mEDIa21 - On Assignment
Transcrição
mEDIa21 - On Assignment
Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks CLIMATE CHANGE IV ANTICIPATING CLIMATE RISKS With the collaboration of the World Meteorological Organization, rd 3 World Meteorological Conference Aug 31-Sept 4, Trip to Mali: Sept 5-10, 2009 PARTICIPANTS: ADDIS Eyader, Ethiopia, Africa News ADEODATO Sergio, Brazil, Horizonte Geografico Magazine AKAKPO-AHIANYO Etonam, Togo, Afrique Agriculture, Le Marché BOTNARU Petru, Moldova, Adevarul, Terra-1530 DECLOITRE Shobhna, Fiji, UNDP DE ROULET Pablo, Switzerland, Le Courrier DIARRA Soumaila, Mali, L'Aube DOWELL Bill, U.S.A, The Global Post EMTAIRAH Ola, Dubai - UAE, Al-Arabiya, MBC Group FALCO Aline, Brazil, Mudanças Climàticas FOKUDA Hiroyuki, Japan, NHK GERDES Justin, Denmark, CCC, Mandag Morgen HACK Tobin, U.S.A., Sierra Magazine, MNN LEAHY Stephen, Canada, Inter Press Service LIVEN Ido, Israel, Ynet LESPINASSE Colette, Haiti, Radio Kiskeka NANDI Jayashree, India, The Times of India NDIAYE Papa Noumou, Senegal / Switzerland, Bluewin.ch, Mediasen.org NJIRU John Muchangi, Kenya, Nairobi star PICKERING Sarah, Denmark, CCC, Mandag Morgen RANGATIA Yoga, India/Switzerland, Indian press SAMULAT Gerhard, Germany, GEO, Spektrumdirekt SCHACHT Rüdiger, Germany, Die Welt VIVAR Mariona, France , Alternative Channel, Paris/Montreal YOHANNES Solomon, Ethiopia, NMA ZYNCENKO Nadia, Argentina, NMA MEDIA21 JOURNALISTS/EDITORIAL BOARD Isolda AGAZZI, Fabrice BOULÉ, Edward GIRARDET, Daniel WERMUS. COORDINATION: Flavio LUCCHESI ADMINISTRATION: Hervé GUYOMAR MALI ADVISOR: Ramata TRAORE INTERN: Clément GIRARDOT, Institut d‘études politiques, Grenoble PUBLISHER: Media21 in editorial partnership with Crosslines Essential Media Ltd www.media21geneva.org www.essentialgeneva.com 2 Table of content Introduction ........................................................................ 3 Financial supporters ............................................................. 3 Domestiquer les éléments ..................................................... 4 Every time it rains in Tokyo, the whole world will know ........... 5 Den Wandel hautnah erleben ................................................ 5 Mali's new eco-training camp ................................................ 7 Swiss Minergie house ........................................................... 7 L‘ adaptation du Mali aux défis climatiques ............................. 8 Météo: quand la censure frappe ............................................ 9 Les enjeux de Copenhague ................................................... 9 Bamako entre modernité et inégalités .................................. 10 Les journalistes en reportage en Haute-Savoie ..................... 10 Wir müssen dagegenhalten ................................................. 11 Mali: la météo, alliée des paysans ....................................... 13 Cidadão pode pagar para conter o aqueciento global ............ 14 Growing focus on gender and climatechange as COP15 approaches .... 15 Mali‘s unknown global warming (Os limites da pobreza) ........ 16 Frequent droughts will impact food production say experts .... 20 Climate change impact leaves Mali villagers high and dry ...... 21 Quand le Mali bombarde le ciel ........................................... 21 Tamala: un village à l‘écoute de la météo ............................ 22 Energy: to fly around the world - without fuel ...................... 23 Mali: technology transfer so slow "we‘ll have to copy like China" ..... 24 Climate change: survival means anticipating and adapting..... 26 Global grid enables nations adapt to climate change ............. 27 Taking action on climate change ......................................... 27 We used to have four seasons, but the autumn disappeared.......... 28 Climate change: earth's fridge defrosting, with dire results .... 28 Climate change: early warning systems for the coming storm......... 30 Execs say only green businesses will thrive post-COP15, challenges remain .............................................................. 30 Partners ............................................................................ 32 Links to all articles on Media21 website mEDIa21 On Assignment #10, September 2009 Introduction This workshop was the 20th of Media21‘s ongoing series on global themes, and the 4th dedicated to climate change, was organized during the 3rd World Climate Conference (WWC3), where 1000 high level decision makers and providers of climate services were expected. Prior to the Copenhagen meeting, it was focused on the adaptation and solutions – or more precisely the integration of climate predictions in the policy-making of all sectors: energy, agriculture, urban planning, transports, construction, health, economy, etc. Apart from attending some of the WCC3 sessions, journalists took part in speciallytailored panels and were able to meet with high level international players from UN agencies, humanitarian organizations, private sector, academia, governments, and media. Financial supporters able energy that were visited by the journalists. The field visits around Geneva proved a very positive complement to the more theoretical knowledge offered in the conference rooms. The following week, a field trip to Mali, attended by half of the group, offered a human side of the story in Mali, a country facing concrete impacts of the problem and trying to find innovative solutions. WMO The workshop was also able to attract prominent figures who gave exclusive presentations for Media21, such as Michel Jarraud, secretary general of WMO, Achim Steiner, executive director of UNEP and Shere Abbott, top adviser to President Obama on climate change. Furthermore an attempt was made to include weather presenters in the group of journalists, and also to have a joint session on the link between forecasts and climate change issues. Finally, as suggested by Media21 to WMO, a roundtable discussion on ―Communicating climate information‖ was held as part of WCC3 programme, with panellists from meteorology, civil society, and media – among which Daniel Wermus from Media21, discussing strengths and limits of the media in raising public awareness. UNFPA Federal Office for the Environment Bread for All mEDIa21 Individual rainfalls measurement in Mali in Ouelessebougou. How can a poor country adapt its agriculture to climate change? The Media21 sessions provided a good balance of panellists from all sectors, including the private sector who were quite well represented this time: Cadbury, Veolia, Hewlett Packard, Monsanto, plus several local Swiss and French enterprises specialized in renew Presence Switzerland Région Rhône-Alpes Formation Continue des Journalistes Centre Romand de Formation des Journalistes 3 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks Domestiquer les éléments By Isolda AGAZZI, 1 November 2009, Afrique-Asie Mali: inondations désastreuses, sécheresse galopante... Une alternance de phénomènes extrêmes provoqués par le changement climatique, mais aussi par les comportements humains. Des solutions existent pour lutter contre cette situation. Reportage. « La terre était déjà gorgée d‘eau, alors cette pluie supplémentaire ne peut que faire des dégâts! » s‘exclame Ramata Diaouré, membre du Réseau des journalistes africains de l‘environnement, pataugeant dans la boue provoquée par les trombes d‘eau qui s‘abattent sur Bamako en cette fin d‘après-midi. Fortes pluies à Bamako en septembre 2009. Comment les agriculteurs peuvent-ils en profiter au mieux ? Les voitures et les mobylettes s‘enfoncent dans des flaques de trente centimètres, provoquées par les canalisations à ciel ouvert qui débordent de toute part. Les fruits et légumes tombés des étalages se mêlent à la savate égarée que la passante essaie de récupérer. La circulation est encore plus chaotique que d‘habitude, même si la pluie semble avoir lavé le ciel et l‘air paraît moins pollué et, pour une fois, presque respirable. En une seule journée, il est tombé 250 mm de pluie – la quantité de 45 jours. La saison des pluies va habituellement de mai à juillet, mais cette année les précipitations se sont fait attendre jusqu‘en septembre. Une conséquence directe du changement climatique, qui provoque des phénomènes extrêmes dans toute la sous région. 4 Fin septembre, l‘ONU annonçait que les inondations qui frappent l‘Afrique de l‘Ouest depuis juin avaient déjà provoqué au moins 187 morts et affecté 635.273 personnes. Un bilan qui risque de s‘alourdir, car une deuxième vague d‘inondations s‘abat sur la sous-région depuis quelques semaines, notamment au Sénégal, au Burkina Faso, au Niger, en Guinée, en Mauritanie et au Tchad. preuves aussi au Burkina Faso et au Sénégal. « Depuis 1970, la pluviométrie a diminué de 20% au Mali, nous explique Sidi Konaté, membre du Secrétariat technique permanent (STP) du Ministère de l‘Environnement, lors d‘une conférence organisée par le réseau Média 21 à Bamako. La sécheresse augmente, la nappe phréatique diminue et le débit des grands fleuves connaît une baisse de 50%. De nouveaux végétaux flottants apparaissent, qui entravent la pêche et la navigation et provoquent le paludisme et de nouvelles maladies.» Mali Méto propose d‘ailleurs deux bulletins différents: l‘un pour la pluie naturelle et l‘autre pour la pluie provoquée. Elle a aussi développé un programme d‘agro-météo assistance pour aider les paysans, désorientés par le changement de saisons, à établir un calendrier des semences. Le démarrage et la fin de la saison humide sont devenus imprévisibles et les paysans ne savent plus quand semer. La migration augmente. L‘écosystème se modifie, les pâturages diminuent et les conflits entre éleveurs, pêcheurs et agriculteurs deviennent toujours plus fréquents. Le delta intérieur du Niger connaît une perte annuelle d‘eau de 30'000 milliards de m3. L‘ensablement et la désertification affectent les habitations, les terres agricoles et les voies de communication. « Ensemencer » les nuages pour provoquer la pluie Alors, les Maliens ont décidé d‘aider un peu le ciel. « Nous ensemençons les nuages pour qu‘ils donnent plus de pluie, nous explique Daouda Zan Diarra, ingénieur à Mali Météo. On regarde ceux qui ont le plus de potentiel et on envoie un avion injecter du sel pour favoriser la condensation. Une demi-heure après il pleut, là où nous voulons.» Ce programme, qui a permis d‘augmenter la pluviométrie de 15% et la production de mil, riz, sorgho, arachide et coton de moitié, a fait ses « Nous travaillons avec la Weather Modification Corporation, une compagnie américaine qui nous a vendu les avions et les radars. Mais le Mali a payé entièrement de sa poche les six milliards de francs CFA destinés à financer les opérations», assure l‘ingénieur. Mais doper les nuages ne suffit pas. Aujourd‘hui le Mali a besoin de technologies vertes - énergie solaire, éolienne et nouvelles méthodes d‘irrigation. «Pourtant, nous n‘avons rien reçu! S‘emporte Sidi Konaté, du STP. La technologie ne se transfère pas, les droits de propriété intellectuelle la rendent beaucoup trop chère. Il faut la copier, comme les Chinois. La Convention sur le changement climatique n‘a pas trouvé de mécanisme adéquat et la conférence de Copenhague ne va pas le trouver non plus.» La tradition en question Le pays va d‘inondations en sécheresses comme de Charybde en Scylla. Le sud du Mali est étonnamment vert et fertile. Les manguiers et les arbres à karité tancent les nuages bas, gorgés de pluie, baignés par une lumière changeante et cristalline. La nuit, la lune est tellement proche qu‘on pourrait la cueillir comme un fruit mûr. « Mais cette verdure ne dure que le temps de la saison des pluies, et au nord de Mopti et de Gao la sécheresse reprend le dessus» avertissent les paysans. Nous sommes à Ségou, l‘ancienne capitale du royaume bambara - aujourd‘hui une grosse bourgade endormie au bord du Niger. Michel Cadalen y dirige la coopération luxembourgeoise (LuxDev), l‘une des plus actives du pays. Et pour lui, le changement climatique n‘explique pas tout. mEDIa21 On Assignment #10, September 2009 « En 1973, la plaine de San, à deux heures de route d‘ici, était irriguée par le fleuve Banni, raconte-t-il. Depuis, il a fortement diminué à cause d‘éléments climatiques, certes, mais aussi de facteurs humains. Le problème, c‘est moins la disponibilité de l‘eau que sa distribution. Beaucoup de régions du Mali reçoivent plus de pluie que la Hollande! » pour atteindre 16‘000 tonnes cette année, la plaine exporte du riz dans tout le Mali et jusqu‘au Burkina Faso. Le développement économique a permis de diversifier les activités productrices audelà de l‘agriculture et d‘assurer les besoins en santé et en éducation. » Augmenter la productivité pour assurer la sécurité alimentaire Dans la plaine de San, LuxDev a réussi à sortir la gestion foncière du système juridique traditionnel, tout en respectant les sensibilités locales. Les paysans ont créé l‘ARPASO, une association qui regroupe 4590 exploitants sur une surface de 1200 hectares. Peu avant le coucher du soleil, une foule bigarrée d‘hommes, femmes et enfants rentre des champs sur des charrettes tirées par les ânes. La route coupe la plaine en deux: à gauche la partie aménagée, où les rizières bien ordonnées s‘étendent à perte de vue. A droite la partie en friche, où broutent quelques rares vaches égarées. « Grâce à une nouvelle gestion des terres, au reboisement et à l‘amélioration des méthodes culturales, nous avons multiplié la productivité par quatre, souligne Michel Cadalen. Le but initial était la sécurité alimentaire. Mais comme la production dépasse les besoins locaux - estimés à 4'000 tonnes - ORIGINAL ARTICLE in Hebrew http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L3775445,00.html Den Wandel hautnah erleben A l‘entendre, le changement climatique existe depuis toujours et la pression démographique, la mauvaise gestion des ressources naturelles et le système traditionnel d‘attribution des terres sont tout aussi responsables de la sécheresse. En cause, notamment, la superposition de plusieurs systèmes juridiques: aujourd‘hui encore, le peuple considère que les chefs de village et les chefs de terre priment sur le droit officiel hérité de la colonisation. «Au Mali, on peut couper les branches, mais on n‘a pas le droit de planter un arbre, car c‘est considéré comme un défi au chef, qui distribue les terres selon son bon vouloir» analyse-t-il. mation all the time, but it wasn't integrated in the decision making process. By Rüdiger SCHACHT De nouvelles solutions à trouver pour nourrir les générations à venir. La preuve que la sécheresse et le changement climatique ne sont pas une fatalité. «Aujourd‘hui, les jeunes restent au village, même pendant la saison sèche, se réjouit un membre de l‘ARPASO. Alors qu‘avant ils périssaient en mer en essayant de gagner l‘Italie.» Every time it rains in Tokyo, the whole world will know By Ido LIVEN, 19 October 2009, ynet.co.il online Abstract At the World Climate Conference, which took place in Geneva about a month ago, a new mechanism has been established for improving the coordination between meteorologists. The aim: to allow the international community identify trends and prepare in advance to and prepare in advance to climate change. Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization: We had the infor- Westafrika ist eine der vom Klimawandel am stärksten betroffenen Regionen der Erde. Immer unregelmässigere Regenfälle und die zunehmende Ausbreitung der Sahara verderben die Ernten und vertreiben die Landbevölkerung. Die Republik Mali sucht nach Wegen, um sich den Folgen des Klimawandels anzupassen „Probleme in Afrika?― lacht unser einheimischer Führer Barry Amadou und zeigt sein breitetestes Grinsen, „Nein, hier in Afrika gibt es nur Lösungen!― Der 42 jährige wurde in der Hauptstadt Malis, Bamako, geboren und arbeitet seit rund fünf Jahren für die französische Immigrationsbehörde in Paris. Die meiste Zeit des Jahres und lebt er in der französischen Hauptstadt und betreut afrikanische Einwanderer bei der Erledigung der Einwanderungsformalitäten. Während der übrigen Zeit führt er Reisegruppen – wie die unsere, von der UN organisierte – in seinem Heimatland. Mali, ein Land mit langer, stolzer Geschichte, dessen ehemaliges Zentrum Timbuktu im Mittelalter berühmt für seinen sagenhaften Reichtum war, versinkt zusehens im Sand und Staub der Sahara. Anstelle des ehemaligen Gold und Elfenbein-Reichtums der Region treten heute die Wüstenbildung, Überflutungen sowie die Absenkung des Grundwasserund Nigerwasserspiegels. Auf den ehemals fruchtbaren Böden am Nigerufer verdorren die, immer noch von Hand einzeln gesetzten, Pflanzen auf den Feldern. Rund zweieinhalb mal grösser als Spanien, zwischen Algerien, Guinea, Burkina Faso und der Elfenbeinküste gelegen, hat das Land einen bedeutenden Anteil an der Sahara, der Sahelzone und dem Sudan. Seine Klimazonen reichen vom tropisch-feuchten Sudan-Klima des Südens bis zum Wüstenklima der Saha- 5 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks ra. Zwei Drittel seiner Landesfläche sind Wüste, deren Fläche - einhergehend mit zunehmender Verarmrung der Landbevölkerung - täglich zunimmt. fruchtbaren Ackerlandes und saftiger Weiden treten jetzt Strauch- und Trockensavannen, die weder Mensch noch Tier ernähren können―, so Gakou. „Sand und Staub―, sagt der Chef des Ministeriums für Verwüstung, Entwaldung und Bodenerosion Malis, Mamadou Gakou „sind zwei der grössten Probleme hier in Mali.― Vom Wind aus der Sahara herangetragen, verteilt er sich überall im Land – verstopft die Filter von Motoren und Kühlaggregaten und bindet die ohnehin schon rückläufigen Wassermassen des Nigers. Wie ein feines Tuch legt er sich über das Land und verwandelt die wenigen Oberflächengewässer in dickflüssige Schlammbrühen. Mit dem Staub wurden bisher für Mali unbekannte Pflanzensamen in das Land geweht, die in den Schlamm hervorragend gedeihen und lange, seetangartige Pflanzen ausbilden. „Als biologische Barrieren, machen sie den Flussschiffern und Fischern das Leben schwer und verstopfen die Zuflüsse der Turbinen unser Wasserkraftwerke―, so Gakou. Zum Ausbleiben der Niederschläge gesellt sich seit einigen Jahren ein Problem, dass auf den ersten Blick so gar nicht zur Trockenheit passen zu scheint: Überflutungen. Seit einigen Jahren gehen die wenigen Niederschläge immer häufiger als sintflutartige Starkregen nieder, die die wenigen Abflüsse komplett überfordern und – wie Ende August bei den östlichen Nachbarn Malis grossflächig geschehen – ganze Regionen überfluten. „Das uralte Gleichgewicht zwischen Trocken- und Regenzeit ist komplett aus den Fugen geraten―, sagt die Bäuerin Sali Samake aus dem Dorf Tamala mit einem sorgenvollen Blick auf ihren Maisacker. „Die Regenzeit setzt von Jahr ein zu Jahr später ein und macht den gewohnten Pflanz- und Ernterhythmus fast unmöglich. Hinzu kommt noch, das die Regenfluten uns jetzt auch noch die fruchtbare Ackerkrume wegspülen.― Seit Beginn der 70er Jahre nehmen in Westafrika die Niederschlagsmengen dramatisch ab. Der Regen wird immer unregelmässiger und bleibt häufig jahrelang völlig aus. Die 1200 MillimeterNiederschlagsisobare (Isohyete), die der Behörde als Mass für eine ausreichende Bewässerung der Äcker dient, wandert immer weiter nach Süden und mit ihr tausende von Bauern und Farmern aus dem ehemals fruchtbaren Bereich am Niger. „Menschen, die in ihrem Stammland alles verloren haben und jetzt auf der Flucht sind vor einem unbekannten und übermächtigen Feind: dem Klimawandel―, führt der studierte Geograph aus. Neben den ethnischen Problemen, die mit der Verdrängung ganzer Volksgruppen aus ihrer Heimat einhergehen, bringt die Flucht vor der Trockenheit dem Land auch erhebliche Ackerlandund Nahrungsmitteleinbussen. War Mali einst bedeutender Reislieferant an seine Nachbarn, so zwingen die ausbleibenden Ernteerträge Mali heute schon rund zwanzig Prozent seines Reisbedarfs zu importieren. „An die Stelle ehemals 6 Doch Malis Menschen geben nicht auf. So gut es eben geht, versuchen sie gegenzusteuern und sich dem Klimawandel anzupassen. Unterstützt von ausländischen Hilfsorganisationen hat Malis Regierung einige Projekt auf den Weg gebracht, die die Situation dokumentieren und – wenn möglich – Abhilfe schaffen sollen. „Das beginnt mit der Sammlung elementarer Klima- und Niederschlagsdaten, geht über die Ausbildung der Landbevölkerung und mündet schliesslich im Regenmachen―, erläutert Gakou. „Nur mit verlässlichen Daten können wir uns einen Überblick über das Ausmass der Veränderungen verschaffen und den Wandel wissenschaftlich einwandfrei dokumentieren.― Wie auf dem Acker von Bäuerin Samake messen landesweit schon rund 1500 Messstellen die täglichen Regenmengen. So erhällt Gakous Behörde erstmals verlässliche Daten aus den nur schwer zugänglichen ländlichen Bereichen des Landes. Mitten auf dem Acker von Frau Samake steht es jetzt, das äusserlich an ein übergrosses Sektglas erinnernde Regenmessgerät. Im Inneren des nach oben offenen Trichters befindet sich ein Gefäss mit einer Skala, die täglich von den beteiligten Bauern abgelesen wird. Wöchentlich leiten sie ihre Daten an die Erfassungsstelle der Behörde weiter. „Zum ersten mal haben wir ein Mass, wie stark die Niederschlagsmengen vor Ort variieren― erläutert die Bäuerin. Die zwölffache Mutter ist von Anfang an an dem Projekt beteiligt und sichtlich begeistert von dem Gerät, dass so gar nicht in die archaisch anmutende Umgebung mit ochsengezogenen Pflügen zu passen scheint. „Meine Kinder und Nachbarn haben sich längst an den merkwürdigen Apparat auf unserem Maisacker gewöhnt.― Auch die anfängliche Skepsis der Dorfbewohner konnte sie mit Hilfe der genauen Werte ausräumen. „So haben wir jetzt erstmals das Gefühl selbst auch etwas gegen den Wandel um uns herum tun zu können und nicht nur sein hilfloses Opfer zu sein―, sagt Samake entschlossen. Um schon die nachwachsende Bevölkerung frühzeitig an die Umweltprobleme und mögliche Lösungen heranzuführen, wird nahe Ouéléssébougou gerade ein so genanntes Bio-Kamp aufgebaut. In einem für drei Jahre angelegten Pilotprojekt soll Jugendlichen und Heranwachsenden aus der Umgebung beigebracht werden, welche Pflanzen man am besten wann und wo anbaut und wie Wasser eingespart oder gar gewonnen werden kann. Zu praktischen Tips zum Ackerbau kommen Grundlagen und Spezialwissen zur Biologie der Pflanzen und technische Anleitungen etwa zum Brunnenbau. Einen ganz speziellen Weg der Wasserbeschaffung beschritt Mali in Zusammenarbeit mit der US-Firma „Weather Modification Corp.―: Seit Mai 2006 versucht man mit einigem Erfolg künstlich Regen zu machen. In Bamako (West-), Ouéléssébougou (Zentral-), und Kidal (Ostmali) stehen Flugzeuge mit Sprüheinrichtungen bereit, die an Vorrichtungen zum Ausbringen von Pestiziden erinnen. „Nein nein―, sagt der Meteorologe Laouola san Asarrm vom meteorologischen Dienst Mali. „Hier werden keine Pestizide verspritzt, sondern fein gemahlenes Salz ausgebracht.― Haben die Meteorologen einmal mit dem Radar eine vielversprechende Wolke erspäht, On Assignment #10, September 2009 schicken sie ein mit Salz beladenes Flugzeug in ihre Richtung. „In der Wolke angekommen versprüht es das Salz und stellt den feinen Wasserströpfen der Wolke die nötigen Kondensationkeime zur Verfügung damit sich grössere Tropfen bilden können, die dann als Regen zur Erde fallen. „Mit Hilfe der Flugzeuge konnten wir eine lokale Steigerung der Niederschläge um 15 bis 20 Prozent erreichen―, erläutert Asarrm stolz. Aber auch mit diesen technischen Raffinessen lässt sich das Fehlen von Regen nur bedingt ausgleichen – zumal geeignete Wolken nicht jeden Tag zur Verfügung stehen. „Wir brauchen Hilfe von der internationalen Staatengemeinschaft, um unsere Projekte weiter auszubauen―, so Asarrm. „Um dem grossen oberflächlichen Abfluss der Regenmengen zu begegnen und das Wasser etwa für Bewässerungen nutzen zu können, planen wir den Bau von Dämmen und Rückhaltebecken. Aber das kostet alles viel, viel Geld.― Desillusioniert aber von typisch afrikanischem Improvisationstalent beseelt blicken Malis Menschen weiter nach vorn und arbeiten an speziellen Lösungen für ihr Land. Aber was ist mit der internationalen Politik, den Versprechungen und Zusagen vergangener Jahre? Kann Mali auf konkrete Ergebnisse und Zusagen bei der kommenden Weltklimakonferenz in Kopenhagen setzen? „Was ich von der Weltklimakonferenz im Herbst erwarte?― so Gakou auf die Frage nach den zukünftigen Aussichten auf Hilfe durch die UN und den Weltklimarat. „Nun, wir hoffen, dass die Industrienationen endlich ihrer Verantwortung am Klimawandel gerecht werden, ihren Worten auch endlich Taten folgen lassen und ihren CO2Ausstoss sofort um mindestens 20 bis 30 Prozent reduzieren. Ausserdem müssen die Industrieländer uns helfen, damit wir uns besser an die Folgen des immer schneller fortschreitenden Klimawandels anpassen können.― Grosse Hoffnungen setzen die Menschen etwa auf einen erleichterten Technologietransfer, der es ihnen ermöglicht neue Technologien nutzen zu können ohne sich an den Patentzahlungen noch weiter verschulden zu müssen. Gakous Blick senkt sich und mit einem einem trauri- gen Augenzwinkern fügt er hinzu: „Naja, Klimagerechtigkeit wäre hier das passende Stichwort – zumal Afrika nur rund drei Prozent zum weltweiten Treibhausgasausstoss beiträgt, aber umso mehr unter dessen Folgen leidet. Aber grosse Hoffnungen auf die baldige Einlösung längst gegebener internationaler Versprechen habe ich nicht mehr. Nur zerrinnt uns hier in Afrika die Zeit zwischen den Fingern – genauso wie der ehemals fruchtbare Boden!― http://www.media21geneva.org/index.p hp?option=com_content&task=view&id =809&Itemid=421 Mali's new eco-training camp By Tobin HACK, 21 October 2009 Sierra Magazine Mali, one of the world's poorest countries, is among those being hit hardest by climate change. mEDIa21 Monts Mandingues, in Djissoumabougou, Mali. Conceived in 2006, the camp sprang out of a convention signed by the Malian government and the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD). Funding for the camp comes from UNCCD, an NGO called the Malian Folk Center, and Mali‘s government. Today, the campus is nearly complete— the dorms, cafeteria, and classrooms stand empty in wait. In an open green space in the middle of campus, a new well pump waits eagerly for eco-warriors to use it. Beside the pump stands a neem tree, to be used by students as a non-chemical insecticide on the organic crops they‘ll help raise. Around the corner, jatropha plants—to be pressed and filtered into sustainable biodiesel—bide their time. When Camp Bio‘s doors open in 2010, Malian and international students will travel there for one- and two-week sessions. At any given time, an estimated 200 students will work and study on campus, sharing ideas and acquiring skills they‘ll need to help their communities mitigate and adapt to the climate changes coming their way. http://sierraclub.typepad.com/greenlife/ 2009/10/a-new-ecotraining-camp-inmali-to-combat-desertification-.html Ouverture prévue pour 2010, près de Bamako Floods plague its southern half during the rainy season, while its north is a landscape of unforgiving agricultural terrain, desiccated land that‘s turning into desert, spreading south, and forcing inhabitants farther from home. As temperatures rise, epidemics of diseases like malaria and meningitis become more frequent and severe. As in many such developing countries, there‘s a great need for climate-change mitigation and adaptation assistance, an important component of which is environmental education. Enter Camp Bio, a new eco-training camp nestled in the forêt classée des Swiss Minergie house By Mariona VIVAR, China Europa TV / Alternative Channel (French, English, Chinese) Max Schneider et sa maison Minergie à la Vallée de Joux Video in French with english subtitles. Link with Chinese version. http://www.china-europa.org/indexgb.asp 7 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks L’ adaptation du Mali aux défis climatiques By Pablo de ROULET,14 October 2009, Le Courrier , Geneva Le pays africain connaît un essor hétéroclite. Bousculées par le péril climatique, tant ses campagnes que ses villes se défendent comme elles peuvent. «La diminution du niveau d'eau est très visible depuis quelques années», explique Ibrahim Lefa, natif de la ville de Ségou et conducteur depuis dix ans d'une barque à moteur sur le fleuve Niger. «Les effets sont très forts durant la saison sèche. En avril et en mai, il faut régulièrement pousser le bateau à la main pour le sortir des bancs de sable. Le trajet de Ségou à Mobti prend quatre jours, au lieu de trois auparavant.» Le constat de ce jeune navigateur illustre une des grandes inquiétudes des services environnementaux du Mali: «Depuis 1960, le débit des fleuves a baissé de moitié», se désole Sidi Konaté, fonctionnaire au Secrétariat technique permanent (STP). Cet organisme transversal, regroupant notamment les Ministères de l'envirronnement et de l'agriculture, est chargé depuis 1998 des mesures d'adaptation au réchauffement climatique. Sa stratégie repose tant sur la technologie que sur la sensibilisation de la population. «Le delta intérieur du Niger est passé durant cette période de 37 000 à 15 000 km2, poursuit Sidi Konaté. La baisse de la vitesse du débit des rivières entraîne une prolifération des végétaux flottants et un ensablement des cours d'eau. Les conséquences se ressentent autant sur la pêche, la navigation, la production hydroélectrique que l'irrigation. Cela provoque un accroissement dramatique de la malaria et l'apparition de nouvelles maladies.» Ce ralentissement du débit des cours d'eau est le résultat d'une baisse de la moyenne des précipitations sur l'ensemble du Mali. «Les sohyètes (lignes reliant les points de précipitations égales, ndlr) sont descendues de 200 kilomètres vers le sud en moyenne», détaille Sidi Konaté. 8 Déforestation importante Alors que la zone désertiques'étend sur le Sahel et que celui-ci fait disparaître peu à peu la zone tropicale humide de la géographie du Sud malien. La déforestation importante des dernières décennies ne fait qu'aggraver le problème. Conséquence du réchauffement climatique, la saison des pluies, à l'origine de juin à octobre, se raccourcit progessivement sur la période de juillet à septembre. Tandis que les précipitations sont beaucoup plus fortes durant cette période. Des conditions climatiques qui mettent en péril l'agriculture malienne. Les cultures essentielles à l'alimentation de la population, telles que le maïs, le mil, le riz ou le sorgho, n'ont plus le temps d'arriver à terme. Et, pendant cette courte saison, des inondations activent l'érosion et abîment les sols agricoles. Confrontés à cette situation, les différents services du STP organisent une observation minutieuse des pluies en collaboration avec les paysans. Un réseau de pluviomètres a notamment été installé dans différents villages dans tous le pays. Des agriculteurs et, plus souvent, des agricultrices sont chargés de collecter les données qui seront compilées au niveau national. Elles servent aux paysans pour décider quand planter. «Mes observations me permettent de dire à l'ensemble des familles du village le moment où elles doivent commencer à ensemencer leurs lopins de terre», explique Sali Samaka, paysanne cinquantenaire à Tamala, dans la région de Kati, devant le pluviomètre dont elle a la responsabilité. Sa charge bénévole permet de modérer l'inquiétude des agriculteurs face à l'irrégularité croissante des saisons. Le STP cherche également à sensibiliser les populations rurales pour appliquer des modèles agricoles alternatifs. Les revenus plus élevés que peuvent atteindre les produits biologiques pourraient pousser de nombreux paysans à s'intéresser à ce modèle. «Un paysan peut être illettré, mais pas stupide! Quand le cours du coton tourne autour des 6000 francs CFA (13,9 francs suisses), sur une tonne, avec du `bio', c'est 11 000 francs CFA (25,5 francs suisses) qu'un agriculteur peut toucher», explique Ramata Diaouré, journaliste spécialisée dans les questions environnementales. Ainsi, un «camp bio» en construction aux environs de Bamako permettra, dès 2010, de donner des formations de six mois à une centaine de jeunes agriculteurs. «Nous avons déjà une pépinière. Le but est de promouvoir des espèces en voie de disparition et favoriser le replantage, pour limiter l'avancée du désert», explique Oumou Dicko, géographe et assistante à l'aménagement rural pour le STP. Ensemencement des nuages La sensibilisation des agriculteurs vise également à limiter le gaspillage et à favoriser la récupération de l'eau de pluie. «Utiliser ces ressources pour boire ou pour la lessive est une habitude qu'on a perdue», explique Ramata Diaouré, devant quelques bidons de récupération installés au «camp bio». «Cet enjeu de formation est important. On laisse filer ce bien précieux alors que le garder demande des efforts minimes et ne coûte rien.» Contrôle à la station des eaux usées de la brasserie Bramali à Sénou : une initiative pionnère. Mais pour les autorités maliennes, chercher la collaboration avec les agriculteurs repose aussi sur le partage des outils technologiques pour maintenir l'agriculture. Le développement de nou- On Assignment #10, September 2009 velles variétés au sein d'un institut national doit notamment rendre les plantes plus résistantes à la sécheresse. Pour l'heure, l'«ensemencement de nuages» apparaît comme l'une des techniques les plus efficaces pour produire des pluies artificielles. Lorsque les services météorologiques détectent des nuages qui ont un «potentiel de pluie», un avion est ensuite envoyé pour y larguer de l'iode d'argent. Chimiquement très proche du sel, celui-ci provoque la condensation de la vapeur d'eau... «Les nuages produisent ensuite de la pluie en l'espace de trente à quarante minutes. Cela a permis d'augmenter les précipitations de 15% à 20 % sur tout le pays», explique Daouda Zan Diarra, chef du Service météorologique du Mali. Efficace entre mai et octobre, cette technique ne provoquerait pas d'effets secondaires négatifs sur l'eau, selon les Services d'hydrologie, mais permettrait, au contraire, une augmentation de la production agricole allant jusqu'à 50%. «Cette technique est utilisée au Mali depuis 1968, quand j'étais encore à l'école», s'amuse Daouda Zan Diarra. «Une compagnie américaine faisait ce travail. Ce n'est plus le cas. Une centaine d'opérations ont été effectuées cette année par nos propres avions, un pour le nord et un pour le sud du pays.» «Vol» de la technologie Pourtant, en matière de technologie, c'est surtout la frustration vis-àvis des pays riches qui prédomine chez les reponsables des programmes environnementaux. Le protocole de Kyoto, qui a institué le marché du carbone, prévoyait des transferts de technologies «vertes» pour soutenir le développement économique du Sud parallèlement à la réduction des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Résultat: «Nous n'avons simplement rien reçu! En fait, la technologie ne se transfert pas. Soit on la vole comme le font les Chinois, soit on n'obtient rien!» juge amèrement Mamadou Gakou, directeur du STP Un . constat qui fait douter du réél potentiel de la réunion de Copenhague sur le climat en décembre prochain: «Nous avons pourtant besoin de ces technologies, et le bon sens voudrait qu'on soit soutenus pour mener des programmes adaptés à la région, comme l'énergie solaire.» http://lecourrier.ch/index.php?name=New s&file=article&sid=443824 Météo: quand la censure frappe By Pablo de ROULET,14 October 2009, Le Courrier , Geneva «La question de la censure météorologique n'est malheureusement pas prévue à l'ordre du jour de la réunion de Copenhague», regrette le météorologue éthiopien Solomon Johanes. A l'heure du réchauffement global, les prévisions du temps sont pourtant un domaine «très sensible» dans de nombreux pays du Sud, où, pour les météorologues, il est de plus en plus difficile de diffuser des alertes. Un exemple: «En cas d'inondation, la loi argentine prévoit un gel des prix et une suspension des taxes. Cela permet de comprendre pourquoi une autorité politique peut avoir intérêt à cacher un rapport météo!» explique la météorologue Nadia Zyncenko. «La réaction des autorités peut varier», analyse de son côté Solomon Johanes. «Il arrive qu'une inondation ou une sécheresse soit connue des professionnels, mais que le gouvernement refuse de l'annoncer, pour ne pas effrayer la population. A l'inverse, de nombreux gouvernements élargissent l'aire des catastrophes naturelles lorsqu'ils veulent obtenir de l'aide internationale.» En Ethiopie, en tout cas, «toutes les questions environnementales sont difficiles à rendre publiques, assène le journaliste Eyader Addis. J'ai déjà été prévenu par le Ministère de l'information de ne pas parler de questions comme l'usage de certains pesticides dans l'agriculture qui affectent la santé des individus. L'Etat est impliqué dans le commerce et ne veut pas perdre de revenus. «Souvent, nuance Eyader Addis, la difficulté pour les journalistes d'obtenir des informations météorologiques ne relèverait pas de malveillance, mais d'un personnel incompétent, installé pour sa proximité mEDIa21 avec le pouvoir. «Avant d'être divulgués, et donc utilisés par des agronomes ou des journalistes, nos rapports de prévisions saisonnières doivent être estampillés par la hiérarchie», confirme Solomon Johanes. Une situation qui rend le travail des journalistes encore plus difficile. Sans compter que les pouvoirs politiques ne sont pas toujours conscients des enjeux des observations météorologiques sur le long terme et rechignent à en améliorer l'efficacité. «Quand j'ai besoin d'utiliser une prévision météo, il arrive que les documents aient simplement été mis à la poubelle», déplore Eyader Addis. «Si les médias avaient le droit de diffuser librement ces prévisions, elles pourraient être utilisées correctement et servir à une meilleure préparation des agriculteurs. Mais des données sont parfois mauvaises et imprécises également à cause du manque de matériel adéquat. Le pays est très pauvre, mais le gouvernement n'hésitera pas à mettre beaucoup d'argent dans un radar militaire. Pas pour la météo!» http://lecourrier.ch/index.php?name=New s&file=article&sid=443824 Les enjeux de Copenhague By Pablo de ROULET,14 October 2009, Le Courrier , Geneva Dix-sept ans après Rio La réunion de l'Organisation des Nations Unies sur le réchauffement climatique se tiendra à Copenhague du 7 au 18 décembre 2009. Il s'agit de la quinzième rencontre annuelle sur ce thème depuis le sommet de Rio en 1992. > Les enjeux. Les positions les plus attendues sont celles de la Chine et des Etats-Unis, responsables de la moitié des émissions de gaz à effet de serre. Pour les pays du Sud, particulièrement africains, l'ambition est de déboucher sur un accord permettant des transferts de technologie et un soutien financier (de la part des pays riches) afin de mieux s'adapter au réchauffement global. 9 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks > Kyoto 1997. Le sommet tenu au Japon s'achève sur la signature du protocole de Kyoto, premier calendrier «contraignant» 37 pays industrialisés à réduire leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre de 5,2 % à l'horizon 2012. Les Etats-Unis ne l'ont pas ratifié. > Rio 1992. La réunion de Rio avait réuni pour la première fois 172 pays avec à la clé le premier accord international pour la réduction des gaz à effet de serre. La Convention-cadre des Nations Unies sur les changements climatiques (CCNUCC) n'était toutefois conçue que comme une position de principe sans effet contraignant. http://lecourrier.ch/index.php?name=Ne ws&file=article&sid=443824 Bamako entre modernité et inégalités By Pablo de ROULET,14 October 2009, Le Courrier , Geneva Les investissements pétroliers stimulent la construction d'infrastructures de luxe. La ville de Bamako est engagée dans une transformation profonde. D'ici à quelques années, le visiteur, touriste, commercial, coopérant ou émigré de retour au pays s'en rendra compte dès son entrée dans la nouvelle aérogare flambant neuve de Bamako-Sénou. Après les formalités d'usage, l'arrivée au centreville par l'un des ponts du Niger permet d'observer la nouvelle cité ministérielle déjà en construction, puis de clinquants hôtels et banques le long des rives réaménagées sur plusieurs kilomètres. Avec un peu de chance, le nouveau pont de l'Amitié et l'échangeur de l'avenue Kwame N'Krumah permettront peut-être d'échapper aux embouteillages. Résultat: «Le Mali aujourd'hui peut accueillir n'importe quelle conférence ou rencontre internationale», résumait au Journal du Mali, début septembre, Oumar Balla Touré, directeur de l'Office malien du tourisme et hôtellerie. Les développements récents de Bamako permettent de prendre la mesure de l'importance des nouveaux flux de capi- 10 taux au Mali. Venus essentiellement de pays pétroliers, ceux-ci laissent leur trace dans la toponymie urbaine. Ainsi, le «pont du roi Fahd» a été financé à travers l'Organisation de la conférence islamique, et la Cité Venezuela, un ensemble de logements sociaux pour 860 familles, a été construit grâce à des dons. Mais la société d'investissement Malibya et d'autres privés libyens constituent les principaux bailleurs de fonds étrangers. Alors que le savoir-faire chinois est mis à profit pour les travaux d'ingénierie. Les investissements les plus importants se concentrent toutefois sur des projets dispendieux, symboles d'un urbanisme de prestige, plutôt que sur les besoins des quartiers pauvres ou modestes. Un seul exemple: le système d'égouts est vétuste et à ciel ouvert. Souvent utilisé comme décharge, le réseau se traduit par un ensemble relié de cloaques ensablés, dans lesquels pataugent ordures ménagères et moustiques. Une couverture dallée et un écoulement d'eau plus régulier épargnent ce désagrément aux quartiers plus cossus. Les développements d'un nouveau pont et d'un échangeur, destiné à décongestionner le trafic dans cette ville de deux millions d'habitants, risquent de leur côté d'aggraver la ségrégation urbaine. Les différents quartiers de Bamako se sont longtemps distingués par «un niveau frappant d'hétérogénéité», pour reprendre les mots de l'urbaniste Austin Kilroy, du Massachusets institute of technology (MIT). Mais l'accroissement des écarts entre riches et pauvres depuis la décennie des années 1990, mettant à mal l'importante mixité sociale qui caractérisait la capitale, s'est accompagné d'un développement de quartiers riches à forte valeur foncière et immobilière. Certains sont nouveaux, tel l'ACI 2000, ou revalorisés, comme le quartier de l'Hippodrome et ses dizaines de piscines privées. Une circulation facilitée a toutes les chances d'accélérer le phénomène. On peut noter, à ce titre, le premier quartier entouré de murs bientôt en construction, Canal 2. «Le site offre un cadre de vie très agréable à l'abri des nuisances de la ville», proclame fièrement une publicité de la Société immobilière et foncière du Mali, vendant des parcelles d'une communauté protégée proche du futur pont de l'Amitié. La cité ministérielle flambant neuve – dont l'aspect de gâteau de mariage favorise une unité esthétique avec les autres constructions libyennes – concentrera les principales administrations sur un périmètre de quelques hectares cerclé de barrières. Ainsi, le modèle actuel qui voit la dispersion de cellesci sur plusieurs quartiers auxquels ils sont intégrés touche à sa fin. L'investissement dans l'amélioration des services urbains de base n'est pas absent, mais il est nettement moins important. Et pour cause, ceux-ci sont à la charge de la mairie de Bamako – dans un pays où seul un pourcentage très maigre de la fiscalité revient aux municipalités – ou de petits privés. Ces derniers gèrent le ramassage des poubelles, en se finançant grâce aux «clients» capables de payer pour ce service. Si on peut également constater le développement de projets clairement orientés vers la qualité de vie de la population, comme le nouvel hôpital universitaire Gabriel Touré, le tableau global est bien celui d'un développement urbain très inégalitaire. Suivant un modèle déjà présent dans d'autres pays du tiers monde, deux types d'espace se mettent en place de façon connexe. Le premier, destiné à une minorité privilégiée et aux investisseurs ou ambassadeurs étrangers, concentre les richesses et les investissements. Le second, celui d'une majorité pauvre, ne bénéficiera que des miettes des grands développements urbains. http://lecourrier.ch/index.php?name=Ne ws&file=article&sid=443826 Les journalistes en reportage en Haute-Savoie Vidéo de Clément GIRARDOT et Cécile TRAN-TIEN, climate21.wordpress.com En marge de la 3ième Conférence mondiale sur la climat qui s‘est déroulée du 31 août au 4 septembre dernier à Genève, l‘organisation Media21 a invité une On Assignment #10, September 2009 vingtaine de journalistes du monde entier à participer à un atelier de formation sur l‘environnement. Au programme de cette semaine, rencontre avec des experts et des représentants du secteur privés et voyage sur le terrain pour observer au plus près les effets des changements climatiques. Nous avons suivi le groupe de journalistes le mercredi 2 septembre aux Gets pour la visite de la chaufferie au bois puis à la Mer de Glace de Chamonix. über eine Anpassung an eine sich verschlechternde Situation. Denn selbst wenn wir alle Treibhausgasemissionen sofort stoppen könnten, gebe es noch einen spürbaren Wandel. Beispielsweise muss Vorsorge gegen Naturkatastrophen wie Wirbelstürmen, Überflutungen oder Dürren getroffen werden, die künftig wohl häufiger über uns hereinbrechen werden und auf allen Kontinenten das Leben bedroht. Europa ist da nicht ausgenommen. Man denke nur an die Hitzewelle im Jahre 2003, die Tausenden von Menschen das Leben kostete. Le journaliste kenyan John Njiru, un des participants à l‘atelier de Media21 Video link : http://www.media21geneva.org/index.p hp?option=com_content&task=view&id =787&Itemid=421 By Gerhard SAMULAT, 6 October 2009, schlaulesen.de Mit Michel Jarraud lässt sich trefflich übers Wetter reden: Er ist Generalsekretär der World Meteorological Organization WMO, der internationalen Vereinigung der Meteorologen und Klimaforscher. Aus ihr ging vor einigen Jahren auch das zwischenstaatliche Expertengremium IPCC hervor, das für seine Warnungen vor dem Klimawandel zusammen mit dem ehemaligen USVizepräsidenten und heutigen Handlungsreisenden in Sachen Umwelt, Al Gore, vor zwei Jahren mit dem Friedensnobelpreis ausgezeichnet wurde. Gerhard Samulat sprach mit Generalsekretär Michel Jarraud über klimatische Gefahren und Perspektiven. Was ist von Kopenhagen zu erwarten? Aufgabe der Politiker in Kopenhagen wird es sein, sich Gedanken zu machen (Anm. d. Red.: Das sind gewaltige zyklische Luft- und Wassermassenbewegungen im pazifischen Raum). Ferner gibt es unter uns Wissenschaftlern Diskussionen, ob es in den Tropen künftig wirklich mehr Hurrikane geben wird. Augenscheinlich scheint es jedenfalls mehr von den starken Stürmen zu geben, von der Heftigkeit eines Wirbelsturmes wie Katrina, der im Jahr 2005 die Millionenstadt New Orleans unter Wasser setzte. Wir verbessern darüber hinaus kontinuierlich unsere Langzeitvorhersagen. Zum Beispiel bieten wir Afrika bereits Monate im Voraus eine Prognose für die nächste Regenzeit an. Wichtige Fragen sind: Beginnt sie früher als normal? Ist sie länger? Intensiver? Die dort heimischen Bauern brauchen das für die Planung ihrer Saat und Ernte. Aber Restunsicherheiten bleiben. Excursion organisée en Partenariat avec la Région Rhône-Alpes et l‘agence Rhône-Alpes Energie Environnement. Wir müssen dagegenhalten mEDIa21 Wie genau sind die Prognosen? Mit jedem Bericht stieg die Sicherheit, dass der Klimawandel menschengemacht ist. Der Report des Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC geht jetzt davon aus, dass sich das Weltklima durchschnittlich um zwei bis 4,5 Grad erhöht. Unsere Modelle sind da heute deutlich genauer geworden. Nun können wir sogar prognostizieren, wie sich die Lage in unterschiedlichen Regionen ändert, in Gebirgen oder im Flachland, mit welchen Niederschlägen beispielsweise im Mittelmeer zu rechnen ist oder was der Klimawandel für die Ozeane bedeutet, wenngleich wir nicht von der gleichen Präzision träumen können, wie bei der täglichen Wettervorhersage. Der El-Niño ist die große Unbekannte Zudem können wir einige Effekte noch immer nicht mit ausreichender Genauigkeit beschreiben. Zum Beispiel ist noch nicht klar, wie groß beispielsweise der Einfluss des regelmäßig wiederkehrenden El-Niños auf den Klimawandel ist Selbstverständlich. Das führt oft zu einem Dilemma. Für Entscheidungsträger ist es erfahrungsgemäß schwer, mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten umzugehen. Sie lieben Aussagen wie Ja oder Nein. Dennoch können wir in vielen Fällen bereits mit hoher Sicherheit Monate im Voraus Prognosen wagen, beispielsweise dass es im Norden Brasiliens eine Dürre gibt, wenn sich der El-Niño ausbildet. Das können wir, weil die Ozeane träge reagieren. Das wirkt stabilisierend. Wir werden aber voraussichtlich niemals in der Lage sein, so etwas wie einen Tornado früher als einige Stunden im Voraus vorhersagen zu können. »Die Geschwindigkeit, mit der die Polkappen schmelzen, hat viele Wissenschaftler überrascht« Verzwickt sind überdies sich selbst verstärkende Klimaerscheinungen. Ein Beispiel ist das Abschmelzen der Polarkappen: Je stärker das Eis schmilzt, desto weniger reflektiert es das Sonnenlicht, umso eher erwärmt sich das Gebiet. Und das Eis schmilzt noch rascher. Da kann es auch für uns noch zu Überraschungen kommen. Ernste Sorgen macht uns derzeit zudem das Abschmelzen des Eises auf dem Land, auf Grönland, der Antarktis und in den Gebirgen. Dadurch steigen die Meeresspiegel. Das wird der- 11 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks zeit genauestens untersucht und es wird bald einen IPCC-Report dazu geben. Klar scheint zu sein, dass dieser Prozess schneller zu sein scheint als viele Wissenschaftler es vorausgesehen haben. Es gibt aber doch noch viele Skeptiker, die den Klimawandel leugnen, zumindest dass er von Menschen gemacht ist. Der IPCC-Report spiegelt einen außergewöhnlich hohen Konsens der Wissenschaft wider. Die Skeptiker bilden dagegen eine Minderheit, die von Tag zu Tag kleiner wird. Selbstverständlich sind alle Aussagen über das Wetter und das Klima mit Unsicherheiten verbunden. Das bedeutet aber nicht, dass es keinen wissenschaftlichen Konsens für die große Linie gibt. Wie sieht es eigentlich mit dem wirtschaftlichen Schaden des Klimawandels aus? Der britische Ökonomen Nicholas Stern schätzt die Kosten des Klimawandels auf jährlich wenigstens fünf Prozent des globalen Bruttoinlandsprodukts. Wenn wir nicht umgehend handeln, wird es sogar deutlich mehr. Mit seinem Report hat Stern im Jahre 2006 vielen Leuten die Augen geöffnet. Vorher arbeiteten Klimatologen und Wirtschaftswissenschaftler aneinander vorbei, manchmal sogar gegeneinander. Die ganze Frage über die Höhe der Kosten steckt aber noch in den Anfängen. Wir bräuchten viel mehr Leute, die beide Disziplinen kombinieren, was sicherlich nicht einfach ist: Sind KlimaVorhersagen bereits komplex, so gilt dies noch mehr für die Finanzmärkte. Das liegt unter anderem daran, dass wenn die Leute die Vorhersagen ernst nehmen, es oft das Ergebnis verändert. Das ist beim Klima – glücklicherweise – nicht so. »Jeder Euro für die Wetterdienste bringt der Volkswirtschaft zehnfachen Gewinn« Mit der Weltbank versuchen wir nun zudem, den Nutzen von Investitionen in die Wetter- sowie Klimainfrastrukturen abzuschätzen. Dabei kam heraus, dass 12 eine Investition von einem Euro in Vorhersagemodelle oder in den Ausbau von Messstationen der metrologischen Dienste im Schnitt einen volkswirtschaftlichen Nutzen von mehr als zehn Euro erbringt, egal ob in Entwicklungsländern oder Industriestaaten. Bei dieser Rendite könnte ich mir vorstellen, dass viele Unternehmen großes Interesse hätten, zu investieren (lacht). Leider erhielte nicht eine einzige Person den »Jackpot«. Den »Gewinn« streicht die nationale Wirtschaft ein, die Landwirtschaft oder Versicherungen. Es wäre ein ethisches Investment. Ferner versuchen wir in einem weiteren Projekt mit der Weltbank zusammen mit dem Welt-Ernährungsprogramm und dem meteorologischen Dienst Äthiopiens einen sogenannten Dürre-Index zu definieren. Oft reagiert die internationale Gemeinschaft auf Katastrophen erst, wenn Menschen sterben oder die Medien anfangen, darüber zu berichteten. Wir wollen früher dagegenhalten, wenn klimatische Indikatoren bereits darauf hinweisen, dass in absehbarer Zeit beispielsweise mit einer Dürre zu rechnen ist. Der metrologische Dienst übernimmt in diesem Programm so etwas wie die Rolle des Schiedsrichter: Sind gewisse Grenzwerte erreicht, löst das automatisch Hilfsleistungen aus, mit denen etwa Nahrungsmittel gekauft werden können. Das betroffene Land muss also nicht erst warten, bis es zu spät ist. Die Weltbank garantiert dabei die Finanzierung. Ein ähnliches Projekt findet in Mali statt. Wenn sich die als erfolgreich herausstellen, wollen wir sie auf andere Länder ausdehnen. Gibt es auch Gewinner des Klimawandels? Russland und Kanada könnten vom Klimawandel profitieren Russland könnte ein solcher sein. Einige Wirtschaftszweige könnten dort vom Auftauen des Permafrostbodens profitieren. Die landwirtschaftlich nutzbare Fläche des Landes verschöbe sich nach Norden. Ferner erleichtert sich der Zugang zu den Ressourcen im Polarmeer. Der Süden dieses riesigen Landes wird dessen ungeachtet unter dem Klimawandel leiden. Wegen Wassermangel wird es dort öfter Dürren geben. Aber auch in Deutschland hören einige Industrievertreter das Wort Klimawandel nur sehr ungern. Trotzdem akzeptieren mittlerweile alle Regierungen, dass etwas gegen den Klimawandel unternommen werden muss. Die Frage ist ausschließlich, was und mit welcher Geschwindigkeit. Und wer wie viel zahlen soll. Das wird dann im Dezember in Kopenhagen verhandelt. Wir liefern ausschließlich die wissenschaftlichen Fakten. Wer etwas über Klimafragen liest, wird oft erschlagen von den vielen verschiedenen Organisationen, die sich damit beschäftigen. Können Sie ein wenig Ordnung in unser Leben bringen. Wie ist beispielsweise die Verbindung der WMO zum IPCC? Die Politiker orientieren sich an Fakten aus mehreren Quellen. Eine wichtige ist der IPCC-Report. Dieses Intergovernal Panel of Climate Change wurde im November 1988 vom Umweltprogramm der Vereinten Nationen (UNEP) und unserer Organisation ins Leben gerufen. Die IPCC-Mitarbeiter sitzen hier in Genf im gleichen Gebäude wie wir. Viele Menschen wissen aber nicht, dass das IPCC selbst keine Forschung betreibt. Die Autoren fassen ausschließlich den Stand des Wissens zusammen. Der basiert auf Erkenntnisse, die beispielsweise im Weltklimaforschungsprogramm (WCRP) erarbeitet werden, einem Programm, das von der UNESCO – die Organisation der Vereinten Nationen für Erziehung, Wissenschaft und Kultur – und uns unterstützt wird. Zudem orientieren sich die Politiker an der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen UNFCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). Die besitzt zwei ständige Untereinheiten, den Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI, Nebenstelle für das Inkraftsetzen) und den Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA, Nebenstelle für wissen- On Assignment #10, September 2009 schaftlich-technische Beratung). Beide werden von der World Meteorological Organization mit Daten versorgt. Wir liefern also die Grundlagen für die politische Entscheidungsfindung. Das Gespräch führte Gerhard Samulat. Links zum Thema: * World Meteorological Organization * Michel Jarraud * IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change * Weltklimaforschungsprogramm (WCRP) * Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen http://www.schlaulesen.de/index.php?w o=text&was=33&PHPSESSID=beaa2ade df6e737 Mali: la météo, alliée des paysans By Soumaila T. DIARRA , 30 September 2009, Syfia Mali Au Mali, des paysans apprennent à faire des relevés pluviométriques dans leurs champs et à transmettre leurs informations au service météorologique. Ce dernier diffuse ensuite des bulletins à la radio et à la télévision qui servent de repères aux agriculteurs, soucieux d‘augmenter leur production. Un atout précieux en période de dérèglements climatiques. "J‘ai entendu à la radio qu‘il y aura moins de pluies aujourd‘hui. Je vais donc désherber mon champ. Ces informations sont utiles, car, en cette période de l‘année, une journée ensoleillée peut vite devenir pluvieuse, ce qui n‘est pas bon lorsqu‘on désherbe", explique Seydou Samaké, un paysan de Tamala. Dans ce village situé à environ 60 km au sud de Bamako, la capitale malienne, avec le climat qui se dérègle, les pluies ont été tardives cette année. Dans les vastes étendues vertes de champs de mil, les paysans s‘activent donc pour profiter du soleil annoncé, en partie grâce aux efforts de Sali Samaké, une agricultrice alphabétisée en bambara. Cette dame fait partie de plus de 1 700 paysans formés, à travers le pays et dans leurs langues maternelles, par le gouvernement malien, aux techniques de relevés pluviométriques et d‘observations agro météorologiques. Le travail de ces "paysans de contact", selon Daouda Zan Diarra, responsable national de ce programme d‘assistance, consiste, entre autres, après chaque pluie, à mesurer le niveau des précipitations. Disposant d‘un téléphone ou d‘un récepteur-émetteur radio, ils envoient leurs données pluviométriques et observations sur les cultures au service météorologique national. Puis, un groupe pluridisciplinaire (scientifiques, représentants d‘ONG, paysans, communicateurs) traite les informations brutes et élabore les avis et conseils qui repartent vers les paysans. En bout de chaîne, ces avis sont en effet diffusés à la radio et à la télévision nationales 12 heures en moyenne après que les relevés aient été effectués dans les champs. Par ailleurs, "des dispositions sont prises pour que les membres des groupements et associations villageoises puissent accéder aux conseils grâce aux paysans de contact", ajoute Daouda Zan Diarra. "Paysans semi-autonomes " Les avis et conseils permettent de prendre des décisions rationnelles. A la veille de la saison des pluies, entre avril et mai, le groupe multidisciplinaire fait ainsi des prévisions, que les paysans guettent attentivement. "Cette année, il a commencé à pleuvoir un peu tard, vers juillet. La météo nous a alors conseillé de semer certaines variétés de céréales au cycle court jusqu‘en août", témoigne Adama Samaké, un agriculteur de Tamala. "Pour ma région, elle peut annoncer que du 11 au 30 juin, on peut semer des variétés de 120 jours dès que le cumul des pluies recueillies au cours d‘une dizaine de jours atteint ou dépasse 20 mm", explique Sali Samaké. Par ailleurs, des guides de semis, sortes d‘aide-mémoire, sont mis à la disposition des producteurs sur la base de l‘analyse notamment des données climatologiques et agronomiques de leur zone. "Le paysan mEDIa21 sait quelle variété choisir pour quel type de sol en fonction de ses propres observations", commente Daouda Zan Diarra. Meilleurs rendements L‘assistance météorologique couvre cinq régions sur les huit que compte le pays, les autres n‘étant pas propices à l‘agriculture. Elle a commencé depuis 1996 et apporte une meilleure sécurité alimentaire et davantage de revenus aux paysans. Dans le cadre de l‘assistance météorologique au monde rural, une enquête socio-économique a montré que la moitié de ceux qui ont cultivé le sorgho ont presque triplé leur rendement de 500 à 1 325 kg/ha. Pour le mil, les rendements ont plus que doublé, passant de 350 à 800 kg/ha. Les rendements progressent, l‘organisation aussi. Au niveau des services publics ruraux, des outils de communication ont été installés pour la transmission des données, des stations agro météorologiques ont été créées et des véhicules mis à disposition de l‘équipe de pilotage pour la coordination et le suivi des activités de terrain. Malgré un bilan que les responsables du programme jugent satisfaisant, l‘assistance agro météorologique rencontre toujours des difficultés. "Dans certaines localités, les paysans n‘ont aucune idée de l‘importance des informations de la météo. Ils n‘ont pas de téléphone et reçoivent difficilement la radio nationale", souligne Adama Samaké. Par ailleurs, les radios privées et certaines langues nationales ne sont pas encore utilisées pour la diffusion des bulletins météo. Associée à d‘autres opérations, cette assistance gagnera sans doute à l‘avenir en efficacité. "Les pluies provoquées, qui ont augmenté la pluviométrie de 10 à 15 %, sont un volet important devant se renforcer avec les deux avions que nous venons d‘acheter", raconte Daouda Zan Diarra. http://www.syfia.info/index.php5?view= articles&action=voir&idArticle=5194 est ainsi semi-autonome, car il possède aussi un pluviomètre avec lequel il mesure, au jour le jour, la pluie tombée. Il 13 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks Cidadão pode pagar para conter o aqueciento global By Sérgio ADEODATO, 28 Septembre 2009, Planeta Sustentável Se você tem renda superior a US$ 9 mil por ano - equivalente a pouco mais de R$ 1,3 mil mensais -, prepare-se: pode sair do seu bolso uma parte do dinheiro para combater o aquecimento global. A proposta consta do ―Estudo Econômico e Social Mundial 2009 -- Promover o Desenvolvimento, Salvar o Planeta‖, recém-divulgado pela ONU O ―Estudo Econômico e Social Mundial 2009 -- Promover o Desenvolvimento, Salvar o Planeta‖, divulgado pela Organização das Nações Unidas na 3ª Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre Clima, no início de setembro, em Genebra, analisa quanto custará a adaptação do mundo às mudanças climáticas, os impactos econômicos e sociais para os países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, e as soluções para alcançar os valores necessários. O relatório faz alertas e traz novidades, a menos de 100 dias da COP-15 - a reunião da Convenção do Clima (leia o especial Rumo a Copenhague ), que será realizada em dezembro, em Copenhague, na Dinamarca, para definir um novo acordo mundial sobre o clima. A ONU sugere uma nova fórmula para aumentar os recursos mundiais destinados ao controle do clima: os países que têm maior faixa de população com renda acima do ―limiar do desenvolvimento‖ - conforme diz o estudo - pagariam mais para compor um fundo global para a redução de emissões e adaptação contra os impactos do aquecimento. O limite de US$ 9 mil foi proposto ilustrativamente como padrão, considerando a renda per capita dos diferentes países. A fórmula prevê no plano nacional a cobrança de taxas - como imposto de renda -, aos cidadãos que ganham acima desse valor. A proposta é que cada país tenha direito 14 de emitir determinada cota de poluentes por habitante, mas também assuma a obrigação de pagar para reduzir as emissões atmosféricas. O valor é calculado com base no tamanho da população com rendimento acima do limite previamente acordado entre os países. Assim, estaria garantido o direito das nações mais pobres ao crescimento econômico. Com essa proposta, é a primeira vez em que a ONU incorpora oficialmente o conceito de ―Greenhouse Development Rights‖ (GDR), que consiste em dividir o fardo da redução dos gases do efeito estufa conforme a capacidade financeira dos países e sua responsabilidade histórica pela poluição. Seguindo esse critério, a Europa contribuiria com US$ 32,9 bilhões em cada US$ 100 bilhões de financiamento para o clima. Os Estados Unidos entrariam com R$ 47,7 bilhões e, o Japão, com US$ 11,2 bilhões. ―É um caminho justo para os países em desenvolvimento também participarem do esforço mundial contra as emissões de gases-estufa‖, afirma Richard KozulWright, coordenador do relatório. ―As mudanças climáticas impõem um modelo de justiça, um mecanismo global de financiamento e um novo e amplo acordo, como o Plano Marshall para a recuperação da Europa após a II Guerra Mundial‖, adverte Kozul-Wright. Ele diz que, nas próximas duas décadas, o mundo precisa investir US$ 1 trilhão por ano para a redução de poluentes atmosféricos e a adaptação aos impactos do aquecimento. Mais da metade dos custos corresponde aos países em desenvolvimento. ―No entanto, atualmente, apenas US$ 21 bilhões de fundos oficiais para o desenvolvimento são destinados para enfrentar as mudanças no clima‖, afirma o estudo. A ONU alerta que ―a transição para a economia de baixo carbono deve acontecer imediatamente‖. A proposta de pagamento conforme a renda da população tem o objetivo de aumentar os recursos adicionais contra o aquecimento, especialmente nos países em desenvolvimento, que serão os mais prejudicados. ―É importante resgatar o ambiente de confiança entre ricos e pobres‖, diz Kozul-Wright. ―É de longa data o fracasso dos países desenvolvidos na hora de cumprir compromissos de apoio internacional para reduzir a pobreza e esse é o principal obstáculo ao desafio climático‖, aponta o relatório. Estimativas mencionadas no estudo mostram que, para cada 1º C de aumento na temperatura média global, o crescimento dos países pobres diminui 3%, sem nenhum prejuízo para a economia dos países ricos. Ao mesmo tempo, as nações industrializadas têm emissões per capita seis a sete vezes superiores às dos países em desenvolvimento. De acordo com a ONU, a participação ativa de todos os países na luta contra as mudanças no clima só será viável se o mundo em desenvolvimento mantiver um rápido crescimento econômico. Será necessário suprir a necessidade de energia nessas regiões, dentro de uma matriz de baixo carbono -- com redução de combustíveis fósseis, principal fonte dos gases que alteram o clima do planeta. Em todo o mundo, além de energia para mover indústrias e sistemas de transporte, é preciso investir cerca de US$ 25 bilhões nos próximos 20 anos para atender entre 1,6 bilhão e 2 bilhões de pessoas que, hoje, não têm eletricidade. O ―Estudo Econômico e Social Mundial 2009 -- Promover o Desenvolvimento, Salvar o Planeta‖, divulgado pela Organização das Nações Unidas na 3ª Conferência das Nações Unidas sobre Clima, no início de setembro, em Genebra, analisa quanto custará a adaptação do mundo às mudanças climáticas, os impactos econômicos e sociais para os países em desenvolvimento, como o Brasil, e as soluções para alcançar os valores necessários. mEDIa21 On Assignment #10, September 2009 O relatório faz alertas e traz novidades, a menos de 100 dias da COP-15 - a reunião da Convenção do Clima (leia o especial Rumo a Copenhague), que será realizada em dezembro, em Copenhague, na Dinamarca, para definir um novo acordo mundial sobre o clima. A ONU sugere uma nova fórmula para aumentar os recursos mundiais destinados ao controle do clima: os países que têm maior faixa de população com renda acima do ―limiar do desenvolvimento‖ - conforme diz o estudo - pagariam mais para compor um fundo global para a redução de emissões e adaptação contra os impactos do aquecimento. O limite de US$ 9 mil foi proposto ilustrativamente como padrão, considerando a renda per capita dos diferentes países. A fórmula prevê no plano nacional a cobrança de taxas - como imposto de renda -, aos cidadãos que ganham acima desse valor. A proposta é que cada país tenha direito de emitir determinada cota de poluentes por habitante, mas também assuma a obrigação de pagar para reduzir as emissões atmosféricas. O valor é calculado com base no tamanho da população com rendimento acima do limite previamente acordado entre os países. Assim, estaria garantido o direito das nações mais pobres ao crescimento econômico. Com essa proposta, é a primeira vez em que a ONU incorpora oficialmente o conceito de ―Greenhouse Development Rights‖ (GDR), que consiste em dividir o fardo da redução dos gases do efeito estufa conforme a capacidade financeira dos países e sua responsabilidade histórica pela poluição. Seguindo esse critério, a Europa contribuiria com US$ 32,9 bilhões em cada US$ 100 bilhões de financiamento para o clima. Os Estados Unidos entrariam com R$ 47,7 bilhões e, o Japão, com US$ 11,2 bilhões. ―É um caminho justo para os países em desenvolvimento também participarem do esforço mundial contra as emissões de gases-estufa‖, afirma Richard KozulWright, coordenador do relatório. ―As mudanças climáticas impõem um modelo de justiça, um mecanismo global de financiamento e um novo e amplo acordo, como o Plano Marshall para a recuperação da Europa após a II Guerra Mundial‖, adverte Kozul-Wright. Planisie de riso em San Oveste : un programa de LuxDev Ele diz que, nas próximas duas décadas, o mundo precisa investir US$ 1 trilhão por ano para a redução de poluentes atmosféricos e a adaptação aos impactos do aquecimento. Mais da metade dos custos corresponde aos países em desenvolvimento. ―No entanto, atualmente, apenas US$ 21 bilhões de fundos oficiais para o desenvolvimento são destinados para enfrentar as mudanças no clima‖, afirma o estudo. A ONU alerta que ―a transição para a economia de baixo carbono deve acontecer imediatamente‖. A proposta de pagamento conforme a renda da população tem o objetivo de aumentar os recursos adicionais contra o aquecimento, especialmente nos países em desenvolvimento, que serão os mais prejudicados. ―É importante resgatar o ambiente de confiança entre ricos e pobres‖, diz Kozul-Wright. ―É de longa data o fracasso dos países desenvolvidos na hora de cumprir compromissos de apoio internacional para reduzir a pobreza e esse é o principal obstáculo ao desafio climático‖, aponta o relatório. Estimativas mencionadas no estudo mostram que, para cada 1º C de aumento na temperatura média global, o crescimento dos países pobres diminui 3%, sem nenhum prejuízo para a economia dos países ricos. Ao mesmo tempo, as nações industrializadas têm emissões per capita seis a sete vezes superiores às desenvolvimento. dos países em De acordo com a ONU, a participação ativa de todos os países na luta contra as mudanças no clima só será viável se o mundo em desenvolvimento mantiver um rápido crescimento econômico. Será necessário suprir a necessidade de energia nessas regiões, dentro de uma matriz de baixo carbono -- com redução de combustíveis fósseis, principal fonte dos gases que alteram o clima do planeta. Em todo o mundo, além de energia para mover indústrias e sistemas de transporte, é preciso investir cerca de US$ 25 bilhões nos próximos 20 anos para atender entre 1,6 bilhão e 2 bilhões de pessoas que, hoje, não têm eletricidade. http://planetasustentavel.abril.com.br/n oticia/desenvolvimento/cidadao-podepagar-conter-aquecimento-global502119.shtml Growing focus on gender and climatechange as COP15 approaches By Tobin Big Think HACK, 25 September 2009, You already know that the world‘s poor are being hit first and will suffer most as a result of climate change. Think Katrina, think flooding in Bangladesh, think desertification in Mali. What you may not know is that in many parts of the world women draw the shortest straw of all when it comes to the ramifications of climate change. In many developing countries, women are in charge not only of child rearing but also fetching firewood for cooking, walking (often hours a day) to collect water, and farming. So what happens as deforestation spreads in these areas? Women walk further and spend even greater portions of each day searching for the firewood they need to cook dinner. Similarly, as water tables fall and the frequency of drought increases, women walk further each day for water. 15 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks Compounding the problem is the fact that critical weather and climate information seldom reaches the women who need it, in order to know when to plant a particular crop, where to look (or where not to look) for water, or when to evacuate for a flood. Men who stay home or walk into town and hear weather news on the radio often fail to share this information with their wives and families. And when disaster does come – whether in the form of flood or famine – women are more tied down than are men, less mobile, less readily able to relocate as the climate changes and the lives they knew are pulled out from under them. ―If gender considerations are not sufficiently incorporated into a new climate deal, millions of lives stand to be lost. This is due to the pivotal role women play in especially poor, rural areas most acutely affected by the impacts of climate change,‖ said Lorena Aguilar, Senior Global Gender Advisor to the International Union for Conservation of Nature, at a gender and climate change training drive in Bangkok yesterday. The good news is that this gendered aspect of climate change adaptation – hugely underreported to date – has recently received attention at several major international climate change forums. A gender and climate change forum at this month‘s World Climate Conference in Geneva was devoted entirely to women‘s issues, climate change, and weather information distribution systems. The event didn‘t draw as big an audience as did panels on water management, for example, but as its speakers noted, it‘s exciting to finally see the issue share a high profile podium in any capacity. And Wednesday of this week (Climate Week NYC), the TckTckTck Campaign brought together a group of over 60 big-name guests from media, policy, government, business, NGOs and entertainment from all over the world for a conference titled Global Women Take Action on Climate Change . Guests – among them Sustainable South Bronx director Majora Carter and Inuit activist Sheila Watt-Cloutier – gathered to give personal testimonies about the havoc 16 climate change is wreaking in their own countries, and to discuss the role women will play in climate change adaptation as we move toward the Copenhagen debates (COP15) in December. ―We have been trying for so long to tell the world ‗you‘re hurting us,‘‖ said WattCloutier of Inuit women‘s struggle to win the world‘s attention. ―And they say ‗okay, but it costs too much to stop hurting you.‘‖ Watt-Cloutier hopes that COP15 will mark a much-needed transition from an economic focus on climate change mitigation to climate change adaptation, and that women will be at the forefront of ―moving this issue from the head to the heart.‖ http://bigthink.com/tobinhack/growingfocus-on-gender-and-climate-change-ascop15-approaches Mali’s unknown global warming (Os limites da pobreza) By Sérgio ADEODATO, 25 September 2009, Valor Economico Abstract Poverty makes it hard to tackle the impact of climate change. But Mali show the way in Africa by using this battle as a development tool. A new UN report calls for bold investments in this field A República do Mali, na África, retrata como o desenvolvimento é chave para combater o aquecimento global Bamako Sep 25 - É mês do Ramadã, data sagrada na qual os mulçumanos celebram a fé e jejuam da alvorada ao por do sol. À noite, auto-falantes ecoam orações nas cidades da República do Mali, na África, um dos países mais pobres do mundo. Os homens rezam em grupo, ajoelhados ao ar livre nas calçadas. Na localidade de Tamala, o lavrador Adama Samané suplica por chuva. Ele acredita no ―milagre‖ da velha idéia de utilizar aviões para injetar sal em nuvens e produzir tempestades. O governo maliano gastou nos últimos cinco anos US$ 14 milhões, pagos a uma empresa americana, para fazer chuva. E garante que, nos locais dos sobrevôos, as precipitações aumentaram até 25% durante a estação úmida, com incremento de 50% na produção agrícola. Avisados sobre a ―chuva‖, os produtores planejam melhor o plantio e os solos perdem menos nutrientes. O projeto começou com objetivo de amenizar a seca que fazia explodir doenças, como a meningite. Mas a tecnologia é polêmica. Já foi aposentada na maior parte do mundo -- inclusive no Brasil, onde há mais de uma década chegou a ser utilizada para molhar o sertão do Ceará e até abastecer reservatórios de água em São Paulo, mas mostrou-se técnica e economicamente inviável. O atraso expõe os limites da pobreza na luta contra o aquecimento global. Em Mali, os impactos preocupam. Desde a década de 1970, as chuvas diminuíram 20% e o Deserto do Saara, que ocupa grande extensão de área no Norte do país, aumentou 200 km para o Sul. Na região de Mopti, próxima ao deserto, a temperatura média atual é 1º C mais quente que 50 anos atrás. A desertificação é evidente, com a redução do volume dos rios entre 40% e 60% nos últimos 30 anos. O delta do Rio Niger, a mais importante planície alagável do oeste africano, está reduzido a menos da metade. Perde por ano 30 bilhões de metros cúbicos de água e entope com os sedimentos que escorrem das plantações, agravando a desertificação. O impacto não afeta só os crocodilos. Com menos água e mais calor, o rio sofre a invasão de plantas exóticas, que prejudicam a navegação e a geração de energia hidrelétrica. O problema também rebaixou os lençóis de água subterrânea, obrigando a perfuração de poços cada vez mais profundos para abastecer a população. ―A mudança no clima reduziu as terras boas para pastagens, aumentando conflitos entre proprietários‖, revela Sidi Konaté, do Centro Nacional de Pesquisa e Ciência. Ele acrescenta: ―já não sabemos quando começa e termina a mEDIa21 On Assignment #10, September 2009 estação chuvosa, o que tem aumentado a necessidade de irrigação, com maior pressão ambiental sobre os rios‖. Incêndios florestais são mais frequentes. ―Estamos preparando um amplo programa nacional para aprimorar a observação de mudanças e minimizar os efeitos do aquecimento global, com 19 projetos prioritários‖, anuncia Mamadou Gakou, chefe da secretaria de governo responsável pela área ambiental em Mali. ―Precisamos melhorar a gestão do país‖, completa Gakou, aguardando ajuda financeira da Suécia, Dinamarca, Alemanha e Holanda. Mas há um problema: a corrupção. Tanto a Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) como as principais ONGs ambientalistas dizem as nações ricas precisam socorrer as mais pobres com recursos na casa das centenas de bilhões de dólares por ano para a adaptação às mudanças no clima. Mas existem dúvidas sobre o real destino do dinheiro, sendo necessário criar um mecanismo global de controle. ―Pelo menos 10% da ajuda internacional que chega a Mali é desviada pela corrupção‖, lamenta Michel Cadalen, coordenador do Programa de Cooperação Bilateral Mali-Luxemburgo. Do total de US$ 3,8 bilhões investidos anualmente em desenvolvimento econômico e social no país, a maior parte -- cerca de US$ 2,4 bilhões (63%) -- tem como origem recursos do exterior. Outra barreira é o fator cultural. Quando tornou-se independente da França, na década de 1960, Mali tinha 3 milhões de habitantes. Hoje são 12 milhões e 85% dependem dos modelos tradicionais de produção no campo. ―Plantar árvores, reduzindo a área produtiva, é visto como insulto aos chefes das comunidades‖, explica Cadalen. A ordem dos caciques locais é mais poderosa que as leis oficiais e a religião influencia no sistema de distribuição da terra. ―Quando a situação aperta, a população apela para o governo e não raro os problemas são resolvidos via corrupção‖, conta Cadalen . Ele lembra que a mistura entre o atraso das práticas tradicionais, o aumento da população e a desertificação resultante do aquecimento global causa um problema difícil: o êxodo para as grandes cidades. A cidade de Bamako, capital do Mali, é retrato do caos. Trata-se de um enorme mercado a céu aberto. De frutas e verduras a camas e armários, tudo se vende nas ruas sem qualquer controle fiscal ou de higiene. Enchentes são comuns e param o transito com número crescente de motos e carros velhos, emissores de fumaça negra -- sinal de um país pobre que cresce sem dar importância para o aquecimento global. Elefantes brancos inacabados, como as obras do aeroporto e dos novos prédios dos ministérios, aguardam mais verbas. Também está no esqueleto o moderno edifício em estilo futurístico do serviço de meteorologia de Mali, o mesmo que espera pela ajuda dos países ricos para vencer os impactos do aquecimento. Na orla fluvial da cidade, destaca-se o luxuoso arranha-céu do Central Bank of West African States com seus 20 andares. Em contraste, a cidade não tem saneamento básico: todo esgoto é despejado sem tratamento no rio Niger. A maioria dos fornos e fogões é abastecida à lenha, com emissão de fuligem no ar, contribuindo para o efeito estufa e para a incidência de doenças. A expectativa de vida é de 45 anos para os homens e de 49, para as mulheres. ―A nossa cultura é baseada na calma: o mundo pode estar acabando, mas para nós está tudo bem‖, afirma o guia turístico maliano Barry Amadou. É preciso ter paciência nas estradas. São numerosas as barreiras montadas por policiais corruptos para cobrar ―pedágio‖. Às margens da rodovia que é rota do tráfico de drogas para a vizinha Nova Guiné, uma escola rural criada pelo governo em parceria ONG Mali Folk Center faz experimentos em pequena escala contra a desertificação, como reflorestamento e agricultura orgânica. ―Apesar das dificuldades, é possível lutar contra os impactos do clima‖, diz a geógrafa Oumon Dicko, assistente do projeto. ―Mas os produtores não estão interessados no futuro do clima e sim no que acontece hoje‖, rebate Boubakar Dembele, responsável pelos mecanismos de desenvolvimento do país. ―Precisamos de tecnologia, mas principalmente de capacidade para usála‖, conclui. ―Os produtores estão sentindo na pele e no bolso os efeitos do aquecimento‖, garante o meteorologista Daouda Diarra. Na cidade de San, no leste do país, uma associação de proprietários rurais implanta técnicas mais eficientes de irrigação e usa defensivos naturais para proteger o solo, conseguindo multiplicar por 10 a produtividade local de arroz, carro-chefe da agricultura no país. Com 6 milhões de euros do governo de Luxemburgo, o projeto envolve hoje 500 produtores. Há 2 mil na fila. ―Adaptação às mudanças climáticas não é só plantar árvore, mas também ter terra para em condições para cultivar alimento‖, afirma Patrick Denis, coordenador técnico do programa. ONU pede “audacioso” investimento Os países ricos precisam repassar aos menos desenvolvidos entre US$ 500 bilhões e US$ 600 bilhões por ano adicionais para a mitigação e a adaptação às mudanças climáticas, segundo novo cálculo do Departamento de Assuntos Econômicos e Sociais das Nações Unidas. Os valores, três vezes superiores aos debatidos até o momento nas negociações sobre clima, constam no Estudo Econômico e Social Mundial 2009, divulgado no começo de setembro na 3ª Conferência Mundial sobre Clima, em Genebra. ―Somente cifras mais audaciosas podem evitar que investimentos em tecnologias de produção suja continuem sendo realizados e, por sua longa vida útil, impeçam novas alternativas nas próximas décadas‖, afirma o relatório. Até o momento, os fundos internacionais repassaram apenas US$ 200 milhões para a adaptação ao clima. ―No total, somando os investimentos realizados internamente pelos países industrializados para reduzir emissões e mudar a matriz energética, o mundo 17 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks precisará de US$ 1 trilhão nos próximos 20 anos‖, prevê Richard Kozul-Wright, coordenador do estudo. Ele alerta: ―será necessário um esforço global tão importante quanto no pós-Guerra‖. A ONU enfatiza que a participação ativa de todos os países para enfrentar o desafio climático só acontecerá se as nações em desenvolvimento puderem reduzir a pobreza e manter um rápido crescimento econômico. Para isso, segundo o relatório, será necessário satisfazer a demanda por energia nessas regiões. Para atender entre 1,6 bilhão e 2 bilhões de pessoas que hoje não têm eletricidade no mundo, serão necessários US$ 25 bilhões por ano, nas próximas duas décadas. Estima-se que a capacidade de gerar energia no mundo em desenvolvimento será o dobro da registrada nos países ricos nas próximas décadas. ―Nas negociações sobre clima, a pergunta que se faz é como os mais pobres podem continuar o caminho do desenvolvimento com baixo nível de emissões e alto crescimento‖, afirma o estudo. Os países em desenvolvimento, segundo conclui o relatório, estão enfrentando desafios muito mais difíceis que as nações mais ricas. ―Tanto sob o ponto de vista ético, como político e econômico, é inaceitável a idéia de congelar o nível atual de desigualdade mundial durante os próximos 50 anos ou mais, enquanto o mundo tenta resolver o problema climático‖. As estimativas mencionadas no relatório mostram que, para o aumento de 1º C nas temperaturas médias globais, a economia dos países pobres deixará de crescer entre 2% e 3%, sem qualquer mudança no crescimento esperado dos países ricos, que têm emissões per capita em média seis a sete vezes superiores às das nações em desenvolvimento. 18 O rio Niger em Ségou A ameaça do “carbono negro” Entre os diferentes gases do efeito estufa, o maior vilão é o dióxido de carbono (CO2), emitido pela queima de combustíveis fósseis em automóveis e indústrias no mundo industrializado. Mas o planeta precisa abrir os olhos para poluentes até hoje coadjuvantes nos estudos científicos e nas negociações sobre clima. ―A ação mais rápida contra o aquecimento global exige políticas e tecnologias também contra os gases lançados pela queima de lenha para cozinhar e aquecer residências e pelo escapamento de motores a diesel, entre outras fontes‖, adverte Achim Steiner, diretor-executivo do Programa das Nações Unidas para o Meio Ambiente (Unep). Os cientistas estimam que quase 50% das emissões que provocam as mudanças climáticas são os chamados ―poluentes não-CO2‖, como metano, ozônio de baixa atmosfera, compostos de nitrogênio e material particulado -- a fuligem, também conhecida como ―carbono negro‖. São poluentes que afetam a saúde humana, os cultivos agrícolas e ecossistemas, como as florestas. ―Neste momento crítico, quando o mundo se prepara para decidir o futuro do clima, em Copenhague, não podemos negligenciar os demais poluentes que causam o aquecimento‖, afirma Steiner. Ele diz que essas fontes poluidoras tem peso importante nos países em desenvolvimento. ―Ao considerá-las, podemos desenvolver estratégias mais eficazes e menos dispendiosas‖, destaca o climatologista Drew Shindell, da Universidade de Columbia, nos Estados Unidos. De acordo com dados da ONU, a fumaça com ―carbono negro‖ está entre os poluentes inalados dentro das residências, gerando de 1,8 milhões de mortes prematuras por ano, além das 800 mil causadas pela contaminação do ar no ambiente externo. Calcula-se que esses poluentes causam entre 20% e 50% mais impactos no clima do que o dióxido de carbono. O ozônio, por exemplo, causa a perda de 5% da produção de cereais nos Estados Unidos. Até 2100, poderá reduzir em 40% a produção agrícola global. http://www.media21geneva.org/index.p hp?option=com_content&task=view&id =777&Itemid=421 The weather lords (Senhores do tempo) By Sérgio ADEODATO, 24 Septembre 2009, Valor Economico Abstract The global climate predictors in their Geneva headquarters, the World Meteorological Organization: who are they, what do they think, can their oracle change our economic patterns? Quem são, onde trabalham e como pensam os líderes mundiais que fazem as previsões sobre o clima com poder de mudar a economia Um imponente edifício de vidros verdes chama atenção próximo à sede da Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU), em Genebra, na Suíça. Na recepção, um painel na parede exibe a temperatura de 26º C, quente para os padrões suíços após o verão -- e dá pistas sobre o ofício do lugar. Construído com critérios ambientais para aproveitar a luz solar e aumentar a eficiência energética, o prédio da Organização Metereológica Mundial (WMO, em inglês) é o quartel general das previsões sobre o clima global e seus impactos. Quem trabalha naquelas salas tem o poder dos gráficos, dos mapas e dos cifrões para interferir nas decisões sobre o futuro do planeta. Mudanças na matriz energética, investimentos na economia On Assignment #10, September 2009 de baixo carbono e adaptação das empresas e dos países para os efeitos do aquecimento dependem, em primeira instância, dos sinais de alerta e dos comandos que partem daquele prédio. Estima-se que pelo menos US$ 500 bilhões circularão por ano no mundo para reiventar a economia. "Investir agora em informação climática é o melhor caminho para garantir à atual e às futuras gerações a capacidade de gerir riscos e perceber as oportunidades das mudanças no clima", afirma o russo Alexander Bedritsky, presidente do WMO, em sua sala no oitavo andar do edifício. Ex-chefe do Serviço Federal de Hidrologia e Vigilância Ambiental da Rússia, Bedritsky mudou os rumos da área climática naquele país em tempos de reforma econômica. Hábil nas negociações dos acordos internacionais de meio ambiente, prepara-se agora para a batalha a ser travada em dezembro na COP 15, em Copenhague. Rajendra Pachauri. "Estou otimista", revela o indiano Rajendra Pachauri, presidente do Painel Intergovernamental de Mudanças Climáticas (IPCC), criado há 21 anos pela ONU para fornecer ao mundo uma visão científica clara sobre o estado das alterações climáticas, seus impactos no ambiente e suas consequências econômicas. O relatório divulgado pela entidade em 2007 reuniu evidências e confirmou cientificamente a suspeita: o planeta está aquecendo como resultado das atividades humanas, com efeitos que podem ser catastróficos. "É certo que o tempo é muito curto, mas o acordo virá no último minuto", prevê Pachauri, lembrando que "o Protocolo de Kyoto não foi observado pelos países desenvolvidos". Ele completa: "todos os dias adiamos a ação e assim só aumentamos o problema". Especializado em energia, Pachauri começou a carreira produzindo locomotivas a diesel, na Índia. Hoje prega alternativas contra as emissões e, ao comandar um time sênior que observa as mudanças no clima, frequenta os corredores do WMO. No edifício funciona o escritório central do IPCC. No oitavo andar, doze funcionários coordenam o trabalho de 2.500 cientistas de todo o mundo. O consultor científico Masaya Aiba iniciou os preparativos para o próximo relatório sobre o clima global, aguardado com expectativa para 2014, quando provavelmente já estarão em curso novas políticas e mecanismos que podem ser criados em Copenhague para reduzir emissões de gases-estufa no período pós-Kyoto. Na sala ao lado, Brenda Abrar-Milani tem a tarefa de gerir 1 milhão de euros do Prêmio Nobel da Paz, recebido pelo IPCC em 2007. Metade do recurso será aplicada em cursos de PHD na Europa para cientistas de países pobres, com objetivo de capacitá-los a prever mudanças e enfrentar os impactos do clima em suas regiões. "A iniciativa privada entrará com mais 500 mil euros para ampliar o programa", revela Brenda, sentada à mesa na cafeteria situada no terraço do prédio, com vista para o Lago de Genebra e para o edifício-sede da ONU com seus extensos jardins. Ela revela: "importantes decisões sobre o clima são tomadas olhando para esse cenário". Entre as decisões mais recentes está a de criar uma rede mundial de serviços climáticos, assunto exaustivamente debatido na 3º Conferência Mundial sobre Clima, realizada pelo WMO em Genebra, entre 31 de agosto a 4 de setembro, com a participação de 20 chefes de estado e representantes de 150 países. O objetivo é melhorar a vigilância do clima e a adaptação para os efeitos do aquecimento, criando produtos e serviços específicos para os diferentes setores econômicos nas mEDIa21 diversas regiões do planeta. "Apesar dos avanços científicos, a economia e a população não estão preparadas, e precisamos nos mover rápido, porque os impactos estão chegando e os desastres já são evidentes", adverte o meteorologista Michel Jarraud, que chefiou o sistema europeu de previsões climáticas e desde 2004 é secretário geral do WMO. Ele diz que "as indústrias querem respostas mais precisas e seguras". Na análise de Jarraud, "a informação sobre clima precisa ser integrada ao processo de decisão e ao planejamento dos investimentos de longo prazo, principalmente nos países em desenvolvimento". Depois que o IPCC divulgou em 2007 o seu quarto relatório, comprovando que a temperatura do planeta aumentou em torno de 0,8º C desde o início da era industrial, as bases científicas para acompanhar essas mudanças e seus efeitos evoluíram muito. "Mas ainda há lacunas e incertezas", explica Roberta Bosccolo, do WMO. Ela coordena o programa mundial para unificar metodologias, integrar os dados regionais e criar um modelo único de previsão climática. "Não há dúvida que o planeta como um todo está mais quente, mas sabemos pouco sobre o aquecimento e seus impactos em nível regional", afirma Roberta. Setores como o de energia, agricultura, transportes e turismo aguardam previsões mais precisas para tomar decisões. A meta é fazer projeções seguras para cada 10 anos. "A investigação é chave para saber com clareza o que acontecerá com as economias dos países em desenvolvimento, como Brasil, China e Índia, essenciais para o controle do clima global", completa Roberta, física especializada no estudo sobre a influência dos oceanos no clima. "A produção agrícola depende do que acontece nos oceanos", diz Mannava Sivakumar, diretor da Divisão Mundial de Aplicações e Serviços Climáticos do WMO. Ele explica que a relação entre correntes marinhas e atmosfera é chave nos novos modelos para melhorar as previsões climáticas. "Mas, apesar das tecnologias estarem melhor 19 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks documentadas, o seu uso está longe do ideal em muitos países", lamenta o cientista. Pesquisadores dos principais centros mundiais de observação do clima unem esforços para superar limites. Em tempos de aquecimento global, prever chuva ou sol precisa ir além do que vemos todo dia na TV -- e que muitas vezes nos enganam. "Erros nas previsões são agora problemas cruciais", revela Tim Palmer, do Centro Europeu de Previsões Climáticas."Precisamos de boas observações e computadores em massa". Para Jeray Meehl, do National Center for Atmospheric Research, dos Estados Unidos, "os atuais modelos climáticos não são capazes de atender às necessidades mundiais até 2100". O aquecimento, segundo ele, impõe uma nova era: a dos serviços climáticos. Trata-se da previsão sobre clima focada na mitigação e na adaptação às mudanças. "O desafio é traçar cenários com maior precisão para os próximos 30 anos, incluindo o ciclo de carbono nas previsões", revela Meehl. No sétimo andar o edifício do WMO, o moçambicano Felipe Lucio guarda nas paredes da sala as fotos da enchente que matou 700 pessoas e causou prejuízo de US$ 500 milhões, em 2000, em Moçambique. Na época, Lucio comandava a área de meteorologia naquele país e montou um rigoroso sistema de alerta para a catástrofe não se repetir. Hoje ele trabalha no programa global de redução de desastres, orientando os países a criar leis e adotar tecnologias para tomar decisões rápidas contra inundações outros efeitos extremos do aquecimento. "As mudanças no clima alteram o cenário de riscos, pois os eventos extremos se tornam mais intensos e frequentes, mas falta muito por fazer nos países em desenvolvimento", afirma Lucio. Ele lembra que cada US$ 1 investido na prevenção de desastres ambientais representa uma economia de US$ 8 a US$ 10 no custo das ações de emergência. No prédio de Genebra onde trabalham 20 os "profetas" do clima, são compilados dados para prevenir doenças. "Precisamos de informações sobre clima mais precisas para evitar problemas como a malária, que começa a atingir regiões antes imunes", adverte Maria Neira, diretora do Departamento de Saúde e Meio Ambiente, da Organização Mundial da Saúde. Segundo a especialista, o mundo registra hoje 60 mil mortes por ano diretamente ligadas às mudanças climáticas. Há previsão de um aumento de 35% da população vulnerável à dengue até 2030. "O desafio é reforçar o sistema de saúde", afirma Neira, lembrando que as ações de mitigação, ao reduzir a emissão de gases, podem em paralelo diminuir as atuais 800 mil mortes por ano no planeta resultantes da poluição atmosférica. Quando o assunto é aquecimento global, o mundo descobriu que precisa falar a mesma língua. A questão é complexa. "É preciso traduzir um problema mundial para as realidades locais", ressalta Somesewhar Singh, da Cruz Verde Internacional. Ele alerta: "um terço da população mundial vive na pobreza e não tem respostas sobre o que acontecerá com ela". Para Jean Fabre, do Programa das Nações Unidas para o Desenvolvimento, "a falta de informação é um abismo perigoso, pois estamos falando de garantir condições de vida para as futuras gerações". Entre as personalidades com trânsito livre nos escritórios do WMO está Gro Harlem Brundtland -- a ex-primeiraministra da Noruega que presidiu em 1987 a Comissão Brundtland, produzindo o primeiro e mais famoso relatório da ONU sobre a relação entre desenvolvimento econômico e conservação do ambiente. Ela propõe a criação imediata de um sistema para coleta de dados sobre clima em longo prazo e um mecanismo de alerta prévio. "Agora sabemos que, mesmo se conseguirmos conter e reduzir as emissões de gases, o clima vai continuar mudando e também nós precisaremos mudar, adaptando-se a um clima mais instável", afirma Brundtland, que hoje percorre no mundo como enviada especial das Nações Unidas em palestras e eventos sobre mudanças climáticas. http://www.media21geneva.org/index.p hp?option=com_content&task=view&id =778&Itemid=421 Frequent droughts will impact food production say experts By Jayashree NANDI, The Times of India Geneva Sep 24 - As farmers face another drought, scientists from the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warn that droughts are going to be extreme and frequent in India. Acting director, Climate Prediction and Adaptation Branch, WMO, Mannava Sivakumar spoke to TOI about the climate issues India is facing and what measures it needs to take. What is the biggest climate challenge for India? More than a billion people are hungry today in the world, and the majority are in India and Bangladesh. The numbers in South Asia are more than those in Africa. In 2-3 years, India will face a severe food crisis as there will be an increase in the frequency of extreme events. Food production in India has tripled to 2.4 billion tonnes from 800 million tonnes in 1960. But the population has also increased by leaps and bounds. To add to the issue, now climate change impacts will make it difficult for India to maintain good yields. While India maintains it will not be party to pressure from developed nations for equal targets, internally, we are facing strong climate impacts. How do we balance this conflict? On Assignment #10, September 2009 remote areas and also look at long-term impacts that farmers are going to face. http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/ welcome.asp?skin=pastissues2&QS=Skin% 3Dpastissues2%26Enter%3Dtrue%26Da ily%3Dundefined%26GZ%3DT Mannava Sivakumar I can‘t talk about the international politics of who should accept emission targets. Negotiations or not, India needs to act right now. This year, rainfall has been 30% below normal in India. Because the Indian monsoon is going to be impacted, variability is going to be high. Though agriculture contributes to only around 20% of the GDP, 70% of the population is involved in agriculture. That gives enough reason to concentrate on good climate models and climate communication to farmers from meteorological departments. What kind of impact are we seeing in India? We have been using the same system of irrigation for decades, but now a new system of water management is required. We have valid data that glaciers in the Himalayas are melting. The flow of perennial rivers is going to be impacted. That will impede irrigated agriculture... Soil salination that has already started happening on a large scale is going to take a toll on arable land as well. When I was young, the maximum temperature in Andhra Pradesh was 44 degrees; in the past few years it has been going up to 50 degrees. Seedlings sown during such drought-like conditions cannot withstand high temperatures. How do we deal with this? There has to be a bottom-up movement. A national mission of educating farmers needs to be in place. Political leadership and international negotiations can be separate. I know that the India Meteorological Department is making a big effort. They have at least made a beginning by sending SMS alerts to farmers. But it has to be more nuanced, reaching out to Climate change impact leaves Mali villagers high and dry By Jayashree NANDI, The Times of India Bamako (Mali) 20 Sep - Sali Samake is the most important person in the small Malian village of Tamale, near the capital city of Bamako. Villagers depend on her to plan their harvest because this 45-year-old is the only one to use a pluviometer — rainmeasuring instrument. Mali, one of the poorest African nations, is now facing another danger, that of climate change. Desertification in some parts of the region is intensifying year after year, leaving farmers defenceless to the crisis. Most parts of West Africa, including Mali, have seen a sharp decrease in rainfall since 1970, and consecutive years of droughts till date. There has been 20% decrease in annual rainfall; water level in rivers has decreased by 40% to 60%. The interior delta of river Niger has almost halved, from 37,000 sqkm in 1950 to 15,000 sqkm now. According to studies by the ministry of environment, Mali, temperature in water bodies has risen, leading increase in invading plant species. Fishing, navigation and irrigation have become tough. The scanty, still water is the breeding home to malarial mosquitoes, and there has been increase in the incidence of meningitis too. Rainy season comes and goes at will. ―Now, farmers don‘t know when they have to plant. The season is shorter. This has had a huge impact on the agroeconomy, leading to migration of the young. Families are sending their people to other parts of Africa, Europe and America to earn income for the family,‖ says secretaire technique permanent, Boubacar Sidibi Dembele. mEDIa21 Even as Mali villagers live with disease and acute water crisis, they exude a vibrant spirit of life. Young girls come rushing towards tourist vehicles to sell a native delicacy of sesame and honey sticks; women sell fresh bananas and fruits. Adapting to climate change The region is taking baby steps to adjust to climate change: it‘s offering manual training kits to farmers; the meteorological department is working with ryots to provide them better forecast and exchange information. The cloud-seeding programme is on since 2006. This year alone, there have been 1,000 operations, especially in the northern Kai, Kolokani and Sahelian regions. Cloud-seeding timetables are announced regularly on national television; 25 literate persons have been nominated from different villages who can use the pluviometer and inform farmers about rainwater availability. ―The pluviometer helps us know how much of rain we‘ll get and we can estimate our production accordingly. The village head consults me and plans the harvest with other villagers,‖ says Sali. Even as Mali could be one of the first casualties of climate change, justice is still far away for its denizens, say activists. They can only hear about the forthcoming climate negotiations in Copenhagen (COP 15) for developed nations to accept targets and share real technology, which is now locked by intellectual property rights (IPR) and patents of big companies. http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/ welcome.asp?skin=pastissues2&QS=Skin% 3Dpastissues2%26Enter%3Dtrue%26Da ily%3Dundefined%26GZ%3DT Quand le Mali bombarde le ciel By Isolda AGAZZI , 18 September 2009, Le Temps , Genève Bamako Sep 18 - Les inondations qui frappent le Mali après une sévère sécheresse sont une conséquence du chan- 21 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks gement climatique Le flux ininterrompu de voitures et mobylettes s‘enfonce dans des flaques où flottent les fruits et légumes tombés des étalages. En cette fin de ramadan, les travailleurs qui se pressent pour la rupture du jeûne doivent se frayer un chemin dans une circulation infernale, au milieu de la boue et des canalisations à ciel ouvert qui débordent de toute part sur les rues de Bamako. En une seule journée, il est tombé 250 mm de pluie – la quantité de 45 jours. La saison des pluies va habituellement de mai à juillet, mais cette année il n‘a plu que ces derniers jours. Une conséquence directe du changement climatique, qui provoque des phénomènes extrêmes. «Depuis 1970, la pluviométrie a diminué de 20% au Mali, explique Sidi Konaté, membre du Secrétariat technique permanent (STP) du Ministère de l‘environnement, lors d‘une réunion organisée par le réseau Média 21 à Bamako. La sécheresse augmente, la nappe phréatique diminue et le débit des grands fleuves connaît une baisse de 50%. De nouveaux végétaux flottants apparaissent, qui entravent la pêche ainsi que la navigation et provoquent le paludisme et de nouvelles maladies.» Le démarrage et la fin de la saison humide sont devenus imprévisibles et les paysans ne savent plus quand semer. La migration augmente, l‘écosystème se modifie, il y a moins de pâturages et donc de plus en plus de conflits entre éleveurs, pêcheurs et agriculteurs. Le delta intérieur du Niger connaît une perte annuelle d‘eau de 30 000 milliards de m3 et l‘ensablement et la désertification affectent les habitations, les terres agricoles et les voies de communication. Alors les Maliens ont décidé d‘aider un peu le ciel. «Nous ensemençons les nuages pour qu‘ils donnent plus de pluie, nous explique Daouda Zan Diarra, ingénieur à Mali Météo. On regarde ceux qui ont le plus de potentiel et on envoie un avion injecter du sel pour favoriser la condensation. Une demi-heure après, il pleut là où nous le voulons.» Une opéra- 22 tion entièrement financée par le gouvernement malien, qui a permis d‘augmenter la pluviométrie de 15% et la production de mil, riz, sorgho, arachide et coton, de moitié. Mali Méto propose d‘ailleurs deux bulletins différents: l‘un pour la pluie naturelle et l‘autre pour la pluie provoquée. Elle a aussi développé un programme d‘agro-météo assistance pour aider les paysans, désorientés par le changement de saisons, à établir un calendrier des semences. Mais pour Michel Cadalen, directeur de la coopération luxembourgeoise, le changement climatique n‘explique pas tout: la pression démographique, la mauvaise gestion des ressources naturelles et le système juridique traditionnel d‘attribution des terres sont aussi responsables de la sécheresse. «Au Mali, on peut couper les branches d‘un arbre, mais on n‘a pas le droit d‘en planter un car ce serait un défi au chef traditionnel, qui distribue les terres à son bon vouloir.» Copier comme les Chinois Quelles que soient les causes de ses problèmes environnementaux, aujourd‘hui le Mali a besoin de technologies vertes – énergie solaire, éolienne et nouvelles méthodes d‘irrigation. «Mais nous n‘avons rien reçu! s‘emporte Sidi Konaté, du STP. La technologie ne se transfère pas, il faut la copier, comme les Chinois. La Convention sur le changement climatique n‘a pas trouvé de mécanisme adéquat et la conférence de Copenhague ne va pas le trouver non plus.» http://letemps.ch/Page/Uuid/b0c99c0aa3c9-11de-87ba-3e3d3074a8ec|0 Tamala: un village à l’écoute de la météo By Soumaila T. DIARRA, 16 Septembre 2009, L'aube, Bamako Sep 17 - A Tamala, village situé à près de 4 km de la petite ville de Ouélessebougou dans la région de Koulikoro, les paysans guettent quotidiennement les informations météorologiques. Dans un contexte d‘insécurité climatique, les nouvelles du temps sont devenues le repère de leur calendrier agricole. Le village de Tamala « Les bulletins météo me rendent parfois service. Lorsqu‘on annonce des pluies par exemple, je ne désherbe pas mon champ car les herbes fauchées peuvent ne pas mourir si elles sont arrosées aussitôt», commente Adama Samaké, un paysan de Tamala. Selon ce cultivateur, les paysans ont fortement besoin d‘une assistance météorologique car les saisons de pluie ne démarrent plus en mai. Déjà, un programme officiel existe en la matière. « Les paysans sont formés à l‘utilisation des informations météorologiques. Les saisons de pluie sont maintenant très tardives et courtes, mais en écoutant les bulletins de la météo, les paysans savent quand il faut commencer à semer et quelle variété est adaptée», explique Daouda Zan Diarra, responsable du programme d‘assistance météorologique du Mali. Les prévisions météorologiques quotidiennes permettent aux exploitants de mieux conduire d‘une manière efficace les activités journalières, notamment l‘épandage d‘engrais, le traitement phytosanitaire, l‘entretien des champs (sarclage,démariage,etc.), la récolte et le stockage des productions. Dans le cadre de la production alimentaire, on tient compte de la planification de la saison agricole pour une exploitation rationnelle des ressources à travers le choix des espèces et des variétés, des sites appropriés. Ainsi, le mil, le sorgho et le maïs sont conseillés dans les zones basses ou hautes en cas de mauvaise ou de bonne pluviométrie prévue. On Assignment #10, September 2009 Il y a aussi l‘analyse climatologique et l‘évaluation des ressources agro climatiques (pluviométrie, début, fin et longueur moyens de la saison, etc.). La prévision saisonnière élaborée en avril/mai et mise à jour en juin, permet dès le début de la saison de faire des choix stratégiques en fonction des résultats de cette prévision. Les informations annoncées concernent essentiellement: le calendrier prévisionnel de semis qui permet de conseiller aux paysans de semer sur la base d‘un seuil pluviométrique, et d‘une variété de cultures données. Les paysans, étant formés dans leur langue locale aux techniques d‘observations sur les cultures et sur la pluviométrie et à l‘utilisation du calendrier prévisionnel de semis, peuvent eux-mêmes décider de semer ou pas. La demande par les paysans de prévisions météorologiques quotidiennes de plus en plus localisées est très forte. Ces informations sont utilisées aussi bien par les femmes dans les activités ménagères et artisanales (teinture, séchage) que dans les parcelles familiales ou collectives, car elles contribuent à l‘amélioration du revenu. « Les prévisions météorologiques peuvent nous rendre service sur d‘autres plans. Quand je mène une activité pour laquelle j‘ai besoin de soleil comme la teinture ou le séchage d‘aliment, je dois tenir compte des prévisions du temps », estime Sali Samaké, une ménagère de Tamala. La prévision saisonnière de juillet, août, septembre n‘est pas directement exploitée par les paysans mais par les professionnels de la météorologie, pour réajuster le calendrier prévisionnel en fonction du démarrage de la saison. Les résultats de cette prévision sont toujours très attendus par le monde rural. Cependant, elle est inutilisable dans sa forme actuelle de présentation, d‘une part, et, d‘autre part, elle ne répond pas suffisamment aux préoccupations majeures des paysans, à savoir le début, la fin, la longueur de la saison, les quantités totales de pluies, leur répartition et les épisodes de sécheresse. Aussi, pour être applicable par les paysans, une stratégie d‘adaptation à leurs besoins réels et de transfert de la prévision saisonnière est indispensable. Les avis et conseils ainsi élaborés sont diffusés par la radio nationale plusieurs fois et par les radios de proximité. Résultats Les avantages socio-économiques de l‘application des informations et avis agro météorologiques dépendent en grande partie de la qualité de l‘information élaborée, de sa diffusion en temps réel et de son utilisation correcte par les exploitants agricoles. « L‘assistance météorologique améliore la rentabilité de nos champs lorsque nous suivons bien les conseils donnés », reconnaît Adama Samaké. Les résultats de plusieurs années d‘expérience au Mali ont montré que l‘application pratique des informations agro météorologiques convenablement diffusées sous forme d ‘avis et conseils auprès des paysans permet une augmentation des rendements de 20 à 25% du mil, du sorgho et du maïs. Des milliers de paysans et d‘agents d‘encadrement, y compris les femmes, ont été formés sur les techniques agro météorologiques dans des centaines de villages et dans les langues nationales. Les résultats obtenus ont suscité beaucoup d‘intérêt aussi bien chez les paysans que chez les autorités nationales. Les demandes d‘informations de plus en plus précises, de formation et de pluviomètres (considérés par certains comme intrants agricoles) se sont accrues. Cependant, l‘insuffisance des moyens de transmission et d‘observation des données constitue une limitation à l‘application des avis et conseils agro météorologiques. http://www.media21geneva.org/index.p hp?option=com_content&task=view&id =770&Itemid=421 Energy: to fly around the world - without fuel By Stephen Leahy*, 16 September 2009, IPS journalist based in Canada mEDIa21 DÜBENDORF, Switzerland, Sep 16 (Tierramérica) - A solar-powered aircraft will take flight next month from Switzerland with hopes ultimately to circle the Earth in 2012, without fuel, and stopping every five days only to change pilots. "I'm intrigued by the vision of perpetual flight," mechanical engineer Andre Borschberg, chief executive of the 100million-dollar Solar Impulse project, told Tierramérica. Designed to use only energy from the sun during the day and run on suncharged batteries at night, it could stay aloft perpetually, like the giant, thinwinged Arctic tern that migrates annually from the Antarctic to the Arctic, nonstop. "The big lesson of the Wright brothers is that if you don't try you never succeed," Borschberg told Tierramérica in the Dübendorf Airfield hanger outside of Zurich, where the first prototype was being assembled for a test flight in October or November. The U.S. inventors Orville and Wilber Wright are credited with the first airplane flight in 1903. "They never dreamed that a plane could cross the Atlantic Ocean, and yet less than 25 years later (in 1927) Charles Lindbergh flew from New York to Paris," Borschberg said. "It is our hope that the Solar Impulse will be a symbol to the world and create awareness about our own energy use," he added. The Solar Impulse HB-SIA prototype plane is essentially a 64-metre long thin wing with four small propellers and narrow pilot pod and tail attached underneath. Sitting in the airport hangar, even with its inner workings exposed, it doesn't look like much more than a big paper glider - not much for 100 million dollars. It is in fact part glider. When the sun is shinning the Solar Impulse will slowly climb to an altitude of 8,000 or 9,000 metres. When the sun sets, it begins a powered glide, using energy from the 23 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks batteries as it slowly falls to 1,500 metres. And when the sun rises again it brings new energy to recharge the aircraft for it to climb back into the sky. "The key is energy efficiency, extracting maximal power from minimal energy and using as little of it as possible," Borschberg explained. It can only stay aloft because it is so lightweight. The best sailplanes have a weight-to-surface area of 40 kg per square metre while the Solar Impulse is eight kg per square metre, he said "With the existing technology, this is the best that can be done," he said. Weight was the biggest challenge to overcome. The answer was a very basic structure made of extremely light carbon fibre. It has taken Borschberg, an accomplished pilot, and partner Bertrand Piccard, a well-known Swiss adventurer, six years to get this far. While the prototype has a wingspan identical in length to an Airbus A340, a large commercial passenger airplane that weighs in at 260 tonnes without cargo, this one-man plane is just 1,500 kilograms - about the weight of a small car. The idea came to Piccard while he was completing the first around-the-world balloon flight in 1999. He resolved to try again but without fuel or polluting emissions. The grand exploits of the 21st century will be about preserving or improving "the quality of life on our planet," he said in a statement. The Solar Impulse plane is being built near Zurich There has been no breakthrough in solar or battery technology here. The solar cells are actually a thin film glued to the top of the wing. Rated at 22 percent efficiency, they are not the most effective available - but produce the most energy for their weight. A major part of that weight is the 400 kg of lithium-ion batteries, which are similar to those in mobile phones but twice as efficient, Borschberg said. The four electric propellers generate less than 10 horsepower in total, similar to a small motor scooter. The airplane will take off and land under its own power and fly at a relatively leisurely speed of 70 km/hour, far too slow for almost anything else to fly - except birds. 24 More than 70 people are now working on the project, including 50 engineers, physicists, materials specialists and computer scientists. The next big hurdle is the first test flight in the next couple months, when they will find out how such a large but extremely lightweight aircraft handles. Next year Borschberg hopes the Solar Impulse will become the first solar airplane to fly day and night, for 36 hours non-stop, without fuel. If all goes well then, the final version of the aircraft will be built to circumnavigate the planet in 2012, with five giant hops of 5,000 km over five days of nonstop flying. Borschberg and Piccard will take turns piloting the flight legs. "That is the other big challenge: how to pilot, eat and sleep for five days and nights," said Borschberg. Sleep deprivation, even for just 24 hours, impairs anyone's abilities and perception. However, the Solar Impulse project has conducted intensive research into the matter and found that 20-minute catnaps, spaced out properly, can forestall those effects. Eschewing an alarm clock, they have developed a special shirt with sensors and a vibrating system that can be remotely activated to make sure the pilot only sleeps in increments of 20 minutes. Even if they are successful, Borschberg does not expect solar-powered commercial air travel in the future. "Solar could be a complementary energy source, but without some major breakthrough I don't see it," he said. The International Air Transport Association, which represents virtually all 230 commercial airlines, has a goal of carbon emission free flight by 2050, he said. "That's a very ambitious target." (*This story was originally published by Latin American newspapers that are part of the Tierramérica network. Tierramérica is a specialised news service produced by IPS with the backing of the United Nations Development Programme, United Nations Environment Programme and the World Bank.) http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idne ws=48457 Mali: technology transfer so slow "we’ll have to copy like China" By Isolda Agazzi, IPS BAMAKO, Sep 15 - Cars and motorcycles are stuck because of the heavy rains that have drenched Mali‘s capital for the past few days. It is late afternoon and the water, mud and damaged fruit from nearby stalls make the journey for those heading home to celebrate Ramadan even more treacherous. These sudden floods are a direct consequence of climate change that is causing extreme changes of weather with shorter and more abrupt rainy seasons alternating with drought and desertification. "Since the beginning of the 1970s, Mali On Assignment #10, September 2009 has experienced a 20 percent decrease in rainfall and a 50 percent decrease in the rate of flow of the largest rivers," describes Sidi Konate. He is an engineer who works at the technical permanent secretariat (TPS) of the ministry of environment, which is in charge of implementing the United Nations‘ Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Kyoto Protocol forms part of this convention. Konate was participating in a panel organised this past weekend by the Media 21 Global Journalism Network in Bamako. The network is a Geneva-based initiative that a team of journalists launched to improve the media coverage of key issues such as climate change. In order to help developing countries adapt to a phenomenon they have not contributed to but which they suffer the consequences of, the Kyoto Protocol foresees a transfer by Northern countries of environmentally friendly technologies to help poor countries develop and industrialise but still pollute less. "But up to now we have not received anything!" exclaims Konate. "Technology is not something you can transfer -mainly because of intellectual property rights. You have to copy it, like the Chinese! The convention has not found any satisfying mechanism and the Copenhagen conference will not find it either." The UN‘s climate change conference in Copenhagen in December this year will follow up on the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, which ends in 2012. The protocol commits developed countries to reduce their greenhouse emissions between 2008 and 2012 to five percent below that of 1990 levels. Experts and non-governmental organisations are calling on them to commit to at least a 20 percent reduction but industrialised countries also want emerging economies -- like China and India that are major polluters -- to make binding commitments. The latter are reluctant because of the implications for growth. Mali, which is in West Africa, is "a hot and dry country," continues Mamadou Gakou, director of the TPS. "We have sun and wind and therefore need the technologies to transform them into solar energy and wind power. And we also need technologies for irrigation." The problem is, argues the Genevabased Agency for Trade Information and Cooperation (AITIC ), that "in the normal course of events governments themselves cannot secure technology transfer. Transfer occurs when private concerns have an interest or an incentive. "Naturally, the transfer can not only occur with the construction or importation of climate-friendly goods and facilities, but also through the exchange of knowhow and project-management experience in the direction of developing countries", continues AITIC, which is an intergovernmental organisation that assists poor countries with capacitybuilding to spur "trade-led growth". Some interesting environmentally friendly technologies already exist in Mali but these are not the result of technology transfer. The government has often had to make full payment for them. The "cloud-seeding program" is one such project. It is managed with the help of the U.S.-based Weather Modification Corporation. "During the rainy season, when we see a promising cloud, we send a plane to inject salt to cause condensation," explains Daouda Zan Diarra, an engineer at Meteo Mali. "Half an hour later, it rains precisely where we want it to. If it has not rained for 10 days in a region, then we send the plane." The project - which is also being carried out in Senegal and Burkina Faso - has been entirely funded by the Malian government. It spent 13 million dollars to buy two planes and radar equipment from the Weather Modification Company that runs the operations in cooperation with the Malian Air force. The engineer adds that rainfall has increased by 15 percent on average and the production mEDIa21 of millet, rice, sorghum and peanuts by 50 percent. Meteo Mali runs two different weather forecasts on Malian television: one for natural rainfall and one for seeded rainfall. Near Bamako, Coca-Cola has built -- in partnership with the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) -- the only water treatment plant in the country. It treats the wastewater of the Bramali factory – a producer of beer and soft drinks under Coca-Cola licence, among others. The process is entirely organic – bacteria consume the waste – and the water is sent back into the Niger River. The project‘s cost has been 2,2 million dollars so far. But elsewhere there is no water treatment, not even for Bamako‘s sewer which flows directly into the Niger River. With private companies seemingly disinterested, the Malian government is building a water treatment plant in the new industrial section of the city. Germany has been Mali‘s most important partner in the field of environment. "Up to a short while ago, donors were not very aware of climate change," argues Michaëla Braum of GTZ, the German technical cooperation agency. "We have helped African countries in their fight against desertification but today we are trying to pursue climate change concerns across all our projects. The process is still new but the Copenhagen conference can give it new impetus." Gakou points out that, "one of the biggest problems is how to mobilise funds that are already there". The Global Environment Fund contains million of dollars that have not been mobilised yet". For example, one of the most important private equity initiatives investing in the environment is the Global Environment Fund. The road to Copenhagen is still steep. The UN‘s Bali Action Plan, adopted in 2007 to chart a course for new talks on climate change, calls for "enhanced action" on technology transfer, including 25 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks financing and cooperation on research and development. It still needs to be seen whether Copenhagen will kickstart this "enhanced action". Version in French: http://www.ipsinternational.org/fr/_note .asp?idnews=5488 Version in English: http://www.ipsnews.net/africa/nota.asp ?idnews=48446 Climate change: survival means anticipating and adapting By Stephen Leahy, IPS journalist based in Canada GENEVA, Sep 8 (IPS) - Imagine being able to know months in advance when and where floods or droughts may occur. That is what over 150 countries participating in the third World Climate Conference, which concluded last Friday in Geneva, pledged to achieve through the creation of a Global Framework for Climate Services. "Today is a landmark day for making climate services available to all people," said Michel Jarraud, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), convener of the conference, told over 2,000 climate scientists, sectoral experts and decision-makers. "Climate services" is the long-distance cousin to weather services or weather forecasting. New technology and better climate science has opened the window to very long range forecasting of climate events like droughts weeks and months in advance. This year, scientists were able to anticipate unprecedented flooding of the Red River Valley in the United States Midwest months in advance, enabling local communities to prepare and avoid the worst consequences, said Jane Lubchenko, a noted ecologist, administrator of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and head of the U.S. delegation. "Imagine farmers able to determine 26 what to plant and where, based on drought forecasts three to five years in the future, or coastal communities able to plan for sea level rise and storm intensity," Lubchenco told IPS. The proposed Global Framework for Climate Services will "strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services". It will include a Global Climate Observing System, a World Climate Research Programme and climate services information systems and interface. This is largely about capacity-building in developing countries and delivering information in a usable form for decisionmakers at all levels, from officials to farmers. A task force will conduct 12 months of consultations and determine how to implement such an ambitious project. Those recommendations will be reviewed and a plan for implementation adopted at the next WMO congress in 2011. "Improving development and delivery of climate services will be crucial to future food security," said Lubchenco. This is particularly true because climate change is altering the climate system by trapping more heat energy. This means farmers and others can no longer rely on past experience or historical knowledge to anticipate growing conditions for the next or future seasons. "Society will need information tools to adapt as the climate will continue to be variable and to change notwithstanding steps taken to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases," said Jaarud. Implementing the Global Framework goes beyond climate negotiations in Copenhagen this December to reach a new global treaty to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases, he said. Climate change is well underway, so even if emissions were reduced to zero today, "The global community has to address the need for adaptation measures, particularly in the most vulnerable regions of the world," Rajendra Kumar Pachauri, chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and co-winner of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize, told delegates. Once again, Pachauri reminded highlevel decision makers that in order to achieve the 2 degrees Celsius target, global greenhouse gas emissions must peak by 2015 and then sharply decline. And he stressed the huge co-benefits of emission reductions for health, agriculture, employment and energy security. "Climate change could spell widespread economic disaster," said Ban Ki-moon, secretary-general of the United Nations, who spoke at the WCC-3 High-Level Segment after a visit to the polar ice rim north of the Norwegian island of Svalbard. Failure to agree to a new climate treaty in Copenhagen that reflects what science says is needed will mean this generation and future generations will pay a high price, Ban said. Toke Talagi, the premier of the small Pacific island nation of Niue, expressed deep frustration and alarm that world leaders from the major economies are ignoring the plight of small island states. "We are in a time of crisis," Talagi told delegates. "Climate services and funding for adaption may come too late for our sinking islands" threatened by sea level rise and stronger storms, he said. Niue and the Alliance of Small Island States want the developed world to commit and act to cut emissions by 40 percent by 2020. The closest to this target is European Union's commitment to 20 percent reductions. Instead the major economies are "ignoring the science and trying to make Mother Earth give a little more," Talagi said. "We must make the right decisions in Copenhagen. Climate change tran- On Assignment #10, September 2009 scends boundaries and respects no one." http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idne ws=48366 Global grid enables nations adapt to climate change By Jayashree NANDI, The Times of India Geneva, Sep 8 - Can weather forecasters predict climate change? Do Indian farmers know that droughts are likely to become more common and perhaps they need to change their farming patterns? Were villagers in the Sunderbans informed well in time to react to Typhoon Aila? As the third World Climate Conference organized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) unfolded in Geneva, the focus was on climate services by local meteorological departments. According to WMO, India will be a key country to implement the global framework of climate services. Michel Jerraud, secretary general, WMO, said the organization is creating a global framework of climate services, which will involve meteorological departments of all nations to give comprehensive information of both long-term and immediate events that will help communities adapt to climate change. ―Is El Nino, which has caused drought across the world this year, an impact of climate change? We don‘t know. We need to do more research. Events like the floods in Bangladesh and the heat wave in Europe are also perhaps impacts of climate change. We need to have climate services of international standards in every country and that is why we need a global framework for climate services,‘‘ he said. India perhaps has more reason to implement these services immediately as scientists say the Indian monsoon is going to intensify. ―There will be greater variability and the changes in the Indian monsoon will make drought more com- mon. The southern flanks which are India and neighbouring countries are likely to face a lot of drought and there‘ll obviously be water scarcity with the Himalayan glaciers receding at a higher pace,‖ said Martin Beniston, head, Climate Change and Climate Impacts (Unige). ―About 62% of India‘s agriculture is rain-fed which is obviously going to be affected. The other half of 38% is irrigated. We in India have been using the same system of irrigation for decades. Since the glaciers in Himalayas are melting, the perennial rivers are going to dry. I don‘t know if India has already done a study on the current impacts. There is no time to waste,‘‘ acting director, climate prediction and adaptation, Mannava Sivakumar, told TOI. While weather services in India are nascent, their presence at the conference shows the increasing interest. According to Sivakumar, India has started SMS alerts for farmers though they‘re not very robust yet. India is also developing regional climate models for South Asia. A task force on implementing the global framework on climate services will be appointed on Wednesday that will implement it over a year‘s time. The work will be three-fold. There will global producing centres, mostly big educational and research institutions on climate change, on a regional level, one country will produce climate models and its capacity will be assessed by WMO and then it will nominated. Food for thought Is climate change gender neutral? Studies say no. A United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) study on state of sex-disaggregate data for assessing impact of climate change shows that women are 5.4 times more vulnerable to its impact because a huge number is illiterate, they work in vulnerable areas, they do not get warnings on time, among other reasons. In drought-prone countries such as India, 2% of the women are impacted while it is 8% in Pakistan. mEDIa21 http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/ welcome.asp?skin=pastissues2&QS=Skin% 3Dpastissues2%26Enter%3Dtrue%26Da ily%3Dundefined%26GZ%3DT Taking action on climate change By Tobin Hack, 8 Septembre 2009, Sierra Magazine GENEVA, Sep 8 - The third World Climate Conference (WCC 3) – a weeklong event designed to create a ―global framework for climate services to strengthen production, availability, delivery and application of science-based climate prediction and services‖ – wrapped up in Geneva on Friday. With just three months left to prepare for December‘s critical international climate change negotiations in Copenhagen (COP15), the heat was on for the more than 2,000 climate scientists, experts, and heads of state and government in attendance. What lots of Americans probably would have found pretty terrifying about the WCC 3, had they popped their head in for peek, was that much, if not most, of the conference focused on how we as a global community will deal with the climate changes that are already here or pending. It‘s not just about trying to figure out how to dodge the storm anymore – it‘s time to build metaphorical (and perhaps literal) storm cellars, board up windows, and plot out emergency flood escape routes. Virtually every scientist, expert, and official who spoke at the conference relied heavily on the chilling words ―mitigation‖ and ―adaptation.‖ Flooding, drought, changes in precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and of course, rising temperatures, are all coming our way, and the 27 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks weather information that‘s needed to deal with them simply isn‘t available to many, especially women in developing countries. In brighter news, governments are taking action. Achim Steiner, Executive Director of the United Nations Environment Programme, said with a note of confidence and hope in an informal press conference Thursday that Korea – whose recent economic stimulus package was ―80% green new deal-driven,‖ is recovering from economic crisis at ―a remarkable pace.‖ Steiner went on to praise Obama for his own green new deal strategy for economic recovery. ―Look at President Obama and what is happening there,‖ said Steiner. Those nine little words may not seem like much, but considering the US‘ reputation on the international climate change policy scene (don‘t forget Bush left the world hanging when he backed out of the Kyoto Protocol in 2001), they mean quite a lot coming from the head of UNEP. If Obama‘s red, white and greener attitude is beginning to cast the States in an ever so slightly friendlier light abroad, it‘s also winning him a ferociously dedicated sustainability team at home. In a WCC 3 panel on Tuesday, Shere Abbott, associate director of environment in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, praised Obama for the genuine curiosity she‘s seen him bring to sustainability conversations since he took office. ―The president is totally engaged, both in the whole set of issues related to climate change, energy, and environment, but also because he really truly is an individual who is interested in science,‖ she said. ―Every meeting that we have where there‘s an opportunity for him to learn more, he actually is quite interested in going in more depth than almost any other politician that I‘ve ever been around.‖ It was Obama‘s enthusiastic approach, in part, that drew Abbott from her background in science to her current post in Washington. The other reason she agreed to take the 28 job? Abbott‘s two daughters, both adopted, and to whom she hopes to leave a better world. ―I feel a sense of responsibility for the set of environmental and global issues that they will be facing,‖ she said. Not sure you want to take Shere Abbott‘s word for it? Here‘s proof that Obama is rolling his sleeves up not only on green tech, green jobs, and renewable energy, but also on international climate change policy. Dan Reifsnyder, Deputy Assistant Secretary for the Environment, said Thursday at a US delegation press conference that to the best of his knowledge, President Obama is planning to attend a Climate Change Summit slated for September 22 in New York. Over 100 world leaders are expected to attend the event, which was called by Ban Ki-Moon, UN General Secretary. The summit will mark the end of Moon‘s week-long UN campaign, Seal the Deal, designed to give heads of state a kick in the rear as December‘s Copenhagen negotiations fast approach. Leading the US delegation at WCC 3 was Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). http://sierraclub.typepad.com/greenlife/ 2009/09/the-world-climate-conferenceaddresses-climate-change-.html We used to have four seasons, but the autumn disappeared By Ido LIVEN. 6 September 2009, ynet.co.il online Yoojin from South Korea, only 16 years old but already notices the the change in the weather cycles. Shobhna from Fiji says he country never saw floods like those of January this year. Yara from Kuwait also notices the change - a slight change in the awareness of her country's electricity wasting residents. The phenomena experts at the climate change conference in Geneva depicted, some of the attendants could tell in first person. Link to original article in Hebrew http://www.ynet.co.il/articles/0,7340,L3773253,00.html Climate change: earth's fridge defrosting, with dire results By Stephen LEAHY, 1 September 2009, IPS GENEVA, Sep 2 (IPS) – Winter sea ice terrain of the Beaufort Sea, Alaska. The Arctic Ocean may be ice-free in less than a decade. The rapidly warming Arctic region is destabilising Earth's climate in ways science is just beginning to comprehend. The entire world is being affected, and without urgent action to cut emissions, a too-warm Arctic could trigger catastrophic, irreversible climate change, top scientists say in a report released Wednesday in Geneva. "It is crucial to know the full consequences of the Arctic warming, and this is an unprecedented review of the latest science," said Martin Sommerkorn, an Arctic researcher and senior climate change advisor to World Wildlife Fund International. "Simply put, if we do not keep the Arctic cold enough, people across the world On Assignment #10, September 2009 mEDIa21 will suffer the effects," Sommerkorn told IPS. times the carbon currently in the atmosphere. of the Svalbard archipelago north of Norway. Sea level rise of more than one metre, flooding affecting one quarter of the world's population, and extreme global weather changes are on the way at the current pace of unchecked carbon emissions, the "Arctic Climate Feedbacks: Global Implications" report warns. Levels of atmospheric methane, a particularly potent greenhouse gas, have been increasing for the past two years, and it is suggested that the increase comes from warming permafrost. A big jump in global temperatures would undoubtedly trigger other climate feedbacks, likely pushing global warming onto an entirely new trajectory, he said. A warming Arctic has far wider and more serious consequences than previously believed based on the latest science of the past three years, including the very recent research from International Polar Year 2008-2009. "There is a large potential that a warming Arctic will make climate change far worse," said Sommerkorn, who acted as editor of the report written by 10 of the world's leading climate scientists. The planet's cold polar regions are crucial drivers of Earth's weather and climate. Over the past 40 years, the Arctic has begun to thaw, with warmer temperatures that are rising at twice the rate as anywhere else in the world. Every summer, the frozen Arctic Ocean thaws more and more and may be icefree in less than a decade. So what happens when one of Earth's freezers switches into defrost? Like closing an open window in winter, those closest will notice the biggest difference, but even those much further away will be affected. The report projects changing temperature and precipitation patterns in Europe and North America, affecting agriculture, forestry and water supplies. "Droughts may be worse in California, and the U.S. Southwest. Winters could be wetter in the Mediterranean but drier in Scandinavia based on a continued warming of the Arctic," said Sommerkorn, who is based in Oslo, Norway. More alarming is the likelihood that a warmer Arctic will emit large volumes of carbon and methane that are currently stored in the frozen soils called permafrost and that contain as much as three The report shows that the top two to three metres of permafrost across the entire Arctic region will very likely thaw by the year 2100. The amount of carbon and methane that could be released is unknown but will be more than enough to push temperatures far higher than any previous estimates. "We are already observing permafrost melting in many parts of the Arctic," he said. Worse still is the potential release of some of the enormous deposits of methane hydrates - frozen natural gas under the Arctic Ocean. In very cold or high-pressure environments, individual methane molecules get trapped in icelike cages of frozen water. When the seas warm, the ice cages fizzle and decompose, releasing the trapped methane. Put a match to the decomposing ice and voilà: Ice that literally burns.Methane is already bubbling to the surface along the East Siberian coastal shelf, according to recent measurements. This very shallow water of less than 50 metres may be warming and releasing some of the frozen methane, although this has not been confirmed. "What we do know is that globally methane levels have been rising in the last two or three years," said Sommerkorn. However, the temperatures in East Siberia right now are very close to what will cause the hydrates to thaw. "Less than half a percent of what's there could trigger abrupt temperature change," he warned. Last month, other researchers discovered 250 plumes of methane gas bubbling up from the sea floor to the west "What this report makes evidently clear is that what happens in the Arctic affects the rest of the world," said report coauthor Mark Serreze, senior research scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Centre in the U.S. state of Colorado. "The changes we are seeing are not entirely unexpected, they are just happening far sooner," Serreze told IPS. If the methane hydrates start to melt or large areas of permafrost "that will be very bad news for humanity", he said. "The world is a very small place and we have not been good stewards. Climate change is symptom of this poor stewardship," he said. "The way we're going right now, I'm not optimistic that we will avoid some kind of tipping point." This report signals the urgency for action, Sommerkorn says. And the action required is a global carbon emission peak between 2013- 2017 to keep global warming below 2 degrees and avoid dangerous climate change. That means developed countries must reduce emissions by at least 40 percent by 2020 compared their 1990 emissions and the developing world must reduce emissions by 30 percent from current levels. "The scale of the reductions needed is an enormous challenge," he acknowledged. However, leaders should not hesitate because greening of society is also the way to solve the economic crisis and the path to a sustainable future, experts agree. The Copenhagen climate treaty to be negotiated this December must parallel the urgency of the science in this report. http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idne ws=48296 29 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks Climate change: early warning systems for the coming storm By Stephen Leahy, 31 August 2009, journalist based in Canada IPS GENEVA, Aug 31 (IPS) – Climate change is here. The challenge in Geneva this week is to find ways to help the world cope with a climate that will have more and worse extremes in terms of temperatures, floods, and storms. More than 2,500 experts and policymakers from 150 countries are attending the Aug. 31-Sep. 4 World Climate Conference to discuss how to improve weather forecasting and long-range seasonal weather projections, especially to help poor nations in areas such as agriculture. ―Until now, the way that we deliver climate information to some sectors has been ad hoc. What we need is a formal system that all people can trust to access vital information that can save their lives and protect property and economies,‖ said Michel Jarraud, secretary- general of the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), which is convening the World Climate Conference this week in Geneva. The WMO has proposed that a global climate services system be created to boost observations and research for monitoring the climate and new information tools that will provide sectorand regional-specific products and services, Jarraud told IPS. The first two ―World Climate Conferences‖ in 1979 and 1990 were organised by the WMO and played the key roles in the creation of the U.N. climate secretariat, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. This ―Global Framework‖ system could help reduce losses caused by extreme weather and climate events such as heat waves, sandstorms, cyclones, drought and floods which will become more frequent and more intense as the climate continues to warm, he said. 30 ―Extreme weather events and changing climatic conditions affect all of us, frequently resulting in humanitarian disasters and heavy losses,‖ said Swiss President Hans-Rudolf Merz. Better precipitation forecasts, hazard maps and early warning systems are crucial to reduce impacts and assist ―decision-makers in their respective sectors like food security, water management, health care and tourism‖, he told delegates at the conference opening. While people in developed countries take weather forecasting for granted, many regions do not have even basic three-day forecasts. ―All of Africa has fewer working weather stations than tiny Switzerland,‖ said Walter Fust of the Global Humanitarian Forum, a Geneva-based NGO focused on collaborations to overcome key humanitarian challenges. With more than 70 percent of Africans working in agriculture, access to good weather information is the most important way to help Africa cope with climate change, Fust told IPS. ―The climate has changed, the local people can no longer rely on their traditional knowledge,‖ he stressed. hopeful the money will be found to complete the network quickly. ―We often forget the significant human consequences of climate change,‖ he said. Kofi Annan, president of the Forum, told delegates that it is crucial to recognise that ―weather ignores national borders and we need to work together to understand its complexities and challenges‖. Coping or adapting to climate change requires high-quality early warning systems because by 2020, up to 250 million people in Africa will face growing shortages of water due to climate change, Gro Harlem Brundtland, special envoy of the U.N. secretary-general on climate change, told the conference. The challenge is to communicate information about what to expect in a more efficient manner to decision makers at all levels, Brundtland said. In reference to the ―other climate conference‖ later this year in Copenhagen, where the world community hopes to forge an agreement to reduce the carbon dioxide emissions that are driving climate change, Brundtland warned that politics was pushing science aside. ―Political leaders must be guided by the best available scientific knowledge,‖ she stressed. To overcome this, the Forum has created a Weather Info for All privatepublic partnership that uses the existing mobile telephone network as weather stations and to SMS the information to farmers. ―Africa has at least 60 percent mobile coverage,‖ Fust said. ―We must mobilise political will at the highest level to act on what the science is telling us,‖ she concluded. And ―the science demands that we act boldly‖. Launched in June, they plan to install 5,000 automatic weather stations at cell phone tower sites across Africa. The first 19 stations have been deployed in the Lake Victoria region where 5,000 people die every year due to storms and accidents. Execs say only green businesses will thrive post-COP15, challenges remain ―It will only cost 30 million dollars to cover all of Africa,‖ he said. Mobile companies Ericsson and Zain, along with Google, are participants and Fust is Companies that prepare for a carbonconstrained world will be the clear winners in the coming decades, said business executives attending the World http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idne ws=48278 By Sarah Pickering and Justin Gerdes, 31 August 2009, Copenhagen Climate Council On Assignment #10, September 2009 Climate Conference-3, in Geneva. But even for the early adopters, the path is not an easy one. Only businesses enlightened enough to see the clear advantages of helping to structure a framework for green growth will flourish post-COP15, concluded business executives at the World Climate Conference-3 , in Geneva. At a side event convened by the Copenhagen Climate Council and U.N. Global Compact , Dr. David N. Bresch, Director, Sustainability and Emerging Risk Management, Swiss Reinsurance (Swiss Re), and Lars Dyrhagen, Senior Director, Corporate Public and Industry Affairs, Danfoss A/S, advocated the importance of The Copenhagen Call – six key recommendations for a new global climate treaty from the 800 business leaders who convened in Copenhagen for the World Business Summit on Climate Change in May 2009. Both acknowledged the Call could have been stronger had it managed to draw support from so-called "sinner companies" – though it was still a manifesto equaling the position of the national governments of many of the members of the audience, noted Dyrhagen – and from the companies that weren't present at the Summit, the small- and medium-sized firms that comprise 97% of global businesses. That said, Bresch stated that the sheer number of companies assembled in Copenhagen to help shape the Call was a demonstration of "concerted action from many players." One challenge confronting even those companies seen to be sustainability leaders is how to referee internal (and external) debates over what constitutes a responsible climate change strategy. Dyrhagen said that Danfoss headquarters is sometimes accused by affiliates of being "too green." "One of the big dilemmas I have to cope with is that we can have totally different opinions. So we may be extremely green at headquarters, but I can recognize that our affiliates in the U.S. can lose big customers if we are seen as way too green." Another challenge cited was reconciling the financial benefits of globalization – such as reduced labor and manufacturing costs – with ambitious greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction goals. What results is a strategic schizophrenia for businesses as materials are shipped between and across continents, swelling companies' carbon footprints and straining efforts to slow the growth of, or reduce absolutely, GHG emissions. "Until very recently, we had a tradition: wherever we sold locally, we also produced locally," said Dyrhagen. "What happened over the last five years? Well, we wanted to take advantage of globalization. That's a dilemma from a strategy perspective. Right now we need to find the right balance in work between monitoring our climate strategy and our ultimate goal of greenhouse gas reduction." For Danfoss, that goal is to offset 130,000 tons of CO2 equivalent in 2025 compared to 170,000 tons of CO2e offset today – a 20% reduction, even though the company expects to be much bigger by that year. Danfoss is a manufacturer. In producing compressors and heat exchangers and other mechan- mEDIa21 ical goods it consumes large amounts of fuel and electricity. Its path to cut emissions is the one more easily fixed in the public's mind – emissions can be traced back to factories and smokestacks. But even for service companies like Swiss Re the path to cut emissions involves some tough choices. "It's relatively easy for us. We're a service company; we don't pollute a lot," said Bresch. Nevertheless Swiss Re is looking at reducing travel, making greater use of teleconferencing, and in some areas no longer provides company cars. "It's about recognition about how we operate." That recognition encompasses the private carbon footprint of its work force. Swiss Re offers employees subsidies for solar panels, home energy retrofits, and public transit. Both executives saw hope in the growing recognition that it is counterproductive to compartmentalize what might be called the "public" or "private" interest. In a world threatened by climate change, with people and companies equally at risk, they are one and the same. "What is happening with more and more industries is the following: the private interests of the company are public interests. What is also happening is the other process, the reverse process; the public interest is also the private interest. And we can use this as a good source of innovation," said Dyrhagen. http://www.copenhagenclimatecouncil.c om/get-informed/news/execs-say-onlygreen-businesses-will-thrive-post-cop15challenges-remain.html 31 Media21 On Climate: Anticipating Climate Risks Partners Cadbury Green Cross International Solar Impulse Sunwatt Bio Energie Hewlett Packard Canton de Genève Centre Écologique Albert Schweitzer Centre Suisse d'Electronique et de Microtechnique European Foundation for the Sustainable Development of the Regions Flexcell La Via Campesina (International farmer movement) UN-International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Ministère de l'Environnement et de l'Assainissement du Mali United Nations Development Program Monsanto Noé21 United Nations Environment Programme Veolia Environnement Population and Sustainability Network Global Humanitarian Forum 32 WWF International