PEDRO MIGUEL SOARES BRINCA

ROBERT SCHUMANN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE
CURRICULUM VITAE
PEDRO MIGUEL SOARES BRINCA
REFERENCES
Fl o dén , Mar ti n (s up er v is or ) – S we d i s h Ce n tra l Ba nk ( o n lea ve fr o m S t o ckh o lm U nive rs ity )
mar ti n. fl od e n @ne . su. se
Ag u iar - C onr ar ia , Lu is – Sc h o ol o f Ec o n om ics a nd Bus i ne ss , U n iver si ty of Mi n h o
lfag uiar @ee g. um in h o . pt
Has sler , J oh n – In s ti tu t e for I n te r na ti o na l Ec on om ic S tud ies , S t ock h ol m Un iver si ty ( I I ES)
jo h n .h as sl er@ iie s .su . se
Kr us ell , Per – I n s ti tu te for I n te r na ti o nal E co n o mic S tud ies , S t ock h o lm Un iver si ty ( I I ES)
mar ti n. fl od e n @ne . su. se
McG r a tta n, Ell en – De p ar t me n t of E c o n o mic s, U ni ver si ty of Mi n ne s ota .
e r m@ um n .ed u
HIGHLIGHTS - MACROECONOMICS, MACROECONOMETRICS, TIME SERIES
201 4 - 15
Jea n M o nne t F el l ow at t he Ro ber t S ch um ann A dva nce d St ud ies Ce nter , Eur op ean
Un iv er s ity Ins ti tu te, Fl or en ce.
201 4
Fis cal Mul ti pl i er s in t h e 21 s t C ent ur y (J o b M a r ket Pa per ), t o ge th er wi th Ha n s H ol ter, Per
Kru sel l a nd L aur e nc e Ma lafr y .
Abs tr ac t: Th e r e c e n t e x pe r ie nc e of a Grea t Rec es si o n ha s br ou gh t t he e ffect ive ne ss o f f isc al
p ol icy b ac k i n t o f oc u s. F i sc al mul ti p lier s d o, h o we ver, v ary gre at ly o ver ti m e and place . Ru n n in g
V AR s f or a la r ge n um b e r o f c ou ntr ie s, we d o c ume nt a str o n g c orre la t io n be t wee n wea lt h
ineq ual ity a nd t he m ag ni tud e o f f i scal m ul ti pl ier s . T o e x pla i n t hi s fi nd i n g , we d eve lo p a l ife cycle, o ve r la p p in g ge ne r ati o n s e c o n omy w it h u n i n sura ble la b or mar ket r i sk . We ca li bra te our
mod e l t o ma tc h ke y c har ac te r i s tic s of a num ber o f O EC D ec o n om ies , i nc l ud in g t he d i s tri bu ti o n
of wa ge s a nd we a lt h , s oc ial se c ur i ty , ta xe s and d e bt a nd s tud y t he effec t s of c ha n gi ng p ol icie s
and va r i ou s f or m s of i n e quali ty o n t he fi sca l m ult ip lier . We fi nd t hat t he fi sca l mu lt i plie r is
hi g hly se ns it ive t o t he fr ac ti o n of t he p o pula t io n w ho f ace b i nd i n g cred i t co ns tra i nt s a nd al s o
ne gat ive ly r e l ate d t o th e ave r a ge weal t h le vel i n t he ec o no my . T h is e x pl ain s t he c orre lat i o n
be twe en we al t h i ne qu ali t y and fi scal mu lt i pl iers .
200 7- 13
Lect ur er , Th es is S uper vis or a nd Tea ch in g Ass ista n t at t he BS c, MSc a nd P hD leve l f or 1 3
cour se s wi t h 305 ho ur s of te ac h in g/ l ectur i ng ex per ience i n t he c la ss ro o m a n d 3 t hes i s su perv ised
th at wer e suc c e s sful ly d e fe nd e d ( w it h d i st in ct io n) . C our se ev alua ti o n s p rov id ed u p o n r eque s t
(fie ld s :
M ac r oe c on o mi c s,
Micr oec o n om ic s,
Ti me
Serie s
A n a lys is ,
Ec o n o metr ic s,
Macr oec o n ome tr i c s )
201 4
Dis tor t io ns in the N eo c l as s i cal G r ow th M odel: A Cr oss Co un tr y A nalys is
Jour na l of Ec o n o mic Dy na mic s a nd C on tr ol , V ol ume 4 7, Oc t ob er 2 014 , P age s 1 -19 , IS SN 01 65 188 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.07.0139
201 4
Cha pt er f or t he S ec on d Ed it io n of Han db o ok o f M acr e c on om i cs, Els e vi er
Joi n t wi t h Var ad a r aja n C har i, Patr ick Keh oe a nd El le n McGr at ta n .
Ed i t or s: Ha r ald U hli g a n d J o h n Tayl or , f or t hc om i n g s pr i ng 20 16 .
2013
Stockholm Doctoral Course Program in Economics, Econometrics and Finance (SDPE)
(Joint Ph.D. program by the University of Stockholm and Stockholm School of Economics)
PhD in Economics – Essays in Quantitative Macroeconomics
201 3
Opponent: Professor Ellen McGrattan, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, October 8th 2013
“ M one tar y B us ines s C y cl e Ac c oun ti ng f or Swe den ”
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. Volume 13, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, ISSN (Print) 21946116, DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2013-0027, October 2013
PHONE: +351 912 206 887 ● E-MAIL: [email protected] ● WWW.PEDROBRINCA.PT
ROBERT SCHUMANN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE
EDUCATION
201 3
St ockholm Doctoral Course Program in Economics, Econometrics and Finance (SDPE)
(Joint Ph.D. program by the University of Stockholm and Stockholm School of Economics)
Ph.D. in Economics
201 2 - 13
200 8 - 0 9
200 5 - 0 6
Faculty of Economics, Centre of Economics and Finance, University of Porto
Visiting Scholar
Department of Economics, University of Minnesota
Visiting Scholar
Dep art me n t of Ec o n om ic s, U ni ve rs it y of S t ock h ol m
Master of Science in Economics and Business Administration, with a major in Economics
§ Classification of Val Godkand (with Honours)
200 3- 0 5
De par tme n t of Ec o n om i c s, U ni vers i ty of S t ock h o lm
Bachelor of Science in Economics and Business Administration with a major in Economics
§ Classification of Val Godkand (with Honours)
200 3 - 0 4
De par tme n t of Ec o n om i c s, U ni vers i ty of S t ock h o lm
Socra tes / Eras mus Ex chan ge Pr ogra m
§ Val Godkand (with Honours) in 6 out of 6 courses
RELEVANT PROFESSIONAL AND TEACHING EXPERIENCE
201 4 - 15
Jea n M on net Fel l ow ( pos t - d oc ) at the Ro b er t S chu ma nn Ad van c ed S tud i es C ent er ,
Eur o pea n Un iv er s ity In s ti tut e, Fl or enc e.
201 3 - 14
Lect ur e r – De par t me n t of Ec o n om ic s , St oc kh o l m U ni ver si ty
Lect ur er o f MS c Ti me Ser ies Ec o no me tr i cs, f or t he MSc in Ec on o mic s a nd MSc i n B an ki n g
and Fi n anc e , D e p ar t me nt of Ec o no mic s a nd S t ock h ol m Bu si ne s s Sc h oo l, St ock h ol m U ni ver si ty.
(24 lec tur e h our s )
Lect ur er of E mp ir ic al Met h ods in E co no m ics I, for th e BSc i n Ec o n o mic s, De par tme n t o f
Ec o n om ic s , S t oc k h ol m U ni ve r si ty ( 20 lec ture h our s) .
Thes is S uper v is or – De par tme n t of Ec o n o mic s, St ock h ol m U n iver si ty
2013-2014
Optimum currency area and business cycle synchronization across the U.S. States, MSc thesis in
Economics by Haukur Vidar Gudjonsson. Grade: Pass with Distinction (A).
2013-2014
Does money growth improve inflation forecasts? An out-of-sample forecast comparison for
Sweden, MSc thesis in Economics by Andreas Collet. Grade: Pass with Distinction (A).
2013-2014
Estimating a Taylor rule under zero lower bound interest rates, BSc thesis in Economics by
Hermione Heffernan and Nicklas Cervin. Grade: Pass with Distinction (B).
201 3 -
Ref er e e
- J our nal o f Bu s ine s s Cy c le A na ly si s a nd Mea sure men t
- J our nal o f Mac r oe c o no mic s
201 2 -
Ass oc ia te R es e ar ch er ( Ex ter nal ) at t he Ce nte r for E c on om i cs an d F ina nc e, Fa cult y o f
Ec on om ic s o f Por t o, U ni ver s it y of P or t o.
201 3
Adj un ct L ec tur er , De p a r tme n t of Ec o n o mic s , St ock h ol m Un iver s ity .
201 3
Intr od uct i on t o Qu ant i t ati ve Me th ods in M acr o ec on om ic s wi th MatL ab Lect ur er , in te n si ve
MSc/ P h D c our se mi ni s te r e d at t he Fac ul ty of Ec o n om ic s, Un iver s ity o f C o im bra . (16 h ou rs ).
201 2 - 13
M Sc E mp ir ic al Ma cr o ec on om ic s Ex a m iner , for t he M Sc i n Ec o n o mic s , De par tme n t of
Ec o n om ic s , S t oc k h ol m , Un ive r si ty .
2011 - 12
M Sc T im e Ser ies E co no me tr i cs G u est Le ctu r er , f or t he M Sc i n Ec o n om ics a nd MSc i n
Ba nki n g and F in an c e , D e par tme n t o f Ec o n om ics a nd S t ock h ol m Bu si ne s s S ch o o l, St oc k ho lm
Un iver si ty . ( 3 le c tur e h o ur s – I nt rod uct io n t o VA Rs ) C our se ev alua ti o n s a vail ab le u p o n reque s t
PHONE: +351 912 206 887 ● E-MAIL: [email protected] ● WWW.PEDROBRINCA.PT
ROBERT SCHUMANN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE
2011 - 12
M Sc T im e Ser ies Ec o no me tr i cs Tea ch in g A ssist ant f or Mark us Jä nt t i, fo r t he M Sc i n
Ec o n om ic s a nd MSc i n B ank i ng a nd F i na nce, De p art men t of Ec o no mic s a n d St ock h ol m Bu si ne s s
Sch o ol , S t oc k h ol m U n ive r si ty . ( 54 h our s ). C our se evalua ti o n s a vai la ble up o n requ es t.
2011 - 12
M Sc Me th od ol ogy S e mi nar L ec tur er – S i m ulat i on Tec hn iq ues wi th MatL ab , MSc i n
Ec o n om ic s , De par tme n t of Ec o n om ic s a nd MSc in Bu si ne ss Ad mi n is tra ti o n , S toc k h ol m Bu s ine s s
Sch o ol , S t oc k h ol m U n ive r si ty . ( 8 h our s) C our se e valua ti o n s a vai la ble u p o n reques t .
2011 - 12
M Sc Ma cr oec on o m ics T each i ng A ssis tan t , f or Mar ti n Fl od é n, MSc i n Ec o n om ics , De par tme n t
of Ec o n om ic s, St oc kh o l m U ni ve r si ty . ( 24 h our s) Cour se e val uat i o ns ava ila ble up o n reque st .
2011 - 12
M Sc M eth od ol og y Se m i nar L ect ur er – A Pr im e r i n Mat Lab , MSc i n Ec o n om ics , De par tme n t
of Ec o n o mic s a nd MS c in Bu si ne s s Ad m i ni s trat i o n, St oc k ho lm Bu s in es s Sch o o l, St oc kh o lm
Un iver si ty . ( 8 h our s) . C o ur se e valu at i on s a vai la bl e up o n req ues t .
201 0 - 11
M Sc T im e Ser ies E co no me tr i cs G u est Le ctu r er , f or t he M Sc i n Ec o n om ics a nd MSc i n
Ba nki n g and F in an c e , D e par tme n t o f Ec o n om ics a nd S t ock h ol m Bu si ne s s S ch o o l, St oc k ho lm
Un iver si ty . ( 3 h our s – I n tr od uc t i o n t o V AR s ) C ou rse e valua t io n s a vai la ble up o n reque s t.
201 0- 11
M Sc T im e Ser ies Ec o no me tr i cs Tea ch in g A ssist ant f or Mark us Jä nt t i, fo r t he M Sc i n
Ec o n om ic s a nd MSc i n B ank i ng a nd F i na nce, De p art men t of Ec o no mic s a n d St ock h ol m Bu si ne s s
Sch o ol , S t oc k h ol m U n ive r si ty . ( 54 h our s ). C our se evalua ti o n s a vai la ble up o n requ es t.
201 0 - 11
M Sc Ma cr oec on o m ics T each i ng A ssis tan t , f or Mar ti n Fl od é n, MSc i n Ec o n om ics , De par tme n t
of Ec o n om ic s, St oc kh o l m U ni ve r si ty . ( 24 h our s) Cour se e val uat i o ns ava ila ble up o n reque st .
200 9 - 10
M Sc T im e Ser ies Ec on om etr ics T eac hi ng A s si st an t f or M at t he w L i nd q vi st , f or t he MSc i n
Ec o n om ic s a nd MSc i n B ank i ng a nd F i na nce, De p art men t of Ec o no mic s a n d St ock h ol m Bu si ne s s
Sch o ol , U n ive r si ty of St o c kh o lm . (54 h our s ) C our se ev alua ti o n s a vai la ble u p o n reque s t.
200 9 - 10
Rese ar ch In ter n at the Eur ope an Ce ntr al Ba n k, Ex ter n al D evel o pm e nts D i vis i on , u nd er
th e s upe r vi s io n o f S te ph ane De e s, Pri nci p al Ec o n om i st
200 7 - 0 8
PhD E co no m etr ics T e ach in g Ass ist ant f or Dav id S tr o mbe rg a nd P er Pe tter s o n -L id bo m ,
St ock h ol m D oc t or al P r o gr am in Ec o n o mic s (S PD E) , S t ock h ol m U ni ve rsi ty a n d St oc k ho lm
Sch o ol o f Ec o no mic s (9 h our s) . C our se e val uat i o n s av ail ab le u p o n reque s t .
200 7 - 0 8
MS c Ma cr o ec o no m ics Te ach i ng Assis t ant f or A n ne Bo sc h in i, MSc i n Ec o n om ic s , De pa rtme n t
of Ec o n om ic s, St oc kh o l m U ni ve r si ty (6 h our s ). Cour se e val uat i o ns ava ila ble up o n reque st .
200 7 - 0 8
M Sc M icr o ec on om ic s T eac hi ng Ass ist ant f or A n n- So fi e K ol m, MSc i n Ec on om ic s ,
Dep art me n t of Ec o n om ic s, S t oc k h ol m U niv ers ity ( 14 h our s ). C our se eva lua ti o ns a vai la ble u p o n
reques t.
200 5 - 0 6
C o n sum e r I nd e bt e d ne s s Ob se r vat or y of th e Ce n tre f or S oc ial St u d ies of t he Facul ty of
Ec o n om ic s o f C oi m br a U ni ve r si ty
Associate Researcher
Gra nt fr om t he S c ie nc e a nd Te c hn o l ogy Fo und at i o n (ST F) :
§ U ne m pl oy me nt a nd Ind e b te d ne s s - Pr ojec t C o or d ina t or : M. M . Marque s
- Pro jec t r e p or t f or t he STF ( w it h Ca tar i na Frad e, Claud ia L op es , Sara M agal hã es a nd Cl aud ia
No gue ir a )
§ Pilot project in financial literacy, at Instituto D. João V.
PUBLISHED AND SUBMITTED WORK IN ECONOMICS
201 4
Dis tor t io ns in the N eo c l as s i cal G r ow th M odel: A Cr oss Co un tr y A nalys is
Jour na l of Ec o n o mic Dy na mic s a nd C on tr ol , V ol ume 4 7, Oc t ob er 2 014 , P age s 1 -19 , IS SN 01 65 188 9 , http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2014.07.013
Abs tr ac t : T hi s p ape r i n ve s ti ga te s t he pr o per tie s of d i st or ti o n s t ha t ma ni fes t t he m selve s a s
wed ges i n t he e qu il i br iu m c o nd i ti o n s of t he ne o clas s ical gr o w t h m od e l a cro ss a sa m ple o f 2 2
OE CD c ou n tr ie s f or t he 1970 -2 011 per iod . T he quan ti ta ti ve relev a nce of each w ed ge a nd i t s
ro bu st ne s s in ge ne r at i ng fluc tua ti o n s i n ma cr oec o n om ic a gg reg ate s is a ss es sed . T he e ffic ie ncy
wed ge pr ove s t o be d e t e r mi na n t i n e n ab li n g m od el s t o re pl ica te mo ve men t s i n o ut pu t a nd
PHONE: +351 912 206 887 ● E-MAIL: [email protected] ● WWW.PEDROBRINCA.PT
ROBERT SCHUMANN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE
in ves t me nt , w hi le the l ab or we d ge is i mp or ta n t t o p red ic t f luct uat i o n s i n h our s w or ked .
M od el in g d i st or ti o n s t o th e sav i ng s d eci si o n h o l d s li tt le qua nt it at ive o r quali ta ti ve re leva nce .
Al s o, i nve st me nt se e m s t o be t he hard e s t ag gre ga t e to r ep lica te , a s pred ic ti o n err or s co nce rn i ng
ou tp ut a nd h our s w or ke d ar e ty pica lly o ne o rd er of m ag ni tud e sm al ler. T he se co nc lu si o n s are
st at is tic ally si g nif ic a nt a c r o ss t he c ou ntr ie s i n t h e sa m ple a nd are no t li m ited t o ou t pu t d r o p s.
Fin al ly, t he ge o gr a p h ic al d i st anc e be t wee n c ou n tr ies a nd t hei r d e gree of o pe n nes s t o t rad e are
s ho w n t o c o n ta i n in f o r ma ti o n w it h reg ard t o t he w ed ge s , st res si n g t he i mp or ta nce of
in ter na ti o na l me c ha ni s m s of tr an s mi s si o n bet wee n d i s to rt io n s to t he equ il ibr iu m co nd it i on s of
th e neo c la s sic a l g r o w t h mod e l.
201 3
“ M one tar y B us ines s C y cl e Ac c oun ti ng f or Swe den ”
The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics. Volume 13, Issue 1, Pages –, ISSN (Online) 1935-1690, ISSN (Print) 21946116, DOI: 10.1515/bejm-2013-0027, October 2013
Abs tr ac t: “ W he n c r e a ti n g c o mpe t in g m od e ls of e c on o mic f luct uat i on s , researc her s ty p ical ly
in tr od uc e fr ic ti o n s i n t he ir m od e ls ai mi n g t o re pl i cate t he o bse rved m ove m en ts i n t he d a ta. T h is
pa per i m ple me nt s a bu si ne ss c y c le acc ou n ti n g pr oced ure f or t he S wed i s h eco n omy . B o t h t h e
199 0's a nd 20 08 r e c e s si o n s ar e gi ven a spe cia l f o cus. E vid e nce i s pr ov id e d f or pr o per tie s t ha t
str uctu r al e x te ns i o ns t o t he bu s ine s s cyc le m o d el need t o ha ve in or d er t o re plic ate t he
mo vem e n t s i n t he d a ta . Di st or ti o n s t o t he la b or m arke t a nd m o veme nt s in t ot al fac t or
pr od uc tiv i ty ar e t he m o s t d e te r mi na n t fea ture s t o be m od eled w it h re s pec t t o real vari ab le s as
wel l a s d e via ti o n s f r o m a Tay lo r r u le f or i ntere s t rate se tt i ng , t ho ug h t he l atte r play s li t tle r o le
for bo t h t he 19 90 s or 2 0 08 r e c e s si o n s . Th e d i s t or ti o ns seem to s hare a s t r uctura l brea k d uri n g
th e 19 90 s c r i si s but no t s o d ur i ng t he cur ren t o ne . ”
201 3
“ C onsu mer C o nf id enc e as a Pr ed i ct or of C ons ump t io n Spe nd in g: E v i den ce for th e
Un it ed St ates an d Eur o Ar ea ”
Joi n t wi t h S te p ha ne De e s , pu bli s hed i n t he E CB W ork i ng Pa per Se rie s, av aila bl e a t:
ht t p :/ / w w w .e c b. i nt/ pu b / pd f/ sc p wp s/ ec b w p1 349 .pd f
Fi nal ver s i on publ is h ed in In tern at ional Ec on omics 2 01 3, Iss ue n º13 4 . ava ilabl e a t
http: // dx . d oi . or g/1 0. 1 0 16/j . in tec o. 201 3.0 5.00 1
Abs tr ac t : “F or mo s t ac a d e mic s a nd po licy make r s, t he d e pt h of the 20 08 - 09 fi na nc ial cr i si s, it s
lo n gev ity a nd i t s i mp ac t s o n t he real ec o n omy r esul ted fr o m a n ero s io n of c o nfid e nce . T hi s
pa per pr op o se s t o a sse s s e m pir ica lly t he l i nk be t ween c o n sume r se n ti me nt a nd c o ns um p ti o n
expe nd it ur e s f or t he U n ite d St ate s a nd t he eu ro area . I t s h ow s u nd er w hic h circu m st ance s
co nfid e nc e i nd ic at or s c a n be a g o od pred ic to r of h ou se ho ld c o n su mp ti o n even af ter c on tr ol li n g
for i nf or ma ti o n i n e c o n om ic fu nd a men ta ls . O veral l, the re su lt s sh o w tha t , t he c on su mer
co nfid e nc e i nd e x c a n be i n c e r tai n circ um s ta nces a g ood pred ict or of c o n su mp ti o n . I n p ar tic ular ,
ou t- of- sa m ple e v id e nc e s h o ws th at the c o nt ri bu ti o n of c o nfid ence in e xp l ain i ng c o n sum p ti o n
expe nd it ur e s i nc r e a se s w he n h ous eh o ld survey i nd ica t or s fea ture lar g e cha n ge s, s o t ha t
co nfid e nc e i nd ic a to r s c an have so me i ncrea si n g pred ict ive po we r d ur i ng suc h e p is od e s.
M ore ove r , t he r e is s ome e vid e nc e o f a "co nf id e n ce cha n nel" in t he i nte rn ati o na l tra n s m i ss i on
of s h ock , a s U .S . c o nfid e nc e ind ice s hel p pred ict i n g c on su mer se n ti men t i n t he eur o ar e a. ”
200 5
“U ne mpl oy me nt a nd O ver ind eb ted ness, C on to ur s o f a Dan ger ous R el ati o nsh ip ” w it h
Catar i na Fr ad e , Cláud ia L o pe s, Cláud ia N ogue ira , and Sara Ma ga lh ães - Re searc h Rep or t , C ES
Pub lica ti o n s 2 00 6 .
UNPUBLISHED WORK IN ECONOMICS
200 6
“Th e I mpa ct o f P ubl ic Inv es t men t in S wed en – A V A R Ap pr o ach ”
Ma ste r T he si s (De p ar t me nt of Ec o n om ics o f S t oc kh o lm U nive rs ity )
200 5
“ Ar e Ka nt’s Ca te gor i cal Im per a ti ve and Ins tr u men tal Rat i ona li ty C o mpa ti ble? Th e Case
for th e Pr is on er ’s D il e mm a”
Bac hel or T he s i s ( De par t me n t of Eco n o mic s of St ock h ol m Un iver s ity )
WORK IN PROGRESS IN ECONOMICS
201 4
Opt im um C ur r en cy Ar e a and B us iness C ycl e S ync hr o ni zat i on A cr oss U. S. Sta tes
- j oi nt wi th L uí s A guiar - Co nr ar ia , H aukur Gud j o n ss o n a nd Jo an a S oare s
Preli mi nar y pr oje c t d e sc r ip ti o n : Th i s pr ojec t in ve st ig ate s t o w ha t e xte n t i nd i vid ua l U.S . s ta tes'
bu si ne s s c y c le s a r e si mil ar t o t he na ti o nal b us i ne ss cycle , u si n g wav ele t a nal ys is . T he d e gree of
sy nc hr on i za ti o n i s su m me d up i n a si n gle valu e, t he d i s si mil i tud e coe f ficie n t, a nd give s a n
ind ica ti o n t o h o w we ll st ate s sa ti sfy o ne of the o pt im al curre ncy a rea cri t eria, si mi lar bu si ne s s
cycles . T he r e sul t s s h o w th at t he U. S. st ate s are r emark ab ly well sy nc hr o ni zed c om par ed t o t he
PHONE: +351 912 206 887 ● E-MAIL: [email protected] ● WWW.PEDROBRINCA.PT
ROBERT SCHUMANN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE
euro are a . T he r e i s al s o a str o n g a nd si g ni fi ca n t c or relat i o n be t wee n bu si ne s s cycle d i s si mi li tud e s
and d is ta nc e be t we e n e ac h pai r o f sta te s. T hi s i s a rgued t o b e d ue to d i sta n ce affec ti ng trad e, in
accord a nc e t o t he gr av ity m od e l , a nd trad e in tu rn inc rea si n g bus i nes s cy cl e sy nc hr o ni za ti o n.
201 5
Cha pt er f or t he S ec on d Ed it io n of Han db o ok o f M acr e c on om i cs, Els e vi er
Joi n t wi t h Var ad a r aja n C har i, Patr ick Keh oe a nd El le n McGr at ta n , f or thc om i ng S pri n g 2 016
Ed i t or s: Ha r ald U hli g a n d J o h n Tayl or
201 4
Fis cal Mul ti pl ier s in th e 21 s t C en tur y
Joi n t wi t h Ha ns H o lte r , Pe r Kr u sell a nd L aure nce Ma lafry .
The rece nt e x pe r ie nc e of a Gr e at Rece ss i on has b rou g ht t he ef fect ive ne s s of fi scal p o licy bac k
in t o f oc u s . Fi sc a l mul ti p l ie r s d o , h o wever , vary gr eatly o ver ti me a nd p lace . Ru n n in g V AR s f or
a lar ge num be r o f c o un t r ie s , we d ocu men t a s tr o n g co rrela ti o n be t w ee n wea lt h ine qual ity a nd
th e ma g ni tud e of fi sc a l m ult ip lie r s . T o ex p lai n t hi s find i ng , we d evel o p a l if e -cycle , o verla p p in g
ge nera ti o ns e c o n o my wi t h u ni n sura b le la b or mar k et ri sk . We ca li bra te our mod e l to ma tc h key
charac te r is ti c s of a nu m b e r of O EC D ec o n om ie s, i nclud i ng the d i s tri bu ti o n of w age s a nd wea lt h ,
s ocia l se c ur ity , ta xe s a nd d e b t and stud y the eff ec ts of c ha n gi n g p ol icie s a nd vari ou s f orm s of
ineq ual ity on the f isc a l mul ti pl ie r . We fi nd t ha t th e f isc al mu lt ip lie r i s h i g hly se n si ti ve t o t he
fract i on of t he po pu la ti o n w ho face bi nd i n g cred i t co ns tra i nt s a nd a ls o ne g ati vely re lat ed t o the
avera ge we al t h le ve l i n t he e c o no my . T hi s e x pla i n s t he c orre lat i o n be t we en weal t h i nequ ali ty
and f i sc al mu lt ip lie r s .
201 3
Bus in es s Cy cl e A cc oun ti ng a nd Equ il ibr iu m I ndet er mi nac y: E qu iv ale nce Res ults
Joi n t wi t h L u is A gu iar - C o nr ar ia
Preli mi nar y pr o je c t d e sc r ip ti o n : M o s t equi vale n ce resul t s c on cer n d irec t ex te ns i o ns of t he
ba sel i ne r e al b us i ne s s c y c le or new Key ne sia n fr ame w ork s. Th i s pr oje ct aim s i n e s ta bl is h i ng
equiva le nc e r e su lt s be t w e e n t he pr o t oty pe ec on o my i n t he bus i ne ss cycle m od el a nd s tyl iz ed
mod e l s of e qu il i br iu m i n d e te r m i nacy .
PUBLISHED AND SUBMITTED WORK IN BIOSTATISTICS
201 3
“ Imp li cat i ons o f in fec ti ous age nts i n v ent ila t or in duc ed pne um o ni a ”
Joi n t wi t h Dia s , M . , Pie d ad e , A. , Marça l , P. a nd A na A nt un es .
Und er su b mi s si o n.
201 3
“ Tub er c ul os is s cr e en in g an d tr eat me nt co mpl i ance i n H IV pa ti en ts ”
Joi n t wi t h Vi ve ir o s, F. M ar gar id a, M . , Car val h o , A . a nd Duar te, R.
Pub li s he d i n Rev is ta Po rt u gu es a d e P n e um o l ogia ( E ng li sh E dit i on) , 1 9( 3) ,13 4 - 1 38
201 2
“All er g ic D is eas e Se ver it y an d R elat i ons”
Joi n t wi t h Vi ve ir o s, F. , Go nç alve s , I. , L i ma , R . , Duar te, R. , P asc oa l, I . , M oura e Sá , J. a nd
Aur ora Car v al h o.
Pub li s he d o nli ne i n W or l d A ll er gy Org a nizat i o n J o ur na l, 20 12 , F e br ua ry ; S up( 2 ) , S 94 .
2011
“St ud y o f t he Mu ta ti on al S tat e of EG F R in D i agn ost ic S am ples o f
N SC L – New
Ap pr o ach M et ho ds ”
Joi n t wi t h A ntu ne s , A. , Cam pa in ha , S . , Ba rr os o , A. , C o nd e , S ., Neve s , S ., Mac had o , J. C. and
Bar bara Par e nt e .
Pub li s he d i n Jo u r na l of Th or ac ic O nc o l ogy 20 11 , V ol u me 6, Is s ue 6 , pp . S 1 495 - S 149 6
2011
“Ep ide m i ol o gy and S ur vi val A nalys is o f Lu ng Can cer – 10 Y ear s o f E x per ien ce in a
Por tu gues e R es p ir a tor y Re fer e nc e C en ter ”
Joi n t wi t h Ca m pa in ha , S . , An tu ne s, A ., Bar ro s o , A. , C o nd e , S ., Neve s , S ., and Bar bara Pare n te.
Pub li s he d i n Jo u r na l of Th or ac ic O nc o l ogy 20 11 , V ol u me 6, Is s ue 6 , pp . S 1 431 - S 143 2
COMPLEMENTARY EDUCATION
201 4
PhD c our s e i n Cal ibr a t i on and S tr uc tur al Est i mat i on o f M acr oe co n o metr i c M o dels –
mi ni s ter e d by F ab i o Ca n ova , f r o m t he Eur o pea n Un iver si ty I n st itu te , i n F lore nce .
201 4
C om mu ni cat i on i n G a m es , T he or y and Ex p er i men ts – mi ni s tered by I nd ra ji t Ray fr om t he
Dep art me n t of Ec o n om ic s of t he U n iver si ty of Bir mi n gh am , a t U n iver sid ad e Cat ó lica d o
Por t o.
PHONE: +351 912 206 887 ● E-MAIL: [email protected] ● WWW.PEDROBRINCA.PT
ROBERT SCHUMANN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE
201 4
Ap pl ied Ma cr oec on o m i cs Re s ear ch W or k sh op – mi ni s tered by P er Kru s ell a nd T o bia s
Br oer , fr om t he I I ES , Ha n s H o lte r a nd S vet la na P ache nk o fr om t he De par t men t of Eco n o mic s
of t he U n ive r si ty of U p p sal a, a t St ock h o lm U nive rsi ty .
201 4
Pr i nc ipl es of F is cal an d M on etar y Pol ic y – mi ni s tered by Ped r o Te les , fro m th e Ba n k of
Por tu gal and Ca t ho lic U ni ve r si ty of L is b o n , i n F aculty of Ec o n om ics o f P or to , P or t o.
201 3
Flex ibl e r e gr es s i on t hr ou gh G ener ali ze d Add i ti ve M ode ls (G AMs ). B i om ed ic al
appl ica t io ns us in g R – mi ni s te r ed by Carm en M aría C ad ar so -Suá re z, U ni t of Bi o sta ti s tic s Sch o ol o f Me d ic i ne , U n i ve r s ity o f Sa n tia g o d e Co mp o s tela , a t I ns t itu t o Su peri or d e Saúd e
Púb lica d a U ni ve r sid ad e d o P or t o, P ort o .
201 3
Und er s ta nd in g Cl in ical Tr ial s – mi n is tered by A na A zeved o , U ni ver si ty of Po rt o , a t
I ns ti tu t o Su pe r i or d e S aú d e P úb lic a d a U n iver sid a d e d o P or t o , P ort o .
201 2
The S c ien ce and Ar t of DSG E Mo dell in g: A C o ur se on M odel c ons tr uc ti on, Ca li br at i on,
Est ima t io n a nd Pol i cy An al ys is – mi n is tered by Paul L e vi ne , U n iver si ty of Surrey a nd B o
Ya n g, fr om t he L o nd o n Me t r o p o li ta n U n iver si ty and Un iver s ity o f Surrey , at Un iver s id ad e d o
Mi n h o, Esc o la d e Ec o n o mia e Ge s ta o, Bra ga .
200 9
Dynar e Tr a in in g Co ur s e – m i ni ste red by S te ph a ne Ad je mi an . fr o m t he D epar tme n t of
Ec o n om ic s , Un ive r s ite d u Ma i n, at t he Eur o pea n Cen tra l Ba n k
200 9
PhD c our s e i n Fi nan ci a l Ec on om i cs – mi ni s tere d by E lle n Mc Gra tta n , fr om t he U nive rs ity
of Mi n ne s ot a, at t he De p ar t me n t of E co n o mic s, U ni ver si ty of Mi n ne s ota .
200 8 - 0 9
W or ks h op in Lab or Ec o no m ics – Ye arly Ph D c o urse mi n is tered by J o se Vic t or R i os Ru ll , a t
th e De pa r t me nt o f Ec on om ic s, U nive rs ity o f Mi n ne so ta
200 8
PhD c our s e i n R is k Sha r in g an d New Dy na mi c Publ i c F i nan ce – mi n is tered by Naraya na
K oc herl ak ot a, U nive r s ity of M i nne s o ta, at t he De par tme n t of Ec o n o mic s - Un iver s ity of O sl o .
200 8
Su m mer Sc ho ol i n B ay e s ian Ec on o me tr i cs – mi ni s tered by Ja me s Ham il t o n, U ni vers it y of
Cali fo rn ia – Sa n D ie go , a t t he E sc o la d e Ec o n om i a e Ge s tã o - U nive rs id ad e d o Mi n h o , Br aga .
200 7
Su m mer Sc ho ol i n F in a nce: M od er n Dyn am ic Ass et Pr i c ing M od els – mi ni s tered by
Pietr o Ve r o ne si , fr o m t h e Un ive r s ity o f C hica g o , at U n iver sid ad e N o va d e L is b oa
200 7
Su m mer C our s e i n Q ua nt ita ti ve M eth ods i n M acr o ec on o mi cs a nd P ol ic y Anal ys is –
mi ni s ter e d by E lle n Mc G r at te n , f ro m t he U n iver si ty of Mi n ne s ota , a t t he E sc ola d e Ec on o mia
e Ge stã o - U n ive r sid ad e d o Mi n h o, Bra ga .
200 7
PhD In tens i ve C our s e i n G r o wth P ol ic y – m i ni s tered by P h ili pe A g hi o n, fro m Harv ard
Un iver si ty , a t t he St oc k h ol m Sc h o ol o f Ec o no mic s
200 7
PhD m in i- co ur s e in In t er nat i on al M acr oe co no mi cs – mi n is tered by Ti mo t hy J . Ke h oe,
fro m th e U ni ve r si ty of M in ne s ot a, at t he No rw eg i an S ch o o l of Ec o n om ics and Bu si ne ss
Ad m i ni st r at i o n, Be r ge n
200 7
PhD m in i- co ur s e in T o pi cs in Se ar ch Th e or y – mi ni s tered by Sus an V r om an a nd Ji m
Al brec h t, fr om Ge or ge t o w n U n i ver si ty , a t t he St o ckh o lm U nive rs ity .
200 6
Inte ns iv e C o ur s e in S pa tial Ec on o me tr i cs – mi n is tered by Ja me s L eSa ge f ro m t he De par tme n t
of Fi na nc e a nd E c o n o mi c s, C ol le ge of B us i nes s Ad m i ni st rat i o n, Te xa s St ate U niv ers ity , a t t he
Facul ty of Ec o n om ic s of th e U ni ver si ty of C o im br a.
LANGUAGE PROFFICIENCY
Por tu gues e
Na t ive la n gua ge
Engl ish
E xc e ll e n t P r o f ic ie nc y , wr it te n a nd s po ke n
§ T e st of E ng li sh a s F o re ig n La ng uag e ( T OEF L) sc o re 290/ 300 ( 9/ 9/ 05) .
PHONE: +351 912 206 887 ● E-MAIL: [email protected] ● WWW.PEDROBRINCA.PT
ROBERT SCHUMANN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE
Spa n ish
Go od Pr ofic ie nc y , w r i tte n a nd s p oke n
Fr en ch
Bas ic Pr o fic ie nc y , wr it te n a nd s p oke n
GRANTS & AWARDS
201 4
Jea n M o nne t F el l ows h i p fr om th e E ur o pea n C om m iss io n , p o s t -d oc to r al po s it i on at t he
Ro ber t Sc hu ma n n Ad va n c e d Stud ies In s ti tu te, Eu ro pea n U nive rs ity I n s ti t ute, Fl ore nce .
2011
Rese ar ch G r an t fr o m H andel s ban ke n
200 7
PhD S ch ol ar s hi p fr o m t he F o und at io n for S ci e nce and Te ch nol o gy , M in is try of Scie nce ,
Tec hn o l ogy and H ig he r Ed uc a ti o n , P or tu gues e G over n me nt .
200 6
Sti pe nd i um ur S tif te l se n Er ik J oa h n L ju n berg s Ut bi ld ni ng sf o nd ( 1 4/ 9/ 200 6)
§ SE K 100 . 00 0 f or do kt or an ds tu d ier vi d Nat i o nale ko n om is ka I nst it ut i one n
200 5
Por tu gue se Ec o no mi s t s A ss oc iat i o n
§ 1 s t Pr iz e f or the Best Art icle in Ec on om ic Polic y, I Con test of The m es in E con om ics
– T he Im p or ta nc e of a P ac t ( wi th Ru be n Bra nc o)
CONFERENCE PARTICIPATIONS
201 5
“Ho o ver Ins t itu ti o n H andb o ok of Macr o ec on om i cs V olu me 2 C onf er enc e”, ( A cc ou nt ing
for Bus in es s C ycl es wi th Wed ges ), wi t h V arad araj an C ha ri , Patr ic k Ke h oe a nd E lle n
McG rat ta n , i n S ta nf or d , A pr i l 9 t h -11 t h .
201 5
“ Ba nk of Por tu gal W o r ks h op: Adj ust me nt in Eur o pea n Ec on o m ies in t he Wa ke of the
Ec on om ic Cr is is ”, ( F is cal Mul t ip li er s a nd We a lth H et er o gen e ity i n t h e X XI C ent ur y ), wi t h
Ha ns H o lte r , Pe r Kr u se l l and L aure nce Mal afry , i n L is b o n, Ja nuary 16 t h .
201 4
8 t h M eet i ngs o f th e P or tug ues e E c on om i c J our nal”, ( F iscal Mult i pli er s: D oes I neq ual it y
Mat ter ? ), wi t h Ha n s H o l te r , Pe r Kru se ll a nd L aur ence Ma lafry , i n Bra ga , J uly 4 t h t o 5 t h .
201 4
“ Int er na ti on al E c on om ic A s s o c iat i on 17 t h W o r ld C o ngr ess ”, (F is cal Mul t ipl ier s: D oes
Ineq ual it y Ma tt er ? ), w i th Ha n s H o lter , Per Kru sel l and L aure nce M alaf r y in Am ma n, J une 6 t h
to 10 t h .
201 3
“ 5th W or l d C on gr es s on Sl e ep Med i ci ne ”, ( Th e im pac t of b en zo di az ep i ne us e i n n oc tur na l
O2 sa tur a t io n of O S A S pat ie nts ), w it h Ma rta G o nçal ve s , A na A n tu nes , Al ber ta L eã o e Su sa n a
Mai a i n Va le nc ia , Se p te m be r 30 t h ,
201 3
“ 7 t h Ann ual M eet i ng o f the Por tug ues e Ec on om ic Jo ur nal ”, ( Dis tor t io ns in t he
Ne ocla s s i cal G r ow th M od el : A Cr oss C oun tr y An alys is ), i n U Beir a I n teri or , C ov il hã , July
8 t h -9 t h ,
201 3
“Publ i c Ec on o m ic The or y 2 01 3”, (D ist or t i ons in t he Ne ocl assi cal G r o wth M odel: A Cr oss
C oun tr y A nal ys is ), in U Cat ó lic a d e L i s b oa, L i s b o n, July 5 t h - 7 t h ,
201 2
“ Eur ope an N etw or k f or Tr a in in g i n Ec on om i cs co nf er en ce ” , ( Mo ne tar y Bus in ess
Cy cle A cc ou nt in g for S wed en ), i n U nive rs id ad Au to n o ma d e B arcel o na , Barcel o na , Feb ruary ,
9 t h 20 12 .
2011
“14 t h W or l d C on fer enc e on Lun g Ca ncer ”, ( St udy t he mu tat i on al state of EG FR i n
dia gn os t i c s a mpl es o f N S CL C – N ew ap pr oac h me th ods ) . Jo i nt w i t h A n tu ne s, A. ,
Cam pa in ha , S ., Ca s tr o, A. , Ba r r os o , A ., C o nd e , S., Neve s , S. a nd Pare n t e, B . i n 3 r d -7 t h Ju ly,
Am s terd a m.
2011
“14 t h Wor l d Co nf er en ce on Lu ng Ca ncer ”, ( E pid e mi ol og y a nd s ur v i val a nalys is i n lun g
canc er – 10 y ear s o f ex per ien ce in a P or t ug ue se r esp ir at or y r ef er en c e cen ter ). J oi n t w i t h
Cam pa in ha , S ., A nt une s , A. , Ba r r os o , A . , C ond e , S., Neve s , S. a nd Pa re n te, B. in 3 -7 t h July ,
Am s terd a m.
PHONE: +351 912 206 887 ● E-MAIL: [email protected] ● WWW.PEDROBRINCA.PT
ROBERT SCHUMANN CENTRE FOR ADVANCED STUDIES, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE
201 0
“In ter n at i onal Sy mp os i um on F or ecas ti ng ”, ( C onsu mer C on fi den ce as a Pr e di ct or o f
C onsu mp ti o n Sp en di ng : E vi den ce f or t he U S a nd Eur o - Ar e a ) , j oi n t w it h Ste p ha ne De es , Sa n
Die g o, J une .
201 0
“Eur op ean Res p ir a tor y S o ci et y An nual C ongr ess ” , ( Al er g ic d ise ase sever i ty: M on o vs
pol ise ns it iza ti o n ) , j oi nt wi t h Vi veir o s , F . , Go n ç al ves , I ., An tu ne s, A. , L im a, R. , Duar te , R. a nd
Carva lh o , A. ) , B ar c e l o na .
200 9
“Eur op ean Re s p ir at or y S oc ie ty A nnu al C o ngr ess ” , (EG FR – A use fu l bi o mar ker ? ), j oi nt
wi t h A ntu ne s , A. , Go me s , J . L i ma , C ., Mac had o , J . and Pare n te, B . i n Vi en n a, 1 2 - 16 Se p te mb er .
200 9
“X X XV I Re un i ón Ann ual SO G AP A R y X X VI I G alai c odur ie nse ”, ( F r acçã o Ex al ada d o
Óx id o N ítr ic o eBr on c opr ov o caçã o – O q ue pod e mos esp er ar ), jo i n t wi t h A n tu ne s, A .,
Go me s, J ., Viv e ir o s, F ., L our e ir o, A. , L im a, R ., C en ten o , C. a nd Gu im arãe s, M. , i n Sa nt ia go d e
Co m po s te la , 20 - 21 N ove mbe r , 20 09 .
200 9
“X X XV I Reu ni ó n An n ual SOG A P AR y X XV II G al ai c odur ie nse ”, ( DPO C – Adp ta ç ão
psi col ó gi ca à d oe nça ) , j oi n t wi t h A nt une s , A. , G ome s , Gui marãe s , M. , P a sc oal , I. a nd Tave ira ,
in Sa nt ia go d e C o mp o s te la, 20 -21 N ove m ber .
200 9
“16 º Co ngr es s o de P ne um ol og ia do N or te ”, ( Fen o e As ma de Ex er c íc i o – C or r el açã o? ).
Joi n t wi t h Vi ve ir o s, F. A ntu ne s , A. , G o me s, J. , Co st a, L . , G ui marãe s, M . a nd Ce n te n o, C. , i n
Por t o, 19 -20 M ar c h.
200 8
“X XI V C on gr es s o d e P neu m ol o g ia ” , (F eN O e PC 20 – Qu e es per ar ? ).
Joi n t w it h A n tu ne s , A ., Go me s, J . , Gu imar ães , M. , Co s ta , L ., Mac h ad o , J. a nd Pare n te, B ., i n
Por t o, 5 -8 t h De c e m be r . Pub li s hed i n Re vi s ta Por tu gue sa d e P neu m ol o gia , v ol ume X I V ,
su ple me nt o I V , De c e m be r .
200 6
“Ho w t o man ag e y our bud get w ith ou t pr ob le ms” Se mi nar , C. M. Pal m ela
Gue st S pe ake r ( A na ly s i s of C o n su m er I nde bte d ne ss i n P ort u gal ) , wi t h Sa ra Ma g alh ães , i n B i bl io teca
d o P i nh al N ov o, 16 t h of J anu ar y .
200 6
“Equa li ty an d S oc ial Incl u s i on in th e 21st C ent ur y: D ev elo pi ng Alter nat i ves - A n
in ter n at io nal m ul t i - d is ci pl i nar y c o nf er en ce ” , S ch ool of S oc i olo gy & S oc ial P ol ic y –
Quee n´ s U ni ver s i ty B el fas t . Co n fere nce Spe aker ( Ge nd e r S p ec i fic E f fec t s, A ttit ud es a nd S t rate gi es
in a C o nt ex t o f Ov er i nde bte dn es s Ri s k ) , w it h Sar a Ma gal hãe s , in We lli n g to n Pa rk H ote l , Be lfa s t, 3 r d
of F eb ruar y .
200 6
“ 7th I nt er - U n iver s i ty G r adua te Co nf er en ce: Chall en gi ng t he B oun dar i es i n th e S o ci al
Sc ie nc es , C entr e f or R e s ear ch in the Ar ts, S oc i al Sc i enc es an d Hu man it ies ” , Un i ver s it y o f
Ca mbr id ge . Th e li n k bet we e n n o rm s, v a l ue s a nd ec o n om ic o utc om e s. An Ev ol ut i o na ry app ro ac h ( p os ter ),
in Ca mbr id ge , 20 t h May .
200 6
“ Int er na ti on al Sy m pos iu m on E co n om ic T h eor y, Pol i cy and Ap p lica t io ns”, A t he ns
I ns ti tu te f or Ed uc at i on a nd Re se arc h – C o nfere nc e S peaker ( A re Ka nt ’s Ca t eg or ic al Im pe rat iv e a nd
In str u me n tal Rati o na li ty C o mpati bl e ? Th e c a se f or th e P ri so n er ’ s D i le mma ) , A t he ns , Au gu s t 21 s t t o 2 3 r d .
MEDIA INTERVENTIONS AND PUBLICATIONS
200 5
“T he Im por tan ce o f a P act ” ( w it h Ru be n Bra nc o ), i n J or n al d e N otíc i as , 7 t h of Fe bruary .
200 5
Gue st Spe ake r , i n “ C ons umer is m a nd S ol idar it y ” t alk s h o w , i n Radi o UC , 16 t h of Dece m ber .
PHONE: +351 912 206 887 ● E-MAIL: [email protected] ● WWW.PEDROBRINCA.PT