982. On the lower
end of the age pyramid the proportion of children below the age of 15 dropped to 18.4%, compared
with 25.4% in 1992 and 25.0% in 1982.
Fertility
The total number of births is estimated at 9 213 in 2005.
In the Government controlled area the number of births decreased slightly to 8 243 in 2005 from
8 309 the year before. The crude birth rate decreased to 10.9 per thousand population from 11.3 in
2004, while the total fertility rate decreased to 1.42 children per woman compared to 1.49 in the
previous year and 1.50 in 2003.
The pattern of fertility has been changing. The contribution to total fertility of the age-group 25-29
increased compared to the contribution of the age-group 20-24 as shown by the age specific fertility
rates which are now highest for the 25-29 age-group. Furthermore there is an increase in the share to
total fertility of the 30-34 age-group, the 35-39 and the 40+. This is in line with the general increases
in the mean age at birth of first child and the mean age at birth of any child which reached 27.4 and
29.4 years respectively in 2005.
25
The proportion of extra-marital births, though increasing, remains low in Cyprus constituting only
4.4% of the total in 2005.
Mortality
In 2005 the total number of deaths is estimated at 6 063.
In the Government controlled area the number of deaths was 5 425 giving a crude death rate of
7.2‰. The infant mortality rate is estimated at 4.6‰ live births in 2005. Life expectancy at birth
was calculated at 77.0 for males and 81.7 for females according to the most recent life tables of
2004/2005.
Migration
Overall, the net migration balance is positive. It is estimated at about 13 800 in 2005, compared to
15 700 in 2004.This reflects mainly the net migration balance in the Government controlled area, as the
net migration of Turkish Cypriots in the occupied area was estimated nil in 2004 and negative in 2005.
In 2005 the total number of marriages was estimated at 13 394.
In the Government controlled area the number of marriages was 12 966 in 2005 compared to 10 931
the year before. These figures include an increasing number of foreigners who married in Cyprus but
are not residents of Cyprus.
As from 2004 it has been possible to separate the number of marriages of residents. In 2005 the
number of marriages of residents totalled 5 881 giving a crude marriage rate of 7.8 per thousand
population, compared to 5 349 and 7.3 respectively the previous year. Further analysis is based on
residents only.
There is a rising trend in the age at first marriage for both men and women. Mean age of men at first
marriage increased from 25.7 in the period 1974-1977 to 29.3 in 2005. Similarly mean age of women
at first marriage increased from 22.9 to 27.2 in the same period.
Remarriages are also increasing in number. Whereas first marriages of both parties constituted almost
93% of all marriages in the period 1975-1978, this proportion decreased to 73% in 2005.
The total number of divorces is estimated at 1690 in 2005.
In the Government controlled area the number of divorces declined to 1 514 from 1 614 the year
before and the crude divorce rate decreased to 2.0 per thousand population from 2.3. The total
divorce rate, which shows the proportion of marriages that are expected to end up in divorce,
26
decreased to 233 per thousand marriages from 246 in 2004. It remains to be seen whether this is
only a temporary fluctuation which will not alter the general rising trend.
Though there are no regular official statistics on the number of consensual unions, this life style as
an alternative to marriage is rare in Cyprus. However, there is a growing tendency of young persons
living together during the engagement period preceding marriage. The census of 2001 enumerated
0.7% of the population living in consensual unions.
On the basis of the Census results a set of demographic projections covering the Government controlled
area was compiled for the period 2002-2052.
The projection assumes a fertility decline with the total fertility rate reaching 1.3 in the period 20172022 and remaining at this level thereafter. Life expectancy at birth is assumed to increase gradually
and reach 79.0 for males and 85.0 for females at the end of the projection period. A positive net
migration balance is assumed throughout the projection period, with an annual balance of +6 000 in
the first 5-year period, declining gradually to +3 000 in 2012 and remaining at this level till the end
of the projection period.
Under these assumptions the population will be growing until 2032 when it is expected to reach
851 800, it will remain at this level until 2037 and from then onwards it will start declining reaching
822 100 in 2052. The population age structure will undergo significant changes. The proportion of
children aged under 15 is expected to decrease substantially to 13.1% in 2032 and 11.0% in 2052. In
contrast, the proportion of the elderly aged 65 years and over will be increasing to 21.3% in 2032 and
28.7% in 2052.
27
Latvia
Uldis Usackis
Population
At the beginning of 2006, the resident population of Latvia stood at 2 294 590. Since 2000, Latvia’s
population has decreased by 87 100 persons, or by 3.7 %, (11 844 in 2005). This calculation is based
on the final results of the 2000 Population and Housing Census and the data of the current demographic
statistics.
In 2005, the average age of the population increased by 0.2 years and was 40.2 years at the beginning
of 2006. The average age of men was 37.3 years and that of women 42.5 years. Data on the age
structure of the population show that the population of Latvia continues to age.
At the beginning of 2006, only 14.3 % of the population was aged 0-14, 21.3 % was of post-productive
age (62+ for men and 60+ for women), and 64.4 % was of working age. The latter category - share of
population of working age - was 58.9 % at the beginning of 2000. The increase in the proportion of
the working age population is the result of a change to retirement age by the Latvia’s legislation.
Nowadays, the proportions of men and women in the population are almost equal. At the beginning of
2006 the proportion of men was 46.1 %. They outnumbered women in all age groups up to 33 years.
In age groups 34 years and above they were in a minority, with the most pronounced female surplus
in age groups over 70.
Statistical data show a change in the ethnic composition of the population in recent years. During
the last five years, the percentage of ethnic Latvians has increased from 57.9 % to 59.0 % at the
beginning of 2006. However, in Riga - the Capital city - the percentage of ethnic Latvians is less than
half - 42.4 %.
The population density is 35.5 inhabitants per square kilometre.
Fertility
The number of live births was 21 497 in 2005 (42 135 in 1987, the highest number in the post-war
period), which is equal to a total fertility rate of 1.31. After the peak in 1986-1987 (2.21), the total
fertility rate fell to 1.11 in 1998 to slightly increase again in 1999-2000 and in 2004-2005. At present
it is slightly over half of the replacement level (2.1 - 2.2) and is one of the lowest in Europe.
Increase of fertility in last the year has been observed for females aged 25 - 29 (by 8 % compared with
the year 2004), aged 30 - 34 (by 14 %) and aged 35 - 39 (by 12 %).
28
The mean age of mothers of new-born is 28.0 years which represents an increase of 0.7 years since
2000, but the mean age of mothers at first birth (25.2) has gone up by 0.8 years.
It is envisaged that the number of females in the fertile age will not decrease in the coming years as
women born in the 80s - when fertility observed was the highest in the post-war period - are now of
fertile age.
An increase in illegitimate births has been observed in Latvia. In 2005, 44.6 % of all births belonged
to females not legally married (40.5 % in urban and 53.2 % in rural areas). In 1990, only 16.9 % of
births were out of wedlock (15.2 % in urban and 19.9 % in rural areas).
Mortality
The number of deaths in 2005 was 32 777 (32 205 in 2000). The crude death rate increased from
13.6 ‰ in 2000 to 14.2 ‰ in 2005. The death rate was 13.6 ‰ for urban population and 15.7 ‰ for
rural population. The overall mortality rates for men exceeded the indicators of women 1.2 times on
average.
The mortality trends in Latvia are rather different from those of the developed European countries.
55.1 % of all deaths were caused by diseases of the circulatory system (786 per 100 000 population),
followed by 18.0 % from neoplasms (257 per 100 000 population), and 9.8 % from external causes
(140 per 100 000 population).
Life expectancy at birth was 65.6 years for men and 77.4 for women (64.9 and 76.0 in 2000,
respectively).
In 2005, 168 infant deaths were recorded in the first year of life; this represents the lowest infant
mortality rate in the post-war period - 7.8 deaths in the first year of life per 1000 live births.
Migration
According to Recommendations of the United Nations in the first place, data on long-term migrants
have been compiled and published. This category includes persons arriving into the country for a
permanent settlement or for a stay period of one year or more and persons departing from the given
country to another with an aim to change the permanent place of residence or to stay in this destination
country for one year or more. The criteria of time allow separating the long-term migrants from
another flows of border crossing persons - tourists, excursionists, and short-term migrants.
The data compiled on long-term migration of the Latvian population in 2005 show evidence of notable
decrease of the high number of departures observed in early 1990s.
In 2005, 1886 persons arrived in Latvia for permanent stay (by 13.3 % more than the preceding year),
while 2450 persons left for permanent stay in other countries. The resident population of Latvia
decreased by 564 persons in 2005 due to international migration.
29
The majority of emigrants who left for Western countries went to Germany (261), United Kingdom
(189), USA (166), Ireland (83), Sweden (47), France (44), and Israel (35). Emigrants to our neighbouring
countries Lithuania and Estonia were 104 and 73, respectively. The majority of emigrants who left for
Eastern European countries went to the Russian Federation (764), Ukraine (141), and Belarus (113).
In reality, the international migration statistics data do not reflect movements of the population
accurately enough. To ensure internationally comparable migration statistics data, very promising
seems the Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on Community Statistics on
migration and international protection that is close to adoption.
The Declaration of Place of Residence Law had a major impact on national internal migration with
volumes in 2005 reaching 1.7 times more those of 2002 comprising 54 437 and 31 413 persons
respectively. Since it came into force (1 July 2003), the number of changes to the place of residence
recorded at local level has increased rapidly.
The proportion of internal migration to the total migration volume of 2005 was 96 %, while international
migration constituted 4 %.
The number of foreigners in the country is currently 38 100 persons, or about 1.7 % of the total
population. Among the residents of Latvia there are more than 418 000 non-citizens of Latvia, which
are not counted among foreigners. Since 2000 the Central Statistical Bureau processes and publishes
a detailed breakdown of the population by country of citizenship.
In 2005, in compliance with the UN Recommendations, the CSB of Latvia compiled also data on
international short-term migration (period of stay - over 3 months but less than 1 year). There were
1 707 short-term immigrants and 1 103 emigrants recorded in Latvia in 2005.
In 2005, 12 544 marriages were contracted in Latvia representing a 36.2 % increase compared to 2000,
and 21 % increase compared with the previous year. Between 2000 and 2005 the crude marriage rate
increased essentially - from 3.9 to 5.5.
The average age at first marriage is currently 26.0 years for brides and 28.2 years for bridegrooms,
which is respectively 4.4 % and 4.8 % higher than in 2000.
In 2005, 20.8 % of the bridegrooms and 20.1 % of the brides with Latvian ethnicity married a partner
of a different ethnicity.
Roughly one half of the population aged 18 and over (51.9 % of males and 43.7 % of females) is
legally married. The share of married persons has decreased in 2005 if compared with the previous
year. As in other European countries, cohabitation has become more common in recent years.
6 341 divorces were registered in 2005, a small increase of 207 (3.4 %) compared to 2000. The
number of divorces in 2005 was 505 per 1000 marriages and the crude divorce rate was 2.8.
30
In compliance with the requests of ministries and other governmental agencies, as well as international
organisations, a new set of demographic projections for the period up to the year 2050 has been
developed by the Statistical Office of the European Communities - Eurostat in co-operation with
the Department of Demography at the University of Latvia and with the Central Statistical Bureau
of Latvia. The 2000 Population and Housing Census data and recent statistical data on demographic
development and migration served as a background for these projections. On this basis, the in-country
demographic projections will be carried out for the 7 largest cities under the state jurisdiction, and 26
rural districts.
The Parliament of Latvia adopted amendments to the Law on State Statistics of the Republic of Latvia
that came into effect on 14 April 2006. The law states that statistics shall be produced according to
the requirements and recommendations of international organisations. It also states that the methods
used in state statistics and the prepared information shall be impartial and independent of political
processes and interest groups, the statistical information shall be available to state and local government
institutions as well as to the general public. If summary statistical data have been collected according
to the State Statistical Programme adopted by the Government of Latvia, these data are available for
users free of charge.
31
Lithuania
Danguole Svidleriene
Population
At the beginning of 2006 the estimated population of Lithuania was 3 403 284 of which 1 586 650
(46.6 %) were men and 1 816 634 (53.4 %) women. Since 1992 the population decreased by
30 3015 persons or 8.2 % (22 040 less than in 2005). Population decrease was mostly due to negative
net migration (by 235 375 persons).
Since 1994 the country has experienced a natural decrease. In 2005, the natural decrease was 13 258
which is 2 337 people (21.4%) more than in 2004.
The age structure shows an ageing population. At the beginning of 2006, 20.4 % of the population
was aged 60 and older; the proportion of children (aged 0–14) was 16.5 %. Over the period 1995–
2006 the number of children and population aged 15–59 decreased by 29.8 and 2.8 % respectively,
while the population aged 60 and older increased by 9.6 %. At the beginning of 2006, the number of
men aged 60 and older amounted 250 531 and women amounted to 443 422, i.e. each sixth man and
each fourth woman were in this age group.
At the beginning of 2006, the population density was 52.1 inhabitants per square kilometre.
Fertility
The total number of live births was 30 541 in 2005 which is 122 more than in 2004. Since 1991 fertility
has been constantly decreasing. There were 30 419 live births in 2004 which is 26 449 (46.5 %) less
than in 1990. The total fertility rate was 1.27 in 2005. The total fertility rate fell from 1.55 to 1.26
during the period 1995–2004.
The most significant decline in 1995–2005 is observed in the age groups of under 20 and among
20–24 year olds. In these groups the fertility level has fallen by 55.1% and 44.1 % respectively.
The mean age of mothers at the birth of their first child was 24.9 in 2005, an increase of 1.8 years
compared with 1995.
The number of first and second live births has been decreasing and in 2005 amounted to 83.3 % of
all live births (84.8 % in 1995). However, the share of the fourth and higher birth order has increased
and in 2005 it accounted for 6.6 % of all live births (5.5 % in 1995).
Over the period 1995–2005 the number of children born outside marriage increased 1.7 times and
represents 28.4 % of all births in 2005.
32
Mortality
In 2005, 43 799 deaths were registered which is 2459 more than in 2004. Since 1990 essential
changes in mortality have been observed; over the period 1990–1994 mortality rate increased by
17.6 %. During the period 1995–2000 the mortality rate decreased by 11.2 %. Since 2001, it has been
increasing, and in 2005 it was by 0.8 % higher than in 1994.
The number of deaths of infants under one year was 209 in 2005, 31 less than in 2004. In 2005, the
infant mortality rate was 6.9 per thousand live births, 44,4 % less than in 1995.
In 2005, life expectancy of men was 65.4 and of women 77.4 years. The difference in life expectancy
between men and women is high – 12 years. Over the period 1995–2005 a decrease in life expectancy
was observed: 2.1 years for men and 2.4 years for women.
During the period 1995–2005 as much as 85 % of the total number of deaths fell within the three
main causes of death: diseases of the circulatory system, malignant neoplasms and external causes of
mortality. In 2005, 45.9 % of men’s and 64.1 % of women’s deaths were attributed to diseases of the
circulatory system. Mortality due to malignant neoplasms accounts for 18.4 % of all deaths. Of great
concern to society is mortality due to external causes which accounted for 18.4 % of male and 6.0 %
of female deaths in 2005. The highest number of deaths, caused by the external causes of mortality,
included intentional self-harm – 23.8 %; transport accidents – 15,9 %; accidental poisoning by and
exposure to alcohol – 8.2 %; drowning and submersion – 7.0% and assault – 5.7 %.
Migration
In 2005, 6 789 persons immigrated to Lithuania, 1236 more than in 2004. The biggest share of
immigrants were aged 15–59 (84.5 %), children aged 0–14 (10.3 %) and persons aged 60 and older
(5.2 %). Citizens of the Republic of Lithuania compared to the total number of immigrants were
69.3 %.
In the first quarter of 2006, statistics Lithuania carried out a survey, which allowed estimating the
number of residents of Lithuania, who unofficially left the country in 2001–2005. The survey results
showed that only each second-third resident of Lithuania declares his departure when emigrating.
Taking into consideration non-official emigration in 2001–2005, about 128 thousand persons emigrated
from Lithuania. Most people emigrated to the United Kingdom, Ireland, USA, Germany, Russian
Federation and Spain. The biggest part (21 %) of the emigrants were aged 25–29, while people aged
20–24 made up 16 %, and those aged 30–34 represented 13 % of the emigrants.
In 2005, 19 938 marriages were contracted which is 808 more than in 2004. However, the number
of marriages decreased from 34 241 in 1991 to 15 764 in 2001. The crude marriage rate has been
increasing: in 2002 – by 4.4 %, compare with previous year, in 2004 – by 14.3% and in 2005 – by
3.6%.
33
The average age at first marriage for women was 24.9 years in 2005 and 22.4 years in 1995 and for men
was 27.0 years and 24.3 years respectively. In 2005, 20.9 % of women and 23.2 % of men had been
married previously.
The total number of divorces was 11 097 in 2005. Since 1990 the number of divorces has been
increasing and in 1991 it reached a peak (15 250). From 1995 the number of divorces has been quite
stable: 10 000 – 11 000 couples divorced annually. The number of divorces per 1000 population was
about 3. In 2005, the average duration of marriage was 12.9 years. The total divorce rate indicates that
46 % of all marriages end in divorce. The number of divorces involving dependant children under 18
was quite stable: 36.7 % of couples who divorced in 2005 did not have common children, 41.6% had
one child and 21.7% had two and more children.
34
Luxembourg
Germaine Thill
Population
In 2005 the population increased by 4 500 (+1.0%) and on 1 January 2006 totalled 459 500.
In contrast with 2004, the migration balance (+2 671 in 2005) apparently again exceeded the natural
balance of +1 750 in 2005 (-584 for Luxembourg nationals and +2 334 for foreigners).
The percentage of foreign residents continued to grow and was 39.6% in 2005, compared with 39.0%
in 2004.
Fertility
After the increase recorded in 2004, the number of births fell slightly from 5 452 in 2004 to 5 371
in 2005 (-1.5%). This reduction was the result of fewer Luxembourg births (down from 2 533 in
2004 to 2 403 in 2005, a reduction of 5.1%), while foreign births increased slightly from 2 919 to
2 968 (+1.7%). As in the previous three years, the number of foreign births exceeded the number of
Luxembourg births and they now account for more than 55% of all births in the country.
In 2005 the total fertility rate was 1.70 children per woman. The figure for Luxembourg women was
1.53 and for foreign women 1.92. The overall figure for 2004 was 1.70, with total fertility rates of
1.56 for Luxembourg women and 1.92 for foreign women.
The number of births outside marriage is steadily rising and reached 27.2% of all births in 2005
compared with 26.1% in 2004.
The average age of a mother giving birth was 30.9 among Luxembourg women and 30.2 among
foreign women.
Mortality
The number of deaths, which had gone down sharply in 2004 (3 578 deaths in 2004, compared with
4 053 in 2003), rose slightly in 2005 to give a final figure of 3 621 (+1.2%). This trend was marked
among foreign residents, where the number of deaths rose from 571 to 634. On the other hand, there
was a slight decline in the number of deaths among Luxembourgers: 2 987 deaths in 2005 compared
with 3 007 in 2004. It should be noted, however, that in absolute terms the number of deaths among
the foreign population remains very low because of its very young age structure.
35
The crude death rate remained below 8‰ and in 2005 was 7.92‰ (compared with 7.89‰ in
2004).
The improvement in the infant mortality rate (children below the age of one) recorded in 2004, when
there were 21 infant deaths compared with 26 the year before, continued again in 2005 when there
was another sharp drop (14 deaths). This infant mortality rate of 2.6‰ is the lowest ever recorded in
Luxembourg. The figure for 2004 was 3.9‰.
Migration
As for international migration flows, the point which emerges is that there should perhaps be an
upward revision of the figures based on a file extracted from Luxembourg’s Répertoire Général
des Personnes Physiques (general register of natural persons) and made available to STATEC by
the Centre Informatique de l’Etat (national computing centre). Errors seem to have slipped into the
processing of the file concerning Luxembourg city.
In recent years the number of marriages has remained more or less steady. In 2005 there were 2 032
marriages, compared with 1 999 in 2004, and the marriage rate was 4.44 per 1000 inhabitants. The
age when marrying for the first time continues to rise, and in 2005 the age for men was 31.9 and for
women 29.5. In 2000 the respective ages had been 30.7 and 28.1. Men were thus marrying 1.2 years
later than six years previously, and the difference in the case of women was 1.4 years. The firstmarriage indicator was 0.458 for men and 0.516 for women.
There is very little change from year to year in the number of divorces. There were 1 046 divorces in
2005 compared with 1 055 in 2004. The divorce rate is 2.29 per 1000 inhabitants and the total divorce
rate stands at 0.49. Nearly half the marriages which take place in any year will thus end in divorce, if
the frequency of divorce by length of marriage continues at the 2005 rate.
Government decisions and changes in legislation
There is draft legislation which would replace divorce on specific grounds, especially on grounds
of fault, by a new form of divorce by mutual consent, such as divorce because of the irreconcilable
breakdown of a marriage. Similarly, the conditions and arrangements for divorce by mutual consent
are to be adapted. In general terms, the divorce proceedings will be modernised and in some respects
simplified, the aim being to make relations between partners easier before and during a divorce,
especially for the more important benefit of any children. The current system of alimony payments
between husband and wife is to be changed in order to make it fairer.
Consideration is currently being given to supplementing civil and criminal law by legislation to
prevent and curb marriages of convenience and forced marriages.
36
A draft law will be submitted to the Chamber of Deputies to make it possible when applying for
Luxembourg nationality to keep one’s nationality of origin, and vice versa. Dual nationality will be
introduced in line with residence requirements allowing proper assimilation and integration.
37
Hungary
Population
On 1st January 2006 the population was estimated at 10 076 600 which is 21 000 less than in the
previous year. The natural decrease in 2005 was 3.8 ‰ compared to 3.7 ‰ in 2004. Because of the
positive balance of international migration the actual population decrease in 2005 was 2.1 ‰, by
0.2‰ more than in the previous year. In recent decades population development can be divided into
two distinctive periods. The first period, characterised by moderate growth, ended in 1980 at which
point the population reached its maximum size of 10 709 463. The second period, from 1981 onwards,
is characterised by a continuous decrease: from 1981 to 2005 the population decreased by 5.9 %.
The decrease of the population took place simultaneously with the ageing process of the population.
On 1st January 2006 the ratio of children under 15 years was 15.4 % compared to 20.5 % in 1990.
However, the proportion of persons over 65 years was 15.8 %, compared to 13.2 % in 1990. The
composition of the population by marital status changed significantly. At the end of 2005 only 48.7 %
of the adult population over 14 years of age was married, while in 1990 their ratio was 61.2 %. During
this period the ratio of never married persons increased from 20.3 % to 30.0 %. There were 1 106
females per 1 000 males at the end of 2005.
Fertility
The total fertility rate reached its historical minimum in 2003 and in 2004, which was equal to 1.28
per woman. Between 1990 and 2004 the level of general fertility fell by 22 % and the total fertility
rate by 30 %. After the millennium the fertility seemed to stabilize and its value began to increase in
the last year. The number of births in 2005 was 97 496 which corresponds to 9.7 ‰ live births. This
2359 plus (2.5 %) is more than in 2004. The total fertility rate increased from 1.28 to 1.32 in 2005.
The increase in fertility was mainly attributed to the changing behavior of childless women aged over
30. While the fertility level increased among women aged over 30, it continued to decrease among
women below 25 years. Compared to 1990s, the fertility level in 2005 has decreased by nearly 50
% for women under 20 years, by 66 % for women aged 20-24. Conversely, compared to 1990, the
fertility level increased by 54 % for women aged 30-34, and by 66 % for women aged 35-39.
The changing age-specific fertility behaviors have contributed to the ageing process of mothers.
During the last fifteen years the mean age at childbirth increased by 2.92 years and reached 28.59
years in 2005. In the same period the mean age at birth of the first child increased by 3.97 years to
26.96.
Among the total number of births, the number and proportion of extra-marital births continued to
increase. For example, while the total number of births was nearly 23 % lower in 2005 than in 1990,
the number of births outside marriage has doubled. Furthermore, 35 % of total births were outside
38
marriage in 2005 compared to 13.1 % in 1990, and 84.9 % of the extra-marital births were conceived
by single women and 14.0 % by divorced women.
In 2005 the proportion of infants born with a low weight (less than 2 500 grams) was 8.2 %, compared
to the 8.3% in the previous year.
In the last one and a half decades the number and ratio of induced abortions showed an improving
picture. Since 1990 the number of abortions has decreased by 42.8 % and in 2005 there were 19.9
induced abortions per 1 000 women aged 15-49 years. The 48 689 induced abortions carried out in
2005 is 3850 less than in the previous year. The total abortion rate measured 0.68 per woman in 2005
is much lower compared to its value of 1.25 in 1990. In the last fifteen years the induced abortions
decreased to a higher degree than the number of births. As a result the number of induced abortions
per 100 live births decreased from 72 in 1990 to 50 in 2005 thereby indicating a more responsible
contraception.
Mortality
For three decades until the early 1990s death rates increased. Since then a definite improvement can
be observed in mortality. However in the past few years the number of deaths seemed to be fluctuant
mainly due to the flu epidemic of the spring and winter months. In 2005, 135 732 people died, 3240
(2.4 %) more than in the previous year. This represents 13.5 ‰ compared to the 13.1 ‰ in 2004.
The gender aspect of mortality deserves special attention. In the last ten years the mortality rate
for men decreased to a greater extent than for women. The improvement is most significant among
middle-aged men.
In 2005 the average life expectancy at birth was 68.56 for men and 76.93 for women. These values
practically did not change compared to the previous year. Life expectancy at birth for men is now 3.4
years higher than fifteen years ago, for women it is 3.2 years higher. However it’s much lower, than
the average of industrialized and EU countries.
There are significant differences in mortality by regions which mainly reflect the diverse social
situation in the country: the death rate of adult males is much higher in rural than in urban areas. The
geographic differences in mortality are not so pronounced for women.
The infant mortality rate in 2005 was 6.2 per thousand live births, about 0.4 less than in 2004. This is
still high on an international scale but shows a definite improvement in the last decades. The relatively
high infant mortality can be attributed partly to the relative high proportion of premature birth.
Migration
Hungary is first and foremost a transit and only then a destination country. Officially migration
decreased and stabilised after the major international migration movement in the early 1990s.
39
In 2004, 22 164 migrants arrived in Hungary, of whom 83.2 % were Europeans, mostly Romanians,
Ukrainians, Slovaks, Serbia and Montenegro. 12.1 % came from Asia, mostly China and Vietnam.
The number of foreign citizens leaving the country was much lower in 2004, only 3 466 foreigners
left the country.
On 1st January 2005 the number of foreigners staying long-term or permanently in Hungary reached
142 153. Migrants are not distributed evenly between the different counties and there are much fewer
migrants in the north and south of the country. Immigration primarily concerns the capital and large
towns. After the capital, most foreigners can be found in Csongrád county. The age composition is
characterised by a predominance of young adults. For the time being, 40.9% of the new Hungarian
citizens live in Central Hungary, 13.1 % on the Southern Great Plain and 15.7 % on the Northern
Great Plain.
There is a moderate increase in the number of foreigners applying for Hungarian nationality, 5 432
(preliminary data) migrants were naturalised in 2004, compared to 5 261 in 2003.
Since the middle of the 1970s the number of marriages has shown a declining trend. The reduction
was significant especially in the last one and a half decades. Between 1990 and 2005 the number of
marriages fell by 33.4 %, and the total first marriage rate (TFMR) for females decreased from 0.77 to
0.47 during the same period. In 2005 there was a slight increase in the number of marriages with 44 234
registered occurrence, representing an increase of 1.0 % over the previous year. The crude marriage
rate was equal to 4.4 ‰, and the TFMR changed to 0.47 compared to the previous year’s 0.45. While
the decline in marriages in the past decade can be observed in all age groups, the fall was much greater
in the younger age groups. Thus, the mean age at first marriage increased during the period.
Last year’s increase in the number of marriages is mainly due to a changing attitude towards marriage
among women aged 30 to 39, while among the never married women aged below 25 a significant
decrease can be observed. Because of these changes since the second part of 1990s women in the age
group 25-29 years have the highest propensity to marriage, while prior to this, for a long time it was
among those aged 20 to 24.
Thus the postponement of first marriages continues. Between 1990 and 2005 the mean age for women
at first marriage increased by 4.9 years and it reached 26.9 years. According to the present first
marriage rate, 53 % of all single women would remain unmarried at the age of 50 years.
The increasing occurrence of informal cohabiting is related to the falling number of marriages.
According to the results of the 2005 micro census, 12.2 % of families cohabit.
The number of divorces decreased from the second half of the 1980s to the beginning of the 1990s.
In the 1990s the number of divorces didn’t change significantly. In 2005, 24 804 marriages ended in
divorce, 0.7 % more than in the previous year. The crude divorce rate was 2.5 ‰, and the total divorce
rate indicates that 43 % of all marriages would end in divorce. The most affected age-group is 20-29
year olds.
40
Population projections are made regularly and provide information on the population by age and sex
up to 2050. In addition, the population is also projected by level of education, as well as by categories
of economic activity and inactivity. Usually every five years a regional population projection is added
to the projection set.
According to the latest national population projection, the total fertility rate will be around 1.3 in the
short term and then increase slowly to 1.6. Life expectancy at birth is assumed to increase from 68.6
to 78.1 by 2050 for men and from 76.9 to 85.2 for women. International migration is included into
the projection: net migration is assumed to be rather high, +12 000 annually. (These assumptions
concern the baseline variant; in the old and the young variants fertility, mortality and net migration
are assumed to have lower or higher levels.)
The projections show a further and significant population decline, with a new phase of ageing process
and changing size of given age groups as a consequence of fluctuations in the annual number of births
in the past. The size of the population is projected to be 8.7 million by 2050 and the proportion of
those aged 60 and over is estimated to be 35 %. This set of projections is based on the final data of the
2001 census and yearly population estimation afterwards to 2005.
41
Malta
Etienne Caruana
Population
Based on the 1995 Census of Population and Housing it is estimated that at the end of 2005 the Maltese
population was 391 906 (194 603 men, 197 303 women). The total population, including work and
resident permit holders and foreigners residing in Malta, was 404 346 (200 626 men, 203 720 women).
The density of population stands at 1 280 persons per km.sq. Fertility
The number of live births recorded in 2005 was 3 858 (2004: 3 887). The downward trend in the
number of births has been constant over the past ten years. The crude birth rate is 9.56; the total
fertility rate is 1.37. Mortality
The number of deaths for 2005 was 3 130, with a crude mortality rate of 7.76, slightly higher than the
7.47 recorded for 2004. The infant mortality rate stood at 6.0 which corresponds to 23 deaths same
as the previous year.
Male life expectancy stands at 77.67, while that for females is 81.39. Heart diseases continued to
predominate as the main causes of deaths; other risk factors remain cancers and respiratory diseases.
Migration
Like most Mediterranean countries, Malta has had a long history of migration. Migration was
particularly high in the 1950s and 1960s when, due to lack of jobs and difficult social conditions,
thousands left the Islands to settle abroad. Migration was then considered as a ‘safety valve’ to ease
population pressures. Since the mid-70s Malta has received back thousands of former emigrants.
Currently, the migration dimension in Maltese demography is gradually being phased out.
During 2005, it is estimated that 70 persons left the country, 109 returned and 624 persons were
naturalized/registered as Maltese citizens. There were 62 child-adoptions from abroad. Demographic outlook − National reports on the demographic developments in 2005
42
The number of marriages in 2005 was 2 374 which is a decrease of 1.2 % on 2004. The crude rate was
5.88. Divorce is not legal in Malta. Demographic projections
Malta’s population is still young by European standards. However the 0-14 age group of the total
population declined by 2.5% from last year, whereas the 65 + age group has increased by 1.5 %. Like
the rest of Europe the population is ageing at a fast rate.
Census of Population and Housing
During 2005 the National Statistics Office conducted a Census on Population and Housing. The
preliminary report has been published and is available on the following web page http://www.
census2005.gov.mt/reports/Censusprelreport2005.pdf
43
Netherlands
Population
On 1 January 2006 the total population of the Netherlands was 16 334 000. In the beginning of 2001
the exact number of 16 000 000 was reached. Population growth in 2000 was 123 000. Since 2001
population growth has dropped from 118 000 in 2001 to 29 000 in 2005. The decreased growth rate
was caused by a decrease in the number of immigrants and an increase in the number of emigrants.
Population with foreign background
On 1 January 2006 the population included 1.6 million people who were born abroad with at least one
parent born abroad – so-called first generation migrants. In addition, the population included 1.5 million
people who were born in the Netherlands but have at least one parent who is born abroad – so-called
second generation migrants. Because many migrants have obtained Dutch citizenship, distinguishing
first and second generation migrants in the above manner gives a better indication of the size of the
population with a foreign background than, for example, using a distinction of persons by citizenship.
Further distinctions can be made between western and non-western migrants. The so-called nonwestern first generation migrants are defined as persons born in Turkey, Africa, Asia (except
former Dutch East-Indies, Indonesia and Japan) or Latin America. Persons born in other countries
are considered as western first generation migrants. Dutch East-Indian, Indonesian and Japanese
backgrounds are included in the western category because of their relatively high socio-economic
status. The western and non-western second generation migrants are determined by the mother’s
country of birth, or, when the mother was born in the Netherlands, by the father’s country of birth.
On 1 January 2006 the number of non-western first generation migrants was 1.0 million persons.
Two-thirds of them were born in Turkey, Suriname, Morocco or the Netherlands Antilles and Aruba.
The number of non-western second generation migrants was 0.7 million persons. Three out of four of
them have parents born in one of the four above-mentioned countries.
Fertility
In 2005 there were 188 000 live-births, which is 6 000 less than in 2004. One-third of the children are
born out of the wedlock. In 2005 women were 29.4 years old on average at first childbearing, which
is the same as the 2004 figure. The 2005 total fertility rate (TFR) is estimated at 1.7.
Mortality
In 2005 the number of deaths was 136 000, which is slightly less than in 2004. According to the 2005
sex- and age-specific death rates, life expectancy at birth was 77.2 years for males. This is 2.6 years
44
higher than ten years earlier. Female life expectancy is increasing at a much lower pace. Between
1995 and 2005 life expectancy of women increased from 80.4 years to 81.6 years.
Migration
In 2005 the number of immigrants was 92 000, 41 000 less than in 2001. The 2001 number was the
highest ever recorded. The decrease between 2001 and 2005 holds for most groups of migrants. Due to
the poor economic development less labour migration was reported. The number of immigrants born
in 14 EU countries has decreased from 22 000 in 2001 to 17 000 in 2005. The number of immigrating
Dutch nationals born in the Netherlands Antilles has dropped from 8 000 in 2001 to 2 400 in 2005.
After some years of increasing numbers of asylum seekers the numbers have fallen. In 2000 the number
of asylum seekers was 44 000, 14 000 higher than in 1995. However, the last five years the number
of asylum seekers dropped to 12 000 in 2005. Most asylum seekers are not registered as immigrants
before they move from a centre for asylum seekers to an ordinary dwelling. This implies that many
asylum seekers are registered as immigrants some time after they arrived in the Netherlands.
In 2005 120 000 persons emigrated from the Netherlands, which is considerably higher than the
110 000 emigrants in 2004. These numbers include net administrative corrections, which are assumed
to be caused by under-reporting of emigration.
As a result of decreasing immigration and increasing emigration net migration is negative in 2005
with 27 000. In 2004 net migration was also negative with 16 000 and in 2003 net migration was
approximately zero.
The number of marriages in 2005 was 72 000, 1 000 lower than in 2004. About four out of five newly
married couples were cohabiting at the time of marriage. These numbers include marriages of same
sex couples. As of 1 April 2001 same sex couples are allowed to marry in the Netherlands. In 2005,
600 male couples married and 600 female couples. Marriages of same sex couples are in many ways
similar to marriages between men and women. However, with respect to children there is a clear
distinction. If a child is born in a marriage of two women the woman who gave birth to the child is
automatically the legal mother. The other woman will only be a legal parent if she adopts the child.
The same holds for children who are born in a marriage between two men.
On 1 January 1998 registered partnership was introduced in the Netherlands. Registration was made
possible for couples of the same or the opposite sex. Registered partnership resembles marriage in
many respects. However, like marriages of same sex couples, there is a clear distinction with respect
to children, since only one of the partners in a same sex couple can be the biological parent. In 2005
the number of contracted partnerships was 11 000, much higher than the 3 000 partnerships in 2001
initially. The increase concerns mainly contracted partnerships between men and women. This is due
to the possibility to change a marriage into a contracted partnership. This is a relatively easy way to
end a marriage if there are no children involved. For this reason the number of divorces has decreased,
from 37 000 in 2001 to 32 000 in 2005.
45
Households
On 1 January 2006 the number of private households was 7.1 million. This number includes 2.5 million
single person households, 2.1 million couples without children and 2.1 million couples with children.
Furthermore, there are 0.5 million single-parent households. Among the 4.2 million couples there are
0.8 million cohabiting couples. Most people living in a consensual union are aged between 25-40.
One-third of the cohabiting couples have one or more children. On 1 January 2006 the population in
institutional households numbered 0.2 million. Almost half of them live in homes for the elderly.
According to the 2004-based Dutch population forecasts, the number of inhabitants of the Netherlands
will continue to grow over the next 30 years. The maximum population size will be 17.1 million
around the year 2035.
The number of persons with a non-western foreign background will rise from 1.7 million in 2006
to 2.8 million in 2050. The first generation migrants will grow from 1.0 million to 1.3 million, the
second generation migrants from 0.7 million to 1.5 million.
46
Austria
Richard Gisser, Josef Kytir and Alexander Hanika
Population
Total population and components of growth
The number of inhabitants at the end of 2005 was 8 265 900, the highest population total ever recorded
in Austria. For the beginning of 2001, the year of the last census, the population has been calculated
at 8 020 900. Over the five years in question, the growth of the population amounted to 212 900
persons, or 2.7 %. Furthermore, 32 100 registered persons (0.4 %) have been added to the population
stock due to adjustment procedures in the course of refurbishing the statistical system.
Statistics on population stock and migration flows are now being derived from the newly (in 2002)
established central population register that is operated by the Ministry of Interior and is updated
online. The initial data for the register were collected in conjunction with the last population census
(as of 15 May 2001). On this basis, Statistics Austria has drawn up a demographic database for
the population with main residence (POPREG) that is updated quarterly. The systems change in
population statistics has caused revisions back to census day and the introduction of statistical
adjustments as a new element.
To be consistent with the years before 2001, the following temporal comparison is without the statistical
adjustments for 2001-2005. The growth of population, as the sum of natural increase (births minus deaths)
and net migration, amounted to an average of 10 740 per year in 1994/98, to 18 530 p.a. in 1999/2000, to
35 150 p.a. in 2001/03, to 55 300 in 2004, and to 52 200 in 2005. This means that Austria has once again
entered a period of accelerated population growth: the average rate of 0.66 % in 2004/05 was about five
times the low rate experienced in the mid-1990s. (However, the record high growth rate of almost 0.9 %
p.a. in 1989/93 is still unsurpassed. In that five-year period – after 15 years of stagnation – the population
of Austria grew by 334 400 persons, from 7 594 300 to 7 928 700.) Net in-migration has been the driving
force also for the most recent development, having increased from a yearly average of merely 3 800 in
1994/98 to 18 500 in 1999/2000, to 34 300 in 2001/03, and further to 49 900 in 2004/05. At the same
time the natural increase has come down from an average of 7 000 in the mid-1990s to about 800 in the
five-year period 1999/2003 but reversed to 4 700 in 2004 and 3 000 in 2005. Even so, the contribution of
net migration to population growth remained above 90 %.
Population of foreign citizenship and origin
The number of foreigners (residents not holding Austrian citizenship) at the end of 2005 was
814 100, or 9.8 % of the total population, up from 704 900 or 8.8 % at the beginning of 2001. Over
the five years in question the foreign stock increased by a cumulated total of 109 200, i.e. 11.4 %.
The components of this change were: +38 200 natural increase, +259 900 net migration (including
statistical adjustment) and –188 900 naturalisations of foreigners. Thus the two growth components
47
were reduced by 63 % through the high rate of naturalisations. The number of foreign residents who
acquired Austrian citizenship has been growing considerably since 1998 when it amounted to 17 800,
or 2.6 % of the foreign stock, to a peak in 2003 with 44 700 or 5.9 %; in 2004 and 2005 still 41 600
and 34 900 foreigners, or 5.4 % and 4.4 %, respectively, became neo-Austrians.
Consequently, the “Austrians born abroad” have become a fast growing segment. At the end of 2005
they were 561 700 persons, or 6.8 % of the total population. Since 2001, when the share was 5.0 %,
their number increased by 36 %. Although the available data do not distinguish persons who were
born abroad as Austrian citizens from naturalised immigrants, both groups have in common that they
have migrated to Austria during their lifetime. In tandem with the foreign citizens (the non-naturalised
first generation immigrants and their descent), the Austrians born abroad form the population “with
migration background”. This category comprises already one sixth of the total population (end of
2005: 1 375 800, or 16.6 %).
Fertility
From its post-war peak of 2.82 births per woman in 1963, the total fertility rate (TFR) fell by almost
1.5 to an all-time low of 1.33 births per woman in 2001. The year 2002 brought an upturn. The
number of live births (which had decreased in 2001 by 3.6 % to 75 500) rose by 3.9 % to 78 400,
and the TFR increased to 1.39. This rise was interrupted in 2003 (1.9 % less births, TFR 1.38),
resumed in 2004 (births up 2.6 % to 79 000, TFR 1.42), and again followed by a slight decrease in
2005 (-1.0 % to 78 200 births), which resulted in a TFR of 1.41. The higher level of period fertility
since 2002 is supposed to reflect the systems change in the maternal/parental leave scheme from a
benefit for employed people to a universal one. The increase in the number of births was strongest
among non-working mothers and students.
The mean age at childbearing (29.0 years in 2005) has risen by 2.7 years from the bottom line of 26.3
years that was observed for the period 1974-1982. The mean age at first birth in 2005 was 27.3 years,
3.8 years higher than in the middle of the 1970s when families got started at an estimated mean age of
mothers of 23.5 years. Postponement of family formation is continuing, as the mean age of first birth
increased from 2004 to 2005 by 0.3 years.
The net reproduction rate (NRR) for both 2004 and 2005 was 0.68, i.e. 32 % below the replacement
level. The NRR has been below replacement level for the last 34 years, and for 23 consecutive years
it has been below 0.75.
In 2005 the changes in the number of births within marriage (-1.9 %) and out of wedlock (+0.7 %)
followed the long-term differential trend, by which the share of non-marital births is increasing (lastly,
from 2004 by 0.6 percentage points to 36.5 % in 2005). The present level is more than three times the
minimum share of 11.2 % observed in 1965.
Whereas the number of births to Austrian nationals shrank by 1.3 % in 2005, that of foreigners
increased by 1.1 %. As a consequence, the share of foreign births rose by 0.2 points to 11.7 %. Thus
the declining trend of previous years was broken albeit the level remained far below the peak of 1999
with 13.7 %, reflecting the growth of the population segment “Austrians born abroad”.
48
Mortality
The number of deaths in 2005 was 75,200, an increase (by 900 or 1.1 %) over the all-time low
recorded in 2004, but still below the levels recorded in 2002 (76,100) and 2003 (77,200). According
to the trend of decreasing age-specific mortality rates, this resulted in a small rise of life expectancy
at birth in 2002 for both sexes (+0.20 to 75.82 years for males and +0.11 to 81.71 years for females),
and in 2003 only for males (+0.12 to 75.94 years; females: -0.14 to 81.57 years). In 2004, however,
a record gain of more than half a year was observed, with life expectancy increasing for males by
0.49 to 76.43 years and for females by 0.57 to 82.14 years. In 2005 the increase of life expectancy
at birth was very similar to that of 2002: for males by 0.22 to 76.65 years and for females by 0.10 to
82.24 years. Since 1970 when a period of stagnation ended, life expectancy at birth has risen annually
by 0.291 years for males and 0.253 years for females. The difference in life expectancy at birth
between the two sexes, which had amounted to a maximum of 7.2 years around 1980, and was still
6.4 years in 1998, has narrowed to 5.6 years. As regards the further life expectancy at retirement age
(60), the average increase over the last 35 years was 0.169 and 0.168 years per annum, to reach (in
2005) 20.78 years for men and 24.67 years for women. Infant mortality has been stagnating for the
ninth consecutive year. Since 1997, when the rate fell below 5.0 infant deaths per 1 000 live births, it
fluctuated between 4.1 and 4.9; in 2005 it was 4.1 per 1 000, after 4.5 in the two preceding years.
Migration
The annual rates of net in-migration worked out at 4.1 per 1 000 population for 2001 and 2002, 4.5
for 2003, 6.2 for 2004 and 6.0 for 2005. It is long established that the overall gain from international
migration results from a net in-migration of foreigners and a corresponding negative balance of Austrian
nationals. The net in-migration of foreigners amounted to 45 400 in 2001, 53 800 in 2002, 51 100 in
2003, 60 600 in 2004 and 54 000 in 2005, i.e. between 6.3 % (2001) and 7.0 % (2005) of the average
foreign stock, peaking at 7.8 % in 2004. Despite the lower figures for 2005, improved coverage of
asylum-seekers in the population register starting from 2004 still resulted in higher migration-gains.
The international migration flows of foreigners comprised annual totals of more than 90 000 arrivals
(in 2005: 101 500) and about 45 000 departures (in 2005: 47 500). The net out-migration of Austrians
was 12 400 in 2001, 20 300 in 2002, 14 800 in 2003, 10 000 in 2004 and 4 800 in 2005, i.e. between
0.06 % (2005) and 0.28 % (2002) of the average stock of nationals. Cross-border flows of Austrians
in 2005 consisted of 16 400 in- and 21 200 out-migrations.
Despite the constant immigration quota of about 8 000 third country nationals, an increase in the net
migration of foreigners has been registered since the late 1990s, which is partly an indirect result of past
migration. The big numbers of immigrants around 1990 have contributed to the rise in naturalisation
figures since 1998 and an expansion of family reunion outside the quota. (By contrast, the small numbers
of immigrants in the mid 1990s have so far led only to the very recent decrease of naturalisation
figures.) Also the re-migration of expatriates who have become naturalised Austrians seems to be more
frequent than before, thus affecting the net out-migration of nationals. Another source for the rising
influx of immigrants is asylum. Statistical totals of asylum-seekers have often run in parallel to net
migration. Although the numbers of applicants for asylum recently dropped from over 30 000 annually
at the millennium to a more moderate 24 600 in 2004 and 22 500 in 2005, Austria - at a rate of 3.0 resp.
2.7 applications per 1 000 population - remains one of the leading host countries in Europe.
49
Nuptiality has been decreasing now for three decades. The number of marriages fell from 39 200 in
2000 by 8.7 % to a minimum of 34 200 in 2001. Likewise, the female TFMR (total first marriage
rate) as an age-standardised measure slumped from 0.546 to the record low of 0.468. In the four years
thereafter the number of marriages increased again, to reach 38 500 in 2004 and 39 200 in 2005. The
female TFMR also showed a partial recovery to 0.500 in 2002, 0.506 in 2003, 0.514 in 2004 and 0.520
in 2005, yet – unlike the number of marriages –remained clearly below the level of the year 2000.
Formal marriage has not only become less frequent but is also occurring later in life. The mean age
at first marriage of women (who married before age 50) has been rising to 28.1 years in 2005, up 0.2
years from 2004, 0.8 years from 2001, and 6.4 years from 1974/76, when the secular trend towards
earlier marriage ceased.
The incidence of divorce has tripled since the 1960s. The annual number of divorces reached its
peak in 2001 with 20 600 or 46.0 per 100 initial marriages (total divorce rate, TDR). In the following
years the number of divorces fluctuated between 19 100 and 19 900 (19 500 in 2005), while the TDR
worked out at between 44 and 46 per 100. However, in 2005, due to the meanwhile reduced stock of
marriages, the TDR (46.4 per 100) topped its 2001 level.
In its most recent update of population projections for the years 2006-2050, Statistics Austria has defined
the following hypotheses for the main scenario: increase in the TFR between 2010 and 2030 from 1.4 to
1.5 with the mean age at fertility rising to 31.0 years; increase in life expectancy through 2050 to 84.3
years for men and 89.0 years for women; constant out-migration rates (i.e. about 80 000 emigrants per
year), annual immigration decreasing from presently 114 000 to 100 000 in 2020 and remaining constant
thereafter (i.e. net in-migration falling from 35 000 now to about 20 000 per year in 2018-2050). On
the basis of these assumptions, Austria’s population will rise - with decreasing increments - to almost
9 million (8 989 800) in the year 2050. This is 9.2 % more than the initial population of 2005. As the
number of 60+ year olds will increase at the same time by two thirds, demographic ageing is inevitable.
The proportion of the elderly will rise from the present 22.0 % to 33.7 % in 2050. The share of the
working age population (15-59 years) will decline from 62.3 % in 2008 to 52.7 % in 2050. Similarly, the
share of children (under 15 years) will decrease form 16.0 % in 2005 to 13.6 % until 2050.
Population-related policy measures were taken within the frame of the “2005 aliens’ law package”, in
the foreign employment act and in the nationality act. These regulations are effective as of 1 January
2006. The main parts of the aliens’ law package are the new codifications of the asylum act, the aliens’
police act, and the immigration act.
The asylum act had before been amended in the context of the EU enlargement of 1 May 2004. The new
release took account of court decisions, evaluations and European directives. Major aim was a further
50
tightening up of procedures, e.g. detention pending deportation, expulsion procedure. This contributed,
among other things, to the simultaneous refurbishment of the aliens’ police act, in which also the trend
towards clear separation of asylum, immigration, and aliens police matters was strengthened.
The aim of the 2005 immigration act (Niederlassungs- und Aufenthaltsgesetz – NAG) was to restructure
all regulations concerning residence and stay of foreigners as well as the timely implementation of
EU law. The titles of stay for third country nationals have been reformatted in five categories, which
differ according to duration of stay and scope of entitlement:
Residence permit for non-temporary, terminable settlement of up to twelve months, with five
subcategories, e.g. key persons (whose permit is issued for 18 months).
Permit of (temporary) stay for a limited period of at least six months, for various purposes, e.g. as
self-employed, student, and researcher.
Permanent stay – EC: unlimited, after five years of legal and continuous stay in Austria, with
unrestricted access to work and mobility within the EU.
Family member (dependant): limited settlement, free access to work.
Permanent stay – dependant: unlimited settlement after five years.
Within the frame of community law documentations, all citizens of the EEA and Switzerland and their
dependants (even if these are third country nationals) who stay in Austria for more than three months
must inform the competent authorities. If all requirements are met, a so-called Anmeldebescheinigung
or a settlement permit for dependants entitles for residence.
The provisions regarding immigration quota have been streamlined. The government has to determine
the quota for five categories every year by decree.
According to the new rules for family reunion relatives of permanently staying third country nationals
have access to work that is restricted for the first twelve months and free thereafter.
The nationality act has been amended to tighten the conditions for naturalisation concerning the
reasons for exclusion, the disposal of income (social assistance is not sufficient), the knowledge about
Austria, and German language ability. Also the waiting period for preferred groups has been unified
and extended to six years.
References
Josef Kytir: Demographische Strukturen und Trends 2005, in: Statistische Nachrichten, ed. by
Statistics Austria, 9/2006, pp. 777-790.
Alexander Hanika: Zukünftige Bevölkerungsentwicklung Österreichs 2006 bis 2050 (2075), in:
Statistische Nachrichten, ed. by Statistics Austria, 10/2006, pp. 868-885.
51
Portugal
Population
At 1 January 2006, the total resident population of Portugal was estimated at 10 569 592 (5 115 742
men and 5 453 850 women). This estimate is based on the final results of the 12 March 2001 Census,
adjusted by the associated errors of coverage and updated by the vital statistics over the period.
The population growth in 2005 was 0.38% (0.52% in 2004). The main cause for the population growth
was the positive balance of international migration (0.36%) while the natural increase remained low
(0.02%).
Both, the number of live births (0.1%) and deaths (5.4%) increased. The natural increase (1 937) is
lower than in the previous year and the net migration declined to 38 400 (49 200 people entered the
country and 10 800 left). In recent years, immigration has become more frequent, especially from
Eastern European countries, but the pace is has been slowing down since 2003.
The ageing of the population continued and the proportion of older persons (aged 65 and over) is
higher than the proportion of the young population – 17.1% and 15.6%, respectively. The share of the
population of working age (15-64 years) is 67.3%. The demographic ageing is due to a decline in the
number of young people and an increase of the number of older persons. The potential support ratio
is around four working age persons per one older person.
The older persons are themselves ageing. The proportion of the oldest (80 or over) as a percentage of
total older persons rose to 19.5% for men and 25.4% for women.
The older persons outnumbered the young persons and the elderly ratio is estimated to have risen to
110 in 2005 (90 for males and 132 for females).
In 2005, the distribution by sex at ages 65 or over was estimated at 72 men per 100 women; at age 80
it was 55, while at age 85 it was only 48 men per 100 women.
The dependency ratio, which indicates the number of the old and young people in the population of
working age, has increase to 49 dependants per 100 in 2005 (48 in 2004), while the elderly dependency
ratio (25) and the young dependency ratio (23) remain on the same level of 2004.
Fertility
The number of live births in 2005 was 109 399 and the crude birth rate remained at 10.4‰.
The proportion of children born out of wedlock has increased sharply in recent years and it stood
at 30.7% in 2005 (29.1% in 2004). The proportion of first and second births was 53.7% and 34.4%
52
in 2005, which is higher than in the previous year (53.5% and 33.9%, respectively in 2004). On the
other hand, third, fourth and fifth and higher rank births reported a decrease: to 8.6%, 2.2% and 1.2%
(8.8%, 2.4% and 1.3%, respectively in 2004).
In 2005, Portugal shows fertility rates lower than in 2004, except for women aged over 35 years. The
age at which women have children is tending to increase whereas the fertility rate continued to be
high for adolescents aged 15-19 (19.0‰).
The fertility rate for women aged 20-24 years was 47.6‰ (48.2‰ in 2004), for women aged 25-29
years was 84.3‰ (85.3‰ in 2004) and for women aged 30-34 was 85.3‰ (83.6‰ in 2004). The
fertility rate for women between the ages of 35 and 39 grew to 37.6‰ in 2005 (36.1‰ in 2004), for
women aged 40-44 years increased to 7.4‰ (7.3‰ in 2004) and for women aged 45-49 declined to
around 0.4‰ (0.6‰ in 2004).
The data for 2005 shows a slight increase of the total fertility rate to 1.41 children per 1000 women
(1.40 children per 1000 women in 2004).
The postponement of the first birth to an older age continued. The average age of women at the birth
of her first child is rising, reaching 27.8 years in 2005 (27.5 in 2004). The average age of women at
childbirth rose to 29.6 in 2005 (29.4 in 2004).
Mortality
The number of deaths among Portuguese residents has increased by 5.4% compared to the previous
year and the mortality rate increased to 10.2‰. The fall in infant mortality has become steeper in
recent years and reached the lowest level in 2005 (3.5 deaths per 1000 live births).
The mortality differences by sex and age are very important and have consequences for the population
structure. The over-mortality of men, especially in certain ages, leads to strong differences between
the life expectancy of men and women. In 2005, life expectancy at birth was 74.9 years for men
(74.5 years in 2004) and 81.4 for women (80.1 years in 2004). The life expectancy at age 65 increased
to 16.2 years for men and 19.6 years for women against 16.0 and 19.3 respectively in 2005.
According to the last available data based on CID10, diseases of the circulatory system are the
main cause of death in Portugal (36.3% of the total deaths in 2004). Although the number of cases
of cerebrovascular disease decreased in recent years, it was still the major cause of death among
the diseases of the circulatory system for both men (13.7%) and women (21.8%). Malignant or
other neoplasms (24.8% for men and 18.5% for women) caused about 21.8% of deaths. The human
immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV) was responsible for 1.4% of deaths among men and 0.4% among
women.
In 2004, 32.2% of external causes of deaths were due to accidents of transport particularly among
men (35.2% for men and 24.5% for women).
53
Migration
Population censuses, the National Statistical Institute (INE) survey on emigration, the employment
survey and the registers of the Borders and Immigration Department (SEF) of the Ministry of the
Internal Administration are the national sources of information available for the study of international
migration.
Processing the final results of the 2001 census, analysis of data quality and the statistics provided by
countries receiving Portuguese emigrants have enabled recent migration movements to be quantified
more accurately. Migration plays a very important part in population growth in Portugal, traditionally
a country with net emigration: in the 90s the migration flow changed direction and the country is now
faced with a migration surplus.
The resident foreign population is substantially increasing in Portugal. According to the 2005
provisional data provided by the Borders and Immigration Department of the Ministry of the Internal
Administration, a legal population of 275 906 individuals be resident in Portugal, i.e. 2.6% of the
total population.
The highest part of foreigners comes from Africa but the tendency is declining: 45.6% in 2005 against
46.4% in the previous year. The number of immigrants from Cape Verde has decreased to 20.5% in
2005 (21.0% in 2004), whereas the proportion of people coming from Angola and Guinea-Bissau has
also diminished to 10.0% and to 7.7% respectively over the same period. The proportion of Europeans
residents in Portugal continued to increase in 2005 to 32.1% (31.6% in 2004). Most of the European
immigrants come from United Kingdom (6.9%), Spain (5.9%) and Germany (4.9%). The proportion
of Brazilian residents was about 11.4% in 2005, against 10.9% in 2004. In the 90s immigration from
Eastern Europe have had grow, especially from Ukraine, Moldova, Russia and Romania, and in 2005
represents 2.3% of the total foreigners resident in Portugal.
Two schemes to regularise the situation of illegal immigrants have been carried out by the Immigration
and Border Department (SEF) of the Ministry of the Interior; one in 1992/93 and the other in 1996.
An exceptional regularisation for Brazilians was carried out in 2003.
The upturn in the number of marriages observed in the late 90s has not been confirmed over the
last years. In 2005, 48 671 marriages were celebrated (49 178 in 2004) and the crude marriage rate
declined to 4.6‰ (4.7‰ in 2004).
People are marrying progressively later. Since 1984, the average age at first marriage has risen steadily:
in 2005 it was 28.9 years for men and 27.3 for women. During the last two decades the mean age at
first marriage rose by 3.3 years for men and 3.7 years for women.
The marriage rate for single women up to the age of 50 decreased: 56% of women married for the first
time before the age of 50 against 52% of single men (57%, and 53% in 2004, respectively).
54
The numbers of consensual unions have not been statistically measured. The most recent figures date
from the census of 12 March 2001. At this time, there were 5 519 570 individuals married or living
together of whom 5 148 049 were legally married and 371 521 were living in a consensual union, i.e.
6.7% of all couples (3.9% in 1991).
In 2005 the number of divorces reached 22 576 and the crude divorce rate was 2.1‰. The substantial
growth observed between 2001 (18 851) and 2002 (27 708) was due to the adoption of a law which
aims to facilitate divorce procedures.
The population projections compiled by National Statistical Institute (NSI) are based on the final
results of the 2001 census adjusted by the associated errors of coverage and the available demographic
indicators for the period 1940-2001. The national projections are distinguished by sex and single year
of age until 100 and over, with a time horizon of 2050.
The data suggests a decreasing of the population after 2010 to reach 9 302 500 inhabitants in 2050.
The ageing of the population will continue: in 2025, there will be 173 people aged 65 years or over
for every 100 young people of under 15 years and in 2050 the ratio will be about 243.
The projections reported the outputs of the baseline scenario adopted which forecasts: a slight increase
in the total fertility rates, reaching the level of 1.71 children per woman; a reduction in mortality with
a rapid increase on life expectancy (79.0 years for men and 84.7 for women); a fall in infant mortality
to 3‰ by the year 2050 and a small positive net migration over the period.
During the last years, new legislation was adopted concerning family, immigration policy, foreign
workers and their social integration.
In the domain of social protection, new legislation was adopted concerning solidarity and the social
security system relating to maternity, paternity and adoption, family allowances and minimum
pensions. In general, the objective is to improve the benefits for the most needy families and older
persons (Law nº 35/2004 of 29July and Government Decree nº 584/2004 of 28 May). The duration of
maternity leave is 120 days (paid at 100% of the average daily wages) and 150 days (paid at 80% of
the average daily wages).
Legislation was adopted to facilitate friendly divorce in 2002.
Other measures were taken about equality of opportunities and non discrimination between women
and men and support for women victims of domestic violence, reinforcing recent legislation in these
domains.
55
Slovenia
Milena Ilic, Katja Kalin, Apolonija Oblak Flander,
Janja Povhe, Darja Ster and Tina Znidarsic
Population
At the end of 2005 there were 2,003,358 people living in Slovenia. During 2005 the population grew
by 0.3% as a result of positive net migration. A natural decrease has been recorded since 1997.
At the end of 2005 the population consisted of 2.4% foreign citizens. Almost half of them (44.8%)
were citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina, 18.9% of Serbia and Montenegro and 14.2% of Croatia.
Demographic ageing of the country continues. On 31 December 2005 the mean age of men was 38.9
years and of women 42.2 years, which means that since 1995 the mean age of men has increased by
3.4 years and of women by 3.2 years.
In the past decade there has been a constant decrease in the share of children aged 0-14 and an increase
in the population aged 65 or more. At the end of 2005 the population consisted of 14.1% aged below
15 years and 15.6% aged 65 or more. The ageing index for men was 82.1 and for women 140.5.
Fertility
In 2005, 18,157 births were registered, which is the first time it has exceeded 18.000 after the year 2000.
The crude birth rate increased to 9.1 children per 1000 population and the total rate also increased.
The total fertility rate in Slovenia is among the lowest in Europe. In 2005 it was 1.26. In 1980 it was
over 2.1 children per woman for the last time and after that it started to decline. The fertility rate for
women under 25 has been decreasing, while for women aged 30-34 it has been increasing. In 2005
most children were born to women aged 29 years.
In 2005 the mean age of mothers at childbirth was 29.4 years and at the birth of the first child 27.7
years. In the past twenty years the mean age of mothers at childbirth rose by almost 4 years, while the
mean age of mothers at first childbirth rose by 4.6 years.
Ever more children are born outside marriage. In 2005 the share was 46.7%. The share of first and
second order births was slightly more than 85%. First order births represent a half (50.4%) of all live
births.
The number of induced abortions is declining in all age groups. In 2005, 5,851 induced abortions
were registered, which is 0.32 induced abortions per one live birth.
56
Mortality
Compared to the previous year, in 2005 the number of deaths increased again. 18,825 people died
(9,413 men and 9,412 women), which is 302 or 1.6% more than in 2004. The crude death rate was
9.4 per 1,000 population or 0.1 higher than in 2004 and 0.3 lower than in 2003.
Among deaths there were 75 deaths of infants under one year of age; 41 boys and 34 girls. The
number of infant deaths per 1,000 live births increased from 3.7 in 2004 to 4.1 in 2005.
The mean age of death for men was 0.6 year and for women 0.9 year higher than in 2004. In 2005
the age of men at death was on average 9 years lower than the age of women. The mean age of men
was 68.9 years and of women 77.8 years. In the last three decades the mean age of men at death
rose by almost 6 years (5.8) and of women by more than 7 years (7.2).
Life expectancy is on the rise. A boy born in 2004-2005 can expect to live 74.1 years and a girl 81.3
years. Compared to 2003-2004, life expectancy for men rose by 0.59 year and for women by 0.22
year. In the last decade, life expectancy rose by 3.8 years for men and by 3.5 years for women. After
World War II, life expectancy rose by 15.4 years for men and by 16.5 years for women.
The main causes of death stay the same. In 2005 every fourth person died because of the diseases of
the circulatory system. Among them more women than men; 427 women and 337 men per 100,000
women/men. A quarter of all deaths (27%) were malignant neoplasms as the second most frequent
cause of death. The most common type of cancer for men was lung cancer and the most common
cancer among women was breast cancer. Respiratory disease followed. The fourth common cause
of death was accidents. In 2005 more than 8 persons per 100 deaths died because of accidents and
suicides; 5 because of accidents, 3 because of suicide.
Migration
In 2005, 15,041 people immigrated to Slovenia; 13,294 (88.4%) of them were foreigners. On the
other hand, 8,605 people emigrated from Slovenia, most of them (6,528 or 75.9% of all emigrants)
foreign citizens.
6,436 more people immigrated to Slovenia than emigrated from it. Positive net migration was recorded
among foreigners only (6,766), while net migration of the citizens of the Republic of Slovenia – which
has been negative since 2000 – was negative again (–330).
Compared to 2004, the number of immigrants to Slovenia increased by 47.9%, while the number of
emigrants was up by 4.1%.
Increased net migration, which was compared to 2004 almost 3.5 times higher, was the result of the
higher number of immigrants and a negligible difference in the number of emigrants.
In the observed year, a noticeable number of citizens of other EU countries who immigrated to Slovenia
was recorded for the first time (in total 12.6% of all foreigners who immigrated to Slovenia). In the past
57
years, Slovenia had weak migration flows with other EU member states – in 2004, for example, citizens
of other EU member states represented only 2.7% of all foreigners who immigrated to Slovenia.
In general, the trends of immigration of foreigners to Slovenia did not change in 2005. The majority
of foreign citizens who immigrated to Slovenia were men (75.9%); most of them citizens of Bosnia
and Herzegovina, followed by citizens of Serbia and Montenegro, the former Yugoslav Republic of
Macedonia and Croatia.
Among all foreigners who immigrated to Slovenia in 2005, 77.5% were citizens of former Yugoslav
Republics.
After 1991, the most numerous immigration or return of citizens of Slovenia to the country was
recorded in the first years after Slovenia’s independence, when they were coming back mostly from
ex-Yugoslav Republics.
In the last decade, the highest number of Slovene citizens immigrated to Slovenia (1,747 people)
in 2005. Most of them returned from Germany (18.2%), which since 2000 has been the previous
residence for the majority of immigrated Slovene citizens. 27.9% immigrated (returned) from the
countries established on the territory of Former Yugoslavia (from Croatia, Serbia and Montenegro
and Bosnia and Herzegovina). Other countries from which they were coming are Italy, Austria and
Switzerland (approx. 5.0% from each).
In 2005, 2,077 citizens of Slovenia emigrated abroad, which is less than in the previous year. More
than a half of them (1,134) emigrated to near or neighbouring countries: Germany (21.7%), Austria
(11.0%), Croatia (9.7%), Italy (7.2%) and Switzerland (5.0%). That means that in 2005 destination
countries of Slovene emigrants remained the same.
The number of marriages is dropping rapidly. In 2005, the number of marriages dropped below 6
thousand for the first time ever; 5,769 marriages took place or 789 (12%) less than in 2004. In 2005,
the number of marriages per 1000 population dropped to 2.9. 90.8% of grooms and 92.7% of brides
were married for the first time.
The mean age of groom and bride at marriage is on the rise. The mean age of groom has exceeded
30 years of age since the mid-1990s and it was 33 years in 2005. The mean age of bride is also
approaching 30 years of age with 29.8 years.
The mean age of groom and bride at first marriage is also on the rise. A groom married for the first
time in 2005 was 30.6 years old and a bride 28.2. The mean age of newlyweds was thus almost 6 years
higher than 3 decades ago.
In 2005 the total first marriage rate reached the lowest rate for the first time ever. At the beginning
of the 1980s the total first marriage rate was over 0.70, at the beginning of the 1990s it was just over
0.50. Since 2000 onward it started to drop rapidly and it reached the lowest rate in 2005 with 0.36.
58
In 2005, the number of divorces increased with a similar intensity as the drop in the number of
marriages. 2,647 divorces took place, which is 236 or 10% more than in 2004. The divorce rate per
1000 population was 1.3, while a year before it was 1.2.
The total divorce rate, which was 0.162 in 1994, rose to 0.273 in 2005.
Marriages tend to last longer. Three decades ago more than one third of all marriages were divorced
in the first four years of marriage and more than a quarter of marriages lasted for 5-9 years. Only 12%
of marriages lasted more than 20 years. In 2005, 14% of marriages lasted up to 4 years and 34.1% of
marriages lasted more than 20 years. A marriage divorced in 2005 lasted on average for 16.1 years.
As the duration of marriages is increasing, the number of divorces without dependent children is
rising because children had already left their families by the time their parents divorced. Two decades
ago a quarter of divorced couples were without dependent children. In 2005 it was close to a half
(47.6%).
59
Slovakia
Zuzana Podmanická
According to demographic data for the reference year 2005, mainly the following tendencies were
apparent in population reproduction in the Slovak Republic in 2005: a year-to-year number of live
births has increased; after the three-year population decrease over the period 2001 - 2003, a natural
increase was reached again in 2005; life expectancy at birth for males has been above the age-limit of
70 years; for females it has nearly met the age limit of 78 years of age.
As of 31 December 2005, 5 389 180 inhabitants with permanent residence lived in the Slovak
Republic, of which 51.5% women. There were 943 men per 1 000 women, as well as in 2004.
As of end of the year 2005, in Slovakia, there were 2 891 municipalities including 4 military districts,
of which 138 cities. There were 1 864 inhabitants per 1 municipality. 2 986 802 inhabitants lived in
urban area, i.e. 55.4% of the total population and 2 402 378 inhabitants lived in rural area, i.e. 44.6%.
The Slovak Republic area was 49 034 km2, population density 110 persons per 1 km2.
The structure of the population by basic age groups shows an ongoing decrease in the pre-productive
population (aged 0 - 14 years) in consequence of a long-term declining birth rate. Compared to 2004,
the share of the pre-productive population fell by 0.5 points to 16.6% of the total population. At the
end of 2005, there were 894.3 thousand 0 - 14-year olds in Slovak population, a year-to-year decrease
of 24.6 thousand.
The year-to-year number of the productive population (aged 15 - 64 years) increased by 22.3 thousand
to 3 862.2 thousand, the share of 71.7% in the total Slovak population. The age structure of the postproductive population (aged 65 years and over) has gradually changed as well. Compared to 2004,
the number of post-productive inhabitants increased by 0.1 points to 11.7% of the total population;
in absolute terms that means an increase of almost 7 thousand persons to the value of 632.6 thousand
persons.
As a result of the decrease in 0 - 14-year olds and the increase in 65-and-over-year olds, the aging
index continues to rise. Compared to 2004, the aging index went up by 2.6 points, so there were
71 persons aged over 65 years per 100 persons aged 0 - 14 in 2005.
Compared to 2004, the average age of inhabitants increased in both males and females; for males it
reached 35.8 years, for females 39.0 years.
Although the economic dependency ratio shows still a downward trend, from the long-term
perspective this decline gradually drops, and a period when it stops and changes into growth is not
far in consequence of a gradually increasing share of the non-productive population compared to the
decrease of the productive population. In 2005, the economic dependency ratio reached the value of
39.5, which means there were 40 dependent persons (i.e. those of age 0 - 14 and 65 years and over)
per 100 persons aged 15 - 64.
60
Fertility
In 2005, 54.4 thousand live children were born, almost 700 more than in the year 2004. Since 2004,
the crude live-birth rate increased by 0.1 points and reached 10.1 per mille.
Age-specific fertility rates of females have also changed. The level of fertility rates in women of
higher age is also documented by increase of the average age in woman at childbirth. Since 2001, the
average age of woman at live childbirth has increased from 26.5 years to 27.5 years for the average
age at live birth of all children, and from 24.1 to 25.7 years for the average age at live birth of the
first child.
Total fertility rate decreased until the year 2001, since then it has slightly increased as a result of a
higher birth rate. In 2005 it was represented by the value of 1.25.
In terms of birth order of live births in relation to all previous deliveries of the mother, 46.4% children
of the total number of live-born children were born in the first birth while 31.9% in the second birth.
Changes are also apparent in the statistics of children born in wedlock and out of wedlock. Over
the recent years mainly, the share of children born out of wedlock has increased considerably:
while until 1990 it ranged between 4% - 5%, in 2005 it was represented by 26%.
The year 2005 confirmed the trend of previous years in development of abortion rate while the number
of abortions and the abortion rate were declining.
19.3 thousand abortions were reported in 2005; it is over 700 less than in the previous year. The crude
abortion rate decreased by 0.1 points compared to 2004, and reached 3.6 per mille. Also, the abortion
index declined, there were 35 abortions per 100 births (in 2004 it was 37 abortions).
Mortality
Since 1993, the crude mortality rate has remained under 10 per mille. There were 53.5 thousand
deaths in 2005, i.e. 1.6 thousand more than in the previous year. The crude mortality rate went up by
0.3 points to 9.9 per mille.
In terms of gender, mortality at male population is higher than at female population. For 40 - 54 yearolds, male mortality exceeds female mortality 2.5 to 3 times.
In 2005, the most frequent causes of death at male population were diseases of the circulatory
system (47.8%), neoplasms (24.7%) and external causes (i.e. injuries and poisoning (8.7%)). The
share of the circulatory system diseases was highest also at female population (61.9%); the next
causes of death were neoplasms (19.5%) and respiratory diseases (5.2%).
61
Migration
In 2005, the positive net migration represented 3 403 persons. 5 276 immigrated and 1 873 emigrated.
The number of registered immigrants to the Slovak Republic increased by 18%, the number of
emigrants by 18% as well.
The structure of immigrants has not changed over the last couple of years. In 2005, most immigrants
from European countries were from the Czech Republic (1 144 persons), followed by Germany (742
persons), Austria (325 persons), Poland (311 persons), Ukraine (251 persons), Hungary (248 persons)
and Serbia and Montenegro (200 persons). The numbers of immigrants from other European countries
are negligible. For non-European countries, most immigrants to the Slovak Republic came from the
Republic of Korea (201 persons), USA (187 persons) and from Vietnam (92 persons).
84.6% persons emigrated from the Slovak Republic to European countries: 734 to the Czech Republic,
303 to Germany, 200 to Austria, 107 to Switzerland, and 74 to the United Kingdom. For non-European
countries, most persons emigrated from the Slovak Republic to the USA (109 persons) and Canada
(90 persons).
In relation to other non-European countries, migration turnover was negligible in the Slovak
Republic.
In the year 2005, 26.1 thousand new marriages were concluded; it is 1.7 thousand less than in the
last year but almost 2.4 thousand more than in the year 2001 where a record was reached by the
historically lowest number of marriages since the year 1920. From 2002, there have been positive
changes in marriage rate evolution accompanied with postponing of marriages in women and men of
higher age. However, increasing intensity of marriage rate after the year 2001 stopped in 2005. Crude
marriage rate decreased to 4.9 per mille. Increase in the average age at first marriage continued; in
2005 this average age reached 28.2 years for males and 25.6 years for females.
In terms of number of concluded marriages by age of bride and groom, the year-to-year number of
marriages has most decreased among 20 - 24-year old males (by 1.7 thousand, i.e. by 25.4%). Since
2000, the highest number of marriages has remained among 25 - 29-year old males (44 marriages per
1 000 males).
For females, the number of concluded marriages compared to 2004 has most decreased among up–to19-year-olds (by 603, i.e. 25.6%) and amongst 20 - 24-year olds (by 1 849, i.e. 17.0%). The highest
number of marriages has been amongst 25 - 29-year old females (41.5 marriages per 1 000 females).
The tendency of a long-term increase of divorce rate is lasting with some exceptions from the year
1954. In the year 2005, there were almost 11.6 divorces (per 1000 marriages). Crude divorce rate has
slightly increased, and, in 2005, it has been represented by the value of 2.1 per mille. The divorce
index increased too, there were 44 divorces per 100 concluded marriages, the highest value ever
reached in the Slovak Republic.
62
For men, and also women, the highest number of divorces has remained among 30 - 34-year olds.
Generally, the average age at divorce has been gradually increasing: for men to 39.6 years, for
women to 37.0 years in 2005. In terms of causes of divorces, most divorces were generally caused
by difference of characters, attitudes and interests (59.2%). For men the next causes of divorces were
adultery (11.9%) and addiction to alcohol (10.4%), for women cases where no infliction was found
by court (17.4%), and other reasons (10.5%).
Divorces have unfavourable consequences on the well-being of under-age children who thus loose
one parent. In 2005, 7.6 divorced couples (65.9%) had under-age children, of which 58.7% couples
had one child and 34.8% two children. Since 1999, the average number of children of divorced
couples has remained at 1.5.
On the basis of the results of the 2001 Population and Housing Census, the Statistical Office of the
Slovak Republic has calculated new projections on the evolution of the population up to 2025. The
new population projection is processed in three variants (low, medium, high), which differ from
each other in scenario of the expected reproductive indicators and migration. By the combination of
parameters of particular processes (fertility, mortality and migration), the scenarios of the presupposed
population development in all three variants were achieved.
The population projection was calculated by means of the component method, which was based on
the shifting of age groups, their diminishing due to the mortality impact, supplementing by the livebirths in accordance with the presupposed intensity of fertility, and their increase or decrease due to
the migration impact.
According to the alternatives, the population will develop as follows:
Number of population, 2010-2025, Slovak Republic
(in thousand persons, as of 31 Dec.)
Alternative
Year
Low
%
Medium
%
High
%
2010
5 342
99.31
5 360
99.65
5 386
100.13
2015
5 291
98.36
5 329
99.07
5 388
100.17
2020
5 211
96.88
5 278
98.12
5 374
99.91
2025
5 096
94.74
5 199
96.65
5 335
99.18
63
Finland
Markus Rapo
Population
At the end of 2005, the population of Finland totalled 5 255 580. This represents an increase of
18 969 persons, i.e. 0.4 %, from the year before. In the previous year, population growth was 16 879
persons.
Of the population, 17.3 % were aged under 15, 66.7 % were between 15 and 64 and 16.0 % over
65. The proportion of children in the total population decreased by 0.2 percentage points from the
previous year, whereas the proportion of elderly people rose. The mean-age of the population was
40.5 years. From the beginning of 1990s the mean-age has risen by three years.
Fertility
In 2005, 57 745 births occurred, which was 13 less than the year before.
The total fertility rate was 1.8, which was a little higher than the year before. The fertility rate was
highest for women aged 27 to 30.
During the last 30 years, the birth rate has gone either up or down. The total fertility rate has varied
between 1.50 in 1973 and 1.85 in 1992 and 1994.
Mortality
The number of deaths totalled 47 928 in 2005, that was 328 more than the year before. As measured
by the 2005 mortality rate, the life expectancy of males at birth was 75.5 years and that of females 82.3
years. Life expectancy of males and females was slightly longer than the year before. From 1990s, the
life expectancy of males has extended by about 4 years and that of females by about 3 years.
Infant mortality was (correction 3.3 ‰ in 2004) 3.0 ‰ in 2005. In year 2001 infant mortality was 3.2;
the figure has varied 3.0 ‰ to 3.3 ‰ in the past few years.
Migration
A total of 21 355 persons immigrated to Finland and 12 369 persons emigrated from Finland. Net
immigration was thus 8 986, about 2 300 more than the year before. Immigration increased over the
previous year and emigration decreased by almost 1 300 persons.
64
The majority of immigrants were from Sweden, 3 950 persons. Most of them were Finnish citizens.
The second highest number of immigrants came from Russia, 2 145 persons. The highest emigration
occurred to Sweden, 3 301, and the second most to United Kingdom, 1 319 persons.
At the end of 2005, 113 852 foreign citizens were living in Finland, that is 2.2 % of the total population.
The number of foreign citizens was 5 506 higher than the year before. Finnish citizenship was granted
to 5 683 foreigners in 2005, which was 1 197 less than year before.
In 2005, the number of marriages was 29 283, which is 59 less than the year before. 13 383 couples
divorced, which is 149 more than the year before.
At the end of 2005, there were 1 426 002 families in Finland. The number is 5 221 higher than the
year before. As many as 293 437 couples were cohabiting, i.e. 20.6 % of families. There were 5 048
more cohabiting couples than the previous year.
Latest population projection by municipality up to the year 2050 and a projection for the whole
country up to the year 2050 were made in autumn 2004. According to the projection, the population
of Finland will be at its highest at the end of the 2020s, when it will be 5.4 million. After that, the
population size will go down permanently.
The large age groups born after the Second World War will reach the age of 65 from 2010 onwards.
The number of pensioners and their proportion in the total population will go up sharply at that time.
In 2030 the number of over 65-year-olds will be 70.9 % more than now. Pensioners will then account
for 26.1 % of the total population, 0-15-year-olds for 15.7 % and 15 to 64 year-olds for 58.2 %. In
2030 the mean age of the population will be 44.64.
According to the projection, the annual number of births will fall below the limit of 55 000 at the end
of 2020s. The annual number of deaths will be at its highest around 2040; the number will then be
nearly 70 000, i.e. 40 % more than now. According to the projection, the annual number of deaths will
exceed that of births in the mid-2020s.
The fertility rates were kept constant when calculating the projection. The total fertility rate is 1.8.
Mortality is expected to go down in accordance with the trend calculated from the early 1980s to the
early 2000s. The projection predicts that the life expectancy of males will be 81.3 years and that of
women 85.8 years in 2030. Annual net immigration is expected to be 6 000 persons.
65
Sweden
Annika Klintefelt and Hans Lundtröm
Population
The population size was 9 047 752 at the end of 2005. Due to a high net migration and also a surplus
of births over deaths the population increased by 0.4 %.
Fertility
Sweden’s “roller-coaster” fertility rate has received international attention. In 1965 fertility started
to decline as in most other European countries and during the period 1965 to 1980 the total fertility
rate dropped from almost 2.5 to 1.7 children per woman. In the 1980s fertility rates grew rapidly and
reached 2.14 in 1990 – one of the highest fertility rates in Europe at the time. The high fertility rate
imposed a new situation in a country known for piloting modern demographic behaviour and low
fertility levels.
The number of births of the second order and above begun to increase already in 1978. The
postponement of first births continued until 1984 when the number of first births started to increase
among younger women. This trend continued throughout the second half of the 1980s.
Calculations for benefits from Sweden’s family insurance system are based on the earnings recorded
over the months prior to birth. This provides an incentive to postpone parenthood until the level of
earnings corresponds to a suitable level of benefits. Since 1980 the system also contains an element
which encourages closely spaced births. If the interval between two births is 24 months or less (30
months from 1986) the benefit level for the second child is based on the earnings before the birth of
the first child.
Since the early 1990s fertility was again declining rapidly. The economic recession, increased
unemployment and less generous family policies were contributing factors. In 1999 the total fertility
rate reached an all time low of 1.5. The fertility has increased since then and in 2005 the total fertility
rate was 1.77.
Mortality
Mortality has continued to decrease. In 2004 life expectancy was 78.42 for males and 82.78 for females.
Infant mortality reached the lowest level ever in 2005 with only 2.4 deaths per 1 000 live births.
66
Migration
In 2005, 65 229 people immigrated to Sweden and 38 118 emigrated. This led to a positive net
migration of 27 111. Roughly one third of the immigrants were Swedish or Nordic citizens. As
compared to 2004, immigration increased with around 3 200 persons. The largest raise was observed
for December 2005, when an additional 33 percentage immigrants were recorded in the national
population registration than during the corresponding period in 2004. The increase in December may
be a result of the introduction of a temporary law which applies from 15 November 2005. The law
gives people who have been denied residence permits and who have stayed in Sweden for a long
period of time, the right to a new assessment.
After the marriage boom in 1989 (109 000), caused by a change in the regulation of widow’s pensions,
the number of marriages is again approximating the pre-1989 yearly average of 40 000. After 1989
the number of marriages declined and reached 31 600 in 1998. In 2005 the number of marriages rose
to 44 381. The number of divorces was 20 000.
Approximately 240 men and 350 women registered a partnership in 2005.
In the population projection of 2006 fertility is assumed to increase from 1.77 children per woman in
2005 to 1.85 in 2010 and then remain at that level. The decrease in mortality is assumed to continue,
resulting in an increase of life expectancy from 78.4 years in 2005 to 81.4 by 2025 for men and from
82.8 years to 84.7 for women. Immigration is assumed to increase from 65 000 persons to 71 000 in
2025 and emigration is assumed to increase from 38 000 to 47 000 in 2025. Projections are updated
yearly with a major revision every third year (latest major revision 2006).
The projections show a slow population increase. The ageing of the population will continue and the
dependency rate will increase from 0.70 to 0.81 in the year 2025.
67
Year
Number of persons (in thousands) by age
Dependency rate
Total
0-19
20-39
40-64
65-79
80+
(0-19+65-)/20-64)
1975
8 208
2 231
2 323
2 403
1 026
225
0.74
1984
8 343
2 113
2 388
2 416
1 121
304
0.74
1990
8 591
2 111
2 379
2 574
1 157
370
0.73
1995
8 837
2 172
2 418
2 704
1 129
415
0.73
2000
8 883
2 139
2 369
2 844
1 078
453
0.70
2005
9 048
2 159
2 320
3 004
1 078
487
0.70
2010
9 257
2 127
2 358
3 044
1 236
491
0.71
2015
9 460
2 094
2 411
3 032
1 435
488
0.74
2020
9 680
2 195
2 400
3 029
1 531
525
0.78
2025
9 888
2 265
2 423
3 028
1 524
648
0.81
68
United Kingdom
Population
The population of the United Kingdom has grown by around 0.4 % per annum over the last ten
years, to an estimated 60.0 million by mid-2005. Both natural increase and net inward migration have
contributed to population growth in the last year, with natural increase contributing 127 000 and net
inward migration around 248 000 in the year to mid-2005.
The population age structure is changing, reflecting past trends in annual births, and the increasing
life expectancy. The proportion of the population over the state retirement age (currently 60 years
for women and 65 years for men) rose from 17 % in 1975, to 19 % in 2005. In the last 10 years, the
population aged over 75 has increased steadily. In 2005, 4.6 million persons were aged 75 or over, an
increase of 0.5 million compared with 1995. The proportion of the population aged under 16 years
was 19% in 2005, compared with 21 % in 1995 and 1985 and 25 % in 1975.
Fertility
There were 722,600 live births in 2005, a decrease of 6600 compared with 2004. Consequently, the
crude birth rate remained constant at 12.0 live births per thousand population in 2005. The provisional
total fertility rate increased to 1.79. The mean age at childbirth has risen steadily since 1971, to a peak
of 29.5 years in 2005.
The fertility rate for women aged 30-34 first overtook that of women aged 25-29 in 2004 and remained
higher in 2005 at 100.9 births per thousand women. This is the first time since 1998 that the fertility
rates for any age group exceeded 100 births per thousand women. In 2005, fertility increased fastest
for women aged 40 and over, rising to 10.8 births per thousand women, compared to 6.8 in 1995 and
4.9 in 1981. These age specific fertility rates are for England and Wales.
The long-term rise in the proportion of births outside marriage continued: 42.8% of live births were
outside marriage in 2005, compared with 42.2 % in 2004, 12.5% in 1981 and 8.2% in 1971. (All 2005
births and fertility data are provisional).
Mortality
There were 583 000 deaths occurring in 2004, a slight decrease (3 %) from 2001. The crude death rate
in 2004 has decreased since 2001 to 9.7 deaths per thousand population.
Age-specific fertility rates calculated using the method used in UK’s Annual Reference Volume.
69
Infant mortality rates have declined significantly over the last 30 years; 73 % since 1970, and 59 %
since 1980. However, it has now levelled out to some extent and the infant mortality rate in 2004 was
5.0 deaths under one year per 1 000 live births, compared with 5.5 in 2001 and with 12.2 in 1980.
Life expectancy continues to rise steadily. Based on 2000-2004 mortality rates, life expectancy at
birth was 76.3 years for men, and 80.7 years for women. Based on the same rates, men aged 65 years
could expect, on average, to live a further 16.4 years, while women of the same age could expect to
live a further 19.3 years.
Migration
Estimates for 2004 showed there was a net migration into the UK of 223 000 people. This Total
International Migration figure is based mainly on data from the International Passenger Survey which
provides estimates based on respondents’ intended length of stay. It also includes adjustments for (1)
those whose intended length of stay changes so that their migrant status changes; (2) asylum seekers
and their dependants not identified by the IPS; and (3) flows between the UK and the Republic of
Ireland.
The average estimate of the population of foreign citizenship in the UK on 1 January 2005 was 2.9
million, about 181 000 more than at 1 January 2004. An increase in the number of citizens of Asian
and European countries accounted for most of this change in 2004.
There were provisionally 311,180 marriages in the UK in 2004. This is 1 per cent more than in 2003
when there were 308,620 marriages and is the third successive annual increase. However, there has
been a long-term decline from the peak number of 480,285 marriages in 1972.
The crude marriage rate has declined from 8.2 marriages per thousand population in 1971 to 5.2 in
2004.
The average (mean) age at first marriage in England and Wales has risen steadily over the same
period, reaching 29.1 years for women and 31.4 years for men in 2004.
Between 2004 and 2005, the number of divorces granted in the UK decreased by 7 per cent to 155,052,
from 167,138. This is the lowest number of divorces since 2000, and the first annual decrease since
1999/2000. This is 14 per cent lower than the highest number of divorces which peaked in 1993
(180,018).
In part this reflects the long-term decrease in the number of marriages. The crude divorce rate declined
from 3.1 divorces per thousand population in 1993, to 2.6 in 2005.
The decline in the number of marriages is associated with changing patterns of family types, in
particular, the increase in the number of cohabiting couples.
70
For example, the proportion of non-married women under the age of 60 in Great Britain who were
cohabiting in 1986 was 13 %. By 2004 this proportion had risen to 25 %, so that a quarter of nonmarried women aged 16-59 was now cohabiting.
71
Bulgaria
Stefka Blazheva
Population
At the end of 2005, the population of Bulgaria was 7 718 750 of whom 70.2 % lived in urban areas.
The population data as of 31.12.2005 were calculated on the basis of the population of the previous
year updated with the natural increase of the population in 2005. Compared with 2004 the annual
population has decreased by 42 299 or 0.5 % due to the negative natural movement which is a result of
the higher number of deaths than births. External migration is not covered by the current demographic
statistics yet.
The gradual ageing of the population has continued. During the period 1998-2005 the percentage of
people aged 65 and over increased from 15.9 % to 17.2 %. In the age pyramid the proportion of people
aged 60 and over is slowly increasing. In 2005 this proportion was 23.0 %, compared to 21.7 % in
1998. Meanwhile, the percentage of young people under 20 dropped to 20.2 % in 2005 compared to
23.3 % in 1998 and 26.5 % in 1992. The process of ageing of the population is more pronounced in
the countryside where the percentage of elderly persons (65 and over) was 25.6 % in 2005.
The negative natural increase of the population, which started in the early 1990s (-0.4 ‰), continued
in 2005 with a decrease of 42 299 people or -5.4 ‰. There was a continuous increase of the negative
values until 1997 when was the biggest natural decrease of the population –7.0 ‰. Over the next two
years there was evidence of a slow-down. Compared to the decrease in 1999 (-4.8 ‰), there was a
little rise of the negative values during the period 2000-2002 up to –5.8 ‰ followed by slight drop to
–5.7 ‰. The negative population development in the last 16 years is due to a low fertility level and
an extremely high mortality.
Fertility
There were 71 075 live births in Bulgaria in 2005, about 1 189 more than in 2004. The number of live
births reached its lowest level, about 64-65 thousand, during the period 1997-1998. In 2005 the crude
birth rate was 9.2 ‰, compared to 9.0 ‰ in 2004 and 7.9 ‰ in 1998.
The substantial increase in the proportion of births outside marriage in recent years continued in
2005. 49.1 % of births in 2005 were conceived outside marriage compared to 48.8 % in 2004. This
represents an increase of about 17.6 % compared to 1998. The proportion of births outside marriage
reflects the emergence of new family patterns such as consensual unions. This is confirmed indirectly
comparing the average age of mother at birth of first child (24.8 years) with the average age of
women at first marriage (25.8 years). Thus, the increase of births outside marriage is not necessarily
synonymous with children being born outside of some type of family union.
72
There was a considerable decrease of the total fertility rate in the past years from 1.81 in 1990 to
1.24 in 1996 and 1.09 in 1997. After the little increase of its level in 2000 (1.27), in 2003 the total
fertility rate returned to the same level as in 1999 and 1995 - 1.23. In 2005 was the peak of 1.31 for
this fertility indicator during the last decade. However, this value is far from the rate of two children
for ensuring even simple family reproduction.
In 2005 a concentration of births was recorded among women aged 20-29 years (around 61.2 %
of total live births), thus leading to the conclusion that the decrease in the number of live births is
rather a result of avoiding or postponing the birth, especially third and higher order. The births are
concentrated primarily on first and second births, which represent approximately 88.8 % of all live
births. In practice, the birth of a fourth, or even a third child is very rare in Bulgaria today.The average
age of women giving birth in 2005 was 26.2 years and 24.8 years at the birth of a first child. These
two indicators, particularly the latter, seem to remain fairly stable over time.
Mortality
Mortality in Bulgaria has increased during the last decade, influenced by the changes in the age
structure and the population’s health.
In 2005 the number of deaths was 113 374, which was about 3 264 less than in 2004. The crude death
rate per 1000 inhabitants was 14.6 ‰. The mortality rate remains fairly stable over recent years but is
still at one of the highest levels in Europe.
Infant mortality has shown significant fluctuations in recent years. After attaining a high level of
16.9 ‰ in 1991, the infant mortality rate dropped to 14.8 ‰ in 1995 and rose to 17.5 ‰ in 1997,
which was the highest level for the last twenty years. In 2002 the infant mortality rate reached the
2000 level - 13.3‰, while in 2005 it dropped again after 2004 level of 11.6 ‰ and reached its lowest
value till now - 10.4 ‰. This was due to both - bigger number of live births and smaller number of
infant deaths compared to 2004.
Life expectancy at birth for the period 2003-2005 was 69.02 years for men and 76.34 years for
women.
Migration
There are no official statistics on international migration during the years between censuses (19922001) and after the last carried out on 1 March 2001. The Bulgarian population decreased by some
558 400 during the period between two last censuses. This decrease is due to the natural movement of
the population and external migration. The natural decrease for the period 1992-2001 was 336 500.
The net migration of the population for the same period could be estimated at 221 900 or 2.7 % of
the population. According to the census data during the same period 18 450 returned or entered the
country. Thus the emigration flow could be estimated at 240 300 or the country has lost some 30 000
people each year during the period between the two last censuses.
73
The number of marriages has dropped steadily, but this trend has become more intensive in the period
1990-2002 with a total decrease of about 30 000 or 50%, from 59 874 to 29 218. There was a slow
increase over the following two years. 33 501 marriages were registered in 2005 compared to 31 038
in 2004. This development has led to a fall of the crude marriage rate from 6.9 ‰ in 1990 to 4.0 ‰ in
2004 and a slight increase in 2005 to 4.3 ‰.
First marriages of both men and women constituted almost 84 % of all marriages in 1998 and this
proportion decreased gradually to 80 % in 2005.
The mean age at first marriage has increased in 2005 to 29.1 years for men and 25.8 years for women,
compared to 26.6 and 23.5 years in 1998 respectively.
In 2005 there were 14 676 divorces which represent about 438 divorces per 1000 marriages or
1.9 divorces per 1000 inhabitants.
The average duration of marriage was 14.1 years in 2005 and, compared to previous years, shows a
tendency towards an increase – 13.2 years in 2003 and 11.1 years in 1998. The trend for the duration
of marriage shows a decrease of 18 % in the relative share of divorces during the first ten years of
marriage in 2005 compared to 1998 – respectively from 53 % to 35 %.
74
Romania
Marcela Postelnicu
Population
On 1 January 2006, the Romanian population was 21 610 213, of which 10 535 140 were men and
11 075 073 were women. The population has decreased by around 0.2 % per annum over the last ten
years as a result of a natural decrease and external migration.
Both natural increase and net outward migration have contributed to the population decrease in the
last year, with natural increase contributing with -41 081 persons and net outward migration around
-7234 persons.
The population age structure is changing, reflecting past trends in annual births, and the fluctuation
in life expectancy and migration flows. The proportion of the population over the state retirement age
(currently 57 years for women and 62 years for men) rose from 18.8% in 2000 to 19.2 % in 2006. In
the last years, the population aged over 75 has increased steadily. In 2006, 1.2 million persons were
aged 75 or over, an increase of 239 131 compared with 2000. The proportion of the population under
15 years has continued to decrease from 18.5% in 2000 to 15.5% in 2006.
Fertility
In 2005 there were 221 020 births, 4759 more than in 2004. The specific crude birth rate of young
women (under 20 years) decreased. Nevertheless, mothers in this age group gave birth to one-third of
all children born outside marriage. Most of the newborns had mothers aged 25-29 years.
In 2005, the mean-age of women at first birth was 24.9 years, 0.3 years more than in 2004. Mean-age
at childbirth was 26.7 years, 0.3 years more than in 2004. The fertility rate, 39.4 live births per 1000
women (aged 15-49 years) increased.
Mortality
262 101 deaths were registered in 2005, 3211 more than in 2004. The crude death rate decreased from
11.9‰ in 2004 to 12.1‰ in 2005. Mortality is still at a high level in the European context.
Almost 84% of registered deaths of young people (up to 15 years) took place during the first four
years of life, and over 70 % of them during the first year of life. The share of deaths of those aged
65 and over was almost two-thirds of the total number of deaths. The phenomenon of “male overmortality” is present in all age groups. Men’s crude death rate in the age group 20-70 is more than
twice as high as for women. Mean-age at death for men is 7.3 years lower than for women.
75
In the last decade, the most frequent causes of death were diseases of circulatory system (20.8%
ischemic diseases and 21.3% cerebral-vascular diseases) and neoplasm which together accounted
for 79.3 % of the total number of deaths (same percent as previous year). The increase in deaths
due to these diseases is the primary reason for the increase in mortality since 1990. Other cause
of death that increased during the 1990’s was diseases of the digestive system up by 26 %. On the
positive side, in 2005 deaths due to diseases of the respiratory system fell (both in total and by gender)
by 40 %. Men die more often from ischemic disease, neoplasm, tuberculosis, traumatic lesions and
poisonings, infectious and parasitic diseases, and mental and behaviour disorders. Female mortality
rates exceeded male mortality rates in diseases of the circulatory system (especially cerebral-vascular
diseases), endocrine, nutrition and metabolism diseases.
For the period 2003-2005, life expectancy at birth was 71.76 years. Women’s life expectancy
exceeded men’s by 7.32 years, which is less than in the previous period. During 2003-2005, life
expectancy increased slightly for both sexes. Some variation in men’s survival probabilities for those
aged 40 and over could be attributed to stress, standard of living, work-place security, unhealthy food,
environmental pollution, alcohol and tobacco consumption.
Migration
Triggered by the political and social reforms of 1989, the removal of restrictive regulations concerning
free circulation between countries resulted in a peak in international migration in 1990. Between 1992
and 2005, emigration decreased. However, net migration, although falling, was negative prior to
2000. Accordingly, the net migration rate fell from -1.29 ‰ in 1992 to -0.33 ‰ in 2005. Most of the
legal emigrants were highly trained and qualified people.
With a marriage rate of 6.6‰ Romania still has a high marriage rate compared to other European
countries where rates of 4-5 ‰ are common.
In 2005, the number of first marriage decrease compared to the previous year. Young people continue
to postpone marriage and consensual unions are becoming more frequent. The percentage of single
people increased amongst the younger age groups.
Men tend to marry later than women. Mean-age at marriage has increased and in 2005 it reached 30.7
years for men and 27.1 years for women. Mean-age at first marriage was 28.5 years for men and 25.2
years for women.
In 2005, 33 193 divorces were registered, or 1.54 divorces per 1000 inhabitants, a decrease compared
to 2004. The divorce rate level, which is relatively low compared with other European countries,
indicates a relative stability of the family in Romanian society. The social and economic changes in
the last couple of years have not influenced this demographic phenomenon in any significant way.
76
Young generations tend to divorce faster. Compared to 1990, most of the young age groups registered
an increased divorce rate, especially among those under 20. As in previous years, the highest frequency
of divorces was recorded among men aged 30-39 and women aged 25-29. About 93% of the total
numbers of divorces were first divorces.
The mean-age at divorce was 38.9 years for men and 35.4 years for women, slightly up compared
to the previous years. For childless marriages, the highest frequency of divorces was registered after
1 year of marriage, and, for couples with one child, after 6 years of marriage. Infidelity remained the
main cause of divorce (11.7%), followed by alcoholism (7.5 %) and physical violence (6.8 %). Men
were four times more likely to cause divorce as compared to women.
The last projection was carried out in September 2005 by the National Institute of Statistics “Projection
of population by area during the period 2005-2025” (constant variant). It is expected that during the
period 2005-2025 the population will decrease by about 2.1 million. The fall will be moderate up to
2010 with a negative average yearly rate of 1.8 ‰ and after this time it will accelerate. The difference
in the proportion of men and women will increase slightly: in 2025 women will represent 51.4 % of
the population, compared with 51.2 % in 2005. For both sexes, the most significant fall will be in the
10-24 age groups. The 35-60 age groups will grow slightly. The ageing of the population will continue
and become more pronounced over time. As a result of a lower dependency ratio of young people,
the demographic dependency ratio will increase from 43.6 % (2005) to 45.2 % (2025). The social
and economic effects of the ageing process will become visible after 2005 when the population in the
working age groups (15-49 years) will start to include the much smaller generations, born after 1990.
77
Croatia
Ivana Buršić
Population
According to 2005 mid-year estimate Croatia had about 4 441 900 inhabitants (48.1 % men and
51.9 % women). The average age of population is constantly increasing and in 2005 it reached 40.3,
i.e. 38.5 for men and 42.0 for women.
The share of the population aged 0-14 was 15.9 % in 2005. At the same time the share of the population
aged 65 and over was 16.8 %.
The population density is 78.5 inhabitants per square kilometre.
Analysing the marital status of population over 15 in 2001, there were 26.7 % single, 58.7 % married,
11.1 % widowed and 3.5 % divorced.
According to 2001 Census there were 1 477 377 private households, the average number of persons
per household was 3.0. The share of single households and 2-persons households has been constantly
increasing.
Fertility
In 2005 there were 42 492 live births. The live birth rate was 9.6 and the total fertility rate was 1.42,
well below replacement level.
The vital index (live births per 100 deaths) in 2005 was 82.0.
The average age of a woman at the birth of her first child was 26.5 in 2005 and is slightly increasing.
First birth order amounts 46.2 %, second order 34.2 %, third order 13.4 % and the fourth and higher
birth orders 6.2 % of the total number of live births.
The children in Croatia are mainly born inside marriage (89.5 % in 2005).
Mortality
In 2005 there were 51 790 deaths and the mortality rate was 11.7. The infant mortality rate was 5.7
and the stillbirth rate 4.4. Analyses of infant mortality and stillbirths during a longer period show a
significant fall.
78
The most common causes of death in 2005 were diseases of the circulatory system (43.5 % of men
and 57.1 % of women) and neoplasms (28.8 % of men and 20.6 % of women).
Migration
In 2005 there were 14 230 immigrants, and 6 012 persons emigrated.
Net migration in 2005 was as positive (8 218 persons) as in previous years. However, this figure
cannot be considered fully reliable because of incomplete registration of emigrants.
The most intensive migration flows in 2005 are with Bosnia and Herzegovina (8 358 immigrants and
1 055 emigrants).
There were 22 138 marriages in 2005. The marriage rate per 1000 inhabitants was 5.0. The average
age at first marriage is constantly increasing. In 2005 it was 26.3 years for women and 29.3 years
for men. The proportion of remarriages of the total number of marriages was 8.8 % for men, and
8.4 % for women. The proportion of religious marriages was 64.9 % in 2005.
The number of divorces was 4 883 in 2005, which is 221 per 1000 marriages. The average duration
of a marriage ending in divorce was about 14 years.
79
The former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
Danica Mitkovska
Population
The last Census of the Population, households and dwellings was carried out on 31 October 2002.
According to the census data, the total population was 2 022 547 persons (1 015 377 male and
1 007 170 female). At the end of 2005 the population totalled 2 038514 persons which is an increase
of 0.16 %.
The age structure at the end of 2005 showed that 19.44 % of the total population is aged under
15; 69.41 % aged 15-64; 11.14 % aged over 65 and 0.04 % of unknown age. The average age is 35.9
years and the life expectancy is 73.62 years for men and women.
Since 2004, the State Statistical Office presents data in accordance with the methodological changes
in the presentation of vital statistical data. This data for the period 1994 to 2005 is presented in the
following table:
Year
Livebirths
Deaths
Natural
increase
Marriages
Divorces
1994
31 421
15 649
15 772
15 736
612
1995
29 886
16 169
13 717
15 823
710
1996
28 946
15 882
13 064
14 089
705
1997
26 830
16 373
10 457
14 072
1 021
1998
26 639
16 628
10 011
13 993
1 027
1999
24 964
16 622
8 342
14 172
1 045
2000
26 168
17 085
9 083
14 255
1 325
2001
24 183
16 790
7 393
13 267
1 448
2002
24 154
17 866
6 288
14 522
1 310
2003
23 596
17 813
5 783
14 402
1 405
2004
23 361
17 944
5 417
14 073
1 645
2005
22 482
18 406
4 076
14 500
1 552
80
Fertility
In 2005 the number of live births was 22 482 which is 879 (3.8 %) less than in 2004.
The total number of births outside marriage continued to rise. In 2005 it was 12.4 % of the total live
birth compared with 12.3 % in 2004.
The structure of live births by age of the mother shows that 35.7 % of live births were born to mothers
aged 25-29. The percentage of live births born to mothers aged 20-24 was 29.5 % while the percentage
of those born to mothers aged 15-19 years 7.7 %.
The mean age of women at childbirth continued to rise and reached 27.0 years in 2005 while the mean
age at first birth was 25.0 years.
The TFR in 2005 was 1.46 and was calculated based on live births in the country.
Mortality
The number of deaths in 2005 was 18 406 which is 462 (2.6%) more than in 2004. In 2005, 287
children died before they reached their first birthday. The infant mortality rate was 12.8 ‰.
The main causes of death in 2004 were circulatory diseases (58.4 %), neoplasms (17.5 %) and
undefined symptoms, signs and conditions (7.3 %).
Migration
Net migration in 2005 was as positive (191 persons) as in previous years. However, this figure cannot
be considered fully reliable because of incomplete registration of emigrants. The highest net migration
in 2003 was from foreigner’s citizens of Serbia and Montenegro (518), followed by Albania (265),
while the lowest net migration of foreign citizens was registered among citizens of Italy (-249).
The majority of immigrants (91.96%) came from European countries: 518 (34.98 %) from Serbia and
Montenegro, 265 (17.89 %) from Albania, etc.
The total number of emigrants has changed considerably during the years. The total number of
emigrants in 2005 was 1300. The majority of emigrants also went to European countries.
The data for asylum seekers and refugees are not included.
The number of marriages in 2005 was 14 500 which is 427 (3.0 %) more than in 2004.
81
The number of divorces was 1 552 which is 93 (5.7 %) less than in 2004. There were 107.0 divorces
per 1000 marriages which is 9.9 less than in 2004.
In 2005 age at first marriage continued to rise; the mean age at which women contracted their first
marriage was 24.5 years and men 27.6.
82
Turkey
Population
According to the latest census the population of Turkey totalled 67.8 million in 2000, with an annual
rate of growth of 1.83% for the 1990-2000 period. The population growth rate peaked at 2.8%
per year in the 1950s and then declined rapidly after 1970. The forecasts suggest that the rate will
continue to decline slightly. According to national estimates, the population of Turkey in the middle
of 2004 was 71.2 million, comprising 35.9 million males and 35.3 million females.
In structural terms the population is quite young. In 2004 children (aged 0-14) accounted for 28.8%
of the population, with people of 65 or over accounting for 5.7%.
Fertility
There was a marked increase in total fertility rate between 1923 and 1950, with the figure rising from
5.5 to 7.0 children per woman. A downward trend began in the 1950s and is still continuing. There
was a very large reduction between 1970 and 1990, when total fertility rate fell from around 5.6 to
2.65, a reduction of 53%. The 2000 census revealed a total fertility rate of 2.53 children per woman.
Since then the figure has slightly declined even more, with 2004 estimates indicating a total fertility
rate of 2.21. The number of live births was estimated at 1 360 000 in 2004 and the average age of
mothers giving birth was 27.1.
Mortality
The infant mortality rate has steadily declined, apart from a temporary reversal in the trend during the
Second World War. The rate stood at close to 250 deaths per 1000 births in the 1950s but by 2000 it
had gone down to 43‰. According to estimates, the infant mortality rate was close to 24.6 per 1000
births in 2004. This trend, which was particularly marked in the 1980s, is generally attributed to a
decline in the fertility rate, better living conditions, more educated and better informed mothers and
the existence of health services and vaccination campaigns. The reduction in the mortality rates of
infants and young children has contributed significantly to greater life expectancy at birth. In 2004 the
figures for men and women were 68.8 and 73.6 respectively.
Migration
For most of the latter half of the 20th century Turkey was a land of emigrants, with Germany and
other countries of western Europe the main destination. Towards 1980, however, immigration and
transit traffic began to gain in significance, and illegal immigration and inflows of refugees began to
give rise to increasing concern. The HCR estimates that about two million refugees entered Turkey
in the 1980s and 1990s, coming mainly from Iran, Iraq and Bulgaria. According to the International
Organisation for Migration, many migrants arrived in transit from Africa and Asia in the 1990s. It
83
is useful to distinguish between the different types of international migration: return migration and
emigration by Turks (resulting especially in the loss of skilled labour) and immigration and emigration
of foreigners, including illegal and transit migration.
Information on population figures comes mainly from censuses and records of residence and work
permits. There are no data on international migration flows or on emigration. Available figures on
emigration are limited to data on Turkish nationals living abroad and are collected by the Ministry of
Labour and Social Security.
The number of marriages increased steadily between 1994 and 2003 and rose from 462 415 to 477 451.
The crude marriage rate fell, however from 7.63‰ in 1994 to 6.80‰ in 2003. There was a general
downward trend during the decade, albeit with some fluctuations.
The number of divorces has increased in recent years: 50 108 in 2003 compared with 28 041 in 1994.
The crude divorce rate is also rising and went up from 0.46‰ to 0.71‰ between 1994 and 2003.
There was a general upward trend during the decade, albeit with some fluctuations.
Foreign population
The main information about the size of the foreign population comes from censuses and residence
permit records. Censuses were held every five years until 1990 but have been ten-yearly since then.
Both the 1990 and 2000 censuses contained questions on nationality, country of origin and main place
of residence at the time of the census and five years earlier. According to the 2000 census foreign
nationals totalled 267 441, or 0.39% of the total population. The number of persons born abroad
totalled 1 260 530 (1.86%).
Population forecasts
National population forecasts are produced on the basis of the current demographic structure and
future hypotheses. In an attempt to know how the population of the country will evolve, a a method
based on components is used. A calculation is made for each cohort born over a five-year period, i.e.
in five-year age groups. The components are births, deaths and migration. Forecasts are made for fiveyear periods, with each period calculated separately from the previous period. The hypotheses for the
components are constant throughout each five-year cycle.
The method is applied using IBM-PC compatible software entitled FIVFIV, an abbreviation indicating
that the forecasts are compiled for five-year periods.
In order to arrive at population estimates for different territorial units, a distribution method is used. This
is a mathematical process which involves distributing among the territorial units (such as provinces or
cities) the growth in the country’s population since the last census. The method uses the growth rate.
84
The latest population forecasts have been revised in the light of the 2000 census and the results of the
2003 population and health survey. There are forecasts by gender and age (year) up to 75 and over,
and they go as far as 2050. The total fertility indicator is expected to decline from 2.21 in 2004 to
1.79 in 2050 and remain steady thereafter. Mortality is also expected to decline and will thus push up
life expectancy at birth, which by 2050 should reach 74.3 for men and 80.4 for women. Net migration
is expected to be zero between 2000 and 2050. In the light of these assumptions, the population of
Turkey will continue to grow, increasing from 71.2 million in 2004 to 97 million in 2050. The number
of old people will also increase. According to the new forecasts, the percentage of people aged 65 or
over will rise from 5.7% in 2004 to 17.6% in 2050, whereas over the same period the percentage of
young people under 15 will go down from 28.8% to 17.7%. As for the active population, i.e. those
aged 15-64, there will be a slight decrease from 65.4% in 2004 to 64.7% in 2050.
85
Liechtenstein
Christian Brunhart
Population
At the end of 2005 the permanent resident population was 34 905. This represents an increase of 305
persons or 0.9%; compared to an increase of 306 persons or 0.9% in the previous year. The number
of foreigners living in Liechtenstein on 31 December 2005 was 11 917 persons or 34.1% of the
population. The proportion of foreigners from German speaking countries was 57.4% of all foreign
residents: 30.4% of the foreigners living in Liechtenstein are Swiss, 17.2% Austrian, and 9.9% German
nationals. Residents from Italy contributed 10.1%, followed by Turkey with 7.5%, and Portugal with
4.8%. Altogether there were currently 91 different nationalities living in Liechtenstein.
The proportion of children and adolescents (under 20 years) has decreased from 25.5% in 1995 to
23.5% in 2005. On December 31, 2005 the number of people under 20 years was 8 171 compared
to 7 889 in 1995. The working-age population (ages 20 - 64) increased from 19 846 (64.2% of the
permanent resident population) in 1995 to 22 699 in 2005 (65.0%). The number of retired people
(age 65 and older) was 4035 or 11.6% of the permanent resident population. In 1995 there were 3 188
retired persons (10.3%).
Fertility
The number of births in 2005 was 381, compared to 372 in 2004 and 347 in 2003. Since 1999 the
number births decreased continuously from 430 to 381, except in 2004, an increase was registered.
The total fertility rate was 1.51 in 2005 and 1.46 births per woman in 2004. In 2005, 48.3% of the
mothers had the Liechtenstein citizenship.
The number of births outside marriage was 18.9% in 2005 and 17.2% in the previous year.
Mortality
The total number of deaths was 215 in 2005 and 198 in the previous year. 46% of those who died in
2005 were 80 years or older. About 63% of the persons who died in this age group were women.
Naturalisation
In 2005, 159 foreigners obtained Liechtenstein citizenship compared to 174 in 2004, 182 in 2003, 202
in 2002, 397 in 2001, 117 in 2000, 156 in 1999, 196 in 1998 and 1129 in 1997. The total for this nine
year period is 2 712 persons or 22.8% of the actual foreign population. The relatively high number
86
of naturalisations in the years 1997 and 2001 reflects modifications made to the naturalisation law in
1996 and 2000. Most of the new citizens have either a Liechtenstein mother or have been living in
Liechtenstein for many years. Many of the new citizens were born in Liechtenstein.
Marriage statistics may vary depending on which marriages are counted (either one or both parties
must be resident). In a small country like Liechtenstein it is better to have a statistic on the permanent
resident persons who married.
In 2005 (2004) 188 (164) permanent resident men and 163 (175) women married. This results in 259
(241) marriages (one or two parties living in Liechtenstein). The average age of the men for the first
marriage in 2005 was 32.7 (31.4) and for women 30.5 (29.9) years.
In 2005 (2004) 93 (101) permanent resident men and 83 (105) women divorced. The number of
divorces with at least one partner living in Liechtenstein was 97 in 2005 and 115 in 2004. The average
age at divorce was 44.2 (43.3) for men and 41.9 (40.2) for women. (2005: preliminary data)
There were no major government decisions or legislation pertaining to population policy issues during
2004 and 2005.
87
Norway
Paul Inge Severeide
Population
Norway had a population of 4 640 219 at 1st January 2006. The population increased by 33 856
persons during 2005, or 0.7 %.
At the end of 2005, 49 % of the population had never been married (53 % men and 46 % women),
36 % were married, and 6 % were widowed with 4.2 times as many widows as widowers.
Fertility
56 756 children were born in 2005, 195 less than the year before. The total fertility rate (TFR) was
1.84 children per woman. The total fertility rate estimates how many children each woman on average
will give birth to, as long as the level of births remains the same as that for 2005 throughout the
reproductive age. The fertility rate has been relatively stable since the late 1980s. In 2005, the average
age of first-time mothers was 28.1 years. With 124.4 children per 1000 women, women aged 25-29
had the highest fertility rate. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly common for women
to give birth in their thirties. The fertility rate for women aged 30-34 was 118.6 per 1000 women, and
48.6 per 1000 women aged 35-39.
The proportion of men without children was higher than the proportion of women without children in
2005. Among 40-year-old women 12.6 % did not have children. For men this figure was 22.7 %. At
the age of 45 the difference in childlessness was smaller, as 11.9 % of women and 19.1 % of all men
did not have any children at this age.
In the past twenty years the proportion of people without children has increased steadily - for both
women and men. Nevertheless, the increase for men has been more than twice as high as for women.
Since 1985, the proportion of childless people has risen by 2.4 % for women and 5.2 % for men.
Mortality
In 2005, 41 232 people died, 20 113 men and 21 119 women. This is approximately 32 more than
in 2004. More women than men died, but this is due to the population’s age composition, with more
elderly women than men. 78 % of those who died were 70 years or older. The mortality of elderly
people continued to decline, and in 2005 life expectancy for people aged 70 increased by 0.0 years
for men and 0.2 years for women.
88
Life expectancy is continuing to rise sharply. In the last six years, it has increased by 2.1 years for men
and 1.4 years for women. The difference in life expectancy between men and women decreased to 4.8
years in 2005, compared with 6.0 years in 1995. This may be related to more similar living conditions
for men and women, especially with regard to smoking habits. The average life expectancy in Western
Europe is 75 years for men and 81 years for women.
Migration
In 2005, 40 148 people immigrated into Norway while 21 709 emigrated. The net immigration of
18 439 is higher by 5 228 than in the previous year.
In 2005 the net immigration of citizens from the new EU member countries was 3 883. This was an
increase of more than 91 % compared with 2004. Both a considerably higher amount of immigration
and a low amount of emigration contributed to this increase.
Polish, Russian, and Iraqi citizens had the highest net immigration with 2893, 1188 and 1182
respectively. One explanation for this phenomenon is an increase in Polish immigrants to the
Norwegian labour market. Refugees from Chechnya with Russian citizenship also contribute to the
high figures for Russians.
Net emigration of Norwegian citizens was almost -300, the lowest since 1993. The number of
immigrations was a little higher than the previous year and emigrations were lower than for many
years. 8 800 Norwegian citizens moved back to Norway, while 9 100 left. The figures for emigrations
have not been as low since 1993.
Nearly five in ten Norwegians who left the country moved either to Sweden, Denmark, Great Britain,
Spain or the USA.
There were 22 392 marriages in Norway in 2005 and 11 040 marriages were dissolved by divorce. In
addition there were 12 758 separations. The number of marriages is almost the same as 2004. Over
the last decade, the number of marriages has varied between 21 000 to 25 400 a year. An increasing
number of couples get married abroad, and in 2005 this figure was 17 %.
The average age at first marriage for women and men was 30.4 years and 33.2 years respectively in
2005. The average age has increased over the years - ten years ago the bride and groom were 2.8 and
3.2 years younger respectively.
Over the past few decades people have tended to marry later in life. The proportion of first marriages
between two partners under 30 years of age continued to fall in 2005. The marriage rates for first
marriages are still highest for men aged 30-34 and women aged 25-29.
89
The number of divorces and separations granted in 2005 were 11 040 and 12 758 respectively, a
little lower than in 2004. The number of divorces corresponds to 12.6 divorced per 1000 married and
separated. In comparison, the corresponding figures were 11.5 in the first half of the 1990s and 7.8 in
the first half of the 1980s.
The majority of divorced men are aged 35-39 years, and in this group the divorce rate is 23.5. The
majority of divorced women are equal between the ages 30-34 and 35-39, and in these groups the
divorce rate was 23.1 respectively.
Statistics Norway’s new population projection shows a more rapid increase in the future number of
elderly than previously projected. The number of persons 67 years and older will double from 2005
until 2060. The new projections show that the number of persons over 90 will grow substantially from
30 000 in 2005 to 138 000 in 2060.
It is expected that the population will continue to grow slowly over the next 50 years, from 4.6 million
in 2005 to between 4.9 and 5.8 million in 2030. The population in 2060 is expected to reach between
4.9 and 7.5 million.
There were no major government decisions or legislation pertaining to population policy issues during
2005.
90
Switzerland
Céline Schmid
Population
At the end of 2005 the population of Switzerland comprised 7 459 100 permanent residents, including
1 541 900 foreigners. Allowing for statistical discrepancies, this indicated an increase of 44 000
compared with 2004, i.e. a growth rate of 0.6%, one-tenth of point lower than the previous year. One
reason for the increase in the total resident population was that births outnumbered deaths by 11 800,
while there was also a migration surplus of 36 200. Immigration thus continues to be the main factor
in population growth in the country, although in comparison with the previous year the number of
foreign immigrants declined slightly in 2005 (-1.7%).
The population continued to age in spite of the slight growth in recent years. Between 1990 and 2005
the percentage of people of 65 or over went up from 14.6% to 16.0%. Over the same period the
percentage of young people under 20 fell slightly from 23.5% to 22.0%, as did the percentage of those
aged 20-39 (from 31.2% to 27.4%).
The ratio between people of 65 or over and those aged 20-64 continues to grow (20% in 1970, 23.5%
in 1990 and 25.7% in 2005), whereas the ratio between those under 20 and those aged 20-64 has
stabilised since 1990 at between 35% and 38% after a period of steady decline. The figure in 1970
had been 53.9%. Longer life expectancy and lower fertility are the main factors contributing to the
ageing of the population, and this trend will be more marked in coming years when the large numbers
of those born during the baby-boom years of the 1960s will move into older age groups.
Fertility
In 2005 there were 72 900 live births, 200 fewer than in 2004. The downward trend has been evident
since 1994, apart from three years (1996, 2000 and 2004) when there was a slight increase. In 2000
the increase was the result of the millennium effect, since some parents wanted to have a child in
that year.
The total fertility rate, which indicates the average number of children per woman aged
15-49 resident in the country, followed the same pattern as the birth rate in the 1990s. In 1990 the
figure was 1.59 children per woman but this had fallen to 1.48 by 1999. As a result of the noticeable
increase in the number of births in 2000 the total fertility rate also increased slightly to 1.5 children
per woman. The figure then fell again in 2005, to 1.42.
The percentage figures referring to different age groups in the population were calculated in relation to the total
number of permanent residents in the year in question.
91
If women are considered according to nationality, fairly significant differences emerge with regard to
fertility. In 2005, in fact, a Swiss woman had on average 1.27 children, whereas the average figure for
a foreign woman was 1.86. In 1990 the figures had been 1.55 for Swiss women and 1.67 in the case
of foreign women. The fertility rate of Swiss women thus declined sharply during the 1990s, while
the rate in the case of foreign women went up.
Mortality
In 2005 there were 61 100 deaths: 29 700 men and 31 400 women. This figure revealed a slight
increase in the number of deaths in the country, as 60 200 deaths had been recorded in 2004.
In 1990 the estimated life expectancy for men was 74 years and for women 80.8. By 2005 these
figures had increased to 78.7 and 83.9 respectively. Although the trend is more or less identical for
both sexes, the life expectancy gap between men and women is narrowing every year. In 1990 women
tended to live 6.7 years longer than men, but by 2005 the gap was down to 5.2 years.
The number of children who died in the first year of life went up slightly in 2005, when 283 instances
were recorded compared with 274 in 2004. The infant mortality rate has nevertheless remained very
low for several years. In 2005 fewer than four children out of every 1000 live births died before their
first birthday.
Migration
International migration of Swiss nationals
Compared with 2004, slightly fewer Swiss citizens (19 200) returned to the country whereas a greater
number emigrated (27 700). The migration surplus thus increased from 7 400 to 8 500. Men and
women are equally represented in these migration flows (51.5% male and 48.5% female). In addition,
more than half of the Swiss leaving or returning to the country are aged 20-39.
International migration of foreigners
The immigration of foreigners is governed by legislation on foreigners and the right of asylum. It is
also limited by Federal Council policy aimed at stabilising the number of foreigners in Switzerland
and facilitating their integration. Since the agreement between Switzerland and the European Union
on the free movement of persons took effect on 1 June 2002, Switzerland has stood out for the number
of authorisations for EU-25/EFTA citizens and other nationalities. Annual variations in the number of
immigrants and emigrants are, to a large extent, influenced by the situation of the labour market.
Since 1979 the number of those entering Switzerland with residence permits or establishment permits
(which allow greater residence rights) or as officials of international organisations has exceeded the
number of those leaving. In 2005 the migration balance in the case of foreigners was lower than the
year before. In 2005 the figure was 44 700, compared with 47 900 in 2004.
92
Apart from the movements of foreigners among the permanently resident population, account must
also be taken of the movements of those with short-term residence permits, asylum seekers and crossborder workers. The number of people granted a short-term residence permit (less than 12 months)
continued to rise, with 65 200 people getting permits in 2005 compared with 59 400 in 2004 and
58 100 in 2003.
The number of asylum seekers (cases being considered, provisional admissions and expulsions blocked
for technical reasons) had gone up in 1999 (107 000) but declined sharply in 2005 in comparison with
the two previous years. After 64 600 applications in 2003 and 55 100 in 2004, there were only 48 200
in 2005. As for cross-border workers, they increased from 185 500 in 2004 to 201 700 in 2005.
There was a slight increase in the number of marriages, which rose from 39 500 in 2004 to 40 100
in 2005. The increase in the divorce rate has meant that the number of divorced people remarrying
has risen faster than number of those marrying for the first time. While there were 26 300 marriages
between people marrying for the first time in 2005, there were also 13 800 remarriages (34.3% of all
marriages) in which at least one of the partners was divorced or widowed.
The total marriage indicator, which shows marriage rates, declined in 2005. According to the indicator,
63% of unmarried women below 50 should be married one day, provided that the rate recorded in 2005
remains unchanged in the coming years. In the case of men under 50, the figure for 2005 was 59%.
There has been a marked rise in the age of marrying since 1990. In that year, in fact, a woman tended
to marry at the age of 26.7 but this had increased to 28.7 by 2005. In the case of men, the figure went
up from 29.1 in 1990 to 31.0 in 2005. This shows that on average men and women are entering firsttime marriages two years later than they did ten years earlier.
The number of divorces went up by 18.8% in 2005, increasing from 17 900 the year before to 21 300.
This trend, which was more marked than in 2004, matched the level recorded in 1999 before the
new law on divorce was introduced on 1 January 2000. In absolute terms, the type of divorce which
increased most was divorce by mutual consent: up from 16 600 in 2004 to 19 100 in 2005. There was
also a significant increase in the number of divorces in which only one party initiated proceedings,
with the number of cases rising from 646 in 2004 to 1 316 in 2005. This trend was partly due to the
change in divorce law which took effect on 1 June 2004, when the waiting time for filing a unilateral
request for divorce was reduced from four to two years. This meant that requests filed in 2002 and
2003 could be dealt with and divorce judgments announced in 2005.
Since 1 January 2001 the figures include any marriage in which at least one of the partners (male or female) was permanently domiciled in Switzerland before the marriage.
93

Demographic Outlook

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