Artigos de Bancos Centrais e BIS REUNIÃO DE

REUNIÃO DE CONJUNTURA
22/08/2016
Artigos de Bancos Centrais e BIS
Benoît Cœuré and Ashley Alder: Further strengthening the resilience of financial plumbing 1
Manuel Sánchez: Mexico - economic integration, challenges and outlook .................................. 3
Pronunciamento do Presidente Ilan Goldfajn na Abertura do XI Seminário Anual sobre
Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária ..................................................................... 7
Benoît Cœuré and Ashley Alder: Further strengthening the resilience of
financial plumbing
Op-ed by Mr Benoît Cœuré, Chair of the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures (CPMI)
and Mr Ashley Alder, Chair of the Board of the International Organization of Securities Commissions
(IOSCO), published in the Financial Times under the title “Systemic derivatives reforms require
greater vigilance”, 16 August 2016.
***
When Group of 20 leaders gather in China next month, an item for discussion will be how to further
strengthen the resilience of some important “fixtures” in the plumbing of the financial system.
In the lead-up to the G20 summit, the Committee on Payments and Market Infrastructures and the
International Organization of Securities Commissions have published two reports that shed light on
the system’s current ability to recover from shocks and provide suggestions on valves or taps that
need to be tightened or replaced.
Before the financial crisis, clearing and settlement of over-the-counter derivatives, such as credit
default swaps, was a byzantine mess of bilateral obligations with poor risk management and no
genuine transparency on exposures for either participants or authorities.
As mandated by the G20 in 2009, most OTC derivatives trades now pass through a gobetween, a socalled central counter party (CCP), or clearing house, for example LCH, Eurex Clearing and CME
Group. It becomes the buyer to every seller and the seller to every buyer, reducing the risk to
individual banks or asset managers, providing clarity on exposures, and optimising the amount of
collateral to be posted against them.
Although some argue that increased use of CCPs amounts to “putting all your eggs in one basket”
and that they have become the new “risk monsters” of the financial system, the situation that
prevailed pre-crisis was manifestly more risky, complex and opaque.
We saw this with the failure of Lehman Brothers. The issue is not whether CCPs concentrate risks
(they do) but how well they manage their risks, including risks they pose to others, and the extent to
which they are a source of strength during market stress.
Our joint Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures published in 2012 set out risk management
guidelines to promote robust CCPs and other “fixtures” such as payment and settlement systems and
central securities depositories.
We are now working to make sure that the principles are not only adhered to around the world but
also applied in an even manner to level the playing field. We are providing more detailed guidance
based on industry feedback, lessons learned and emerging best practices.
These “twin” reports are the latest manifestations of this work. The first one assesses how a global
sample of CCPs have put the principles into practice. Our analysis shows that CCPs have made
important and meaningful progress in applying the principles, but also identifies a number of gaps
and shortcomings.
These include – in some cases – insufficient planning when a member firm defaults on its obligations,
inadequate procedures to maintain minimum financial resources at all times, and deficiencies in
testing liquidity stresses. All CCPs should review the lessons in the report in light of their own
operations and risk management practices. Any shortcomings should be addressed urgently.
1
The second seeks industry feedback on more detailed guidance on how CCPs can further boost their
defences against shocks such as liquidity shortfalls or member defaults. This guidance includes
clearer expectations on the rigour of credit and liquidity stress tests used in determining the level of
financial resources that a CCP should maintain and on a CCP’s contribution of its own resources to
cover losses arising from a member default.
Importantly, the reports complement our other efforts to strengthen the infrastructure supporting
global financial markets, such as how to better protect these key fixtures against cyber risk. This
includes a goal of having critical services back up within two hours of a major cyber attack. We have
confidence in the industry’s ability, over time, to meet this ambitious requirement in a similar way that
it was able to achieve the same objective for physical disruptions.
We, along with the other stakeholders, are working to build a stronger and more robust plumbing
system for the global financial markets. It is clear to us that the risk of default cannot be eliminated
from the global financial system – to do so would imply unsustainable costs and severely restrict or
even prevent businesses from using derivatives to manage commercial and financial uncertainty.
So the aim is to limit the potential systemic risks arising from any default as much as possible by
encouraging central clearing and then applying a robust but proportionate approach to back up
financial buffers and risk control.
The industry has made great strides in improving the risk management of CCPs over the years, but
more work remains. As Mark Twain once said: “Put all your eggs in the one basket and – watch that
basket!”
2
Manuel Sánchez: Mexico - economic integration, challenges and outlook
Remarks by Mr Manuel Sánchez, Deputy Governor of the Bank of Mexico, at the United StatesMexico Chamber of Commerce, California Regional Chapter, Los Angeles, 5 August 2016.
***
It is certainly a pleasure to be back in Los Angeles to share my views with you on Mexico's economic
prospects. I would like to thank the California Regional Chapter of the United States-Mexico
Chamber of Commerce for the kind invitation.
I will organize my presentation in three parts. First, I will briefly discuss Mexico's growing and very
dynamic partnership with the United States. I will follow with a focus on growth and financial
developments for the Mexican economy, in conjunction with these close ties. And finally, I will make
some comments on inflation and monetary policy in Mexico.
As usual, my remarks are entirely my own and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Bank of
Mexico or its Governing Board.
Economic integration with the U.S.
A natural starting point for this discussion is the tight relationship between our two countries. Mexico
is increasingly linked to the United States, through high levels of bilateral exports and imports,
significant FDI and technology transfers, and substantial remittances, among other channels. These
bonds have yielded dividends on both sides of the border, including business and job creation, wider
and more advantageous consumer choices, and higher living standards.¹
California, home of a long border and migration history with Mexico, is one of the country's most
important trade and cultural partners. Merchandise trade has expanded continuously through recent
years. Mexico and California, the world's sixth largest economy, both gain greatly from these mutually
beneficial exchanges.
One of the most profound and longstanding links between Mexico and the United States comes
through tightly integrated industrial operations. This is more than clear in the high correlation between
U.S. industrial and Mexican manufacturing data over time.
Recently, structural reforms undertaken by Mexico have opened up even more opportunities for the
two countries. The overall reform agenda is extremely ambitious, encompassing broader and greater
access to telecom services via more competition, an unprecedented opening of the energy sector to
private investment, and changes to rules governing the labor market. However, its ultimate
effectiveness obviously depends on the quality and depth of implementation over the coming years.²
In any case, some of the reforms are indeed in their first phase of implementation, and they have
likely only begun to produce results. Furthermore, the advantages they bring could very well be
enhanced down the road through a more effective rule of law, better public security, and
improvement to Mexico's physical infrastructure.
Growth and financial developments
Let me move on to the second part of this talk, which covers shorter-term developments. On a yearon-year basis, since 2014 Mexico's GDP has grown at an average rate of 2.3 percent, not far from
the historical performance, with a dip occurring in the second quarter this year.
Behind this relatively stable backdrop in the past two and a half years, two opposing forces have
been at play. Momentum in services has been offset by a slowdown in industrial production.
3
Softening industrial output in Mexico seems to result from two shocks. One is falling oil extraction due
to the near depletion of Pemex's most profitable oil fields. The other is slowing U.S. industrial
production. Consistent with this panorama, manufacturing exports to the United States have been on
the downswing, aggravating the drag exerted by low demand for Mexican products from other
countries.
U.S. manufacturing appears to have a larger impact on Mexican exports to the U.S. than does the
bilateral exchange rate. Econometric estimates for the long-term behavior of Mexican manufacturing
exports to its northern neighbor point toward an elasticity to U.S. manufacturing production almost
four times as high as that for the bilateral real exchange rate.³
However, a weaker peso may be partly responsible for the fact that Mexican exports have captured
greater U.S. market share. For example, in the last four and a half years, the share of Mexico's
automotive exports in total U.S. automotive imports has increased by almost five percentage points.
Private consumption has been a driver of economic expansion, partly compensating for the loss of
steam from external demand. Consumption growth seems to have been supported by several
factors, including improvement in labor market indicators.
Since 2012, the unemployment rate has fallen from five percent to less than four percent, close to the
long-term average. Note that this improvement has occurred in conjunction with relatively stable labor
force participation. Additional favorable factors are foreign remittances and consumer lending,
exhibiting an almost coincident rebound with consumption.
Investment, on the other hand, is contracting, sending up a warning sign on possibilities for future
improvement. Also, forward-looking indicators such as purchasing managers' indexes for both
manufacturing and nonmanufacturing are declining, with the latter breaching the contractionary zone.
As is the case in the United States, Mexico is expected to face a slowdown this year, while growth
next year should pick up moderately.⁴
Mexico's growth scenario faces risks. The world economy may decelerate further, affecting U.S.
prospects. A greater-than-expected slowdown in U.S. imports and industrial production could hurt the
outlook for Mexico. Also on the radar are weaker consumer and producer confidence, a worse-thanexpected drop in crude oil output, and potentially more volatile financial markets, which could bring
constraints for financing in both the public and private spheres. To the upside, structural reforms
might yield more benefits.
In financial markets, since the middle of 2014, an international trend toward greater risk aversion has
hurt emerging markets in particular. In emerging economies, the financial variable most affected has
been the exchange rate, with a tendency toward generalized depreciation against the U.S. dollar. To
date this year, the Mexican peso has been hit harder than other currencies in this group. The obvious
question is why this has been so.
Exacerbated peso depreciation may stem from several factors. One is the role of the Mexican peso,
the most traded currency among emerging economies, as an international hedge mechanism.
Increased risk aversion has been a constant for currencies, bonds and other investments in the last
couple of years, and investors appear to have latched onto the tactic of shorting the Mexican peso as
an easy way to hedge their risks when other emerging-market assets face headwinds.⁵
Another factor, however, is Mexico's weakened fiscal position. The nation has seen a longstanding
rising trend in overall public-sector debt over GDP. Additionally, Pemex net oil export revenues have
dropped drastically.
4
A stronger fiscal stance is necessary given a historic balance of public-sector borrowing requirements
that has grown 14 percentage points relative to GDP in a matter of just a little more than seven years.
This situation is more critical given the worsening of Pemex finances and the persistence of low oil
prices, with widening negative net income in the state-owned company. The difference between
revenues and expenditures maps very closely the rising oil deficit in Mexico's current account.⁶
Finally, holdings of peso government securities by nonresidents have fallen lately, driven by drops in
those of short maturities. This bears watching, given that further bouts of international financial
volatility could easily occur.
On the world stage, in the wake of Brexit, deeper monetary accommodation is foreseen in most
developed countries. Partly as a result, leverage is rising worldwide. Furthermore, the perception of
the low effectiveness of monetary policy in terms of intended goals may hurt its credibility.⁷
A highly unusual characteristic of the overall scenario is that advanced nations are saddled with
increasing proportions of public and private debt with negative yields. Geopolitical jitters will likely
continue. Also, European banks suffer not only from squeezed margins in light of the low and
negative interest-rate environment, but also from weak balance sheets. Finally, doubts over the
sustainability of the Chinese economic recovery and policy interventions there persist.
Monetary policy and inflation
Let us now focus on monetary policy and inflation in Mexico. Since last year, annual inflation has
remained moderate. For 15 consecutive months, it has been below the 3 percent target. This is
unprecedented and calls for consolidation of the trend.
This benign result has been supported by unusually low noncore price increases, including soft
international agricultural and domestic government-determined prices. On the other hand, core
inflation has been rising gradually, reflecting the effect of peso depreciation on tradable goods prices.
This is very clearly shown by the behavior of merchandise inflation. Additionally, an accelerating rise
in the producer price index also reveals an impact from peso weakening.
Medium-term inflation expectations, as measured by analysts' surveys, have remained relatively
stable, albeit above the target. Market-derived expectations appear to show a recent spike.⁸
In this context, monetary policy has been preemptive, with interest rate hikes seeking to avert
deviations of inflation expectations and to anchor them on the target, particularly in the face of
significant peso depreciation. The resulting flattening of the yield curve seems to reflect confidence
that inflation will continue to be contained.
It is worth emphasizing that the Bank of Mexico does not target any level of the exchange rate. Its
primary objective is maintaining low inflation, and Mexico adheres to a freely floating exchange-rate
regime. This does not mean that movements in the exchange rate have no impact on inflation. In
fact, as mentioned, moderate pass-through has occurred from the exchange rate to consumer prices,
concentrated in durable goods. But this may change, and monetary policy should remain vigilant.
Some risks to the consolidation of convergence of inflation to the 3 percent permanent target prevail.
The most notable danger is more weakening of the peso with a generalized impact on prices,
knocking inflation expectations off track. Also, rises in noncore prices could accelerate, returning to
historic rates, possibly producing second-round price effects. Finally, given uncertainty on the level of
potential GDP, aggregate demand pressures could surface.
Conclusions
5
Over the course of many years, Mexico and the United States have benefited from increased
integration, both cultural and economic. Mexican economic activity, however, has recently
decelerated and confronts downside risks, among them, the possibility that the U.S. industrial
sector's performance will turn out to be softer than anticipated.
Other dangers are weaker consumer and producer confidence, a steeper-than-expected fall in oil
output, and possibly more volatile financial markets. The latter might squelch financing for the
government and private firms.
Greater risk aversion could become exacerbated by geopolitical events. In this context, Mexico's
fiscal stance should be fortified, and its monetary policy must continue to employ complete flexibility
in order to consolidate the convergence of inflation to the permanent target, thereby shielding the
economy with stronger macroeconomic fundamentals.
1 For a discussion of the U.S.-Mexico economic relationship, see Villarreal, M.A. (2015). U.S.Mexico Economic Relations: Trends, Issues, and Implications. Washington, DC: Congressional
Research Service, pp. 1-9.
2 For an online progress report on Mexico's structural reforms, see Presidencia de la República,
Reformas en Acción, http://reformas.gob.mx.
3 For an econometric estimation of the effects of U.S. manufacturing production and the bilateral real
exchange rate on Mexico's manufacturing exports to that country, see Banco de México (2016).
Quarterly Report October - December 2015, Box 1.
4 See IMEF, (2016). "Indicador IMEF del Entorno Empresarial Mexicano (IIEEM)," July. Analysts'
estimates for GDP in the United States and Mexico are, respectively, 1.9 and 2.3 percent in 2016,
and 2.2 and 2.6 percent in 2017. See Consensus Forecasts and Latin American Consensus
Forecasts, July 2016.
5 See BIS (2014). "Triennial Central Bank Survey of foreign exchange and derivatives market
activity in 2013," detailed tables.
6 See SHCP (2016). Informes sobre la Situación Económica, las Finanzas Públicas y la Deuda
Pública, Segundo trimestre de 2016.
7 See BIS (2016). BIS Statistical Bulletin, June, Table F2.3.
8 See Banco de México (2016). "Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía
del Sector Privado: Julio de 2016," August.
6
Pronunciamento do Presidente Ilan Goldfajn na Abertura do XI Seminário
Anual sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária
São Paulo, 12 de agosto de 2016.
***
Senhoras e senhores, bom dia.
É com grande satisfação que, em nome do Banco Central do Brasil, lhes dou as boas-vindas ao
décimo primeiro Seminário Anual sobre Riscos, Estabilidade Financeira e Economia Bancária.
Estou certo que nesta edição, da mesma forma que nas anteriores, colheremos bons frutos do
debate de ideias e da troca experiências havida nesses três dias.
Na pessoa do Diretor Carlos Viana, agradeço a todos os servidores do Banco Central que
trabalharam com afinco para o sucesso desse evento.
Agradeço o Professor Iftekhar Hasan, Editor do Journal of Financial Stability, pela parceria de vários
anos com o Banco Central do Brasil na realização deste evento. Agradeço também aos
moderadores e aos expositores, que se dispuseram a compartilhar seus conhecimentos e suas
experiências.
---------Daqui a aproximadamente um mês, completaremos oito anos do início da fase mais aguda da crise
financeira internacional desencadeada pela quebra do Lehman Brothers.
Nesse período, a comunidade internacional empreendeu uma reforma sem precedentes nos
arcabouços regulatórios que regem os sistemas financeiros globais e locais.
Mesmo em meio a crises econômicas que atingiram várias economias, os sistemas financeiros
evoluíram e hoje, de modo geral, se encontram mais sólidos e mais resilientes a choques.
No Brasil, o sistema financeiro nacional mostrou sua resiliência frente ao choque global.
Na qualidade de ator internacional, o Banco Central do Brasil apoiou essa evolução e implementou
medidas que ajudaram a manter a solidez do Sistema Financeiro Nacional, mesmo frente a um
cenário econômico desafiador, tanto no plano doméstico, quanto na dimensão internacional.
Passada quase uma década de reformas regulatórias, acredito que há consenso na comunidade
internacional de que a agenda regulatória pós-crise financeira global está praticamente concluída.
Daqui para frente, ao mesmo tempo em que parte dessas reformas será implantada, seguindo o
cronograma já divulgado, será tempo de avaliar seus efeitos e, se for o caso, promover os ajustes
finos nos padrões já estabelecidos.
Quero aqui falar de alguns temas relacionados à estabilidade financeira e economia bancária, mais
especificamente, sobre arranjos de pagamento, cidadania financeira, inovações tecnológicas e,
especialmente, sobre a eficiência no sistema financeiro.
Nesse período, especialmente nos últimos anos, o Banco Central também esteve diretamente
envolvido com o desenvolvimento da indústria de pagamentos no Brasil. Um dos mais importantes
marcos nessa trajetória foi a edição da Lei 12.865, em 2013, que direcionou ao Banco Central a
regulação e a supervisão dos arranjos de pagamento.
7
Desde sua edição, o Banco Central vem atuando no sentido de organizar esse mercado de forma a
estimular mais competição entre os participantes, visando assim atender aos princípios e a cumprir
os objetivos trazidos pela lei. Desenvolver o sistema de pagamentos nessa direção é um desafio
compartilhado entre o regulador e o mercado.
A partir de meados da década passada um grande contingente de cidadãos foi incorporado ao
sistema financeiro.
O Banco Central tem dado especial atenção a questões de inclusão financeira e a mudanças no
Sistema Financeiro Nacional para melhor atender a novos públicos.
A capilaridade hoje é muito mais ampla, tornando o acesso quase universal.
Ainda há muito espaço para evolução de aspectos fundamentais de cidadania financeira,
especialmente quanto à educação e à proteção financeira da população.
Hoje, tenho a satisfação de dizer que o Sistema Financeiro Nacional está bem capitalizado, líquido,
bem provisionado, competitivo e mais inclusivo. Nosso papel é preservar essas características à
frente, sob diferentes cenários.
Para preservar essa solidez e ampliar a sua eficiência, estamos também acompanhando de perto as
inovações tecnológicas que vêm se incorporando a esse sistema com grande rapidez.
Esse é um tema fascinante que ganhará cada vez mais proeminência.
O ritmo acelerado de inovações tecnológicas no segmento financeiro impõe a todos os bancos
centrais e reguladores do mundo o desafio de avaliar proativamente as repercussões que tais
inovações terão na forma de se fazer negócios.
Se por um lado esse novo ambiente pode trazer mais eficiência, por outro, também traz consigo
novos riscos, tais como, por exemplo, a exposição a ataques cibernéticos, que merece hoje atenção
global.
Devido a sua velocidade e intensidade, os impactos das inovações tecnológicas são difíceis de
mensurar. Por isso, a abordagem que estamos adotando é estudar de forma organizada as
inovações que vêm se consolidando, procurando não inibir sua evolução com requisitos regulatórios
precoces.
Nossa intenção é entender como elas estão se desenvolvendo e mapear os riscos potenciais de
cada uma delas. Conhecendo-as melhor, seremos mais capazes de regulá-las sem eliminar os
ganhos de eficiência que elas poderão trazer à indústria financeira.
Eficiência é uma palavra-chave para a atuação do Banco Central como regulador e como supervisor
do Sistema Financeiro Nacional. Não custa lembrar que parte importante de nossa missão
institucional é assegurar a solidez, mas também a eficiência desse sistema.
Além das dimensões de eficiência que já mencionei – competitividade, cidadania financeira e
inovações tecnológicas – será importante caminharmos na direção de reformas microeconômicas
que reduzam distorções e evitem intervenções demasiadas, aumentando a eficiência dos mercados
de forma a: (i) reduzir o custo de crédito, (ii) aumentar a potência dos mecanismos de transmissão
da política monetária e (iii) criar as condições para o desenvolvimento de um mercado de capitais
plenamente capaz de financiar investimentos produtivos de longo prazo.
8
Ademais, é preciso reconhecer que a interação entre a política monetária e a solidez e a eficiência
do sistema financeiro age nas duas direções.
Se por um lado um sistema financeiro sólido e eficiente diminui os custos necessários da política
monetária para alcançar seus objetivos, por outro, a boa condução dessa política favorece o bom
funcionamento do sistema ao oferecer aos intermediários financeiros um ambiente mais estável e
menos incerto.
---------Senhoras e senhoras,
O Sistema Financeiro Nacional está sólido, líquido, bem capitalizado e resiliente a choques. É nosso
papel mantê-lo assim. Dessa forma, acreditamos que o Sistema Financeiro contribuirá para a
recuperação sustentável da economia brasileira.
É fundamental que o Sistema Financeiro exerça sua função clássica de intermediador entre
poupadores e investidores, alocando de maneira eficiente recursos financeiros para fins produtivos e
para o consumo, agindo assim como alavanca para a recuperação econômica..
Como tenho afirmado em declarações recentes, o elemento mais essencial para a recuperação
econômica sustentável será a retomada da confiança.
Para isso, é necessário, em primeiro lugar, fortalecer o velho e bom tripé macroeconômico formado
por responsabilidade fiscal, controle da inflação e regime de câmbio flutuante.
No lado fiscal, cuja importância para a retomada da confiança não pode ser relativizada, teremos
hoje a oportunidade de ouvir o Ministro Henrique Meirelles, que foi convidado a fazer o
encerramento da décima primeira edição desse seminário.
Do lado do Banco Central, contribuiremos pela via do controle da inflação, que ajudará na redução
do risco país, na recuperação da confiança e na retomada do crescimento, e pela via do respeito ao
regime de câmbio flutuante, que tantas vezes mostrou seu valor no papel de estabilizador frente a
choques.
Nesse sentido, reafirmo aqui o nosso compromisso com as metas de inflação em todo o horizonte
relevante para a política monetária, em particular, o processo de convergência para a meta de 4,5%
em 2017.
Como é de se esperar na administração do regime de metas de inflação, estamos dando grande
atenção à comunicação institucional e ao gerenciamento das expectativas. Isso é fundamental e um
trabalho contínuo.
A nossa comunicação tem deixado clara a importância das expectativas de mercado e as nossas
projeções para a administração desse regime. Afinal, é olhando para o futuro que a política
monetária é balizada.
Mas não se deve tomar essas variáveis como únicas para as decisões de política monetária. Há
diversos fatores que afetam a perspectiva para a inflação, vários deles apontados no balanço de
riscos na última ata do Copom.
O Copom toma suas decisões baseado em um amplo conjunto de informações e de modelos
proprietários, que culmina na avaliação subjetiva e discricionária de seus membros, a cada reunião.
9
Resumindo, não há um modelo ou variável que determine isolada e automaticamente as decisões
de política monetária.
Em relação ao câmbio flutuante, temos afirmado que o Banco Central, quando julgar necessário e
sem ferir as premissas desse regime, utilizará com parcimônia as ferramentas cambiais de que
dispõe. Nesse sentido, poderá reduzir sua exposição cambial em determinado instrumento em ritmo
compatível com o normal funcionamento do mercado, quando e se estiverem presentes as
adequadas condições. Um exemplo claro dessa atuação tem sido a redução gradual da nossa
posição em swaps cambiais, motivada pelas condições no mercado.
O cenário internacional oferece hoje um interregno benigno de liquidez ampla e alguma recuperação
do crescimento que beneficia no curto prazo as economias emergentes. Acreditamos que devemos
ter cautela e não tomarmos a atual situação como necessariamente permanente, pois há riscos a
frente que podem ameaçar, de um lado, o atual crescimento modesto e, de outro, a disponibilidade
da liquidez global.
---------Senhoras e senhores,
O cenário nacional e internacional ainda se apresenta bem mais desafiador do que a média
histórica.
No Brasil, será de fundamental importância a aprovação e a implementação de ajustes e reformas
capazes de restaurar a confiança dos agentes econômicos e de criar as condições para a
recuperação econômica com baixa inflação.
É diante desse pano de fundo que o Banco Central trabalhará para cumprir sua missão institucional
e, consequentemente, contribuir para o desenvolvimento do país.
Agradeço pela atenção e desejo um bom dia a todos.
10