macroeconomic outlook

MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK
CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL OUTLOOK,
DEEPER EXCHANGE-RATE
DEPRECIATION AND SLOWER
DOMESTIC
Economic Research Department - DEPEC
CRESCIMENTO ANUAL DO PIB BRASILEIRO - % - 1984 - 2013
Fonte: IBGE e IPEA
Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco
BRAZILIAN GDP – ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
1984 - 2014
9.0
7.8
7.5
7.0
10 YEARS
Média dos 11 anos:
AVERAGE:
3,6%
20 YEARS
Média dos 20 anos
anteriores:
2,7% 2.7%
AVERAGE:
5.4
3.6%
5.0
3.5
6.1
5.7
5.3
4.7
7.5
5.2
4.4
4.0
4.3
3.4
3.2
3.2
2.7
3.0
2.7
2.4
2.1
1.3
1.0
1.0
1.1
2.5
0.9
0.0 0.3
-0.1
-1.0
-0.3
-0.5
-3.0
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2014*
2013*
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
2
1990
-4.3
-5.0
THE KEY CHALLENGES OF
BRAZILIAN ECONOMY:
DEMOGRAPHY, LABOR
MARKET AND EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT
3
3
LOW UNEMPLOYMENT IN
BRAZIL IS FUNDAMENTALLY
EXPLAINED BY
DEMOGRAPHIC ISSUES
LABOR SUPPLY GROWTHS
TOO SLOWLY
4
Milhões
BRAZILIAN POPULATION: TOTAL, WORKING AGE, LABOR FORCE
(SUPPLY), EMPLOYED POPULATION (DEMAND) AND
2011
UNEMPLOYED IN MILLION PEOPLE
252
202
195,2
166,6
152
100,0
102
93,3
52
Total
Population
2
5
Work Force
Supply
Demand
6,7
Unemployed
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
6
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
1.55%
jul/13
abr/13
jan/13
3.49%
out/12
jul/12
abr/12
2.01%
jan/12
1.0%
out/11
jul/11
abr/11
jan/11
3.38%
out/10
jul/10
abr/10
jan/10
0.62%
out/09
jul/09
abr/09
jan/09
2.0%
out/08
jul/08
1.67%
abr/08
jan/08
out/07
jul/07
abr/07
jan/07
out/06
jul/06
abr/06
jan/06
out/05
jul/05
BRAZILIAN LABOR MARKET: SUPPLY AND DEMAND
(12-MONTHS CHANGE)
4.0%
Demand
Supply
3.0%
2.61%
2.04%
1.80%
1.77%
1.43%
1.22%
0.73%
0.0%
BRAZILIAN POPULATION AGED BETWEEN 18 AND 24
Milhões
18 a 24 anos
24
23,6
22,9
23
23,1
23,4 23,3
23,4
22,9
22,5
22,4
22,1
22
21,8
21
21,9
21,7
21,5
21,4
20,7
20,1
20
19,2 19,3
19
18,4
18
17
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000* 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010* 2011 2012* 2013* 2014*
7
SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
POPULATION RATE OF GROWTH – WORLD AND BRAZIL
FONTE: BANCO MUNDIAL
Crescimento populacional anual - Brasil projeção
3,2%
2,96%
BRAZIL
Brasil
WORLD
Mundo
2,8%
2,43%
2,4%
2,13%
2,07%
2,08%
2,0%
1,80%
1,53%
1,6%
1,54%
1,43%
1,2%
1,14%
1,21%
1,15%
0,87%
0,8%
0,57%
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012*
2013*
2014*
2015*
2016*
2017*
2018*
2019*
2020*
0,4%
8
SOURCE: WORLD BANK, BRADESCO
TAXA DE DESEMPREGO
Fonte: IBGE
BRAZILIAN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE – SIX MAJOR
METROPOLITAN AREAS ANNUAL AVERAGE (2005 – 2014)
11.0
10.0
9.9
10.0
9.3
9.0
7.9
8.0
8.1
7.0
6.7
6.0
6.0
5.8
5.5
5.6
9
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
5.0
BRAZILIAN NET CREATION OF FORMAL JOB – ‘000 INDIVIDUAL
JOBS
GERAÇÃO LÍQUIDA DE EMPREGO FORMAL
1996 - 2013. Fonte: Caged. Elaboração e projeções (*): Bradesco
Em postos de trabalho
2,500
2,137
2,000
1,617
1,523
1,566
1,452
1,500
1,254 1,229
995
1,000
658
650
645
591
856
868
762
500
0
-36
-500
-196
-271
-582
10
SOURCE: CAGED
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2014*
2013*
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-1,000
BRAZILIAN REAL
WAGESMÉDIO
– ANNUAL
RATE OF
CHANGE
RENDIMENTO
REAL - CRESCIMENTO
ANUAL
Fonte: IBGE
Elaboração: Bradesco
5.0%
4.1%
4.0%
4.0%
3.8%
3.2%
3.4%
3.2%
3.0%
2.7%
2.5%
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.0%
-1.0%
-1.3%
-2.0%
2004
11
2005
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL
WAGESNOMINAIS
ADJUSTMENTS
– BRADESCO
REAJUSTES SALARIAIS
– PESQUISA PROPRIETÁRIA
– TODOS OS
SETORES AGREGADOS
SURVEY – ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
Pesquisa Proprietária
10.0
9.71 9.70
9.30 9.31
9.19
9.08
8.87
8.72
8.52
8.45
8.28
8.0
8.25
8.11
8.08
8.04
8.64
8.53
8.30
8.10 8.06
8.07 8.13
7.77
7.62
7.43
7.36
7.22
7.23
7.08
7.08
6.76
6.57
6.17
6.13
6.0
12
SOURCE: MBA / BRADESCO
ago/13
jul/13
jun/13
mai/13
abr/13
mar/13
fev/13
jan/13
dez/12
nov/12
out/12
set/12
ago/12
jul/12
jun/12
mai/12
abr/12
mar/12
fev/12
jan/12
dez/11
out/11
nov/11
set/11
jul/11
ago/11
jun/11
mai/11
abr/11
mar/11
fev/11
jan/11
dez/10
nov/10
out/10
set/10
ago/10
jul/10
jun/10
mai/10
abr/10
fev/10
mar/10
jan/10
4.0
INDUSTRY THAT WAS NOT
ALREADY COMPETITIVE WAS
NOT PREPARED FOR
INCREASED COSTS OF
WAGES.
BESIDES THIS, GLOBAL
DEMAND ACCOMODATED IN A
SLOWER PACE OF GROWTH
13
14
SOURCE: BLS, BRADESCO
Brazil
100%
Slovakia
80%
Singapore
Czech Republic
57.9%
Australia
Estonia
60%
Israel
Philippines
47.7%
Japan
New Zealand
Switzerland
Norway
Poland
Denmark
Sweden
31.0%
Hungary
40%
Greece
Ireland
27.9% 28.9%
Spain
Portugal
Belgium
Austria
Canada
23.0% 25.3%
Italy
Finland
France
Netherlands
Germany
United States
Taiwan
20%
Mexico
Korea, Republic of
United Kingdom
PERCENT CHANGES IN HOURLY COMPENSATION COSTS IN
MANUFACTURING, US$, 2006-2011
2006-2011
94.5%
79.4%
61.0%
49.3%
42.9%
33.8% 35.2%
16.0%
8.9%
0%
-1.5%
-20%
mai/05
jul/05
set/05
nov/05
jan/06
mar/06
mai/06
jul/06
set/06
nov/06
jan/07
mar/07
mai/07
jul/07
set/07
nov/07
jan/08
mar/08
mai/08
jul/08
set/08
nov/08
jan/09
mar/09
mai/09
jul/09
set/09
nov/09
jan/10
mar/10
mai/10
jul/10
set/10
nov/10
jan/11
mar/11
mai/11
jul/11
set/11
nov/11
jan/12
mar/12
mai/12
jul/12
set/12
nov/12
jan/13
mar/13
mai/13
jul/13
BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURING EXPORTS – QUANTUM, INDEX
NUMBER – 12 MONTHS MOVING AVERAGE
2006 = 100
110
105
100
15
102.1
98.1
99.8
85
SOURCE: FUNCEX, BRADESCO
103.6
100.8
98.1
95
90
84.7
83.2
80.6
84.7
84.2
82.6
84.2
82.2
80
75
75.7
70
65
60
BRAZILIAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (ANNUAL RATE OF
CHANGE)
Fonte: IBGE
PRODUÇÃO INDUSTRIAL - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL
10.5%
11.0%
8.3%
7.0%
3.1%
2.8%
2.6%
2.7%
2014
3.1%
2.7%
2013
3.0%
6.0%
0.4%
0.1%
-1.0%
-2.6%
-5.0%
-7.4%
16
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
-9.0%
AS A RESULT, HIGH WAGES WILL
KEEP CONSUMPTION
INCREASING.
BESIDES THIS, IMPROVEMENT IN
SOCIAL MOBILILITY
ACCUMULATED OVER THE LAST
YEARS SUSTAIN FAMILY
DEMAND FOR GOODS AND
SERVICE.
17
BRAZILIAN RETAIL SALES – INCLUIDING AUTO AND BUILDING
VOLUME DE(ANNUAL
VENDAS DO COMÉRCIO
INCLUINDO CARROS E MATERIAL DE
MATERIALS
RATEVAREJISTA
OF CHANGE)
CONSTRUÇÃO (PMC AMPLIADA) - CRESCIMENTO ANUAL 2005 - 2012
Fonte: IBGE Elaboração e Projeção: Bradesco
15.0%
13.6%
12.2%
12.0%
9.9%
9.0%
8.0%
6.8%
6.4%
6.6%
6.0%
3.8%
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
18
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
0.0%
jul/04
set/04
nov/04
jan/05
mar/05
mai/05
jul/05
set/05
nov/05
jan/06
mar/06
mai/06
jul/06
set/06
nov/06
jan/07
mar/07
mai/07
jul/07
set/07
nov/07
jan/08
mar/08
mai/08
jul/08
set/08
nov/08
jan/09
mar/09
mai/09
jul/09
set/09
nov/09
jan/10
mar/10
mai/10
jul/10
set/10
nov/10
jan/11
mar/11
mai/11
jul/11
set/11
nov/11
jan/12
mar/12
mai/12
jul/12
set/12
nov/12
jan/13
mar/13
mai/13
jul/13
Milhões
BRAZILIAN SOCIAL MOBILITY: NUMBER OF PEOPLE IN CLASSES
milhões
ClassesAVERAGE
ABC
Fonte:
IBGEAND CEm
A,B
12-MONTHS
MOVING
Elaboração: Bradesco
127.0
85.0
19
126.118
121.0
115.0
109.0
103.0
97.0
91.0
SOURCE: PME, PNAD/IBGE,
BRADESCO
129.103
120.353
117.873
111.907
106.200
99.760
97.109
88.178
80.617
79.0
73.0
INFLATION
BEHAVIOUR WILL
DEPEND ON:
FOOD, SERVICES
AND PASS THROUGH
20
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND SERVICE INFLATION
CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004
2004 - 2013
120.0%
112.2%
Nominal income
100.0%
96.3%
Services inflation
86.7%
76.8%
80.0%
69.5%
60.0%
56.1%
49.7%
40.0%
36.3%
26.2%
21
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
jul/13
abr/13
jan/13
out/12
jul/12
abr/12
jan/12
out/11
jul/11
abr/11
jan/11
out/10
jul/10
abr/10
jan/10
out/09
jul/09
abr/09
jan/09
out/08
jul/08
abr/08
jan/08
out/07
jul/07
jan/07
out/06
19.8%
jul/06
abr/06
jan/06
out/05
jul/05
jan/05
3.1%
out/04
jul/04
0.0%
abr/05
14.8%
abr/07
20.0%
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INCOME AND DURABLE GOODS INFLATION
CONSUMER PRICES INDEX - HIKE ACCUMULATED SINCE JAN/2004
2004 - 2013
115.0%
nominal income
112.24%
durable goods
96.25%
95.0%
95.05%
85.01%
72.07%
75.0%
74.86%
55.0%
60.93%
49.73%
34.85%
35.0%
23.28%
11.13%
15.0%
25.72%
8.38%
9.32%
8.40%
5.28%
7.09%
1.33%
7.23%
22
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
jul/13
abr/13
jan/13
out/12
jul/12
abr/12
jan/12
out/11
jul/11
abr/11
jan/11
out/10
jul/10
abr/10
jan/10
out/09
jul/09
abr/09
jan/09
out/08
jul/08
abr/08
jan/08
out/07
jul/07
abr/07
jan/07
out/06
jul/06
abr/06
jan/06
out/05
jul/05
abr/05
jan/05
out/04
jul/04
-5.0%
3.64%
3.10%
BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX – FOOD COMPONENT
(12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE)
12M
20.00%
18.5%
18.00%
15.7%
16.00%
13.4%
13.3%
14.00%
12.00%11.2%
11.9%
10.8%
10.7%
10.6%
9.8%
10.00%
10.0%
9.8%
8.00%
6.7%
6.00%
6.2%
4.00%
4.5%
2.3%
2.00%
0.9%
1.6%
2.3%
23
SOURCE: IBGE, BRADESCO
ago/13
jun/13
abr/13
fev/13
dez/12
out/12
ago/12
jun/12
abr/12
fev/12
dez/11
out/11
ago/11
jun/11
abr/11
fev/11
dez/10
out/10
ago/10
jun/10
abr/10
fev/10
dez/09
out/09
ago/09
jun/09
abr/09
fev/09
dez/08
out/08
ago/08
jun/08
abr/08
fev/08
dez/07
out/07
ago/07
0.00%
24
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
nov/13
set/13
jul/13
mai/13
6.87%
mar/13
jan/13
nov/12
set/12
jul/12
mai/12
mar/12
jan/12
nov/11
set/11
7.5%
jul/11
mai/11
mar/11
jan/11
nov/10
set/10
jul/10
mai/10
5.5%
mar/10
jan/10
nov/09
set/09
jul/09
mai/09
mar/09
jan/09
nov/08
set/08
6.5%
jul/08
mai/08
jan/08
mar/08
BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
12-MONTHS PERCENT CHANGE
8.5%
7.23%
6.70%
6.41%
5.84%
6.05%
5.22%
4.5%
4.92%
4.84%
4.17%
3.5%
2.5%
IPCA ANUAL – 2002-2013*
BRAZILIAN CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (IPCA) - 2002-2014*
14.0%
12.53%
12.0%
10.0%
9.30%
7.60%
8.0%
4.46%
4.0%
5.84%
6.05%
2013*
5.69%
6.0%
2012
6.50%
5.91%
5.90%
5.60%
4.31%
3.14%
2.0%
25
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2014*
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
0.0%
PRODUCTIVITY MUST
INCREASE IN BRAZIL
GAP BETWEEN SUPPLY AND
DEMAND WILL BE CLOSED
WITH SUPPLY EXPANSION,
LABOR FORCE QUALIFICATION
AND INFRASTRUCTURE
GROWTH
26
INVESTMENTS – FROM BRAZILIAN GDP FIGURES (ANNUAL
RATE OF CHANGE)
24.0
21.3
21.0
18.0
13.9
15.0
12.0
8.7
9.0
9.8
9.1
5.0
6.0
3.0
13.6
1.5
5.0
4.7
3.6
4.0
0.4
0.0
-0.3
-3.0
-6.0
-5.2
-4.0
-4.6
-6.7
-9.0
-8.2
27
27
SOURCE: IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2014 (p)
2013 (p)
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
-12.0
BRAZILIAN AVERAGE SCHOOLING YEARS
Média por Ano - 25
PEOPLE AGED 25 OR MORE
8,8
8,6
8,3
7,8
7,5
7,2
7,3
2010*
7,3
2009
7,4
7,0
6,8
6,8
6,7
6,5
6,4
6,2
6,3
6,1
5,9
28
SOURCE: PNAD/IBGE
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2020*
2012*
2011
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
5,8
OUTLOOK FOR
INTEREST RATE
AND EXCHANGE
RATE
29
29
Cenário básico para a taxa de juros - Selic
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL INTEREST RATE (SELIC) 2008-2014
13.75%
14.0%
13.00%
12.75%
13.0%
12.50%
12.00%
12.0% 11.75%
11.50%
11.25%
11.25%
11.0%
10.75%
10.25%
10.50%
10.25%
10.0%
9.75%
9.50%
9.00%
8.75%8.75%
9.0%
9.75%
9.00%
8.50%
8.00%
8.0%
9.75%
8.50%
8.00%
7.25%
7.0%
30
SOURCE: BCB
FORECAST: BRADESCO
dez-14
set-14
jun-14
mar-14
dez-13
set-13
jun-13
mar-13
dez-12
set-12
jun-12
mar-12
dez-11
set-11
jun-11
mar-11
dez-10
set-10
jun-10
mar-10
dez-09
set-09
jun-09
mar-09
dez-08
set-08
jun-08
mar-08
6.0%
06/09/09
06/10/09
06/11/09
06/12/09
06/01/10
06/02/10
06/03/10
06/04/10
06/05/10
06/06/10
06/07/10
06/08/10
06/09/10
06/10/10
06/11/10
06/12/10
06/01/11
06/02/11
06/03/11
06/04/11
06/05/11
06/06/11
06/07/11
06/08/11
06/09/11
06/10/11
06/11/11
06/12/11
06/01/12
06/02/12
06/03/12
06/04/12
06/05/12
06/06/12
06/07/12
06/08/12
06/09/12
06/10/12
06/11/12
06/12/12
06/01/13
06/02/13
06/03/13
06/04/13
06/05/13
06/06/13
06/07/13
06/08/13
06/09/13
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2009 - 2013
2.45
2.25
31
DECEMBER 2008
R$ 2.34 / US$
DECEMBER 2009
R$ 1.74 / US$
DECEMBER 2010
R$ 1.67 / US$
1.88
1.65 1.71
1.73
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORECAST: BRADESCO
DECEMBER 2011
R$ 1.88 / US$
DECEMBER 2012
R$ 2.04 / US$
DECEMBER 2013
R$ 2.30 / US$
1.87
1.63
1.65
2.45
2.26
2.08
1.90
1.87
1.69
2.09
2.05
1.99
2.11
2.13
2.04
1.95
1.85
1.73
1.70
1.53
1.45
2.30
BRAZILIAN NOMINAL EXCHANGE RATE - R$/US$ 2000 - 2014
Taxa de Câm bio (final de ano) - 2003 - 2012- R$/US$ - Fonte: BCB Projeções Bradesco
R$/US$
3.8
3.53
3.2
2.89
2.65
2.34
2.14
2
2.30
2.35
2014
2.34
2.32
2013
2.6
2.04
1.96
1.88
1.77
1.74
1.67
1.4
32
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
0.8
26/09/09
26/10/09
25/11/09
25/12/09
24/01/10
23/02/10
25/03/10
24/04/10
24/05/10
23/06/10
23/07/10
22/08/10
21/09/10
21/10/10
20/11/10
20/12/10
19/01/11
18/02/11
20/03/11
19/04/11
19/05/11
18/06/11
18/07/11
17/08/11
16/09/11
16/10/11
15/11/11
15/12/11
14/01/12
13/02/12
14/03/12
13/04/12
13/05/12
12/06/12
12/07/12
11/08/12
10/09/12
10/10/12
09/11/12
09/12/12
08/01/13
07/02/13
09/03/13
08/04/13
08/05/13
07/06/13
07/07/13
06/08/13
05/09/13
TAXA DE JUROS DO TÍTULO DE 10 ANOS DO TESOURO AMERICANO 2006- 2013. Fonte:
US TREASURIES
– 10 YEARS 2009- 2013
Bloomberg
4.20
Em %
3.70
2.20
33
3.826
3.549
3.385
3.20
2.864
3.179
2.792
2.70
1.70
1.20
SOURCE: BLOOMBERG, BRADESCO
2.880 2.994
2.739
2.219
2.269
2.383
2.484
2.165
1.938
1.668
2.048
1.615
1.663
1.508
CHINESE GDP
– ANNUAL RATE OF CHANGE
China: crescimento anual do PIB (variação interanual).
Fonte: Bloomberg
1981 - 2014
Elaboração e projeções: Bradesco
16.0
15.2
14.2
14.0
13.2
12.0
14.2
14.0
13.1
11.511.3
11.2
12.7
11.3
10.9
10.0
9.3
9.3
9.2
7.8 7.6
8.0
9.6
9.1
8.5
6.0
10.4
10.1
10.0
9.3
9.2
8.4 8.3
7.8
7.3
6.9
5.2
4.1
4.0
3.8
2.0
3434
SOURCE: CEIC
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
0.0
BRAZILIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT (IN USD MILLION)
18,000
13,985 13,643
11,679
9,000
4,177
1,551
0
-1,811
-9,000
-7,637
-18,000
-18,384
-23,502
-27,000
-24,225-23,215
-25,335
-24,302
-28,192
-30,452
-33,416
-36,000
-2,1%
GDP
-45,000
-2,4%
GDP
-47,273
-54,000
-52,480
-54,246
-63,000
-3,4%
GDP
-72,000
2014
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
SOURCE: BCB, BRADESCO
FORECAST: BRADESCO
2013
-76,561
-76,341
-81,000
35
-3,4%
GDP
DEPEC-BRADESCO: MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO
2010
2011
-0.3
4.3
-1.7
8.75%
-7.4%
8.1
2.00
1.74
153.0
127.6
25.4
-24.3
-1.6%
239.1
25.9
246.0
61.9
2.0
42.1
15.2
7.5
5.9
11.3
10.75%
10.5%
6.7
1.76
1.67
201.9
181.8
20.1
-47.3
-2.3%
288.6
48.5
278.2
79.6
2.7
39.1
20.6
2.7
6.5
5.1
11.00%
0.4%
6.0
1.67
1.88
256.0
226.2
29.8
-52.5
-2.1%
352.0
66.7
334.3
111.1
3.1
36.4
19.0
0.9
5.8
7.8
7.25%
-2.6%
5.5
1.95
2.04
242.6
223.1
19.4
-54.2
-2.4%
378.6
65.3
301.3
112.0
2.4
35.1
16.2
2.4
6.1
5.0
9.75%
2.6%
5.6
2.16
2.30
238.1
233.0
5.1
-76.6
-3.4%
382.4
55.0
302.6
106.6
1.7
34.3
14.0
2.5
5.6
5.0
9.75%
2.7%
5.8
2.33
2.35
252.2
246.2
6.0
-76.1
-3.4%
388.1
58.9
314.5
n/a
0.9
35.3
13.0
2015-2020
(average)
3.3
4.7
4.5
9.75%
3.1%
5.5%
2.49
2.57
346.2
321.4
24.8
-63.6
-2.4%
443.1
71.3
n/a
n/a
2.1
31.0
10.7
7.7%
3.8%
5.7%
3.5%
7.4%
3.9%
7.9%
4.0%
6.5%
3.8%
7.1%
4.2%
5.8%
2.9%
2009
GDP%
CPI (IPCA) %
WPI (IGP-M) %
Nominal rates (Selic)
Industrial Production %
Unemployment rate %
BRL (R/US$) average
BRL (R/US$) eop
Exports (US$ Bn)
Imports (US$ Bn)
Trade balance (US$ Bn)
Current account (US$ Bn)
Current account % of GDP
International Reserves (US$ Bn)
FDI (US$ Bn)
CRB (Average)
Crude Oil (Brent US$/b) - Average
Fiscal balance % of GDP
Net Public debt % of GDP
Credit outstanding %YoY
Non-performing loans
Individuals
Companies
36
Estimation based on information available until 6th September, 2013
2012
2013
2014
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Updated 6th September, 2013