Climate Change and Challenges for the Urban Development of Ho

Climate Change and Challenges for the Urban
Development of Ho Chi Minh City / Vietnam
Ronald Eckert & Michael Waibel
The latest reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and different other scientific
sources confirm that climate change is no longer a “distant possibility but a current reality” (World Bank 2008).
Although Vietnam has only played a tiny part in creating the problems of global environmental change, it
is among the countries most seriously affected by this threatening development (Waibel 2008). Already in
the past decades, a significant rise in weather extremes such as tropical typhoons and flooding events as a
­consequence of climate change has been observed there.
Climate change and urban development
are closely interlinked and often interact
negatively (Wamsler 2008: 96).
In this paper, the authors analyze sector- and spatial-level-specific dangers
of climate change for the most prosperous city and first mega-urban region of
Viet-nam Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC).
­Thereby, a dual-track approach to dealing
with climate impacts will be proposed
consisting of adaptation and mitigation.
Impacts of climate change
Vietnam is extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts, mainly because of
its topography. The overwhelming part
of the Vietnamese population and most
of its economic activities are concentrated in the low elevated coastal zones
along the more than 3,000 km of coastline. The two densely-populated main
delta regions of the Red River and the
Mekong are particularly affected. There,
according to IPCC (2007: 59) a 1-meter
sea level rise (SLR) would lead to a flooding of up to 20,000 km2 of Mekong River delta (see map) and 5,000 km2 of the
Red River delta (Waibel 2008). The metropoles of Hanoi and HCMC, being situated within the delta regions, will not
only be endangered by SLR itself, but
may also experience a massive migration pressure of climate change refugees
from the surrounding areas. Nguyen
Duc Ngu, former general director of
the Viet Nam Meteorology and Hydrology Centre, predicts an average SLR in
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Vietnam of 35 cm by 2050, of 50 cm by
2070, and of 100 cm by 2100 ­(Vietnam
News, 26.05.2008). With a forecast SLR
of 1 m and over 11 % of urban areas,
around 10 % of the population and 10
% of the gross domestic product will
be affected by flooding (World Bank
2007: 18). The SLR adds to the danger
of flood-tides, which in HCMC have already reached a height of 1.47 m (2006)
and most recently in November 2008
even a height of 1.54 m (Thanh Nien
Daily News, 15.11.2008). A SLR of just
50 cm, added to a flood-tide of about
1.50 m, makes a temporary rise of water
level of +2.00 m. This would lead to a
flooding of 300 km2 of HCMC, with 2
mill. inhabitants. The flooding events in
the recent past have already placed severe strains on the metropolis, e.g. in the
case of traffic (see photos above).
Climate change, and especially SLR,
threaten the general spatial urban development path of HCMC. It could result
in a totally new dynamic in the progress
of the settlement structures in the medium to long run, simply because large
parts of the city areas will become unfit
for human habitation. The current system of planning, guiding, and implementing urban development is not prepared
for this tremendous challenge at all.
A further challenge related to climate
change is the “Urban Heat Island (UHI)
Effect”, which is clearly noticeable in the
densely built inner city districts. Even today, the temperature in these areas is up
to 10 degrees above the average temperature of the surrounding districts. This
increases the energy demand for cooling
and also puts a lot of stress on the human health and comfort of the local population, especially the elderly and the
young people.
UHIs can be largely blamed for deficiencies in urban planning that have led to insufficient ventilation, lack of green spaces,
augmented use of air-conditioning, and a
strongly increased traffic volume.
In general, the metropolis of HCMC
has witnessed a disproportionate rise of
urban energy consumption due to the
successful implementation of a strategy
of export-led industrialization, suburbanization processes and rising living standards as well as more resource-intensive
lifestyles of the urban population.
Current urban development
Apart from the horror scenarios of climate change, the urban planning authorities in Ho Chi Minh City are already
now overburdened with the problems
that are typical of mega-cities in developing countries all over the world. The
metropolis is suffering from environmental degradation, air and water pollution, insufficient governmental capacities
to cope with the fast growth, migration
pressure (about 200,000 migrants move
in every year), and increasing socio-spatial fragmentation (Waibel 2009). The
latter is further promoted by the increasing inclusion of non-state actors in ur-
Pacific News Nr. 31 • Januar/Februar 2009
ban development projects through public-private partnership models.
One example is the development of
Saigon South New Urban Area implemented by a joint venture enterprise of
a Taiwanese developer and a daughter
company of the People’s Committee of
HCMC. It is a functionally mixed urban
development covering 3,300 hectares.
For this showcase urban development
project, which exclusively targets the
nouveaux riches, vast wetland areas have
been transformed into urban fabric. In
this way, a large space that had previously
served to buffer water in times of flooding has disappeared. Less than 10 years
after the construction of the main development axis, the Saigon South Parkway
already had to be massively elevated due
to marshy underground and the danger
of flooding. Another showcase project,
the development of the new Central
Business District Thu Thiem on a lowrise peninsula opposite central District
1, suffered significant delays as result of
major modifications of the master plan
that became necessary after it became
obvious that the whole area is under
enormous threat of flooding.
All in all, urban development is dominated by single-sector and single-project
approaches, which reflects institutional
fragmentation. To combat the consequences of climate change, however,
cross-sector planning and comprehensive approaches are needed.
Mainstreaming Climate Change
Given the institutional constraints
in ­Vietnam, mainstreaming adequate
­responses to climate change into urban
development seems to be a big challenge.
Firstly, what is required is a well-founded
examination of the consequences for
­urban development as well as substantial
countermeasures on all levels of current
urban development planning, from the
level of the metropolitan region, the municipality, the urban district, the neighbourhood, and the building, down to the
level of the individual household.
Pictures from Flooding Events in HCMC
The foundations for climate change and in Hanoi.
adaptation are laid at the levels of the reSource: Vietnam News & Thanh Nien
gion and the city. The main aim of urban Daily News 2008
development must be the protection of
urban areas from flooding. Potential so- flooding and SLR (World Bank 2008).
lutions for adapting urban areas include
To prevent or minimize the phenoelevation of building sites by land filling mena of UHIs, a city-wide system of
or the construction of dikes. Due to the open spaces for adequate air ventilation
low elevated marshy lands and the fine- and for developing cold air generation
meshed network of canals in HCMC, areas has to be established. In this conthese measures bring with them im- text, the urban morphology, the orientamense technical challenges and will be tion of buildings, and the ratio of sealed
very cost-intensive. In the long run, the surfaces also play an important role
relocation of existing infrastructure and (TCPA 2007: 19). All these aspects have
settlements away from the worst affec- to be taken into account in the context
ted flood-prone areas will be inevitable.
of redevelopment measures of existing
The continuous demand for new buil- neighbourhoods, and particularly where
ding sites due to economic progress, sub- new neighbourhoods are being developed.
urbanization, and high migration flows
On the level of buildings, there is only
should be strictly limited to flood-safe little local knowledge on the construcareas from now on, which is almost im- tion of energy-efficient housing typolopossible to achieve. A first step would be gies, alternative technical solutions like
a precise evaluation of the local im-pacts solar cooling, and energy-saving behaof flooding and their spatial mani-fest- viour in the field of housing in general.
ation within the urban area of HCMC Promising approaches to promote ener(Eckert 2008). The current regional and gy-efficient housing would be to adopt
urban development concepts (Regional technical and constructional solutions
Development Plan 2020, Master Plan in terms of energy-efficiency, to sup2025) are addressing the problem of port local research efforts in this field,
continuous urban expansion into low- to raise awareness among the owners
lying marshland for the first time (PC of real estate, and to establish a whole
HCMC 2007: 2-20). However, no speci- range of policies measures that would
fic consequences
for the proposed
future development of HCMC
are drawn. The
master plan needs
additional statements designating
flood-safe areas
for future settlements as well as
areas with definite building prohibitions. Within
these zones where
construction is
banned, marshlands can be used Impact of 1 m SLR on Ho Chi Minh City and on the NE-Mekong River
as buffer against Delta. Source: ADB 2008
Pacific News Nr. 31 • Januar/Februar 2009
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Acknowledgement
The research project “Integrative Adaptation
­Planning Framework for Climate Change in the
Urban Environment of Ho Chi Minh City” is
­funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) within the research
programme ‘Energy- and climate-efficient structures in urban growth centers’ over a period of five
years (2008-2013).
Under the leadership of the Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus (BTU), a trans-disciplinary team of German and Vietnamese ­researchers,
including the Department of Economic Geography at the University of Hamburg, aims at the
­adaptation of the built environment of Ho Chi
Minh City to climate changes, with the goal of
minimizing or avoiding severe impacts of ­climate
change in the future.
More info: www.megacity-hcmc.org
serve to stimulate energy-efficiency on
the one hand, and would penalize energy
wastage, on the other hand. In terms of
energy-efficient housing, the individual
households are the main stakeholders.
In the best case, their behaviour would
be market-driven. That means that the
money saved through technical and constructional solutions exceeds the extra
costs incurred. These actions should be
supported by state policies and financial
drivers, as described above.
“Mitaptation” as a response
Adaptation measures certainly rank at the
top of the agenda due to the high vulnerability of HCMC. However, economic
success and the mostly uncon-trolled
urban growth have also made HCMC
the country’s main emitter of humaninduced greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, just adapting to the consequences of climate change is not sufficient.
In expanding mega-urban regions such
as HCMC, there are strategic potentials
to reduce the consumption of resources
and to lower emissions, for example by
the promotion of inner-city redevelopment prior to growth in outer areas. Furthermore, the rapidly emerging urban
middle classes that are only beginning to
adopt resource-intensive lifestyles could
become a key target group for increased
sustainability.
The implementation of a dual-track
approach consisting of both adaptation and mitigation measures seems
mandatory. This is especially true for a
highly dynamic urban economy such as
HCMC. In this context, Droege recommends a combination of adaptation and
avoidance strategies for urban growth
regions, which he labels as “mitigating
adaptation” or “mitaptation” (Droege
2006: 70).
By contrast, pursuing either of these
strategies on its own may result in conflicting aims for urban development.
For example, the scientific discourse
on adequate urban forms in developed
countries of temperate climate zones
recommends compact and dense settlement structures to meet the requirements for reduced land consumption.
This approach follows the classic model of the European City (Bauriedl et al.
2008). However, in tropical hot-humid
countries such as Vietnam and in the
context of global warming, the impacts
of the UHIs’ excessive temperatures on
densely built urban areas have to be taken into account. Therefore, a sensible
balance between compact settlement
structures and a linked network of wellirrigated open spaces to secure the infiltration of rain water is needed. This implies a coordinated application of both
mitigation and adaptation measures.
Conclusions
Dealing with climate change and increasing the adaptive capacity of the megaurban region of HCMC does not imply a need to reinvent the wheel. Many
policies can be derived simply from the
ongoing sustainable-city discourse. The
toolbox of sustainable city development
offers various solutions to promote the
concept of a compact city, for example.
However, the urgency of the threats of
climate change can be leveraged to develop specific sustainable city planning solutions and to promote new institutional
arrangements. In this respect, innovative
forms of governance coalitions could
serve as learning fields for reorganising
urban development agencies in a broader context and to overcome the biggest
problem of urban development in Vietnam: Institutional fragmentation.
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Ronald Eckert [[email protected]], Dipl.-Ing., is Research Associate at the Department of Urban
Planning and Spatial Design of the Brandenburg Technical University Cottbus.
Dr. Michael Waibel [[email protected]] is Senior Lecturer at the Department of Economic
­Geography of the University of Hamburg.
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Pacific News Nr. 31 • Januar/Februar 2009