macroeconomic outlook

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Better signs for Brazilian economic
policy should come at a price in the
short term but bring benefits in the
longer term
Economic Research Department - DEPEC
The normalization of U.S. monetary policy will begin in
2015 (probably in the second half), in a process that will be
gradual and properly signaled to markets. The magnitude
of the interest-rate adjustment by the Federal Reserve is
an open question, especially because of the imminentlydeflationary environment in Europe, the increase in
monetary stimuli in Japan and falling oil prices.
However, signals point to acceleration in U.S. growth, a
stronger dollar and a moderate advance in long-term U.S.
Treasury yields.
Hence, emerging-market currencies tend to weaken, and
even more so because of lower expected growth in China
and the widespread drop in commodity prices.
27/01/11
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27/08/14
27/09/14
27/10/14
27/11/14
27/12/14
TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO 2006- 2013. Fonte:
US TREASURIES
– 10 YEARS 2011- 2014
Bloomberg
4,20
Em %
3,549
3,70
3,20
1,70
3
2,864
3,170
2,994
2,70
2,219
2,269
1,20
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
2,484
2,20
2,165
1,938
1,615
3,028
2,739
2,788
2,502
2,576
2,611
2,261
1,668
2,048
1,663
1,508
crescimento anual doRATE
PIB (variaçãoOF
interanual).
CHINESE GDPChina:
– ANNUAL
CHANGE
Fonte: Bloomberg
Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco
1997 - 2016
16.0
14.2
14.0
12.7
12.0
11.3
10.4
10.1
10.0
9.3
8.4
7.8
8.0
9.6
9.1
9.3
9.2
8.3
7.7
7.6
7.7
7.3
6.5
6.2
6.0
4.0
2.0
44
SOURCE: CEIC
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0.0
At the same time as we acknowledge the
various challenges present in the short-term,
we believe the signs that the economic
policy will favor a rebalancing of the public
accounts and reducing inflation will be
essential for the long-term outlook and the
resumption of growth for the Brazilian
economy.
We cannot expect any great
expansion in GDP growth in this
phase of transition and
adjustments and are projecting
growth of 0.2% and 0.5% for 2014
and 2015, respectively.
Fonte: IBGE e IPEA
BRAZILIAN
GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
Elaboração
e Projeção: Bradesco
2000 - 2015
CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % - 1984 - 2014
9.0
7.8
Média 2004-2013:
3,8%
7.5
Média 1984-2003:
2,7%
7.0
5.4
4.7
5.0
3.5
6.1
5.7
5.3
7.5
5.2
4.4
4.0
4.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
2.7
3.0
2.7
2.5
2.1
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.0
0.0 0.3
-0.1
-1.0
0.2
0.5
-0.3
-0.5
-3.0
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2015*
2014*
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
7
1990
-4.3
-5.0
TAXA DE DESEMPREGO
Fonte: IBGE
BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – SIX MAJOR
METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE (2005 – 2015)
10,5
9,9
10,0
9,3
9,5
8,5
7,9
8,1
7,5
6,7
6,5
6,0
5,7
5,5
5,5
5,4
4,9
8
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
4,5
BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB – ‘000 INDIVIDUAL
JOBS
CAGED - GERAÇÃO DE VAGAS, EM MILHARES
2137
2000
1617
1523
1566
1452
1500
1254
1229
995
1000
868
750
731
500
400
260
9
SOURCE: CAGED
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
0
BRAZILIAN REAL
WAGESMÉDIO
– ANNUAL
RATE OF
CHANGE
RENDIMENTO
REAL - CRESCIMENTO
ANUAL
Fonte: IBGE
Elaboração: Bradesco
5.0%
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
3.8%
3.2%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.7%
1.8%
2.0%
2.0%
1.5%
1.5%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-1.3%
-2.0%
2004
10
2005
2006
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
jan/10
fev/10
mar/10
abr/10
mai/10
jun/10
jul/10
ago/10
set/10
out/10
nov/10
dez/10
jan/11
fev/11
mar/11
abr/11
mai/11
jun/11
jul/11
ago/11
set/11
out/11
nov/11
dez/11
jan/12
fev/12
mar/12
abr/12
mai/12
jun/12
jul/12
ago/12
set/12
out/12
nov/12
dez/12
jan/13
fev/13
mar/13
abr/13
mai/13
jun/13
jul/13
ago/13
set/13
out/13
nov/13
dez/13
jan/14
fev/14
mar/14
abr/14
mai/14
jun/14
jul/14
ago/14
set/14
out/14
nov/14
dez/14
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL WAGES ADJUSTMENTS – BRADESCO
SURVEY
– ANNUAL
PERCENT
CHANGE
Pesquisa
Proprietária
REAJUSTES
SALARIAIS NOMINAIS
– PESQUISA PROPRIETÁRIA – TODOS OS
SETORES AGREGADOS
10,0
11
9,7 9,7
9,1
9,3 9,3
8,9
8,5
8,0
7,6
7,4
7,2
6,2
7,4
7,1
7,1
SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO
8,4
8,1
8,3
8,0
7,8
8,1
9,2
8,7
8,5
8,2
8,6
8,1 8,1
8,3
8,1 8,1
8,1
8,2
7,7
7,5
7,7 7,6 7,7 7,7
7,2
6,6
6,8
6,1
6,0
4,0
12
SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO
Brazil
90%
Singapore
Slovakia
Australia
70%
Estonia
New Zealand
60%
Philippines
Japan
50%
Czech Republic
Israel
Norway
Switzerland
Sweden
Poland
40%
Hungary
Canada
25.5%
Denmark
Ireland
22.8%
Austria
Spain
21.1%
Belgium
30%
Portugal
Finland
19.3%
Italy
Korea, Republic of
17.4%
France
Taiwan
16.3%
United States
Greece
0%
Germany
20%
Netherlands
10%
Mexico
United Kingdom
PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN
MANUFACTURING, US$,crescimento
2006-2012
acumulado
100%
87.2%
80%
57.3%
63.4%
42.1%
47.1%
36.3%
33.5%
28.1%
8.3%
0.0%
13
SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO
75,7
nov/14
80
set/14
jul/14
mai/14
87,3
mar/14
90
jan/14
84,2
82,2
nov/13
set/13
jul/13
80,6
mai/13
82,8
mar/13
jan/13
nov/12
84,2
set/12
jul/12
mai/12
mar/12
84,7
jan/12
nov/11
set/11
jul/11
83,2
mai/11
mar/11
84,7
jan/11
nov/10
set/10
jul/10
mai/10
mar/10
jan/10
nov/09
set/09
jul/09
85
mai/09
mar/09
100
jan/09
nov/08
BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS – QUANTUM, INDEX
NUMBER – 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE
2006 = 100
110
105
98,1
95
87,3
85,5
83,0
79,9
77,3
75
70
65
60
BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF
CHANGE)
Fonte: IBGE
PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL
11,0%
10,2%
8,3%
7,0%
3,0%
5,9%
2,8%
2,7%
3,1%
2,7%
2,1%
0,4%
0,3%
0,2%
-1,0%
-2,3%
-2,5%
-5,0%
-7,1%
14
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-9,0%
PROJEÇÕES PMC AMPLIADA
BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES – INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING
MATERIALS (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE)
15,0%
13,5%
12,0%
12,0%
10,8%
9,8%
9,0%
7,9%
7,0%
6,5%
6,8%
6,0%
3,6%
3,4%
3,0%
2,0%
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2015
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
15
2014
0,0%
0,0%
2014
RETAIL SALES (ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE) - 2014
Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic, perfume and cosmetic articles
9,0%
Fuels and lubricants
3,5%
Office, IT and communications equipment and materials
3,3%
Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food prod, drinks and tobacco
2,2%
Furniture and Electrodomestic appliances
1,8%
Restricted Monthly Retail Survey (PMC)
0,0%
Textiles, clothing and footwear
0,0%
Building material
-0,2%
Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery
-2,4%
Amplified PMC
Vehicles, motorcycles, autoparts and pieces
-4,7%
-7,8%
-10,0% -8,0% -6,0% -4,0% -2,0% 0,0%
16
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2,0%
4,0%
6,0%
8,0% 10,0%
RETAIL Variação
SALESdas
(ANNUAL
RATE
OF CHANGE)
- 2015
vendas setoriais
no comércio
varejista - 2015
Fonte: IBGE
Elaboração: Bradesco
Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic,
perfume and cosmetic articles
6,1%
Fuels and lubricants
3,5%
Hypermarkets, supermarkets, food prod,
drinks and tobacco
2,6%
Office, IT and communications equipment
and materials
2,5%
Books, newspapers, magazines and
stationery
2,3%
Restricted Monthly Retail Survey (PMC)
2,0%
Amplified PMC
1,6%
Textiles, clothing and footwear
1,5%
Furniture and Electrodomestic appliances
1,4%
Vehicles, motorcycles, autoparts and pieces
0,9%
Building material
0,0%
17
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
0,8%
1,0%
2,0%
3,0%
4,0%
5,0%
6,0%
7,0%
nov/04
jan/05
mar/05
mai/05
jul/05
set/05
nov/05
jan/06
mar/06
mai/06
jul/06
set/06
nov/06
jan/07
mar/07
mai/07
jul/07
set/07
nov/07
jan/08
mar/08
mai/08
jul/08
set/08
nov/08
jan/09
mar/09
mai/09
jul/09
set/09
nov/09
jan/10
mar/10
mai/10
jul/10
set/10
nov/10
jan/11
mar/11
mai/11
jul/11
set/11
nov/11
jan/12
mar/12
mai/12
jul/12
set/12
nov/12
jan/13
mar/13
mai/13
jul/13
set/13
nov/13
jan/14
mar/14
mai/14
jul/14
set/14
Milhões
BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES
EVOLUÇÃO DO NÚMERO DE BRASILEIROS NAS CLASSES A, B E C - MÉDIA MÓVEL DE 12
Fonte:
IBGEAND C - 12-MONTHS
A,B
MOVING AVERAGE
MESES
Elaboração: Bradesco
126.0
86.0
18
127.35
119.95
116.0
SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE,
BRADESCO
122.82
118.90
106.0
106.86
98.74
96.0
86.10
79.15
76.0
BRAZILIAN SOCIAL CLASSES, IN MILLION PEOPLE
70%
CLASSE A: R$ 7.006 OU MAIS
2000
CLASSE B: DE R$ 4.635 A R$ 7.006
2010
60%
58.9%
2020*
53.2%
CLASSE D: DE R$ 701 A R$ 1.159
CLASSE E: ATÉ R$ 701
50%
40%
CLASSE C: DE R$ 1.159 A R$ 4.635
37.9%
33.3%
30%
20%
20.0%
18.4%
17.9%
16.3%
11.9%
10%
3.8%
5.7%
7.9%
5.0% 4.8% 5.1%
00%
Classe E
19
SOURCE: IBGE; BRADESCO
Classe D
Classe C
Classe B
Classe A
Fonte e projeção: Conab Elaboração: Bradesco
em mil toneladas
Produção Nacional de Grãos - 1991 - 2015
BRAZILIAN GRAIN PRODUCTION 1991 - 2015
EM MIL TON
210.000
201.555
193.461
188.658
190.000
170.000
162.803
150.000
144.137
149.255
131.751
130.000
123.168
113.898
110.000
100.267
96.761
90.000
76.035
70.000
81.065
83.030
78.427
68.400
57.901
50.000
20
SOURCE AND FORECAST: CONAB, USDA, BRADESCO
* Projeção
14/15*
13/14
12/13
11/12
10/11
09/10
08/09
07/08
06/07
05/06
04/05
03/04
02/03
01/02
00/01
99/00
98/99
97/98
96/97
95/96
94/95
93/94
92/93
91/92
90/91
30.000
Assuming that the fiscal adjustment in
question also includes a realignment of
prices, inflation should rise temporarily, with
the pressure concentrated on administered
prices in particular. This leads us to foresee
the Amplified Consumer Price Index (local
acronym IPCA) rising by 6.4% and 6.8% in
these two years.
21
IPCA
ANUAL 2005 –
2014* (NOVA
AGREGAÇÃO
E NOVA POF)
CONSUMER
PRICE
INDEX
(IPCA) – ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE
8,0%
6,80%
7,0%
6,0%
6,50%
5,91%
5,90%
5,69%
6,42%
5,84%
5,91%
5,20%
5,0%
4,46%
4,31%
4,0%
3,14%
3,0%
2,0%
1,0%
0,0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
2012
2013
2014*
2015*
2016*
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – ADMINISTERED PRICES - ANNUAL
ADMINISTRADOS
ANUAL 2005
– 2014* (NOVA AGREGAÇÃO E NOVA POF)
PERCENT CHANGE
– 2005-2016
10,0%
9,0%
8,96%
8,10%
8,0%
7,0%
6,20%
6,0%
5,70%
4,73%
5,0%
4,72%
4,27%
4,0%
3,67%
3,27%
3,13%
3,0%
2,0%
1,65%
1,52%
1,0%
0,0%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
2013
2014*
2015*
2016*
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – DURABLE GOODS PRICES - ANNUAL
PERCENT CHANGE – 2002-2016
4,00%
3,61%
3,06%
2,83%
3,00%
2,03%
2,00%
0,94%
1,00%
0,00%
-0,05%
-0,01%
-1,00%
-2,00%
-1,55%
-1,75%
-1,89%
-3,00%
-3,47%
-4,00%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
2012
2013
2014*
2015*
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA) – SERVICE PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT
Serviços no IPCA
CHANGE – 2002-2016
12,0%
9,79%
10,0%
8,74%
8,10%
8,73%
8,26%
8,02%
8,0%
7,56%
7,32%
6,66%
6,0%
6,77%
5,54%
7,06%
6,73%
5,72%
5,79%
2006
2007
4,86%
4,0%
2,0%
0,0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
2011
2012
2013
2014*
2015*
2016*
ALIMENTAÇÃO
DOMICÍLIO ANUAL
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (IPCA)
– FOOD
PRICES - ANNUAL PERCENT
CHANGE – 2005-2016
22.0%
19.46%
20.0%
18.0%
16.0%
14.0%
12.0%
10.0%
10.77% 11.12%
10.39%
9.86%
9.63%
8.48%
7.48%
8.0%
7.19%
7.65%
7.84%
2014*
2015*
7.00%
6.0%
3.87%
4.0%
3.17%
1.99%
2.0%
1.23%
0.0%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
SOURCE: IBGE, BC, BRADESCO
2011
2012
2013
2016*
OUTLOOK FOR
INTEREST RATE
AND EXCHANGE
RATE
27
27
The combination of a fiscal and monetary
tightening to face up to these challenges
means that Brazil's base interest rate,
known as the Selic, is set to rise to 12.5%
next year, with the primary surplus coming
to 1.2% of GDP, as indicated by the new
proposed 2015 budget.
Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST
RATE
(SELIC)
2008-2015
Taxa nominal
de juros
(Selic). Fonte:
BC
13,75%
14,0%
13,00%
12,75%
13,0%
12,50%
12,50%
12,00%
12,0%11,75%
11,25%
11,25%
11,0%
11,00%
10,75%
10,25%
10,50%
10,50%
10,00%
10,25%
10,0%
9,75%
9,50%
9,50%
9,00%
8,75%
8,75%
9,0%
11,75%
11,25%
11,00%
10,75%
9,00%
8,50%
8,00%
8,0%
8,50%
8,00%
7,25%
7,0%
29
SOURCE: BCB
FORECAST: BRADESCO
dez-15
set-15
jun-15
mar-15
dez-14
set-14
jun-14
mar-14
dez-13
set-13
jun-13
mar-13
dez-12
set-12
jun-12
mar-12
dez-11
set-11
jun-11
mar-11
dez-10
set-10
jun-10
mar-10
dez-09
set-09
jun-09
mar-09
dez-08
set-08
jun-08
mar-08
6,0%
PRIMARY SURPLUS AS
% OF PRIMÁRIO
GDP 2001-2015
SUPERÁVIT
EM % DO PIB buy side
4.0%
3.5%
3.7%
3.4%
3.2%
3.8%
3.3%
3.2%
3.3%
3.4%
3.1%
3.0%
2.7%
2.4%
2.5%
2.0%
2.0%
1.9%
1.5%
1.2%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
2015
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2006
SOURCE: BACEN
2014
-0.2%
-0.5%
The exchange rate will respond to this domestic
situation with more positive expectations and
higher interest rates but will also reflect the
appreciation of the dollar at global level and the
accommodation of commodity prices. As a result,
the Real will end this year at R$/US$ 2.65 and
reach R$/US$ 2.75 by the end of next year.
29/12/09
29/01/10
28/02/10
31/03/10
30/04/10
31/05/10
30/06/10
31/07/10
31/08/10
30/09/10
31/10/10
30/11/10
31/12/10
31/01/11
28/02/11
31/03/11
30/04/11
31/05/11
30/06/11
31/07/11
31/08/11
30/09/11
31/10/11
30/11/11
31/12/11
31/01/12
29/02/12
31/03/12
30/04/12
31/05/12
30/06/12
31/07/12
31/08/12
30/09/12
31/10/12
30/11/12
31/12/12
31/01/13
28/02/13
31/03/13
30/04/13
31/05/13
30/06/13
31/07/13
31/08/13
30/09/13
31/10/13
30/11/13
31/12/13
31/01/14
28/02/14
31/03/14
30/04/14
31/05/14
30/06/14
31/07/14
31/08/14
30/09/14
31/10/14
30/11/14
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2009 - 2015
2,85
2,65
2,45
1,65
32
DECEMBER 2008
R$ 2.34 / US$
DECEMBER 2009
R$ 1.74 / US$
DECEMBER 2010
R$ 1.67 / US$
DECEMBER 2011
R$ 1.88 / US$
1,73
1,45
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORECAST: BRADESCO
DECEMBER 2012
R$ 2.04 / US$
DECEMBER 2013
R$ 2.34 / US$
DECEMBER 2014
R$ 2.65 / US$
DECEMBER 2015
R$ 2.75 / US$
2,05
1,86
1,88
1,91
1,64
1,65
1,72
1,88
1,85
2,74
2,70
2,61
2,46
2,25
2,08
2,03
1,99
2,12
2,04
2,44
2,33
2,25
2,36
2,14
2,25
2,15
1,95
1,74
1,69
1,54
2,56
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2000 - 2015
Taxa de câmbio - R$ / US$ - Final de ano. Fonte: BCB
3,8
3,53
3,2
2,89
2,75
2,65
2,65
2,6
2,34
2,32
2,35
2,34
2,14
2
2,04
1,96
1,88
1,77
1,74
1,67
1,4
33
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0,8
TRADE BALANCE 1995 - 2015
US$ BILLION
55.000
50.000
44.703
45.000
46.457
40.032
40.000
33.641
35.000
29.807
30.000
24.836 25.290
24.794
25.000
20.147
19.395
20.000
13.121
15.000
10.000
5.000
2.650
4.098
2.561
0
-1.199 -698
-5.000
-10.000
-2.587
-6.575
34
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
-15.000
BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION)
20.000
11.679 13.985 13.643
4.177
1.551
0
-1.811
-7.637
-20.000
-18.384
-23.502
-24.225 -23.215
-25.335
-30.452
-33.416
-40.000
-24.302
-28.192
-47.273
-52.480
-54.283
-60.000
-68.004
-68.650
-76.363
-80.000
-81.379
-77.984
-88.229
35
SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
-100.000
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT – US$ million
80.000
70.000
66.660 65.272
63.996
61.500
60.000
48.506
50.000
45.058
40.000
34.585
32.779
30.000
28.856 28.578
25.949
22.457
20.000
18.822
18.146
16.590
15.066
10.144
10.000
SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO
36
2014*
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0
DEPEC-BRADESCO: MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO
-0.3
4.31
-1.7
8.75
-7.1
8.1
2.00
1.74
153.0
127.6
25.4
-24.3
-1.6
239.1
25.9
246.4
61.9
2.0
42.1
15.1
7.5
5.91
11.3
10.75
10.2
6.7
1.76
1.67
201.9
181.8
20.1
-47.3
-2.2
288.6
48.5
279.5
79.6
2.7
39.1
20.6
2.7
6.50
5.1
11.00
0.4
6.0
1.67
1.88
256.0
226.2
29.8
-52.5
-2.1
352.0
66.7
334.0
111.1
3.1
36.4
18.8
1.0
5.84
7.8
7.25
-2.3
5.5
1.95
2.04
242.6
223.1
19.4
-54.2
-2.4
378.6
65.3
301.2
112.0
2.4
35.3
16.4
2.5
5.91
5.5
10.00
2.0
5.4
2.16
2.35
242.2
239.6
2.6
-81.4
-3.7
373.5
64.0
287.6
108.7
1.9
33.8
14.7
0.2
6.40
3.6
11.75
-2.5
4.9
2.35
2.65
225.5
228.1
-2.6
-88.2
-4.0
379.1
61.5
291.4
77.3
-0.2
36.6
11.2
0.5
6.81
5.0
12.50
0.2
5.7
2.70
2.75
207.7
203.6
4.1
-76.4
-3.7
384.8
64.0
272.8
70.6
1.2
37.0
11.2
2016-2020
(average)
3.4
4.7
5.0
10.09%
3.1%
5.5%
2.95
2.99
270.1
240.8
29.3
-70.3
-2.9%
408.5
73.3
n/a
n/a
2.3
37.8
9.6
15.9%
1.6%
20.5%
13.2%
13.2%
20.1%
10.2%
17.0%
7.6%
8.0%
5.0%
5.4%
5.0%
5.4%
6.9%
5.6%
2009
GDP%
CPI (IPCA) %
WPI (IGP-M) %
Nominal rates (Selic)
Industrial Production %
Unemployment rate %
BRL (R/US$) average
BRL (R/US$) eop
Exports (US$ Bn)
Imports (US$ Bn)
Trade balance (US$ Bn)
Current account (US$ Bn)
Current account % of GDP
International Reserves (US$ Bn)
FDI (US$ Bn)
CRB (Average)
Crude Oil (WTI US$/b) - Average
Fiscal balance % of GDP
Net Public debt % of GDP
Credit outstanding %YoY
Non-performing loans
Households
Companies
37
2010
2011
Estimation based on information available until 29th December, 2014
2012
2013
2014
2015
WWW.ECONOMIAEMDIA.COM.BR
DEPEC - BRADESCO does not accept responsibility for any actions/decisions that may be taken based on the information provided in its publications
and projections. All the data and opinions contained in these information bulletins is carefully checked and drawn up by fully qualified professionals, but
it should not be used, under any hypothesis, as the basis, support, guidance or norm for any document, valuations, judgments or decision taking,
whether of a formal or informal nature. Therefore, we emphasize that all the consequences and responsibility for using any data or analysis contained in
this publication is assumed exclusively by the user, exempting BRADESCO from all responsibility for any actions resulting from the usage of this
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content in this report (partially or in full) is strictly forbidden except if authorized by BRADESCO or if the sources (the name of the authors, publication
and BRADESCO) are strictly mentioned.
Updated 15th December, 2014