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Globaler PV-Zubau : Stand, Ursachen
und Perspektiven
Neue Entwicklungen
auf den Energiemärkten
Prof. Dr. G. Erdmann
TU Berlin, FG Energiesysteme
Dipl.-Ing. Andreas Grübel
KoM-Solution
Dipl.-Ing. Johannes Henkel
TU Berlin, FG Energiesysteme
07/10/11
Neue Entwicklungen auf den Energiemärkten - SoSe 2011 - Vincent Thevenin
1
Contents
1. Solar energy potential
2. Stand of the PV installation
3. Reasons of PV growth
4. Perspectives
5. Summary
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2
Contents
1. Solar energy potential
4. Perspectives
5. Summary
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3
Solar energy potential
Yearly sum of global irradiance
Source : www.meteonorm.com , uncertainty 7 %, Period :1986-2005
Average energy received per year (kWh/m2):
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Europe :1,200
Middle East : 1,800 to 2,300
4
What PV-area would be needed to supply the world electricity consumption ?
Global electricity consumption in 2008 (IEA) : 18 603 TWhel
Average needed PV-area to obtain 1 kWp : 7 m²
Location
Yearly sum of produced electricity
kWhel/kWp
Area (km²)
Sahara
1650*
78 922
Southern Europa
1250*
104 177
Germany
900*
144 690
* Source : PV GIS : module c-SI optimally oriented, 14 % Loss i.e. 0,75 ratio performance
Area of Germany : 350 000 km²
=> Location of a PV system is very important
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Contents
1.
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-
Capacity
Location
Applications
Technologies
3.
Reasons of PV growth
4.
Perspectives
5.
Summary
6
Evolution of global installed PV
MW
How many MW of PV-modules are now already installed in the world ?
39 529
16 629
I = Installed during the year
C = Cumulative
Source : EPIA Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2015 (2011)
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7
TOP 10 PV-Markets in the world
Rank
Country
Market 2010 (MW)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Germany
Spain
Japan
Italy
USA
Czech Republic
France
China
Belgium
South Korea
Rest of world
7 408 (44,5 %)
369 (2,2%)
990 (6%)
2 321 (14%)
878 (5,3%)
1 490 (9%)
719 (4,3%)
520 (3,1%)
424 (2,5%)
131 (0,8%)
1 379 (8,3%)
Cumulative 2010
(MW)
17 193 (43,5%)
3 784 (9,6%)
3 622 (9,2%)
3 494 (8,8%)
2 528 (6,4%)
1 953 (4,9%)
1 025 (2,6%)
893 (2,3%)
803 (2%)
655 (1,7%)
3 399 (8,6%)
A handful of countries with strong policy regimes account for 87% of global installed
PV capacity; new countries have emerged as important players in the last few years.
Source : Eurobserv’ER (2011) , EPIA Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2015 (2011)
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Types of applications
On grid ( 95 % of market)
Off grid (5% of market)
• electrification of rural area
• residential
< 10 kWp
Building integrated / Roof top
Typical turn-key system price
2008: 720* USD/kWp
• industrial applications
• commercial/insdustrial
10 kWp to 1 MWp
Building integrated / Roof top
2008: 600* USD/kWp
• utility
> 1MWp
Ground mounted / Roof top
• consumer goods
2008: 480* USD/kWp
* For 1000 kWh/kWp
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Source : IEA PV Roadmap (2010)
9
EU Market segmentation
Source : EPIA Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2015 (2011)
Measures, costs and solar irradiation are responsible for
this segmentation :
ex: FiT in France (58 €cts/kWh) for < 3 kWp systems
=> Share of PV residential high
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PV Technologies
Source : IEA PV Roadmap (2010)
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Contents
1.
2.
Stand of the PV installation
- EU policies
- Measures of market support
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4.
Perspectives
5.
Summary
12
Reasons of PV-growth
Timetable of main EU renewable electricity policies
Nov. 1997
EU Commission publishes White Paper setting out a strategy for renewable
energy. Goal by 2010 : penetration of 12% of renewable energy sources for EU
Sept. 2001
EU adopts Directive on the Promotion of Electricity from Renewable Energy
Sources
March
2007
EU summit endorses a binding target to source 20% of energy from renewable
sources by 2020
30 June
2009
EU issues template for National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs)
(EurActiv 01/07/09)
30 June
2010
Deadline for EU states to present National Renewable Energy Action Plans
2020
Target date for EU objective of sourcing 20% of energy from renewable sources
Source : EU’s Policies for Developing and Deploying Six Green Energy Technologies, Georg Erdmann, TU Berlin
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National Renewable Energy Action Plans
Targets for renewable shares in final energy consumption
AT
BE
BG
CY
CZ
DE
DK
EE
DL
ES
FI
FR
HU
IE
IT
LU
LT
LV
MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SE
SK
Sl
UK
Source : ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/index_en.htm
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Public R&D expenses
Correlation between R&D public expenses and palmares of countries
Note: Values in million USD, not corrected for inflation, based on yearly exchange rates.
Source: IEA PV ROADMAP PV_2010
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Measures of market stimulation
Feed-in Tariff
Target
Investors looking for incomes:
Developers, construction
companies, private persons
Subventions
Investors with limited
capital:
Householdes, little
organisations
Produced electricity bought by Public administrations
Implementation an electricty company which is
subsidize PV
compensated by the state
installations
Characteristics
Country which
adopted this
kind of measure
Green certificates
Electricty supplier
Minimal share of
green electricty
Efficiency depends on the level Tax or VAT reductions Most competitives RE
of fixed Feed-in Tariff
Investement subsidies
are promoted
Germany
Spain
France
Finland
Japan
United Kingdom
Belgium
USA
United Kingdom
Source: Eurostaf, Les perspectives de développement du photovoltaïque dans le monde, 2007
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Feed-in Tariffs (sept. 2011)
Years
€/kWh
Small or Non-Differentiated
Switzterland
25
0,590
Ontario MicroFIT
20
0,578
Great Britain
20
0,425
FITs are responsible for approximately 75%
France
20
0,406
of global PV (Deutsche Bank 2010).
Luxembourg
15
0,382
Italy
20
0,361
Differences between coutries :
Israel
20
0,334
• Structure (BIPB France)
Czech Republic
20
0,304
• Size
Germany
20
0,287
• Years of contract
Rhode Island
15
0,247
• Regression
Vermont
25
0,222
Large
PV Boom occures when production
Switzterland
25
0,353
costs decrease faster than FiTs
Ontario
20
0,319
Israel
20
0,298
Italy
20
0,264
Germany
20
0,221
Source : Charpin Report, IGF, 2010
http://wind-works.org/FeedLaws/
France <12 MW
20
0,120
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Contents
1.
2.
Stand of the PV installation
3.
Reasons of PV growth
4. Perspectives
- Support
- Costs evolution
- Grid parity
- International cooperation
5.
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Summary
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Maturity curve of PV-Electricty
capacity
Ex : UK
Ex : France,
Germany
Ex : California
Phase 1
Initiation
Phase 1
Maturation
Phase 1
Deployment
Creation of
demand
FiT or measures
needed
Evolution of
demand
FiT becomes risky
This curve is specific for each country :
- Policies
- Industrial backwardness
- Solar irradiation
Market
Functionnement
FiT no longer
necessary
time
Source : Charpin Report, IGF, 2010
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Evolution of prices
Source: Rech/Schock Helmholt-Zentrum Berlin VL PV-II
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Grid parity
When we have :
Cost PV = Price for customers
Costs of PV electricity
Price of electricity for customers
Costs of standard electricity
Market support =>
Source: Rech/Schock Helmholt-Zentrum Berlin Vorlesung PV-II
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Consequences of grid parity
Potential for solar power in the EU-27 in 2020
European population
497 659 000
Total ground floor
area
22 621 km²
Building-integrated
solar potential (roofs
and facades)
12 193 km² or
1 425 TWh/a
Expected electricity
demand
3 525 TWh/a
Potential share of
electricity demand
covered by BIPV
40%
kWh/day
Comparison of the average daily electricity
needs of a 2-3 people household with the
electricity output of a 20 m² PV system
Source : GreenPeace/EPIA Solar Generation 6 (2011) P31
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Perspectives
Source : IEA’s 2009 World Energy Outlook (WEO 2009) analysis
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Influence on the market
Factor of influence
Impact on the PV-market
Public support measures
++
Preservation of FiTs
++
Evolution of the regulatory frame (Green certificates,
limitation of maximal capacity)
+
Reduction of subsidies for private individuals
-
Competitivity of prices
--
Actual capital cost of PV
--
Actual production costs of PV
--
Tendency of prices evolution (R&D, Economy of scale)
+
Implementation of CO2 market
+
New entrants and production capacity
+
International cooperation
++
Source: Eurostaf, Les perspectives de développement du photovoltaïque dans le monde, 2007
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Summary
• The European Union: A driver of PV development in the world
• In every country : a different situation (Politics, FiTs, Solar irradiation)
• Now: a lot of PV-installations in the world PV where there is not so much sun
• Solid frame conditions for firms needed in order to avoid crises (Spain)
• International cooperation needed (FiTSM, policies changes …)
=> PV in the Sunbelt region: Ongoing policy developments (China, India)
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Thank you for your attention!
Any questions?
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Sources
- Charpin Report, IGF, 2010
- Eurostaf, Les perspectives de développement du photovoltaïque dans le monde, 2007
- GreenPeace/EPIA Solar Generation 6, 2011
- JRC PV Status Report, 2010
- IEA PV Roadmap, 2010
- IEA’s 2009 World Energy Outlook (WEO 2009) analysis
- PV GIS : http://re.jrc.ec.europa.eu/pvgis on 06.10.2011
- Baromètre photovoltaïque, Eurobserv’ER , 2011
- EPIA Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics until 2015, 2011
- EU’s Policies for Developing and Deploying Six Green Energy Technologies, Georg
Erdmann, TU Berlin, 2010
-Rech/Schock Helmholt-Zentrum Berlin Vorlesung PV-II
- ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/index_en.htm on 06.10.2011
- www.sonnewindwaerme.de visited on 06.10.2011
- www.meteonorm.com visited on 06.10.2011
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Discussion
• Spanish market’s crisis in autumn 2008 :
Generous tariffs and high-quality solar resource
 rush of development that overwhelmed regulators and prompted a drastic policy
change
-2008 : installation of 2 685 MW (royal decree 1578/2008, implementation of quotas,
500 MW installed PV every year)
-2009 : installation of 17 MW
-2010 : installatoin of 370 MW
-2013 : predicted installation of 300 MW (Source : ASIF)
-2020 : predicted installation of 600 MW (Source : ASIF)
• International cooperation in the renewable energy sector :
- IRENA ( goals : to establish a knowledge base, to encourage north-south and southsouth technology cooperation)
- DESERTEC ( feasability ?, politics)
- FiT Support Mechanism from GreenPeace
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Discussion
Source : DESERTEC Press book
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Discussion
The FiT Support Mechanism (FTSM) : proposal
from Greenpeace International for a renewable
support scheme for the power sector in
developing countries.
FTSM aims to rapidly expand renewable energy in
developing countries with financial support from
industrialised nations.
Source : GreenPeace/EPIA Solar Generation 6 (2011)
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