BUY: CADU-14

Transcrição

BUY: CADU-14
Mar. 18, 2015
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
19 de marzo de 2015
CADU demonstrates a constant growth in revenues and
house units sold in the midst of a challenging
environment for Mexican homebuilders. The Company
operates under limited cash availability but shows
capacity to meet its financial obligations
BUY: CADU-14
Fitch: A+(mex)
Moody’s: Ba.3
YTM : 5.18%
Rate: TIIE 28 + 2.50%
1. Fundamentals
This publication assesses CADU’s credit capacity regarding its CBs - CADU 12, &
CADU 14, and does not make any attempt to recommend any new debt notes of
the company as of today. In fact, at the time of releasing this report, the Company
announced through the Mexican Stock Market its intention to issue a new bond,
partly intended to refinance part of its liabilities.
We initiate CADUs (The Company) debt coverage with a Fundamental Buy
recommendation supporting our investment thesis on the Company’s ability to meet its
financial obligations and its growth record. The company faces limited liquidity due to
the nature of the business but it presents sufficient capacity to carry out its remaining
amortization payment of CADU 12 and additional interest in the upcoming months
regarding CADU 14 and bank credits. Considering the operational cash flow estimated
for the next 3 years, and additional financing, there will be sufficient resources to cover
dividend, interest payments and amortizations. A history of steady growth; ample land
reserves, a debt guarantee for both issuances and strong covenants support our
recommendation.
By the end of 2014, the company had a cash equivalent of MP $282 mn, which assures
its ability to fully pay interest and amortize the outstanding MP $150 mn of CADU 12,
plus additional short term bank credit interests. However, in the past, the company has
depended on new issuances and renewal of bank credits to have sufficient cash flow to
meet all of its financial obligations and CAPEX. The company will most likely have to
issue new notes and/or refinance bank credits to pay future interests and amortizations,
as it has done before. At the moment, the company is under a tight but manageable
cash flow margin; it is important to keep in mind that if new financing becomes limited,
the company will be under distress to pay future obligations.
Table. 1. Key Financial Indicators(P$ mm)
Net Sales
EBITDA
Operating Income
Net Income
Net Operating Cash Flow
Cash at EoP
CADU reported an annual growth of 22.6% in net sales and 14% growth in house units
sold last year, while for 2015, we estimate a growth of 7% and 8% in revenues and
house units, respectively. These are greater than what the construction sector is
expected to grow (3%) and the number of credits the INFONAVIT will grant (3.6%)
during the year. Revenues and house sold growths can be supported by the fact that
CADU focuses its projects in places where demand for credits is greater than the
national average, and thus, greater construction investments. Also, the growth in sales
is based on undergoing projects that were started in the last quarter of 2014 and will be
ready to be commercialized within the first semester of 2015.
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
2015e
3,421,207
519,670
511,292
346,358
82,085
111,240
2016e
3,763,328
571,804
562,422
384,639
118,111
72,641
2017e
4,139,661
629,173
618,664
429,489
124,675
94,533
CADU’s CBs
*Ticker
Rtng
Mrty
OutS.
CADU 12
A+/AApr-15
150m
CADU 14
A+/AJul-17
300m
See CBs Details Under section 2a
Spread
4.00%
2.50%
*Ticker/Rating/Maturity/Outstanding Amount/Spread over
TIIE 28
Index:
1.
2.
3.
Table 1 shows our CADUs principal financial indicators, including net operational cash
flow estimates for the next 3 years as well as cash available at the end of the period. As
of 2015, annual available cash is expected to surpass MP $111mn, in 2016 MP $72 mn,
and MP $94 mn in 2017. The proposed financial forecast takes into consideration
greater net operating cash flow for the upcoming years. This allows the company to
reduce its leverage and become less dependent of external financing sources, and still
be able to meet all debt obligations (See Section 3 – CADU’s Financial Forecasts). The
financial forecasts proposed herein have been stressed with respect to the company’s
guidance.
2014
3,197,390
506,386
498,906
343,386
-116,387
282,094
4.
5.
6.
Fundamentals and Investment Risks
CADU, The Company:
a. Financing Sources and Debt
Maturity Profile
b. Debt Leverage.
c. Covenants related to CADU’s
notes.
d. Credit Ratings
CADU,s Cash Flow– Actinver’s financial
forecasts
Industry Analysis:
a. Background – The Housing
Sector.
b. Sector Perspective
c. Macroeconomic Scenario
Bond Valuations
Relative Value
Annex:
A. Financial Projections
Raúl Márquez Pardinas
Análisis de Renta Fija
[email protected]
1
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
CADU has the capability to adapt to the economic circumstances, as it did in 2008-2009
with the global crisis. While major players in the housing sector remained in the old
housing model and/or in the residential segment, some of them went bankrupt, CADU
was able to change its business strategy to the low income segment and thrive. In the
last years, the company has been able to re-adapt housing prices, and slowly target the
mid class housing sector, which has started to reactivate (See The Company –
Business Strategy).
The company strategy continues to focus on the traditional low-income housing,
especially trough INFONAVIT credits, which will grow by 3.6% in 2015 (see
INFONAVITs credit grants plans). This, plus the company’s plan to raise the average
housing price to that of pre-crisis levels (See Company information), the revenues
margin should increase in the following years
.
Housing financing in Mexico, through FOVISSSTE and INFONAVIT credit loans, have
continued to grow in spite of periods of high volatility in financial markets, such as it was
in 2008 with the effects of the mortgage loans "subprime" crisis of the United States.
Also, in 2012, even with the change of political parties in the presidency, the loans by
these institutions showed a continued dynamism and adaptation.
In the last couple of years, there has been a re composition in housing demand; the
diversity of options to exercise a housing loan has improved loan’s conditions, which in
turn has increased the incentives to obtain credits, specially by the low income sector.
Taking into consideration the average household income, SHF estimates that for 2015
the demand of mortgage credits will grow by 5.3%, representing nearly 60,000 more
credits, compared to 2014.
CADUs main market is in the state of Quintana Roo as well as Aguascalientes and
Guanajuato; and while these convey some risks (See Risks Section – Geographical
Diversity), these are areas that have been growing and it is believed they will keep doing
so. On one hand, CADU targets workers associated to the tourism sector in that state; a
sector that contributes with most of the state’s GDP (See Background – Tourism in
Cancun). On the other hand, Aguascalientes and Guanajuato have seen an increase in
demand for INFONAVIT credits since 2006. By the end of 2014, CADU dominated the
market with a share of 47.4% in the state of Quintana Roo, composed of 45.1% in
Cancun and 59.0% in Playa del Carmen.
CADU’s CBs contain a partial guarantee provided by Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal
which provides for full recovery on 50% of the instrument's value in the event of default,
while the other 50% is effectively subordinated to secured debt in the Company's capital
structure.
The Company’s covenants set throughout the duration of its CBs demand the company
to maintain its financial indicators at least at certain levels. This incites a well-structured
and healthy business which reassures investor’s confidence. CADU has met with their
financial obligations up to this point, and we believe it will keep doing up to the maturity
of the bonds.
CADU’s ratings have been supported by its credit metrics and operating margins’
history; rated BBB+ by Fitch and B1 by Moody’s. The company operates under a fully
integrated business model, in which it does not utilize subcontractors, and has
demonstrated therefore better cost controls. Moreover, the company´s leading position
in its main market has also supported performance stability over time.
Plenty Land Reserve: the company has the strategy of maintaining 100% ownership of
its land reserves; unlike other homebuilders in Mexico that use partnershiMP with third
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
2
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
parties for the acquisition of land. This allows the company to have higher operating
margins than its competitors. At current production levels, the company currently has
sufficient territorial reserves for housing over the next four years. Additionally, the
current land reserve of the company complies with the requirements of both the
authority for housing unit developments and internal policies.
The housing and construction sector have seen a significant improvement since the
third quarter of 2014. In 2012, with the presidential elections and change of political
parties, the construction sector was impacted, however, at the current time; these
sectors report a higher recovery than the national GDP (See Macroeconomic Scenario
section), mainly due to a low base of comparison.
It is also important to keep a watch to the following factors that could severely affect the
company’s credit obligations:
Risk Associated with the Company and its CBs
Weak Liquidity & Low Cash Flows: Liquidity is weak mainly due to large debt
maturities in the upcoming months. As of December 31, 2014 CADU’s short-term debt
represented approximately 20% of total debt, which could create liquidity challenges if
not refinanced timely. In April 2014, the company paid down MXN 150 million out of
cash, related to a partial amortization of its CADU 12 notes. Also, part of the proceeds
from this issuance was directed to refinance bank debt. Although the Company reported
positive cash flow in the last quarter of 2014, it will still be pressured by around Mp
$270mn in bank debt maturities plus another 150 million associated to the amortization
of the second note issuance.
Heavy dependence from INFONAVIT: Virtually all funding for social housing in Mexico
has been awarded by INFONAVIT and as well as by the Government through SHF and
FOVISSSTE. 94.7% of loans to customers of the Company during 2014 were granted
by INFONAVIT. This presents a potential concern because if the take-out financing
delays, it could create liquidity pressures. However, according to INFONAVIT’s
estimations, the number of credits granted will continue to grow for the next years (See
Market information).
Land price-quality. As more house developers enter or expand their operations in the
field of housing, land prices may increase significantly and the availability of suitable
land could decline as a result of increased demand or decrease in supply. One of the
major challenges facing the company is the successful replenishment of the reserve
land under competitive conditions for future operation.
Geographical Diversity: Currently the company focuses on few but highly demanded
areas for the housing development sectors. Having the business concentrated in few
regions can cause volatility and cyclicality due to social, political or natural disasters. In
the past, Mexico has seen cities impacted by social factor such as violence, protests or
inadequate management by politicians. Also, the state of Quintana Roo is subject to
hurricanes, flooding and the other states face water shortage periods, earthquakes,
among other natural disasters.
None the less, it is important to keep in mind, that while a low geographical diversity
presents the risks mentioned above, it has also been a fundamental strategy of the
company’s growth since it prevents high expenses related to opening new positions.
Dependency of housing State Policies. The Mexican government exercises
significant influence over many aspects of the national economy. The Company
depends for a large part of their business, in the financing policies for housing,
especially regarding the funding and operation of governmental mortgage providers
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
3
Mar. 18, 2015
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
(INFONAVIT). Consequently, the actions of the Mexican government regarding the
economy, industry regulation, and setting policies for housing finance could have a
significant effect on private sector agencies in Mexico and just as much in their
securities performance in the market.
Possible decreased in profit margins. The selling price of homes could be affected by
the companies providing the credits (INFONAVIT, FOVISSTE, banks), as well as market
conditions (supply, demand and competitors). Therefore, if the Company does not
accurately estimate construction costs, materials, and labor to achieve target margins
and costs rise, the profitability could be adversely affected.
Increase in Interest Rates: Historically, in Mexico there have been recurrent economic
crisis, characterized by high inflation, instability in the exchange rate, high interest rates,
strong contraction in consumer demand, reduced availability of credit, increased
unemployment and declining investor confidence, among others. In the event that the
national economy falls into a recession, or an increase the interest rates occur, the
purchasing power and interest payment ability of consumers could be decreased
significantly. These scenarios could create a reduction in new loans and growth in the
overdue portfolio of INFONAVIT.
2. CADU, The Company
CADU is a holding company which together with its subsidiaries is vertically integrated
and engaged in the development of affordable housing. CADU is one of CORPOVAEL’s
subsidiaries, responsible for the development in the state of Quintana Roo, which is the
company’s most important region. Its activities include the design, development,
construction, promotion and sale of homes, mainly in the cities of Cancun and Playa del
Carmen, Quintana Roo, whereas of 2014, it had a market share of 39%. CADU has also
has presence in the states of Jalisco, Guanajuato, Estado de Mexico and
Aguascalientes (Graph 1).
While its strategy is to position itself as a leader in southeast Mexico and continue to
geographically diversify. The vertical integration of the group has granted flexibility and
lower construction times, as well as a considerable reduction in costs while maintaining
high profit margins of 15.6% for operational margins and 19.7% EDITDA margin (See
Company’s Key Financial Indicators). CADU maintains four years of land reserves for
new developments.
Business Strategies:
In 2008, as a result of the global economic crisis, foreseeing a possible contraction in
lending for house purchase by financial institutions, the Company's strategy turned to
increase their liquidity by selling land for the development of mid-class residential and
focus on the market for low income housing; taking in consideration that this segment is
financed primarily by credits granted by INFONAVIT and FOVISSSTE. While obtaining
bank mortgages became very limited as a consequence of the crisis, the granting of
credits by INFONAVIT did not, since these institutions did not have the right to prohibit
credits to those who qualified. This allowed the Company, in midst of the 2008 global
crisis, to grow in number of houses built by 82.54%; from 2,967 homes sold in 2008 to
5.416 in 2009. The Company also achieved a growth of 28.37% in revenues from the
sale of housing, from MP $ 987 million in 2008 to MP $1.267 bn in 2009.
By 2010 the company strategy focused on consolidating the growth achieved in 2009,
having a growth of 5.48% in revenue through the sale and deed of 5,431 homes. This
business model adopted by the company has allowed it to have a CAGR* in revenues of
21.3% since 2008 (graph 2), while a growth of 23.2% in the total house units sold in the
same period (graph 3).
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
Graph 1:
Housing Geographic Distribution
14%
22%
45%
86%
46%
61%
38%
39%
2013
2014
78%
55%
2009
62%
2010
54%
2011
2012
Cancun
Others
Graph 2
Revenues
3,140
2,485
1,581
1,267
1,337
2009
2010
1,757
987
2008
2011
2012
2013
2014e
Graph 3
House Units Sold
10,359
9,065
6,150
5,416
5,431
2009
2010
6,713
2,967
2008
2011
2012
2013
2014e
4
Mar. 18, 2015
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
The table below shows the company’s growth and main indicators through the last 7
years:
million pesos
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Revenue
987
1,267
1,336
1,581
1,757
2,485
3,140
Other Revenues
201
290
75
122
151
122
57
Total Revenues
1,188
1,557
1,411
1,703
1,908
2,607
3,197
Costs of Sales
747
1,119
960
1,196
1,335
1,874
2,409
Gross Profit
441
438
451
507
573
733
788
Sales and Administrative Expenses 161
129
128
151
168
271
290
Operating Income
280
309
323
356
405
462
498
Income before Tax
272
301
318
341
398
446
480
Tax
-29
-128
-100
-110
-118
-151
-137
Net Income
243
173
218
231
280
295
343
EBITDA
351
432
415
460
502
598
629
As of today, the company strategy focuses on the following aspects: continue a gradual
geographic diversification, especially in the Southeast, the development of higher value
housing, higher house prices, and institutional strengthening. The Company seeks to
reach similar average house pricing to those recorded before the 2008 crisis; which can
be seen through the rise in house prices since 2011 (Graph 4). By December 2014, the
company had over 435 hectares of total land, which represents a 4 year reserve
according to units sold in 2014. Company policies maintain that a 4 year reserve should
be kept at all times.
Graph 4
$332,625
Average House Price
$259,122
$245,053
$257,097 $261,744
$303,149
$274,159
CADU – CORPOVAEL’S – Structure:
CORPOVAEL
(Holding)
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014e
Developing Companies
99.99%
CADU Inmobiliaria
S.A. De C.V.
CADU
Inm.
CADU
Inm.
CADU
Inm.
CADU
Inm.
In 2014, the government announced their plan to support house developers through
subsidies (See Background Section). This can clearly be seen as CADU sold 72% of
their houses with this subsidy (Table #). As a result, the company was able to grow
substantially in 2014, while the construction sector and other developers hardly did; from
2013 to 2014, the company increased the number of houses sold by 14%, reaching
10,359 units and their revenues by 22.6%. Also, this support has allowed the company
to gradually increase the selling price of houses. The company at the moment has great
dependence on external financing, however if they can increase their revenues margin
(through the rise in house prices) they may become less dependent on these financings.
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
5
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
CADU’s Developments:
Houses (Units)
Location / Name of Project
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CANCUN
VILLAS DEL MAR I
1,129
VILLAS DEL MAR II
836
850
216
166
141
136
0
878
1,321
1,137
1,215
1,280
94
2,934
2,208
1,222
415
0
476
714
1,125
1,977
2,308
37
PASEOS DEL MAR
0
2,812
RESIDENCIAL
0
53
VILLAS DEL MAR V
0
1,255
VILLAS DEL MAR III
VILLAS OTOCH PARAISO 1r
572
VILLAS OTOCH PARAISO 108
TOTAL CANCUN
2,537
5,138
4,459
3,650
3,748
3,724
4,251
881
2,332
1,298
1,083
746
99
0
0
1,239
1,705
2,584
2,636
2,788
3,330
0
0
741
201
RIVIERA MAYA
VILLAS DEL SOL 166
VILLAS DEL SOL
Playa del Carmen (DD)
TOTAL RIVIERA MAYA
0
0
881
2,332
JALISCO
Altus Bosques
244
54
13
ALTUS QUINTAS
155
224
78
0
Cielito Lindo
Las Trojes
267
Usada
TOTAL JALISCO
60
109
222
60
850
690
278
91
0
0
757
1,407
0
0
0
0
757
1,407
168
269
443
99
503
582
EDO. DE MEXICO
ZUMPANGO
TOTAL EDO. DE MEXICO
BAJIO
Aguascalientes
31
León
TOTAL BAJIO
2,537
0
0
168
269
946
681
5,416
5,431
6,150
6,713
9,065
10,359
# Houses Sold vs. Houses sold with Subsidies
2011
2012
2013
2014
Revenue
per House
# House
Sold
1,581
1,757
2,492
3,140
6,150
6,713
9,067
10,359
# Houses with Subsidies /
Subsidies
Total
Average
Price
257,097
261,744
275,590
303,149
41%
30%
72%
2,776
2,715
7,433
Company’s Key Financial Indicators:
Operating Income
EBITDA
$463
$598
$499
$401
$280
2008
$309
$323
2009
2010
$356
$432
$415
2009
2010
$460
$629
$502
$351
2011
2012
2013
2014
2008
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
2011
2012
2013
2014
6
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
3
Mar. 18, 2015
EBITDA Margin
Operational Margin
24%
30%
23%
21%
20%
21%
28%
29%
27%
26%
23%
18%
20%
16%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2008
2009
2011
2012
2013
2014
Interest Coverage
Total Liabilities /Equity
2.3
2010
6
1.7
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
4.8
1.6
4.3
3.8
3.8
2009
2010
4.7
3.2
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2008
Total Debt / EBITDA
2.4
2014
2
1.6
1.3
1.5
1.4
1.4
0.9
1
2009
2013
2.1
1.9
1.8
2008
2012
Net Debt / EBITDA
2.4
1.5
2011
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Negative Cash Flow Analysis:
Like other homebuilders in Mexico, CADU faces a challenging operating environment
characterized by the strong competition. The company depends greatly on its cash flow
for the ability to meets its financial obligations of both its CBs and Bank Credits. In the
past, the company has issued new debt as well as the renewal of bank credits to be
able to amortize outstanding amounts and interests. In 2014 the company saw a
negative net cash flow, mainly due to heavy investments made by the company in order
to replenish inventories consumed in the last quarter of 2013, and also due to the
investment in three major developments, Paseo del Mar, Las Trojes, and Villas del Mar
Plus, whose charters began in June, August, and September respectively.
In the months of October, November, and December 2014, there have been credits for
3,851 homes, meaning that the house titles of the last three months of the year
accounted for 34.6% of total credits granted. The cash generation of the last quarter
was MP $14mn which amounted to an available accumulated cash equivalent of MP
$282 mn. (Graph 5):
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
7
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
Cash Equivalent at End of Period (EoP)
Cash & Equivalents (EoP)
Increment in Cash & Equivalents
$282,094
$245,962
$175,126
$160,323
$14,377.00
($21,755.00)
1T14
2T14
3T14
4T14
($92,591.00)
($107,394.00)
The cash equivalent of MP $282 mn, assures the Company’s ability to fully pay interest
and amortize the outstanding MP $150 mn of CADU 12, plus additional short term bank
credit interests. It is expected that by the end of the year cash available will be positive,
however, given the company’s cash flow and next maturities, we believe CADU will
have to carry out a bond issuance within this or the next year. Another alternative is to
refinance its debt through new bank credits; in either case, the refinance will be
necessary to have available cash. The issuance would most likely be used to amortize
the second payment of CADU 12 or first amortization payment of CADU 14, just as it
happened last year.
a.



Financing Sources:
Bank liabilities increased by 29%, in December 2014 compared to December
2013, from MP $827.7 mn to MP $1,070 mn
Total debt, including CBs by December 2014 increased 34.8%, from MP
$1127.7 mn to MP $1,520 mn
Net debt increased 43.95% going from MP $860 mn in December 2013 to MP
$1,237.9mn in December 2014
Debt is composed 50.1% in bridge loans, CBs in the Mexican Market make up 23.6%,
17.9% in financing for working capital and the remaining 8.4% aimed at the acquisition
of land reserves. The short-term debt represents 20% of the total, including the capital
payment of the first debt issuance.
Bank Credits:
Million Pesos
Amounts Due
2015
2016
2017
$270.5
$485.3
$314.2
Debt Issuances Outstanding Amount:
Million Pesos
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
CADU 12
CADU 14
Total Outstanding
$300
$150
$300
$450
$0*
$300
$300
$0
$150
$150
$0
$150
$150
$300
*CADU 12 fully amortizes on April 2015
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
8
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
Bond Issuance Characteristics:
CADU 14:
On July 17, 2014 the company successfully conducted its second bond issuance in
the Mexican Stock Exchange with a 1.88 times the demand offered. The ticker is
"CADU14" and the amount issued was $ 300 million, for a term of three years, at a
rate of 250 bps above TIIE28. The notes have a Partial Guarantee by the SHF* for
up to 50% of principal and interest to the holders of the Certificates. Fitch Ratings
gave an A- rating to the issuance while Moody’s considered a A3.mx (A-).
Amortization of the bonds will be conducted through two payments, 50% in July
2016 and July 2017. Resources of the issuance were destined for working capital
(MP $65 million) and MP $140.8 for the first amortization payment regarding the
first bond issuance.
CADU 12:
On April 24, 2012, the company carried out its first debt issuance in the Mexican.
The ticker is "CADU12" and the amount issued was $ 300 million, for a term of
three years, at a rate of 400 bps above TIIE28. The notes have a Partial
Guarantee by NAFIN for up to 48% of principal to the holders of the Certificates.
Fitch Ratings gave an A- rating to the issuance while Moody’s considered a A3.mx
(A-). The first capital amortization was carried out in April 2014 representing 50%
of the total amount, while the remaining 50% will be conducted at its maturity on
the 24 of April 2015.
b.
Debt Maturity Profile:
Total Debt and Maturities
Bank Credits
CBs Amort
Interests*
Current
1 year
2 years
$270
$150
$100.2
$485
$150
$78.2
$314
$150
$31.9
$635
$464
$421
2015
2016
2017
*Estimation based on current bank credits and CBs and Actinver's TIIE 28 prediction for next 3 years
c. Covenants relating to CADU’s debt
The company has the following contractual limitations related to its bond
issuances:
CADU12:
1) Interest coverage ratio must be greater than 2. By the end of 2014 the interest
coverage ratio was 4.7x
2) The ratio of debt to EBITDA must be less than 3. By the end of 2014, Total Debt
/ EBITDA was 2.4x
3) The ratio of Bank and CBs (debt bonds) and equity must be below 2. By the end
of 2014 the ratio was [1.28]
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CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
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Mar. 18, 2015
CADU 14
4) That the leverage ratio measured as total liabilities by the equity in any quarter
may not exceed 3.0. At September 30, 2014 the ratio was 1.79
5) That the ratio of net debt (debt with cost minus available cash) to EBITDA should
not exceed 3.5. At September 30, 2014 Net debt / EBITDA ratio was 2.42
d. CADU’s Ratings
Moody’s assigned the global rating of “Ba3” and a local rating of “A3.mx” while Fitch
Ratings gave the local grade of “A”. These indicate low expectation of default risk
relative to other issuers or obligations in the same country. However,
macroeconomic volatility or poor results even for a short period may affect the
capacity for timely repayment.
Positive Rating Drivers considered by the Agencies:
Substantial geographic concentration in Quintana Roo and its tourism-centered
economy. The company has a solid structure than enables it to face a
competitive and tough environment. CADU’s ratings consider its market
leadership in the cities of Cancun and Playa del Carmen; this in terms of
number of credits by INFONAVIT, with a market share of 44.7% and 62.2%
respectively.
 At current production levels, the company has sufficient land reserve for
housing over the next four years. Also, current land reserve of the company
complies with the requirements of the authority so the units built continue to be
subject to the subsidies regulations.
 Leading positioning in its main market
 Efficient operation that results in strong profitability
 Mortgage interest rates continue to drop, so it expected to favor the
construction sector and the acquisition of mortgage credits

Main negative factors considered by the rating agencies:


Even though the company has increased it’s geographically diversification in
the past years (Hence the raise in the corporate rating since past years), it is
still very concentrated and dependent on few regions.
Due to the short term debt obligations, the company is constantly under
liquidity duress
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CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
3. Cash Flow Forecast
For the following projections we estimated an annual growth of 7% in total revenues.
The reason for this being that the construction sector will have a moderate growth of
3.6% and INFONAVIT credit grants will only increase by 3.6% for 2015. This growth is a
national estimation, and the areas where the company operates have a history of higher
credit demand than that of the national. Also, in 2014 there was an income growth of
22.6% but most of the houses sold contained a subsidy from the government. We
expect that the demand for mortgage loans by 2015 will drop.
Cadu: Estimated Cash Flow
Thousands Ps.
Earnings before taxes
Depreciation
Interest expenses related to Cost of Sales
Cash flow from Net Income
2013
445,597
6,671
149,586
606,402
2014
480,282
7,480
122,741
606,364
2015e
494,797
8,378
91,635
594,810
2016e
549,484
9,383
71,174
630,041
2017e
613,556
10,509
29,000
653,064
Working Capital
-Increase (+decr.) Clients
-Increase (+decr.) Inventories
-Increase (+decr.) Receivables
Increase (decr.) Suppliers
Increase (decr.) Other Liabilities
Increase (decr.) Taxes
-287,601
-73,205
-233,706
8,345
22,337
118,831
-130,203
-722,751
176,190
-542,924
-101,137
32,576
-157,622
-129,834
-512,725
-2,790
-249,457
-18,103
29,318
-141,860
-129,834
-511,930
-2,901
-271,908
-6,000
26,387
-127,674
-129,834
-528,389
-3,017
-296,380
-8,000
23,748
-114,906
-129,834
Net Operating Cash Flow
Fixed Assets
Other Earned Interest
Capex
New Financing from Banks
New debt issuances
Other credit
Bank Debt amortization
Bond amortization
Dividends
Interest Expenses
Other liabilities
Total Financing Activities
Increase (Decr.) Cash and Equivalents
Cash at the beginning
Cash at the end
318,801
-116,387
82,085
118,111
124,675
-9,778
0
-9,778
-31,975
4,139
-27,836
-31,975
4,139
-27,836
-31,975
4,139
-27,836
-31,975
4,139
-27,836
2,199,827
0
0
-1,992,318
0
-215,131
-139,794
488
-146,928
2,526,481
295,857
0
-2,284,479
-146,140
-100,000
-133,119
0
158,600
0
400,000
0
-270,497
-150,000
-103,907
-100,698
0
-225,103
700,000
0
0
-485,269
-150,000
-115,392
-78,213
0
-128,874
550,000
0
0
-314,232
-150,000
-128,847
-31,868
0
-74,946
162,095
105,622
267,717
14,377
267,717
282,094
-170,854
282,094
111,240
-38,599
111,240
72,641
21,892
72,641
94,533
4. Industry Analysis
a. Background:
Since 2010, the housing industry experienced a period of transition to new
policies that required longer working capital cycles. In previous years, the
housing development model favored the funding for new housing without taking
in consideration the environmental, economic and urbanization impact. This was
exploited by the development industry for the production of affordable housing in
increasingly remote and far from developed urban centers places where the land
is cheaper. This model of extended and sparse city resulted in high costs for both
the public and the government.
The presidential election in 2012 created new policies and made operational
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
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CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
changes to the heads of the major sector entities (INFONAVIT & FOVISSSTE),
which caused operational and funding delays. Furthermore, developers would
now have to comply with new standards which led many to believe that the
reclassification of land reserves could impact the land value. The political and
operational changes increased the uncertainty in the sector, and as a result,
commercial banks reduced exposure towards the sector while grants suffered
major delays affecting housing demand. This set off a challenging environment
that ultimately resulted in the failure of some of the largest companies in the
sector. House developers such as URBI, HOMEX, and GEO faced liquidity
problems and an incapacity to meet their debt obligations as its financial
structure did not allow them to adapt immediately to the new regulations in
Mexico. As a consequence of the harsh environment the developing companies
faced in the last years, the federal government provided support to the sector.
First, the SHF implemented a MP 15,000 million budget to support financial
institutions, so this in turn could lend to the developers and the SHF would
absorb 30% of first losses. The government also granted syndicated credits
through developing banks to the developers for the construction of houses –
CADU was authorized a credit of MP 1,000 million in august 2013). Lastly, it
incremented the federal budget for housing subsidies to MP 12,000 million for
2014, a 40% increase from 2013.
It was not until the end of 2013 that the sector changed its downward tendency
when, as mentioned above, housing subsidies increased and the federal
government announced the disposal of MP $12,000 million for subsidies in 2014.
Funding for house purchase presented a recovery in 2014, but was still less than
the annual performance recorded in Mexico in the period 2000 to 2012. During
2014, mortgage financing in Mexico behaved as follows:
 INFONAVIT placed 556 000 credits (5% higher than 2013), amounting to
MP 110,000 million, up 12% in 2013.
 FOVISSSTE placed 87 000 credits, with an investment of MP 38,500
million, 12.5% higher than 2013.
 SHF originated 204,000 credits in the amount of MP 17,700 million,
exceeding by 32% to 2013.
 Commercial banks granted 16,000 new housing loans, with an investment
of MP 122.300 billion, 12.4% more than in 2013.
Currently both the government and the developers are focused on improving
conditions for access to various housing options, generating new structures such
as house rentals, second house purchase, a second loan, and greater coverage
to nontraditional segments. The new housing model pretends to:
 Encourage housing in urban centers.
 Development of vertical housing.
 Improve the quality of urban and rural housing and social environment to
reduce the housing deficit.
 Diversify the supply of quality housing.
 Generate better credit subsidy arrangements.
 Financing and housing subsidy for house rentals.
 Second mortgage lending.
 Better arrangements for public workers (FOVISSSTE) through cofinancing structures with commercial banks and / or development banks.
 New funding structures under fixed rates instead of indexed rates (UDIS).
c.
Perspective for the housing sector: We believe that the changes announced
this year by the government in housing will be an additional factor to improve
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
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CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
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Mar. 18, 2015
housing demand over the next years.
 Regarding the housing deficit, 5.6% of households will ask for a credit,
representing 714.522 credits, an increase of 9.9% in 2015
 93,252 families are expected to demand a housing loan with better terms
regarding their current housing. This represents a 4.2% grow
 Origination Cures (those who are rejected to acquire a mortgage and they
are authorized subsequently as a result of an improvement in their credit
profile) will increase by 7.2% which translate to 34.292 credits
 According to the SHF, only the demand for household formation will
reduce; 3.17% in annual terms, totaling 317.414
Housing demand by component, 2015
(number of households and percentage)
Component
2014
2015
%
Household formation
329,556
317,414
-3.7%
Housing deficit
650,325
714,522
9.9%
Housing credit-improvement
89,500
93,252
4.2%
Origination cures
32,000
34,292
7.2%
1,101,381
1,159,480
5.3%
Total Demand
This year it is estimated that households will demand 1,159,480 of some sort of
credit for housing; this demand will impact slightly more than 4.5 million people
and represents a 5.3% increase from 2014. Total demand is composed of four
sections :
Number of Credits
Type of Credit
2014
2015
Acquisition
579,036
615,109
Improvements
413,988
443,623
7.2%
Autoproduction
108,357
100,748
-7.0%
1,101,381
1,159,480
5.3%
Total credits
%
6.2%
Number of credits per type, 2015
Acquisition
Improvements
Autoproduction
Total
Composition %
Infonavit
380,000
280,000
0
660,000
57%
Fovissste
50,000
20,000
0
70,000
6%
Bank
130,000
80,000
40,748
250,748
22%
Other entities
55,109
63,623
60,000
178,732
15%
Total
615,109
443,623
100,748
1,159,480
100%
 There is a housing shortage of 15.3 million homes, of which 3,000,000 are
to be reintegrated. This year, the federal government plans to reintegrate
between 47 000 and 57 000 houses.
 CONAPO estimates, the population will continue to grow until 2044, so it
is expected that demand for housing will continue to rise for at least the
next 20 years.
 For 2015 there will be an investment of 370 billion pesos for the housing
sector
 Increased flexibility in eligibility criteria for grants
 Better conditions for mortgage credits to the users by INFONAVIT and
FOVISSSTE, including greater amounts and credits in pesos, and lower
interest payments
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
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CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
Number of Credit Origination Estimation
INFONAVIT
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
380
390
391
392
42
43
43
43
394
43
125
129
129
129
130
400
395
390
385
213
218
219
220
221
380
375
370
2014
2015
Below 4 TMS*
2016
4 to 11 TMS*
2017
2018
Above 11 TMS*
*TMS= Times Minimum Salaries (Veces Salario Minimo VSM)
The tourism sector in Quintana Roo:
CADU focuses 47% of its business in the state of Quintana Roo, covering the low
income sector, which in turn is highly linked to jobs relating to the tourism sector in
the state. Quintana Roo has seen an increase in its tourism indicators which
means more jobs and potential business to CADU (It is worth pointing out that the
figures presented bellow do not take into consideration the month of December
2014):
 The state increased the number of tourists from 2013 to November 2014 by
10.8%, reaching a total of 13.1 million tourists
 Occupancy rates in hotels increased by an average of 3.5% from 2013
 The cash input into the state by November 2014 had increased by 9.5% from
2013, reaching USD $7.5bn
 By the end of 2013, the state’s GDP was of MP $225 bn. out of which tertiary
activities, those associated to tourism, made up 86% of the total. Quintana Roo
contributed with 1.4% of the total national GDP.
d.
Macroeconomic Scenario
According to the Banxico forecasts for economic activity in its latest report, the
expected growth for the economy in Mexico for 2014 was between 2.5% and 3.5%,
slightly below its previous forecast of 2.0% -2.8%. For the years 2015 and 2016 a
recovery in GDP expected rates of between 3.0% to 4.0% and 3.2% to 4.2%
respectively.
Recent figures show a change in trend in the construction sector, where more than
290 billion dollars and more than 1.1 million in funding credits were invested in
housing. The third quarter of 2014 was one of the best in a matter of economic
growth for the construction industry, growing 4% over the same period of 2013
derived from the major related work and a rise in demand for building materials.
The Mexican economy as a whole barely registered a 2.2% advance in the same
period. The housing credit portfolio of INFONAVIT registered an upturn in the
average annual growth during the last quarter of 2014, after months of a downward
tendency, registering a 3.0% growth.
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
14
Mar. 18, 2015
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Industrial Activity Growth
2008=100 base
(Construction
Housing Credits
Annual Variation
)
INFONAVIT vs. Commercial Banks
Source: Banxico
2014 was a year of recovery for the housing and construction sector, where
412,300 housing units were registered, 35.2% more than the record low in 2013 of
305,000 units. At year end, it had registered 297,000 new homes and 263,000
completed homes, representing an increase of 34.2% compared to the same period
in 2013 (Figure #).
5. Bond Valuation
Issuance
Type
Out. Amount
Recommendation
Mill. Ps.
Spread pp
YTM %
Coupon %
Maturity date
FITCH
Moodys
Dirty price
91_CADU_14 Floating Amortizing Bond
2.5
5.8
5.8
13/07/2017
A+ (mex)
A3.mx
100.2
300
Buy
91_CADU_12 Floating Amortizing Bond
2.5
5.8
7.3
24/04/2015
A+ (mex)
A3.mx
100.5
150
Hold
*
*We recommend to Hold possession until maturity, which is within one month from the date of this publication
6. Relative Value
Ticket:
Amount:
Issuance Date:
Maturity Date:
Term:
Coupon:
Spread:
S&P/Fitch/Moody’s/HR:
Guarantee
Amortization:
Anticipated Amortization:
Make-whole:
CADU 12
$300 million.
April 27, 2012
April 24, 2015.
3.0 years
TIIE 28 + 4.00%
0.00%
nd / A+(mex) / A3.mx / nd
Has a partial unconditionally and irrevocably
guaranteed from Nacional Financiera by 48% of the
outstanding principal.
Partial: 50% within two years, and the remaining
50% at maturity
Not Applicable.
Not Applicable.
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
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CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Use of Proceeds:
Commentary:
Ticket:
Amount:
Issuance Date:
Maturity Date:
Term:
Coupon:
Spread:
S&P/Fitch/Moody’s/HR:
Guarantee
Amortization:
Anticipated Amortization:
Make-whole:
Use of Proceeds:
Commentary:
Mar. 18, 2015
Working Capital, Purchase of land, and debt
payment
According to the relative value analysis and
considering the rating of A- for the issuance, CADU
12 is found above the curve of its comparables. For
this reason we recommend to hold possession of the
bond; primarily because of its maturity within one
month and guarantee for the principal amortization
and because of its attractive rate
CADU 14
$ 300 million.
July 17, 2014
July 13, 2017.
3.0 years
TIIE 28 + 2.50%
0.00%
nd / A+(mex) / A3.mx / nd
It has collateral trust, whose obligations are
secured by a guarantee of timely payment
(GPO) for up to 50% of the unpaid balance of
principal and interest, granted by SHF.
Partial: 50% within two years, and the
remaining 50% at maturity.
Not Applicable.
Not Applicable.
Working Capital, Purchase of land, and debt
payment
According to the relative value analysis and
considering the rating of A- for the issuance,
CADU 14 is located slightly under the curve
of its comparables. In spite of this, we
recommend to buy or maintain position since
its rate is attractive and it contains a GPO.
Annex- Financial Projections
Cadu: Estimated Income Statement
Thousand Ps.
Net Sales
2013
2014
2,607,704 3,197,390
2015e
3,421,207
2016e
3,763,328
2017e
4,139,661
Cost of Sales
Gross Mg.
Gross Income
Operating expenses
1,873,552 2,408,512
72%
75%
734,152
788,878
270,741
289,972
2,577,108
75%
844,099
332,807
2,834,819
75%
928,509
366,088
3,118,300
75%
1,021,360
402,697
519,670
511,292
-16,496
494,797
148,439
346,358
571,804
562,422
-12,938
549,484
164,845
384,639
629,173
618,664
-5,108
613,556
184,067
429,489
EBITDA
Operating Income
Financial cost
Earnings before taxes
Taxes
Net Income
469,795
463,124
-18,101
445,597
151,143
294,454
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
506,386
498,906
-18,624
480,282
136,896
343,386
16
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
Cadu: Estim ated Balance Sheet
Thousands pesos
Short Term Assets
Cash and equivalents
Clients
Other receivables
Inventories
Long term Assets
Total Assets
Short Term Liabilities
Banks
Bonds
Suppliers
Taxes
Other short term assets
Other
Long Term Liabilites
Banks
Bonds
Deferred taxes
Total Liabilities
Cadu: Estim ated Leverage Ratios
Mill. Ps.
Gross Debt
Cash and equivalents
Net Debt
Operating Cash Flow
EBITDA
Net Debt / Operating Cash Flow
Net Debt / EBITDA
2013
2014
2015e
2016e
2017e
2,774,501 3,274,528 3,295,970 3,526,180 3,839,469
267,717
282,093
111,240
72,641
94,533
176,364
69,740
72,530
75,431
78,448
69,566
72,897
91,000
85,000
77,000
2,228,819 2,771,743 3,021,200 3,293,108 3,589,488
49,966
56,678
56,678
56,678
56,678
2,824,467 3,331,206 3,352,648 3,582,858 3,896,147
705,136
261,144
147,273
111,348
25,169
160,202
582,205
270,497
146,155
143,924
1,648
19,981
589,894
270,497
146,155
173,242
616,281
270,497
146,155
199,629
640,029
270,497
146,155
223,377
1,070,204
566,596
148,584
355,024
1,775,340
1,456,484
799,501
295,841
361,142
2,038,689
1,435,987
529,004
545,841
361,142
2,025,881
1,500,718
743,735
395,841
361,142
2,116,999
1,586,486
979,503
245,841
361,142
2,226,515
2013
1,123,597
267,717
855,880
2014
1,511,994
282,093
1,229,901
2015e
1,491,497
111,240
1,380,257
2016e
1,556,228
72,641
1,483,587
2017e
1,641,996
94,533
1,547,463
318,801
469,795
-116,387
506,386
82,085
519,670
118,111
571,804
124,675
629,173
2.7
1.8
-10.6
2.4
16.8
2.7
12.6
2.6
12.4
2.5
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
17
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
Cadu: Estimated Cash Flow
Thousands Ps.
Earnings before taxes
Depreciation
Interest expenses related to Cost of Sales
Cash flow from Net Income
2013
445,597
6,671
149,586
606,402
2014
480,282
7,480
122,741
606,364
2015e
494,797
8,378
91,635
594,810
2016e
549,484
9,383
71,174
630,041
2017e
613,556
10,509
29,000
653,064
Working Capital
-Increase (+decr.) Clients
-Increase (+decr.) Inventories
-Increase (+decr.) Receivables
Increase (decr.) Suppliers
Increase (decr.) Other Liabilities
Increase (decr.) Taxes
-287,601
-73,205
-233,706
8,345
22,337
118,831
-130,203
-722,751
176,190
-542,924
-101,137
32,576
-157,622
-129,834
-512,725
-2,790
-249,457
-18,103
29,318
-141,860
-129,834
-511,930
-2,901
-271,908
-6,000
26,387
-127,674
-129,834
-528,389
-3,017
-296,380
-8,000
23,748
-114,906
-129,834
Net Operating Cash Flow
Fixed Assets
Other Earned Interest
Capex
New Financing from Banks
New debt issuances
Other credit
Bank Debt amortization
Bond amortization
Dividends
Interest Expenses
Other liabilities
Total Financing Activities
Increase (Decr.) Cash and Equivalents
Cash at the beginning
Cash at the end
318,801
-116,387
82,085
118,111
124,675
-9,778
0
-9,778
-31,975
4,139
-27,836
-31,975
4,139
-27,836
-31,975
4,139
-27,836
-31,975
4,139
-27,836
2,199,827
0
0
-1,992,318
0
-215,131
-139,794
488
-146,928
2,526,481
295,857
0
-2,284,479
-146,140
-100,000
-133,119
0
158,600
0
400,000
0
-270,497
-150,000
-103,907
-100,698
0
-225,103
700,000
0
0
-485,269
-150,000
-115,392
-78,213
0
-128,874
550,000
0
0
-314,232
-150,000
-128,847
-31,868
0
-74,946
162,095
105,622
267,717
14,377
267,717
282,094
-170,854
282,094
111,240
-38,599
111,240
72,641
21,892
72,641
94,533
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
18
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
Equity, Economic, Quantitative and Fixed Income Research Departments
Análisis Deuda
Araceli Espinosa Elguea, PhD
Directora de Análisis de Deuda
(52) 55 1103 -66000 x6641
[email protected]
Jesús Viveros Hernández
Análisis de Deuda
(52) 55 1103 -66000 x6649
[email protected]
Análisis de Deuda
(52) 55 1103-6600x1110
[email protected]
Director Análisis Fundamental
(52) 55 1103-6600x1193
[email protected]
Martín Lara
Telecomunicaciones, Medios y Financiero
(52) 55 1103-6600x1840
[email protected]
Carlos Hermosillo Bernal
Consumo
(52) 55 1103-6600x4134
[email protected]
Pablo Duarte de León
Fibras y Hoteles
(52) 55 1103-6600x4334
[email protected]
Ramón Ortiz Reyes
Cemento, Construcción y Concesiones
(52) 55 1103-6600x1835
[email protected]
Federico Robinson Bours
Carrillo
Energía, Conglomerados, Industriales y
Minería
(52) 55 1103-6600x4127
[email protected]
Juan Enrique Ponce
Telecomunicaciones, Medios y Financiero
(52) 55 1103-6600x1693
jponce@actinver,com.mx
Ana Cecilia González
Rodríguez
Fibras y Hoteles
(52) 55 1103-6600x4130
[email protected]
Enrique Octavio Camargo
Delgado
Cemento, Construcción y Concesiones,
Energía, Conglomerados, Industriales y
Minería
(52) 55 1103-6600x1836
[email protected]
Ismael Capistrán Bolio
Director Análisis Económico y Cuantitativo
(52) 55 1103-6600x1487
[email protected]
Jaime Ascencio Aguirre
Economía y Mercados
Raúl Márquez Pardinas
Análisis Fundamental
Gustavo Terán Durazo, CFA
Analistas Senior
Analistas Junior
Análisis Económico y Cuantitativo
[email protected]
(52) 55 1103-6600 x793325
Santiago Hernández Morales
Análisis Cuantitativo
[email protected]
(52) 55 1103-6600 x4133
Roberto Galván González
Análisis Técnico
[email protected]
(52) 55 1103 -66000x5039
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
19
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
Mar. 18, 2015
Disclaimer
Guide for recommendations on investment in the companies under coverage included or not, in the Mexican
Stock Exchange main Price Index (IPC)

Strong Buy with an extraordinary perspective. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the
valuations of stock and/or prospects for the sector are EXTREMELY FAVORABLE

Buy. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the stock’s valuation and / or prospects for
the sector are VERY FAVORABLE

Neutral. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuation of stock and / or sector ARE
NEUTRAL OR FAVORABLE but with a similar perspective to the IPC

Belowmarket. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuation of stock and / or
sector outlook ARE NOT POSITIVE

Sell. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuation of stock and / or sector outlook
ARE NEGATIVE, or likely to worsen

In review with positive outlook

In review with negative or unfavorable perspective
Important Statements.
a)
Of the Analysts:
“The analysts in charge of producing the Analysis Reports:
Jaime Ascencio Aguirre; Mauricio Arellano Sampson; Ismael Capistrán Bolio; Pablo Enrique Duarte de León; Araceli Espinosa
Elguea; David Foulkes González; Roberto Galván González; Carlos Hermosillo Bernal; Santiago Hernández Morales; Martín
Roberto Lara Poo; Ramón Ortiz Reyes; Federico Robinson Bours Carrillo; Gustavo Adolfo Terán Durazo; Jesús Viveros
Hernández, declare”:
1.
"All points of view about the issuers under coverage correspond exclusively to the responsible analyst and authentically reflect
his vision. All recommendations made by analysts are prepared independently of any institution, including the institution where
the services are provided or companies belonging to the same financial or business group. The compensation scheme is not
based or related, directly or indirectly, with any specific recommendation and the remunerationis only received from the entity
which the analysts provide their services.
2.
"None of the analysts with coverage of the issuers mentioned in this report holds any office, position or commission at issuers
underhis coverage, or any of the people who are part of the Business Group or consortium to which they belong. They have
neither held any position during the twelve months prior to the preparation of this report. "
3.
"Recommendations on issuers, made by the analyst who covers them, are based on public information and there is no
guarantee of their assertiveness regarding the performance that is actually observed in the values object of the
recommendation"
4.
"Analysts maintain investments subject to their analysis reports on the following issuers: AC, ALFA, ALPEK, ALSEA,
AMX,AZTECA, CEMEX, CHDRAUI, FEMSA, FIBRAMQ, FINDEP, FUNO, GENTERA, GFREGIO, GRUMA, ICA, IENOVA,
KOF, LAB, LIVEPOL, MEXCHEM, OHLMEX, TLEVISA,SORIANA, SPORTS, VESTA, WALMEX.
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
20
CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in
the House Development Sector
b)
Mar. 18, 2015
On Actinver Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. Grupo Financiero Actinver
1.
Actinver Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. GrupoFinanciero Actinver, under any circumstance shall ensure the sense of the
recommendations contained in the reports of analysis to ensure future business relationship.
2.
All Actinver Casa de Bolsa, SA de C.V. GrupoFinanciero Actinver business units can explore and do business with any
company mentioned in documents of analysis. All compensation for services given in the past or in the future, received by
Actinver Casa de Bolsa, SA de C.V. GrupoFinanciero Actinver by any company mentioned in this report has not had and will
not have any effect on the compensation paid to the analysts. However, just like any other employee of Actinver Group and its
subsidiaries, the compensation being enjoyed by our analysts will be affected by the profitability gained by Actinver Group and
its subsidiaries.
3.
At the end of each of the previous three months, Actinver Casa de Bolsa, SA de C.V. Actinver Financial Group, has not held
any investments directly or indirectly in securities or financial derivatives, whose underlying are Securities subject of the
analysis reports, representing one percent or more of its portfolio of securities, investment portfolio, outstanding of the
Securities or the underlying value of the question, except for the following: * AEROMEX, BOLSA A, FINN 13, FSHOP 13,
SMARTRC14.
4.
Certain directors and officers of Actinver Casa de Bolsa, SA de C.V. GrupoFinanciero Actinver occupy a similar position at the
following issuers: AEROMEX, MASECA, AZTECA, ALSEA, FINN, MAXCOM, SPORTS, FSHOP and FUNO.
This report will be distributed to all persons who meet the profile to acquire the type of values that is recommended in its content.
Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor
21

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