BUY: CADU-14
Transcrição
BUY: CADU-14
Mar. 18, 2015 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector 19 de marzo de 2015 CADU demonstrates a constant growth in revenues and house units sold in the midst of a challenging environment for Mexican homebuilders. The Company operates under limited cash availability but shows capacity to meet its financial obligations BUY: CADU-14 Fitch: A+(mex) Moody’s: Ba.3 YTM : 5.18% Rate: TIIE 28 + 2.50% 1. Fundamentals This publication assesses CADU’s credit capacity regarding its CBs - CADU 12, & CADU 14, and does not make any attempt to recommend any new debt notes of the company as of today. In fact, at the time of releasing this report, the Company announced through the Mexican Stock Market its intention to issue a new bond, partly intended to refinance part of its liabilities. We initiate CADUs (The Company) debt coverage with a Fundamental Buy recommendation supporting our investment thesis on the Company’s ability to meet its financial obligations and its growth record. The company faces limited liquidity due to the nature of the business but it presents sufficient capacity to carry out its remaining amortization payment of CADU 12 and additional interest in the upcoming months regarding CADU 14 and bank credits. Considering the operational cash flow estimated for the next 3 years, and additional financing, there will be sufficient resources to cover dividend, interest payments and amortizations. A history of steady growth; ample land reserves, a debt guarantee for both issuances and strong covenants support our recommendation. By the end of 2014, the company had a cash equivalent of MP $282 mn, which assures its ability to fully pay interest and amortize the outstanding MP $150 mn of CADU 12, plus additional short term bank credit interests. However, in the past, the company has depended on new issuances and renewal of bank credits to have sufficient cash flow to meet all of its financial obligations and CAPEX. The company will most likely have to issue new notes and/or refinance bank credits to pay future interests and amortizations, as it has done before. At the moment, the company is under a tight but manageable cash flow margin; it is important to keep in mind that if new financing becomes limited, the company will be under distress to pay future obligations. Table. 1. Key Financial Indicators(P$ mm) Net Sales EBITDA Operating Income Net Income Net Operating Cash Flow Cash at EoP CADU reported an annual growth of 22.6% in net sales and 14% growth in house units sold last year, while for 2015, we estimate a growth of 7% and 8% in revenues and house units, respectively. These are greater than what the construction sector is expected to grow (3%) and the number of credits the INFONAVIT will grant (3.6%) during the year. Revenues and house sold growths can be supported by the fact that CADU focuses its projects in places where demand for credits is greater than the national average, and thus, greater construction investments. Also, the growth in sales is based on undergoing projects that were started in the last quarter of 2014 and will be ready to be commercialized within the first semester of 2015. Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 2015e 3,421,207 519,670 511,292 346,358 82,085 111,240 2016e 3,763,328 571,804 562,422 384,639 118,111 72,641 2017e 4,139,661 629,173 618,664 429,489 124,675 94,533 CADU’s CBs *Ticker Rtng Mrty OutS. CADU 12 A+/AApr-15 150m CADU 14 A+/AJul-17 300m See CBs Details Under section 2a Spread 4.00% 2.50% *Ticker/Rating/Maturity/Outstanding Amount/Spread over TIIE 28 Index: 1. 2. 3. Table 1 shows our CADUs principal financial indicators, including net operational cash flow estimates for the next 3 years as well as cash available at the end of the period. As of 2015, annual available cash is expected to surpass MP $111mn, in 2016 MP $72 mn, and MP $94 mn in 2017. The proposed financial forecast takes into consideration greater net operating cash flow for the upcoming years. This allows the company to reduce its leverage and become less dependent of external financing sources, and still be able to meet all debt obligations (See Section 3 – CADU’s Financial Forecasts). The financial forecasts proposed herein have been stressed with respect to the company’s guidance. 2014 3,197,390 506,386 498,906 343,386 -116,387 282,094 4. 5. 6. Fundamentals and Investment Risks CADU, The Company: a. Financing Sources and Debt Maturity Profile b. Debt Leverage. c. Covenants related to CADU’s notes. d. Credit Ratings CADU,s Cash Flow– Actinver’s financial forecasts Industry Analysis: a. Background – The Housing Sector. b. Sector Perspective c. Macroeconomic Scenario Bond Valuations Relative Value Annex: A. Financial Projections Raúl Márquez Pardinas Análisis de Renta Fija [email protected] 1 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 CADU has the capability to adapt to the economic circumstances, as it did in 2008-2009 with the global crisis. While major players in the housing sector remained in the old housing model and/or in the residential segment, some of them went bankrupt, CADU was able to change its business strategy to the low income segment and thrive. In the last years, the company has been able to re-adapt housing prices, and slowly target the mid class housing sector, which has started to reactivate (See The Company – Business Strategy). The company strategy continues to focus on the traditional low-income housing, especially trough INFONAVIT credits, which will grow by 3.6% in 2015 (see INFONAVITs credit grants plans). This, plus the company’s plan to raise the average housing price to that of pre-crisis levels (See Company information), the revenues margin should increase in the following years . Housing financing in Mexico, through FOVISSSTE and INFONAVIT credit loans, have continued to grow in spite of periods of high volatility in financial markets, such as it was in 2008 with the effects of the mortgage loans "subprime" crisis of the United States. Also, in 2012, even with the change of political parties in the presidency, the loans by these institutions showed a continued dynamism and adaptation. In the last couple of years, there has been a re composition in housing demand; the diversity of options to exercise a housing loan has improved loan’s conditions, which in turn has increased the incentives to obtain credits, specially by the low income sector. Taking into consideration the average household income, SHF estimates that for 2015 the demand of mortgage credits will grow by 5.3%, representing nearly 60,000 more credits, compared to 2014. CADUs main market is in the state of Quintana Roo as well as Aguascalientes and Guanajuato; and while these convey some risks (See Risks Section – Geographical Diversity), these are areas that have been growing and it is believed they will keep doing so. On one hand, CADU targets workers associated to the tourism sector in that state; a sector that contributes with most of the state’s GDP (See Background – Tourism in Cancun). On the other hand, Aguascalientes and Guanajuato have seen an increase in demand for INFONAVIT credits since 2006. By the end of 2014, CADU dominated the market with a share of 47.4% in the state of Quintana Roo, composed of 45.1% in Cancun and 59.0% in Playa del Carmen. CADU’s CBs contain a partial guarantee provided by Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal which provides for full recovery on 50% of the instrument's value in the event of default, while the other 50% is effectively subordinated to secured debt in the Company's capital structure. The Company’s covenants set throughout the duration of its CBs demand the company to maintain its financial indicators at least at certain levels. This incites a well-structured and healthy business which reassures investor’s confidence. CADU has met with their financial obligations up to this point, and we believe it will keep doing up to the maturity of the bonds. CADU’s ratings have been supported by its credit metrics and operating margins’ history; rated BBB+ by Fitch and B1 by Moody’s. The company operates under a fully integrated business model, in which it does not utilize subcontractors, and has demonstrated therefore better cost controls. Moreover, the company´s leading position in its main market has also supported performance stability over time. Plenty Land Reserve: the company has the strategy of maintaining 100% ownership of its land reserves; unlike other homebuilders in Mexico that use partnershiMP with third Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 2 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 parties for the acquisition of land. This allows the company to have higher operating margins than its competitors. At current production levels, the company currently has sufficient territorial reserves for housing over the next four years. Additionally, the current land reserve of the company complies with the requirements of both the authority for housing unit developments and internal policies. The housing and construction sector have seen a significant improvement since the third quarter of 2014. In 2012, with the presidential elections and change of political parties, the construction sector was impacted, however, at the current time; these sectors report a higher recovery than the national GDP (See Macroeconomic Scenario section), mainly due to a low base of comparison. It is also important to keep a watch to the following factors that could severely affect the company’s credit obligations: Risk Associated with the Company and its CBs Weak Liquidity & Low Cash Flows: Liquidity is weak mainly due to large debt maturities in the upcoming months. As of December 31, 2014 CADU’s short-term debt represented approximately 20% of total debt, which could create liquidity challenges if not refinanced timely. In April 2014, the company paid down MXN 150 million out of cash, related to a partial amortization of its CADU 12 notes. Also, part of the proceeds from this issuance was directed to refinance bank debt. Although the Company reported positive cash flow in the last quarter of 2014, it will still be pressured by around Mp $270mn in bank debt maturities plus another 150 million associated to the amortization of the second note issuance. Heavy dependence from INFONAVIT: Virtually all funding for social housing in Mexico has been awarded by INFONAVIT and as well as by the Government through SHF and FOVISSSTE. 94.7% of loans to customers of the Company during 2014 were granted by INFONAVIT. This presents a potential concern because if the take-out financing delays, it could create liquidity pressures. However, according to INFONAVIT’s estimations, the number of credits granted will continue to grow for the next years (See Market information). Land price-quality. As more house developers enter or expand their operations in the field of housing, land prices may increase significantly and the availability of suitable land could decline as a result of increased demand or decrease in supply. One of the major challenges facing the company is the successful replenishment of the reserve land under competitive conditions for future operation. Geographical Diversity: Currently the company focuses on few but highly demanded areas for the housing development sectors. Having the business concentrated in few regions can cause volatility and cyclicality due to social, political or natural disasters. In the past, Mexico has seen cities impacted by social factor such as violence, protests or inadequate management by politicians. Also, the state of Quintana Roo is subject to hurricanes, flooding and the other states face water shortage periods, earthquakes, among other natural disasters. None the less, it is important to keep in mind, that while a low geographical diversity presents the risks mentioned above, it has also been a fundamental strategy of the company’s growth since it prevents high expenses related to opening new positions. Dependency of housing State Policies. The Mexican government exercises significant influence over many aspects of the national economy. The Company depends for a large part of their business, in the financing policies for housing, especially regarding the funding and operation of governmental mortgage providers Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 3 Mar. 18, 2015 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector (INFONAVIT). Consequently, the actions of the Mexican government regarding the economy, industry regulation, and setting policies for housing finance could have a significant effect on private sector agencies in Mexico and just as much in their securities performance in the market. Possible decreased in profit margins. The selling price of homes could be affected by the companies providing the credits (INFONAVIT, FOVISSTE, banks), as well as market conditions (supply, demand and competitors). Therefore, if the Company does not accurately estimate construction costs, materials, and labor to achieve target margins and costs rise, the profitability could be adversely affected. Increase in Interest Rates: Historically, in Mexico there have been recurrent economic crisis, characterized by high inflation, instability in the exchange rate, high interest rates, strong contraction in consumer demand, reduced availability of credit, increased unemployment and declining investor confidence, among others. In the event that the national economy falls into a recession, or an increase the interest rates occur, the purchasing power and interest payment ability of consumers could be decreased significantly. These scenarios could create a reduction in new loans and growth in the overdue portfolio of INFONAVIT. 2. CADU, The Company CADU is a holding company which together with its subsidiaries is vertically integrated and engaged in the development of affordable housing. CADU is one of CORPOVAEL’s subsidiaries, responsible for the development in the state of Quintana Roo, which is the company’s most important region. Its activities include the design, development, construction, promotion and sale of homes, mainly in the cities of Cancun and Playa del Carmen, Quintana Roo, whereas of 2014, it had a market share of 39%. CADU has also has presence in the states of Jalisco, Guanajuato, Estado de Mexico and Aguascalientes (Graph 1). While its strategy is to position itself as a leader in southeast Mexico and continue to geographically diversify. The vertical integration of the group has granted flexibility and lower construction times, as well as a considerable reduction in costs while maintaining high profit margins of 15.6% for operational margins and 19.7% EDITDA margin (See Company’s Key Financial Indicators). CADU maintains four years of land reserves for new developments. Business Strategies: In 2008, as a result of the global economic crisis, foreseeing a possible contraction in lending for house purchase by financial institutions, the Company's strategy turned to increase their liquidity by selling land for the development of mid-class residential and focus on the market for low income housing; taking in consideration that this segment is financed primarily by credits granted by INFONAVIT and FOVISSSTE. While obtaining bank mortgages became very limited as a consequence of the crisis, the granting of credits by INFONAVIT did not, since these institutions did not have the right to prohibit credits to those who qualified. This allowed the Company, in midst of the 2008 global crisis, to grow in number of houses built by 82.54%; from 2,967 homes sold in 2008 to 5.416 in 2009. The Company also achieved a growth of 28.37% in revenues from the sale of housing, from MP $ 987 million in 2008 to MP $1.267 bn in 2009. By 2010 the company strategy focused on consolidating the growth achieved in 2009, having a growth of 5.48% in revenue through the sale and deed of 5,431 homes. This business model adopted by the company has allowed it to have a CAGR* in revenues of 21.3% since 2008 (graph 2), while a growth of 23.2% in the total house units sold in the same period (graph 3). Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor Graph 1: Housing Geographic Distribution 14% 22% 45% 86% 46% 61% 38% 39% 2013 2014 78% 55% 2009 62% 2010 54% 2011 2012 Cancun Others Graph 2 Revenues 3,140 2,485 1,581 1,267 1,337 2009 2010 1,757 987 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014e Graph 3 House Units Sold 10,359 9,065 6,150 5,416 5,431 2009 2010 6,713 2,967 2008 2011 2012 2013 2014e 4 Mar. 18, 2015 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector The table below shows the company’s growth and main indicators through the last 7 years: million pesos 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revenue 987 1,267 1,336 1,581 1,757 2,485 3,140 Other Revenues 201 290 75 122 151 122 57 Total Revenues 1,188 1,557 1,411 1,703 1,908 2,607 3,197 Costs of Sales 747 1,119 960 1,196 1,335 1,874 2,409 Gross Profit 441 438 451 507 573 733 788 Sales and Administrative Expenses 161 129 128 151 168 271 290 Operating Income 280 309 323 356 405 462 498 Income before Tax 272 301 318 341 398 446 480 Tax -29 -128 -100 -110 -118 -151 -137 Net Income 243 173 218 231 280 295 343 EBITDA 351 432 415 460 502 598 629 As of today, the company strategy focuses on the following aspects: continue a gradual geographic diversification, especially in the Southeast, the development of higher value housing, higher house prices, and institutional strengthening. The Company seeks to reach similar average house pricing to those recorded before the 2008 crisis; which can be seen through the rise in house prices since 2011 (Graph 4). By December 2014, the company had over 435 hectares of total land, which represents a 4 year reserve according to units sold in 2014. Company policies maintain that a 4 year reserve should be kept at all times. Graph 4 $332,625 Average House Price $259,122 $245,053 $257,097 $261,744 $303,149 $274,159 CADU – CORPOVAEL’S – Structure: CORPOVAEL (Holding) 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014e Developing Companies 99.99% CADU Inmobiliaria S.A. De C.V. CADU Inm. CADU Inm. CADU Inm. CADU Inm. In 2014, the government announced their plan to support house developers through subsidies (See Background Section). This can clearly be seen as CADU sold 72% of their houses with this subsidy (Table #). As a result, the company was able to grow substantially in 2014, while the construction sector and other developers hardly did; from 2013 to 2014, the company increased the number of houses sold by 14%, reaching 10,359 units and their revenues by 22.6%. Also, this support has allowed the company to gradually increase the selling price of houses. The company at the moment has great dependence on external financing, however if they can increase their revenues margin (through the rise in house prices) they may become less dependent on these financings. Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 5 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 CADU’s Developments: Houses (Units) Location / Name of Project 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CANCUN VILLAS DEL MAR I 1,129 VILLAS DEL MAR II 836 850 216 166 141 136 0 878 1,321 1,137 1,215 1,280 94 2,934 2,208 1,222 415 0 476 714 1,125 1,977 2,308 37 PASEOS DEL MAR 0 2,812 RESIDENCIAL 0 53 VILLAS DEL MAR V 0 1,255 VILLAS DEL MAR III VILLAS OTOCH PARAISO 1r 572 VILLAS OTOCH PARAISO 108 TOTAL CANCUN 2,537 5,138 4,459 3,650 3,748 3,724 4,251 881 2,332 1,298 1,083 746 99 0 0 1,239 1,705 2,584 2,636 2,788 3,330 0 0 741 201 RIVIERA MAYA VILLAS DEL SOL 166 VILLAS DEL SOL Playa del Carmen (DD) TOTAL RIVIERA MAYA 0 0 881 2,332 JALISCO Altus Bosques 244 54 13 ALTUS QUINTAS 155 224 78 0 Cielito Lindo Las Trojes 267 Usada TOTAL JALISCO 60 109 222 60 850 690 278 91 0 0 757 1,407 0 0 0 0 757 1,407 168 269 443 99 503 582 EDO. DE MEXICO ZUMPANGO TOTAL EDO. DE MEXICO BAJIO Aguascalientes 31 León TOTAL BAJIO 2,537 0 0 168 269 946 681 5,416 5,431 6,150 6,713 9,065 10,359 # Houses Sold vs. Houses sold with Subsidies 2011 2012 2013 2014 Revenue per House # House Sold 1,581 1,757 2,492 3,140 6,150 6,713 9,067 10,359 # Houses with Subsidies / Subsidies Total Average Price 257,097 261,744 275,590 303,149 41% 30% 72% 2,776 2,715 7,433 Company’s Key Financial Indicators: Operating Income EBITDA $463 $598 $499 $401 $280 2008 $309 $323 2009 2010 $356 $432 $415 2009 2010 $460 $629 $502 $351 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 2011 2012 2013 2014 6 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector 3 Mar. 18, 2015 EBITDA Margin Operational Margin 24% 30% 23% 21% 20% 21% 28% 29% 27% 26% 23% 18% 20% 16% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 Interest Coverage Total Liabilities /Equity 2.3 2010 6 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 4.8 1.6 4.3 3.8 3.8 2009 2010 4.7 3.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 Total Debt / EBITDA 2.4 2014 2 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.9 1 2009 2013 2.1 1.9 1.8 2008 2012 Net Debt / EBITDA 2.4 1.5 2011 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Negative Cash Flow Analysis: Like other homebuilders in Mexico, CADU faces a challenging operating environment characterized by the strong competition. The company depends greatly on its cash flow for the ability to meets its financial obligations of both its CBs and Bank Credits. In the past, the company has issued new debt as well as the renewal of bank credits to be able to amortize outstanding amounts and interests. In 2014 the company saw a negative net cash flow, mainly due to heavy investments made by the company in order to replenish inventories consumed in the last quarter of 2013, and also due to the investment in three major developments, Paseo del Mar, Las Trojes, and Villas del Mar Plus, whose charters began in June, August, and September respectively. In the months of October, November, and December 2014, there have been credits for 3,851 homes, meaning that the house titles of the last three months of the year accounted for 34.6% of total credits granted. The cash generation of the last quarter was MP $14mn which amounted to an available accumulated cash equivalent of MP $282 mn. (Graph 5): Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 7 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 Cash Equivalent at End of Period (EoP) Cash & Equivalents (EoP) Increment in Cash & Equivalents $282,094 $245,962 $175,126 $160,323 $14,377.00 ($21,755.00) 1T14 2T14 3T14 4T14 ($92,591.00) ($107,394.00) The cash equivalent of MP $282 mn, assures the Company’s ability to fully pay interest and amortize the outstanding MP $150 mn of CADU 12, plus additional short term bank credit interests. It is expected that by the end of the year cash available will be positive, however, given the company’s cash flow and next maturities, we believe CADU will have to carry out a bond issuance within this or the next year. Another alternative is to refinance its debt through new bank credits; in either case, the refinance will be necessary to have available cash. The issuance would most likely be used to amortize the second payment of CADU 12 or first amortization payment of CADU 14, just as it happened last year. a. Financing Sources: Bank liabilities increased by 29%, in December 2014 compared to December 2013, from MP $827.7 mn to MP $1,070 mn Total debt, including CBs by December 2014 increased 34.8%, from MP $1127.7 mn to MP $1,520 mn Net debt increased 43.95% going from MP $860 mn in December 2013 to MP $1,237.9mn in December 2014 Debt is composed 50.1% in bridge loans, CBs in the Mexican Market make up 23.6%, 17.9% in financing for working capital and the remaining 8.4% aimed at the acquisition of land reserves. The short-term debt represents 20% of the total, including the capital payment of the first debt issuance. Bank Credits: Million Pesos Amounts Due 2015 2016 2017 $270.5 $485.3 $314.2 Debt Issuances Outstanding Amount: Million Pesos 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 CADU 12 CADU 14 Total Outstanding $300 $150 $300 $450 $0* $300 $300 $0 $150 $150 $0 $150 $150 $300 *CADU 12 fully amortizes on April 2015 Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 8 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 Bond Issuance Characteristics: CADU 14: On July 17, 2014 the company successfully conducted its second bond issuance in the Mexican Stock Exchange with a 1.88 times the demand offered. The ticker is "CADU14" and the amount issued was $ 300 million, for a term of three years, at a rate of 250 bps above TIIE28. The notes have a Partial Guarantee by the SHF* for up to 50% of principal and interest to the holders of the Certificates. Fitch Ratings gave an A- rating to the issuance while Moody’s considered a A3.mx (A-). Amortization of the bonds will be conducted through two payments, 50% in July 2016 and July 2017. Resources of the issuance were destined for working capital (MP $65 million) and MP $140.8 for the first amortization payment regarding the first bond issuance. CADU 12: On April 24, 2012, the company carried out its first debt issuance in the Mexican. The ticker is "CADU12" and the amount issued was $ 300 million, for a term of three years, at a rate of 400 bps above TIIE28. The notes have a Partial Guarantee by NAFIN for up to 48% of principal to the holders of the Certificates. Fitch Ratings gave an A- rating to the issuance while Moody’s considered a A3.mx (A-). The first capital amortization was carried out in April 2014 representing 50% of the total amount, while the remaining 50% will be conducted at its maturity on the 24 of April 2015. b. Debt Maturity Profile: Total Debt and Maturities Bank Credits CBs Amort Interests* Current 1 year 2 years $270 $150 $100.2 $485 $150 $78.2 $314 $150 $31.9 $635 $464 $421 2015 2016 2017 *Estimation based on current bank credits and CBs and Actinver's TIIE 28 prediction for next 3 years c. Covenants relating to CADU’s debt The company has the following contractual limitations related to its bond issuances: CADU12: 1) Interest coverage ratio must be greater than 2. By the end of 2014 the interest coverage ratio was 4.7x 2) The ratio of debt to EBITDA must be less than 3. By the end of 2014, Total Debt / EBITDA was 2.4x 3) The ratio of Bank and CBs (debt bonds) and equity must be below 2. By the end of 2014 the ratio was [1.28] Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 9 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 CADU 14 4) That the leverage ratio measured as total liabilities by the equity in any quarter may not exceed 3.0. At September 30, 2014 the ratio was 1.79 5) That the ratio of net debt (debt with cost minus available cash) to EBITDA should not exceed 3.5. At September 30, 2014 Net debt / EBITDA ratio was 2.42 d. CADU’s Ratings Moody’s assigned the global rating of “Ba3” and a local rating of “A3.mx” while Fitch Ratings gave the local grade of “A”. These indicate low expectation of default risk relative to other issuers or obligations in the same country. However, macroeconomic volatility or poor results even for a short period may affect the capacity for timely repayment. Positive Rating Drivers considered by the Agencies: Substantial geographic concentration in Quintana Roo and its tourism-centered economy. The company has a solid structure than enables it to face a competitive and tough environment. CADU’s ratings consider its market leadership in the cities of Cancun and Playa del Carmen; this in terms of number of credits by INFONAVIT, with a market share of 44.7% and 62.2% respectively. At current production levels, the company has sufficient land reserve for housing over the next four years. Also, current land reserve of the company complies with the requirements of the authority so the units built continue to be subject to the subsidies regulations. Leading positioning in its main market Efficient operation that results in strong profitability Mortgage interest rates continue to drop, so it expected to favor the construction sector and the acquisition of mortgage credits Main negative factors considered by the rating agencies: Even though the company has increased it’s geographically diversification in the past years (Hence the raise in the corporate rating since past years), it is still very concentrated and dependent on few regions. Due to the short term debt obligations, the company is constantly under liquidity duress Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 10 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 3. Cash Flow Forecast For the following projections we estimated an annual growth of 7% in total revenues. The reason for this being that the construction sector will have a moderate growth of 3.6% and INFONAVIT credit grants will only increase by 3.6% for 2015. This growth is a national estimation, and the areas where the company operates have a history of higher credit demand than that of the national. Also, in 2014 there was an income growth of 22.6% but most of the houses sold contained a subsidy from the government. We expect that the demand for mortgage loans by 2015 will drop. Cadu: Estimated Cash Flow Thousands Ps. Earnings before taxes Depreciation Interest expenses related to Cost of Sales Cash flow from Net Income 2013 445,597 6,671 149,586 606,402 2014 480,282 7,480 122,741 606,364 2015e 494,797 8,378 91,635 594,810 2016e 549,484 9,383 71,174 630,041 2017e 613,556 10,509 29,000 653,064 Working Capital -Increase (+decr.) Clients -Increase (+decr.) Inventories -Increase (+decr.) Receivables Increase (decr.) Suppliers Increase (decr.) Other Liabilities Increase (decr.) Taxes -287,601 -73,205 -233,706 8,345 22,337 118,831 -130,203 -722,751 176,190 -542,924 -101,137 32,576 -157,622 -129,834 -512,725 -2,790 -249,457 -18,103 29,318 -141,860 -129,834 -511,930 -2,901 -271,908 -6,000 26,387 -127,674 -129,834 -528,389 -3,017 -296,380 -8,000 23,748 -114,906 -129,834 Net Operating Cash Flow Fixed Assets Other Earned Interest Capex New Financing from Banks New debt issuances Other credit Bank Debt amortization Bond amortization Dividends Interest Expenses Other liabilities Total Financing Activities Increase (Decr.) Cash and Equivalents Cash at the beginning Cash at the end 318,801 -116,387 82,085 118,111 124,675 -9,778 0 -9,778 -31,975 4,139 -27,836 -31,975 4,139 -27,836 -31,975 4,139 -27,836 -31,975 4,139 -27,836 2,199,827 0 0 -1,992,318 0 -215,131 -139,794 488 -146,928 2,526,481 295,857 0 -2,284,479 -146,140 -100,000 -133,119 0 158,600 0 400,000 0 -270,497 -150,000 -103,907 -100,698 0 -225,103 700,000 0 0 -485,269 -150,000 -115,392 -78,213 0 -128,874 550,000 0 0 -314,232 -150,000 -128,847 -31,868 0 -74,946 162,095 105,622 267,717 14,377 267,717 282,094 -170,854 282,094 111,240 -38,599 111,240 72,641 21,892 72,641 94,533 4. Industry Analysis a. Background: Since 2010, the housing industry experienced a period of transition to new policies that required longer working capital cycles. In previous years, the housing development model favored the funding for new housing without taking in consideration the environmental, economic and urbanization impact. This was exploited by the development industry for the production of affordable housing in increasingly remote and far from developed urban centers places where the land is cheaper. This model of extended and sparse city resulted in high costs for both the public and the government. The presidential election in 2012 created new policies and made operational Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 11 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 changes to the heads of the major sector entities (INFONAVIT & FOVISSSTE), which caused operational and funding delays. Furthermore, developers would now have to comply with new standards which led many to believe that the reclassification of land reserves could impact the land value. The political and operational changes increased the uncertainty in the sector, and as a result, commercial banks reduced exposure towards the sector while grants suffered major delays affecting housing demand. This set off a challenging environment that ultimately resulted in the failure of some of the largest companies in the sector. House developers such as URBI, HOMEX, and GEO faced liquidity problems and an incapacity to meet their debt obligations as its financial structure did not allow them to adapt immediately to the new regulations in Mexico. As a consequence of the harsh environment the developing companies faced in the last years, the federal government provided support to the sector. First, the SHF implemented a MP 15,000 million budget to support financial institutions, so this in turn could lend to the developers and the SHF would absorb 30% of first losses. The government also granted syndicated credits through developing banks to the developers for the construction of houses – CADU was authorized a credit of MP 1,000 million in august 2013). Lastly, it incremented the federal budget for housing subsidies to MP 12,000 million for 2014, a 40% increase from 2013. It was not until the end of 2013 that the sector changed its downward tendency when, as mentioned above, housing subsidies increased and the federal government announced the disposal of MP $12,000 million for subsidies in 2014. Funding for house purchase presented a recovery in 2014, but was still less than the annual performance recorded in Mexico in the period 2000 to 2012. During 2014, mortgage financing in Mexico behaved as follows: INFONAVIT placed 556 000 credits (5% higher than 2013), amounting to MP 110,000 million, up 12% in 2013. FOVISSSTE placed 87 000 credits, with an investment of MP 38,500 million, 12.5% higher than 2013. SHF originated 204,000 credits in the amount of MP 17,700 million, exceeding by 32% to 2013. Commercial banks granted 16,000 new housing loans, with an investment of MP 122.300 billion, 12.4% more than in 2013. Currently both the government and the developers are focused on improving conditions for access to various housing options, generating new structures such as house rentals, second house purchase, a second loan, and greater coverage to nontraditional segments. The new housing model pretends to: Encourage housing in urban centers. Development of vertical housing. Improve the quality of urban and rural housing and social environment to reduce the housing deficit. Diversify the supply of quality housing. Generate better credit subsidy arrangements. Financing and housing subsidy for house rentals. Second mortgage lending. Better arrangements for public workers (FOVISSSTE) through cofinancing structures with commercial banks and / or development banks. New funding structures under fixed rates instead of indexed rates (UDIS). c. Perspective for the housing sector: We believe that the changes announced this year by the government in housing will be an additional factor to improve Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 12 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 housing demand over the next years. Regarding the housing deficit, 5.6% of households will ask for a credit, representing 714.522 credits, an increase of 9.9% in 2015 93,252 families are expected to demand a housing loan with better terms regarding their current housing. This represents a 4.2% grow Origination Cures (those who are rejected to acquire a mortgage and they are authorized subsequently as a result of an improvement in their credit profile) will increase by 7.2% which translate to 34.292 credits According to the SHF, only the demand for household formation will reduce; 3.17% in annual terms, totaling 317.414 Housing demand by component, 2015 (number of households and percentage) Component 2014 2015 % Household formation 329,556 317,414 -3.7% Housing deficit 650,325 714,522 9.9% Housing credit-improvement 89,500 93,252 4.2% Origination cures 32,000 34,292 7.2% 1,101,381 1,159,480 5.3% Total Demand This year it is estimated that households will demand 1,159,480 of some sort of credit for housing; this demand will impact slightly more than 4.5 million people and represents a 5.3% increase from 2014. Total demand is composed of four sections : Number of Credits Type of Credit 2014 2015 Acquisition 579,036 615,109 Improvements 413,988 443,623 7.2% Autoproduction 108,357 100,748 -7.0% 1,101,381 1,159,480 5.3% Total credits % 6.2% Number of credits per type, 2015 Acquisition Improvements Autoproduction Total Composition % Infonavit 380,000 280,000 0 660,000 57% Fovissste 50,000 20,000 0 70,000 6% Bank 130,000 80,000 40,748 250,748 22% Other entities 55,109 63,623 60,000 178,732 15% Total 615,109 443,623 100,748 1,159,480 100% There is a housing shortage of 15.3 million homes, of which 3,000,000 are to be reintegrated. This year, the federal government plans to reintegrate between 47 000 and 57 000 houses. CONAPO estimates, the population will continue to grow until 2044, so it is expected that demand for housing will continue to rise for at least the next 20 years. For 2015 there will be an investment of 370 billion pesos for the housing sector Increased flexibility in eligibility criteria for grants Better conditions for mortgage credits to the users by INFONAVIT and FOVISSSTE, including greater amounts and credits in pesos, and lower interest payments Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 13 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 Number of Credit Origination Estimation INFONAVIT 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 380 390 391 392 42 43 43 43 394 43 125 129 129 129 130 400 395 390 385 213 218 219 220 221 380 375 370 2014 2015 Below 4 TMS* 2016 4 to 11 TMS* 2017 2018 Above 11 TMS* *TMS= Times Minimum Salaries (Veces Salario Minimo VSM) The tourism sector in Quintana Roo: CADU focuses 47% of its business in the state of Quintana Roo, covering the low income sector, which in turn is highly linked to jobs relating to the tourism sector in the state. Quintana Roo has seen an increase in its tourism indicators which means more jobs and potential business to CADU (It is worth pointing out that the figures presented bellow do not take into consideration the month of December 2014): The state increased the number of tourists from 2013 to November 2014 by 10.8%, reaching a total of 13.1 million tourists Occupancy rates in hotels increased by an average of 3.5% from 2013 The cash input into the state by November 2014 had increased by 9.5% from 2013, reaching USD $7.5bn By the end of 2013, the state’s GDP was of MP $225 bn. out of which tertiary activities, those associated to tourism, made up 86% of the total. Quintana Roo contributed with 1.4% of the total national GDP. d. Macroeconomic Scenario According to the Banxico forecasts for economic activity in its latest report, the expected growth for the economy in Mexico for 2014 was between 2.5% and 3.5%, slightly below its previous forecast of 2.0% -2.8%. For the years 2015 and 2016 a recovery in GDP expected rates of between 3.0% to 4.0% and 3.2% to 4.2% respectively. Recent figures show a change in trend in the construction sector, where more than 290 billion dollars and more than 1.1 million in funding credits were invested in housing. The third quarter of 2014 was one of the best in a matter of economic growth for the construction industry, growing 4% over the same period of 2013 derived from the major related work and a rise in demand for building materials. The Mexican economy as a whole barely registered a 2.2% advance in the same period. The housing credit portfolio of INFONAVIT registered an upturn in the average annual growth during the last quarter of 2014, after months of a downward tendency, registering a 3.0% growth. Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 14 Mar. 18, 2015 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Industrial Activity Growth 2008=100 base (Construction Housing Credits Annual Variation ) INFONAVIT vs. Commercial Banks Source: Banxico 2014 was a year of recovery for the housing and construction sector, where 412,300 housing units were registered, 35.2% more than the record low in 2013 of 305,000 units. At year end, it had registered 297,000 new homes and 263,000 completed homes, representing an increase of 34.2% compared to the same period in 2013 (Figure #). 5. Bond Valuation Issuance Type Out. Amount Recommendation Mill. Ps. Spread pp YTM % Coupon % Maturity date FITCH Moodys Dirty price 91_CADU_14 Floating Amortizing Bond 2.5 5.8 5.8 13/07/2017 A+ (mex) A3.mx 100.2 300 Buy 91_CADU_12 Floating Amortizing Bond 2.5 5.8 7.3 24/04/2015 A+ (mex) A3.mx 100.5 150 Hold * *We recommend to Hold possession until maturity, which is within one month from the date of this publication 6. Relative Value Ticket: Amount: Issuance Date: Maturity Date: Term: Coupon: Spread: S&P/Fitch/Moody’s/HR: Guarantee Amortization: Anticipated Amortization: Make-whole: CADU 12 $300 million. April 27, 2012 April 24, 2015. 3.0 years TIIE 28 + 4.00% 0.00% nd / A+(mex) / A3.mx / nd Has a partial unconditionally and irrevocably guaranteed from Nacional Financiera by 48% of the outstanding principal. Partial: 50% within two years, and the remaining 50% at maturity Not Applicable. Not Applicable. Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 15 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Use of Proceeds: Commentary: Ticket: Amount: Issuance Date: Maturity Date: Term: Coupon: Spread: S&P/Fitch/Moody’s/HR: Guarantee Amortization: Anticipated Amortization: Make-whole: Use of Proceeds: Commentary: Mar. 18, 2015 Working Capital, Purchase of land, and debt payment According to the relative value analysis and considering the rating of A- for the issuance, CADU 12 is found above the curve of its comparables. For this reason we recommend to hold possession of the bond; primarily because of its maturity within one month and guarantee for the principal amortization and because of its attractive rate CADU 14 $ 300 million. July 17, 2014 July 13, 2017. 3.0 years TIIE 28 + 2.50% 0.00% nd / A+(mex) / A3.mx / nd It has collateral trust, whose obligations are secured by a guarantee of timely payment (GPO) for up to 50% of the unpaid balance of principal and interest, granted by SHF. Partial: 50% within two years, and the remaining 50% at maturity. Not Applicable. Not Applicable. Working Capital, Purchase of land, and debt payment According to the relative value analysis and considering the rating of A- for the issuance, CADU 14 is located slightly under the curve of its comparables. In spite of this, we recommend to buy or maintain position since its rate is attractive and it contains a GPO. Annex- Financial Projections Cadu: Estimated Income Statement Thousand Ps. Net Sales 2013 2014 2,607,704 3,197,390 2015e 3,421,207 2016e 3,763,328 2017e 4,139,661 Cost of Sales Gross Mg. Gross Income Operating expenses 1,873,552 2,408,512 72% 75% 734,152 788,878 270,741 289,972 2,577,108 75% 844,099 332,807 2,834,819 75% 928,509 366,088 3,118,300 75% 1,021,360 402,697 519,670 511,292 -16,496 494,797 148,439 346,358 571,804 562,422 -12,938 549,484 164,845 384,639 629,173 618,664 -5,108 613,556 184,067 429,489 EBITDA Operating Income Financial cost Earnings before taxes Taxes Net Income 469,795 463,124 -18,101 445,597 151,143 294,454 Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 506,386 498,906 -18,624 480,282 136,896 343,386 16 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 Cadu: Estim ated Balance Sheet Thousands pesos Short Term Assets Cash and equivalents Clients Other receivables Inventories Long term Assets Total Assets Short Term Liabilities Banks Bonds Suppliers Taxes Other short term assets Other Long Term Liabilites Banks Bonds Deferred taxes Total Liabilities Cadu: Estim ated Leverage Ratios Mill. Ps. Gross Debt Cash and equivalents Net Debt Operating Cash Flow EBITDA Net Debt / Operating Cash Flow Net Debt / EBITDA 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e 2,774,501 3,274,528 3,295,970 3,526,180 3,839,469 267,717 282,093 111,240 72,641 94,533 176,364 69,740 72,530 75,431 78,448 69,566 72,897 91,000 85,000 77,000 2,228,819 2,771,743 3,021,200 3,293,108 3,589,488 49,966 56,678 56,678 56,678 56,678 2,824,467 3,331,206 3,352,648 3,582,858 3,896,147 705,136 261,144 147,273 111,348 25,169 160,202 582,205 270,497 146,155 143,924 1,648 19,981 589,894 270,497 146,155 173,242 616,281 270,497 146,155 199,629 640,029 270,497 146,155 223,377 1,070,204 566,596 148,584 355,024 1,775,340 1,456,484 799,501 295,841 361,142 2,038,689 1,435,987 529,004 545,841 361,142 2,025,881 1,500,718 743,735 395,841 361,142 2,116,999 1,586,486 979,503 245,841 361,142 2,226,515 2013 1,123,597 267,717 855,880 2014 1,511,994 282,093 1,229,901 2015e 1,491,497 111,240 1,380,257 2016e 1,556,228 72,641 1,483,587 2017e 1,641,996 94,533 1,547,463 318,801 469,795 -116,387 506,386 82,085 519,670 118,111 571,804 124,675 629,173 2.7 1.8 -10.6 2.4 16.8 2.7 12.6 2.6 12.4 2.5 Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 17 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 Cadu: Estimated Cash Flow Thousands Ps. Earnings before taxes Depreciation Interest expenses related to Cost of Sales Cash flow from Net Income 2013 445,597 6,671 149,586 606,402 2014 480,282 7,480 122,741 606,364 2015e 494,797 8,378 91,635 594,810 2016e 549,484 9,383 71,174 630,041 2017e 613,556 10,509 29,000 653,064 Working Capital -Increase (+decr.) Clients -Increase (+decr.) Inventories -Increase (+decr.) Receivables Increase (decr.) Suppliers Increase (decr.) Other Liabilities Increase (decr.) Taxes -287,601 -73,205 -233,706 8,345 22,337 118,831 -130,203 -722,751 176,190 -542,924 -101,137 32,576 -157,622 -129,834 -512,725 -2,790 -249,457 -18,103 29,318 -141,860 -129,834 -511,930 -2,901 -271,908 -6,000 26,387 -127,674 -129,834 -528,389 -3,017 -296,380 -8,000 23,748 -114,906 -129,834 Net Operating Cash Flow Fixed Assets Other Earned Interest Capex New Financing from Banks New debt issuances Other credit Bank Debt amortization Bond amortization Dividends Interest Expenses Other liabilities Total Financing Activities Increase (Decr.) Cash and Equivalents Cash at the beginning Cash at the end 318,801 -116,387 82,085 118,111 124,675 -9,778 0 -9,778 -31,975 4,139 -27,836 -31,975 4,139 -27,836 -31,975 4,139 -27,836 -31,975 4,139 -27,836 2,199,827 0 0 -1,992,318 0 -215,131 -139,794 488 -146,928 2,526,481 295,857 0 -2,284,479 -146,140 -100,000 -133,119 0 158,600 0 400,000 0 -270,497 -150,000 -103,907 -100,698 0 -225,103 700,000 0 0 -485,269 -150,000 -115,392 -78,213 0 -128,874 550,000 0 0 -314,232 -150,000 -128,847 -31,868 0 -74,946 162,095 105,622 267,717 14,377 267,717 282,094 -170,854 282,094 111,240 -38,599 111,240 72,641 21,892 72,641 94,533 Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 18 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 Equity, Economic, Quantitative and Fixed Income Research Departments Análisis Deuda Araceli Espinosa Elguea, PhD Directora de Análisis de Deuda (52) 55 1103 -66000 x6641 [email protected] Jesús Viveros Hernández Análisis de Deuda (52) 55 1103 -66000 x6649 [email protected] Análisis de Deuda (52) 55 1103-6600x1110 [email protected] Director Análisis Fundamental (52) 55 1103-6600x1193 [email protected] Martín Lara Telecomunicaciones, Medios y Financiero (52) 55 1103-6600x1840 [email protected] Carlos Hermosillo Bernal Consumo (52) 55 1103-6600x4134 [email protected] Pablo Duarte de León Fibras y Hoteles (52) 55 1103-6600x4334 [email protected] Ramón Ortiz Reyes Cemento, Construcción y Concesiones (52) 55 1103-6600x1835 [email protected] Federico Robinson Bours Carrillo Energía, Conglomerados, Industriales y Minería (52) 55 1103-6600x4127 [email protected] Juan Enrique Ponce Telecomunicaciones, Medios y Financiero (52) 55 1103-6600x1693 jponce@actinver,com.mx Ana Cecilia González Rodríguez Fibras y Hoteles (52) 55 1103-6600x4130 [email protected] Enrique Octavio Camargo Delgado Cemento, Construcción y Concesiones, Energía, Conglomerados, Industriales y Minería (52) 55 1103-6600x1836 [email protected] Ismael Capistrán Bolio Director Análisis Económico y Cuantitativo (52) 55 1103-6600x1487 [email protected] Jaime Ascencio Aguirre Economía y Mercados Raúl Márquez Pardinas Análisis Fundamental Gustavo Terán Durazo, CFA Analistas Senior Analistas Junior Análisis Económico y Cuantitativo [email protected] (52) 55 1103-6600 x793325 Santiago Hernández Morales Análisis Cuantitativo [email protected] (52) 55 1103-6600 x4133 Roberto Galván González Análisis Técnico [email protected] (52) 55 1103 -66000x5039 Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 19 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector Mar. 18, 2015 Disclaimer Guide for recommendations on investment in the companies under coverage included or not, in the Mexican Stock Exchange main Price Index (IPC) Strong Buy with an extraordinary perspective. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuations of stock and/or prospects for the sector are EXTREMELY FAVORABLE Buy. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the stock’s valuation and / or prospects for the sector are VERY FAVORABLE Neutral. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuation of stock and / or sector ARE NEUTRAL OR FAVORABLE but with a similar perspective to the IPC Belowmarket. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuation of stock and / or sector outlook ARE NOT POSITIVE Sell. According to the analyst, in the next twelve months, the valuation of stock and / or sector outlook ARE NEGATIVE, or likely to worsen In review with positive outlook In review with negative or unfavorable perspective Important Statements. a) Of the Analysts: “The analysts in charge of producing the Analysis Reports: Jaime Ascencio Aguirre; Mauricio Arellano Sampson; Ismael Capistrán Bolio; Pablo Enrique Duarte de León; Araceli Espinosa Elguea; David Foulkes González; Roberto Galván González; Carlos Hermosillo Bernal; Santiago Hernández Morales; Martín Roberto Lara Poo; Ramón Ortiz Reyes; Federico Robinson Bours Carrillo; Gustavo Adolfo Terán Durazo; Jesús Viveros Hernández, declare”: 1. "All points of view about the issuers under coverage correspond exclusively to the responsible analyst and authentically reflect his vision. All recommendations made by analysts are prepared independently of any institution, including the institution where the services are provided or companies belonging to the same financial or business group. The compensation scheme is not based or related, directly or indirectly, with any specific recommendation and the remunerationis only received from the entity which the analysts provide their services. 2. "None of the analysts with coverage of the issuers mentioned in this report holds any office, position or commission at issuers underhis coverage, or any of the people who are part of the Business Group or consortium to which they belong. They have neither held any position during the twelve months prior to the preparation of this report. " 3. "Recommendations on issuers, made by the analyst who covers them, are based on public information and there is no guarantee of their assertiveness regarding the performance that is actually observed in the values object of the recommendation" 4. "Analysts maintain investments subject to their analysis reports on the following issuers: AC, ALFA, ALPEK, ALSEA, AMX,AZTECA, CEMEX, CHDRAUI, FEMSA, FIBRAMQ, FINDEP, FUNO, GENTERA, GFREGIO, GRUMA, ICA, IENOVA, KOF, LAB, LIVEPOL, MEXCHEM, OHLMEX, TLEVISA,SORIANA, SPORTS, VESTA, WALMEX. Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 20 CADU: High Return Investment Opportunity in the House Development Sector b) Mar. 18, 2015 On Actinver Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. Grupo Financiero Actinver 1. Actinver Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V. GrupoFinanciero Actinver, under any circumstance shall ensure the sense of the recommendations contained in the reports of analysis to ensure future business relationship. 2. All Actinver Casa de Bolsa, SA de C.V. GrupoFinanciero Actinver business units can explore and do business with any company mentioned in documents of analysis. All compensation for services given in the past or in the future, received by Actinver Casa de Bolsa, SA de C.V. GrupoFinanciero Actinver by any company mentioned in this report has not had and will not have any effect on the compensation paid to the analysts. However, just like any other employee of Actinver Group and its subsidiaries, the compensation being enjoyed by our analysts will be affected by the profitability gained by Actinver Group and its subsidiaries. 3. At the end of each of the previous three months, Actinver Casa de Bolsa, SA de C.V. Actinver Financial Group, has not held any investments directly or indirectly in securities or financial derivatives, whose underlying are Securities subject of the analysis reports, representing one percent or more of its portfolio of securities, investment portfolio, outstanding of the Securities or the underlying value of the question, except for the following: * AEROMEX, BOLSA A, FINN 13, FSHOP 13, SMARTRC14. 4. Certain directors and officers of Actinver Casa de Bolsa, SA de C.V. GrupoFinanciero Actinver occupy a similar position at the following issuers: AEROMEX, MASECA, AZTECA, ALSEA, FINN, MAXCOM, SPORTS, FSHOP and FUNO. This report will be distributed to all persons who meet the profile to acquire the type of values that is recommended in its content. Análisis de Renta Fija Actinver - Creando Ideas con Valor 21