jozef salerno

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jozef salerno
Targmna babilina axobaZem
gamoqveynda 2002 wels
feisis universitetis
ekonomikis profesori. mizesis institutis
ufrosi mecnieri muSaki da yovelkvartaluri Jurnal “avstriuli
ekonomikis” redaqtori
konfiskatoruli deflacia: argentina
rCeuli finansuri mimomxilvelebi, politologebi, federaluri xelisufleba da makroekonomistTa nawilic ki, panikiT arian Sepyrobilni, radgan SeniSnes, rom bolo xuTi Tvis manZilze amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis ekonomikas
fasebis deflacia siosaviT msubuqad arxevs. magram, is faqti, rom argentinaSi
konfiskatoruli deflaciis qariSxali boboqrobs, maTi yuradRebis miRma
darCa.
konfiskatoruli deflacia deflaciis gansakuTrebul kategorias warmoadgens. mMas politikuri xelisufleba mimdinare sabanko-sakredito deflaciis SesaCereblad axvevs Tavs ekonomikas, rac, nawilobriv, sabanko rezervebze
agebul arajansaR finansur sistemas likvidaciiT emuqreba. konfiskatoruli
deflacia bankis meanabreebis mier maT mimdinare da Semnaxvel depozitebze
Senaxul naRd fulze qonebrivi uflebis dakargvas niSnavs.
amJamad argentinaSi arsebuli viTareba konfiskatoruli deflaciis aSkara magaliTia. 1992 wels, hiperinflaciis kidev erTi dartymis Semdeg, argentinam Tavisi axali valuta _ peso _ SeerTebuli Statebis dolars miaba kursiT: 1 dolari _ 1 peso. pPeso-dolaris fiqsirebuli kursis am saxiT SesanarCuneblad argentinis centraluri banki dapirebas iZleoda, rom pirvelive
moTxovnisTanave Tavisuflad gadacvlida pesos dolarebze, an pesos banknotebsa da komerciul bankebSi arsebul pesos depozitebs 100 procentiT uzrunvelyofda dolaris rezervebiT.
samwuxarod, am gegmam, romelic saerTaSoriso kreditorebs sarwmunod eCvenebodaT, radgan is saerTaSoriso savaluto fondma moiwona da farulad misi
Tavdebobis garantias Seicavda, sabanko kreditis masiuri da inflaciuri eqspansia ver aRkveTa. rodesac investiciebSi Cadebuli dolarebi qveyanaSi didi
raodenobiT dagrovda, maT centralur bankamde miaRwies da mas komerciuli
bankebisTvis xelmisawvdomi rezervebis gazrdis saSualeba misces. Tavis mxriv,
komerciulma bankebma, rogorc nawilobrivi rezervirebis praqtikis mqone institutebma, mogvianebiT, TiToeuli axlad Semosuli dolarisa Tu pesos depozitebis xarjze SeTanxmebulad moaxdines sabanko kreditis inflacia.
amgvarad, 1991 wlidan 1994 wlis CaTvliT, argentinis fulis masa ( M1) weliwadSi saSualod 60 procentiT izrdeboda 1. 1995 wlisTvis fulis masa 5 procentze ufro naklebs Seadgenda, magram 1996 wels 15 procentamde, xolo 1997 wels
ki TiTqmis 20 procentamde gaizarda. 1998 wels, rodesac sasaqonlo fasebis inflaciis Sedegad peso realurad mkveTrad gaufasurda da ucxoelma investorebma swrafad dakarges rwmena, rom pesos devalvacia aRar moxdeboda, dolaris Semodineba Sewyda da inflaciuri bumi avismomaswaveblad SeCerda, radgan amave periodSi fulis masa daaxloebiT 1 procentiT gaizarda da ekonomika
krizisSi Cavarda. 1999 wels fulis masis zrda odnav negatiuri iyo, 2000 wels
ki igi TiTqmis 20 procentiT Semcirda.
2001 wlis ivnisis CaTvliT fulis masis wliuri done orniSna cifriT ganagrZobda klebas. 2001 wels adgilobrivma meanabreebma sabanko sistemisadmi
ndoba dakarges da sabanko kreditis seriozuli deflacia daiwyo _ sabanko
sistemam depozitebis 17 procenti, anu 14,5 miliardi dolari dakarga.
1. Frank Shostak, Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming Futures Daily Report (July 20, 2001)
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Tavisuflebis biblioTeka. krebuli V. “reformebi da Tavisufleba”
mxolod 2001 wlis 30 noembers, paraskev dRes, argentinis bankebidan depozitorebma 700 milionidan 2 miliard dolaramde (sxvadasxva monacemebiT) gaitanes. jer kidev paraskevamde, centralur banks 70 miliardi dolaris ekvivalenti dolarisa da konvertirebadi pesos depozitebis dasafarad mxolod 5,5
miliardi dolaris maragi hqonda.
Seqmnili viTarebis gamo, SabaTs, 1 dekembers, prezidentma fernando de la
ruam da ekonomikis ministrma domingo kavaliom finansuri sistemis dasacavad
da dolarze mibmuli kursis SesanarCuneblad iseTi strategia airCies, romelsac konfiskatoruli deflacia SeiZleba ewodos. kerZod, maT bankidan fulis
gatana SezRudes. momdevno 90 dRis ganmavlobaSi TiTo meanabres bankidan
kviraSi mxolod 250 dolaris gatana SeeZlo. 1000 dolarze meti naRdi fulis
ucxouri transferebic mkacrad iyo SezRuduli. yvelas ekrZaleboda gemiT an
TviTmfrinaviT naRdi fulis qveynidan gatana.
bolos, bankebs sesxebis pesoTi gacemis uflebas aRar aZlevdnen, mxolod
dolarSi unda gaecaT. dolari ki Zalian cota iyo. meanabreebs angariSsworebisTvis sabanko depozitebis gamoyeneba CekiT an sadebeto baraTebiT mainc
SeeZloT, magram es politika mZime dartyma iyo Raribi argentinelebisTvis,
romlebsac arc sadebeto da arc sakredito baraTebi ar gaaCndaT. isini umTavresad iseT depozitebs flobdnen, rasac CekiT ver gamoiyenebdnen.
rogorc mosalodneli iyo, kavalios mkacrma da saSiSma konfiskatorulma
deflaciam mZime dartyma miayena naRdi fuliT warmoebul biznessac da, erTerTi cnobis Tanaxmad, “sacalo vaWrobis paralizeba”2 gamoiwvia. aman kidev
ufro gaauaresa viTareba da male amboxi daiwyo, rasac, sabolood, 27 adamianis
sicocxle Seewira da kerZo biznesis milionobiT dolaris zarali mohyva. am
movlenebma sagangebo mdgomareobis gamocxadeba ganapiroba da, bolos, prezidenti de la rua iZulebuli gaxda vadamde ori wliT adre gadamdgariyo.
6 ianvars argentinis mTavrobam, axla ukve prezident eduardo dualdes da
ekonomikis ministris xorxe remes lenikovis meTaurobiT, aRiara, rom fiqsirebuli kursis SenarCuneba aRar SeeZlo da pesos 30 procentiani devalvacia
ganaxorciela. axali kursiT 1 dolari 1,40 pesos gautolda.N magram es kursi
realur viTarebas ar asaxavda _ realurad peso kidev ufro gaufasurebuli
iyo, radgan ASav bazarze dolari gacilebiT Zviri Rirda.
argentinis mTavroba amas mixvda, magram nacvlad imisa, rom winare inflaciisa da pesosadmi ndobis dakargvis Sedegad miRebuli viTareba eRiarebina da
pesos oficialuri gacvliTi kursi realuris adekvaturi gaexada, ekonomikaze
adre Tavsmoxveuli konfiskatoruli deflacia kidev ufro gaaZliera. mTavrobam 3 000 dolarze zeviT yvela Semnaxveli angariSi gayina, rac, sul cota, 67
miliard dolar sabanko depozits moicavda, romlidanac erTi mesamedi _ 43,5
miliardi dolarebSi, xolo danarCeni pesos saxiT iyo ganTavsebuli.
meanabreebs, visac angariSze 5000 dolarze meti ar hqonda, am gadawyvetilebidan erTi wlis Semdeg, 12 Tvis manZilze, nawil-nawil SeeZloT naRdi fulis gatana, xolo isini, visi depozitic ufro met Tanxas Seadgenda, fulis
ganaRdebas 2003 wlis seqtembramde ver SeZlebdnen, mere ki mxolod nawilnawil miiRebdnen ori wlis manZilze. ufro liberalurad moeqcnen pesos depozitebs, romelTa Rirebuleba dolarTan mimarTebaSi erTi mesamediT Semcirda
da, savaraudod, morigi devalvaciis safrTxe emuqreboda. meanabreebs TavianTi
depozitebis gamotanis ufleba ori Tvis Semdeg miecaT, magram nawil-nawil.
erT-erTi cnobis Tanaxmad, am periodis manZilze “iseTi martivi sabanko transaqciebi, rogoric Cekis ganaRdeba an sakredito baraTiT gadaxdaa, ubralo
argentinelebisTvis xelmiuwvdomeli iyo”3.
rogorc mister lenikovma aSkarad aRiara, faqtobrivad, konfiskatoruli
deflaciis es ukanaskneli raundi nawilobrivi sarezervo sistemis gakotrebisgan damcavi iaraRi iyo. is acxadebda: “Tu bankebi gakotrdeba, veravin
2 Reuters, "Riots and Looting in Argentina as Austerity Plan Bites," The New York Times on the Web, (December 19, 2001).
3 Larry Rohter, "Argentina Is Still Shaky Despite Currency Measures," The New York Times on the Web, (January 11, 2002).
jozef salerno, “konfiskatoruli deflacia: argentina”
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veRar gaitans Tavis depozits. arsebuli fuli sakmarisi ar aris yvela meanabris gasastumreblad“4. sabanko-sakredito deflacia, romlis SeCerebasac
lenikovi cdilobda, mxolod pesos gaufasurebis safrTxes qmnida, xolo konfiskatoruli deflacia fulad mimoqcevas uqadis mospobas da ekonomikas ukiduresad araefeqtiani daN primitiuli gacvlisa da izolirebuli warmoebisken
ubiZgebs, rac Sromis sazogadoebriv danawilebas Zirs uTxris.
maSin, rodesac akademiaSi, mediasa da nacionaluri biurokratiis maRal
eSelonebSi arsebobdnen adamianebi, romlebic, deflaciis SiSiT, konfiskatorul deflaciaze Tvalebs xuWavdnen an mas saimedo “mkacr RonisZiebas”
uwodebdnen, maTgan gansxvavebiT, konfiskatoruli deflaciis mravali rigiTi
msxverpli sworad afasebda momxdars da politikuri elitis saqciels bankebis
Zarcvas uwodebda, rac simarTle iyo.
ramona ruizi, pensioneri feiqari cariel bankomats uyviroda: “Cemi fulia
bankSi, Cemi!”5. erTi daudgeneli vinaobis qali ki mTavrobis warmomadgenels
eCxubeboda: “rogor bedavT Cemi danazogis warTmevas?” xose valensuela, argentineli gamyidveli, amtkicebda: “es igivea, rom jibidan fuli amogacalon” 6.
erTi argentineli biznesmeni gamwarebuli yviroda: “Cveni Tavisufleba fexqveS
iTeleba... vgrZnob, rom Cemi samoqalaqo uflebebi, Cemi kerZo sakuTrebis ufleba irRveva”7. bolos, argentinis profkavSirebis xelmZRvanelobamac ki mkacrad gaakritika “eris danazogebis mitacebis” aseTi politika 8.
samwuxarod, argentinis bankis bedSavi meanabreebisTvis saqme ufro garTulda. 1 ianvars prezidenti dualde, rodesac Tavisi movaleobis Sesrulebas
Seudga, sajarod dapirda xalxs, rom bankebi kontraqtiT nakisr valdebulebebs Seasrulebda da dolaris depozitebs dolariTve gascemda, magram ianvris
bolos man ganacxada, rom bankebs ufleba hqonda yvela saxis depoziti pesoTi
gaeca. gamomdinare iqidan, rom im droisTvis Tavisufal bazarze peso dolarTan mimarTebaSi ukve 40 procentiT iyo gaufasurebuli, es niSnavda, rom daaxloebiT 16 miliardi dolaris msyidvelobiTi unaris ekvivalenti dolaris depozitebis mqone meanabreebidan bankebze gadadioda 9.
raki konfiskatoruli deflacia kvlav moqmedebda da meanabreebs sakuTari
qonebis ukan dabruneba ar SeeZloT, maTi zarali miT ufro izrdeboda, rac
ufro ufasurdeboda peso. sabednierod, paraskevs, 1 Tebervals, argentinis
uzenaesma sasamarTlom STambeWdavi da riskiani nabiji gadadga meanabreebis
sasargeblod, rodesac erTsulovnad daadgina (xuTiT nulze, samma Tavi
Seikava), rom sabanko gayinvebi arakonstituciuri iyo, argumentebad ki is
faqtebi moiSvelia, rom is kerZo sakuTrebaze konstituciur uflebebs
“arRvevda”. aman gza gauxsna sabanko-sakredito deflacias, rac Zalian saWiro
iyo10.
SabaTs, 2 Tebervals, dualde, romlis mdgomareobac ukve Seryeuli iyo, televiziiT gamovida da ganacxada, rom sasamarTlo gadawyvetilebis miuxedavad,
momdevno orSabaT-samSabaTs bankebi ar imuSavebda. gaRizianebuli da aRSfoTebuli saSualo klasi xmauriT gamovida quCaSi. “Zirs yvela politikosi”, “dagvibruneT Cveni fuli”, yvirodnen isini11. magram dualde swrafad moego gons da
orSabaTs demonstraciulad gamosca administraciuli dadgenileba 180 dRiT
SeeCerebinaT yvela iuridiuli gadawyvetileba sabanko depozitebis gayinvis
Sesaxeb, paralelurad ki kongresSi Tavis mokavSireebs “viTomda korufciisa
4 I bid.
5 Anthony Faiola, "Argentina Restricts Bank Withdrawals," washingtonpost.com (December 2, 2001), p. A30.
6 David Luhnow, "Argentina Intensifies Defense of Peso-Dollar Link," The Wall Street Journal (December 3, 2001), p. A15.
7 Knight Ridder Newspapers, "Argentina in Cash Chaos: Government Orders Use of Debit Cards over Currency," arizonarepublic.com
(December 6, 2001).
8 Faiola, "Argentina Restricts Bank Withdrawals."
9 Marc Lifsher and John Hechinger, "Argentina Will Pay Bank Deposits in Pesos," The Wall Street Journal (January 21, 2002), p. A2
10 Mayra Pertossi, "Argentine Bank Freeze Deemed Illegal," Associated Press (February 1, 2001), dailynews.yahoo.com
11 BBC News, "Argentina `on brink of anarchy,' " (February 2, 2002), news.bbc.co.uk..
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Tavisuflebis biblioTeka. krebuli V. “reformebi da Tavisufleba”
da uvargisobisTvis” urCi uzenaesi sasamarTlos impiCmentis procesis daCqareba daavala12.
aseT SemTxvevaSi argentinis mTavrobis erTaderTi swori da efeqtiani gadawyvetileba iqneboda, rom mas Seqmnili realoba eRiarebina da Tavisi politika amis Sesabamisad Seecvala. realoba ki is iyo, rom sabanko depozitebi
aRar (da arc arasdros) warmoadgenda realuri pesosa da dolarebis mimarT nominaluri Rirebulebis mqone qonebriv valdebulebebs zemoT aRniSnuli fiqsirebuli kursiT. nawilobrivi rezervebis sabanko sistemaSi aRar arsebobda
valutis is raodenoba, rom depozitebi daefara.
ekonomikur realobaSi, bankis depozitebi sesxsa da sainvesticio
portfelze, maT Soris, naRdi fulis maragze uflebas niSnavs. amitom, yoveli
banki dauyovnebliv unda gadaeces mis meanabreebs, anu erToblivi
mmarTvelobis fondad unda gardaiqmnas. erToblivi mmarTvelobis fondSi
sakuTrebis ufleba, anu ”qonebrivi wili” misi winamorbedi institutis
sadepozito balansis mixedviT unda ganawildes yofil meanabreebs Soris.
amas Sedegad sabanko kreditis deflacia mohyveba, rac fulis masis erTjerad, swraf da mkveTr Semcirebas gamoiwvevs da savaluto bazris donemde daiyvans, rac xalxis xelSi da bankebSi arsebuli pesosa da dolaris rezervebis toli iqneba.
marTalia, nominaluri Rirebuleba da xelfasis done mkveTrad daiwevs, magram pesos Rirebuleba Sesabamisad gamyardeba, valutis gacvla da brunva aRdgeba da resursebisa da qonebrivi uflebebis ganawilebas isev sabazro procesebi warmarTavs.
12 Michelle Wallin and Jonathan Karp, "In Argentina, It's Duhalde against Judges," The Wall Street Journal (February 5, 2002), p. A12.