Alpargatas

Transcrição

Alpargatas
QUARTERLY EARNINGS REVIEW
Alpargatas
BBI Equity Research
Friday, May 6, 2016
In-line results with good flip flop volumes and prices in Brazil
•
•
•
•
9% consolidated revenues growth, with EBITDA +15% YoY
Volume and prices for flip-flops in Brazil.
International operations remained strong in constant currency, although
ARS devaluation took a toll.
Flip-flop trend is encouraging, while sporting goods remain a concern.
Brazilian operations posted top line growth in-line with our estimates, boosted by
flip-flops and Osklen. Despite the challenging outlook, Alpargatas posted a 7.6% YoY
growth in Brazilian division revenues (57% of total revenues), boosted by a welcome 9%
YoY volume increase for Havaianas flip-flops, while brand extension products again
delivered a strong performance (101.4% YoY) and Osklen posted a 5.4% YoY SSS
growth. Meanwhile, the positive results were partially offset by weaker performance from
the Mizuno brand (volumes -22.1% YoY), as the company’s higher pricing was not
followed by competitors. As a result, gross margin was positively impacted by the larger
share of Havaianas flip-flops in total sales (73%, vs. 66% in 1Q15).
International operations good performance due to the weaker BRL against the
USD, while Argentine peso devaluation impacted results from this division.
Alpargatas was able to deliver strong performance from international operations (both in
local currencies and BRL), reporting +23.7% YoY growth. Sales from the Argentine
division were negatively impacted by a 50% weaker ARS against the BRL, coming in 6.5% below our number, at R$198mn.
COMPANY REPORT
Alpargatas’ consolidated operational results were in line with our numbers, while
EPS beat our estimates by 2%. Adjusted EBITDA was consistent with our estimate, at
R$192mn, although lower-than-expected financial expenses led to a 2% positive
surprise in adjusted EPS (+7% YoY).
Alpargatas
(ALPA4)
Consumer & Retail
Neutral
Target Price: R$10.50
Upside: 12%
130
110
90
70
50
30
10
May-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Ibovespa
Mar-16
Alpargatas
Ricardo Boiati - 55 11 2178 5326
[email protected]
Luiz Felipe Guanais - 55 11 2178 4190
[email protected]
Raquel Erzinian - 55 11 2178 5319
[email protected]
We are keeping our Neutral rating given the still-challenging outlook for the
domestic market. While the 1Q16 results in Brazil showed a welcome improvement in
flip-flop volumes, the challenging macro outlook for footwear retail persists, which should
take a toll on sell-out in the coming quarters. Meanwhile, the gloomy performance in the
sporting goods segment, as well as Argentine peso’s weakness against the BRL, should
continue to weigh on the company’s results.
1Q16
(BRL m n)
Net Revenues
Adj.EBITDA
Reported
1,012
A/E
-2%
QoQ %
-11%
YoY %
9%
192
0%
33%
15%
19.0%
39 b.p.
621 b.p.
98 b.p.
Adj. Net earnings
121
2%
28%
7%
Adj. EPS (BRL)
0.26
2%
28%
5%
Adj. EBITDA mg.
2014A
2015A
2016E
2017E
EPS (R$)
(BRL m n)
0.60
0.61
0.94
1.13
Local price
Net earnings
280
287
435
522
ADR
Reported EBITDA
434
567
619
732
Price range - 52 w eeks (R$)
Shareholders' equity
1,998
2,160
2,443
2,782
Shares out. (mn)
ROE %
14%
17%
18%
19%
3-month ADTV (R$mn)
P/E
15.5
12.1
10.0
8.3
Market cap (R$mn)
EV/EBITDA
10.2
8.8
6.7
5.6
EV (R$mn)
P/BV
2.2
2.0
1.8
1.6
Net debt R$mn*
5.3%
2.9%
3.5%
4.2%
Dividend yield %
Key Figures
Net debt/EBITDA (LTM)
6-May-16
9.37
n.a
6.34 - 10.59
463.7
4.3
4,345
4,575
1
231
0.4
* As reported by the company
Bradesco Corretora – Av. Paulista, 1.450 – 7th floor – Sao Paulo – Brazil – 55 11 3556-3001
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COMPANY REPORT
BBI Equity Research – Friday, May 6, 2016
Conference Call Details:
Portuguese
May 9, 5:00 p.m. (Brazil) / 4:00 p.m. (US, EST)
Dial-in number: +55 (11) 3193-1001 / +55 (11) 2820-4001
Conference ID: Alpargatas
English:
May 11, 12:00 noon. (Brazil) / 11:00 a.m. (US, EST)
Dial-in number: +55 (11) 3193-1001 / +1 (786) 924-6977
Conference ID: Alpargatas
Company release: link
To maintain comparability, we considered results from continuing operations only
(excluding Topper and Rainha in Brazil).
Figure 1: Alpargatas’s 1Q16 Earnings Results – Continuing Operations
P&L - R$mn
1Q16A
1Q16E
4Q15A
1Q15A
Var. %
QoQ
A/E
Var. %
YoY
Net Revenues
1,012
1,034
1,132
926
-2%
-11%
9%
Gross Margin
48.1%
46.4%
42.2%
45.3%
166bps
585bps
275bps
-29.1%
-30.1%
-30.7%
-30.0%
93bps
161bps
84bps
(22)
(16)
(40)
(8)
40%
-46%
168%
-2.1%
-1.5%
-3.5%
-0.9%
-65bps
140bps
-127bps
SG&A as % of Net Revenue
Other operating expenses
% of Net Revenues
Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA Margin
192
192
144
166
19.0%
18.6%
12.8%
18.0%
(23)
0%
33%
15%
39bps
621bps
98bps
104%
Net Financial Result
(21)
(22)
(11)
-4%
-7%
Net income
118
104
55
102
13%
114%
16%
11.7%
10.1%
4.9%
11.0%
161bps
681bps
71bps
13%
114%
14%
2%
28%
7%
48bps
359bps
-21bps
2%
28%
5%
Net Margin (%)
EPS (R$)
0.25
0.22
0.12
0.22
Adjusted Net income 1
121
119
95
113
12.0%
11.5%
8.4%
12.2%
0.26
0.25
0.20
0.24
Adjusted Net Margin (%)
Adjusted EPS (R$)
Source: Company and Bradesco BBI estimates
1 Adjusted for non-recurring items
2
COMPANY REPORT
BBI Equity Research – Friday, May 6, 2016
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Bradesco Corretora research ratings distribution
Rating
Definition
Coverage¹
BR²
Outperform
Expected to outperform the analyst coverage list
37%
100%
Neutral
Expected to perform in the range of the analyst coverage list
52%
98%
Underperform
Expected to underperform the analyst coverage list
7%
89%
Under Review
This indicates that both the target price and the rating are currently being revised.
4%
100%
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The analyst cannot express his/her view s on the company.
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0%
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COMPANY REPORT
BBI Equity Research – Friday, May 6, 2016
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4
Bradesco Corretora Research Team
Director of Research
Daniel Altm an, CFA
1 646 432 6657
daltman@bradesco securities.co m
55 112178 4275
dalto n@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Econom ics
Dalton Gardim am
(Chief Eco no mist)
Bernardo Keiserman
55 112178 4272
bernardo .keiserman@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Banking and Financial Services
Tarik Migliorini
55 112178 4230
tarik.miglio rini@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Lucas Duarte
55 112178 4778
lucas.duarte@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Bruno Arruda
55 112178 5310
bruno .arruda@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Telecom , Media and Technology
Rafael Frade, CFA
55 112178 4056
rafaelf@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Luis Azevedo
55 112178 5321
luis.azevedo @bradesco bbi.co m.br
Gabriel Gusan, CFA
55 112178 5329
gabriel.gusan@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Tales Freire, CFA
55 112178 4527
tales@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Alain Nicolau
54 112178 5316
alain@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Luis Azevedo
55 112178 5321
luis.azevedo @bradesco bbi.co m.br
Tales Freire, CFA
55 112178 4527
tales@bradesco bbi.co m.br
55 112178 5326
rbo iati@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Altair Pereira
55 112178 4279
altair@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Caio Lombardi
55 112178 4225
lo mbardi@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Education
Healthcare
Rafael Frade, CFA
55 112178 4056
rafaelf@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Gabriel Gusan, CFA
55 112178 5329
gabriel.gusan@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Consum er Goods and Retail
Steel, Mining, Pulp & Paper
Ricardo Boiati
Alan Glezer, CFA
55 112178 5466
alanglezer@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Arthur Suelotto, CFA
55 112178 6104
arthur.suelo tto @bradesco bbi.co m.br
Transportation, Logistics and Capital Goods
Victor Mizusaki
55 112178 5327
victo r.mizusaki@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Leandro Fontanesi
55 112178 4274
leandro .fo ntanesi@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Fixed Incom e
Food, Beverages & Agribusiness
Gabriel Lim a
55 112178 5313
gabriel.lima@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Real Estate (RE Brokers, Hom ebuilding, M&P and REITs)
Luiz Mauricio Garcia
55 112178 4223
lmgarcia@bradesco bbi.co m.br
André Mazini
55 112178 5109
andre.mazini@bradesco bbi.co m.br
Each analyst w hose nam e is in bold print is the principal analyst responsible for the content of reports on the respective sector, as w ell as fulfillm ent of the
provisions of Art. 16 of CVM Instruction 483/10.
Bradesco Corretora CTVM S.A. | São Paulo
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dewayne@bradesco securities.co m
Paulo Pereira
paulo .pereira@bradesco securities.co m
Sales - Fixed Incom e – (852) 2251 8718
Vielcka Mansukhani
Vielcka@bradesco securities.co m
João Paulo Loyola
jplo yo la@bradesco securities.co m
Amex Lee
amexlee@bradesco securities.co m
Sales - Fixed Incom e – 01 212 888 9143
Gustavo Miw a
gustavo @bradesco securities.co m
Brent Matson
brent@bradesco securities.co m
Leonardo Jafet
ljafet@bradesco securities.co m
Bradesco Securities UK, Ltd
Sales – 44 207 382 0070
Sales Trading – 01 212 888 9141
Christopher Barresi
cbarresi@bradesco securities.co m
Sean Harte
sean@bradesco securities.co m
Syndicate Desk – 01 646 432 6642
Marcelo Cabral
mcabral@bradesco securities.co m
Robert Hulme
rhulme@bradesco securities.co m
Sales - Fixed Incom e – 44 207 382 0074
Shin Fukui
shin@bradesco securities.co m
Guilherme Zraick
gzraick@bradesco securities.co m
David Pereira
david@bradesco securities.co m
Sebastian Almquist Tangen
salmquist-tangen@bradesco securities.co m
Av. Paulista, 1450 7º andar
CEP: 01310-917 São Paulo – SP

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