Mirae Asset LENS Q1 2014
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Mirae Asset LENS Q1 2014
MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 MIRAE ASSET LENS Mirae Asset Quarterly Newsletter from the Investment Team Welcome to Mirae Asset Lens, a quarterly newsletter by the investment team to share our knowledge and thoughts. The Mirae Asset Investment team strives hard to identify highly competitive business models with talented management teams. These are companies Q1 2014 capable of compounding value year after year; as they invest in their “moat-like” businesses – a business that has a sustainable competitive advantage which enables it to maintain or gain market share over time and achieve superior returns. We endeavor to look beyond the obvious, analyze things differently, while identifying trends and companies before they become market favorites. Our on-site visits provide us with the opportunity to take a deep dive into our core holdings as well as provide a valuable insight into the minds of consumers. This newsletter aims to highlight a small sample of our team efforts in Asia. We hope you enjoy reading it as much as we enjoyed researching and writing it! Chindonesia at a Crossroads For the developed markets, 2013 has been more of a story of monetary easing – how much more, less, and how long. In contrast, this year has marked the beginning of change or the possibility of major change in China, India, and Indonesia. China, India, and Indonesia, with a combined population of 2.8 billion—nearly 40% of the world’s total population— all need to adjust to deliver strong steady growth in the coming years. China, being a current account surplus nation, was not impacted by tapering fears but still Contributors faces the challenge of rebalancing from the credit-fuelled, investment-led growth model. With President Xi and Premier Li in command for the last 12 months, expectations ran high Mirae Asset Global Investments (HK) ahead of the Third Plenum in November. We believe that the overall direction of the reforms Asia Pacific Investment/Research Team towards the easing of bureaucratic controls will improve market access, the move of the Rahul Chadha Co-Chief Investment Officer David Glickman Head of AP Research Judiciary becoming increasingly linked to the central government and distancing from local governments, as well as the easing of the “Single Child Policy” to all represent positive signals. India and Indonesia will hold elections this year, and have different issues to address, mostly in the form of reducing bureaucracy and making infrastructure improvements, all with the goal of raising productivity for the longer term. Element Sun Investment Analyst In this edition of Mirae Asset Lens, we aim to give you a sample of our views on these Joao Cesar reforms or potential reforms, coupled with our on-the-ground research to understand the Investment Analyst current state of affairs and how these reforms may impact the status quo. 1 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 China’s 3rd Plenary Reform: What will this mean for China? Third Plenary Session; November 15, 2013, courtesy of Yahoo News, November 15th, 2013 In November 2013, China began to release details of reforms that were finalized at the Third Plenary Session, which is the Chinese government meeting that sets the tone and direction of the country for the next decade. Headlines around the world flashed that China was going to give the market a more significant role in the economy. But what are the finer details, how will this work, and how will it be implemented? Furthermore, how do we believe this alters our investment view? We have been of the view for a long We have been of the view for a long time that China was misallocating capital and labor, and time that China was misallocating adjusting the flow of each lever would help to improve productivity, profitability, and growth. capital and labor, and adjusting the flow Broadly speaking, the heart of the reforms attempt to tackle this misallocation. The four key of each lever would help to improve reforms are as follows: productivity, profitability, and growth. 1) Open Marketplace A more level playing field where public and private enterprise may compete. Currently, state-owned enterprise (SOE) banks are enjoying margins that are too high, and simply lend heavily to SOE companies at low rates, enabling capital to flow cheaply to inefficient companies and industries. The announced reform measures seek to liberalize the interest rate and foster the establishment of more privately held banks, which can compete to lower the cost of capital for strong private companies and raise the cost of capital for overleveraged, inefficient SOE companies. Administratively, the government seeks to be more investment friendly by streamlining approvals and opening more areas up for investment and competition. Private companies will be able to participate more alongside the public sector and SOEs to drive efficiency. In the same vein, market-based solutions will be used for environmental protection, such as mandating more pollution controls on polluting industries, and market based pricing systems for water, oil, natural gas, and electricity. 2) SOEs Reforms Incentives to align management performance and stakeholder value. Members of the Chinese government intensively studied their own large SOE companies, Huawei, and successful multinational companies, such as GE and IBM. They realized glaring differences in the incentives of the employees and thus the global competitiveness of these companies. Currently, the management of SOE companies does not own shares or stock option plans, but are rather paid a 2 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 relatively low salary, prompting some to figure out ways to profit from the company, such as what we have seen in the investigation of some former managers of PetroChina. The government has realized that by paying competitive wages to top managers, along with the granting of stock options, these managers can then work to drive shareholder value instead of acting with little or no corporate governance. SOEs and private companies will also be able to compete with each other more directly in the marketplace, as more areas will be unburdened by reduced red tape. This competition should be beneficial, as SOEs will have to innovate and reinvent themselves to stay competitive, while private companies will have more opportunity than in the past. 3) Rural Land Reforms Hukou household registration system to modernize. The current hukou system, which divides people between urban and rural residents, was designed to limit the number of inhabitants in cities. When China opened up three decades ago and people migrated from rural to urban areas, it was of great economic benefit to them and to China, but this migration has run its course and has reached a critical bottleneck – namely the existence of the hukou system, which limits the ability of a migrant worker to buy an apartment and receive urban benefits such as healthcare and schooling. Furthermore, the rural farmer is unable to monetize his land, as it is technically a collective that can only be bought by the government. With this new reform, China looks to enable that farmer to sell or lease his/her land to others to capture the economic value. The entire hukou system looks like it will be reformed over time, starting with some pilot projects in a few cities. The goal of a freer flow of capital and labor is clear and this is a big step in the right direction. The positives of rural land reform are obvious: increased mobility of labor, a wealthier former farmer who is able to spend more and larger plots of agricultural land that can benefit from more mechanized, large scale farming techniques. On the other hand, this reform will limit the local governments’ profits and further pressure them, leaving them to fill the gap with other reforms, such as local government bond issuance, property tax collections, and a fairer balance of tax revenue to the central and local governments. 4) Financial Reforms The renminbi aims to eventually become a world reserve currency. Regarding liberalizing the capital account, we expect a further relaxation of the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor and Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QDII and QFII, respectively) quota systems. In addition, individuals and companies will be able to more freely convert currencies within higher annual limits; in 3 to 5 years, basic RMB convertibility should then be achieved. To facilitate this process, the new Shanghai Free Trade Zone and the Shenzhen Qianhai Zone will serve as pilot areas for these initiatives. The longer term aim of the government is for the RMB to be considered eligible as a reserve currency, alongside the greenback and pound sterling. We believe that this will take at least a decade, as even the Yen accounts for less than 5% of the global FX reserves. We believe that the government’s objective for the RMB to become a global reserve currency pushes the government in the right direction of capital account and currency reforms. We believe that the reform process will present many investment opportunities in the areas of financial services, environmental protection, SOEs that are willing to work harder for minority shareholders, private companies suffering from a high cost of capital, and the consumer sector. These reforms should unlock productivity and serve to begin rebalancing the economy away from investment-led growth towards a consumption economy. As President Xi has consolidated his power and is increasingly gaining support among government officials as well as the public, we believe that China should be headed in the right direction over the next decade and present us with many exciting investment opportunities. 3 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 India & Indonesia: On the ground during tougher, yet hopeful times We visited both India & Indonesia in recent months, and found that the mood was somber. The reality that officials cannot take for granted the high GDP growth rates of the last decade is starting to set in. Policymakers have now largely accepted that consumption-led growth fuelled by imports and financed by capital flows was an unsustainable model. For the longer term good, the building blocks of domestic infrastructure and manufacturing competitiveness are imperative. India In the near term, the stability of the currency is a priority with the RBI (Reserve Bank of India) raising dollar deposits, hiking interest rates to slow the domestic economy, and encouraging growth of exports through 10-15% currency depreciation. The trade deficit, which was at USD 15-17 billion per month earlier this year has come down to USD 8-10 billion per month in recent months—a gap which is easily financed by software exports and remittances from non-resident Indians. Our interactions with companies Mixed business and social class sentiment across sectors indicated that though The business mood has somewhat improved from extreme pessimism in July, as strong they are dismayed by state of the export orders feed through the economy. The urban middle class still remains pressured by country, they were focused on high inflation and low salary growth. However, the rural population, which makes up nearly improving their product portfolios, 60% of the total population, remains resilient on the back of good monsoons, improved road implementing cost control, expanding connectivity, and high value agriculture outputs. distribution reach and optimizing In the run up to the general elections in April 2014, the whole nation is focused on the key inventory management. opposition contender, Mr. Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of Gujarat, one of the fastest growing and most business friendly states in the country, as a beacon of hope for getting the “Growth Mojo” back into the economy. The restless Indian youth, numbering 150 million new voters (aged 18 or above) in 2014, are further driving the need for a government which goes beyond subsidies and handouts to sustainable development and good governance. Corporate focus on efficiencies Our interactions with companies across sectors indicated that though they are dismayed by state of the country, they were focused on improving their product portfolios, implementing cost control, expanding distribution reach and optimizing inventory management. Our travel to cities of Delhi, Mumbai, and Bangalore highlighted the different moods. In Delhi, auto companies like Maruti Suzuki and Hero Motor Corp shared a common theme of strong rural demand making up for weak urban consumer, while both continued to cut costs through vendor efficiencies and increasing the proportion of components produced locally. Mumbai, the financial capital, reflected the downbeat mood of the banks in light of currency 4 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 depreciation and the policy bottlenecks for infrastructure projects. Finally, Bangalore, India’s IT export hub is shining with new real estate project launches and jewelry showrooms budding up all over the city. With US outsourcing demand improving, the outlook from technology companies in Bangalore was positive. Our most interesting meeting was with Mr. Narayan Murthy, Founder & Chairman of Infosys. This was one of his first interactions with investors since his return to the company. He presented us with an honest admission of what went wrong over the last two years as Infosys—the industry bellwether—lagged peers in growth and profitability. The meeting provided a useful insight into how good companies sometimes lose their way, but an inner strength remains in their ability to quickly rectifying the shortcomings. In their case, the detour was simply letting go of large outsourcing deals during 2010-12 and to improvise project delivery tools to execute them profitably. Short-term pain for long-term gain On the macro policy front, a pragmatic approach by the new RBI Governor, Mr. Raghuram Rajan, to focus on inflation control while sacrificing near term growth should provide a much needed stabilization window for the economy to regain its competitiveness. Since 2011, India has also witnessed a policy paralysis due to the Supreme Court, apex judicial body, continuously revisiting the Executive branch’s legacy policy decisions, as well as media and environmental activism challenging business, creating a stalemate instead of mutually agreeable solutions. We believe that new leadership in India in 2014 would bring a practical insight into these critical issues of balancing growth with the social good, a challenge faced by all emerging markets. Evolving local tastes Meanwhile, the Indian consumers’ tastes and preferences are catching up fast with global peers, as shown in our pictures of Orion Choco Pies in a Mumbai hypermarket and Hamleys’s store in a suburban Mumbai mall. Reliance Hypermarket, in the suburbs of Mumbai Hamleys, Phoenix Mall, Kurla, Mumbai 5 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 Indonesia The India trip was followed by a visit to Jakarta, providing an opportunity to meet with key policymakers, management of companies, and to observe consumer behavior. The trip got off to a positive start, with the policymakers going beyond the usual pitch of “the long term demographic opportunity in Indonesia” to being more mindful of the near term challenges. A number of these challenges emerged because policymakers basked in the glory of high growth rates of 2010-12 without enhancing the overall competitiveness of the economy. What is needed, and what is starting to happen, is a two-pronged approach where the government focuses on boosting non-resource exports, provides better training for the workforce, and encourages foreign direct investment in the medium term, while the Central Bank raises interest rates to slow domestic demand and allow for a market-determined level for the currency. The India trip was followed by a visit Demographics and consumption remain favorable to Jakarta, providing an opportunity Market research agency Nielsen highlighted that longer term consumption trends are fairly to meet with key policymakers, positive with the Indonesian middle class likely to triple to 200 million people by 2020. The management of companies, and to Indonesian consumer, along with their Indian and Filipino peers, ranked amongst the world’s observe consumer behavior. most confident consumers with holiday, entertainment, smartphone, and tablet purchases as significant categories of expenditure. There was a distinctly more somber tone in the corporate outlook with banks like Mandiri and Rakyat talking of 15-17% credit growth instead of the 20-23% growth they have seen in recent years. Semen Gresik alluded to a more moderate level of cement industry growth at about 6% and Bumi Sepong, a developer, guiding towards slower demand with a skew towards smaller ticket size apartments. We traveled around Jakarta visiting Matahari, Uniqlo, H&M, and 7-11 outlets. Matahari’s outlet in the upscale South Jakarta neighborhood of Clandik Town square was impacted in recent year because of new mall openings in the vicinity. Same store sales growth at the store this year was only 4%, with shoes and apparel growing in excess of 10% while home, cosmetics, and intimate wear lagged. A notable highlight in the outlet was the high proportion of private label brands like Nevada, Connexions, and Fladeo represented 35% of merchandise across key categories of footwear and apparel. The quality in the high margin private label portfolio was good and priced reasonably, at about US $20 for pair of ladies shoes. The store manager was fairly knowledgeable and highlighted the store’s quick response by discounting slow moving merchandise, and replacing the consignee if there is no improvement. 6 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 Matahari store in South Jakarta highlighting some of their private label brands Our interaction with Ace Hardware gave us a useful insight into how during the boom times of 2010-2012, companies overextended themselves by opening stores too quickly, thereby cannibalizing existing sales. Ace Hardware guided to a subdued trend in same stores sales growth while reducing their new store openings from 15 to 10 with only 1 new store in Jakarta. The company highlighted the negative impact of the nearly 30% wage increase resulting in a 2 percentage point margin hit, while higher incomes seem to be taking some time to translate into greater spending by consumers. It is widely believed that the verdict Jokowi’s Hope Factor of the Presidential Elections in 2014 On the political front, considerable hope surrounds Mr. Joko Widodo (popularly called will determine whether Indonesia “Jokowi”), Jakarta‘s Governor, becoming the next President of Indonesia in 2014. Similar to maintains the growth momentum of the sentiment in India for Mr. Narendra Modi of India, Jokowi embodies “the Hope Factor the last decade or falls off the radar. for getting things done,” such as building infrastructure, and running a cleaner, efficient We do agree—as in India, 2014 is the government with charisma. With 67 million new voters in Indonesia, there has been a fair year to start changing the course of bit of discontentmernt with the slow decision-making in the second term of the current the country. SB Yodhoyuno Government. In just under two years as Governor of Jakarta, Jokowi has emerged as a tough taskmaster who has fast-tracked construction of the Jakarta metro, while putting a check on unabated growth of malls and cars in Jakarta City, which lacks the infrastructure to cope with such influxes. With a sound land acquisition policy yet to be implemented after years of debate, patience is wearing thin among the masses, who suffer through endless traffic jams and frequent flooding in the Greater Jakarta region, which is home to 24 million people. It is widely believed that the verdict of the Presidential Elections in 2014 will determine whether Indonesia maintains the growth momentum of the last decade or falls off the radar. We do agree—as in India, 2014 is the year to start changing the course of the country. 7 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 China divesting from coal, but not all gas is equal In the past decade the Chinese economy has experienced extraordinary growth. However, this has come at a price as air pollution has also been growing at a fast pace and has reached unacceptable levels in Beijing. [left] Air Quality Index map on December 8, 2013. Courtesy of China Air Quality Index (http://fresh-ideas.cc) [right] Shanghai in bad pollution days As the government shifts its focus to a more sustainable growth path, air pollution needs to be tackled and emissions have to be reduced. The best way to achieve this target is by decreasing the reliance on coal and increasing the share of gas and renewables out of the primary energy mix. Currently, coal represents around 70% of China’s primary energy mix, while natural gas’ share is just around 5%, compared to a global average of 24%. Renewables 1.2% Nuclear 4.5% Renewables 1.9% Oil 33.1% Hydro, 7.0% Hydro 6.7% Oil 33.1% Nuclear, 0.8% Natural Gas, 4.8% China 2012 World 2012 Coal 29.9% Natural Gas 23.9% Coal, 68.1% Source: BP statistical review of world energy 2013, measured in million tonnes of oil equivalent, China includes Hong Kong. 8 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 Diesel and gasoline are also another relevant source of air pollution. According to an NDRC research institute analyst, automotive fuels are responsible for around 25% of the air pollution in the Beijing urban area. One of China’s most important initiatives to increase gas penetration is to replace gasoline and diesel with compressed natural gas (CNG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG), which generate about 11% 1 fewer emissions. The appeal of CNG CNG is mostly used in city transportation—by cars and taxis, while LNG is used by buses and long distance heavy transportation trucks. In our most recent trip to China, we met with several industry specialists and companies engaged in both the CNG and LNG transportation supply chain. For CNG, we concluded that the adoption makes sense for city vehicles and taxis. Based on data we gathered on the ground, the payback period for the conversion of a gasoline engine to a CNG engine ranges from five to 11 months, assuming a conversion cost of roughly RMB 7,500 and the vehicle logging 50,000 km per year. We believe that the large players, From the CNG refilling station perspective, the return on investment is also very attractive and such as PetroChina and other gas in some cases, IRRs may exceed 20%. We were told by some industry players that the cost distribution companies, are again in a of building a CNG station is relatively low, and depending on the location, the cost may range better position as they command more between RMB 7mn to 10mn, including land. Based on what PetroChina has disclosed as its flexibility in how to allocate their gas. average selling price and the retail prices we saw at the various pumps, the gas is sold to the end customer at almost twice the price of purchase, so the economics are clearly attractive. In our view, the main challenges for the construction and operation of CNG stations are getting the licenses and finding stable gas suppliers. Therefore, the companies with a natural advantage are the city gas operators, such as ENN and China Resources Gas, and companies which already engage in the fuel marketing business such as Sinopec, PetroChina and Kunlun Energy, a listed subsidiary of PetroChina. Another additional challenge is that the Chinese government prioritizes the supply of natural gas to domestic users for heating and cooking, then to industrial users, and lastly to CNG refilling stations. Hence, we believe that the large players, such as PetroChina and other gas distribution companies, are again in a better position as they command more flexibility in how to allocate their gas. We also believe that new players will find it difficult to build CNG stations since CNG is a high yielding business, and existing players will not be so kind as to allow them to have a consistent supply. 1 US Department of energy http://www.afdc.energy.gov/vehicles/natural_gas_emissions.html, 9 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 LNG’s difficult road For the LNG liquefaction facilities, we found a different reality on the ground from what we saw of the CNG supply chain, as the LNG value chain is more complex. Natural gas needs to be liquefied first and then shipped to the LNG refilling stations, where it is then sold as a fuel for LNG trucks and buses. Through our channel checks, we found out that most of the liquefying facilities, located in Inner Mongolia, are currently being underutilized, with utilization for some players reaching levels as low as 20%, given low demand from the still nascent LNG industry. The exception is Kunlun Energy, which has been able to achieve an average utilization rate of 70%, thanks to its integrated business model, which allows them to manage the expansion of liquefaction and LNG retail stations at the same pace. Kunlun Energy also counts on more stable supply of gas from its parent PetroChina, which controls most of the gas supply in China. An additional barrier is that capital requirements to build these facilities are high, at around RMB 1 bn for 1 million m3/day of capacity. Based on the data we collected on the ground and on our assumptions, we believe these liquefying facilities’ IRR will remain at mid-single digit, ranging between 4% and 7%. This is due to the relatively larger capex investment as well as the narrower spread between the selling price to the LNG station and the cost of gas acquisition from PetroChina compared to the spread between the CNG retail price and the gas acquisition cost from PetroChina. For the LNG refilling stations, returns are higher than liquefaction facilities. Based on the data we gathered from a Guangdong LNG refilling station manager and on our assumptions, we believe the project payback period can be less than three years, as there is still a significant spread between the cost of LNG and the retail price of LNG and the capex requirement is only just slightly higher than a CNG station. An LNG station also has the flexibility to change the source of its gas depending on the price. If LNG prices in the coast are lower than Inner Mongolia price plus transportation, the station buys it in the coastal area; otherwise it sources from Inner Mongolia. Due to major price differences of LNG around China, the payback period is only short enough to justify LNG conversion in the central part of the country—not along the coasts. This is because along the coasts, there is a much higher transportation cost to get piped gas or to use LNG imports. The difference is quite meaningful, as the payback period of LNG conversion for trucks based in Inner Mongolia is around 18 months, but in Guangdong, it is about 33 months. Lastly, we heard from LNG equipment makers that LNG engines still need some technical improvements in order to reach optimal utilization, as LNG engines are less efficient (less output per unit of fuel input) and they must be in constant use to minimize the vaporization loss of the fuel. If left idle for one week, an LNG truck loses all the fuel in its tank through vaporization. 10 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 CNG is viable now, LNG has potential later We do not believe the LNG story in China is over, but the government will have to put some more incentives in place in order to see a faster adoption of LNG as a fuel for vehicles. CNG as vehicle fuel source, on the other hand, has favorable economic incentives that will drive adoption and government just needs to make sure that supply growth is stable and reliable. Hence we believe that the city gas distribution companies with CNG optionality, such as ENN and China Resources Gas are better positioned to tap the gas for the vehicle market, whereas Kunlun Energy’s LNG business, despite being one of the better LNG businesses, may still suffer for a while before it finally takes off. CNOOC (parent company) LNG refilling station in Shenzhen PetroChina/Kunlun LNG refilling station (2) http://www.kunlun.com.hk/userfiles/image/1.png 11 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 Investment principles We identify the sustainable competitiveness of companies We invest with a long term perspective What does it mean to us? Many of our investors are investing with us for their retirement, or We believe companies that have strong moats will have stable even for their children. Long-term does not mean only three to earnings growth and cash flow, and share prices will rise as five years for us. Our goal is to find companies that can last and these companies add considerable value each year. This tenet prosper in the next several decades and invest in them – these drives our investment ideas, not short-term trading profits. are companies with high terminal values. How do we apply it? How do we apply it? Sustainable competitiveness scorecards: We thoroughly analyze 30 Analysts and portfolio managers are evaluated by their long- factors for each company to identify the competitiveness of the company term performance. To add a new position into a fund, we spend for the long term. This scorecard includes six main categories, considerable time researching and evaluating it. We’re not looking which are: Barriers to Entry, Competitive Dynamics, Sustainability of to rush in based on a news headline, we are more concerned with Returns, Management Track Record, Reliance on Outside Support, generating solid, long-term, well researched ideas. What does it mean to us? and Ownership of Distribution/Production Supply Chain. Extensive company meetings and research trips: Third party research is useful for us to know the consensus, but it cannot be the sole input when making investment decisions. We have investment professionals around the globe; we frequently hold meetings in our offices and conduct numerous on-site visits and meetings. We assess investment risks with expected return We value a team based approach in decision making What does it mean to us? We constantly monitor the changes in regulation, competitive What does it mean to us? environments, and managements strategies. We do not fall in love We do not rely on any single star portfolio manager or star analyst. with our holdings, and will exit a position when the investment We believe in sharing information and analysis among ourselves. thesis is no longer valid. The potential upside and downside and We rely on our collective knowledge and invest in long-term ideas. our conviction drives the sizing of our positions. How do we apply it? How do we apply it? We openly discuss and examine key ideas in Investment Committee In addition to risk analysis done by research team, where we quantify meetings where investment professionals participate. the upside and downside to earnings and valuation, our risk team We share our research notes globally on MARS (Mirae Asset monitors various parameters including sector volatility and liquidity, Research System) online, over email and we have regular video and gives active feedback to the research team. Our risk team is conference calls with other overseas offices. aided with a range of third-party risk management systems such as Factset, Axioma, Thomson Reuters, and Bloomberg POMS/AIM. 12 MIRAE ASSET LENS Q1 2014 Global Offices Disclaimer Mirae Asset Global Investments This document has been prepared for presentation, illustration and discussion purpose East Tower 26F, Mirae Asset CENTER1 Bldg, only and is not legally binding. 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